Below are my thoughts from the comment section of the prior thread. Nothing has changed, so I’ll post them here.

Didn’t get to see Utah last night, but under KW I just assume they will be well coached, disciplined, and physical. Has anything changed? If not, then they have the advantage. Always assumed this was a loss. I think we can be in the game and possibly steal it, though, given October in Corvallis has a feel to it and there should be some electricity in the crowd. Just not sure the Beavs know how to stay in a game like this and ultimately finish it if they do have a lead. Beavs seem on par with the PAC physically at this point, but mentally what I saw vs WSU was weakness. Next step is overcoming that.

I’m going to say Utah wins by 17. Something like 31-14.

Go Beavs.

Anything goes.

A point I forgot to make in the prior post was that the Beavs players almost seemed to think WSU was going to lay over for them. Player X seemed to stand around thinking Player Y would make the play. Saw this over and over. Worth discussing. How and why does this happen? On the coaches? On the players?

Go Beavs.

Well, I had 31-28 Cougs…saw this coming.

But I didn’t see how. With the past few games Smith seemed to be out of the way. He’s back in the way of his own team.

As I wrote on Twitter: 9th loss in the @Coach_Smith era that’s directly on Smith for not punting (twice this game) on 4th down. Something that doesn’t show up in the probabilities is how demoralizing that is for a team, fatigue on the D, etc. All came home to roost. #GoBeavs

At this point, we have to assume this is a programming flaw in his brain. He doesn’t understand it’s not just the odds that a sheet of paper shows, but it’s game flow, fatigue, morale, etc. We’re also, frankly, not very good at making it. So whatever the probabilities say, we’re not there in his tenure.

The time to win the game was early in the game, on the very boring, pedantic punts that would have kept the defense fresh. Yeah, they aren’t sexy, but they’re 45 yard swings that keep you in games until you get better opportunities later to score. A punt is simply an admittance that “this is not the best opportunity for my team to score,” which is FINE. If it’s not a great opportunity to score, then ripping off 45 yards on a punt increases the odds of a win.

Again, Smith will never realize this. Smith apologists will never admit his in-game 4th down management smells like a gorilla’s ass, but it is what it is, and over time the truth as always will win out. Smith has done a great job building the program, but he officially has a win cap due to his 4th down liabilities. Personally I’d love to see someone who is mentally stable and understands risk management inherit what Smith built. I know we’re not at that point, so all I can do is point out the obvious until people are willing to admit it to themselves, then come around.

WSU is always difficult for me to predict because they’re perennially the team the most like us. What I want to happen: Payback for the recent tough loses, and by payback I mean we score every possession and blow them out by 50. What I think will happen…

I do think Nolan and the offense will bounce back, but have a hunch something weird will happen (e.g. Special teams TD, safety, pick 6, fumble TD, miss a game winning FG, etc) that turns our recent good fortune. De Laura ran for 43 yards and a TD against us last year. It’s his highest career total to date. I know we have more depth and a better D, but it’s a concern of mine. Borghi will obviously be a pain to defend, and I’m sure they saw we couldn’t stop the wildcat. Away game. Beavs feeling high on life. All things considered it feels like a minor upset in the works.

Pick ’em with a slight lean to Cougs (I’d take the points if betting) due to all the above. Since people like prognosticators to man up and pick a score, the “gun to the head” pick would be 31-28 Cougs with a wide 7 point confidence interval. Meaning I could see as high as 38-28 Cougs or on the other end a close 24-28 Beav win.

I don’t have a strong feeling about this game either way. The idea the Beavs should be able to move the ball easily, yet that our D won’t be able to stop WSU easily, seems the most accurate to me.

Just not sure what kind of score that results in. I don’t see us getting many turnovers or sacks. I’ll say that keeps it close. I actually have a bad feeling about this game. Final prediction later this week as I read up on WSU.