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Gebbia vs Nolan

270

This is the first year in forever, maybe ever, where I don’t care who wins the QB job. I have Nolan as a 4-star, and I think I had Gebbia as a 4 or 5-star. Both are about equal on tape with their passing ability and grit. Nolan shows better wheels.

Who do you like winning the job? Anyone else feel the same as me where this is the first year where even though there is a competition, you don’t care who wins?

What separates the winner from the loser?

Very good situation to be in: we should have a great starter and backup either way. Let’s hope the loser doesn’t transfer.

270 COMMENTS

  1. I want Nolan. I feel he is the guy. His athleticism and he’s more mobile, which is needed in today’s game. I can’t wait for the Spring Game. The FSU transfer will help either QB.

  2. No issues with either as both are very talented. If Nolan starts, he’s beaten out a guy with 2 years in the system. If Gebbia starts, we know we have a guy that can make plays and will only get better with experience. Win win baby!

  3. I think it’s nice to actually have a competition with 2 very capable QBs. I’m in for whoever’s the best. Personally I think its Gebbia with the knowledge of the play book. But I also assume the playbook is going to change dramatically with 2 qbs who can hurt defenses with their legs. The future is looking bright.
    Also RIP Kobe.

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    The loser for the starting job will transfer — wasn’t three out of four of the CFP QBs transfers? JS will be loyal to Gebbia, unless the falloff in performance is so great he can’t ignore it. Expect Gebbia to start, and Nolan to leave the program and enter the transfer portal — playing time is more important for their NFL future.

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    Here are my quick impressions of the film for both.

    Nolan:
    Film here: https://www.hudl.com/video/3/3483288/5d890acabed6890c248b3ede
    More of a playmaker with his legs. He’ll find his way out of pressure and scramble to extend the drive.
    He sometimes floats the ball in the air which could get him into trouble against good defenses.
    He definitely has that “IT” factor or “moxie” that you’re looking for.

    Gebbia :
    H.S. film here: https://www.hudl.com/profile/4367965/Tristan-Gebbia
    He stands in the pocket and delivers it to guys with zip. Has no problems with any throw. He’s a more prototypical gunslinger.
    He will look for all his passing options before hurting you with his legs.
    He’s consistent and minimal/no drop off in skill from Luton, which will be good for a team looking to continue to improve.

    Like others said before, I think Gebbia will be the guy since he knows the playbook but I think Nolan will push him (which will be good for both). What will be interesting to see is how much leash JS provides Gebbia. I imagine he will have some growing pains being QB1, but so did Luton and he wasn’t pulled.

    I like what I see from both QBs, but Gebbia performed well for his first start in the CW and seems very consistent. He will get the Beavs through 2020 and Nolan potentially wins it for 2021 and runs away with it.

    Great problem to have for JS. Go beavs!

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    For argument’s sake, let’s say Gebbia wins the job. Is Nolan going to sit two years and wait for his turn as a senior? That’s hard to imagine happening if he’s truly the number one rated JC QB in the country. That being said most teams need two or three capable QBs when the inevitable injuries hit. Hopefully, JS has a plan to keep them both happy and on the roster. My other theory is that JS is not quite seeing everything he wants in Gebbia and Nolan is going to be the man if he picks up the offense quickly. As with most things in life, time will tell.

    • This^^^^^
      Exactly what I’m thinking. The transfer portal is a bit of a double edged beaver tooth — it can help the team as much as damage. I suppose the hope is that the musical chairs (opportunities) don’t line up to allow him want to leave — other programs will have an eye on him, a specially in California, San Diego State (new coach Brady Hoke), San Jose State (Brent Brennan). Also have UNLV (Marcus Arroyo). These coaches are unproven and it is hard to say if someone like Nolan would run as soon as there is adversity. Sometimes I wonder if riding the bench then having one stellar year is actually better for these guys for their long term health and longevity. Some of these two and three year starters take a beating. Hold the clipboard, learn the system, and then ride off into the NFL sunset with your legs still under you.

      • The 1 year starter plan is high risk (all rides on one year) but seems to work really well for elite guys. It’s almost impossible to be an NFL guy without any starting experience though.

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    Looking at the tape Gebbia is a good mid-range gunslinger and game manager he gets the ball out quick and puts the ball where defenders cant capitalize with a turnover…..but Nolan has better touch and what appears to be a stronger arm and after you toss in his ability to escape pressure, stretch out plays ,throw on the run and just plain run it isn’t even close. Gebbia will be a good backup.

  8. Knowing the Beavs luck, on the last day of training camp both players will transfer thinking the other is going to take the starting spot.

    • Gulbranson is also an excellent looking prospect. We’re 3 deep depending how quickly he can learn, but the skills are there that if 1 and 2 went down I’d be fine with Gulbranson taking over.

      • I’m curious what you like so much about Gulbranson. Based on the film that’s out there, he looks like a middle of the road “tall guy, strong arm” type prospect with some mobility, but not great accuracy.

        • What film did you watch?
          His senior film is nice. He’s a bit of a “make it up as you go” QB but in a good way, unlike a Seth Collins. Good arm, pretty good accuracy on film so maybe he had bad WRs.

