09.Mar.2015 Beavs Chances in the Pac-12 Tournament

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Curious to hear opinions on how far the Beavs will go. I think they will beat CO, then the Oregon game is tough but winnable. IMO the Beavs have the easiest path of any lower seed.  The right side of the bracket kind of sucks. Utah and Oregon are both way overrated.

Here’s the bracket.

I think UCLA or ASU can upset Arizona, too, which could make this thing wide open. I’m cautiously optimistic they can make this interesting. I’m going bold here and saying they beat CO and Oregon. As soon as people buy in to the Cinderella story (and thus puts pressure on them), they lose to Utah/Stanford.

 

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  • JockItch JockItch says:
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    First!!!

    • scotty says:
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      You might want to do something about that.

  • Beavblazer Beavblazer says:
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    I dont see us beating Colorado even. Season ends Wednesday

  • HireHowland says:
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    Think team will be lucky to beat Colorado. If they do it ends there. They say it is hard to beat the same team 3 times in a row but I am 96% certain that is exactly what will happen if the Ducks and Beavers meet again. This team had the aura and was pacing about as goid as the 89-90 season there for awhile but now they lack the killer instinct. GP2 is a great player but the one thing his dad possessed in comparison was making damn sure he came out the winner as much as possible. Next year I think GP2 will get more of that and finish his OSU legacy in fine fashion.

    • whiskey soaked napkins whiskey soaked napkins says:
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      How’d GP fare in that 1990 conference tourney?

      • Jack says:
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        He was so bad, we didn’t have another Pac Tourney for 12 years.

  • angry angry says:
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    The right side of the bracket is so easy. There’s hardly any difference between any of these teams. I think this thing is wide open. I think UCLA is going to win the entire thing.

    • Whiskey Soaked Napkins Whiskey Soaked Napkins says:
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      UCLA will lose to ASU. If anyone beats Arizona it will be the sun devils. Beavs will beat Colorado. After that you got me.

      • angry angry says:
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        What does Arizona have to play for? a 1 seed vs a 2 in the ncaa? I don’t see the motivation. UCLA is dangerous. ASU kind of sucks.

        • Whiskey Soaked Napkins Whiskey Soaked Napkins says:
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          ASU kind of sucks? They started 0-4, then went 10-4. I’d say they don’t suck. They also were only one of two teams to beat Arizona

          • angry angry says:
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            I’m not basing it off record. A team can be worse than their record, just like a team can be better than their record. When I watched ASU I wasn’t impressed at all, granted, just vs the Beavs.

          • Whiskey Soaked Napkins Whiskey Soaked Napkins says:
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            Personally, I hope UCLA does well enough to get off the bubble and into the ncaa tournament. Same goes for Stanford as long as it isn’t at the beavs expense. Right now the pac-12 is looking like a 3 bid league. ASU, Cal and the two mentioned above are all NIT teams unless they do some damage in Vegas. That’s bad news for the beavs as there’s no way the NIT would take 5 teams from the pac-12. But first things first, beat the Buffs

          • Jameis Winston Jameis Winston says:
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            check that. Cal isn’t going anywhere unless they do some damage in Vegas as well

  • scotty says:
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    One-and-done. Still a good year.

  • cj cj says:
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    As much as I hate to say it the Beavs are one and done & the Ducks win the tourney. They are the team to beat now looking at the last 10 games for all the teams. And it really SUCKS!

    • whiskey soaked napkins whiskey soaked napkins says:
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      Only way Oregon wins the tourney is if someone beats Arizona first. Oregon won’t beat them

      • cj cj says:
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        We will see…

        • Whiskey Soaked Napkins Whiskey Soaked Napkins says:
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          We’ve seen it twice already. And it wasn’t pretty for the ducks.

          • cj cj says:
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            I hope you’re right and I’m way wrong. But that’s the way I see it it.

          • cj cj says:
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            Sorry, had the hiccups…

          • Jack says:
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            Them’s some pretty good psychedelics there. I’m guessing they ain’t cheap.

