22.Sep.2010 Analysis: Oregon State @ Boise State

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 5.0/5 (5 votes cast)

Unlike Louisville, I've actually seen Boise State play, so my opinion on this game should be more educated. What follows are observations from games I've seen.

a. Boise State plays their offensive game in a 12 x 53 (width) yard box. That is, the quarterback will rarely throw the ball deeper than 12 yards. Their pass plays rely on yards after the catch, throws to the first-down markers but not beyond, etc. Slants, hitches, and improvised pass routes make for a lot of their yards. When they work the field horizontally, it's usually short passes in the flat or screens, not deep outs, etc. Precision is their best weapon.

The Beavers should encourage Moore the beat them with the deep pass by stacking the box.  It's Moore's lone weakness, so if he beats them in that manner, tip your cap.

b. Peterson likes to loosen the defense by pounding Doug Martin. Then, when the opponent has had enough contact, he hits them with the faster backs. Sometimes they do it the other way around, but either way, Martin is the key to the running game, as he is the player who seems to convert key downs and break the opponent's will.

Two things are needed in order to slow down Doug Martin.

(1) Physical mass

(2) Gang tackling

The benefit of playing man coverage with corners is it frees up a safety. The Beavers should use this safety to roam freely and swarm to the ball–gang tackling. The Beavers also need mass (i.e. Castro and his 320lbs at DT rather than Olander). They should have separate defensive packages for when Martin is in the game versus Avery. When Avery is in there, put speed on the field.

c. Boise State encourages cut backs lanes, broken plays, etc.

They'll purposely load one side of the formation, only to have Avery cut back to the weak side and rip off a big run. When they play straight up, they're much less effective. It's almost a variant of the spread in that they're getting their fastest player in space with a one on one assignment.

It's vital that Miller and Henry maintain inside contain. They can't blow past Moore and let him out on the edge where he can buy time and improvise. That's how Boise hit their big plays with the wideouts. In the run game, have the 8th man in the box cheat toward the cut back lane, and hope Wilson and Roberson are good enough to defend the strong side. The defense needs to think in terms of making the 12 x 53 box in which Boise plays even smaller. If you give these guys an inch, they'll take a yard.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Broncos like to mix things up depending on down and distance. They'll use everything from six defensive backs to the standard 4-3. I'm nervous about Ryan Katz in this game. Does he continue to show poise and avoid mistakes? If ever there's an opponent that can scheme a young QB into a dreadful game it's this one. That being said, the one advantage the Beavers have is in the skill that cannot be taught: speed. James Rodgers and Markus Wheaton can do severe damage in this game, as they are faster than any Bronco. I don't see Quiz finding running room–figure on 65 yards, max. That's a shame, too, since it would behoove the Beavs to control the clock and keep the defense off the field. However, OSU's offensive line has been man-handled when run blocking, and Boise State takes tremendous pride in stopping the run. It's a bad formula.

Prediction: This is going to sound strange, and perhaps flat out contrarian, but I don't see a blowout. Let me outline some reasons why.

  • By painting the practice field blue, the Beavers' athletic department has shown how seriously they're taking this game. Additionally, in Riley's press conferences he has astutely noted and articulated Boise's strengths, suggesting to me that he's cognizant of the opponent's tendencies, and therefore at the least will be able to slow them.
  • The entire state of Oregon will be rooting for the Beavers. I don't think you can underestimate the fact that Beavers and Ducks are on the same page for this one. You'll likely even see Duck fans at this game cheering the Beavs. In solidarity there is strength.
  • The entire nation, for the most part, will be rooting for the Beavers. Outside of Idaho, I'd wager 90% of the nation has disrespect for the Bronco's schedule. I can't imagine anyone believes they deserve a shot in the title game, and a loss on Saturday will ensure they lose that opportunity.
  • The Beavers usually come alive week 3 or 4, and last week when I expected the defense to be worn out from being on the field all game, they stepped up and sealed the victory. Am I ready to declare they're good? No, but I have to believe the stand last week will boost confidence on Saturday. A key point is how Tony Wilson came on late in that game. Has the light turned on for this young linebacker? It was flickering.
  • Boise State is a short pass, power run team. No matchup is great for the Beavers' defense right now, but is one the better options.

