06.Oct.2015 Oregon State @ Arizona

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Alright, doods, back on track here.

So as I was saying below, I think the Beavs have weather and start time as the intangible working against them. In order to make up for that handicap, they need to bring their own intangibles, and I actually think they do. Playing a difficult early schedule could help here. Stanford and Michigan, two of the more physical teams in college this year, should have toughened up the Beavs. And this is the most interesting part of the game to me: did the Beavs learn (physicality) from their loses or not? If so, then they were Laevinic defeats. Those are the types of defeats we want: “alright, we lost, but we learned xyz, and it will never happen again.” Riley teams never seemed to have it, and now we see how quickly Andersen can instill that trait.

Another key to this game: Seth Collins has walked a tightrope thus far with turnovers. He should be coughing it up more than he is given his reckless style and iffy throws. Collins has been serviceable so far, if we’re being fair. I just think he has the law of averages working against him.

So my feeling: if Collins luck doesn’t run out, and the Beavs learned how to be physical, they can very easily win this game. And visa versa. In the pre-season I had this marked as a loss. This Conference is erratic, though. Each week we seem to have surprising outcomes (that maybe shouldn’t be surprising anymore). It tells me the teams are all close, even the perceived “bad” teams. And conversely, the teams at the top probably aren’t all that good. Utah might be the best team in the conference. They’ve been the most consistent. Anyway, I am sticking to this one being a loss, but have an underlying positive feeling about it, too. Beav’s depth is so thin, and that might show again as this game goes on. I expect an even game until the 4th quarter when the Beavs finally wear down.

Let’s be clear: this is a season defining game. If they can win this, it changes all expectations and puts the program ahead of schedule. For this reason, it’s a big game. The two games after this (Washington State and Colorado) should be wins, so they can conceivably win three games in a row. They can also drop all three (i.e. the volatility of a young, growing team).

31-24, Arizona.

Go Beavs!

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  • bleedorange says:
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    Im feeling good about this game coming off the bye week i think is huge for us. Add in the fact that they had to take a beating from a physical stanford team i think a big win is very likely. I think ur right about seth having very low turnovers and averages. But he seems to get better each week and did pass for i think 275 and zonas d is terrible. I think we’ll be able to run the ball to victory and control the clock and protect seth.

    Beavs win 38 to 24

    • angry angry says:
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      Yes, somehow I forgot to mention the bye. It is huge, and especially since Arizona got beaten down.

  • Numbers says:
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    Does this mean I’m no longer Grand Poobah??? ????

  • AKBeaver AKBeaver says:
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    I agree with bleedorange that AZ coming off a Stanford beating and us of a bye bodes well. AZ has a horrid defense this year that has allowed back to back 50 point games. If Solomon is out, which is very likely, they’ll have a horrible QB starting. Most teams might overlook a team in this situation but our team is young enough not to know better and Andersen wouldn’t allow it anyways. We’ll see a healthy dose of Storm, Brown, and Nall with Collins making some nice deep throws. The D will be hydrated and ready to play.

    31-17 good guys

  • PdXBeav says:
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    On Collins and turnovers (lack of). Maybe that should start to be defined as a quality. Maybe he won’t have a penchant of losing the ball. Time will tell on this, but it is becoming a trend in a positive direction.

    • GreatWhiteHunter says:
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      He sure makes me nervous with his whirling dervish runs though…

  • cj cj says:
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    Go Beavs!

    24-10 — too damned hot for the Beavs to score more than 24, unless ST come through. The D holds together, though.

  • angry angry says:
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    Beavs have won 6 in a row down there? Is that true? That’s impressive if true.

    I like the optimism. AZ seems soft and vulnerable…pretty much agree with what everyone is saying. Beavs should have a shot at an “upset” here.

    • BeavLaxer says:
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      True. And the Beavs have won 12 of the last 14 from the Wildcats starting in 1999… yet the overall record against them is an ugly 14-21, which means before 1999, the Beavs were 2-19 vs the AZ Wildcats.

      • thatguy says:
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        Yeah as far as program history, that lil 27 year period of futility really hurts because we lost to EVERYBODY. A lot of 1 and 2 win seasons with the Civil War being two crappy teams playing. I really prefer to use the most recent 20 years instead of entire program records because it’s not even funny how bad OSU was for that time.

        Funny enough how we’ve now had a 26 year run of NCAA tournament absence too in hoops. Something about that generational gap.

        • BeavLaxer says:
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          Yup, that was a dark period at OSU.

          The Beavs winning percentage against the Pac-10 (not 12) foes is STILL under 50% for all of them. Interestingly, 2 wins vs Cal and we hit 50% which is the closest… only 6 straight wins vs the Duck$ and we get to 50%

        • Jim says:
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          Then we were saved by Saint Riley! Hip hip! Hooray!

  • angry angry says:
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    Oh man, Inspector Clouseau retired.

    http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2015/10/oregon_state_beavers_linebacke_16.html#incart_river

    That’s a bummer. He was a funny subplot.

    • beavblazer beavblazer says:
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      I was just coming here to ask if he was the guy you dubbed Clouseau. So there you have it, one more roster spot for next year’s class (or a wash considering Caleb Smith is redshirting)

      • blackbug says:
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        I am pretty certain that he is still a walkon player.

    • GreatWhiteHunter says:
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      Bummer…I like to see those 2A boys having some success, even if it is a kid from rival Oakland!

    • Jack says:
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      Well… good and bad for him.

      Good decision, though.

  • World Starr Wildcat says:
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    Whut up guys? Your predicting a low scoring game from Arizona? Wow Ok. I guess we’ll see because Rich Rod is known for great offense and you guys are starting over on both sides of the ball.

