Have at it, Beavos.
How about no-politics policy this thread since it’s driving people away? Lol…that will last one comment at most.
Have at it, Beavos.
How about no-politics policy this thread since it’s driving people away? Lol…that will last one comment at most.
So how long will COVID-19 delay redoing the West side of Reser? Does Oregon State start the season on time this year?
Average attendance if they do get in a season or atleast Pac-12 conference play?
Alot of questions. Answers look up in the air.
Hope we get some kind of fall sports to get back to more of regular life by some time later this year.
That’s a really good question. The project has been derailed several times now and after every derailment they need a new 4-5 year feasibility study.
At this point, it wouldn’t make any sense to invest in stadium improvements until we can see proof that fans will return. If they try 1 season with no fans, people will become even more accustomed to being good with skipping the game day experience and watching from home. It will give the remaining lifetime season ticket holders a break from the normal routine and what if some decide it’s a better experience from home with their buddies?
Maybe we should start up Angrybeavs viewing parties on Zoom next season?
like, forever. If college fb doesn’t play this fall there will be a vast wash out in big time athletics: AD’s, coaches, programs, etc.
I think the season will be delayed at minimum. They will play games when they can. If it has to start a month or two late and go into Jan/Feb. They will do it. Too much money at stake. Plus people will want it no matter how delayed.
Remembering post 9/11 when they decided to start playing sports again. Was the first baseball game the one where George W threw out the first pitch and he nailed it?
That was such a signature moment.
I wonder what the first game back will be? I can’t imagine they’re going to give that moment to a Temple vs East Carolina type game. Doesn’t it just seem they’ll aim for some big iconic game to bring things back into normalcy?
Maybe the NFL will be the first league to kick things off. Or will they have a truncated baseball season that starts really late?
I’m hoping the season gets started a month late, allowing basically only league games throughout the country, no body bag games, no cupcakes…but the SEC late season cupcakes would have to be cancelled too.
I think people will be eager to return to normalcy IF there’s a clear, green light from the medical field. Its crowd gathering is not prohibited, but also not recommended, I think the gate suffers significantly. The other challenge is if people have suffered financially for months, are they really going to put money into attending a game? Would parking, tickets, concessions all be reduced meaningfully to help encourage attendance?
Aaron fit said he thinks there is a good chance Kevin able is going to be back next year
there’s an upside to corona.
If MLB draft is off or delayed, might get Mick Abel to school too.
That’s quite the upgrade in rotation.
if the Beavs get the Abels plus a good hitter or two they could hit Omaha.
I could be wrong, bit thought it was 1 Abel and 1 Able.
Canham is lucky to get a reset on his first season. 2020 was looking pretty rough.
Angry – locked myself out and cant reset.
Anyway, I’m working on the Seattle Arena project…still going full tilt. Well sort of. Scaled down crews and a lot of added measures. Different market though – the seats will still get filled even in a downturn. The OSU fanbase may not be as shielded from a down turn?
I approved you. Click here if you need a password reset: http://angrybeavs.com/wp-login.php
Thanks!
From the last thread:
“Get your motherboard checked, blue!”
Classic angry, bears repeating!
I can hear wannabeav now.
oh, the humanity!
Haha. I liked that one, too.
so I’m in on the new theme, Angry (until someone else draws first blood and I have to respond to some nonsense). Anyone hear the re-broadcast of the 2008 OSU victory over SC? A lot of favorites in that game, including Lyle and Johnny Hekker (who pinned SC at the 2 yard line late in the game), Quiz, James, etc. It was amazing how loud it was in the stadium: Parker and Wilson had to shout over the noise. Come to think of it, that might have been Riley’s apex. He blew the Utah game a couple weeks later by chasing an early missed extra point plus some vintage clock mis-management and then he and Banker, resting on their laurels with a victory over SC in their pocket, went into the Civil War game overconfident and got completely out-coached.
The Utah game was the next week and the refs blew a big call at the end of the game. Called a BS pass interference allowing Utah to tie the game.
I remember that.
I went to that OSU/USC game. I remember it being another season where the Beavs were slow out of the gate(Lost big on the road to Penn State, and then there was another loss(Stanford?)
Was offered free tix about 3 hours before game time and decided to drive down last minute from Portland. How often do you get to see a #1 team? Really was expecting a blowout with the Beavs losing.
Thursday night game, started around 6. Just a recipe for small crowd. Upper deck on East side was not even 50% full. So you could imagine how loud it could have been if people actually showed up?
I think I got home around midnight, watched highlights till around 2 on my DVR, and got up at 6 the next morning for work.
The good ol days when that seemed doable.
Ah, yes. 2008: the year of the brutal 3-0 Sun Bowl.
I think that game is on the top 10 worst bowl games ever played list.
We won, so it’s a good game.
I think the context was pretty brutal wind that limited offensive opportunities, wasn’t it? And wasn’t that against Pitt? They had a very good RB who has had a long productive career in the NFL and I recall the Beavs holding him in check pretty well.
Wasn’t President Gerald Ford’s funeral shown about halfway through? I remember wanting to call up and complain to the local affiliate broadcasting the game to complain. Ends up I really hadn’t missed much of the game…
Anyone know what the athletic department running cost is if there is no sports going?
Barnes makes 900k per year so …
Mullens is taking a ssignificant pay decrease to help the Orrgon athletic department and they have deep pockets.
Why isn’t Barnes taking a substantial pay cut to help OSU?
Ab
My email below was obviously not intended for you.
Sent from my iPhone
On Jul 8, 2017, at 2:58 PM, Barnes, Scott wrote:
Um for the 3rd time we discussed 3:45 that makes us 15 to 20 min late . It starts at 5pm and takes 1:30 to get there.
Sent from my iPhone
Greedy
Salaries. Ran into a someone I know from the ticket office and she’s still working. Another guy I know said the game day staffers are out of luck. It isn’t like players are helping cover their lost pay like you see from NBA players.
Haven’t heard if OSU has announced what they will do with baseball season ticket holders – roll their unused tickets into next year I guess? Give them the option of “donating” the balance of their tickets to the program.
Not sure if it’s been discussed and I realize the media and the SID is very protective of medical info but I’m curious if anyone knows what Tanya Chaplin’s health issues were. Glad she’s back.
Anyone know if the Corvallis Knights have made a decision on their status?
Re the knights…good question, we’ve sponsored a night the last three year. The last I time talked to bre we were discussing options for this year’s season…then no communication at all. I’ll reach out Monday and see what their plans are.
Just watched 1917. Wow! Even though that’s the Disney version of how bad WWI was still excellent.
I love the cinematography of the film. All of those continuous shots make the action very impactful.
Great film.
I still need to check it out. You’d think with all of this extra home time I’d be able to catch up, but the list grows.
For anybody with kids, disney plus had a couple of new nature documentaries come out this week. The Elephants show had some pretty amazing footage and is a good family show. I’m really impressed with streaming quality during this period when i would suspect a ton more people are streaking than usual.
If anyone is interested in really learning the history of WW1 check out Dan Carlin’s podcast Hardcore History. Blueprint for Armageddon episodes 1 thru 6, absolutley the best info out there. Warning it is long.
Two movies: All Quiet on the Western Front, and Breaker Morant
Absolutely…
Such a good podcast. For a fun semi-fiction overview Ken Follett’s Fall of Giants is a good read.
That’s what I was saying in the previous thread. Like wrigg said the cinematography and directing is great. The sets are super impressive as well. I watched the blu ray and then the DVD version. Defense watch on blu ray!
Speaking of kids, the lady and I have been considering one for the past year. Still unsure. For those of you who have them, any opinions? Lol. My fear is I’ll get a shitty meathead type kid, like Biff from Back to the Future. What the hell do you do if that pops out??
Also into this political/economic environment not sure it’s kind to bring a kid into it. Also, had bad are they on your finances? I have major sleep problems as is, so I guess I’d expect more and/or have company when I wake? Anyone here not have kids and regret not doing so? The lady’s fear is she dies during birth and also not bonding with a shitty kid if we get a Biff.
I kind of want to decide yes or no on this soon and move on either way.
Thanks!
I totally understand the hesitation. Aside from the political/economic uncertainty, it’s also a big sacrifice personally. If you’re really into “me” time or time with your wife, you’ll need to be prepared to see that significantly reduced.
I think, in general, the meatheads are more a product of their environment than their genetics. You would be able to help influence that development quite a bit.
On finances, they’re not very expensive at first. First few years they don’t eat much and you get so many clothing/gear hand me downs and gifts from people. Diapers are a sunk cost you have to factor into your budget.
It’s when they get older, when you start enrolling them in classes, daycare, trips get more expensive when you have to pay for the extra seat. But I view that all as a necessary investment to help prevent the meathead scenario.
The fear of dying during birth, I think most women have it in the back of their mind. But you have to understand that in our current level of medical care, those chances are so small. Most people have their kids in hospitals, where the available resources to prevent that type of outcome is some of the best in the world. The stats support the safety of it.
Some people opt to do it at home, etc. Still relatively safe, but I would definitely suggest the clinical environment over home just for the added safety vs reduced comfort trade off.
Thanks for the thoughtful reply. Any regrets on your part? How many and how old are yours?
Also, if we had a kid say today, 9 months from now will hospitals be overwhelmed with Corona and unable to deliver babies? I haven’t read or researched anything on that. Maybe I should. I know they are separate divisions, but I wonder if resources get pooled should this thing come back in the Fall. Maybe baby beds are used for dying people. Is this unreasonable? Also just being in a hospital come Fall with this thing possible coming back…
Mine will turn 5 and 7 in July. I don’t think a hospital would reduce L&D capacity to increase ICU/Inpatient capacity, although I also wouldn’t have predicted ICU capacity would be getting stretched about 2 months ago.
If anything, I could see capacity stretched in 9 months just due to a possible quarantine baby boom. But they would have 6 months to prep for that since they would know pretty much exactly how many people are pregnant and their estimated due dates. Maybe see how things go in July/August with medical facilities. If the are beyond the curve and operating as normal, then maybe you could try planning for an early summer baby.
It’s a good time for kids anyway. The weather is nice so you don’t have to bundle them as much in the early months. And birthdays can be held outdoors in your back yard or a park. Much cheaper than renting an indoor play gym.
No regrets on my part. But I knew I wanted to be a dad for quite a few years before having kids, so regret doesn’t even enter into my mind.
You had 3 different posts listing very practical issues and having children. It is all balanced and overcome by the overwhelming experience of having the helpless newborn steal your heart within minutes. Love is the great antidote to all of the fear and unknowns. We have 4 children, each quite different, no meatheads in the bunch, but all 4 are loved and we are so blessed by them and what they each add to our family.
Life decisions will be impacted by children, especially “me-time”. This is the best result of having children in my estimation. Your purpose and focus of life shifts away from “me, myself, and I” for good reason and you’ll be a better husband, father, man because of this shift.
While you are considering the short-term practical consequences of having vs not having, also consider the long terem consequences of no children: Who will help you as you age? What about grandchildren in your later years? Who do you pass on your wisdom of life to, wealth to? What if your are 85 and have no fond memories of a family and children to reflect upon? If you are ok without these things and having children is simply a practical decision, then wait.
Kids completely change your life! It’s no longer about you, it’s about them now.
My kids are 36, 31 & 25 (boy-girl-boy). What treasures. Also, what pains in the ass!
When the oldest was about 16 the (now ex) wife decided she couldn’t be a mom any more and took off. I remember always thinking there was something wrong with a woman who was a single parent … until I became one. Dramatically changed my thinking!
I have 2 kids, both girls. 11 & 21 years old. My oldest is this quiet timid thing, that gets her feelings hurt really easy. Only regrets with her is her mom. Started doing meth and heroin after she was born. She chose her dope over me and my girl. It took around 5 grand in attorney fees to get divorced and get full custody. My youngest is polarr opposite outgoing and not afraid to challenge me on anything & I love it. She’s got her own opinion and is willing to debate on if it is right or not. Financially the youngest has been more expensive (not counting the attorney stuff). Everything got more expensive in the 10yrs between them. I wouldn’t trade either of them for anything. No regrets here!
It’s been a fun ride so far, daughter just hit 4 months last week. Before lock down we took her to our local watering holes (Mt. Jug and Legend Cider taproom) both kid friendly. My advice is, don’t change your social aspect of your life, just bring them along. They adapt and get used to noise and people quickly. Now we do lots of hikes in the forest behind my house with the lockdown. Also, golf on the TV is great for nap time, my guess is the announcers quiet commentary. You will enjoy it!
There’s endless stuff to say but my grandma said it best when I was a kid. When you have kids you become an ancestor. Priorities and activities shift dramatically from your own goals to your children’s and you are supporting their dreams for the next 20 years or so. It’s indescribable unless you do it yourself.
I mourn the lack of sleep and being stuck in quarentine with a 2 and 4 year old is insanity inducing.
One other thing, if you’re OCD about having a tidy/clean household, you’ll need to let that go. It’s nearly impossible to keep a house clean unless you have a 3rd adult in the mix to help split the duties. I’m jealous of people with housekeepers. I spend so much time sweeping/doing dishes/folding laundry, and there’s always more to be done. Kids are messy and don’t give a damn that you just cleaned a room and put all of the toys away. Within an hour, it will all be undone.
On the plus side, we’ve made friends with a ton of new people in our neighborhood who we didn’t even know lived near us 4 years ago. Most families in our area have been really cool people to hang with. Hopefully you don’t live in a neighborhood full of meathead families.
Thanks everyone. Don’t want to clog up the thread thanking everyone, but appreciate them all and giving the thumbs up.
Do it angry. It is rewarding, aggravating, wonderful, and at times very worrisome. But that is life in general. Your an intelligent guy and im guessing so is your lady so you wont have biff unless you let it happen. I have 2 stepsons ages 40 and 35 as well as a 30 year old daughter my wife and i had together. Its been a roller coaster ride at times but honestly i think they helped keep me focused, if that makes sense. And being a grandparent is great and something to look forward to.