Those are the reasons I think the game will be relatively close. Do I think the Beavers win? Well, let me put it this way: it would surprise me, but it wouldn't shock me. Since I believe in writing the truth, it's time to admit the aura, preparation, and mindset of the team feels better this week. But, at the end of the day, Kellen Moore will be too efficient, Doug Martin too strong, Jeremy Avery and Austin Pettis too hungry, and the Bronco defense too stout. Boise wins, but not in blowout fashion.

35-24, Broncos

Jump to Bottom
  • JackBeav says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    I know the sensible pick is anything from us as two score dogs to a 30+ loss. But I can’t get on that wagon this year. Despite the defense looking silly over the first two games, I think they’re on an accelerated schedule for success this year.

    The run blocking had me really worried at TCU. But the weaknesses against UL were penalties by guys who don’t normally get penalties. Yeah, we killed ourselves at times, but our boys were getting out and hitting. And it wasn’t because of a less formidable opponent, though that helped with confidence. It was because Katz loosened them up with the underneath game. He suddenly had d-linemen wondering if they should be in the backfield so easily… and the answer was usually yes.

    There’s no beating this defense with misdirection, so I wouldn’t bother. Hit Halahuni and Reese on five yard dumps. Run Quizz for three. Get the ball to Quizz and James in space. Get a couple first downs to wind them a little and put them on their heels. If they’re the Boise I think they are, they will start making noise and start pounding their chests in a ritualistic exhibition of resolve. They’ll take some headshots at our boys, and the WAC officials will look the other way.

    That’s the point in the game where the Beavs need to take over. While I respect what Petersen has done with Boise, they’re just a glorified Fresno State. And we just can’t get over Fresno State.

    We are bigger, stronger and faster than they are as a whole. They like to think they have five of Ryan Clady across their front, but they don’t. Their team is ripe for a beating, and our boys have to want to give one. Just like Stanford did to Oregon last year, we have to take that point in the game and start plowing up under their chins.

    It might take a cheap shot on Quizz or James to wake this team out of its slumber. But Boise has never had the chance to cheap shot the Rodgers brothers. I hope they try, because all hell will break loose if they do.

    For once, I’m going to trust that our staff will recognize personnel needs, place them and leave them in times of need. The game may not start off with the correct personnel, but that will be addressed quickly.

    Our boys are going to start off looking like their fuzzy selves. I think it will play out to a 10-7 first quarter in BSU’s favor. Then they’ll pull their Tarzan act, and that’s when a Rodgers Bros. team who has never heard of Fresno will start gnashing teeth and tearing appendagesoff the opponents. We’ll get called for more than our share of PF’s (especially on a couple 3rd and longs) but the world will see what the announcers tell them to see… Boise brought it on themselves. They bit off more than they could chew, and halftime will be a confused buzz while the crowd tries to figure out who we are and what we did with their team.

    Coming out of halftime up 20-10, we will proceed to pound them into oblivion. We’ll see James decleat a couple of their LB’s just for fun, and we’ll wait for 15 minutes while the WAC officials discuss whether or not a 5’8″ WR is allowed to do that while his brother, laughing for all to hear, runs by for a big gainer.

    “There must be something we can call.” The world hears one official exclaim these words when a bubble-headed sideline reporter wanders over to their huddle with a live mic to ask what’s taking so long.

    We’ll lay two more TD’s on them in the 3rd.

    Then we’ll have a bit of a nail-biting session when they score quickly in the 4th and take a pick to the house. But our guys settle down, and we start marching on an eight minute drive for a FG. They rush down the field in a hurry, but time expires on them as they try to get the snap off somewhere around the 20.

