30.Nov.2009 Analysis: Beaver Passing vs Duck Defense

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The #24 passing attack faces the #29 pass defense. What gives?

Well, unfortunately, I think the Beavers lose this match-up as well. Yes, they will get yards, but the Ducks excel in two key areas: turnovers gained (24 total) and red zone defense (18th nationally). Additionally, Oregon ranks 18th in holding opposing QBs to the lowest passer efficiency. The Ducks also trump the Beavers in sacks with 30, and tackles for a loss with 69. People say I am too critical of the Beaver’s walk-on offensive linemen. Well, we’ll see how they hold up Thursday night.

Back to the analysis:

So for all the talk of the Beavers passing game keeping them in this thing, I think the opposite is true. They’ll have to run for about 200 yards to win this game because with the pass will come turnovers and (settling for) FGs against the Ducks. And this is not something solely backed up by stats; watch the Ducks play, it’s a “bend but don’t break” style with key turnovers at critical junctures.

What this Angrybeaver sees is OSU racking up a good yardage total, but the Ducks getting takeaways at crucial moments. Sean Canfield seems nervous in pre-game interviews. This, too, is foreboding. Sean has never played in Autzen, despite being a 5th year senior. Nor has Sean ever played in a game this big in his life. He seems more flappable than the cocky Masoli.

The bottom line is that the Ducks have a better defense than the Beavers. A statement backed up by practically every defensive state, but also backed up by the eye test. We know the Ducks have a better offense. So what edge does that leave for the Beavers?

Well, special teams, for one. I do think the Beavers kick coverage is better than the Ducks, so I could see James Rodgers doing something on returns. Conversely, while Barner is a great returner, I think he’ll be bottled up for the most part (maybe expect a return or two to the 38 yard line, but I don’t see the Beavers giving up a big return). The Beavers need to get their punt return game going this game. That will be huge. If Kavanaugh is back there fair-catching or getting 5 yards a return we’re in trouble. But you don’t know what you’re getting from that facet; punt returns have been erratic all season. Kahut is what he is…makes your heart race, but the great think about him is he doesn’t seem to let misses disrupt him at all. Maybe more so than any Beaver kicker in history. The downside of Kahut is short kickoffs. Again, the coverage team must help him here. Both punters are erratic and a wash. It would be nice to see Johnny Hekker throw a pass on a punt fake, as he was a QB in high school.

Now…on to the pick…

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  • OSBeavs says:
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    Take a look at Hekker warm-up sometime, he will usually throw it a few times to the back-up punter. He definitely has a pretty accurate bomb, just thought I would point that out.

  • Anonymous says:
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    Vote Quizz for Heisman:
    http://promo.espn.go.com/espn/contests/theheismanvote/2009/

    Quizz has a legit shot to be invited to NY for the Heisman if we beat the ducks. It will help if he pass Case Keenum in the fan vote in the next few days. You can vote everyday. From ESPN where Quizz is #4:

    4. Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State: Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy deserve consideration in these final two spots, but under the given criteria, I simply could not put either ahead of Rodgers or Ndamukong Suh. Much like Spiller, Rodgers is the most outstanding player on a surging Oregon State squad. It likely will take a monster showing in an upset victory over rival Oregon for Rodgers to get the invite to New York City. As of right now, 1,749 total yards of offense (1,313 yards on 239 carries and 436 yards on 67 receptions) and 20 touchdowns (19 rushing, one receiving) earn him a spot in the top five.

  • OS_Beaver says:
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    Vote Quizz for Heisman:
    http://promo.espn.go.com/espn/contests/theheismanvote/2009/

    Quizz has a legit shot to be invited to NY for the Heisman if we beat the ducks. It will help if he pass Case Keenum in the fan vote in the next few days. You can vote everyday. From ESPN where Quizz is #4:

    4. Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State: Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy deserve consideration in these final two spots, but under the given criteria, I simply could not put either ahead of Rodgers or Ndamukong Suh. Much like Spiller, Rodgers is the most outstanding player on a surging Oregon State squad. It likely will take a monster showing in an upset victory over rival Oregon for Rodgers to get the invite to New York City. As of right now, 1,749 total yards of offense (1,313 yards on 239 carries and 436 yards on 67 receptions) and 20 touchdowns (19 rushing, one receiving) earn him a spot in the top five.

