Home Football Hawaii @ Oregon State (Game Week)

Hawaii @ Oregon State (Game Week)

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Given the QB situation, the game plan this week should be regrouping and getting back to basics. Simplify things and run the ball vs Hawaii. Pass only when necessary. Just get the win and give Gebbia another week to get healthy.

Would like to see a lot more Fenwick and Lowe this week.

This should be a relatively easy win with that formula.

Beavs 38, 20

325 COMMENTS

    • If they do that then we need to use screens and draws to take advantage of the aggression. Easy passes that play to our strengths.

      • You know Nuke that makes sense. Let’s see if the coaches actually do that… I mean against Purdue I was screaming at them to run more screens or quick passes but it didn’t happen.

      • Agreed nuke, but can Noyer even complete those throws? Nolan sounded like he was coming along towards the end of camp, I say give him another go? I dunno not very confident in him or Noyer

        • He was accurate on the run and okay on the real short throws. If he can’t even toss a catchable ball 7 yards for a rb screen he shouldn’t be on the field.

          • Gebbia hasn’t yet demonstrated the ability to put together a complete game. I think he very well could, but this hamstring injury is going to delay that growth and proof. Also, he needs to get better and finding throwing lanes and not telegraphing his throws. Combined, these habitats are a risk for batted-down passes and INTs.

            FTD with the cheap, unnecessary pull on his leg that injured his hamstring. He was down already.

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    I’m going to be extremely concerned if this isn’t a convincing win. Based on how much UCLA was in the backfield against this Hawaii OL, we should be able to as well even with less talent. Need to see some sacks and turnovers generated. Offense needs to keep it simple, play to our best players strengths. We didn’t run one single sweep for Bradford against Purdue. I don’t remember many screens being called at all. Get Fenwick more carries.

    Going to be hard to learn a lot from these next two games given the quality of opponent, but I need this team to have 8 solid quarters of play to convince me we have any chance in conference play.

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    I loved Nolan’s scrambling last Saturday. Took what the defense gave him and picked up a lot of 1st downs. Also was decisive and quick to commit.That alone is a major offensive boost.

    Unless it’s gimpy Gebbia, every QB should be scrambling and we should have some RPO and designed runs. They’re all pretty mobile and we have depth but no clear starter (injury wouldn’t be crippling). Ideal scenario to make QB rushing a big part of the game plan.

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      I think if Noyer is the starter then it’s crippling. Look what he did/couldn’t do in 3 quarters…. I’m sure if he got the start in the next game (please no) then he’d do some things better and the game plan would cater to his skills better (why wasn’t this happening against Purdue) but I don’t want to rely on him.

  3. Hawaii doesn’t have the talent to stack the box and be as effective as Purdue. I would lean heavily on the run game but this is a good chance to get one of the QBs into a rhythm. This could actually be a good game to use two QBs. I’m usually not a fan of that but they should be able to win this game. See if Noyer has it figured out or if Nolan has really started to hit a stride then ride the hot hand after they each have a series or two.

  4. Also- the passing game was dysfunctional and it was a little hard to assess BUT – it did seem like Angry was right about Lindsay taking the next step and becoming a reliable option. Seemed solid and a different player than last year. Bradford looked great and Beason had a few nice plays too.

    Seems like overall a big step for that position group vs last year. Really hope we see more of Harrison and less of Champ going forward. Tongue or Dunmore would be nice but it sounds like they need more time in the system to be effective.

    • Ya I had mentioned too that lindsay had come on late last season with Nolan. I think he had 3 TDs in the last 2 or 3 games. The practice reports were all good about him so I think that’s fair to say at this point. He is the highest rated player on this team out of high school I believe and his real problem was drops and he appears to have that cleaned up. Bradford had a nice game hauling in some tough high passes from Nolan. Beason had a couple of real nice runs after the catch. One of them he was a beast breaking tackles (Beason the beast?).

      Ya angry and I have been complaining about champ for years and everyone is seeing it too. He has to be wide open otherwise you can’t get him the ball and then he can be thrown down by 1 hand. I would think tongue would at least be a pretty effective blocker. I think he was on 1 of either Baylor’s or Lindsay’s TDs. This seems like a good game to try and get the higher rated guys some looks at WR.

        • I know -or hear anyway then speculate – Tongue and Dunmore need to get a better understanding of the playbook, but for the purposes of their development, aren’t home games with UH and UI the best opportunity to do that?!? Get ready for league play. Champ is a known commodity.