    Beavs win 37-24!

    So I guess it could be that way. But I’ll just play it safe and say Boise 26, Oregon State 13.

  • Jim S says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    One big plus for the OSU D and Banker is they don’t have to worry about a mobile QB.

    • Beavker Beavker says:
      VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

      I didn’t think Dalton was too mobile. Big, moderately slow…scored one rushing TD the year before, scores two vs. the Beavs.

      Moore might become Michael Vick real quick…

      • ean says:
        VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
        Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

        Dalton is definitely mobile. Also regardless of who you (or I) think is more mobile, TCU has designed QB run plays and BSU doesn’t typically do that.

        • Jim S says:
          VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
          Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

          Thanks, that was my real point. That TCU and apparently Louisville (I didn’t watch the game) have plays designed to allow the QB to keep the ball, BSU does not. And apparently, even after several years of defending the Ducks, it still blows Banker’s mind that it is legal for quarterbacks to run with the ball in their hands.

          • ean says:
            VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

            I thought the defense played plenty well enough last year to win that game. Oregon was the better team, the defense gave us what we needed in my opinion we just needed to make a few plays, get a few more tackles in space (that is talent not coaching) or catch one more break and we won that game. There weren’t many sacks but the entire defense played contain, there weren’t the over pursuit problems like the Louisville game. I am starting to wonder if that was more an issue of bad coaching and scouting. I think the coaches were looking ahead for sure which is why I feel we will show up better than we have all season, the coaches have been plotting for 3 weeks for this game (then again so has BSU). This is college football… a good offense will move the ball on a good defense.

        • Beavker Beavker says:
          VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
          Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

          He’s no Bernie Kosar. Just saying the guy scores one rushing TD last year, he scores 2 this year on the Beavers in game one. They exploited a blaring weakness in the Defense that has been apparent for a while now.

          • angry says:
            VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

            Are you talking about Dalton? He ran for 3 scores last year and 8 the year prior. He also had over 500 rushing yards last season.

          • Beavker Beavker says:
            VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

            According to the crawling stats on ESPN 2, when they showed the score, it said he ran for 2 TD’s that game, ‘had 1 prior year’.

            So he ran for 3…he ran for 2 in one game vs. the sive like Beaver D. My point, if we played a REAL running QB, we’d love more games. That Michigan kid would roll of 600 yards on the Beavs himself.

            Also, 40 yards a game, does not a Mobile QB make.

          • angry angry says:
            VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

            I bet even a team like Navy would kill the Beavs. They need to figure this out, because the mobile QB has only been growing over the last 15 years.

            The answer, I believe, is to recruit S and RBs and convert them to LBs. You saw this happen with Doctor and now Collins. Maybe they’re figuring it out. Though, McCants should be a LB, so maybe not.

          • Beavker Beavker says:
            VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

            Agreed. I’ve mentioned it before, but Cody Glen is a LB in the NFL, and has about a season and half of LB experience at Nebraska. He was a RB prior, and a decent one at that. Apparently the 27th ranked RB for yardage in Texas history, and 8th in 3A. They were RB heavy and moved him to where they needed him. 1.5 seasons and he’s a pro now. He’s on special teams, but still…

            Unfortunately, the Beavs seem so shallow at RB right now, even McCants is indispensible at RB! Sad…

          • angry angry says:
            VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

            Speaking of McCants, how is he not ahead of Jordan Jenkins? Granted, we’ve seen only 1 carry, but Jenkins had absolutely no body control. He plowed into the pile, upended himself, and did a face plant. I’ve never seen a run like that in my life. It was hilarious, and almost seemed in slow motion, because I was able to both laugh and think, “oh no, this guy is out of control, he’s going to fumble” during the play!

          • Beavker Beavker says:
            VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

            I don’t know. If Quizz goes down, they really don’t have anything in my book. Might as well just run a QB sneak twice, then try to pass for 8 yards. If the pass is incomplete, bring in Hekker to punt it, most likely backwards for a safety, then get ready for next week.

