11.Nov.2013 Living in Fear

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My theory is that we have Bob D and Mike Riley because the large OSU donors are living in fear.

These people likely are, or were, successful entrepreneurs, who at some point in their lives took a big risk that paid off. So what happened to that maverick spirit? Did they become advocates of the status quo (not just football, but in life) because they’re afraid of losing everything in the event of a paradigm shift? Did they get old, and grow into the conservative principles that come with age? I don’t know. But something is holding these people back from making the radical changes that are obviously necessary.

We hear over and over that what’s holding back change is Mike Riley’s 10, 20, infinity year contract. But even before that contract was signed, the donors would balk at the idea of change. So I DO NOT believe this is a money issue. Add to that the TV revenue. Bob D constantly talks about money because it’s in his interest to make fans believe there’s a revenue problem. That he and his cronies are the best we can do under such a tight budget. Here are budget figures from 2013. These will increase dramatically over the next four years as the TV deal is back-loaded. Again, the money is there. By coaching standards, Riley should have been paid more the past decade. The buyout could be viewed as fair pay for those years, if people need to rationalize it.

From what I remember, the old Pac-10 deal under Tom Hansen was 40 million total with big market teams getting larger percentages. Okay, under that paradigm Bob D can complain about money. But if he can’t make things work with the current arrangement, then it’s yet another Bob D incompetency. By crying about revenue, he only further exposes his ineptitude.

Back to the original point: living in fear is no way to live. Risk carries no guarantee, but there becomes a point where the risk-reward curve gets skewed in one’s favor, and I think as a fanbase we are at that point. We’ve argued back an forth for years, and it is quite clear after a decade plus of this coach that he is not going to “take the next step”. This is indisputable as far as I’m concerned. If we take a shot at a young coach or a bigger name and it failed, would anyone miss this current regime? The current “mediocrity”. I wouldn’t. We know how this story ends. There is zero excitement, and whenever Riley does just enough to garner excitement, he subsequently lays a massive, ostrich-sized egg.

Donors: not to be a hackneyed ass, but there is nothing to fear but fear itself. Cut this regime loose. You have maverick spirit somewhere inside. Rekindle it!

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  • Beavblazer Beavblazer says:
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    Is there a list of OSU’s biggest donors that’s available to the public? I’m assuming the Reser family is still up towards the top of that list. With Al Reser gone, it makes you wonder if his legacy continues to contribute money without a voice? Does his family have a voice in how that money get’s allocated to the school? Who else has influence?

  • Beavblazer Beavblazer says:
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    By the way, just saw the UW game has been set for 7:30PM again, on ESPN2.
    Another late start means I will not be going to this game. It’s not worth my time anymore and my daughter can’t be out as late as we arrive home from those games. The school sent a survey recently asking what you do and don’t like about being a season ticket holder. One point I made is the late start times affect my ability to take my kid to the games. Kids are the future fan base of this team. You’d think they’d work to have more mid day games to help build for the future.

    • Whiskey soaked napkins says:
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      Welcome to the tv revenue world. OSU doesn’t set the start times for the games and I doubt their input is even considered

      • angry angry says:
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        Yeah, these teams are all owned. Some more than others, but they’re all owned.

    • Numbers says:
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      The brilliant scheduling of a status quo idiot.

    • bendbeaver bendbeaver says:
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      The Purdue AD is so cheap, they don’t even have lights. They do bring in temp lights for one game every year or two. It seems like way more people want night games there and everyone is more rowdy. Perspective, I guess.

      • Beavergopher Beavergopher says:
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        This year they should play at night, with no lights, so the fans don’t have to watch. Rough year Bend!
        We are having the opposite problem at Minnesota, 11:00 am starts. Puts a damper on tailgating.
        A couple night games a year are great.

  • silverstream055 silverstream055 says:
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    To fix this mess, it is essential that BDC be the first to go.

    Ed Ray needs to “persuade” BDC to retire asap, and then to hire and give free rein to a new, young, aggressive AD who is empowered to analyze and make the necessary changes to the OSU football, basketball, and marketing programs.

    To Ed Ray — in the unlikely event that you are reading this — please, whatever happens, don’t empower BDC to inflict more long-lasting damage on OSU. To be specific, don’t let BDC choose our next football or basketball (or baseball) coaches. That would be beyond stupid (and beyond depressing).

