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165

With July winding down and August around the corner, we’re not that far from football. The first game of the season is just a five  weeks away, August 28.

The Beavs begin Sept 3, so just under 6 weeks. It’s that time of the year again: the glass is half empty at the start of the season, and smashed into tiny pieces at the end…

Kidding. Smith is on the right track, and the Beavs should win 8 or 9 games this year. With the Jonathan “stupid 4th down” Smith discount, that puts us at 7 or 8.

165 COMMENTS

  1. 2
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    Despite everything, the conference still feels up for grabs much like it was last year. I’m not saying it’s the most likely outcome, but I think we have a shot at winning the North. Offense should be more or less the same as last year with a slight drop off in OL play and hopefully slight improvement in the pass game. Defense should be marginally better with Bray in charge and a few of the personnel changes.

    If Nolan is still just an elite game manager and nothing more, we’ll need a big season from Martinez or another RB. Otherwise this could very well be a step back toward sub-mediocrity (which would be a fitting end to our time in the top ranks of CFB).

    • I personally think that losing TQ will affect the line more than losing the other 2 guys. Obviously Eldridge is a big loss but I think levengood is a solid replacement. Kipper might br better suited as a guard as he’s really struggled in pass pro especially speed rushers.

  2. ESPN getting dirtier…

    “As these (sports betting) services proliferate, they have become comfortably intertwined both with the major sports leagues and, more importantly, with the media companies that hold the broadcast rights to those leagues. According to the Financial Times, ESPN parent company Disney holds a stake in DraftKings and ESPN has an exclusivity arrangement with the clearly struggling Caesars for pregame odds. (Disclosure: Hearst, parent company of this website, also owns 20% of ESPN.) Disney CEO Bob Chapek himself told Disney investors that sports betting was vital to the future of ESPN’s success within the company.

    Not only are these stories based on false premises (do you really see Caesars going out of business this year because the f—king Orioles are barely above .500?), they serve as blatant PR to attract gambling addicts whose habits ESPN is willfully enabling for its own profit. Appealing to that subgroup is the real free money, for both ESPN and the gambling companies. It’s an easy way for them to lure in consistent viewers, given that gambling addicts aren’t the type to rest their eyeballs, and given that almost no one who quits gambling does so for very long.”

    https://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/espn-promotes-sports-gambling-17320396.php

  3. Current projection is that each PAC team will lose about $10M in revenue from a new TV deal without the LA schools with a “traditional” broadcaster.

    The only option to minimize this is to strike a deal with a subscription service like ESPN+ or Apple+ where exposure will be decreased.

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    Am I the only one a little nervous about the non-conference football schedule? Boise and Fresno look to be consensus picks to win their divisions and Montana St is the FCS runner-up. Have the Beavs improved so much that there’s no chance of this going sideways (as in an 0-3 start)? The Beavs need at least one cupcake per non-conference and it’s possibly not going to be there this season.

    • No cupcakes. I think your concerns are warranted. All of those non-cons will likely be competitive, then they open the PAC schedule at home against USC. Hopefully the Beavers will have a strong enough running game to have the advantage.

      I’m encouraged that Smith said Martinez was picking up pass protection assignments quickly. I think if Martinez gets a meaningful number of snaps he will surprise people and provide an advantage.

    • Someone had said that Fresno and Boise lost a bunch of starters but IDK. Both have been traditionally pretty solid G5 programs. We lost to Utah st. And I would say that they are pretty much on par with them. Then Montana st. Is the 2nd best FCS team. I don’t think they’re are any layups in non conference. Thing that sucks is last year our OL improved dramatically from game 1 to game 2. Hopefully they don’t take a few games to get things going.

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      Fresno State was picked to win their division and the MWC. Boise State was also picked to win their division. Both have good, experienced QB’s returning (Jake Haener at Fresno and Hank Bachmeier at BSU).

      Fresno lost their head coach to UW but Jeff Tedford has returned to lead the Bulldogs. Oregon State has NEVER won at Bulldog Stadium. I remember the Beavs last visit there. 2002 or 2003. Derek Anderson and the Beavs lost on a FG in the last minute 16-14.