          • angry angry says:
            VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

            Hekker pulling a Roy Riegels? I can see that.

          • JackBeav says:
            VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

            Jenkins was planting to cut into the hole when Johnson stuck his leg backward and tripped him. That’s why he fell into Johnson’s butt head first. At first, I thought a UL d-lineman stuck a paw through the pile and made the play. Then I used my DVR thingy.

          • Beavker Beavker says:
            VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

            I just tried to think of the most absurd thing at the moment. I guess I should give the kid a break, the Beavs a break…I just don’t feel like it today. Work has left me yet again with less of the will to live than the previous day, so I find solice in it. Seems my teams achieve the absurd a lot in their quest to lose or fail to get to the next level.

  • ean says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    I agree completely on Castro and the DE’s not over pursuing. Castro looks to have a few extra pounds and could probably lean out some but he had some nifty moves and showed some athleticism verse Louisville.

  • angry says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    One other thing I should note: how about the Beavers put together a full 60 minutes? They could have blown out Louisville, but they relaxed and lapsed once they got the lead. The inability to maintain focus for an entire game is a point of frustration, for me at least.

    Momentum in this game will be big. When that swings focus is critical. Riley discussed this in his pregame media sessions, so hopefully he’s preaching it to the team.

  • angry says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    I was thinking this morning that the Beavs chances of winning this game were probably 15%. i.e. every 100 visits to Boise I’d imagine they win 15 of those games.

    So, I put it through the simulator to see how accurate that was. The results (% of victory and mean score):

    Oregon State Beavers 24.8 | 32
    Boise State Broncos 75.2 | 42

    After 100 simulations, the Broncos win ~75% of the time. The average margin of victory was 10 points.

    Now I’m feeling pretty good about my 35-24 pick.

    • JackBeav says:
      VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

      Am I reading it wrong? Isn’t 1 in 4 better than 1 in 15?

      • angry says:
        VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
        Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

        My bad. I meant 15% (my hunch) vs 25% (sim prediction).

        15/100 vs 25/100.

        Edited it.

      • angry angry says:
        VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
        Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

        I’ve run the sim 4 times using last years rosters, and the Beavers have lost by 40 each time. Yikes.

        Update: Finally, on the 9th simulation, the (2009) Beavs eked out a 7 point win.

  • Beavker Beavker says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    I’m concerned out LB’s will be exploited again. This ‘box’ you refer to is home to the linebackers…they need to defend much better this week. Hopefully they’ve made strides. I think the Safeties and CB might sneak in a bit. I hope Moore doesn’t find his deep game all the sudden. I am guessing he will try, and there will be some sort of trickeration, QB throw back, long bomb wide open with a safety running behind them to no avail.

  • angry angry says:
    VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    It confuses me how the Beavers seem to get teams at their peak. Cincy and Penn State are two teams we could probably beat right now, yet we played vintage versions. Meanwhile, TCU and Boise State will both stink next season when they lose a ton of seniors.

    Oregon, on the other hand, schedules Michigan and Tennessee on the road in down years and comes out of it looking like geniuses.

    What is the reason for this? Oversight by the AD? Luck of the draw? I have no idea, but the sample is large enough now that it makes me scratch my head.

    • ean says:
      VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

      That No. 1 LSU team we almost took down was over rated.

    • Beavker Beavker says:
      VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

      We Huskers are saying that about USC. Would love to have played them this year and last year instead of during the Callahan debacle. Stanford is looking for this to work our for them finally. They seemed to have been getting closer to ND each year, now I think they rip them a new one…I hope.

      Again…playoffs needed. To much ‘timing’ with schedules made somtimes a decade in advance which weigh heavily on your ‘rankings’ and chances for a title.