          • I stand corrected. I must have only seen his junior year film. His senior film is impressive.

            He makes some nice passes into tight windows, moves well, does a good job keeping his eyes downfield when under pressure. From what’s on film, the worst thing I can say is he seems to have the gunslinger mentality and he’s forcing some questionable throws. It’s hard to tell based on film quality, but he also seems to have a bit of the Luton wobble ball going on.

            I did read an article about him that said he chose to stay with his friends at that HS instead of transferring to a better program, and they hadn’t won a whole lot in his time there. That could explain some of the mentality where he feels like he has to force things if he’s the best player on a mediocre team.

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    I’m still really not sold on Nolan based on film. I see an offense that is simplistic and really inflates his stats with big bombs and easy rushing yards. Practically every down I saw was a version of streaks clear out.

    Will be excited to get more info at the spring game. Whoever wins is going to deserve it and if we are letting the qb use his legs then injury potential is high. Hope to roll through the season with two guys who can move the ball.

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    I CANT BELIEVE THE DUCKS WON WHILE CHEATING AND NOBODY IS ACTING LIKE THERE’S A PROBLEM WITH IT! THE REFS WERE OBVIOUSLY PAID TO PRODUCE THE OUTCOME AND UPSET VEGAS ODDS MAKERS! SO APPARENT BUT NCAA OR PAC 12 DOESN’T CARE BECAUSE OF THE MONEY!!!

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    To say the Beavs have 2 quality QBs competing for the starting job is a stretch. Gebbia looked ok in CW but looked far from a future great. Consider Luton beat him out. Nolan may or may not be good but we at least need to see him play and make some decisions against better competition before we get too excited. I think QB is a concern until it’s proven otherwise.

    Regarding the refs in WBK CW… it’s ridiculous to say that cost the Beavs. The Ducks are clearly the better team and won fair and square. Their D shut us down and we had no answer for their O. Sabrina I. may be the best women’s basketball player on the planet.

    • Gebbia’s HS film was exciting. His CW performance on the road against one of the top D’s in the conference was promising. The fact that he’s been in the system for some time now is encouraging. He checks all the boxes for someone with the lack of game experience that he has. That makes him unproven, but promising.

      I don’t get the Nolan hype level here. Is it just because of the late offers from Utah and Ok St? It’s not like he was an A-list QB and the staff got their guy early in the cycle. He seems to have good tools, but I don’t see any improvement from HS to JC and there’s no proof that he can throw anything other than a streak.

      If his athleticism is a sign that we’re doing some 2-QB sets that would be awesome.

      QB is still a question mark, but with Gebbia, it’s not like we have someone brand new coming in. Nolan seems to be a depth upgrade over what we had as of the CW game this year.

      • Also, let’s not act like Gebbia’s CW performance meant nothing. The only guys to post a better QBR performance against the Ducks’ D are future NFL draftees.

        Yes, it was one game, but it wasn’t the kind of performance that a scrub puts in given the context.

  12. Can we quit acting like gebbia is a dual threat? He can scramble a lil to pick up a first here or there and extend the play but he’s not going to be running the option a ton. Because luton was so slow people think that gebbia is fast when he probably runs a 4.9.

  13. I like QBs that have experience in the system so they can make checks at the line and avoid mistakes. Gebbia should win if not that says a lot about nolan.

    • Wasn’t the deciding factor in starting Luton in 2019 “experience?” Will be interesting if Smith plays that card again, or if Nolan’s mobility & potential overwhelm that argument,

      • That assumes the QB competition is a “tie” like it was last fall. Nolan would have to be supremely talented for that to be the case when he’s comepting with someone who knows the system and the team already.

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    Is Nolan only eligible for 1 year? I thought he had 2. The ideal scenario would be Gebbia starts in 2020 and 2021, then Nolan starts 2022 and 2023. Nolan would have the offense nailed by then and we would have our Heisman candidate.

  15. To answer the question: I don’t care who wins, but I think the idea that Nolan has more than an outside chance of being the starter is wishful thinking based on everything we know. If he really is so good he can beat out Gebbia, than that makes it obvious to me that the QB position is in a better spot for 2020 than it was for 2019.

    We’ll likely need both to play if recent history is any indication. When was the last season we only started one QB?

  16. Sorry for the Debbie Downer post, but I was reading about the victims of the helicopter crash yesterday. The Dad, Mom and 1 sister of a former duck baseball player from a few years ago all were on the same helicopter. I just couldn’t imagine losing so many people close to you at once.

    • I had a talk this evening with my youngest son who is 25 and plan to do the same with my older who is 30. We talked about death, what comes after death and to take each day as though it’s your last. We both cried a little bit because he knows how much I love him and he seldom cries. I just can’t imagine the pain that these families are going to have to endure. And another very painful thing to discuss was…what were their last words to their families when they left to board that helicopter not knowing they were about to step into eternity saying their final goodbyes to their loved ones without know it would be the last time in this life. I just can’t imagine and, yet, I saw what appeared to be a caricature of Kobe and Gia with their backs facing the caricature walking off the court with Kobe’s hand over Gia’s shoulder. I’m trusting that they’re walking hand in hand in Heaven at this very moment along with all of the others that died Sunday. Man, this is just a tough one to comprehend as it certainly has made me pause and think just how fragile life really is and that it shouldn’t be taken for granted.

