Home Football UCLA @ Oregon State (Game Week)

UCLA @ Oregon State (Game Week)

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Super interesting game. I was looking at some historical stats, and the Beavs are 17-43 lifetime vs UCLA but 8-14 at home. Still awful, but better. Only 17 wins ever vs UCLA. We also only have an average of 15 points scored. This of course is a different Beavs team with more talent than those, but to me it suggests the historical talent mismatch that’s likely still in place to some degree.

That said, I think the Beavs feed off the crowd and get it done. I want to see DJU running to get 1st downs and extend drives. That skill could be really useful in this game and a place for the Beavs to get some advantage.

My biggest concern is Smith, who’s game decisions are a full blown liability. Could cost us in this one if he continues to be reckless.

27-24 Beavs.

331 COMMENTS

  1. This week the B12 will ramp up. Hope this doesn’t become a distraction.

    Regarding UCLA, this game will come down to our OL. Got to open holes for run game and give DJU time. If so, Beavs win

    • I predict Beavs and Wazzu to B12 will be announced before end of October. I don’t have “sources” but I do have friends (coaches, athletes, administrators) at both schools and I can say there is something brewing

      • If some deal is reached with the BIG 12, I don’t think it’ll be for next season and wouldn’t be announced formally until August 2024. I think OSU and WSU will want to maximize what they can get of the remaining Pac 12 assets and any future earnings due the Pac 12. They just need to make sure the athletes understand the plan so there isn’t some mass exodus. No sources either, just my guess.

        • This timing is correct.

          While we can probably get away with saying the Big 12 will merge with us on X date, and the Pac-Whatever will go on, it provides an argument that we were just scheming with house money, all along.

          I mean, we are, mostly because we were gifted it. But adherence to the technicalities still need to be the rule. It’s what got us here, and it’s what will get us out.

    • I don’t think there’s going to be a lot of running room, which is why I think the QB run might have to be a factor. But, I hope we can run with our back. That would be more ideal obviously.

      • I think you’re right but I could see us breaking 1 or 2 long runs. Probably going to see a lot of 3rd and long. Got to give DJU some time to convert those. I think we need 24 points to win it which won’t be easy against UCLA

  2. PFF grade comparison:
    Offense-
    Passing- adv OSU
    Receiving-adv OSU
    Pass blocking- adv OSU
    Rushing- adv OSU
    Run blocking- adv OSU

    Defense
    Run defense- adv UCLA
    Tackling- adv UCLA
    Pass rush- adv UCLA
    Coverage- adv UCLA

    Weirdly enough, we have three common opponents already: SDSU, WSU, and UCLA.

    Beavs have been more consistent, as UCLA wet the bed on the road at Utah. Home field advantage may be the deciding factor in this one, with Moore seemingly still finding his feet. He looked better at home against WSU, but how does he handle the Reser crowd?

    Their offensive profile is very similar to ours with a strong run game, good OL, and a QB with talent that has had ups and downs. I’d still give us the edge at QB.

    Their defense has been solid all year with basically no weaknesses.

  3. 3
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    UCLA forced 4 turnovers against the Cougs and won by 8 at home.
    Utah had a pick-6 on the first play from scrimmage and only needed 14 points ot win that game in SLC.
    SDSU was in the game until UCLA forced a red zone turnover in the late 3rd IIRC, and SDSU folded thereafter.

    Chip will see the hurry-up as his ticket and try to recreate Mariotta against the Beavs with Moore. They will go uptempo but the Beavs will have chances for turnovers and big plays from the defense.
    On offense, Beavs need to be ok with the NFL approach in this one, take the points, punt with no errors, field position slugfest and wait for the big play to happen rather than forcing a big play. I like the Beavs chances to run right at them, side line sweeps likely wont work, but you still have to try the fly sweep, toss sweep etc to keep the linebackers wide. If Fuaga is out, it may be an issue for the running game.

    I’m hoping DJU is even more comfortable at home and repeats the Cal performance. I expect we will need it.

    Sturdivant is a good/not great receiver and Moore is good/not great yet qb. Steele is a good/not great rb, but all need to be taken seriously.
    OSU coaches should be studying Utah/UCLA film and planning to use Scalley’s approach until UCLA proves they can beat it.

    Beavs at home is at least a 7 pt advantage.
    Beavs win 28-20 and hit the break 6-1….

  4. For me, a lot of it comes down to if we are getting the WSU/Cal defense or the Utah defense. I’m worried it’ll be more of the former because it seems like we got a break with Utah being so one-dimensional w/o Rising. Also, DJU looks so much better when he gets a chance to set his feet. Will the O-line be able to give him time against a really strong UCLA front seven? Not trying to be negative, just think this is going to be a tough one. Counting on Moore to make a couple of freshman mistakes to swing the game the Beavs’ direction.

    • Good points here. UCLA has the best pass rush we’ve faced by far. Pass blocking has been the weakness for our OL and pressure is DJU’s achilles heel. We have to win on the ground or not at all.

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    Not optimistic about this one considering how Utah manhandled our OL, and Cal ran to daylight via the hurry up offense. This UCLA team should be in the conference championship if they win Saturday.

    UCLA 34-13

  6. I believe OSU defense vs UCLA offense will come down to the first down play. The hurry up offense is only really effective when you have success on 1st down and OSU struggles against hurry up offenses.

    • Sedge reports JS said Cooper Jr, Robinson, and Fuaga all have a chance to return this week, adds that there were no long-term injuries coming out of the Cal game.

      • I absolutely love that a Beavs sports site accidentally called itself sedge, and it makes more sense and is cooler than what was intended by many measures.

  7. For those who never tire of the realignment scenarios… Zags.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/gonzaga-big-12-resume-high-level-conference-expansion-talks/ar-AA1hVGZE

    Merging with the Big 12 would make sense, if our Olympic sports can maybe merge with several WCC/Big West schools and we add a couple MWC schools in a couple years.

    Instant mega-conference with its own network and access to Texas, Cali, and Florida, in cross-divisional play, while staying close to home for most participating sports.

    I don’t see how this is financially doable with ESPN or FOX as partners, unless they’re willing to pony up a lot more for several new schools, just to prove they’re not a real trust.

    The only problem with that is that there is always someone left out.

    • Starting price….$50m per school?

      Which at that point, why the fuck did this dismantling of the entire conference happen?
      Oh yeah, because ESPN though lt they could get away with a lower price point and a bunch of teams thought they weren’t worth more.

