11.Nov.2009 Washington @ Oregon State & Bowl Discussions

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Let me first say that I’m psyched for this game for two reasons:

1. I’m going to it.

2. An outside shot at the Rose Bowl is on the line every week from this point forward.

Assuming the Beavs handle both Washington schools, fans need to root for:

a. 2 Arizona losses

b. 1 USC loss

c. Win out and beat Oregon

The fewer of those things that happen, the less likely the Beavers earn a top tier bowl (if they don’t land in at least the Holiday Bowl, they likely drop to the Las Vegas Bowl since the Sun took them last year).

As far as this weeks’ game and opponent, I like the Beavers in this game, but the -11 line is too much. We’re likely looking at a 28-24 type affair. The defense is much improved since transitioning to the lineup we all craved (i.e. LaGrone, Miller), but personally I’m not ready to anoint their arrival as a group we can count on down in and down out. Their susceptibility to blowing assignments and giving up the big play is still omnipresent.

The Beavers have the best pass offense in the conference, and Washington is 9th in defending the pass. This screams a big day for Canfield, but weather looks to be a mitigating factor. Right now the forecast is Wed-Friday rain, tapering off Saturday (30% chance of rain). High temperature for gameday is 48 degress. Those are not ideal passing conditions, so expect Quiz to get the rock often and turn this into a ball control, time of possession game rather than an aerial assault.

Jake Locker is 2nd in the league in passing behind only Canfield and we’ve seen his running ability for years now, so expect the guy to make some plays and keep his team in the game. In the end, I think the Beavers ride their wave of new-found confidence and build upon it by winning a close one. And building upon confidence and refining execution are the most important tasks at this point in the season with a deadly Oregon squad looming.

As noted, Beavers 28 Washingon 24

Bring the rain gear and load a fresh battery in the pacemaker.

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  • JackBeav says:
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    It screams a big day for everyone. Nick Holt was pulling his hair out last year against us, and it will happen again Saturday. Our D is playing well, and many believe Locker is gimpy enough to be stuck in a collapsing pocket all day. He may be the best walk-on QB in the country, but he’s the least of UW’s injury problems.

    I’d be surprised to see UW score more than 13 and equally surprised to see us score less than 35. Because I’ve been a Beavs fan since the early 70’s, I am prepared to be surprised.

    And we won’t have to worry about Oregon after a few years. I’m sure they will have some good years, but team chemistry has gone downhill in the last year. Entitlement replaces the family atmosphere, and they don’t have the horses to be entitled in the Pac 10. I think it’s telling that a team who can’t run between the tackles also can’t stop it.

  • Beavker Beavker says:
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    This is one of those games that can be telling. After a nice Cal win, and the finish line in sight, can they continue to grow defensively and hone themselves offensively (especially the O line), and keep scoring touchdowns by executing better and better.

    I don’t expect a blow out, but I’d like to see, at home, on Dad’s weekend after a big road win…a nice clean sound beating where the Huskies don’t ever really even sniff the victory after the first Quarter…a 35-13 game or something. Then you pound Wazzu as you should, even in Pullman in the cold with the Ducks on the horizon.

    Hopefully most of the things that need to fall into place with AZ, USC hold true…and I feel that some will (USC and AZ playing each other ensures that someone bites it).

    Without a playoff, getting these teams in position for a great final weekend of Pac 10 football (5 teams, vying for a Rose Bowl bid, maybe even 4 on the final week) this is what we need.

  • Beavocalypse says:
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    This should be an interesting game. I’m going to be there and screaming my head off.

    This will be the game that will tell me if our defense is “there”. Washington is the last challenge we have until the Ducks, and if we can’t stop Locker…then we can forget about stopping Masoli because honestly Masoli is a much better QB.

    And if our offense can’t put up a good number of points against the Huskies then we might as well forget the Oregon game because we need our offense to be ready for a shoot out.

    If Quiz can’t bounce back in the next two games and get some sickhouse yardage on either Washington and WSU, then I don’t see us pulling a Stanford on the Duckies.

    HOWEVER-

    I see these things coming together and it will all start with the game on Saturday. And we’ll have ourselves a nice little march to another very important Civil War

  • Jack Mehoffer says:
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    Oh yeah, I’m sure you’ll be there, like you were at all those practices over the summer. Why don’t you post some pictures this time to prove it.