  • angrybeaver says:
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    What is with the constant Quiz spam?

  • Paulscpa says:
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    Holy Cow angry are you an attorney by any chance. You definitely can present a point of view. If you are an attorney, then I need to know what your specialty is in case I need an advocate.

    As for this let me put on the “rose” color glasses. Sorry but I am not going to take the time for the statistics, but I know I am not exaggerating to make my point.

    Canfield is throwing the ball at a 70% clip with over 300 passes during the season. He has somewhere in the mid teens for touchdowns and what 6-7 interceptions for the season. One of those picks was against Cal in the red zone or at least at the pick was inside the five. The throw was underthrown and the db made a great pick. Not an awful pass but not as good as he can. I have been impressed by his growth this year and look forward to him making another step. You are right he has not played a game this big, but to win AT ASU, AT Cal and play extremely well at USC, plus the final drive versus UCLA after they came back to tie the game shows me he is not ready to fold.

    As for the UO red zone defense, why did you choose to omit the OSU red zone offensive numbers? Before the WSU game OSU was in the top 5 in the country in red zone production at around 95% success. Why do you feel comfortable in letting us know the UO red zone successes but leave out the OSU portion to battle against it?

    Now please remember, I am not predicting an OSU win. I happen to think the spread of 9.5 points is somewhat close. I have thought UO was the better team all around all year, and the game at Autzen only increases that concern. I just wanted to point out that we can compete in this game, that we are not outclassed on either side of the ball, and if we get a bounce or two we could shock the world.

    • angrybeaver says:
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      Hey Paul,

      No, I’m a biologist, but my brother is an attorney and we grew up liking to argue.

      Now on to your points:

      1. “One of those picks was against Cal in the red zone or at least at the pick was inside the five. The throw was underthrown and the db made a great pick. Not an awful pass but not as good as he can.”

      True, but remember when he underhanded the ball vs Arizona and it *should* have been a pick? That was in the red zone. I’m a Canfield supporter and have been all year, but be fair and realistic.

      2. “Why did you choose to omit the OSU red zone offensive numbers?”

      I didn’t. My first sentence is that OSU has the #24 passing attack and the Ducks have the #29 pass defense. Then posed the question, “what gives?” Within the framework of that question lies the redzone numbers, 3rd down numbers, etc. But to answer more honestly: I wanted to write something up on this matchup, but I also wanted to watch some Netflix, so I had to omit some things with the understanding that astute readers would get on my case for it.

      I encourage such behavior.

      And finally, touche, the Beavers have the #1 red zone offense. Why is this of little significance? Well, because the Ducks have the #3 redzone offense. The Beaver’s excellence is somewhat neutralized by that fact and the advantage so small that it’s not work focusing on.

      -angry

      • OSBeavs says:
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        Off topic: Angry, did you go to OSU? It seems that you live in southern california, where do you work as a biologist?

        • angrybeaver says:
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          1. Angry, did you go to OSU?

          yes.

          2. where do you work as a biologist?

          in santa barbara

          • OSBeavs says:
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            If it is not too personal what do you do more specifically and did you get a graduate degree? I am currently a pre-med at OSU in my final year (may or may not attend med school right away), just curious to see where other OSU alums ended up.

          • angrybeaver says:
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            You can email me at angrywordpress@gmail.com if you want to talk about anything like that.

  • JackBeav says:
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    Interesting numbers. Others to note are the very good success rates for OSU’s offense on third and fourth downs. The Ducks have given up 143 points in the last five games to OSU’s 106. In the last three games it’s been 113 points to OSU’s 45. If you’re going to argue that their schedule has been tougher, then I would say that we allowed less to the same five teams even with one happening before our annual turnaround… and our proclivity to give up major garbage time points.

