I guess the narrative has to be “recover and get the best bowl game you can” at this point.
Smith ruined our season, so this is where we are at. I think we’ll be able to run on Colorado and win this game, but I don’t know if the coaches will be (a) smart enough to do this and (b) disciplined enough to do this.
Therefore…
27, 24 Beavs as Smith takes a 4th and short FG and it winds up being the difference.
First muddafuckas!
Stanford game will be a 2:30 kick off on Pac-12 networks
I still don’t understand how we showed them that look on a delay of game penalty earlier in the game, then tried it again with no time on the clock. I didn’t even watch the last 6 minutes of the game I was so disgusted.
Exactly
The problem with Colorado is that they are loaded at the skill positions. Our corners struggle with tackling and the receivers don’t get much separation.
If Lindgren gets pass happy, we get blown out.
So frustrating when we got the ball back with around 8 minutes to go, which would have been perfect for a long slow time killing drive, but instead we called 3 straight passing plays and punted, putting our defense right back on the field. That was almost as bad as the Field Goal fake attempt. At least in that situation, it was a bit of a bonus possession since McCarten got us the turnover with little time remaining.
Tbh if we’re losing and it’s the last play of the game I would not be surprised if Smith punted hoping the team would muff it, like in that King of the Hill episode. “BuT wE hAd ThE mAtChUp We LiKeD”
Luckily Colorado’s line on both sides of the ball do not compare to ours. They will likely look for quick plays and screens so Shadeur doesn’t have to hold the ball. Key will be open field tackling on D and playing ball control and running the rock consistently.
If open field tackling and sticking with the run game are the keys to winning, we’re screwed.
If you’ve ever considered going to a bowl game but put it off for a future year, this is not the year to do that.
We may never have a decent bowl game again. If the courts don’t rule in our favor AND we piss away a bunch of money on legal fees, we’ll be in pretty bad shape as a program.
Make a point of going this year and crossing that event off your bucket list.
Despite how much Smith pissed me off Saturday, I’m going to UW@OSU, which will probably be a bigger game innterms of meaning and crowd energy than a mid-low tier bowl game.
I’d potentially consider the Holiday Bowl, despite the fact its in a baseball stadium…
Bowl game crowd energy isn’t really all that good anyway, just because it’s a smaller fan base that can travel to a road game. But the days leading up to the game can be good time (depending on where the game is located, of course).
UW game could be scary if the Beavs fans perceive they’re getting shafted by the refs
They should hold the holiday bowl in Snapdragon. That place looks perfect for a bowl game setup.
It does seem like the coaches learn from their mistakes in a bad game and correct them for the next game or two. The problem is that their memories are very short, and they eventually go back to their idiotic ways. That probably bodes well for the next two games, but be prepared for idiocy against UW and UO.
8-4 is our ceiling this year.
Recency bias as opposed to learning?
10-2 or 9-3 worse case. Before Alamo worse case bowl game
That and sprinkle in a bit of the gambler’s fallacy….
Open field tackling will be even tougher without the gold neck chains to hang onto. I’m thinking this is at least half a point in favor of the naked Buffs.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/pac12/2023/10/30/colorado-buffaloes-say-jewelry-stolen-locker-room-ucla/71380973007/
Luck-O-Da Beavs?
Hope the Beavs go on a tear – win out – screw the Pac-12’s playoff chances – take out the Ducks and the Huskies – let the chips fall. But first thing they gotta do is pound Colorado.
Not beating hole this year.
As long as we don’t have a long time for the coaches to over-think it, we have a puncher’s chance.
Been saying it since August.
https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2023/10/joe-freeman-a-bad-call-leads-to-a-death-in-the-desert-for-oregon-state-beavers.html
“The Beavers had worked on the fake for two weeks in practice and it had been successful. But it was designed to pick up four or maybe five yards on fourth down to keep a drive going, not 30 yards on a touchdown gallop.”
“I was just champing at the bit to get the thing called,” Smith said. “What we anticipated, really what we got, was really a pretty good look. I just rolled the dice on that one, and in hindsight, it was not good.”
Well there’s your problem. Let go of the temptation to spend two weeks trying to figure out how to exploit a special teams vulnerability you see on film and an opportunity to be “ultra-aggressive”
You’re 6-1 and ranked #11 for a reason. You don’t have to get fixated on those kinds of flash in the pan special teams plays. Understand your weaknesses and how a well-coached team will try to exploit them, leverage the game back you your strengths. Run the ball, limit the amount of processing you are relying on from DJU. Be aggressive on D and be mindful of them trying to take advantage of mismatches at DE and ILB, take away their attempts to challenge the inexperienced DB’s.
Time to play grown up football and learn how to win from the favored position instead of the underdog role, especially on the road.
And look at CONTEXT, not the abstract of practicing it. The fucking play is not the goal! Its the means to a goal in the right context! Like when you need 4-5 yards, AND you haven’t already mismanaged the clock and tipped off your opponent.
Only a moron would call that in that situation
If we’re not careful I could see us not winning another game. Sounds like an overreaction but with Smith’s gambling you never know what it could lead to. We need to push the pace and be up in points early so we don’t get put into a situation for him to decide to go on 4th vs taking points. And the other factor is what that call did to the locker room and the minds of the players.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility, especially if our corners do not get better. Stanford can throw fades and back shoulders all day and we can’t do shit.
It’s inconceivable that your premiere running back was averaging 6.2 yards per carry and he only got 14 carries.
I feel like we’re back in the MR days when every press conference after a loss would include him saying “I wish we would have ran the ball more”.
Well, Coach, it’s not your f’ing job to “wish”.
The problem is that in the pro-style offense, you are set up to leverage your advantage based on what the defense is showing/giving you and to be completely adaptable/balanced. If they show stop-the-run, DJU is correct in directing the team to a passing option. If the opposition is showing stop-the-run in hopes that the QB will act accordingly and direct the team toward the “correct” passing option, but then the defense stays sound and forces the QB to process through multiple post-snap reads quickly in order to find the opening/advantage, the QB must be able to do this well or the pro-style offense is ineffective. That’s why NFL football is a completely different monster.
DJU has shown major talent, resilience, and improvement, but also that this is the weakest part of his game. Other coaches can watch the film and easily identify this. Arizona did a fantastic job at forcing or our offense to be reliant on his ability to process quickly in order to be successful. The 4th quarter drive with a 20-17 lead is a really good example of this playing out. All of beaver nation is screaming RUN THE BALL, but Arizona shows a stacked box and DJ leans into the CORRECT reads, but struggles to make a decision quickly enough and we miss an open Velling and Martinez on 3 straight plays and punt it away.
It’s the downside of being built on a pro-style offense. You’ve gotta be able execute at a “professional” level or the Defense can force you into your weakness and make it all very ineffective. Arizona put on a clinic of how to do this all game long. The fake field goal was colossally stupid but that’s ultimately what made them ineffective at putting together drives and lost them the game.
Agreed. I got so nervous every time DJU sat in the pocket for more than 4 seconds. At that point I knew nothing good was going to happen. When he winds up in the first 3-4 seconds I’m confident he’s being decisive and making a good play.
That’s only when he sees his first read. He doesn’t seem to be a quick thinker. Not even when there is a wide open alternative receiver. Not sure why he holds back on running. Chile’s recovered a bad snap and was creative. Not sure what DJ would have done.
I meant when zona was leading 20-17, after they forced em to punt with around 10 min left. The fake FG was terrible but what is more painful to me is seeing all the open looks that were missed and that they could have just handed off to 6 and 1 over and over again regardless of the box being crowded and walked away with 42-21 quality conf win on the road.
“That’s why NFL football is a completely different monster.”
Key part of your comment.
If UA is loading the box against us, a pro-style O, RUN THE FUCKING BALL AT THEM!!!!!!!
IT’S UA, NOT THE NFL!!!!!
Believe it or not, the Beavers still for the most part control their own destiny for a trip to Vegas. I’ll preface by saying I don’t think the Beavs have any shot of winning in Eugene but it’s fun to dream while we still can and there’s a very realistic path here…There’s all sorts of ways this could pan out. Here’s a breakdown per team:
Oregon State:
-Win out. This includes wins over Washington and Oregon. Finish with a 7-2 record. In all scenarios I toss around below, they are all operating under the assumption that OSU won out.
We are also going to assume that Stanford, ASU, Colorado and Cal will not beat anyone of significance the rest of the season.
Washington:
-There’s almost nothing they can do to miss Vegas at this point unless they find a way to lose 3 conference games. In this scenario we’re picturing, they get 1 loss in Corvallis. They are @ USC, home for Utah and WSU. Even if they lose to USC and OSU, they’re still in at 7-2.
