Home Football Political Climates of Geographies Determining Football Seasons?

Political Climates of Geographies Determining Football Seasons?

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It seems like the politics of the Midwest vs the West are going to be the biggest hurdle now in which fans get to watch football, and which players get to play football. Before the Big10 announcement, I thought the biggest hurdle would be lawsuits. My theory on that is that Trump/the Government gave these institutions a wink and nod that such lawsuits or damages wouldn’t be considered. Waivers will have to be signed and will be upheld, is the likely way that will work.

To the bigger issue, for better or worse, the South and Midwest don’t care about safety; they just want to see football and make that revenue. West cares about safety and upholding their progressive image, but they also want that revenue. This puts them more in a bind. Seems to be why the PAC will be a month to a month and a half behind the Big10. Have to do image/damage control under the guise of confirming the reliability of testing, caring about safety, being good progressives, etc. I don’t necessarily disagree with the safety aspect, but I do wish it was genuine rather than an image to uphold, and that’s why I’m being a bit catty about it.

Big picture: at this point everyone seems over the virus. The economy is 72% open, up from 53% at the lows, which might be about the best we can do due to social and structural issues with the remaining 28%, but it suggests an overall “I’m over it” vibe. For this reason, momentum is now to play a season. If that’s the case, I wish the Pac would just follow the Big10’s lead and shoot for October. There’s not going to be much of a difference in testing, vaccines, or anything else but image in that one month.

507 COMMENTS

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      But it should be contingent on the Pac-12 to advocate for their view. At a minimum the Pac-12 should hold another vote. These institutions are immensely important to their respective states and they can change the outcome by working with or applying pressure to governors (assuming they decide to vote to play).

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    Note Trump encouraged B10 to “play ball!” and said it was needed (likely because politically there are key battleground states) but when NFL started he and family members said “Football is boring.” Which it can be, but he’s using college football politically in the midwest while continuing to attack the “Kneeling-during-anthem” NFL for more national politics…

    PAC could move up to mid-October without any meaningful change in safety, and i think if season is cancelled, get to that Q&A sooner.

  2. Ben Wetzler chimes in via twitter:
    Larry Scott putting the tough decisions on other ppl to deflect the blame… Classic
    – Easy way out cancelling the season
    – other Power 5 leaving him in the cold
    – Pac still isn’t ready to play
    – Sits back and enjoys 5.3 mil a year
    – Sets Pac back 15 yrs
    #larrygottogo

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    To me, image is the reason why the PAC12 won’t rush back. The image that they did things the right way. The conference put in safety protocols that are better than pro sports. They won’t have any postponed or canceled games or pausing of football activities like other conferences. Put their players first. Not like LSU where Ed O says most of his team has already contracted the virus. It’s a bit of elitism that the PAC12 has always had. PAC12 should be about 3 weeks behind the BIG10. Nov 14th looks like the start of the year.

    Local restrictions are really just a formality. Once the testing protocols are in place, they’ll get the go ahead from the governors since pro events have been allowed to take place.

    For now, fans will just have to endure a lot of griping, hot takes and tons of click bait for the next couple weeks.

  4. If the P12 starts mid November do they push the playoffs back to like February? Or do they just not include the P12 in any potential playoff?

    My personal feeling is with the testing it is worth the risk. Let kids opt out and maintain eligibility if they want. But I just don’t see how playing these games puts the general population at any more risk of contracting Covid. If anything it may reduce transmission as the athletes may be less inclined to party if there are games to play. I mean you catch the Rona and you are kind of screwing the whole team.

  5. From a recruiting standpoint, I originally saw the P12’s cautious approach (and OSU’s) as a positive, because you could show you’re going to a program/conference that takes care of its players. The sentiment a few months ago was very much that more caution was better.

    It would be interesting to see what the split is amongst players now. It may be that sentiment has swung in the other direction and the guys are now missing being on the field in the fall. I could see it hurting P12 recruiting if there’s no season at all.

    Are they playing HS football in Oregon? They’ve been playing here in Ohio, even without colleges playing.

    • Definitely not playing high school football. Some high schools are not even starting school yet. My understanding is no fall sports and that they will cram all sports into the last 4 or so months of the year with shortened seasons.

