Home Football Oregon State @ Arizona (Game Week)

Oregon State @ Arizona (Game Week)

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In the prior comments, I explained that if you’re not seeing the recruiting feed it’s due to the AdBlock Plus plugin in Firefox. This leads me to concluded any/all issues with the Twitter feed are due to individual browser settings. Companies have been locking down more and more on their browsers. You might have to go in and manually adjust the settings.

As far as the Arizona game, I think we all agree this is the Beav’s best shot at a win. For some reason I thought this game was at home, but I must have confused it with ASU. That’s unfortunate because at home I’d take the Beavs in this one, but on the road I’m going Arizona by a hair.

34-31, Arizona.

Cursory watch of Arizona tells me Tate isn’t the player he once was, but he’s still good enough and mobile enough to make the difference. Beavs are riding their confidence and are rested, so they have a shot if everything clicks. We’re about due for the “good Luton” to show up, too (i.e. bad D).

Go Beavs.

131 COMMENTS

  1. AZ defense is one of the worst in the nation and they will have a bit of turmoil from firing their d coordinator.

    The defense is the key to winning the game. Pass rush will be the biggest indicator. If they can pressure the QB consistently they’ll make a lot of stops. AZ will play two QBs but it won’t matter if the Beavs are getting into the backfield. Tate can still run but he isn’t the guy who can shake defenders anymore. The other QB is not a runner. Great chance for the LB crew to have a spotlight moment. Getting them into 3rd and longs is huge.

    I expect the offense to move the ball on the ground a lot. Luton has been better when he throws less. Under 30 attempts a game is ideal. So if Jefferson is ready to go, he and Pierce have the potential to run all over AZ.

    I see a shootout. 40 plus points will win the game. AZ isn’t a comeback team so a big lead early might take them out of the game.

    Reasons to win –
    The Cal game showed the Beavs can respond to adversity and come out on top.
    For some reason they play better on the road.
    Guys are starting to mature and improve their games.
    AZ is in a freefall.

    Reasons to lose
    Not playing a backup QB
    Relying too much on Luton
    Defense is still susceptible to giving up a lot of yards

    • 1
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      Reasons to lose……

      Arizona firing its DC and linebackers coaches gives them the needed kick in the ass.

      I predict a 35-0 Beavs loss and I won’t be watching.

      Hey! It worked last time.

      Won’t be watching. I’ll be driving back from Reno with my new dishwasher, I mean Mrs Whiskey.

  2. Angry, not of high importance, but thought I’d mention, I’m still running into issues when trying to subscribe posts.
    Now, when I check the subscribe button, the system sends me an email “Please confirm your subscription” but when I click on the confirmation link, it takes me to an error message.
    “Ooops… Error 404
    Sorry, but the page you are looking for doesn’t exist.”

    Has anybody else had success with subscribing to posts?

      • 2
        1

        I hardly ever make predictions, I’m sure I won’t be close this time. Either the Beavs are playing with house money with three wins already or they are better than we all anticipated and are going to get one or two more. Utah is pretty much embarrassing every other team except USC, so no disgrace in that loss.

  3. 4
    1

    Bet the farm, house, first born, etc. on a Beav loss……..I will be in Tucson at the game.
    I apologize for bringing my toxic luck to bear on a possibly winnable game, but we have a bye week here in Minneapolis and a childhood friend invited me down.
    80 degrees sounded better than 40.

  4. 11

    A few threads ago I was talking about my upcoming marriage and my wife that passed away in 2011. A few you shared some stories about your own personal battles and shit you’ve gone through. I did read all of your responses.

    And Angry, I am truly sorry to hear about what a family member of yours is going through right now.

    If any of you and I ever cross paths at a beaver game, the beers are on me.

    Peace, degenerates.

    • I will take you up on the beer. Do you have any more Sandusky jokes? The last one was epic. Big showdown with Penn State on Nov 9. and I need new material. Congrats on the marriage.

  5. Hopefully the team healed up during the bye week…..

    4 of these last 5 games are winnable. Due to the opposing defenses that I’ve watched. Will they? Probably not.

