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Civil War Pregame

236

Let’s hear your predictions?

I’m genuinely concerned the Ducks might set the all-time yardage mark. Though, they might want to rest all their players at halftime, which will save OSU from another [negative] record.

I’m going with 70-14 Oregon, and they put up 850 yards. Knee jerk pessimism/overreaction to past weeks? Maybe. But you explain to me how the Beavers get one defensive stop. Then I might reassess.

236 COMMENTS

  1. 77-3.

    It will be ugly. 3 points may be generous. This team has given up, and I don’t see how GA can get them motivated to come together for this one after Saturday’s abortion.

    • Exactly my thoughts. If guys laid down on the last home game of the year and the senior’s last game, what hope do we have for this game? Underclassmen playing for fun and trying to impress their coaches I guess since playing for pride flew out of the stadium about mid second quarter last week.

  2. Probably in the 50’s to the teens.

    I don’t think Helf whacks us like that. If they kept the horses going they could put up 80 the way our D has been playing.

    I think STG hits pay dirt at least twice though if he does play.

  3. “…But you explain to me how the Beavers get one defensive stop….”

    A fumble is about all I can think of.

    That’s until the ‘ucks get down to about their 4th string, then there’ll be a chance of getting some stops.

  4. I think UO tries to let up but can’t. You can’t ask your 3 and 4s to not play hard. They are auditioning for next year too. OSU offense can’t stay on the field long enough to win time of possession even though the ducks score every 6th play (on average).

    Ducks throw 8 times the entire game.

    UO gets 3 TDs/Quarter first three quarters, 2 in the 4th. Beavs get a TD late in the 4th, miss the PAT

    UO 77 – 6.

    What’s the over-under for missed tackles?

    Now I’m depressed…

    • “I think UO tries to let up but can’t. You can’t ask your 3 and 4s to not play hard. ”

      Nor is it their responsibility to stop themselves.

      OSU should play the bench too, and those individuals are auditioning and should be motivated to hit, tackle, create turnovers, try to get noticed, particularly when more attrition is likely in the offseason.

      • Well said, OC.
        The injury report posted by Gina, along with Andersen’s track record tells me he’ll use the bench. Sheesh: Clarkson, Lucas, Scott, Strong, the list goes on:https://twitter.com/ginamizell/status/669328163424464896/photo/1

        Your point about the motivation for bench players is spot on…for those who haven’t already seen the writing on the wall and checked out. We’re gonna see who shows the “care factor”, and who has the skill to see plenty of action next season.

        As someone else said, only an injury to VA keeps this one closer than 30.

    • A few threads ago I predicted 102-3. But I haven’t been right all season so–

      Unless a miracle happens and the McMaryion to Collins connection is a surprise it will be ugly.
      Put Bolden on the bench.

  5. ESPN is being nice to the Beavs:
    Oregon State at No. 17 Oregon
    4 p.m. ET, FS1 (Friday)
    NAME SCORE
    Kyle Bonagura 45-0
    Kevin Gemmell 52-10
    Chantel Jennings 63-10
    David Lombardi 48-3
    Ted Miller 50-20

    If the Beavs keep the OU score under 50 that would be a victory of sorts in this situation. Ted Miller is drunk.

  6. a friend of mine asked me yesterday how many points I needed to feel comfortable taking the Beavs vs. UO. I said 90. We settled on 70. So I think I cover @ 70-3.

  7. The only thing that keeps UO under 900 yards as if their offense consistently gets short fields. I think OSU will get some decent punting yardage, for which UO offense will be thankful.

    Freeman is likely to be extra-motivated, and want to prove Doak Walker award committee they should have considered him; UO will want to say he should be in the Heismann conversation. OSU will have NO answer for either Carrington or Freeman. VAJr. already has confidence aplenty for OSU, and this game will be easy. Perhaps Helfrich is diplomatic, and empties the bench in the third, or at least midway through the third, and emphasizes PT for seniors that are not starting players.

    Best OSU can do is actually commit to running against a bad UO defense, but one that knows OSU is not a threat to throw the ball. Use all the time they can, but UO will still get quick scores. UW scored at will and with ease.

    I know stats are only stats, but the yardage and point totals will be ugly. This will be the 8th straight victory in the series, correct? It will be interesting who at OSU responds to this in the longer term (off season, 2017/18 seasons).

