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Washington State Predictions

374

Let’s hear whatcha got.

I’m going 35-21 Cougs. Only hope is the team regroups, focuses, comes out angry for Conference play, and that Seth gives them a boost, but that all seems like a long shot. That’s why they play the game, though. Washington State might be looking past us. The quotes coming out this week haven’t been encouraging. Seemed like more finger pointing, mixed messages, and chemistry problems so I have to go Cougs.

374 COMMENTS

  1. 49-14 Cougs even if Falk is out with a concussion and Helinski plays the whole game.

    Beavs O-line unable to stop Hercules pass rush, and he destroys Luton in first half, everything snow-balls after bad turnovers and again no reason to run the ball, Luton will chuck it for 3 quarters and the wheels fall off. Wazzu rbs have huge day on dump off routes on the sideline and Beavs never adjust to it. Beavs get no sacks again.

    I have no expectation beyond utter failure at this point. Prove me wrong Gary Andersen!

  2. We lost our starting corners, our DLine hasn’t gotten a single sack all year, Falk averages 5,500 yards per game against us (might need to double check that number), their backup QB played pretty well last week in Falk’s absence, we haven’t won a turnover battle yet this year, our coaches don’t seem to think we pass to frequently and also want to play up tempo, game is at WSU…..

    I’m going with 59-13 Cougs.

  3. 48-20 Cougs. Yet again McGivInt throws more than he runs. Something like 54-46 pass/run and close to 14% below the 60/40 run pass target set by GA.

    Fans will continue to be utterly perplexed why OSU chooses to do the same thing over and over again and expect a different result other than a lopsided loss.

    GA’s “I know the process works” doesn’t even apply because they aren’t following the process if it calls for 60/40 run pass and they run for much less than that every single game this year. Just more meaningless coach speak not being backed up by action by the staff.

    If we do over 55% run which is quite unlikely we will lose much more respectively and actually have a valid data point for comparison. Something like 44-28 and a 16 point loss instead of a 28 point loss if McGiven’s pass happy ways continue.

    I expect more of the same from McGivInt which will mean atleast a couple interceptions thrown by Luton. Final time of possession will be 35:40 WSU to 24:20 OSU.

    Best chance is plenty of Nall, Johnson and Pierce and a few screens to Tyner.

    Hope having Seth sparks more fight into the Beavs but am 95% certain this will be a loss of atleast 14 points regardless.

  4. The lack of reps given to Nall is tremendously concerning. It was clear a message was being sent to Nall when Andersen rolled Pierce out there early and often. Part of me wonders if Nall ends up transferring.

    70-31 Cougs

          • I was replying to him saying “Gross. We have a sycophant on our hands. No wonder he got the job.”

            I said, “Sometimes you’re pretty retarded.”

            He’s also deleted my comments at times when I call him immature (and not in quite so rude a way as I did above).

            Considering he casually insults people he disagrees with I figured he would be okay with a similar tone in response. Guess not!

          • It is. And I don’t agree with censorship in almost all cases.

            I have seen it in process. I’ve been a victim, if that’s what we are, of it. Most of the time it’s because I’m the first to comment on something, and I get the feeling it’s a 180 from where the original post was intended. Amended posts follow, or none at all on some subjects.

            If you used gay as a pejorative, then you can go fuck yourself.

            Assuming you’re male, stop being gay.

          • “I’m pretty retarded. And gay.”

            heh heh…

            Filters?

            We don’t need no stinkin’ filters here.

            Coming from the biggest ass/dick/fuckface here, don’t waste your time censoring anything. We got your back… and front… and hypothetical back and front… hypothetically.

          • I didn’t say gay in my posts.

            Angry called me gay in the edit because in a previous game thread I called him out for his high school attitude calling people “gay for Luton.”

          • I didn’t say you wrote gay.

            Sheesh!

            I only said that if you used it as a pejorative, you can go fuck yourself.

            It follows that, if you are male, you should stop being gay… if that were the case.

            No biggie. Southern heritage and all.

          • This is one thing I don’t understand about the focus group derived catch phrases that groups like Focus on the Family create in order to cloud our lexicon with stupidity. Just because it’s popular doesn’t mean it makes sense. Look at what happened when the Tea Party was being formed by the Kock brothers. Their focus group told them the people they were busing to town halls and city council meetings should call themselves teabaggers. They literally called themselves teabaggers, every single one of them.

            They didn’t figure comics were watching TV and reading the news… apparently.

            So dumb.

            They sure changed their message in short order… all at once… with the same canned verbiage… in a way that only screams “grass roots.”

            Snowflakes are white and infinitely original. Whites who think they’re infinitely original made it up and sent it out to their minions, who are like them. Do they ever stop and think about this shit?

  5. Apparently there’s a story from Machado about players giving up and not even trying, saying the hard work is pointless since it isn’t rewarded. Or something like that, allegedly, maybe. A “cheesy weasel” (lol) posted it on that other forum Jack loves

    • You have no clue what other forums I love. You probably don’t even know the subject matter. And I’ve announced the subject matter of other forums I love on this forum.

      That’s how stupid I think you are.

    • If you repeat it enough, maybe someone will start believing it.

      Weasels are not rodents. Adding dairy to a weasel doesn’t make it a his or her rodent.

    • If that’s true and GA has basically lost the locker room, how in the world does he get out of this hole he’s dug himself?
      On the heels of a contract extension, no less.
      You can only contunue to fight and battle like heck with these young men for so long before you need the young men to also fight like heck.

      • It can go a couple ways. They can give up, or they can play.

        I know it sounds simple. It’s not. I think GA has his hands full with personnel issues. I applaud that kind of management because that’s who he’s there to serve. That being said, allowing your middle management to deviate from your plan, the plan you tell your labor they need to follow, is poor form.

        For once, what GA tells his players is not true.

        He should be as pissed as they are. But he should also have been proactive.