      • I don’t know if that much would happen, but forcing ESPN to give fair shares to non-football schools plus full shares to another four to six schools (in a market where they have almost no reach, as of next year) might be worth it, if they can finally kill off the Pac 12 Network.

        • Remember also that the B1G is using their equity in their network as leverage in each new media negotiation.

          A new Pac-Big 12 merger could sell half the equity to ESPN, in the same kind of deal FOX made. This leverage is more valuable than the face value of the equity itself.

  8. I haven’t watched UCLA at all this year. Are they really that formidable? They only put up 7 against Utah, and gave up 14 to that pretty terrible Utah offense.
    And we get them at home on homecoming/dad’s weekend, with the get-in price already up to $120 on the secondary market.
    Reser is going to be loud this weekend. Should be a fun game to attend.

  9. Due to the scheduling quirks and covid, this will be the first time OSU and UCLA have played in Corvallis since 2015. A 41-0 UCLA win.

    Smith is 1-0 vs UCLA with a win in LA in 2019.

    Chip Kelly has not been to Reser since 2012. He is 2-0 at Reser as a HC.

  10. 3
    6

    Hate saying it, but Beav defense kinda sucks eggs, made Cal’s Mendoza look all-conference. Coupled with the gambler random decisions, gonna say Beavs don’t win unless they shorten the game with solid running and play turn-over free….Beavs win if they can get to 150 yards w/ zero INTs, otherwise my gut says they lose a close one….27 – 20 Bruins

  11. Our saving grace may be that UCLA really hasn’t played a decent running team yet. Their interior DL is bad and the defense is more tuned to stopping a WSU-style attack than our offense.

    • “UCLA really hasn’t played a decent running team yet”:
      To date the Bruins opponents have averaged under 3.3 yds/carry. Beavs 5.3, so yeah, pretty significant difference in season long rushing performance.

      As to passing, Beavs have just slightly more pass yds/game than the average of the Bruins previous opponents.
      Looked at that way, one could say that the Bruin D hasn’t faced anything superior to the Beavs passing game either.

      Just noticed too, Beavs are 100% in the RedZone while UCLA is only 56%
      I’m feeling better about this HOME GAME Saturday!

      Stats from https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/

      • The feel should be like the Riley debacle against Texas in the Alamo Bowl.

        They are geared to chase a pass-happy offense. They have great edges and long backers ready to pounce on the line or drop in coverage.

        But those type of players rarely hold up to the game being taken to them. If we hand off to Storm Woods for four or five straight plays, so he can run over Alex Okafor, instead of Okafor running by a certain sieve on pass plays, we can win games.

  12. New Wilner paywall article :News: Pac-2 and Pac-10 have agreed to mediation with preliminary injunction hearing looming next month

  13. Hysterical.

    First they announce they are leaving. Then they state they didn’t announce they were leaving. Now they say they announced but it was within the by-laws.

    So three stories and no adherence to the by-laws at any turn, but they are certain they acted within the bylaws?… then why three stories?

    • Technically it was Kliavkoff who said they didn’t announce they were leaving. The 10 teams haven’t made a comment until today.

      I don’t think those 10 teams would agree to enter mediation today if there was already a Pac2/Big12 merger in the works.
      And they also wouldn’t enter into mediation if they thought their arguments to maintain voting rights were a slam dunk.

      They don’t want to go to court, which is why they are suddenly dropping the motion to dismiss at the last minute, while also claiming they want to work on a resolution.

      The Pac2 shouldn’t settle unless they’re getting more than they ever hope from 2 years of shared playoff payouts plus the value of the Pac12 assets, plus a media deal. That’s plenty to cover any legal fees that come out of a court battle and still feel comfortable going forward.

      • There’s too much gray area for the T10 to feel good about their chances, but as previously mentioned, the T10 have more to lose in discovery than PAC2 have to in litigation.

        Most likely there have been discussions with the Big12, but the PAC2 are waiting to see what their financial situation is before discussing media rights shares.

        • There’s no gray.

          UW joining the case is to put it in mediation, where they can avoid discovery. If they let it play out to court, they’d be lambasted in the press, before it even got there.

          Stalling is all they have, and they don’t really have much of that.

  14. 6
    1

    Pac-12 awards
    DJ Uiagalelei was recognized Monday as the Pac-12’s offensive player of the week and left tackle Joshua Gray was named the offensive lineman of the week.

    https://gazettetimes.com/sports/beavers-sports/football/oregon-state-football-notebook-smith-hodgins/article_4545f832-66e4-11ee-955d-dff49b1a63c2.html

    And, on the end of the PAC12, Eggers has comments from several ex athletes (includes notes on their current situations, interesting). Colletto, Simonton, Baker, Jaydon Grant, Matt Moore, Charlie Sitton, others.
    https://www.kerryeggers.com/stories/from-baker-to-colletto-to-fouts-to-miller-thoughts-on-the-pac-2-madness-and-other-things

    • “Let me say this: I believe the majority of the people who go to Oregon State and commit and wind up playing for them, it’s not because of the media exposure. The people in the building is the reason why most of them go to that school. That’s what makes Oregon State special. I don’t think that will change.”
      -Jack Colletto

      Interesting comment from a guy that just left. I’m sure this is referring to many of the guys that are still there.

  15. The UW motion to dismiss they filed today is pretty great. They say it should be dismissed because of 3 arguments. And even if OSU/WSU did show those 3 arguments are flawed, OSU/WSU have not shown irreparable harm.

    https://twitter.com/NicoleAuerbach/status/1711490381894836536/photo/1

    1. “well established law holding that members of a voluntary associate should be left to interpret their own bylaws”
    2. “Court lacks statutory authority to issue requested relief without all affected parties present”
    3. “WSU/OSU cannot join all indispensable parties”

    So argument 1 is already bunk, since the bylaw in question specifically calls for a “court of competent jurisdiction” to provide injunctive relief. The bylaws specifically say courts could/should get involved.

    And 2 and 3 come down to the Pac10 members don’t have to show to court because they’re not governed by matters in Colfax county (except all 10 teams have played football games as well as other sporting events in Colfax county for years now.)

    Oh, and OSU/WSU haven’t shown evidence of irreparable harm.
    I believe voting to dissolve an existing organization and taking the assets from that organization is irreparable harm. Unless they think we can just magically create our own comparable conference out of thin air.