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            Yes I think it’s a great opportunity to get them comfortable and get some game reps. I don’t understand Harrison not playing more tho. He has plenty of time in the offense now and led in receptions in both games he played. Is he just not putting in the work or making mistakes? It’s a real head scratcher. Agree you know what you have in champ and he’s maxed out his potential. I wouldn’t mind even getting Gould, Irish, or whoever some game reps and develop the younger guys.

            Really wish Hawaii or Idaho was our first game. I have a lot more confidence in this staff and their ability to coach up and adjust more than coming out ready to go in week 1. In the future I don’t like Boise st. or San Jose st. In week 1 and prefer an FCS or a weaker group 5 than those teams. They’re a couple of the better teams at the G5 level. Also think Purdue is going to end up being in the top half of the big10.

  5. Nolan and Noyer both had 16 completions last weekend.
    Nolan had 1 quarter to work with, although was aided by the faster tempo of the 4th quarter playing catchup.

  6. Here’s my two cents:
    Noyer could be a lights out type of practice player. He’s comfortable against our own D because he knows their strengths and weaknesses. Then come Saturday, despite all his experience, he gets flustered. I see it alot in high school kids I’ve coached, and some small college athletes as well.
    It’s frustrating as hell as a coach to watch a kid tear it up all week in practice, and then half way through the first quarter, they have that deer in the headlights look.
    But a good coach recognizes that, and pulls that player out, next man up.
    As for Champ, he did catch a nice long ball, and fall on his ass at the 2 yard line. That’s about all I have to say about him. Gould made a clutch catch, in traffic, and took a big hit. In the 4th quarter, I saw mostly Bradford, Beason, Lindsey and Gould playing. I’m okay with that. Harrison, Tongue, and the rest will get there chance.
    Cream rises to the top, right!?
    Go Beavs!!!

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        Has he?? More INTs than TDs last year. The coach at Colorado talked him into switching from safety to QB and then he earned the starting spot there. Came here and got the start (by default, with Gebbia’s injury and whatnot) seems like a practice champion to me, not a gamer.

          • I think that’s more a statement of how bad QB play was in the PAC last year then anything else. I wish all the best for him if it makes the Beavs a better team, just seems like he was overwhelmed out there, still, after all his experience. Maybe it was him still learning the playbook, who knows. Keep him on a short leash this weekend.
            I was hoping he’d have that “moxy” and swagger that Moevao had and I didn’t see any of it. This team needs leaders on offense, who was the last true leader you remember seeing run our offense??

          • At quarterback? Probably mannion. I think the guys followed Luton but neither were really vocal. Seems that they have more lead by example guys than vocal leaders.

            Ya hopefully he’ll play better in the future or Nolan can continue to play fairly but hopefully a little better. I’m not ready to write Noyer off after 3 quarters of play tho. It didn’t help that he had a future first rounder in his face all game and the run wasn’t there. I thought he would help with the deep ball after seeing him at Colorado. I said earlier that I think this team can go as far as the qb can take them and so far that looks fair.

            Like I said hopefully whoever plays can have success and build their confidence these next 2 games and we can figure who the playmakers are going to be. Should have more rythm and a bit of identity headed into USC. The offensive line was horrible last year at WSU so I think we can expect them to get much better.

            Don’t they say the biggest growth is from week1 to 2?

          • Agree. So what percentage of his performance do we put on the coaching staff? He led a td drive but let’s not forget it was Lindsey with the big play.

          • Well, one potential explanation is, how conservatively do the coaches approach qb play when two of the best an options are injured before the season begins. It would explain why Noyer, the bigger body, gets the start against the best pass rusher they’ll see this season and he plays until all the defensive starters are fatigued and he’s proven to be ineffective. Assuming the coaches see Nolan/Noyer as fungible otherwise.

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    The obvious answer is to concern little fella Champ Fleming into an option quarterback. Triple option football is virtually unstoppable when properly executed. Plus it’s really fun to watch.

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      Like dude Noyer was crap and Nolan pushed him in camp anyway… Nolan was clearly better and more with it mentally in the game. Just stop with the crap and start Nolan.

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        Because it’s Wednesday of game week, and everyone on the team probably wants to know who their QB will be. And performance should be rewarded, and the best performer was obvious.