It was a surprising to find out my wife was pregnant but not really. It was shocking to find out our first round was twins. After about a week of doom inducing panic looking at the financials of having twins I manned the fuck up because I was soon going to be responsible for 2 human lives. It definitely changes your prospective on just about everything you do. You’ll spend the first year pretty high strung, nervous about every cough, choke, crying episode etc. I was and still am. Once they’re mobil you’ll spend most of your time keeping them from killing themselves in various ways. Then they start to talk, and they don’t shut up. You’ll hear some of the dumbest shit you’ve ever heard in your life come out of them, It will be the best comedy ever. My girls are 8 now and we added another girl to the herd 2 years ago.
Overall it’s been pretty fun, you get to see little people grow up and learn things about life you take for granted.
The financial side, yes they are expensive. The birth is the biggest hit. If you have insurance, call them and your gals obgyn and you can get a quote on the costs. Our twins cost us $6000 out of pocket. Some don’t know this, each baby has it’s own set of doctors and nurses during the birth. So you’re paying double right off the top. Our 2yo cost us $7500 out of pocket. We had them all at Corvallis with the same doctor and same insurance.
Clothing and feeding them is easy. If your lady is a shopper like mine she’ll find deals on all sorts of clothing, diapers, baby food.
My wife couldn’t breast feed so we had to buy formula which is expensive. But we also got cases of formula from our pediatrician.
Dang, I guess I didn’t factor in the birthing/hospital costs.
Depending on your insurance coverage, I see how it could start out pretty expensive.
I’m fortunate with my work/benefits package, each kid cost me a $100 copay and that was it. And each birth included a 3-5 day hospital stay covered by that same copay.
But I think my experience is by far more the exception than the rule.
The total bill for the twins was $90,000. I forgot to mention she had a c section that’s were the price came from. We had to stay in the hospital for 7 day. Both had jaundice and weren’t gaining weight partially because me wife couldn’t feed them enough with breast milk. So we supplemented with formula. I’m thankful the insurance company covered as much as they did on that one. But they definitely got some money back on #3. Again that was a c section also and in 6 years time the price had quadrupled for the same procedure.
Goin’ pretty deep, with that question, Angry, and you’ve already gotten many good responses. I’ve never regretted having our one child, though I was never the chief care-taker when he was little and, before that, having to carry him for nine months or give birth. But that said, I’m confident in stipulating my wife feels the same way.
What I’ve learned is that with a child, life gets a lot more vivid. Suddenly, a lot more is at stake. The “highs” are higher, and the heartbreaks are deeper. Up above Nuclear made a great point, to wit: when you become a parent you become an ancestor.
I’d like to expand on that by paraphrasing an old African proverb: you don’t die until the last person living who remembers you alive is also dead. Let me provide a personal example. My grandfather was born in 1882. He died when I was 22, and the last time I saw him, when he was pushing 90, I had just graduated from college, having grown a mustache. I went over to my uncle’s place to visit him and I could see in his visage that something was afoot because it was only after I got closer and started talking to him that he realized it was me. Because of the new mustache, which he had never seen me wearing before, he thought he was seeing the ghost of his father in law back in the old country. Imagine that. I resembled a man who had probably been born around 1860, or maybe earlier. That’s just one way of looking at the proverb. So, here’s the bottom line: nearly a century and half after he was born; fifty years after he died, my grandfather is still “alive.”” That’s what it is like to be an ancestor.
Two last comments: (1) I wouldn’t be a Beaver fan (or hounding people on this site about Smith going for it on 4th down) if my son hadn’t gone to OSU. I’d be stuck rooting for the University of Idaho!
(2). The young gal next door is six months pregnant. We’re self isolating but whenever I see her outside I open the window and yell: “How’s that baby doing?!” The answer is always the same, thank God: “She’s doing fine!” Other than waking up every morning, it’s the highlight of my day.
Your grandfather was probably thinking, “if he brings brings up the fourth down shit again, I’m going to kill him.”
Gold, BeeG.
The best suggestion that I would’ve appreciated receiving is:
Do prepare physically & psychologically for four trimesters, not three.
While yes, there are “bad seeds” that you can’t do anything about, I think they are certainly the exception rather than the rule. I think in general how you raise your kids has a great deal to do with how they turn out. But it does take a lot of patience, love, support, example setting, etc, so don’t dive in unless you’re all in.
Edit: I’m basing the above comments on helping to raise our three boys (now 57, 53, 47) — actually they have blown me away in terms of what good parents they have been for the 8 grandchildren — two of whom have children of their own and seem to be a good parenting job as well.
My son turned five last month. Everybody else summed it up pretty good regarding money and time. As a father you will negotiate selfish/risky moves versus those that are best/safe for the family. I sold my motorcycle, bought a bigger house, and pay 10k a year to send our kid to a good Montessori school. Initially, there will be a tug of war between you and your wife as to boundaries, morals, and ethics. I look forward to getting my bass guitars out this year, haven’t played in like 4 years.
I have 13 and 17-year-old boys. My wife chose to stay at home, so it made the early years much easier for me as I had a job that required a lot of travel. They’re both fairly athletic, so the days are filled with sports (up until three weeks ago). That can get expensive. The 17-year-old is a good student but has definitely lost some of his “sweetness” the last two years. The 13-year-old has been easy, smart and happy go lucky with a kind heart. We waited 10 years before having children and I think that has worked well for us.
Your hot, Mormon wife is quite fertile!
By Mormon standards 2 kids is a micro family.
We are not Mormon. My wife was raised in that faith but has not practiced for thirty years.
Costco online has TP if anyone needs some. Max 1 pack.
Also eggs and flour in stock. Might depend on your area.
Bleah. OregonLive with an article on Ducks WBB; “Title or not, champions for us all.” Saw the link, didn’t read it, don’t want to lose my breakfast…wonder if they’ll declare themselves champs and make their own rings like thar Central Florida(?) football team did…
They do not want to give that up. Trying to make us believe they were national champions. They are trying to sell some crappy $25 commemorative book on the season also.
They handled us pretty easily both times and Sabrina, on her worst day (Kobe’s death) still didn’t waiver. Grow up
“Biffs” just don’t pop out. Parenting, I believe, largely determines the outcome. We have been fortunate in that our three, 45, 43 and 40 are all thriving as adults. We didn’t have any “failure to launch” 28 year old basement dwellers. All college educated, with no student debt, thanks to mom and dad and a D1 athletic scholarship for one.
My father escaped the dust bowl and depression via WW2 and the subsequent GI Bill. Without the war he would have probably worked in a small town grocery store in North Dakota. His older brother had already claimed the family farm. After the war he graduated from U of Minnesota, in 2.5 calendar years, married and relocated to Portland to enter into the emerging computer industry. From day one, with him, it was never if you go to college but where. I was also fortunate that he paid every single penny of my four years. Summer work went towards clothes, car repairs and beer.
We impressed that same notion of higher education on our kids. When the youngest, our daughter, asked if we would pay for a high school graduation trip to Mexico we told her no. We explained that she hadn’t earned a trip any where for achieving a minimum expectation that qualified her to work at McDonalds.
Don’t be afraid of the world into which little Angry will emerge. It will be his/her reality to deal with. That concern was common during my childhood in the 50’s when we were afraid the Russians were going to attack any day. We had air raid drills in elementary school and all knew where the nearest fallout shelter was. Do your best to develop them into adults that can compete and thrive.
On another note. We never really sweated the whole grade thing. As long as they were in the 3+ area we didn’t bother them. We were more concerned with how they were socially adapting. Were they good, generous people? Were they surrounding themselves with good kids. Athletics helped as all three were three sport high school athletes.
PS: Keep a good thought for medical professionals. Our oldest is an MD whose skill set involves intubation. He is putting in twelve hour shifts at the local hospital. His mom and I are, of course, concerned but he assures that he is confident with PPE he is wearing. It just adds a level of concern as we weather this situation. As a parent the concern never ends the parameters just get bigger.
I share a lot of those comments, bonehead. Remember those drop drills in the 50’s, it seems it never is a “good” time to bring kids into the world.
As for angry’s concern about having a Biff, there is a lot of truth in Cat Stevens/Harry Chapin “Cats in the Cradle”. Good and bad, they do seem to turn out “a lot like you”. Well, a lot like you and their Mom.
My experience is that parenthood brought me closer to my wife than anything I’d ever imagined, especially being in the delivery room. Highly recommended.
Every child is different, responds differently, and you’ll never have all the answers. Love conquers so much, and I think you’ll find love for a child comes pretty easy.
Angry- regarding concerns about pregnancy danger, two women that I’m close to have had multiple elevated-risk pregnancies (short hospital stays, frequent doctor visits for monitoring, hyperemesis, etc.) and they’ve said the same thing: even with the stress and pain, being pregnant and growing a person inside of them, feeling them move, etc. was one of the most amazing things they’ve ever experienced and they would still go through with.
Regarding sleep concerns- I highly recommend the “Cry it Out” method (I suspect 50 years ago this would have just been considered ‘how it’s always done’ rather than a special method.) We have friends that have done this and friends that haven’t, and the ones that have sleep better and seem to be enjoying the benefits that come along with it. It’s a rough few weeks when the kid is acclimating, but the months and months of solid sleep that come after are worth it.
Wasn’t supposed to be a reply…
I have a 14 year old son. He excels in three sports, playing on all the Future Raider teams here in Corvallis. Next year, he’ll be at Crescent Valley. He is a good student, but aside from that his teachers tell me that he is a “good guy”, a popular kid who everyone wants to befriend, yet he goes out of his way to acknowledge and befriend the less popular. He and I go to all the Beaver games together, including biking to football because of traffic. We hunt and fish together and I don’t hesitate to say my son is my best friend and a constant source of pride. Since my Uber business crashed he’s partnered with me to Doordash here in Corvallis. I drive, he delivers and gets 1/3 of our pay plus all the tips. It’s a blast.
I’m an older father, 63 years old and retired, so I can afford to revolve my life around my son. It’s not as easy for a younger father, having to go to work and worry about things like paying bills and buying food, but it is very much worth it. I know people who chose not to have children and most of them regret it and will take that regret to the grave.
My advice to you and your lady Angry would be to have a family. You’re whole life will change, you won’t believe how much you can love something, and although there are challenges, if done right, the rewards of fatherhood are immense. Otherwise, what’s the whole point of being here? To live a life out in selfish self indulgence? Get yours, then just check out?
Some very thoughtful posts in this, a very good thread. I had no idea Pettibonehead was my age.
Not the same age. Old enough to be your big, big brother.
I got a thumbs down? Damn… come out the weeds you yeller cur, identify yourself!
That’s odd. I read a study where out of 100,000 anonymous people 70% said they regret having kids or would have at least waited. You could argue the point that having kids is selfish. There are kids that need to be adopted, overpopulation, and the planet is slowly dying. What’s the planet going to look like for them?
at this point maybe the human race could use a little insurance
Man, this thread has been fantastic. So many great thoughts that I can echo from my own personal experience (three boys: 7, 4, and 2). This has been the perfect argument against “stick to sports.”
Put a Beav on it! Or put it in a beav…
I agree with other posters. I have a few somewhat unique experiences.
I have 5 children (9, 8, 5, 5, and 2). It is the most rewarding and challenging thing in life.
The first has a rare genetic disorder that makes him severely autistic. He is barely verbal. There are alot of things we cannot do due to this. We love him and would not trade him, if we could. He is usually unable to communicate what he wants and we (the parents) have very limited conversations with him. This makes it challenging. It is worth it, but the ideal does not always happen. One needs to be aware of this.
The second child is very analytical like her father and we enjoy her.
The twins (boy and girl) are fun. The girl is usually very happy and smiley. She mostly has highs but the lows are more distressing with her. The boy is curious and loves to create. Just asked me to play legos.
The 2 year loves to laugh. She was premature and in NICU for over 3 months. There was great fear she would not survive, but she did. We feel blessed.
In the last pregnancy my wife spent 1.5 months in the hospital. She almost bled out in the c-section. They replaced her blood over 12 times.
The risk was my wife’s choice and it was and still is worth it to us.
Definitely an interesting topic. Not sure I agree with OldYeller’s comment “Otherwise what’s the point in being here?” My wife and I planned on having a family until she got breast cancer at 34. Chemo does awful things to reproductive systems. But my wife made it through and she’s 8 years cancer-free. Honestly we are very happy. We have 2 dogs who are our kids, and we spoil our nieces and nephews, but also help raise them right. They come and stay with us occasionally and we love it, but we also love the fact that we can send them home :) We have the best of both worlds. So although we intended on having kids, we don’t dwell on it or have any regrets. And we still have plenty of reason to “be here”.
Totally agree, many ways to have a full life.
we don’t dwell on it
Very wise, good for you.
Jd mclaughin, and Kai Murphy are in transfer portal
I didn’t watch any baseball this season. Is this a good or a bad thing?
Bad!
What’s in the water at George Fox? The ghost of Rueck?
After nine years and a 230-35 record at Fox, Michael Meek, in his first year at U of Portland, took a team picked to finish dead last to victory in the WCC conference championship tourney.
Those Quakers know how to hire.
Good News: the Gates/UW site updated their numbers late last night.
Now projected:
USA: total projected deaths: 81,766– 12,000 less than the April 1 projection. Peak day, 4/16.
Washington: total projected, 632–down 300. Peak day–TODAY, five days earlier than last projection
Oregon: total projected fatalities–171, half of last forecast. Peak day–4/21, two weeks earlier.
The fever is breaking, literally and figuratively. Gates presaged this with his remarks yesterday when asked if the WH forecast of 120-240k was realistic. He said it would come in lower than that and then last night his foundation’s web site confirmed it.
