14.Oct.2013 Oregon State @ California

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 5.0/5 (1 vote cast)

I remember playing Monopoly as a kid, and the Community Chest cards would always read, “such and such error” in the other guy’s favor. The Cougs’ botched punt felt like that, only in reverse. i.e. [bad] luck of my life, luck o’ the Beavs, etc, IN REVERSE. Pretty amazing. Anyway, I do feel like something clicked at that moment. The play calling became genius, the defense clamped down, …everything clicked. Everything. And even though we can say “well, it was just the Cougs, and they aren’t very good”, I feel like I saw something. A USC 2006 type moment. Maybe I am losing it, as some naysayers here suggested. But I expect a string of victories after that performance. The team has to be feeling great, and that’s infectious and contagious. Hell, even I have Beaver fever (puke). Yeah, there were things I didn’t like: run game, Riley smiling on the sidelines, 3 quarters of anemic football, etc. But big picture, that 4th quarter performance can propel.

Cal is one of the easier games on the schedule, so it’s just a matter of staying focused and not looking ahead to Stanford.

Speaking of which, Stanford’s most impressive win has been Washington. People are chirping that OSU will win a game we don’t expect–could be Stanford. That QB is a bit overrated, and as Harbaugh’s players leave the program…I expect Shaw gets exposed/there is more decline coming.

To me, the worst upcoming matchups are Arizona State and Oregon. Both teams are fast all over with mobile QBs who can also throw. Every other team is beatable so long as the offense stays healthy. I’m on a bit of a high from last week, so take this with a grain of salt, but I think Cal, Stanford, and USC are wins. Arizona State a loss. Washington 50/50. Oregon a loss.

Regarding Cal, the QB is promising, but I don’t worry much about pocket passers. They’re also beat up everywhere on D, so I expect OSU’s offense to overwhelm them. The only way Cal wins is if Goff dismantles the secondary, but I think that window of opportunity is quickly closing, as Reynolds and Nelson both tighten up. The secondary has been slowly improving.

The game is at Cal and a late start, both of which work against the Beavs, so I’ll keep it reasonable.

Oregon State 38, Cal 20

Jump to Bottom
  • wannabeav says:
    VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    To the extent Riley has been successful in the second part of his OSU career the foundation has been built on road wins in Pullman and Berkeley and home wins vs. SC. Beavs just seem to have Cal’s number, without regard to talent levels; in the same way games in Tempe are always tough for OSU. I have to agree that no one has gotten more favorable coverage out of so little product, comparatively, as Hogan. We had him on the ropes last year and it was the combination of that lucky as hell pass to the sideline they broke for a TD plus Vaz’s fumble that handed that game over. So, I think you’ve got the right call here, Angry. Beavs win vs. Cal and make the game vs. Stanford interesting, at a minimum, and perhaps win it. Huskies likely will have little to play for by the time they roll into Corvallis and though they may have more talent the home finale and probably yet another night game makes that game quite winnable too.

  • Dwill03 Dwill03 says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: +1 (from 1 vote)

    The angry beaver fever… I like it!

  • bendbeaver bendbeaver says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: +1 (from 1 vote)

    I just tapped my keg of beaverjuice, too.

  • sandiegan says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: +3 (from 3 votes)

    WTF who replaced Angry!?

    • angry angry says:
      VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: +3 (from 3 votes)

      I predicted a 7-0 start and only became uber bearish after EWU. I’m back. We’ll see how long it lasts. When bears become bulls it’s usually a bad omen.

      From January:
      Also in Riley’s favor is that next year’s schedule looks weak (Eastern Washington, Hawaii, Utah, San Diego State, Colorado, Washington State, Cal)…the Beavs could conceivably be 7-0 again. The schedule is back loaded with Stanford, USC, ASU, and Oregon, so is the trend now to start fast and then fade? This leads me to believe the program is stable, and the Pollyannas will have a good run.

  • Beavblazer Beavblazer says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    I’ve found this team to be very entertaining. Can’t ask for much more than that.

    Looking forward, if the Beavs lose 2 games, like Angry mentions ASU and UO, and Oregon wins out, that would put OSU in 2nd place in the Pac north. If ASU and UCLA both end up with3 pac 12 losses, who goes Rose Bowling when Oregon goes to the NCAA cahmpionship game? Last year Stanford and Oregon took the top 2 bowl slots out of the north. This team can keep that goal alive the way they’re starting to play.

    • sandiegan says:
      VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: +2 (from 2 votes)

      Is ASU really any good? I’ve never liked them or UA but that’s also cause I just don’t like the state of Arizona lol.

      • angry angry says:
        VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
        Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

        They’re not a great team at all, but they’re fast and matchup well versus the Beavs.