  • Quatre Quatre says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    56-24 BSU. Moore will march up and down the field doing anything he wants. Banker will look bewildered on the sideline and then start yelling at random players/coaches. Most people watching will stop watching by the end of the third quarter. It’s so tough to be a Beaver.

    • angry angry says:
      VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

      I think Banker’s problem is he tries to defend everything rather than just the opponent’s strength. He should have just let TCU pass all day (we saw what happened when they did) and stack the box, but he tried to play balanced and defend the entire field. Riley loves balance, and it’s probably why he accepts Banker’s approach.

      That being said, you don’t have to defend deeper than 12 yards versus Boise. They rarely run those routes, and Moore can’t get the ball deep. Just don’t use your safeties there. If Boise executes in that range, tip your cap and move on to Arizona State. If the Beavers get burnt on a trick play, as some have suggested will happen, then shame on them. Awareness/focus needs to be high at all times.

  • cloudydays says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    I expect them to do the same thing to Boise that they did to TCU — that is, stretch the field early on to hypothetically open the running game up for Quizz. The problem is that I’m afraid that Boise is too damn disciplined to let James or Markus or Jordan or whoever behind them. Fortunately, there is no Kyle Wilson at Corner for Boise, so there is a chance James could burn them a few times.

    With all that said, they could also try to stretch the field horizontally, with fly sweeps and bubble screens. You say that Boise prides themselves on stopping the run, so you have to try and take advantage of that early on, with deep play action throws, screens, etc.

    The entire team, both on offense and defense is going to have to play aggressive, and stick it to Boise early and often. Set the tone early, get BSU back on their heels, and try to strike as much as possible while you have momentum.

    Ideally, with this gameplan in mind, you get up early 14-0. We’ve seen OSU do this before at Boise, but one play changed the momentum and got BSU going. Katz MUST avoid turning the ball over. OSU absolutely cannot afford to either give them points from other sources than their offense, or give them the short field. This also means that Hekker will have to be on all game.

    This isn’t Bama, where they just overrun you with talent. You could make the argument that Oregon State will have 3 of the 4 best players on the field on Saturday (Quizz, Moore, Paea, James).

    The more I think about it, the more I expect this to be a good game.

    • angry angry says:
      VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

      Definitely.

      I can picture the Beavs up 10-0 and then having their patented lapse. Next thing you know it’s 21-10.

      I can also see Boise coming out of the gate like a gangbusters and pulling a Penn State before the Beavs have a chance to blink.

      For those who follow the line:

      -850 Boise State.

      I don’t think I’ve ever seen a money line that high. The point is “only” +17.5, which is extremely disproportionate to the money. You’d expect -550 or -600.

      • cloudydays says:
        VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
        Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

        Wow, that’s a monster ML for a game between two ranked teams. Apparently Vegas thinks there is no way in hell BSU loses.

      • GreatWhiteHunter says:
        VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
        Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

        My site had it for -650. More in line with what you’d expect…although according to all of the analysts, it may as well be -100000000000.

    • UofDuck says:
      VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

      Actually, Va-Tech got behind their DB’s quite a few times and Tyrod under-threw the receivers. In my opinion, that is BSU’ Achilles Heal. Go deep young Katz, go deep I say!

  • OS_Beaver says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    A few of us Section 225 Beaver Bombardiers are driving to Boise to be in the crowd during Gameday. We are going to just watch the game at a local pub though in full Beaver regalia. In other news the ASU game is already sold out except for a few Club Level seats. Good news that the Pac-12 is set for next year..now if we can either get full zipper, CA zipper or Bay schools to the North we will be OK. Us with the Mountain schools is our worst case and leaves our future in the hands of the CA schools. I love the PAC so I would hate if we ever became MWC bait.

  • VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    I agree with loading up the box.. The safeties are going to have to be very active in the run support and short pass post catch run support. I am concerned, however that BSU has done there homework and realizes that we have not really been tested with the deep ball yet this year. I look for BSU to take a couple of shots deep early to make our safeties play honest. The secondary will have to defeat these attempts and continue to come downhill aggressively in support of action in the box. That means the corners playing tight man coverage will have to get their heads around to see the ball. The Outside linebackers need shed blockers and beat BSU to the edge , but get there under control and ready to make a play. The Middle linebacker position has to man up, take on and shed blockers at the line of scrimmage instead of 4 yards down field. DE’s come hard and fast, but under control and able to read the play. DT’s bring the mass an raise hate and discontent up the middle.

    • angry angry says:
      VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

      I don’t think Moore can throw the ball more than 25 yards. At least not without winding up, and I don’t think he’ll have the time to do that. I expect the Beavs to get good pressure. They got good pressure on the last two QBs, they were just mobile enough to get out of it–Moore won’t be, so it’s a matter of how fast he checks down, etc.

      • GreatWhiteHunter says:
        VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
        Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

        I agree. Beavs will put enough pressure on Moore to limit his ability to look too far down field. But, we’ll give up plenty of yards on the 5-10 yard pass plays to make up for it. Their WR’s are the prototype – big, tall, fast. They’ll get their yards.

  • JackBeav says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    Check it out…
    http://twitter.com/ChipBrownOB/status/25313157071

    • angry angry says:
      VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

      First off, I’m not going to believe that until I hear Scott say it.

      But, if that winds up being true, I’ve warmed up to it. I like the simplicity and logic behind it. The Beavers are in the same class/talent level as those teams, so it’s a good fit competitively.

      At first I thought it would kill recruiting, but then I took a glance at recruits we land from the LA area. They aren’t guys that the rest of the Pac-10 recruits anyway, so why would this hurt recruiting? I’m more concerned about the recruiting hit in Arizona. We get some solid talent from that state and go head to head with the Arizona schools.

      You also have to think long-term, though. When Riley leaves, maybe we get someone who can recruit elite talent and go head to head with LA schools. In that case, being in the North will hurt big time. Equal revenue sharing better be a clause in the agreement, and I imagine it is if the AD’s are (reportedly) signing off on this.

      • OS_Beaver says:
        VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
        Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

        It is probably the split that causes the most infighting and stability problems though. The South schools with all CA could just join the Big 12 or negotiate which teams to kick out if Texas demands more Big 12 teams be let in for a Pac-16. Larry Scott would become that much more of a puppet of the CA schools. If you zipper or CA zipper than you split the nice destinations in SF and LA, the recruiting, the media, political power AND Larry Scott.

        • JackBeav says:
          VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
          Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

          It takes 75% to do anything in the conference.

          From a regional standpoint, why would CU and Utah be in the same division as the three schools furthest away?

          I’m not going to believe anything until it’s official, but I also think this helps us in recruiting to the east. Colorado is just far enough out there that they get national pub.

          I really really like it for hoops.

          And let’s be honest. How many teams would come out

          • JackBeav says:
            VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

            … of the South? It may increase the value of the northern teams in national perspectives to not be a part of the USC-and-five conversation.

  • VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    The BSU secondary is very suspect, and I think we’ll be able to exploit that well enough to keep the score close.

    I just hope we can pull out a win…for nothing else than to shut up all of the BSU fanatics…they give O a run for their money in the annoying/obnoxious fan category. Didn’t realize anyone was close until moving to ID.

  • JackBeav says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    Off topic, and not meant to be mean-spirited…

    Does anyone think Gio is shaking his head at the misfortunes attached to his choice of schools?

    I would certainly think someone hexed me. And I’m not superstitious.

    • angry angry says:
      VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

      I’m sure a lot of guys are. Justin Edison and Dominic Galas come to mind.

      Gio was very injury prone in high school, and so far that’s continued in college.

      • VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
        Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

        I look forward to the day we can add Owa to that list. Maybe we already can.

      • JackBeav says:
        VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
        Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

        There was the injury, but all the corruption and academic fraud running rampant has started a rumor that it might rise to the level of the death penalty for the program.

