Pretty soon we’re going to have more general threads than Friday the 13th movies.
What projects are you guys working on this week?
Have you had any deleterious habits forming during the “cabin fever”, such as drinking more, etc? I notice I have been drinking more, and I don’t like it one bit. Going to cut back starting this weekend.
Also, what is/can Smith do to keep team engaged and motivated during this time?
These are just some of the things to ponder in this thread. Until it turns political, which we should try to avoid as long as possible! I’m willing to discuss economics if anyone has questions about that, but not politics today.
First!
Hey did you see my post about a higher temp lager yeast?
Hey man, yes I did. Totally going to give it a shot. Should be able to get to it within a couple weeks here after I get the IPA bottled.
How hard is it to brew beer at home?
My lady drinks beer. I can’t..allergic to something in it. But she spends a fortune on it.
Is it cheaper to brew at home, how long does a batch last, etc?
It’s pretty easy, you will spend more time cleaning and sanitizing equipment than actual brewing. That being said, it’s fun. You can customize the brew however you like!
Startup cost is $200+ for equipment, but you can brew a five gallon batch for between $30-60. It will take about 3-4 weeks to ferment before being able to drink it.
This^. Making alcohol is 90% cleaning and sanitizing, at least for me in a commercial setting. It is the foundation to a good product. If beer isn’t your jam, you could always try booze, cider, Mead, wine etc.. it started as a hobby and is now my career! It’s pretty fun
Brewpub or one of the bigger outfits Alpha?
We have a pub and also distribute around the State. Not the biggest, not the smallest, just right for where I’m at in life (new baby). Once she is bigger we are hoping to open a few more pubs in the PNW, and expand our territory.
Alpha, how’s business? You doing OK? I imagine the pub is not but your distribution etc carrying on?
What’s the label you brew under? If you distribute to any stores in PDX, I’ll be sure to track it down buy some with my stimulus money. Gotta support our Beavers
Angry,
It’s very economical to brew your own beer. I brew 5 gallons each brew, which roughly equates to 48 12 oz beers.
If your lady doesn’t mind waiting about a month to a month and a half for the beer to be fully ready, it’s definitely worth your while. Also, if you recycle the glass bottles, i.e don’t get rid of them just store them, your costs for each subsequent batch goes down.
Here is a starter kit that I went with when I first started brewing beer:
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0765CZ6P9/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o08_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1
IMO by the time you take into account equipment costs it basically pencils out to getting micro brew quality beer for PBR prices. So if your lady drinks cheap beer not really worth it. More just a way to pass an afternoon at home than anything else. Throw a pork shoulder on the smoker, brew up a batch and play some lawn games in between brewing steps. If you start to factor in what your time is worth it starts to not be worth it at all lmao.
God damn I’ve had some shitty home brews though. So many when friends offer now I’m gun shy. I’d rather buy a shitty six pack and throw it away then be stuck at a party having to be pleasant about a friend’s bad batch.
YMMV
True, I never made anything totally undrinkable but had a few that I got pretty tired of. The problem with brewing a big batch of IPA too is it slowly loses its aroma and flavor so every day the beer is slightly less flavorful than the prior day which us kinda a buzz kill. Last brew I did was a ginormous bourbon stout which was terrible for a couple months then became drinkable and now a couple years later is really good.
What area of the state are your pubs at? I’m a beer fanatic.
Testing something.
Some stuff I’m working on with free time:
1. Building my first distortion pedal for my guitars…never really worked on circuit boards so this has been cool.
2. Building my second guitar. About 3/4 done. Trying to master luthiery, in general.
3. Reading a lot.
4. Drinking a lot (well, 2 or 3 times a week instead of 1 time per week…ugh).
5. Posting more on AB.
6. Learned how to make bread.
7. Learning how to garden.
8. Would like to learn how to can/best preserve garden harvest. If anyone has ideas. Right now I plan to freeze and maybe pickle some stuff, but I’m concerned I’ll take up my entire freezer.
Watch out for rabbits.
And birds. i did a garden box for strawberries, and even with netting end up feeding the wildbirds as much as my self and kid!
The prior owner was a huge gardener, and she built a nice cedar fence around it. I’m hoping that will keep them out. Birds are more into fruit/berries than veggies, no? I can’t see birds going for tomatoes or peppers. Maybe I’m wrong. The squirrels here are pretty aggressive. They devoured our pumpkins in hours last Halloween. I’m a bit concerned about that.
and deer.
and Bears…oh my!
Is your second guitar electric?
I’ve been mountain biking more, and made conditioning progress and getting better endurance on climbs. I like steep, challenging climbs than relatively fast descents (I’m starting to use brakes more than I used to). Getting exercise outdoors instead of heading to a gym is a refreshing change.
Also doing more photography and processing of photos. Recently scanned and restored/improved a bunch of photos for some family members. Great way to extend the imagery and memories of family members.
Cooking more and enjoying it. I get take out maybe 2X per week though and tip heavy, hope those small business owners make it through. I don’t go to franchises and chains if I eat out.
I was drinking with more consistency, and so I am taking a break. “My name is ObjCritic and I haven’t had a drink in 5 days.” “Hi ObjCritic.”
Reading more, which is great.
Bread makes you fat.
Good idea to use both canning and freezing to distribute risk against product loss. For example, if you lose power you can have bunch of frozen goods spoil (or that you need to consume in short order), having canned goods means power loss is not an issue. With canned goods, its glass jars breaking but you can mitigate that the way you store them.
Finding that working remotely is a mixed bag. Some of it is great, like being able to read and critically evaluate long form documents without interruption, enjoying more opportunity to write new work concepts for vetting and future implementation, but some business processes are confounded by my employers lack of modern software tools.
Where you been riding? OSU closed the Mac-Dunn. I might get up super early tomorrow and head to black rock for a solo ride but afraid it will be packed.
I live out in rural eastern oregon, so I go ride old roads that are mostly impassable to anything but OHVs and mountain bikes.
Good points on using both methods. But investing in a caner…ugh. Seems to take up so much space. I’ll decide by August.
Yes it’s an electric guitar.
I did that family archiving years ago. It’s super fun, but time consuming. Also got a VHS and converted all our old videos to digital, so now they’re preserved. The family loved it. I gave it to them as an Xmas gift.
My wife started started making her own sourdough a year or so ago, made her starter which we’ve now passed onto several friends and family, you can’t beat that. Bread may make you fat, so does beer and not exercising. Moderation is key to many things in life. But a quality beer, a quality soap, a quality pair of socks or a quality bread, they all bring a quality of life hat you can’t put a price on.
Yeah I eat bread every day, and I’m not fat at all. Walks, biking, toning/weights, etc. I actually lost 10lbs since last year due to dieting. The booze is really depressing in that aspect, but on days I drink I’ve been cutting dessert or some other sacrifice.
I was just making a joke/movie reference (Scott Pilgrim vs the World)…I agree, moderation and exercise. I love good bread. Sourdough is a favorite.
And quality is hard to move down from, but you can maintain it by de-prioritizing other things.
if you freeze stuff you don’t have to worry about botulism.
SBA money ran out yesterday. I filed for both my businesses the second applications were being accepted. Was told yesterday I wasn’t going to receive any since my business had 2 owners on the application, and they are processing single owners first. The other owner is my wife… Can’t say I’m surprised. One biz is 8 years old, the other is going on 5. Feel terrible for my employees, but the well is dry. (Restaurant/alcohol) industry. At least I have a few kegs left to drink.
Sorry. I think there will be a large extension of that program soon if it makes you feel any better.
Yes I believe that as well. Reminds me of waiting for financial aid funds to clear in college so I could buy books 2 weeks into the term.. lol!
Our banker fucked us over on the PPP and dropped the ball. Now looking for another bank for after this mess is over. Chase can eat a bag of dicks.
We applied with another lender for the PPP and got the message today they were only processing for current customers. Their app proicess never said anything of the sort.
Now PPP is out of money so I guess we’ll try again with the next round.
Bad habits:
Drinking is about the same, but I’m spending less on it by not going out and drinking more hard stuff vs beer.
More screen time than I’d prefer. If I’m not working, I’m often on my phone watching a movie in the evenings.
Good:
Getting more regular exercise(walking every morning before work. Bike ride with my 6 year old after dinner most evenings)
Spending more quality time with my kids(playing badminton or baseball in the yard, bike rides, playing the wii together)
Spending more time at home on weekends now means more time for yardwork/projects.
Between the items mentioned above, that pretty much sums up 90% of my awake time. I’m thankful we have been blessed with great weather the last couple of weeks in Portland. It doesn’t get much nicer.
Project: Need to find/buy a firepit for the backyard. Also planning to rebuild the fence on the west side of our yard. It’s way overdue.
Smith keeping guys motivated? Hopefully he has some leaders on that team that can keep the guys motivated(Hamilcar, Gebbia seem like good candidates) Football really hasnt been on my mind much, but I would welcome back any level of football at this point, even if guys are out of shape and can’t stay on the field.
Oh yeah, I’ve been doing a ton of yardwork. Thatched the entire yard manually with a thatching rake. I do not recommend this! How hard is it to rebuild a fence? We have to do that at some point. You need an auger to dig holes and then pour cement in them to do it right, no?
Hopefully you de-thatched your yard:)
Hahah, yeah, that. Brutal! I saw some guy doing it on YT and it looked easy. Of course, I didn’t realize how small his yard was, and then I didn’t factor in my lawn looks to never have been de-thatched…
I did that once! Lesson learned.
Lol…exactly.
It’s a good workout. That’s about the only good thing I can say about it. Oh and you can use the thatch in the garden…
Fences are easy. I can’t build or repair anything. It’s family joke. Once a buddy and I were watching a football game. One of the kids came in crying… “where’s mom????” I ask… “what’s wrong.” Kid says… “my bike chain came off.” Me… “she’s upstairs.”
My father helped me build a big deck on a new house. Just by observing and helping him I was able learn enough to build a straight fence along the backyard property line. We sold that house in 1999, but the fence is still up and looks good. Go for it.
Do the posts need replacement? A pressure treated post set in concrete should outlast the boards and cross members. You might get away with leaving the posts which makes replacing the fence pretty easy. Just use a string line so it is all even and pretty.
I’m not sure because I’m not at all inclined with that stuff. The fence is standing and not bending, so I think the posts are okay. One post is bending, but it’s a large yard, so if one needs replacing that’s not too bad. When I bought the place the realtor told me I’d need an auger and cement to fix that one post correctly. I was looking at fence prices, and they’re insane, so I was hoping to do it myself. I guess I’ll YT it when the time comes, but it sounds like it’s possible from what you’re saying. The fence is 30+ years old. It’s original to the house. If I don’t replace all the posts, won’t they begin to fail before the boards and cross members?
Yeah, that is the crux, if the posts are good for only a few more years it may be worth replacing them now. You could use post hole diggers to replace a few but if they all need replacement an auger would make quicker work. Or pay someone with an augur mounted to a tractor to just dig the holes for you. Hand held augurs kind of suck to run.
Fences aren’t hard. What kind do you want to build privacy or a picket style?
It’s a big privacy fence in the back yard. Pretty large area.
It’s not hard if you know what you’re doing, but I don’t. Want the job? Send me a bid!
actually you should get a bid just to see. I’m sure 2 extra stimulus checks won’t cover the down payment if its big.
I’m assuming when you say big it over 100 feet of fence? Is it falling apart with rotten boards or is it just dirty and weathered?
Dirty and weathered, but a few boards are popping out. I think nailing or screwing them down will fix that part. When it gets nicer out I’ll go do routine maintenance on it and assess. The yard is like 8.3k sqft so I think that’s in that 90-100ft range just doing the math in my head.
My hunch is someone will want 7k to do the fence. F that. Maybe 5k for a journeyman type guy. I got a quote for a small deck that didn’t even need to be raised (literally just wanted a grill and a few chairs worth of space) and the guy wanted 7k for that. It’s expensive here.
So they make a cedar/redwood deck and fence cleaner that’s amazing. That is if your fence is cedar. Even out of weathered old fences it works wonders to bring the color back out. I know behr makes one and Thompsons water seal makes one.
Basically you just wet the wood with it and let it sit for a few minutes then hose it off.
I’m not a professional, so this is just me being cheap and not wanting to pay for the labor or rent expensive equipment.
I may get lucky and get to re-use several of the existing posts, which will save some time. Will probably dig the remaining post holes by shovel or post hole digger after removing the old/bad posts. From my experience, the placement of the post is more important than the size/shape of the hole. Just dig the hole, set the post (pressure treated 4x4s) and support it with temporary support pieces to keep it straight, and then pour the concrete in.
After the concrete sets, it’s not going anywhere.
From there, it’s just a matter of putting up a couple of rails between each post with brackets, and then hanging pickets with a nail gun.
Fortunately this side doesn’t have any gates, so it’s pretty much just time and effort. The more i think about it, the less i want to get started…
Re fence, you’re on the right track. If it’s a wood fence, use sunwood treated 4x4s for posts, 2′ deep on the hole and one bag of concrete per
hole. May want to hire out augering the holes, or rent a gas powered one that’s tractor-attached. For picket boards, go quality, find the ones
1″ or near 1″ thick. Use BOXED galvanized nails, esp. if you plan to clear stain. Bulk nails tend to get mixed in with others. I suggest triple
railing as opposed to 2. Put a cap rail on the top 2×4. Important: I would touch edge to edge on the pickets as you go along. They tend to shrink some when wet, leaving a gap, but if not cured properly, may not swell up when drying out, and can leave a 1/2″ gap or more between them.
Preserve your hard work with a quality paint or stain, which imo comes down to 2 words: sherwin williams. Deal with an actual paint store,
I say. It’s what they do. Depending on the size of your job, using a roller and back brushing is the best, but it is labor intensive. I put in a fence,
40 post holes, about 300′ in lenght, 20 yrs. later still holding up really good.
Thanks for the tips. I should have mentioned, I need to put caps on all of the posts, or at least cut them at an angle. Those flat tops are about the only part of the pressure treated posts that get weathered. Leaves a jagged top after years of rain sitting on top and having nowhere to run off.
You mention setting the pickets so they start out touching. I usually use a single nail as my gapper. But i also dont mind if the gaps grow a little. As long as pets cant get through, that’s all i’m care about. It’s not for privacy as much as just function.
I’ve had good luck when staining a fence using a cheap garden sprayer and back brushing.
As to stain, agree with Ochoco, go for quality. That usually means content includes linseed oil. Cabot and even Olympia used to have stains with linseed oil base.
If you’re not a snowflake, you should be able to use a good ‘ol post hole digger for most situations. If ya decide to rent an auger I’d suggest getting a two man type.
I looked up a post hole digger. Isn’t that the same as an auger? Looks the same in my images.