    At least there’s really only two games they weren’t competitive in so far this year.

    IF they manage to beat UA on the road, 6-6 and a bowl game is very possible. ASU at home. UW hasn’t been world beaters either. Just sayin.

    Fuck! Those 3 point losses to Hawaii and Stanford really suck a big fat donkey cock! If the Beavs were 5-2 right now this game would be for bowl eligibility.

    Maybe I said it last week…..

    It was nice to see the Beavs face sone adversity vs Cal. Had a lead. Lost it. Came back and took it for the W. Good to win a close game. They’d been on the losing end of those. I did say this this. Gotta learn to walk before you learn to run. Those close losses to Hawaii and Stanford gave them some needed experience on what it took to win a close game in crunch time at the end. A kicker would’ve helped in those two losses though.

    I’ve been critical of Tibesar and Smith. It’s entirely possible I’ve been wrong. If and when that time comes, I will gladly eat crow.

    These guys are getting better.

    • I’m not so critical on coaches for on the field performances other than not getting players ready to play. I actually enjoy watching this team play now. The Utah game easily made me as a fan feel, “Oh great! Here we go again!” What the CAL game showed me was the team has Grit and are determined to play for the school, the coaches, and the fans. They know wins need to happen to get the fans to believe in them, but I’m really liking this team’s mentality when on the road. Could we win 4 out of 5 games and go to a Bowl game? Yes, absolutely. Will it happen? They need to be able to show they can win at home other than Cal Poly. They need to game prep for home games like they game prep for road games. 2-1 road record is outstanding! just need to continue to build upon the success. If the defense is able to play like they did against CAL and even improve their performance, then we have a better shot at beating Arizona in their stadium.

      • @beavers4life

        I agree, I actually am willing to set aside time to watch the games or even attend some of them. It’s been fun going to games this year. The crowds aren’t that great but it’s still decently loud. Mostly competitive games as mentioned above and it’ll lead to fans coming back. Wins are preferable but a competitive team who isn’t embarrassing is refreshing. I think the Husky game will be fun. Friday night and weather has been awesome around here. I might even ride my bike to the game :)

    • I blame Hamelcar on that jump the line shit he pulled on Stanford’s field goal attempt. The kick was good, and Shaw would have been good with the three points — instead Furd scores a TD — the difference of the game and win hanging on that four point difference. Of course you could blame the coaches for putting Hamelcar in on SPecial teams…. he doesn’t need to be playing special teams, probably didn’t understand the rules.

  6. Conference offensive PPG:
    Arizona 26
    Oregon State 25

    The big difference is we’ve played 2 of the top 3 defenses in the conference (Utah and Cal), while Arizona has played none. Heck, Utah’s defense is in the top 5 in the whole country.

    I think we’re evenly matched on offense and Arizona’s defense is possibly worse than ours. Should be one of those close games that’s determined by specific matchips. I know Tate isn’t running as much as he used to, but he still ran for 100+ last week. It’s hard to pick the Beavs on the road against a mobile QB.

    Or maybe we’re all shell-shocked from decades of Banker and Kevin Clown and Tibesar will actually know what he’s doing?

  7. I’m almost scared of the D getting pressure like they did against cal. I’m afraid that it will just cause Tate to take off and run on them.

  8. JJ Taylor ran for 284 yards against the Oregon State defense last year. Two hundred eighty-four yards.
    His numbers have been lower this year, but I could see him licking hos chops getting ready for OSU this week.

    • Beaversedge has a breakdown through the first 7 games and the beavers are allowing about 100 yds less rushing this year. Hopefully that shows up Saturday and we can contain both taylor and tate rushing or at least slow them down.

      • Tate has like 300 yards rushing. I think he had 1400 in ’17. He’s not the same guy…guess he had some injuries? He can still run enough to kill the Beavs but he shouldn’t be a total matchup nightmare like in the past.