    • I noticed Sitaki said “We’re going to go down swinging.” and I don’t he was talking about wife swapping, so yeah, they might bring the house. Would that the house had the ability to get to – and tackle – the QB….

  8. I expect Helfrich to show mercy at times (kicking a FG instead of going for it on 4th) because he’s a nice guy. Other than that, I see: 800+ yards, at least one kickoff-return TD, at least two pick-sixes, and the Ducks converting the 2pt conversion on their first drive which was done in under 60 seconds.

    70-10

  9. I am going to go shopping with my wife on Black Friday (and I fucking hate shopping). That’s how much I am looking forward to watching this disaster. It will be the first Civil War I have not watched live or in person in over 20 years. Its a sad state of affairs.

  10. It’s unfortunate the Beavs are completely incompetent because this Duck team isn’t even very good. Adams is average and the D is actually pretty bad, even by their standards.

    • The only way that can happen is if the first team in overtime scores a TD and extra point, and then the next team kicks a field goal to seal the loss.

      Not happening.

        • I did try to set it up for a “for so many reasons” type of response. But I thought about it and can come up with this score hypothetically. 38 all going into 2OT. First team scores TD but has PAT blocked, and second team runs it back for two. Second team then fails to get it in the end zone.

        • Not technically impossible. Just impossible under any circumstance that does not involve fixing or a coach and team both going completely brain-dead. Like far worse than Riley clock management brain-dead.

  11. Interesting read on the Coaches Hot Seat this morning:

    22. Gary Andersen, Oregon State – Things went from bad to worse for Gary Andersen and his Oregon State football team on Saturday with the Beavers giving up over 50 points for the second straight game….this time to Washington….and now only the Civil War game remains in Eugene against the Oregon Ducks which no doubt will be another 50-plus point game for the OSU defense and also no doubt a final regular season record for the Beavers of….

    2 – 10

    …..in 2015 which only includes wins over Weber State and San Jose State and of course NO wins in Pac-12 play.

    After seeing Gary Andersen on TV a couple of times in recent weeks it looks like to us the MONUMENTAL task he now faces to turn around the Oregon State football program has finally sunk in and how very much TOUGHER of a job OSU is compared to Wisconsin with the Pac-12 North division being incredibly hard place to operate and improve in because the other teams in the division are already playing at a very high-level and improving themselves on a regular basis now.

    Further complicating matters in our opinion is that Gary Andersen is not exactly the best coach….meaning the right personality…to handle the MONUMENTAL re-building job he now faces at Oregon State because there is the very real chance OSU does not win another Pac-12 Conference game in 2016 and the reality is if OSU goes 2 – 10 again next season there is the very REAL chance it is..

    Two-And-Done for Gary Andersen at Oregon State

    ….especially if Andersen doesn’t have a Helluva good attitude about the coming very dark days that are going to test every core of his being and every coaching skill he has ever learned.

    Yes…Mike Riley left a Complete Freaking Disaster behind at Oregon State that was a football program used to winning 5 to 7 games a year in one of the easiest-going programs in college football and Gary Andersen is the exact opposite of Mike Riley in almost every way and that reality is a toxic brew that is going to make it very Damn hard for Gary Andersen to get any REAL traction with his style of coaching barring a massive turnover of the OSU roster which will take several years to happen and we…

    Just Don’t Know if Gary Andersen has several years to get things right at Oregon State

    There’s only one way out for Gary Andersen at Oregon State and that is….

    WINNING

    ….and it will be interesting to see if Andersen realizes that what he is doing now is wrong for the situation he finds himself in and if he alters course to try and save his job or if he plows ahead and it remains “his way or the highway” which will work at a place like Alabama where Bozo the Clown can win 8 games a year but for Damn sure is a risky as Hell strategy at a place like Oregon State.

  12. OT – but the potential bowl fate of Nebraska hangs in the balance this weekend. From S-I:

    “Nebraska coach Mike Riley, the newest face in this rivalry, has had a tough first season in Lincoln. But a win over the Hawkeyes would send the Huskers to a bowl game, take some heat off Riley and give the program momentum heading into 2016. Oh, it would probably ruin Iowa’s national title hopes.

