Go Beavs.

I’ll be gone the entire game, unfortunately, so no in-game commentary or analysis, but will try to catch it on YouTube tomorrow morning and give thoughts then.

P.S. Go Luton!

It’s been hard finding good previews or research about this game. If you’ve found good research on this game share it in the comments below so we can all get a better feel for it.

From what I can gather, it seems like the Cowboys weakness is their D-line. I’m not sure if it’s actually a weakness, or they have talented players who just lack game experience. There’s a difference. They’ll be playing some freshman. I’m not sure what to make of it, and I’m not going to watch film on Cowboy players to see how good these guys are. So generally speaking, this seems like an area the Beavs can exploit with Jefferson. The Cowboys run a 4-2-5, so maybe that negates some of this advantage in that they won’t have to have a lot of LB rotation. And the corners/secondary are their strength, so maybe they just move a DB up to the line and try to stop Jefferson that way. That seems like the best plan.

Luton should get some opportunities if that’s the case. Play action should be effective (if Luton can pull it off…he has poor play action mechanics and doesn’t sell it well).

To me the game comes down to three factors:

– Can Jefferson et al get things going early? The RB unit needs a fast start to soften things up and make the Cowboys start questioning themselves. If they bring a safety up to the line early to try and stop this, the Beavs should consider some trick plays, end arounds, or deep play action. Also, look for which line is getting push on the first drives, and that should tell you who will win the game. I find this method about 90% accurate in predicting the final outcome in the first minutes.

– Can the Beavs D slow down Oklahoma State? Again, look at line push. From the sound of things, it sounds like the D still isn’t getting much passing pressure in camp. I expect the OkSt QB to have plenty of time to find open receivers. I’m not convinced our run D will be much better. The home atmosphere should help with an adrenaline rush early on, and you have to hope the Beavs capitalize on that with a turnover and some points before the high wears off.

– Can Luton beat the secondary? From the reports, the Cowboy secondary is their strength. For all the talk about Luton lately, we should get a good glimpse early on whether the “game has slowed” for him and he can beat a strong secondary. Point 1 above with Jefferson, the 4-2-5, and how OkSt uses their safeties will factor into Luton’s opportunities. Should be some shots at big plays via play action, though, given the LB issues for OkSt and that they might cheat a safety. I’m expecting 300 yards, 3TDs, 2INTs, and a fumble from Luton. If we get something better than that, we should at least cover the spread.

That’s where I’d leave it. Beavs +15.5 at home vs a rebuilding D seems like you take the points. Whether they can win the game? I have no idea. My gut says no chance. It’s not the type of game we’ve ever won in recent history, and I don’t see this D or Luton being the guys to break that string. It would be pretty awesome to be wrong.

Oklahoma State 42, Oregon State 30.

Besides being 2-8 with 15TDs and 12INTs in his career, Luton is also a Gary Andersen (worst QB analyst I’ve ever seen) recruit who had zero P5 offers.

That said, since he is tall and can throw a ball 60 yards, people like him. Just like Seth Collins was the next great because he could hurdle. People continually fall for tangibles. It’s a bias and inefficiency in the QB market. That said, Luton will have some great throws and a few good games that seemingly validate Smith’s decision, just like Seth and every other bad QB we have had recently. These types of games just confuse the big picture. The people who bow down to authority and think the coach is always right will say, “see, Luton threw for 300 yards and 4TDs so Smith made the right call.” They are not seeing the forest from the trees.

Did Luton win the game making clutch throws when it mattered? Was it versus good competition? Did he audible into a winning play? Did he inspire teammates to be better? Did he run a two minute drill to perfection and will the Beavs to glory? Etc. Any bozo with a big arm can beat college DBs once in a while and then the numbers follow. It’s all lone trees without a forest.

So yeah, I fully expect Luton to throw for 300 yards here and there and even some 3TD games. I even concede he’d make a good backup. But none of this means the right guy or best guy for the job. Stats are stats. Height is height. Arm strength is arm strength. Media opinions are media opinions. Coaches and their decisions are fallible. None of these things are the intangibles that lead to greatness. Luton does not have the football IQ or the heart of a champion, and he never will. What makes a player great is in the ether.

Gebbia is as good if not better than Luton in only his 2nd year. Gebbia has more moxie, fight, and the intangibles of a great QB, along with perfect mechanics. You take a chance at greatness and go with that guy. The argument that experience matters is a poor one. I can pilot and crash a plane 20 out of 20 times; it doesn’t mean you’d want to hire me over a pilot fresh out of training without a single flight under his belt. Experience means very little yet it gets a lot of weight, and this leads to poor decisions, not only in football but the real world.

In summary, this will be another poor QB decision that puts a cap on the season. By the time the coaches realize Luton is not the answer we’ll be behind the eight ball. Sure, there is no doubt Gebbia would have a few rough games (just like McM and every other young QB), but after that something would click (ala Matt Moore ’06) and he’d be off and running. Now we have to wait for that. Time, games, opportunity will all go by as we wait for the Luton experiment to play out for a 3rd time. This is just the ghost of Gary Andersen still ruining and holding back the program, and it’s a real shame Smith fell for “experience” over talent, and even more of a shame fans continually fall for and accept these errors because “coach is the authority figure and knows best.”

Thornton Melon.

Link to our starting QBs’ video highlights.

I’ve been working my way through the coach interviews the past week. Some notable tidbits after watching all the Fall camp videos.

1. Smith says Aidan Willard not in camp. I think I had him rated a 1 star and wasted scholie. Good to hear. Addition by attrition. (I’m now told he’s back…luck o’ da Beavs)

2. Michalczik claims the offensive line is much better. I’ll believe it when I see it, but it makes sense given another year, etc.

3. Running back and WR are both the obvious strengths. Two sleepers to watch are Calvin Tyler and Jesiah Irish. They’re lower on the depth chart but both are intriguing.

4. Tibesar says they’re doing drills to force turnovers, get more pressure on the QB, and stop the run. This is Captain Obvious stuff, but still it’s good to hear they know what to work on. Sounds like they’re not getting pressure or turnovers, though, based on Smith’s comments after the scrimmage (complained of lack of pressure/turnovers). This is the same old story, and if this hasn’t improved we won’t improve much.

5. August 13th Lindgren says the offensive line is not physical. Also says in the same video messing up the small details. Mentions poor technique and execution stalling drives. This also sounds like typical Beavs.

6. August 9th Blue Adams calls the secondary a “work in progress”. That doesn’t sound good.

7. Trent Bray says LBs bigger and stronger.

For those of you who made it to scrimmage, how did the team look? Strengths: WRs and RB. Weakness: CB, pass rush, turnovers?

Sound about right?