    Say what you will about our injuries in previous games but our home crowd makes a big difference and I see it being a factor but there is no buzz about this game so worried a little about crowd size and craziness.

    Part of why I think Wildcats will win is because I haven’t seen very much from you guys on offense this year so wondering why you all seem so optimistic? (Even though I expect that on a site like this) What makes you think something will be different and you’ll be able to move the ball and score?

    thanks

    Az – 49
    OSU – 9

    • angry angry says:
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      I’m not sure if this is trolling or a real question, but anyway, I think fans have seen progression in the offense over the first month. The numbers aren’t good, but they seem on the cusp of having a breakout game where things click. Against a soft D like Arizona, it’s very possible.

      Not sure what you mean by “on a site like this” since we’ve been bearish on the Beavs for years.

      • bendbeaver bendbeaver says:
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        Az had 314 yards of offense against furd, Beavs had 386 yards.

        • wannabeav says:
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          and would have had 50 more but for that bogus holding call

    • Tlingit Cannon Tlingit Cannon says:
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      Ha still mad bout getting pounded last few games?

    • Scooby dubya do Scooby dubya do says:
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      How many tackles to home crowd make in that UCLA game?

    • OSUman says:
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      For starters, Oregon State scored more against Stanford than Arizona did. Also returning basically starters at all positions except qb helps

      • Corliss says:
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        ….and we have the best passing defense in the Pac 12. And the third best defense in the P12.

        • Corliss says:
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          ….and zona has the worst defense in the P12.

          • Corliss says:
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            …and they have at most 2 returning starters on the oline. And zona has a young dline that wasn’t good last year.

          • whiskey soaked napkins whiskey soaked napkins says:
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            idk. Oregon might give them a run for their money

    • Jack says:
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      Shall we compare our offenses against one like opponent? How about our defenses?

  • beavblazer beavblazer says:
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    Not sure if I liked reading this or not. The team seems to sounds confident they see gaps in the Arizona defense they can exploit. Not sure why they’d bother saying anything in the first place though?

    http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/sports/college/oregon-state/2015/10/05/beavers-excited-play-suspect-arizona-defense/73423394/

    Also, Arizona had a rough week on offense last week vs Stanford, but were without Solomon. My guess is he’ll be back this week.

    • beavergopher beavergopher says:
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      Anus Solomon. He shitty.

    • mckalk says:
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      Seems like bulletin board material to me and that’s not needed from an unproven team like the Beavs.

  • Issaquahbeav says:
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    Until OSU can consistently put 30+ points up on its opponents, I’m not predicting too many wins, let alone road games. This D isn’t ready to keep spread option, PAC-12 teams below 30 points a game IMO. Then again, the Riley pessimism hadn’t left my body yet.

  • Tlingit Cannon Tlingit Cannon says:
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    Michigan and Stanford don’t allow many points homie

  • Jack says:
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    Wow. Yankee Stadium is empty ten minutes til first pitch. Don’t they have an airport?

    • Jack says:
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      So weird seeing Houston in the junior league. It seems like only yesterday they were playing a one-off against the Dodgers for a playoff spot… or the 86 NLCS.

      It’s funny to think there will be a generation 20 years from now that didn’t know the Astros once played real baseball.

  • Bill says:
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    The spread is about right -10pts.

    If they win this game, it’s a good step forward. They need to have at least a good showing because the WSU, Colorado, UW games are all toss ups right now. A bad loss may send the team on a downward spiral that they don’t recover from.

  • oneoldbeav oneoldbeav says:
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    Welcome back, buddy. Can’t argue with your concern about Collins’s luck running out. I’m with GWH on his ball security when running, and am surprised he has only one int so far.
    In discussing the Beavs losses, you mention learning xyz from them. I think this is key, not just learning one thing but each position coach taking away something for his guys to improve upon; I feel this staff has the energy and interest to do that.

    As for the game, while disappointed that the Inspector won’t be around, I look for the D to keep it close. Maybe even close enough to overcome a turnover. I hope we see some improvement on Special Teams, but it mainly comes down to offense. I’m lookin’ for the Beavs to prevail: 24-17.

  • Jim says:
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    27-24, orange and black (assuming Solomon is out)

  • BeavGirl BeavGirl says:
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    Those are the types of defeats we want: “alright, we lost, but we learned xyz, and it will never happen again.”

    Where I work this happens all the time only it’s the opposite of the desired outcome. Employees will get a bad review on work they’ve done and they become defeated/demoralized/ignore the feedback instead of taking it and improving. It’s sooo frustrating when I watch employees exhibit this behavior because they’re only digging themselves a deeper hole. I really really hope the Beavs don’t get like that, it’s pretty much the worst.

  • ObjCritic says:
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    Wow.

    “Over two weeks, the Wildcats have given up 111 points and 1,067 yards.”

    “They (OSU) should be able to move the ball against the Wildcats, who are yielding 35.2 points (106th nationally) and 453.2 yards (110th) a contest. ”

    Can we get heavy doses of Woods and Nall? Will Lucas finally get the ball?

    http://www.pamplinmedia.com/pt/12-sports/275916-151717-kerry-says-liking-arizona-barely

    • beavers4life says:
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      Tune in Saturday at 1 pm on Fox Sports 1 to find out if Oregon State can defeat the pesky Wildcats in the desert!

    • Shontay Vasquez says:
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      Lucas did finally get the ball all for positive yards. Great speed & vision. We hope to see lots more…

  • carltogr carltogr says:
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    31-24, flip a coin.

  • Corliss says:
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    Sumner Houston now the second string nose tackle with an “or” between him and Vakameilalo

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