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            Smart players are locked into their own systems, routines, and plan for the game. They aren’t worried about who the QB is. Their goal is to make themselves look as good as they can and they will do that no matter who the QB is. Do you think 2 qb’s getting reps is distracting Jaydon Grant? No

        • I think it could go either way. Both QB’s had a really small game sample size to work from, so I could see the coaches wanting to see as much as possible before making the call. However, at some point, you have to admit that players respond differently to game reps than practice reps.

          Remember, Nolan was pretty bad in his starts last season, so it would be hard for the coaches to justify with the “he’s a gamer” argument.

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            Nolan had Oklahoma State and Utah offers. People act like he’s garbage. Noyer’s only two scholarship offers were Eastern Washington and Colorado. So Nolan has pedigree on top of him playing better, which of course is the most important thing.

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            QB rating is an obsolete stat that overemphasizes TD’s. His more relevant stats like QBR, YPA and completion % were all below what you’d want your starting QB’s line to be.

            And if you want to look beyond that, his PFF rating was below average, too.

            Also, did you watch him play?

          • Also, Noyer had a QB rating of 116 last year, so apparently he was just as good as Nolan.

            This is all based on super small sample sizes. Neither QB has a legitimate track record at this level. I don’t envy the coaches making this decision.

          • I did watch him play. It was painful at times. I’m not saying he is great but I wouldn’t say he is pretty bad. He had them in games. I think they have a bunch of decent options, Gebbia included. Still not sure about him. I hope vidlak or gulbranson blow away the competition in the off season and there is a clear stud waiting to get the offense going.

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    Well, my younger sister and bro in law contracted covid and were very sick and very unvaxxed. They have since recovered. They didn’t take covid serious and will now get vaxxed. Just found out my other bro in law, who believes covid is an overblown hoax, has contracted covid, is in the hospital and coughing up blood. He was also not vaxxed. I’m finally able to get the JJ on September 29. This thing is no hoax friends. I’m not willing to play the covid roulette gamble. Stay safe and get vaxxed if you’re able to.

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      Sorry to hear, hope your family is doing better soon.
      Fwiw, i had a hell of a time after the J&J shot back in April for about 2 weeks. Everybody is different, so you may be fine, but if I were to do it again, I’d go with the Moderna/Phizer ones instead.
      Docs didnt know what was going on with me at the time, but 2 months later a new FDA warning for Guillain Barre syndrome was added to the label for that shot. It’s symptoms read almost exactly like what i experienced. It wasn’t a positive experience but I’m feeling pretty good these days.

      https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-vaccine-guillain-barre-syndrome

      Also fwiw, my 95 year old grandma and both of my 75 y/o parents had J&J and had a perfectly normal experience(slight short duration fever within 48 hour window of having shot)
      I was just unlucky and it seems to hit people in the 40-50 year age brackets a little different.

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        Good to know. Yes, everyone reacts differently based on their immune response. I’ve read if people get fairly sick from the vaccine, it means their immune system is functioning the way it was designed. Again, Thx for the information. I appreciate it

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        I haven’t had a chance to talk with my bro in Latin the hospital. My sister and her husband were told rest, drink lots of water and ibuprofen. She said she literally thought she was going to die. Lost her sense of taste and smell but has since recovered it. I take elderberry syrup and elderberry gummies with sing when I feel like I’m coming down with something and it works very well.

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            Antivirals are exceedingly expensive and generally not very successful. Especially with a virus like the flu/Covid which have warp-speed evolution cycles.

          • That’s true, and the same can be said for some steroids, though there are some combinations that look durable according to the FLCCC.

            Wish we had thrown money at creating our own domestic supply chain to try to drive down costs.

  9. Bummer that he and his brother don’t get to play together for longer.

    From their film, Newell and Madison look like similar backs, with Newell maybe having a little more upside. I guess their playing time in scrimmages is an indication that the coaches felt the same.

  10. OT, another NIL example:

    “Florida Atlantic quarterback N’Kosi Perry has signed a name, image, and likeness deal with Islamorada Beer Company, the company announced Wednesday.

    Islamorada Beer Company is based in Islamorada, Florida, two hours from FAU’s Boca Raton campus. It is believed that Islamorada is the first company that sells alcohol to endorse a collegiate athlete through the new NIL rule.

    Florida’s state law mandates that NIL compensation must be equal with market value and can’t be provided in exchange for performance or attendance.”

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      Read the comment to the article, which concludes: “JS has culture going the right direction but his in gane management is awful. Mike Riley would of won Saturday.”