      • That’s a little bit of fool’s gold. The main teams that killed us with the rushing attack last year we have yet to play this year.
        Our numbers are definitely better this year on a strictly statistical average (partially due to longer offensive possessions for us as well as competition). But I need to see us actually stop or slow a team that is known for their rushing attack before I can say we’re turning a corner on defense.

        Last year,
        Ohio Stat ran for 375 total team yards.
        JJ Taylor(284) and Arizona ran for 442 total team yards.
        Eno Benjamin(312(!!)) and ASU ran for 396 total team yards.
        Verdell and Dye each ran for nearly 200 yards and Oregon gained nearly 400 rushing yards against us.

        We have to play 3 of those teams in the next month.

    • Okay that was painful and sad but I just had to review opposing backs last year. Note I am only looking at the TOP back per game by opposing teams.

      1) Mike Weber – 186 yds 3 TDs. Next best 104 yds 1 td (Michigan State)
      2) James Fellia – 51 yds…260 yds on the whole season
      3) Toa Taua – 81 yds 1 TD. 5th best performance in 2018
      4) JJ Taylor – 284 yds 2 TD. Next best 212 yds 2 tds (Oregon) and 192 yds 0 tds (Colorado)
      5) Eno Benjamin – 312 yds 3 TD. Next best 185 yds 2 Td (USC)
      6) James Williams – 56 yds (78 receiving 1 td). 2nd best of the season.
      7) Patrick Laird – 193 yds 2 TD. Next best 116 yd (Stanford)
      8) Travon McMillian – 132 yd 1 TD. 3rd best of the seaon (2nd was 136 yd so don’t get too excited).
      9) Aca’Cedric Ware – 205 yds 3 TD. Next best 173 yds 2 TD (Arizona)
      10) Bryce Love – 90 yds 1 TD. 2nd best of the season
      11) Myles Gaskin – 135 yd 1 TD. 3rd best of the season
      12) Travis Dye – 199 yds 2 TD. Next best 115 yd 1 TD (California)

      So in review only 1 back didn’t have a top 3 performance when playing against us last year. This years data is incomplete but because that misery made me sad and I am a true hero here is how we are doing this year.

      1) Chuba Hubbard 221 yd 3 td. 3rd best so far (holy shit this dude is a slayer)
      2) Miles Reed 42 yd. 4th best this season.
      3) Duy Tran-Sampson 137 yd. 3rd best this season.
      4) Cameron Scarlett 92 yds. 5th best this season.
      5) Demetric Felton 166 rushing/recieving 1 TD. 2nd or 3rd best this season.
      6) Zack Moss 121 yd 2 TD. 2nd best rushing but he had 177 APY 2 TD (ASU) and 204 APY 2 TD (CAL)
      7) Modster had this one but im just looking at backs. Christopher Brown Jr. 49 yd 1 TD. 3rd best this season but 5th best if you look at APY. (Better than Oregon even)

      So in review last season was historically bad and this season backs are not having that great of games against us.

      • 2
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        The nice increase in TFL’s is telling us there’s some improvement going on. Also, the increase in sacks is going to bring the rushing totals down.

        • I don’t have data to back this but I think the majority of yards are coming from big plays. We make dumb mistakes and opponents go house but I don’t think we are being ground down at 5 yards a pop. Like you said though tfl make a big dent and force more passing plays.

    • Holy shit, glad everybody is ok. I was having nightmares of this exact thing happening here last night while hearing that wind.

    • Alpha where you live at? I’m a structural engineer licensed in several states. Might be able to help out with a repair report for insurance.

      Glad y’all are okay, trees are terrifying

          • I do design work too if you want to do additions or something. Don’t need to be licensed in the state to knock out floor plans and elevations!

            Goes without saying but anyone on here can feel free to contact me with structural questions in their lives. My degree is in nuclear Engineering, licensed in mechanical and work as a partner in a structural firm. If you guys have questions about the fundamentals of how our universe works or if your tailgate tent is gonna blow away I can probably help out.

          • NuclearBeav, can you help us with figuring out how to get Oregon State football back to the Rose Bowl? Or would that be against the laws of universal physics?