  • helmsley says:
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    If anyone has an interest in watching Tres Tinkle play in a game or two, http://www.mhsa.org will be streaming the Montana AA tournaments – costs but not much.

  • beaverkman beaverkman says:
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    Granted that they have had a week off, I think they beat Colorado,who doesn’t look good to me. Although, I think the teams are fairly even, but OSU plays a little better defense.

    I don’t see them getting past the second round. the rest will help them for the first game,but then they will be playing a team with over a week off so the rest won’t help them in that game and their depth will hurt.

    Any news on Robbins? I take it that he done for the season but I have not heard officially?

    • cj cj says:
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      He hasn’t been practicing with the team so I’m sure he’s done for the foreseeable future. Most likely well in to next season.

      • OSURevival says:
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        Robbins missing all of this season is enough. Hell Blount came back after a blatant hard cold cock to the face just 2 months later. Robbins has almost 9 more months to think about doing things right next season and has already missed 2+ months.

        I just think it is dumb to carry something over after a very long break. He may be fortunate to get another chance but no sense in disrupting another season. Have a good fall practice with your teammates and be ready to do things right from Day 1 next season.

        • Jack says:
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          He can’t third strike means he’s out for one year from the date of that incident. The fourth strike means immediate dismissal.

        • whiskey soaked napkins whiskey soaked napkins says:
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          Junior forward Victor Robbins (10.3 ppg), who was initially suspended 10 games for a violation of athletic department policy, followed by an indefinite suspension after he was cited for driving under the influence last month, is not expected to be with the team in Las Vegas.

          http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/sports/college/oregon-state/2015/03/09/beavers-start-anew-pac-tournament/24665905/

          In other words, he won’t be playing again this season and I’m fairly certain Jack is right. He’s suspended for one year which means he won’t be back until next February at the earliest. Quite honestly, if he’s still on the team next season and has a redshirt available, it might be in his best interest to use it.

          • Jack says:
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            Nope. The rules state he loses one full year of eligibility. We don’t have any Kiko Alonsos according to the way it’s written.
            http://www.osubeavers.com/pdf9/3266808.pdf

            What sucks worse is that when the NCAA administers a test and players pop like Carrington and Ford did after the Rose Bowl, it’s an automatic year suspension on the first positive.

          • Jack says:
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            My bad… Alonso did not redshirt in 2010, I am told. He did lose a full year of eligibility.

          • whiskey soaked napkins whiskey soaked napkins says:
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            I’m fuzzy on the bazillion rules the NCAA has mandated. Although we’re pretty clear on the “do not rape” and “don’t use banned substances”. I think those are pretty clear everywhere but Eugene and maybe Tallahassee

          • Jameis Winston Jameis Winston says:
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            The gal I raped, err had consensual sex with learned a new meaning for the term “tomahawk chop!”

          • cj cj says:
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            Don’t you mean “allegedly” raped?

    • Victor Robbins says:
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      What you wanna know? Still holding out hope for this season but starting to look not good this year. Was thinking Tinkle would just let me play because if my talent alone but no! Too bad cuz we win this whole thing w me on the court!

      I’m hearing this could effect my draft stock so I’m texting the coach that all the time. I’ll be p sad if that’s what happens cause its a misunderstanding and nobody will listen to my side of the story!!

      • whiskey soaked napkins whiskey soaked napkins says:
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        I’m starting to think you suffer from fetal alcohol syndrome

  • beavergopher beavergopher says:
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    You can pretty much bet the farm, house, 401k, and anything that is not bolted down that the Beavs will lose on Wed. as yours truly will be in the house. My presence decreases the odds of a Beaver victory to a virtual impossibility. I apologize for bring my toxic bad luck to bear on the Beavs, but I needed to escape the cold winter. Luck O the Beavergopher, now we have an early spring and a whole week of beautiful weather here in the Twin Cites.

    BTW, any other good recommendations for Vegas? Have not been there for about seven years.