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    I doubt that there will be a PAC-12 season. If there is a surge in the number of cases (which could happen next month), the governors in Oregon and California will overreact and shut everything down.

    There’s no point in a postseason if the PAC-12 is not on par with the other leagues. Look at what happened to Navy, which is usually a top 35 squad almost every year.

    • It would seem like the west coast is less likely to see a big surge in the fall. A surge would come from loosening of restrictions and a change in people’s behaviors. Offices workers aren’t going back in anytime soon, mass transportation usage is minimal, mask usage is pretty good, large gatherings aren’t happening often and more safety procedures everywhere. People’s current behavior will probably be the same through the winter so the threat of a second surge is reduced. States like the south will be more vulnerable to a second surge.

      The big threat would be super spreader events like the one Umatilla had. Corvallis might have one when students arrive in the next week. I saw the school is expecting half the students to still come to town.

  7. On this topic, Canzano tweets today:

    “Gov. Gavin Newsom just said that there is nothing keeping Pac-12 universities from playing football games in California.
    “Nothing in the state guidelines denies the ability for the Pac-12 to resume,” he said. “That’s been a misrepresentation of the facts.””

  8. Do you guys think the fire is more an issue at this point than the virus? How bad is it there?
    Been atrocious here in CO, too…hard to go outside. 2020 feels like I’m living the book of Revelations.

    • Most fire activity up North in Oregon has been slowed and is no longer threatening populated areas. There were multiple days last week where entire small cities(Estacada/Mollala) were at risk of being wiped out and several more were on notice.

      Problem now is the residual smoke has been persistently bad for a pretty long stretch, with the AQI rating sticking around the high end of ‘hazardous’ on the scale for most of the last week.
      The rain may even make it worse before it gets better, but at least it will help put down some of the existing hot areas

      • The smoke is really bad in Bend. Right now the aqi is 448. Last time I was on my bicycle was Friday morning. There was a little breather earlier in the day until the wind shifted out of the NW. Probably will repeat the same thing tomorrow. Sister’s aqi is 550. I would guess that’s probably the worst on the planet.

    • No, by then chances are strong that the smoke will have cleared. Highways in the Cascades will likely still see some closures though, but if you are staying in the Valley you’ll probably be in the clear.
      The city of Portland may be back into nightly riot mode though.

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          Shithead Proud Boys have one of their chest thumping pud pulling gatherings scheduled for the 26th in Portland. Buckle up and bring your shield.

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            Expressing their rights isn’t really what anyone’s emotions are stemming from. I recommend reading up on the Proud Boys and their motives before playing an unwitting participant for their side.

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            I think you got that one a little wrong…you’re talking about antifa and blm. Quit trying to shift the blame!

            Most of us in Central Oregon are waiting for you to STFU!

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            Who got what wrong? Proud Boys know that they can sucker people onto their side by attempting to make ‘antifa’ appear to be a greater threat then they actually are. On the backside of this, republican politicians will get support for restricting constitutional rights regarding free assembly.

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            What? What salon/huffpost bullshit article did you get that one from. Your not-so-bad Antifa literally murdered a dude in Portland. So peaceful.

          • you said proud boys. Tell everyone how many murders the proud boys have done in Portland.

            Oh and Far left vs far right murders total? Off the top of my head somewhere between 150-200 million lives lost to good old lefty communism. But who counting right?

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            US domestic threats, not global fascists over time. Like I said about being an unwitting participant for the Proud Boys side – sounds like you’re falling into it.

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    “ Political Climates of Geographies Determining Football Seasons?”

    Uhhh, pretty sure I called this already.

    http://angrybeavs.com/media/15623#comments

    If not denying COVID doesn’t exist, but when are y’all coronabros gonna wake the f up and realize this shit is all 100% politics???

    From college football not playing to masks to keeping shit closed.

    Guarantee if Biden wins in November, everything magically opens up before the end of the year. Guarantee.

    Even the B1G is having to walk it back due to the amount of lies from Kevin Warren.”

    When your governor extends the “state of emergency” until EXACTLY November 3, you know the fix is in. Anyone that can’t see this is as blind as Stevie Wonder.