    • 5
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      From the piece:
      WSU and OSU released their own statement Monday, contending that the 10 schools are “relying on flimsy arguments to try to escape accountability” and that the duo has the right to determine the future of the conference.

      Really like that the TWO schools aren’t backing down here, language that shows backbone…..Love it.

      It gets better!
      Per the big zero, more of the statement: They are relying on flimsy arguments to try to escape accountability for their actions. It won’t work. Their decisions directly damaged the Pac-12 and are causing real harm to the Conference, OSU, WSU, student-athletes, and the people of Oregon and Washington.

  16. 14
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    “The future of the pac 12 should be decided by the schools that stay, not those who go.”
    -Statement from OSU/WSU

    I love that the messaging has been clear and unequivocal

  17. Looks like the 10, thinking about themselves first and foremost, never imagined this senario. Now backtracking they certainly have no regard for OSU and WSU. The fact that they already have a 24/25 schedule certainly looks like they are leaving. My concern is the powerful people associated with the 10. Hard to get justice when the movers and shakers get involved. Hopefully that doesn’t happen and justice prevails.

      • “There is also the matter of a nonrefundable $15 million deposit each school gave the Big 10…”
        This per UCLA’s contract with the Big 10, according to the Bill Farley piece linked below by Nicebeaver.

  18. This guy has a blog post where he’s posted a copy of a letter USC sent to the Pac12 after the Pac12 blocked USC from not only voting in conference matters, but also did not invite them to meetings.
    I’ve seen people argue that USC/UCLA/Colorado were only disallowed from votes on future media deals, but that simply isn’t true.
    In fact, USC comes at the Pac 12 with the same arguments as UW tried to argue today, where they say they have not given notice that they’re leaving the conference early, they’re just notifying the conference of their post August 2024 plans to join another conference, and they still should be included in conference related business matters.

    Funny thing here is if the T10 had gotten together and held a vote to dissolve the conference, back before they told the world they were leaving, they could have easily gotten the necessary votes together. Fortunately, their timing was poor.

    https://billfarley.substack.com/p/comments-on-the-latest-court-filings?r=of4cg&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

    • Par for the course for decisions coming back to bite the PAC12.

      Next question is what was the PAC12’s response? Seems like it was enough for USC/UCLA not to sue. Colorado got the same treatment. I think they did protest the decision right away. UW/Oregon acknowledged they were giving up their voting rights.

      What a mess.

    • It’s a stupid argument, because the bylaws don’t say anything about leaving early, except that if it occurs, the Conference receives all media revenues from those who did so.

      They only say that giving notice between two specific dates removes the school from the CEO Board.

      They’ve given notice.

      It’s really that simple.

  19. 2
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    Wherever we end up, it would be great to know where we’re going, and have a buffer of money for a couple of years along the way. In that in between period though, we should take an independent tour and schedule the hell out of P5 schools that all look like weekly bowl bangers that BIG media want to pay for and promote. Line our coiffures for a moment and sell the brand as the new team in Oregon worth your views. With even 7-5, 8-4 seasons, we could ride those coattails into whatever happens over the next decade as the entire CFB house of cards falls.

  20. Pretty slow day on this site so let me offer the latest “news of the [sports media] world” from today’s Wall Street Journal.

    In a story titled “Activist [investor Nathan] Peltz Grows Impatient With Disney” we find that “When Wall Street analysts began reducing their target price for Disney shares, it caught Peltz’s attention and contributed to his sense that Disney wasn’t on a path to financial health.” Last Wednesday, we learn, Disney stock reached “its lowest level in more than nine years.”

    Under a subheading called “ESPN’s future” we see: “ESPN has said it is preparing to transform the network into a fully direct-to-consumer streaming service in coming years.” [This was being discussed last July, but apparently the UW football coach, he with the earnest desire to have his team appear only on linear TV, apparently was not reading the WSJ, but I digress]. The network, among other things, is talking to a lot of professional leagues, including MLB, “about a deal that would give it the right to stream local telecasts in some markets.” [This would kill operations like ROOT sports, that carries the Mariners.]

    One last tidbit, I always thought ESPN was a wholly-owned subsidiary of Disney’s but I learned in this story for the first time that Hearst owns 20% of the operation. What else Hearst owns, I couldn’t tell you.

    • 1
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      It’s amazing how much foresight can be gathered by reading the WSJ and other financial/business/economic rags. So much of what has happened to media companies and college athletics could have been anticipated based on economic analysis. My son’s economics professor has been way ahead of mainstream media and twitter heads with regards to P12 demise and overall world events. It fascinating to listen to really smart people make sense of it all.

      My attorney is a UW grad that believes that UW/P10/GK has a weak case. However, he believes UW and the other 9 have a tremendous amount of leverage in that they can delay resolution. Easy to draw this out for over a year. Eventually the P2 would lose ability to build schedules and eventually it would be impossible to rebuild the conference. UW has the power thru legal shenanigans to essentially destroy the P2 athletic programs. If they let the lawyers have full control, this is very possible. If the P2 can leverage their position into B12 before it’s too late to build a schedule for all programs including travel arrangements, then this could end well for Beavs. But, if a resolution doesn’t come before mid-November, that is a bad sign. Within the P2, I’m hearing optimism but I also heard that there was hope UW wouldn’t join the lawsuit… the fact they did isn’t a total surprise but it’s an indication that UW is going to fight this and play the delay game.

      • 5
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        WSJ isn’t a financial rag and hasn’t been one for several years.

        “However, he believes UW and the other 9 have a tremendous amount of leverage in that they can delay resolution.”
        Decent point, except that the outcome is worth more than their stall tactics, especially since we know their end dat, as they announced.
        And that their pathetic arguments will be recognized as such means they should be paying for all the lawyer bills.

        They have nothing.

        They just don’t want the truth to be told.

    • The reason for Disney’s underperformance, btw, isn’t because they’re just underperforming, as Peltz would have us believe.

      There was this writer’s strike that occurred.

      Duh.

        • They weren’t.

          They lost some 4 million subscribers in India, because their contract with whatever cricket league expired, so their YoY revenues were down, and the response was restructuring and lay-offs, which is all Peltz is going to suggest, anyway. He’s a broken record.

  21. Jim Williams is now reporting major interest in Wazzu and OSU from the BIG12 and ACC. They can’t move forward until the lawsuit is settled.

