25.May.2010 Baseball Briefing

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The Beavers head into the final weekend needing to win 3 of 4 to make the post season.

Key game: Wednesday versus Oregon. If the Beavs win, I think they take 2 of 3 from ‘zona and get it done. The Wildcats are clawing for their lives, too, so it won’t be easy.

The Oregon game will be “worth less” (to voters) since it’s technically not a conference game, but if they do drop it they’d have to take 3 straight. That is tough. Beating Oregon leaves room for error, and that means relaxed players and better baseball. Hence, it’s the pivotal game, and the Ducks want revenge. Beaver beware.

2-2…that’s playing with fire. It might be enough, but my guess is if the Beavs go 2-2 and it’s 2008 all over again, and they’re the 65th team.

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  • angrybeaver says:
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    And despite what people think, if the Beavs do make the tourney, they can do damage. Keep in mind they play in the strongest conference this year.

    • JackBeav says:
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      IF they make it, Casey needs to do something with Norris in right. He’s a good enough bat to play DH, but why? I think Jones, Hayes and Boyd fill the right side and DH threesome pretty well. But let’s get there first I guess. We might have to find out if Boyd can be more than a set-up man. I think he can start or close.

      The Ducks face a faltering Cal this weekend, so the best case is this:

      We win out, ASU wins out, and Cal takes two against the Ducks.

      Voila! A four-way tie for fourth… maybe five-way. Cal probably gains the higher RPI than us. Stanford drops like a rock, and we own the Ducks. Wazzu’s RPI sucks eggs for a third place Pac 10 team, and I’m not worried about UW or Arizona if we’re looking at the bubble.

      I’d rather just beat the Ducks on principle then handle Arizona like we meant to be in the postseason the whole time.

    • angrybeaver says:
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      I hope Boyd starts tonight. Then you could use him Saturday/Sunday in relief if needed.

  • angrybeaver says:
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    If the Beavs didn’t have bad luck they’d have no luck at all.

  • Tolmes says:
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    Beavs lookin good right now up two in the fifth

    • angrybeaver says:
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      On the mound Boyd looks good.
      Miller needs to take a seat on the bench permanently. Every time he’s in the game something goes terribly and fundamentally wrong.

  • Tolmes says:
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    Ya im watching it on the gametracker and I was pretty confused when I saw a groundball (to short I think) and the runner on second get out. Hard to tell how the game is really going from gametracker though.

    • beavers4life says:
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      I was at the game. That was a weird play, but what happened was this: Oregon has a guy on first and second. A ground ball is hit to short and the guy from second got into a pickle with the 3rd baseman and second. The ducks sent the guy from first all the way to second and when the guy from first and the guy who went back to second both stepped on the bag at the same time. Then the beavers third baseman i think stepped on the bag and caused the guy who was on first to be out.

      There were a lot of weird outs. Another was when a duck was on first and the ball was hit into right field and the ball was caught, but the ducks had sent the guy from first without sending him halfway. So the right fielder threw the ball back to first for the tag out. Then there was a close one off a bunt at first that almost sailed from the first baseman. There were some others, but the I’m tired and I need to sleep. Glad the Beavs won on my *Birthday*!!!!

  • Tolmes says:
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    Ah sweet thanks

  • angrybeaver says:
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    Hahaha on game 1 of this season I said we’d have to fear “KRhod”…now he comes in a one-run game with the season (possibly) on the line. Saddle up, folks.

    • angrybeaver says:
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      o/

      high five, Beavlets.

      BBRhod turns “KRhod”. I’ll get off his case for a few days!

  • mckalk mckalk says:
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    I do live stream and gametracker, though gametracker always has a delay. I thought a couple of weeks ago it would take 30 wins, looks like 31 might be the number. 28-24 did not get them in before.

    • angrybeaver says:
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      Mike Parker is funny…he’s always so emotional and disgusted with the bone-headed play. He’d actually make a good blogger or poster here.

    • angrybeaver says:
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      I think this is where we stand now:

      1-2 now gives us a chance.

      2-1 = definitely in.