Stock market is up big today on these national figures and peak having passed in southern Europe. Washington state sending 400 vents to the national stockpile yesterday was also informed by this forecast.
Yeah you’d expect that with everyone staying inside – the problem is when everyone goes out…
Looking at you, Hong Kong and South Korea
Cuomo just ripped the “mayors” [sic] of New York for not enforcing the distancing ban. Of course, he’s only referring to DeBlasio, but exercises discretion by not naming him, a lesson Trump could learn. Cuomo’s press conferences are great TV. I love the guy. Just doubled the fine for not distancing. Of course, the media keep asking him the same dumb or sensational questions all the time, just like they do Trump. The latest: “are people getting buried in public parks?” As big a problem as we have with political leadership in this country, we have a bigger one in the quality of journalism school product. Not that I’m naming any names there, of course. This is a kinder, gentler thread.
This is a kinder, gentler thread.
The public parks question was referring to a message string this morning by the New York City Council Health Chair, who said NYC is going to prepare to use a NYC park as a temporary burial site, if needed. As a means to orderly store bodies if they begin to pile up at a higher capacity than they can handle in morgues, etc.
But as people started freaking out, he clarified and said they were only preparing to do that if it becomes necessary. Currently things are not trending in that direction. Media should have already known about this clarification though. But I guess it’s easier to sell the headline when it says bodies will be buried in your local park.
Secondary reinfections both within US population (due to ppl currently refusing to heed guidelines, warmer weather encouraging ppl to be less restrictive on their movement, etc) as well as overseas flights/repatriation w/ no consistently enforced policy in place at present, will be of concern.
FDA approved first antibody test over the weekend. With testing it seems at least a skeleton economy could restart and slowly snowball from there as more testing comes online and proof of herd immunity is made.
Link?
I’m really interested in getting tested. Probably not going to be readily available in oregon as early as other states, I suspect.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/fda-authorizes-new-antibody-test-for-coronavirus-washington-state-says-priority-on-expanding-swab-tests/
Guess it was Thursday.
It was also posted here Thursday.
How about some incredible, older (20+ years) movies (that aren’t The Godfather)?
Manchurian Candidate
All the President’s Men (maybe my favorite of all time)
Oxbow Incident
12 Angry Men
Network
Dead Poet’s Society
Dog Day Afternoon
Glenn Gary Glenn Ross
Rushmore
Whatcha got?
The one who flew over the cuckoo’s nest
Old Eastwood westerns
Citizen cane
A few good men
A time to kill
The rainmaker
Philadelphia
Nice ones. Cuckoo’s Nest…ugh..so powerful/depressing.
Kane is awesome, but it drags a bit with the opera girl. Great twist makes it worth it.
Yes very depressing. Love the network one of my favorites.
I’ve never seen the oxbow incident or Rushmore. I’m going to have to check them out. I’ve been on a big court movie kick and 12 angry men was one of them.
Johnny Dangerously.
Nobody considers it a great, and it’s a comedy. But I think it’s hilarious. Basically the NY Mafia genre getting the Airplane/Top Secret treatment. Michael Keaton is the star. Joe Piscopo plays a great villain. Peter Boyle, Dom Deluise, Danny Devito, Dick Butkus all have roles. One of the first movies to get a PG13 rating.
Beer. With noodles!
It’s her Thyroid Johnny….I can’t find it. We’re going to need to do a Thyroid Search.
I didnt realize the same director made Fast Times at Ridgemont High, Amy Heckerling.
Watched Groundhog Day the other night with my wife, since she had never seen it.
I remembered really liking it back in the 90’s, when I last saw it.
It’s still a clever idea, but now seeing it as an adult, the tone of the movie has this overall rapey vibe going on. He basically spends most of his time trying to trick women into sleeping with him. Oh, and he tries to commit suicide over and over. Comedy gold!
Also, Chris Elliot has barely aged since that movie.
Dances with wolves
Any Eastwood westerns also
Schindler’s list
Reservoir dogs
Hud
Alien
Once upon a time in the west
One flew over the cuckoo’s nest
Speaking of the Godfather, how about anything with John Cazale.
He was only in 5 films before he died, all of them nominated for best picture Oscars and 3 of them won it.
Godfather
Godfather 2
The Conversation
Dog Day Afternoon
The Deer Hunter
The Deer Hunter is maybe the most disturbing movie I’ve ever seen. The Conversation always gets high praise, but I just thought it was okay. I had Dog Day on my list.
Forgot Deer Hunter and also Cool Hand Luke
The wedding scene is way too long…
Shane, High Noon, Dr. Strangelove.
70s was a great era for films. Maybe the best.
1962 was the best film year ever:
How the West was Won
Dr. No
To Kill a Mockingbird
Lolita
Lawrence of Arabia
Gypsy
Whatever Happened to Baby Jane
The Man Who Shot Liberty Valence
Manchurian Candidate
Mutiny on the Bounty
The Loneliness of the Long Distance Runner
Birdman of Alcatraz
(case closed)
A clockwork orange
Space odyssey
The Man From Snowy River
Watched this movie as a kid….love it!
Huh, appears Jack’s second favorite POTUS actually was ahead of the pandemic curve
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/george-bush-2005-wait-pandemic-late-prepare/story?id=69979013
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29001333/tom-brady-jj-watt-adrian-peterson-unanimous-picks-all-decade-team
Hekker member of the all decade team
Looks like in China over weekend tourist sites were packed; one park reaching its 20K/day capacity – at 7:48 am. Lockdown relaxing there. Seems crazy to pack areas w/crowds like that.
Speaking of movies, a new Hitchcock?
Hey thanks DB for that donation today!
I take it as a sign people are appreciating some other high quality conversations besides sports.
Gold is exhibiting more fascinating behavior. Can’t find it under $1950 (paypal or credit card…with a check you can find $1850) anywhere, yet spot is $1665.
Hope you guys got a little. 1/10oz coins are still affordable. 5% of entire wealth is all you need in a hyperinflation, to retain purchasing power, by historical metrics. Gold futures are into contango with prices higher for the future. This is back to normal. Nothing else is very normal unless the premiums are just reflecting shortage, but what doesn’t make sense about that is why a miner would sell at spot knowing (a) futures are $50 higher and (b) there’s a huge shortage and dealers are selling up to 2k on some sites. I’m not sure — anyone know what is up? Dollar is going to get annihilated within the next few years.
Silver super cheap spot…but again, ~$30 is the real price. Still not a bad price given the issues.
Physical markets are dislocated because the refiners in Switzerland were closed and it’s been very difficult to move physical product around given the quarantine measures. There’s not a true shortage, just supply chain difficulties. This is a temporary phenomenon that will eventually correct.
Dealers selling at 2k doesn’t impact miners, who are mostly not producing a refined, finished product.
I’m not sure.
I think Brent Johnson’s milkshake theory is playing out…dollar has been very strong, yet gold also strong. Very odd. Seems more the smart money who doesn’t need the dollars sees the writing on the wall and debtors who need dollars are trying to get them.
gold took a recent hit because, almost counterintuitively, it can be a liquid asset when you need to cover margin calls.
Yes, but what does that have to do with the disconnect between spot and price on the street for physical.
I think it is one of two things. What DE said above and it’s just mines being shut down, or something is breaking on the Comex — this is way more interesting. There are 100oz of paper gold contracts traded for every 1oz of physical on the Comex. That’s a 100x move if everyone demands delivery at once. It might be a mix of the two. Either way, it’s something to keep an eye on. I’m somewhat neutral (60% bullish, 40% bearish) gold in the short-term because the dollar is going to gain strength in the next stock move down. Another interesting bit is the dollar and gold both moved up today. Pretty rare. Something (aka everything) is breaking. These things happen slowly, luckily…time to position.
Did somebody say gold… let me tell you a story; one that the importance of has never been lost on me. One of my customers was a BOA manager at a branch in a small town in SW Washington. She told me that one day an older lady had come in and wanted to see her safety deposit box, so my customer set her up in the room and left her to do her business. A few minutes later, she heard a crash and muffled cry come from the safety deposit box room. My customer went in to see what had happened and when she got in there, she saw dozens of gold ingots and gold coins scattered all over the floor. She bent down to help the lady clean up the gold and place it back into the box. The older women said that she and her husband were Jewish and had lived in Germany during the ’30’s. As the situation in the country deteriorated, they made a decision to leave and come to the US, but before they did, they sold off all their possessions and converted them to gold, which they were able to get out of the country and bring it with them.
The lady went on to say that all the members of both her and her husbands families never made it out of the concentration camps. She also said that her kids had no idea about the gold hoard they had in the safety deposit box, as they felt extremely guilty about surviving the Holocaust while so many of their family didn’t.
That box wasn’t stuffed with stock certificates or cash – it contained something tangible, that is considered real wealth. This is going to be something we all will learn here in the very near future.
Nice. I have heard the inverse, too, where people hid cash in their walls only to have it all go worthless on them. Going to happen to a lot of people; I hope not Beavs who read this site.
Nah I’ll fool them by replacing all cash with debt! Might even print my own money, seems all the rage these days.
Well that brings up another good story, too. A few years back, one of our members from Walla Walla was acting as sub on the 395 bypass north of Spokane. Their job entailed demolition of about 9-10 homes down to the foundation that had been purchased to make way for the road. The homes were all older and probably built in the 20’s-30’s. At one of the homes, the excavator operator was tearing out a stairwell and struck a mason jar that was filled with ‘junk’ silver coins; when he hit the jar with the bucket, coins were scattered all over. He called the boss over and they searched around and found probably 5-6 more all packed with silver coins. Someone had been saving all their spare change in the jars and sticking them under a stairwell. Poor guy had probably forgotten about them. Wish I had been there to see that!
Boris Johnson in ICU.
From what I’m reading, very serious, and he’s likely to die. That’s going to shake up markets tomorrow as the reality of Trump not making it to Nov sets in.
Remember, this is the guy who said this:
https://twitter.com/JordanUhl/status/1247253028652097545
That’s pretty amazing how quickly things have progressed with him. From what I read, he hasn’t been put on a ventilator as of yet, but they have moved him to ICU as a precautionary measure. But maybe that’s old news and it has already worsened?
Crazy that this speech was just a month ago.
The reports he’s about to go on a ventilator are from Russian sites mostly and then random people on Twitter, so there’s that. But it does make sense — like why move him to ICU otherwise (even the mainstream is saying it’s “in the event he needs a ventilator he’ll be close to one”, which reading between the lines means to me he will need one soon). He deputized the foreign minister before going in…and he doesn’t look like the healthiest guy, either.
I’m reading from the BBC they moved him to ICU out of caution.
Yeah, as I said, the sources aren’t totally reliable being Russian.
But he’s now likely to go on a ventilator, so seems they were hours ahead.
https://twitter.com/NorbertElekes/status/1247262151271682054
Death rate is 80-90% once on one (this is what we just went through with my brother’s friend — they gave him 10% once on the ventilator). That guy was 47 in perfect health. What’s Johnson 60 something and fat? At this point I’m considering him dead, and if he survives it will be a miracle.
Somehow Russia was on this before anyone.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1246913887141867527
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-swiss-gold/update-1-swiss-gold-refiners-to-resume-work-easing-supply-constraints-idUSL8N2BT09A
The fundamentals are definitely there for gold to go up (like the 2% jump today), but the physical/futures dislocation is temporary. Two different topics.
My expectation is the dollar will be strong in the short-term and get crushed long-term. I think both outcomes are driving gold demand right now, depending on people’s investing timeline and currency exposure.
My expectation is the dollar will be strong in the short-term and get crushed long-term. I think both outcomes are driving gold demand right now, depending on people’s investing timeline and currency exposure.
Same.
So should I start panning for gold in my free time?
If you have the time and a sluice, I don’t see why not.
Am I missing something? Why won’t Trump make it to November?
Die of Corona maybe. If Johnson goes down the reality of all that uncertainty/possibility will set in.
His doctor said he is the most fit person ever though.
:D
Tremendous health.
Big big health. The best health ever.
Would need a massive hairway to ventilate.
Put a big beautiful heat-exhanger on that ventilator….remove all that hot air!….or use it to heat the hospital….
They’re now saying it is Russian disinformation.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1265857/Boris-johnson-coronavirus-health-update-prime-minister-intensive-care-COVID-19-uk-russia-p?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Still, it’s Trump’s fault!
And the very best words.
What is this cryptic comment to mean?
Probably meant as a reply US bg Trump’s words to make fun of him.
When he was campaigning he was bragging about his education and claimed “I have the very best words.” In Trump translation it meant he was trying to say he had a good vocabulary. I’m sure it’s in Google.
don’t you know you are not supposed to mock the afflicted?
If Johnson survives it will be interesting to see if/how his views change.
I was just checking some British press stuff, sounds like his condition has deteriorated further. They quoted someone who said if a person’s condition is getting worse after 10 days, they have about a 50/50 chance of surviving. I think Johnson is about 11 days in or so.
From what to what? I assume he was a Thatcherite early on, but his views had become more liberal. He knows that he has to come through to keep the former Labour votes he won in the last election. BTW, a book he wrote some time ago ‘The Dream of Rome’ is worth a read. It’s funny in lots of places while getting across Roman history that has (for me) been too boring to bother with. He compared what the Roman Empire attempted with the EU and then down the road pushed to get Britain out of the EU.
Angry:
His views regarding coronavirus? His political views?
The first shifted pretty significantly after their medical bloc assessed the herd immunity strategy that was originally purposed. >.>
All of it. Just curious to see if he personality is less of this Nationalistic/strongman type after he’s been humiliated by the virus.
Update from ICME: state of Washington reached it peak hospitalization 4 days ago. (Overnight it was projected to be today) First in the nation. Of course, the Governor closed schools for the rest of the semester.
