Home Football San Diego State @ Oregon State

San Diego State @ Oregon State

218

I just finished watching these highlights of UNC/SDSU. The Aztecs are better than I thought. Some observations:

  • SDSU’s offensive line looked pretty good, especially running the ball.
  • Keahler is not a particularly mobile QB. He looks shifty in the sense he can buy time and avoid sacks, but he isn’t a true running threat. Beavs defense always plays well versus this type of QB. I expect some sacks and a good performance by the front four. Without the option threat, the line should be able to key in on the back (Donnel Pumphrey) and win penetration. LBs will need to clean up because Pumphrey is evasive enough to make his own holes.
  • Kaehler delivered some beautiful balls in-stride, but also threw some bad interceptions. He probably will not throw Nelson’s way. That leaves Larry Scott as a key player in this game. The SDSU WRs look solid.
  • The SDSU kicker hit from 50 yards. If this game comes down to the wire they probably have the advantage there.
  • SDSU has the coaching advantage in terms of time management and play calling (i.e. they called 39 pass plays and 35 run plays versus North Carolina). Riley is stubbornly forcing an aerial attack identity onto this club, and with the improved competition I feel this is the week it could come back to hurt Mannion. I expect he throws a couple interceptions and that number increases versus USC unless the Beavers can run a balanced offense statim. Mannion should have at least 4INTs so far, but he’s gotten away with them due to poor talent in the PSU and Hawaii secondaries.

Note that OSU’s pass/run ratio is 82:73. So almost 1:1. That is not bad, but ideally you’d want to see it reversed. What exacerbates it is that they pass in the wrong situations (e.g. inside the redzone, short yardage, etc). It makes it seem much worse.

Overall I was impressed with SDSU on film. They look to be about the same talent level as the Beavers. This makes sense since they’re in a recruiting hotbed and get a lot of the USC/UCLA leftovers. The weather calls for 91 degrees and sun on Saturday. That probably benefits SDSU. OSU’s advantages, based on what I’ve seen, would lie on the defensive front and Nelson shutting down half the field. That’s the key to winning this game and those players could suffocate SDSU’s offense. Now will that happen? No, because what I learned is that nothing ever comes easy for OSU. On offense, the Beavers must be more balanced or Sean Mannion will throw INTs this week.

I originally felt good about OSU dominating this game because they historically play well versus non-mobile QBs and have favorable matchups in this game. Watching the SDSU film curbed my enthusiasm, and Riley is a handicap (Probably a touchdown per game. So -4 thisĀ  week since we give +3 for home field advantage). I also worry about OSU looking ahead to the USC game now that it’s a prime time game on ESPN. Beavs on upset alert but have enough to overcome the Riley factor. With the Riley factor they eek out a 27-24 win, but it should be more like 34-24.

218 COMMENTS

  1. Just heard Dashon Hunt will make his debut this week. In HS he was excellent vs the run, and very good vs the pass. He is a superior talent to Scott and could be a factor in this game.

  2. Any observations on SDSU’s defense or specific defensive players? I think their scheme leads to the potential for more Mannion interceptions.

    If OSU’s front seven can contain the non-mobile QB and their RB, then it seems like it comes down to whether or not SDSU can stop OSU’s offense?

  3. SDSU has 14 penalties in two games, with 94 yards in penalties, compared to 26 penalties and 218 yards by OSU, so there’s a potential advantage: cleaner play.

    Once their opponents get in the red zone (which is infrequent), they’re scoring on 4 out of 4 trips, with 3 out of 4 being TDs. With Riley’s ability to get to the red zone and then stall (14 trips, 5 tds), it will be interesting to see if this trend continues or not.

    Only 2 sacks by SDSU so far.

    http://www.goaztecs.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/sdsu-m-footbl-CumulativeStats.html

    http://www.osubeavers.com/fls/30800/Football/FB%20Stats/2014/teamcume.htm?DB_OEM_ID=30800#TEAM.TEM

    It looks like to me like, overall, OSU will be its own biggest challenge again. Even at home.

  4. so thereā€™s a potential advantage: cleaner play.

    I think all that falls under the -7 “Riley Factor”…including time management, etc. He costs the team about 7 points per week, imo. At home and in game 3 the penalties should be fewer. For example, you’d expect fewer false starts for one.