        • That’s the schism, btw… one between players and a system not like what they signed up for.

          It would be one thing to lose a hard fought game. But when you lose an embarrassing game where you weren’t allowed to even fight, you start to question shit. It’s not like they don’t give effort. It’s that their effort has been misplaced.

  6. McGiven sees Leach’s offense and falls in love, deciding mid-game to attempt “50 or 60” passes. Luton goes 16 of 57, 1 TD, 4 INT. Nall goes for 76 yards, 1 TD on one carry. Pierce adds another 50 yards on two carries. Coaches rave post game about their season high number of completions, saying “We thought the run game could have been executed better. We only ran three run plays, where we like to have a 50-50 run-pass mix, so the running game’s not where we’d like, not good enough. But that’s on me.”

    WSU 56 OSU 10

  7. I think almost all of us agree the Beavs will get beat pretty soundly. So the real question is how long we can keep it competitive. I’m guessing a quarter and a half before the wheels start falling off.

    • You have to look at the patterns for the two teams. We don’t give up a two score lead until the second half. Wazzu likes to suck in the first half. Whatever scenario plays out, it’s going to be halftime adjustments that make the difference.

      They don’t play the run. Their D is going to be soft against the run. We didn’t play well against the run because apparently we were never playing the run in practice. Now that we might have a reversion to heart, we can run over them early and often. I’m assuming their coaches are watching the same tape we see. They’re not going to expect the valid run O we have. Our OC doesn’t trust it. Why should they?

    • I would dare say the Gopher’s D is better. We beat them in the Holiday Bowl last year with the worst QB in CFB. GA should watch the tape. They made WSU’s offense anemic. It was a great game plan executed to perfection. One or two DL’s and a shitload of fast LBs. Luke F was frazzled.

      • That’s right, they really made Falk look pedestrian as I recall. Probably one of his worst games ever?

        The approach you describe – one or two DL and a shitload of LBs – should play right into OSU’s “strengths” because we know they are concerned about DL depth and playing too many at once.

        Couldn’t we please just see that with lots of Nall/Pierce/Johnson?!? Just try it once before getting into the grinder that is the middle third of the season schedule.

        As someone pointed out on a previous thread, GA’s coordinators seem to be outsmarting themselves by attempting to play to the other teams weakness more than to OSU strengths.

      • Agreed. They had some help from the refs because Celestin should have been ejected. But their backers were more solid than Wazzu’s will ever be.

  8. The Sprague/Machado (“Dam”) podcast this week is called “Angry Beaver.” I haven’t listened to it yet. Copyright infringement?

    Any logical way I look at this game shows a debacle. 45-14 Cougs as they take their foot off the gas in the 4th.

  9. 52-17 Cougs.

    If we can rattle Luke, if he plays, it could be closer. I just don’t see it with our banged up d-line and secondary against a Leach offense.

    Palouse can get surprisingly loud. Saw it firsthand in 2015 when Luke lit us up for a school record 6TD’s.

    Their D might not be the greatest but if Colorado State can make our offense rely on throwing the ball with Luton then I’m sure Wazzu can too.

    It will come down to our offensive line play. If our run game gets going I honestly hope for the love of god that Luton can complete short/intermediate throws to keep the defense honest.

    Leach has had a recent history in Pullman of playing down to the opponents level and not starting fast out of the gate.

  10. Two outcomes in two different universes.

    1) Current Universe- 45-0 Washington State.
    2) Universe where Gary pulls his fucking head out of McGiven’s ass- 42-35 Washington State….Oregon State comes out punching in the first 2 1/2 Q’s of the game, but then implodes to allow Washington 21 unanswered points.

    Conclusion: We will lose because Gary has turned this team into a dumpster fire.

      • Well, I’m suspecting our defense won’t stop them, and I don’t see us scoring a single point because honestly- 3 games of a predictably stupid offense is eventually going to give DC’s at Pac-12 schools a smile of pure glee.

  11. I think we’re looking at a replay of the game there two years ago. 42-7 Cougs at the half. Falk gets pulled when WSU reaches 49 or 56. Final: 56-21. Even the best case scenario is something along the lines of 42-21; that’s what the over/under and spread suggests.

  12. 42-27 WSU, Beavs make an early push only to come apart in the 3rd quarter.

    On a separate note, GA was on 1080 yesterday afternoon and described why he is throwing more than he would like. He said that he needs the pass to open up the run game because the OL isn’t creating creases. He stated that if he had creases he would use the run game to setup the pass and that he must get more creative in finding ways to create creases without having to establish the pass threat early on. This could very likely be the culprit, and if so why the hell has it taken him 3 years to figure out that he needs quality OL? MR had the very same issues late in his tenure that I believe was partially responsible for the regression. It doesn’t appear that our O lineman don’t progress much annually nor can the staff properly evaluate this position in recruiting. Very strange since GA was an O lineman himself. A strong OL could hide a myriad of defincies offensively, but a weak OL will hide many deficiencies and proficiencies making it difficult to refine the offensive from one year to the next.

    • Yeah, I think perhaps the root of the issue is the OL. They lost quite a bit from last season. I see A LOT of 3 and outs if they run like folks wish. Not saying the alternative is better. Probably both shit.

      • How about we put it this way.

        When we run the ball, even to make up for our first down failures, we score.

        When we go pass happy, we look like we’re pass happy.

  13. Wazzu stacks the box on defense; dares Beavs to run. Offense can’t sustain drives. Falls behind early leading to more passing to play catch-up. Tired defense/depleted secondary on the field a lot loses time of possession 37:00 to 23:00. Wazzu lets up in 4th quarter with a 3 or 4 touchdown lead. 45-20.

    One positive – Nall starts playing angry and busts a big run.

    • Stack it all you want. We’re going to beat our heads against your wall until it falls down. It will fall sooner than many think, primarily you.