USC:
One of the craziest outcomes of all of this could be USC somehow winning out and finding themselves in Vegas after supposedly already losing their season. There is one scenario where USC can actually play spoiler to the Beavs, and it has to do with Arizona. I’ll get to that in a second. I don’t see how USC beats Washington or Oregon, but if they were to beat one of them, Washington feels more likely, especially at home. If USC finishes 7-2? Things could get real interesting, and we could even have a 5 way tie at 7-2. But even if that happens, OSU goes to Vegas.
Arizona:
-I’m going to assume that Arizona wins out. The schedule is quite favorable. Home for UCLA, @ Colorado, home for Utah, @ ASU. Not sure why they wouldn’t win out given how they’ve played the last 4 games. That puts them at 7-2. The one scenario where they can go to Vegas is if they get in a tie with Oregon State for 2nd place. But this outcome is unlikely because it would require USC to lose to Washington and UCLA but then find a way to win in Eugene. This would mean that Oregon has 3 losses (UW, USC, OSU), USC has 3 losses (Utah, UW, UCLA) and UCLA has 3 losses (Utah, OSU, AZ). And Arizona beats Oregon State in a 7-2 tie for 2nd because of the H2H win. But if Arizona loses again, they’re obviously out.
Utah:
-They aren’t out of it either, somehow. They could win out and get in. Remember, in this scenario we’re assuming the Beavs win out. In fact, as long as Utah wins out and OSU beats one of UW and Oregon, Utah is in. They have less room for error and need some help, but they’re not out of it.
Oregon:
A two loss Oregon is out of Vegas except for one scenario: Washington losing 3 times. If that happened, the Civil War could happen twice in 6 days. Other than that, it doesn’t even matter if UW finds a second loss, as Oregon won’t jump them.
UCLA:
Only goes to Vegas with some cataclysmic type of upsets of the top teams.
The following scenario is what I think is most realistic in a world where Oregon State wins out:
Washington 8-1
Oregon State 7-2
Oregon 7-2
Arizona 7-2
USC 6-3
Utah 5-4
UCLA 5-4
The three way tie is resolved with the following tiebreakers:
1. Head-to-head (Not applicable as Oregon/AZ do not play)
2. Win percentage against all common conference opponents (must be common among all teams involved in the tie)
Oregon State – 4-1 (W Utah, CU, Stan, Wash, L WSU)
Oregon – 4-1 (W Utah, CU, Stan, WSU, L Wash)
Arizona – 4-1 (W Utah, CU, Stan, WSU, L Wash)
Teams remain tied at 80%
3. Record against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings
Oregon State beat #1 Washington, Oregon and Arizona.
Beavs win tiebreaker and advance to Vegas to play Washington.
There’s plenty of other specific ways this could play out, but the bottom line is Oregon State in large part still controls their destiny to Vegas. Again, there’s a 99% chance this doesn’t happen. But it’s fun to dream while we can and try and find a silver lining that there’s still something to play for, even when it feels like the season ended in Tucson…
*Typo: “Oregon State beat #1 Washington, Oregon and Arizona lost.”*
rewatched the Arizona game – such a horrendous call at the end of the half – you are tied. Arizona is getting the second half kick-off. You can put points on the board after a turnover. No way you do a fake in that situation. It wasn’t even like the Beavs had a blocking advantage on that side – it was four on four.
I’m sure everyone will downvote this to oblivion but I think I’m deserving of an apology right about now, as my early season concerns with our defensive performances against SJSU and SDSU seemed to grow into obvious bigger issues when we faced actual competition. People on this board were so convinced that losing Speights, Austin, Grant, et al, wouldn’t have a huge impact on this team. Obviously, there’s the coaching screw up with the fake, clock management, and other issues, but they were all a combination of what has been plaguing this team this year. The reality is that we’re almost unbeatable at home, but complete liabilities on the road right now. Even at home, though, our tackling basics have been terrible. That’s not what wins you conference titles and, and as Smith likes to put it lets you “play in meaningful games” at the end of the year. This is likely an 8-4 regular season team, and, in the future, our ceiling is likely 10-2.
A loss like this is honestly somewhat program defining given the context. No more chance of a special year really, we’re going to be off the medias radar for good now. I’d hoped that if we were going to get hopes up to be let down, that at least the let down would be against a UW or UO type team during a college gameday hosting. I think a loss like this will cause us to have to take a step back and realize that, as OSU fans, our ceiling is hoping for something like the Sun Bowl, LA Bowl, or Las Vegas bowl year in and year out. With NIL and us being out a conference, the separation between us and other programs will only get worse.
All I can say is that I am not looking forward to our D getting gashed by a hungry for revenge Nix and Irving at Autzen on likely the last time we play the Ducks. Enjoy this season while it lasts, because it’s probably the best we’re going to get for a while unfortunately. I guess the good news is that we should theoretically be the best G5 school if recruiting somewhat maintains, possibly giving us a smoother path to a NY6 berth year in and out? I’m just conflicted right now.
There is, of course, the distant possibility of us figuring our stuff out and winning out to make the conference title, likely rematching Washington, which if happens I will eat crow, but every team now has the blueprint to beat us, and there are no for sure gimmes left on the schedule.
I’ll say you’re conflicted. You say we’re an 8-4 team and in the future we’re likely 10-2. But then you say this season is the best we’re going to get for a while. Sometimes I think you’re a bot.
Time to pull the plug
It likely is the best we’ll get. Even if we win the MW in the future, their bowl tie in for the conference winner assuming they don’t get the G5 NY6/playoff berth is the Jimmy Kimmel Bowl, so there’s that…
You seem fixated on the “apology” thing, but I’ll not downvote you on the mention of defense. I’ve been surprised at the lack of mention of the poor tackling last Saturday. Really disappointed in Bray’s D, which had looked so good earlier and which, it was said, emphasized tackling over the two weeks of preparation for this fiasco.
You’re right. You do deserve an apology.
We’re sorry your dad didn’t pull out sooner
LOL^^^^^^^^^^
wow. the fact that you are posting saying your deserving of an apology tells us everything we need to know about you LOL. are you really that narcissistic?
Fuck off.
This team obviously has a higher ceiling than their coaches have led them to.
They’re undefeated, except for coaching decisions, and you were 100% wrong.
On the flip side, they’re a lot better than I thought, minus tackling on first contact.
Your poor football acumen based on feelings still gets no respect, because it’s just 100% wrong.
Angry was saying the ceiling was limited by Smith’s gambling tendencies, but the ceiling was still the ceiling.
You were saying you didn’t feel like they could beat teams… and that’s it.
You weren’t correct. Others were.
Stuff it.
How was I wrong? True talent can win games in the absence of good coaching (See: pretty much every Lincoln Riley coached team ever), or teams like Oregon at Texas Tech this season, and many other examples where very talented teams pull wins out of nowhere at the last minute despite having a very poorly coached game. This OSU team doesn’t have that luxury, they have some very talented people (Martinez, O-Line, DJ on ocassion) but they aren’t a talented enough team to coast by on just talent, so they have to make up for it with good coaching, which they have the past few years, but when the coaching just isn’t there in a conference game, especially on the road, they usually aren’t able make up for it. This team has a higher ceiling than the coaches have led them to? Really? You think this secondary could stop the offense of Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama, etc? Because those are the only kinds of teams left in front of us with our ranking last week.
If true talent could win games in absence of good coaching, we would have beaten UA easily.
Your football acumen has zero depth.
Literally how? The only team with a lower talent composite in the PAC 12 than us in Wazzu. Whether you like it or not, statistically speaking, Arizona and every other team in the PAC besides Wazzu is more talented than us. But, as we know, talent isn’t everything, hence why we’ve been successful these past few years, by our players being coached well enough to perform above their talent expectations. But talent is also why, despite atrocious coaching all year, USC is able to find ways to win when they shouldn’t. Sometimes, you need the talent to take control of the game. We, generally, don’t have the ability to do that.
See for yourself: https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/?Conference=Pac-12
Your takes are pure emotion.
Also, why have we been straying away from our run-heavy wheelhouse so much? There are times and places for it with DJ, but I have not been a fan of how often we’ve passed on 1st downs.
Hello?
Have you not been reading any comments on this site in this very year?
I won’t blame you for not reading it for the last 15 years, when the exact same thing is said, for different reasons.
Yes, play-action is much more effective with a run-first team, especially when they have one of the top three O-lines in the nation. Why they don’t do it is because OC’s forget this is college football, and they play strategery, instead of college football.
It is maddening.