    The sample size is too small to rely on stats too much.
    I can understand why people like SDSU in this game. A lot of Beav fans are nervous.

    OSU has some butt ugly stats considering the opponents: http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/204/oregon-state-beavers

    • Agree the sample size is too small, but penalties are clearly a part of OSU’s identity right now until proven otherwise. If I were the opponent, I’d still have ends or LBs lined up over Caleb Smith give him the shadow box 1-2….

      I also think Rocky Long is more motivated than Riley. OSU’s special teams gaffes best not reappear.

  5. Beavs are down another O-linemen with Harlow sitting out of practice since the last game. Not sure if he’s expected to play Saturday, but having to sit out that long would lead me to believe he won’t be available, or will be at less than 100%

  6. Last year was an ugly game. The weather shouldn’t be much of an issue. It’s a 730 kickoff.

    Time of possession will be the biggest factor to avoid an upset. The offense must have scoring drives that are 5-6 min long. SDSU runs a 3-3-5 stack defense and OSU has had some success running against it in the past (Arizona runs 335).

    I expect to see lots of 2 TE sets. The key for the 335 defense is speed and the best way to attack speed is to run right at it. We’ll see if the oline can grind down their dline early.

    Unless there is a really crappy secondary player on SDSU, I see a lot of Ward and Woods on Sat. Maybe 55-45 run/pass.

    Looking at SDSU stats, here’s a few things I saw,

    – Only 2 sacks on the year coming against Northern Arizona.
    – Top 4 tacklers are all DBs. (Might be misleading due to scheme).
    – Pretty light on the dline- No starter over 300. The listed DT starter is 260.

  7. Riley really starting to chap my hide with his handling of a talented Chris Brown who is more than ready to contribute. Not one touch of the ball yet despite 7.6 yards per carry last year. Get the stud some looks coach. Woods can see a few less and remain a key part of passing game but Brown needs some reps. Ward will be our leadibg rusher this year I imagine. He is more consistent than Woods. Woods may look slighter better this year than last but Brown can fill those shoes where needed and let Woods gave more juice to attack full force in the short passing game.

    Angry and others are spot on that we should be rushing a higher amount than passing. Flip the percentages and we are more dangerous in this league.

    • the rumor is Brown has been having trouble holding on to the ball which is why. That and he’s on probation for punching Riahanna

    • 7.6 ypc. In a pro offense. Yeah, it was often in garbage time, and only 19 carries, but still, the kid’s ability and potential are clear and impressive. He sometimes looked a step away from taking the ball for long runs.

      Its absurd that Riley finds it “hard” to get carries for him.

      • Makes no sense really. Brown is clearly the best home run threat we have. He fits the mold of the cliche ” He’s a threat to take it the distance every-time he touches the ball”.

        He should have a few packages installed for him every game where he gets 5-8 touches. Throw him a screen..play him in the slot and run fly sweep action ( fake a few then give him one).. try him on a stretch play or counter… There’s plenty of options…Again shows a lack of ingenuity on Riley’s part

        • It’s also strange that he’s been kicked away from on every single kickoff so far, even though he’s never touched the rock in that situation. Are opposing coaches aware of him? More so then our own…

          • It makes me nervous having him back there on kickoffs. If coaches were aware of him, I think they’d kick it to him to see if he could hold on to the ball.

          • I only recall Brown putting the ball on the mat one time and we recovered it. I feel like since Quizz who was this freaky ball security phenom (record breaking correct?) we’re unforgiving for fumbles and bring it constantly even if it’s only occurred once or twice.

            As fans I think we’re shouting for Brown to get a chance because he was one of our higher rated recruits, chose us over something like 20 other offers, and have seen Riley be blindly loyal to upperclassmen in the past. Brown has looked more electric/explosive with the ball (in extremely limited touches) then about any other Beav RB I’ve ever seen. I think we all just want to see what he can do…

          • I’m now, and have been, calling for him to be installed in the game plan. He is the most talented RB we have by far. All I hear is excuses for not playing him. All I see is the same “development/seniority” BS Riley always does.

            Yes, he’s not measurably better in a great sense. But he has better vision and much better speed than either of the two in front of him.

            Cue the same “pass blocking” lie we’ve also heard for the past two years.

        • It lacks ingenuity when Riley doesn’t play the guy with less experience? People seem to jumping to conclusions about Brown. He needs some more semi-junk carries so we can see what he can do.

