At least it’s a home game?
I don’t see how we win this one, but I’ll listen to arguments before posting a final score prediction on Saturday.
At least it’s a home game?
I don’t see how we win this one, but I’ll listen to arguments before posting a final score prediction on Saturday.
Run the dam ball.
PFF comparisons:
Offense
Passing- adv. Nike
Rushing- adv. OSU
Receiving- push
Run blocking- adv. OSU
Pass blocking- adv. OSU
Defense
Run defense- adv. Nike
Tackling- adv. Nike
Pass rush- adv. Nike
Coverage- adv. Nike
Special Teams- adv. OSU
I think this will be close. Not a 2 TD game like the prognosticators are suggesting. My LODB internal voice is saying the refs will somehow screw us over or all our new inexperienced guys will struggle in the spotlight and we’ll lose a one score game.
35-28 Nike
Not sure how we have the special teams
Advantage. We haven’t run back a kick and we aren’t great at fgs.
And at least one punt went awry because of protection.
Gotta tighten up the blocking, if you want the P to kick it where our coverage (our strength) can do their job.
That penalty on Reichle was baloney… unless there’s a halo rule, which I thought disappeared long ago.
How does OSU have advantage on special teams? The Yucks scored 14pts against BSU on a kick return and a punt return.
I wonder what they’ve seen out of OSU’s special teams to think that’s an advantage for us vs oregon?
Didn’t oregon have both a punt and kickoff return for a TD last weekend?
We can’t hit a field goal, we’ve had a long snap sail through the end zone, we fair catch almost everything. The only big special teams play i can think of OSU having was a punt block vs SDSU.
Seems weird. Oregon right now clearly has ST edge.
Weird, I just checked the individual game grades and they have ST as ‘incomplete’ for Nike-BSU. That will clearly change things.
Sappington is a deep mole plant and will miss all kicks next weekend.
X-Factors:
OSU homefield – 17-2 since 2022?
OSU QB Gabarri Johnson – he should get multiple series.
Griffin and Hankerson’s physicality will surprise Ducks. Allah’s speed will compliment.
Bray+Gunderson+DeVan probably care more about preparing for and winning the game than Lanning et al. I think Lanning is having FUN being young and coaching a rich team, I just feel like he’s under-coaching…like maybe he’s already pretty satisfied?
Gunderdon opens up playbook, even if preferred WRs can’t go. Will ask others to step up. Also, multiple series for GJ.
Referees. Are they PAC refs?
UO – OLine underwhelming, and could be surprised by an emerging Collins, “slippery ” JoJo Johnson.
UO DLine – how are they playing? OSU OLine faces its first real test, this matchup is I think the most questionable and in Ducks favor. It will be a mouthful to call OSU LT Christian-Lichtenhan blocking Uiagalelei. I want to see if his height and arm length protect the QBs. Can he move his feet well enough? Get the ball out quickly.
Crowd- have a bunch of Duck fans snatched up tix for this extra “home game?” Fans not likely to travel well to Midwest, so, here’s their chance.
TV- Beavs distracted by time slot and audience? I don’t think so, but could be a risk for McCoy? His biggest stage yet.
RTFB. Even if only getting 3 YPC…plays will break.
If OSU secondary can play like the 2022 team did against Caleb Williams/SC, and Beavs avoid TOs, they can win.
Getting to Gabriel is a factor too. He gets rattled pretty easily when he sees pressure. He is a smaller qb, early in the season gives us a better shot at the Ducks because they are stil figuring out some that with their offense.
Yeah, it sounds like UO OLine has underwhelmed so far. I think OSU will get to him a few times and surprise.
Georgia southern scored 6 TDs on Boise and the wuacks only scored 3 offensive TDs vs Boise. Their fans are blaming their center, they say he sucks. Seems like uncle Phil may not be paying enough money for offensive linemen, what a cheapskate. Also seems like everyone in quack land is looking forward to playing their real true rival—-Ohio State
I thought UW was their true rival? And now their B10 west region rival…
Are students back yet? If not, that really sucks.
Move in is September 18–20.
Agree, this is a fail to have a Civil War game before students are even on campus. Feel like it’s a disservice to the students to have them miss out on that experience. At least students living in the dorms. I bet alot of the upper classmen will be in town already.
If students don’t/can’t get tickets yet, does section become available to general public?
I know in the past they’ve opened up some of the student section tickets in the end zone for sale to the public, but that usually comes just a day or 2 before the game
Well, it would suck if those fill up with Duck fans….in the future, if this series continues as non-conference, the risk is always that students aren’t on campus.
Don’t do a series. Let next year be the end.
Are Duck fans actually going to show up for this one? It’s an interesting question. Prior CWs always had a smattering of the opposing team’s fans in attendance which could at least give the road team a slight boost. I just can’t imagine being a Duck fan and wanting to show up at Reser right now. Would be way too awkward.
lol… ascribing introspection to Duck fans.
I see what you did there.
Duck fans are insensitive to their boorishness. Some will come because they think it will be a beaver beatdown to enjoy.
Students won’t be fully back yet but there was a lottery queue to get the student tickets today so expecting a decent turnout. They’ve only done that queue for highly sought after student tickets such as for the UW game last year, USC, and Civil Wars
The game is winnable, just not likely.
Oregon’s front 7 makes the difference in a relatively low scoring game. 20-10
Eh.. they’re also not great against the run. Boise pulled a Langsdorf/Lindgren and went all pass-happy late in the game. It’s what lost them the game.
This time next week we’ll either be complaining about this or that, or we’ll be quietly stunned and inspecting Lucy’s technique holding the ball.
I wouldn’t put money on either.
Boise’s offense is really good. Don’t see the Beavs putting up points like they did. If Oregon’s O-Line issues continue though they could be held down to 20 or less which might be JUST enough. Maybe.
I don’t see us putting up that many, because we’ll be doing it methodically, not with big runs of 50+ yards for scores.
And I will take McCoy over Madsen in both passing and mobility. I just don’t want to see it become the focus, because that’s not our strength, and defending it is their strength.
Our D getting rest then coming in and playing downhill is what I want.
Also, I just about fell out of my chair when we tossed a screen… to a RB, no less.
I haven’t seen one of those in a while.
Jam has been surprisingly good with catching the ball out of the backfield.
I don’t think running outside zone to start the game is a good idea with Oregon’s speed at linebacker.
An alternative is to throw a bunch of receiver screens and force them to run sideline-to-sideline. I do think our receivers are more physical than their corners so 2-3 yards is good enough and forces those linebackers out of the box.
You lost me at @throw a bunch…”
Shame because it’s just another running play with fewer moving parts
You are spot on here Jack. McCoy may be just mobile enough and just accurate enough to make the difference as long as he doesn’t make any egregious errors. But that isn’t the strength of this team. The goal for DUcks will be to force McCoy to try to win it and shut down the run, but can they actually do that?
I think Gundy has already shown he doesn’t mind a variety of run mixes and using some passing plays to mix in, but he isn’t interested in a balanced offense but an effective offense. Shocking perspective for us all to hear from an OC.
That last part you posted is true. Gundy was asked after the ISU game why they ran so many times. He said something to the effect of “if its working why stop doing it?” I think to many coaches want “balance”. Screw that. If something is working keep doing it. Its up to the other team to stop you. dont let them off the hook by changing things up just for the sake of balance.
The first 2 games were 2 of the Ducks’ worst O-Line performances in the last 25 years. It remains to be seen if that continues but they seem to be ripe for an upset. They didn’t come close to covering against Idaho and BSU so I’m sure Vegas has adjusted their potential spreads somewhat. They may just be one of those teams that never covers this year though. Yes they have speed at the skill positions but if the O-Line can’t create running lanes or protect the QB there’s no way for that speed to be utilized. Gabriel appears to be a good passer when given time but isn’t dynamic with his legs. If the Beavs’ D is actually legit this should be a one score game. I’m taking the under and Beavs +14.
Cristobal’s oline recruits have finally moved on.
Plus Cavanaugh coaching contributions….
If the beavs come out hot and move the ball methodically and the defense keeps everything in font of them then they have a better then 50% chance here. I’m way more confident of this game then I was before the season started. Bray is going to need a great game plan. He’s done it once before, at least for half a game during the big comeback win. Let’s see it again.
I think the Beavs need a defensive TD to win the game. Just don’t see the offense putting up enough points.
He had great defensive game plans v. Caleb Williams/USC and Penix/UW. Held USC far below their season average of about 42 points that year, and UW scoreless in second half and below their season average of about 38 ppg.
In each loss, Beavs had 3-4 TOs and lost by 3 and 2 points respectively.
drake toll campaigning for beavs/cougs to b12…no update, just explaining our case. fast forward video around midway point
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2I-5Yz7nQI
Makes sense but probably won’t happen unless WSU/OSU could show that the PNW TV revenue would be enough to add them without taking money out of the pockets of the other schools. Interesting idea: What if the Big 12 expanded even further and added teams like Boise, Fresno, SD. State, etc. and made the TV money allocation based on actual performance? Any new schools would be added to the conference at half shares like the BIG did with Oregon and Washington. But they would be able to play their way in to full shares over time. It would be a form of promotion/relegation but just based on the money allocation. Would be super interesting. I know the biggest schools would never want to put themselves at risk for less money but I’m not suggesting monumental variances. Maybe 30% less for the worst vs the best in any given year etc.
So are there still PAC-12 refs now? Are they the same ones from previous seasons or a different group?
This is clearly not a Civil War game. Not nearly the traditional hype from the media and sponsors. This is just a non-Con game that the Ducks are probably looking past. Beavs have to be extra sharp and physical to win this but it’s definitely doable. But seems hard to believe Vegas will be so wrong 3 weeks in a row.
What’s Vegas wrong about?
Their odds are wholly designed to take money, not predict a game’s outcome.
The perception for them and all their opponents is they should be blowing them out, and it’ll be the next game when they right the ship.
Ride the grift while it still exists. If they fail to cover again, books will then be forced to downgrade the perception.
It’s more than perception. The odds are very predictive of the outcome the vast majority of the time. Otherwise the books would be massively exploitable and not have a sustainable business model.
They’re not meant to be predictive. They’re an incentive to their potential customers to place bets. They’re hedged against any potential losses on these spreads, as long as nobody is placing bets on those games. If they start seeing action, the line moves.
If they see enough action that crowdsourcing moves the line closer to the eventual outcome, it can appear to be predictive. But that’s not what it’s for.