  17. Here, again, is the link to a podcast interview with Gebbia. He seems to be a student of all aspects of QB play and the game in general; whether that and his time in the system translates to demonstrated and consistent play remains to be seen. He seems to be off to a good start.

    Questions:
    1) anyone impressed by his interview?
    2) anyone have a link to something similar by Nolan?

    https://osubeavers.com/sports/2017/8/4/beaver-sports-podcast.aspx
    Scroll down to Dec 5

      • Who wanted to downplay him? I think people were just questioning how u were so sure he was so great from practice and high school highlights.

      • If our qb play in the CW was better, we win. Gebbia was serviceable given the circumstances but if you watch closely, there are multiple missed throws and bad reads that cost us points. The good was he minimized mistakes but he didn’t impress me much with his talent.

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          All these unimpressed dudes don’t ever seem to acknowledge how awful Luton was against defense ranked in the top 50. We only played 3 of them this year. Cal was the next best at 65 and all the rest lower. So Overall we had a favorable schedule offensively this year only playing 3 teams in the top half of CFB defense (mostly because Pac 12 sucks at d.) Think about that though: this impressive year for Luton was again defensed ranked 70-120. You have get to #68 ASU to find a good game.

          Luton
          #2 Utah: 42.1
          #35 Washington: 16.3
          #65 Call we won but he had a 46.8

          Gebbia
          #22 Oregon: 80.5

          Obviously our line sucked against Udub so Luton’s bad numbers aren’t all on him, but after the first couple sacks he just ran away and hid the rest of the game chucking the ball away. Looked like PTSD which is understandable given his previous injuries. But saying we win the Civil War with Luton at the helm is stupid as he was trash against good d.

    • Great interview and thanks for sharing OOB. Ironic timing he mentioned Kobe back in December. Gebbia seems very smart. Even the part about counting d-lineman to know adjustments get needs to make to protection seems simple but didn’t always happen last year. He seems very humble and eager to learn from anyone. That is great DA reached out to him.

    • Exceptionally mature and thoughtful individual. Certainly not the average athlete interview.

      He’s going to do very well next year.

    • Also, at the end he said this would be the first time going through two spring practice sessions with the same staff and offense.

      Last year was Luton’s first time in his 6 years of college ball of having the same staff and offense two years in a row, and he clearly played his best season.

      I suspect Gebbia’s prep separates him from Nolan. Gebbia already interacted with several college and pro QBs and is talks in the interview about how to attack D’s and design plays and routes. Maybe Nolan has the same kind of passion for learning, I don’t know, haven’t heard an interview with him yet. If Nolan has similar passion, then Gebbia’s experience offers some separation.

  18. So we miss out on Griffin and Nu. Where does that put our scholarship count at? Wondering if we have any transfers in the works with any open spots.

      • Yeah, per Nemec we have hit our scholarship limit, which is why Lowe is a walkon. Lowe has to wait till on of the scholarships open up, which I’m assuming will be soon because of transfers/academic casualties/medical retirements during the offseason.
        The best chance to add any more players before the season starts would be via transfer.
        Unless Morano doesn’t sign for some reason.

          • I read the breakdown and I think it’s the same one they had posted a couple of weeks ago with just a few new sentences. It’s not very clear and they don’t seem to know exactly where things are.

          • The main difficulty is that teams dont make scholarship information available to media/fans. So anybody who reports on those things are estimating. And it fluctuates throughout the year making it tougher to get an accurate snapshot.
            She says “by my count” in the article, because she doesn’t really know the answer. And the team wont confirm her numbers. Maybe it’s a privacy thing, or maybe a competitive advantage. Or maybe they just dont like her.

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    I disagree that Nolan is a four star. I question how high his ceiling is. He had good stats in high school but yet could only get a lower group of 5 offer. He’s basically taking the same path as Luton. Maybe he’s a late bloomer but JC guys are more or less finished products than anything which I would rate him as a three star.

    Nolan should push for the job, but it’s Gebbias to lose. First start on the road in the CW and he didn’t back down. I expect growing pains next year but that shouldn’t automatically call for Nolan. But in case of injury, the drop off could be minimal.

    Gulbranson is a project. Prototype size and enough athleticism to keep plays alive but needs to be a better decision maker. 55% complete rate sr year. Not good. Likely career backup.

    First time in a while spring ball will be fun to watch. QB room is starting to fill up with legitimate guys. Colletto was never a solution. Don’t think Nolan will be a goal line package guy as Gebbia could run those plays. Don’t think any transfer after this year. If they do transfer again, it’ll be as grad transfers.

    My depth chart
    Gebbia
    Nolan
    Willard
    Gulbranson
    Moore/Chryst

    • Completely disagree with all of this other than Gebbia is the leader as of today. Nolan will be on his tail in Spring.

      Willard is one of the worst QB prospects I’ve ever seen at OSU. Gulbranson destroys him and should be clear #3 with big upside.