          • He seems to have the best pure running skills by far. I am afraid he will get frustrated and transfer.
            They should be using him how Wisconsin uses their young backs. Fly sweep packages to get them used to the college game without overloading them with pass protection responsibilities. Our offense is not good enough to have a talented player not getting some touches. He is a home run threat and we don’t have that many. Two years ago Melvin Gordon was fly sweeping Nebraska to death.

          • Don’t be an apologist for this instance. Be one for anything else, but not this. I loved Woods out of HS for certain things. He lost those things between his frosh and soph years. I screamed for Ward to just get an offer… after signing day… for a couple days… like I do. He is who I thought he would be.

            Brown was immensely better than either at this position in HS. And he has shown in limited time that he is much better at this level. If you can’t see that, then that’s not on anyone but you. Excuses are all that hold him back.

            Stop apologizing for excuses.

          • Its pretty blatant Brown has the best explosion on the squad… “Junk Carries”!!!? Thats such a cop out neither Ward or Woods press and then hit the hole like Brown does period. Even in the small sample size you can see the explosion is a notch above other backs. For him to not get 5-8 touches a game is a joke

  8. Riley is unable to bring disciplined play to his teams. They have to “Find” it on their own. I guess he is good at X’s and O’s but fails at the imortant aspect of bringing character and identity. Too mild, too conciliatory, and always double talks about team problems or failures. Suck it up, coach — let the team know they should WIN!

    • I’m not a football coach but if my team was averaging 12 boneheaded penalties per game I’d say cut it in half next game or you will ALL be doing bear crawls and wind sprints until you puke on Sunday. Get it thru your moronic heads. Do we have an entire team of Peko’s?

  9. I like this Mageo kid and he seems to bring legitimate heft to the LB position. What do poster here think of his play? Average? High potential?

    On a side note, I really respect his ability to play the game and STAY IN SCHOOL while he learns English! Are you watching Peko? Are you embarrassed Peko?

    • I was bullish on him after that SD State game last year ( I was there live).. He attacks the ball carrier with such aggression and is always around the ball. The passion that he showed that game left a memorable impression on me. He was a freshman with language issues but yet here he was being the best player on D that day and you could see him yelling at dudes and firing them up in the huddle.

      With improved pass coverage skills he can be special

  10. It’s a really weird coaching dynamic…some coaches are much more interested in seeing their legacy as being built on player promotion or status than on team titles. While other programs put team success first almost to a fault, with no special highlights or player pimping…There is a coach in the bay area, Coach Alonzo Carter (now at Contra Costa College) who while coaching Berkely High unapologetically ran the program only for the goal of getting his kids noticed and promoted, many times to the detriment of team success. While other storied programs never self promote or focus on individual highlights or success, it’s all about the team.

    I’m reminded of how Sean and Cooks were in the game till the end against Cal last year in a complete blow out. We almost lost Brandin on a play that had no effect on the win or loss late in the game. I know many of us on the site were cringing when we saw another 40 – 50 yard pass attempt while sitting on a 42-10 lead in the fourth quarter.

    • Perhaps Riley doubts his ability to ever win a Rose bowl, and so as you suggest is attempting to build his legacy with back-up NFL QB’s and the occasional star skill player who benefits greatly from his play calling emphasis; e.g. Quizz getting 97% of the carries, Mannion/Cooks passing emphasis.

      I couldn’t believe – well actually I could – that he did not put in Vanderveen when up by 31, and focus on developing the run blocking mentality. Also, letting Vanderveen roll out or do half rolls on a few pass plays would have taken advantage of his mobility and simplified the throws for him. It also would have been a dimension Hawaii had not seen in the game up to that point. In so doing, I think Riley could have used up the clock and held onto the ball (the ST gaffes non-withstanding, and not sure to have occurred had Riley played this differently).

      Riley’s decisions in the Cal game last year were mind-blowingly stupid and stubborn.

        • I don’t think there’s any doubt there. This website was just started by the OSU athletics department today to promote Mannion.

          Starts out with a section called “Follow his journey to the top” showing how his total passing yards stack up with the top 10 all time passing leaders in the Pac. Funny thing is, when you look at that list, you don’t think “NFL Talent”, aside for maybe Derek Anderson and Carson Palmer.

          http://seanmanniontheqb.com/

      • Aunt Patty won’t/can’t out wunder-kid Helfrich. Ducks in a walk.

