Home Football Oregon State @ Washington State (Game Thread)

Oregon State @ Washington State (Game Thread)

476

WSU is always difficult for me to predict because they’re perennially the team the most like us. What I want to happen: Payback for the recent tough loses, and by payback I mean we score every possession and blow them out by 50. What I think will happen…

I do think Nolan and the offense will bounce back, but have a hunch something weird will happen (e.g. Special teams TD, safety, pick 6, fumble TD, miss a game winning FG, etc) that turns our recent good fortune. De Laura ran for 43 yards and a TD against us last year. It’s his highest career total to date. I know we have more depth and a better D, but it’s a concern of mine. Borghi will obviously be a pain to defend, and I’m sure they saw we couldn’t stop the wildcat. Away game. Beavs feeling high on life. All things considered it feels like a minor upset in the works.

Pick ’em with a slight lean to Cougs (I’d take the points if betting) due to all the above. Since people like prognosticators to man up and pick a score, the “gun to the head” pick would be 31-28 Cougs with a wide 7 point confidence interval. Meaning I could see as high as 38-28 Cougs or on the other end a close 24-28 Beav win.

476 COMMENTS

  1. 1
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    Weird stuff happens in Pullman. I’m not ready to believe the program has fully turned around, always prepared/expecting the inevitable crash to reality. Based on that I’m predicting WSU 35 Beavs 24. Wha-wha.

    PS: If they do happen to win who wants to join me next week searching the banks of the Willamette for the long lost OSU bandwagon? It was last seen about 10-12 years ago. It can hold up to 5,000 newly minted OSU football fans. Admission is the price of a new OSU lid or sweatshirt from Fred Meyer. Those stupid window car flags get you banned forever. Carry on.

    • Not gonna lie super nervous. I have a hunch cougs gonna pull of a close game upset. Something like 31-28 cougs. But there is a part of me that can see Beavs running away with it, similar to the usc game. Should be interesting and a early kickoff is great. Gonna enjoy the game with friends and beers. Hopefully will join you all around 8pm to talk about how awesome a win it was

  2. It’s a tough match up for WSU too. I think Smith has OSU pretty well grounded. You could see the humility and sense of team in Fenwick’s video. And when Smith says “We ain’t done yet.” I think he means there’s more work to do, not that the Beavers are automatically going to win more just by showing up.

    OSU has more talent and depth, a diverse running game, and Lindgren. We may see more of Colleto at FB, and obviously the two TE sets. WSU will counter by trying to score quickly and make the outcome dependent on who has the most possessions, and who has the ball last. My basketball analogy would be a team that’s going to quickly jack up 3’s and want lots of possessions v. a team that can run set offenses and use the clock. OSU showed against USC it can play fast and score quickly too though.

    If both teams play well, OSU should win. If Beavs are already thinking about the bye, are unfocused, and play poorly, I could see them losing. That said, I expect OSU to win.

    I’m going fishing and will check the thread later.

    Go Beavers!

  3. 1
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    I have nervousness about overusing Fenwick. I think the calls he does get are atleast 50% used to get Baylor rest. He doesn’t hit the hole fast enough IMO and just run straight downhill, fling forward like Baylor. I like that approach as is very hard for Baylor to get less than 3 yards gain and he most often can pick up 6 or 7. It is the no gain and negative plays that can really stall drives quick and Fenwick more likely to get stopped at lone of scrimmage. The two good runs he had at end of Husky game, we know the last was was 90% intentional and the run before that was likely near 50% intentional. Shouldn’t overdue the credit there. That said his use in a commitment to the run game makes sense in spelling Baylor and the fact that he also probably helps in tiring the opposing defense in tackling. Think Baor tires defenses as much, but Fenwick can keep that going.

    Would like to see Baylor get 70-75% of runs with Lowe and Fenwick both getting looks in relief. Then play action off those runs. Beavs didn’t use the sweep last week except the one run that lead to the tying touchdown by Gould right before his big catch. Would like to see 2-3 sweeps in this game as was very effective against USC. Really played a part in 2 or more drives going the distance. Harrison, Bradford and Lindsay need to come up productive and runs with tight end sets should also allow a few disguised tight end passing opportunities. Think game is tight thru most of it and comes down to 4th quarter. A pock em in my mind as well but with Nolan can scramble a few times and has a completion % of 65.2% or higher I think the Beavs win. That might be something like 15/23 on passing. Also think we need to make a couple field goals and not miss them this game to help lean the odds are way. GO BEAVS!

    OSU 34, WSU 31

    • Yes, “2 or 3 sweeps” and plenty of 2TE sets.
      Another key: WSU has been sacked just over 3 times/game, good way to slow ’em down would be for Tibs guys to get at least that many today.
      I’m leanin’ toward the good end of angry’s range, say 28-24 Beavs. However, I wouldn’t be surprised at a three score Beavs win if our DB’s really step up.
      GO BEAVS!