    • I would put any of those guys ahead of Willard for the third spot. I also haven’t seen that much of them tho. Never have been very impressed with Willard.

    • Gulbranson’s team went 3-7 in 2019. He clearly didn’t have the best talent around him and if you watch his highlights, he’s running for his life quite a bit.

      Decision making could have something to do with bad OL, him pressing because he feels like he has to win games for his team, or maybe he’s just too aggressive. I think the tools are there, it’ll just be on the staff to coach him up on the mental side of the game. They did it with Luton, they can do it with BG. There’s nothing wrong with him redshirting in 2020, and seeing if he can eventually compete for the starting job in a few years.

      • Exactly. Gulbranson is definitely not a project. Just look at the film. His offer sheet is great with Cal, ASU, Kansas State, all great QB schools. He’s a big time prospect shouldn’t be mentioned in the same sentence as Willard.

    • @Bill, agree with the concern on the completion percentage for Gulbanson. With Smith’s offense, you need accurate throws to keep the sticks moving. This could all change though once around better talent. Red shirt this year, backup next year. Minimum of two years to learn the ropes. Good thing we don’t have to throw him into the fire soon.

      I thought Nolan had offers from Ok. State, UCLA, and maybe Utah was in the mix. Ok. St. alone tells me they saw something in him. I was pretty happy we were able to nab him. He still has 3 years to play. Plenty of time to grow and learn. The coaches at OSU will be the best he has ever had.

      A commenter above mentioned Gebbia not impressing them that much in CW. Thinking back to the first half of that game (Gebbia mentioned this in the podcast OOB posted), starting field position for the Beavs was not good. The defense stayed tough but offense kept starting inside own 20. I thought he gave the team a chance to win and didn’t lose the game for them. Game manager? Sure, if you want to say that. He didn’t come out shell shocked. Remember, he led them to a td drive right away but with a phantom penalty. He also seemed poised at the end of the game when down 7. Good news, another off season to grow and get ready to be the starter. I expect him to look sharp at the spring game.

      • Gebbia was impressive in the CW given it was his first start, and he’s way more than a game manager. He’s going to have a huge season if we get those transfer WRs in this year. Only legit criticism is a lot of batted balls. His height might be a little less than listed.

        • I agree, I’m excited to see him take the reigns.

          WR depth:
          Bradford
          Lindsey
          Harrison
          Lowe
          Beason
          Flemmings
          Irish
          The list goes on….

          Where are all these guys going to play? Maybe Lowe will be used more as a rb

        • I attended one of the offseason scrimmages last year and saw Gebbia up close next to his teammates. I remember commenting at the time on AB that he appeared shorter than advertised. Maybe 6 feet?

        • I agree that he was impressive. Probably the best first start I have seen from an OSU QB. That defense was fast and legit with some serious lb and pass rushers. He gave us a shot to win and did nothing to make us lose.

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    Agreed, to me, this is a tight race and I’ll be fine with either guy. This is like a reverse of 2010 when I didn’t care who won the job because I didn’t want either option, which was Cody Vaz and Ryan Katz. Neither thrilled me much and both proved to be underwhelming in their careers.

    Looking at tape, I think I’d prefer Chance Nolan slightly more overall.

    • I’m leaning towards Gebbia too. More experience with the system. More experience with these receivers. More experience against P5 competition. 1 year older.

      Nolan will be coming to a brand new team and league straight out of JC ball. I’d imagine Smith will drag out naming a starter till week 0, but whoever is getting practice time with the 1’s will be the guy.

      All this talk is actually making me consider watching the spring game.

  21. Hey NB what’s the story with Tiger Shanks out of Lake Oswego? 6’6″ 320# OL, 3* committed to UNLV. Offer sheet wasn’t super impressive, Nemec was floating that OSU could have had him if they tried.

    • Don’t know. I would suspect he didnt fit the body type they were looking for?
      The last few OL guys we were focusing on were Griffin and Morano. And both were the same height but carrying around only 265lbs.
      Maybe Shanks extra 60 lbs aren’t as easy to reshape as having a young player grow into their playing weight through training and proper diet?

      I guess I don’t get Nemec’s fascination with Shanks vs the other guys. Shanks had offers from SJSU, Sac State and Idaho before UNLV grabbed him. And UNLV is having to reach for guys this year due to a late start to recruiting, since Arroyo was hired after the season. Would be an even bigger reach for OSU to flip him from UNLV.

      I would suspect the Beavs could have easily landed most players with a similar offer sheet if they wanted them. Maybe Nemec is just focusing on the chance to land a 3* rated guy vs a 2* guy. Like that is the sole reason to sign a player, to boost class ranking totals on 247?
      Neither would be an immediate contributer/difference maker.

      I would add that Morano has a really high GPA. Who doesnt want a smart OL project? And the younger brother could have been a factor too.

      • Nemec is shitposting, its obvious the kid doesnt fit the prototype that coach m has been chasing. Nemec would do the same thing for a kid who only had Linfield offers if he knew he wouldnt be called out.

        • Maybe he’s trying to imply, all things being equal, you should take the in state kid, if only to solidify your foothold with Lake Oswego in state recruiting?

