04.Sep.2014 Beavs @ Hawaii Pregame

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From what I saw on Saturday (2.5 quarters of Hawaii football), they had an intense defense, a bruising RB, and somewhat mobile QB who runs the read option. Last year they only won one game, but they were in a lot of games. I don’t know if Saturday’s game versus Washington was the norm for Hawaii or an aberration. The same goes for the Beavs. Was PSU the norm? The Beavs’ WR could not separate from PSU, so do they suddenly do it versus Hawaii? Maybe. But I have to go on what I’ve seen so far rather than what should happen.

I do feel Hawaii has two indisputable advantages: Beavs have a long travel and will be fatigued and the home crowd was loud. Norm Chow, imo, is a better fundamental (i.e. false starts, timeouts, etc) coach than Riley so I’d give them the “cleaner play” advantage, too. This is based on what I saw last week and historical performance, but early in the season things can change rapidly. I’m taking Hawaii, mainly due to travel and Banker (mobile QB). What should happen is the Beavs travel a day early so they’re well-rested, dominate Hawaii with their objectively better recruits and senior QB, and bring home the W. What I fear will happen is…

27-24 Hawaii

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  • angry angry says:
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    The line for this game has crept down every day, from -12.5 Beavs to -10 Beavs.

    My PSU prediction: http://angrybeavs.com/football/10357

    Where is BeavItOrNot? He never shows up when I’m spot on, yet if I am wrong he’ll show up and act like I should have known the future. We go through this every year. BION, post your predictions now.

    • HelloBeavers says:
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      Is your prediction vs Portland State in the comments? The post you link doesn’t include a prediction.

      • angry angry says:
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        I didn’t make a score prediction, just the commentary that: “should be more like a scrimmage, but Riley will find a way to make it close”, which is what happened.

        I’d like BION and other dissenters to put their predictions in writing from here on out.

        • BeavItOrNot says:
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          Ooooh a challenge. Let me see if I can make a prediction in the same vein as Angry’s:

          I think the Beavs will win by a touchdown. Despite the poor performance last week and the fact that our WRs cannot seem to separate from DII defensive backs (I pointed out in the off-season that WR quality would be a big problem and was met with disagreement) and our line is not reliable, our defense should be able to smother Hawaii’s offensive attack and lead us in a low-scoring affair (20-13 perhaps). Of course I could also see the Beavs losing because they have trouble with mobile qbs and the travel may be an issue. So if the Beavs do lose, remember you heard it here first. However, the Beavs should win big so long as they play the way they are capable, so if we do win big, I will have called that also. But because Riley is a mediocre coach, the Beavs probably will not play up to potential, so if they do choke and lose big, just remember, I called that too.

          Prediction: Riley won’t have the guys fired up and they will probably play like this is just a practice for them and so maybe Hawaii will win. But, because Riley and all the players read this blog regularly, they will probably be fired up and play hard and win.

          • angry angry says:
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            Give a score, you fool.

          • Jack says:
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            But why? I can clearly call you out for playing both ends against the middle even if you’ve never done so… or… even if you make definitive statements and just leave them hanging…. Perhaps he’s one of the many “truthers” out there, and he thinks you are I and me is she and we is they… or something like that?

            Maybe he thinks there can be implied duplicity within definitive or stand-alone statements?

            But that would never make sense… would it?

            πŸ™‚

  • oneoldbeav says:
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    Beavs left Wednesday, do you think they should have traveled sooner?

    • angry angry says:
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      No, that is good. I believe they usually leave Thursday’s for these games. Where did you see that? And was it late or early on Wednesday?

      • beavblazer beavblazer says:
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        Several player have tweeted about the trip yesterday.