Current example: point spread has gone from 20.5 to 14.5 and then to 16.5. Money line has moved from mid 400’s to mid 500’s for Beavs.
Appears books want to see more money wagered by Beavs than seen so far.
Books want equal money wagered on both sides so that one side pays the other……all while the book lives off the vig.
Yes the lines move based on betting activity. All that I’m saying is that if you look at the final line that comes out before game time……the one that is based on the best quality information and has taken into account the bettors’ activity (essentially applying the wisdom of crowds) is quite often very predictive of the outcome. It’s a bit of a chicken or the egg argument but regardless of what the sports book’s objective is (and I agree is that is to entice as many as people as possible to place bets on both sides of the line), the end result is a final line that ends up being very close to the result more often than not. In the case of the Ducks, the final line was way off in both their first two games. It’s possible that they are just going to end up being one of the few exploitable teams this year. Time will tell.
You’re missing some major variables.
Oregon/Idaho had only 50k more viewers than OSU/ISU. The point isn’t a comparison of who’s drawing more eyes. It’s that the numbers aren’t overwhelming. This means nobody outside the two fanbase groups were really watching. I expect more for both teams this past week, at least due to Boise and SDSU drawing more on their side. But how much are we expecting?
Couple that with the reality most of those eyes are coming from households in a state where sports betting is not allowed, and perception of the people who aren’t in the know will skew the numbers, until that perception is blown up.
There will be an adjustment to Nikegon’s expectations, depending on how they perform this weekend. But then they get a bye, followed by UCLA and MSU. They will continue to get the perception of just needing to work out the kinks, if they continue to win, regardless of this weekend… unless we blow them out, which isn’t likely, given how we’re built to just eat clock.
They could very well be overrated until tOSU and whatever the Chipster has in store for them. And if they do figure it out by then, and things start clicking, the perception will stick, because it has come to pass.
Early season success in the world of NIL is dependent on the core of the team being solidly loyal to the schools and coaches, plus an ability to evaluate incoming pieces so they can efficiently compliment that core. Time in system is very important, especially when that overlooked 3* player gets a training table and a year of conditioning removed from HS. It’s why super seniors are plus players in a lesser league.
Jack is correct.
How was Snap Dragon stadium? Good sight lines, food?
If Beavs get Holiday Bowl would you recommend it?
Actually, as some had mentioned, the stadium is really nice. I was up in the second level and could see everything from a good perspective.
The one really cool thing about the stadium is that it has a large perimeter outside the stadium (inside the gates). This made it super easy to navigate with a ton of people around if you need to go to the bathroom, grab a drink, or just hangout (apparently all of the students did just this than watch the game).
Didn’t grab food at the stadium. Looked good though and there was plenty of options.
Some rude fans like I mentioned. But, again small sample size in one section.
Half the stadium was Beav fans. Not even exaggerating. Really proud of Beaver Nation.
The key will be to prevent big plays especially on special teams. Need to make them drive the field and hopefully get some stops. They can’t let them get a big lead and play from behind.
Offensively they need to show that they can run the ball against them like the previous two games if not the offense could be in trouble. McCoy should be fine if he has protection and takes good care of the ball and makes smart plays. I’m a little scared of him locking on receivers and that one time it’s going to get jumped for a pick.
Wearing my orange colored glasses…
Beavs win 27-24
OT: Minshew is entertaining, if reliably unreliable:
“Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Gardner Minshew was triumphant in a quarterback battle with fellow teammate Aidan O’Connell. But there was no Minshew mania in a 22-10 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Minshew’s debut left a lot to be desired as the journeyman QB inexplicably lost the football on a pump fake that resulted in a lost fumble and had a pass deflected that led to an interception.”
He’s making some $ and making rosters….
We just canceled the 2025 game with Portland St and now they will be playing BYU. Something is up.
My guess is we’ll play a road or “neutral” site game vs PSU next year at Providence Park. Hope that is it, been saying they should do that for a couple years now.
OSU can schedule a bigger selling home game to replace it and then find an equitable revenue share deal for the PSU game.
And minimal travel expenses.
Would be great for an early season game before students are in session, those are the most sparsely attended generally, especially if an FCS opponent
Funny you say that, there was a pre-season article about the PSU AD trying to get a few game back in providence park. They didn’t say who but they did mention they were upset about us playing montana state up there last season. Not upset at us, upset that we were giving the opportunity and they weren’t.
That’s what has me thinking this would be the reason to cancel the game in Corvallis
Yes please!
I agree. I think both OSU and Oregon should play Portland State every 4-5 seasons in Portland.
Fuck Oregon
What happens when this team gets behind by like two TDs? Will the offense be able to move quickly and effectively when needed?
Gunderson said they would practice fast to play fast. He wants both abilities, said it’s easier to practice fast and slow down than practice slow and play fast.
Ya I just hope they can execute and put up a bunch of points if needed.
I have a question. The Beavs seemed to have dificuly getting off the field against IS, but totally dominated SDSU. Did the Beavs get that much better in week 2, or is SDSU just that bad? What do we actually know to gauge where the Beavers are at?
I’d wager that part of that was it being game 1. OSU had a bad snap on the punt go through endzone. ISU’s last TD drive was helped out by three 15 yd penalties on that drive. OSU had them stopped at least once on that drive, but penalties kept it going. They didn’t have those mistakes vs SDSU.
It’s said that a team’s biggest improvement is between games 1 & 2 so that’s part of it. Plus, most teams play a real vanilla offense/defense in games vs FCS schools. Don’t show a lot. You saw more from OSU on both offense and defense vs SDSU than you did vs ISU.
All of the pieces are in place for a Beav win:
-Coach Cav is on the inside creating an inconsistent O-line full of guys who can only run block or pass block, but none can do both very well and this gives our D-line plenty of opportunities to bring pressure and tfls.
-Sappington is the ace in the hole, after already kicking a game-winner, he is not suspected to be a double agent, with all manner of “inconsistencies” in his kicking resume
-KHJ has been in the belly of the beast, and has returned to his alma mater with supreme intel and a complete knowledge of the internal operations, mindset of the enemy, this will be to the Beavs advantage
Sappington will cost them at least a game this year, and Cav will not keep that prima donna O-line on his side forever. The shine will come off on both after a while, which only means Duck disappointment….incoming.
“A good running game and a clock-munching offense are a defense’s friend. OSU’s defense was on the field for little more than 18 minutes in its 21-0 win over San Diego State. It only makes sense that Bray, who played linebacker at Oregon State and has coached defense throughout his career, would lead with the run.”
Wow…how fun for a defense? Less than 20 minutes of playing time over what, 3.5 hours of game? Never tired…
Imagine two things:
1. An oline in good enough condition to do that for 40+ minutes in a game
2. A D who plays against that oline daily, with no ToP considerations
It occurs to me the Chipster failed to implement his speed run game, because he focused too much on the speed and conditioning. He didn’t balance it with proper size and technique in the trenches, regardless of speed. Everyone had to play within his system, instead of him tailoring it to the personnel and what historically drives success at the highest level.
When the substitution rules took away all the “clever” stuff his teams would do–running players on and off while the chains were moving and still playing hurry up, and such–he was at a loss to adapt.
Gundy benefits from his experience with the guy from an X and O standpoint. But I think he benefits more with his friendship with Brennan, who altered their speed passing game to be run-first and still work within the substitution rules they had already adapted to.
The best thing Bray did when he became DC was to keep it simple. It’s college football. KISS should apply to all things related.
Running the ball is fun, but the Beavs will have to throw when that gets shut down.
28 – 24 Big Brown Beaver win
The most glaring thing to me is where is the Ducks running game? They averaged about 3 YPC in games against Idaho and Boise State. I mean, based on the sample size thus far, this is a very winnable game. And this time we don’t have a coach halfway out the door. AND IT’S A 12:30 KICK! Which means the stadium will be packed and raucous.
That is surprising given the alleged quickness and speed of their RBs.
And it sounds like Gabriel can be pressured and flustered.
Saw an article tag line on OLive that UO continues to experiment in practice this week with different OLine combinations.
For those who use Dish and live in Florence……It appears that the Portland Fox channel for the game…..(which is normally not available on Dish)……is going to be available on Dish.
Offense is avg over 419 yds per game. 9 penalties per game. -1 on turnovers. Definitely seems like their o-line is where their inconsistency has been generated from. Obviously they’ve got tons of talent and speed in skill positions, but the line play has started off slowly for them apparently. Would be huge if our line and edge guys could disrupt without having to get super creative on blitzes and allow secondary to better support each other.
Their game plan on offense is to get the ball in space for their athletes. Make it easy for the QB. The OL and deep routes are obvious weaknesses.
If Bray and Gundy roll with the game plan to “run, run and run some more, expecting to wear the ducks down by the 4th quarter and put it away”, will it work?
I think the strategy for:
punting- should be sideline or close to out of bounds rather than a flip the field approach that out kicks the coverage and creates duck opportunities.
Kickoffs- through the endzone every time no chances for returns for ducks
Field goals- anything less than 4th & 2 should be worth going for it, beyond that try the fg and pray that Hayes is a legend game
Defense- mix in blitzes early and rattle Gabriel with early hits and pressure; sound tackling in space and avoid big plays for easy scores (keep them between the 20s and bend don’t break)
Offense- run right often, run left often, run inside trap often, run qb keep a few times, play action to TE, play action for deep shot to Wells, run right at them and make it a displeasing game when they know they can’t stop what they know is coming again just like 2022 with Martinez and 2016 with Nall/Pierce.
Ducks wilt if they aren’t front runners having success. Make them struggle and get gritty for something and their character doesn’t allow for it. Put them into uncomfortable situations.
Bray has had success with game planning in big matchups and I like his chances with this one. Ducks still don’t know if they can trust each other and they have too many egos fighting for the limelight and attention.
Go Beavs!!
I expect we might see a more balanced attack and have the playbook opened up. Obviously, if the run is working early we probably lean on that more heavily as usual.
Good thoughts on kicking.
I was wondering if opponents are kicking long FG that might have a low initial trajectory, could OSU put its 6’9″ LT with long arms in the center of the DLine? Maybe stack him behind the disruptive Collins and have him get a hand up?
Gundy interview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZsKYrh6UOU
I’m a lil worried about the pocket breaking down and Gabriel scrambling for first downs on would be stops.
McCoy and/or Johnson can do that too though…
He isn’t a great runner though. Looked very unsure and slow to move against BSU. I’d hope that he has to run because he may fumble and isn’t Marriotta out there.