  4. Happily, one of the crappy losing streaks is over with the UW takedown. Today needs to be part two and then Stanford on November 13th to complete the triumvirate. Before the season, I thought these games were winnable and would go a long way in gaining bowl eligibility. Time to watch it become reality!

    • Be nice to just sweep the comference just to clear the board. I think UCLA is like a one game or something. Colorado we have a winning streak!

      Checked. We have winning streaks against Cal, Colorado, Arizona, UW, USC, UCLA and Oregon. Best winning streak is 2 vs Cal

  5. Arkansas and Oregon St. are following similar program trajectories. It was stunning to see how far Arkansas fell getting slaughtered by teams like San Jose St and North Texas. They had a 20 game SEC losing streak. Both have key games today that could take them to 5-1. Coach Pittman was a coordinator for them in the past and was brought back. I think both programs were sent in decline by ex-Wisconsin coaches with Andersen and Bielema.

      • The ex-Wisconsin coach comparison is interesting. That’s a fairly unique coaching situation with Alvarez’s influence and the commitment to a specific offense. None of the recently successful Wisconsin HC’s have fared well outside Madison. Even Chryst looks way better now than he ever did as a HC at Pitt.

  6. Be nice to stick with what’s working today. If the run game is going well and they can’t prove they’re able to stop it, let’s not stop running the ball for 1.5 quarters and give them more offensive opportunities. Rolo and mobile qbs have been trouble for us so keeping possessions limited and controlling line of scrimmage will be huge.

  7. Roberts limited in practice, but will play. Beaver radio guys say they expect to see more Coletto and less Roberts than usual (especially in coverage). They also expect Elijah Jones to get reps this week.

  8. I didn’t realize that the Pac North won 9 of the 10 Championship games. Interesting factoid in the pre-game.

    Cold weather makes you hearty.

  9. looks like a thin crowd in Pullman today. that can’t hurt. Nolan making a difference already with his legs. I heard the OSU band and the first down rag.

      • Defense gave a 3rd long and nearly a 2nd that led to the 4th down conversion. Way too early in the game for that on the 50. If defense is playing well, pin them deep and win the field position game. This isn’t the 2018 or 2019 teams that had to take a bunch of risks.

  10. Penetration backside killed the Colleto play. Of course it was Musgrave. Thats the cougs DL strength is quickness and penetration. Can’t let that happen.

  11. Don’t mind the 4th down call. It was the same as the USC game on first drive and beavs got it. Just don’t like the play call by lindgren

    • Good call d got a 3 and out. Poor execution by Nolan. Good pass and the Beavs are rolling. Nolan should have the green light to run today but needs to slide.

  12. Start at the 8, 92 yds to go. 92 has been a good number for the offense this season.
    How about a confidence building pass play? Mixed in, of course with plenty of rushes.

    • Loved the action they used to isolate Lowe.

      Colletto a great blocker out of the I. Hilarious he ever started a Pac-12 game as QB, what a GOAT Beav.

  13. Nolan’s not bad today, not too good either. Really needed those yards on that drop down to Baylor. But again he has had some good runs. Hopefully he tightens those throws going forward

  14. What the he’ll are we doing there? 3 points would have been great, but leading by a TD at half still would have been big. Threw it away literally there.

    Wait, Beavs pick it off. Thought we stayed in and Beabs could have got the shocker TD. Like said though being up a TD a win for the Beavs to end the half. Got to try to score on 1st possession of 2nd half.

  15. We should be crushing this Coug team. They have to take a lot of timeouts to get their offense organized, which goves our defense time to rest. We need to settle the fuck down and play our game.

  16. We’ll see how good Tisbear is today. There has to be some adjustments made at the half and that’s a huge understatement. Start playing physical with their receivers, we are just letting them run around.

    • Largely due to no pass rush. QB has had all day back there. Tibs got bailed out with rolo not going for points a few times and the bad throw to the wide open receiver on that 3rd down. Speaks volumes that we’re still leading after playing so badly with the passing game but WSU could easily have tied this game or even taken the lead. Need to run the ball and control the clock.

  17. 1
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    The game plan on the offensive side seems way too predictable. We’re requiring Chance to make some really difficult throws, and we’re not getting the ball to our playmaking receivers. Call some WR screens FFS.

    Defense is playing lights out.

  18. Didn’t Nolan have a rep for having only a single good half sometimes?
    Oh, and Tibs guys trying to sell those Tibs Train tickets…keep it up.

    Better see the Beavs eat some time on O, tire the smaller coug DL.

    • One half of good football…hmm, where have we heard that before?

      So maybe when gebbia gets back he gets in one half and Nolan one half?

      Except what if they both have their bad half?