    • angry angry says:
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      Would Bob D do the calculations to determine if there’s enough revenue to buy out Bob D?

      If so, that might be the first good use of his salary.

  • ObjCritic says:
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    Change will not be managed. OSU will continue to be reactive. It’s clear that BDC needs to go. I’m skeptical that anyone is going to fire him while he has Parkinson’s. I’m guessing when it progresses far enough they’ll ask him to step down, or he’ll offer to, and they’ll find a “cost effective” replacement.

    OT: Now that the re-beaved logo looks like a cardinal, think the black jersey would look good with the white pants and white helmet? Works pretty well for the Az Cardinals…

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/gameflash/2013/11/10/5511/index.html#photos

    • Beavergopher Beavergopher says:
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      They should send all black and orange uni’s to the Philippines to clothe the homeless. Keep the white ones and start over. Re-ReBeav.

  • FireBDCNow says:
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    A caller on the Joe Beaver show laid into BDC and said their is an upswell forming for his removal. Even mention of possible picketing to fire BDC. Basketball being at an all-time low and horrible mismanagement of long-term contracts were highlighted. That was great to hear. This is the most united I have seen Oregon State fans who are tired of the dysfunction in OSU Athletics and think the AD is the #1 problem. Couldn’t agree more that BDC must go first because it would be a disaster to have him leading the decision on the next men’s hoops coach.

    Unfortunately, even though there are also problems with Riley, the worst is the duration aspect of being stuck with the status quo. Best focus though is to get BDC removed first and foremost and then the Robinson situation and possible end of his era can be analyzed by others.

  • Beavblazer Beavblazer says:
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    Just saw a tweet that Doctor Delete will be red-shirting this year and be back for next season.

    Beavs aren’t losing a ton of depth this year, other than 3 O-linemen (Andrews/Enger/Phillip), Rashad Reynolds-DB, Cummings-WR, Rosa/Braun at DT

    There’s a ton of depth coming back this year as long as the possible early draft entrants don’t go. The Non-Con schedule is weak, with PSU, Hawaii and SDSU.

    Is next year the year the Beavs rise?

    • Dwill03 Dwill03 says:
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      Personally, I’ve had 2014 circled as “the year” since Mannion’s freshman campaign. Seemed like if the stars were going to align for Riley, it would be then. Weak schedule, Ducks at home (with Super Mario in the NFL). Other then Reynolds, it seems we have better talent for every position, and hopefully Hunt is able to bridge the gap quickly.

      If this Grimble kid is legit, I think Peko is still working towards enrollment and with the other 2 JC’s improving we’ll be in better shape at tackle then we’ve been in a long time. Isaac’s OL class + Harlow should provide good to great blocking. It’s basically 2014 or bust. If we can’t get it done next year, I might finally quit blaming assistants and exit the Riley train.

      • Numbers says:
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        Sounds great in theory, but the sad reality will be that these improved defensive players will continue to look slow with poor fundamentals, and this continues because the scheme is too complicated as there is no time for deep thought on today’s college football field.

        • Dwill03 Dwill03 says:
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          We’ll basically know by the time fall camp rolls around (hopefully as early as spring.) It sounds like Riley is realizing that you can’t hold up in practice for fear of injury, because it makes for a soft/slow to react team. If they have full/real camps then outlook should be good. We probably would’ve been better off with younger guys who are at least playing fast and used to hitting filling in for injured vets, then vets who aren’t prepared due to apathy in practice.

          • Numbers says:
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            Or maybe the scheme is too darn complicated and needs to be changed. These caliber players don’t fit that caliber scheme.

    • alex says:
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      Personally I think losing those 3 O linemen will be crippling, especially given poor depth at the position and our inability to find a run game…

      • Beavergopher Beavergopher says:
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        Unfortunately, I tend to agree. This is the year we should have had a dominant running game with all the experience on the line. Cav is not getting it done.

    • osbeavs says:
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      Don’t count out losing to PSU. Nigel Burton has been building a decent team up there and he is a former Riley staff member. Is PSU the third FCS member to down OSU?

  • Whiskey soaked napkins says:
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    I wouldn’t bet the farm on that with Riley and his Prius clown car assistants

  • FedUpBeav says:
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    Great stat is if Riley loses his last 3 games this yesr he will be only be 1 game above .500 in Pac-10/12 play over his career at like 57-56. This could go to a losing conference record by early next season. This stat with the fact that 17 of 29 OSU coaches have had winning records means 59% have been able to be around Riley’s win percentage or better. Dispels the myth and false fear that no one else can do it here.