  • OS_Beaver says:
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    Go Beavs. Go out on a STRONG note Canfield. You have become a very good quarterback. Quizz needs two solid games against the Washington schools and he will probably be one of 3 finalists for the Doak Walker Ward come Nov. 23. This will propel him to a legit shot at the Heisman next year. James was a major stud last year against the Huskies. GO BEAVS and lets all support the guys on Senior Day!

  • Diggs says:
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    I too hope Canfield gets to go out on a great note (as well as other seniors), at very least; at home. Quizz and others, big day hopefully as well. Important game…Can’t wait, let’s enjoy Saturday, have fun, and be loud!

  • G Joubert says:
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    Beavers 28 Washingon 24

    With the possible exception of them somehow managing to take Notre Dame into OT before losing to them, Washington has been a poor road team this year. Other road losses to Stanford, UCLA, and Arizona State. Their “big” wins (USC and Arizona) were at home. FWIW. OSU, OTOH, hasn’t been that good at home.

    Arizona will lose twice more this year, and the Beavs may win the CW, but USC won’t lose again, and they will be going to the Rose Bowl.

    • G Joubert says:
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      So much for that theory. And it goes down as a good thing.

      • angrybeaver says:
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        Yeah, I wasn’t sure why you said USC wouldn’t lose since they’ve been vulnerable all year.

        My prediction was way too close. Beavs D has arrived. That’s what prevented me from picking the blowout, but I’m skeptically sold for now.

  • OS_Beaver says:
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    VOTE QUIZZ 4 HEISMAN!!
    http://promo.espn.go.com/espn/contests/theheismanvote/2009/
    You can vote everyday and it can earn a real vote. Help him pass Daryll Clark of Penn State! Keep up the votes. We passed Kellen Moore solidly recently and we can get Clark very soon and Tony Pike in 5 days or so if we push! He is bound to play well against UW and WSU and Doak Walker finalists are selected on Nov. 23. GO BEAVS!!

  • blakesgotanewface says:
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    Hey Angry, you just got Jacquizzed on!

  • Anonymous says:
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    Appearantly an overly pessimistic view of the Beavers, eh Angry? Nice win today in dominating fasion!

    • Diggs says:
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      Hey, he’ll admit if he’s ever wrong! And be glad in it too (if we win). I myself was expecting a closer game too, but not for a second will I be anything but stoked we took it to ’em.

      • angrybeaver says:
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        Yeah I did not expect a blowout, but glad we got one. I wouldn’t say “overly pessimistic” since I did predict a win.

        My concern was the defense…the big play has been cut down recently but it seemed omnipresent. I’m afraid to have confidence in the D even still, but I suppose I have to have blind faith at this point after two solid efforts and just hope for the best vs Oregon.

  • beavers4life says:
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    I think Oregon will beat Arizona in the desert next week and Oregon State will focus hard on beating Oregon’s Spread Offense. It will be an equal prep time for both teams and it will be a slight home field advantage to the Ucks, but I think the Beavs will take it to them since the Rose Bowl will be on the line come Civil War. OSU better show up to play defensively like they did against UW today and offensively like they have the past 7 games! GO BEAVS!!!

    Not predicting the score, but I am predicting a Beaver win come Civil War and we go to the Rose Bowl or Holiday Bowl. One of the two!

  • JackBeav says:
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    A coaching friend of mine is convinced that the spread can be beaten by blowing up the strong side of the formation. He’s sure that if a DT lines up just outside the TE that the TE can be driven to the point of exchange, forcing the play to the weak side or deep to the outside. If the weak side DE knows that the RB is kicked to the sideline on the strong side, he can save a jog and wait in the void on the weak side should the QB decide to keep. The whole option idea is kind of off. The QB knows what he wants to do at the snap. If the weak side DE stays instead of scraping the line, then the ‘read’ will always be a hand-off… right? Wrong. In tonight’s game, Masoli kept even though the DE stayed in the hole. He pulled up and threw a poor pass over the seam, and he walked off the field ‘discussing’ the play with Kelly.

    I think my friend might be right. An in-line TE has no right to be released, and he wouldn’t have a chance against a DT.

    If only it was that easy.