    • Whiskey soaked napkins says:
      VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: 0 (from 2 votes)

      Won’t be a 3 loss beaver team with a loss to an FCS team. Won’t be ranked high enough in the BCS rankings to be eligible for an at large berth. I don’t even think a 10-2 beaver team with losses to Oregon and and FCS team would be enough. That EWU loss is a killer to any BCS at large hopes. Bu fear not my beaver brethren we will lose enough games to make that pipe dream a moot point even before the civil bore (and believe me it will be another uo rout). It’s the beaver way. Build up your hopes and then it all comes crashing down. Seen this re run too many times.

      • bone says:
        VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
        Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

        I think it was a couple years ago, but didn’t virginia tech lose to a bad fcs school and still make a bcs bowl?

        • BeavinTX says:
          VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
          Rating: +1 (from 1 vote)

          They were an automatic qualifier as conference champion. That path seems unlikely for OSU at this point.

      • ObjCritic says:
        VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
        Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

        That would be like Riley/Luck O the Beavers…10-2, non-qualifier because they scored 46 points against an FCS team and still managed to lose.

        It’s “dangerous” to get bullish on a team that doesn’t play well in all three phases of the game and is weak at a fundamental like run blocking and has lapses in tacking. When you compound the other challenges (poor clock management, poor adjustments, etc.) it’s asking to get disappointed.

        Saw on the other thread somebody said something to the effect that “this team hasn’t established it’s identity yet.” which I disagree with. They may not be as good as they’re capable of, but they have most certainly defined themselves. They’re a dangerous passing team, can’t run competently, have defensive lapses, have depth issues at DT, LB, and probably QB (I don’t think Vaz puts up these kinds of numbers if plugged in for Mannion) and the coaching staff is often slow to adjust and still can’t manage a clock. I’m buying!

        And all of the winning is with little to no pressure. in the conference and national context, this team was essentially written off and forgotten by everyone else after EWU. Each victory is followed with a “well, but [team name] is weak” skepticism. Expect that after Cal too.

        The late games reduce pressure as well, because the viewing audience is smaller. This might indirectly benefit a Riley program that does better without pressure, but it also reduces the exposure and acknowledgement of Mannion and Cooks. I wish the Stanford/Game was at 1 pm, with a larger viewing audience. It could be a great game and if the Beavs win with the lights on, maybe their ascending confidence continues to climb.

        I still can’t trust Riley/Banker. I’d hope for an entertaining Holiday Bowl featuring the high-scoring Beavers, and for Mannion/Cooks to stick around for another year to feed that “maybe next year” mentality.

        • ObjCritic says:
          VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
          Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

          Oh, and don’t forget. A victory against hapless Cal bowl-qualifies OSU, adds a year to Riley’s contract, all before the real pressure of the schedule hits.

        • VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
          Rating: +1 (from 1 vote)

          Depth issues at QB? I disagree.

          • ObjCritic says:
            VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: -1 (from 1 vote)

            Do you think Vaz maintains Mannion’s pace, or is productive enough for victories against an increasingly difficult schedule? Maybe the pass blocking is such that I’m wrong. But I don’t think so. What Manion is doing right now is special, and I certainly don’t think Vaz would take care of the ball as well as Mannion.

          • oneoldbeav says:
            VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: -1 (from 1 vote)

            ObjCritic said, “probably (at) QB” and I can’t disagree.

            Beavs have a couple backups at QB who can step in, but when your O is so focused on Mannion’s arm it is likely that neither could step in and maintain his production. I doubt anyone could establish the chemistry with Cooks in less than a couple games.

            I’ll be concerned about Sean’s health till the year is over. A real challenge for Riley to keep Vaz engaged and available, if he is needed an improved running game is the only way Beavs continue to win. As for Vanderveen, I’d like to see him get some reps since Vaz won’t be around next year; but, how do you keep Vaz focused while giving Vanderveen reps for development?

          • VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

            The starters are starters for a reason, because they’re better than the next guy in line. This doesn’t automatically equate to a depth issue.

          • oneoldbeav says:
            VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: -2 (from 2 votes)

            All true. But, for me a having a depth issue means: a high probability that results will be negatively impacted if the starter is not in the game.

          • VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: +2 (from 2 votes)

            I’ll solve all your depth issues. We’ll start all the backups.

          • Beavergopher Beavergopher says:
            VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

            Brilliant!

        • angry angry says:
          VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
          Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

          It’s “dangerous” to get bullish on a team that doesn’t play well in all three phases of the game and is weak at a fundamental like run blocking and has lapses in tacking.

          Very true. I’m cautious…a stock analogy would be dollar cost averaging rather than going all-in.

          I still can’t trust Riley/Banker.

          Oh, that goes without saying. Don’t mistake an emotional response (of optimism) for trust. Everyone is talking up the Beavs, and even I am falling for what I saw in that 4th quarter. The majority is rarely right, and now that I’m in that camp, I am likely wrong. We are likely headed for heartbreak soon. But, I can’t deny what I saw, and today there is reason for optimism.