He’s a third quartile QB under pressure so far this season according to PFF.
McCoy is second quartile, for the record.
Impossible. He is the heisman front runner.
What’s the smoke like in Corvallis?
AQI 16-18…
B12/Pac2 scheduling talks breaking down but ACC stepping up to try to broker something as ACC sees Pac2 as part of their lifeline if/when they lose 4-8 schools. Of course the mouse controls it all and just has its best interests at heart.
Mvher x
My guess, 2pac said no to football only
Just read that OL Tyler Voltin announced his knee injury in the last game was a season ender….
Well… that sucks. Hopefully we have a decent backup.
Gonzalez stepped in and actually had a higher PFF grade. Seems he’ll be decent.
ACL and MCL. Volton gonna miss significant time unfortunately. The Dam podcast had Alton Julian on. He talked about his injuries. Feel so bad for the guy. His last 2 injuries came days before full clear. Rehabbing a meniscus tear right now, said he should be able to play this season but it sounds like he’s all out of eligibility. Truly hope he can see the field for a few games just as a reward for his persistence through all this adversity.
At the San Jose State opening game last year there was a big contingent of Alton Julian’s family attending. Here it is over a year later and he hasn’t seen the field in several years. He made some key stops in the Utah win toward the end of the game and would have been a good addition to the team. Gotta feel for guys like this….
34-24 Beavs
Looking at OL snap counts, Devan is building depth really well.
Gray- 144
GCL- 114
Wells- 98
Starck- 97
Strand- 87
Voltin- 87 (now out for season)
Gonzalez- 77
Vincic- 56
All these guys have really good PFF grades, too. Wells is the lowest at 63, Starck is 69 (both are above average). The other guys are all in the top 50 nationally.
For reference, Gray was our lowest rated OL last season with a 67.
“Voltin, a 6-foot-4, 368-pound redshirt junior from Stayton,”- huge. How the hell does he move well enough to play tackle?
MCL and ACL tear…hope he can recuperate. Might be good to try and drop some weight?
He was playing RG
Thanks for providing the snap counts and grades.
The loss of Voltin primarily impaacts depth and the ability to get a little rest for these big guys; especially important with TOP nearing 40 minutes. Maybe as the playbook is opened we’ll see a bit less TOP which could somewhat mitigate his loss.
Yeah, a dose of orange colored glasses there, lol
Nike’s press conference background is ridiculous:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKY9S9uOu9Q
“Our dear Supreme Coach Lanning”
It’s funny because the visuals don’t match Lanning’s personality or presentation at all.
There is evil there that does not sleep, and the Great Eye is ever watchful.
He’s not centered on the toilet seat…someone will be executed.
https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2024/09/oregon-state-football-craves-more-of-this-in-rivalry-game-vs-the-ducks.html
Interesting read – Gunderson has more plays to use (obviously) , but wants to play smart and in best interest of team. Wins matter more than stats…
““There’s always stuff that you have in and you may not get it run,” Gunderson said Tuesday. “But you kind of keep it in the in the lab or in the in the crock pot. You let it kind of slow cook. And when it needs to come out, it’ll come out.”
Like his spice and cooking analogies….
You can layer the heat over time, but don’t add the garlic until the end, or you’ll be fighting a bitter taste… sort of like 4th and goal from the 15 with 6 seconds left in the half.
Fake FG K Dive is more like adding arsenic than garlic.
Tied* and proceed to lose by 3
https://247sports.com/college/oregon-state/article/oregon-state-football-2024-oregon-ryan-gunderson-anthony-hankerson-joshua-gray-236045448/
I was very cool to the Gunderson hire originally. Thought maybe it was one too many alumni hires and more external voices were needed. But I really appreciate his levity and willingness to keep calling what works rather than calling something just because it’s there….great interview, as someone here suggested, he probably doesn’t like interviews, and is refreshingly direct and honest. I also think he has a kind of patient intensity that compliments Bray’s explicit intensity well.
I completely agree on all points.
Although we are only 2 games in, it is refreshingly different from BL and JS coach speak/balance above all nonsense.
Gundy’s first true test is this weekend and we will see how he deals with Oregon. If the playbook goes wide open, does that mean a greater variety of run sets available or just more passing, or a combination of what is working.?
I seems that Oregon has had to open up their playbook just to avoid upsets, so perhaps advantage Beavs in the scouting department.
Go Beavs.
Yeah my biggest concern is if Oregon is actually able to force us to abandon our run game can we really rely on throwing the ball.
Passing game is obviously untested still so it could go either way. I do like how there is emphasis on getting the ball out quick to the flats/sidelines. McCoy has done a great job of doing that and I’m thankful the coaching staff hasn’t thrown in too much of the longer developing passing routes we’ve seen so much of in the past.
Just hope we can stick to our emerging identity of running the ball down our opponents throat till they literally give up like SDSU did.
Too many starry eyes. I love all the hype and possibilities, the coaching staff doing a good job, players buying in, but Oregon will win. It might not be fair, but they will win.
Interesting you guys mention Gunderson and Bray being OSU alumni. There is the skepticism and argument of nepotism, but so far I really like the way these guys coach and represent the school. Got me thinking other notable OSU coaches, seems like a good coaching tree, list includes;
Rich Brooks
Bronco Mendenhall
Jonathan Smith
Any others?
Jury is out on Bray and Gunderson, but feeling good so far.
What happens when the Beavs go 12-0 and make CFP? Will Bray and Co. stay?
I’d like to find out…if they don’t stay after 12-0, I can be much more onboard with that than what JS pulled.
The local Goodwill scores major Beav swag.
Beavers 42- 0regon -2.
Gabriel channels the ghost of Joey Harrington and throws 5 into, 3 of which are returned for touchdowns. Running backs do the rest of the work and cash in on 270 running yars and 3 more TDs.
It is my make believe score and I’m going to keep it!
Ok. How do the ducks get their safety?
Blocked extra point….F’ing Hayes ruins the shutout!
-2 points.
Interesting article about Michigan football players class action lawsuit for NIL back pay prior to rule change in 2021.
https://apple.news/AxMabufnNT3SZ2mahF8xJpQ
Ross Dellenger reporting tonight that the Pac2 are moving forward with a Pac12 rebuild with hand picked Mountain West teams.
https://x.com/RossDellenger/status/1834073091858743417?t=BcfyUq8x9plTCFBVhodwIw&s=19
Interesting that they’re only targeting 4 teams currently(Boise St, Fresno St, SDSU, Colorado St) in an attempt to get the league up to the required 8 teams to maintain “power” status (whatever that means anymore)
So if we poach 4 teams, we’re still short 2 teams. Are we anticipating Cal/Stanford will be without a conference soon?
Are we stopping at 8 teams?
We’re basically paying the MW conference to give us a few MW conference teams and then making a new MW conference.
At least Angry will get to see some games near his home town
Poaching 4 teams looks to cost around $100million in exit and penalty fees. That figure doesn’t go down till ’26 which is beyond the “grace” period for the PAC to get to 8 teams.
Chances that the NCAA will extend the grace period?……..C’mon, we’re talking about the PAC 2 here!
Link to Dellenger’s full article:
https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-pac-12-rebuilding-conference-targeting-boise-state-san-diego-state-fresno-state-colorado-state-033254424.html
This sucks
BSU, SDSU, Fresno, Colorado State…what is the goal here? B12 merger?
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/41226997/sources-boise-state-four-schools-set-join-pac-12
I dont like that we cried for support since we had our conference ripped from us, and now we’re basically doing the same shit to the MW conference by taking their bigger teams.
What is Dellingers track record on the realignment stuff? Hasn’t he been just throwing stuff out there to write articles for clickbait? I don’t really believe him. Barnes has already spoken about a 3 year timeline. I doubt they will fold on it just to poach a few MW schools at high cost.
I call clickbait on the article.
Several other reporters are now confirming it is accurate. Even our own Nick Daschel
At this point Daschel is just reporting that Dellinger has written the piece under discussion; he does add this from a “source close to the situation”:
A source close to the situation confirmed the report to The Oregonian/OregonLive. The Pac-12 is looking to rebuild a conference with football strength in mind in order to make a case for an automatic CFP berth.
https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2024/09/oregon-state-washington-state-start-pac-12-rebuild-with-4-mountain-west-schools.html
UPDATE: Per the Trib:
The Athletic’s Chris Vannini followed up Dellenger’s report, confirming the publication had also learned of the Pac-12’s plan and added that an announcement could come as soon as Thursday, Sept. 12.
https://www.portlandtribune.com/sports/report-pac-12-conference-working-to-add-four-mountain-west-schools/article_821e9b88-70bb-11ef-8b35-8f3b23e119d5.html
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5761973/2024/09/12/pac-12-expansion-boise-state-san-diego-state-fresno-state-colorado-state/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=facebookhq&source=fbhq
This always seemed to me to be the most likely ending. I never understood why the big 12 or ACC would want to add us and give us the shares of TV revenue that we would need to make it work. In all honesty, it’s not the worst. The sport is changing so fast that this could end up being a relevant conference and a decent place to be.
Just my thought. If 4 teams are willing to leave the Mountain West and pay exit fees, it means they’re being enticed with a better financial outcome than if they had just stayed put.
So maybe this means the Pac has a contingent media deal already on the table that is being used as the carrot to pull these teams away. And that carrot would have to be significantly better than what they’re currently receiving.
Would it be on par with Big12 money? No
But it would have to be pretty enticing.
So once the conference is at 6 teams(which are all regional) it will make the prospect of adding 2 or more teams to round out the conference much easier to sell.
I dont think they’re going to go after east coast teams. Has to stay regional to keep travel costs more palatable.
Cal/Stanford are likely options if the ACC folds, but I wouldnt be surprised if a few more MW teams jump ship for reduced shares. Remember, Barnes just said in that Canzano interview, “Chaos is our friend”
I was thinking that with the rumors if the ACC discussion, maybe ESPN sees these 4 plus P2 plus Cal/Stanford and maybe SMU moving west with an ACC alliance is a better deal?
They need 2 more. My guess is these are the only 4 MWC with the buyout money? But who else but Cal/Stan get you back to 8?
CW also has a minor TV deal with ACC, maybe they’re involved as well?
I’m sure the rumors will be flying soon enough.
The announcement is supposed to be official tomorrow morning and that will be the first question every reporter asks.
Wonder if CW or Apple are helping finance this?