    • OSBeavs says:
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      Not a bad scheme but you have to have a fast DT or DE that knows when to get off his bull rush to make the tackle. I still think that the spread that Oregon runs is an option though and he has to make a read. It depends on the play which player he reads. Either way he reads either end of the line. If our DE’s don’t pursue hard down the line but stay home then we can take away their run scheme. Their tackles aren’t that great and they don’t have a great blocking TE at Oregon, we should be able to own the line of scrimmage. If we execute a solid defensive scheme I don’t think we will be getting many sacks because our DE’s will have to stay home for off tackle runs and screens.

    • angrybeaver says:
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      Good post.

      Your friend’s theory of blowing up the strong side/TE not only reduces the possible read options, but also takes away the pass because Masoli is only accurate to the TE. If said TE is out of the play I’d take my chances of Masoli throwing to the outside and having reduced possibilities (i.e you know it’s going weakside) with the read option.

      Does your friend play chess? It reminds me of taking the King’s G7 pawn by sacrificing a bishop after an E5 opening. Blow up that entire side of the board, reduce the ability to Castle, and have the king on the run right out of the gate.

  • angrybeaver says:
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    I’m sure Banker is studying the Boise State film. I’m not sure what Boise State’s defensive scheme was in that game because I simply didn’t pay attention to that, but I’m really curious to take a look at it now. Anyone remember what they did? If the Civil War is for the Rose Bowl (and I have to think Arizona will lose one remaining game), I’m sure Gameday will be in Autzen again and we’ll see plenty of that Boise film in pre-game analysis. This is one of the best finishes possible, and if the Beavers get a shot at redemption (from last year) they better seize it.

    • jtlight says:
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      Boise packed the box, and shut down the basic spread option plays. Oregon made absolutely no adjustments in the game. They didn’t swing it out or work the ball outside on sweeps (the one that LMJ did run went for 10 yards before he was even touched).

      Since that game, esp. the Cal game, Oregon adjusted, and is spreading the field horizontally like they didn’t do against BSU. Oregon has started to swing the ball out to receivers A LOT. If a receiver doesn’t have a corner on him close, Masoli will swing the ball out and let the receiver take 5-10 yards.

  • beavers4life says:
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    Angry,

    The winner of the CW will go to the Rose Bowl! This years Rivalry game will be the biggest stakes to play for ever unless it was for the National Title Game…until that day comes…This will be the biggest Rivalry game of the year in College Football!

  • beavers4life says:
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    Angry,

    Just looked up on ESPN360 archived games and what BSU did to Oregon is really simple:

    1) 4 man front 3 linebackers(OSU’s Defense)
    2) The had the strong side DE bull rush the TE and keep contain and watch Masoli or Blount.
    3) The weak side DE bull rushed the Tackle and tried to drive him into Masoli every play and then try to make the tackle when the runner came his way.
    4) had the MLB spy Masoli and the weak side LB spy Blount.
    5) They only rushed the 4 down lineman first so LB can defend pass and had the LB’s delay blitz if they saw pass.

    That’s about all I saw them do the whole time Oregon had the ball up to the middle of the 3rd quarter. then I lost interest.

    I’m curious to see how Stanford held Oregon’s offense at Bay and was able to score that much on them.

    • OSBeavs says:
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      Stanford didn’t really hold Oregon’s offense at bay, it was a shootout. I think Stanford’s biggest problem is that they are slow on D. We have good speed to match Oregon and I like what you wrote about Boise’s scheme. That scheme seems like the way to go, hopefully we execute that and get a huge win at Autzen. Anyone else going to Autzen, I am gunna try to go.

      • Diggs says:
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        Sadly, no. But i’d say if you have the chance, totally seize it!

    • angrybeaver says:
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      I also recall Oregon passing it a lot and first (rather than run first philosophy, which they have done since that game). Belloti was on TV late in that game saying they were passing too much and needed to run? Also, James is more explosive than Blount, so that makes Oregon tougher to defend now.

      • JackBeav says:
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        I don’t know that Faber College’s problem was their play selection. Boise State is not a fun place to play, and we know it from experience. Plus… the first game’s opposition is giving them weeks of preparation for one game.

        The one thing Boise State did was to fill voids that Masoli expected to be open. Those who over-pursue can expect to see poor results against this team.

        Interesingly… Masoli holds the ball for a long time. When he runs, it’s an immediate take to the weak side, or a break through the hole left by a releasing TE and slot. When he is rushed to throw, the ball has a tendency to float.

  • blakesgotanewface says:
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    Did you see this goon knock over the cameraman after the Colts stuck it to the Pats?

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