      Boise State went 7-5 in what was a down year for them in 2021. Their bowl game was cancelled. I am not sold on Andy Avalos as a head coach.

      Not sure about Montana State but they are ranked 4th in the preseason poll right behind Montana.

      1-2 or 0-3 is a very real possibility nor would it surprise me. This is the Beavs were talking about here.

      • I think its 247 that has opponent previews up. If I recall correctly it said that Montana st. Lost their best player in school history so obviously that’s a big loss for them.

        Jake haener scares me at Fresno because he’s just a big time playmaker. There is a big coaching turnover there so it will be hard to game prep for them. They’ll probably keep it pretty vanilla for their first game to try and surprise us.

        I think this team is finally at a point where we can safely say that they have the talent advantage in these games. 3-0 would be great but 2-1 wouldn’t be the end of the world but anything less would be very disappointing and a rough start.

    • No you are not. Both BSU and FSU are ranked ahead of OSU in most pre season national rankings off all the teams. On the plus side though is that the BSU game is the first game of the season and at home. OSU was 6-0 at Reser last season. FSU on the road will be tough as OSU has never won in Fresno. MSU made the title game last season, so not a pushover FCS team.
      I think the difference for OSU winning 6-7 games or winning 9 games is the OOC schedule

    • I admit I probably don’t study the stats as hard as other fans do… just don’t have the time. But I always seem to be bewildered when we play these “lower division” team and lose or almost lose. Losing these games frustrate me more then losing Pac-12/10/8 games. In theory shouldn’t we be able to recruit better players being a “division one” school? I just don’t get it.
      Are these really “lower division” conferences and if so what makes them “lower division? School size? And if they aren’t really “lower division” then why not entertain creating a west coast conference with them?

  5. So reading the opponent previews it seems like a lot of the team’s weaknesses are on the offensive line which could bode well for OSU and the defensive line. I’m hoping we see some guys breakout this season like Lolohea, Faamoe, Sio, Rawls, Shippen, the new DT. If these guys can step up the DL can take a big step forward. I feel like its a make or break year for Legi especially considering the fact that the OLs are down throughout the conference and can no longer blame Tibs scheme.

    • It’s a good rotation for the DL, especially if Hodgins can come back. There should be enough depth to get a push up the middle on passing downs.

    • By all accounts Chatfield seems like the real deal. Rawls and Sio sound like they could be difference makers this year. With Bray’s much better, more aggressive scheme, I think their DL could be sneaky good this year a la some of those Wazzu d-lines under Leach. This is certainly the deepest most talented Beaver team Smith has had in his tenure. Hope they steer clear of any major injuries. There will undoubtedly be injuries, just depends how severe and to whom.

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      Every once in a while the Mariners get those loyal fans believing. Don’t fall for it. They’re due for an 8 game losing streak. Just threw their 3 best arms at Astros. Astros coming off a doubleheader vs Yanks with depleted bullpen. Mariners playing to capacity crowds and get absolutely violated. Typical.

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        Haha! Here we go again. Yep getting swept by a top 3 team in baseball without your best player in the lineup means panic. The astros started two of their best and Verlander is the first to 13 wins in MLB. I’ve already laid out the rest of the schedule. Yeah getting swept sucks but says nothing about the rest of the season. But keep on not believing lol. Even with they sweep they have the best record in AL the last 30 days.

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            Haha, sorry to break it to you, no dents. You need to work on your predictions pal, you missed another one, lol.

            It seems that facts, logic and apparently the mariners really bug you. I wonder if you were born with some mental condition.

      • Like him or hate him but Dusty Baker is one of the best coaches in the MLB. His claim to fame is the “Dusty – Dusty – Dusty!” chant that me and my buddies starting at Dodger stadium when he played and I was a youngster.

      • 110% 2008 vs USC.

        That game made me a football fan. I was a senior in college at the time and had never in my life cared about football. Knew the basic rules, went to a couple games with friends over the years, but really couldn’t care less.

        But I went with college friends to that game and the atmosphere was so wild and the result was so awesome that it made me a fan overnight. I rushed the field, then went home and started learning and researching the team and football in general. I don’t think I’ve missed a Beaver football game since.