  19. 3
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    Someone needs to do some regression/reverse engineering and figure out what coaches records would be if they had gone for punts/fgs instead of 4ths. Watching Auburn and saw they went for it at the Georgia 3. Stupid in the first half when you’re an underdog. I think these coaches have a mindset “You don’t beat Georgia kicking FGs!”, but, what if the final score is 2 points? Then you do. That simplistic, emotional, anecdotal thinking has become a problem. Every game is unique, so a FG could have beaten Georgia today.

    • Great comment! I’ve seen several of those calls this year, where earlier in the game I’m thinking just take the easy points, to watch the same team lose by a FG or lose later in OT. I don’t get it. College kids need confidence boost, and getting FGs helps with that, especially early on in the game. Coaches getting way too analytical in those situations. IMO.

  20. Crazy how good Chance looked up until UW and how bad he has been since.. even the middle of the two extremes would work.. dare I say if we can complete a pass again in the second half it might be Noyer time.. this isn’t working right now and for the second straight week we are entirely one dimensional. This is Not sustainable offense

    • He’s running the ball effectively and receivers need to do a better job getting open.. That said, Run the freaking ball until their defense can prove they can stop it.

  21. Nolan’s mechanics don’t look as good. Almost looks like he’s doing that thing where you overthink things and wind up aiming instead of throwing.

  22. 2
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    Coaching gonna lose this game? Once again, this is not the right call. Should’ve been a PI call but no reason to go for it at the 50 again

  23. Terrible decision on the fake. And good on the refs for not bailing us out. If you are going to fake and throw with your punter run a more high percentage route.

    • Enough gimmicks. OSU is getting a lot of attention because eof a couple wins, but things just really went our way at USC and we escaped just barely vs UW at home. Can’t be having 3 questionable 4th down plays a game and think we are going to run the gauntlet for the rest of the Pac-12 season. Have to use your head in momemts like these or we will lose momentum and possibly this game.

      • I think the momentum this season was lost after the USC game. Something changed in this team after the USC game. It must have been the In-N-Out burgers after the game. Channeling their inner Mike Riley.

  24. have a hunch something weird will happen (e.g. Special teams TD, safety, pick 6, fumble TD, miss a game winning FG, etc) that turns our recent good fortune.

    Did we just see it? Smith being total Bush League wasn’t on my list, but there it is.

        • I don’t think you realize their relationship. They are good friends, it’s not Smith is his boss. Smith trusts him, let’s him call the plays on the offensive side, even in those situations. Like I said Smith heard the call and obviously didn’t object.

  25. 1
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    Not punting tells your defense you can’t trust them to stop your opponent. This game momentum has shifted way over to Wazzu because the Beavs are taking more risks than being conservative. It’s not even aggressive, it’s risk taking.

  26. It should have been WSU’s defense tapping out with a ruthless run game. Instead it is I tapping out. My blood pressure is through the roof. I hope they turn shit around (always seems to happen when I stop watching sometimes). Enjoy the game boys and girls.

  27. Shocking. Who would’ve thought giving them the ball on the 50 would be bad? Instead of running the ball let’s keep passing with Nolan and our punter.

  28. That’s like what I do on Madden, have a frustrating drive… Then rage go for it, and the other team scores right away. I can hit restart that’s the difference here

      • hard to be consistent catching the ball when the QB is so inconsistent with his passes. The refs aren’t calling PI because Nolan is not consistent with his throws. If he was consistent, more of those calls might go our way.

  29. Well I am glad to see we are back to our usual, run and shoot yourself in the foot offense. Feels so familiar! This is is a great class on how to lose a game you probably should win.

    • My kid texted me from pullman…”fuck”

      3 seconds later…wazzu to the house.

      I guess the delay in broadcasting signals is about 3 seconds from live

        • On the following long run by baylor she texted “now that’s a beaver play” again about 3 seconds…must be time from play to text to me to live…so yeah, could be 10-15 in total…but 3 from me getting text to me seeing it on tv…

          If only I could monetize the info

  30. big possession here for Nolan and his confidence. OSU needs to do more of that RPO like WSU does. Nolan passes better when he’s on the run than in the pocket, it seems.

  31. After 3 qtrs, there is something wrong with Nolan. This guy had games with 70% completions and threw aggestively. Can Colleto throw?? Beavs have crap for defense against the pass. Can’t believe what I’m watching!!!!!!

  32. Tibs outsmarted again it appears. No qb pressure all game. Don’t seem to have any issues with continuing to 6 yds off their receivers. This feels like 2018 – 2020.

  33. The beavers zone defense is absolute garbage and they should be running it up the gut with Fenwick all day. Still think the beavs will get this one.

    • We should be playing dime and even some quarter when they go 5 wide like everyone else does against them. Tibs wants to leave Robert’s and Speights in to get cooked in space though. Same as last year.