      That’s why GA’s statement about the O-line is untrue. The scheme allows those defenders to be in the run lanes because you’re trying to get your QB game reps. But what you fail to do is give him quality game reps.

      Run the damn ball.

      Is this what Alvarez didn’t understand? I’m starting to not understand.

        • What is a “Phil Jackson?”

          I thought Jackson ground the Knicks into mediocrity and underachievement, soured player relations, and left the organization because neither he nor the organization saw a positive future?

          Hmmm….what if GA is pulling a Phil Jackson on OSU?

          • Jackson also struggled to find an offensive “identity,” failing to get the triangle offense running effectively with the Knicks; wrong personnel and/or player resistance to the system. Again, sounds a bit like Andersen…

          • He’s got to deal with Anthony being on his team. He recognized he needed to trade him, but everyone else knew what was up or fans in NY are irrational about Carmelo. No offensive system works with a black hole like him on the floor.

          • Jackson made his own bed with Carmelo. Gave him a 5 year contract extension a few years back and as part of the deal, he gave Carmelo the ability to veto any trade if he didn’t like where he was being sent. Now, as Phil tries to trade Carmelo away, Carmelo has said he’s only willing to go one place, Houston. Houston only has worse contracts to offer and have no competition to drive up the trade value, so everybody is in standoff. Phil created this scenario by himself.

          • I don’t know.

            Jackson started that negotiation with Melo asking for a one year tender, explaining that he could get some good players that would mesh with him. Then his value would be apparent, and he could sign for max at that time.

            Then he signs for max and gets a no-trade clause?

            Either Dolan stepped in and made Jackson do that, or Melo has some interesting pics of some management Christmas party somewhere.

            If that was Jackson’s choice, so be it. But it just smacks of the way Dolan does business. The Knicks were capped and old, plus Melo. Jackson knew that and tried to explain it very clearly. Then he killed his team?

            That sounds like Jimmy Dolan to me.

  14. If the players were so concerned about losing, wouldn’t we have heard by now about a “Players’ Only” meeting? Just so tired of being the PAC-12 doormat

    • I think that is a big problem for OSU; football, particularly the current offering, is boring.

      In the offseason, I thought I’d make the 5 hour drive to Corvallis for the Minnesota night game…after the previous games, there’s no way I spend that much time on the road, get a hotel, to watch the game played like that.

      People are going to stop getting season tickets and attending games, and it will be a long while before they come back.

      • Football is almost always boring. It’s about 150 five second spurts (a dozen or so of them exciting) over a four hour period. That’s about how much action?

        Add that the exciting parts mostly happen because it’s an 18 year-old (or two) playing poor football out of position.

        College football as a whole has been declining in attendance for six straight years. It’s not like we’re alone in this.

          • Pretty much.

            If it wasn’t for visiting with friends and family, why go to games any more?

            Pricing over the last five years might also be out of whack. When demand says your price hikes are short-sighted despite the increased revenues, maybe a correction is in order.

  15. Here’s a question for some of you offense experts:

    Jason Phillips is the passing game coordinator correct? He has an extensive background in the run & shoot. I don’t know much about it so I googled the quick and dirty on it and it’s basically snap, 3 steps, pass, or snap, 3 steps, handoff. Whatever happens get the ball out quick.

    One of the main facets is supposed to be motion on every play, keep the defense moving and guessing. Is it me, or does this sound like the complete opposite of the passing game right now? I don’t remember seeing motion of any kind at all this year. There also seems to be a focus on the long yardage vertical passing game. Part of that is the QB decision making. But it can’t all be?

    • It’s the framework for running tempo. Get everyone lined up quickly to keep the D on the field. That way you have enough time to choose their weakness and exploit it. Then you run motion to get to your set, and a good QB will watch how the D resets, and go from there.

      GA has repeatedly said QBs need to get the ball out quickly in years past. He hasn’t said so (that I know of) this year. First it was hand-offs. Now it’s that Luton is getting hesitant on his reads… except for those that are late over the middle.

      • Yeah it all just seems so disjointed. It’s fairly easy to assume what the passing game would look like if the passing game coordinator was allowed to coordinate it.

        One facet of the run & shoot I liked is the preference for a big bruising 220-230# back. The idea is that the defense will put more of their smaller faster guys on the field to cover all the receivers then when you run it they’ll get beat on by the big back.

        • You put your own D in that predicament by practicing that way. They could be a great group of players who could stop the run, but if they never practice stopping the run….

          • Incorrect. They’re smaller and less experienced than last year. They’ve played Montana State and Boise State O-line that sucks so bad they killed their starting QB just 4.5 quarters into the season. And most of the damage to Rypien came from Troy, not Wazzu.

            So one FCS and one O-line-less Boise with a back-up QB into the year, they’re 68 in rush D. And that’s counting yards from sacks. They’re athletic and fluid enough to be a good pass rush. But they can be moved by bad O-lines.

          • That’s this year. Since the pirate got his new DC they’ve been over all pretty good. Not amazing. Not terrible. But pretty damn good. It’s not like the offense can’t just line it up and run it to get the defense some reps.

          • Looking at their roster, they’re smaller and less experienced up front than I thought. Their best two players on the D-line come in at 237# and 251#. They have one 305# space eater on their roster. They have one DL who plays a lot and is decent at about 275#. There’s another who is a warm body at about that same weight. Then they have four more on their roster between 260# and 280# who get ST play or are sidelined with injuries.

            Snap the ball. Hand the ball off. Put a hat on a fucking hat, and run the damn ball.

            When their backers and safeties are committed to a long day of having to stop much bigger people than them running right at them, flick a pass here and there.

    • Sounds like GA let the assistants Cowboy it up a bit, experiment, reinvent football….get away from the fundamentals. Time to get back to basics, establish a sound running game, and a good run stopping defense. Sounds simple to me.
      For the love of the game, no more gunslingin’!!