        Beavs have been flirting with disaster this year. Good second half against PSU, good first half against Hawaii. In total a solid sixty minutes in two games. They will need a solid sixty against SDSU. I fully expect the annual early season unexplainable stinker to occur this week. Riley dials up his annual September egg. JB

        • He’ll fall back on the OLine injury excuse…why he was forced to throw so much, “Sean got us the yards, we just needed more points…” talk about what might have been, say the botched clock management didn’t really affect the outcome…. then prepare for a meltdown of fundamentals and subsequent and consequent destruction by USC….

          God, Riley has me getting more cynical and less “Objective” earlier in the year….

        • Aunt Patty will attempt to have her team top her all time pass attempts record for a single game this year. Why not set the record vs the Ducks again, even if the team is getting demolished? Aliotti will be sitting back at the Pac 12 studios, ready to bitch about it post game.

          • That had to be THE stupidest rant ever. I can’t believe anyone associated with a sport could have been so immense a moron that they would openly whine about the other team playing to the final whistle… when they’re getting pasted.

            Then again, that guy had a ton of talent on his defenses over the years. And not a one of them were that good other than take-aways. And even that can be attributed to their offense forcing most opponents to go one dimensional.

      • So… he can run fast, has an efficient throwing motion and is super nice.

        That gets you drafted in the top 5?

        And this:
        “Aaron Rodgers is the prototype in the NFL now, but he wasn’t close to this type of player as a rookie and needed three years training to become what we see today.”

        Wow! I suppose it was just stupid of Green Bay not to throw Rodgers out there immediately. I mean, it’s not like it was some almost-scandal when he dropped so far in the draft… because the Niners decided to take Smith… a dual threat QB (also with a stronger arm than Mariota’s arm). And it’s not like the Packers already had some HoFer QB in front of him for two years… oh… wait for it… all summer we had to watch the media stalk this non-future-HoFer… make that three years.

        Beyond that, suggesting that a QB who was a prototypical QB out of college also matured to become THE prototype in the NFL means what for the reader? Why is Rodgers even mentioned in this article?

        • Btw… the reason Alex Smith was taken #1 was because he threw at 68% for 3000 yards and a 32/4 TD/INT ratio plus 630 yards and 10 rushing TDs. They also excused his noodle arm, quiet demeanor and the fact he played in a read option system where he was mobile and made only two reads in the pocket, if that many, in order to make the case they needed to draft him #1 overall.

          So there’s that. Maybe those NFL scouts, coaches and GMs know more than I do?

  11. Oh dear. I’m almost in tears I was laughing so hard at some idiot Pollyanna post on PO. There’s a football post over there about Todd Graham for whatever reason. I guess he’s donating to his own program or something. Whatever. He’s going to be gone in three years anyway.
    http://www.pure-orange.net/cgi/anyboard.cgi/bscpigskin2?cmd=iYz&aK=10837&iZz=10837&gV=0&kQz=&aO=1&iWz=0

    However, the thread turned into some hypothetical about ASU fans being discontent with some coach who would average 10 wins a year (?) and openly wondered why Snyder was fired in 2000 (hint: the only thing he did at ASU was to have one more good year, albeit an awesome one, than he did at his previous two stops… and that was with a ton of NFL talent).

    So, it eventually devolves into the stupids calling out one poster for his (rather light) critical and rational post being ironic due to his past posts that were supposedly critical of Riley. If this constitutes critical, then color me underwhelmed. Regardless, they go on until the king of stupid goes on to post this:

    “10/9/9/8/5/3 (Riley 2006-2011) 44 wins (3-1 bowls)

    11/9/5/5/6 (Snyder 1996-2000) 36 wins (1-3 bowls)

    One Rose Bowl berth doesn’t handily trump EIGHT more victories over a comparative five year period. That’s a whole season “extra” worth of wins.”

    Yes… yes my dear Pollyanna… masquerading as a mathematician. That is indeed a whole season “extra” worth of wins.

    smh

      • And I believe he has Snyder’s bowl count or win count wrong. I’m pretty sure you don’t get to go to a bowl in four of five seasons when two of them are five win seasons.