    • whiskey soaked napkins whiskey soaked napkins says:
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      hookers and blow

    • peglegbeaver says:
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      The Rock of Ages show was one of the best I have been too.

    • homefry homefry says:
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      Well for entertainment purposes only…odds to win Pac 12

      AZ 200 TO WIN 100
      UCLA 100 to win 1000
      UT 100 to win 225
      OR 100 to win 1300
      and OSU 100 to win 21500

      • scotty says:
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        If I were a betting man, I’d put money on UCLA and Oregon at those odds

        • Jack says:
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          You can just give me your money.

          Would you want me to tell you that you lose now? Or would you like to see it for yourself?

    • Jack says:
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      Neon Museum, Atomic Blast Museum…

      Las Vegas means the meadows. I found them at the Springs Preserve. It is not on the Strip.

      And go to the gun store and shoot the AR-50.

    • Beavblazer Beavblazer says:
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      I liked Roa, an Italian restaurant at Caesars. It’s higher end but not too stuffy of an atmosphere

      https://www.caesars.com/caesars-palace/restaurants/raos#.VPuRAMXgHa8

  • PdX says:
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    I’ll be in Vegas. How many others going? Funny the only other game I have seen in person this season was the Colorado game at home…

  • Bill says:
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    4 games in four days with a 6 man rotation…. They’ve got a decent chance in the first game with a week’s worth of rest. After that, it’s all over.

    They’ve got to use the grind it out method, long shot clocks, get high percentage looks. Play zone defense where the other team spends half the shot clock passing the pass around the perimeter. No foul trouble.

    It was a good run this year, hopefully they can get one more win.

  • whiskey soaked napkins whiskey soaked napkins says:
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    As for playing in a lower-tier postseason tournament such as the College Basketball Invitational?

    “Most likely for us with what we’re faced with this year, with the lack of bodies and that sort of thing,” Tinkle said, “we’ll never say no to anything, but it would probably (need to be) NIT or NCAA.”

    Kind of a wishy washy answer there coach. Even if it’s the CBI I still wouldn’t mind seeing them play some more and even in person at Gill. I have enjoyed watching these guys play this year and has this beaver fan very optimistic. But I think it should be up to the players to decide. If they’re tired, hurt or beat up and want the season to end, they’ve earned it

    http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/sports/college/oregon-state/2015/03/09/beavers-start-anew-pac-tournament/24665905/

    • Bill says:
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      It’s not worth it. Plus OSU has to pay to host.

      There’s not a whole lot of upside in the tournament with a short bench. They don’t need the experience or to risk major injury.

      • Jameis Winston Jameis Winston says:
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        then don’t host. Unless the cost is higher to travel. Then I would agree and say stay home. Something tells me these guys may be tired but they want to keep playing. Right now they have the Pac-12 tournament in front of them that they are thinking about. Let’s see how they feel about it when it’s all said and done. And who knows? Maybe they’ll surprise expectations in the conference tourney after having a week off.

        • cj cj says:
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          Since we are dreaming or on wacky stuff…

          So they expend all their energy to win the Pac-12 Tournament and have none left for the NCAA?
          They win a couple and make the NIT is a better scenario for grabbing another win IMO.

          CBI – most likely invite, but as noted, has its issues: teams have to pay-to-host (this only works if attendance is good enough to pay back the fee(s)), TV is proprietary (I think- I don’t get it on Dish Net, anyway), it’s a “who cares” tournament. All that said, if the Beavs get selected and decide to participate I will help fill the house.

          I disagree that the CBI banner comes down, it was a huge accomplishment at the time for the program! Coming off a 6-win season the year prior to winning a tournament was something! AND, there’s still room for more sports banners for quite a few more years.

  • cj cj says:
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    Connor says…

    “So first-year head coach Wayne Tinkle says he likely wouldn’t accept a potential CBI invite. If the Beavers earn no other berth, they will begin resting achy muscles. But a shot at the National Invitation Tournament — or even NCAA Tournament, for that matter — has not completely evaporated.”

