Well, I had 31-28 Cougs…saw this coming.

But I didn’t see how. With the past few games Smith seemed to be out of the way. He’s back in the way of his own team.

As I wrote on Twitter: 9th loss in the @Coach_Smith era that’s directly on Smith for not punting (twice this game) on 4th down. Something that doesn’t show up in the probabilities is how demoralizing that is for a team, fatigue on the D, etc. All came home to roost. #GoBeavs

At this point, we have to assume this is a programming flaw in his brain. He doesn’t understand it’s not just the odds that a sheet of paper shows, but it’s game flow, fatigue, morale, etc. We’re also, frankly, not very good at making it. So whatever the probabilities say, we’re not there in his tenure.

The time to win the game was early in the game, on the very boring, pedantic punts that would have kept the defense fresh. Yeah, they aren’t sexy, but they’re 45 yard swings that keep you in games until you get better opportunities later to score. A punt is simply an admittance that “this is not the best opportunity for my team to score,” which is FINE. If it’s not a great opportunity to score, then ripping off 45 yards on a punt increases the odds of a win.

Again, Smith will never realize this. Smith apologists will never admit his in-game 4th down management smells like a gorilla’s ass, but it is what it is, and over time the truth as always will win out. Smith has done a great job building the program, but he officially has a win cap due to his 4th down liabilities. Personally I’d love to see someone who is mentally stable and understands risk management inherit what Smith built. I know we’re not at that point, so all I can do is point out the obvious until people are willing to admit it to themselves, then come around.

WSU is always difficult for me to predict because they’re perennially the team the most like us. What I want to happen: Payback for the recent tough loses, and by payback I mean we score every possession and blow them out by 50. What I think will happen…

I do think Nolan and the offense will bounce back, but have a hunch something weird will happen (e.g. Special teams TD, safety, pick 6, fumble TD, miss a game winning FG, etc) that turns our recent good fortune. De Laura ran for 43 yards and a TD against us last year. It’s his highest career total to date. I know we have more depth and a better D, but it’s a concern of mine. Borghi will obviously be a pain to defend, and I’m sure they saw we couldn’t stop the wildcat. Away game. Beavs feeling high on life. All things considered it feels like a minor upset in the works.

Pick ’em with a slight lean to Cougs (I’d take the points if betting) due to all the above. Since people like prognosticators to man up and pick a score, the “gun to the head” pick would be 31-28 Cougs with a wide 7 point confidence interval. Meaning I could see as high as 38-28 Cougs or on the other end a close 24-28 Beav win.

I don’t have a strong feeling about this game either way. The idea the Beavs should be able to move the ball easily, yet that our D won’t be able to stop WSU easily, seems the most accurate to me.

Just not sure what kind of score that results in. I don’t see us getting many turnovers or sacks. I’ll say that keeps it close. I actually have a bad feeling about this game. Final prediction later this week as I read up on WSU.

Just some random thoughts:

– This is the team many of us envisioned last year, but we were a year early. They didn’t know how to close last year. Now they are a year older, wiser, bigger, faster, and they know how to close a game, even if they’re behind late. This is unique for OSU and special.

– Smith has been out of the way lately. It’s a very good thing. I saw him pondering punt vs going on one of those 4ths around mid field. Glad he punted. It was a sign to me he learned from the past, and he learned to grapple with his own (poor) tendency for gambling and poor understanding of in-game feel rather than just looking at a chart of probabilities. Improving. This is big.

– I like that everyone gets involved. Said this even last year, and then earlier again this year, that having guys like Gould and Colletto is huge. These types of players are good, yet they don’t quite fit into regular rolls. Players on the team see this and empathize. So when a player like that comes in and does well, it gives the entire team an emotional lift. I’m a huge fan of getting every player involved in some capacity. Even more interesting: those players were arguably the MVPs last night.

– Nolan isn’t as great as we thought. An elite D shut him down very well. So as we progress through this year, we have to keep that in mind and game plan around it. More QB runs, more running in general, and need to get “creative” (soft) and incorporate more trick plays against these types of opponents. Utah is probably the next test for this.

– Baylor should be a dark horse Heisman candidate. If they Beavs keep winning, and he keeps his TD and yardage pace. He has much better stats than TreVeyon Henderson, who is currently the top RB in that race.

– It’s nice that we look like a real team. I’ve said it before, but we’re doing all the basic things that teams always did against us; things that we couldn’t do to them consistently. We pass the eyeball test, and now we pass the mental test. That’s the big takeaway tonight: we passed the mental toughness test.

– The mental issue moving forward, and one they haven’t dealt with yet, is how to handle success. Coaches need to be on this.

– So this is what it feels like, for a fan, to be atop the North? It’s pretty sweet. Let’s keep it rolling.

Go Beavs!

What I saw in interviews is that the Beavs were sniffing their own farts all week and enjoying the scent. Smith seemed aware of this. So what plays out?

Originally I thought 31-17 in a game they control but don’t dominate. Now I’m thinking psychology and ego come into play. Smith can try to coach that out of players, but it’s human nature, and therefore can’t be eliminated completely.

Also, I think the Beavs will have to pass more in this game, so I’m going with Nolan, Lindsey, and Harrison as the players to watch tonight. Morris has never impressed me as a QB, and given the Beavs D is getting more pressure, I think they force him into a few key mistakes.

Beavs are the better team, but fart sniffing keeps it close.

31-24