60-80mph gusts forecast for Saturday.
a. Will this game get cancelled?
b. If not, which team does the wind benefit?
I think it clearly benefits Utah since they stop the run well and the Beavs won’t be able to throw in this weather, but I’d like to think otherwise and so I’ll entertain any good arguments that it favors the Beavs.
If we can get to the edge and stretch their defense with Lucas and Pierce, and nall can have 80ish yards up the middle we might have a chance to win. Keep them honest with run game and try to quick hit the edges and spring big plays. Our WR block well so we could see some big outside runs. Should be interesting
I could see this game being delayed significantly. Its early enough that i doubt the cancel it. The evening forecast is a little tamer, as of right now.
If neither team is able to throw, due to wind, then it all comes down to OL vs DL. Would have to think Utah’s line depth wins that battle in the 2nd half as our group wears down.
Curious if we’ll see the world’s first put to leave a stadium completely?
Somebody in Philomath might end up with a football in their backyard. Keep an eye out for a free souvenir, Whiskey.
Also, holy shit will traffic on I-5 be terrible, with all of that water and flying debris. Be safe out there Beavers
High winds most seriously hinder the long passing game. The long passing game is the weakest/worst part of the OSU offense. Abandoning the long passing game this Saturday should not represent a big loss for OSU. In fact, throwing fewer incomplete long passes, and using those plays instead for short passes or runs, may be a very good thing for the OSU offense. OSU should end up with fewer lost plays, and also fewer sacks.
High winds tend to make the running game more important. Nall suited up today for practice, and seems likely to play on Saturday. OSU also has Pierce, Lucas, Bolden (fly sweeps), and Tim Cook. Meanwhile, Utah has suffered many injuries at RB, and has little RB depth or quality at the moment.
Also, get ready for lots of 4th down tries. Punting and field goals will be more of a crap-shoot than going for it.
True — especially if/when going against the wind. The wind is also likely to play a major role in the battle for field position and in generating turnovers. Particularly scary thought — Victor Bolden trying to catch punts in a windstorm.
Another consideration re “who benefits”: OSU defense has been burned badly by long passes where receivers have gotten behind or past the Beaver safeties. Much harder to complete such passes when the wind is blowing hard — even where a receiver is several yards behind the nearest defender.
Coaches may not even put a returner back there if it’s really bad.
Forecast say it could be even worse if the sat storm takes the southern course into Oregon.
Did you watch the last game?
Heard some radio douches talking about potential duck head coach replacements today. Kyle Whittingham was brought up. Civil War could be really interesting
Have to keep running plenty to have frequent manageable 3rd downs. Pass too much and you will see much more 3rd & longs and the opposing defense knowing what is coming.
Hernandez and Collins slants thrown in with other times when we run on 1st & 2nd down to set up 3rd and 3 with most options is the Beavers best shot. Nall needs around 100 yards, Pierce 60, Lucas 40 and Collins, Bolden & Hernandez to be role players adding to the execution with timely 6 to 14 yard routes and good blocking.
It also keeps morale in a better position when the frequency of positive plays well executed to keep moving the chains is high. Also gives defense a rest which is huge and allows Beavs be on their way to the 40+ points it takes to win most Pac-12 games.
Nall said it best last week. Execution was the biggest difference vs Cal.
A cyclone can’t be snared. It may be surrounded, but somewhere it breaks through to keep on going. When the cyclone starts in Corvallis, where the candle lights still gleam through the coastal firs, those in the way must take to storm cellars at top speed. Saturday the cyclone will strike, with a set of backfield stars that will rip and crash through a strong Utah defense with more speed and power than the warring Utes can meet.
I’ve always hated that prose. But it almost makes sense in this context. It would have made sense last week at NC State if that game wasn’t so pathetic. I would like it more if it was a recap like the original.
Wind? Should have cancelled that abomination of a 2008 Sun Bowl and 2009 Vegas Bowl.
Those games only had winds. This will be heavy rain and wind. DIfferent conditions.
I loved that Sun Bowl.
See no way it’s cancelled
Cancelled? When has a game been cancelled for wind?
