Beavs looked like the better team tonight, so it would have been a shame if they lost. Even when playing poorly they looked better than past editions. Hard to explain or put into words…

I've been waiting forever ('06) for a Beaver team that had supreme confidence. These guys have it now. Good test tonight to be behind on the road and pull it out. Another boost to the confidence.

The defense was getting props in pregame media…they'll still be covering this Oregon State story, but I think they will begin to focus on Mannion now. Defense looks good when Martin and Robinson aren't in there. Those guys missing plays results in 14 points, at least. Robinson flailed on the screen that went for like 50, and Martin got torched by Buckner. Beavs need to recruit some CBs. Martin cannot play at this level, but that's a problem for next year.

Kostol had another great game. 5 punts for ~43 yard average. We're not noticing the punter; that's how punting is supposed to be.

Romaine, on the other hand…

Beavs will likely jump to #12 in the polls. They've played the hardest schedule of anyone thus far, and there's a good case they should be in the top 10 (if not top 5). The defensive performance likely keeps them out of the top 10. I expect them to jump a team like Texas, though, who almost lost to Okie State (who got blasted by AZ). Ohio State will likely stagnate in the polls. Bad win for them today. #14 (TCU) and #17 (Clemson) weren't impressive today. Stanford will drop into the low 20s. So with all that shifting and leapfrogging #12 sounds about right.

Oh, and the fake bubble screen/TD to Wheaton was genius–best play call I've ever seen by Riley (loved his 4th down play call to Stroughter vs Missouri in 2006, too). He's a great play caller for the most part. Only three bad calls all night. Langsdorf would have had three bad calls on the first drive. It is such a relief.

Like most of you guys, I feel good about this game. The 3-3-5 scheme does concern me a little, though. Think about it–Beavs strength is passing, and AZ will have 5 defenders back there. With only 3 down linemen I think the game plan should be "run the ball". Do the Beavs have the horses to do it? We know they can pass. This is a ground game test. The OL is so improved that I think they'll pull it off…I'm not expecting Mannion to have a huge night. Probably lots of check downs and horizontal passes. Think the running game and D have to win this one. Should be an interesting give and take with AZ's safety play.

I'm thinking something like 24-20, Beavs. Mannion 1TD, Storm Woods 2 TDs, D stand to win it.

I once wrote that the Beavs were quietly building a good roster, because they were.

http://angrybeavs.com/football/6613

Some picks are wrong. e.g. Katz the obvious mistake (though he is doing great at SDSU so far). Also, I like Murphy more than Watkins or Lagrone (no longer on the roster), and Zimmerman changed positions, etc. But overall I think it was a good analysis for the time, given what we knew.

Now, do I think we're going to the Rose Bowl this year? No. But back in 2011 I could see the recruiting class was good, and the roster talent was improving via recruiting and 2012 attrition. This goes along with my other posts describing why Riley would have the Beavs at 8 wins again. I'm not bearish on Riley if you want max 8 wins (in a 12 game season); I am bearish on Riley if you want BCS games, a Rose Bowl, etc.

I hope this post helps clear that up. I see many people writing "eat crow, Angry!" as if Riley has accomplished greatness, or I'm completely blind to improvement (see the date of that article: I noticed the improvement long before many fans). I'm excited about the 2-0 start. I saw the 2012 team being good a while back. Again, if you are content with 8 wins then I can see why you love Riley. For those of us who want BCS games, you can hopefully see why we don't love Riley.

Now, moving forward…I'm thrilled with the season thus far. The attention to detail, intensity, execution are all at 90% or so (well above past levels), but still not elite. Riley calling plays–something we begged for here–is making a huge difference. Bray and Brennen are adding intensity to their units. Confidence is high. I'm loving what I see. But, it's all with a grain of salt since Riley's at the helm, and I know he has a cap. Sorry, I just will feel that way until he proves me wrong. It's what, 12 years and he hasn't, so I'm going with proven history over speculation, hope, etc.
 

A lot of fans watched Arizona get blasted by the Ducks, and now that OSU is 2-0, they're thinking this should be an easy win. However, each week is different in this and any league. Talent wise, Arizona is comparable to UCLA. They run a similar offense and have a solid defense (they hung with Oregon much of the first half; the offensive woes hurt the defense). To me, that Duck game was closer than the score.

Point being, Beavs and their fans shouldn't take Arizona for granted.

The QB is mobile, which, while I am slowly becoming a believer in this team being good (not great),  I am still not convinced the Beavs can stop. Hundley ran for 32 yards and a TD. Scott is not as good a passer, but he's a better, faster runner. If I'm Banker, I stack the box and force Scott to pass, then put a spy on him. Haven't been impressed with Banker's schemes, even though the media is gushing about him (I keep saying this, but I see more Bray influence in the LB corp mentality than Banker influence in the schemes).

Conditioning is always an issue in Arizona. So our lack of depth could be a factor.

And…Vegas likes AZ despite what happened last week. The line is AZ -3 (which I think is fair—last week's was a bad line).

As good as things are right now, the Beavs will not go undefeated, and they'll probably lose games we feel they should win. This is because each week is a reset. One team is high, while the other is hungry. Matchups and mismatches are different. Etc.

To me, the key to this game is the Beavs wanting greatness…not being complacent with the 2-0 start. When a team exceeds expectations, there is a tendency to think there's room for error, leeway, that a loss isn't the end of the world. Great teams overcome the temptation to slack. In that regard, I think this is a test.  I'm not going to pick any games because I frankly don't know how good the Beavs are at this point, but I do think the line is fair and accurate and a good starting point. I'd probably take the Beavs +3 and buy one point to be safe, as there is every reason to believe this will be another close game. If the Beavs want to make a national statement, come out hungry and blow AZ out. You'd see a huge move in the polls, as some have the Beavs #1 right now since they have the most difficult SOS.

One last thing: I have seen leadership emerge. Wynn, Cooks, Mannion, and coach Bray all stand out as natural born leaders. These guys are all business and have the personalities to make everyone around them more intense. It's refreshing.