    They are tired. They can barely stand. The bye will help them get healed, but it won’t save them from what they are… Boise State’s defense after a Pac 10 schedule. Their secondary was saved the eventual embarrassments they showed in the last three games because their front seven are aggressive and look to run around the o-line to the QB.

    Another Boise State analogy… remember our loss to them in 2004? It was pretty much like last year’s Civil War. At the end of the game Bill Swancutt was barely getting off the line because Ryan Clady had been pushing him around all night. That is what I see when I watch the Ducks defense.

    They play a safety sized DE, a LB sized DT, one DT at 290–his back-up sucks at 320–and a strong side DE at 270. Other than the three weights I just gave you, nobody on their defense tops 250. They play a safety at MLB, and I don’t mean they play a safety sized man at MLB. I mean literally that they play a safety there. About all I respect on that defense are Paysinger, Matthews and Rowe for the first .75 of the season. But all three are in the box or on the line most of the game. Watch a little tape on these guys, and you realize that they have major, major gaps underneath and up the seams. Quick slants, TE releases and RB circle routes underneath have all killed and will kill UO again. If USC’s back-up TE and/or RB’s could catch the football, the outcome of that UO game would have been very different.

    Add to that the total first quarter points since we gave up 17 in the last Civil War… 20 points in 12 games. UO can boast 54 points over the same stretch.

    UO can be easily beat over the top with an effective play action scheme. That would require that they key on the run. Regardless, a decent QB with a good receiving RB, a good possession receiver and a good TE can shred their defense in a systematic manner given that his offensive line is a decent run/pass blocking line.

  • FreddyBeav says:
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    UO is also starting show signs of arrogance by ending practice early because they think they’re already prepared enough for the game and players already proclaiming that they’re going to the Rose Bowl. I think OSU will go in to the game a lot more focused.

  • FreddyBeav says:
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    I did read something incorrectly the article actually doesn’t say specifically why they ended practice early. Walter Thurmond’s already saying they’re going to win and go to the Rose Bowl.

    http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindducksbeat/2009/11/civil_war_as_excitement_builds.html

  • paulscpa says:
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    Wish I felt better about this game. This last year has been awful with that score always being a reminder. Remember sitting there late in the game when we turned it over (again) realizing the comeback was not going to happen. Turned to my 10 year old and saw tears welling up in his eyes as he understood no Rose Bowl that year. Sucks when you are feeling bad, REALLY sucks when your kids feel the same or worse. Come on BEAVERS!!!

    • angrybeaver says:
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      What sucked most was seeing the Ducks celebrate like dainty Casanovas.

      • beavers4life says:
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        I was in Ohio going to school this last year and the year before that a school in Oklahoma. So I was unable to attend the past two seasons of home games because of it, but got to see a lot on t.v. except this last year because I had obligations every Thursday and Saturday during the games. So that really sucked, but not watching the game and getting trash talk from uck fans for a whole year really was starting to piss me off. I love how Lyle Moevao put on twitter, “Payback’s a B***h!!” That’s the attitude OSU players are most likely thinking at this point because “Kristick added that getting blown out by Oregon last year was tough, especially watching the guys who had played their final Civil Wars. “It was really hard to watch the seniors,” he said.”(Paul Buker)

        Buker quotes Mark Banker on how to stop LaMichael James, “We need to get as many players to the ball as we can,” Banker said. “The more players you can get to the ball (when James has it), the better chance you have.”

        • OSBeavs says:
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          Getting as many players to the ball as possible scares me. That is how most defenses try to defend the zone read, they pick a guy and go after him. We need to be balanced and attack both guys equally, assignment football is key. If I was going to prepare a practice against the spread I would have the scout O not use a ball. Each player has an assignment and they tackle the assignment regardless of the ball. This would hopefully encourage assignment football and not have players get caught up worrying about making a play on the ball.

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