Our best hope now is likely for UW to win out and/or go to the CFP with one loss, as that would bump up all of the winning record teams in the PAC a bowl tier.
For monetary purposes, this is true.
This team can still beat anyone they face, given proper direction. And UW looks like they’re starting to fall apart. The bye came at a good time for them.
Then again, coaches do strange things during the bye week.
“Then again, coaches do strange things during the bye week”
Like practice ill-advised fake field goals?
Haha, quote from CAL’s AD on the new ACC football schedule that was just reached:
“We play all of the existing ACC schools three times in the next seven years, and we have fans who are really excited about trips to Boston or Syracuse, North Carolina, and Florida.”
Sure ya do. They’re excited for flying 12 hours to watch the Cal Bears play football? You have 5 fans that told you that because they have family in those locations.
You mean the Cal team that’s roughly 2 miles from the Pacific Ocean but will now play in the Atlantic Coast Conference? That Cal team?
What with the schedule in place with 2024 written all over it, how could anyone say there is ‘no notice.’
They’re excited about having to go through Charlotte Douglas?
Eww.
For some good news in other Beavs sports, the men’s soccer team is in the drivers seat to win another regular season Pac 12 title outright. They have one conference game remaining, and if they win or draw they will likely win the title outright. UCLA is right behind us, however, and if they win their last game by a large margin, could share the title with us or win it outright.
UCLA has three conference games remaining to OSU’s one, they will most likely take back first place….you may want to keep on that grad “research”.
This feels like a fake commitment.
Somebody made a fake Coach Doctor twitter account a few months back, and now this guy is thanking that account in his commitment tweet. Plus nobody has retweeted it.
Pretty bizarre that someone would go through that much effort, but maybe that’s how they think they’ll get noticed by other teams?
https://twitter.com/morgandutton4/status/1718898345434055111?t=DyhK6Bz-ZoskOO5PwB8qSw&s=19
I’m all sorts of confused.
There’s a Morgan Dutton out there… maybe?
https://www.hudl.com/profile/7694253/Morgan-Dutton
That’s a great tape for a CB who can run the fly sweep and be a ST ace. But it says JV?
And the measurables are outstanding?
What am I looking at?
I was able to confirm it’s a fake Coach Doctor account. I don’t know if Morgan Dutton is legit or not, but i’m leaning towards not, because he seems to be part of the faking that is going on rather than a naive kid getting tricked
This feels like the 2012 season.
Interesting watching the Lions just decide to run the ball no matter what and how it eventually wears out Raiders front 7.
I don’t think JS of BL are interested in a winning game plan as much as having big passing numbers.
When you decide to avoid running against teams even if they stack the box, it dictates a different game than the strengths of the team as a whole.
The sample size of how productive this offense can be even without passing was over an 8 game stretch last year, yet they determine to avoid playing to that strength.
And the lessons learned from mistakes have a short shelf life with JS/BL. We may skip a week or 2 before we see something worse than that fake fg but it will surely come.
Has there been a road game this season where there wasn’t a mystify play-call on special teams?
UA and Cal for sure, WSU pulled a fake punt on us but I think JS tried another poor onside kick/fake punt in there somewhere too, SJSU maybe not?
Is this just how JS entertains himself for road games and assumes we can’t win without some special teams trickery? Trust your prep and trust your team for goodness sakes.
It’s infuriating because most of the captains are offensive linemen. Talk about a way to potentially lose a locker room. No lineman gets excited about pass protection.
http://amp.awfulannouncing.com/college-football/brian-custer-oregon-state-ducks-beavers.html
https://awfulannouncing.com/college-football/brian-custer-oregon-state-ducks-beavers.html
Great find Jack….
I just removed the “amp.”, because it led me to a static page.
It’s 4 days since the fake fg and I still can’t get over how insane that call was and the rationale for it from JS.
There were only 7 possessions in the first half. How do you do you not take the points? UA was obviously trying to force OSU to slow walk down the field and weren’t going to give up chunk plays as their main strategy, which means the game will shorten and possessions would be critical.
Coaching is an art form of understanding what you see and adjusting to it, in order to help your team win the game. JS simply says “hyper-aggressive, bad play call…” and hopes it will go away. On the contrary, he has been exposed as a strategic lunatic in critical situations by such an idiotic attempt. It is a good thing the entire college landscape doesn’t want to talk about OSU Beavers, otherwise he should be roasted worse than Cristobal after the fumble that cost them a game. At least Cristobal was trying to run the clock and not passing in that situation. JS was busy running a trick play with a kicker and no time on the clock rather than kicking chip shot fg! Completely insane to consider the call, let alone explain it as “chomping at the bit to get that ply called…”! Especially after they already messed it up the prior possession. Save for the next game you want to lose, but because there is no one on the sidelines with any sense of proportion, let’s go for it this time!
I’m not a football expert and a lot of us aren’t, but I’ll not be bluffed on this one as simply “ hyper-aggressive, bad call…” being a sufficient excuse for pretty much flushing the season.
Perhaps it becomes a rallying point for the team to be additionally focused for the final 4 games but I doubt it matter’s actually. I’d say there is some fallout for some of the upperclassman as they watched film of that game. This was their shot and an all time bone headed coach play call sunk it and them. I don’t blame Sappington, or the 2 linemen trying to block 3-4 linebackers/dbs…it is squarely on Cookus and JS for fooling themselves for 2 weeks of practice that that play could work. Who is in JS ear telling him to play conservative and gets points with this team it will be successful. JS needs to study John Madden or something. Get points, slow the game down and eventually the offensive line can win you the game. But if you don’t stay dedicated to the run throughout the game, your opponent is fresh enough in the 4th to stuff a couple of plays and force a 3 and out rather than wilt in the face of a menacing oline ready to end the game.
DJ should be a complement to the running game, not eliminate the running game. BL is Jekyll and Hyde playcaller. In this offense, DJ sees how the defense presents and checks out of a run into a pass. And I think DJ is probably early in his understanding so that he is pretty much by the book on the audibles and can’t identify a look that presents as a run stop but becomes a pass blitz etc. I wonder if UA was simply baiting DJ into audibles all night but his audibles weren’t as effective as the original play call may have been.
2 weeks of practice for that… bad bye week for sure.
Smith is great except for risk management. I said in 2019 he should be forced to go to some type of basic coaching/math/probability school. Stand by that. It’s going to hold him back next year when he moves to a bigger program.
I would be worried about him leaving if didn’t do all the dumb shit at dumb times. Fake field goal, random onside kick, ect. You think no one is paying attention? It’s why his name hasn’t come up for openings since the onside against Cal. No one wants a risk taker.
Oregon State over reacts to coaches leaving and creates huge buy-outs. Panic that USC wanted MR. Tinkle talked to Stanford. Craig Robinson. Rushed into GA. Pat Casey only one who deserved the angst.
I think the fake is his way of saying, “Do all you other schools really want me as your head coach?”
I believe his risk/reward is askew. The milk-the-clock hand gestures with his nipples showed me he is very aware of his audience and knows very well what he is doing….it gets attention, it gets clicks. His reward for such a risky play is to get himself and his team on sports center….the risk is the play dies and nobody talks about it (although a select few, us and close observers will), which is what is going on.
Inadvertently he is disrespecting the program and fan base. He needs to ask himself….wouldn’t we/I get just as many accolades by taking OSU to a respectful bowl game, better record? He can’t and he doesn’t have the patience to eek out wins, they are boring to him — it’s a blind spot for him for sure, he couldn’t hold himself back, even with the odds extremely stacked against him….absolutely mind boggling to us, but perfectly “sane” call for him. Have your kicker run 25 yards right into the teeth of the defense….seriously?!?!?
Good coach….just not a great one, the great ones do all things you and others mention, to put their players in the best possible position to win, JS does not.
One of these worst planned, timed, and called fakes I have EVER scene giving the context of the situation, game, season, etc. I would say execution was poor too but I actually thought the players actually executed relatively well I suppose….still got like 15 yards.
It was idiotic, and it should stick with him just like meathead Cristobal’s meathead decisions. When people talk about them this is what they should talk about. Pretty good coach, BUT…
I tuned out after that stupid fucking call. I Hoped the Beavs would win, didn’t expect it given the coaching stupidity, and wasn’t going to commit any more time to the game.
Props to Sappington for just closing his eyes and running the gauntlet.
At least that was impressive.
Yes, re: Smith’s poor time management as well, in addition to not using timeouts at the end of the half and forcing the FG situation, at the end of the UCLA game, we could have killed the clock by running it out, but they called multiple passing plays for DJ which all went incomplete, and it resulted in UCLA getting the ball back when they never should have even had another possession. Ultimately it didn’t cost us, but it very well could have came back to bite.
under JS the Beavs are 1-4 after a bye.