    • Yeah… it’s best to avoid Chip’s teams when his running game starts hitting full stride. Plus, his defense is fast and physical.

      If they beat Oregon at home and are undefeated, I don’t see anyone else in the conference who can definitively beat them.

      • Ya chips teams have never been known for defense so if they start playing well that’s a recipe for success for him. I’m not convinced they can win week in week out yet tho. They seem like a team that will blunder away a game or 2.

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      That might be explained as the defense quitting since the head coach went to get scratch-it tickets instead of trying to win the game.

      Discipline and executing plays is foundation of football, but JS coaches outside of that basic parameter. WHat if his teams played with such a gambling mentality on each play or whenever they thought the odds were great for a highlight reel play?

      He needs ot check his gambling habits at the door and coach with discipline. At this point he has become predictable with his gambling attempts and it doesn’t work well.

      • Do you really believe that? Did you watch the interviews? Clearly not the case.

        It’s not gambling if it’s based off of analytics.

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          Is our goal to prove the analytics wrong?

          There can’t be a ton of positive samples where teams throw deep on 4th and 1 from their own territory. So it worked once or twice in the history of recorded stats, it doesn’t mean it’s a better play than a simple run play or punting in that situation.

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            Yeah I don’t get the point of justifying stupidity just because it’s “your guy” who’s stupid…oh wait, yeah I do. People are tribal, and more so than ever.

          • I don’t think you can call it a bad play call when you had the team fooled and a guy completely uncovered for the first down. Nolan threw it to the one guy that doesn’t look into the backfield because he’s manned up with a WR and doesn’t have run responsibility. If he threw it to Musgrave wide open you don’t get higher probability than that. They stuffed Colleto previously and he knew they would sell out on the run again. Even the RB in the flat would’ve gotten the first down.

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            They should make a modified version of that play where Crazy Legs takes a step forward (PA) then makes the throw. Gets them another blocker/target doing direct snap and its likely someone will be wide open.

          • They did something like that last year and it went awful. Then everyone was pissed that he threw a pass and didn’t run. People were saying he gets the first everytime he runs and that he’s an awful passer. Might’ve thrown a pick I can’t remember and could’ve been the year before. Did he do the wildcat 2 years ago?

          • I’m pretty sure they did that for a touchdown last year. Kept waiting for that against Purdue. Every time you put Colletto in the backfield, the defense is expecting run. Seems like JS problem is doing the same thing one too many times and not knowing when to throw in the wrinkle.

          • They definitely didn’t because I watched all the highlights from last year like a month ago. Plus I remember all of the fans getting pissed like I said above. I personally thought and still do think it’s a good idea because obviously everyone is focused on Colleto and expecting him to run. I think you really have to put him in a good position to complete the ball because he’s not accurate. Maybe run an option pass or rollout with him where he can pass it if it’s open and easy or run for it if that’s there.

          • We fooled our own QB into throwing the wrong pass. If we can’t make that read perfectly it’s a bad call from that down and distance. One small screw up and you give the ball away in your own territory. No need to risk it all at that point in the game.

          • I think in that situation he probably should have been told too take the first down if it’s there but would’ve had to take a timeout to do so. I don’t blame Nolan at all. It was the wrong read but it was a high pressure situation and one of his weaknesses has been reading the defense.

          • That’s what I’m saying though. If average angrybeavs fan knows one of Nolan’s weaknesses is reading the defense, and you run a high risk/high reward play that requires him to make that read and place the ball perfectly, then it’s a bad call. Of course something is going to go wrong. Instant turnover when it didnt even need to be a high risk play.

          • Yes but every play is a read he can’t tell him who will be covered and who won’t be. He wouldn’t have to place the ball anywhere near perfectly if he just threw it to Musgrave who had no one on him. It was one of the easiest reads you’ll ever see as it was a crossing route right in front of him with no one near him. If you cant see a 6’6 260lb TE running across the middle of the field wide open then that probably had a lot to do with why he didn’t start. Why is calling a play that gets a huge target wide open a high risk? It’s not. Nolan took the high risk high reward play instead of the safe one.

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            Coaches should know that tendency and punt if that’s what Nolan’s going to do. As NB said, everyone here knows his tendencies. The coaches should, too. They simply hate punting and love gambling. You’re justifying error because your guy was the idiot, and that’s painful to admit.

          • That and Musgrave hasnt shown consistently good hands. Throwing to him in that situation is high risk, even if Nolan makes the right read. For me it boils down to a high risk play was unnecessary and had the greatest probability of failure in that scenario. And failure means yielding a short field to Purdue when you still had a shot at winning .