    ”You have to have some inherent pride in being a competitor,” Riley said. ”You’ve got to love that as a coach and as a player, to be able to take advantage of an opportunity to beat a well-respected team.”

    Iowa runs. A lot, and in a pro-set apparently. Could this be the perfect match up for Riley/Banker? They matched up well and had their games against USC’s pro-style offense, and their D got the turnovers they needed to make the difference against a generally better team..

    http://www.omaha.com/huskers/once-derided-hawkeyes-offense-running-like-well-oiled-machine/article_dc9eb1bb-17d9-5821-81d1-31aaa823c221.html

    • What rivalry? There is none. Sadly for Neb.they left that all behind when they switched conferences.
      The bye week combined with the short week do give an edge to the Huskers, as well as being at home. They will be less beat up.
      QB play is overwhelmingly in favor of Iowa. Iowa has no pass rush. All things have rolled the right way for the Hogeyes this year. They win the stupid made up trophy that does not involve corn.

    • I really hope Biley is shut out of a bowl game. Now, I’m reading national articles about how much better Nebraska is than their 5-6 record and the losses are being attributed to bad luck and not the in game management. The Purdue loss is being dismissed because Armstrong was hurt. The awful call against Michigan St. is just being ignored. The Rutgers win was being praised! I am beginning to think the Riley mystic is here for the duration. I guess with all of the egos and assholes in the coaching profession, the media loves nice guys above all else.

  13. Does Oregon score on every offensive posession? I’m thinking yes, at least in the first half. It will be painful to watch. This will be similar to Nicholls state vs Oregon

  14. 63-14 Ducks.
    Looks like the bottle conditioned expensive beer I purchased a few years back to celebrate a Civil War victory will continue to gain complexity in the basement.
    Will this be eight in a row?

      • I have a bottle of Champagne I’ve being dragging to the Wisconsin game since ’04. It’s getting too valuable to drink. Eleven straight in that one. Luck O da Rodent.

  15. People are failing to take into account how bad Oregon’s defense is. They’re about as bad as Cal, giving up 6 yards per play to Cal’s 6.7 and we manages 24 against them. Oregon will score several touchdowns in well under a minute, so we’ll get a lot of possessions. I think we can sustain a few drives and maybe score a couple touchdowns.

    They’ll be up something like 49-10 at the half and pull Adams, so their offense will mostly go away. I doubt they rack up 70+.

    Something like 59-31, final score with a couple of our TDs coming very late.

    • “People are failing to take into account how bad Oregon’s defense is”

      Not exactly, for instance I did credit the Beavs with 6 points possible. That’s only because the yucks D is so bad.

  16. Hey all… Happy Thanksgiving! Just remember as you sit down and reflect on the good in your life and future, it could be worse.

    You could be a fan of Philadelphia’s pro sports teams.

  17. I just got a friend request from Andrew nemac on *Facebook* weird. Like I would want to even be associated with him, denied him. Poor fella probably has no friends

  18. nobody rides for free anymore…………….

    It’s been mentioned a couple of times this season that the Beavers often have not traveled with the full allotment of 70 players allowed on road trips. They plan to bring 57 to Autzen Stadium, Andersen said, including all walk-ons from the state. OSU has obviously been decimated by injuries, particularly on defense, but Andersen noted that the low number is because “some of them don’t deserve to travel.”

    “We are where we are within the injury standpoint,” Andersen said. “But there’s a responsibility that you need to uphold as a student-athlete at Oregon State University if you’re gonna play football. There is no rite to passage. If you do things right, you’re gonna be rewarded. If you do things not the right way, (you won’t).

    “We don’t have big, giant problem, but any type of problem where we deem an issue, we’re gonna handle it. We’ll go fight with 57 kids, and hopefully we can have some kids continually learn lessons, (and some) kids get healthy. We’d like to have 70, but we don’t. You’re not gonna hear us cry about it. We’re gonna go battle our tails off.”

  19. Anybody catch GA’s interview with Parker tonight?

    Talked about Seth going forward, how he battled ups and downs this year and hes an emotional kid, etc, but Seth will be an important piece of the offense going forward. Has proven he’s a dynamic playmaker. Basically insinuated he’ll be a WR who plays qb situationally going forward and there will be another qb next year.