    Democrat playbook on full display.

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      Tell the nearly 200K dead and their families that it’s all about politics. I’ll agree that it’s been potentially somewhat overblown in the media due to the ever-changing data and information, but 200K dead in this country and the nearly 900K deaths throughout the world? So this is a global conspiracy and a political maneuver by the entire world against the United States? Really? Even Trump knew better early on as interviews with Woodward revealed. This pandemic will eventually fade away but the 100s of thousands of deaths globally do not support the claim that COVID was a political conspiracy like Trump and his Kool Aid gulping minions are swallowing. Trump is nothing more than a wannabe dictator and the proof in that is in his own words and actions. Trump is Hitler in the making V.2.0.

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        “If you take the blue states out, we’re at a level that I don’t think anybody in the world would be at.” – Trump 9/16/2020

        Also he’s just wrong. It only takes the top 4 death counts for states that went for trump in 2016 to have more deaths than the UK (5th highest reported total in the world).

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        Bullshit numbers and you know it.

        You obviously did not read what I wrote.

        Take potshots at DJT all you want. It changes nothing about how many people feel about proggies And their “transparent” agenda.

        Cute that you compare Trump to Hitler. Let’s ask the Jews how they feel about that.

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          Speaking of Jews, ask them about Trump’s recent (and fourth time) anti-Semitic comment about American Jews having dual loyalty to Israel.

          • Yes, let’s ask them how an asinine comment from the president compares to millions of them murdered.

            Another amazing post. No wonder non-proggies think ya’ll have shit for brains.

          • It wasn’t a comparison. It made me think of another recent anti-Semitic comment is all. My shit brain is amused at watching you run cover and make excuses for Trump.

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          Bullshit numbers based on experts involved with infectious diseases.. Yes, I’ll certainly take the advice and words of people who have absolutely zero clue about Covid or any other disease for that matter over experts that have decades of experience in dealing with infection and mortality rates. How can people ignore the many people who have worked in trumps administration that says he doesn’t know what he’s doing, he’s only concerned about his reelection and even his own niece and sister who openly state Trump can’t be trusted. The common denominator to all of these comments is trump. So everyone else is wrong in their assessment and Trump is a great, honest and a highly moral person. Jim Jones had most of his followers drink the kool aid too and we know how that ended up. Trump is a very dangerous guy one that has openly fawned over Vladimir Putin, called Kim Jung Un a great guy who took out his uncle, thought Xi of China declaring himself president for life was something we might want to look at for America and the president of the Philippines a great leader. Let that sink in for a aoment or two.

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            I don’t even like the guy.

            But comparing Trump to Hitler??

            Fucking seriously?? Got anymore utterly fucking ridiculous comparisons based nowhere near reality?

            You proggies need to look in the mirror. Because you’ve learned nothing from almost four years ago.

            And yes, I’m calling bullshit on those statistics.

            The stats back up the fact that if you’re under 60 and relatively healthy? You have a less than 1% chance of dying from Covid-19.

            You hate Trump and that’s cool. I don’t give a fuck.

            You criticize Trump for his lack of a response, but Where were you proggies when Andrew Cuomo ordered sick elderly people back to nursing homes resulting in mass infection rates in said nursing homes and almost 6k deaths? Crickets.

            Bunch of people here were Boasting about Cuomo. Why wasn’t he running for president. His response was great! Laughable.

            And if Trump had decided To close all borders and entry/exit from the US, you proggies would’ve screamed racist from the mountaintops and you fucking know it.

            Criticize one but not the other. All because so and so has a D next to their name. Proggie Hypocrisy at its finest

            https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/gov-cuomos-controversial-order-requiring-nursing-homes-to-admit-covid-19-patients-was-reportedly-removed-from-new-yorks-health-website/ar-BB14GiNL

            Or is that more fake news?

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            Ah the old he’s obviously not good but he’s no Hitler arguement. Nice.

            Your covid assessment is completely selfish and shows your priorities. There is approximately 34.8 million Americans between 60 and 65. You state realitively healthy so let’s say 80% are healthy. You state less than 1% die so let’s say 0.8%. that’s 245,000 realitively healthy dead Americans you idiot.