PHIL STEELE REPORT:
Utah (Offense: 61 / Defense: 13 / Special Teams: 9) – Game Grade Average 88.9 (#37)
Projected Final Record: 7-5
Colorado (Offense: 106 / Defense: 85 / Special Teams: 25) – Game Grade Average 74.5 (#93)
Projected Final Record: 2-10
Oregon State will feel they can win this game after just beating California at home, the same team that dealt Utah its only loss of the year 2 weeks ago. QB Garretson, who was banged up in the Beavers loss to Colorado, had 105 rushing yards & Ryan Nall added 221. Oregon State piled up their best offensive showing under HC Andersen w/559 total yards. Despite those facts, I still believe Utah has the edge in all three phases, including a large edge on defense with my #13 rated unit (Oregon State #85). 3 weeks ago Oregon State was home & trailed Boise State 31-7 at halftime getting outgained a video game like 435-67. Oregon State benefited from California QB Webb injuring his throwing hand on the 2nd series as he threw for just 124 yds on 45 attempts. Utah is a clear contender in the Pac-12 South, while Oregon State is in just the 2nd year of Andersen’s rebuild, but the advanced weather forecast is calling for 30-40 mph winds, which will prevent this from being a best bet.
UTAH 28 OREGON STATE 13
POSITION BY POSITION EDGES:
WHEN UTAH HAS THE BALL:
Utah QB/WR’s vs Oregon State DB’s: ORST +0.46
Utah RB’s vs Oregon State LB’s: UTAH +0.29
Utah OL vs Oregon State DL: UTAH +1.78
WHEN OREGON STATE HAS THE BALL:
Utah DL vs Oregon State OL: UTAH +1.47
Utah LB’s vs Oregon State RB’s: UTAH +0.63
Utah DB’s vs Oregon State QB/WR’s: UTAH +2.01
MISCELLANEOUS:
Special Teams: UTAH +1.00
Kicking: UTAH +0.05
Coaching: UTAH +1.40
Utah Total: 8.62
Oregon State Total: 0.46
Positional Edge Awarded to Utah By 8.15 Points.
PROJECTED BOX SCORE (Utah – Oregon State):
Rushing Yards: 210-137
Passing Yards: 176-133
Yardage Total: 386-270
Projected Final Score: 27-15
Experience Rankings: 91-75
Team Schedule Strength: 44-43
Las Vegas Line: Utah by 9.5
Las Vegas Total: 43.5 Points
+/- Ratings: Utah by 9.5
Game Grade: Utah by 10.9
Computer Yards: Utah 386-270
Computer Points: Utah 27-15
a. Will this game get cancelled? Seriously??? Only way there is a delay or postponement is because of lightning. This is football not baseball. There are no rain delays
b. If not, which team does the wind benefit? Both teams have to deal with the same elements
a. No way unless trees are coming down left and right in the parking lots.
b. Hard to say. Utah controls the ball very well. So if they are effective in their running game, they may hold the ball for 40 minutes. Beavs aren’t built to score in short bursts.
We may see what football was like before the forward pass. Beavs best shot is obviously to limit Utah’s offensive possessions. Hold the ball as long as they can and win the field position game.
I think the punters will decide this game. Very high chance for a screwup.
On to the NLCS!!! Go Blue!!!!!
28 years!
A team is going to win it this year that hasn’t in a long time
Since they’ve been/won to the WS:
Cleveland: 1997/1948
Toronto: 1993/1993
LA: 1988/1988
Cubs: 1945/1908
What excuse will the Cubbies come up with this year?
Since they’ve been/won to the WS:
Cleveland: 1997/1948
Toronto: 1993/1993
LA: 1988/1988
Cubs: 1945/1908
Yes I know. I follow beisbol. Cubbies will be tough. They’ve been the best team throughout the entire season. Great starting pitching, great hitting, great defense, great bullpen. There’s just something different about this Dodger team that previous years have been lacking. It’s not quite the David vs Goliath matchup of the 1988 NLCS vs the Mets but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Dodgers pull this one off. It’s kind of like the 2006 Beavs team that won the CWS. Heart, grit, determination, a never say die approach and attitude. I was skeptical of the Dave Roberts hire but he’s pulled all the right strings so far. Especially with the record number of players that went on the DL this year
Almost blew it when a certain RF moseyed in on a drive before quickly correcting himself.
