08.Jan.2011 Basketball: Oregon State @ Washington

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Having watched Washington wear down Oregon on Thursday night, I have a good feel about how the game will play out this afternoon. It's amazing how much clearer a prediction can be if you actually get to see these teams on TV. It's 2011 now Fox, come on already, put games on TV.

Anyway, for those who didn't see the game, Oregon was able to hang with Washington for a half. They even took the lead early in the 2nd quarter. Then they made a few bad passes, failed to capitalize on Washington's spree of turnovers, and when Washington started driving to the basket (capped by an IT dunk) the crowd went wild, the momentum shifted, and the game quickly got out of hand. Washington gained more confidence; Oregon fell to 0-3 in conference (ha ha!).

From what I saw, Thomas and Ross are Washington's best players. Bryan-Amaning looked to be a force inside, too.

The Beavers will come out amped for this game. Washington is #1 in the conference, so they will receive everyone's best shot. And the Beavs know that with a win they take over that position. For this reason, expect mad effort in the first ten minutes. The problem is the Beavers commit too many turnovers, and while they get steals and force turnovers themselves, they do not capitalize on them, which in the final analysis makes the turnovers they do get a net loss (i.e. it is a lot of energy wasted to steal a pass, sprint down the court, and miss a layup 5 to 10 times per game). For this reason, I see the Beavers "fading" as this game progresses.

Washington reportedly has problems with zones, but I saw them shred Oregon's 2-3. If the Beavers play man, match-ups will be a problem. Who covers Thomas? I'd put Cunningham on him. Ross is another problem. Nelson needs to see 25 minutes in this game and hang out in Terrance's back pocket. There's no answer for Bryan-Amaning. Neither Brandt nor Burton can handle his size or moves. Collier is still a bit too green. I expect BA to be Washington's high scorer, possibly teeing of for 30. Then there's the supporting cast, who seem to do a solid job of nailing the coffin when you stop their core guys.

I think the Beavs best chance in this game is playing a 2-3 zone and switching up to man randomly to confuse Washington. Washington likes to run, so playing a deliberate half court game (on offense) could frustrate the Dawgs. The Beavers also need to capitalize on the steals and turnovers they do get, otherwise they are just helping Washington by tiring themselves, as I noted above. Finally, making free throws (sound fundamentals) will be important. We can't have Joe Shaq Burton doing his best mason impression and bricking free throws. I don't know, it's hard to make much of a case for OSU, but the aforementioned are some ways I can foresee them at least neutralize the game a bit and keeping it close into the second half. If that happens, then all bets are off.

Gametime: 3:30 PST

TV: Fox Sports

Stream: None, but check Justin.tv after tipoff to see if any rabid fans are streaming it.

Radio: Kpam

Go Beavs, take the conference lead.

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  • MudAndSticks MudAndSticks says:
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    “…There’s no answer for Bryan-Amaning….”

    How about a combo of Johnson and Deane?

    🙂

  • Beavocalypse says:
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    My prediction this year will remain constant so I’ll say it one last time.

    If Wallace, Johnson, and Haynes play for more than a half collectively, we lose. These wastes of space from the Jay John era are killing this team and watching them is like getting my toenails ripped out of my foot.

    • angry angry says:
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      I know.
      Every writeup I do is under the assumption these guys will see no minutes or decreased minutes. This will be a 30+ point loss if those guys see major minutes, as none of them can defend well. Johnson is “fair” at defense, but he’s awareness is terrible.

  • angry angry says:
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    Great, Johnson and Haynes.

    Still OSU has not won an opening tip this year…

  • angry angry says:
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    Brandt’s intensity there was pretty awesome. Great awareness, too.

  • angry angry says:
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    Great, 1-3-1 zone.

    Translation: open 3s and no rebounding.

    Need to get better D in this game.

  • VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
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    Why was Burton substituted for Brandt?

    • MudAndSticks MudAndSticks says:
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      Ours is not to reason why, …….

      Burton does some good things but his height really hurts the Beavs on D

  • angry angry says:
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    Why does Omari Johnson never dunk? The guy is tall…and can’t make layups.

  • angry angry says:
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    Thomas reminds me of Derek Fisher of the Lakers. Seems to hit those calming 3s at crucial moments.

    Beavs playing pretty well. Hate how the zone is giving such easy second chance rebounds but otherwise solid.

  • angry angry says:
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    Refs calling a good, fair game. First one I’ve seen called this year.

  • Beavocalypse says:
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    Way to close out the half guys.

  • angry angry says:
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    Can a basketball guru tell me why we haven’t seen any man defense?

    Also, anyone know how many second chance rebounds/points Washington scored? I see lazy and/or zero effort boxing out. Sometimes I see 4 Washington guys under the hoop and all the Beavs on the wing.

    Dislike button on the 1-3-1 zone.

  • uncanny says:
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    It seems to me CR has a short leash with Roberto, a missed shot or a foul and he’s out of the game. I’d like to see CR unleash him more and let Jared and him develop some on-court chemistry. The more Jared plays the better he gets, I feel Roberto would be the same except Haynes and Wallace are getting too many of his minutes.

    • angry angry says:
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      I agree with this 100%. He’s babying Nelson.

      • uncanny says:
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        Roberto needs to get serious minutes and take his lumps this season so he’ll go into next year knowing his role and playing with confidence. I’d rather they lose games this year because of young guys making mistakes and learning, then losing because the upperclassmen still can’t get it done.