I have to come back to this: remember the guy on this site who predicted the bent curve two weeks ago; or found the guy who predicted it? How many of you ridiculed that suggestion?
PS: The stock market, like the bettor’s line, is always a good place to check reality. Up Big today. Motley Fool is up with their first “all in” to equities call.
Posting this from an ER in Oregon City.
My mom beat covid19 but now her heart has decided to give her fits. Doctor sent her to ER and since my dad still has pneumonia, i’m the only one allowed inside to visit.
Mask on, lots of check points in place to check me out before i went in, to make sure i wasn’t symptomatic. Not the place i want to be hanging out right now.
Best of luck to you and family. Take care.
Best to you and your family. Hope she recovers quickly.
This is a potential complication, no?
https://www.dicardiology.com/article/cardiac-implications-novel-coronavirus
Pulling for her, you and your family.
Kind thoughts to you.
Thumbs up in the sense that I’m rooting for you guys…
Thanks. I think she’ll be fine, but will need to be put on a pacemaker. Waiting to hear from the cardiologist.
Just bad timing to have it come up now, rather than something like 2 months ago.
So did she have a positive covid test?
She never got one because they didnt have tests when she was sick last month. But she went through all of the tell tale signs and battled the pneumonia for close to a month. No coughing anymore though, so that all seems to be behind her.
Doctors have been pretty candid about how disappointed they have been with testing anyway. Saying they have patients who frequently show all of the signs of a Covid19 patient, but they test negative. They seem to have little faith in the accuracy of the tests.
She’ll be getting a pacemaker surgery tonight and back home 24 hours later. Should be pretty quick and easy.
I’m wondering if some people just have the flu? I mean we’ve had 280000 hospitalized patients and 16000 deaths this year from the flu. It’s not like covid showed up and the flu just stopped. Although covid is outpacing it, the flu is still here.
Seems obvious that the actual number of cases/infections is way higher than the reported number. I’m curious by how much – 10x a decent guess?
Up to 50% of those infected are asymptomatic
People displaying mild symptoms are often not tested- testing protocols sound like they vary wildly location to location and day to day, but it sounds like in many cases the only people tested are the ones sick enough to need hospitalization. Otherwise they say their advice won’t change depending on the test outcome- go home and isolate.
False negatives per NiceBeav?
My speculation a couple weeks back was 5-10% of people already had it. I would push that number up even more. With how mild the symptoms are and how little testing is being done I wouldn’t be surprised by 100x the number of positive cases. I mean look at the geographical distribution of it, it is literally in every corner of the country. But this is all my speculation. I am still surprised no one has done more statistical modeling on this.
@ean: Heard a radio report that Stanford is testing for antibodies in Santa Clara, the beginning of the type study you mentioned. More and more, it seems, this virus is more widespread than thought; the Stanford study may prove to be an indicator…….next step seems to be learning how long antibodies may provide immunity.
Hope nicebeavs mom returns home according to schedule and puts this behind her for good.
Alex, I don’t think the asymptomatic number is that high. I’ve seen guesses as high as 10% but most were lower. Ofcourse we won’t truly know the numbers unless every American is given an antibody test. And that won’t happen.
What’s going to happen is modeling with those who showed signs but not enough for a covid test but will end up getting antibody tests. We’ll also see an R0 that’s over 3.
Agree with the above sentiment, buddy.
Thanks for the kind thoughts everybody.
Spent last night transferring from one hospital to another, so most of the evening was spent sitting and waiting.
Lots of time to watch her vitals go up and down. Heart rate would hover around 60-70 for a period, and then suddenly dip down to 35-41 range. But overall she remained in good spirits. Likely an underlying condition (they called it heart block) where her lower ventricles aren’t pumping blood in sync with the upper chambers(or something like that). Something that she has had symptoms of in the past but ignored, because she’s stubborn. But since it is a little worse now, it was impossible to ignore.
They decided to put off the pacemaker surgery till this morning, so it’s currently happening. Not a terribly big procedure. She will get local anesthetic and some drugs but be awake throughout. If all goes well, she could go home this evening. Or could stay 1 extra day for monitoring.
This OregonLive headline is hilarious:
“Sabrina Ionescu sneaker endorsement decision down to Nike, Under Armour and Puma”
We all know, so does she. That headline is to keep the feds off her.
hilarious?
Well, she’ll be laughing all the way to the bank!
Pouting all the way to the bank?
You’re the only pouter here
Why is that even considered news?
Why write about beaver sports at all? They are far less successful. Why are they news? See how that works?
Angy, check this out: https://www.thedailybeast.com/oan-trumps-new-favorite-channel-employs-kremlin-paid-journalist?fbclid=IwAR2a0Byu9jBOFg39SfJKqp9Fwf-tD9y-WAhjy_hpIKqyg_au30vs1eRb_wY
April should be declared…..National Bad Hair Day Month.
Speaking for yourself?
Come to think of it, I have never seen BeeG without a hat on.
Yes. Several friends tell me their wives are getting freaked about when they will be able to get their hair done.
IHME update over night:
National peak hospital resources usage (beds, ICU beds, ventilators) is April 15
Peak fatality day, April 16, 3130
Total projected fatality, 81, 766 (-2000 from yesterday’s forecast)
Oregon:
Peak resource use: April 21
Projected fatalities: 171
Washington:
Peak resource use: April 2 (five days ago)
Peak fatality day: March 27 (10 days ago)
Flat curve: April 31.
And yet, schools closed for the rest of the year. don’t get that.
The website has updated its format so that you now track their projections over time. For example, what they were projecting a month ago.
Re: school closure (including businesses) despite improvements in modeling.
Until there is accurate, timely testing widely available — which we are not at nationally, let alone in state — prudence is best?
PS. Market up big again today. This is like the smart money in Vegas coming in late. The wise guys sense the turn even if the political and punditry classes don’t.
I bought at the lows 30% down; been selling to these fools the past two days. It’s awesome. Looking to short if the VIX drops a bit more. My take is that CNBC hearded in some sheep, and the smart money is sheering them.
I get the bullish case, though – it being sheer liquidity driven. If you’re going long here you’re betting on momentum and the FED blowing a bigger bubble. That is possible, hence I keep some $ in. But on a fundamental basis stocks are still 40% overvalued. A quick way to know this is the “buffet indicator”. This chart:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qLC
When .80 it’s fair value. Below, cheap. Above, expensive. We are very expensive (most ever actually). Adjusting for low interest rates that gives you at best 30% overvaluation still. I’d argue stocks are more expensive than pre-March because prices are only down 15% and earnings will be down way more than that. Dividend cuts coming, too…
it could be another dead cat bounce, but I don’t think so. I took some off the table at the first of the year for separate reasons, and harvested some recent losses and a couple long-lasting dogs I don’t want to bother with any more because I need a write off to balance some old bonds we’re redeeming to build cash reserves. (should be some good prices on yachts this summer.)
Bottom line is stocks are more expensive, so anyone buying is relying on flow and momentum/sentiment not fundamentals. I guess that can work if the FED keeps buying everything, but that’s all it would be, a bigger bubble. The math, fundamentals says way more downside. Bottoms in crashes like this one generally take 2 years to find not 2 weeks.
You always say stocks ate priced on earnings but everything I read is the are based on future earnings or forward earnings. A 6 month supply chain disruption and 2 or 3 months of reduced demand isn’t going to have a real big impact on future earnings. In general though I agree that Trump’s liberal fiscal policy and promotion of loose monetary policy is going to create another bubble.
Yes, forward p/e. That’s what I’m talking about. Trailing p/e means almost zero. How can you know a forward p/e without knowing the “e”? You can’t. So we’re seeing a lot of guesses right now. What we do know: Stocks were 40% overvalued before corona, the 35% drop got them near fair value based on trailing P/Es, but they have recovered much of that are now down something like 15%. So on the old “e” numbers they’re overvalued 25% here. Okay, so we have a net 15% drop in price, and we have an unknown drop in earnings — I’m assuming more than 15% in Q2. By that math, they’re actually more expensive now than before this “crash”. The only way that’s false is if earnings remain the same, which is pretty much impossible.
There is a lot of money piling in due to liquidity/flow and people obsessed with trying to find the absolute bottom. Sometimes this can take on momentum of it’s own and carry markets for days. We’re seeing that, and it makes some sense given stocks were down like 1k last week — just a recovery of that loss. If the market is still functioning as markets have in the past, they will get their face ripped off shortly. Mean reversion puts stocks at a minimum of 35% down from here, but probably closer to 40% downside based on the overall market to GDP ratios. At that point, you factor in low rates/zero interest and give them a premium because of that. So say 35 or even 30%. At 30% down from here I’d have a serious look. I bought the lows, and I’m selling those shares to “dumb money” here, but keeping about 20% invested in the event I’m wrong. Something that might be wise to buy is investment grade corp debt since the FED has to buy that entire market. Could front run it. Some individual names are still attractive. But buying something like the SPY500 ETF is a face-melter, probably later this week.
Of course, you have central banks and governments doing everything they can to prevent mean reversion, so that’s the biggest deterrent of what needs to happen. It would be the only bullish argument with merit. Since I agree with that to some degree, I keep 20% in. The rest goes in a bond fund to collect (front run the FED) premiums.
What I would like is for anyone who thinks stocks are cheap to explain why. “They dropped 15% isn’t valid.” If you drop 15% from an overpricing of 40% you’re not cheap, you’re just less expensive. You’re 25% overvalued instead of 40%. Cheap is when you’re undervalued. The Wilshire chart above shows this precisely. .80 is fair. Look where we are. 1.25. It is insane valuation, and that was per-earnigns hit. So yeah, you buy here you’re banking on a larger bubble. Possible. But not great investing.
A 6 month supply chain disruption and 2 or 3 months of reduced demand isn’t going to have a real big impact on future earnings.
Why?
That’s exactly what it will have an impact on. It won’t have an impact on past earnings. You seem to be confusing the two.
I think I mixed up forward earnings with future earnings. I mean today’s disruption will have an impact on earnings 5 years from now but it could end up looking more like a speed bump than crashing into a wall. Forward earnings, meaning next quarter will be rough.
Here you go, man: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/050115/what-difference-between-forward-pe-and-trailing-pe.asp
Future earnings and forward p/e are pretty similar. The latter just considers price in the numerator to get the ratio. Forward earnings are fucked. People are using trailing p/e right now to claim stocks are cheap. They aren’t. They’re more expensive. Not sure how to make this more clear, but I will try one more time.
1. Item x is 40% overvalued. Say it’s selling for $1.4 and it’s true value is $1.
2. Now say it drops from $1.40 to $1.20.
Is it cheap? Simple yes or no.
Well it dropped nearly 15%. So many would think it’s on sale and cheap. Yet, if it’s true value is $1, then it’s still overpriced 20%. I don’t know any other way to explain the illusion of price that is happening right now other than that simple explanation.
This is the problem we’re having now due to the “e” being an unknown (all we know is that “e” is MUCH less due to corona). Thus with the nearly the same “p” (after this big upswing) and a much lower “e”, prices are actually more expensive now, despite the drop, than pre-corona.
I.e. if Stocks are down 15%, but earnings are down 50%, stocks are more expensive now than at their all time highs.
The problem is the average stock picker/investor is seeing the drop and thinking “oh wow cheap!”…no. Faulty reasoning. Now add to that debt is going to become more expensive for these companies right as earnings are dropping. This is why the FED is in there buying corp debt. Because it skyrocketed. If you have faith in the FED and think they’ll figure it out, I guess you can buy overpriced equity here and ride it out. If you think markets mean revert, you probably want to wait.
I see both sides. The FED flow/stimulus is bullish. But is this an economic problem? It’s not. It’s a medical problem with a demand shock. I don’t think providing liquidity fixes that problem. MMT/handing people checks might, so look for more of that. Market could be pricing that in, and that would be legit. Hyperinflation would explode stocks upward in nominal terms (though not in real terms/inflation adjusted). Everything else (i.e. the fundamentals) is pretty much bearish. I’ve never seen a bear market correct in two weeks and find a bottom. Literally takes almost 2 years every time once you enter a bear market. The 2008 housing bust didn’t hit bottom ’til 2011. For these reasons, I think 20% in equity and only the best names is the way to go. If stocks skyrocket you’ll still do alright, and you’re hedging downside and still getting a small return in bonds. I said in January market was exhibiting blow off top behavior — it blew. It wasn’t corona, really. This thing was going to blow either way (The Wilshire to GDP chart I linked above is the best and only you’d ever need as a novice to know whether stocks are cheap or expensive, and it was screaming most expensive ever). Corona just sped it up, and it makes the depths and lows likely deeper.
Say an industry that is essential and only gets paid on delivery of product under contract and is still delivering right now. That wouldnt effect earnings going forward would it?
Well so much for that.
That’s what we call the “go for it on 4th and 1” rally. ;)
we’ll see. :)
Boris Johnson being listed as “stable” and not on a ventilator this morning.
So was that report yesterday more Russian disinformation, honest mistake, etc? Speaking of movies and Russian disinformation, a movie worth checking out is “operation infektion”…
Probably selective hearing.
I agree with what I interpret as Angry’s skepticism about supply chain issues. That’s the main deal, and one of the few good things to come out of this is an enhanced understanding by the public about how supply chains work and why they are important. Masks? supply chain. Ventilators? supply chain? grocery store restocking? supply chain.
Here’s a true story. My father in law was a conservation district commissioner in Oregon. His board had a hearing on the advisability of allowing a dairy farm in Clatsop County on terrain that had potential environmental impacts. A woman testifies against allowing the dairy farm, saying “now that we have grocery stores we don’t need dairy farms any more.”
I see comparisons to H1N1 here and in the media fairly often. Usually it’s in context that the response to covid is over blown. Today we will pass the estimated death count of H1N1. While this isn’t really all that significant I want you to consider the difference in timeline and reponse.