Cal/Stanford seem most likely, if the ACC dissolves. And then if they get to 8, they can wait another 2 years for the current MW deal to expire and pull in a few other MW teams without paying exit fees.
I dont mind a football conference of
Cal, Stan, OSU, WSU, Boise, Fresno St, SDSU, CSU. It’s not great, but there are around 3 of those teams in the top 25 most years.
Right now Cal/BSU/WSU look the part
I fully expect Cal/Stanford to rejoin and Gonzaga joins for basketball, I think. I believe the additional 2 schools to 8 have already agreed and those being Cal and Stanford. My guess is they’ll add SMU when the ACC falls and another school from Texas to reach 10. Then we can go back to the old Pac-10 logo and peace is restored. Would be a more than solid football league and a really good basketball league. It will be nice to have some clarity. Rebuilding the conference was always the play. Didn’t see other leagues seriously considering OSU/WSU.
I understand how you feel, and you are right. On the other hand it seems that in this current brutal situation of conference jumping we have to deal with, it seems we can’t rebuild the Pac any other way. At least that I can see.
(for nice beaver)
Cal and Stanford are not coming back IMO. This is core six and then we’ll add more as realignment plays out. These are like minded universities that will invest in football. Teams have a fair amount of rivalries that will get great ratings… civil war, apple cup, Fresno and SDSU with other California universities. CSU vs Colorado, BSU vs NW schools, etc. I could envision Apple getting 1 premier game per week and CW getting volume. $20M per year per school. Add St Mary’s and Gonzaga for basketball and you have a great basketball conference. Grab best 2 AAC schools plus 2 in Texas and 2 from ACC once it implodes. Gets you back to 12 football conference that would be superior to B12. Good with lots of potential for other sports. This option is better than joining ACC or B12 for Beavs in long run.
I hope this is not true. It seems like folding in a poker game when you have a favorable hand. Chaos is our friend, but patience is our best friend. Charlie Brown will make the wrong decision.
agreed, complete let down
No one is coming to help, you either do it yourself or die crying in the corner.
I’m a little slow, so maybe someone can explain why the Pac has to pay for the schools to join the conference when they are ones who will financially benefit.???
I think the collective group of schools forming the Pac12 conference would financially benefit, not just the new schools. Gotta make the deal favorable enough that those 4 teams would be willing to walk away from their current situation.
My hope is by having 6 teams, this shows some strength and stability which will help make the Pac12 an attractive landing place for future schools interested in bettering their situation.
Not sure how I feel about this.
I definitely don’t like the Mountain West breaking apart. That’s a good league.
They’re going to be loaded with cash after all the exit fees. They’ll figure out a way to consolidate.
Not sure why we wouldn’t also consider UNLV, unless the money just wasn’t there for additional exit fees. They are just as financially sound as these other MWC programs and they’re in a big market with potential viewership, plus they’re currently one of the best football/basketball combined programs. IMO they bring a lot more to the table than Colorado State. CSU has ambition and that’s about it.
In strictly revenue terms, New Mexico and Wyoming also bring in about the same amount of money as the other “top-tier” MWC schools.
I read somewhere, not sure if it’s true, they may be tied to Nevada-Reno.
I think most states out side oregon and one or two others have a single board of regents for colleges in their state. That makes sense.
I don’t hate the reinvention of the Pac. OSU/WSU were always about maintaining regional relationships and not trying to sleaze their way into the new world of CFB. Taking the best of the MW and probably trying to convince Stanford & Cal to come back it the ACC bursts makes short term sense. If they can re-stabilize a bit now, there’s no reason they can’t still keep an eye on the future of realignment to see if they can’t make additional maneuvers in the future if needed.
If it’s true, I think the goal is market representation west of the Rockies.
Those 6 named account for a different market base with a few obvious options left.
I’ll guess that they already have at least 3 former PAC12 schools in negotiations to return as part of this.
Cal, Utah, ASU plus UNLV gets you to 10 within 2 years.
I’m guessing the “chaos is our friend “ means Barnes is already aware of buyers remorse for a few former PAC schools who are in play.
I’d say Stanford is gone, they will not rejoin with Fresno and Boise. But I bet Cal is kicking the tires on returning from the ACC instability.
Colorado is gone since they were the first to panic and jump, they must save face and continue with the Big12 rather than look more rash.
But Utah wasn’t happy about the collapse and didn’t really want to go. ASU was basically pulled by UA as a package deal.
Those schools bring back the Bay Area, Salt Lake, Phoenix markets and add Las Vegas with UNLV a year later and it would be a fully western US conference and a strong push for an automatic bid could be made with far less pushback.
WSU
OSU
Boise St
Fresno St
SDSU
Colorado St
Cal
Utah
ASU
UNLV
I’m not as optimistic as you about some of the ex-P12 schools, but this is clearly a first step that:
A) achieves the goal of minimizing travel and keeping our teams within a strong regional footprint
B) shows other potential teams what group they would be joining
C) Significantly closes the gap to only needing two more teams
D) De-stabilizes the MWC to the point others may consider jumping ship (unlikely because of the additional exit fees this would require)
The ex-PAC teams seem like the ones that would be most interested in the current PAC6. I assume Barnes knows something about the willingness of the ex-PAC or others to join this group. Paying $100M+ without having certainty of your final 2+ members would be a massive risk.
Pac12 is paying $11m for each of the 4 MW schools. Those schools are each paying another $17m. Cost to Beavs/Cougs is $44m not over $100m.
Those schools’ payments thrown in add up to $100M. It’s a risk for EVERYONE without good chances of 2+ more joining.
Boise gets a media share bump in the MWC, and as a group need to drop 100mil to get them out of that contract. It’s a massive massive bet without a media deal in place or at least a backdoor agreement done to have these schools come to the pac12. I think there’s a lot we aren’t hearing about this.
@Beaverpride
So you’re sure the PAC12 conference isn’t gonna help out the newcomers with that $17m apiece that they’ll be paying?
One way or the other I still think the cost to the Beavs/Cougs will end up being close to $100m.
Think of it more as four schools paying $1.7m and the Pac paying $4.4m for the next ten years.
It’s the “State” conference, as Jack once suggested!
https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2024/09/pac-12-says-it-has-accepted-4-mountain-west-schools-to-join-oregon-state-and-washington-state-for-rebuilt-conference.html
Pac12 twitter/x posted it also.
These are some of the best schools, so it’s not too bad. Hopefully this gives all those schools a recruiting bump and the entire conference winds up being strong. I can see a lot of solid CA recruits being much more interested in this conference today vs yesterday.
Gives athletes an alternative with a reasonable travel load. Bump should occur.
Someone turn the lights back on at Pac-12 Networks studio.
This is about what I expected would happen. I’m in the camp that the big12 had zero interest in going farther west and to think we would get an invite was fools gold. I’m hoping the pac2 have a media deal lined up that will give them something other then mwc money. They seem to have a plan let’s hope it works out to where we can pull ourselves out of the ditch.
Announcement timing probably good with UO at home, 12:30 game time. Fox?
Rumors starting to swirl the next two will be announced “shortly” and Stanford and Cal are both in the conversation
That would be awesome. It makes no sense for them to play out East, so there’s probably legs to this.
I’ll believe it when I see it about Cal/Stanford rejoining the Pac. I can’t imagine either of them want to be associated with Fresneck, Boise, etc.
It may be possible that the amount of disruption form all of the recent realignment and bad publicity etc has forced those who “would never” to reconsider. I think the next step is either a rejoining of 2-4 former Pac teams or an agreement with ACC to form an East/West scheduling alliance but some form of the East pod would add 2 more for the PAC12 to get to 8.
In some ways, this is just better than the constant speculation and doomsday projections, or the rumors of eventual invites to conferences that didn’t want you a year ago. And the best thing about it is that our AD, President and WSU group are all actually holding the line on the things they declared to be priorities all along. They have a regional, competitive conference without capitulating to the greed and pressure of all the networks etc, and it justifies the lawsuits to get to this point.
ACC might effectively kick them out as part of a settlement.
Remember, they only left because of the uncertainty of the rebuild. It’s not like their current revenue situation is sustainable.
funny thing is after they left, that meant a better financial situation for OSU/WSU, only having the split conference assets 2 ways vs 4.
A requirement for BSU to join the PAC 12 should be to get rid of the blue turf. It makes them look small-time and drags the rest of us along.
Yes. It’s worn out it’s welcome as a novelty.
I think they just announced a big renovation to their stadium recently. I heard something on the radio while traveling through boise this summer.
Or everyone joins them with team colored turf, Beavs/Orange, Fresno/Red… separate the confere….
Yeah, nevermind, Blech!
Presumably more money means improvements to MW facilities, changing that blue turf to green would be a great upgrade.
Orange turf with full orange home unis? It’s like camouflage, brilliant. They’ll never see it coming.
Yeah, it’s difficult watching on TV with that nasty blue turf!
It think Utah is a key to this sequence. Utah relished the chance to join the PAC12 and didn’t want to leave. They were able to group into the four corners for the Big12 but even said publicly that it wasn’t what they wanted to do.
I think Barnes has been talking ot them about returning and they have been wanting to see real movement before doing or saying anything. Utah will get $31 million tv rights payout from the Big12. They can play in the Big12 this year, win it, and leave next year without any costs.
So it only makes sense if a few things are happening right now:
1-PAC12 has a tentative media rights deal based on a lot of behind the scenes assurances of who may be joining, (I’m figuring a combo of CW, Peacock, Apple, Amazon)
2-The media deal has to be in the range of $25 mil per school with revenue enhancements based on the Apple deal details like last year as a way for individual schools to gain (meaning any school could far exceed the $25 mill based on fan interest etc and national following
3-The playoffs will become a strict numbers game of how many spots will truly be available outside of Big10/SEC. I do’t think the Big12 gets 2 bids ever, and the likelihood of getting an auto bid from the new Pac12 may be better for all members than a watered down Big12.
I don’t expect the AAC schools to be part of this arrangement with PAC12 expansion. Travel is a key issue and it will continue to be a contrasting argument against those that left.
Mark one in the integrity column if Barnes can keep this regional and avoid the kind of travel we’ve all discussed. Fits the “lunch box” mentality just fine.
I think the lack of travel and/or more reasonable travel is going to appeal to so many recruits. Travel is completely draining. I even hate vacations because of travel, so that says something deeply profound about it. When these teams begin to lose more often b/c they’re constantly tired they’re going to reassess all of this garbage.
