15.Sep.2010 Analysis: Louisville @ Oregon State

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I'm not going to pretend to know a lot about the Louisville Cardinals since I haven't watched them play since 2005, but these are my points of concern:

1. They have a senior QB, which is always dangerous.

2. Mike Sanford is their offensive coordinator. As some might know, he was head coach at UNLV last season when they almost pulled the upset. It also means they probably incorporate some spread/option components.

3. They rushed for 200 yards on an SEC defense. Granted, Kentucky, but an SEC defense nonetheless.

4. 8 sacks. Inferior opponents, but still, 8 sacks. It's not as if the Beavers had those kind of numbers after playing Portland State last year, so there is something to it.

5. A lot of recruits on that roster are from Florida and SEC country. In other words, at the very least, they look the part.

6. They're coming off a victory. Confidence will be high.

That's what Louisville have going for them. Fortunately, however, there's a lot more bad news, including the 500 yards of offense they yielded to Kentucky.

There's no need to expound on this game. The Cardinal play into the Beavers hands on both offense and defense. Quiz will gain a buck fifty, Katz will notch his first win en route to throwing for 230, the defense will look better, and the Beavs will put up points. The last I saw the spread was +/- 19.5, which is too high. Bring on Boise.

31-17, Beavers.

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  • GreatWhiteHunter says:
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    Yeah, I agree. Beavers by two touchdowns – even if given the chance, Riley won’t pile on the points.

    What do you think about the Husker/Husky line? 3.5???? Seems too good to be true.

    • Beavker Beavker says:
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      Huskermax puts together a list of media picks, and many (most from CBS sports) are picking the Huskies. I disagree (being a Husker/Beaver fan), for if the Huskers O doesn’t make turnovers, I think they make it tough for the Huskies.

      But, I guess people see the first Road game, RS Frosh QB and the UW home field advantage and better opponents thus far as the decider.

      If it wasn’t for the fact all my teams hand games over to inferior teams in embarrassing ways (Beavers, Chargers, Linfield…even Husker win last week was sad due to the many, many turnovers in the Red Zone…not quite Iowa State last year, as they got the win, but embarrassing none the less) I’d say NU takes it go them. But they will probably give UW at least one TD from a turnover directly or via a less than 20 yard drive, and probably a FG from another. They’ll take a drive or two to adjust to Lockers’ running, but unlike Bankers Beavs, they will adjust. Picked off Enderle (Idaho) 5 times last week, can’t see Jake getting much through the air.

      We’ll see. It will be a nice back to back for me (NU-UW at 2:30cst, OSU-LOU 4:30cst)!

    • angry angry says:
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      I put $60 on Nebraska and the Beavs +21.5 (bought 2 points) in a parlay. I absolutely love it–they are going to murder Washington.

  • Chris Hansen says:
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    A bit off-topic I know, but I like the comparison between the relationship of Mike Bellotti and Nick Aliotti and Mike Riley and Mark Banker. After Bellotti moved on, I think a lot of duck fans were anticipating that Chip Kelly would replace Aliotti who’s defense, despite high level NFL talent such as Ngata, Chung, and Byrd has slipped.

    Instead he brought in Jerry Azzinaro as defensive line coach and seemingly the defense has changed overnight. Intensity and creative schemes has replaced the mediocrity seen two years ago.

    I think Chip Kelly insinuated to Aliotti (whether directly or not) that his job was on the line and Azzinaro would be more than qualified to replace him. This made Aliotti more welcoming to change, unlike the comfort he felt with Bellotti.

    Not sure how the Beavers could follow the model without replacing Banker or Riley but clearly the team has lost the edge defensively it once had.

    • Beavker Beavker says:
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      Wasn’t Aliotti the UCLA DC when they had Cade McNown and that high scoring offense? The defense usually gave up just as much a la the Dan Fouts led Charger era. I though Aliotti sucked. Now he’s ‘good’ again at UO? Did they try to get Wilcox at all?

    • angry angry says:
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      It’s easy to have an edge when you have a LB corp of Doggett, LaRoque, and Darlin. Recruiting has slipped. Pankey was a miss, and instead of admitting it we’re left with this. Wilson and Robinson–the verdict is still out. I think we all thought they could be solid, but also were somewhat of a reach. It’s looking more and more like they were reaches. Banker’s problem is not adapting to his personnel, his philosophy on CB play, etc. There’s only so much he can do with bad recruits, though. If I witnessed creative schemes to use what he has been given to the best ability then I doubt I’d be critical of him.

      • mckalk mckalk says:
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        I was always taught that anything that happens good or bad three times in a row becomes a trend, I think the issues with stopping the spread have become a trend. With the Banker comments in the Oregonian today, he definitely is not going to bring up the past.

      • Beavker Beavker says:
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        Maybe moving some new guys to LB? What about McCants. Maybe he’d be a good linebacker. Cody Glenn was battling for a starting job at RB once for Nebraska. They move the kid to LB, he gets hurt, and gets kicked off the team, and still makes an NFL roster at LB (and not Cleveland, Detroit or St. Louis). Maybe Hardin would be a decent LB? Suesi? Get creative.