    The bad stretch was just a few bad coaches in a row but most have had much better success at OSU. Very different also as Angry points out with new Pac-12 TV deal terms with equal distribution. Odds say that we are as likely as not to find another coach who could perform similarly or better.

    That said order of importance:
    1) BDC resign or be fired (critical)
    2) New AD resolve Robinson fate and pick new hoops coach
    3) New AD be more involved with football direction including marketing and possible new coordinators or coach if goals not met or losses increase

    • mckalk says:
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      Not to mention the 85 scholarship limit that went into effect around ’94, within 5 years of that the Beavs became semi-competitive.

      • Numbers says:
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        Extremely good point that not many recognize when reflecting on the 28years

      • angry angry says:
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        1992. It was reduced to 95 in the 70’s and they still sucked for 20 more years. Did 10 scholarships make the difference?

  • wannabeav says:
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    I really like Fedup’s analysis. There’s some solid research there. BDC could be facing the perfect storm over the next few weeks. Imagine if the Beavs lose to Portland and then the football squad faces three straight blow out losses (which is possible).

    The only insight I could propose to offer on the revenue side is that OSU leveraged a lot of debt to engage in the some of the recent facility improvements so the new money is paying off old stuff rather than being available for new buys (or buy-outs).

  • alex says:
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    Angry, +1 for the post. I have been thinking this every since the new TV contract went through. BDC talks like the TV revenue doesn’t exist. There’s been a paradigm shift that he’s seemingly refusing to acknowledge.

    And I firmly believe that paying down dept while the two big money sports circle the drain is not only asinine but will cost the university untold sums in the long run.

    The arms race is on and we’re buying new mattresses under which to stash the cash.

    • angry angry says:
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      I agree, with low interest rates, now is the time to take on new debt. He should not be paying anything back, yet he said the plan is to pay off large chunks over the next few years…

      He should try to restructure that debt or get a lower, fixed rate.

      Any debt taken out right now will never be repaid, as we are in the final leg of a 100 year debt super cycle. Bob D is clueless.

    • BeavGirl BeavGirl says:
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      I agree, this post pretty much articulated what I have been thinking for months. Good post, AB

  • osbeavs says:
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    Angry, I agree with your points wholeheartedly but I got a sense of concern looking over the figures you posted. OSU takes the largest school dollar amount under “school contribution”. I wonder if that hampers our athletic department budget significantly as OSU would probably like that number to decrease. I think that could be the source of our financial pressure. That said, BDC needs to go. We need a new AD who stops complaining and fixes the check book.

    • Numbers says:
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      You’re seeing the effect of the poor AD. Additional money would exist if BDC had created paths for a higher standard.

  • ObjCritic says:
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    Don’t worry about ASU, Banker has watched the OSU@Utah game 5 times recently. And also, the Beavs are focusing on taking the proper “ankles:”

    “The Beavers, who average a middling two sacks per game, hope to follow a similar template. So Seumalo and Bray are revisiting fundamentals this week. They’re noting how to avoid getting knocked out of pass rushing lanes. They’re pinpointing the proper ankles to take on tackles. ”

    Turns out they’ve been pinpointing the improper ankles, which explains all the misses.

    Only in an OSU article…

    At least Banker is trying to figure out how to stop mobile qbs. Progress, right?

    http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2013/11/oregon_state_football_in_taylo.html

    • oneoldbeav says:
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      Connor’s piece was updated ten minutes after ObjC’s comment here. No obvious reason other than to suppose Connor is keeping up with AB, or maybe just a bit slow to do his proofreading.

  • mckalk says:
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    Regarding some of BDC’s decisions…..I am also wondering if any basketball coach of a “power conference” has ever been rewarded with a contract extension when finishing below .500 in league play?

    And then Riley’s “go to a bowl get another year” is ridiculous considering how low the bar has been set in the last 15 years to have a team bowl eligible. In theory (and it may happen this year), Riley could get a one year extension for going 6-7.

    These contract decisions must be based on fear.

    • angry angry says:
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      There’s a lot of fear around the program, from the AD to the fans. Just for different reasons…

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