          But all things dont appear to be equal, so I think you have to go with the player who best fits your needs and has the highest future upside in your eyes.

      • I had a similar thought reading his piece: He criticized them going after guys with only Mountain West offers and Shanks just committed to a…Mountain West school. Huh??

  22. I’ve been out alot lately for work. Has anybody brought up the story that Barnes has requested proposals for the Reser West side remodel?
    He wants to have options submitted by Feb 20th.
    Wonder if the public will have access to those proposals?
    Maybe a public records request is in order?

    https://www.gazettetimes.com/sports/oregon-state-athletics-university-requests-proposals-for-reser-renovation/article_b5372b47-e8c3-50f0-8894-cb33c40665d1.html

    • This is the start a lengthy process. Whether it happens or not will depend on additional donations and income generating projections from both use during season and off. Potentially renting space to the academic side of the university or a private organization year round. I expect they are still exploring those avenues and also want to see what a contractor actually says it’ll cost.

      The current RFP clearly defines an option to stop after design is completed and not move onto construction. Though you don’t go through this process if you’re not at least planning to complete construction as indicated in the proposal. As far as donations, I hear the beavs have in the range of $75 million in commitments But that was some time ago. It’s a good sign that OSU is moving on to this next step so quickly but I’m guessing there’s still work to do on the funding front.

      • Seems like a high priority(outside of the non-football use of the facility) should be ripping out most of the bleacher bench seating and installing chairs, similar to the upper deck on the east side. It would reduce capacity, but improve the comfort sitting on that side. Reducing capacity sounds like something that is almost guaranteed to happen anyway.
        They could even enclose sections of the seating area to create makeshift lecture halls. Think like the Theater of the Clouds setup at the Moda Center. Partitions are moved in to enclose certain areas and make them fit a smaller crowd when needed.

    • Is there a restaurant/bar any where around there? I attended the bball game saturday and it would be nice to find a restaurant where you could park once and get to food/drink and then to a game. Maybe there could be a restaurant in the space open outside of football game days. I don’t know of anything on that side of campus other than the dining hall but they don’t offer adult beverages, at least not when I went to school.

      • I’ve thought that in the past too. Would be nice to have a restaurant or 2 lease out space on the ground floor. Plenty of parking. I think a problem is any restaurant in that setting would want to sell alcohol, and they dont allow alcohol sales on campus, except at Reser or Gill on game day.
        They would have to bend their own rules if they wanted to give a restaurant a monopoly with on campus alcohol sales. And every other food vendor on campus would probably want the same privileges.

        But yes, I would live to have a brew pub move into Reser. Maybe they can cross it with the fermentation sciences program, and sell Oregon State cheese from the Agriculture program.

        • Mcmenamins was negotiating for the space that the bookstore has but never got off the ground due to the no alcohol policy.

          It would be pretty hard for a full service restaurant to survive near the stadium. It is beyond dead when students aren’t in town.

          While nice for fans, it’s really just not practical.

          • Does the hotel near the stadium have a restaurant? I’ve never thought about going there. Close enough but off campus. I hope they think about fan experience and some different things.

          • The new recipe appears to be a local brew pub/tasting room with parking for food carts. Let’s the beer guys sling beer and the food guys sling food. Very successful model in Eugene/Springfield anyway. Ninkasi, Beergarden, Brewstation in Cottage Grove and soon to be Covered Bridge Brewing in Cottage Grove all run this model. If the beer/food/atmosphere is good enough people will come out year round.

            The best way would be to work a deal with the university and make the brewery an internship for the brewing program folks. Could be a waiver in there somewhere, you know, for science and shit.

            Fwiw, Ninkasi won the bidding war for the first PhD from Oregon State’s brewing program. Dr Dan is a cool guy.

    • I would like to point out that the old side was built prior to building codes and most definitely will not be in compliance with the new seismic ground acceleration requirements when they come out. I’m also skeptical that the cover would hold up to a wind lateral analysis.

      At some point they need to ditch it or pay millions to upgrade it for safety and longevity.

      Smart money says reduce capacity and maximize luxary. Stadium is gonna have to be hella nice for me pay to drive 6 hours and sit in weather over eating chips on my couch.

  23. Speaking of in-state recruiting, Keanon Lowe has been hired away from Parkrose to be HC at West Linn, a school that will have a ton of talent the next few years.
    Keanon is Trey Lowe’s older brother. Neat deal for the Beavs

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    TRANSFER PORTAL TIDBITS:
    -Oklahoma State sees 3 WR’s enter the portal, all in the last week. Can’t hurt Beavs chances next Fall.
    -Utah RB Devontae Henry-Cole enters transfer portal, this, along with the graduation of Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss. Can’t hurt the Beavs chances in Salt Lake next November.
    -K J Costello, while still in the Portal, is visiting U of W. Might hurt Beavs chances in Seattle next October?

    https://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/01/29/oklahoma-state-football-c-j-moore-ncaa-transfer-database-portal/

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    Feel free to hit the Beavrecruiting DMs any time you have film you want to get retweeted. The more exposure you can get, the better.