Maybe at the UW game i’ll have a sign for “Oregon Problem Gabler’s Hotline” and phone #…should be indirect enough to avoid be taken away?
https://www.opgr.org/
*gamblers
And one for problem cell phone typers…
https://youtu.be/rS68L_kxP4I
Lindgren talks pre-Colorado, listen at about 2:05 and hear what I think is mistaken strategy:
“…you got a lot of calls on the sheet that you want to get to….”
Good to have “a lot of calls on the sheet”, bad to go in wanting to get to (all of) them.
Please, play to the situation…..even if that means not calling some of those you want in favor of what works!
Agree and this is becoming a major red flag for the success or predictable failures of this staff. Great coaching adjusts and capitalizes on fluid strategic situations. Instead we get a staff admitting they plan on forcing preconceived plays into the wrong game situations just because they were champing at the bit to run it…not good long term
Has anybody ever considered printing an AB thread, especially this one, and mailing it in the post to JS? Seems
Fuck winning, we’ve got plays we need to get to!!!!
This staff treats certain calls like they’re the goal instead of the means to a goal…weird.
This staff treats certain calls like they’re the goal instead of the means to a goal…weird.
Also, are they playing down to (and coaching below) competition?
The onside call was unbelievably dumb. And over the years I’ve often defended the aggression, because I felt like there were fair reasons for it (awful defense, unreliable kicker, a need to take some shots to hang with a better team).
None of those remotely applied here. Just terrible. We had the talent edge and should have strangled them with it.
Side note: Sappington has quietly been the best kicker we’ve had in a really really long time. 36/36 XP, 9/10 FG. And the one FG miss was between 40 and 50 yds. No excuse for not putting automatic points on the board. And especially not in a game flow situation like that.
Though, our punting this year has been absolutely atrocious. So maybe I’m a little more okay with midfield aggression in the right conditions.
But as egregious and stupid as the call was, this loss was on Lindgren. It’s so, so frustrating watching our elite run game languish as we don’t even attempt to run when they load the box. All they have to do is move one defender up and we will happily negate our one massive advantage (against everyone) and put the game on the back of our shaky QB and tiny receivers.
We could have run the ball all over UA and WSU. We just gave up when we didn’t get the right look. And surprise surprise…they didn’t give us the right look. It’s this cowardly thing where we’d rather pit our weakness against there’s (pass when they’re playing up) rather than strength on strength and trust our elite run game to run guys over. Like they do, every time they get a chance.
Against a great D, I could see that approach. Beating UA and WSU was a simple formula though and we flushed those wins for absolutely no reason. Lindgren is shoving a square peg in a round hole all day long. Maddening.
Also- I really like Gould and I LOVE Bolden. But they are tiny, and they’re a pretty poor fit with DJ. Tiny guys have much smaller catch windows and require more accuracy. Accuracy is DJ’s worst trait. DJ could really use some big guys that can go get his errant throws.
Big guys are on the squad. Just must not be part of those plays Lindgren wants to use!
From the last thread:
“Munyagi, Noga, Valsin all are tall enough to expand the target area and all have have had good moments in the minimal minutes they’ve been given.”
However, I’m not so sure “accuracy is DJ’s worst trait”, I think the inability to see all receivers and make quick decisions may be worse.
Beavs #16 in first CFP poll.
3rd 2 loss team behind LSU and Notre Dame, ahead of Tenn, Utah, UCLA, USC, Kansas, OkSt, KSU.
Has anybody ever considered printing an AB thread, especially this one, and mailing it in the post to JS?
Just tweet him (or X him?) and tell him to read AB if he wants to know what real fans think about his decisions. I doubt he cares.
Happy Halloween you goofs, as if on cue, ‘the prince of nightmares and suffering,’ aged 4, just collected some candy/loot.
Be safe out there
My West here we come.
Things that happened today:
1. BIG12 to announce schedule tomorrow
2. Kirk Schultz putting out a letter saying the AD budget will be cut
3. Talking about the Apple cup being played next year in Seattle.
All of this screams get ready here we come Mt. West
Not for 2 years.
“Scheduling Alliance” = glorified Mt West
Big 12 = glorified Mt West
You look at who’s left, and it’s hardly a P4 football conference. Solid teams but no CFP contenders.
K State was arguably the best team in the Big 12 last year and they got ran over by Alabama.
Didn’t a G5 AAC team recently beat a b1g Heisman winner and his spoiled friends ?
Pac2 can’t come off as if we have it made right now. Doesn’t help our court case decision if we make it sound like we haven’t been impacted monetarily and just claim it will be business as usual.
In other words, buckle up. We’re ready to drag this shit out
I don’t see how “we have it made” has anything to do with the court case. The case is about who is in charge of the conference. Wazzu and OSU are the only 2 that are not leaving so that means they should get control. That’s all that matters. Claiming poverty does not change the facts of the case.
This assumes the case doesn’t expand. There is also the politics, both are state institutions that could find funding through legislation.
None of us really know. You find the right text messages/convince the right people in Salem/Olympia and who knows.
I still think it’s unlikely that OSU/WSU join the current full MWC, at least not for 2 years.
It’s tough to say we have experienced damages if we’re operating as if nothing has changed.
I’m pretty sure Barnes already told the athletic dept to buckle up because trimming the budget was going to happen. That happened before the lawsuit was even filed.
Saw a report that Tyrice Ivy is done for the year.
There’s a possibility he could come back for the bowl game, so it doesn’t sound like a knee injury.
Secondary has seen a lot of injuries this season. Definitely the most impacted with Skyler Thomas, noble Thomas, Cooper, Ivy plus Julian still not back fully healthy. That’s a lot of impactful players not on the field each game
Julian is out for the season. I saw him on campus yesterday walking with a brace coming from Valley Football Center. Ivy is out for the season too.
Hope Julian takes advantage of his scholarship and gets his degree. Unfortunately, seems likely his playing days are over?
This CU game, or rather the OSU coaching staff, has me more concerned than necessary. They should be able to run on them (use all 3 backs) and get to the QB enough to offset some of the plays he’ll make. But, this staff appears to coach down to competition.
Provide Martinez the big game he’s capable of, let Fen and Newell help tire the D.
Also, will DJU’s tendency to throw high be exacerbated at elevation?
Yes
The 9 biggest November games that will alter the College Football Playoff race:
“No. 19 Oregon State at No. 7 Oregon, Nov. 24 (8:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
It’s possible that this is the last battle between the two in-state rivals, though both sides seem open to finding a way to continue the series with Oregon headed to the Big Ten and Oregon State still searching for a new home. While California, USC and Arizona State shouldn’t stop the Ducks, the Beavers just might: OSU can be punishing at the point of attack and is vey capable of standing up against one of the most physical teams in the FBS. The Beavers have won two of three in the rivalry but haven’t taken a game in Autzen Stadium since a memorable overtime win in 2007.”
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2023/11/01/college-football-biggest-games-november-schedule-playoff-impact/71383884007/
“Oregon State emphasis on downfield passing game is a smashing statistical success”
“There has been some give from Oregon State’s running game this season. The Beavers have run the ball on 54.8% of their 510 plays this season. That’s down from the past two seasons, when OSU ran it 62% in 2022, and 60% in 2021.
The benefits are significant, however. Oregon State is averaging 36.4 points a game and 6.9 yards per play. If those numbers hold through the end of the season, they will become school records….”
https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2023/11/oregon-state-emphasis-on-downfield-passing-game-is-a-smashing-statistical-success.html
Only 54.8%? With three very capable backs?
If we just bludgeoned defenses to death the ppg would be well over 40.
Martinez @ 6.4 YPC with 3 TDs, Fen @ 5.6 YPC with 4 TDs. DJU leads with 5 rushing TDs.
Last year each finished with 7, Colletto 6, BG 5, & Griffin 4.
I’m wondering if it has to do with backup Olinemen? It may be a considerable drop off once the lower half of the 2 deeps get in. We see a few guys rotate in but maybe they are concerned about beat the olineman up too much.
Is there really anything to indicate that olinemen are more likely to be beat up when run blocking than when protecting the passer?
We hear many comments from them that they like run blocking best.
Run blocking means you get to initiate the contact and direct its force.
Pass blocking means you have to sit back on your haunches and be ready to react to what someone else is doing.
exactly
I can understand if there are issues with zone blocking. It takes a lot of discipline and time to understand such a scheme. But we’re at a position now where the OLine can overpower most of its opponents just with simple man blocking.