    • Besides talking about needing to change schemes on offense, he also mentions he is spending as much time as he can with the defense, because that is where he can be most beneficial. Seems to have more of the determination back, as well. This sounded different from his blase comments earlier in the season, to me.

      I’m more optimistic that they are going to turn a corner. Not saying they will win a bunch of games, but at least be more competitive. Cougs 24-17.

    • Going back to the dam podcast, they mentioned that GA has been shadowing Clune much more closely this week.
      Doesn’t it feel like McG needs the shadowing, even more?

      Also, earlier this summer, at the beginning of fall camp, a reporter asked clune how it was reporting to camp earlier than usual.(week zero game plus ncaa rules extended camp to eliminate daily doubles meant reporting 2 weeks earlier than usual)
      Clune basically sounded annoyed that he had to be at work already, and gave off the vibe that he was miffed about not getting enough time off in the off season (not his specific words, just what i read into it) Seems like he is having a hard time adjusting to big boy pants football. Wonder if anybody gets the boot, if it will be him?
      Seems like the most likely candidate, even though i think McG is more deserving.

      • I think he’s just laying down the law with the offensive staff. But, he says in the interview that’s not his specialty, so he is focusing on the defense.

        In my non-expert opinion, I think the coordinators are the source of recruiting issues, team chemistry due to poor schemes and play-calling, and overall poor performance. I would be happy, all things considered, if he gets a couple more wins this season and gets rid of both coordinators by the end of the season (hopefully sooner). Of course, Andersen mentions he doesn’t use Twitter, which reminds me of the old fogey coaches in the previous UO staff that let recruiting slip.

  16. We will get pounded this week and probably not win another game this season (they might win the ASU game). It feels like GA has lost the team and is quicklylosing confidence with both of his coordinators. No matter how bad this gets GA will get at least one more season.  My guess is he will fire both Clune and McG and start over with a rebuild again next season.  I was all in favor with finding a better weapon at QB knowing the limitations of 3M.  I’ll admit it I gotfooled by wanting to see the shiny new toy.  Sending 3M packing and bringing in Luton is a huge part of this implosion.  All the momentum that was generated at the end of last season was destroyed with the way the QB situation was handled.  Also I think this staff just assumed the upward trajectory would continue no matter what buttons they pushed. 

  17. Good podcast: https://soundcloud.com/dam-podcast/the-angry-beaver

    They nailed it. Seems like they’re getting a lot of material from here unless the people on Blitz are finally critical thinkers.

    Sprague brings up a good point that I forgot, which is GA missed on Mason Moran as a QB, too. Angie ranking the coaches on recruiting was interesting, too. Lost a lot of recruiters. She gave McGiven a 0 star as a recruiter. I agree. Didn’t realize TJ Woods was so bad, too.

    • Basically Telly, GA, Hall, Phillips and Chad are the only recruiters to at least be average, in my opinion. That’s alot of guys who get a free pass. Seems like Kerry Taylor has potential, given his AZ high school ties and NFL background.

      We really miss Brennan and Odum in recruiting.
      She had Sitake/Tuiaki rated pretty high which I dont really agree with. How many of their guys actually panned out so far? Several went on missions and never returned, Taylor was an academic casualty. I’ve never seen Thor Katoa play.
      Togiai was their best get

  18. I suspect the middle of OSU’s O-Line is going to struggle with the interior D-lineman, and McGiven will want to “run outside and away from WSU’s strength” There may be more low snaps skidding across the turf from Houston as he anxiously attempts to get into protection/blocking post snap. I won’t be surprised if Luton isn’t pulled by/before 3rd quarter due to injury.

    Run the goddamned ball. As Jack said, even if you don’t see benefits until the second half, run the fucking ball. Otherwise it will be extremely ugly. And lets see some pre-snap motion as mentioned above, its worked previously, and it sounds like they’ve gone away from it.

    Nall, Pierce, and Johnson are all probably angry, or should be, let them run angry. Angry Beavs…

  19. Right now, does the team have around .500 P-12 talent? To me that would be 5-4/4-5 in league play. If they don’t, then none of this is going to matter. If they do, then yes something needs to happen with the coaching staff. I ‘m just not sure. Prediction as it stands. Wazzu 45 OSU 21.

  20. Honestly Baldwin would be a huge upgrade. I know everyone was critical on him, as was ga, but what was he given to work with year 1? The talent we had was bad.

    Our offense line is not up to snuff yet, and I fear based on recruiting it won’t be for a while. But seriously Seth Collins as a true freshman quarterback was his best option. We now have him as a junior plus 2 guys better? Than him. Plus a lot more talent at receiver than we have had in a while.

    I’d honestly really like to see what he would scheme up. Even if it was a trial 2-3 games and us as fans didn’t know. That’s what I would do as head coach.

    That plus ga take over defensive play call. Make clune help on the dline. I feel that’s our only chance at being average to bad this year, rather than just bad. Hope they come up with something.

    Go Beavs

  21. Remember when Nall ran against Stanford and had success then the gameplan against Utah the next week was to avoid running Nall at all because the staff was convinced that it was futile to run inside against Utah’s d-line? I think this smacks of little boy pants football. It seems best to at least try to play to your strengths before abandoning the idea. Even worse is the staff can’t gameplan to exploit the opponents weaknesses, just to avoid their strengths which means underutilizing their own strengths.

    BIg boy football means line up and run at them until they make you stop running, right? Or game-planning a way to force the opponent to modify his plan, cause confusion.

      • In fairness that’s the Patriots’ MO and they are very successful at it.

        Counterpoint: there’s a reason that almost no other team operates that way. You need an extremely intelligent and capable coaching staff to pull that off. And a HoF QB always helps…

      • GA addresses that in the Canzano podcast. Said the impose our will approach failed. However, he said, that does not mean should abandon the run, need to find more creative ways to get creases for the RBs.

