7pm on Pac-12
To say FTD!
FIRST to say Go Beavs! Kick quack ass!
dammit it’s been that kind of day 🙁
I’m going to try my wearing my lucky shirt.
gopher it *rimshot groan*
I think we can stomach that better than you wearing your lucky thong
Olaf to start with Tinkle, Eubanks, GP2, and Duvivier
Have a feeling this will be an ugly game. We’ll know at the 5 minute mark who is probably going to win. Paging that AB dork who gets mad about that.
Okay 5 minute mark. Oregon is likely going to win (90%). More aggressive team, want it more, driving, whereas the Beavs are passing up open looks and look like deer in headlights.
You’re still mad about that? That’s kind of sad that you’re so immature.
It also saddens me that you would rather speak in simplistic platitudes and revel in your ignorance of basketball tactics than take the time to broaden your knowledge and provide actual analysis that I think many readers here would really appreciate.
But whatever, it’s your blog I guess.
I’m not mad. I’m pointing out how wrong you are.
The two games since my “simplistic platitudes” have been 100% correct. I’m not sure you even understand what a platitude is. I’d like to see you quote ESPN saying anything I said..i.e. what you’re claiming is an ESPN level platitude.
Are you sure about that? You sure seem to be holding a grudge against me right now.
A two game sample size is nothing in terms of analytics. Anyone can find two games where the evidence seems to fit the conclusion and claim that therefore their claim is correct. I would be much more willing to believe your claim if you provided at least two full seasons of football/basketball where your claim held true for 90% of all the games in those seasons. Obviously, effort is something that can’t be perfectly measured by statistics, so let’s rephrase a bit:
“If a team is ahead by the first five minutes of a game, they will win the game 90% of the time”
Find two seasons worth of evidence where that held true for football or basketball, and I would be more receptive to your argument.
As for ESPN, they say things like “The other team wanted it more” all the time, especially on the pundit shows like First Take. In the case of the NBA, they said it enough about the 2011-2012 finals to make NBA owner Mark Cuban call them out on it.
Video where he did it:
Printed quote here:
That’s not what I said. I said that in the first five minutes, I can tell with 90% accuracy who is going to win a basketball game. You can’t even get the sentiment right. Error in your favor, huh?
What I said, is that with baseball, I can tell which pitcher is throwing better, and therefore who will win the game. In football, I can tell which line is better, and therefore who will win the game. If you can’t do this and need nerd stats to tell you what your eyes should, it’s a you problem. Maybe work on your observation skills instead of your analytics. I have both, but I don’t need analytics since I’m not writing a scientific paper to be judged by nerds. What’s amazing is you’re criticizing observation, as if it has no merit, yet observation is the basis of all science and analytics. Take out your beef with ESPN on the ESPN forums. What I said had nothing to do with ESPN, the lame ass media, or platitudes.
Your two years (actually 8 years) of data are in the comment sections of the game threads. BTW, I have talked tactics many many times over the years.
By the way, you’re making an assumption that I haven’t used analytics or any metrics. I have, just internally via observation over decades of watching sports, all stored in the internal database. I took college statistics. I got a 100%; not one question wrong the entire term. If you want, send me your email, and I’ll send you the grade. I understand stats, which is precisely why I give them little weight. I’ll take my own observation and internal analytics/reasoning over a statistic any day. Stats don’t tell stories. Watching astutely tells a story.
I’m a biologist. I know your type…worked with plenty. The dorks who want a stat to backup everything so they can pretend they’re smart and actually know something. That’s why I called you a dork. You are a huge dork. Maybe you should read OSUPROF’s blog. That seems more up your alley. The guy is wrong almost always, but hey, he has the stats to back it up.
Of course that’s not exactly what you said, nor is your second paragraph quite what you said either. What you said was as follows:
“I feel like 90% of games in all sports are over in the first five minutes. In football, just watch the trenches. If one team is dominating, they will win. If it’s even there, whoever has the better QB wins. In hoops, it’s usually who is more intense. In baseball, watch the starting pitchers’ 1st inning — whoever throws the ball better will win. These things all determine the outcome early on 90% of the time. ”
What I did was modify your original claim into something that can be checked out with actual data to see if there actually is a correlation between performance in the first five minutes and the end result of the game. Your original claim is just derived from personal experience, which can be highly deceiving (as can stats, for that matter). The brain has a very selective memory that often twists experiences through the lens of our own biases and past experiences. There are even experiments where people have had their brains tricked into remembering something that never even occurred in the past.