    Of course this isnt all that newsy, but coming from GA makes it a little more concrete. Doesnt sound like SC wants to transfer out, based on his comments

  20. Least Amazing cities in western Oregon, ranked:

    8. Dexter/Lowell/Oakridge
    7. Scio/Millersburg
    6. Glide
    5. Alsea
    4. Lebanon
    3. Cottage Grove
    2. Monroe
    2.b. Harrisburg
    1. Corvallis

  21. Hoops news: Cheick Diallo cleared to play for Kansas. He’s a monster and Eubanks is gonna have his hands full with that one. Our chances of beating KU just dropped significantly. That being said, KU is prone to lapses in the early season and I think this team plays best as the underdog. If we could steal this one it would do wonders for our tourney hopes and team confidence would skyrocket. Please Olaf, oversleep and miss the flight! PLEASE!!

  22. Civil War prediction: Beavs dumpster fire engulfs Autzen in toxic fumes, Ducks players and fans pass out midway through the first quarter. Beavs still have trouble moving the ball but manage a field goal through the smoke as time expires. 3-0 Beavs. FTD

    • I predict the ducks win. Duck fans still act like assholes but get theirs a week from Sunday when their bowl destination is revealed to be Hell Paso

  23. First of all Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

    In case some of you have time to get online while waiting around… I have a few questions:

    1.) How in the hell did we get to the point where OSU is a 34 point underdog in a rivalry game with Oregon? Which other rivals in the country have such disparity between the two? Ours is way too lopsided!

    2.) How come OSU has almost no talent? Sure it’s easy to blame Riley, and I think you’re right, it’s just too easy of an answer. How does a coach who’s been at a program for so long not plan ahead for the future? Andersen basically had no chance to succeed this year! Had Riley returned the outcome would have been the same, if not worse.

    3.) What took the athletic department so long to finally start catching up with the rest of the conference in regards to facilities? Wow, we’re really behind “ALL” of the 11 other teams in facilities? Why the lack of vision and focus to succeed? If a corporation was operated like our athletic department, it would fail, big time!

    4.) Will Oregon set the NCAA record for both total points and total yards against a single opponent in the 119th Civil War? How quickly being thankful will turn into eff my life!!! Man, this feeling of absolutely zero hope really sucks! Oh well, there’s always next year! It gets old repeating the same thing 8 years in a row!

    • 1. 52 Freshmen, 16 players on IR, 57 players on the travel squad, 3rd string QB starter.
      2. Riley’s strategy was to outscore opponents with an offense no other teams had so was harder to prepare for. Riley recruited for that offense specifically. Rested on his laurels with the belief he could teach up lower ranked talent.
      3. No cash flow, department faced with a debt, chose to pay off debt before expanding projects that required fundraising during tough times with a struggling program that saw fading attendance.
      4. Yes

      None of these answers are new.

  24. Happy Thanksgiving AB’s. Sitting on the couch watching Chip Kelly interviewing for the SC or LSU job.

    Only hope for any bright spot in this years Civil Bore is that a dyslexic bus driver takes the team to Portland and they cancel the game. Otherwise it’s going to look like one of those September FCS beat downs the Ducks administer every year. Sad that it’s fallen to that level.

    Remember I, without doing the research, am probably the most successful OSU coach against the Ducks. I won almost half of my games against them. Will never forget being carried off the field by my jubilant players. JB

    PS: The bottom has fallen out of my 91-96 Beaver memorabilia, thanks BDC/Riley, Susy wants the garage back…taking offers.

  25. Happy Thanksgiving Angrybeavs. First snow of the year this morning. Bummer.

    The CW looks like a slaughter. I would think the proper strategy is to try to shorten the game with power running by Nall between the tackles and to throw in every trick play they can squeeze into the game plan. Any other strategy would make me question Coke Zero’s competence.
    BTW, for those watching the Lions’ game, their center, Travis Swanson, is the son of a good friend. Pretty cool.

  26. and I’m thankful for those threads when Jack aims his ire at the trolls and doesn’t engage in friendly fire. I truly believe this site can be a beacon of critical thinking and constructive engagement in the campaign to raise the profile and productivity of our athletic teams, especially football.

  27. You may not be aware of this but Dave Kragthorpe has been brought in as a secret consultant. GA is going to duplicate Kragthorpe’s 1988 game plan and win the civil war 21-10.