        It also opened the door to the NFL for me a few years later, and I’m now a fanatical fantasy player.

    • Hard to pick just one:
      -2001 Fiesta Bowl
      -2006 win over Cal
      -2007 Civil War where Sieverson destroyed Nike
      -Quiz vs USC game (I think it was 2008?)
      -2020 Civil War
      -2021 vs USC

    • Tough to pick, but I would have to say the ’06 Civil War. My brother is good friends with Jordan Kent and he’s an awesome guy. So watching him have a great game, but having the Beavs still win in the final minutes on Serna’s leg was cool. I was at the game with my other brother (Also a Duck grad and fan) and he got heckled by some drunk guy on the way out and that guy was lucky I got in between things, because my brother was just about to drop him like a sack of potatoes. Anyway, made for a very memorable game.

        • My favorite games were back in the day when the “new” side was asphalt. Some guy with a beaver tattoo on his chest. Didn’t matter the temperature, he was going to show it off. Chest tattoo guy, are you here??? That’s when I knew beaver fans were loyal.

    • 13

      For me it was 1998 Civil War. Turning point game for the program.
      Double overtime win, kept oregon out of the Rose Bowl. Their fans showed up to the game with boquets of roses feeling like they had it in the bag. After the game, the roses were smashed all over the field.
      Simonton was a stud. Defense played hard. Terrible weather. Lots of 4th quarter/overtime drama not to mention the Beaver fans rushing the field prematurely and spending the rest of overtime crowding the sidelines of the field. It was a crazy environment. Best game i’ve seen in person, any sport. So good

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_wqzFF6E2_s

      • I only saw OT of this game, but it was the first OSU game I was ever able to catch on TV and the starting point of my fandom

      • I was at this game too! Rushing the field was awesome….I think the only time I’ve ever done that. Being a student at the time was amazing. The program had a special ambiance about it, players and fans getting healthy dose of confidence like anything could happen, beaver players rolling in games like “We gonna crash and fuckup the party” — teams would not expect to come to Corvallis and win, pretty much from that season onward.

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      Love 06/08 USC, 06 Civil War, but a single play I’ll always remember for the wrong reasons is Reggie Bush’s 2004 USC fog game punt return. In my opinion Reggie Bush maybe the greatest college football player of all-time and watching him from the student section catch that punt on the beaver’s side line, spin off the first hit and reverse field was something special.

    • I think they would be smart to take 2 considering the struggles they’ve had recruiting the position. Also you never know if they don’t pan out, get hurt, transfer etc. Until they get solid depth and production at the position I would almost over recruit the position. They should try to bring in lots of walk ons at the position and see if they can develop into a solid role player like Anderson.

  6. 1967 vs USC and OJ. That winter quarter I went to a job interview. I was going to be interviewed at the desk/table closest to the door. The guy who was going to be interviewed at the back of the room had not shown up yet. So the two interviewers were talking to each other while they waited. The other interviewer could not stop talking about he had just interviewed the guy who had kicked the field goal that beat USC.

  7. The overtime civil war victory was my favorite. When Simonton ran it in to seal the deal, fans already on the sidelines, the place went nuts.
    They were gonna put new turf down, so people started tearing up the old stuff. I went over to where he scored the winning touchdown, and cut out that goal line and a piece of the end zone, right where he stepped. Still have it, rolled up, in a corner of the garage.

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    Had a college apparel designer reach out to the beavrecruiting acct to setup some type of cross promotion deal. So in the interest of full discloaure, if you see me tweeting about OSU retro t-shirts in the near future, i’m getting a freebie out of the deal.

    #Influencer

    • What teams would actually be lucrative enough to make it worth it to bring into the Pac? How much lower are those schools academic standards?

      It would be nice to add a Fresno or a SDSU if they could boost the tv deal money but how much does it compromise academics? I know they’re in high populous areas but do they have a very big following? For those teams it would probably increase their visibility and and fanship. This in turn could make those schools much bigger and stronger in the “Big football scene”.

      • At this point, unless academics is bringing in boat loads of cash, who gives a shit. Other than Stanford, most of the other PAC schools have decent middle of the road academics. I can tell you first hand that my engineering degree from OSU is not equivalent to MIT, John’s Hopkins, Stanford. I would rather see the PAC live than die due to acedemics.