I think the game goes as scheduled. NOAA is currently forecasting gusts up to 44mph 2-4pm.
I’m in the ball-security camp. Can’t see how the Beavs avoid the run on Saturday, but by the stats, Utah is not what they were against the run last year. My guess is if Nall plays more than half the game we win by 5.
Let’s not get carried away yet. Utah is a real defensive line not like the joke Cal presented to us last week. There was a reason everyone was rushing for over 250 yards against them.
I’m going to say the exact opposite takes place this week: it’s on the defense to hold serve against their offense and hope we can put a few drives together whereas last week it was up to the offense to keep the ball away from Cal.
“…it’s on the defense to hold serve against their offense and hope we can put a few drives together ”
I think strong, gusty winds significantly help the OSU defense, by taking away Utah’s long passing game. This lets OSU safeties move up, to help stifle the Utah running attack and short passing game. If Saturday becomes all about running, Utah’s lack of depth at running back becomes more of a factor. Utah also is thin at center. http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865664763/Utah-football-notes-Injuries-have-taken-a-toll-at-center.html?pg=all Wet and windy conditions could make snapping problematic for the Utes.
Bad weather on Saturday promises to help the Beaver defense in multiple ways. Go Beavs.
sure, stats are only stats and this looks to be a slog on the LoS. Here are the numbers I’m basing my point on: vs. FBS teams Utah’s defense: 58th nationally at 4.15ypc in 2016 vs. 6th at 3.28ypc 2015 season. They padded their season stats against S. Utah (3.63ypc), SJSU (1.75ypc) and an Arizona (3.43 ypc) backfield that had zero rushes from nick wilson or jj taylor. I’m not saying we have USC’s Oline or backfield (6.45 ypc), but certain backs have made good ypc vs. Utah this year and not necessarily just on the edges.
I agree that they are stout but not some impenetrable wall. They need to at least try to run up the gut instead of conceding, because you never know how they’ll do until you let them try. Beside the fact that you’re basically telling your O line that they’re a bunch of sissies who couldn’t possibly stand up to Utah so we’re not even going to try.
Like you, I don’t get the concept of completely giving up one aspect of your game without even trying.
Bring your big boy pants, fellas. And if/when they prove you can’t run up the middle, you try some other aspects and keep probing, at least keep the play calling somewhat unpredictable.
*rush defense
It will come down to conditioning and depth. Utah is not a fast starting team. And our D is good into the late 3rd (at sea level) as of last weekend. Utah’s O is big and experienced except at the two key positions their media keeps talking about. They are going to be running off tackle as much as their RB depth will allow.
Their D is another issue. Their front four and secondary are good to excellent. Their LBs don’t exactly eat space. So the TEs, RBs and maybe Villamin or Hernandez in a possession role should be able to find extra yards in those spaces.
We probably have to gain a two score lead and hold on like last week for any chance. We know how to overcome a comeback. We have yet to make a complete one ourselves.
Could be another good time to go to the screen game and hope for good YAC vs their LBs.
Their line is smart enough to sniff those out. Getting it to receivers on bubble screens and slants, TEs on flares or drags, or to RBs on circle and wheel routes would be more productive. Throw those in with misdirection in the run game, and we have a chance to break into some open field. I don’t think any big scores will come of it because their safeties close down fast, but once in a while they close in too big a hurry.
I was thinking the same thing re:depth.
It seems to me like three things will decide the outcome…
Defensive depth for beavs
Turnovers
Punt game/field position
I think a large element of this game will be luck. If gusts really approach 80 mph, no one will be able to break a long run into that wind. Wind at your back will be key even for rushing downs in that kind of force.
Also advantage us because our punter is very good. Don’t be surprised if someone throws a long pass on 4th and long for an intentional pick that effectively becomes a punt. Whichever team had the higher iq player who realizes the best option is to bat that kind of ball down will have a large advantage.