        I think the Beavs win and cover. TE’s will have a big day

      • oneoldbeav says:
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        They practiced Wed. in Corvallis and then left PDX at 10pm Wed to arrive in HI about 2:30am, Riley said in one story that he would let them sleep in Thursday. Can’t find the full quote, but the caption for the pic in this linked story gives the depart/arrival times.
        http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2014/09/oregon_state_beavers_practice_6.html

        • WFO WFO says:
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          This quote from the practice report is a bit encouraging. Villamin looks like a mismatch waiting to happen, would be nice if him and Mannion developed some chemistry.

          “Late in 11s on 11s, Sean Mannion found split end Jordan Villamin on a 40-yard bomb down the left sideline that would’ve easily been a touchdown in a game. No defender was near Villamin.”

        • Numbers says:
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          That’s a terribly slow flight plan. PDX-HNL in 7hrs30min?

          • WFO WFO says:
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            I think the quickest I’ve made it back from Hawaii is about ten days. USS Constellation was a slow old pig. πŸ™‚

          • Jack says:
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            Oooh! A shitty hawk.

            I thought Connie was one of the fastest in the fleet. Salties tell some good stories about her back in the day.

          • WFO WFO says:
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            Dunno how she was back in the day. In the early 90s she was a vibrating, listing grungy old hunk of diesel powered shit. I did a CQ on her sister the Kitty Hawk and she was about the same. Did a week on the Lincoln and that was a different story.

          • Jack says:
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            Aaah! That was after the fire.

            The shitty hawks were almost as bad as the firestalls.

            And now we have Zumwalt DDG-1000 class destroyers? I’m betting Phil Knight paid some coin to set those squids up with some spas and pretty shoes made by child slaves and some X-boxes in each of their berths….

            Nah… it’s not even funny. I tried. Slavery and selling your soul to petty dictators just doesn’t make good humor. So I’m guessing there isn’t a personal face sauna and masseuse for every sailor (and jar) on that ship.

            But damn! Those things look all Civil War and stuff.

          • Jack says:
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            There is a rumor that the phrase, “She’s got two screws loose,” was coined by sailors on the Connie.

          • Jack says:
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            Oooh! Oooh!

            I almost forgot the best part about the ZDDG-1000.

            Go look up the CO’s name. That is just reality imitating fiction to the finest of degrees. I’m sure the scrub-neck didn’t politic his way to E6 and a command of some surreal war machine. Because that would be wrong and something none of us yellow-ribbon-magnet people think about when we say we support our troops… and think to ourselves that troop is singular… I guess.

            Anyway… the first Zumwalt DDG should be called the Enterprise because of the CO.

          • WFO WFO says:
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            Shit I don’t think they ever put the fire out.

            “Fire! Fire! Fire in the three main machinery room! This is not a drill!”

            At least twice a day.

          • whiskey soaked napkins whiskey soaked napkins says:
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            it was brought to my attention that there’s a 3 hour time difference

      • whiskey soaked napkins whiskey soaked napkins says:
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        we passed the caravan of buses that were heading north on I5 on our way back from Salem Wednesday evening

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    35-25 good guys.

    They left early Wednesday per a report I heard on the radio.

  • ObjCritic says:
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    Will the Beavers middle linebacker come off the field a lot against this offense? If so, the outside linebackers and defensive backs better tackle well; high hits and body shots withbout wrapping won’t get it done.

    Saw Brown & Haskins were getting practice reps this week, that’s good. Maybe that 3.5 ypc is motivating the coaching staff to diversify a bit.

  • Dwill03 Dwill03 says:
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    NFL action starts tonight. I know most dislike the Hawks and hate Sherman, but this is funny no matter who your a fan of:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwMONEPz4yA

    • VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
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      Thanks for the NYC recap. Sounds like you did it right. As far the wife goes, maybe do a combo trip? Two-three days big city, NYC or DC, then catch a quick flight from JFK or IAD or National out to Bermuda or the Caribbean. We’ve done that several times it gets you a win-win. JB

      • Dwill03 Dwill03 says:
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        Good suggestion on staying for a few days while traveling through. I always enjoy reading your travel stories and suggestions. Hope to be in a situation come retirement age where I can be a bit of a jet setter as well.