            That’s just realitively healthy people in a limited demographic. I guess people with any health condition have no value to you until they are one of your friends or family.

            The fuck face you defend has admitted in his own words multiple times that he let this happen. Get you head out of the hole, do some math and watch the grinch cause your heart is too small.

          • I’m still waiting for someone to explain to me how Trump compares to Hitler. I hear this comparison all the time and would truly like to be enlightened?

  10. Off topic, Douglas County has had the level one fire evacuation notice lifted, but there arestill level 2&3 notices around glide and the eastern outskirts of Sutherlin . To date 109 houses have been lost to the archie creek fire. My heart breaks for these people. They have got a long road to recovery in front of them. One positive note is how Roseburg and all the other communities are coming together to get all these peoples immediate needs taken care of through donations and offering up places to keep their livestock until they can rebuild their ranches and farms. This is the America I love, nobody caring about politics, just taking care of each other …

  11. And the political football:

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/dan-wolken/2020/09/16/big-ten-got-played-president-trump-and-hes-eager-celebrate/5821009002/

    “Opinion: Big Ten got played by President Trump, and White House is eager to celebrate”
    “From the moment Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren and Trump spoke by phone on Sept. 1, any outcome that ended with the league reversing its early decision to postpone football was going to result in Trump declaring that he made it happen to boost his favorability in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota in the midst of a campaign where he is behind in the polls. “

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          Rogan is an entertainer. Hilarious that people think Trump is some sort of mental wizard and will stomp Biden in a debate. He has no grasp of policy and even he himself said his debate prep is what he does at rallies. So he’ll stand up there babbling bullshit for emotional reactions and try to zing Joe and the Marxist democrats who are going to destroy the country. Good luck with that one.

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        Except Joe Rogan doesn’t know how to moderate a debate. I recommend Joe quickly take a new position because magas are drawing him to their side and the more they perceive him as pro-trump, the greater their ‘cancel culture’ effect will be whenever he decides to criticize Trump in any significant way.

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        Biden would never do it, or be allowed to do it. The dems couldn’t control the questions like the last 3 presidential debates. And Rogen would do just fine questioning both of them. I love how people automatically think Rogen is some lefty/righty shill, as far as media goes he is the most centrist person out there today. He’s critical of both trump and biden.

        • I actually like Rogans interview style. He doesn’t push back much when people spout their BS but he really gets people to open up which can make for some interesting stuff. I get why Biden isn’t keen on debating Trump though, Trump isn’t intellectually honest at all, and doesn’t actually debate anything, he goes on rants about ripping 9 month old fetuses out of wombs and killing them, strange shit that is totally off topic.

          • I have only watched a few episodes so I dunno how far he is into conspiracy theories or how much he agrees with all his guests but the list of people that have been on his show is insane. Some fringe people for sure but a lot of real smart people too. He is super into meditation too which is kind of funny. I don’t think you can pin him down as left or right overall, kind of all over the map.

            https://www.jrepodcast.com/guests/

          • He’s not “in too” conspiracy theories. Yes he had people on his show who could be you could call that. But he really studies up on his guests, actually reads books and papers they publish. He’s more informed of his guest specialties then anyone I’ve heard. Go find his Bernie Sanders interview, I loath him but it was an interesting talk.

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    Whether the right call or not, to me if you are going to eliminate spectator attendance you’ve managed down a lot of the risk, so in Oregon, for example, if the Timbers are playing then why not the Ducks and the Beavers? Seems inconsistent. I also think transmission of COVID on the field of play in any of these sports is much less a risk then what some of the players have done off the field. In these situations of reduced attendance, it will be interesting if we hear about any outbreaks.

  13. Maybe this was already posted but CBS picks are available for week 2. I never received an email for making the picks but did get an email today asking me to join other pick em things. I see they show the lines this week.

    I see first place picked like 3 games correct last week. Even if you join now you can still easily win even with a lost week!

  14. More than a few good players from the PAC12 opting out. Don’t think they’ll risk coming back unless their team is making a run at the playoffs.

    Beavs haven’t had any opt outs. Maybe a benefit.