    Greg Swaim now saying the same thing but only the BIG12.

    Sounds like a P4 conference invite will be a part of the settlement.

  22. 1
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    Nelson Peltz is an average Joe who inherited wealth and used it to hire lawyers who could find ways to destroy companies from within.

  23. Watched the UCLA highlights,

    UCLA’s offense –
    Run game is everything for them. While Moore is extremely talented, his inexperience shows a lot so he needs help
    He can make the tough throws look easy but under pressure, he makes mistakes
    Since he’s a freshman, he tends to lock onto WRs. Opportunity for CBs to jump routes. Doesn’t always recognize coverages.

    UCLA’s defense
    – They dominated WSU’s tackles. WSU didn’t try to run in the first half so the pass rushers could rush with no consequences
    – WSU’s play calls never made adjustments at halftime. Kept throwing down only 1 point and UCLA rushing three. Could have gotten into 2nd or 3rd in short easily.
    – They tackled really well

    UCLA dominated TOP and WSU’s defense wilted in the heat

    Keys to the game
    – UCLA will probably do what WSU did. Try to overwhelm the offensive line and get DJU to throw the ball away. Oline will need to be on their game
    – Beavs will need to use their speed to stretch UCLA sideline to sideline and complete a deep throw to keep the defense honest
    – Bray will need to have a system that will confuse Moore into making mistakes. Keep him in the pocket. Can’t let another freshman QB have a game esp at Reser. Crowd noise will help a lot

    • 2
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      Seems to me the keys include running between the tackles to: (1) force UCLA to crowd the box and open passing options for DJ and (2) avoid 3rd and long. As said, O-line will need to be on their game.

      I expect the crowd to really help force Moore into mistakes and I do question the ability of the Bruin D to keep Martinez/Fenwick/Newell under a total of 180 yds (I know, to date they’ve kept opponents to 65 yds/game). They’ve not seen a rushing offense like the Beavs.
      Leaning toward a Beav win by over 10 pts.

  24. Someone suggested that DJ may just be BG with a stronger arm…a quick comparison looking at BG over the last 7 games of the regular season (all conference competition, 4 home games) compared to DJ so far, whose 6 games include 3 non-conference games and 3 home games, so not a fair comparison.

    DJ: 60.5%, 1,307 yards, 13 TDS, 4 INTs, 5 sacks, 76 rushing yards, 5 Rushing TDs.
    BG: 62.6%, 1,065 yards, 8 TDs, 3 INTs, 10 sacks, 19 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDS.

    I used CBS sports stats page and did not include BG’s game @ Utah because I recall he got thrown into that after Nolan was pulled(?).

    More scoring from the QB position and fewer negative plays. Let’s hope DJs recent efficient, accurate game against CAL continues going forward…its going to be needed.

  25. I’m trying to figure out the best way to watch the UCLA game. Pac 12 is broadcasting Wazzu on my Dish and the regular channels don’t have it. I saw that it’s supposed to be Fox, but the Fox I get on dish doesn’t show that. If I have to stream it, what’s the best you’d recommend?

    • You can pretty much get any game (including Pac 12 Network) on streameast.xyz. The only drawback is when you choose the game and when you click to play it, you will probably be redirected the first 2 or 3 times to gambling or streaming service pages. It’s a mild annoyance, just return to the page and choose the game and then the “play” icon. After that, you’re set – no sign-in or personal info required.

          • Yeah just the YT app on the Roku TV. I don’t need a subscription – people out in society stream the games on there for free. It’s very likely illegal, but they do it. Sometimes the games get taken down, but that was mostly in the past – this season most of the games have stayed up the entire game. Have a backup plan in case it does go down.

    • Sportsurge works great with multiple links. As stated get an ad and pop up blocker. If any of the links ask you to download something? Close that fucker and move on to the next link.

    • I can post a link to a working stream just before kickoff.

      I’ve tried to in the past and found my post was deleted. I’m not doing that again unless I have permission to do so from Angry.

      His site, his call

  26. Everything is in a holding pattern until the PAC12 lawsuit is settled. That not only includes the future for Wazzu/OSU but also CFP business (payout and structure for 24 & 25). Everyone is waiting for this to get settled before things can move forward. It is being speculated that the fact Wazzu/OSU are holding up business for the CFP is the leverage they need to get into either the ACC (less likely) or BIG12 (More likely). Wazzu & OSU have to come out of this with control of the PAC12 to keep the leverage. Dissolving the PAC is in the other big conferences best interests. A mediator has been brought in and is working on getting a settlement between the P2 and the other 10. If mediation does not work and Wazzu/OSU lose their lawsuit hello Mt West.

    • That’s some terrible speculation.

      The CFP could have done what they wanted last week, but they don’t have the votes to do it. They don’t have to wait until lawsuits are complete to make any changes. They just can’t.

      And I’m not certain the ACC and Big 12 want to lose that buffer. Once that’s gone, one of them are next.

        • 1
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          Whoa!

          An ignorant Beav.

          First, the requirement for the CFP to change the format is a unanimous vote.
          Second, the requirement for them to change the bylaws to make that moot is a 75% vote from the 12 voting members of the board.

          They don’t have the votes.

          Mike Aresco said he wouldn’t vote for this, and it’s pretty well understood Gloria’s conference won’t do it.

          It’s bullshit to the other G5 conferences, because it just lessens their chances and admits themselves to a life of also-rans.

          The Pac won’t be dissolved, because we have more than a hundred years of at-will contract law to fall back on. If any court finds the wording and valid subscription to such wording invalid, I can remove myself from any subscription at any time, no matter what I sign.

          You’re just lost on this, because you don’t understand simple language. 2Pac will not lose this battle, and no amount of wishful thinking will make that so.

          Thanks for the wishful thinking, homer.

          • I’m not saying the PAC2 will lose. Very likely they will settle or would win the court case. BUT if they did lose the members could vote to dissolve the conference. If that happened Schultz would not have a vote because the PAC-12 does not exist. This would be a highly unlikely scenario but is possible.

      • I think a lot of people are throwing around a lot of numbers. I think it’s officially $320m.

        That money comes from the CFP for buying out the remainder of the Pac 12 contract with the Rose Bowl, in order to make it a part of the CFP. But the Pac 12 has to still exist, or the money disappears or is equally distributed–something like $12m per school per year. This is why a reverse merger with the MWC doesn’t seem so silly. We could guarantee them more than the $20m they get from the CFP, and they could guarantee us a home.