        I think people are overestimating this OL’s capabilities.

        • It was working against CSU mid-way through the second quarter. Then we gave it up. It worked whenever we tried it against PSU. We were holding our own against a good Minnie D front until we abandoned the run.

          I think people are only remembering what the O-line looks like once the coaches give up.

    • Gary needs to get those moles checked out. Dude is red as a crab and thinks that little visor is going to protect him from a star. A fucking star!

  22. McPassin is awed by what he thinks we are and tries to out pass the Cougs. It doesn’t go well and the Cougs roll 47-20. On the bright side this is finally the game that leads to McPAssin starting to run more.

  23. PHIL STEELE REPORT:

    Home team is 3-8. Last year Oregon State led 21-0 with 7:04 2nd quarter & 24-7 at halftime (Washington State just 5 1st Half possessions). Washington State down 3 went up for good after a 80 yard/7 play TD drive with 10:19 left. Oregon State’s last 3 drives ended at the Washington State 35 & 34 (end of game at their own 40), Washington State won on the road 35-31. Washington State was +104 yards per game and +17 points per game at home last year. Oregon State was -158 yards per game and -19 points per game on the road in 2016. Luke Falk was injured last week, but Tyler Hillinski led the 21 point comeback vs Boise State. Oregon State QB Jake Luton has a 4-4 ratio and powerful RB Ryan Nall did not start last week as they try to add speed to the offense. The Cougars have dropped 5 straight vs the Vegas number and Oregon State has their backs to the wall and that makes this a closer game than expected. Washington State’s offense has just 31 points per game in regulation this year.

    WASHINGTON STATE 38 OREGON STATE 21

    Postion by Position Edges:

    WHEN OREGON STATE HAS THE BALL:
    Oregon State QB/WR vs Washington State DB’s: ORST +0.50
    Oregon State RB’s vs Washington State LB’s: WAST +0.03
    Oregon State OL vs Washington State DL: ORST +0.29

    WHEN WASHINGTON STATE HAS THE BALL:
    Oregon State DL vs Washington State OL: WAST +1.12
    Oregon State LB’s vs Washington State RB’s: WAST +0.68
    Oregon State DB’s vs Washington State QB/WR: WAST +1.96

    MISCELLANEOUS:
    Special Teams: ORST +0.18
    Kicking: WAST +0.95
    Coaching Staff: WAST +0.40

    ORST Total Points: 0.97
    WAST Total Points 5.15
    Positional Edge Awarded To: Washington State +4.18

    Las Vegas Line: Washington State by 21
    Las Vegas Total: 64 Points
    +/- Ratings: Washington State by 16.5
    Game Grade: Washington State by 32.9
    Computer Yards: Washington State 553-313
    Computer Points: Washington State 44-20

    • If the objective view is that DB’s are the Cougs weakness, I’m just going to resign myself another long evening of “gunslinging.”

      • It’s not. I’m not sure where he gets his numbers.

        Their Pass D is 19th. Their run D is 68th.

        They’ve played against Montana State and Boise State. Boise State’s O-line is so bad that they killed their QB against Troy. He should not have tried to start against Wazzu. So Boise ends up as the 73rd best run O.

        Wazzu’s run D is 68th against an FCS school and one of the worst O-lines in FBS.

        You might think that’s just a situational stat. So if we go look up how their red zone D looks, we find out they’re tied for 74th, not far ahead of us. I don’t need to remind anyone that we have not been good thus far on D.

        • NCAA statbook can be pretty misleading. Let me give you an example: In 2014 San Diego State came into the game with the Beavers with a top 5 passing defense. Why? They had just played Air Force, and had only given up somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 passing yards the previous game. The reason: simple: Air Force didn’t pass. If you had looked at these numbers that week, they wouldve been more in the 50-65 range than what the NCAA was telling you. It’s not just what kind of defense you are playing, it is the offense you are playing against, and unlike in the NCAA overall statistical page that you’re using, this actually takes that into account.

          • That’s what I’m saying. They’re at 19 and 68 despite playing some weak or limping offenses. It’s going to get worse for them this season. Whether it starts with us or not is the question. It’s there for the taking.

            What they did manage to do was to score on two plays and get their O the ball on the 24. That sounds to me like they have speed but no heft. They like to play around the edges. Other than that, they gave up something like 400 yards and 24 points to a Boise team who matches our O play with lesser personnel.

            And what they also have is Luke Falk. I don’t forget him. I just don’t know if his head good to go after that turf bounce. Regardless, their back-up looks capable enough to run about 70% of their O well. So there’s just going to be a lot of running on D.

  24. I was watching the 2012 Beavs play the Cougs on PAC12 Football in 60 this morning. For all of it’s warts, that was an actual offense. Handoffs were quick with the back (Woods or Agnew) hitting the hole on a dead run. Wheaton and Cooks on the outside. Poyer and Crichton on defense.

    Odd yearning for the “Good ole days” even when they weren’t very good.

  25. Not going to be pretty. Aunt Patty never takes her foot off the pedal. 58-14 Cougs.

    Check out photos. Leach going full Aunt Patty in 2017. Longer hair and bigger moobs.

    I remember these hopeless road trips. It felt like I was leading lambs to slaughter. At least with home loses we could all slink home in an hour.

  26. I keep seeing criticism of our O-line, both from people here and the coaches. Can someone point to some evidence that that’s the group holding our offense back? I haven’t been overly impressed with them, but they certainly haven’t stood out as a glaring weakness like they have in certain years past.

    What I’ve seen of run blocking is that sometimes the holes are there, sometimes they’re not. The sack per dropback ratio is actually really good. The majority of pressure I’ve seen seems to be late in the game when the team has given up, anyway.

    • Does Jack approve of this post? I do.

      Not long ago we were told that run blocking was easier and more fun than pass blocking. That going on the offense, so to speak, allowed Olineman to take the initiative in their matchups. Where did that idea go?