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    Regarding the election…it’s heating up in our hood. Aggressive signs popping up by the Trumpers. One guy takes the cake with a big flag that reads, “Come and get em” with an assault riffle on it and a Trump signs all over his yard. Libs’ most aggressive signs are “BLM” …lol. Our State and City are both considered purple, and I’m seeing way more Biden signs on lawns. I’m going to do a tally on my next walk and see how the figures compare to the polls.

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      One thing I keep reading about re: polls is people who won’t admit they’re going to vote for Trump, but end up doing so anyway. I’d imagine the same phenomenon would apply to yard signs (and it’s totally understandable in a world where expressing your opinion makes you either a racist or a communist).

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          Yeah but putting up a Biden sign makes you a Socialist and a target for having a brick thrown through your window by Trumpers. So it evens out, no?

          • I’d imagine the average hate for Trump is way higher than the average hate for Biden, so I don’t think it would even out.

            We’re talking about making yourself a target of A) violence and B) ridicule, disgust, etc.

            There’s probably an equal number of violent anti-Trump and anti-Biden folks, but there are likely more people who would non-violently shame you for a Trump sign than people who would non-violently shame you for a Biden sign.

    • Guess they like new wars in Libya and Yemen. Illegal drone strikes against 16 year old American citizens, too.

      What’s next on Biden’s list, South Sudan? Amazing how so many Americans actually like war…

  16. I’m concerned about absentee ballots. That is to say, the ballots of those who voted for Trump in 2016 but clearly have not been paying attention to his actions since that time and plan to vote for him again.

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      There are people who haven’t paid attention to him since 2016?
      I find that hard to believe. You mean they’re out of the Country or something? I cut cable in 2009 and don’t watch any TV, but I still run into him, even in actively trying to avoid him. So, just hard to believe.

      • I probably wasn’t direct enough. I was trying to make the point that if you voted for him in 16 and were still planning to do so in 20, then an absence of judgement is involved — and you have sort of an absence of judgement absentee ballot.

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          Not an absence of judgement. Just an absence of a worthy opponent. Accept it and take it. I/we paid attention and made a conscious decision. You made a very big assumption.

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            In my view, we both made judgements — and reached different conclusions. I concluded that Trump is such a despicable human being that anyone paying attention to his actions over the past four years wouldn’t vote for him again. You must feel that Trump is great and concluded that Joe Biden is not a worthy opponent for such a paragon, and that’s your right. As the old saying goes “That’s what makes horse races.” (I never quite figured out what the “Accept it and take it” was all about.)

    • Thing is though even if schools go online only 18 year old kids are still gonna want to get out of home and move to college towns and party. Kind of a dammed if you do dammed if you don’t situation.

  17. https://sports.yahoo.com/pac-12-presidents-flawed-covid-19-data-voting-delay-season-032754580.html

    When they made the decision to suspend the season, the P12 had inaccurate data that overstated COVID prevalence. This data was presented by the conference’s medical advisory board.

    “The worst mistake was reportedly a seven-day average positivity rate for tests in Los Angeles County. The presentation stated the rate at 19 percent, but the L.A. County Department of Public Health listed it as 5.49 percent.”

    The medical advisory board’s response was “the data was accurate at the time” and “it wouldn’t have changed our recommendation either way.” Basically, they inflated the numbers as a way of supporting what their recommendation was going to be anyway. Sounds like a serious case of CYA from people operating in an environment of high uncertainty.

  18. Anyone think Steven Jackson or Chad Johnson get in the NFL HOF? I don’t think so, not as first time ballots anyway. Jackson was productive for a forgettable Rams team (Luck O’ Da Beavs) but is 18th all time in RB yards and had 3 pro bowls. Johnson with 6 pro bowls 2X All Pro, 36th in receiving yards.

    • Corey Dillon almost seems like a bigger HoF snub than SJax, so I think it is an uphill battle for SJax. Fred Taylor isn’t in either. Frank Gore and AP probably get in? Gore kind of got his yards a lot by longevity. AP is clearly an all time great at running the football but he isn’t the best check down or pass blocker.

    • Ochocinco has the best shot. One of the best in his era. Steven just couldn’t stay healthy otherwise his numbers would have been pretty good.