As for your data, are you claiming that you have sucessfully predicted the end result of 90% of Beaver basketball, football, etc. games? If so, I find that hard to believe.
I’m criticizing observation not because it’s useless, but because observation by itself doesn’t tell the whole story, just like stats by themselves don’t tell the whole story. Right now, you seem to be overly reliant on observation without taking stats into account. The only way you get the whole picture is if you take both fully into account. Otherwise, you’ll come to incomplete or bad conclusions.
I’ve believe you have my email, so you’re welcome to send me your grade if you wish.
It’s interesting to hear you’re a biologist, and that you think I’m some huge dork. Sadly, I’m not some guy who needs the percent probability of a “yes” before I ask a girl out on a date lol.
I will fully admit I’m a skeptic though, and one of the most valuable lessons I’ve learned in my (admittedly short) life so far is to not take things at face value just because someone says it’s that way. It’s not about sounding smart; it’s about finding the truth, which isn’t always just from one’s personal experiences or just from stats. If you’ve taken as much stats as you say you have, you’re surely familiar with the following quote from William Edwards Deming:
“In God we trust; all others must bring data.”
You’ve made a very successful blog, and despite some of the words we’ve exchanged, I do still think you’ve done a great job with it for the most part. I just can’t accept “because I said so” as the sole explanation for why something is or isn’t correct, especially someone I’ve never met on the internet. I need something more, whether it’s numbers or other people chiming in and saying that their personal experiences match yours.
(BTW, I have never heard of OSUPROF’s blog, and I can’t seem to find it on Google. Link me?)
I specifically said 90% and left that 10% because what I said is not always the case!
I’m not saying 90% of my pregame predictions are correct, but yes, after watching the things I mentioned, the rate is probably that high — that’s why Vegas doesn’t let you bet on games once they start.
The mind is extremely flawed. It’s why I said AFTER seeing some of the game you can make a highly accurate prediction. Beforehand it’s much harder and requires much more analysis. I never said “because I said so”; not sure I even implied it.
@RanYakumo re the OSUprof blog:
MD passes on a wide open 3 to throw the ball to Oregon. Good job.
Walton’s enthusiasm and hyperbole crack me up
What’s with the slow down offense again? Pass it around until 5 seconds and then hope for the best?
Tres with a nice block
Bill Walton is just brutal to listen to.
Some bullshit calls going against the Beavs early. Guess Phil Knight has made it clear what seeding he wants the Quacks to have.
Two bad calls so far, but Beavs have thrown the ball away twice and passed up a wide open look. Deer in headlights, so refs will treat them like so.
so its pretty obvious that its us against Uo and the refs. Man these calls are one-sided!
Refs just call a foul on Oregon that’s clearly a clean block.
Underneath guy got Tres with the body which is always a little dangerous and these idiot refs did not see that, so I’m ok with that foul of course! Three calls against the Beavs have been ticky-tack so far.
Yes another bad call. But Eubanks foul , he was getting held actually by Bocher. GP2’s second foul after the lob was a no call, and Duvivier’s first foul was a ticky-tack call 30 feet from the basket that provided no advantage. Now you have to put GP2 on the bench, just changes the complex of the game and its unnecessary.
Just drive to the rack and these refs will blow a whistle.. Hope we get the memo. Pathetic officiating so far garbage touch fouls on both sides
100% Take what the officials will give you
Really? The Ducks in the bonus with more than 12 minutes in the half?
That call was literally after the ball was through the hoop?
Beavs really have nobody who can score inside. Jacking up 3s is an awful offensive approach. Can’t rebound. I’m not sure they even win their home games. The people putting them in the tourney are hilarious. This team is not ready for any prime time games. Deer in headlights, and bad at fundamentals.
jacking up 3’s? Oregon has attempted 3 more than the Beavs. 5 out of 14 shots isn’t jacking up 3’s. I will agree that the outcome of this game has been decided
I’m not sure what the numbers were. Maybe they weren’t jacking up 3s, but when 4 of the 5 players are standing around the perimeter waiting to shoot, it feels like that’s what they’re doing. Okay, so maybe this is more accurate: they stand around waiting to shoot 3s. Payton drives here and there, Thompson throws in a drive or two per game. Tinkle will try inside, usually miss, but get FTs. If MD tries to drive he misses the easy layup while flailing. Everyone else who goes in there gets blocked, except for a stray and random 2 here and there on a D breakdown. Better?