        I don’t think it’ll come to that. There’s more smoke than there is fire at this point. But to even have the rumor out there is bad bad joo-joo.

        • osbeavs says:
          VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
          Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

          If they do get the death penalty those athletes will be allowed to transfer. Anyone think that Gio would come here?

          • JackBeav says:
            VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

            With all the money UNC has put into football the last four or five years, I think the ACC would intervene and keep the death penalty from occurring. And that’s if it was even a consideration. Think USC sanctions or a little worse. In that case, underclassmen would suffer penalties if they still wanted to transfer.

            Plus, I don’t think Gio is the type of person to reneg on a commitment once acted upon. Remeber that he was committed to play for Charlie Weis. Maybe Notre Dame becomes an easier x-fer if it plays out that way.

  • gotmilk says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    Broncs by 30

  • osbeavs says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    Back to the conference split discussion:

    I don’t think that Revenue sharing should be a part of the conference split discussion. We don’t need to give in just to get a revenue split, what schools actually like the unequal sharing? The only ones that come to mind are UCLA, USC and UW. UW seems to be softening its stance because it hasn’t done well for a few years now. Beyond that, it would take 4 teams to veto a revenue share, there simply aren’t 4 teams. We can push for a revenue share and a zipper because they are separate issues. We already have the votes for a revenue share, we don’t need to leverage for it. Now a larger part than equal may sway the schools to go for a north-south split.

    • JackBeav says:
      VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

      You can’t compartmentalize the issues anymore. The NoCal schools will side with the SoCal schools on the revenue sharing issue so long as they can’t get protected games against the SoCal schools. Either we give in to them on the revenue sharing, or we let them play against the SoCal schools on an annual basis.

      The only reason anyone talks about a protected rivalry game is because the zipper is a consideration, or the NoCal schools might end up in a division other than the SoCali’s. So one protected rivalry game is a sensible consideration. But two protected games just shoots the schedule in the foot.

      So either we do the zipper and place the rivalry games (Civil War, Terr. & Apple Cups, the Big Game, Victory Bell) a week before Thanksgiving (the week before all other rivalry ‘weekends’ begin–corner the market on compelling games). Or we just stick the morons with the SoCal schools and be done with them.

      I personally like the idea of the rivalry games the week before Thanksgiving. Then we give the league the next week off as a whole, and we all come back for one last divisional match-up to end the season. The chances for a rematch in the league championship would be very very small (it wouldn’t have happened last year if it was a zipper). But if it happened it would happen three weeks later with everyone getting a week’s rest between.

      But I’m happy to let the NoCal schools get stuck in the south if only to let them get their just desserts for playing politics. They would gain a considerable advantage by retaining two SoCal protected games and removing themselves from the same division. So give them the games and lose the advantage.

      Didn’t anyone ever tell them never to mix politics and sports?

      • JackBeav says:
        VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
        Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

        Besides, the two divisions will be:
        1. USC
        2. Six teams in the other division

        Speaking as an economist, those would be the target schools for recruits. Perception says USC will win the lion’s share of recruits as well as the division (post-Fink of course). What’s the best way to get back at USC for not recruiting you? Go to the opposite division and be their rep in the league championship. The odds are better than being a part of the ‘and-5’ you’re sure to be when you’re in USC’s division.

        • osbeavs says:
          VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
          Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

          I don’t think most athletes think that way. Look at the Big 12, overlooked athletes have not gone to the north to get back at the south. They stay in division so they can play them every year and get a shot. I think that if we split north/south its only a matter of time before we have the same problem the Big 12 just had.

          Also, the NorCal schools would be foolish to lord the revenue sharing over us as a way to get their way in the division split. That is a lose/lose scenario. I don’t know how we turned out in 2009 but in 2008 OSU was either 2nd or 3rd in TV revenues.