        We have a 4 year old who loves the beach, so we typically just go to Maui because of the shorter travel and safety/comfort of still being in the US. He’d be pretty bummed seeing pics of Mom and Dad playing in the ocean while he’s at home with grandma.

        Cheers

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      Outstanding video! Dijon Sanders.

    • angry angry says:
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      Don’t forget, dudes…AB fantasy football starts tonight.

      • JD says:
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        Bring it Bike Rider πŸ™‚

        • angry angry says:
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          πŸ˜‰

          Whoever owns the team Gosh Darn–I have two of your RB handcuffs. Let’s make a deal.

          • alex says:
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            Gosh Darn has a good team. Played the auction very well and got a lot of great value. It was a very, very neat deal for him.

          • angry angry says:
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            Really? Ellington and Tate are very weak.
            Jennings could be good.

            It was definitely a neat deal, though.

          • JD says:
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            It was my first ever auction draft and I was flying blind basically. It was definitely more fun than a snake draft and I learned quite a bit. It really was a neat deal and i’m hoping that i can find my identity quickly.

          • alex says:
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            Strongly disagree on Ellington. Has clear top 10 upside.

            Tate will be the bell cow on that team -a rare commodity in today’s NFL – and the focal point of the offense. Only thing that would hold Tate back is other teams disrespecting their pass game and loading the box. Still he could put up decent numbers as a volume back.

          • alex says:
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            But in any case his starters weren’t what I was referring to. He has great depth.

          • angry angry says:
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            He does have depth, but guys resting on the bench don’t win games, and the waiver wire always has gems who emerge on their own or via injury. I don’t like Ellington or Tate, but to each their own. Hey, it’s game time. Come on, Nelson!

          • Jack says:
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            I’m taking Ellington over Tate. Duke had his own band, and Buddy only played for the Count for a while.

    • whiskey soaked napkins whiskey soaked napkins says:
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      Frank Caliendo is awesome and he just nails ALL of those.

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    PSU is better than Hawaii. Beavs will cruise unless, of course, they come up with one of their patented September fails. JB

    PS: Did you see BDC dropped the hammer on the mens rowing coach? Feeling pretty macho after CR.

  • StarcraftSquall says:
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    Phil Steele’s release for the game:

    OSU is 6-3 (3 str wins) in the series. There have been 2 recent meetings (β€˜08, β€˜13). OSU at
    home was +274 and +269 yds. LY OSU had a 202-128 yd edge at the half but it was tied
    at 14. The Beavers did shut out the Rainbow Warriors 19-0 in the 2H. The Beavers did just
    play here in the bowl as they beat Boise St 38-23. You would figure that after a couple of
    outright upset losses to FCS tms in the L/3 yrs, they would be better prepared but LW they
    only beat Port St 29-14. They actually trailed by 1 at HT before scoring 16 straight in the
    2H. They did have 25-15 FD and 504-214 yd edges but also benefited from +4 TO’s. The
    Rainbow Warriors are off a 1 pt loss at home to Wash in a game they were leading 10-0
    1Q. They had 26-19 FD and 424-336 yd edges and had to settle for 2 short FG’s. Look for
    the Beavers to get the win but Hawaii is dangerous.

    OREGON STATE 30, HAWAII 20

    • bone says:
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      The Portland St. game reminded me of the Hawaii game of last season. Last week was a rusty game, I don’t expect to have the same inefficient game we saw last week. Beavs 31-14.

  • JD says:
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    My prediction is that the Beavs look good against Hawaii 41-13 and then crap the bed against SDSU at home in 2 weeks.