For sure it will appeal to their families.
I like it, all of it. There is a few different scenarios in the rebuilding of the conference and how it all shakes out, so in time we shall see.
But I do know this,OSU does not need to be sitting here waiting for one of these other conferences to “decide” if we are worth the trouble. We all already know what they think by not offering to bring the Beavs or Cougs on board when the rest screwed us and dismantled the Pac-12. In other words the hell with the ACC, as well as the big 12. They are no different then the SEC or Big 10. Let’s not lick the boots of these assholes and move forward and trust the people in charge are going to get it right.
A quality OSU win Saturday, with a national audience and Fox talking about this development, would be great.
Too much to ask?
Yes. 1-2% chance they win this game. Meaning, they’d win it around 1 or 2 out of 100 tries. So sure, it’s possible, but pretty insane to expect.
Have you seen Oregon this year? No way Beavs only beat them 1-2% of the time. You lose all credibility with such a foolish statement. If you are like Colin Cowherd, you lol at the star ratings of the rosters and say such things but we know better.
The Beavs play above their star ratings and the Ducks always play below their star ratings, and so far this year is no different. Beavs have at least a 40%chance to win and I think home field is a big advantage. The main concern is refs fudging the spot, overlooking holding for ducks etc.
Lol. No. Great example of emotions leading to delusions.
Agree, Beavs have a lot better than 2% chance. Is it 40%? not sure, but somewhere between 30 and 50 seems right to me.
Not a chance it’s that high. 5% is about the highest you can realistically go.
The Jeff Sagarin ratings put it at at a 26% chance, for what it’s worth.
26% still seems way high. The Beavs win this game 26 out of 100 tries? I don’t think so. 5 out of 100 is about the max. I guess if you want to be a little delusional you can go up to 10%.
What have the ducks done this season that has you thinking that way?
I’d give it 10-15% chance. I like the Beaver staff more than theirs.
We’d tire them out with bully-ball five games into the series.
Do they have to play all 100 games back to back or do they get some rest time? Like, are we talking every week for 2 years, or…?
We opened as -3TD underdogs at home. I’m not sure what probability that translates to, but it’s definitely nowhere near 30% or 50%.
Money line now 550, isn’t that about a 20% bet? But what does Vegas know, lol
-810 if you bet on the Ducks though. So averaging the two you get 15% chance
Do we know what the availability of our previously injured projected starters is?
Is Clemons back? Wesolak? We know Voltin, East, Valsin, Howard are all out for year.
Gotta start getting some bodies back, just for depth.
Forgot Hickle is also out for the year. D-Line and WR are really thin right now
Is Wesolak hurt? I don’t think that was ever confirmed.
What is this based on? If there was a basis I would be inclined to listen, but it just seems like sour grapes to me.
It would be great and perfect, but LOTB?
Yes!
“Too much to expect, but not too much to ask”
Mary Chapin Carpenter and Joe Diffie cicra 1992 and still true today!
Colorado State and Boise State don’t have baseball so maybe baseball will plan to stay independent for a while
Here is a post copied from the Stanford Card Board:
gocard14 Wrote:
Anyone else feeling a twinge of regret?
If we could have convinced Cal to stay with us, we’d have an 8 team conference that is geographically friendly. It would also be composed entirely of schools with a history of being sneaky good at football. There would be no juggernauts, but all 8 schools historically have been at or around mid power-5 level or better for the last few decades.
I can’t say what the money would be. I’m sure it would be less then the ACC, though the penalties we took to leave the PAC and join the ACC may mitigate that somewhat.
If the ACC collapses in the next round when FSU and clemson bolt pending their litigation, I wouldn’t be shocked if we came back hat in hand.
lol since when has CSU been sneaky good at football?
Beyond the last 20 years, when Lubick was there.
That legacy is how they raised the money for a new shiny stadium. It just took a while for them to save up the money and build it.
We know how these things go.
I love that CSU is joining. I’ll get to go to games and watch the Beavs probably every other year or so. Beats traveling out to Oregon. The stadium is within walking distance of my house. This will be cool.
Great stadium right? Recently remodeled?
2017 season it opened. I actually haven’t been to it yet, but now I’ll have a reason…
OT: WSU @ UW, Lumen Field this Saturday as well.
Go Cougars!
Sounds like they’re having trouble selling tickets to that one. Costs way more than a home game and it’s at a “neutral” field in UW’s neighborhood, even though this would technically be the year WSU should be hosting.
Again, sucks for the students who normally would walk to the game, but now have to pay for transportation and tickets.
A lot of students probably haven’t left for school yet. But I can see cost of tickets being a major barrier.
Cheapest ticket (with fees included) is $86.
In an NFL sized 69K seat stadium that’s mostly empty right now.
No wonder nobody wants to go
Cougs gonna slap the leg humpers
Question: The Pac teams that left and would like to come back… what kind of contract are they now in and how much would it cost them to jump ship?
There’s no way Stanford and Cal come back to the PAC. They already made it clear they didn’t want to be with us when they decided it would be better to fly all the way across the country for athletics.
Couple thoughts:
1. All the former Pac 12 school are locked in with their current conferences. No one is bailing for the new Pac unless the ACC or BIG12 implode. The BIG12 looks pretty stable. The ACC could very easily fall apart before 7/1/26.
2. If that happens, Stanford Cal may still choose to stay in the ACC as they have previously expressed no interest in a conference that includes a Cal State school much less two.
3. Not sure how much Stanford Cal are getting from the ACC in TV rights, I’ve heard next to nothing and I’ve heard $25M/year. If the new Pac can get in that neighborhood with its TV rights, I would think we have real shot at CAL. Not sure on Stanford. They have plenty of dough and could just go independent hoping for a BIG invite that will never come.
4. My take on the short term play is if the ACC does fall apart in the next 2-3 years. The new Pac 12 wants to position themselves to be the 3rd or 4th best football conference with guaranteed CFP access and $$ distributions. ACC without FSU, Clem and Miami is right there with the new PAC. Big12 is a shadow of its former self. No premier Football brands (maybe Utah), otherwise very middle of the road. I see no reason the new Pac 12 can’t supplant either or both those two conferences in the next few years if it invests in athletics.
5. My take on the long term play here is OSU/WSU want to just move forward and Build. Everyone suspects football will break off in the next 5-10 years years and OSU/WSU want to be included. Why not form a small competitive conference that gives you exposure, a chance to build your brand and a great shot at the CFP each year. Imagine being Purdue or Indiana in the BIG. The checks are nice but do they really have a shot at any success in football or the playoff?
As final note, I’m offering high level clinics at discounted rates to the new Pac 12 members on how to stop mobile quarterbacks. Please pass the word around.
Cal and Stanford are getting a 30% share of the ACC’s media rights, which, at about $35 million per school, is only about $12 million per year to Cal and Stanford. That’s for the next seven years. Horrible deal for them.
I wouldn’t be surprised if cal and Stanford each have an out clause from the ACC. There has got to be some reason why we didn’t just take 6 mountain west schools
Yeah, the reality is that they have to know who the other 2 schools are, no chance the 4 MWC schools leaped without knowledge.
And no other schools really make sense. Who else is even a possibility?
UTSA?
Rice?
Tulane?
Memphis?
Those are the only 4 non-power schools I could even see the P2 having interest in other than old PAC members. This just feels like Cal/Stanford returning. Maybe the ACC who also has a TV deal with CW and the PAC are going to reach some sort of partnership as part of the deal. I just don’t know what other schools it could be?
No UNLV surprises me.
Per Daschle – When Barnes was asked about other schools that might joint the pac 12…
Other MWC schools? – “TBD”
Gonzaga? – “TBD”
CAL Stanford should the ACC collapse? – “Not currently a consideration”
Interesting change from his previous responses. The tenor of the article, and Barnes indication that they wanted to finalize membership ASAP, sure seemed like the plan isn’t to wait until the last minute for ACC defections before finalizing conference membership.
The only other MWC that fits what they seem to be attempting to accomplish is UNLV.
I could make a pretty sound argument for UNLV, Rice, and Tulane if you ignore the travel the last 2.
They probably want at least 1 private school for the ability to keep meeting minutes private.
Gonzaga would be great but football power was the stated goal. Feels like the current 4 wouldn’t commit without knowing. Any comments from Barnes should be taken with a grain of salt right now. Even if he knows he can’t say he does until all the i’s are dotted.
Out of left field… UNLV and… Utah?
Nothing Cal and Stanford has said in the past means much. It was all just justifying the terrible decisions they made to try and land somewhere stable. The ACC seemed much more of a sure thing back then than it does now.
Cam Rising has tetanus and is out 6-8 weeks. Get your shots, everyone!
Wild, wonder how he got it? My doctor seemed baffled when I asked for it. I dig in the dirt a lot though.
Will he get an 8th year now?
How old is he? 28?!?!
He and his kids will be able to play on the team at the same time, wild
Yeah Cal and Stanford want to be in a conference with other elite academic institutions. You can’t risk ramming your head into a bunch of idiots you might catch the dumb. Better to send your student athletes on 6 hour flights than the major risks associated with competing against lesser academic institutions.
Weird comment from Barnes in the AD PR that “the days of being humble are over.”
Was this an official policy that’s now changing???
Hopefully that just means we’re going to market the hell out of our school and conference, but not like the University of Arrogance.
My opinion – I think the answer might as well have been yes. The athletic department always seemed to think they were somehow above unabashed self promotion. Shaking their finger at the stuff the ducks do while sinking further into obscurity. The conference dissolving and the Beavs being left behind may have woken some people up. The reality is the Ducks were the Beavs about 30 years ago. They came into some money and decided they had big goals and aspirations. It paid off. The Beavs AD, to its defense, didn’t have the resources the Ducks had but at the same time it sure seemed they had little interest in marketing themselves as anything other than the underdog in a small college town.
The Beavs will now be a big fish in small pond. I hope the athletic department starts acting like it and I hope they also really pursue $$$ from boosters targeted toward branding and marketing the program as a force, not just the “little engine that could” “underdog” “best college town” stuff.
As a side note, I think Angry established this site, at lease in part, because he was frustrated with the chicken little attitude and saw this coming 20 years ago.
It doesn’t help that the team almost never won nonconference games on the road, nor was competitive when playing at the Big 10 schools. Meanwhile the team down south started doing that.
More context on his statement:
“…The days of being humble are in the past. We will move forward with an authentic pride, mindful of our core principles, but more tenacious and bolder in our approach.”