          • JackBeav says:
            VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
            Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

            The Big XII played out as the model suggests. The only problem is that Nebraska and Colorado are the only viable teams in the North which can carry sustained success. The others (except ISU) basked in glory when both those two were down. But it just takes one to kill any sense of competition in the division.

            The same can be said of the South, except aTm should have been the the third wheel in that equation. I think the summer’s dealings proved that was the case regardless of onfield success.

            There is no competition killer in the NW schools now. OSU would be the outlier if it weren’t for a decade of sustained winning. So that’s out the window.

            Recruits know that they can affect any of the teams in a division set opposite USC. They don’t have the same opportunity in the same division. The competition in the Pac 10 is ruled by parity beyond USC. Like it or not, that’s the reality.

            There will always be two or three dregs in any conference. I submit that those dregs would move to the Bay Area (and stay there) if the NoCal schools go to the South.

  • VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    too bad there isn’t a forum on this site to talk about football issues affecting next season so (we can get some insight on tomorrows games…oh, wait a minute…disregard this post…

    • JackBeav says:
      VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

      Everything that’s going to be said about this game has been said.

      Why beat a dead horse?

      On second thought….

  • OS_Beaver says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    Angry,

    With this talk of pod schedulin g do you think the NCAA will just sign off on it and approve the CCG? The official rules say that there must be a round-robin within divisions. Within pods doesn’t fit current rules but I don’t think the NCAA thought too broadly when they wrote them. I expect Scott will get approval or otherwise they will have to use a zipper or N/S without pods.

    • angry angry says:
      VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

      Remember, the pod is for scheduling purposes, not division alignment, so the pod is not going to happen because you wouldn’t necessarily play every member in your division.

      I think Scott wants a North/South split for marketing purposes. Think about it; he comes from a marketing background;; it’s his forte. And it’s much easier to market a product that makes geographical sense to the rest of America. My guess is he throws (equal) revenue sharing at the north west schools to get them on board.

      • OS_Beaver says:
        VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
        Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

        I know the proposed divisions. Why is the pod part of it getting multiple write-ups though. Bleacher and DeCarolis act like it is getting serious attention and with either a zipper or N/S it doesn’t fit current rules because not every division member always plays eachother. The pod does make some sense but they need approval of NCAA. The MWCconnection website is mentioning a worse pod idea where you play another pod completely some years and two out of the other pod. I like the 3 of 4 from both much more. Maybe though that is some awful workaround where some year you play all teams in your division and therefore it is more likely to get approval? I hope not because I want a minimum of 3 games against CA schools a year. I am just trying to figure if Scott already has OK for this pod idea or why it is being written up so much in connection with the current N/S lean.

        • angry angry says:
          VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
          Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

          Listen to how complex that is, though? Then think how easy the N/S split is. That’s why it will win out. Plus it’s what USC wants.

          Anyone else up way too early on a weekend to watch Gameday?

  • angry angry says:
    VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    I like the team’s confidence. Riley saying, “we don’t want to just be in these big games, we want to win them.”

    Good sign.

    Upset?

  • UofDuck says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    Good luck to my furry little bark biting neighbors. Shock the college football world today on the big stage. Ride that horse into the ground and then come on home.

  • Warren says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    I honestly think we will win this game for one reason: Kellen Moore is not a scrambling QB whatsoever, and if it wasn’t for scrambling QB’s, we’d be 2-0.

  • Beavker Beavker says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    I admire little BSU’s success and their ability to play with the Big Boys and win against the Big Boys lesser brothers, but I feel they are getting a little too big for their britches. Time to have a back down to Earth moment tonight.

    Come on Beavs. Dig deep. Spoil the Game Day extravaganza in Boise.

  • Xcalifguy says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    Wow…Beavs are just suckin’ it hard. Very little going right (again)… BSU just toying with them. Short of a miracle in the 2nd half, this one’s gonna go as expected.

    Is there a way OSU can hire Peterson and staff?

  • Recruiting Updates

  • Categories

  • Archives