When are the weather services ever right about extreme weather in Oregon. Be it wind or snow it almost never materializes how anticipated. When it’s bad it’s normally out if the blue. Better to be prepared.
I’m sure it will be wet and windy but doubt we actually have 50 + mph winds game day.
At this point our passing game can’t really get any worse so whatever.
Agree Utahs fan base is annoying. Be nice to shut them up. Constantly still riding Togiai on Twitter for not committing to them. Get over it tools.
Go BEAVS! Get tricky with Seth the Great and take to these Utes!
Last night was bad enough to warrant the game conditions we’re talking about. And that just brushed by us. That storm has curled up and is hitting BC and northern Washington today. And it looks like it’s bad enough to match the storm we had in March. It’s sending supercells onshore up and down the coast.
Tomorrow’s storm will be held up by that one, so it will get a lot closer in the rosiest of projected paths for us. But it has also moved high wind warnings south and east enough to include the Bay Area and the Sierra Nevadas.
I’ve not had a good feeling about this thing since Monday. I’ve been putting everything away over the week. Today I’m taking down a couple limbs that were stressed just last night. And I’m pretty sure about a dozen lone firs will be blocking familiar roads in the morning.
And it looks like the worst of it (for us) will be tomorrow morning.
pretty nasty out there this morning. Lotsa wind and heavy rain. Even thunder and lightning around 6am in Corvallis. Be safe out there folks
Porebeski has a couple different punts he can use if needed (high winds) and option to run-should be ok with him.
Kicking against wind will be difficult -KO, FG, PAT, punting and fielding all kicks/punts
I say it comes down to less makes on Special Teams wins in a low scoring game.
Where’s Read when you need him? ……. J/K
* mistakes
Porebski’s run option should be severely limited given who had been Utah’s P for the two previous years. But you never know. I’ll take 30 yard squibs in those conditions.
And it’s not like I haven’t seen a backward punt before.
The Beaver defense has been atrocious against the run. Boise State, Colorado, and Cal ran all over us…. anybody know our rush defense ranking? Gonna be a long day tomorrow, no matter what our offense does, it will be a battle of Beav defensive line and Ute offensive line. Both teams will be keying in on the run, Utah has better depth, even with injuries, so they win that battle.
Weather adjustment- 21-7 Utes.
Hoping homefield and special teams give us a boost.
Everyone keeps talking about going with or against the wind. The wind is out of the SSW meaning it will hit the old side grand stand head on. Might not be that windy around midfield and will be more of a swirling wind as it wraps around.
Perfect weather for a game! Take out that dangerous and unpredictable pass. Run…Run… Run.. over in two hours. 7 to 0 thriller! JB
Let’s be realistic. There will be wind and probably rain during the game tomorrow. But the gusting may below 50 mph. I just don’t see it getting higher than that. Wind will be out of the S to SSW, which is mostly sideline-to-sideline. The SE endzone will probably have more exposure to wind. Who knows on the rain. It will probably be more showers (some heavy). That’s how it’s been since last night.
The biggest potential impact could be power outage. Not sure what Reser is equipped with for generators.
FG kicking could be affected, punting should be OK, passing will be difficult, lots of running the ball. Maybe take a play out of the NC State-Notre Dame game plan from last weekend.
Last night was just a kiss.
Tomorrow from about 11am to 1pm will be the worst of it for everyone in the inland valleys. The coast is going to get hammered. And if it doesn’t move north like last night’s little dust-up, we could have winds from all directions before the game ends.
Last week Kickoffs going to scoreboard were mostly touchbacks
KO to Terrace were short and no touchbacks.
The flag on top of old side was blowing sideways to field but clearly advantage with wind to scoreboard side.
So throwing and kicking should be game planned for that IMO.
Here’s hoping everyone remains safe and nothing bad befalls you,,, or falls on you.
They should ban both teams from running the ball. Only passes and kicks. Turn this into a complete shitshow!
Rainy days in So Cal as a kid where rare and welcomed… automatic mud bowl baby. We rarely got hurt because of all the mud. Rain is the best football weather to play in… not so much if you are a spectator. Playing on turf these guys should have little rubber pieces in every crook and cranny. Bring on the white uniforms!