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            Now your telling me what I’m doing and why I’m doing it? That’s a whole new level of arrogance. I could say you drew your line in the ground calling it a bad call and now that everyone points out that the play worked and there was a large target wide open you’re too stubborn to admit that you’re wrong. Give me a break.

          • Nolan fucked it up and underthrew it to the only covered guy. It’s Smith’s fault that he called a play that got guy wide open for the first down and the guy threw it to the only covered receiver. Lol. You can lead a horse to water….

  11. “At this point he has become predictable with his gambling attempts and it doesn’t work well.”.
    Maybe someone here with time on their hands can run the numbers, but that strikes me as a very valid point.
    Without the element of surprise it seems the chances of success in these situations is reduced.

    • Except for the fact that Musgrave was wide open and it did work but Nolan made the wrong read. They loaded the box so saying that it was predictable is just wrong because they anticipated the run Nolan threw it to the lindsay who had the only guy in coverage on him.

        • Chip Kelly used to go on 4th and go for 2 all the time. I don’t know their actual success rate, but it was high. It got to the point that it was expected every time but they were still successful because they could execute.

          With a mobile QB they should be practicing a run/pitch option like Kelly used to pick everyone apart with.

          • Yeah once he was there for a couple of years they started recruiting pretty well but his first couple of years were in the 30s nationally (including the years he was OC since those were the guys he had when he took over).

            Granted, he was still catching people off guard with scheme, but that doesn’t mean that any other team couldn’t use the same concept if need be, especially in a 4th and short situation. If you’ve been substituting and huddling all game go blur for one snap and catch them before they’re ready.

  12. Speaking of baseball, I went to the St. Paul Saints game two nights ago hoping to see Trevor Larnach play. On the DL, apparently.
    Saw Caleb Hamilton go 0-3. Came to bat with bags loaded in the B9. Gave him a “go Beav’s “ yell and they proceeded to pull him for a pinch hitter.(-

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    Lots of inexpensive tix available for this weekend’s game on Seatgeek. Bet that stadium is looking pretty empty on tv, with the 8pm start and covid protocals keeping some people away.
    Thought about going, but have no interest in getting home at 2AM, I’ll pass.

  14. Did OSU post an official depth chart for Hawaii? 24/7 posted one but it wasn’t clear to me if it was from OSU or just from them.

    If so, the QB depth chart is pretty ridiculous. All 4 guys listed as OR.

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    Was chatting with someone who knows some of the players. I guess our own team doesnt even know who is the starting QB yet for Saturday.
    I can’t imagine that’a good for game prep

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      JS: “we know what we’re doing.”

      …you have a 9-23 record as a head coach. Forgive us if we’re not all convinced of that.

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          Hopefully this season isn’t the beginning of the end for Smith. I really like him as a head coach, seems like a great x-o guy. Really good guy etc…. Bottom line is, it’s time to win and not play games. No more tried hard, pats on the back. No more oops wrong qb. Oops shouldn’t have went for it on our own 30 when the defense has been playing well and it’s 3rd quarter, down by 2.

          I want him to be our head coach for a really long time, but 4-8 isn’t getting it done year 4. We need a spark this year. Let’s go coach Smith.

          And a Hawaii/Idaho state win is a place to start, but those aren’t what I am talking about. Lose either of those it will be time to be on the hot seat. Like hot hot hit aeat

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            Good recruiter. Could keep him on staff.

            Let’s see how things go. If it’s the same ol’ wild gambling, and it appears it is, then he has to be demoted so someone who’s mature and not named Mike Riley reigns him in.

          • Let’s be realistic. No one is going to lose a head coaching job and be kept on staff in a different capacity. Also, the Beavs aren’t in a position to be picky with a head coach. I don’t want to accept a losing culture but he is showing signs of improvement with recruiting and isn’t getting into any violations (other than sending mail to Hawaii kids). I think you have to give him a long leash knowing he isn’t going to be good at everything. And if they take a chance on another young unproven coach then you run the risk of them leaving if successful. With JS, he will stick around if he has success since he is a small town guy and this is his alma mater.

          • Do you think there’s any chance OSU moves on Scott Frost if JS shits the bed this year? It feels like JS has too much buy-in from the AD and alumni for any moves this year, but not outside the realm of possibility.