  26. @angry. Maybe a good off season topic would be what football viewership looks like in the future. Some things that will have big effects on crowd size: tv/stream availability, licensing/sponsership becoming main income source, millennials lacking disposable income, absurd cost of programs, lack of parity, off season model, continued monetization of sports, stadium amenities, gameday experience, chainsaw

    • We’ve already seen that these trends have resulted in less attendance nation wide.
      College attendance is also down for the 8th consecutive year:

      https://www.insidehighered.com/quicktakes/2019/05/30/college-enrollment-declines-continue

      Around that same exact time (8 years ago) I sensed the bubble in higher education and inevitable sea change, and wrote these two articles:

      http://angrybeavs.com/academics/8020
      http://angrybeavs.com/football/4412

      So I feel I covered it already, and it’s just taking a long time to play out, like most demographic/price issues.

      • Those are both good write ups! I was more thinking what kind of models might be more effective in the future. I have been thinking about how professional gaming leagues work. I don’t know the numbers but the ‘live’ audience makes up a tiny part of profits and is usually linked to cons and expos. I could see a model where games are streamed and actual games become linked with recruiting camps where hardcore fans really make a day of it. If that model did arise I can also see disparities getting worse as people go to see the best camps and monetary compensation becomes more linked to viewership.

        • I think video games have set the trend with that. Friends wear headphones and sit around gaming/talking to one another.

          Something like that has to happen where you make it a social event via some medium. My buddies are all around the States, so to watch a game that way would actually be pretty fun. Imagine we could all do that here with the AB crowd? Would be a blast. I think it involves Google somehow getting the rights to stream everything “free”, and then an ad based model for revenue. Google would likely be broken up (monopoly or just considered too big) so it would be a division of theirs. They’re putting in free/cheap wifi in many cities, so I think that’s how this will play out. Everything will be free, friends will gather via a medium (“google gather” or something like this), and then advertisers will pay Google (or whoever makes this). I’m an idea man/inventor if anyone wants to collaborate!

          The current model was obsolete the day signed. I never thought conferences getting their own networks was a good model or viable. It just leads to what we have today, which is consolidation of fewer schools gaining more power and losing more overall fans.

          • I mean we could just test it out. We could make a discord voice chat room during a game and have a live event, see how it goes? I pretty much watch games at my desk while I work anyways since the kids are usually sleeping and my wife would rather watch British dramas!

            If you couple the voice chat with a text room then you basically end up with twitch where some people comment via the keys and people in voice act as commentators/hosts.It breaks the law to actually stream the game itself but there’s no reason we cant do a live chat.

          • Correct the big roadblock is a stream everyone has access to. I cut cable in 2009, but I can access streams via my family who continue to pay for cable. There are many illegal streams, but we can’t really promote those. So that’s the problem. Some corporation has to gain access to all those streams and consolidate and legalize so everyone has the access. Short of that it can’t be a viable way to watch. We could do it, illegally…which as a site owner I can’t condone! If we do it legally, some will be left out who don’t have cable/can’t afford it. It’s a big opportunity for whoever cracks the code of having access to all and free. My bet is Google.

          • I know I can’t host a stream on discord. I run a pretty large arthritis and auto immune support group so getting an IP ban would be a massive issue. I might offer up a voice chat for one of the P12 network games or if there’s another Facebook stream type deal. See if it’s atleast fun. I could see it just being 30 dudes yelling into a mic haha

          • That’s true it could be dudes yelling into a mic and annoying. I don’t play video games, so I’m not sure what gamers do, but I do know they have large groups via headsets playing at the same time. Maybe since it’s interactive they’re not yelling. Maybe football would have to make it more interactive somehow. We can shoot players we don’t like with paintball drones! Keith Pankey I’m looking at you!

            Or maybe people who talk over one another and are rude get voted out. Could use the blockchain to do that part. Coins/votes and if you hit x you’re gone.

          • I watched the last 45 minutes of the Wazzu game with a buddy by talking on phones. He was a minute or two ahead of me so when we went for it on 4th down (not bringing this up for debate again) he waited for me to see the play and then we talked about it. It was fun way to “watch” the game with someone else as interested.

            I hear about kids watching movies at their own house using headsets to interact as the movie is playing. I think the idea is interesting. Some sort of watch party.

          • I think a better model would be a streaming service where you can host voice/chat groups for public or private use and set the number of participants. Say 10, 20,50. This can be coupled with a main public stream where people can meet up or just chill with the masses. The Hawaii game had a public chat and the text went by so fast it was pointless. Basically an endless stream of people saying go warriors or go beavs.

            If done right it would be similar to a digital tailgate. You hang with your buds but you could also leave space for randoms to join and maybe make some new friends.

            Gaming has always been small group based in squads or clans. The natural way to deal with annoying a holes is to just mute them. If they are dumb they howl into the wind, if they catch on they leave or shape up and apologize over a text option.

          • To go along with the streaming and interactive model, it would be awesome if you could choose what camera position you want to view. We know there are multiple cameras being used but we’re at the mercy of the broadcast team’s choice of camera. Couple that with 360 deg cameras and you could have an amazing custom viewer experience.