Damn, manzanita got hit with a tornado?
https://youtu.be/IuFUjVb_MFY
Yup started as a water spout before hitting land. Someone had a pic on Fox12 of it over the ocean.
Maybe it sucked up that shark that bite that dude at Ecola state park. We are ground zero for the Sharknado…….. God help us.
Wind, rain, flying debris sounds like the makings of a good football game. Any bets on a 0-0 tie after regulation? Ala toilet bowl. Down in the Roseburg area it’s supposed to be pretty bad. They are recommending all hunters stay out of the woods, due to the falling trees. I am going to heed this advice and stay home. Venison isn’t worth dying over.
Are carrots?
Its pretty funny, gotten several e-mails wondering if our high school game in Redmond Oregon is cancelled due to wind. Its gusting here pretty good despite the mountains protecting us.
Last night Dallas vs Corvallis…2-0 final.
Their field is not great even without rain but…
Come to think of it, I should probably revise my pick and score for the Beav game…
Hey Jack, can you revise my score to Beavs 14-7
Weather Channel just mentioned our game. Then they showed an overhead of the stadium.
Yes, I know… tartan!
They said sustained winds 25-30 mph, gusts up to 60, 55-57 degrees and lots of rain between bands of heavier rain.
*winds will be SSW
Decent seats available on stub hub for $6…..
Haha, I had to go look, there are a lot of seats available for super cheap. Given the product and the weather who can blame them. I think for 6 bucks I may just buy a pair and walk over to watch the shit show.
The weather would make me WANT to go…
If I were up there I wouldn’t miss this game for anything.
It would be memorable. I was passing by on I-5 today and wishing I had time to stop, stay the night, and catch the game tomorrow. There’s probably going to be a wide variety of seating available…
Prices went up as the day went on…busy at work was unable to get my order in until late afternoon, by then similar tix were going for 10.99…Scalper rates but I figured it was still worth standing in a monsoon.
I’ll wave to y’all…Look for the dude in section 12, row 30
Here’s what I have so far. Change ’em if you got ’em… and want to change ’em.
Week 7 picks:
1. Miss. St. @ BYU
2. Minnesota @ Maryland
3. Stanford @ Notre Dame
4. Fork U @ Colorado
5. Ohio St. @ Wiscy
6. Utah @ OSU (score)
dwill03: MSU, Minn, SU, CU, tOSU, OSU 31-28
Theboneyard: BYU, Minn, SU, CU, tOSU, Utah 31-28
Mud&Sticks: BYU, Mary, ND, CU, tOSU, Utah 33-17
BlackBandits: BYU, Mary, SU, CU, tOSU, OSU 37-21
cj: BYU, Minn, ND, ASU, tOSU, OSU 42-38
whiskey: MSU, Mary, SU, CU, tOSU, OSU 21-20
Jack: BYU, Minn, ND, CU, Wiscy, Utah 19-15
oneoldbeav: BYU, Mary, SU, CU, tOSU, OSU 28-24
Numbers: BYU, Minn, SU, ASU, tOSU, OSU 34-31
scotty: BYU, Mary, ND, CU, tOSU, Utah 34-17
orangejulius: BYU, Minn, SU, CU, tOSU, OSU 14-7
Outcast: BYU, Minn, SU, CU, Wiscy, Utah 34-24
Wrigg3: BYU, Minn, SU, CU, tOSU, Utah 28-21
mckalk: BYU, Mary, ND, CU, tOSU, Utah 31-17
Nicebeaver: MSU, Minn, ND, CU, tOSU, Utah 21-17
beavergopher: BYU, Mary, ND, CU, tOSU, Utah 24-20
beaverkman: BYU, Mary, ND, CU, Wiscy, Utah 27-18
RanYakumo: MSU, Minn, SU, CU, tOSU, OSU, 20-17
I’ll change my score to 24-14 beavs.
BYU
Minn
Stanford
Colorado
Ohio St.
OSU 12-10.
I’ll change my score to 21-17 Beavs.
Thanks Jack. Change my score to Utah 24 Beavs 12
Now it says 28mph wind tomorrow. Bummer. I wanted to see something crazy.