      I think Cal is a factor here. They are on the bubble and I believe swept the Beavs. But they do have a much higher RPI and that carries (negative) weight. Root for Oregon to beat Cal and the Beavs to win 2.

      The life I’m seeing on offense is encouraging if they do make it. The pitching has been pretty good sans the ASU series, but they had wind and all-americans to deal with so it’s forgivable.

  • mckalk mckalk says:
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    Is there an official RPI? Boyds World is what Parker was talking about. I just checked and going in to today the Beavs were at 30 and the Bears 40. Beavers has a better overall record also.

    • JackBeav says:
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      http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2010MBArpi1.html

      I say we cheer for Cal to take two. But who expects it with the slide they’ve had to end the season?

      I think we’re good if we take two from UA. But I’d rather see our guys sweep them at home.

      I like that the frosh took us six innings and that a trio that have been having recent problems were able to close it out.

      And yes, KRhod needs to be KRhod… not BBRhod, HBPRhod, WPRhod or anything else he does. I haven’t seen this kind of closer since Ron Davis was on the mound.

    • angrybeaver says:
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      I grew up a Mets fan…we had John Franco and then Armando Benitez so I’m used to the high wire act.

      • mckalk mckalk says:
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        Mets have always been my favorite NL team, thought I don’t follow them as closely as I once did. I knew there was a reason why I like this blog!

      • angrybeaver says:
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        o/

  • angrybeaver says:
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    I’m beginning to think 1-2 this weekend will be enough. Is the selection committee really going to keep them out because of Folsom’s boneheaded baserunning mistake? They have to take that into account. And it should be fresh in their minds’ since the slide happened after that game.

    Also, they’ve been playing well down the stretch, and that is influential on selection Monday.

    These two things, coupled with a good RPI, make me think 1-2 will be (barely) enough.

    One other interesting note: look at the 4 games that were rained out. Those are 4 easy wins. Their overall record would be better without the rain outs.

  • angrybeaver says:
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    Mike Parker is so unreliable as a broadcaster. It’s like believing the narrator/governess in Henry Jame’s Turn of the Screw.

    I’ve heard plenty of people say he over exaggerates umpire blown calls. Here he’s saying the guy missed a 3rd strike (that led to 2 Wildcat runs). Did he, though?

  • angrybeaver says:
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    Wow, best hitter gone for the year.

    “OSU junior 3B Stefen Romero has a broken bone in his right arm and will miss the balance of the season.”

    The positive here is that he now might come back next year. Negative is obvious…best hitter gone if the Beavs do make the NCAA. Good to see other guys stepping up at the plate, though.

  • BeavFromEugene says:
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    “Is the selection committee really going to keep them out because of Folsom’s boneheaded baserunning mistake? They have to take that into account.”

    You’re joking about that, aren’t you?

    If you’re serious you obviously have no idea how the selection committee works. They couldn’t care less how or why a team lost and there are no bonus points for a game you should have won.

    • angrybeaver says:
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      They are humans. Their subconscious won’t allow them not to consider it.

      • BeavFromEugene says:
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        What makes you think anyone on the committee will even know anything about the details of that loss to UCLA be it consciously or unconsciously? LOL!

        Marquess from Stanford is the only Pac-10 member of the committee and I doubt he even knows the details of that game that stick in the craw with us Beaver fans. Do you honestly expect a coach from the ACC or Missouri Valley conference to know anything about the specifics of that game? In the end it’s nothing more than a score on a piece of paper to them and the details are unknown (and irrelevant).

        Even if everyone knew that a base running mistake probably cost us that game, there are no bonus points for “almost” beating a good team. As Jack points out, yes, you will take a hit for losing to a bad team. But that has nothing to do with your thinking that almost winning a game against a good team counts in your favor.

    • JackBeav says:
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      Actually, it’s well known in all of NCAA sports that selections are made for whatever reason and justified by pointing to exactly what you say they don’t point to. That’s why we have bubble teams where tourney selections are concerned.