1) H1N1 killed approximately 10,000 between April and November 2009. Covid has killed 12,500 since February.
2) Federal emergency was issued to release requirements of medicare/Medicaid and allow for emergency units to be setup in hot spots. Covid has received the largest stimulus and emergency funding in the history of the country and it’s not close.
3) CDC recommended closure of schools with a positive case for up to two weeks but later recended. 726 schools closed for 2 weeks.or less. Covid has shutdown the majority of schools on the planet aswell as large segments of jobs. Stay home orders are the norm everywhere.
So just by that short list despite the most aggreseive response to a virus in the history of the planet we are still looking at 30,000 dead Americans and 100,000 dead world wide with current projections through May. This is so much worse than the flu that comparing the two is just wrong.
H1N1 is a bad metric because it mostly came over the summer months. Had it showed up in the US by Oct or Nov of 08 it would have been far worse.
Comparing them is dumb, but in reality its the closest infection we have to covid in our generation making it a baseline for what’s going on now.
I just hopes this kills the anti-vaxxer movement. People want to compare this to the Flu which kills 30-60K per year, and the death rate is only 0.1%, but the death rate is only that low due to heard immunity, flu shots and when you get the flu you know you have it within a day or 2 not 10-14 days or never like covid. Among the elderly the death rate for flu is between 7-9% depending on the year.
you’d like to think so, Ack. Those folks are just one of many sub groups in our population who had taken the gains in modern medicine, sanitation, and civil society for granted
What I’ve noticed is that the more facts out there that disprove a certain viewpoint the more those people double down on their stupidity.
You’re leaving out that up to 575,000 people were killed by H1N1 worldwide including a number of children. Also the mortality rate for covid-19 will continue to go down as more testing is done. Plus the asymptomatic cases are likely to never be tested which would lower the mortality rate even further.
My point is despite drastic measures it’s still bad. What would have happened without them?
Sorry, I thought your point was that comparing covid-19 to the flu was wrong. The flu this season will kill close to 65,000 people and that’s with a vaccine available.
back to the supply chain: my sources tell me non-food trucking volumes are in free fall.
Matches our behavior. I think the only things we’ve purchased since Corona is food online and some garden/lawn supplies online.
And shitloads of toilet paper apparently.
Covid causing not only fiscal issues for athletic departments but the universities themselves. Enrollments are expected to drop in the fall. International students will have a lot of trouble enrolling or returning to school. That’s a big chunk of dollars there.
Small schools or any with existing fiscal issues are probably finished. OSU will take a hit but probably be ok. I think one or two more schools in Oregon will fail like Concordia. OSU could pick up a lot of those students.
this is a compelling take.
Goldman Sachs puts out a note Corporate profits not to return to prior levels until 2023. So much for this being the bottom and a V recovery…
Nobody knows. But that makes more sense than the CNBC cheerleaders saying we bottomed. As I said, bear markets are usually at least 2 years to bottom. This is going to take a while. Bear markets have some of the biggest upside head fakes. Be safe, Beavs. When stocks are actually cheap, I’ll give my opinion that they are cheap, if anyone wants that. Might be a while. Not advice, of course.
Goldman has also been the most bearish bank through COVID and is notorious for telling people to do the exact opposite of what they do, so…
Yeah true.
You think the fed is buying stocks via back channels?
It wouldn’t surprise me, but I also think a lot of big players are buying stocks now to protect against inflation. Long-dated corporate bonds are trash in a highly inflationary environment (that’s kind of the whole point to QE, only it’s just meant to benefit the government), and if the Fed is buying them all, it frees up cash that has to find a home with yield. QE is forcing yields down, which pushes money into stocks.
The Fed has other ways they can drive up stock prices without actually buying themselves.
I also read some speculation that the big up days were just a short squeeze. That makes sense with as violent as the crash was; I’m sure there were plenty of people shorting when the crash started.
I’ve read they’re taking equity as collateral from banks. Isn’t that just a way to circumvent that they can’t directly buy? Banks take money from the FED, buy stocks, give them back to the FED as collateral for some junk derivatives they want to leverage up on or close out…
If that’s happening, stocks might go to the moon. I’m unsure what to do here because they are 40% overvalued by all standard metrics, and yet if the FED is just going to buy them indirectly the sky is the limit.
I do think there was short-squeezing. Well, I know there was. There is data to show that.
That’s how I’ve felt about the market for the last several years. It’s overvalued, but it’s all about momentum now. Value means nothing anymore. I missed out on some of the broader market gains, but I also didn’t get killed over the last month. I’m in the same boat as you: not sure how to proceed from here.
My current plan: sit tight through the next month when earnings start to come out and judge from the fallout whether the market will actually react to fundamentals. I think a lot of stocks will knee-jerk down on bad earnings because of algos, then pop back up shortly after (many have been doing this the last few years anyway). There will probably be violent swings where you can make some nice trading profits in a short period of time. I have my list of high quality stuff I’m watching for the next few months.
I’m also watching specific junior gold stocks closely because non-producers have been sold off along with the producers that have suspended operations, despite basically no cash burn and their project NPV’s going up 50%. A few of these trades are already up 40-50% in a short time period.
Longer-term: the Fed will print forever. The taper talk was a red herring. They will follow the BOJ playbook now until it becomes impossible to do so. If you could print money forever and you judged your job performance from market movement, what would you do? There’s also no election risk anymore because Biden isn’t going to be seen as bearish as Sanders would have been.
The Nikkei might provide some clues. Each time the BOJ announced major new stimulus efforts, a sparked a 2-year bull run with 50% gains over each 2-year period. Once the stimulus wore off, it feel back down close to previous lows. That would suggest an S&P 2-year price target of ~3300 from here.
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DXJ?s=dxj
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2019/august/bank-japan-largest-asset-holder-major-central-banks
18,500 was the bottom.
so remember my recent comment about the retrograde quality of the modern press corps? So, some dim-witted reporter asks Birx about what’s going to happen to Washington, Oregon, and California when they are going to need the ventilators that they are sending to other states, seemingly not realizing that that those states aren’t going to need to those back because they have bent the curve. Idiocy is not limited to the White House.
Was it an OAN reporter because if it was, they are basically Trump TV so they’d be just as stupid.
So much for an apolitical thread. Nice while it lasted.
no, it wasn’t. I recognize her. This is a young guy. blond hair. an air head. Perhaps worse than the basic lack of competence is how most of the press tried to repudiate mere experimentation, in dire circumstances, under a doctor’s supervision (enough caveats?) use of that anti-malaria drug. Cuomo says something positive about it yesterday, the Democratic legislator from Michigan asks her doctor for it and recovers, and only then does the hysteria die down, if, in fact it has.
Sorry, OOBie, I just can’t abide some of this nonsense.
No worries, buddy. I also have a hard time ignoring some of the knee-jerk nonsense.
Check out John Oliver’s piece on OAN which was on HBO last Sunday. Horrifying, they make Fox look “fair and balanced.” Ha-ha-ha.
Because nothing says journalism like a story from John Oliver.
Just saying.. check it out. I had never heard of OAN and learned something. Many comedians provide active social commentary. The Smothers Brothers were a part of bringing down LBJ in 68.
Had been noticing the OAN softball/leading questions going on throughout this Covid19 news cycle, even before the John Oliver segment. Every time, they’re seated back in the left corner of the room(maybe to make them easy to find and call on?) and every time the leading question feels staged, while the responder pretends to not know the question is coming. It’s poorly constructed theater designed for soundbites.
RIP John Prine
In spite of ourselves…
Oh, to live in New Zealand.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=jacinda+arden+video&atb=v177-4__&ia=videos&iax=videos&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DxMA6Gz82iiQ
If you’ve never been, visit when you can. Surreal landscapes, incredible trout fishing…I went quite a while ago, before all the Lord of the Rings movies, so I’m sure there was many more tourists after that.
Yes. We did, for 8 1/2 years in Christchurch on the Southern Island. Great years.
https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2020/04/oregon-state-junior-forward-payton-dastrup-leaves-program-announces-transfer-to-naias-benedictine-university.html
The monks will straighten him out.
NAIA is where his talent belongs. Lets be real. Now with Tinkle gone, the squad has 1 legit D1 prospect on the team
Anyone remember Michael Burry? The character Christian Sale played in the Big Short. (Another great movie for your lock-down list.) Anyway, yesterday he unloaded on Bloomberg News about the lock-down hysteria and, (he being DR. Burry) the ridiculous crusade against that malaria drug. Maybe Nuke or OOB can provide a link. I’m heading over to IMHE to see the overnight update.
The overnights from IHME:
National:
Peak use of facilities (beds, ICU beds, ventilators)–April 11 (moved up 4 days from yesterday)
Peak day for fatalities–April 12 (Sunday)
Here’s the big one: total projected fatalities: 60, 415, minus 23 k from yesterday. (At this rate total projected fatalities will be under 40,000 in a day or two).
How ridiculous are the prognosticators, including some on this site, about millions dying. How much crow do you think the talking heads on CNN will eat today. (Hint: none.)
It’s time to lift the lock downs.
The “experts” putting these models together are an absolute joke.
I disagree. It is our testing capacity that is the joke. The researches and modelers could be the best in the world and if they have crap data they are going to have a crap model.
Yep.
As we say in computer programming, “Garbage in, garbage out.”
To go from 2mil deaths, to 500,000, to 100,000, to 80,000, and now to 60,000 is TERRIBLE modeling. As new data comes in, yes your model is going to change….But not by 30x!!!!
For anyone who has experience in projections/modeling (me = 12+ years), there is zero excuse to be that far off. Especially when we’re using these models to dictate policy for this country.
Fox News being sued by Washington State group for all the deaths they caused via misinformation. Nice to see someone trying to hold them accountable. Gonna be hard to prove, and will get squashed in the SC with all the trump judges there. Still good.
how about someone suing the scaremongers for the 1.960 million deaths that wont’ occur but which cost tens of millions their jobs and many a person a lot of their life savings?
The governors who shut down their States based on horrific scientific data? I don’t see that as a winner, either.
or, as in the case of Washington state, continue to shut down their state even in the face of vastly reconfigured data.
Maybe they have data you’re not seeing. Or maybe they’re making the decision to be conservative and error on the side of caution and not overwhelm their resources again. It’s their call and none of us know the real data; my hunch is people higher up have more access to real time and more accurate data than the plebes.
“Maybe they have data you’re not seeing”
And maybe niner learned much from observing weeks of practice; maybe he had inside info when he made punt decisions?
Is this the first time angry has deferred to “higher ups”?
Just askin’
Lol.
Well I don’t doubt Smith has more data than me. Not sure I ever doubted that. But his answers in the press conferences were just “we want to be aggressive”…that’s stupid. If you’re just being aggressive for the sake of it. He never mentioned or explained anything he saw in practice as the reason.
You guys are getting touchy. You have to realize as a firm moderate I backlash against whichever party is in power. When Dems were in I was bashing SJWs. This is just the plight of a moderate. You dislike both sides so you dislike even more who has the power. In the case of these Republicans currently in power, there are even more reasons than usual.
“The governors who shut down their states based on horrific scientific data?” Montana is a perfect case-in-point. Eastern Montana already has social isolation. This could have been done on a regional control basis. Petroleum County, Montana, had 494 people per 2010 census. Yet, the entire state is shut down/per Governor Bullock, who is a good guy. Northwest corner of Montana has had more highway deaths in a weekend than from coronavirus 2020 and some people who drive there are almost as big a threat. Who’s to know there might have been more but for the lockdown? It seems unreasonable that the same cv19 rules apply to Manhattan and Queens as to sparsely populated areas of the United States.
one size fits all. stupid. no nuance, no context. Apparently, Oregon has continued the dine-in prohibition indefinitely. This is insane. And to answer Angry above, Brown in Oregon and Inslee in Washington aren’t seeing any data we don’t know about. Inslee was the first to stipulate that his strictures were based on the IHME data. It’s just gotten to easy to continue banning stuff. Lastly, I can only speak for myself, but if being “touchy” means rebelling against irrationality then so be it. This was all supposed to be about metric based decision-making. But when the metrics don’t support the lock down it gets continued indefinitely.
Take it to the streets, WB, like in the old days. “I’m mad as hell, and I’m not going to stay inside anymore!”
It’s a good argument. But, Sparsely populated rural areas don’t have the hospital beds that the urban cities have. Rural mayors were pleading with urban people to stay away because of this….stay away from vacation homes and cabins….and to keep the spread from reaching their town
The argument that lives are being saved at the expense of jobs as a bad thing isn’t a very strong one. Who can put a number on an acceptable trade off?
Especially with bailouts intended to help soften the job losses and the job losses, although painful, being temporary in almost all cases.
The whole point in people staying home was because we didn’t have a plan in place to handle an event like this, so as a last case scenario we put in extreme measures to minimize loss of life. We’re finally starting to see some slowing in the growth of this thing which is a pretty good indicator those measures are doing what was intended.
Next time around, we will hopefully have learned from this experience and have a better plan in place than the current “let’s wing it” plan.
Agree 100%. I hate seeing what’s happening to our downtown and local businesses, and we have stress on our finances and we haven’t been sleeping great, but oh well. This is the cost of not being prepared as a Nation due to arrogance and just thinking it can’t happen to us. I think what we’re doing is correct in that you flatten the curve so people can get medical care, and then you go back to work. Seems a good compromise to me.
Most of the whining is from people who own stocks (CNBC is BRUTAL to watch!) and see their 401k getting decimated, but those were so overvalued and you should have cut way back when the blow off top was obvious in January. If you can’t spot a bubble after how many we’ve had there’s no hope. I fear we’re blowing another now with this 6 tril backstop…nothing is every allowed to correct to market value anymore. Bad bad news for when the final bubble (and my guess is this next one will be in the currency) pops.