Some sites say thunder, too, which means lightning. I hope they can get the game in.
It’s like watching the forecast as a kid, hoping for school snow closures. Rarely looks as promising as first indications.
That was a horrible feeling. Going to bed being told you’re getting 6 inches of snow, waking up to flurries. I bet that’s how the SockPuppet’s wife feels every night.
That 28 mph is a sustained wind.
I know Manzanita was serious business yesterday, but in general Oregon TV weather forecasters are the most hyperbolic, bombastic numbnuts out there. I’ve lived in other places and have actually been pissed because inclement weather was no big deal and as a former Oregonian I was caught off guard from being used to “the world is ending” type forecasts.
My god given talent to “break wind” should keep the gusts to a minimum at Reser tomorrow.
I remember the storm of ’62…plenty windy that day! I got my driving permit that day. Then 2 years later the big Christmas flood, the Willamette was a mile wide in some places…I filled sandbags until we ran out of sand.
Plenty of room available at “The Terrace” tomorrow, enjoy some Pinot Noir, but get it in a sippy cup…
You’ll definitely want a lid so it doesn’t get watered down.
Wait……you don’t put ice in your wine to keep it cool? You’re totally missing out.
A drippy cup?
OT: from the ESPN bottom ten list.
8. Fres-no State (1-5)
The saying in Bulldog Country used to be that they would play “anybody, anytime, anywhere.” That’s still true. This year they just probably aren’t going to beat them once they get to whomever whenever wherever.
Derek Carr, bitches.
#GoRaiders
Vegas Raiders? Does not sound right.
http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=17798948
I’ll take a stab. Ummm, how about no
I agree. I think they lose today at Indiana. Fools gold. The only real difference this year is the QB, Armstrong, not chucking up INT’s. MR forced to use him as a dual theat, because he is a great athelete. As I told my bro, wait till next year when he has his hand picked statue playing QB. You will get the standard first year pick fest with MR’s QB’s without the running threat. He “runs his unit, how he runs his unit.”
“As I told my bro, wait till next year when he has his hand picked statue playing QB. You will get the standard first year pick fest with MR’s QB’s without the running threat.”
You have not yet taught him the “Learning Riley’s complex playbook” excuse?
Gameday, for the most part, picked against Mike’s Juicy Fruit, er, Big Red.
National Weather Service shows a forecast of (downgraded) sustained winds in the mid-20s during game time . Maybe not so much of a “Gale Bowl” after all?
Fail Gale Bowl
GaleGate ?
#FuckAddingGateToEveryGodDamnedThing
YES!
I know, I don’t want to minimize a potentially deadly weather event, but they cancelled my son’s football game and there is no wind to speak of right now. I thought football was meant to be played in the wet? It was a turf field also.
Today is Riley’s first semi challenging game. A so-so Indiana at home.
That feels like a loss to me.
That would be nice, it would stop all of the “Riley the Savior” talk from delusional Husker fans. They’ve played nobody so far this year and it will continue every year for the forseeable future as the Big 10 West is a shit-fest.
There was talk about them moving back to the big12 recently. To much work involved with winning the big10 I guess.
I kind of like them in the Big 10 because Riley will never get past Ohio St. and Michigan. The Oregonian would be insufferable for decades if Riley ever led the Huskers to the playoffs.
I don’t see them losing this, despite his past narrative.
Really? Seems like a classic Riley loss.
Game is in Bloomington
Right, as I said Indiana at home. Isn’t that their home field?
Indiana at home could be taken either way. I took it you meant in Lincoln
Anyone have a feed for our game?
http://www.streamendous.com/channel83.php
Wind is kicking up pretty nicely at this point, just pulled some marketing materials that were outside…if it stays like this I think you can absolutely forget passing.
Gina tweets that Nall is suited up and going through warmup. Not really surprised, still seriously doubt he is 100%.
Maybe they’ll use Nall in some read options hoping the defense will collapse inside. Perfect opportunity for Garretson to keep it.
Anyone else finding the radio feed from KKNX (Eugene) as being f*cked up?
Game thread up. Jumped the gun, figured angry may be distracted by the Nebraska game. lol