  • OS_Beaver says:
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    If we can pull this game off and get the “W” then I say Craig Robinson is clearly the prefered head coach at OSU and OSU basketball has achieved another key step in getting the program back to its better years.
    These gusy can do it, just have to play hard and smart and really want it. Go Beavs…I like the effort.

  • VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
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    Brandt for the most part I think has played really pretty well. He is the only one who’s really boxed out at all. Too many forced shots in the game. Starks can really shoot it but he forces it too much and throws up too many wild shots. Better defense, box out and better shot selection and OSU wins this game.

  • angry angry says:
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    I have a feeling we’re going to see the OSU fade pretty quickly here. This game has mimicked the Oregon game from the other night, and that got into the 20s quickly.

  • VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
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    Amanning is extremely annoying. Any time he makes a play he always feels the need to scream and hit his chest and when he allows a basket he’s always crying. Guy is completely un-likeable

    • angry angry says:
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      An easy way to shut him up is to beat him.

      This game is out of control. Beavs always lose control in the 2nd half. They can’t play two good quarters. Scary how accurate my prediction/write up for this game was. Ugh.

      • VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
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        I expected him so I’m not really all that upset with how it is going. They’re young they will get better and I have a feeling next time the outcome will be much different.

      • mckalk mckalk says:
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        At about 15 minutes into the game, I was sipping my Rolling Rock and thinking Angry missed on this one. The Beavs are at least showing up.

        WHY DO I DOUBT YOU OH GREAT ONE!!!

  • angry angry says:
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    What the hell is Nelson doing?
    Wide open 3 and he charges instead???

  • uncanny says:
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    Nothing is going right at this point. UW is on a 28-5 run. You can’t win games giving up runs like that.

  • MudAndSticks MudAndSticks says:
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    Why in the hell does Parker go on and on about how the fuskies have out scored the Beavs by blah, blah?

    It’s almost like he’s rubbing it in into the folks who are listening.

    As far as I’m concerned Parker sucks as a basketball annoucer.

    • MudAndSticks MudAndSticks says:
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      should be “rubbing it in for the folks”.

      As far as I’m concerned Parker is a good baseball announce and that’s about it.

      • VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
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        He just keeps his listeners informed nothing wrong with that. I like listening to him. We could have Jerry Allen instead who is much worse.

      • angry angry says:
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        He whines a lot for a pro. I like his voice and descriptions, though.

  • Xcalifguy says:
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    Not to deter from the bball, but just announced – Stanford seeking permission to interview Chris Petersen from BSU for head coaching job. That’s who OSU should be interviewing!! 🙁

    • angry angry says:
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      Peterson only knows how to coach thugs. Stanford men come from privilege. Bad match.

      (half joking, but I don’t think that’s a great match).

  • Beavocalypse says:
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    This is a time when it seems like our teams play more like the euphemism than the mascot.

    Fuckin’ beavers.

  • angry angry says:
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    The big difference I see between these teams how tireless Washington plays. The Beavers tend to let up at stages of each game. Either mentally lose focus, or physically tire and lose intensity. This game was lost in the first five minutes of the second half when the Beavers lost intensity and lapsed. Then they go into their frenzied come back attempt of jacking up threes. It’s been a common pattern, broken only by the two good wins to open conference play. Meanwhile, Washington just keeps coming and coming–they haven’t let up for a second.

    What is that? Coaching? Talent? Confidence? I guess it’s all of them, but it is sure frustrating to watch.

    • Beavocalypse says:
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      It’s the culture we have at OSU, Angry. You’ve said it numerous times and people seem to be happy with “gee golly shucks we sure tried for a little while there”.

      The problem is that there’s always ONE game where they surprise someone and people cling desperately to that.

  • mckalk mckalk says:
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    This was a goddamn conference game against a rival. Where does the program get guys with no pride?
    I doubt even someone like Clemson (or whoever is bad in the ACC) would let Duke score 63 points in a half!!!! At least there could have been some hard fouls to take those cocky smirks off of Overton and MBAs faces. Instead,we get deer in the headlights looks and seniors making absolutely no impact.

  • angry angry says:
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    Mckalk, if you thought this writeup was accurate, check out my score prediction on o-live.

    http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindbeaversbeat/2011/01/huskies-beavers_romar_isnt_a_b.html#comments

    30 was apparently being too kind!

  • angry angry says:
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    At least my Jets won.
    East coast mentality–win important games or fire everyone and try again. It works!

    • OneEyedKing says:
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      That’s why the Jets won the Superbowl last year!!!

      Oh wait…

      Ask Notre Dame and Michigan how firing a coach every other year works.

  • MudAndSticks MudAndSticks says:
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    Well, this certainly helped me get my mind off the games played in Washington.

    Girls in sports:
    http://www.sportsbybrooks.com/17-year-old-simona-halep-is-shot-jaw-dropper-23512

  • JR says:
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    Even with the hot three shooting and the lead in the 1st half the Beavs were never going to win that game. Its just sad to seem them allow it to happen.

    I would think knowing your opponent is superior would keep you focused and even a little angry. We all saw the 2nd half coming, I’m sure Robinson did, but they still came out lethargic and MBA and Isiah had no problem taking advantage.

    Beavs need to have the mindset of sweep vs. the LA schools. I know Robinson hasn’t beat Howland but 4-2 would be nice. SC will be a challenge. Time to start Burton over Brandt? Between Collier and Johnson there is already enough players who lack offense amongst the starters. Joe has liabilities but finally he is capitalizing on some of his better attributes.

    • angry angry says:
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      Collier has regressed a bit over the past few games, but these are his first Pac-10 games. I’d like to see more of him, as I think he’s a real player. I’d sit Johnson in favor of Collier.

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