      • SJ is still top 20 all-time in rushing yards, in line with Thurman Thomas, Fred Taylor, Franco Harris, and Marcus Allen on a yards/season basis. His profile was hurt by the fact that he played for bad teams. Johnson was consistently in the playoffs.

    • To me, you have to be one of the most dominant at your position over several years to be worthy of the HOF.

      Jackson’s competition during his peak: Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Ray Rice.

      Johnson’s competition: Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, Marvin Harrison, Donald Driver, Anquan Boldin

      Both of their career numbers compare favorably within their peer groups. Johnson’s look even better when you realize two of the guys on that list were catching passes from Peyton Manning.

      I may be biased, but I think they both deserve it.

    • What is “The Guardian”? I thought it was some British newspaper, but lately, I’m seeing a lot of links online in the US. Seems like they lean to the dire for clicks, but I may not be getting the full picture.

      • World is coming to an end, Trump pulled out of Paris Accords, political leaders must “DO SOMETHING about man-made global heating.”
        It’s all Trumps fault.

        Conclusion: “The stakes could scarcely be higher and with your help we can put this issue at the center of our 2020 election coverage. The election will be a referendum on the future of democracy, racial justice, the supreme court and so much more. But hovering over all of these is whether the US will play its role in helping take collective responsibility for the future of the planet.”

      • I don’t know about other Guardian websites but the one I occasionally read is guardian.co.uk. I nearly always find something worthwhile. It began as the Manchester Guardian in 1861. It is liberal-leaning but I think it’s fair. You can toggle between UK and US versions. There is no paywall – they seem to keep the site open with subscriptions and donations.

        • That’s about right.
          Kind of like Noam Chomsky. Even though he says he’s an anarchist or whatever, he leans Left, but he’s brilliant and always results in deep thought. I can’t think of newspapers or pundits on the Right who do this. If they did, I’d read them more. The best the Right has is Zero Hedge, which at best has a thought provoking piece about 1 out of 50 articles.

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      She tried her best to stick around til November. What a fighter.
      Trump is going to be loving this. NB, your wife is an attorney, right? Ask if he he can get someone in before Nov. I’m asking my bro who is also an attorney. If so, huge win for the Right, and the stench of Trump just gained 3000 miles and 30 years.

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        November isn’t the cut off its Inauguration. You can bet everything you have that McConnel will do everything in his power to push it through. The hypocrisy adds make themselves. Expect the election to move up another 10 notches on your radio.

      • I believe at this point, the only way DT’s nomination doesn’t get seated is if 4 or more GOP senators don’t approve.
        Romney and Collins would be the most likely. After that, I dont know that there are 2 more who would cross party lines to delay the vote until after the election. It’s possible though. Will be a very tense period with a ton of pressure on the senate.

        • President Trump’s nominee will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says in a statement.

          I would say the point where it breaks down is after the election. Currently Collins, Gardner, Tillis and McSally are in very poor positions. Graham is also TIED in the latest poll which is insane. Romney wants to be the face of the post trump GoP. None of those people will benefit from supporting trump with this little time left in the election, they are losing because of supporting. Once the election is over and the results are set how they react is going to be interesting. If the GOP loses control of Senate and the white house do they make it their legacy to get one more justice in or stop it? If the GOP keeps control of the white house and senate they will just take their time to make due process look legit.

          Going to be nuts.

          Edit: Iowa Senator Joni Ernst is also on the bubble in polling.

          Edit 2: Alabama Senator Doug Jones will also be a real wildcard. He’s down 8 points against Tommy Tuberville. Making a show for a SCOTUS hearing would only help him in Alabama.

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          McConnell’s statement about her death finished basically saying they’re going to push the nominee through. Her body’s not even cold. That guy is such a piece of shit.

          • Smells like hypocrisy. Shocking that election years don’t matter for 2 years with SCOTUS hearings anymore. Truly floored that he isn’t a stand up honest guy.

          • Mitch McConnell in 2016: “The American people should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new president.”

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            Angry, Thanks for posting that on Mitch. Was about to try and look up his statement from 2016. My die-hard Republican friends (not Trump die-hards BTW), are shocked he would try to pass this nomination through before the election.