            Also, can you help us figure out what happened to Jack?

          • From what I have gleaned from peaking back I think jack may have had a meta-physical breakdown and joined the aether of the universe. You may try a seance to awaken his wandering spirit from the endless energy stream or whatever.

            Back to the rose bowl is simple. Money, time, good coaching and luck. I think we have two of those so we just need to not be the lowest invested team in the pac 12 and exchange sexual favors with lady luck and we are on our way. That or force some caps on how much universities spend on college football, it really is getting absurd.

    • Alpha, I admire your response to the tree just missing your wife. A good reminder that we never know how many opportunities we’ll have to share our feelings.
      Good luck with the repair, and dealing with the insurance company hoops.

        • Yikes dude that’s a close one.

          When I bought my house we had a huge black walnut tree right between the house and my shop, spanning probably 20 feet over the top of both. Goddamn thing held it’s huge wet leaves til December and every time we’d have freezing rain or wind I just knew one of those big ass horizontal branches was going to break off and destroy everything.

          It was a great day when my brother rented a boom lift and dropped that bastard where it stood.

  9. Guys, thank you for the thoughts. I live in three rivers between Sunriver and LA Pine. Wife is on the phone with insurance right now, just glad she and baby are ok. Thanks again guys!

  10. Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. And cream filled turnovers too! Beavs get to Tate and force him to fumble, Beavs win by 5, if not, Wildcats by 3.

    31-28 Arizona

  11. My predictions are usually overly optimistic and silly but here goes.

    44-17 Oregon State.

    I think Arizona is in free fall with poor offensive line play and struggling QBs. Its the perfect matchup for our defense. Their defense is awful at pass coverage and the only reason their run defense is doing alright is cause no one really bothers running. Teams that have talented run games (Washington and USC) that they faced ripped them for over 200 yards. That and their coaching in disarray I don’t see them coming in with much swagger. A new DC on short notice might introduce some wrinkles but it also might just confuse the players even more.

    My prediction includes a missed xp, I think Hayes trajectory is a bit low sometimes and hes opening himself for a paw.

    • I think how Az responds to the coaching changes is a fair question. Is it a kick in the ass, or do the players just pack it in? I don’t know enough about the HC to speculate as to whether or not he can stabilize the team and get marked performance improvements in such a short amount of time. If the players have developed poor technique/habits, it may not be so easy to turn around their performance. Certainly wasn’t with OSU’s defense; which is showing improvement this year in terms of sacks and TFLs at least.

  12. CNBC is reporting the NCAA is set to rule that college athletes can be compensated for the use of their likeness, image, etc.

    So…game over, right? How does this not end poorly for programs without mega-donors? Or are we already living in a world where money is buying wins and this won’t change much?

      • Scholarship limits will be pointless. Need another 5* WR but don’t have any available scholarships?
        Just work out an endorsement deal with a donor(Nike…cough cough) and they’ll be yours.

  13. I’m getting a good feeling about UA game. Thinking we’ll move the ball well and score some points. Expect a high scoring game and beav win. Say 42-38. Beavs score TD with less than minute to go and then hold on as UA drives into red zone but runs out of time. That said, Beavs never win when I think they will so won’t be surprise with a huge let down

  14. After studying AB (I’m sure) Eggers adds 4 pts to angry’s prediction for each team and forecasts a 38-34 ‘zona win. He seems pretty certain JJ will play, saying, Jermar Jefferson, also slowed with a foot injury through much of this season, is expected to play Saturday and divide duties with Artavis Pierce at running back.

    I’m gonna differ with Kerry on both counts. After listening to Lindgren, I doubt JJ plays at all and certainly not enough to be termed “dividing duties” (taken to mean at least 35-40% of the snaps). Even in the heat I expect AP and BJ Baylor to keep each other fresh enough to get the job done.