    • whiskey soaked napkins whiskey soaked napkins says:
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      I’ll take that bet. I predict beavs beat SDSU and THEN shit the bed against USC

  • Jack says:
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    We’ll win 52-13 going away. Mannion will never leave the game, and we’ll continue to pass well into the fourth quarter, still never seeing Brown or Haskins. This will lead to the TV announcers asking why this is occurring, saying things like, “I just don’t know why Mike Riley is ____.” And most of us will be yelling about this being more of the same-old same-old. Then one or more pollyannas will chime in about how we just can’t be happy with a win, dominating or otherwise.

    • oneoldbeav says:
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      Spot on, especially the final sentence!
      I think Phil Steele’s score is closer to being right but do see what you did there.

  • whiskey soaked napkins whiskey soaked napkins says:
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    Beavs 27, Hawaii 10

  • slamadam says:
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    34 24 beavs. Bowl game last Christmas provides some comfort, as does this being game 2 not the opener. Few will leave the game feeling any more or less confident because of what they saw.

  • angry angry says:
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    Wow, not a lot of respect for the Warriors here. I thought they played very well. Did you guys not watch the game? Not sure what the blowout scores are based off.

    • JD says:
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      Hawaii played hard but doesn’t have a lot of talent. I think the blowout predictions are based off of the Beavs having the talent to destroy Hawaii and sometimes talent can overcome poor coaching. Plus like Jack said above, Mannion will play the whole game and will be throwing until the end.

    • whiskey soaked napkins whiskey soaked napkins says:
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      yes. their offense sucks. Good, powerful running back. They also hit hard on D. As previously stated I think that game was more what the Huskies didn’t do on offense since they were without Cyler Miles and being Peterson’s first game at UW. If Miles plays, Washington wins by more than 1.

    • oneoldbeav says:
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      http://blogs.seattletimes.com/huskyfootball/2014/09/03/cyler-miles-bringing-a-different-swagger-to-uw-offense/
      I believe a big factor in predictions of a blowout is that many realize the dawgs are a lot better with Miles playing. Because Mannion is more like (better than) Miles than first time starter Lindquist, it seems easy to conclude that the Beavs will do a LOT better than the dawgs did.

      All that may be true, but predictions of a blowout ignore the Beavs weakness at OL and the Riley factor. For the Beavs to win in a blowout the D would have to stop the run and force UH to throw multiple picks; the OL would have to give Sean time to throw and Riley would have to call a smart/balanced game. I don’t see all of those things happening.
      My guess: Beavs 28, UH 21

  • VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
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    We need to have a weekly pool to see who gets it correct most often.
    Better yet, we need a “post of the week”. Determined by me of course, and only on the game thread. He’ll I might even sponsor such ridiculousness.

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    I’m gonna belabor a point with the Pac-12 network.
    I am especially sensitive to this because I sympathize with small restaurant and bar owners trying to earn a living. In Astoria last weekend there were several bar owners that were scrambling last minute to get the Beaver game because they were mislead by their cable provider. Yeah they should’ve done their due diligence but small biz owners have a lot on their plate.
    I’m not sure who to blame for this extreme difficulty in getting Pac games on in every small town in Oregon but it really sucks and you can see the fan base in these small towns finding other stuff to do besides support their local teams. By ‘small towns’ I mean basically everyone except Portland, Salem, and Eugene.

  • whiskey soaked napkins whiskey soaked napkins says:
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    Arizona is a dogfight with Texas-San Antonio. 20-16 mildcats at halftime. On Fox Sports 1

  • whiskey soaked napkins whiskey soaked napkins says:
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    The stupidity is strong in this one. If you don’t know how television contracts work, don’t. Just don’t.

    http://www.pure-orange.net/cgi/anyboard.cgi/bscpigskin2?cmd=iYz&aK=8667&iZz=8667&gV=0&kQz=&aO=1&iWz=0

  • FedUpBeav says:
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    Stay committed to the run and we win. Only reason we have lost more frequently over the last few years is by being too pass happy. Mire running iproves the rythym & limits negative plays & no yards gained plays which deteriorate playcalling option and stall drives leading to more possession for the opponent and more points scored against us.