Trump should have been on this sooner, I agree. We now know that US intel had a scope on this outbreak in NOVEMBER, not the mid-December cover story that the WHO concocted with the CCP. But it is becoming increasingly clear that much of the enthusiasm for the lock down strategy is that it had dual value. Yes, it would crimp the outbreak but it would also deprive Trump of his “the economy is doing great” argument. To quote Chuck Schumer, folks are going to reap the whirlwind from this.
Well anyone who believed the economy was doing great under Trump needed their head examined to begin with. A stock bubble that he blew bigger and the lowest unemployment ever due to millions of Uber drivers and Door-Dashers isn’t an economy.
You’re right about the stock side but there are a ton of jobs in my area looking for people to fill. I’ve said before, we have $30+ hour jobs with incredible retirement plans just waiting for people to fill them. But we either have pothead that can’t quit their habit or flakes not showing up for secondary interviews. It must be easier to drive for Uber and draw government assistance then to make $30 hour with great benefits on an honest days work. The population is trending to the lazy side.
Some slowing? How about a 98% reduction from the forecast just a few weeks ago.
I may be missing some of the conversation from the last day while i was away. What’s is 98% referring to?
The Fauci number of 100,000 estimated US deaths a week or so ago caught alot of people off guard. Up to that point, that number seemed unimaginable. We’re currently above 14k (14%) of that estimate. Yesterday the US saw it’s largest single day death total to date. That doesn’t mean it will remain the largest single day death count, time will tell these next few weeks. But that 14k number only goes up from here, not down.
There can be arguments for how these totals are counted and their accuracy. I get all of that. I’m just saying we’re currently at approximately 14% of the estimate announced by the Feds recently and growing. And we’re about 1 month into the very initial social distancing measures in this country.
And until the daily new cases starts going down and stays down for multiple weeks, the daily death count will continue to go up since there is a significant lag between when a person shows symptoms and when they die.
Jockitch, it’s a given that the rural areas have limited hospital facilities should someone acquire Co19. Imo, that still doesn’t require a massive lockdown of entire, sparsely populated regions of the United State’s huge landmass. Those same, small medical facilities probably don’t have neo-natal units, open-heart surgery, or dialysis services, either. (but they might do appendectomies)
Supreme Court?……….c’mon, angry, this case won’t come close.
Neither would a suit against the mayor of New York for inviting visitors from Asia to celebrate Lunar New Year there.
Isn’t the legal maxim, “you can sue anyone for anything”?
OOB–the voice of reason.
One thing I learned this week while being around the hospital in PDX, this would be a very bad time to have any problems with Appendicitis. Appendectomy is off the table right now as far as surgeries they will be performing during peak Covid19 times.
You will get treated with a heavy dose of antibiotics instead of an emergency Appendectomy. Only surgeries they will be performing, as one Cardiologist put it to me, are “ones that involve life or limb.”
Jeez. But appendicitis is deadly…
If the antibiotic treatment doesn’t work, then you’ll enter into the “life” category and receive surgery. It will also be very uncomfortable if you get to that stage. In the past the surgery would have been step 1.
A conundrum for sure; high doses of antibiotics do a number on the human immune system…..the same immune system that fights flu.
I guess the reasoning comes down to ventilator usage. If the procedure requires a ventilator, but isn’t a life or death situation, they aren’t performing it right now.
Agree your thoughts on the antibiotics route. Could lead to further complications down the road. Definitely not a situation I want to find myself in.
From 2 million + deaths to 60000. 60K is considered a bad flu year. Tomorrow it could be lower and that will not be a surprise. The stench of politics is all around this and by the way, screw the every day American. Watched Zeke Emanuel last night pushing for 18 month month lockdown . He is the architect of Obamacare and a Biden advisor. Not surprising I guess, considering he is the brother of Rham “dont let a crises go to waste” Emanuel.
I’ve seen it posted twice here in the past half hour. Where does the 2M number even come from?
Was there ever a US projection of 2M? At least a projection that anybody gave credibility to?
Back when Fauci gave out the 100K figure a week or 2 ago, he did say one of their models showed a number in the millions, but he also quickly discredited that number as the most extreme example that will never happen. Nobody was considering that model as showing a realistic outcome.
But maybe this 2M figure you’re mentioning is from a different source. I just don’t remember ever seeing it as a domestic projection that anybody gave any validity to.
For some reason people (BB comes to mind) kept saying he was saying 2m, when he was clearly saying that would never happen. I don’t know if people read a sensationalized headline and didn’t actually watch what he said? Or they just want to bash the guy for their own reasons. But he never said that, and in fact he said that was super unlikely.
Can we come to a consensus on this site that 2M domestic deaths was never thrown out as a reasonable projection?
Unless you have some evidence that it was?
I don’t see how throwing out outrageous examples helps or hurts anybody’s argument. It just adds noise and if anything, it softens the lower, more reasonable totals.
For some perspective of what 60k means. The Vietnam conflict claimed 58,220 American lives. Not to mention the psychological tolls it caused for survivors. The Vietnam conflict also stretched out over nearly 20 years.
Angry and NuclearBeaver both threw out numbers in the millions, Nuclear as recently as five days ago which was weeks into quarantine/social distancing life (i.e. not “nothing being done”).
It was silly then, and hasn’t aged any better.
Pretty sure I said millions of cases, not deaths, and around March 20th I said we’d hit 1 mil cases by 4/3. We hit it on 4/2.
Jay you might want to try reading my comments again or any of the other ones. I said no precautions taken and worst case over and over. Its an argument against people saying the precautions are over blown. Once again I ask, what do you think the result is with no precautions taken? You have never answered you just insult me.
Also, are we talking US or globally? Because a million deaths globally is very possible. We’re almost 1/10th there and that’s with shaky governments/numbers, and I’m not sure this thing is over as people want to believe. When people go outside numbers will spike again.
@justjay
Thank you for clearing that up.
I think something important to keep in mind is nuance and context.
Except in these cases, nuance isnt really even needed. Angry and Nuc have been pretty clear about the context of the figures they’ve provided.
And I don’t see any correlation between 2m and 60k, as it was mentioned above.
Both are numbers, but that’s about the only thing they have in relation to each other.
I threw some millions out there based on known mortality and 100% or 50% mortallity. People seem to have trouble reading because I also said that is only possible if nothing was done. Never said it was a probable outcome just realistic worst case scenerios.
Those numbers might have been possible if we didn’t stay inside. It will be interesting once things open up to see what happens. And it will be interesting to see what happens this Fall. People seem to think this is over/ending soon.
Exactly what I have said over and over again. I was literally just doing math for people so they didn’t have to. I guess some people are just allergic to projected alternate realities. Ill say it again BASED ON NO PRECAUTIONS TAKEN 50% infected, 2% mortality, US Population.
330,000,000 X 0.5 (# infected) X .02 (WHO mortality) = 3,300,000
It was the original Gates/UW web site forecast, about three weeks back. By the time Fauci and Birx touted the 240K tops number that site had already cut it’s initial forecast by 90%. Since then even that lower number has been cut to 60k. watch, tomorrow it will be 40-50k. When will you Cassandras on this site admit you bought into the hysteria?
The gates foundation takes into account precautions and cutting the R0. You can’t tout the projection and how smart you are and also say the precautions are over blown and call people hysteric.
precisely, Nuke. So when the mitigation works isn’t it time to adjust the prescription? I have no trouble with keeping the lid on until the end of this month but some in the media say this needs to keep up until December. The only purpose of that is to kill the economy so Trump can’t claim a rebound. That’s madness.
I think end of the month is a good time to look at local areas and slowly open up some things. I wouldn’t drop it all that’s for sure. As long as masking and social distancing are maintained, testing is up to par and there is resources for case tracking it can be okay. We should still limit travel for awhile to avoid reinfection.
Caution and being smart is the play imo. I think we are pretty much saying the same thing.
I don’t see any scenario where they close things down through december. To me, that is on par with the 2m deaths modeling. Extreme and unrealistic.
I’m all for getting as many people back into normal circulation in the economy as possible, as soon as possible.
I hate being stuck at home. I hate that my kids are getting homeschooled and not amongst their peers. I hate that people aren’t able to show up to their jobs. I hate not being able to visit state parks or go to a movie or sporting event. All of it really sucks.
I really hope they can at the very least start allowing people who have recovered from confirmed positive cases to get back out. And anybody with positive antibody tests should be getting back out. And as the trends drop off and our medical facilities start feeling more comfortable with meeting demand, without also having to stop “non-essential” services, start getting more and more people back into their daily lives.
People will still opt to wear masks I would imagine. That will probably become more normalized.
I used to think tourists wearing masks were crazy, but they had likely been through pandemics in their home countries, so now i can understand where they were coming from.
I can see a scenario where your temperature will start to become a screening tool before entering airplanes or large events/concerts/stadiums.
I know that sounds crazy, but hospitals are doing it now. If you show an elevated temp, you’re not going inside through the regular entrance. They use a scan of your neck with a small device to check you out.
Nuke, IHME factored in social distancing from the beginning so that cannot now, retrospectively, be posited as the reason the projections have come down. the model was flawed.
60,000 deaths is a win? That will be the Trump math going forward…and by the way, go tell that to every one of those families who LOST, that they’re a winner in your score-book.
He already wants you to forget about it as quickly as possible.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1247900240155295745?s=19
Scooting those goal posts acouple 10,000 at a time.
who in this thread said 60k lost was a win? or is that your interpretation that someone might have said 60k dead is better than 2 million dead?
There’s nothing wrong with celebrating the efforts of the people who worked to keep it at 60k instead of going higher. What should we tell them instead?
People who would rather be divided than united will twist that around and say it’s calling 60k a win.
Idk why this is a win? It’s a bad flu year? No it’s not. We took insane measures and 60k die? We don’t do that on any flu year. Flu vaccines are trivalent at best so whatever kills us is usually not vaccinated on a bad year.
Do you think we get the same result if we carry on life as normal like we do with the flu?
knock off the straw man BS nuke. No one on my side of the argument said 60k was a win. It was one of the guys are your side of the argument.
You’re right Wanna. I think I just added some pundits talking point to Wait’s comment. I read their comment as minimizing the results and precautions as a political ploy so my brain just tacked on other talking points.
I was incorrect, thanks for the check.
glad to be part of the solution for empirical reasoning, not moral posturing.
I’m not trying to be a cynic or uncaring but were in a Pandemic. Death is unavoidable with no vaccine or immunity. 60k is a win compared to the alternative. We are seeing high death rates in countries that are prepared because they see things like this ever couple of years. Nothing short of getting locked in your house for 2 months is going to stop the deaths.
concur with that wait. Sure the CNBC crowd has taken a haircut. Too bad. What I’m concerned about are the working class folks who are getting hammered by this. In the short term, maybe that was a necessary step. But after May 1, they’re going to keep getting punished just because the professional class wants to dump Trump. Destroy the village in order to save it..
BTW, I just want to clear this up: I’m not a dem or a rep. I don’t like the media, either (bashed Mamma Machado for years due to her false narratives and hypothesized years ago that blogs/boots on the ground accounts would be the new media). BUT, and this is a big but…there’s a big difference between a blogger who doesn’t like certain media narratives just because they’re status quo, and a President actively attacking media because he doesn’t like their criticism. Then giving preference to media that panders to him. That’s a huge problem. Should be self-evident why.
Noam Chomsky (viewed as a Lefty, but isn’t really…just pro plebe/labor) has great lectures on media and propaganda, and I highly suggest people watch them, but in general he claims people won’t get into positions in the media unless the people doing the hiring know that those journalists have been trained to be “obedient” and will say what is expected without any coersion. So when people claim the Left media is doing X or the Right is doing Y, they aren’t consciously doing these things. The people at the top hand select the “obedient” ones and even recruit them early in their college careers. They don’t have to brainwash them or tell them what to write, because they’re obedient by nature and just know what’s expected of them. This is a proper take, IMO. You don’t get to be Paul Krugman writing ridiculously inaccurate pieces on how economies work unless the NYT knows you’re going to progress their agenda. Who is that on? Paul Krugman himself, “the media” (a pretty nebulous term implying some boogy man on whom to place blame), the school system for creating such obedients, or the corporates doing the hiring?
This is why I don’t care about R or L media other than to point out the hypocrisy of both. I’ll never form a firm opinion based on either, though.
Now take Angie. She is a huge homer. Graduated from OSU, started Blitz, etc. She has connections to Riley, and if she criticized him, she’d lose her connections. When I used to post at Blitz, I’d criticize her because what she was writing was not what I was objectively seeing with my own eyes. People were furious with me, and as the story goes, I got booted and started this site hoping to be more objective in what I was seeing. Now, is Angie a problem to be hated? I didn’t like her because she was insulting to my intelligence. I felt she was creating a narrative to protect her connection with Riley, to make Beav fans accept this was the best they could do, etc. It didn’t seem like fact. But she was groomed to do that. She’s an “obedient” (OSU alum, huge football fan, grew up watching DE and Riley, believed Riley was the reason for the 2001 team, etc…she repeated all of this over and over). I don’t know who to blame for all that. I just know individuals have reasons to pander and/or create narratives from simply being trained from grade school to be obedient to the deeper end of self interests, agendas, answer to the boss, etc. If people had backbones and critical thinking I don’t think it would be a problem, so maybe that’s the issue.
But anyway, narratives rule the day in modern times. Shiller just wrote a book called “narrative economics” that deals with this. Worth reading just to understand the power of narratives. But they rule the day in every discipline.
As a moderate, my plight sucks. I see two parties both digging in and getting more and more rabid and radical, and it’s my job to almost be a judge with my vote now and just vote for the least radical option. It’s not good. I never get to “win”, just like being a Beav fan.