      The O line is told it is too weak to open holes, gets a pat on the back for (mostly) preventing sacks, and probably practices more pass than rush. Yet, the average per rush is over 4.4 ypc. And that includes Luton’s few sideways scampers(?).

      4.4 ypc, and that’s from a shotgun formation with slow to develop plays.

      • This is what I’m seeing. I’m thinking this is what Woods is seeing too.

        When we don’t break for lunch during a read zone mesh, there are holes. Pierce runs through them a lot. When RBs pick up the rush, there are a lot less sacks.

        It’s that Luton is playing a hesitant game. His read zone mesh takes more time to develop than a stretch play. The holes appear then close before we’re going downhill. That’s not the O-line’s fault. It’s also not their fault that Luton holds the ball too long when there are multiple open receivers on many plays. He holds the ball so long that he’s late on dump-offs.

        You’re correct. We’re getting good ypc even though we create these problems for ourselves. And we have decent pass pro for an adequate count. Even if I’m reading only the stats and not watching tape, I think our O-line is decent to good, just not consistently good.

        If all I watch is our O-line in the second half when we go all pass happy and start punting a lot, I think nothing works. But I wouldn’t blame the O-line. I don’t see many sacks. I see missed opportunities in open receivers. I don’t see many runs, but what I see are some decent gainers. And then I go to the stats and see we didn’t abandon the run because of ypc when the opponent’s D was fresh. In fact, we ran it well and scored. So what are they doing? What are they seeing?

    • Seems like the hand off delay – which I guess is supposed to allow the RB to pick an opening? – is too slow, read easily, and allows the D to full run lanes. Seems mixing it up with quick hitting run plays would help, as might actually taking snaps from under center.

    • I see a lot of people mentioning “imposing our will” against the opponent. That’s what I don’t think the O line is good enough to do. They lost 3 linemen from last season, some of which are in the NFL, IIRC. It would naturally take time to gel, at the least. Most of the 2 deep is two or three star players with few P5 or no other offers. They are not loaded with 4 and 5 star talent like Alabama or Stanford. Their yards per carry is like 64th in the country, against a weak schedule.

      GA says they have failed when they try to impose their will, and mentions some things they have to adjust in their scheme to still be successful running the ball. He places the onus on the offensive staff to figure out ways to do so. If they don’t in the next couple of games, they should be gone. If they do, and the run game is still not successful, then their is either not the talent or the motivation. In either case, it points back to the deficiencies in the offensive coaches: schemes and/or recruiting.

      • They have yet to try. Imposition of will requires beating on a D until they break. Just about every college D will eventually break if you do this. I would say the top five (maybe) Ds on this level can sustain a full game beating of even three-and-outs.

        Imposition of will is a game-long mindset. It’s not something you give up on because they figured out that you like to run counter right with that personnel group, and you can’t run that play any more. It’s allowing your O-line to get off the line and hit people instead of getting clubbed and tossed on every play.

  27. Don’t post the Beavers are going to lose. The kids are probably reading this and see your 63 to 10 loss predictions, back them up. Give them some encouragement, remember they’re not doing this for a living, they’re barely adults…

    My prediction: Beavs win someway and if not, there’s always next week.

    • Internet message boards are the worst place to look for positive encouragement. They’re young and internet-savvy. They should know that. If all it takes is strangers calling out poor performances that are plain as day to ruin your ego, you’re wearing little kid pants, as GA might say.

      • Pretty much across the board everybody, with a few exceptions, oicked the Beavs to beat CSU in week 0. Then in week 1 everybody predicted a thumping of PSU The positivity didn’t seem to make a difference. In fact, maybe it has the opposite effect, by making them over confident?

    • 77-10.

      Sorry, but these boys need to start performing before I can give them a vote of confidence. This isn’t T-Ball where everyone gets a participation trophy and a juice box after the game.

      ~GWH

      • Ok, the Beavers are horrible, why are they even in the Pac 12? They should be in Division 2, They’re nothing more than tackling dummies and a way to pad a record, everyone marks this one down as an automatic win….Does this make you feel better?

        • Dude, first of all welcome. Second, this board is about a “critical view” of beaver sports. It’s not a kumbaya, circle jerk of delusional positivity.
          The fact is, a lot of issues that the coaching staff is now talking about in the media, was called out here in the first half of the first game. And some of it before the season even started. And players aren’t reading this site.

        • Hey Steve-O, welcome.

          Out of curiosity, have you read any of the OSU football COACHES quoites this week?

          Here’s a start…
          “What doesn’t need to be corrected?…’You miss a protection on a 1-on-1 block — does that mean your protection schemes are bad? Not really,’ McGiven said. ‘That guard missed on that play. A quarterback misses a wide-open target.” OC Kevin McGiven

          There are more to be found online if you check the google machine.

          • Speaking of those quotes makes me think McGiven is myopic, stuck in the minutia while he cannot see the run is actually working and the thing the whole team needs.

  28. I just had a terrible thought. With Schnell getting fired by SI.com this week and Gina moving to Denver…….does Schnell return to Oregonlive to cover OSU football again?

  29. I’m curious to see how WSU starting center Fred Mauigoa looks. He was one of our bigger recruiting misses of the last couple of years. Joe Salavea(now with Oregon) was the coach who convinced him to play for the Cougs. He was a signing day decision guy who had us and WSU in his top 2 and would have been more highly recruited if he werent from A.Samoa

  30. Funny, Rick Neuheisal on local radio being asked about why Oregon State has come out so flat this year.

    He says they had an offensive philopshopy last year towards the end of the season that worked for them(run Nall, control the clock, limit the time their defense stays on the field), but this year for whatever reason, they’ve gone completely away from that philosophy and gary andersen has fallen in love with luton, which prevents them from controlling the clock and leaves their thin defense on the field for way too long.(paraphrasing)

    Exactly, Rick. Nice to hear somebody from the media calling them out.