I think the three’s have been good looks except whatever the hell Olaf was doing on that fadeaway of the dribble. You have to make open threes in the college game. Thompson and Olaf have missed wide open looks.
Wish NCAA would get memo in big games and tourney time let the kids play. The one thing I’ll give the NBA credit is for that. When it’s playoffs you have to really get fouled to get to the line
Thompson is surprisingly good inside. He and Payton are the only guys who can finish layups.
Olaf’s kryptonite is…..basketball
that’s the funniest shit I’ve heard today. And sadly, 100% spot on.
Too bad you can’t waive players in college hoops. We’ll eat the scholarship. Just go away
Game. Beavs didn’t reaping to the early adversity imposed on them by the stripes.. Still on them.. Have to be mentally tougher than that
Total fouls, OSU 11, Oregon 3. With 5 min left in the first half? Sorry but as bad as they’ve played the refs have had a hand in taking them out of this game. Gonzaga/St Mary’s is on ESPN 2
Wayne Tinkle has been awful tonight. Horrendous lineups on the floor all half. Pathetic performance from everyone
The refs have already decided this game, its too hard to tell what would have happened if they hadn’t given Oregon such an advantage. The Beavs then have to play on their heels, it just isn’t even fair. Oregon gets free throws for 12 minutes of the 20 minute half? Ridiculous.
Your down 20 and you complain about throwing up 3’s?
What is the “trash talk” from Tres and GP2 that Walton is babbling about? I read the local press, I don’t recall reading anything that stood out.
OSU is seriously 0 for 90 in its last games that meant anything noteworthy. Culture of losing every single game that matters in football and basketball for the last 15 years is atrocious. Tinkle 2 of 34 on the road. What does it take to have a team that travels with some confidence? Sick of winning the ones that mean little and sucking royally when anything is on the line.
oh hey Del Beavz is back with a new name
I don’t understand how tinkle doesn’t realize we are terrible at the 2-3 zone we get killed eberytime yet he stick in it forever
What’s weird is Walton complimented the zone. Really?
It’s been bad all year. I guess Tinkle doesn’t feel they have the players to man up, and he is probably right. Imagine Olaf in man defense?
In my mind shouldn’t defense be consistent? I understand that shooting might flucuate depending are where a team is playing, but I’m at a loss for why the defense is so shitty on the road this year (Stanford being the one game exception).
Just got back home, and turned on the game about 5 minutes ago.
Assuming we don’t mount a massive comeback, I’d say we’re NIT bound. Our defense just isn’t good enough. I’ve already seen players help one pass away too many times, and when we guard one on one, our perimeter players just get out-athleted with help either not paying attention or rotating over too late. Doesn’t help that the Duck’s defense is just smothering.
But ESPN said we’re a 10 seed!
Ha, I would take that as this point. This team has major defensive inconsistencies right now though, especially on the perimeter. I don’t know whether it’s youth or bad coaching, but it’s got to be fixed. Even if we did make the NCAA, I’m not sure we’d make it out of the first round.
Worst half of OSU basketball I have ever seen. Includes the 0-18 Jay John team. Complete and total suckfest. Team playing like a middle school JV squad.
Apparently you didn’t see Craig Robinson’s team lose to Seattle University 99-48? A couple of fun facts….Seattle wasn’t even in a league at that time, they were a transitional D-1 team and they were without their best player. Know your history before you pontificate, youngster!
So you’re a teenager at best? Apparently you were still in your dad’s balls in the mid to late 90’s. 93-97 was the beginning of the shit show. If you think tonight was worse than any of those teams or that 0-18 team you’re beyond fucking delusional. Come back after your balls drop Junior
Rakocevic plays well in the Bay Area and then doesn’t get any playing time tonight. Tinkle’s incredible loyalty to upperclassmen who don’t deserve the loyalty is holding this team back. Olaf is doing nothing yet again. He’s a traffic cone on defense, Jarmal is doing nothing yet again. Cal was doing this same thing to the Beavers until OSU went to their small lineup with Rakocevic at center and we haven’t seen that once tonight. Go man to man and go small with Tinkle at the 4 and Rakocevic at the 5. Olaf needs to never play another second for this team. He’s horrible and makes everyone else look bad. Tinkle not realizing this is a very bad look for him. Indefensible to keep playing him.