    Saw an OSUProf thing on this once two years ago. We are at our best running on nearly 60% of plays as far as win percentage. It is a very small plateau drop until 55% and then is noticeably declining down to 50% run vs pass. Below 50% it is a sheer drop and quickly becomes very difficult to win and then extremely difficult to win if we approach 45% runs only.

    Seems like Riley has been having alot of games around 47% runs over past few years and that is why we have been fighting the odds and coming up on the short end more than we would like.

    Just run more and the sabremetrics will return to our favor and we will be back to better bowls. Higher % of runs has direct relationship to higher % of winning which leads to best odds to end up with the higher win totals necessary for better bowls.

    • Jack says:
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      Ummm… you’re going to have a hard time finding run/pass ratios over 3:4 for the past ten years. And that’s a ratio, not a 75% effective play call. That means for every three runs there are four passes. And that’s the high end… maybe. I think the ratio is more of a 5:9 situation.

      I don’t know what he might be talking about with any numbers of us running anywhere near 50%, unless he’s including the DE years. But then why wouldn’t he also include the Petibone years… which would throw that weird claim out the window?

      So… it doesn’t remotely seem we’ve been running the ball at a 47% clip over the past couple years. Counting sacks and QB scrambles as runs, it maybe reaches 47% on a good day… once, maybe twice a year. Most of the time it’s about 35% (again, counting sacks and QB scrambles as runs).

    • HelloBeavers says:
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      “Higher % of runs has direct relationship to higher % of winning”

      You pass more when you are losing and run more when you are winning during a game. The % is a result and not a cause.

      • Jack says:
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        True.

        The run to pass ratio against PSU was pathetic in itself. But it would have been worse if we didn’t run six straight times to end the game.

      • angry angry says:
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        I agree with this. OSUProf should know better. If it were as simple as running 60% of the time OSU would do that and win every game.

      • FedUpBeav says:
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        Erickson kept running when down 7 or even 10 points. It was more effective because tge idds if its success were higher. The Fiesta Bowl Beavs ran on 64% of plays despite having Chad Johnson and Housh and a capable QB with Smith. They played the percentages to the max and had great success.

        Riley even will abandon the run when leading by 7+ which makes very little sense. Instead of burning clock it keeps the opponent alive and with better chances to come back.

        Our receivers this year are just OK so we will have more success using the run to set up play action passing. Gaining 4+ yards on 1st down also maximizes success in moving the chains. OSU will be more sucessful if we run more. It maintains a better rythym and also can help instill confidence in sustained marcges and lessens the nefative plays that stall drives. For Riley teams if we run more and then also start to run better it is a great combination for this offense and teams having a tough time stopping us.

  • capitalcause says:
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    31-14 ….28 points in the second half…it won’t be pretty (again — but a win, again)…onward…

  • beaverkman beaverkman says:
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    I watched Hawaii they looked good. I watched Beavs game they didn’t look good. The team that looked bad has to travel a long ways. Playing on the road.

    I think this going to be a wild game, I could see the it coming down to special teams.
    Owens misses a clutch kick and an xtra pt.
    Hawai’i 25-23

  • mckalk says:
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    Is the poor red zone offense a trend or an aberration? Will the running backs be used effectively in the passing game. Can the young receivers improve from Week 1 to Week 2? Can the defense semi-contain a mobile QB?

    Beavs 27-17

  • silverstream055 silverstream055 says:
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    Is Gina Mizell (unlike Lindsay Schnell) willing to ask Mike Riley some tougher, follow-up questions, rather than just accepting the pablum that “nice guy” MR routinely dishes out to the media? Here is a snippet from Gina’s Thursday practice report:
    http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2014/09/oregon_state_practice_report_l.html

    ***
    I asked Riley about the red zone troubles and what the Beavers must do to improve. He gave me the same answer I got when I asked about this during the Portland State postgame press conference — eliminate penalties and run the ball better. I followed that by asking if running the ball better meant calling more running plays in certain situations, and Riley said this: “Maybe, but being more productive in the ones that you do call. That’s the best way to have a good red zone offense.”
    ***

    I suspect Gina is already tiring of this type of evasion from MR. Hey Gina — don’t give up. Keep pushing!