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            Good idea and the spirit, Dooz.
            All that kind of stuff is where it has to go. Like 15 years ago I said to friends who’d listen that should put a laser in the tip of ball and in the pylons/markers and tried to invent it but didn’t have the 10k at the time for a patent. Now it seems like that will soon be part of the game I hear it a lot these days. I assume someone has patented it by now. Too depressed at the thought to look! I’m early on everything, including shorting Tesla. I love the line in The Big Short when Michael says, “I wasn’t wrong, I was early” and the guy retorts, “They’re the same thing, Michael!” Sums up so much in my life.

            Even Riley took six years from when it was very clear he was done. Life moves way slower than I think it should. Except aging.

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        as usual, Angry was far ahead of the curve. This is what having a critical minded outlook towards sports (or any subject) will do for you. (and contrary to popular impression, here and more largely put, being critical and being negative are not the same thing).

        Anyway, there’s another aspect to student demographics, other than, say, debt load, that’s impinging on football attendance, etc. With cutbacks in state support nationwide, post-recession, state flagship universities (e.g., OSU, UO), that is, the schools that populate the power 5 conferences, have made up the difference and balanced their books by tilting their admissions in favor of out of state and foreign students, both of which subsets pay a higher tuition rate than a resident population, usually 3x. That is, one non-resident student is as remunerative as three resident students. You can see the incentive that creates. Correspondingly, directly or indirectly, the flagships shunt an increasing portion of their in-state student population to regional schools (Eastern Oregon, for example) or their branch campuses. The University of Washington, which had to be dragged, kicking and screaming, into the realm of branch campuses in the 1980’s, finally accommodated themselves to their value: they charge top dollar for kids from Oregon, California, or, say, China, while “local” prospects are guided into their branch campuses in Tacoma and Bothell.

        So, you may ask, how does this translate to student attendance at football games? If, for example, a student was raised in southern California, is it not conceivable that, once admitted in Corvallis, Eugene, or Seattle, they come with an underlying allegiance to SC or UCLA, dis-incentivizing that student into staying in the dorm to watch SC play ND rather than head to Reser to watch the Beavs play Utah? That effect plays out much more formidably by the increasingly sizable population of students who grew up in Asia, or Africa, for whom American football is a completely foreign game and for whom the traditions and pageantry of tailgating etc. are a yet to be acquired taste.

        • Thanks. It hasn’t totally collapsed but the numbers do appear to finally be trending down. I actually lived up to what I wrote there and stopped watching college football except for the Beavs (and occasional PAC game). I used to watch a lot more games. So the change doesn’t happen all at once. Even myself who was critical and saw the flaws, it took me years to ween off watching all PAC games and narrowing it down to just the Beavs for the most part. The average fan who is not as critical probably takes even longer, so maybe we’re just finally seeing that. Also the SEC bias and intimate relationship with Disney/ESPN is has woken many up and turned them off, tuned them out, etc. Some friends of mine refuse to watch anything but their own team because of all the corporate involvement. There are some major problems, and it seems their solution right now is to “get bigger” and “throw more money” at the sport…not good.

          Agree that people tend to confuse critical with negative. Both have a place like everything in life, but they definitely aren’t the same. I’m critical in general, but very rarely negative.

          • I think life also affects these things. I watched a lot more when in college due to the time I had and living with dudes that loved to sit around on Saturdays and watch any game that was on. Now, I value my time differently. Just another part of it I think. As we get older, I think we also start to look at more than just the game. Like you said Angry, the corporate stuff and the agenda’s by the broadcasting companies. For me, I have a hard time watching some of these guys literally sacrifice their head, legs, etc running into people. When it goes well for my team I get fired up but then I’m thinking wow that guy literally just got in a car wreck on the football field.

            I’m looking forward to attending some games next year as a family. Make it more than just the game. Fun being on campus and seeing friends.

            Good discussion, thanks for the insight Wanna, NB, Angry, etc.

  27. Nolan has had quite a few serious concussions, it’s well known he’s a little punchy. Gebbia has all the out of state family changes going on. Will have to see how it plays out.

        • Sorry, my comment was misleading. Meant that the good gals had 12 TO’s MORE THAN the lady buffs. As you (and I) probably expected, Beavs had 16 total TO’s. Buffs only 4.

          Likewise, the difference in rebounds was 23 in favor of Beavs. Beavs 50 vs Buffs 27. Kennedy Brown with 13 RB and 7 pts in 29 minutes.

          Worth noting: Simmons played 18 minutes and Thropay 13.

  28. Men’s BB offense is tough to watch sometimes. The persistent 3 man weave that goes nowhere until they get the ball to Kelley with 5 seconds left on the shot clock. Brutal. I want more of the offense I saw during the Arizona game.

    • Also, I would have thought Lucas was a better shooter. His technique is whacked. His legs go forward and doesn’t land on balance. Prone to being streaky.

      • If the ball goes in, is there really any critique to be had?

        He’s still in HS mode, because he hasn’t had Pac time. But his HS mode obviously works in spurts… like the spurts when he is let loose.

        If only he had time to be free….

        The benefit was obvious in the Stanford game. Lucas was a distraction who let Ethan play free and loose.