Tinkle started walk-ons last year in a game that mattered. Is it really surprising he’s starting upperclassmen? I said then it was a Rileyesque trait and a problem, and people got furious. Yet, here we are with Tinkle being loyal to guys who don’t deserve to be on the court. Neat story, though!
Alternatively, the younger players are currently so green/bad at leading that Tinkle would rather have the seniors in by comparison.
I don’t know which would be the worse case scenario out of the two.
I’ll take the young guys who are more talented but make mistakes. You know they’ll have some bad plays cause of inexperience but you also know they won’t quit out there and give you a better shot than the veterans who can’t lead and aren’t very talented
Can Rueck coach the men? Pretty sure he would make the tourney by Year 3. Have serious doubts Tinkle ever will. Payton with two ticky tack fouls early and the Beavs collapse. Doesn’t bode well for anything beyond peaking with the NIT. Could be CBI again next year unless our top recruit is ready to step up. Bruce’s weaknesses apparent. Not feeling us right now at all. Wish Rueck had a twin brother in the worst way.
Derp, I love the Debbie downer bullshit. Give the guy some time. OSU basically has one guy (gp2) surrounded by freshman. The rest are empty jerseys, or so inconsistent they are irrelevant in game to game talk. If this shitty play is still going on in 2 years then yes….get rid of him. Rueck didn’t turn the women’s team around in 2 seasons either, and it’s a shitty argument to even compare them at this point.
I hear you, but we all see teams with freshmen who turn it around it one season. I think expectations were high with the coaches sons coming onboard and the recruiting class ranking.. In reality, they are not one and done talent, but by the time they are juniors they might be top tier P-12 players. I think the flashes of greatness at home and then the fall aparts on the road are frustrating and that ultimately falls on the head coach no matter his tenure.
Sure, but coach Tinkle isn’t playing, neither is Rueck. But one has every position covered by his own recruits, and the other has no choice in using someone else’s shitty recruits. There is a diffrence, especially at were the beavers have been the last 2 decades. This isn’t Kentucky or Duke were any coach can take the last recruiting class and win. It’s with any coach at any level and any leauge if they produce faster than 3-4 years….cool, if not……show them the door. It’s a simple concept. I just don’t understand the doom and gloom attitude.
I’m of the opinion that WT hasn’t done anything yet until they get a signature road win. They have one last chance on the LA trip. Also, for all the NCAA talk, they still need one more win just to guarantee a winning season. I think some of the pundits are getting ahead of themselves. Almost everyone wins at home in major college basketball.
Dylan Brooks is a punk ass. I’ll be glad when he’s gone. I hate those screaming asshole type players. Does he have a NCCA championship? No? Then shut your mouth.
Walton said he’s illiterate, too. Makes sense why he went to Oregon.
UO was easier to spell than OSU.
Ducks with more blocks than Scotty’s last four blind dates.
+1 for humor, but I’m my own worst enemy and usually end up doing the blocking
Olaf is f’ing worthless.
Game is over, but with the 30 second shot clock there is no need to press and give the other team layups. Play good defense, if you get 5 stops you can change momentum.
Can’t wait to hear the post-game Parker spin on this one
Might be tough to hear him with a nap–
Oh never mind.
Fuck, Walton is a rambling idiot. He is making it sound like Highway 126 was built yesterday? I can take his stream of conscious bullshit in small doses.
What a shitshow.
Double shit show with basketball and baseball. I fuckin’ hate these days, but they are going to happen.
NIT/CBI fuck shit we played baaaad
I think Walton could still jump higher than Jarmal cement block legs Reid
The only good thing about losing a couple more games is that we’ll finally stop hearing all this ridiculous tourney drivel from the talking heads
WICKS FINKLE WUH DUUHH FUUUUUHHH!!! Dis aint gon get done yall di mo fo gettin our chinz checked by Altman Ducks???????)))((( Dis shzzz aint gone get it duone we aintt gotz no chance w dis POS coach!!$!
Why is Duck fan talking about his basketball team doing to his face what they do to drugged co-eds?
Why am I asking why a Duck fan is a moron?
WE SUPOSST TA BE TOURNEY BOUND!!@! Dis UNESCEPTABLE YALL!! Wicks FINKLE AINT NO BETTER DEN COACH ROB^^^^
Still struggling with 2nd grade I see. I’ve met 5 year olds that made more sense than you
But we all get it. Another pathetic trolling attempt. Notice some jokers never show up after a W?