      The Beavs didn’t get in two years ago because they lost some games they should not have lost… so the selection committee said. Those losses outweighed the games we won but should have lost apparently. That 2008 season was a lot like this year.

      I guess that means Dallas Baptist is gonna make it this year as well… even though their SOS is really weak and they lost more games they should have won than the Beavs did.

  • mckalk mckalk says:
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    I like to think 30 wins is a nice benchmark for a team with a solid RPI, so Angry might be correct in saying that 1-2 still gets them in, but I would feel a lot safer with 2-1.

    • angrybeaver says:
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      Yeah, by no means do I feel safe going 1-2. But it could be enough. If they go 1-2 it would probably depend how they lose the next two games. If they’re blow outs it might not be enough. There are many factors. I’m just saying that there are scenarios where I think 1-2 gets them in.

      I also wrote that opinion before Romero was declared out for the year. Does the loss of their best offensive weapon influence the committee? It might, given how they couldn’t score all year. In that light, they might have to win another game this weekend and put up runs doing it.

      I’m actually excited about the team for the first time all year. They are playing well and peaking. Ancillary bats are coming alive, the hitting has been more clutch, the pitching doing what is expected, etc. Cautiously optimistic here.

  • mckalk mckalk says:
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    Romero loss hurts big time, that guy is a tough SOB to play and get a hit with a broken forearm. Agreed, they look like a different team from the one that got smoked by Cal and Stanford.

  • angrybeaver says:
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    Beavs really surging. Looking good, pitching has been excellent. See you guys in the post-season.

  • Xcalifguy says:
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    Gaviglio pitched a hell of a game today, made AZ look like Div II team at the plate. 13 Ks. So hopefully this gets them over the hump, but I just don’t feel this team has the offensive pop to go very far in the tournament. If they get pitching performances every time out like todays, they don’t have to do much on O. But, I don’t expect that to happen in tournament play, and Beavs will be pitted against a higher seed no doubt. I hope they surprise me…I’m just not holding my breath.

  • JackBeav says:
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    They played scrappy today. I’d much rather see them make mistakes from being too agressive rather than falling down being conservative. It’s nice to see some small ball other than when we’re down in the 8th and 9th.

    And what’s with Waldron pulling the Dennis Eckersley imitation out of the bag?

  • angrybeaver says:
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    Why are they pitching Ryan Gorton over Robbles? Casey is that confident? All I can see is he better not be wrong!

  • angrybeaver says:
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    Cal losing today would help. If they finish the sweep it might knock out a Pac-10 team. I’m hoping it’s Arizona.

  • Xcalifguy says:
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    Don’t think Cal is going to lose – just watching on the tube, they are up 5-2 on OU at the moment. Those guys (Cal) are studs at the plate. Wish Casey would find out who they are recruiting next year, and figure out a way to coax them north. I think most anyone from the Cal lineup would seriously upgrade OSU’s offense.

    • Xcalifguy says:
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      Ok, i’ll admit i was wrong. OR wins 6-5. Surprised me they would come back.

    • angrybeaver says:
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      I’m hoping Cal and Arizona now get snubbed. OSU is playing the best of the four (UO, OSU, UA, Cal) PAC-10 bubble teams. If Oregon gets in and OSU is snubbed there should be mayhem.

  • Xcalifguy says:
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    OK, ticket is punched. OSU off to FLA (uuugh) to play FL Atlantic. 8 Pac-10 teams make it in, all but WA and USC. I think OSU got penalized to some extent based on where they are headed, but hey, they got in! I think I saw they are a 3 seed. U of FL is 1 seed in their regional. Guess it’s time to put up or shut up with the Pac10 v. SEC matchup, with the assumption Beavs have to go thru Gators to make it to next round.

    • angrybeaver says:
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      I don’t mind that regional.

      I can’t believe 8 Pac-10 teams made it. How is Cal a 2 seed?

  • Not a Crime says:
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    For a team that didn’t leave the time zone all season. I hope the time change + early game time works out ok.

    • Xcalifguy says:
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      They did leave the time zone once I think – to play Hawaii there.

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