    • The NCAA needs to stop letting conferences dictate broadcast deals and only set up tv contracts for division1 football as an entire league.
      It’s bad for the sport to let teams cannibalize each other.
      Imagine if the MLB or NFL left broadcast contracts up to the individual teams. Every Monday Night Football game would be Giants vs Rams.
      Scrap conference tv rights and split tv revenue among every FBS team so we can start to get some parity in the sport instead of the same 10 teams having the only legitimate shot at winning a title.

      • Good thought in theory, but what stops the ‘power conferences’ from quitting the ncaa? It’s technically voluntary, right? They’ve already as much as said they don’t give a shit about college athletics as a competitive league, it’s all about the dollaz!

  9. Has there ever been a Hard Knocks type production for college teams? Not talking the last chance u type of thing but just following a team without highlighting drama. Maybe someone can pitch the Beavs doing it and help them get a high profile recruit or two that wants exposure to sell their sweet custom shirts.

    • Ironically, or perfect for OSU, recruiting is on an upward trend, Reser is getting “finished,” Smith has them getting competitive in keague play, and “hard knocks” is unnecessary. Just need a PAC conference…

    • Back in 2015-2017, Showtime did a documentary show entitled, “A Season With …”. It ran 3 seasons and featured Norte Dame, Florida State and Navy. Watch led it when I got a one-month free trial to Showtime. Thought it was an interesting watch as they followed the coaches and players around week to week throughout the season.

  10. Speights is the only Beav on the media Preseason All-PAC team.

    Gray, Kipper, Grant, Wright, Colletto, and Loecher all on the second team. I’m surprised Grant and Wright got the nod over Oladapo.

    • I have seen developers slow down the pace of building out subdivisions, which is a little funny because supply constraints remain a issue in housing. But other than everything being crazy expensive everyone seems to be chugging along.

      • Same here about developers and even smaller custom home builders.
        Now, if ya ask about inflation………bought any grain related products lately? Those pastries ‘ol Lindsay loves are up 25% or so.

          • Demand destruction has been said to keep gas prices somewhat in check; lots of factors involved so not easy for me to draw that conclusion.
            How about demand destruction in the agricultural area? When growers cut back on fertilizer (just can’t afford it) that’ll have downstream impacts on food. Can the effect of demand destruction be felt fast enough on time sensitive commodities like fertilizer?
            Maybe there are better examples of “time sensitive” areas where demand destruction doesn’t apply.

          • Lindsey’s pastry problem could be a good benchmark for the FED with their inflation problem. They should graph that and use it as a main data point. If she can still buy the same number of pastries, they need to hike.

          • I dunno it might be going on now, you asked about seeing a recession in our personal lives. Which as a mid-career professional with mid-career professional friends that don’t really drive luxury cars or have huge mansions most haven’t seen much of a squeeze yet.

    • Chapman University has repeatedly forecasted key economic indicators accurately for years. They predict a recession to officially begin early to mid 2023.

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    YouTube recommended the free MLB game of the week, so I tuned in. First game I’ve watched this year. Brewers vs Twins. First pitch I saw was a guy swinging at strike 3. Lol. Saw one pitch and a K. Decided to see what the next guy would do. Correa, struck out on an 0-2 pitch. Lol. Turned that off immediately. What a total garbage product. Zero action.

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    It already looks like 3* DB Jalen O’Neal is already looking elsewhere after committing to Oregon State not even 2 weeks ago. He posted recently about trying to increase his offer list from 9 to 30 by the end of his senior season, and there’s no reference to OSU on his Twitter. I know it’s not uncommon for recruits to receive offers after they’ve committed, but I don’t get why you’d care about getting more offers if you’re already settled on a school, unless it’s to “prove the doubters wrong” by getting their attention and spurning them by staying with OSU?

  13. Don’t know who the new commit is yet. Cullen Fite was supposed to announce this week, but thought he was announcing on 7/31.
    Also a couple of guys who have had crystal balls for the last month who never announced anything, like Isaiah Chisom and Andrew Johnson. All 3 seem like the most likely candidates, but we’ll know soon enough

    • “Police caught Aydon in a stolen car at a motel. He has been charged for two counts of first-degree robbery and one count of possession of a stolen vehicle. His bail was set at 25,000 dollars.”