    While I’m at it, I’ll differ with Eggers on Bradford as well; doubt he’ll play this week based, again, on Lindgren’s remarks.

    https://pamplinmedia.com/pt/12-sports/442063-354302-kerry-says-beavers-win-could-lead-to-bowl-game

  15. I think we take it on the road. I just have a good feeling about this game. Even though it’s for essentially nothing, I’m encouraged that the team is still fighting, when a few Gary Andersen/Riley teams in the past looked like they were quitting when the chips were down.

    I predict that this will be the game that shows us what Tibesar’s capable of, which will be the reason why the playbook will remain open on the offensive side.

    35-14 OSU

        • I agree with that. The D was also down difference makers like Roberts…onu spent most the game showing how to miss tackles. I got that on what on but I posted a silver linings post calling out Speights, Austin and some other young guys for playing well.

  16. PHIL STEELE REPORT (WEEK 7):
    #49 Oregon State at #95 Arizona

    Last time here (2017) the Wildcats finished with a school-record 534 rushing yds in the 49-28 victory (UA had 3 different players w/100+ rush yds). OSU has dropped the past 2 in this series by 21 ppg. UA is 5-14 the last 19 in this series, but has won 3 of the last 4 years including a 35-14 victory (-5’) last year in Corvallis where RB JJ Taylor ran for a Reser Stadium record 284 yds. AZ had a 331-122 yd edge at half but missed 2 FG and only led 14-7. AZ got TD’s on their 1st 3 2H poss. There was an incredible run of 5 straight outright upsets in the series from 2018-’12 but the favorite is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS since with Arizona winning their last 2 home games by 21 and 37 points. Sumlin is 6-4 ATS in Tucson but Oregon St is fresh off a bye and Arizona is playing a 6th straight week. Arizona was 4-1 and led Washington at the half 17-13 but have been outscored the last 10 quarters by 120-55. QB Tate has not regained his 2017 form and while he has had his moments like throwing for 404 yards at Colorado one week after missing a game, he has also
    been benched a couple of times and is hitting 62% with a 12-8 ratio and just 303 (4.9) rushing but he did have 103 rush vs Stanford. AZ’s D is allowing 52 ypg more than their foes average. I said in the magazine that this years’ OSU team is at least two TD’s better than last year and Jonathan Smith has already pulled upsets at UCLA and at California and they are 3-0 ATS as an AD this year. Jake Luton is hitting 59% with a super 16-1 ratio and Artavis Pierce has rushed for 583 (6.0). Against 3 common foes OSU is +4 ppg and +16 ypg and Ariz is -5 ppg and -9 ypg. Arizona has Oregon, Utah and Ariz St on deck so this is a must win if they are to make a bowl and things are getting desperate as they just fired DC Yates.
    FORECAST: ARIZONA 37 OREGON STATE 30

    POSITION BY POSITION EDGES:

    WHEN OREGON STATE HAS THE BALL:
    Oregon State QB/WR vs Arizona DB’s: ORST +0.26
    Oregon State RB’s vs Arizona LB’s: ORST +0.97
    Oregon State OL vs Arizona DL: ORST +1.38

    WHEN ARIZONA HAS THE BALL
    Arizona QB/WR vs Oregon State DB’s: ARIZ +2.24
    Arizona RB’s vs Oregon State LB’s: ARIZ +0.89
    Arizona OL vs Oregon State DL: ARIZ +0.78

    MISCELLANEOUS:
    Special Teams: ORST +2.92
    Kicking: ARIZ +1.77
    Coaching: ARIZ +1.50

    POSITIONAL EDGE AWARDED TO: ARIZ +1.65

    Team Stats (ORST-ARIZ)
    Projected Rushing: 166-224
    Projected Passing: 254-304
    Projected Yardage Total: 420-528
    Projected Final Score: 32-37
    Experience Rankings: 7-55
    Team Schedule Strength: 46-40

    Las Vegas Line: Arizona by 5.5
    Las Vegas Total: 71.5 Points
    +/- Ratings: Arizona by 2.8
    Game Grade: Arizona by 5.0
    Computer Yards: Arizona 528-420
    Computer Points: Arizona 37-32

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