Perhaps there is still realignment in the future that builds this into a better conference but, as it stands now, this is definitely unfortunate from several perspectives.
1) who knows what the playoff future holds with autobids and whatnot, but this conference is not going to qualify for a Power conference status without a minimum of 4 more current P4 schools joining in the very near future. Honestly, I don’t think if CalFord came back (which they can’t without a completely dissolved ACC) they would be enough to tip the scale. A conf that’s primarily built with G5 schools and 2 former P5 schools is not going to get the power status.
2) this most certainly has to kill several programs OSU currently has. Let’s even assume that the P12 can get $15mill/ school…it’s still half of what the old TV money was giving. No way they can continue to subsidize the amount of programs we did as a P5 school. To me this means you need to push your chips all in on the main 4 programs, and cut everything else off.
3) I see this as a recruiting issue, primarily football. We are the Mtn West now, unless they can add several current P5 schools. Not only does the reduced spending hurt recruiting, but the competition discrepancy will turn a lot of others away. I think the chase of a P4 landing spot didn’t hurt as bad, since you could sell the illusion of better competition when you do get a bid, but now that’s gone. We know the competition is Mtn West and it’ll be a detractor more than a positive. Sure there might be a higher star player or two that don’t want the travel, etc but that’s not the majority.
4) I see the Civil War becoming the body bag game now. The gap was tough enough as a P5 school but the writing is firmly on the wall now. Talent gap will continue to grow if we stay a Mtn West conference.
Now, there are definitely positives from this. Teams and fans have to travel less. Think baseball can still thrive as there are plenty of competitive programs not in major conferences. Add in a few preseason showcases like the 1 in Texas, perhaps get some better competition for Surprise and now you’ve got some ways to build strength of schedule. Our men’s bb program is really a G5 or lower squad anyway with Tinkle so this is probably a better fit to hopefully finish in the top half of the conf and not last place. No Yucks or Dawgs, cause fuck them.
Disagree on your point 1. Colorado State is the only one of these schools that hasn’t at least been in discussions to move to a power conference. Couple that with the fact that the Big 12 (and ACC) have several G5 schools now and frankly I’d argue the P6 as constituted is right in line with the bulk of the Big 12. The Big 12 just as more schools total. But 6 of its schools were G5 schools in the last 20 years. And none of their P5 schools are powers.
As to point 4. The Civil War doesn’t exist, it died last November.
And kudos to whoever decided that the qucks no longer get to wear home uniforms in reser this year. They are wearing white jerseys like everybody else that comes in here
We can agree to disagree then. I don’t see this as a P5 conf. The top 2 schools have been relegated out of power status and couldn’t find a landing spot but yet adding 4 Mtn West teams somehow makes this a Power conference? I’d like to be wrong, just doesn’t seem likely at all. It’s true ACC added SMU, but only because SMU offered to take 0 shares for 9 years. SMU looked like ass vs Nevada, beat up on Houston Christian and lost to BYU. Not sure they’re ready for P4 status tbh.
CU and ASU weren’t relegated.
The beavs were in the top ten team last season. 10 wins the year before
lol… talent gap
People keep repeating this, as if there are only so many athletes who could possibly play at the highest levels in college football.
People need to realize it’s college football. There are good and bad teams every year. Some schools aren’t all that interested in football. They just go along to get along. Of the remaining, there are many more athletes than there are opportunities to play.
And then you need to coach them up.
Poaching coaches is the more material topic.
It’s nice when a linebacker has 4.4 speed, though.
So there isn’t a talent gap from Mtn West to P4? Silly to think that there isn’t. But we do agree on coaching. We got poached often as a Power school. Definitely will now too.
The inconsistent coaching at the G5 schools is what kills them. It’s hard enough to find a good coach, let alone one every three years.
Just ask the loser P5 schools who keep poaching these hopeful magic bullets.
I’m cautiously optimistic about where we’re headed with this, not because it compares well to where we were the last 50 years but because given where we are currently it seems like it was the best of the available options. Waiting for Chaos is a poor strategy and what happens if it doesn’t materialize and there’s a looming deadline to get to 8 members?
What I don’t like is that it feels like this all happened really quickly. From what I can tell talks with 4 started about 2 months ago. Then according to Barnes the other viable options “dissipated” (Assuming ACC and BIG12). Apparently the whole thing got serious and came together in the last week according to some articles and in the last 24 hours according to other articles. Both are probably true to some extent but feels rushed and reactionary. I doesn’t feel like this is step 1 one of a well researched grand plan in which TV revenue has been evaluated and final members are waiting in the wings etc.
I’d assume all 6 schools spent the last few months doing due diligence for this plan. They likely have a pretty good sense of what TV is offering.
It likley comes down to what OSU/WSU think is a good enough threshhold for a new media deal. Anything above $6 mil/year is a major upgrade for the MW schools. Anything under $25 mil/year is a major loss for PAC2. I’d guess that OSU/WSU will supplement their budgets out of the war-chest for the next couple of years and still try to have enough set aside to build out to 8+ teams.
I don’t think you can know what kind of TV revenue can be expected until all teams are named as the size of the TV markets will help determine the payouts.
You assume TV isn’t dictating the schools being added.
It’s also entirely possible “equal splits” aren’t what we will see so OSU knows what they are worth and will get that even if other schools get less.
I honestly dont like the idea of adding teams a lower shares. I’m all for leveling the playing field within the conference. If a UNLV comes in at a half share, what chance do they have of improving their program?
I do like the idea of the Pac12 selling naming rights and finding other ways to add revenue streams that other conferences dont have.
Sell logo space on the field. Sell ad space on jerseys. It’s gross, but it’s the easiest path to survival.
Every bowl game already sells ad space on the field, so it’s not like college football is played on sacred ground.
And I hate jersey combos anyway. Might as well plaster them with logos.
As long as OSU benefits I’m good with unequal shares.
Ultimately as long as 5 conference champs get bids, the winner of this conference should get in most years.
I can see the NASCAR type jerseys next year for sure. What’d you think of tonight’s game coach Bray? “Well, first, I’d like to thank Umpqua bank, Tillamook Ice Cream, American Dream Pizza and Les Schwab Tire for help making this game possible “
u still need 2 more teams
stanford and cal are off the board because stanford thanks they are better and cal tied to stanford?
1 Memphis – great baketball program 8-4 type football only issue is travel
2 Tulane – prive school in new orlans
3 UTSA gives u the tex market
4 rice
5 utep
6 n mex
the m west might be better off without those school if they add Montana N Dakota st S Dakota N Dajota and S dakota st or idaho
Back to the game:
From the big zero piece headed “‘That’s ingrained in us and it’s not going to happen again’: Oregon football motivated by 2022 loss at Oregon State.”
Linebacker and team captain Jeff Bassa of uck says, “It’s all personal,…Atticus (Sappington) has kind of spread the word about how they really feel about us, him coming from there.”
I liked this one:
““What made it worse in the ‘22 game, it was loud and the stadium behind us wasn’t even finished,” offensive lineman Marcus Harper II said. “… I remember those seniors on that line, (Alex) Forsyth and (Ryan) Walk and T.J. (Bass), they took that hard because they knew we had (34 points) going into that fourth quarter, it was a big margin. I remember feeling sad because it was like dang, why did we let that spread close and then we don’t go to the Pac-12 championship that year in a year where we for sure, I know we could have at least competed in that championship.”
And:
“Cornerback Jabbar Muhammad experienced Reser Stadium while at Washington last season. He’s yet to experience an OSU-UO game, but having been a part of the Apple Cup and Bedlam, Muhammad knows what to expect from a heated in-state rivalry.
“It’s a wild environment,” Muhammad said. “The fans are right there on you talking smack, real loud. Going to have to come in there on our A game. As far as the environment they’re real rowdy.”
I remember a Dawg or two walking over and talking back to the student section after the 22-20 victory…
The guy must be a moron if he’s just now hearing that the Beavs don’t like the ducks
Someone mentioned the need for at least one private school in order to have conference meeting notes etc become private and not publicly available.
Who are the possible private universities that are legitimate possibilities in the West region, with above average football program and good basketball program?
Could the new PAC poach anyone out of the Big12?
What is the exit cost for Stanford/Cal/SMU to get out of the ACC or are they packed in until Clemson can break it up?
It looks like the schools mentioned above from AAC may be too far East to fit the bill.
Stanford is the only west coast possibility unless they do a Gonzaga as member 9.
I predict Rice gets a spot if Stanford/Cal aren’t coming home. Houston market, private.
Tulane is the only other that could possibly fit the bill.
Rice/Tulane sure kills the talk of a regional league and the elimination of travel.
Maybe but I’d argue barring Stanford/Cal returning Texas is your best option for schools. And Tulane is only slightly further.
Hard no to Rice.
Nearly 8 billion reasons to at least consider Rice.
Rice and Tulane also provide respectable baseball teams. Something that Boise St and CSU do not even have teams.
Highly respected schools.
High profile media markets.
When you look at the non-MWC options they shrink real quick out west. You could maybe argue to just poach Air Force and UNLV but I think part of the “we’re not just a rebranded MWC” pitch means they need non-MWC additions.
I still really wonder how committed Cal/Stanford and the ACC are to each other but that seems increasingly more of a long shot, Wilner did bring it up on PTI so it’s not exactly an outlandish idea even at the national level. I do think anything beyond 8 football schools is likely to be diminishing returns revenue wise. Rice and Tulane give you access to the Central timezone for TV without needing 18 schools.
Hey, Tulane used to be in the SEC and Rice was in the Southwest Conference, so they have a “Power 5” history.
Rice is so bad at football that it would automatically sink the conference into G5 status, permanently.
Rice fell hard when the SWC imploded and never recovered at least in football.
This guy brings up the idea that this was in part forced by the NCAA likely going to trial as a result of the House settlement hearing. Realignment for most conferences will be on hold and OSU would miss it’s 2026 deadline.
https://x.com/ImmaculateView/status/1834295919216587009?t=mPg7L6uOXlVdlR8ly0vF2g&s=19
I’m not sure how anyone can see this being worse than our current situation.
We’re in a 2-team conference right now. Our current schedule is a Mountain West schedule and we’re paying them a million $ per game. Scheduling next year isn’t going to be any easier and probably more expensive. Recruiting certainly isn’t getting easier if we’re sitting around with no plan other than hoping another conference is gracious enough to let us in.