          • Ya it’s one game into the season let’s reserve judgement. There’s no reason to think they won’t win the next 2. Were the only north team to play a P5 team and were in it until the end. No reason to get too down and think the season is going to be bad and Smith will be on the hot seat.

          • He’s not going anywhere. Beavers in the process of west side renovation and recruiting improvements too. Dealing with covid over the past year and a half bought JS additional time. Plus, the Corvallis community loves the guy, Riley v2.0, Plus, you have to consider the cost of buying out what remains of his contract. Finally, this is really JS third season given 2020 was all covid related. He’s in for the long run bc financially the beavers can’t afford at this point to replace him.

      • Re the quote, “we know what we are doing.”
        I take it to mean that the coaches (and possibly the team) knows who will start, not a general and very cocky “I’m so very very smart”

  16. Tidbits from the GT:
    -Gumbs remains out indefinitely
    -Jones has a chance to play
    -Schad will play

    What a lift it would be if Gumbs can return vs SC

      • Bleeding gumbs. Chronic periodontal disease. Also known as Luck O Da Beav’s. Has this guy ever played a snap? I remember being so pumped about his potential when he transferred in. Classic Beaver football outcome…..

      • From yesterdays article in the GT:
        OSU outside linebacker Addison Gumbs, who has struggled to stay healthy in his three seasons with the Beavers, remains out indefinitely after a training camp injury.

        And from Daschel a year ago: Oregon State OLB Addison Gumbs says he’s stronger and faster than ever after recovering from his second ACL surgery in two years.

        Ya gotta feel bad for him, for the team, and for fans hungry for his kind of talent.

        • Weird, and just today Daschel says:

          “All I know is that Smith says he’s not available. It doesn’t appear to be injury related.”

          Wonder how GT says it’s injury related but Daschel doesn’t think it is?

          • I’ll go with Daschel, he’s the only reporter who has been at all practices……according to a recent remark by either JS or one of the coordinators.

            Besides, the GT keeps switching personnel, haven’t had anything close to a “beat reporter” since they dropped Bob Lundeberg. GT seems to be trying to get by on the cheap, reporter turnover results in a sub-par product.
            And, their “Lead news/sports copy editor/page slotter” spends too much time tweeting his predictable political views. Just sayin’

  17. Somebody on here was asking for it and now Daschel has done it. He dug through all of Smith’s 4th down calls during his time at OSU, in situations where the team wasn’t in a must win now scenario and truly had a choice between going for it or punting.

    He breaks it down into several different categories, and Smith is actually very successful in most scenarios.
    But when it comes to 4th down conversions from enemy territory, like last week, the results have been terrible.

    https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2021/09/does-oregon-state-coach-jonathan-smith-gamble-too-much-on-fourth-down.html

  18. PHIL STEELE REPORT:

    Hawaii is 4-7 vs OSU & are 0-2 in games in Corvallis. Hawaii has lost 7 straight Pac-12 road games including 2013 at OSU with their last win coming at Wash St back in ’09 (38-20). In
    their last meeting in ‘19, Oregon St squandered a 28-14 lead before UH eventually kicked a 28- yd FG with :2:17 left to win 31-28. OSU has 19 returning starters but did lose RB Jemar Jefferson. They went to Purdue last week and trailed 16-7 then Nolan replaced Noyer at QB Ore St 75/7 TD 16-14 13:05 OSU 4&2 OWN 37 GOING?? INC pub TRICE PU 37/6 TD 4:56 OSU 75/7 TD 3:13 23-21 kick off deep. PU 25 pass Bell 22 yds FD 3&2 DURHAM 50 YARD RUN TD 2:03 left for coer OSU 27 4&10 FD 4&6 INC. Hawaii is in year two of Todd Graham and won their bowl game vs Houston last year going 5-4 and they have 18 returning starters. Hawaii lost 44-10 to UCLA which does not look as bad this week. Last week Hawaii led 28-0 after 1Q. Up 28- 7 they had a 1&G at the 2 but fumbled. It was 35-7 at half. and 42-14 late 3Q. Port St went 51/7 for garbage TD with 1:10 left in 49-35 final. While Hawaii is 0-2 ATS they are much better than their record and Oregon St is in rare role of DD favorite. I like the dog here. OSU is just 6- 12 ATS as a HF the last 9 years.