        The final count should be:

        Riley: 34-29, 2-1 in Vegas weed-eating Emerald Sun Bowls
        Note: That is king dumb’s (corrected) cherry-picked comparative. Riley’s last five years come to 32-31 and 1-2 in an Alamo bowl and a couple weed-whackers.

        Snyder: 37-22, 1-3 in a Rose Bowl and some weed-whacker bowls

        And ASU was still correct when they canned Snyder.

          • “Goe: To me it’s whether the Beavers can win and get a 3-0 start, which I think puts them in reach of a bottom-feeder bowl game and possibly, much more. To do this, I think they will have to run the ball effectively and continue to play the kind of defense they played for most of the game against Hawaii.”

            Sounds like Angry. A non-prediction prediction.

          • You’re right. It’s not really a prediction. That was the point.

            My other point is that Goe is a chump and it’s rather obnoxious when sportswriters hedge their statements to such a degree.

            If they play good defense they have a chance at winning and being 3-0. Then they might be in reach of a low tier bowl game, which could then put them in reach of an even better bowl game! So long as they keep playing good defense and running the ball well.

            Holy shit what a revelation. Play well and you have a shot at winning the game! Turns out, the more games you win the more prestigious your bowl game will be!

          • Probably because the Beavers are unpredictable. Many teams are predictable. Like the Ducks you can predict a win each week. Beavers are Jekyll/Hyde and half the time unprepared, so you just don’t know what to say. Teams like the Beavs need a “what they should do” vs “what they will do” column. Sorry, what I meant to say is “in Riley we trust!”

            Edit: and I am not sure what you’re talking about, I made some specific statements that the front four and Nelson should have a good game and gave an exact score.

          • I won’t argue about the value of the content itself being low to medium in quality. But I do wonder how you pull the word prediction out of this air when the intent, context and actual quote have nothing to do with one. As you say, it’s a no-brainer of an observation, nothing more.

          • Yeah, I was a little flippant about the term “prediction,” Goe didn’t really add much to the roundtable….my bigger point though was if OSU goes to Drano Toilet Bowl then Riley gets another year tacked on to his contract.

          • Ahhh… got it. So you’re saying he’s looking forward for a strange reason–one that might or might not be good for the program, as is evidenced by his differentiating types of bowl games.

          • And now that I look at the article and see that quote in context it seems it’s not even an answer to anything remotely resembling a prediction, making it jut an observation. This is as close as he comes to a prediction, which again does not rise above an observation:

            “The team that runs the ball best has the best chance to win.”

          • Saw another prediction ( I think on SI or ESPN) that the Beavs would land in the “Heart of Dallas Bowl presented by PlainsCapital Bank”. What the hell is the Heart of Texas bowl?

    • I’m amazed that the site still looks like it was made in 90’s (it uses JavaScript 1.1 which was released in 1996).

      It’s actually pretty embarrassing.

      • I don’t really care about the look except for all the hyperlinks at the top of each topic page. It’s the navigation that kills me there. You can’t tell who’s responding to whom or where sub-threads begin and end.

    • For a second I thought you were saying they were comparing BILL Snyder to Riley. I was going to flip. Bill Snyder is the best NCAA coach I’ve ever seen.

    • So it looks like he’s (I’m assuming it’s “he”) changed his cherry-picked years to include Riley’s best five consecutive years, still ignoring Riley’s last five years… which would be truly analogous. Well, his best four years… which have five win bookend seasons. He’s still not got Snyder’s numbers right, and plays off that as well.

      So here’s how the basic numbers play out in his cherry-picked comparative:

      Mike Riley: 41-24 for a .630 win rate
      Bruce Snyder: 37-22 for a .627 win rate

  12. “They learned that they still can’t win the “big game” when they need to. Actually, the game played out very similarly to the OSU game last year. Against the Beavers, Kaehler threw two late interceptions. At North Carolina, he threw three picks, two of them at the Tar Heels’ goal line. The first was returned 100 yards for a touchdown and the last came in the closing seconds on a first down at the UNC 3-yard line. SDSU fans have criticized the coaches for not trying to run the ball with two timeouts in that situation, but Rocky Long insisted the interceptions were the difference.”
    http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2014/09/san_diego_state_beat_writer_sa.html#incart_related_stories

    Coaching advantage huh?

  13. 5 recruits visiting this weekend.