Honestly, this may not be ideal in some fans’ minds, but it is way better than what we have now.
Sorry, but this feels like a huge letdown.
The only thing that would make this palatable would be getting back a couple of the old PAC teams.
Dad said he was going out to buy a new car and had Mercedes and BMW brochures on the table… Comes back in a used Yugo.
Hey hey, it’s Adobe…..the little car that’s made out of clay
Being in a conference affiliation with Boise State and Fresno State is enough to make me projectile vomit.
Hahaha!!!! Not a fan, eh?
Not so much -)
Rather uppity response if you ask me. If we’re honest with ourselves, as a football program, this is about where we belong.
As a purebred hybrid rodent, I can afford to be uppity lol
Usually I feel alot better after I vomit. Let er rip!
Agreed.
We should consider academic and respectability standards for being in the conference. Especially when it comes to Fresno State.
I await your very high numbers of thumbs down….
Serious question, do you feel like your degree is tarnished? That people will assume you went to a ‘less than’ college program?
It’s all about what you make of your degree and the connections you make while in school.
Tieing a college’s academic reputation to their athletic conference is asinine.
Now, if you have to lower your academic standards to compete in athletics, then that’s a problem. I don’t think that’s going to happen at Oregon State.
Was that MHver dude just making up shit for the last six months? My only thought is I think it’s better than being independent or joining the Mountain West. The rest remains to be determined.
I honestly don’t think so, but I also think his sources are exclusively from the WVU/B12 perspective, and so anything he leaked was done so with the intent to move the needle in a favorable direction for those parties while whatever back room deals were being negotiated.
Ultimately, I think the House Settlement and ACC timeline made this the obvious and only play because it extends the time period in which those saga’s are going to play out, and in the meantime a rebuilt Pac-12 can strengthen their position in numbers before the next big dominos fall rather than wait in limbo with zero leverage or control of their situation.
Saturday weather ” partly sunny, with a high near 71. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.”
Players picked all black uniforms.
Crowd encouraged to “orange out.”
SDSU ad gets choked up at presser…pac12, it just means more
https://www.cbs8.com/article/sports/ncaa/aztecs/san-diego-state-aztecs-join-pac-12-conference/509-6eb6694c-0ea1-4990-8d9d-11c1e4f488ff
So, if you don’t think the Beavers have no chance Saturday, what do you look for in a loss? Competitiveness? Something particular from the coaching staff, particular players? The chance to say “I told you so”?
I had this as a certain loss preseason, and didn’t think they should have scheduled the game. But the coaching staff, which I feared valued alumni loyalty over resume diversity, has impressed me so far with the patience to stick with what works (running game), the relatively clean play (Chisom excepted), and that the coaches or team haven’t self-inflicted losses. This may be one of the better two game starts we’ve seen by a NEW staff, let alone someone’s first gig as HC, OC, and OL coach (Heyward has been a DC before, correct?).
I’ll be happy if this staff can keep its composure, keep the players composed, avoid self-inflicted wounds, make it competitive on a national stage, and go to CAL with this as their only loss. I’d like to see Collins & Johnson have great games for the D, strong running game again, a receiver(s) besides Walker emerge, JohnsonM’s continued development at QB, a couple TOs for the Beavers, and the team to leave the game with confidence.
They “should” likely lose by 10 given “talent and athleticism gaps,” but I won’t be surprised at all if they win.
I expect Beavs will win. Crazy to say so given what I thought would happen prior to season
“….don’t think the Beavers have no chance ”
Bwahahaha!
“…a chance”
Heyward has not been a DC before. He has always coached position groups. But he was probably the most qualified based on what he has done as a position coach.
He was co-DC at UO and DC at UNLV last year.
He was with the raiders last year but close. UNLV in 2022. I like that he has pro and college experience.
The Beavs definitely have a chance to win, but I would say slightly higher chance to lose. If they do lose, I still expect an extremely competitive game. They have to show they can still compete with the P4 conferences. If they get blown out it will be a huge let down and eye-opener.
A competitive game is all I hope for.
While I’m glad we haven’t had to empty the playbook up to this point, I also don’t really know what to think of expect from our passing game since we haven’t really used it. Seems very likely that we’ll need it for those crucial first downs and to ease up on Yucks loading the box. This is a much better and physically stronger defense than we’ve faced yet and I wouldn’t expect the running game to be as dominant as the previous weeks. If this turns into a shootout type situation, are we equipped to do that? I haven’t watched much of the Yucks games, but seems like they’ve not been capitalizing on opportunities yet this year. Offense is over 400yds a game, so they can move the ball, but maybe defense isn’t as good as last year too? Wish we had already played Purdue so we’d have a P4 game under our belt and a better idea of how we stack up vs similar size and talent. Being at home is an advantage for sure so I think we can be very competitive but I still think the edge goes to the Yucks. Our FG unit is ass and it could very well end up being a reason for a loss
In a match of 50 yds fgs we win though. Sappington can’t hit anything beyond 38 yards. Hayes is good for at least 1/3 beyond 40 lol…
Apparently Ducks are doing very well in “passes defensed.” Curious if Lil McCoy can thread the needle, deal with a 6’6″ DL collapsing the pocket…hoping Johnson gets a few series to show his speed. Need to get TEs involved, RB screens…WRs could get locked down…
Weather might be too cold
For Johnson to play tomorrow.
Listening to 1080 The Fan this morning and they were discussing their main concern with the quacks is leadership. There’s not a veteran leader on offense. You have Gabriel and Stewart who were brought in and are 1 and done but haven’t been around the program very long. I think playing them early in the year is very helpful. Hopefully the moral/unity of the Beavs can keep the team focused for four quarters and pull out a win.
Lack of leadership and unity need to be exploited if the Beavs are to win.
Said it before, get a critical sack or int early and watch the ucks fade.
I’d love to see the ducks “fade”, but they showed against Boise St that there is talent and big plays can keep them interested for a time. The key is a prolonged period of frustration that they can’t “big play” their way out of. That is when the will fold…
Good points, noteworthy that it took highlight plays on special teams to keep them going.
Saw Gabriel announced he and his girl got engaged this week
Congratulations to them. I hope they’re celebrating hard all week and he’s depleted/distracted by game day
Depleted…. I see what you did there.
I’m just saying, I wouldn’t be opposed to him having a flaccid performance on Saturday. Not sure what you’re getting at….
He might show up … soft?
Tomorrow will not be the climax of his week. Noted.
I presume the next two schools that could be added are Air Force and Wyoming so that CSU’s travel costs are reduced.
Doubtful if they’re going for programs that can afford the move. AFA’s athletic revenue is fairly small. Wyo may be in better financial shape, but the prestige/recent success/overall potential isn’t there.
I feel like Air Force belongs in the American Athletic Conference anyway. They already have Army/Navy. It’s America!
Conceivably, Calford gets out of the ACC contract for 1 3rd the price tag, because the fees for leaving the conference are tied to distributions. SMU would be able to skate for less.
I doubt they’re the targets, because they seem to be tied at the hip, and we only want 2 more. As mentioned, a private school makes privacy a thing. I would say a Zags/Hawai’i set-up would be better than looking east. Hawai’i has their own TV deal for the islands and could receive a partial share on football only, while staying in the Big West in other sports. If football only, we can hammer the extra content on the mainland with the Hawai’i Rule. In aggregate, Zags/Hawai’i are a great football bottom-feeder and big brand. And the story of the Pac helping them build out of their current predicament into a functioning program would make for some feel-good stories the media can run with.
Plus, it plants a stake for recruiting and being able to come home to play every couple years.
Cons would be maybe not adding enough value, if Zags hoops doesn’t make up for current Hawai’i football deficiencies.
Otherwise, all I see out east for privates is Tulane. And the second team would likely be UNT, with their size, academics, and especially their location.
And if the ACC breaks, SMU, UTSA and others are on the table for a central division.
The only reason I would like Hawaii is for the obvious recruiting benefit. Otherwise, the travel just makes it prohibitive.
Same with any East Cost time zone teams. Just doesn’t fit with Barnes stated claim:
“the prioritization of our student-athletes will always remain our guiding light. Their ability to compete at a high level and our emphasis on their holistic well-being were top of mind in every conversation.”
Texas is the furthest I would think they’d be willing to expand, again for recruiting benefits mostly, but also TV market.
I think we’ll ultimately land on Cal/Stanford/UNLV and stop at 9 teams. 8 team conference schedule with a 4 team non-con schedule follows the SEC scheduling model and give your conference the better chance to stay highly ranked, as they’re not all beating each other up unnecessarily.
Question, if SMU’s exit fee is tied to their revenue distribution, and they’re actually paying to be part of the ACC currently, does that mean the ACC needs to pay them if they leave?
UNlV and the PAC have to find the money to pay for their exit, though
Roulette table? I think there’s one in Vegas.
Hawai’i travel would be for football only. Zags would play the Olympic sports.
And I hear Utah likes to recruit the islands… could be a good pair to fill out the 8.
The only thing for Utah (and any other school in a P4) is if the money and travel costs come anywhere near what they get now.
Calford would have more incentive in this department.
I also think the 6 Pac has to come to consensus on maybe taking lower shares for a couple years to entice a Utah or Calford, like we did with the LA schools back in 2012, except this time we already have a functioning network and know how to use it.
This is provably why they stopped at 6 and want to discuss the last 2.
Lower shares for more visible brands, or spend some some of the higher distributions on increased travel to 2 central zone schools. In the end, the lower shares in a more brand-heavy conference could be the same payout as equal shares and travel in the other.
I like the thinking with a 9 team conference ofr the short-term, and gaming the schedule like SEC in order to assure a high possibility of an undefeated or 1 loss champion.
Learn from the previous years and how the rest of the conferences gamed it for themselves also.
I also like the idea of Cal/Stanford returning with little penalty to get out of the ACC. This sounds plausible and possible. Although Stanford may not want any part of the MWC schools as conference mates.
It seems like the Vegas market is a priority for UNLV joining and it is probably the one snag they are waiting for still.
Another interesting idea is to test the Brett Yornak control or calling his bluff, by attempting to poach couple of the western-most Big12 schools, or even an entire block of them. Such as-Utah, ASU, for starters and maybe try to get K St, Iowa St, Texas Tech, TCU
It almost looks like a go for broke gamble is in play and why not? If there is a shot to swing for the fences and cripple the Big 12, and the MWC, pull Cal back from the east coast and rebuild Pac12 all in the same sequence it would be amazing and all naysayers would be confounded.