  • OSU82 says:
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    I kind of see it like others…long rest before Colorado, and they’ve got a decent chance for a win there. 50-50 chance for the win. If its Oregon the next game after that, well I can’t see the Beavs winning that one. So, maybe win the first, then a trip home.

  • GoBeavs90 says:
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    Beavers got a pretty good draw. Teams they match up poorly against are on the other side of the bracket. I think the Beavers beat Colorado and Oregon and advance to the semis. They battle Utah but run out of gas in the 2nd half and come up short. Beavers then get NIT invite

  • rsteve503 rsteve503 says:
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    I think they are worn down. They might be rested enough to get by Colorado, but not to get by Oregon. Might not win any — they all know us by now. But its still a fantastic season…

  • GOBeavers GOBeavers says:
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    Oregon State has narrowed its spring QB competition down to Luke Del Rio, Nick Mitchell and Seth Collins.— Gina Mizell (@ginamizell) March 10, 2015

    • Jack says:
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      WHOA!!!!

      Did not see that one coming.

    • bendbeaver bendbeaver says:
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      I thought people were playing McMaryion up too much.

    • Bill says:
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      I’d expect Kempt and/or Vanderveen to transfer after spring (Kempt more likely since he’s younger) and Sanders to switch positions now.

      Leaves LDR, Mitchell, Collins, McMaryion at QB.

      I still think LDR wins out due to his passing ability. The WRs are much better than the RBs. He should model his game after Andy Dalton when he played at TCU. Operated a spread offense. Not the best runner but he made the right decision of when to run more often than not.

      • Bill says:
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        I think a redshirt year for Collins would be best. He’s listed at 186 pounds. Coming in a a greyshirt, he’ll get 1.5 years to grow before he sees the field.

        I would expect Collins to play at 200-205pds. With the extra weight, his arm should get better and be able to take some hits when running. Should be able to maintain speed. No real rush to put him into games.

      • WFO WFO says:
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        I disagree that the WRs are much better than the RBs.

        There is some quality depth at WR for sure, but Storm, Brown and Haskins are all quality backs. I think Woods has a huge year especially in the short/screen pass game.

  • RanYakumo RanYakumo says:
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    Anyone else love how Oregon State is offering highly valued prospects like Michael Eletise and Theo Howard? Unlike with Riley, it feels like we could actually get those guys.

    • Bill says:
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      It’s early. I would expect them to offer everyone who’s considered a top prospect. Every staff does it. One of the big indicators of how well received the offers are the summer football camps.

      Coaches invite all top prospects to the camps. If top guys show up, it’s a really good sign. Many schools host junior days for top prospects too. Locking up a big time recruit early helps a lot. Kids now want to join up with other top guys at the same school.

      • bendbeaver bendbeaver says:
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        It seems like they’re offering higher ranked guys than Riley did. Not sure if that’s an actual fact, though.

        • beavblazer beavblazer says:
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          Been thinking the same, although I didn’t follow recruiting as closely prior to this year. Seems like the average star rating of the guys being offered currently hover in the high 3* area, with the majority of guys considered 4*. I’m sure the average will drop as guys commit to other schools, but i agree with Ran above, in that it actually feels like they could pull a few of these guys (especially the Poly guys)

          Just getting a few of the 4* players should help with swaying other guys who might be on the fence.

  • cj cj says:
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    Does Sanders go to Vegas or stay for football?

  • beavblazer beavblazer says:
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    A little more from Gina on the QB position. I won’t link the article since it’s O-live

    Andersen, who offers an open-door policy for players who want to discuss their status, said it’s important the other four quarterbacks — junior Brent VanderVeen, sophomore Kyle Kempt, redshirt freshman Marcus McMaryion and redshirt freshman Tanner Sanders — still feel a part of the team. The coach added that

    it’s important to “move forward and help them make the decisions that they want to make for the future.

    In other words….these guys aren’t getting any playing time here, but they’re welcome to hold a clip board……sortof….

    • Bill says:
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      I read that as, you might as well transfer or learn to punt. Or be the best holder.