    1. LB Cameron Townsend. Top 300 player on ESPN. 4 stars. Rivals – 3 stars.
    – A solid LB. Many big school offers. Would be a great get.
    2. CB Dameon Barber – 3 stars on most sites.
    – Film looks good. A solid 3 star player. Ball hawk with good speed. Curiously, not a lot of offers.
    3. TE Matt Snyder – 3 stars
    – Good pass catcher. Good open field runner, returns kicks for his team. Don’t see a lot of blocking on his film. Already have 2 TE commits. Not sure they need another one. Numerous mid major offers.
    4. S Omar Hicks-Onu – 3 stars. Committed already.
    – Solid tackler. Not a hitter but gets low and makes plays. Size and issue. Maybe a candidate for CB.
    5. LB Angelo Garbutt – 2 Stars. Committed already
    – Definite 2 star. If he was faster, he’d be 3 stars.

  14. Good article on how Chip utilizes all of his resources rather than relegating himself to “old school” egotism: http://online.wsj.com/articles/the-philadelphia-eagles-secret-coaches-professors-1410890601

    There are still things I don’t like about the guy, but coming from a sport psychology background, I respect his ability to remain innovative and seek assistance wherever it may be useful.

    Didn’t he even ask Riley for help once with player conduct/behavioral issues (Blount)?

      • He’s a great leader, strategist, motivator, organizer…..I felt like he was probably not ethical and honest which is fine for the NFL where it’s all about money and winning. I think he REALLY wanted to coach where the champion is determined by play, not polls.

        I am actually interested in watching the Eagles, and I don’t watch pro ball. The way Kelly can take a QB like Foles and maximize his abilities and production, or a higher end athlete like McCoy or Sproles…putting 3 or 4 TEs out there…it’s interesting to me.

    • Riley told him to keep Blount out through the Civil War and added he wouldnt bother game planning for him because he trusted Chip would take his advice

      • That’s my biggest problem with him. His lack of ethics. He said Blount was out for the entire season. Then brought him back just to win the Civil War. I get that college football is all about winning, but that left a sour taste about his honesty toward expectations.

        • bill belichick does things like this by fudging the injury report. Some kid below faked his own death on the field. Strategy is all it is, and a coach should never trust the opposing coach.

          • I don’t fault Kelly for Riley’s ineptitude in that CW. I approach it strictly from a humanistic approach. Actions have consequences and Kelly allowing Blount to play merely reinforced that athletes are held to a different standard than the rest of society.

          • Ideally I agree, but that is not how the world works and likely never will. Knowing that, the coach should expect Blount to play. I know a lot of us fans did.

        • I think Kelly said something along the line of Blount not playing on Saturdays for the football team. The game was played on a Thursday or Friday that year…

  15. Came across this when I was looking for another fake dead play. Didn’t find what I was looking for, but I remembered seeing this play happen live. A guy decided to streak an Arizona/UCLA game a couple of years ago. He dressed up as a referee and somehow sneaked his way onto the sidelines. Then, he blew his whistle and called a play dead just before half time, and the other refs bought it and all came in blowing the play dead. Then the guy ran up to the ref who had the ball and grabbed it out of his hands and ran away while trying to rip his uniform off. Found a video from the fan perspective since the tv view doesn’t show the whole thing as well. We need more of this stuff in college football.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NiUr7QR-iQ

    • Banker seems to accept that he’s a good player, but wants him to pay more attention to the details…

      Lack of attention to detail is something that Banker has been crtisized about in the past.

  16. I have a bad feeling about this game. I’m calling the SDSU upset 27-20. But the good news is I’ve been wrong on all my upset picks so far this year.

    • I’m still taking the Beavs. I don’t think they have the letdown again this week like they did in Hawaii. Defense is also built to stop teams like SDSU. Home game. Leaving Mannion in to get stats.