Most of the TFLs against Utah came when they blew up the zone schemes.
Scoreboard, baby, is the only smashing statistical success. Followed by tackling.
Yup, but “there’s a lot of calls in the playsheet you want to get to.”
At this point last year OSU was 6-2 with losses to USC and Utah.
Increased offensive productivity appears to be offset by Smith’s gambling and a reduction in the quality of defensive play, which includes both a youthful secondary and injuries.
If the team had shown up for the first half at WSU and played UA smart, they could reasonably be undefeated or at least 7-1. The flat start @ WSU was pretty embarrassing. The D wasn’t even getting set at first. @ UA had two weeks of rest/prep….
All of which points to a lack of awareness from this staff regarding the capabilities and high ceiling for this team. The staff has essentially mailed in 2 games, and I’d come close to arguing that they did it when the pressure was the heaviest at each point. I wonder if there is a hesitancy to be too successful at OSU. Is there a Riley effect to how they are coaching and creating their own win cap to avoid too high of expectations again?
The predictable Riley pattern and now JS pattern is to expect a nice bounce back win against Colorado, followed by a nice dominant win at home vs Stanford, a close upset of UW, and then a tragic beatdown at the hands of the Ducks, to lead into a better bowl matchup which could be either a nice win or an embarrassing finish to the season. So 9 or 10 wins and accolades from local sportswriters but another season of underperforming when we all see what could have been.
I can hear them now : JS has a win cap of 10 then and we should be ecstatic with that…stop complaining and reminding us of his gambling tendencies
Loved your comment in the last thread that JS may be trying too hard to emulate Chris Peterson’s play calling, but without the same situational awareness. I suspect that is spot on and i hadn’t considered that.
I wanted Smith in the candidate pool because he had experience with Erickson and Peterson. But he appears to lack Peterson’s awareness and self control, and doesn’t consistently execute 4th down or “trick” plays with the same discipline Peterson’s teams did, at least to my memory.
I expect the Beavs to be ill-prepared for CU’s passing attack and the altitude. The Buffs will score on us when they have the ball. We shouldn’t have any trouble scoring on them with our run game. So if we control ToP, don’t turn the ball over, and don’t piss away scoring opportunities, then we should win. I’m just not confident we’ll do those things.
Buffs are the most penalized team in cfb. By alot. I imagine they’ll fuck it up on their own. Beavs just need to play to their strengths and this should be a W
Sanders is pumping up his O-line emphasizing aggression and physicality. I wouldn’t be surprised to see even more penalties from that group this week, false starts and holding. Here’s the quote:
“…I had a private, personal meeting with the whole offensive line, and the meeting was phenomenal,” Sanders added. “I have the utmost thought-process that those guys are going to step it up tremendously, and you’re going to see a more cohesive, more aggressive, more physical, more prepared group than ever before this weekend. I really do believe that.”
“I had a private, personal meeting with the whole offensive line… ”
i.e. “You’ve made this personal. Start protecting my son or i will make you want to quit.”
Tbf, they don’t have a high bar to cross.
Are you factoring in the refs in this game? They will probably call only egregious holds.
I think this could be an emotional hangover game given how upset the players were after last Saturday.
Beavers SHOULD win, but i could see a collapse, especially if secondary is injury limited.
This is a definitive game for Sanders. He really, really, really wants to win it. I don’t think he has any regard for Oregon State. The Beav players are up to the challenge and should win; the coaching, OTOH . . .
It would be the definitive nail in the coffin for OSU football. The media would parade over CU’s victory.
No doubt, he has the “utmost thought process”…
It would be old school OSU Beavers football to choke this game away too and become irrelevant in the last year of the PAC..
I’m just praying this isn’t a Wazzu game where we don’t show up ready to defend the pass and get too far behind before we pull our heads out.
Regarding Lindgren’s quote from the video about “lots of calls to get in…” and Smith’s “chomping at the bit to call that play…”:
JS has been mentioned many times his desire to be balanced on offense, Lindgren even said several times that they are trying to keep the opponent off balance by maintaining balance between pass and run.
I wonder if the “balanced offense” is the over-riding philosophical principle or a data driven analytics approach for the offense. It strikes me that this approach allows for easy explanations for failure if there isn’t “balance”, or you are resting in a data/analytics approach that should be predictive over long periods of time to establish it as the marker for performance.
It would then explain last years inability or unwillingness to adjust the offense to a run heavy approach until BG’s skillset forced them into that box, which was still fairly successful. Fast forward to this year, and we have reverted back to “balance” as the mantra with no regard to the team’s overall strength as a run heavy attack. DJ has added skill that BG didn’t offer last year, but we are seeing the predictable outcome of not simply emphasizing DJ, but simultaneously de-emphasizing Martinez and company. If the stated goal is to win, but the over-riding philosophy on offense isn’t to seek the greatest adv antage in order to win, but rather default to “balance”, then it is a major flaw in the staff’s strategic approach to each game, and in game adjustments. I would surmise that this is where the problem arises, in game adjustments mean real time evaluation and decision making with real time consequences for errors. Perhaps it has been decided among the staff brain trust that they recognize some internal shortcomings around in game adjustments so they script everything into play sheets and sequential play calling that evens out the “balance” over the course of the game. In the end, according to the data, they should be ok 60% of the time and it won’t reveal any “warts” other than “we just weren’t balanced enough”.
What if Smith and Lindgren were supremely confident in their schemes and their offensive play-calling was capable of in game adjustments? Would we see more sequences like 19 straight runs where the opponent knew what was coming but they had no way of stopping it? Even this point brings to mind the baffling pass calls on a possession where we are needing to run clock and force the opponent to take timeouts etc. Lindgren is “allowed” to call a pass play as a way of “keeping them off balance”. WHY? Run the ball anyway. Game situation and strategy dictates a run rather than play calling balance and yardage balance.
In this case, “figures sure do lie, and liars sure do figure” feels about right. I’m not calling the staff liars, but the concept is deceitful in it presents a desired end result for pass/run play calls, and a desired equality of outcome for yardage totals for both run and pass, which is often close for the Beavs.
I’d say the goal from JS/BL would be: 250 yards passing and 250 yards rushing is a great game as far as play-calling goes/on 24 pass attempts and 28 rush attempts. This would be the perfect gameplan as it sounds form their interviews. But it is void of context and game situations, which I’m not really certain they consider as a key detail. From the interviews Ive heard over the years, JS has more concern about “balance” than strategic application of the play-calling. The outlier was last year’s Civil War, which is why it stands out so much and why it was such a joy to watch. Once JS/BL were forced out of their comfortable offensive approach bubble, they were confronted with the need to actually call a game according to present circumstances, and were limited in how they could attack it. This situation forced them into relying on the o-line and running backs way more than they prefer to over the course of the any game, but it proved a winning strategy. Fast forward to this year, we all hoped that the lessons form the Civil War would affect the game by game approach but it hasn’t. JS/BL have settled back into the comfort zone of “balance” and this is why we are frustrated after UA. Any sense of real time adjustments rather than “balance” would have been enough of a shift to control the game but they can’t do it without being forced to by circumstances beyond their control. As long as DJ is healthy, they will maintain the “balance” approach and we will likely lose 2 more games because of it. The “balance” approach won’t win big games or beat well coached teams who have a staff/roster that can make real time adjustments.
Leach and Chip at their best ran the same play over and over until the defense figured out how to stop it, then they ran a variation off of that to further test the defense. BL admits he is prepared to just go away form successful plays to “keep the defense honest” as if they are on to his most successful plays and he doesn’t want to call those plays too often because the defense will stop them. It is a backwards way of thinking when you claim to be the aggressor. This is the conflict of JS, he wants to be hyper-aggressive on completely wrong situations, but play-calling aggressively on offense with his best units on the field tends to be missing. If BL were truly aggressive as a play-caller, he would identify which run plays Martinez gashes defense early, call it several times, go back to it later, run play action off of the same play, go back to it again until you are convinced the defense can actually stop it, not just that the defense can identify the play is coming at them…
I’m not a mind reader and I don’t claim to fully understand JS/BL approaches to offense and what their criteria are for game planning, but this is my attempt to explain what I am seeing based on what they have been saying and I think it may fit pretty good as a plausible explanation.
Nothing wrong with the occasional fullback blast or rugby scrum on first or second down.
I mean… what’s wrong with beating the snot out of people, every now and then?
you’re not wrong.
this is highly plausible.
It’s almost criminal, in a football sense, that Martinez is not getting 20+ touches a game. The passing game will open up even more as he is given more opportunities. I hope the staff is taking a hard look at themselves because overall, they got whupped as bad saturday as the 4th quarter defense did.