    • angry angry says:
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      The skeptic in me thinks the Del Rio thing is a gesture because he dad was hanging around. LDR looked as horrible as ever in those youtube practice clips, throwing ints and wobbly passes off the receivers hands. This coming from someone who was once high on him, so it’s not like there is bias. He’s just looked awful every time I’ve seen him, and he can’t run. How is he truly in the mix? Maybe he is, and the limited action doesn’t show the entire LDR picture. I hope that’s the case if he’s truly in the mix.

      • Bill says:
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        During practice this early, I don’t think the QBs aren’t being asked to make plays (ie improvise). I think they are to throw the first read on the play vs a vanilla defense. The playbook is new so I would think they don’t even know the progressions yet.

        Later on, I would expect them to make reads on the defense.

        • GOBeavers GOBeavers says:
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          You’re right. I don’t think they are.

          Del Rio kind of addressed this in the article by Gina Mizell:

          “It doesn’t have to be a touchdown every play. Just get the ball in the playmakers’ hands and let them gain yards. There’s a lot of opportunities to be selfish in this offense, and you can’t do that. You have to just distribute the football and get first downs and score points.”

          http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2015/03/oregon_state_beavers_narrow_qu.html

      • GOBeavers GOBeavers says:
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        Making a determination about Del Rio from less than 10 passes in those videos is probably a stupid thing to do.

      • Beavblazer Beavblazer says:
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        i tend to agree with your skepticism on del Rio being in this group. Hard to cut the kid out when his NFL head coaching dad is standing right next to you on evaluation day. I do think Del Rio can at least scramble enough to pick up a first down from time to time, but still dont think he’ll be the guy. Mama said LDR and Mitchell got the vast majority of the reps in practice today with Mitchell getting the most. Collins was a distant 3rd as far as how often he took snaps.

        She also said Sanders has already moved to WR. 1 down.

      • alex says:
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        Agree completely on the politics of keeping Del Rio in the picture. That was my first thought on the matter.

        In athleticism, Del Rio is probably 6th out of 7 in this group of QBs (behind Kempt). That means he’s got to be significantly ahead in his passing prowess, and I haven’t seen a lot of evidence of that.

        I’m also surprised that Vanderveen is out of the picture so quickly. Scout services listed him as a dual threat QB out of high school, and he’s had a fair amount of experience. Maybe he still can’t throw a spiral LOL.

        • WFO WFO says:
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          I had the same gut feeling re: LDR. Seemed like his dad was hovering around making sure his kid stays in the picture.

          Seems like Andersen should keep Mcmaryion on the roster as depth. QB injury is a very real possibility in this offense.

  • angry angry says:
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    I agree they’ve been on fumes, but I think whereas the season was becoming a grind, this tournament will be rejuvenating. Did anyone hear the CO women’s basketball coach after she beat OSU? Said something like they had to win the tournament because it was their only shot at the NCAA. 9 teams in this Pac-12 tournament are in the same boat, and it puts Arizona, Oregon, Utah with less incentive and a big x on their backs. It’s why I think UCLA wins it, but I think the Beavs can win two for that reason, too.

    • Bill says:
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      Can’t see them winning two unless the first game is an under 50 score or a runaway blowout to save their legs.

      Doubt the other teams will slack. They want the highest seed into the tourney they can get. Don’t want to get stuck with an 8/9 and play a #1 in the second round. AZ could capture a #1 seed with a tourney victory and some help.

  • beavblazer beavblazer says:
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    Another Vegas spot. I’ve heard it was cool but never been there. Capo’s Speakeasy/Steakhouse

    http://www.caposrestaurant.com/index.html

    Sounds like the door isn’t obvious, and you need to have a password to get in, like prohibition era speakeasys. Inside looks like a throwback to the days when the mob ran Vegas.

    If any of you go(or have been), would like to hear your review

  • beaverkman beaverkman says:
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    So is Tinkle starting the walkons again for the Pac12 tourney? Saw tweet with them doing the presser?
    How is this a good idea?

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