    POSITION BY POSITION EDGES:

    WHEN HAWAII HAS THE BALL:
    Hawaii QB/WR’s vs Oregon State DB’s: HAWI +0.22
    Hawaii RB’s vs Oregon State LB’s: ORST +1.54
    Hawaii OL vs Oregon State DL: HAWI +0.61

    WHEN OREGON STATE HAS THE BALL:
    Oregon State QB/WR’s vs Hawaii DB’s: HAWI +0.53
    Oregon State RB’s vs Hawaii LB’s: HAWI +1.30
    Oregon State OL vs Hawaii DL: ORST +0.66

    MISCELLANEOUS:
    Special Teams: ORST +2.71
    Kicking: HAWI +1.10
    Coaching Staff: ORST +0.15

    POSITION EDGE AWARDED TO: Oregon State +1.29

    PROJECTED BOX SCORE (HAWI-ORST):
    Projected Rushing: 140-198
    Projected Passing: 203-256
    Projected Yardage Total: 343-454
    Projected Final Score: 25-33
    Experience Rankings: 9-43
    Team Schedule Strength: 86-32

    Las Vegas Line: Oregon State by 11
    Las Vegas Total: 64 Points
    +/- Ratings: Oregon State by 11.8
    Game Grade: Oregon State by 10.0
    Computer Yards: Oregon State 454-343
    Computer Points: Oregon State 33-25
    Spreadsheet Prediction: Oregon State by 7

    • “Hawaii is 4-7 vs OSU & are 0-2 in games in Corvallis. Hawaii has lost 7 straight Pac-12 road games including 2013 at OSU”…”I like the dog here. OSU is just 6- 12 ATS as a HF the last 9 years.”

      Yeesh. I hate it that trends like these make me nervous OSU will blow it…this SHOULD be a straight forward, in-control victory for four quarters.

    • There hasnt been much buzz with OSU recruiting lately. Not much in the way of visitors this week, at least for 2022. We’re having some of our local commits come in but that’s it.
      And then several unofficial visits from 2023/2024 guys.

      I’d imagine next week wont be much differenf since we’re playing an FCS team. Maybe theyre holding off on official visits till students are on campus so the gameday experience is a little better

      • Between masks, showing vax cards, a dismal week 1 and an 8pm kickoff… I suspect the crowd is going to be weak AF Saturday. Will 20K show up?

        • They’ll announce a much higher number as “sold” tickets, but the actual number through the gates will be pretty small, probably in that range

  19. This is kindof funny. BYU tried to pay Urban Meyer on Cameo, to say “BYU is my favorite school and always has been” and they were going to play it on their jumbotron before their game with Utah. Except this is the video they got from Urban.

    https://www.cameo.com/v/613929cf528d6d001d57d323?utm_source=copyLink&utm_campaign=video_share&utm_medium=ios_app&%24web_only=true&_branch_match_id=964904151825427768

    I like the idea though. Which celebrity should we raise money for OSU to play before a game?

  20. Per Daschel all Smith will say is Gumbs is unavailable but doesn’t seem to be injury related. Was getting excited about him making in plays in camp but now it seems like we might not see him play again.

  21. 4
    1

    Situational Notes for JS S D R M 4th&1….MFSOB:
    Ball in your own territory, down by 3 points or less, 4th and short with >5 min left in half
    Defense sucking? = fake punt the damn ball
    Defense performing? = punt the damn ball
    Won $5 on scratch-ticket the night before? = punt the damn ball
    Got 4 out 5 on Powerball the night before? = punt the damn ball
    Wife Smith given-up some nooki the night before? = punt the damn ball
    Teams having scoop on JS’s 4th&1 “surprise” plays? = punt the damn ball
    According to these analytics there is only 1/6 or 16.666% of the scenarios above where going for it is legit. Also, being that the one scenario reveals the number of the beast — highly recommended to steer clear of it!!!

  22. Kansas playing coastal Carolina. First half, 4th and 1 from their own 35. Kansas goes for it and gets stuffed. Kansas was down 21-9 (about 5 minutes left in first half) at the time but 7 of those points was off of a blocked punt recovered for a td so their defense was doing fairly well (just like Purdue game). Kansas later scores a td in the half, so then down 21-15. Goes for 2 and doesn’t get it. Smith isn’t the only one…..

  23. 1
    2

    “It’s one game into the season, lets reserve judgement”

    Facts………………..JS continues to be a riverboat gambler on 4th down. At inopportune times with usually disastrous results.

    This has not changed. Will not change. He is what he is.

  24. OT: It rained so hard and so much yesterday we were expecting the Ark to come by.

    Beautiful, sunny day today! Hope I can stay awake until game time.