      What a fucking dumbbell. I can’t wait for the cte defense.

      • Got just several hundred dollars in the robberies. Robbing convenience stores is just as stupid as shoplifting from the dollar store. Low reward and high penalty.

    • How can a guy that size be hard to find? Just sent a drone above Oregon.

      I guess he couldn’t find an NIL deal he liked?

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    I was digging through the offer sheets of our commits yesterday and…it’s pretty impressive.
    -11 of 13 have at least one other P5 offer, and most have lots more (The other two still have G5 offers)
    -9 of 13 have at least one other P12 offer
    -5 of 13 have either Oregon or Washington offers, or both
    -We beat out the entire P12 North for Aiden Chiles, among other P5 offers
    -Of our 3 D-linemen, the worst offer sheet still contains 8 P5 offers

    By offers, I can’t ever remember a class close to this in top-to-bottom depth. And the Dline hits! Hope we can hang onto everyone, but Smith and company have had an impressive summer.

    • So with NIL, why are we getting one of the best classes ever (in terms of other programs wanting these guys)? Is JS slinging McDonald bags?? He’d be the most unusual suspect to be a cheater IMO.

      • Others are more informed than me, but how does NIL and market size affect each other? Pretty quickly you can have top recruits on the same team competing against each other for NIL dollars, so maybe it makes more sense to go somewhere else where you’re a bigger fish.

    • Yes agreed that the players offer sheets have been impressive especially compared to past years. Coach Smith has a good track record of keeping verbal commits until signing day and hopefully that continues.

      • A big fish in the Corvallis pond gets free Benny’s donuts and possibly a gift certificate to Claudes.

        A little fish in the Los Angeles pond still gets a bag of cash

    • That’s really pretty impressive. I doubt any prior HC other than Erickson has done that. And today’s environment is much more challenging too with NIL and PAC uncertainty.

      Thanks for the summary.

      Now if he can address his gambling addiction…

  15. Austin and musgrave just gave interviews at pac media day, nothing ground breaking but good interviews.
    @ nuc, mike Parker has said during knights broadcast ferrer is going to be back

  16. Have not chimed in for a while, but I really like this recruiting class smith and co are producing. Expect more dominoes to fall soon as well…

  17. Honestly, if you were actually going to hire a player to promote something – I don’t think it would make much of a dent in the LA, Seattle, or Bay Area markets – Corvallis and Eugene probably – of course, this is based on the assumption that NIL money is a legit exchange for off-field activities of players and not an inducement to get them to sign on NLI.

  18. From PAC-12 media say: supposedly UCLA and USC leaving is helping P12 teams recruit against them. There are at least some HS kids from the west coast who don’t want to play in the Big Ten. Maybe Steven Jackson was right…

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      That would be great. And a lot of Midwest players probably want to play for every other team in that area over some teams from thew West…UCLA and USC might be viewed as imposters.

  19. 10

    LA Times article says that USC president squashed any idea of expansion last year and that
    Lincoln Riley had an idea when he was hired that USC was planning/preparing to make a move in the near future, didn’t quite admit he knew about the Big10 maneuver, but was assured they were making some move.
    I hope USC struggles to recruit in all sports because of the amount of travel athletes will have to do.
    A good rule of thumb is “if you make a decision driven solely on money, it is probably a bad decision”
    UCLA has no business trying to tag along.

    • Yup, money is the only thing driving this, otherwise, it makes zero sense. And what’s coming out now seems to point to the Big 10 and USC having been in discussions for a while now. UCLA feels like a last-minute tag-along. The home run for the Big 10 would be USC/Notre Dame.

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    So I just watched Smith’s media day press conference. Nothing really of major value there. They had a intro with highlights and what not. Not that many people would really notice but Aydon was in it. You would think that they would want to distance themselves from him but I’m sure they probably already had it made before the arrest happened. Might be worth taking him out of it tho.

  21. Has anyone been able to find the Pac 12 media day interviews with Austin and Musgrave? I’ve only been able to find Smith’s.

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