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            Different situation then 2016 as Obama was a lame duck and at the end of his term + plus he didn’t hold the senate. Trump can still be president after the election.

          • Did the democrats nominate anybody in 2016 before the election….did they even try? Not sure, really asking.
            Hopefully if they do go forward with the nomination, it isn’t some extreme wack-job either way — don’t want to be stuck with shit for 30 years! Given how liberal Ginsburg was, she was still relatively fair.

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            Merrick Garland was nominated in March 2016. McConnel denied the senate a vote on Garland for 9 months until Trump was elected, and the seat was later awarded to Kavanaugh.

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            Obama submitted a pick that had zero chance of getting nominated because the Republicans held the senate. That pick would have been seated after Obama left office. Sadly the dems think this situation is somehow the same, it is not.

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            nuke, they could but what reason is there to wait. Republicans hold the power to seat a nomination. Some how i doubt if the shoe was on the other foot the dems would wait (this is a joke, there is absolutely zero chance the dems would wait). Elections have consequences.

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            I wouldn’t expect them to. He should have just said, “we have the power to stop it so we will because we care more about power than precedent, duty or a fully staffed scotus”. Instead he just fed good sounding bullshit that he is now going back on. As predictable and laughable as Graham demanding his opponents tax returns be made public.

          • My guess is if Biden wins there is a good chance the Supreme Court will have 11 justices come this time next year. I just hope they either elect and vote on a candidate before the election or after inauguration. If they wait til after the election but before the inauguration that is some undemocratic chicken shit.

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            Oh boy court packing by the dems, like that’s a new idea. The temper tantrum threat of adding justices because the dems didn’t get there way. Typical. And they like to talk precedent when 9 justices have been in place for 150+ years. Lol.

          • Court packing is definitely not a new idea, but it only takes a majority in Congress to do it. Personally I am not big on it but I think confirmation should take a 60-40 or 2/3rds majority. Force them to compromise on someone with a strong judicial background that has avoided the political fray.

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            It was Trump’s admin that helped changed the vote to 51/100 for Senate nomination, correct….? Seems like a lot of manipulation on both sides to me. Typical, we are in a TWO WRONGS MAKE A RIGHT type mentality of our leadership.

          • “It was the democrats who made the new filibuster rule and GoP who have weaponized it.”

            Weaponized it, maybe. But Puleeze…………..seems akin to a robber dropping his gun only to have the victim pick it up and use it against him.
            Of course the robber, and his minions, then complain about an unfair fight!!

          • It’s not just unfair, it has made the senate basically useless. Look up how many bills are waiting to be considered vs how many see the floor. The senate is non functional due to that procedural rule and only partisan things are even presented or debated at all.

            All they really do is approve judges.

  19. It’s politics. Hypocrisy is more widespread than you can imagine at every level.

    Wanna see the country really break? That will happen if the election goes to the Supreme Court and there’s a 4-4 split on who becomes the next president.

    His nominee will likely be Amy Coney Barrett. She’ll be painted as a religious zealot because she went to Notre Dame.

  20. 6
    1

    I was looking at OLive for fire news and saw an article on Addison Gumbs. He is healthy, ready to play, proclaims himself faster. Also, with medical issue and coronavirus “extensions,” he could apparently could play at OSU for four more years. “I’d be up there with Grandpa Jake” he joked. “Using our AARP cards in line at the football dining table. Gotta get that fiber.”

    https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2020/09/oregon-state-linebacker-addison-gumbs-on-recovering-from-a-second-acl-surgery-in-two-years-i-got-faster-actually.html

    Gumbs ,Hamilcar Rashed Jr., John McCartan, Matthew Tago, Riley Sharp…going to be a wrecking crew.

      • @ohio – I really didn’t mean it as a GoP are the only ones who do it thing. The democrats have been bait and switchjng minorities and socialist agendas for 40 years. Mostly I’m just sick of the whole dance that just makes things worse. Bring back that slave owner polk, he delivered on everything he promised in 4 years then dropped the mic.