The smaller fence around are garden is brand new and looks nice compared to the old fence. We weren’t sure if we should just let it go and age or put some kind of protection on it each year? Seems the latter could be time consuming and expensive. But it does look nice right now. Any suggestions?
Pics of both a “digger” and a few “augers”:
https://www.homedepot.com/c/augers_equipment_rental
As said, if you go with auger the two man is best unless your ground is sandy/soft.
Protection for appearance = stain with linseed oil.
A few things I’m up to.
Learning spanish.
Made a second garden.
Expanding my solar power.
Learning the banjo.
Doing an axle swap on my truck.
Thinking about redoing the bedliner in the truck.
Drinking! Angry dont feel bad you’re nowhere near me. Lol
Are you using Duolingo? I’v been on it for years. Free and fun.
Si
I recently heard about these and am co side ring using them to replace a couple of posts that are leaning due to trees.
https://www.trafficsafetywarehouse.com/mobile/U-Channel-Sign-Posts/productinfo/ISCUP/
My days are actually pretty normal.
My business is still open and running, normal hours. So the off time is fairly normal too. Aside from being unable to go anywhere in my off time.
I’m trying to limit screen time and the weather has been absurdly nice, so lots of time spent on the patio with the family just chatting about things in life. Board games and recently a fascination with quality puzzles. But those are becoming increasingly difficult to source. At $50-$100 a clip they get passed on to family and friends.
Screen time is mostly spent on brainless pursuits… How did the Swiss Family Robinson land on the only island in the world with one ostrich, one baby elephant and a zebra?
I’ve been discovering the joys of frozen and canned food. Livin’ that BPA life!
People are drinking more because there’s few barriers to cut them off. No bartender to stop serving, no price to stop buying, no car to drive home, etc.
I think people are spending the same on alcohol, just getting more value by drinking at home.
Exactly. On my walk this morning most of the area had their glass recycling bins out by the curb. Was kindof amazing how full aome were with liquor and wine bottles(local hobos had already cleared out any beer bottles)
Some of these households are putting the booze away. Pretty impressive.
I’m am definitely drinking more because I can’t sleep. But I didn’t exactly shy away from evening cocktails before this either.
I am saving so much money it is ridiculous though. Usually have $3-500 dollars left at the end of the month, looking more like I’ll have about $1000 this month and that is after dumping $500 into an online poker account to kill time. And that $500 should last the entirety of this pandemic so next month will be nice (I make more in May/June too).
Thinking I’ll get to take nice vacation or 2 after this is over.
If you have an extra $500, you should invest in toilet paper futures for that second wave!
@Youngorst, evening cocktails you say? I couldn’t tell.
I’m enjoying a new routine. Getting up earlier. Listening to Phlash Phelps on Sixties on Six for a couple of hours in the morning. Getting a lot done on my writing projects (when I’m not jousting with folks here). Enjoying mid day walks and seeing every one out with their dogs. Lost six pounds. Learned how to use Zoom for meetings & family chats. That’s a big deal for me since tech intimidates me.
Looking forward to seeing BeeG in the desert at the start of next baseball season.
Writing projects??
A kids book, perhaps?……”Angry Beav Builds a Fence” or “Mimosa Drinking Math Teacher Says a Naughty Word (repeatedly)”
“BeeG Cracks a Joke”
The possibilities are nearly endless!
Maybe “Great White Hunter Bags a Spring Turkey”…….BTW, anyone heard from GWH lately?
Even, from below, “Dan Shares a Secret”…to wit:
OSU has their own police force now to “better reflect the values of the university” like wanting a winning basketball team and not busting good players for nickel and dime stuff.
great titles, OOBie. You and me and BeeG need to get together some time. Maybe we can go out on my new yacht and have a few mimosas.
If you’re snowflake enough, you can have the mimosas; BeeG and I will try to locate some Deschutes Red Chair!
on nitro!
Beavs pick up another Juco Transfer, Mo Calloo who started at Oklahoma state before he got suspended due to legal troubles and transferred. He’s 6’10 and has a good game inside and can shoot the rock as well. Puts us at 2 scholarships over the limit so I’d expect a transfer from Antoine Vernon and then Thompson declaring for the draft or him paying for school his last year opening up a scholarship
I think the guys from Canada will be the likely guys. International travel issues could last for a while. Miller Moore and Vernon.
Who’s going to play point if we lose Vernon AND Thompson? That’s a scary proposition.
Gianni Hunt
Hunt has a good handle. He’s tends to rush things but he should be the primary pg next year regardless. Ethan will be a combo guard.
We never have a point. Classic tinkle.
Calloo is from Canada. Maybe an issue?
Here’s a quote from his year at OkSU:
“Mo is a really smart kid, he’s really intelligent,” Boynton said. “He’s stubborn a little bit, and I think early on he allowed his his stubbornness to get in the way of his progress. We talk about progress over pride, and he had a little bit too much pride to allow himself to grow early. And he wanted to prove that he could shoot his way into the lineup”
And here’s why he left OkSU:
“Calloo was one of three players dismissed last week related to the incident along with Michael Weathers and Kentrevious Jones.
The Tulsa World reported in the aftermath of the dismissals that Stillwater PD investigated the vandalism incident and found a Rav-4 with a shattered back window, approximately 30 BB holes/dents in the windows and body, and a total of roughly $5,000 worth of damage. They also found a Chevy Cruze that had roughly $500 worth of damage and also had its back window shattered”
Oh good. Tinkle picking up a vandalism major. Sounds similar to a stupid drunk Wetzler breaking and entering at his neighbors house
Should have gone to Idaho…
Well he’ll, give a kid a red Ryder….
Excellent comment!
Oh still hanging around Flando? It’s not like he is picking up players that assaulted and/or raped women and then is playing in the tourney or anything.
and knew about beforehand.
Go ahead and link your proof of charges. I will wait
You mean like when Casey knew about Heimlich but recruited him anyway? Gotcha
Low hanging fruit
You’ve been outdone just admit defeat and go home. If you respond to this it just verifies what we all knew.
Those are all false accusations because the duck players would never do that… “Allegedly” is a common word at UofO
Translation, you couldn’t find any facts or charges. good work detective
Still here huh? I get that it’s a quarantine but damn make some friends.
I have a tee time at The Reserve at 3:10p. Thanks for your concern
Bleed orange out your ass. What are you babbling about now?
That’s the lamest shit you could’ve replied with. Its hilarious because you think it was a cool answer.
No way! Thats so cool. You’re so awesome. Whats it like being a caddie?
Cool story, college kid getting drunk, that’s unusual. Say as an uck fan can you get me a good deal on a used laptop?
Sure, rodent fan diminishing the B&E crime. Good work. Deflect, deflect, deflect
So about that laptop, is that a no go?
It’s all good. OSU has their own police force now to “better reflect the values of the university” like wanting a winning basketball team and not busting good players for nickel and dime stuff.
Gotta say, OUTSTANDING !!
an upvote just isn’t enough!
Men’s bball signs another player. Means two scholarship guys from last year are leaving.
Any thoughts as to who might be leaving? 2 is only if the Nichols St transfer is granted a waiver, right?
Nm, I thought we only brought in 4, forgot about the actual HS signee so there 5 total with 2 graduating. Wonder if Ethan goes walk-on as dad gets a discount on tuition.
Dastrup transferred out too. But i dont know where the other wiggle room comes from
Oh that’s right. So 4, maybe 5, for 3 spots. Good looking out.
Drinking way more. Was in a couple drinks 2-3 times a week. Now probably drinking 3-4 beers a day. Never even getting tipsy or even buzzed.
Absolutely 0 free time. My biz is still open but running a skeleton crew. Working from home with 4 kids = constant interruptions. Only really get to sit down and hammer out paperwork after they’re in bed so end up working 9:00 pm – 1:00 am (staring the day around 6:30.) I used to at least get 30-60 mins of Daily Show, John Oliver, etc… a night
Getting some projects done around the house. The additional family time although mentally taxing in the end is better for the family. It’s been a large adjustment but I imagine looking back will be a moment in time that I kinda enjoyed. But hopefully will be back to 1/2 normal sooner then later.
That being said: it Really makes you realize life moves too quick, especially when you have sport aged kids. We are able to actually cook food meals every night instead of shuttling kids to practice, scrambling to make quick meals, etc… getting in actual quality family time.
“ We are able to actually cook food meals every night instead of shuttling kids to practice, scrambling to make quick meals, etc… getting in actual quality family time.”
That is great. Sports can dominate family time, especially with the travel extent often expected these days. I bet when they look back (if not already), your kids will value this time.
Agreed here. We spent a lot of time traveling for sports when I was growing up, but we were together as a family. Lots of good memories from this.
WNBA draft today. Pivec was projected first round pick earlier this year, falling to the second round now.
She’s going to make less money than me.
Will she shower with fewer women than you?
I’m trying to up those numbers. Lol
Be careful. Your sheep will get jealous
Low hanging fruit right there .
The other OSU, the one that couldn’t catch Artavis Pierce, estimates 5* recruits (Rivals ranking system) are worth $650K to schools, while 2* recruits cost schools $13K. I haven’t read the study, but thought some here might find it interesting for this thread:
https://news.osu.edu/study-estimates-revenue-produced-by-top-college-football-players/
It’s been the same old grind for me with the exception of hanging with friends on weekends.
My mom on the other hand (retired, hobby seamstress) has been making cloth masks for the community(free)and selling them out of her Etsy shop for $5.00 each w/$5 shipping to anywhere in the country. She started selling on April 2nd and has made $1500 so far. There’s a huge demand for these things and she can’t keep up. The extra money has been great for her. I might add that the $5 price is amongst the lowest out there. She doesn’t want to take advantage of people but wants a little something for her time. HannaStCreations is her store name on Etsy if you guys are already planning on getting some sand want to help out A Gramma Beaver. She did have some Beaver masks but I’m not sure if she still does. Anyway stay safe everyone and try to enjoy the downtime if you’ve been deemed non essential.
Beaver masks? Didn’t know those things could cough!
It’s the sneezes you have to watch out for
You wanna watch out for the white stuff that comes out after they’ve been active.might get you pregnant
I was actually just looking for some of these. Was going to order a Mariners one until I read this. Ordered one white and one Orange. Thanks man! ?
No problem!
Angry, you wanted economics. Here’s one for you:
M2 velocity of money stock vs. S&P 500. Notice how any attempted increase in velocity leads to a 10-20% drop in stocks a few months later.
This being the case, with all the new money being created and velocity presumably falling to new lows, won’t the S&P continue climbing? It’s already been disconnected from fundamentals for years, there’s no reason for that to change now.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qKga
Tried to embed the chart above, but it didn’t work.
Yeah, I get the flow argument, and it will probably continue to work. But that is pure speculation not investing, imo. You really can’t “go long” when stocks are 90% overvalued. But you can speculate on momentum and try to time the run and then the get out before it crashes next time. The only way stocks aren’t 90% overvalued is if earnings double. Is that possible? I guess if with the trillions in printed money share buybacks continue then it is possible to increase earnings per share. Either way, though, complete disaster. I think the pain trade is clearly to the upside at this point. That’s fine with me. I bought some stuff almost exactly at the -35% lows, and I’ll gladly sell it to idiots if we hit all time highs. Until then I am doing nothing, though. The FED is likely buying stocks already, but if not they will be, so that’s something that might make me hold what I have forever. Permanent floor, and the final nail in capitalism, if they’re in there buying.
Given what is going on at the Treasury and their new relationship with the FED, I’d say it’s a lock stocks go higher into the election.
I think the bull argument is you have to throw valuation metrics out the window at this point (at least for the broader market). Especially if you’re comparing to historical averages, you’re basically comparing between two different markets and two different financial paradigms. There’s also the question of alternatives. When weighing investment options, the guys with the big money can only put it so many different places.
There are a lot of hedge fund managers and bank CIO’s saying this without saying it, e.g. “we expect generally higher prices based on policy adjustments.” I’m starting to think the only thing that will shift this is actual bankruptcies (outside of the really weak retail stuff that everyone expected anyway). No one wants to actually realize losses (think of the jobs!) and our policy is supporting that.
It’s another thing entirely if you disagree with investing in “overpriced” stocks on principle. I’m with you on that.
The stuff I bought on the -35% dip was cheap, IMO, and undervalued. e.g. Amazon in the 1800s, Goog at 1100, Netflix at 295. ISRG at 405. These are huge winners, IMO. So there were pockets of organic growth on that last dip that I jumped all over. There are about 5 to 10 stocks I’d want to own right now, and they all have perfect balance sheets and legit, organic growth rather than bailouts or teat sucking. The rest of the entire market is overvalued turds. If someone wants to buy a turd because they have a lot of free money that’s on them, but I’d buy other things with that liquidity.
The market has been this way for like 8 years now where bad news is good news because it means more printing, so I get it, and I will trade that type of thing, but I don’t go “long” and actually invest in it because the valuations overall suck. Ride the momentum, then when the indicators say get out you leave.
This isn’t a political post. Just an economic observation.
For an economy that is supposedly shut down, just take a look outside. I was driving around 82nd avenue in SE PDX on my lunch break. There’s nearly as much traffic as you would see on a normal Friday afternoon. Nearly every store I passed was open, including the Sportsman’s Warehouse, Dicks Sporting Goods, Walmart, Fred Meyer and pretty much every smaller shop in between. Most restaurants were open with take out service. Seemed the most affected businesses I passed were the bars and hair salons.
I didn’t go as far as the Clackamas Mall, which might be a different story.
I do like the Sportsman’s Warehouse, but was surprised to see it open. I guess hunting/fishing supplies could be argued as essential for people to get their food. And I was impressed to see all of the dudes lined up out the door in 6 ft increments, waiting to get inside. It’s a pretty big store, so I’m a little surprised it’s busy enough to have a line out the door. Unless maybe it was doomsday preppers buying up all of the gear and ammo they can get.
I’d say those stimulus checks are making stores find whatever justification they can to keep the doors open.
Point being, things aren’t as totally shut down as you’d think right now.
At least from the snapshot I just experienced.
The malls should be closed down, all malls indoor and outdoor were suppose to close with Brown’s last order.
Just realized why the gun store had a line out the door, but that conversation belongs in a more political thread, so I win’t get into it
They’re only allowing so many people inside the store at a time. They’re doing it at the sportsmans closest to me also. And they’re doing pretty good spring Chinook fishing right now, so there’s that. My buddy fish at Willamette Park on a Tuesday and said there were at least a hundred boats out. They also banned out of state fisherman.
2 downvotes for adding a fact to the discussion?
Neat….