        • Is it though? Every conference would have a rough record on the road against a top 10 opponent. Most teams playing those games probably aren’t anywhere near top-10 themselves.

          I’d be curious to see how this stay compared to other conferences, or to all P5 conferences combined.

          • 1
            3

            The 5-47 stat is the brutal one, even with the great teams that conference has fielded since then (03-05 USC, 08-12 Ducks, 01 Beavs). There are individual teams (Bama, Clemson, Georgia, LSU, tOSU, FSU, Va Tech) that have at least 3 of those wins.

            14 straight I can understand… Pac has’t had a true top 10 team that meets the eye test since Washington in 2016.

  25. 1
    1

    Nike’s running game is good, but their passing game is just ok. Brown is a game manager you can roll out. They do a good job putting him in situations to make high % passes.

    Ohio State is moving the ball at will, but Nike’s defense has gotten two key 4th down stops when it’s mattered.

  26. 3
    2

    Ohio State’s defense is not great. I thought they looked suspect against Minnesota but would get better. Apparently, not. I know they lost a lot from last year’s team. Almost every Saturday I root for these arrogant programs to lose but living in Oregon, we will now have to listen to the playoff hype for a while. Canzano will do a breathless piece about The Quacks road to the playoffs and Cristobal’s genius. Hopefully, Mario stays true to form and they lose a game in league play soon.

  27. 3
    7

    Buckeyes coach is as bad as smith. Goes for it on 4th and three, converts and scores a touchdown. I just don’t get it, terrible decision with terrible results. They should have punted.

        • 2
          3

          Oh, I thought he looked clean-shaven, that’s why it threw me off. How is that not a celebration penalty? I found it odd that of all games the officials let them play today. There were 2-3 plays that would have easily been PI’s against The Quacks in a typical “official dominated” college game or if the Beavs were playing defense.

          Where were the officials from?

    • 2
      5

      Ducks will lose a game unexpectedly….probably to the beavers. FSU played the ducks tougher at autzen than buckeyes played at home today.

  28. 3
    4

    Ducks still have to travel to UCLA this season. I have faith that the Chipster will outcoach Mario.

    However this was a shocker. I thought tOSU would win by 30+

    • 4
      3

      Not that I’m a huge Kelly fan, but that would be a nice redemption story considering all of the struggles Chipster has had getting the Bruins going.

        • I wouldn’t say there isn’t any. Some schools match up well with certain schools and some match up terribly. There are such drastically different schemes from school to school compared to the NFL. Part of the reason certain schools have long winning streaks even when they’re the less talented. Leach was always beating the ducks.

      • 2
        1

        It’s not like tOSU had a bad game on offense with 600 plus yards. Not converting on 4th downs and the pick sealed their fate. I didn’t watch the game closely, did they turn down field goal opportunities? There’s the Madden school of thought that you always take whatever points you can get early and take risks later if needed.

  29. 4
    6

    Ugh, another year of insufferable duck talk in the local media. Thanks Ohio state for playing like dog shit. The Beavers better run the score up on hawaii.

  30. 3
    6

    Ducks will lose a game unexpectedly….probably to the beavers. FSU played the ducks tougher at autzen than buckeyes played at home today.

  31. Nebraska in a scoreless tie with Buffalo midway through the 2nd quarter. Would Frost survive another home loss to a MAC team? I guess with that buyout he would have to.

  32. Purdue smoking Uconn. I know Uconn sucks but I think Purdue is going to be a pretty decent team. Ohio state obviously isn’t unbeatable.

  33. 6
    3

    Honestly, the Pac12 needs to do something to earn some respect again, and if that means the Ducks kicking ass year, then so be it. I’d like to see 3-4 teams in the Pac12 do really well this year, especially out of conference, to get some of our swagger back. It would be nice to see 2 Pac12 teams in the playoffs to start shifting the balance of power.

    • Whoever is running should have a good day. I’m excited about Lowe and his big play potential. Hopefully the defense shows a good pass rush and forced some turnovers. Should be like a day off for Wright compared to defending Bell.

  34. 5
    3

    I have to say that as much as I don’t like the Ducks, I like Ohio State less. I’ve met some really pompous (“I attended THE Ohio State University”) types. So…good on ya Ducks!

    • 1
      3

      At this point the PAC needs as many big wins as it can get out of conference. Let them have their glory and we can make them cry about natties in November

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