          • ObjCritic says:
            VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

            Agreed. I can’t forget last year, when a victory at UW seemed sure, the running game was working (Woods at nearly 6 YPC), and Riley went away from it and lost badly; a sitcom-quality pratfall that indicated the program had NOT turned the corner.

            This is a throwing offense that can be fun to watch, but it would be difficult to say with a straight face that the team plays the game well. The difference between the two is usually a December date with a mountain west team v. a solid bowl game.

            We’ve seen some defensive improvements, but I think that is in part a by product of recent, poor play and subsequently low expectations. For example we’re shocked when Jabral Johnson makes an open field, TD-saving tackle against a Colorado QB who isn’t drawing comparisons to Mariota.

            OSU started the season with a pratfall against an athletic qb; more and better athletes are around the corner. Also, the palpable, “3rd quarter complacency” Riley displayed against the likes of UW, Stanford, and Texas may hit for the season after bowl eligibility is attained.

  • helicopterbeav says:
    VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    Optimism has broken out and running rapid. Angry, you just poured gas on the fire.

    I for one am stoked on this Beaver team. Best quarterback and best wide receiver in the country. I don’t think we’ve ever been able to say that.

    If we run the table, Mannion wins the Heisman.

  • steveEbeaver says:
    VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: +1 (from 1 vote)

    If the O-line gets healthy, and this is a big if, I think the run game has a chance to become a big factor in wins down the road. Based on the devistating screen passes against WSU the running backs can come up big if given some space and if the O-line can open up some holes this offense can really break out.

    The defense is the reason I’m not drinking the beaverjuice. If not for turnovers we wouldn’t be 5-1 and I don’t think we can count on the future opponents turning the ball over (except for Cal of course).

    No way Mannion wins the Heisman this year no matter what the team does or what his stats are. Next year if he would put up the same numbers he would win going away. Prior to Tebow winning the trophy the winners were Jrs and Srs and the last Sr to win was Troy Smith, tOSU in 2006. It would be good for college football if a senior won the Heisman again.

    • angry angry says:
      VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: +2 (from 2 votes)

      That’s not true at all. Mariotta is only a sophomore and may very well win it.

      • ObjCritic says:
        VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
        Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

        I could see Mariota winning if they continue to get games scheduled that the east coast can watch. His overall TD productivity is very similar to Mannion’s, yet he’s likley played far fewer snaps.

      • steveEbeaver says:
        VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
        Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

        What’s “not true at all”? That Mannion has no chance of winning or it would be better for college football if a senior won the trophy?

    • carltogr carltogr says:
      VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

      Was Manziel a frosh when he won it? It’s trending to include the younger classes more frequently….

      • steveEbeaver says:
        VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
        Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

        Last 6 winners: Tebow, Bradford, Ingram all soph, Newton and RG3 juniors and Manziel a freshman.

  • Beavblazer Beavblazer says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 2 votes)

    So Portland will be getting an Arena leage football team soon. They’re planning to bring in several former Beavs amd Ducks to help build fan interest.
    The team owner started a fan based contest to help name the team. A local radio host has suggested fans vote in the mascot as the “Platypus” or “Platypusses” and dreams of team apparel with the phrase “Go Pusses!”

    If anybody want to help the cause to bring the Pusses to Portland, follow the link in this article.

    http://psuvanguard.com/sports/the-platypi-are-coming/

    • whiskeysoakednapkins says:
      VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: +2 (from 6 votes)

      The People’s Republic of Portland already has enough pusses. Don’t need any more

  • PDX Beav says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    Angry – did you see this article on CNN “Why I’m saying goodbye to football”:

    http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/15/opinion/jones-nfl-head-injuries/index.html?hpt=hp_t4

    Not exactly the same reason why you believe football will begin deteriorating (head injuries and concussions, versus money and media only supporting the top teams), but I think it’s interesting nonetheless.

    • angry angry says:
      VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

      I didn’t, thanks though. I don’t like that argument, because everything I have read says head injuries are declining due to rule changes, better equipment, better conditioned athletes, etc. CNN plays up emotional, populist responses. Their govt shutdown headlines were hilarious.

      • PDX Beav says:
        VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
        Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

        I agree re: CNN. Only thing I’ve noticed about the “government shutdown” is that there’s been slightly better rush hour traffic.

  • bendbeaver bendbeaver says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    OT. Someone had too much of the beaverjuice:

    http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2013/10/oregon_state_baseball_pitcher.html

  • ObjCritic says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    In the eyes of viewers on this site, how are the Beavers young LBs progressing? Saulo, Songy, Mageo? Mageo?

    • carltogr carltogr says:
      VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

      They play young, but are very promising. I like Saulo and Mageo….controlled aggression, but still need polishing on being in the right place/time.

  • Whiskey soaked napkins says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    I don’t see this game being close. Cal turns it over in bunches. The only way it stays close is if cal plays out of their minds and doesn’t cough it up multiple times. Their d has something like 10 of 11 starters hurt. Beavs roll 55-14

  • Recruiting Updates

  • Categories

  • Archives