        This is where rotation has failed. We should be scoring 80+ on a bad night.

    • 2
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      Yeah, I don’t understand the purpose of the weave. It pisses away time off of the shot clock and doesn’t get them into any type of coherent offense. Every league game has been filled with huge gaps of time where they can’t score.

      I was glad to see Big Tinks let Lucas fire away last night, at least that’s something. This team has no three-point shooting. There was so much non-conference hype regarding Lil’ Tink’s improvement but his three-shot has deteriorated in league play, I think he’s below 20% after taking another zero last night.

        • He best get his passport ready cause he isn’t going to get drafted let alone make it in the NBA.

          Also, where did my comment from yesterday go. Was wondering if GP might be interested in being a head coach? Pretty sure he got his degree while at OSU.

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            He’ll get picked up by a team after the draft. Y’all just don’t like him because of the coach. That doesn’t take away the fact that Tinkle has skills. What position he fits into at the NBA is the biggest question

          • If you think Tinkle is NBA material you’re completely delusional. Not surprising.

            Idk where you came up with “I don’t like him”.

            He’s too slow, not a good enough shooter.

      • Agreed about the lack of offense……………..However regarding Baby Tinks, Opponents have figured them out. Shut him and Ethan down. Who’s left to shoulder the scoring load?????? Other than those two, this team/program has no reliable scorer.

        • Tinks “moves” are hilarious. It’s like an in and out dribble and maybe a slow motion hesitation. Stand back a few feet and just watch him dance around and go nowhere.

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      He’s not a typical closer type, he’s got stamina to eat up innings. His first year I think he was going 3+ innings routinely.

      He’ll be fine as a starter, won’t keep that closer era though.

      Other guys can take the closer role in aggregate. A closer probably won’t be of much value to the team this year. Team will need pitching early in the game first.

      If he can give 5+ each night, that helps immensely.

  29. WBB: Gals win by 12 after leading by 26. No surprise, 17 TO’s for Good Gals vs 8 for Utes.
    Tudor 28 minutes, Simmons 15, Thropay 6, Morris 5. Good to see Scott using the bench.

    • 1
      1

      Hollins had a good game. And defense is the answer to your question… except in the 2-3.

      But you’re correct. He should not have been who we relied on in the second half to carry us. But he did very well carrying that load. He’s just not a finisher.

      Maybe those in the coaching circles will hear this idea here:
      Someone who should be put on the floor and be given a green light always doesn’t need to have a coach talk about him as if he’s been on the floor for any real amount of time. Granted, there are team and practice dynamics. But there are also winning and losing dynamics.

      There is talent enough on the OSU roster to be a Sweet Sixteen team, with Cinderella opportunities.

      The rotation has been better lately. But it’s way too conservative. We should not be losing games where 69 points is the winning score.

  30. Well Hollins actually played descent in the 2nd half but Thompson was absolutely horrible. This team is
    regressing every game. Look at Thompsons stats and he is suppose to be 1 of our leaders and he is not
    scoring or contributing in any way. Kelly was dominated by a bench player today and he is just to soft.
    Tinkle is not good enough to carry this team. I think WT needs to sit some people and look to next year.

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    12

    You guys are assholes, the team plays so hard! How would you feel if your son was on the team? Blessings abound for the opportunity and as a parent you hope it goes well and they win a lot. Head coach Tinkle has been nothing but class, a big upgrade from your previous coaches. Fire the coaches? Do so and regret it! We want this program to succeed!!!

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      We may be assholes, but YOU are the problem. Acccepting mediocrity and failure. But they’re trying and playing hard, right?

      So making excuses for losses is classy huh?

      Weak shit.

      Tinkle can hit the fucking road. Sooner the better.

    • Your take is too emotional. Your son beats himself up more tha anyone here can do, given civility–which is fluid, but there are lines drawn.

      The players are harder on themselves than we can ever be. They are worse when it comes to wins. Some of them can’t stop beating themselves for everything.

      But they have coping mechanism which one would hope does not include reading their critics’ comments. They know how they’re deficient.

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      3

      Oh.

      Wayne Tinkle has not been an upgrade over previous coaches.

      I’m not sure where you get that idea Tourney performance is what proves to be an upgrade.

      When we have some at this historically hoops school, it will be an upgrade.

  32. 1
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    So Jack just shows up out of the blue and starts commenting after more than a full year of silence, as if nothing has changed?

    Sounds good to me. Welcome back from the dead, Jack. Glad it wasn’t true.

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        You also wrongly accused Brenda Tracy of not going to the cops/hospital and having a rape kit performed.

        You went so far as to apologize for not being sympathetic for her lack of doing so, even though she did. The nurse who helped her through that night is a major part of her story–especially the one about how she didn’t kill herself when some mysterious OSU coach-type was threatening her over the phone for being a rape victim.

        You were an intentionally ignorant dickhead for no reason, and nobody bothered to correct you with the easily available information we call reality.

          • He’s never wrong just like the little orange guy in the WH. Whenever you think you’re the smartest person in the room, you’re not. In fact, you most often don’t even know what room you’re in.

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