Which play call is worse, Cristobal not taking a knee? Or Smith faking a fg from the 30 with a kicker run call?
Definitely Cristobal. That was a decision to not guarantee the win at the end of the game. JS had a whole other half to make up for his stupidity. He just didn’t.
Definitely Cristobal.
But JS made the same dumbfuck decision that I shit all over Lanning for making. So he’s getting shit all over too. Fucking retarded.
It is JS all day long, regardless of outcome. The difference is like playing the lottery compared to real estate as a investment strategy. Both have risk, but the expected return is exponential higher investing in real estate than playing the lottery. The problem with JS is in the moment he thought he was investing in real estate versus playing the lottery because it worked in practice.
Beavs should score 42+
There’s Cougin’ it.
Then there’s the Lanning-Smith effect — untimely over-aggressive, and unnecessary playing calling that results in a slow, agonizing and demoralizing close loss.
Is that the Lanning and Smith that are a combined 13-3 this season? Just checking.
Yes, the same two that could easily be undefeated if not for the “Lanning-Smith Effect”.
I thought it was kinda funny that both coaches used the same phrase “we got the look we wanted” to explain going for it.
It’s really strange that they got the look they wanted but JS admitted it was a bad call. Apparently 16 yds to go with 3 seconds left in the half wasn’t considered in “the look they wanted”.
We got the look we wanted, if we had been 5 yards out.
But we were 20 yards out, so that look was doomed to fail.
It would have been better as a 2 pt conversion play, and it would have also been better had we not already shown that look to them a little earlier in the game.
I don’t know if it angers me more that he used the play at a wholly inappropriate time, or that it would have been a great attempt from about the 30, on 4th and 9, in the 2nd quarter of the CW.
Now it’s just wasted.
Good point.
FFS, if he had taken the 3 points in the first half and the game played out similarly in the second half he could have very well had his chance in the 4th quarter.
“Colorado needs two wins to become bowl eligible.
Buffs are 131st in rushing and 125th in scoring defense.
But they’re also No. 6 nationally in passing production.
Beavers are 3-2 in Pac-12 play but 6 combined points from being undefeated.
OSU is 29th in rushing and 17th in scoring offense with 36.4 ppg”
https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/ncaa-football-picks/colorado-vs-oregon-state-football-game-score-prediction
Literally how? The only team with a lower talent composite in the PAC 12 than us in Wazzu. Whether you like it or not, statistically speaking, Arizona and every other team in the PAC besides Wazzu is more talented than us. But, as we know, talent isn’t everything, hence why we’ve been successful these past few years, by our players being coached well enough to perform above their talent expectations. But talent is also why, despite atrocious coaching all year, USC is able to find ways to win when they shouldn’t. Sometimes, you need the talent to take control of the game. We, generally, don’t have the ability to do that.
See for yourself: https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/?Conference=Pac-12
Your takes are pure emotion.
Sorry, meant to be a reply to Jack further up the thread.
There is an element of truth to this, but your metric is garbage. Recruiting rankings are a very, VERY loose measure of raw talent. Do you honestly believe we’re 11/12 in actual player talent in the conf? I 100% disagree with that.
Are we top tier? Probably not- I’d guess we’re middle of the pack- upper middle.
Bottom line is our losses this year have not been about talent. Defense HAS had a talent deficit- but that’s been about depth rather than starter quality. Offensive issues have almost nothing to do with the players though. It’s been playcalling and misusing the talent.
And then ST has been sloppy and unprepared. We’re not blowing special teams plays on lack of athleticism.
Alex is 100% correct.
The reason USC pulls wins out the their backsides when they should lose isn’t based on talent and I’d say it is more often based on a handful of favorable calls that go their way intentionally or not.
Recruiting rankings are about as subjective as anything can be once you get beyond the 20 or so truly dominant 5* guys.
It is a closed loop that has been created by ESPN et al. Which is easily proven when Chiles gets bumped down once he commits to OSU. If OSU isn’t viewed as belonging, their recruiting ranking won’t reflect an above average class, which continues the paradigm of poor recruiting and lesser roster talent, until there is a true breakthrough in spite of the “lack of talent” that can’t be denied. This was the year for such a breakthrough, or perhaps next year when the secondary is fully healthy and Chiles is at the helm…But this year was when none of the SEC teams had great qb play and the opportunity was/is there.
I mean, the fact that USC have a Heisman winning QB definitely doesn’t hurt when the defense and coaching aren’t helping. They likely lose multiple more games without Williams putting the team on his back (look at our game versus them last year). Look at the teams that have won national titles and consistent P5 conference titles in the last decade or so. Really all of them have had multiple 1st and 2nd round NFL draft picks starting on both sides of the ball. Whether you like it or not, having players who will be playing on Sundays soon and not guys who will be selling insurance in a few months or years is important.
Coaching can only make up for so much. I feel that, in the current state of college football, I feel as though our ceiling is 9-10 wins, with the kind of talent we bring in.
“Whether you like it or not, having players who will be playing on Sundays soon and not guys who will be selling insurance in a few months or years is important.”
Again, some truth to this (talent matters) but two major criticisms:
1) again, high school recruiting rankings are pretty terrible. The correlation between those rankings and nfl potential is very, very spurious.
2) there absolutely are phenomenal college players with no nfl future. All-Americans even. It’s a different game and some talent just doesn’t transfer. Think Kellen Moore, or Yvenson Bernard.
Mike Hass, the best wr in college football for at least a year.
Vernon Adams.
Also you’re telling me with a straight face that Jermar Jefferson and Damien Martinez were both 3 stars?
Wtf does high school have to do with college football?.
How many of these kids peaked there? How many were overlooked? I suppose EWU must have had an immense rating, when Bourne and Kupp were playing there, because talent.
This is college football. You put together a team that can lean on other teams, and you give yourself an opportunity to exploit the numerous weaknesses that exist on every dam team.
Just like those that peak in college and bust, others step forward, because they developed late in adolescence, which ends at about 23.
But you would know things like this if you had the patience to actually see past one highly faulty data point.
tldr: I’m not going to accept a source with a 45% variance.
Bourne and Kupp are the exception. Not the reality. The reality is the top NFL talent generally comes from powerhouse SEC programs like Georgia or Bama, LSU and Ohio State, Michigan, Texas, and other big time schools.
There’s a reason even our best players generally get drafted in the late 6th or 7th round, if they get drafted at all, and rarely sniff an active roster spot. We’ve had 2 players selected in the opening 2 rounds of the draft in the last 10+ years, and one of them, Musgrave, was drafted almost entirely off of measurables rather than on the field accomplishments.
You’re still conflating variant leagues and skill levels.
The exceptions total about half the talent that ends up in the NFL. That’s a horrendous hit rate for any data set which wants to claim accuracy.
Again, you need to look at this through the lens of college football, not one biased toward a single narrow industry sells as its sales pitch, despite the numbers being open sores over half the body.
Even if there are flaws in recruiting rankings, the teams at the top of those rankings for each draft class are generally also the teams that end up in the top 10-20. It’s just a numbers game. Yes, many 4 and 5 stars don’t pan out. Many 3 stars also play above their initial expectation. But if you load up on 4s and 5s, just based on probabilities you are far likelier to end up with a successful program. The disappointments can be easily kicked to the curb and then it’s next man up.
Well, it’s nice to watch eaTme winning it all this year with Jimbo at the helm.
Throwing some 20 schools in a pile and saying, “One of these schools will win it all this year, because our ratings are the best way to figure out something pretty much unrelated,” is a really funny way to go about life.
You give me 20 lottery tickets with numbers of my choice, and I’ll likely have one with the correct powerball number. That’s what “recruiting rankings” are.
I also need someone to show me how OSU isn’t in the top three or four in “composite talent” for this year.
I’m assuming that term means having the most complete group of talent, as its name suggests. Only UO and UW can claim to be more talented on the individual basis these ratings try to apply to this team sport. And they’re not that far ahead of us, if we weigh their skill positions more. And I’m not really sold on UW being so, except for their WRs.
*3 or 4 in the PAC
I will say I am impressed with the team Chip Kelly has put together. But I think that has more to do with a football nerd being able to evaluate every corner of his hometown talent, not what camp ratings tell him from afar.
Do yourself a favor and take a stats course, I enjoyed mine, but there is no statistical significant between Zona and OSU in the data you linked too. Average ranking player rating between OSU and ZONA is 85.79 vs 85.85
You enjoyed Stats? Yuck. I took Stats for MEs and all we talked about was HP printer cartridges the whole term.
PC load letter?
What the fuck does that mean?