    • It looks to be a scheme issue to me more than the players. And the non existent pass rush hurts you even more. Now the defense is even more gassed. Let’s hope the offense can hold it together.

  34. There is what I was saying pre game.. they are in 5 wide and Tibs won’t adjust and take out the ILb’s going to get cooked every time out of that formation.

  35. Defenses are gassed….too much fucking around by JS and now playing catch-up with a grind offense. Unless a turnover by WorstU, this game is over.

  36. 1
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    Can someone text Tibs and tell him when they go empty with no running backs sub in Arnold and Hardge for Speights and Roberts. They are going to pass. There is no running back to hand the ball off to.

  37. 2
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    Tibesar is so bad. He was always my biggest concern heading into the season aside from the QB position. He’s getting annihilated right now. The sooner he’s gone the better

  38. 2
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    Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian’s decision-making is under the microscope as the Longhorns fall to Oklahoma despite carrying an 18-point halftime lead

    Not the only HC who’s decision making should be under the microscope.

  39. Baylor doesnt look right. Coming off the field earlier thos drive he looked a little out of it. Then came back in and fumbled. Just doesnt look like he’s mentally focused after that head hit earlier

  40. 2
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    D is toast. Time to win the game was much earlier via the punt. D was fresh then. Guess that doesn’t show up in the probabilities, though.

    Other issue is we could have won via the run, but Smith is obsessed with being a passing team.

  41. Smith has to replay strategy of last week which is take it down to the end of regulation; except this time for a tie, not the win.

  42. If beavers score, and use clock, I’d go for two. No way this team stops WSU bit they might stop them on a 2-pt try. Gotta score first.

  43. 2
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    One of the worst defensive game plans possible. DBs playing off 7-8 yards constantly and if you’re gonna blitz, why is it a delayed blitz every single time? He couldn’t make it any easier for WSU’s offense.

  44. 5
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    I don’t get why you’d pass it there after getting bailed out on the PI.

    2 timeouts. Run it at least once to see what happens.

  45. 3
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    Wow. That’s why you run the ball after the bailout call.

    Anyway, the loss is on Smith for not punting (an all too familiar story).

  46. Coahing cost the beavs this game. I can think of so many bad coaching mistakes in this game. So sad that this should have been a win. Smith needs to look no further than himself and his staff. Defensive game plan was awful and no adjustments shows how weak a defensive coach Tibs is. Smith and his gambling cost us a win. I feel bad for the players.

    • Yep, unfortunately I have to agree with you there. Obviously the 4th down attempts early were terrible. Lindgren yet again abandoned what was working, came back to it too late, then for whatever reason from 20 yds out with 90 sec and 2 time outs abandons it once more. I can’t even with Tibs. Not sure he game plans? Clearly doesn’t make adjustments, as they put up well over 300 yds in the 2nd half. Sure they’re a better defense than before but that’s due to some better athletes not due to anything he’s doing from a scheme or preparation perspective. Also, they couldn’t have gotten any worse than they were when he came on board so the only place to go was up. Tough to see as I think the players did enough to win but the coaches clearly dropped the ball on this one. The question now really does become, is this the real Beavs team or was the team that played USC the real Beavs team?

  47. Who is calculating Smith and Co.’s analytics is what I want to know? Low percentage plays happen to be low percentage plays. How can you call such a good game and blow it with terrible decisions in crucial situations. Lindgren obviously designs most of these, wonder who does the math. MR school of bad game management.

    • Nolan’s not the issue. Lindgren is the one calling plays that are too slow to develop and require Chance to make near impossible throws.

      • Except for the 3-4 wide open receivers where he threw it way over his receivers head early in the game. He makes those and keeps the offense moving and its a different game. Completely inept QB brings the whole team down.

        • He missed so many throws because his confidence was shattered at the start of the game when Lindgren made him sit in the pocket for 5 seconds.

      • Hell, lundgren is calling passes plays when beavs should have been running. The play calling on the last four downs was pathetic.

  48. Lindgren and Smith cost us a game we should have won by 10+.

    7-5 is the ceiling with this coaching. The offense is just too predictable and underutilizes the talent we have at the WR position.

    Still need two wins to get bowl eligible.

  49. Fake punt was bad as was the play calling at the end of that series but the majority of the blame goes on Tibesar. The last 7 drives for Washington State outside of the kneel down got inside Oregon State’s 15 and their offense had been really struggling basically all season. Oregon State is gonna have losses like this as long as they keep Tibesar around. He’s a massive liability and will continue to be.

  50. Looks like they shit the bed as expected. I can’t stand for watching a 4-1 record becomes a losing record. God damn degenerate gambler Smith just won’t let himself use logic to win fucking games. I also rescind my support for Tibs.

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