    • Jack says:
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      It’s amazing that common sense questions are being praised. One would think the media would ask them as a part of their job. Good on Gina for being football smart and job relevant.

      I don’t understand the football coach who gives up on the run because we only get 3.5 to 4.5 yards per attempt. Especially in a pro-style offense, running the ball is more of a method, an identity thing. You do it because it sets up success in the passing game, beats on the D, gives your Oline a purpose and puts them on the offensive. But it also teaches your RBs. They get to see their first read get stuffed and figure out where to go next time. They run for two yards and get up and do it again. Not every run goes for 10+ yards. In fact, a successful run game only has a half-dozen or so 10+ yard gains… some of them spectacular. But those runs only come with persistence and work. If you are not persistent and don’t work, people start to call you out for your own stated style of play and the rhetoric you employ to defend your hypocrisy.

      Football is not a difficult game. It is one of position. And position is best gained by systematically pushing your opponent down the field. An Oline has zero chance to do this when they get to play defense by pass blocking for 60 to 70% of the game. That’s just got to be frustrating for any of our Oline. Let them go out and beat up on the D instead of sitting on their heels all game long.

      Dammit!

    • ObjCritic says:
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      I emailed her a few months back to thank her for bringing a fresh approach. I suggest others do the same. Its easy for people to take cheap shots in comments section in Olive; but an email with “thanks” and critical questions/ideas is productive with her. She followed up on a suggestion of mine.

    • Jack says:
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      One bright spot completely missed last week was mentioned here. Dockery actually opened the game by returning the football beyond the 25. In fact, he was only forced out at the 35. That was really nice to see after years of players running it out to the 18.

      It also made me cringe every time I saw Bolden fielding punts. Put Dockery out there.

      But the point is the kid is just dynamic. And I think the article linked shows that even Riley is starting to see that. Dockery was in a lot of formations last week, and I think he was targeted once (poor throw behind him due to coverage). But I thought he was pretty spectacular as a HS player and still think he can be really really good if not great.

      That Riley gave him that rep is noteworthy because it means he’s thinking something somewhere needs some shake-up.

    • oneoldbeav says:
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      At 3:13 in the linked video Gina hits the “maybe run the football in the red zone” button again. If she keeps this up we may see just how much of a “nice guy” Riley really is. It’d be a pretty neat deal if he 1) allows her to continue, and 2) begins to respond directly.

      http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2014/09/oregon_state-hawaii_are_the_be.html

  • homefry homefry says:
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    31-17 Beavers….That’s not including the one score that will be taken away from us by the refs.

  • NorCalBeaver NorCalBeaver says:
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    I apologize for having to ask this again but does anyone have advice on how to watch the game this weekend? Last week it was broadcast on the PAC 12 channel and here in Sacramento they played the standford game. But thanks to the advice I able to download the PAC-12 app and watch on my iPhone. This week it’s being broadcast on cbs sports network which apparently isn’t available again in sac. Is there another online link to view the game? Thank you guys again.

    • jerk says:
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      Try a stream like vipbox or ripsink

      • beavblazer beavblazer says:
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        Forgot about ripsink. Thats probably the most simple method, as long as they have that channel

    • beavblazer beavblazer says:
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      Who is your cable/internet provider? If comcast, you might be able to find a live feed of cbs sports through the comcast site? I’m not home rigjt now to test it out, but pretty sure I did it that way for a game last year. Otherwise, you can take your chances with firstrowsports. Just make sure you dont click on any ads/links because they could add malware to your system.

  • NorCalBeaver NorCalBeaver says:
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    I have sure west which is now consolidated communication.

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