I know what your profile picture is, but I can’t help but see Baby Yoda first whenever I look at the compressed blurry version.
Yeah, I could see that.
No civil war football in 2024……………
https://kval.com/news/local/ducks-announce-that-they-will-not-play-oregon-state-university-in-2024#
And I’m not an attorney but this one is kind of head scratching……wasn’t this already decided? Shit could be voted on that pertained only to this year?
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38804334/departing-pac-12-schools-oppose-oregon-st-washington-st-motion
Wow, journalists are so incompetent.
The Ducks play their first Big10 conference game against Idaho on Aug 31st.
Really? Idaho is in the Big10?
Good, I have no interest in ever playing Oregon again. Fuck them.
Conference business can be voted on only with unanimous consent, so good luck getting everybody on the same page
The other 10 schools will contest that they played this year’s schedule,thus were part of the conference, and are entitled to shares.
But we’re also ready to dissolve the conference out from under OSU/WSU before the end of the year too. So disingenuous it is appalling.
*they were also ready to dissolve
“You don’t win something big without taking some risk. You just don’t want it to be gambles. I didn’t gamble, I risked.” Coach K
JS needs to learn this lesson, above I made the comparison between investing in real estate and playing the lottery as an investment strategy. It feels like JS is playing the lottery versus making calculated risks
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/departing-pac-12-schools-say-in-court-filing-they-should-stay-in-board-of-directors-until-they-leave/ar-AA1jiGqr
So… nothing new?
Get a load of this steaming pile of bullshit:
““Granting OSU and WSU unilateral authority over hundreds of millions of dollars in 2023-2024 revenue needed this year to run our athletics programs would harm our universities, including our ability to provide critical resources and opportunities for our student-athletes,” the 10 departing schools said in a statement.”
Yes, you ten brilliant institutions. We’re just going to run off with all the distributions from this year, because we’re as wholly pathetic as you all.
Are they just scraping the bottom of their shoes and smoking what they find?
These have to be some of the stupidest “legal” arguments I’ve ever seen. And I just watched some massively stupid trust fund brat stand up yesterday and complain that he was being treated like a villain for “signing off” on what his accountants gave him–which were documents where their CPAs said, “We’re not going to sign off on this bullshit, because it’s bullshit. Give us real numbers, and we’ll do it.” Yes, the Indigent 10’s “legal” arguments are more stupid than a Trump, and that is no small feat.
We’re saved! My wife has informed me that in the Colorado game there will be no stupid calls by our beloved coaching staff!
What does she say about our run game?
Run it!
I haven’t gotten the sense that JS is going to moderate his style.No matter how embarrassing is how much he is chided. He recognized it was a bad decision but we can’t be certain he believes it was bad strategy or bad play call or bad luck. I’m more wondering about general philosophy of when he considers best to call trick plus etc.
According to Daschel, despite oregon already announcing their 4 non con games(extra game because they play Hawaii next year) OSU amd Oregon are still in talks about finding a way to make the Civil War happen next year.
Obviously that would mean oregon would need to move one of their road games or buy their way out of it. So i guess its not totally over, although i’ll believe they’ll play when i see it.
We’ll need the content for the next couple years. But it has to be a 1 for 1, starting in Corvallis.
After that, they can go kick bricks.
For anybody wants to read UW’s most recent filing (via Wilner) and OSU/WSU brief response.
Basically, the 10 teams are worried OSU/WSU will take current year revenues earned by the 10 teams and keep it for themselves. Which obviously is projecting what they would have done given similar circumstances, rather than basing an argument in fact. It’s hard to prove something that hasnt happened.
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/wsu-cougar-football/departing-pac-12-schools-suggest-wsu-osu-want-2023-24-revenue-for-themselves/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=owned_echobox_tw_m&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1698968333
This is some of the silliest legalese I’ve ever seen.
In what reality were these schools existing, to even imagine this stuff?
The reverse merger with the MWC will be an upgrade in associated members, given this petty narrative. No wonder the Pac 12 collapsed, with this shining example of brilliant leadership in legal matters.
UW president Cauce, who is their board member and was the Pac12 board chair for the year after USC/UCLA left, submitted a statement on the record that she was never informed USC/UCLA were having the board sests stripped and said had she known, she would have never supported it.
How does the chair position not notice that 2 teams are never present in Board meetings for 1 year but not ask why they are missing? That’s some serious deriliction of duty for someone in that role.
Right?
“But your honor, in my defense, my uncurious nature, required as a part of my job, as a leader of an institution of higher learning, led me to suck at my job. If I didn’t suck, then I wouldn’t have sucked… if you know what I mean.”
Not followed as intimately as the rest, but based on the occasional stuff that’s come out, in context with how the universities originally left…
I have absolutely no sympathy for their arguments over what they think is fair.
Let it be worked out in settlement, court and so on. Let the PAC-2 successfully put forward the best case they can, and let them come away with the best arrangement feasible.
I guess its official. No “Rivalry Game” next year. They might need that extra non-con game with Hawaii in order to be bowl-eligible. They can count on three losses before the season even starts.
I really don’t care about playing Oregon. They knew exactly what they were doing. To say they really want the game to continue is probably something they should have thought of – or maybe discussed – during that 20 min. meeting where their board signed off on the move to the Big Whatever.
This was official on August 4.
Why are the UW/UO decisions to chase money so hard for their fans to understand? They made the decision to leave their rivalry games. They left. They did that.
Good riddance.
Ducks football won’t suffer travel all that much in 2024. Faraway Midwest teams are mostly coming to Autzen.
???
They do have 8 home games, but, are at…Purdue, Michigan and Wisconsin and are also at Hawaii to start the season
Look more closely at their byes and what’s between them.
Their B10 Rival is UW, didn’t you notice the marketing in the UO@UW game? They’ll just import it over and have an instant B10 tradition feel to it….
Because this is the “last opportunity” to beat the Ducks, Smith will probably fuck away what surprisingly turns out to be a winnable game at Autzen….hope DJU dodges sack attempts by his lil’ bro….
Anyone else feel like ducks will have a better chance to compete against top teams with playing Big 10 teams? The knock has been line play and going against more physical defenses. They’ll be doing that a lot more. It won’t just be Utah and us to give them a taste of that style of play. I think it’ll help them recruit more nationally too and get more big players, not just fast, leaner guys that are ranked high in western states.
If they don’t win immediately, a lot of focus will be on how West Coast teams travel (and in what conditions they travel).
USC and UCLA get some great and good treatment next year. UW gets a pretty lousy schedule. The University of Phil gets crapped on.
We know who’s on the bottom of the food chain, right off the bat.
If ducks agree to come to Reser in 2024, we absolutely should play them. Need to stay relevant, win the lawsuit, get more discovery, have a decent schedule, and beat ducks which will happen in Reser if we can keep our players and coaches plus do all of the above. It’s not the obvious emotional decision but it’s the logical choice. That said, no way ducks will do it. They’re posturing and acting like they’re open to it but not gonna happen even though it’s possible given their schedule
Whip the ducks this month then have Barnes say he doubts they really want to play us since they’ve lost 3 of the last 4. Shame them into coming to Reser, and paying.
Easy, huh?
They can go play out east and like it.
We’re not here to bail them out of their poor choices.
they really loaded their schedule up with home games next year. 8 home games is nuts.
That’s part of the honeymoon period.
I agree, no way OSU plays then anytime soon unless the first game is at RESER. I could see a scenario where Oregon says they will play OSU x number of times but only if they are in Eugene, or maybe throw OSU a bone and give them a “home” game in Portland. That way Oregon can say “see, we wanted to play OSU, but the Beavers said no.”