  17. Phil Steele’s report is out:

    San Diego State (1-1, 0-0 MW), Power Rating: 119, Offense: #74, Defense: #76, ST: #50
    Oregon State (2-0, 0-0 P12), Power Rating: 127, Offense: #43, Defense: #32, ST: #51

    Both tms enter fresh off a bye but the sked does favor SDSt as they have a home date with
    UNLV on deck while OSt has to travel to USC. The Beavers were very fortunate to get the
    win on the road LY as they were down 24-14 at HT & 30-21 4Q. They scored 2 late tdā€™s incl
    the gm winner on a 16 yd IR td w/2:23 left in the gm. The Aztecs are certainly capable of
    playing tough on the road as they had a 24-14 4Q lead at UNC, but were then outscored 17-
    3 to lose 31-27. SDSt did have 23-20 FD, 509-394 yd & 37:26-22:34 TOP edges in that
    gm. OSt knows what SDSt is capable of and after getting a scare LY, wonā€™t take them
    lightly despite their big conf opener on deck.

    OREGON STATE 30, SAN DIEGO STATE 21

    San Diego State QB/WR’s vs Oregon State DB’s: ORST +0.90
    San Diego State RB’s vs Oregon State LB’s: ORST +0.64
    San Diego State OL vs Oregon State DL: SDST +0.50

    San Diego State DL vs Oregon State OL: SDST +0.46
    San Diego State LB’s vs Oregon State RB’s: ORST +0.51
    San Diego State DB’s vs Oregon State QB/WR’s: ORST +2.17

    Special Teams: SDST +0.54
    Kicker: ORST +0.80
    Coaches: ORST +0.35

    Total: ORST 5.38, SDST 1.49 – Postional Edge Oregon State 3.89

    Projected Statistics: SDST ORST

    Projected Rushing 105 134
    Projected Passing 191 338
    Projected Yardage Total 296 472

    Projected Final Score-PC 21 29
    Experience Rankings 104 51
    Team Schedule Strength 95 98

      • Riley/Banker > Long/Toldeo?

        Seems like a wash to me. Scheme-wise, SDSU can pay dearly and badly for its blitzing….Riley can mismanage time, Riley/Banker can be too slow to adjust to within-game developments.

        Don’t know how OSU gets the kicker edge AND loses ST rating? I thought OSU coverage teams were supposed to be pretty good. OSU punting isn’t bad….

  18. Oregon State 37, San Diego St. 24

    Game shouldn’t even be this close but Riley taps the brakes halfway through the 4th and it allows SDSU a late touchdown.

    We rush for 156 and Mannion throws for 264 for 420 yards of total offense.

    • Good find.
      That is very similar to how I feel about ncaa football. As you get older you realize how pathetic it is to cling to the school or live vicariously through jocks. I once read we sleep 1/3 of our lives. Between that and football I probably spent half my life. It’s healthy for everyone to step back from watching sports. Much better to do things than watch others do them. Thanks for the link. Sorry for the rant.

    • in other words neither is even close. Idk why angry has such a mancrush on Vanderveen. I don’t see it. But I’m been wrong many many many many many many many fucking times before.

        • It is surprising to see Del Rio at #2. The consensus amongst the press and observers was that Vanderveen was easily #2. I haven’t seen any mancrush action, but people in AB are pushing to have the backup play more, assuming in prep for next year. In previous seasons, it was more about playing the back up to avoid having Mannion get hurt.

        • In the Fall scrimmage I attended at Reser, Vanderveen clearly outplayed DelRio. This appeared to be the consensus view of everyone who attended the scrimmage — it was that obvious. Shortly afterwards, Vanderveen was moved to #2, ahead of DelRio (so i guess it was obvious to the coaches, too).

          Interesting that DelRio this week moved ahead of Vanderveen to take the #2 QB position. Perhaps DelRio has played a lot better over the past month in practices. Or perhaps Vanderveen has regressed. Or both. Or maybe something else is going on.

          Personally, I am a bit surprised, since Vanderveen looked so much better in the scrimmage. But that scrimmage was a while ago, and I haven’t attended a practice since then. I’d be curious to know whether AB’s who have been attending practices lately have noticed anything that would explain DelRio’s promotion and/or Vanderveen’s demotion.

  19. OT: the Ducks have beaten WSU seven consecutive times, averaged 52.4 points in those victories and won by an average of 32.1 points.

    I think they have beat UW 10 straight times? A “decade of dominance?” And will likely (in my opinion, if they stay healthy) beat OSU for the 7th straight time…

    Sure, these seasons coincide with pretty significant WSU and UW down cycles, and OSU achieves BDC/Riley’s tight standards for mediocrity, but time flies and in looking back I’m a little surprised how many seasons UO has now dominated NW teams

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