        Think of what those kind of revenues, for even two years, could do for some of those schools’ programs.

        Now add in all the other assets the Pac Conference has–NCAA distro, the network, different bowl tie-ins with bigger money awards than the MWC has. Add the MWC NCAA distro and their similar assets, and we’re talking real money. We could take an unequal share of all these assets and over time finally be equal with the others, just so we could guarantee a clean transition from here to there, rather than the drastic haircut we know would happen if we just closed shop.

          • I’d rather go to San Diego, Fort Collins, and Vegas.

            Some of their teams are pretty good. With a little push, we could watch some sleeping giants emerge.

            And if we go Big 12, we also abandon California. That doesn’t seem like a great plan, especially since several teams just bugged.

          • Yeah, I don’t understand angry’s position that the MWC is basically high school football, it’s not and with more resources several schools could be great.

            That said, it does have some dead weight that I’d prefer to avoid. Pick 7; 9 football schools. More than enough. Round robin every year. I miss that.

          • It’s probably because he doesn’t watch the dregs of the Big 12, which is half of them at any given moment.

            But it’s not about performance. It’s about eyeballs on the product.

          • My 7 would ideally be:

            SDST
            Fresno ST
            Boise ST
            UNLV
            Air Force
            New Mexico
            Colorado ST (they need to add baseball)

            *I’d personally take Hawaii (football only) over CSU (my preference) or NM because it comes with 7 bonus games for TV but this assumes you grab a couple Olympic sports schools to have at least 10.

            Gonzaga and the University of San Francisco would be my preferred choices assuming Hawaii (open to adding 2 more Olympic schools to get to 12 but 10 works for me too)

          • The front range schools are a package, so you have to take Wyoming–historically a program that punches well above its weight in many sports, given their resources.

          • Yeah, I have heard that. I did come up with a more elaborate plan where the PAC convinces the Service Academies to go Independent in football with a Notre Dame like scheduling agreement with the PAC which fills half their schedule that includes them as part of the PAC TV deal. Ultimately I dislike that CSU doesn’t have baseball and would really like NM basketball plus Hawaii for the extra games they bring to a TV deal (maybe convince Hawaii to go independent with a scheduling agreement).

            I really don’t like the idea of just merging with the entire MWC though. Specifically I am not a fan of including NV, UTST, and SJST.

            I also like the idea of a full round robin schedule which limits you to 10 teams (I prefer 9 so you have a 4 Home/4 Away/4 OOC schedule every year).

        • A lot of Mountain West schools are in metros that produce good football talent. Upgrading these school’s facilities and increasing the assistant coaches’ salary pool would go a long way in retaining that talent.

          • Agree with this comment. You just need to look at Utah and TCU. They were part of the MW during the 2010 realignment. With better funding, their programs rose to new levels and their talent level increased.

            I say the Beavs and Cougs file so many various lawsuits that delay anything from happening until June 2024. At that point, the other 10 schools will have to leave the conference. There are too many assets to leave on the table with NCAA Tournament shares revenue, P12 library of games that could be sold to networks who need more inventory for their broadcasts, Rose Bowl affiliation, CFP access unless changes are made, and P12 network capabilities to sell off. There is way too many assets to give up without fighting to the death on this.

          • I don’t get the whole “watchable football” argument. Moving to the Big XII wouldn’t be more watchable than grabbing the six best Mountain West teams and having the flexibility to schedule five out of conference opponents.

            The Big XII is going to take a massive hit financially with Texas and Oklahoma leaving, and it’s going to show upon the field in a few years.

          • What would BSU, Fresneck, SDSU, CSU do with more $$? Adding a school like AF would be bad? Having a conference that extends from the rockies west to the pacific would be bad for travel, bad for recruiting?

            I mean if it’s the ACC or the above, it doesn’t even seem like a decision needs to be made. In fact, I can’t understand why calfurd took that fraying rope.

            BXII may be ok but seem on equal footing especially if the better mwc teams get an infusion of cash with a reverse merger.

  27. 2
    1

    Canzano with an article up behind a paywall. Says we called portland state to move our Aug game to early October then called them back and said never mind. Barnes refused to answer why apparently and told Canzano all options are still on the table. Sounds like we’re sticking to our guns and trying to stay the pac2 for now.

  28. 1
    1

    Beavs and Cougs actively working to develop a football schedule for 2024. Also understand they are working on other sports, too. IMO, this is an indication they are committed to long haul and are less likely to settle. B12 option could be fading at least any shorter term agreement

    • 4
      1

      His levity is impressive and gives me hope he’ll deal successfully with the increasing pressure over the back half of the season as the level of competition ramps up….I do think sometimes the team could benefit if he was more vocal and/or demonstrable.

      When Colletto came on the field on offense, I had the sense everyone on the field was elevating their their play to help him be successful and for the team benefit…I’m not sure anyone on offense is doing inspiring like that right now? I could be very wrong and hope so.

      • I feel the same. Good not to be over the top hyper, but he may be a little too laid back to inspire the rest of the team as did Colletto.
        The discussion of defensive coverages makes me re-think the fear I had that he wasn’t up to understanding the system; now I’m concerned that he may be too accepting of less than stellar. Life’s puzzling, especially from a distance.

        Still, he can get this team to the top of the conference without being in the Heisman discussion. Cut out the ints, pick up some yds on the ground, manage the RB stable, and make the occasional 30+ yd pass and we’ll be fine.

      • He’s not wrong. If the yucks aren’t in the same conference, they are in fact just another team.

        Do the yucks consider Boise to be a rival? They are close by. They play FBS football. They can’t seem to beat them, but they aren’t in the same conference so all those losses are to just another team, right?

  29. 4
    11

    As much as it pains me to say – I gotta be a Duck supporter this weekend and I hope that Nix has the game of his career against the Dawgs and hangs 50+ on them. Anybody within radio range of the Puget Sound region has to continually hear a barrage of how wonderful this Husky team is, how Penix is gonna win the Heismann, and this is the most talented and loaded team that ever existed on Montlake – it is fucking unbearable. Well, don’t ever forget it was the U of W that initially led the charge to boot OSU out of the PAC10 back in the early ’80’s because they “weren’t competitive enough”. I’d love to see these arrogant pricks get knocked back a few spaces in the AP, if not out of it all together.