WSU
OSU
BSU
FSU
CSU
SDSU
Cal
UNLV
Utah
ASU
K ST
Iowa St
Texas Tech
TCU
Yeah I’m not sure why cal/furd have to be tied together. They have a rivalry, I get that but honestly they threw ours in the trash without thought or care.
From what I remember cal is cash strapped, less travel for their ‘student athletes’ and less cost for the school along. As for furd, if they don’t want to ‘stoop’ to the state school stigma (not sure how that works anyway if you have the scholastic record of furd) then they can stay in a sinking acc and make less money while shoving their kids on long ass flights.
The more I think about it, the more certain I am that if it’s not a current P4 school it needs to be schools from the top of the AAC pecking order. If you want to sell this as the 5th Power Conference adding Memphis, Tulane, and UTSA or Rice is probably your best bet.
Chopping off the top of the 2 best G5 conferences is sellable as a power conference, adding more MWC or lower level G5 conference schools seems like it would hurt that cause.
I think this plus Gonzaga is a perfect western conference.
If only they had a football team.
No need.
9 football schools and 10 basketball schools is the perfect number.
It feels like this is a decent base to begin with; if they’re able to secure commitment from a couple of schools with programs that have a perennial history of players that went on to have a successful professional career, that will help raise the profile of the restructured conference.
I’m going to say it- Beavs may beat the ducks by 2-3 touchdowns, and may make it look easy.
Final score Beavs 31- ducks 14
My reasoning is this:
Ducks-
Ducks will lack focus, even though they say the right things, they aren’t a program that can stay focused.
Ducks aren’t trusting each other, and too many new guys still figuring out their system.
Oline issues for Ducks leads to all other issue on the offense.
Gabriel has been good with time, but he is also distracted this week with his proposal stuff.
They are going to rely on tryign to get big plays, form all phases in order to win, and those plays won’t materialize
Beavs-
Bray and this team have shown an ultra focused approach even all of the new faces
Home field
Discipline and great tackling,
D-line play is better than expected and will get to Gabriel
Defense is better than expected and Ducks will struggle to score without big play touchdowns
Gundy will call the game to win, running game ability
McCoy will have a better game than Gabriel
If OSU gets to a 2 score lead, and can just maul them with the run, it will be over. If Ducks hit on a couple of explosion plays to score, the game will be close. I don’t think the Ducks are consistent enough to blow out the Beavs, and I think there is a slim chance the Beavs can roll to a big win, but I do think the Beavs can win a controlled demolition of the Ducks, which may be more enjoyable.
Go Beavs!
I feel like the teams we added are competition to us which is good for us. I also feel like this move will help us hang on to some current players and help us attract talent verses not because we were hanging out there. I would have liked to B12 because I still wanted to play against some previous PAC teams but this is better then submitting to the MWC or Big Sky.
Yeah, the last couple teams we add are former Pac schools (Utah???) or least power 4 schools. I really like that the teams are out west.
Thinking that CU-CSU game tomorrow night could get ugly, especially after last years game in Boulder. Lots of cheap shots and dirty plays. Thats where the HC needs to be ejected along with a player for a flagrant personnal foul.
One of the main cheap shot artists is sitting out with a broken arm
A little sports psychology, sorta:
Beavs are being told by nearly everyone that they can’t come within 7-12 points of the team from nike,
Nike is being told they have disappointed the experts primarily because of substandard Oline play.
Does this all lead to Beavs being more unified than nike?
Seems a good chance a few ucks are focusing on the line and not on their own need to be sharp.
Will it matter?
I think we can guess what the focus is for adding the next set of teams and it will help us decipher what may be next. Based on Barnes statements and inferring from the 4 already invited, we might Sat the priorities are:
-Regional
-Passionate fanbase, with a history of football success
-Excited to be part of a new PAC rebuild
– Financial soundness
-Stadiums with recent or planned renovations
-Linked to top 50 tv markets
Colorado St is quite far from the rest and could be a clue to where the next set is coming from also.
Based on the criteria, and needing at least 1 private school for confidentiality, can we guess who is next? I’m shifting away from expecting any former PAC schools to return in the short term, and actually wonder how well they would be received if they tried to return. A lot of water under the bridge but also a lot of betrayal for those “inside the building”.
Set aside Cal, Stanford, Utah, ASU, even UCLA- who all may at some point rethink but not yet.
Set aside any current Big10, SEC, ACC members and we are left with either attempting a full assault on the western flank of the Big12, or gutting the top of the best of the P5 schools from the Mississippi westward. This leave a few schools within the descriptions above that match with the MWC schools:
Tulane- recent success and a solid football history, New Orleans market
Memphis- recent success, solid football program, Memphis tv market
UTSA- upcoming program, Texas, San Antonio market
Texas State- also upcoming football program located between Austin and San Antonio
North Texas-Dallas Ft Worth market
Rice- Houston market with deep pockets and not much football success
SMU- the Oregon of Texas football, think they can buy their way to a championship, deep pocket oil boosters, Dallas market
Gonzaga- an obvious invite focused on basketball
St Mary’s- easy invite to pair with Gonzaga as a joint entry without football but very good for NCAA basketball benefits to the league
Long shots:
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
BYU
I expect them to extend to 10 and add the next 4 who clearly meet the criteria. My guess is:
Tulane -also the private school desired for records to be confidential
Memphis
And probably 2 of 3 between North Texas, UTSA and Rice depending on how they respond.
This takes the top of the MW and the top of the AAC, which just took the top of Cpnference USA in the past year. Several of these schools have just jumped conferences and may not be too concerned about jumping again, good or bad, I’m not sure.
So we are still held at a P5 status by many but it is a broader footprint of football competitive schools in many major markets and California/Texas recruiting as well as the best of the rest for 2/3 of the country geographically. TV slots can range from the early kickoffs to PAC12 after dark throughout any Saturday. Streaming and CW can get the conference into 99% of homes and you aren’t at the mercy of ESPN of the dreaded PAC12 network any longer.
A new media rights deal should be a short term nimble deal and could be based on the Apple subscription with “bonus” per school basis or have revenue weighted based on school successes etc.
The wildcard plays would be to see where the Big12 schools and former PAC12 schools sit after a successful year or 2. Then maybe you add 3-4 quality schools from those ranks as well.
Might not be the worst situation in 2 years.
Agree that former P12 schools are out. Disagree on 10. It will stop at 8 or 9 football members until media deal is signed. Seems Tulane is already in serious conversations. They are next. I think UNLV would be accepted if they foot their own bill but there are reports UNLV wants to be paired with Nevada. I don’t think P12 agrees to this yet. They will put UNLV and Nevada on hold as backup plan as they explore other options. If ACC implodes within next 3-6 months, SMU will be the target. UTSA and Rice are backup plans to SMU. Eventually I believe that UNLV agrees to drop Nevada and ACC implodes. SMU and UNLV added 8th and 9th members.
So, Tulane, UNLV, and SMU all join which keeps the conference geographically balanced west of Mississippi. All would join at no additional cost to the conference. All would provide key markets that would increase media deal value. This is plan A for conference.
If ACC doesn’t implode, plan B would be Tulane, UNLV and 1 Texas school.
Plan C is Tulane and UTSA or Rice. Pause at 8 members to maximize per team payout.
Plan D is Tulane, UNLV, Nevada. Not ideal for conference because it doesn’t add Texas school and adds too many MWC teams without bringing much value. I believe only 4 MWC teams were added to minimize perception that this is the MWC rebranded to P12.
Note: wildcard is GCU. This taps PHX market with a university that has a rapidly growing alumni base and has shown it’s willing to invest in athletics. Not a football add but could be paired with Gonzaga for other sports. Could also see other WCC teams added for other sports in long run.
If plan A, B, or C is achieved, media deal could exceed $20m per team per year. Plan D might be half of that amount. I think the media deal is 2-3 years to provide flexibility to add new teams and get ahead of other conferences next media deal. In 2-3 years, many of the former P12 teams could come back after conference is rebuilt and media value is established. Also possible that some P12 members would get invite to B12 or B10 so all members won’t want to lock into anything long term until the conference proves it can truly work and get significant media contract.
Finally, Tulane is also key because they are private which allows conference meeting to be kept private by holding meetings at Tulane campus. Need at least 1 private school.
Technically Tulane is east (and north and west) of the Mississippi.
UNLV downs Kansas at Kansas. Second win of the three against Big-12.
UNLV comes back from a 17-3 deficit to beat Kansas 23-20.
Matt Brown of Extra Points says his sources are telling him:
-Calford is really unlikely due to ACC GOR and poor Olympic sport fit
-AAC teams are the most likely
-Tulane has hired consultants to advise on a move
-Memphis, Rice and UTSA are all likely interested
The poor Olympic fit is a thing for at least Stanford. They were already ACC members in field hockey.
Dirk Diggler is now reporting that his sources are telling him that Utah and BYU have been able to penetrate the grant of rights contract language and will be the next to join the Pac 12 conference.
They might just be soaking.
lol
Utah never signed one.
If not for that, I would never suggest they are a possibility.
K State kicked Zona’s teeth in last night 31-7
OLive picking Ducks 45-20, must think they’re going to put it all together today.
Over at USAToday, all staff are picking the Ducks.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2024/09/12/college-football-week-3-predictions-picks/75145872007/
1 in 6 picks WSU over UW today….
Can a mod put up a game thread I’m out on the bike until around 1 so that’s pushing it…
Gotcha covered, set to go up at 11:30
I’m still amazed that Adam Sandler does all of his comedy-movie stuff but still has time to be the head coach at Wisconsin.
How does Stream east work? None of the links actually open a video.
Man, I feel older than I should right now.
There is a cool place with a consolidated list. Be a good “SPORT” and “SURGE” the basketball to the “NET”.
You may just get a Sports Urge if you visit that site
Try methstreams it’s been working way better.
Holy shit, the Beavs running game sure protected DJ “PU” last season. Memphis is up 10-0 2nd quarter, DJ threw a terrible dead duck interception and a bunch of short passes.
DJ is also in a very big spotlight and early game times for national audiences to see his frailties. It is unfortunate for him because he is right back to who he was at Clemson and everyone is being reminded why he was benched by Dabo.
DJU may be a nice guy and a good locker room guy but he isn’t going to uplift a program and is actually a hindrance on the field.
FSU is headed toward irrelevancy and the shine on Norvell will wear off quickly if they start the season 0-3.