And for people that don’t understand context, I was responding to NB’s statement about “not knowing about the Clackamas Mall”
Yeah I got a downvote for recommending my Mom for your cloth mask needs/wants. So much for thinking we’re all in this together and help each other out when we can…
As a consistent down vote receiver who is often confused I feel your sadness. I think your mom is doing an awesome service and cool method for getting by. Carrots mom is dope AF.
There are “serial downvoters” on this site. I wouldn’t give it too much thought.
Seems like many box stores have gotten classified as essential but small brick and mortar are struggling.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/oregon
No idea of the validity of this model and don’t care right now, just wanna hope it’s true for now. May 25 target date for loosening restrictions in Oregon
Hey hey! I got something possibly right:
Nicebeaver April 12, 2020 at 11:51 am
Maybe I’m too optimistic, but I think the state wide lockdown gets lifted between may and June. They may still have a public gathering ban for certain crowd sizes, but those will eventually be relaxed too.
Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while. ;)
Just kidding.
I think that’s likely, too. No way we pass up seeing an entire summer of girls in scant clothing. Guys would rather drown in their own lungs than do that.
As someone who became single about 17 minutes before this lockdown began. This is 100% truth.
I also have family related reasons I’d like this lifted. A family member in the at risk category needs a dental surgery and if she doesn’t get it “in time” it could be the difference between being in pain everyday and being relatively pain free.
Apparently such dental surgeries aren’t deemed critical. But to this particular person it feels pretty critical.
The dental stuff is a PPE issue. If health providers feel they have an adequate supply of gloves/masks, they’ll start providing those services again.
Curious how this has affected you in Minnesota, BG? Are you still working, or did your business get put on hold?
I need my glasses filled. Can’t see shit. I got the Rx before this and been waiting to get them cut. It’s really annoying. But it’s better than dying of Covid, so…first world problems I guess.
@Angry – this company gets lenses and frames out in 7-10 days usually. Great prices and decent products. My wife and in-laws use them aswell as many members of the arthritis group.
https://www.zennioptical.com/
Angry, what about Costco? They’re still open
That’s who I use, and I can’t get through to their optical department on the phone. Very frustrating.
I’ll wait. It’s a first world problem, sort of.
Youngorst, dentists can provide essential/emergency care in most states. Some governors have issued pretty draconian orders initially because they were worried about PPE supply. As it stands, if a patient is in pain or the situation is going to get worse within three months, they should see a dentist. There are offices open for emergency care. Dentists help keep people out of the emergency rooms so that the hospitals can handle other emergencies.
This is correct^^^^^. Offices in MN are shut down for routine stuff until May 1st with the general feeling that it will be pushed back further. The kicker is that anything involving a handpiece (drill) or ultrasonic generates an aerosol of up to twelve feet.
The shedding from the mouth /throat makes that a huge hazard for the providers and staff. It also complicates room clean up.
@Youngorst, in MN they have set up a system where patients are mainly being seen at Oral Surgery offices in collaboration with the general dentists, as they have more PPE used for surgical cases. I would check with the State Board of Dentistry for clarification. Good luck.
mik
https://twitter.com/BeaverWBB/status/1251309414675431424
Good for her!
I second that.
Played golf today and the course was packed. Given that golf is one of the few things we can still do, the courses have to be loving all of the business. If you haven’t had the opportunity to play Creekside Golf Course, it’s a beautiful course but the back 9 is long and challenging.
Long and challenging! That’s what she said
I did too, GS — at Ocean Dunes Golf Links in Florence. Spectacular day, albeit a bit windy.
I did too Swammi. The Reserve! Great day to be out buddy. Creekside is usually dead and bleeding money like crazy. This unemployment thing might be the best thing for them in the short run. Until people can’t pay their memberships anymore.
Danny seems to have improved the situation although golf courses aren’t typically money making ventures. Biggest issue for them is their astronomical water bill and their restaurant food isn’t great. Despite that a very beautiful course..
If a course like Creekside doesn’t have someone going off every 8 minutes it costs them a fortune. 30K water bill per month from the city and non-golfers having their HOA upped won’t tolerate well. Hence the lawsuits pending. SGC on the other hand is packed all the time. Even Battlecreek was steady before the same developer that is trying to build homes on Creekside tore it up. Pence was smart to get bought out by Kelley and got out when he did. Never should have let Dana go as the pro. I thought he did a good job in an unfortunate power struggle.
Played in Central Oregon, it was great!
They opened the courses in MN today.
STOP THE PRESSES!
https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/2020/04/no-1-wnba-draft-pick-sabrina-ionescu-signs-endorsement-deal-with-nike.html
I’ll admit it – I’ve seen her play a lot and she does pretty much everything very well, but I don’t know if her game will translate to the WNBA. There are better passers, better shooters, better rebounders. In a league that being dominant in one skill area rather than very good in a lot – it will be interesting to see how she thrives. Having NIKE behind will always help, but would she start on the women’s national team now? No. Probably a rotational player.
Yeah, I said it.
Bahahahahahaha. “I don’t know if her game translates to the WNBA”. Dumbest thing I have heard in a long time even from a beav. Must be why she dropped 30 on Team USA. Keep your day job GM. SMH. Absolutely moronic statement from someone that clearly should stick to baseball or something else. I think I will go with Kobe, Taurasi and Bird instead of you. No offense. Even Pivec’s game translates but unfortunately she will have trouble sticking on a roster. Biochem degree looking like a better alternative to make money for her.
You must find all the down thumbs very exciting; just what you live for. As our wannabe dictator likes to tweet “SO SAD!”
You think I give two shits about what someone like you thinks? Literally everyone in higher levels of basketball thinks she will be a huge success. Why in the world would they choose her first if “her game doesn’t translate”. I didn’t see any of the other fine players in college dominating Team USA like she did. She looked like one of them and looked better than Sue Bird and several others on the court. Those are highly decorated basketball veterans that have won every conceivable award at every level of basketball they have played. Downvote it all you want. Some people just can’t handle facts because they aren’t Duck fans. I find that amusing as hell
She will definitely have a bull’s-eye on her back and will have to earn the respect of her peers at that level…i think other players will take the opportunity to push her to her physical and talent limits to prove her value. I don’t think it’s going to be smooth sailing for her at least in the beginning. Like I said, she’s going to have to earn the respect and not just rely on her success she had at Oregon. Hopefully, she doesn’t become an ego centric player and let all of the hype go to her head. Proving herself in college was one thing but doing it in the WNBA will be quite another thing.
Exactly what every other draft pick ever chosen has had to do. Why wouldn’t you want people to push you to your limits? Targets on her back won’t be any different than they were for stewie, Maya Moore, Taurasi etc… Like those players, she lives for that kind of stuff. That’s the whole idea of competition. She has already earned the respect of her peers based on all the interviews from players that have been in the league for years. But yes, just like every other player on the court, she will still have to prove it every day.
Yeah, you want to be pushed to your limit but I think they’ll try to get into her head too…she’s gotta prove herself on the court. She did that in college but remains to be seen at the next level. She’ll have so many distractions in NY and all of her endorsements, etc. Let’s she if she can stay grounded as fame and fortune has the potential to change and distract young stars as well as seasoned veteran’s.
They have tried for 4 years to get in her head. Hasn’t worked yet. ASU with their rough play and cheap shots, double-teams. Box and ones….didn’t work. She only got better each year. Team USA (Sue Bird) dogged her all over the court and never left her side in the 1st quarter and Sabrina may have had two point if I recall. Proceeded to score 28 from then on. She is a very grounded person and that is very apparent in every interview she has given. She will be a star in the league as long as she stays healthy. The women are different than they guys heading to the NBA.They don’t make near the money so they. can’t afford to be idiots and go out and get caught up in all the BS the men do. The cars, the lifestyle etc… 90% of WNBA players play in Europe during the off-season just to support their income. Much more grounded than the men
Angry- stop being a 60 year old pervert
Fanno, why don’t you get a hotel with her already?
Still waiting on my $912 stimulus check. Lol. I could buy a new set of irons. I’m driving my 3 wood off the tee. at about 230 yards so my woods are good. I could use a new putter or 60 degree wedge. I like my Diablo Edge irons and my Ping G10 driver. I like the new Callaway driver too. I’ll make a trip to fiddlers green when things open back up.
Lol….another example of how the federal government can’t even get the stimulus funding in the hands of people that desperately need it and making those even more reliant on the government for their survival. Fortunately, I’ve got a job so the delay isn’t an issue for me but for ten’s of thousands of people it is. I also hope that the new proposal for another series of stimulus goes through for people who really need it but that support always comes with a price sooner or later.
Tens of thousands? You must be talking about Oregon only. There 22 million people unemployed in the US right now. I guess that’s tens of thousands…2200 of them.
Yes, Oregon…..i know it’s a gross understatement but the point is they can’t even get this right.
Are you waiting on a check or direct deposit? Check were know to be way late from the beginning. I think the lower the initial payment the longer you had too wait. And the high earners were getting their checks in late August or early September.
I think this post is epidemiological not political, but if you disagree, just hit the thumbs down button.
IHME at UW did a major overhaul of its website overnight. Be sure to click on the update button for a technical analysis of their methodology. It’s very interesting. Bottom line: the interpretive focus has shifted from ventilators, ICU availability and the like, to an evaluation of how cases per million translate to the ramping down of containment measures. A few states, for example:
Oregon: May 25
Colorado (just for you, Angry): May 25
Washington: May 18
Michigan: May 18
Texas: June 1
New York: June 1
California: May 18
Idaho: May 11
Nationally, peak hospital resource use happened on April 14th. Total projected fatalities is 60,308.
PS: Washington governor Inslee was asked by a sports talk radio station in Seattle if there would be football this fall and he said odds on the season would be played.
About those kids books you’re writing……..
I thumbed you up, btw, but have you seen Singapore? They opened their economy and now growth is exponential. Wasn’t Singapore being lauded for how they handled the virus, etc? Of course you’ll hit peaks if everyone stops going outside. It’s what happens when you go outside. People don’t cheer when a pilot gets a plane in the air. That’s the easy part. They cheer when he lands it.
Be interesting to see how that works out. They look to be peaking infections like yesterday but that could just be an anomaly. Might be a case of economics taking precedence.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore/
Check Sweden and Russia. Sweden didn’t go into full lockdown. The experiment isn’t going well.
Russia tried to downplay things and now have cases growing exponentially.
Yeah, I didn’t want to be blunt and draw this into politics lol.
People testing positive a second time is concerning. Seems those numbers are going up. Not good. Vaccine is the best hope at this point. Not sure herd immunity is going to do much. My understanding is the virus mutates within a few months and nixes herd immunity. Someone correct me if wrong.
Here a decent article explaining the how’s, why’s and possibilities of double positives.
https://qz.com/1837798/why-some-covid-19-patients-might-have-tested-positive-twice/
Summary please? I’m headed out for a few hours…
Bad tests, bad testing methodology (not enough sample or mix ups in the labs), multiple strains, not sensitive enough tests (viral load is low but still exists, people over tax themselves after discharge and viral load increases), false positives and finally that anti bodies just are not enough. The last one is the scariest and least likely.
Thanks. That sounds like spin doctors to me (i.e. every reason they’re wrong, none why it might be right?), but time will tell. Isn’t occam’s razor in play here, and they’re testing twice simply because it comes back?
I’m back home will have to dig in more if I get in the mood.
It would fall outside the bounds of how viruses and adaptive immune systems work. There is rarely people who’s immune system basically has a memory disorder where antibodies fall off quickly after a threat is eliminated. It’s not common at all and we have no idea what the mechanism. It also tends to only happen for some infections and not others, we just have no clue.
This article is a nice pedestrian understanding of how human immune systems work and info on covid.
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-once-you-have-antibodies-are-you-safe-134209
SAFETY ALERT:
Since I recommended Linseed oil based stains for Angry’s fence a reminder is in order.
Linseed oil is safe to use BUT be sure to avoid spontaneous combustion by properly disposing of rags and cleaning brush/roller. Instructions on containers with details.
Now that I (may) have Angry’s attention………how are those tomato seedlings doing? True leaves showing? I still am amazed that 8 year old seeds sprouted at an 80% clip.
Back to linseed oil; it’s a great preservative when mixed with turpentine for wooden handles on those garden utensils you’ll be buying, or even on drift boat oars should you happen to have any. Don’t know about using in on guitar necks!
I was wondering about oil at elevation…sun is SO hot here I was thinking it might lite up the fence…lol.
The tomatoes are incredible to watch. They were just a seed with a little white sprout popping out last week, and now they’re in a potting cup/soil and growing leaves. Growing every day. I’ll have to take a photo. They must be 3/4″ tall now.
They were sealed in Mylar those 8 years in temperate conditions.
At Jack London state park in Sonoma, CA there is a Linseed Oil lesson. London built his dream house up in the hills out of stone and old Redwood because the Redwood was supposed to be virtually fireproof. Almost complete and it burned to the ground. Only the stone left. Workers were finishing the redwood with Linseed oil and the rags caught fire overnight. Whoops. Got to see a pair of CA condors at about 30 yards in a tree. Those things are huge.
And, it works wonders for conditioning a new baseball glove, although it’s said that neatsfoot oil is better!
@Alpha – can you recommend 5 local lagers or red ale and 3 IPAs that are locally owned in Central Oregon. We’re getting ready for a zoom board game night and it’s usually a six pack per person. Like to support locals are who are feeling it do no Deschutes or outside owned like 10 Barrell.
Not Alpha but….
While I don’t really drink beer anymore but when I did one that I enjoyed that I know is available canned is Goodlife Sweet As Pacific Ale. Another Ale I used to enjoy is Blond Bombshell from Cascade Lakes.
Most the IPA’s I used to like aren’t available in bottles/cans that I know of.
I like Good Life’s Descender as well.
Thanks for asking…right now Boneyard has a great deal at their pub. Tier 1 beers are $13 a three pack (32 OZ each), Our favorites in order are the Bonafide IPA, RPM, and Diablo Rojo. Boneyard has just started to can (more expensive) but I think they are at Newport Market. Another good deal was Cascade Lakes Lodge selling some of their beers for $6 per 6 pack.
Silver Moon has a walk up stand on Franklin, but don’t know if they have specials.
And yes, my drinking had gone up lately…the 32 oz are great – straight from the keg and canned for your use
Boneyard in cans would be awesome. Growlers are not always convenient.
Not Alpha but….
What do you have against Deschutes Red Chair NWPA ? When available I enjoy it.
Oh nothing at all. I just want to support the smaller breweries they need the help. Deschutes makes the vast majority of it’s money from distribution now. Not true for a small Brewer like alpha who has small distribution and a pub.
Deschutes might even be making more money than their normal spring.
Red Chair on nitro is fantastic!
Like young said that’s tough if you at looking cans or bottles, as the best stuff is usually in draft imo. Some new upcoming breweries that I have been enjoying are.