    As far as the U of W petition to dismiss the lawsuit, good look with that. Discovery this time around will show U of W as the ringleader keeeping any other conference from looking at WSU or OSU.

    • I’d argue slobbering over everything thing this guy says is the dumbest thing ever, but I digress…

      Late games are:
      Bad for ratings …we’ve seen this historically and the networks use those stats to hold against teams that are forced to play the late games. According to that link though the last game Dionne’s team played in that slot was the highest rated game ever in that time slot

      Bad for fans that want to go to games and not be forced to stay overnite somewhere.

      Bad presumably for players according to him (although HS players manage to play at that time just fine, Friday Night Lights ring a bell?)

      I’ve seen complaints from every west coast fan base about late starts. We all know TV drives everything from game time slots, to conference team selections, to 30 play stoppages (for ad buys)…I’m not sure why this is all news, except now the guy with the sunglasses is saying it?

  30. 2
    1

    Wilner tweet this morning:”News: In a sworn statement in the Comcast case, commissioner George Kliavkoff said USC and UCLA had been removed from #Pac12 board – a potentially significant development for the WSU/OSU lawsuit”

    Seems this may shoot holes in the ‘we didn’t ever kick anyone off the board’ the traitorous 10 were spouting

  31. 4
    1

    Newest Pac2 related tidbit from Wilner today:

    “News: In a sworn statement in the Comcast case, commissioner George Kliavkoff said USC and UCLA had been removed from #Pac12 board – a potentially significant development for the WSU/OSU lawsuit”

    https://twitter.com/Surfking50/status/1712492608738529410

    More evidence for the precedent being set already. The Comcast case was about current business, rather than future business. And USC/UCLA were removed from the board for those conversations after they did (or didn’t?) give a notice of withdrawal (or future but not current withdrawal?)
    No matter what mental gymnastics they come up with at this point to argue otherwise, it’s been sworn in a court of law.

    • There’s an echo in here.

      They did it to USC/UCLA then again to Colorado months later.

      I’m not really sure how you argue against that.

      • 7
        2

        right, this is just more evidence that it not only happened, but they swore that it was the correct move in court and the conference continued to do business in that format.

        • 2
          2

          Also haven’t they been stating lately that it only applied to certain matters? This revelation would seem to be a contradiction

          These fuckers speak out of both sides of their mouths and wonder aloud why OSU/WSU were taken by surprise

          • I do like how they claim that conference matters should be handled by the conference, not the courts.
            But then when it’s pointed out that the conference has already decided how to handle these matters(of members losing board seats for giving notice of withdrawal) they want the courts to say it was unlawful and just wouldn’t make common sense to do it that way.

  32. 12

    Barnes signs a 3 year extension with OSU, per Daschel.
    Retains him through 2030.

    Seems significant, given the uncertain path in front of us.

    • He’s done well enough. No issues with this. People will complain about Tinkle, but they would have complained if Tinkle got poached after the Elite 8 run, too.

    • 4
      2

      I wouldn’t want to leave Corvallis if I was making 900,000 dollars a year either. He makes more than the school president, granted he doesn’t get the free mansion that she does. Money goes a lot further in Corvo than places like Seattle. Not to mention the job doesn’t have nearly as much pressure from boosters, fans and other admin to consistently have top programs as other schools put on their AD.

          • Huh ? I’m missing the tie in. I think you can complain about some things but…

            He got Reser finished
            His hires have been solid
            He knew when to cut bait with GA
            He’s navigated the current shit show well

            I admit I have a good relationship with him so not entirely impartial, I didn’t get a shitty email from him like angry-who also is not impartial, I know Casey doesn’t like him, but not sure why anyone would say he’s done a bad job all in all

          • If, as you say, Casey doesn’t like Barnes, I’m guessing that’s a function of the Luke Heimlich situation. For that matter, the institution as a whole (except Casey) failed miserably when the news first came out, illegitimately.

        • This actually makes sense.
          And from a financial view, plus a challenge worth playing, it really makes sense for him to settle.

          Be honest. You want to live in Seattle or Corvallis?

  33. 3
    1

    Shoutout to Saluni! He was an unsung hero on special teams. He was leading the way on both of Bolden’s big returns. Maybe he should try some fullback.

  34. 2
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    No one else finds it suspicious that dumb, I mean youngorst has just randomly shown back up in this thread?

    After silence for what? 2 years?

  35. 3
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    With more and more news coming out in favor of OSU/WSU, here’s what I think will be the agreement,

    All parties agree to business as usual for the remainder of the athletic year. Revenue is distributed as they would in any prior year.

    WSU/OSU are awarded the two sole board votes on matters facing the conference after Aug 1st 2024 when the others leave. Other schools get to participate in votes that affect this year’s sports but are barred from voting on items like dissolving the conference. I would think WSU/OSU would relinquish rights to the other schools history and media content that is owned by the PAC12. So schools can still use highlights from prior year’s games etc.
    There’s no case for departing schools to get a piece of the NCAA tourney shares.

    It does seem to me that the departing schools are afraid that if OSU/WSU get the sole boards seats, they’ll take vindictive action whether is be holding back revenue from this year or changing the rules of postseason eligibility. This agreement would ensure they can’t.

    Once this is done, then the CFP can figure out what do with the PAC12. Just know they will not give a 2 team conference an auto bid or payout a full share for the next two years.

    • I don’t think the CFP has a choice. They are still bound by NCAA rules that say a 2 team conference can exist for 2 years with a grace period. Also they need a unanimous vote according to their bylaws to change the 12 team playoff order moving forward. As long as the pac2 stay the course the cfps hands are tied til the 2 years are up.
      That I think and others have alluded to here could force one of the other P5 conferences to pick us up to make this turd in the punch bowl go away. I’m assuming there will be a another lawsuit if they try to screw us out of that money.

    • I thought changes to the CFP required a 100% vote of the 10 board members of which Washington State is one of those votes. If one or both of the Pac 2 schools made it, that wouldn’t be an auto bid, it would be one of the top 6 ranked conference champions. Or one of the top 6 ranked non-conference champions. The power 5 conferences have rigged the system to make sure the top 5 champions are power 5 in the way rankings are conducted.