Yousa not tinka. Yousa forget Ducks win. Yousa no like Ducks now? Yousa actions and blatant racism not say so.
yousa shouz giz a live. yousa shouz get out uz yo momma’s bazemen. yousa should strife ta be’s mo dan a fry boi wit youz you ooos dugree. yousa fafurite teem no wins no natteee. yousa sounz likes jackazz jak. yousa dun diz shiz buhfouh.
Comprehend that shitbird? I mean Jack? It’s painfully obvious you’re behind some of these stupid troll attempts
I turned that shit show off with about 10 minutes left in the first half. The good news is the RPI only dropped to 35th with the loss. The better news is there’s two winnable games coming up this next week that would get the Beavs to .500 in conference with a pair of W’s. A very high seed in the NIT is very attainable and give the Beavs a few more home games (granted they have to win the first to get to the next). Which I’ve stated since before the season started would be successful to me. It sucked to lose tonight but all is not lost…………..
here’s a tidbit of information that’s probably an eye opener…………..
Tinkle has led OSU in scoring in every conference road game of the season and following Saturday’s stat line became the sixth-highest scoring freshman in school history with 324 career points.
For whatever the reasons GP2 has been a non-factor in too many conference road games.
When he got the two early fouls, the game was over. How in the hell did they beat them at Gill?
GP1/2 on the road.
He has the skill set, doesn’t seem to have the mind set.
There’s a baseball thread right below this one, so there’s no need to be posting about baseball here. those comments will be deleted. Baseball thread has been moved to the top since people can’t use common sense.
Everyone posts on whatever thread’s on top
Further proof we need to move to a forum format. People can’t control themselves and post in the actual topic. It’s like one below, not buried somewhere. Shouldn’t be hard.
Well they have their work cut out for them now. I still think they can get into the “dance” if they go 4/5 out of 6/7. Sweep Washington schools, split in Los Angeles (beating USC), and win one or two games in the Pac12 tourney losing in the semi’s. 19-12 might get them in as a play-in or a #11 seed. I think a lose to either Washington school ends it for them, unless they swept LA schools and made it to championship game. It’s kind of like those wacky playoff scenarios in the NFL with 2 weeks left to go in the regular season.
somehow this wound up in the baseball thread
I know RPI is not the be all end all. However if you want a comparison, go look at Texas Tech’s resume. And right now they’d be in the tournament. Inexplicably OSU has played 2 fewer games than most teams. Yes, The Mississippi State game was pushed back to next year. But did they really have to schedule NWCC? An NAIA school? I know it was short notice but out of the other 300+ division 1 teams out there they couldn’t find at least two more opponents? I find that to be ridiculous. It seems they hardly even tried.
Go look at the two RPI’s between Oregon St and Texas Tech and compare the numbers. Yes, both teams are flawed. But one is being penalized and the other is not. And OSU does not have any “bad losses”. Beavs are currently 34th, T Tech 23rd. If you want another comparison check the resumes of Oklahoma and Oregon. One team would currently be a number 1 seed. The other a 3 seed at best?
numbers, numbers, numbers…they change everyday based on how the teams perform, yes at the moment if they selected today I don’t think they make it in, probably NIT.
It is pretty simple right now, got to WIN games, period. They need finish 3 out of 4 with victories. No bad losses to WSU or UW. At least one more road win. Then win one or two in the conference tourney and I think they are in.
However, the team hasn’t really shown that it can play consistent enough to win 3 out of 4 games, or to even win on the road. I think we pretty much know what we need to do, the problem is we don’t know if Tinkle can get these guys to do that. I am leaning towards them not doing it. The have shown improvement but not enough to confidently pick them to winning enough games. To make the NIT I still think they need to win at least three games and probably four. (sweep at home, swept on the road, win one tourney game.)
they’re in the NIT even if they go 2-2 and lose in the opening round of the conference tournament
Except they don’t need 3 of 4 to only make the NIT.
FWIW, dratings still has the Beavs as a 2 seed in the NIT. Sounds pretty accurate to me if they are one of the next 4 out according to Lunardi.
Also, as I am sure many of you that have gone to games this season have as well, I got an email from the OSU ticket office. These next two games are “fan appreciation” games. Half price tickets. Whiskey and his degenerates will be in the house for both the UW and WSU games. Gotta get both of these games this week. Go Beavs
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