Bevel
Spider City
Bridge 99
Personally, I really enjoy the Mexican Lager from Sunriver,. But I don’t believe it’s in package yet, just on Tap. I think most of those breweries I mentioned are open for Growler Fills. Not local, but Pfreim is putting out some good beers in cans as well!
LOVE Pfreim!
Who thumbs down Pfreim?
Fight me
I’m no Alpha but…
I have a Sunriver Vicious Mosquito in my fridge right now
Haven’t had a Crux in awhile but remember liking their Pilsner
Wife enjoys Three Creeks IPA (can’t remember which one) from Sisters
Worthy IPA finds itself in rotation ocassionally
Somewhat on topic, I try to avoid buying any of the macros hiding in micro clothing, if I find something I’m unfamiliar with I’ll reference https://www.brewersassociation.org/independent-craft-brewer-seal/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwyur0BRDcARIsAEt86IAAutYw3MPLhJ-USnloQJ00oRAZ1-an0DrWcK-qsyHFyFJclFMwuFYaAsP0EALw_wcB
For sure. Busch has become the Murdoch of beer. They own loads of former micros and distribute under their labels.
FANTASY BASEBALL UPDATE:
After a slow 5-9 start the Beavs jelled against PAC-12 opponents and are sitting at 15-3 in league play, opening up a commanding lead in the PAC-12 standings.
After a nice, 6-2, win against Utah last night they take the field this afternoon. Non-league game Tuesday vs U of Portland. UCLA comes to Goss next weekend. Outfield bleacher tickets on StubHub are already going for $100.00.
HEY…..WHY NOT??
I’ve just finished listening to the replay of the 2018 game 2 at Omaha. Such a great and resilient team. I’m so thnakful to have watched those guys play for several years in person at Goss.
Mike Parker and Jim Wilson are priceless announcing that game. Such a build of emotion was present at the first pitch as a result of the prior year and the Heimlich situation, the flow of the game created even more tension/despair then ultimately exuberant joy in the 9th.
Check out Beaver Sports Podcast and take time to just listen from start to finish and appreciate the greatness of that team and Parker/Wilson.
They’ve also posted the Fiesta Bowl win, as well as the 2008 USC football Thursday night win.
I still think back to the feeling of will they bring in Heimlich game 3 in the ninth just to stick it to the umps. Glad they didn’t.got two wins without him.
Off topic (but actually ON topic of the blog)…
Not only is this year’s potentially cancelled football season a bummer since we have a pretty good team with decent prospects, it also sucks because it’s one of a few precious years left before pay-to-play hits like a hammer. I’m very bearish on that impact on college sports in general, but especially for a team like OSU.
While having coaching continuity certainly helps us with respect to this season if it is played, it sucks that we have a new QB who needs reps. It also sounds like the quarantine is a big detriment for recruiting, as we can’t get people on campus. Every coaching staff has said that getting talented players to Corvallis is a huge part of the battle.
It’s a great point. I keep reminding myself that everyone is in the same boat. The compressed timeline will really who coaching ability. Great staffs will simplify schemes and nail fundamentals like tackling and ball security. Not great staffs will focus on the most talented to ride through the early season. Gonna be a mess and I hope injuries don’t sky rocket.
I think the key will be for coaches to retain focus even if they think you may not have to pay. Tackling, ball security, AND blocking, should always be a focus. This is an opportunity for focused staff to make a move.
Imagine a team with prima donnas who think they can get by on recruiting reputation and physical talent…they’re probably a at least a 2 loss handicap if the season occurs on some short notice or compressed timeframe.
This was the most I’ve looked forward to a season since ’06. Figures it will get canceled…
Luck o’ da…
Me as well. Double screw job with my Gophers. The sports gods hate rodents!
I hear ya, Angry. All those Smith-4th down-decisions to look forward to. :)
Regarding the recruiting. I was going to ask Nicebeav what Smith has been doing.
At MN, Fleck seemed to be anticipating this and they rolled out a “virtual visit” as soon as the lockdown hit.
This past week may have been the best recruiting week ever, including a top 60 kid from Omaha. Scotty might want to check out the Nebraska boards for a good chuckle. They ain’t happy. Hopefully Smith has embraced the technology/communication aspect more than he seemed to do earlier.
I saw video of Smith doing face time stuff and showing facilities to guys prior to the shutdown. I can’t imagine they don’t embrace that now.
Hope so.
To be honest, I havent paid much attention to recruiting since this all started. It’s been a nice break. I just retweet stuff I see but that’s about it.
I know a few players have said they hate not being able to get out and visit campuses, because this would have been their time for that. And they’re worried their HS careers will get cut short before they get a chance to really show what they can do. Some guys blossom late physically, or they play behind seniors when they’re underclassmen, so this would be their time to shine.
Saw Nemec interviewed D Yray about OSU recruiting during this period. I havent read or listened to any of this, but here’s the link.
https://twitter.com/OregonianSports/status/1251663123372793865?s=19
Thx
Regarding death counts in NYC…
“How Many People Have Actually Died From Coronavirus in New York?
The official statistics paint a partial picture and may understate the death toll. Here’s why.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-death-count.html
Destiny Slocum to Arkansa?
Makes sense. The coach there was at UW and recruited her back then.
It was her destiny. That was the coach that let that one chick chuck up the rock every possession for the Dawgs. Loved watching Gabby guard her.
You mean college basketballs all-time leading scorer Kelsey Plum? Yeah, If I were her coach, I wouldn’t let her shoot at all.
Arkansas.
good luck to her, she is a great player, and I will continue to root for her
Beav in DE, highly recommend the latest Macro Voices with Chris Cole. Fantastic. It’s on YT for free. Summary: End of Capitalism thanks to the FED, but he touches on what we discussed with flow, etc. Also correctly mentions in high inflation stocks get wiped out in real terms. I totally agree with that, and don’t get the love of stocks in inflation…makes no sense they’re dollar denominated and dollars are worth 0. Dividends worth 0 by the time you get them to spend them. I think the market has that so wrong. I also think his points about implied vol being 65% and the vix trading at a discount at 40% is very much worth noting. Some other good stuff, too…pensions, etc.
I’ll check it out
OK…off topic but what the hell. What is the betting for CV19 babies vs. divorces — say by December? And what’s the over/under?
You asking in regards to this board specifically or more generally?
Either or both — perhaps a daily double?
I would bet on divorces.
I’m going babies. Logic: people can’t go out and find new chicks to bone, so they’ll bone what they got and be content with it. People being people, they will slip up and make errors. If you divorce now what are your options? Pretty much a RealDoll (TM) until 2022. Unless you find a girl into a PPE/latex fetish.
Not to mention the coming condom shortage due to factories being shut down.
I’ve found you can get 2 uses out of each condom by turning them inside out after the first use.
I thought they were washable, like cloth diapers…
Babies is why this shit happens.
Both. Plus increased alcoholism and domestic violence.
The last thing I would consider now, is bringing a new life into the world. It is precisely the wrong time, IMO.
I would not want my spouse to have to deal with being pregnant, having recently lost her job that’s not coming
back anytime soon, if at all, and a good chance the husband is facing the same. In times of real national crisis, americans have
rallied around their national leaders. Sadly that’s not the case right now. People vote as much about how they “feel” or if they “like”
or dislike personality traits or behavior. Trump is boorish, at times rude, dismissive, interruptive, despised by traditional politicians.
So was George Patton, for that matter.
I have one question, for those who are always critical of the president and the leaders he has assembled, doing their best to
deal with this crisis: in nov, they will have been involved with dealing with this terrible virus and the unavoidable damage it will
have done to the economy, for at least eight months. Will you take responsibility, stand up and be accountable for the consequences
of helping to vote Biden into the white house? I suggest you listen to his most recent interview on CNN. Then ask yourself if this, honestly, is really
what you would want for your country’s leadership?
Sorry, did not intend to wade into political waters.
Yes… as youngorst said last week. “I’ll vote for a potted pant over the incumbent.”
Agree I don’t care about dementia or anything else the propaganda machine throws at me. That’s what VPs and the Cabinet are for. It’s an “anti-authoritarian” vote for me.
I’ll go with domestic violence
Still haven’t forgiven her for the Disney trip? :)
Interesting.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/18/politics/cdc-coronavirus-testing-contamination/index.html
Isn’t CNN fake news?
Interesting squared
Well when this can be confirmed by multiple other sources as an ongoing month long sage. No cnn just another to report a series of mistakes and coverups at the cdc.
You drinking now bra’?
No I’m not drinking, why do you ask?
Soon
Who appointed the head of the CDC?
Hopefully this leads to more CDC labs. The single facility in Atlanta is great for containment but it has no redundancy or scalebility. Good article, thanks BB
concur. we need a regional system.
Macro Voice podcast mentions new evidence that a vaccine might be futile b/c evidence is suggesting the virus mutates quickly and you need a new vaccine. They admit early data and not peer reviewed, but say that’s what’s being suggested. They don’t quote their source. Anyone who follows the medicine more closely know? Also say the damage to lungs and other organs now being viewed as more permanent (I thought this was the case all along). Attacks T-cells now, too. People getting it a 2nd time get it even worse. Medical debate about whether this is a reinfection or infection that stayed in body and went dormant. Macro Voices isn’t one to over exaggerate anything. They do admit it’s not peer reviewed and all that and we can’t draw any conclusions, but their point is because we’re past “peak infections” we can’t say we’re all ready to go.
I don’t know the medicine enough to have an opinion and don’t really keep track of that side of things, but my basic knowledge of the medicine plus my advanced knowledge of how economies work, says 1.5 years minimum before “normal.” Just the economic side would be 1 year if things went to normal today, so 1.5 seems best case.
China really fucked over the world. IMO they should be barred from all global trade. We can find new manufactures with this down time. Use it to build factories in the US or elsewhere. If the FED used that 10tril they printed to bail out insolvent hedge funds to build US factories…
the South Koreans reported about 3 or 4 weeks ago about false negatives within hospitalized patient. They said they had about 30% of what looked like reinfection. Only to discover there was a 30% false negative rate with the test. People aren’t getting it again . It the test that can’t id the virus at ultra low levels. This isn’t new.
I have only seen a single article in newsweek, a few days ago, that suggested a vaccine is pointless. It basically compared it to flu which has a very high mutation rate. Evidence so far suggest covid, and corona viruses in general, have low mutation rates.
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mutation-rate.html
People talk about how we have a flu vaccine yet people still die of it. Most deaths any given year are from a strain that the last 3 years of vaccine didn’t cover or because people did not get the vaccines. There are several hundred strains of flu that affects humans and the flu vaccine is trivalent (covers 3 strains or subgroups).
Edit: Fuck China for so many reasons. I hope they lose 30% of their exporting and take 20 years to recover (with a new government)
FWIW: Thought I heard “quadrivalent” when I got my last flu shot.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/quadrivalent.htm
Ohhh good finally upping their game! Should help but the same problem will persist. It should deal with the know lineages of B for the most part but A evolves alot and there are like 100 known strains.
Well, I praise Gov. Brown about the covid19 response, but this is stupid.
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/coronavirus-testing-could-expand-in-oregon-right-now-instead-tests-sit-idle-amid-restrictive-guidelines.html
Seems like fear of running out of capacity. That needs to change.
to paraphrase GA (never thought I’d be saying that) “we’re testing the wrong f_____g people.” We should have long since started testing anyone who wants to stop by one of those drive in clinics rather than mandating that someone must think that they’re symptomatic before they can get a test. Or just do random stops like DUI patrols. The killer out there is the asymptomatic crowd who’s just roaming around infecting people.
New Boston homeless shelter testing study shows majority are asymptomatic carriers. Add this to the Stanford study and Germany study and it makes the mortality rate seem way lower.
.25-.5% is looking like.the right range.
Same should apply for the flu mortality rate or any other communicable disease. Think about how often you had the flu in your life but never had to see the doctor. The positive cases number has to be vastly under reported every year.
Interesting tidbit today: I bartered 5 cans of beer for yeast and weed.
People think a barter economy is impossible in modern times…
Well it’s like fantasy football, the value of items is very very subjective.
Should have gone with toilet paper.
I have a lot and he was good.
I don’t smoke weed or drink beer. So I wanted the yeast and some diversity!
I think I won the trade.
Its not that so much that the values are subjective. It’s that you need a common necessity of wants…you each have to want what the other is offering…or move on….five cans of beer for a live chicken…or something.
I told a friend about the article I saw where out-of-work strippers in Portland are delivering food, called “Boober Eats.” He said, “A barter economy may develop with their customers.” Cracked me up….
Yeah it will never become mainstream, but in a scenario like this the barter economy could become pretty strong and interesting.
So you had 5 beers and traded for yeast and weed? Thats not trading, its highway robbery.
Here’s a good sports topic,
A couple top basketball players are choosing to sign with the G league instead of going to college. No players went for the offer last year when it was first introduced but the NBA has upped the financial incentives after a couple guys went and played pro ball in Australia.
While this doesn’t affect OSU directly, indirectly it hurts all top programs. Makes things a bit more even. Should see a variety of programs contend for titles in the next few years.
Then in a few years when the NBA allows high schoolers to go pro again, there will be little left for the NCAA as those who wouldn’t be drafted can go into the G league. But that’s a good thing as all programs will have a much better shot at contending. ACC, BIG10 and SEC would be hurt most.
I like the mode for the high school kids going to the g league based on what I read. Sounds like they will play in some games against other nba level talent in the g league, get laid a decent chunk of money, and will have courses to help
Prepare them for nba life. Will wait and see how these first few turn out.
A few links that might be interesting:
1. Article on antibody testing:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0
2. Interview with Swedish Epidemiologist.
I edited this link to embed it. Makes it smaller and tidier.
If you guys want to embed YouTubes, click “share” under the youtube, then “embed” — it will give the code. You paste that not the url.
Testing, patience please, I’m oneoldbeav after all. Trying a few times.
Still not right. You have to click these buttons:
“Share”.
Then “Embed”.
Under the “Embed” link (far left next ot the Facebook link) you will see code that starts with “iframe”. That’s the code that has to be copied and pasted. If the code doesn’t start with “iframe” it’s not the correct code you’re copying.
OldBeav, that is correct but you need to copy the IFRAME tags not just what’s inside them. You copy it all. The IFRAME tags AND what is inside them.
OldBeav, I did it for you. Just hit edit and look at the code needed. You’ll see it starts and ends with IFRAME tags. You had it at times except you were missing the tags for some reason.
Thanks!
I’d swear I had pasted EXACTLY what worked when you did it. I’m on a laptop running Firefox.
BTW, what did you think of the song? It’s new to me, and in the fingerstyle I am working on.