    • 14
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      Why not play hard ball? Revenue payouts should go to the remaining teams. You leave, you lose PA12 revenue. It seems like simple common sense is thrown out because T10 are crying about their losses.
      You leave, you don’t vote. You leave, you don’t get revenue. They have left the conference, in a rather vindictive manner. Now they are countering principled arguments with ridiculous claims, easily disproven. None of them deserve PAC12 money at this point, since they all departed prior to the 2023 sports season even beginning. Half of them already have new schedules for their new conference.

      CFP isn’t in any position of strength other than saying it is unthinkable. Well, they had a hidden hand in forcing it all to happen anyway. Sankey and the rest of those hacks all knew the pot of gold was going to increase next year, and they figured out a way to reduce how many conferences would get payed, thereby increasing their conference payouts too. But it has blown up in their faces and now they are all crying about how unthinkable it is to have a 2 team conference receiving a full payout. Hold the line and stay consistent. The moment PAC2 shows weakness or gives ground, those jackals will pounce and demand full capitulation. If PAC2 holds all of the leverage, don’t negotiate as if you are only holding a pair of 3’s.

      • I agree, the revenue generated after this season goes only to who is left in the conference. But I think if they play hardball with the CFP, the other conferences won’t forget and any chance of getting into a power conference goes away forever. Banished to the Mountain West for the rest of time.

        • So let the Supreme Court decide antitrust matters or seek a Kings ransom to drop the lawsuits. I don’t get why you are concerned about being ostracized now or in the future. It is separate from the current leverage advantage. And inevitable anyway as things appear to be going. Use this as the opportunity to prepare for the next version of realignment when they will try to create a semipro league.

        • If we envelop the MWC and they benefit from the CFP system, even for two years, the rest of time could be really fun.

          The logic behind anyone but the B1G or SEC to want to change the current system fails, when we consider it’s the only leverage they have over their media partners, at the moment–if only for two years. The Big 12 and ACC would be next on the chopping block, if that buffer fails.

          It will be interesting to see who bids on the CFP, once this term ends. That media partner will be the one to dictate payouts, given perceptions. If the new Pac 12+ builds itself into a competitive market by that time, we would be hard to ignore.

          Hell, we’re already hard for ESPN to ignore. They have only Calfurd and the three non-FBS Conferences as their West Coast exposure. And I would say it’s likely the best of those three conferences will be picked clean by Yormark, if we don’t do it first–which would benefit ESPN, yet again.

        • 2
          1

          I should also say the bulk of the CFP payout to the Pac 12 will be for the Pac 12 allowing the Rose Bowl to not be our primary bowl associate, anymore. The contract ran for another two years, and the CFP wanted to expand ASAP.

          So the Conference receives that revenue, regardless of our Champion being one of the top 6 ranked champions or not. Those who are leaving claim that they deserve that revenue, because I guess they just think so. That’s the best legal case they’ve made, thus far. The other argument is that it’s ridiculous to pay two teams as a whole conference. I think, “Because we think so,” is a stronger legal argument.

    • “All parties agree to business as usual for the remainder of the athletic year. Revenue is distributed as they would in any prior year.”

      That’s all we ever wanted. Then the 10 can just pack their stuff and go.
      We shouldn’t release the rights to the Conference’s inventory. But it is fair to let each school use their own history, that which is owned by the Conference, with free license.

      The argument that 2Pac would do anything vindictive is spurious, on its face. We have business to attend to, and this silliness is distracting from that.

  36. 4
    1

    Wow, all the USAToday staff picking Beavers to win:

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2023/10/12/college-football-picks-predictions-week-7/71144175007/

    I’m going to be hoping the Huskies win and come into Reser in November as a top 10 team. After UO, looks like they are v. ASU, @ Stan, @ USC, v. Utah, then @ OSU…

    UO will be @ WSU, @ Utah, v. CAL, v. USC, @ ASU, v. OSU…

    i’m thinking UW comes into Reser undefeated, UO is at one loss by CW…

    After UCLA, OSU has a bye before going to AZ, then to Colorado, v. Stanford, v. UW, then @ UO.

    Going to AZ then right back to CO in successive weeks looks tougher than it did preseason. The Beavers inconsistent D, a mobile QB, the altitude and crowd have me concerned about @ CO. But if the Beavers OLine can allow them to RTFB they could be a one loss team when UW arrives.

  37. PHIL STEELE REPORT:

    Underdog is 10-5 ATS since 1999 with 9 outright upsets including 4 in last 6 meetings. Oregon State is 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS vs UCLA since 2008. Last met in 2019, Beavers were a 6’ point AD but led 21-0 2Q & 27-10 at halftime holding
    on for the 48-31 win. Visitor has covered 7 of last 9 including 4-1 SU & ATS since 2011. Oregon State opened the year as expected at 4-1 SU with a road loss to a ranked team in Washington State but a big home win vs Utah. Last week DJU hit 19-25-275 an Oregon State led 14-3 but a surprise onside kick was returned to the 19 and a fumble on their next drive and California went 49/7 for a TD to lead 17-14. Oregon State would convert on FIVE 4th downs including a 4&G 3 yd TD pass at 2:00 to lead 21-17 at halftime. Both teams got TDs on both 3Q possessions and California got a 2 pt conversion to pull to 35-32. Oregon State went 64/9 for a TD and then California lost a fumble and interception on their next two drives setting up 10 Oregon State pts, 52-32 and California went 75/5 for TD 1:04 left. California started 3rd string QB Fernando Mendoza (PS#144) who hit 21-32-207. DJ Uiagalelei is hitting 61% with an 13-4 ratio and Damien Martinez has rushed for 586 (6.5). Oregon State is allowing just 324 ypg. UCLA opened 3-1 losing to that same Utah team in Rice-Eccles Stadium. Last week Carson Steele rushed 30-140 and Dante Moore hit 22-44-290-1-1 while Cam Ward had his worst game in 2 years with 3&outs on 8 of 16 possessions and hit 19-39-197-1-2. UCLA missed a 1Q FG but led 9-3 and had a 246-114-yard edge and was 3&G at 5 but an 88 yd interception return TD with :00 gave Washington State the 10-9 halftime lead. Down 17-12 UCLA had a 33 yd FG blocked but drove 75/10 and 36/4 (after int) for TD’s to make the score 25-17 with 11:45 left. Washington State was SOD at 40 on last drive and UCLA had a 470-216 yard edge and 24-11 FD edge. QB Dante Moore is hitting 53% with an 9-4 ratio and their D is allowing just 254 ypg and holding foes to 119 ypg below their season avg (#3). Oregon State has taken on the tougher schedule (#49 vs #72). Oregon State is 15-1 SU and ATS at home the last 3 years and Reser Stadium is now complete after a couple of years of construction. Jonathan Smith is 12-1 ATS as a HF. The Bruins have dropped the last 4 on the road vs ranked teams. My computer has Oregon State 28-23 and the Average Game Grade has the Beavers by 4.1. UCLA has proven their defense is legit but the home road dichotomy is solidly on the Beavers here.