Oh, and if I am political hardcore to one side it’s hating the Federal Reserve. If there’s a Party with one belief only, and that’s the belief, then I’m in that Party. They are the cause of almost every problem in this Country. It would be easier to make a short list of problems they haven’t caused…
I’m with you, Angry. I loved Chomsky. That, at least, passed for critical thinking, unlike a lot of the moral posturing that poses as social science that you see in postmodern commentary (or contemporary journalism for that matter). The best thinkers in this country today are two throw-back lefties: Camille Paglia and Mark Blyth.
I’m a life long liberal myself and for that reason I consider the trashing of our institutions (or economy in the present instance) in order to rationalize getting rid of guy you don’t like is the modern equivalent of that noxious Vietnam-era notion: “We had to destroy it in order to save it.”
I think Trump attacking the media has more to do with the blatantly false and untrue stories they run on him with so called “sources.” For god sake we all sat thru the 2+ years of the “Russia Collusion” narrative. If that didn’t open some eyeballs to the garbage they publish then i don’t know what will…
And I’m in the camp of Trump’s an idiot
So i just found out my sister-in-laws sister had a confirmed covid19 test. Tested 2 weeks ago and had results in 36 hours. She had a dry cough and headache for a few days then developed a fever and immediately went to the hospital for a test. Her Fever broke before she got her positive test result but the cough persisted. She’s had no symptoms for the last 3 days. Her husband and 3 kids have had no symptoms as of yet. She lives in Marion County. That’s the first person I know who has had it.
Sorry to hear BB.
Just some advice to pass on if they are interested. Stay active, let your lungs get fresh air. Suck on some zinc lozenges off and on throughout the day and eat good foods so their immune systems have what they need.
I haven’t been face to face with her since Christmas. (Unless you can really get it over 5g). I just talked to her, she said she got chills along with her fever and cough with headache. Her symptoms are completely gone as of now, but she does have a cough that she’s sure is allergies because it’s different from when she got tested (tree pollens are bad right now). She’s sure she got it at the grocery store because its the only place she has gone in the past month and a half. She did order Amazon stuff, but said she doused the boxes in lysol before opening. All is good for now.
I’ve read a #1 place people are getting it is pumping gas. Makes sense…you don’t think about the handle and let your guard down.
I have a diesel pickup and always wear a nitrile glove to pump because I can never get it washed off my hands. I was taking pandemic precautions before it was cool.
Thanks for the laugh BB hahaha
I was sicker than a dog last August. It came on suddenly on a Friday night and by Sunday I was flattened. I lost my sense of taste, low-grade fever and dry hack that lasted for six weeks. I lost 20 pounds in a month. My family doctor diagnosed a sinus infection, gave me steroids and antibiotics. I didn’t feel like myself again until November. Even before the pandemic, I wondered what the hell I had? I can’t imagine what COVID-19 must be like. I had some lung discomfort, but nothing distressing.
My kids friend group had the same kind of thing rip through us in late January and early Feb. It matched up with all the mild symptoms. The original families Dad got tested for Covid and it was negative. The docs said there looks to be a virus much like covid (Adeno or Rhino varriant of some kind?) that people are assuming was Covid but wasn’t. Or was his test just bad? The uncertainty of all this is nuts. Looking forward to mass antibody testing.
Perusing articles:
Vegas predicts UO as win leader in 2020 PAC football at 9.5, predicts OSU @ 5.5. Of course whether or not there is a season is in question…
Blazer’s CJ McCollum estimates a third of NBA players “live paycheck to paycheck.” WTF?!? How is that possible? 2019/20 ROOKIE minimum was apparently $897K…minimum for a 10 year veteran $2.56M. What do they spend it on? Condo rent, hookers and pure, organic, non-GMO, gluten-free cocaine?
I’d say you have to understand that a lot of NBA players who have family and friends they take care of, personal trainers, chefs and assistants and hopefully a chunk of their check is put away in an annuity or other retirement fund – they have to realize they won’t make this kind of scratch forever and shouldn’t live like they will.
OSU Cowboy coach Gundy getting widely panned for remarks about need to return to football. Here’s an example:
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/mike-gundy-coronavirus-comments-college-coaches-speak-like-fools/ibihc5fkcy9f1d7mhywupog8r
Everyone wants what he’s saying but the risks are enormous. The school won’t give in to this request, but he is in a state where he would get political support so maybe.
He’s trying to gain an advantage by being able to run a full spring practice. Or at min get even with any school that got some spring practice in.
I see either an extended training camp or a month delay in the season. Maybe fill Feb with all the bowl games.
Gundy’s preferred hairstyle is a mullet in 2020, that screams bat shit crazy at his core!
Gundy is basically Joe Exotic
I checked cases this morning and it was 405k in the US. I come back and it’s 446k? Jesus.
Testing will do that, I guess. (Edit: now down to 425k…data entry error?).
The death numbers have to be much higher just based on Germany and China shenanigans alone. So 88k worldwide probably more like 250k. Unfortunately the plebes will never get that information.
My bro just told me PDX schools for his kids closed til September now. If we do get a football season it’s probably not going to be in front of fans.
What’s Germany’s issue reporting?
China is due to local officials not wanting to report bad news to their bosses. There’s no hidden count because officials didn’t do one so they could keep reported numbers low.
In Germany, if you have an underlying condition and get Covid/die, they put the cause of death as the underlying condition. Their numbers have looked fantastic because of it.
China is a complete disaster. They’re also making owners turn factories on so the pollution maps show “they’ve returned back to work”…
https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914
It would be nice to have some real numbers. I guess we can’t handle the truth.
Yeah for acouple minutes there was an extra 0 on NJ.
Also, something fishy going on in NYC.
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-death-toll-dying-at-home-de-blasio-20200408-st3unrzzwncchckjxu4rcrwkiy-story.html
this is an attempt to bump up the fatality factor because they see the air going out of the millions are going to die scenario. pathetic.
Who said “millions” of people are going to die?
Link to video or quote.
So just some basic math…take the top four Countries that seem to have fairly legit reporting (Spain, Italy, US, France) and you come up with an average death rate of .0865. It’s reasonable to sample those four Countries because they have large samples and developed medical systems, high wealth, etc. So these are probably best-case Countries. The US is by far the best at .034, but again, as mentioned above NYC and possibly other places are not counting people dying in their homes. But anyway, if we use these samples it means there’s been 130,300 deaths based on total cases and that averaged rate. That seems more accurate than the 88k being reported.
The official rate is 88.1k/1.5mil or .058. That’s unlikely given all the poor reporting from Germany, China, third world, etc.
A few other factors:
1. Lag — there’s a pretty long lag between getting it and dying. The deaths should explode in the coming weeks.
2. How do you factor in NYC? They normally have 20-25 people per day dying at home alone. Now they have 100 to 200. Let’s assume 20 is normal and now they have 100. That’s 5x, conservatively. If we extrapolate that it means NYC alone has 38,000 deaths. They’re reporting 6,200. If we add that to the 130k deaths above that’s almost 170k deaths. That number feels right. I was speaking to my lady today and told her gut math says around 250k deaths so far. Could easily be another 80k when you factor in China, Germany, and the other shenanigans. By the way, if you add those 38,000 NYC deaths that are going unreported, that brings the USA to 10.7%, which is right in line with the other three developed Countries. So there is that. We’re not special.
3. Dying of Corona like symptoms but not official cause. This would increase mortality rate.
4. Lack of testing. This could decrease mortality rate.
So while that Fauci worst case model of 1 million fatalities is far away still, it’s really not that far away. If you believe there’s been only 88k deaths I have a bridge to sell you…
Lack of testing is a gigantic factor. It eliminates basically all asymptomatic patients (believed 25-50% from last I’ve heard?), as well as most mild to moderate cases. Heavily skews the mortality rate high. The really sick people are the only ones that are reliably tested.
While more people dying at home certainly are likely to include some corona cases, I don’t know that you can assume they are the majority. There are many other potential factors there- offhand:
– Inability / unwillingness to go to the doctor for other issues due to virus concerns
– Compromised medical care due to virus concerns (see: appendicitis above; etc)
– Lack of availability of medication or other medical supplies
– Social distancing causing less social contact and less opportunity for a friend or relative to intervene in a medical emergency
– Mental health issues aggravated by the situation that we’re in
There’s a whole lot going on that’s different than normal. I don’t think you can assume much about the at-home deaths without more data.
Agree with most of that and should have written an “etc” for the other variables, but I don’t think this one is true.
The really sick people are the only ones that are reliably tested.
NYC is a good example of this. If 100-200 people are dying alone at home, those are really sick people who aren’t being tested. They’d actually skew the numbers worse. All the examples you gave of why someone might die at home are likely the 20-25 normal “at home deaths” in NYC per day. It’s possible that it’s due to other illness, and since the curve is not flat, the system is overwhelmed and they die at home. I mean, that is possible…not sure it’s more probable than they simply have Corona and died. But that’s why I went with the low number of 100 figuring if we take the lesser number it gives margin of error to rule out all those anomalies.
Agree that there are some really sick people with the virus that aren’t being tested, which contributes to the people dying from home.
But all the examples that I listed are things that are different relative to the 20-25 person “normal” baseline. They are risk factors based on our reponse to Coronavirus, and not on the virus itself.
If you’re old, sick, have health conditions, live alone, etc- it’s not just the threat of getting coronavirus that puts you more at risk. The medical system is much less able to take care of you. Supply chains for critical materials can be unreliable. Social isolation can prevent someone from saving your life. Your fear of the virus can cause you to not seek medical attention when you really need it.
All that to say, I can see a lot of reasons for many more people to die at home today vs 3 months ago, even if none of them had coronavirus. To include the cases, I think you’d at least need to know more detail about the manner of death.
I kind of wonder if genetics aren’t at play a bit. I mean Spain, Italy and NYC share a lot of the same genetics.
Racist.
well it does appear to be hitting black people hard too… and men for that matter.
And sexist too!
Interesting graph showing the growth rate of positive cases in midwest states. In South Dakota, where there currently is not a stay home order, the growth has take off at a much steeper trajectory this past week than other states around them.
https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1248000184493027329?s=19
My bro told me all of Oregon just closed school for the rest of the year.
Yep. Officially official now
Yep! I’m now a millworkers and a teacher. This is gonna be interesting to say the least.
So, I had to work on my projects this afternoon and I’m trying to catch up with the thread.
Way up top, several commentators try to make the argument that you can’t fault the modelers because the onset of social distancing has altered the earlier (the faulty, high fatality) trajectories. WRONG. From the beginning, the IHME model factored in social distancing, travel bans, the whole enchilada. Dig into the website if you don’t believe me. Face it, doomsters, the model was wrong, and it’s likely to (1) precipitate a depression; (2) [and here’s the real point], diminish Trump’s chances at re-election. as I said above, “we had to destroy the village in order to save it.” What a shameful farce.
And then there’s this “anecdotal” item (just as my deep backgrounder on the origin of virus was, a notion that has gained more currency even if CNN and MSNBC prefer CCP propaganda) To wit: My brother in law is a doctor in Florida. Curiously enough, Anthony Fauci interned under him in NYC in the early 70’s. He likes Fauci, but thinks Fauci is wrong about the malaria drug. He says every health care worker needs to get on that stuff pronto. Come to find out, my sister has been on it.
The employees at the grocery where I shop are receiving +$2.50 an hour ‘hazard pay’ and bonus Easter money as well. They deserve it and how could we not see higher food prices, even if food itself isn’t more expensive?
A few gems from today’s column by Holman Jenkins of the Wall Street Journal that touch on some themes I have tried to raise in the last few threads.
“There will be much to criticize about the Trump administration’s response, just as we can never forgive FDR’s baiting of Japan with embargoes while leaving the fleet bottled up in Pearl Harbor.”
“From the bottom of my heart, let me point out how genuinely worthless some journalists are as thinkers and critics when they venture beyond their job of getting quotes and facts right. The media is staffed with people for whom the hindsight fallacy is not a fallacy; it’s their métier.”
“Yes, everything could have been done by the Trump administration faster and sooner. That’s par for the course for the U. S. government, unfortunately (see: history). Mr. Trump’s own ‘messaging’ (which in the meta world of journalists is more important than any concrete reality) has been its typical mess when the president is ad-libbing. It is also low-consequence no matter how much the media tries to make it high-consequence.”
“A president who does a fair impression of Pinocchio has been the vehicle for exposing the media’s own mendacity. A president rightly criticized for trafficking in conspiracy theories was the victim of one himself–and not promoted by a solitary guy with a Twitter account [Trump], but by the nation’s media, law enforcement and political institutions.”
The Stanford Daily reports on the antivirus testing previously mentioned here. Some 3200 volunteers tested in Santa Clara County and others in Colorado. Testing was done last Fri/Sat with results expected to be released within a week. Soooo, any day now we could get an indication of how widespread unreported cases may be.
Maybe angry should get in touch with our bloger from Stanford, Hank from GoMightyCard. See if he was tested and/or get a sense of the vibe there.
https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/04/04/stanford-researchers-test-3200-people-for-covid-19-antibodies/
the comments on that article are fascinating. My guess in Cali is they come back at 20%+
One of the few comments that didn’t say they thought they’d had the virus already:
“I’m not sure Facebook users count as representative samples of the population. There could be a significant percentage of non-FB people that are not very social and therefore less likely to have gotten the flu.”
Hmmm
Yeah, their sampling methods seem suspect. People that seek out a test like this probably had a cold they couldn’t get tested for so the numbers will likely be higher than a truly randomized sampling. With that being the case it seems possible the percent of people with antibodies in the group is crazy high. Still useful data and will hopefully encourage more testing of this nature in a truly randomized group, it just shouldn’t be extrapolated to the population at large.