It could be an issue with the type of browser you’re using to retrieve your youtube links, OOB.
I’ve seen in the past where the iframe link angry mentioned isn’t an option when using a mobile browser, but it is when using a desktop version of the same browser.
Also, I don’t think wordpress lets you embed links unless you’re logged in. But I’m assuming you’re logged in, so that’s likely not the issue.
Ah, that could explain it. Weird if mobile removes the iframe tag.
Keep in mind Sweden’s economy is oil based…of course they want people out and the oil flowing, else the entire system Socialist system falls apart, ala 1990 Russia. Does he talk about that? I’ll try to watch it, but I already know that bias so it will be tough. He might have a pension, etc, since he’s govt, too…
That is Norway. Sweden is primarily an export economy.
My bad always confuse those Countries.
Sweden and Denmark have 60% ish tiered tax rate and Norway had 35-40%. That’s how they pay for all the social programs and education. The offset is cause Norway has 2/3rd ownership of it’s oil interests and uses the cash on social programs.
All three have advanced economies based on export and service. So far they have all been robust against covid economically and health wise. Sweden had twice as many infections and way more deaths basically cause they have not used social distancing or isolation.
I took from the Swedish epidemiologist conversation that if you have an underlying health condition ( encompassing what?) and you are old – not sure what the cut-off number is there – or old and frail and/or in a facility and want to keep living, you should isolate. The numbers of young people who, wo underlying health conditions, have died from CV are statistically – emphasis statistically – minuscule. I don’t know how health-care
workers who have died, factor in. Gallatin county in Montana has the most cases of CV in the state – boom town – you will want to have purchased real estate there during the 2008 financial crisis- average age 33 (I assume that factors in university students) – 453 known cases – no deaths and few hospitalized. Shelby – otoh – has had a nursing home outbreak and accounts for 5 deaths in a 38-bed nursing facility. Not sure if being in an old people’s home in Shelby, Montana, wouldn’t . . .oh, never mind.
Angry, we know you aren’t much of a beer drinker, but still, I can’t believe you bartered away some of your lady’s beer!
Doesn’t this now leave her with only partial ingredients for making beer battered fish or Moscow Mules?
You’re a hard hearted (and maybe short sighted) dude!
Lol. She had excess and approved it, and she wanted the weed more than me. Neither of us smoke, but with this quarantine we figured it might be good to diversify the drugs for our own sanity.
What kind was it? A bad choice could make the sanity situation worse lol
Some kind of Kush.
Yeah be careful with indicas haha. It’s top bad side effects are paranoia and anxiety when over imbibed. Not true for though
Our friend had “Sativa” or something like that? And it was awful…my heart raced and I thought I was going to die. They all assured me Kush is the opposite and very mellow, so I went for the deal.
Ah yeah if you have that reaction to a straight sativa indica is probably the move. I use some sativa heavy edibles for pain management at night but smoking sativa makes me want to dig a hole to hide in. Indica makes me hear things haha
Is Kush an indica?
I’ve probably smoked weed 10-20x in my life. Kinda clueless.
Hybrids are nice.
Kush just means it originated in the Afghan region. If it’s not a hybrid them it’s an indica. Most modern strains are a hybrid of sativa, indica and ruderalis. You get different effects mixing different strains together. If you go to a dispensary they have these color wheel things where you describe what effect you want and it gives you a strain family to consider. For instance the stuff I use to sleep had good inflamation, pain and relaxation effects bit way less ‘high’ feeling.
If you ever consider investing in cannibas watch for labs that are isolating the cbds that cause these effects. The future will be going to a dispensary and just getting a pill that gives you the exact effects you want. It could even get to the point that they do custom designer pills for a specific person varying the levels of thc(s) and cbd(s).
Cool, thanks. I actually know all the Cannabis stocks, but I don’t know that level of detail. I think I was looking at Supreme and Hexo because they were doing things like this. I forget. I’ll have to have another look – do you know the names doing this?
The guy told me this stuff is super mellow. That’s all I know. I’ll test it tonight maybe. My idea is to smoke some weed, put on my reverb/delay pedals, trance out, and make some spaced out music to help with sleep. I have sleep issues.
Being in Colorado I highly recommend checking out a dispensary. They can really help finding strain, oils or edibles to help out with sleep. There are some sleep disorders like delayed cicadean sleep phase that it won’t help with but for many others it’s great. I have trouble getting my brain to STFU so if I add lots of pain it’s impossible to sleep. My options tend to be a pile melatonin, Ambien, half a bottle of NyQuil or 10 mg of edibles. Edibles work the best by far and give the least side effects in the morning.
I don’t know who’s doing what, I just follow the public research and clinical studies out of Canada. I don’t have the spare cash to play in the market so I tend to avoid the entire process or I just get depressed haha
Three day old interview with Gebbia from his folks home in S.Cal.
His level headed nature comes through in this 20 minute piece. Gives a nod to Luton along the way.
It’s the second one on the list of podcasts and if you’re short of time, I recommend at least the 1:30 to 5:00 portion.
https://osubeavers.com/sports/2017/8/4/beaver-sports-podcast.aspx
Guys, how to embed YouTubes instead of pasting the YT link.
1. Click “Share”
2. Click “Embed”
3. Copy the code (it must be the code that starts with “iframe”).
It looks like this: https://imgur.com/a/qQ99j3k
It should work for any video links not just youtube, if the site has embed code. Embedding is way better because the video is smaller. If you don’t use embed code the video is huge and gets in the way of the thread.
Our balls harbor the virus. My big concern here is it could damage them.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-18/do-testicles-make-men-more-vulnerable-to-coronavirus
There was a small Chinese study that showed it causes low testosterone and man boobs, even once symptoms go away.
I’m glad I’m done having kids and regularly do push ups!
Oh good I can blame my moobs on something!
Oh shit, it’s the plot from Children of Men becoming reality.
Anyone here beside me apply for a ppp loan? Did you have any success? And who here uses a community bank? Any suggestions welcome
Ruth Chris a publicly traded company gamed the system and received twice the maximum allowed, receiving $20M. What a country.
Still haven’t gotten ours.. in fact we haven’t received anything as of yet.
Alpha, OT but was trying to connect with you. I thought I read you distribute beer you brew from your pub. I have some stores and would be interested in talking about possibly carrying your product. Beavers helping Beavers… :)
If you guys want to connect but stay anon I bet angry can pass your info to each other if you flutter your eye lashes. Gotta be registered for him to have your email though.
…flutter your eye lashes.
Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
HA HA. Angry passed on email he had for Alpha but it’s bouncing back undeliverable/rejected. All ready fluttered my eyelashes… :)
Hey, my email is an old one, not sure if it’s still active. We aren’t canning yet, but should be in the near future!
It’s not! Shoot Angry an email he can give you mine and let’s see how things go.
Its a mess.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/paycheck-protection-program-small-business-missed-coronavirus-hot-spots/
Yes, We submitted our info to our bank day one when the program opened up. Got confirmation that our application was complete.
I was told end of last week we got an SBA number which is the acknowledgment you have a loan backed by SBA even if loan docs are not completed, yet. It signifies the money has been set aside on your behalf. It works this way with other SBA loans ie 7A.
Received email last night with our documents for esign. Signed and got completed copies back today.
We use a “community bank” or I think they were one. Also our bank is a SBA preferred lender, AND we had an existing SBA guaranteed loan with them. Not sure that factored in our approval other than they were already geared up to manage and submit SBA loans and didn’t need to jump through SBA hoops to become a SBA lender. They also are working three shifts to process the applications as well. I know they initially were only accepting applications from existing customers/account holders. They were going to open it up to others a week later but I don’t think that happened after the volume of applications they received.
The volume must be tremendous. We submitted to our bank day one. The day the funds “ran out” was the day our application was transmitted from our bank to SBA. Initially we believed we’d missed the window.
I have other friends who haven’t gotten any word or feed back. Some have multiple businesses and received confirmation of approval for one but not others…and all were submitted at the same time.
Glad to hear someone small got some cash. One of our neighbor businesses was notified too. Who do you bank with? I think the key is the community banks aspect, #FuckChase
These publicly traded companies like shake shack and ruth chris gaming the system is really disheartening.
Our only good news so far has been the cares act provides for our current sba loan to be forgiven for 6 months. That equates to about 8k, not a lot but will help soften the landing some, I hope.
Thanks OJ. Relieved is how we feel. We’ve been open and running but seen a HUGE decrease in business. Really concerned for my staff, I know personally I’ll be ok.
We bank with Umpqua Bank. I’ve had some go around with them in the past but they hit this one head on really well IMHO. I really think the key was two fold. One was SBA preferred lender and second was community bank that had their crap together. There are non SBA approved community banks that got shut out because they were not SBA approved yet.
FYI the Sba loan is not quite forgiven for 6 months. SBA is actually making the loan payment on your behalf. So your principal during that time will be reduced…interest paid. And I guess the better thing is that they will not be 1099ing you with those payments as income. Can you imagine paying taxes on the part they just paid for you…..
I don’t have an issue with publicly traded companies getting funds also because they have to be used for payroll and have ceilings on high wage earners and that helps out the whole crew. But the gaming the system…part. NO OK. Bring the hammer.
Hang in there. Rumor is SBA funding is being replenished. Make sure your application and required paperwork is complete. Incomplete ones get set aside….and well forgotten.
Call it what you will, our lender, ReadyCapital, used the term forgiven , ie we dont have to make payments and the loan iprincipal, interest and fees are covered, and that is backed up by the sba website ‘
As part of SBA’s debt relief efforts,
The SBA will automatically pay the principal, interest, and fees of current 7(a), 504, and microloans for a period of six months.
The SBA will also automatically pay the principal, interest, and fees of new 7(a), 504, and microloans issued prior to September 27, 2020.’
Thanks for the recommendation of umpqua, when things settle down some we’re definitely moving from chase
Here comes my depressing Covid update
US broke 3/4 of a million infections and 40k deaths today. Infections have been flat between 25k-30k for over a week. Deaths seem to be peaking.
We lead the world in totals and daily numbers by a good margin. Of the top #5 on the infection list we are number 4 for infections and deaths per capita.
We’re number one, we’re number one, we’re number one
#MAGA
the US is number one only if you believe the numbers China issues.
Yeah there’s no way China isn’t #1.
I ignore China’s numbers since we don’t have them and even of we did they would still be bullshit.
“We lead the world in totals and daily numbers . . . .” 4 comments up.
We do, we don’t have Chinese numbers.
nice cover story.
What point are you trying to make wanna. If you have the numbers let me know, with a proper source, and I can revise it.
Do you want me to just make stuff up? Do you just like fights? Do you want an obvious disclaimer on every single post about covid numbers listing countries with inacurate reporting?
The point I’m trying to make is that your post was misleading, and purposively so since you know any global total doesn’t include numbers from China. Initially I thought you were interested in the truth; now I know your goal is simply to make Trump look bad. Such an easy target. Challenge yourself.
I didn’t do any of that dude. Now your making a conspiracy about me. WE DONT HAVE THE CHINESE NUMBERS. I’m not going to make guesses or make them up.
I work with actual data, we don’t have it so per the data my numbers are correct. I made zero political statements I just represented the existing data for those who don’t watch it.
Once again…I don’t watch the news you hate, I don’t push their narrative and I am not a Chinese spy.
I understand you are a trump homer sucking the Murdoch juice but please only attack me when it makes sense at all.
Edit: You like be pretending you are the irony and logic cop. How the hell would China’s numbers make the US response look any better? Your own defensive posturing points out that you know the response sucks. When I make no statement about how we are doing and you claim I do it makes your defense ironic.
then you should have said, “If you make an exception for China, the US has the highest numbers.” but you didn’t. Only you can answer the question why. I just offered a potential explanation. A plausible one, proved by the vehemence of your response. As Shakespeare once wrote, “you protesteth too much.” The Fox News trope is just lazy.
You have gone off the deep end dude.
So not adding an exception to China is an attack on Trump. What about counting differences in various states? Iran? Germany?
Murdoch owns more than fox. Your lack of knowledge of his investment portfolio is lazy.
On the plus side, staying the weekend at a friends beach house in Seal Rock, and three mimosas in on a beautiful sunday over looking the beach, is pretty ok
Don’t have twitter but want to speak to the Block O hat that is being discussed on twitter. It took me years to find one. Ended up getting one on Ebay about a year ago. Haven’t seen one since.
I’ve only worn it once (Civil War last year) because I am afraid of ruining it.
I’ve got one too. Bought it during the Dennis Erickson years. Love the hat. Same sentiment…wear it infrequently.
classic design.
Had a Block O with Fiesta Bowl Chanpions 2001 on the side. Best Oregon State hat I have ever owned by far.
I have a okst doppelganger that was passed off as orst gear in the beaver bookstore back in the day. Still prefer it to the new logo but gathering lots of dust at this point. A replacement block o version would be a neat deal.
Re: the hat conversation
Here’s the hat I’m looking for. Anybody know of a good site for custom made ball caps with logos?
I want one pretty much exactly like this, but adjustable instead of fitted. I think the one Riley is wearing had the old 2000’s AngryBeaver logo on the back, which I could do without.
And I want to keep the orange accent stitching and button on a black hat, with the same logo.
https://images5.opb.org/c_limit%2Ch_350%2Cq_90%2Cw_220/news_mikeriley_rc8lvj.jpg
Here is a source I’ve used for ball caps. They carry several different designs, all decent quality. Not sure you’ll find the orange accent stitch though.
I think you’ll do best to buy the cap(s) and have it embroidered locally. I doubt you’d have any problem using a generic block letter. A copyrighted logo is, of course, another matter.
These guys will sell small quantities, maybe even singles. You should expect to pay around $5 to have a one color block letter embroidered at a local shop.
I used to do this as a side hustle. If you’d like, I’d do 24 units and ship all to you for distribution.
For just one or two hats you are best off to handle it as outlined above.
https://www.amprogo.com/manufacturers/port-company
Thanks OOB, I’ll look into the custom embroidery method. Unless there are 24 others on this site that want to go in on a bigger order?
I’d probably take another one (one to actually wear lol)
That is the one I have. Took years to find
eBay.
Still haven’t received my stimulus nor has the lady. The Socialist in chief and his swamp creatures are slackin’ off on the golf course again.
Remember AB is a small business. Microscopic, even.
Direct deposit or oversized Trump-signed novelty check?
We dont have direct deposit so we’re getting the check, maybe. I’m not counting on it though.
Mnuchin now claiming it was his idea to add djt to the memo line. He’s a good tin soldier, I guess
You realize there’s an income limit, right?
We got ours on Wednesday via direct deposit. Thought we would be over the limit, but go figure. Somebody on here mentioned you would get it faster if you got refunds for at least the last two years, yup that’s us. Spending half of it and saving the rest for emergency scenarios.