PHIL STEELE REPORT:
Underdog has covered 5 of the last 7 (3-4 SU). Last year it was Colorado (+23’). RB Martinez rushed for 178 and the Beavers led 21-3 at halftime and won 42-9 with a 472-290 yard edge. Beavers lead series 7-6, are 4-4 SU & ATS in P12 play vs the Buffs but have covered 3 of the last 4 (2-2 SU). Last time here (‘21) Oregon State (-11’) trailed 10-0 2Q but hit a 60-yard FG with :00 to send the game to OT (27-27) but lost 37-34 in 2OT. Oregon State opened a strong 6-1 with their only loss at Washington St by 3 and wins over Utah and UCLA at home. Last week Oregon State went 75/12 for a TD on the opening drive but tied 10-10 faked a 33 yd FG with :03 and got the FD but needed to score a TD on the play as no time was left. Oregon State went 80/9 for a TD and led 17-13 with 14:47 left. Arizona punted then drove 40/2 and 55/10 to lead 27-17 with 2:22 left. Oregon State went 75/4 for a TD with 1:38 and had a 407-363 yd edge. QB DJ Uiagalelei is hitting 59% with a 17-4 ratio and Martinez has 763 (6.4) rush yards. Colorado got off to a stunning 3-0 start but then went 1-3 with a close come from behind loss to USC and blew a 29-0 lead over Stanford. Last week UCLA had 4 TO’s in the 1H plus a missed FG and only led 7-6 with a 222-107-yard edge. UCLA scored TDs on 3 of first 4 drives 2H and had 7 sacks for the first time s/2019. UCLA led 28-9 when Colorado drove 86/9 for a TD with 2:37 left for the back door cover. Shedeur Sanders hit 27-43-217-1-0 and is hitting 71% with a 22-3 ratio but the D is allowing foes 20 ypg above opponent average and they are -118 ypg in Pac 12 play. Jonathan Smith is 10-20 SU on the road but did win at California 52-40 this year. This is the 2nd straight road game for Oregon State and Colorado has an altitude edge. My computer has Oregon State 40-27 and my L4W AGG has Oregon State by 12.8. Colorado has taken on the tougher schedule (#2 vs #28). Tough one to pick so I will go with my computer’s forecast.
#16 OREGON STATE 40, COLORADO 27
COMPUTER FORECAST (ORST-COL):
Rush Yards: 196-80
Pass Yards: 284-312
Total Yards: 480-392
Score: 39.1-27.1
EXP: 28-2
VEGAS LINE: Oregon State by 13.5
VEGAS TOTAL: 62.5 Points
+/- Rating: Oregon State by 15.8
Game Grade: Oregon State by 8.5
L4W Game Grade: Oregon State by 12.9
Last Met Line: Oregon State -17.5
Last Met Score: Oregon State -27
Points Per Yards : Oregon State by 6.8
PAC-12
#20 USC 42, #5 Washington 40
#6 Oregon 48, California 20
#18 Utah 21, Arizona State 13
#19 UCLA 21, Arizona 17
Washington State 41, Stanford 27
NATIONAL
#1 Ohio State 27, Rutgers 9
#2 Georgia 38, #12 Missouri 17
#3 Michigan 44, Purdue 6
#4 Florida State 37, Pittsburgh 20
#7 Texas 27, #23 Kansas State 17
#8 Alabama 34, #14 LSU 27
#22 Oklahoma State 35, #9 Oklahoma 34 (BEST BET: Oklahoma State +6)
Texas A&M 30, #10 Ole Miss 27
#11 Penn State 36, Maryland 20 (COMPUTER BEST BET: Penn State -8.5)
#13 Louisville 30, Virginia Tech 13 (COMPUTER BEST BET: Louisville -9.5)
#15 Notre Dame 20, Clemson 17
#17 Tennessee 48, Connecticut 10
Iowa State 31, #21 Kansas 23 (BEST BET: Iowa State -2.5)
#24 Tulane 26, East Carolina 16 (COMPUTER BEST BET: East Carolina +17)
#25 Air Force 20, Army West Point 6
“Jonathan Smith is 10-20 SU on the road but did win at California 52-40 this year. This is the 2nd straight road game for Oregon State and Colorado has an altitude edge.”
Who is out for this game from the OSU secondary?
Curious to see how this ordeal plays out for the baseball schedule.
Personally would love to see OSU reject any matchups with the traitorous 10 and opt for more in-season tournaments with the SEC and Big 12.
So far Skyler Thomas, Noble Thomas, Tyrice Ivey, Ryan Cooper, Alton Julian
Too many starter caliber guys are down which is why Bray is plying true freshmen and guys not listed on the 3 deep, and tackling reflects it as well as missed communication in any form of zone coverage.
Dline needs to out perform UCLA and punish Sanders or he may have a big day against the secondary.
Anyone betting the under on this game is crazy. I expect it to be in the 40s just because Beavs will struggle to defend the passing game. Beavs should have no problem scoring.
Question will be whether JS and BL can call a winning game with proper perspective rather than balance and gambling.
I was talking to someone that works for the football team and they said Smith apologized to the team for the fake FG and said it was dumb. He also said they were practicing it all week, making sure the linemen cleared out of the hole, and the whole time he was shaking his head at what a dumb idea it was. Although I thought it was actually a good play if you had time on the clock and only needed a couple yards. The first time they ran it made sense.
Oh God, that almost makes it worse. He knew it was dumb and did it anyway.
“We were chomping at the bit to run a dumb play, twice”
This points to either Cookus made the call without Smith’s consent, or Smith didn’t have the sense to override him. Either way, there is stupidity lurking among the staff…
Yes huge red flag if Cookus isn’t jettisoned or the lesson isn’t learned from such mistakes.
Saw a comment on what the Oregon/UW rivalry weekend game should be.
The Bitches with D*cks Game
Just saw a blurb Colorado shaking up coaching staff with new OC.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38809148/sources-colorado-pat-shurmur-call-plays-new-role
Yeah threw Sean Lewis under the bus.
“Quarterback Shedeur Sanders was sacked seven times in the defeat and was hit 17 other times and knocked down 13 times. Colorado failed to score a touchdown until late in the fourth quarter, and the Buffaloes managed only 25 rushing yards…”
Sonofabitch. Hope the Beavers get to the QB….
If they don’t it’ll be a travesty.
With our luck, that would be 17 roughing the passer flags
Pat Shurmur is a legit OC.
Doesn’t matter, does it?
Sanders has had his “private, personal meeting with the whole offensive line” and now he’s shuffled the offensive coaching staff (how’d he make room for Shurmur….somebody had to go).
Doubt Beavs see any significant results from this move. Maybe in a couple weeks.
It’ll matter for tomorrow, because CU’s game plan should be to get the ball to the edge.
Planning and executing are two different things. I’ll be surprised if Buffs can successfully make a significant change.
Smith needs to start getting more worked up at the refs when we get screwed. Tired of him just acting like it’s nothing. Even with the questionable calls and terrible fake, we still would have won if Arizona had punted like they would have on that one drive and hadn’t gotten one of the most BS roughing the passer calls I’ve ever seen. Yes, the defense collapsed after the call, but momentum is real, and it’s a killer when it goes the other way, which is what happened with that penalty.
Ultimately, Smith arguing is unlikely to change anything, but seeing your coach get fired up like that at a terrible call and not go “oh well” calmly continue as usual like Smith always does, is a big motivator.
yup.
See Pat Casey.
Arguing with officials is meaningless 99% if the time.
Smith needs to believe in the talent he has and believe in his coaching staff’s ability to put them where they need to be and stop playing like a 20 underdog. Especially on the road.
Run the ball and play action on offense. Control the ball, don’t make mistakes and they can still win the conference.
Program defining game today with all the celebrities and media pundits in attendance.
Best way to kill a buffalo is with a freight train aka Martinez and Fenwick.
Not liking this game. On paper, this looks like OSU should RUN away with this game. However, it’s a road game and that starts any JS team with a 10+ point deficit. Not sure why that is but we can’t win on the road. Biggest question mark is…can the coaches stay out of their own way? I don’t think BL will change anything about his approach. 2 years ago we ran the ball 60ish % of the time…this year we’re hovering around 53%. Do you realize we ran the ball only 2 times in the 4th quarter last week? D Mart averaging 7 yds a carry and only ran the ball 14 times. If he doesn’t get close to 25 carries this game Beavs likely lose this game. Our secondary is best to ahit and can’t tackle. Colorado has great skill positions and I can see Sanders getting 400+ ydd against the young players that can’t tackle. Everyone lnows the key to this game is to run the ball, dominate line of scrimmage and limit the offensive ToP of Colorado. Naturally, this means BL will do the exact opposite and I can see this being another situation where the game is decided by the final possession of the game.
IF the Beavs run the ball and limit the pass, we win this game by 2 td’s. IF, they go against common sense and need to score in bunches I think we lose this game by 3 to 10 pts. I understand Colorado defense is awful but we play down to our opponent, our O Coordinator is too narcissistic to do what’s necessary to win and it’s a road game. Hope for the best as this is a must win game as I don’t see us having a chance to best UW or Hole.
Relax everyone. We got this! All we need today to set us up for the remainder of this magical season is:
1) JS to overcome his gambling ways
2) Lindgren to run the ball
3) Utah to beat ASU
4) Cal to beat OU
5) USC to beat UW
6) Stanford to beat WSU (then we beat Stanford next week)
7) UCLA to beat AU
8) win out the remaining games
Not a problem!
#sarcasmoneofmybettertraits
We still control our own destiny, so long as UW beats USC.