Curious….Will Trump forgive the Covid medical bills for the under insured/ uninsured….does it matter? Not like our for-profit half-assed socialist healthcare system was gonna cover it all anyways….or maybe we already do cover them via our premiums? Will premiums go up? This all rests on Donnie’s orange shoulders….hopefully he can sleep at night with a thousand pounds of ventilators on his back — and another plugged up his ass! He’ll have a plan….Hail Donnie! Hail Donnie!
A growing list of Health Insurers are waiving all out of pocket costs for Covid19 related treatment occurring between April 1st and May 31st. I know the list in this article is complete, so if you don’t see yours, it still may have the same policy.
https://www.aarp.org/health/health-insurance/info-2020/coronavirus-insurers-treatment-costs.html
From the SOME THINGS NEVER CHANGE file:
Just saw an interview with Linda Ronstadt, circa 1982. When asked about newspaper reporting she responded that, “…you can’t believe anything you read, they’ve lost all of their credibility.”
It’s not just the media, though. You certainly can’t believe anything the government tells you. And you also can’t believe many academic papers. Ironically, we probably can’t trust Linda Ronstadt, either. Why stop at the media?
That’s what is so frustrating to watch with Trump. He says to distrust the media, implying we should trust government. Okay. Lol. This is why I said above Trump’s hatred of media matters more than the general public. There is an implication to trust government, and people who go after media want State run media. Not good.
But, Linda is lots more fun to listen to!
Only brought it up as a reminder that saying the media has lost credibility is nothing new. Agree with your point, the leap to say if the media is lyng then government must be “truthing” is certainly a mistake.
Now, did you head down to San Miguel County last week to participate in the Stanford test?
She and Stevie Nicks were my two favorite women as a kid.
Going on record here with a prediction. Not a sure thing, those kind of predictions are no fun at all.
Nuke (and others) may want to do a little math and weigh in on this.
HEADLINE: GM Lands U.S. Ventilator Contract Worth Almost $500 Million
DETAILS: GM, along with Ventec Life Systems have been awarded a contract to make 30,000 ventilators by the end of August.
-GM shares pared an early gain of as much as 3.9% to trade up 2.2% to $21.77 as of 10:20 a.m. Wednesday in New York.
PREDICTION: Within a year the 20:20 hindsighters will point out that a large portion of these 30,000 units was not needed and blame those on the opposite side of the political aisle for awarding this contract to enrich “big business”.
Would that be an incorrect take? GM has been a zombie company for over 40 years. They’d have failed several times without the government crutch. Probably much better companies to hand that money to and ask to make ventilators.
Obama handing them a bailout was a tragedy, too.
Agree with both of you. GM ventilators will prolly rust out in two years.
I don’t think it’s a bad idea to over produce these things. In the event we find ourselves facing a similar or larger outbreak within the next 10 years, it would be nice to be prepared rather than everybody bitching about supply shortages.
I keep wondering how a quantity of 30,000 anything can be such a polarizing topic for a country that is supposed to be a world leading economic giant. A number like 30,000 should be trivial, not crippling.
Hospital grade machines cost around $25k to $50k.
In a related story, Xerox is producing much cheaper, lower grade disposable ventilators that will cost around $125 each as a stop gap to get us by while we wait for more production of high end machines. I think that’s pretty cool when a company can re-tool and start manufacturing something that isn’t remotely close to their area of expertise on short notice. Go Xerox
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/xerox-plans-produce-disposable-ventilators-n1177551
I have no issue producing 30,000 of them. Just …GM. Ugh.
Terrible company.
I hear that there’s a report going around now that some doctors think the ventilators are hurting more than helping.
A theory from a doc in Israel.
I thought I read 80-90% of the Covid19 patients on vents are dying. So that theory sounds plausible.
Ean, correlation /= causation?
By the time you’re on a ventilator you’re close to death, is my point.
Maybe should have said possible instead of plausible, or perhaps something in between
It’s how they are used and with what medication. UAB is doing a study right now with vents and a medication used for premature babies that help the lungs develop. I believe its nitric gas.
I hear that there’ a report going around now that some doctors think the ventilators are hurting more than helping.
Would Foxconn be better?
https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/2020/04/06/foxconn-medtronic-make-ventilators-coronavirus-wisconsin/2956624001/
Well, those 30,000 units certainly won’t be needed in August, but they might be needed in November, or for the next pandemic.
Thats exactly what they’re for. National strategic stockpile.
My issue is we will stockpile these and in 20 years when the seals are dried out and need to be rebuilt some politician will try to save a few bucks and decide they aren’t worth rebuilding.
I agree. Think about advancements in equipment down the road. In a year or two they could greatly improve on current technology and the stockpile will be antiquated.
As long as they are kept in workable order.
A month ago, was talking to a local pulmonologist about the national stockpile and was told those are mostly non-functioning junk. Sure enough those were needed, pulled out of mothballs, sent to states…lo- and-behold many are non-functioning junk.
Making them is a fine idea. With Maintanence that many can increase our supply and make us more robust against fututre issues. It can also help out world footprint by loaning them out to other stricken countries, good soft diplomacy.
Rewarding GM the contract is stupid. They will pocket the contract and produce 3-5k ventilators before unforseen production difficulties make it impossible without more funding. Half the ones they produce will fail a day after the warranty expires. $16,666 per ventilator sounds pretty steep for mass production. Top of the line high frequency models cost between 25k-50k for an order of 5 or less. GMs will not be top of the line.
Sounds like UAW work at its finest.
That is a fantastic point.
https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-coronavirus-outbreak-mainly-came-from-travelers-from-europe-2020-4?op=1
Food for thought.
Makes you wonder if the east coast is not dealing with a deadlier strain than the west coast.
East coast residents are also stacked like cord wood. Without testing and no social distancing that thing had plenty of time to get rolling.
Nuc- Reply to an earlier post of yours from yesterday. I am not minimizing the results nor the effort of many. There is way to much politics involved in this and it is frustrating to watch. Between the majority of the media and the dems (redundant I know) its amazing anything is getting done. People calling for 12-18 month shutdown are truly either living in a bubble or just want the whole thing to collapse. And collapse is not a pretty picture.
Check out this link- Is it true? I continue to hear of this and it makes me wonder, and like I said, way to much politics-
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/how-honest-is-the-covid-fatality-count.php
This is kind of funny, https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-said-hed-look-into-pardoning-joe-exotic-tiger-king-2020-4
Fed now officially buying junk bonds (with a BBB- rating threshold) and junk bond ETF’s. The silver lining here is that companies that were terrible before COVID will likely not be included, just the ones that have recently been downgraded.
Gold up 2%.
So disappointing, but so obvious. I bought JNK at 86ish…knowing they’d do this.
I’m still not sure this is the bottom in stocks, but probably if they’re going to buy everything under the sun. RIP US Dollar.
So the new US stock market taking off point is ~50% overvalued. Let’s see how big they get the bubble this time.
Notice the move up in stocks today has (so far) been fairly muted for how much additional stimulus was just announced. Also notice how they timed it to coincide perfectly with the release of really bad employment data. Shocker.
I don’t even know what to say anymore other than the FED is going to buy everything (bonds, mortgages, stocks), get one last historic bubble, and the USD is going to be the victim. Gold and cryptos will be the biggest winners, but my guess is both get huge windfall taxes to crush those smart enough to buy them. Everyone is going to lose. There’s nothing we can do (other than ditch dollars); the FED is going to have to fail by it’s own accord because the people are too ignorant as to what they’re doing to start any movement.
A wise man once said, “the solution to the problem can’t be worse than the problem itself.”
And what happens when people realize that gold also has zero value?
What, you don’t want to trade your goat for a small shiny rock that you can use…as a paper weight?
So don’t buy it, ya ding bat.
Why would anyone thumb this down? Lol. Just goes to show nobody understands the FED.
“When” people “realize” gold has no value…they’ll find something else to use as a store of value. I doubt that revelation will occur overnight.
Or we’ll revert to a barter system if humanity suddenly loses faith in the concept of money.
I just want to know when baseball cards are going to make a comeback? Anyone want to trade a goat for a Ricky Henderson rookie card in mint condition?
Welcome to my life on AB. I get down votes for existing sometimes.
For people who understand the FED, what are you guys doing?
Curious to compare it to my strategy and brainstorm.
No IHME update overnight or yet this morning.
Here’s some interesting reading on Germany and an antibody testing they are doing. They are seeing some differences in current thinking about the virus. Take it for what its worth.
https://www.thenational.ae/world/germany-s-wuhan-has-15-per-cent-infection-rate-and-low-death-toll-1.1004050
Thanks BB good find. Hoping we get more of these studies over the next week. Back when they were saying 80-90% of people are mild or asymptomatic the math worked out to a .25-.5% mortality rate. Good news in my book to see that initial antibody screenings are in that zone. If that holds the 100% infection rate of the US would be something like 825k-1.7m deaths. Projections are looking to be in the 40-60k rate so we can extrapolate 8-24 million people will end up infected which is 2.5-8% of the population.
That sounds fairly reasonable to me based on how much community spread and the confirmed infections. Please post anymore antibody studies you find, great data.
There was question yesterday of my claim that someone projected 2 million deaths in the U.S. if we did nothing. His name is Neil Ferguson, a epidemiologist and professor of mathematical biology at imperial college of london. New york times and Washington post consider him to be the standard of disease modeling. Much of what is happening in this country is based on the original projections of his and others. All way to high. Look him up.
Yeah don’t bother to bring up actual facts with many of those on this site. Assumptions and tinfoil hats seem to be much more popular.
Constructive. Thanks for your contribution.
How can you know they are way too high? There’s no objective reality where the modeling assumptions happened. The closest to that is Sweden.
I believe that the large majority of these projections are with the US on lock down. This week and next are supposed to be the worst, even with us doing what they want. Its just not shaping up for it to be that way but we may experience a large spike in deaths. Time will tell but the projections were off by a huge margin and its not only because of social distancing.
I think most of it comes from the early mortality number of 2%. If you pull that down to .25% (low end of latest projections) it’s 1/8th the number of deaths. That’s a huge error in a model and a good example of how bad data (thanks China) can have massive effects.
thanks WTNY, for providing some context. I didn’t know of Neil Ferguson before now and hadn’t seen his name on this blog up until now, but I could have easily missed it.
Like I was mentioning yesterday, the 100k figure from Dr Fauci is what I’ve given the most credibility to, since it’s coming from the Federal government and the CDC.
Not sure why this warranted a tinfoil hat comment. For asking the source of information? Without that, they’re just numbers on a page to other readers. Knowing where they came from helps.
Thank you, I should have been more clear. I freely admit I sometimes let emotions rule what I post, especially in regards to something like this.
Beavers edge on Artavis Pierce draft prospects, predict 4th or 5th round:
https://oregonstate.rivals.com/news/nfl-draft-profile-rb-artavis-pierce
I think his career 5.8YPC and big play ability against a team like Ohio State ought to attract attention, but I’m guessing he goes undrafted free agent route.
He’s damn fast. Fast enough to translate to the NFL which many of our great backs lacked.
Nall didn’t have 40 speed, but that didn’t stop him from breaking big plays in the NFL preseason. It’s a bummer he never got a shot with anyone.
Agreed, I thought Nall had the goods to be an NFL back. Maybe 20 years ago when FB still existed. Quiz being on rosters for so long has actually been a great surprise.
Also agree. Nall had skills. He should have gotten more of a chance. He did have 2 carries for a 4 yard average last year! Long of 7 yards. Maybe he’ll get another shot.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/N/NallRy00.htm
I think he’ll be a nice surprise for someone. He performed without a great offensive line or consistent QB play (but for one season). Team player too.
Didn’t angry say this guy was as good as dead the other day? If he lived it would be a miracle?
Yeah, about that……
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/uk-prime-minister-boris-johnson-released-from-icu-coronavirus-symptoms-improve.html
Good news!
Good(fake)news!
So one of my oldest friends from childhood, a huge Republican, texts me today to say he’s voting…Biden. Lol.
Going to catch up with him this weekend to figure out what changed. First hardcore R guy I’ve seen switch, though. Lives in the deep south, good corporate job, etc. Every moderate I know switched long ago and those were pretty obvious, but this is a big deal to me. His quote on text “I’m sooo voting for Biden. This shit has to stop. It hasn’t been funny for a while, and now it’s scary.”
Should be an interesting phone call.
Is he a republican or a conservative? There’s a difference.
I’m not sure, we don’t talk politics often. I just know he always votes (R). A few months ago he was saying Trump in a landslide. Just a very interesting change. Going to dig in more this weekend when we talk.
If this is the reason it will be an interesting phone call:)
Biden: Trans Women Need Same Protections from Violence as Biological Women
Can you expand on that BB? I used to see a clear difference but it’s kinda hard to sort out now. Real question, not shit post.
Nuke, that’s such a hard question without a multi layered answer.
Short answer: The Republicans have been infiltrated buy the religious right and special interest groups. True conservatives adhere to the constitution, are fiscal responsible and are for small government. I don’t see any of those thing right now.
This is such a basic answer I don’t really want to post it, but I want to give you something.
Thanks man, that fits with what I used to think. Just been a lot of Republicans claiming to be conservatives so it got confusing. Answer was perfecto.
Sounds like Libertarians.
I went through a phase where I thought that was interesting, but then I realized there is a lot of hypocrisy.
Watch how many “Libertarians” apply for small business loans, accept the $1,200 check, apply for unemployment, work at corporations accepting huge bailouts, voted for Trump who just expanded govt 10x, etc.
People are desperate and ideology goes out the window. Just watch.
I’m not sure of the veracity of this article. But interesting nonetheless.
https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody
Not sure it means much. Since they are getting tested it must be a select group like showing symptoms or exposed to someone who tested positive. It lends credence to asymptomatic evidence but I don’t think it gives us much % of pop data. The way the German town did it was better sampling.