  • Chris Hansen says:
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    Because the pace of the game can create differences in total yardage and in overall score (if your opponent has the ball more = more yards) overall yardage or scoring tends to be a poor definition for team defense.

    A better way to define team defense is to look at yards per play, over an entire season. This corrects for pace differences.

    (2009) 4.6 yards per play (OSU 5.4)

    (2008) 4.9 yards per play (OSU 5.0)

    (2007) 5.1 yards per play (OSU 4.5)

    (2006) 5.1 yards per play (OSU 5.3)

    (2005) 5.0 yards per play (OSU 5.8)

    As a point of reference, the best defenses in the country typically have a yards per play of sub 4.0 and under 4.5 usually is in the top 10 teams in the country.

    So in 2008 the Ducks were tied for 28th in the country with holding teams to 4.9 yards per play. In 2009 that was decreased to 4.6 ypp and left them tied for 11th.

    And if you think this stat doesnt correspond to great defensive teams look at last season

    Texas 3.8
    TCU 3.9
    Nebraska 4.0
    Alabama 4.1
    Ohio State 4.1

    • angry angry says:
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      The Ducks play “Bend but don’t break” and “opportunistic” defense. Always seem to get turnovers when they matter most–in the red zone, late in games, when behind, etc.

      • Beavker Beavker says:
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        You’d like to feel that even though some yards may be given up, at any given moment your D can get that takeaway, sack, fumble, or stop on 4th and 1. I don’t feel that way. And if the Beavs Offense makes a mistake, it’s points for the other team.

  • mckalk mckalk says:
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    Sanford was also the offensive coordinator for the Utah teams that put up some pretty good numbers.

  • angry says:
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    McAndrews has the flu and may not start tomorrow. Would anyone else…dare I say…be happy to see Phillipp get a shot?

    • Beavker Beavker says:
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      I just saw that from Buker or Schnell or whomever…don’t they HAVE to play Phillipp? I mean, Phillipp misses some practices and loses his spot, shouldn’t McAndrews lose his if he missed some practice (especially if he is still sick).

      Bad timing on that flu. Hopefully it doesn’t decimate the Beavs too much. The Huskers had it hit them around the time they played Va Teck last year, but I don’t recall the major players having issues.

    • ean66 says:
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      Not really sure Phillip was any better than McAndrews. It is time for someone to step up and get nasty on the O-line. Someone needs to start throwing fools around.

  • Warren says:
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    Where can I stream this game online?

    • angry angry says:
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      For free? Justin.tv might carry it.

      If you’re willing to pay, the official site carries some games. You should check before buying, though.

  • Warren says:
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    Actually, I just realized I have the station it’s being televised on. I’m such a dumbass.

  • angry angry says:
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    Louisville looks the part. Some big dudes. That coach of theirs is scary looking.

  • angry angry says:
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    D-line getting manhandled. Offense can’t get a first down. Defense is going to be wiped by the early 3rd quarter at this rate.

    #28 making a great play–first time I’ve ever been able to say that.

  • angry angry says:
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    How was this game a sell out? It’s a one possession game in the 4th quarter, and there are thousands of empty seats.

    • VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
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      I couldn’t tell…I could barely see the field, let alone the stands thanks to FSN’s shitty, non-HD picture. What a waste of a plasma screen.

  • angry angry says:
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    Like clockwork, Hekker shank at the biggest point of the game!

    • VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
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      I thought of you as soon as I saw that. He punted fairly well all game (punted way too much…how about converting a 3rd and short fellas?)…but when we needed, absolutely had to get field position – off the side of his foot.

  • angry angry says:
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    lol@ Jordan Jenkins first run. THAT is our backup!?

  • VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
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    Well, we’re 1-1. Fitting. We looked like a .500 team.

  • Alex says:
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    Biggest problem in the game- Brandon Hardin. How many coverages did he blow?

    …Look at how many completions their QB had….probably the same number.

    • ean says:
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      I agree, but part of it was that they were picking on him. BSU has 2 stud receivers so some double teams and zones might be needed. Lets hope Banker can adjust.

  • Ean says:
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    I posted this on Cliff blog but figured I would post it here to see everyones thoughts should they chose to respond.

    Just got back from the game and tailgating. That Mansini (spelling?) DT looks like a good body next to Paea and he can move it would be nice to see him on the field more. Were was Cameron Collins? he didn’t see much field time, do the coaches not trust him at LB? Dockery is our only decent cover corner. BSU has Petis and Young we are going to need someone besides Dock to make some plays. As far as the DE’s, I thought Henry looked decent, Glover missed a big tackle but played okay, Miller can beat his guy but to me his biggest problem is over pursuing the QB, you cannot get further into the backfield than the QB when they are a scrambler. The DE’s need to learn to not over pursue. Katz missed some throws badly, especially on the move. Dodge a bullet this game, it is going to take a better effort to compete with BSU.

    • angry angry says:
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      Castro had a good game.

      Both Miller and Henry get pushed a good five yards past the QB–that happened week 1, too. I thought Miller would have a big year. It hasn’t happened so far.

      Katz played well.

      The Beavers should be 24 point dogs at Boise State.

  • Dana Kyser says:
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    I see headline news, read your blog post, and think to myself, “It is better to have a permanent income than to be fascinating..”.

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