Like most of you guys, I feel good about this game. The 3-3-5 scheme does concern me a little, though. Think about it–Beavs strength is passing, and AZ will have 5 defenders back there. With only 3 down linemen I think the game plan should be "run the ball". Do the Beavs have the horses to do it? We know they can pass. This is a ground game test. The OL is so improved that I think they'll pull it off…I'm not expecting Mannion to have a huge night. Probably lots of check downs and horizontal passes. Think the running game and D have to win this one. Should be an interesting give and take with AZ's safety play.

I'm thinking something like 24-20, Beavs. Mannion 1TD, Storm Woods 2 TDs, D stand to win it.

I once wrote that the Beavs were quietly building a good roster, because they were.

http://angrybeavs.com/football/6613

Some picks are wrong. e.g. Katz the obvious mistake (though he is doing great at SDSU so far). Also, I like Murphy more than Watkins or Lagrone (no longer on the roster), and Zimmerman changed positions, etc. But overall I think it was a good analysis for the time, given what we knew.

Now, do I think we're going to the Rose Bowl this year? No. But back in 2011 I could see the recruiting class was good, and the roster talent was improving via recruiting and 2012 attrition. This goes along with my other posts describing why Riley would have the Beavs at 8 wins again. I'm not bearish on Riley if you want max 8 wins (in a 12 game season); I am bearish on Riley if you want BCS games, a Rose Bowl, etc.

I hope this post helps clear that up. I see many people writing "eat crow, Angry!" as if Riley has accomplished greatness, or I'm completely blind to improvement (see the date of that article: I noticed the improvement long before many fans). I'm excited about the 2-0 start. I saw the 2012 team being good a while back. Again, if you are content with 8 wins then I can see why you love Riley. For those of us who want BCS games, you can hopefully see why we don't love Riley.

Now, moving forward…I'm thrilled with the season thus far. The attention to detail, intensity, execution are all at 90% or so (well above past levels), but still not elite. Riley calling plays–something we begged for here–is making a huge difference. Bray and Brennen are adding intensity to their units. Confidence is high. I'm loving what I see. But, it's all with a grain of salt since Riley's at the helm, and I know he has a cap. Sorry, I just will feel that way until he proves me wrong. It's what, 12 years and he hasn't, so I'm going with proven history over speculation, hope, etc.
 

A lot of fans watched Arizona get blasted by the Ducks, and now that OSU is 2-0, they're thinking this should be an easy win. However, each week is different in this and any league. Talent wise, Arizona is comparable to UCLA. They run a similar offense and have a solid defense (they hung with Oregon much of the first half; the offensive woes hurt the defense). To me, that Duck game was closer than the score.

Point being, Beavs and their fans shouldn't take Arizona for granted.

The QB is mobile, which, while I am slowly becoming a believer in this team being good (not great),  I am still not convinced the Beavs can stop. Hundley ran for 32 yards and a TD. Scott is not as good a passer, but he's a better, faster runner. If I'm Banker, I stack the box and force Scott to pass, then put a spy on him. Haven't been impressed with Banker's schemes, even though the media is gushing about him (I keep saying this, but I see more Bray influence in the LB corp mentality than Banker influence in the schemes).

Conditioning is always an issue in Arizona. So our lack of depth could be a factor.

And…Vegas likes AZ despite what happened last week. The line is AZ -3 (which I think is fair—last week's was a bad line).

As good as things are right now, the Beavs will not go undefeated, and they'll probably lose games we feel they should win. This is because each week is a reset. One team is high, while the other is hungry. Matchups and mismatches are different. Etc.

To me, the key to this game is the Beavs wanting greatness…not being complacent with the 2-0 start. When a team exceeds expectations, there is a tendency to think there's room for error, leeway, that a loss isn't the end of the world. Great teams overcome the temptation to slack. In that regard, I think this is a test.  I'm not going to pick any games because I frankly don't know how good the Beavs are at this point, but I do think the line is fair and accurate and a good starting point. I'd probably take the Beavs +3 and buy one point to be safe, as there is every reason to believe this will be another close game. If the Beavs want to make a national statement, come out hungry and blow AZ out. You'd see a huge move in the polls, as some have the Beavs #1 right now since they have the most difficult SOS.

One last thing: I have seen leadership emerge. Wynn, Cooks, Mannion, and coach Bray all stand out as natural born leaders. These guys are all business and have the personalities to make everyone around them more intense. It's refreshing.

The title says it all: are the Beavers for real? What do you think? Are all you bears buying in? And bulls thinking BCS game?

This looks like the best Beav team since '06, but I'm still thinking Riley has an 8 win cap.

Also, as they start to become favored in games, how does this young team react?

Did you see enough today to say they can neutralize a mobile QB?

Tough questions that'll be interesting to watch as this season progresses.

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What I saw today:

Nothing to complain about, really. I disagree with Riley taking a knee before the half, but otherwise he coached a good game with no major errors. Banker was getting a lot of love on TV…gotta wonder how much Bray is influencing the LBs (and thus overall D), as they seem the most improved unit. D-line looks surprisingly stout. Knew the ends would be very good, but the DTs are holding their own. Serviceable is good enough versus this level of competition. Not sure it will be versus elite teams (Oregon is probably the only elite team the Beavs play this year).

Offense looked good. Mannion played most of the game in a 10-15 yard box (many YAC for the WRs), which was a bit disturbing. Woods looked good, but seemed to get dinged up on every carry. Agnew remains a liability (though he's pretty good when he can hang on to the ball). Too much Jenkins (and I think York?)…give those touches to Anderson or anyone else.

Kostel looks pretty good. Romaine's FGs were so easy I could make them, so we can't take much away from his performance. He didn't get any touchbacks from what I remember, which is discouraging given the new (terrible) rules.

Intangibles: all decent…team chemistry looks great.

Would like more detail, execution, and better play calling in the redzone.

Overall, a nice win. Clearly this team is better than the past two, but still some things that need cleaning up. I'm thinking all the extra practice time might be benefiting the Beavs…it'll be interesting to see if teams exploit weakness (e.g. safety play has been poor) now that there's game film out there.

I'm thinking the Beavs will be ranked #19 on Monday, leapfrogging Arizona (who will lose tonight), thus making them favorites next week. It'll be interesting to watch how that pans out.

The spread has dropped from -11 to -7.5, Bruins. People are starting to wise up.

If Banker could stop mobile QBs, I'd probably take the Beavs today. UCLA is on a high and patting themselves on the back; the have USC next weekend and likely are thinking about that game. Beavs seem to have some confidence and swagger.

That darn mobile QB, though.

If Banker can somehow figure out a way to stop him, I think the Beavs take this one. Maybe we'll see Trent Bray's influence on the LB corp again and they'll play fast and make the tackles. I am torn because I like the Beav's chances yet I have no faith in Banker stopping Hundley or the read option formations. I do have faith in Bray, but how much influence does he have? Tough call this early in the season. I'm changing my pick from UCLA to a pick 'em/FG game. Team with the ball last wins.

Edit: Beavs redzone offense has been bad for several years, and almost killed them in week 2. That will be another key.