    BEST BET: #15 OREGON STATE 27, #18 UCLA 17 (BEST BET: OREGON STATE -3.5)

    COMPUTER FORECAST (UCLA-ORST):
    Rush Yards: 152-162
    Pass Yards: 204-214
    Total Yards: 355-377
    Points: 22.7-28.3
    EXP: 72-49

    Vegas Line: Oregon State by 3.5
    Vegas Total: 54 Points
    +/- Rating: Oregon State by 11.3
    Game Grade: Oregon State by 4.1
    L4W Game Grade: UCLA by 0.9
    Last Met Line: EVEN
    Last Met Score: Oregon State -23
    Points per Yards: Oregon State by 1.0

    PAC-12
    #8 Oregon 35, Washington 34
    #21 Notre Dame 37, #10 USC 31
    #16 Utah 26, California 13
    #19 Washington State 38, UCLA 24
    Colorado 34, Stanford 24

    NATIONAL
    #1 Georgia 48, Vanderbilt 6 (COMPUTER BEST BET: Georgia -31.5)
    #2 Michigan 40, Indiana 9
    #3 Ohio State 38, Purdue 13 (COMPUTER BEST BET: Ohio State -19.5)
    #4 Florida State 42, Syracuse 13 (BEST BET: Florida State -17.5)
    #6 Penn State 51, Massachusetts 6
    #11 Alabama 38, Arkansas 13
    #12 North Carolina 31, #25 Miami FL 28
    Pittsburgh 21, #14 Louisville 20
    #17 Duke 24, NC State 23
    Texas A&M 28, #19 Tennessee 27
    #22 LSU 34, Auburn 27
    #24 Kentucky 27, Missouri 24

  38. Poor Colorado doesn’t even kickoff until 7:22 due to EDPN controlling the kickoff times for their commercials and the Tulane/Memphis going late. Lol Prime time indeed. What a dummy.

  39. I’m a little confused here. I thought teams traded possessions in OT. Buffs scored. Stanford scored. Why do the Buffs get the ball back? There a rule change I missed?

    • No rule change. Buffs won the toss and chose offense in the first OT. Stanford chose defense to start the second OT. So Buffs started on offense in both periods. They did that in their game vs Colorado St too.

  40. That was a terrible PI call.

    Hunter didn’t even make a play on the ball… which fell about four yards away. He just went and hugged the CB, and then got a PI call.

    • Yeah hunter really won an Oscar on that one, and then Shedeur makes a huge mistake and forces that throw to the endzone that gets picked on 3rd down. Likely lost the game for them, all Stanford needs is a FG and their kicker is really good.

    • And what a stupid decision, You cannot give up a turnover in OT. Worse case the FG was still in play for the Buffs. Their kicker has looked decent so far this season. Shedeur was throwing like it was a Hail Mary situation.

  41. 10

    LOL!! Stanford humbles the Buffs and the media honks. How good is the PAC12 if Prime can’t beat a 1 win Stanford at home? A bunch of front running hacks around the country will not be able to explain this one. The horrible announcers spent the entire game talking about Colorado and then the rug was pulled out from under them.
    So funny to watch.

    • “Coach Prime, how do you explain getting boat raced 36-7 in the 2nd half?”

      Here’s the reality. Teams had very little tape on them early in the season. Now they have plenty.

      Stanford obviously made some very big adjustments at halftime. Believed they could come back and did. While CU just coasted.

      Talent alone does not win every game.

      Deion was great NFL player. Maybe even the best to ever play his position. As a coach? He sucks and needs to dial it waaaaaay back.

      Some of CU’s players have taken on the Deion persona. And think they are the greatest thing since sliced bread.

      Don’t expect anything humbling to come from those individuals.

      CU hasn’t boat raced anyone. They’ve won 4 games and 3 of them were close. They’re gonna have a rough go these last 5.

      This isnt Jackson State. This is big boy football. Receipts were kept. Time to issue refunds.

      Beavs shouldn’t worry about the game in Boulder. Play their game ans let the Buffs beat themselves. Because that’s what a poorly coached team does.

      • Even at Jackson St, with all that “NFL and D-1 talent” they lost their championship game two years in a row. That’s never mentioned by the talking heads. It doesn’t play into the hype machine.

    • Stanford decided to just keep throwing to the guy that Hunter was guarding. Dude had 300 yards receiving and Hunter was gassed.
      Kind of like deciding to run right at the rush DE and maul him all game rather than let him control the game.
      The hubris of thinking any player could be effective for 200 plays in the altitude is completely idiotic and Sanders has no respect for the kid or the game by continuing with that strategy.

  42. Can anyone else think of any good reason why you would choose to take the ball first in overtime? In the post game, Deion said it’s because he has a good quarterback who he trusts with the ball. Does he not understand how college overtime works? The 2nd overtime was such a great example of why you should always want to play offense second. I just cannot fathom why anyone would give up that advantage if they win the OT coin toss. In my opinion, it’s right up there with handing off the ball at the end of the game when taking a knee will win it.

  43. Massey Ratings ranks the biggest upsets of the year and 6 of the top 9 upsets are non conference losses by Big 12 teams.
    1) Miami-Ohio over Cincinnati
    2) South Alabama over Okla State
    4) Ohio over Iowa State
    5) Texas State over Baylor
    8) Wyoming over Texas Tech
    9) Colorado over TCU

  44. 2
    1

    I think this Duck/Washington game might be the only non-Beav game I watch all season. Should be a good one. Going to have to get out on the bike early today in 40 degree weather to make it home! I’ll get a Beav thread up now as well. It’s schedule to go live a half hour before the Oregon/Washington kickoff, and we can put that game’s commentary in that thread.

  45. 11

    Got some last minute tickets to the game tonight.
    I’ll be sure to hold up a sign that says “NiceBeaver” so you can all see that I’m a legit OSU alum on TV.

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