  31. I’d like to see them play the entire WSU game without a single pass and just see what happens. My guess is the game would be short, score much lower, D stats much better. Seems like a better shot at a win than trying to out-throw WSU.

    • While we’re wishing:
      -I’d like to see two back sets with the QB under center at least 50% of the time.
      -I’d like to see a philosophy which often includes rushing on 3rd AND 4th down when in a 3rd and 5 situation, not automatically calling a pass followed by a punt.
      -I’d like to see ZERO passes on first down.
      -I’d like to see the snap cadence varied.
      -And, I’d like to see Tre Johnson, along with AP and Ryan, getting significant carries.

      Not “in any way, shape, or form” expecting to see all of the above. Two out of the five though, could make a positive difference, and if they don’t “it’s on me”.

    • I’m having a problem with the idea that the Beav D is O.K. and the problem is with the O. Especially when I consider the teams that the Beavs were playing when their D racked up these stats.

      “…The Beaver defense isn’t very good, to put it nicely. Nearly 40 percent of opponent plays go for a first down or touchdown (122nd); they allow a 65 percent completion percentage (112th) and 14.6 yards per completion (113th); 46 points per game (128th); nearly 27 first downs and 6 TDs per game (125th and 124th, respectively); and 483.7 total yards per game (116th)….”

      Nearly 40% of opponent plays go for a 1st down or a touchdown. OMG!

      And I’m not saying the O doesn’t suck, no, it’s just the opposite. They suck too.

  32. Terrible Offense, Terrible Defense, Terrible Special Teams… but just a few little things that need to be worked on, guys just need to trust each other, trust the process, keep on grindin’, work like crazy, get in the film room, give 110%, develop a mentality of winning…ugh blah blah blah

    Reminds me of 1996 when it was so easy to walk up to the home games because nobody cared. I’ll wait and see, but this team is statistically and historically bad and it is year 3. Yikes

  33. Just when you start to think Angie at Blitz might just start becoming a more likable person, she goes behind the backs of the people at Beaversedge and poaches their “insider”. Shows how little confidence she has in her product.

  34. On a side note, and this has been discussed already, this is Gina Mizell’s final game being covered at the Oregonian before she moves on to Denver. Her contributions are going to be missed, I thought she always did a good job of telling things like they are and cutting through a lot of the BS that fans can see right through in some of the events like press conferences. It will be difficult to find a comparable replacement for Beaver fans as far as daily beat writers are concerned.

  35. Still think this team is closer to breaking through than they look. McGiven is out-thinking himself, getting cute, forgetting what this team can do. Running the ball more against Minny would have changed the game. Nall should have started. Starting Pierce was McGiven thinking too much. In the 1st qtr the Beavs had 9 pass plays, 1 QB draw up the middle (wtf?), and 5 RB runs. Only one out of seven 1st and 10 plays was an RB run! The 9 pass plays resulted in 2 completions for first down, 2 fumble turnovers, and 5 incompletions. The 5 RB runs provided 4.8 yds per carry and 2 first downs, no negative plays or turnovers. Nall had one carry for 6 yds. Running game was working fine. If we just pounded it we probably are tied 7-7 after the first qtr (assuming Arnold still gives up that blown coverage TD) instead of down 10-0.

    We’ve got to run it today, over 2/3 of the time. Start Nall. Run it on 1st down. Run it again on 2nd and 5. Run it right at Hercules. Pass only on 2nd and short, 3rd and long, or in a 2 min drill. If McGiven cant stick to that formula then change to a play caller who will.

    • It’s not much for me to cling to, but the team has outscored their opponents in the first half, there have not been any blowouts from the get go,which seems to happen with truly non-competitive teams.

  36. Is that shady, or is that just business? I would guess as the Beavs continue to lose, their popularity will be at it’s lowest point in the past 20 years. This market can hardly sustain 2 site ls when times are good. I’ve noticed on twitter the number of Beaver fans “liking” and “retweeting” things has dropped dramatically since the season started. Those sites are likely affected similarly and they’re getting desperate to survive.
    Angie knew Gina was leaving. She also knew Greaves was the only other practice reporter who actually knew a thing or 2 about football, and it sounds like she took the opportunity to corner the market on practice reports. I still won’t pay for that shit, but to me it sounds like she just made a savvy business move at this risk of being a likable person. Par for the course for her.

    • Funny thing is, Marcus wasn’t really all that good at reportung and is replaceable. The one thing that he brought to the table though was I think he must have been Sedge’s lone “source” because of his connections to people on the team. If you start to see an uptick in reports from “sources” at Blitz and a decline of similar reports at Sedge, you’ll knoe who the mole is. That’s the shady side of the business, since teams aren’t technically allowed to release much of the type of info that gets out. Greaves represents a safe way to leak info to the media since he knows everybody involved.

    • Considering she bailed on her subscribers and bolted when SHTF it’s no surprise she did this. She’s all about self preservation. I guess most people are, but she is more obvious about it than most, and she seems to have no remorse about it.

  37. Agree with backs averaging close to 4.5 a carry this season the issue is simply not enough runs. Although when they do run I would be less concerned with ‘finding the edge.’ Whether Nall, AP or Freight ‘Tre’in Johnson they should do quick hit runs that burst ahead for positive yardage on 80+% of their runs. The other 15-20 percent or so can be edge or draw runs where there can be a slight delay of the handoff. Problem right now is 70% of the runs feel like the handoff is much too slow. The backs are still doing OK but will only do better with a quick handoff and quickly hitting the hole so they can almost always get 3-6 yards.