I’ve watched half of “They Shall Not Grow Old” so far. Hoping to finish it tonight.
It’s the WWI documentary put together by Peter Jackson. It’s amazing. Graphic and depressing, but a technically amazing film. For those who don’t know of it, Peter Jackson of LOTR fame decided to restore a bunch of old WWI footage. He took out the camera jitter and normalized the speed, while also colorizing and clearing up any defects with the original film. Then, he had lip readers decipher dialogue and dubbed in sound effects to make it feel even more authentic. And the film is narrated by actual recordings of British soldiers. The first 20 or so minutes start out with untouched stock footage, but when the program converts to the full screen touched up film, it really just comes to life. Can’t recommend it enough if you are up to the grim subject matter.
I found it on HBO OnDemand, but it’s also on Amazon for rental
Thanks for the recommendation. Will look it up
Apparently he got the rights for like 30 hours of background footage from Beatles Let it Be and is making a doc about that now that’ll be out later this year.
Anyone having a lot of issues with emails not sending? A lot of delivery failures…
All sorts of server outages the last couple weeks. Should be fine tomorrow.
Yo guys & gals my mom says thanks for the orders. She’s working on getting more beavs masks made but it probably won’t be until the end of the week. The local supply of elastic is all used up.& Every online retailer is backordered. Who would have ever thought we’d have a national shortage of elastic?
TP, elastic and yeast
And in 9 months give or take diapers…
Cloth is the way to go.
MJ in my opinion is best cannabis play for the long term. Remove the individual stock risk with this ETF. Includes Canopy Growth, Hexo, Tiluray, Aurora and many others. With tomorrow being 4-20, I wouldn’t be surprised if it rallied 3 to 4 percent tomorrow. CGC may pop a couple dollars to $17 or so too.
Oregon has a great natural advantage in this industry based off geography so may as well make the most of it for our economy. Can only make coming back from something like Coronavirus easier.
I agree on the diversity part of ETFs, but I hate paying expense ratios. It eats in big time long-term. MJ has a ridiculous .75 expense ratio.
I have a small amount of tiluray, I grabbed it around 3.10. They sign a deal with AB InBev to develop pot infused drinks. I thought that was intresting.
InBev can eat a bag of dicks.
End of message
That sounds ominous. I’d like to know more.
Sad I missed the redneck roundup in Redmond
https://www.bendbulletin.com/coronavirus/hundreds-disregard-stay-at-home-order-gather-to-protest-in-redmond/article_18d9f86c-8104-11ea-a290-475c0a803d67.html
Darwin lives!
your fellow citizens
Yup shaking hands and hugging during a pandemic. This is irresponsible behavior.
BJ Soper–the “leader”, nothing but a Malheur wannabe. Folks can protest, so long as they sign off from receiving medical attention after they are sick.
A beav great passed away.
https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2020/04/pellom-mcdaniels-former-oregon-state-defensive-star-and-nfl-veteran-dies-at-52.html
Nice video to go along with the article. He was way to young.
I am trying to find a wild beaver logo t-shirt or hat, anyone seen any?
https://www.sinisterdeluxe.com/
https://www.sinisterdeluxe.com/beers/amber-lager-wild-beaver/
I’m trying to find a wild beaver…
Did anyone else see the Starlink satellites Friday night or tonight? We saw them Friday night, they passed over around 9:30 pm and they were surprisingly bright. If I didn’t know what they were I would have thought we were being invaded. It was actually pretty cool. Thus website can tell you when they pass over your area: https://findstarlink.com/
I did! The latest batch had one that was 50% less bright and there supposed to reduce them another 50% on a later launch. Astronomers are pissed.
Yeah they are, I saw one article where the satellites ruined a time lapse photo of some constellation way out in space.
Nuke, the divestment of China has started.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/17/uk-moves-to-drop-huawei-as-5g-vendor-citing-china-coronavirus-transparency/
The Huawei pushback has been a long time coming. I don’t know why anyone in their right mind would be comfortable sharing virtually all data transmissions with what is essentially a Chinese SOE.
It’s cheaper. Same reason as all China stuff
Governments don’t care about cost, though, and they’re the best in the world at making them “disappear.”
Its true China is the best in the game. Much of their technological and economic projection has other goals such as massively invasive data taping
That was criminally stupid to embed the CCP into that system.
Excellent. Diversify, cut their economy, cut their millitary and cut all their projection.
Anyone have good resources for finding stuff that’s not made in China (preferably in the US)?
There’s some books out there with giant lists. The best way is to just look. China does manufacture and then distribute from other countries and it’s very hard to track.
Sounds like a great plug in though. Something that shows the listed origin in big letters or something when on a shopping site.
Often on Amazon, it just says “imported.”
I’ve found a few random sites that link to product pages for Made in the USA items, but they just look like monetized blogs run by individuals and are hardly comprehensive. It would be nice if someone had a storefront designed specifically for this (maybe an opportunity for Amazon or someone).
Yeah I haven’t found anything good. Might make a plug in for chrome if I get a chance and motivation. It would atleast let you know if something is imported and display the origin prominently if available.
PEAK China; the only good thing to come from all this.
China has actually gotten pretty expensive (relative to ten years ago) for manufacturing as their standard of living increases via production (and their own currency is being devalued, giving that illusion). I’ve read that India, Mexico, and a bunch of other places are now cheaper. They can list the virus as a reason, but follow the money…
Yup and their semi developed economy can’t react nearly as quickly to disruption these days.
China’s biggest remaining advantages as a manufacturer are their massive army of competent engineers and the supply chain advantage that upstream inputs/raw materials are readily available.
Tool and Die engineers, for example, have become rarer and rarer in the US as auto production (among others) left, which makes many types of manufacturing in the US harder to staff. China doesn’t have this problem.
100%. There are other countries that can do it (Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan) but it’s a high capital investment. There is no way to get away from China completely but a 15-30% contraction in manufacturing by diversifying supply chains would force them into some tight spots.
How Oregon State is recruiting.
https://www.oregonlive.com/recruiting/2020/04/oregon-state-football-director-of-player-personnel-darrick-yray-describes-recruiting-effort-virtual-visits-during-coronavirus-shutdown.html
We need a bot that automatically pulls text from any O articles and posts them here so we don’t give their site traffic.
Could just copy and paste.
The text is always worthless. You have to listen to their interviews to get anything.
Stocks fell 100 points (2950 on the SPY500) shy of exactly hitting the 62% Fibonacci retracement. On a technical basis, this “confirms” the move in stocks is nothing more than a bear market rally. It’s also concerning to see most of the people buying that retracement were retail investors rather than smart money. 2950 is the number to watch – if it breaks that on the SPY we could be out of a bear market (fundamentals still awful with extreme overvaluation; but the FED-induced, liquidity driven bull market would return).
Still, they’re rallying now and the NASDAQ is green!
The Macro Voices podcast you recommended was a good listen. I like the idea of the Dragon portfolio, though I’m not sophisticated enough to do the commodity trend thing. I need to figure out a layman’s method for approximating that.
They can rally to ~2950 and all the above would remain true. Crack that and everything turns bullish, on a technical basis. Technical trading doesn’t mean a whole lot and can reverse on a dime, so there’s that, but I’m sure you’d see a rush of money come in if 2950 holds at the close just due to the fact people use technical trading to confirm/deny momentum and trends.
I think I read in the Great Depression there were like four 100% retracements, yet the bottom took almost two decades to find. So, a lot of bull traps and head fakes possible. This is just the first major hurdle. More liquidity now than then, so there’s that…
Yeah Macro Voices is great. The Real Vision stuff on YT is great, too.
more accurately, Amazon is green. If Amazon were one of the Dow 30 the Dow would be green too.
Ironically, my stock account balance is pretty dead even from this point now compared to March of 2019. Any little glimpse of hope is really helping for things to rebound. Really depends on which companies you own in terms of long-term potential. As Angry said, this is the first major hurdle.
The shorts have piled into the market looking for another killing. sadly, it’s so easy for them.
Regarding China, I recommended these books a while back:
1. Poorly Made in China
2. 100 Year Marathon
3. Destined for War
Probably more relevant now than when I recommended them. Check your local library before buying.
Aren’t libraries closed?
If so, and you want to buy, check a local bookstore for curbside pick up or powells.com for delivery, ie not amazon
I use a website – betterworldbooks.com – I can usually find what it is I’m looking for at nominal prices – free(?) shipping – + carbon tax. I’m always checking to be sure they aren’t amazon and they don’t seem to be.
They sell on Amazon, too. I’ve bought from them on Marketplace. Never realized they have their own site.
I read Poorly Made in China at your recommend. I thought it was a bit chatty but worth reading. It was published about 9 years ago – lots of changes since then.
In a rare decision that didn’t fall along party lines SCOTUS threw out Oregon’s 10-2 Jury rule.
Thanks to the 6 judges that recognize the absurdness of convicting someone of a Felony without a unanimous jury.
Thomas, Kavanaugh, Gorsuch (wrote the majority opinion) Ginsberg, Sotomeyer, and Breyer.
Look forward to hearing why Roberts, Alito, and Kagan felt a law that was meant to reduce the influence of immigrants and minority religious groups is okay.
I’ve never really understood why this wasn’t ditched 60 years ago. Shit rule written into our Constitution n in 1934.
Last state with such a rule. Never made sense. This case actually related to a Louisiana case but they had already changed their law.
Would love to hear from the downvote? Who favors sending people to prison with a 10-2 jury? And why?
Kavanagh and Gorsuch voted for it so it must be bad right?
Why?
Oh, you must assume I hate all conservatives since I hate Trump?
Gotcha….
I miss Scalia being the swing Vite with the liberal block on 4th amendment cases… Those were the days.
Trumps a socialist, don’t forget that. And its interesting you don’t toe the liberal line with Kavanagh and Gorsuch hate, since we were guaranteed a reversal of roe vs wade and gay marriage and various other liberal opinions. Yet they have shown thats not the case, and in fact the liberal sky isn’t falling.
For the record good call by SCOTUS.
Actually it was Trump that said roe vs. Wade would be overturned. I distinctly remember him describing a crying baby torn from a womb and killed. Then he was asked if roe vs. Wade should be overturned and he said it would be rather matter of factly.
When have they shown “that is not the case?”
Care to link me too said case they took and made such a decision with regards too Roe v Wade, gay marriage, or other liberal precedents?
And they have overturned important precedents (union rights for one) already so make no mistake this court is a nightmare. And Roe v Wade and many civil/worker rights will go away over the next few years.
Cases take time to work their way to SCOTUS, give them time.
But they got this one right.
Union rights? You mean they allow people to opt out of dues for government unions. Good, some people don’t like their due payments siphoned into democrats coffers.
And I’m a union worker.
Because republicans are notoriously anti-union
Neat: You support free loading scabs. Good to know.
True conservative values, benefit from what others pay for. And despite that bullshit rightwing talking point, no money goes to political activities without express permission from the employee. It is a lie to claim otherwise.
I am sure they won’t come for your union protections next, not like the GOP doesn’t support “right to work’ legislation nationally….Doubt they’ll find a case to get that implemented from the bench….
You are a Trump guy for sure.
Even government employees need union support. Just look at what Portland is doing to their non-union employees right now.
https://www.kgw.com/article/money/business/portland-announces-city-employee-furloughs-raise-freezes-amid-coronavirus-pandemic/283-58e00a7d-6214-4b1f-9927-5ef6340c5f86
But I am sure you think all those employees are worthless and overpaid anyway so whatever….
Doesn’t change the FACT that they overruled a long standing precedent. And many more are coming. Including Roe v Wade.
Oil contracts at 1 penny per barrel?
WTF?
https://twitter.com/i/status/1252296536308015107
It is negative now.
GREAT
Does that mean they pay us for taking the oil off their hands?
You have to pay to transport and store it, so there are still costs involved.
Natural gas was negative in west Texas for a while until Trump loosened flaring laws.
Looking at this more, the June contracts are positive, probably because no delivery needed yet. Today was expiration/delivery, and nobody wants any. Explains the price…wow. First time ever negative contract price.
A lot of firsts in market history lately…End the FED.
deflation, big time.
Keep seeing puff pieces about how Herbert is the “safest qb in the draft”.
Smh… think he’s gonna end up being huge bust.
Cue fanno boy…
Herbert is gonna be a massive bust. I just don’t see it at all when I watch him play.
Mariota? I got it, Herbert? Nope.
Weird, I thought Mariota was the more clear bust.
Herbert looks like a better prospect than Mariota to me. But he still doesn’t look like a legit NFL guy. Luton will be awful, imo. He melted under college pressure I can’t imagine how bad he’ll wilt.
There’s not much pressure when you’re holding a clipboard.
He’s tall, he has big hands, he has an obscure metric in his favor, he’s viewed favorably as a vocal leader. Luton’s backup QB qualifications are off the charts.
Will they give Luton extra points for running to the sideline? Brokenback Luton will never throw a meaningful pass in the NFL and pre-season doesn’t count
Two words: reading comprehension
Beavs trying to talk sports. Hysterical. Stick with politics, sheep and micro beers. You’re in way over your heads. I’m still laughing at the moron who said Sabrina’s skills won’t translate to the WNBA.
Edit your post one more time why don’t you.
actually, Young, one could argue Mariota is a bust too, at least at the pro level.
Sitting back and collecting checks. 4 OC’s in 4 years. No blocking. You mad bro?
Here’s the excuses. New ocs because their o sux because bad qb play.
Every year some player gets blown out of proportion, and the narrative seems to become self-reinforcing. I like that he was local, stuck to his commitment w/no hype, and is humble. But I did not think “Round 1 NFL QB,” when I saw him play. I just don’t get it. I don’t wish him misfortune, but I’ll be very surprised if he becomes a NFL franchise QB.
Local? If the middle of the Pacific is local.
He’s not talking about Mariota genius. You don’t read too well.
My prediction: at the end of the day, Luton will be a better draft value than Herbert. I think both will end up as backups, but Herbert will get paid 5x what Jake does.
Beav fans thinking they are qualified to talk about football. Hysterical. Why do you guys even bother. Every year its the same thing…..bold predictions for your teams and then they flame out. Between you and Nick the dick Daschl I don’t know who’s funnier. I remember several beav fans claiming Mannion was better than Mariota and Nall was better than Freeman. Neither one have made it off the bench yet. When you regularly have to battle Fresno State and Hawaii for recruits, what do you expect?
Remember when the entire Duck fan base said LaMichael James would be a better pro than Quizz, that was a good debate.
He does make a killer burger though
Quizz who? Never beat the Ducks. Who’s taller? Whizzer or Rueck? Who cares about pro anyway? These are college sports not pro. James was a far better college player.