  28. Chip is failing in Philly because of the QB situation. Foles, Bradford, Sanchez just isn’t going to get it done. Some of his personnel decisions are mind boggling. Same can happen to GA if he doesn’t resolve the QB thing. I like the Garretson interview above and his stats in the games he started are impressive. Hope they land this 4-star JC for depth or possibly to start. Sounds like the Collins ‘injury’ thing was more like him pouting but then coming to grips with moving to WR. I hope he sticks around as a WR and doesn’t transfer. He could be good there if he can catch, and you have to believe he can since several schools were interested in him at WR. Could be the emergency QB, too (3rd or 4th string).

    • 70-38 quacks. Mmm connects with sc for 2tds and 100+ yards. Sc’s recent OLive quotes looks like he drank the koolaid. Good for him.

    • Kelly to LSU sounds plausible if Philly ownership is impatient.

      Longshot: Could egomaniac Jerry Jones take a chance on Kelly, move on from Romo, and give Kelly personnel authority? Jones has to be tiring of the mediocrity in Dallas.

  29. If the Beavs use more power running formations with Nall, they could make the game closer by keeping the clock moving and giving the defense some rest. Keep 2nd and 3rd downs shorter.

    Doubt they can make it a 4 quarter game though.

  30. Happy Thanksgiving AB’ers.

    Keep in mind there’s a big increase in domestic violence during the holidays so when your ‘uck fan relative starts shooting off their mouth please refrain from throttling, stabbing, shooting, etc. them. Perhaps a kick in the crotch but not much more than that.

    Be safe, be sane and Go Beavs!

    P.S. Now I’m thinking that saying don’t fold, spindle or mutilate your ‘uck relative would have worked just as well.

    I’m not going to guess the final score except to say it will more than likely be a beat down.

    And on this day of thanksgiving, I’m thankful that I’m not a ‘uck fan.

  31. Just saw this on twitter:

    What are Ducks thankful for? @WinTheDay has more wins vs. the Beavs (62) than any team in college football history

    How many negative records do the Beavs hold? Not rhetorical. I’d like to know. It seems like they have every one.

      • Oh and if you are reading that as the Ducks have beaten the Beavs more than any other team has beaten another college team, that is not even close to true.

        Nebraska has beat Kansas 91 times and several teams have lost to one school more than OSU has lost to UO. A&M has lost to Texas 76 times for example.

        • I think they meant Oregon has more victories over OSU than any other team they’ve played. Kind of a misleading stat since this is the 119th civil war and the first was played in 1894. The all time series is 62-46 and 10 ties. Despite recent results, hardly dominant. I’ll take a wild stab and say OSU has more victories against the Ducks than any other team they’ve played. See, I can skew information to make the Beavs look dominant too. Don’t expect ducks to come up with any useful information

  32. PHIL STEELE REPORT (brace yourselves):

    The Civil War is played for the Platypus Trophy. Not surprisingly, UO has won 7 straight. OSU is -203 ypg in P12 action. The L/3 games the Ducks have played their average game grade (located on the team pages at philsteele.com) is 106.0, while the Beavers is just 54.3! UO is off two huge games against Stanford & USC & are playing on a short week, but it won’t matter against OSU despite the rivalry. The Beavers are one of the worst teams playing in a Power 5 conference. They enter having lost 8 straight and both their offense & defense are among the worst in the nation. This game will be over before halftime.
    OREGON 51 OREGON STATE 13

    POSITION BY POSITION EDGES:
    WHEN OREGON STATE HAS THE BALL:
    Oregon State QB/WR’s vs Oregon DB’s: ORE +0.41
    Oregon State RB’s vs Oregon LB’s: ORE +1.37
    Oregon State OL vs Oregon DL: ORE +0.96
    WHEN OREGON HAS THE BALL:
    Oregon State DL vs Oregon OL: ORE +1.52
    Oregon State LB’s vs Oregon RB’s: ORE +3.83
    Oregon State DB’s vs Oregon QB/WR’s: ORE +2.76
    MISCELLANEOUS:
    Special Teams: ORE +1.45
    Kicking: ORE +0.61
    Coaching: ORE +0.80
    ORST TOTAL POINTS: 0.00
    ORE TOTAL POINTS: 13.71
    POSITIONAL EDGE AWARDED TO: Oregon by 13.71 Points.