    The Beavs should run on 97% of first downs and should consider more situations like 3rd and 5 or 3rd and 4 as 4 down territory. I would play Garretson as with running as 60% of your plays the passing is needed only on some 2nd downs or 3rd and long. Most important is someone who will stick to the establish the run first approach especially in the 1st half to get the backs understanding and believing a path to having a chance ro win. McGiven if too tempted by Luton should be superseded by GA who should put in Garretson just to avoid this. Even then he should be barking in the headphones if McGiven starts to stray. Garretson also is a threat to run and that further helps the run game and gets the pass game out of some sticky situations because he has an ability to turn some of those times when no one is open and it isn’t worth forcing a throw into a run for gain.

    I expect the Beavs to not do nearly enough of these suggestions AngryBeavs has been all over and to lose by 24+. Seats shoild be toasty after this one if they don’t go with a winning plan yet again. Don’t want to hear ‘It’s on me’ when there are plenty of ways to reduce the dreadful play.

    48-20 Cougs.

  38. NIU defense turns another Husker turnover into a big return, taking it 50 yards to the Husker 9 yard line.
    Wish I was watching this unfold…

    • Well, gametracker said that was the play originally, but now it says Nebraska just punted it to NIU, so I guess the fumble never happened. Either way, NIU is a few minutes from shutting out nebraska for the 1st half

      • There was so much hype regarding Tanner Lee with Riley, but again he played for Tulane, it’s kind of like with Luton, he played for Idaho. I know I’m probably simplifying, but doesn’t that account for anything? This is Power 5 football now. And yes I know there are exceptions like Vernon Adams with the Ducks.

    • Regarding Riley’s extension, has NU football fallen so far that the administration is more concerned about their HC not offending anyone than running a program competently? If they lose this game, it will be interesting to see if a shit landslide falls on Riley from the fan base.

      • What were they thinking in extending him? I thought they were going to fire him…so was this some “vote of confidence” ? lol. Expensive vote.

      • Apparently the rationale at NU is that you need to reset your head coach’s contract to be four years out at the end of each season so he can sit in a home and tell kids he’s going to be there for their whole college career.

        This rationale has its flaws. First, if you don’t reset it in a timely manner you are signalling that you’re going to fire the guy. This may not be the case. But you leave yourself open to it. Second, I would think a school who thinks it is this far forward thinking would make it five years. Why isn’t it five years? Many of those incoming kids are going to redshirt. Third, you give up so much in negotiation if you just extend with rote habit.

        What’s not clear is if he has a buyout. NU has Bikey over a barrel. They probably gathered a bunch of boosters together and made him put Banker on speaker when they made him fire the guy. If he doesn’t succeed here, he doesn’t go anywhere else, and everybody knows it.

        So while he may be extended, there’s probably no buy out to speak of.

  39. Don’t worry about the D today guys. We are feeling well rested after our 10 hourbbus ride. (Should’ve been 8 but lots of pit stops for coach Baldwin). It was a great idea by ourbAD to take a bus last night and save money on hotels!

    Anyways. No worries about the D today. We brought our big boy pants. We’re gonna go head to head with Washington State. This is smash mouth. We plan to really stack the box and prevent the run. The key today will be to get a great push up the middle and limit them to edges and passing. I think we can do this today and will really limit their rushing attack. Big boy pants. Go Beavs!

  40. The announcers during the Nebraska game sort of brought up something I’ve been thinking is a market inefficiency that maybe OSU could take advantage of in recruiting. They brought up the idea of man blocking.

    I freely admit I am a zone blocking spread them out sort of guy but with so many programs doing that and the NFL openly complaining that lineman just don’t come into the league ready to play anymore I have began to think that maybe OSU would be smart to go to back to an old power running game with a play action vertical passing game.

    I know we all want them to run more because of who they have on the roster but this is more of a system approach. Commit to it, recruit to it, teach to it.

    If OSU is gonna succeed I think they need to moneyball the shit out of it and that feels like the place to do it to me.

    The other great thing about it is that it develops an attitude in the entire roster when your system is based around power running.

  41. It looks like Nebby is going to pull this out, but boy are they going to stink in Conference. Digging my 4 to 5 win prediction.

    Edit: Northern gets a quick score. Had no offense all day and yet put together a 75yard drive in just minutes to take the lead.

  42. This NIU coach is worth a look if GA can’t bring wins to the program. Has team focused, rhey can take rheir show on the road and like how the players handle themselvrs on the sideline. Don’t put too much stock in beating Riley but will be a big road win for them if NIU holds on.

    Team has showed up for plenty if other games against the B1G as well. Coach has worn his big boy pants a ton more than GA and his staff ever do.

  43. don’t understand that deep ball by NIU on third down, but I just want to remind people to tune into 1620 the zone’s Nebraska post game call in show after the game. Even if Riley pulls this out it should be epic

    • Darn, I don’t have time to tune in. Post any great quotes and the general sentiment. I’m sure they’ll all want him canned (a few days after an extension lolol).

  44. first take on the zone’s guys is that Nebraska is an emotionally weak team, soft, can’t deal with adversity; didn’t come ready to play. All comments right out of the Angry playbook

  45. From Huskermax:

    “I can’t believe the players are coached to play the way they are. A lot of this has to fall on the players.”

    That’s some next level Rileyfication. Can’t be Riley and his staff’s fault! Blame the players!

  46. Didn’t read thru all the comments, and I’m sure this has been brought up….

    Both starting corners out, Williams for the year……safety Jalen Moore out 1st half from targetING penalty…..Morris gets start at safety….kid is living up to the hype, but today will be tough. We get Collins back…..big boost for O.

    All that said, I don’t see how we don’t give up 60+……this is just a horrible matchup for our D who has yet to record a sack, and a secondary that……yea

    I will be amazed if we can somehow keep this one close

  47. Zone guys talking about the “it” factor; another favorite Angry trope. Riley doesn’t have it. Can’t galvanize players emotional. He doesn’t offset his weaknesses. making fun of his bundling up on the sideline. doesn’t convey seriousness of purpose; won’t get in anyone’s face. no fire. not ready to play.

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