Even your smack talk is nonsensical. You claim you don’t know who he is then ask if he is taller than the basketball coach. I think Rueck is about an inch taller though. Quizz is 5’3″ at most.
Quizz is 5’6
that’s it. you don’t matter until you’ve beaten the Ducks. now there’s a metric to live by.
Quizz is 5’6″ in cleats with orthotics maybe… Maybe
Dude he is not 5’3. Did you ever meet him? He’s taller than champ he is maybe even 5’7.
Playing 8+ years in the NFL, is better than any colagiate accolade. No veteran NFL guy cares about college, it’s a stepping stone to the next level.
Why would a pro team waste their time and money on a career backup that bailed on his college in their annual Super Bowl with a forearm bruise? He was terrified of Kayvon and left the other below average QB hanging out to dry. Unbelievable
You’re pretty pathetic but I’ll give you credit for hanging in where you’re not wanted. Is there anywhere you are wanted?
What’s pathetic is that you clowns spend more time talking about Sabrina and Herbert than you do your own players. I have never seen such an obsession. Have you ever even been to Reser? Were you one of the average 25K last year? No wonder your teams suck. The fan base is more concerned with the team 40 miles South and always have been. Instead of talking about Pivec getting drafted (albeit, 3rd round and likely won’t make a roster) you chose to rant on and on about Sabrina. What a devoted fan base
“The fan base is more concerned with the team 40 miles South”
…he says with no sense of irony while visiting a Beaver sports blog for the 14th day in a row.
(Actually, I didnt count the days. Could be only 13)
What’s pathetic is you edit each comment 10x sending buckets of emails to my inbox, and each time you add more nonsense to the comment.
Maybe think of the 20 points you want to make in each comment before you hit submit.
Says Sabrina’s butt-licker…whats his name again…oh, yeah faggo!
Almost won at Autzen last year… I’m sure you’re butt hole was puckered, until Jefferson fumbled. Don’t lie lol!
This is why I don’t do business with the large banks….I quit Wells Fargo about 9 years ago.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/04/20/small-businesses-sue-chase-bank-over-handling-stimulus/5163654002/
….they are shady and major part of the equation for the sub-prime debacle.
were credit unions precluded from being the pass through for business relief?
In general, no o dont think so. But they likely had to have a sba relationship already.
Good for you. I closed one of two accounts at Chase last month. Going to try to get off it entirely soon. Starve the beast.
As I have now commented several times, we were fucked over by Chase on this. We will be switching from chase to a local community bank, umpqua or citizens, as soon as this current mess calms some.
We had a customer who was managing a citizen’s branch and I was reluctant to switch due to the hassle required, man I had no idea what I was passing up.
If this thing has shown me anything it’s chase could give zero shits about my business, I should have switched then.
Chase keeps sending my wife the $600 cash special for opening checking and savings. With a bunch of strings attached of course – minimum deposit of 10K and kept there for 6 months….or something along those lines.
Makes you wonder where that free money is coming from….it’s clear to me that bank has no interest in being a good steward of my money.
we like Umpqua. cut remaining ties to Wells Fargo yesterday.
I’m a big believer in buying local. But when we moved to Oregon we started our business with Washington Mutual. We had no experience or frame of reference with the local community banks. Wife had worked for Wells and that was definitely a no go. When Wamu went belly up they were bought by Chase.
Knowing somewhat the inner workings at Wells, then the deal with Wamu, now Chase, I’ll burn my money before putting it back into a big bank.
The comings and goings from our business account make untangling from chase somewhat problematic, but I’ll sleep better.
Funny meme going around.
https://i.imgur.com/ZL1PVWR.jpg
Good one, lotta truth there.
Obviously, the key is corrupt, and it’s worth noting that some of those corrupt billionaires running the government didn’t start that way. Oh, they were probably always corrupt, but the billionaire thing occurred after they entered government!
Repeat….some
As to the question of whether this outbreak will bring about a baby boom, this from today’s WSJ:
“Experts now say that probably won’t happen. Research has shown that baby booms sometimes follow low-severity stressful events that end quickly–like the threat of a tropical storm–because people respond emotionally. But when the trauma is intense and remains high over time–such as after Sept. 11–there’s typically no baby boom. People are too anxious to think much about sex. And they question the wisdom of bringing a baby into the world.”
Analysis: This idea was first popularized after the Great Blackout in the northeast back in 1965. That situation fits the definition provided by the journal–a transitory event. One of the reasons high education was in a recession even before the outbreak is the “birth dearth” after 9/11. This will create another one, even presuming higher ed as we know it lasts another 20 years for the demography to matter.
Well here we go,
South Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee are opening up business with social distancing measures. This is a literal roll of the dice by these governors. I’m sure many other states will follow soon. My brain says this is obviously not the smart move. But I do hope it works out, I want sports back! and a normal life again
Hey if we have to throw a canary in the coal mine, may as well start with those folks
harsh.
and I laughed
Trump states?
When a vaccine is available for covid 19, will antivaxers take a dose?
It’s the one thing far left and far right groups will have most in common. Avoiding the vaccine
equal opportunity science deniers.
I saw a meme the other day that said its done but they can’t release it until they figure out how to get autism in it.
Haha
Qanon crowd thinks the vaccine will give Bill Gates the ability to turn you on and off (at least that appears to be their belief).
It’s like sci-fi thought up by retards.
We’re plummeting closer and closer to Idiocracy, such a theory would have fit right in to that story line.
Oh yeah. Bill Mitchell is a huge Trump homer on twitter, greatest tweet of all time today.
https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/1252453257080909824
It is really difficult to not consider someone that doesn’t understand how averages work incredibly stupid. They make it too easy.
Maybe they’ve been watching too much Westworld? Lol
I watched the first 2 seasons, haven’t gotten back into it. Is it worth the time commitment?
@ Alpha….”Almost won”. The long standing story of beaver sports. Moral victory U
Just saying the gap isn’t as big as you hope it is. Let’s talk after the civil war this year.
A beavo civil war win will get one of the following excuses:
1) ‘the beavs won their superbowl, ducks don’t care about this game’
2) ‘ what’s the win-loss record for the civil war for the last (cherry picked number) years’
3) ‘at least the ducks have more 5 star players’
4) ‘beavs only won because player x was injured’
5) ‘but our uniforms were better’
6) ‘it was raining’
Feel free to mix and match.
@ CJ….Classy. I’m guessing you’re about 15 years old sporting a 3 incher. Poor kid
I see where Tinkle is really lighting it up with the JC transfers that averaged 6i-12 points a game. Those guys will just be killing it in the Pac-12. The 6’5″ guard looks to be pretty talented but the rest of his JCers look to awfully mediocre. It should be a fun season for MBB. Yikes!
Gee, speculating about the dick size of a hypothetical 15 year old boy isn’t weird at all…
That would Heimlich not me
Interesting that you’re so fixated on that case, yet turn a blind eye to multiple ducks gang raping someone and your school literally covering it up.
flap on little flappo
Go ahead and prove that. I dare ya. Do you know how to read a police report? Apparently not. No charges ever filed because the girl lied about it. Even her friends couldn’t corroborate her story. You should wake up. You must be talking about the Brenda Tracy case and your beav football players.
You’re not a critical thinker, that’s ok. That UO degree suits you well. I actually suspect you’re more the bought your degree in the form of ducks wear while shopping at Walmart. Either way, best of luck, flappo.
Dr. Fauci was saying last week, that he could envision a scenario where a live game could be played, with no fans, and all players and support
staff would have to be tested to assure nobody would be a carrier. I would think that by then testing integrity will have improved greatly.
MLB could probably start by mid-May in Zona and Florida but the deal the owners cut with the MLBPA anticipated a start up with fans in the stands. Players don’t want to take another haircut.
New talk has them using Florida, Arizona, and Texas. No idea how the teams would be aligned but that is the new rumor.
OT: Checking out “The Greatest Events of WWII in Colour” on Netflix…lots of valuable lessons to be learned about nationalism, arrogance, poor communication.
seems like this scenario where fans may not be in the stands for NCAA football season (if it occurs) is the perfect place for that OSU grad (part owner of milwaukee bucks) to chime in, and offer a unique viewing experience with his tech company?
They should study collegiate rowing. Experts at having sporting events with no fans.
Who got hot beaver insight into the recent hoops commits? (or is that higher up the screen?)
Ask fanno. He follows OSU hoops more closely than anybody on this page
Here’s the short answer….. A bunch of below average grad transfers that probably should be playing for UC Irvine instead. That is TInkle’s MO. He doesn’t know how to recruit. That should be obvious by now shouldn’t it.
Got to agree with you in this case. Though I more attribute it to a blind squirrel finding a nut.
20 years of coaching HS ball says its more than that. But go ahead and lash out if it helps you
Bleed orange…. you aren’t on my team. Pretty simple
Nice beaver…. that’s the second time you have mentioned 15 year old peckers. Sounds like you have a twisted problem. Is quitoriano your roommate? Was it you he tried to hide the remote in?
So your a high basketball coach of 20 years and you come onto an Oregon state blog and talk shit. You sound like an excellent role model for young men in athletics.
Don’t forget the fascination with 15 y/o peckers.
Flappo the ‘coach’ always in the locker room after practice, gotta check on the lads and make sure they’re not skipping showers. So concerned about hygiene.
Back to the topic of the thread.
House turned 97 y/o so lots of stuff to do.
Repaired cracks in plaster and painted a bathroom.
Drank bourbon
Tightened all the old hardware on doors and windows
Drank rye
Worked on old car to start restoring it.
Drank rum
any projects with your rig?
Eventually, the macerator crapped out. So it can’t get the crap out. How ironic.
Old car?……..c’mon, tell us more. You a Studebaker, Packard kind of guy?
I’m guessing a Hudson
Or even an Edsel?
Original Yugo….
Original Pinto (complete with exploding gas tank) wasn’t available?
Too uppity!
1988 e30 BMW. “God’s Chariot” as they are known. MN road salt is not kind to automobiles.
You happen to be the furthest from critical thinker as it gets. I didn’t figure you would be able to link any proof to your ridiculous claims. Good job little buddy. Try harder next time
Goodnight Sabrina!
Remodeled the kitchen over the last couple months. Only thing left is under-cabinet lighting. When pandemic hit the food cupboard were bare. Live in Orange County Ca so getting food was a challenge at that time. We eventually got into Trader Joes and spent $300 in one trip. Having the breaker panel replaced as I type (hired electrician and got permits even in this pandemic). Family room paint job is next. I’ll be poor by the end of COVID-19 but the house will be good to go.
I miss sports, but my wife isn’t… she is basically getting a new house out of the deal.
And by the way, I’m still working everyday. Essential service, non-profit children mental health providing services to Los Angeles County. We are able to just keep our nose above water so I feel like one of the lucky ones.
Where in OC?
Cypress.. as North as you can be in the OC.
Good buddy lived in Aliso Viejo for 20+ years. Just moved to Dallas in August. I’ve been to Yorba Linda several times for classes.
Nice weather but the traffic sucks.
Those $1200 checks should help the Mrs come up with more chores.
Lol. Nobody believes you’re married. Sad
Kate Brown with a plan to reopen Oregon.
https://www.gazettetimes.com/news/local/brown-begins-to-map-out-plans-to-reopen-the-state/article_535b71d0-65ee-5224-af11-4c547b38fa90.html#tracking-source=home-trending
“By the week of May 4, Gov. Kate Brown could have a firm plan for reopening parts of Oregon’s economy, probably starting with rural counties.”
Oregon ranks in the bottom third of cases, deaths, deaths per capita and cases per capita. Much better stats than the states that are re opening.
Only thing holding the state back is testing capacity. Oregon is below average in testing per capita.
It does seem realistic that Oregon could reopen May 4th. Especially in southern and eastern Oregon but restrict travel to those areas. Keep the coast closed to keep crowds away.
This new Covid19 Sim game looks freaking sweet.
https://twitter.com/kyledunnigan/status/1252655821961351168?s=09
Lol, why is explosive diarrhea so funny?
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-swedish-experiment-looks-like-it-s-paying-off
Well when you have National Healthcare and 10 million people in the entire Country, it’s pretty easy to do that. We have almost as many people in NYC as they do in their entire Country, and we have expensive healthcare, so people don’t want to risk it knowing they might have to foot a huge bill.
Just another example of how stats and narratives are useless.
So much for looking at the science and actual data. It’s a lot more fun to put on tin foil hats and trade shiny rocks.
?
Explain how a Country with 10 million people total and national healthcare at all compares to the US situation.
A perfect example is compare Sweden to Michigan. Similar populations (approx 10 million). Michigan with the most stringent lock down rules vs Sweden’s more liberal approach.
Let’s review the data:
Sweden’s largest city Stockholm has 13K per sq mile Detroit has 4800 per sq mile.
Michigan has 33K cases (.3%) of population
Sweden has 15K cases (.15%) of population
Total tests Michigan 120K
Total tests Sweden 100K
Michigan has 2700 deaths
Sweden has 1800 deaths
Even if you extrapolate the testing to the Michigan level Sweden has less infections and most importantly less deaths. Follow the data.
That’s not a perfect example at all.
In fact, it’s terrible.
Of course you don’t provide any hard evidence as to why it’s a horrible comparison. Shocking. Keep moving those shiny rocks around in a circular motion and hopefully you can contact life on another plant with your cool hat.
Also the median age in Sweden is 41. In Michigan it’s 39. Still horrible data I know.
Comparing a country to a state is pretty silly at best. Compare countries to other countries.
>When the coronavirus swept into the Scandinavian countries, Norway and Denmark scrambled to place extensive restrictions on their borders to stem the outbreak. Sweden, their neighbor, took a decidedly different path.
Okay. Norway plus Denmark is 11.1 million people. Sweden is 10.1 million. Close enough.
Death rates per 1M people, as of 3 days ago.
Norway – 30
Denmark – 58
Sweden – 136
Total deaths…
Denmark plus Norway – 504
Sweden – 1400
Hell, toss in Finland for another 5.5 million people and you only get to 586 deaths for 16 million people.
#Swedefail.
Also this:
>Now that COVID-19 is running rampant through nursing homes and other communities, the Swedish government has had to backpedal. Others who may be tempted by the “Swedish model” should understand that a defining feature of it is a higher death toll.
So, even Sweden admits they screwed the pooch on this thing. Why are Americans defending another country’s bad decisions?
There are about 30 glaring reasons Sweden is not Michigan. I don’t have time to point them out to you, but think…think hard.
Regarding moving rocks around, I don’t move rocks around, but it’s funny you appeal to authority with some bogus article, and yet you don’t appeal to authority with Central Banks and the Rich buying the most gold in world history right now. It’s very clear you have an agenda. I just buy gold because dollars suck ass. No agenda. When gold sucks and dollars are good to own, I’ll sell gold.