    PROJECTED BOX SCORE (Oregon State/Oregon):
    Projected Rushing: 157/377
    Projected Passing: 175/283
    Projected Yardage Total: 332/660
    Projected Final Score: 18/53
    Experience Rankings: 120/87
    Team Schedule Strength: 13/15

    COMPUTER:
    Las Vegas Line: Oregon by 34.5
    Las Vegas Total: 68.5 Points
    +/- Ratings: Oregon by 37.0
    Game Grade: Oregon by 21.0
    Computer Yards: Oregon 660-332
    Computer Points: Oregon 53-18

      • I buy Phil’s magazine annually because I like to thumb through it in the summer at my kid’s various sports practices to make the time pass, but I chuckle because Phil never seems to be wrong even when he is wrong. Also, he regurgitates a lot old informaton to fill up the pages year after year.

        • I think so too. He doesn’t seem to show much arm power. Looks to me he’s just there to add depth at the position.

          After watching Darrel Garretson’s highlights he will be the starter the next two years unless they get a highly rated recruit:
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7p_OhpEuDfc (HS Highlights)
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wd5_GjXlTx8 (Utah St Highlights)

          DG looks the part, even if it was against Mountain West teams. He has a better arm and has proven success under this offense. I don’t think we need an all-world QB. Just need to be able to get it to our playmakers and keep teams honest with a couple QB runs on the read.

          • Almost all the teams in the Mountain West could beat the Beavers, so I wouldn’t knock the conference. The gap between conferences is very small now. We also see a lot of NFL talent coming out of smaller conferences. I think the Chiefs top two running backs both came from very small non-power 5 programs. Those types of guys are all over the NFL.

            Garretson looks good to me. The two knocks are sometimes the ball seems to stick to his hand and he throws it straight down into the ground (saw this several times in the scrimmage footage) and also his height isn’t ideal, but those can be worked around.

          • No just West is. Knile Davis is from Arkansas and Spencer Ware is an LSU guy. Moran also looks way too small. If he plays next year he won’t last more than 10 carries before he goes down

          • Okay, but the point is there are guys all over the NFL from small schools.
            This happens for various reasons I don’t have time to get into, but the point is Garretson won’t be bad just because he was playing at Utah State. People are holding that against him. I get it in some cases when the guy has terrible offers and looks terrible on film, but Garretson looks pretty good.

        • That’s what I see, too.

          Arm power isn’t everything, mexibeav. But the bigger problems here are he’s not really making a lot of throws downfield. He’s making short passes to his playmakers and letting them do the work and/or completely blown coverage by the Ds. I guess that might fit the Beaver’s new system, so in that regard he’s a possibly a match, but I think we need to view his stats with scrutiny.

          His throwing motion is almost all wrist with some short-arming in there. It’s not good. When I saw him on TV he was high with almost every ball, just overthrowing guys left and right. I couldn’t watch more than 3 possessions because it was so bad. I hope they land that Scout 4-star (not rated anywhere else so who knows), but at least it’s a body

    • “This sucks!” – high school students learning the colleges they really wanted to attend rejected them, and they’re stuck with their fallback in Eugene

      – also any chair that sees Chip Kelly approaching

  33. Sitting at Panera in Corvallis. Watching cars and counting UO cars vs. OSU cars. Saw ten duck flag/sticker/tacky schlock cars go by, and zero beaver cars. And this is right smack in Downtown Corvallis!

    Rivalry is dead.

    • Inclined to agree. Whenever a game between two P5 teams is universally predicted to be a 40+ point blowout, it ends up being a lot closer. At least in my memory.

  34. OT… Stanford with a 21-1 run in crunch time to beat Arky. Point #19 comes on a coast to coast press break to score with 2.6 seconds left… on a goaltending call.

  35. My prediction is that this game will be a lot more competitive than everyone seems to think. There is a parity even between the best and worst college teams, and these two teams are neither. And I really hope we do see a competitive fire that breeds an optimistic outlook for the next 9 months. Go Beavs!

  36. Angry mentioned the total yardage record. The Houston Cougars “run and shoot” led by Andre Ware went bat shit crazy against SMU in 1989 rolling up 1021 yards of offense in a 95-21 win.

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