Thanks, Cake didn’t feel like doing all that very busy today. They also have NHC, which gives them the luxury to go out and try that experiment. There are like 20 other differences it’s like comparing an apples to cauliflower.
Regarding why he’s doing it, clearly because he wants to open the economy. So he’s supporting arguments, as bad as they may be, that echo that sentiment. Funny that yesterday there was a viral video on FB from a Swedish doctor bashing Fauci. Now everyone is posting how successful Sweden is…lol. I thought that was funny since he called me tin foil. But anyway, that article on Sweden is just another example of how stats lie.
So damn funny. Cake’s states are actually not accurate and Angry loves to say “stats lie”. Angry goes by “gut” and emotion (sounds a lot like Trump actually). Angry also says he can think of “30 glaring reasons why Sweden is not Michigan” of course that’s a false narrative but never let hard data get in the way of emotion.
Funny you don’t bother to look at deaths at other European countries that have authoritarian lockdowns (Italy, Spain, UK, France, etc). Those death rates at 2X 3X those of Sweden.
Looks like it’s time for Jim Jones to bring over another round of kool-aid.
>Looks like it’s time for Jim Jones to bring over another round of kool-aid.
If he did, I’m sure you’d drink it.
Kinda busy today, so I didn’t want to have to re-run the numbers, but here’s the updated numbers as of today.
Sweden: 10.1M people, 15,322 cases, 1,765 dead.
Norway: 5.5M people, 7,191 cases, 182 dead.
Denmark: 5.8M people, 7,695 cases, 370 dead.
Finland: 5.5M people, 4,014 cases, 141 dead.
And look at the testing numbers.
Sweden has tested 9,357 people per million.
Norway, 26,798. Denmark, 17,358. Finland, 11,154.
Do you really think these things are the same?
As for Spain, France and Italy, those countries that do ‘la bise’ greetings seem to have been affected more. Swedes, like all the Scandinavian countries, are fairly anti-social by nature, which is probably why Scandinavia as a whole is better off than continental countries. The UK is bad because Boris Johnson refused to lock things down early enough.
So Norway, Denmark, Finland have death rates of 2-3.5%, and Sweden has a whopping 11.5% death rate, and there are (fake news) articles portraying them as the poster-child for how to handle the virus, and Trump thumpers who have the most tremendous “fake news” radar think this is real news and a fine comparison to…Michigan. You can’t make it up, and this is just great.
heresy!
Sweden reports 545 new cases of the coronavirus, and 185 new deaths, for a total of 15,322 cases and 1,765 deaths, as cases continue to accelerate in the Scandinavian country which opted to skip lockdowns and never really shuttered its economy, or its borders.
Poor Michigan. That article aged like milk.
Cultural comparison makes more sense than population or even area/capita. The only countries similar to Sweden are Denmark and Norway. Sweden is doing much worse than those and the difference is mitigation. Spectator spent the last 4 years demonizing Sweden and parroting the criminal wasteland narrative so maybe not a great source.
On the sports front: might this be the moment when the higher ed/sports industrial complex gets a fundamental restructuring? That is, the relative few sports teams that attract fans (football, basketball, baseball) continue with the scholarship/pay for play model, while the others (soccer, crew, gymnastics, wrestling, track, cross country, swimming, and the like), transition to a pure amateur status–no scholarships, no full time high paid coaches, etc. You could cut the athletic department overhead by 1/3 to 1/2–all that compliance related cost is out the window.
I think that would have serious Title IX implications
Oh and college baseball doesn’t really generate much revenue either so that’d be cut most places too.
Title IX would definitely be a challenge, but isn’t football already exempted from that? I mean, all the other sports have approximate parity: baseball/softball; women’s hoops/men’s; ditto soccer, golf and maybe others. Title IX is a great law and it would have to be maintained but I think there’s already a workaround for football, what with its 70 scholarships.
I have the sense, that baseball is increasingly lucrative for college athletic programs. I mean, look at the size of some of the stadiums now.
Football exempted from Title IX?
It’s the reason we have more distinct women’s programs than men’s(gymnastics, volleyball, t&f)
Perhaps this gets football exempted, which is the rational thing to do. It pays the bills. There are just a handful of baseball programs that actually make money. Beavs are not one of them.
let me rephrase that: are there, or are there not, more male athletes on scholarship than female athletes? We both the know the answer, generally, maybe you do specifically. that is what I mean by the football exception to title ix
Are scholarships that high of a percentage of the operating costs? Seems like travel and equipment would be a lot of it.
Scholarships are the majority of costs in athletic departments.
They cover tuition, room/board, books, etc. I believe now they cover training table three times a day.
And all the out of state athlete scholarships are priced at out of state tuition rates. So that increases the costs significantly.
That seems like a real soft cost though. I mean an in state or out of state scholarship won’t change how much it costs the university.
The university gets the tuition money from the athletic department. So it does charge the cost to the athletic department. Different piles of money. Same cost to the university, but more expensive to the athletic dept.
That makes sense, thanks for the explanation.
BG or someone else who may know, isn’t it also treated differently at different universities, i.e. some universities in fact don’t charge their AD’s for student-athlete tuitions, which in turn gives the appearance that some athletic departments are in the black versus red. It’s why I always take it with a grain of salt when people point out that OSU’s AD always operates at a deficit whereas other school’s don’t. It sure helps when some AD’s don’t have to account for tuition as a real expense.
At least that has been my understanding of the “tuition waiver” thing, but maybe I’m offbase.
“operate at a deficit” meaning rely on the university for support/subsidy.
https://apnews.com/a5077c7227b8eb8b0dc23423c0bbe2b2
Kind of a bummer but not overly surprised. I imagine the TV talking heads and doctors won’t apologize.
Just when you think Trump has failed at everything possible, he manages to get his imaginary medical license revoked.
No one has reviewed that study, so its just as good as that kooky doctor from New York say it cured 100% of his patients. The new York study that is on going involves 6000 patients.
This kooky doctor?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/technology/doctor-zelenko-coronavirus-drugs.html
I think that’s him, but I can’t read the article.
Edit: actually I don’t think thats the guy I’m thinking of. The doctor I’m talking about works in a predominantly Jewish area in New York. I can’t remember where but the town council asked him not to post info about curing covid19, basically a cease and desist order of some sort. He seemed way younger then the picture in that article. Possibly 2 nut job doctors in New york?
This is funny. Like most jokes because it’s half (or more in this case) true.
https://i.imgur.com/VAmS8ty.jpg
I’ve become more certain that all conservative means today is to be against whatever Democrats/liberals/mainstream media says…
It’s the only thing that makes sense to me at this point.
You have it backward! Just like a democrat…
I hate it when i put my clothes on backwards.
And pro stimulus checks.
The party of fiscal responsibility!
Racism and fear of whites becoming a minority underlies much of Republicanism.
Maybe.
But we have powers that want authoritarian government, and a Federal Reserve that wants serfdom. I can’t worry about being white or calling a guy who cut his wiener off a tranny. I’d gladly fight those evil forces with racists and SJWs. Unfortunately, nobody recognizes the real enemy, and I have little hope they will before time runs out.
Might be the whiskey coarsing through me but that big time reminded me of this classic South Park. Can we just make it official and bundle the shitty feds and authoritarian oligarchs into the title crab people?
https://youtu.be/ykWPyaqbebo
Lol.
I think they’re referred to as TPTB (the powers that be), which looks a lot like TPB (those poor bastards).
Wish people would wake the fuck up as to what’s actually going on, on a more serious note.
Reminds me of the old Pogo comic strip “we have met the enemy and he is us”
CJ, yep.
Yo angry, I am wasted, I’m curious what people can even do? On a practical level I’m not really sure what joey schmoy could do to counter these forces except vote. It’s a whole lot of unchecked leverage (making debt with bonds, I’m hilarious) that I’m not sure the people could do much about even if they were fed woke.
They could stop arguing with citizens and start writing elected officials, for one. Better use of time. They could also stop viewing citizens who vote the opposite side as the enemy, and focusing that rage on the actual forces creating the underlying problems. Those would be good starts.
Wasted on a Tuesday night? Who is this guy, James Bond?
Oh good answer. I’m a firm believer that most political divide is by design as a distraction.
End of my med cycle and just don’t want to feel the pain tonight. Plus the only person that can fire me is me so it’s a good position for mid week dranks. I’ll review my case in the morning but I suspect experienced and frequent hydration will yield a ruling in my favor.
I have a feeling the structure you designed tonight is going to collapse moments after erection.
(That’s what she said)
Pssshhhh shame on you. I do not design, engineer or erect on booze. I’m mentally incapable of such a feat.
I’m a firm believer that most political divide is by design as a distraction.
It is. The propaganda is getting sophisticated, too. I recommend giving Operation Infecktion a watch on YouTube. An indie documentary made a few years ago, and I think the NYT’s backed it (I know, “fake news”)…ironically it’s about fake news/propaganda, and interesting.
I think there’s a shit load of people that claim conservative that are really just not. BlackBandits would be the person to consult on that.
True conservatives don’t really give a shit aslong as fiscal responsibility and small central government is on the fore front. Republicanism is much more an idealogy and morality stance.
Been that way for a long time. Protect that fetus but don’t let that door hit you on the way out, son.
It’s like the show captain planet but they got rid of earth, wind, fire (how dare they ditch such a great group), water and heart and just went with whatever gives evangelicals an evil to fund raise over.
Boooo weird ideological arguments that can’t pass sniff tests or cartoon and mega group references.
since we seem to be edging closer to the political norm in this thread, let me try this analogue to the “we had to destroy the village in order to save it.”
we cannot commit suicide out of fear of dying–Peggy Noonan.
Nuke, have you seen any info on children with positive covid19 tests? Or any numbers that involve children really as im not sure there getting tested period.
Just demographic type reporting from various countries. Piecing together what I have read it just doesn’t hit kids hard at all. Most positive cases are people with severe symptoms so kids just don’t get tested much.
Thats pretty much what I figured. Thanks.
@BB – had a drunken minute to look things up. Here are some links/papers and such. I have not really read these as it’s a pain night and I’m riding the whiskey train. Generally sources I like. Peace bruh
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6914e4.htm
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7102573/
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ppul.24718
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1473309920301985
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6484/1287.full
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/apa.15270
Wow, thanks man. Just what i was looking for. Enjoy the booze.
Kee Whetzel to West Florida
Another “high profile” Anderpants project headed to D2.
He always looked like he should’ve stayed at wr. Was a terrible tackler.
Do you think Ander is happy we replaced son with pants? I bet it’s nice to stop claiming such a disappointing progeny.
“KNOWLEDGE BREAKS “is the title of a new series of webcasts put on by OSU. Apparently free of charge.
For angry, there is a session on gardening.
For Nuke, one on vitamin C,
Wannabeav can refresh his memories of the 1918-19 pandemic in another,
Several here may find useful the one on coping strategies, taught by Regan Gurung,
For BG one on the science of rust removal,
Alas, nothing on fingerstyle guitar and………ooops, misread that rust removal item!
Registration required, here’s the straight scoop:
https://www.osufoundation.org/s/359/foundation/index.aspx?sid=359&gid=34&pgid=8701&utm_term=EXPLORE THE SERIES&utm_campaign=Take a Knowledge Break with Oregon State University&utm_content=email&utm_source=Act-On Software&utm_medium=email&cm_mmc=Act-On Software-_-email-_-Take a Knowledge Break with Oregon State University-_-EXPLORE THE SERIES
Thanks OOB, I do love education resources!
funny you say that OOBie, because there’s solid oral history of the 1918 Pandemic in our family. My father’s mother died of it. She was 28 at the time, mother of four; my dad was 7. It was a pretty vivid memory for him. She got sick one night and was dead the next morning.
Smithfield Farms – the name sounds so cozy – common last name – I assume we all know someone last-named Smith, field, farm. Idyllic. It’s a Chinese company – online searches reveal worker, animal, environmental abuses. If you buy pig meat you might want to see if you can find smaller, local producers since it’s hard to avoid Smithfield Farms in the super market. https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/2020/04/16/smithfield-foods-coronavirus-sioux-falls-cdc-assess-plan-reopen/5144291002/
Note, thanks, and banned.
Yes, it looks like they were bought by China in 2013. Wasn’t it shortly after that we started shipping chickens to china for processing? Not good…
More selling out of America.
Not many pit smokers here are there? This was big news when it happened in some of the meat smoking forums I’m on. I’ll try to find the info, but Smithfield used to pack hams for a few private labels from grocery stores.
I have one. Gets a workout during tailgating season.
Here’s a list of smithfield brands…..from their own website. FYI, there are more brands listed down the page under “Thats Not All”.
https://www.smithfieldfoods.com/trusted-brands
banned here too.
Anyone else growing a pandemic beard? I seem to have let mine go. Several customers, same thing.
It’s proven that during high unemployment beards go up.
Well salons are closed and there’s no sports so….no sports clips to make me look swag. Beard on brother.
I’ve been cutting my own hair for five years. I’ve estimated I’ve saved about 2k. If I live to be an average age, that will be 15k to 20k, extrapolated.
Inflation adjusted that’s going to be a lot higher.
I do the same for the last decade. I’ve got a $50 set of Wahl clippers that I bought in college. I think I’ll break down and start paying soon, I have the same hand functionality as a trout.
People ask how to beat inflation besides gold coins…there you go. $50 turned into what 3 or 4k? I’d say you hedged haircuts very well.
Ive been cutting mine since I was 15 or 16yo. High and tight. I grew it out once but unfortunately I did not look like Brad Pitt. Or maybe I did, but just a fat version.
My hair is the longest since I went into the Navy in 1988. I feel like a hippie.
no, but I’m only shaving once a week now rather than 2-3 times.
First covid19 death was 3 weeks earlier than thought in US.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/22/santa-clara-county-may-have-had-earliest-us-deaths-from-coronavirus/
Saw that. Makes sense with no testing available.
Had been wondering about the ESPN football analyst who died of a sudden mysterious illness in December.
He tweeted in the week leading up to his death something about an aggressive pneumonia that was attacking him and it was no joke how quickly it progressed and got worse. Then a few days later he’s pronounced dead. I think his wife said it was some underlying health condition(lymphoma?)
I’d have to dig up the story.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/media/2020/01/16/late-espn-reporter-ed-aschoff-stage-4-non-hodgkins-lymphoma/4488129002/
Will you (guys) I use the term loosely, be talking more about hair, yeast and other manly issues today? No sports? This is a sad version of the View. Lmao. When your teams suck, I guess you talk about yeast to sound more manly? Incredible
Yet here you are..
Just to laugh at your sorry ass