    • Yeah they should have just said we control the senate and are waiting a year instead of all the mental gymnastics. I thought it was unconstitutional not to vote on Garland. They should have had a vote and denied the confirmation. The constitution says the senate shall advise and consent.

      • 1
        1

        I think I already am on here? I don’t really subscribe to any single source. Mother Jones is the Breietbart of the left but they can still do the leg work on pulling all those quotes and clips together haha.

  21. 1
    1

    Cristobal continuing to recruit well, getting more O-line talent and a highly ranked safety. Building a rep as a school with line talent I would think, with their history of DTs going high in the draft and recent OL rated highly Sewell(sp?) projected as a top 10 pick. That and something funny is likely going on.

  22. I like John Canzano’s articles about Pac-12 ADs, etc., fumbling around for a football season. He’s still going after Larry Scott, as well. The articles probably won’t soon change anything and maybe never but I hope a few powers-that-are take note. The discussion about how long to get the team ready to play is enlightening. https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/john_canzano/2020/09/canzano-six-games-eight-pac-12-conference-football-plan-laced-with-coach-frustration.html

    • Don’t see them getting a decision made in time for that Oct 31st start time, but maybe later?

      Oregon appears to he one of the more vocal programs advocating for pushing back the start time. Rob Mosley here pretends to be in the dark, but we all know he is a mouthpiece for the athletic department. Says the smoke in Oregon has prevented athletes from working out the last 2 weeks, so we’re at a disadvantage compared to some other teams. Also later he says even though the smoke is gone, the indoor facilities are now worse than the outdoor because the smoke is trapped inside(thought these were state of the art facilities?)

      It’s a bit of a weak argument, considering these athletes have been continually working out all Summer. The wildfires did pause that activity for about 10 days, but you’re not going to lose all of your progress over that short of a break. I’m guessing a big part of it is oregon buying time to re-tool to accomodate for losing Sewell, Graham & Lennoir to NFL draft opt outs.

      https://twitter.com/DuckFootball/status/1307375281477304320?s=19

  23. MLB gurus:
    Is Trevor Larnach in the big leagues yet? Where did he go in the draft?

    Saw Madrigal was leading off last night and went 2 for 4. Good for him

    Any update for Adley in Baltimore gettig called up?

    Conforto has settled into the meat of the Mets lineup which is nice to see finally.

    • Larnach is with the taxi squad for the Twins. Won’t get called up this year. He was a first round pick!

      Madrigal should stick in the show for a while. If he can up his walk count, he’ll become very valuable. His BA and OBP is nearly the same and virtually has no power.

      Adley won’t get called up either. He’s with the taxi squad. He probably would have gotten a call up in a normal year but he’ll have to wait until 2022 to become a regular.

      Conforto keeps getting richer. Short season benefitted him a lot.

      Don’t forget about the others,
      Rasmussen hasn’t given up a run in his last 5 outings. If he gets his walk rate down, he’ll have shot at starting next year. Otherwise he’ll have bullpen job for a while.
      Fry has settled in after a rough couple of outings early in the season.
      Boyd is having a rough year. Likely gets one more shot next year and that’s it.
      Osich can make some good money with a strong finish to the year.

  24. I just watched the 2nd to the last stage of the Tour De France. Thousands of Fan’s lined up along the 23 mile course, stacked 5 deep on both sides. Most Fans; if not all, had on masks but many were only partly covering their nose and mouth.

      • There has been a resurgence in Europe. Not sure if its a second wave or similar to the US recent climb. Either way Europe was farther along then us 5 months ago and it looks like they will be playing catch up now.

          • To the us. They didn’t get a second peak like we have gotten. They’re just starting that second peak as we are in the middle/ back side of the second peak of infections. And im talking Europe as a whole not just france.

        • 1
          1

          France and Spain at least, and other European countries to a lesser extent, most definitely got a second wave that was as bad or worse than the first wave. The U.S. has been heading in the right direction for a couple of months now, France and others not so much.
          There is most definitely a second peak forming in Europe right now. We aren’t the only ones “bungling” this.

  25. 16
    5

    Just don’t conflate infections/cases with deaths/death-rates. Media seems to have a difficult time differentiating between the two. Cases need to go higher for herd immunity. As cases up and deaths per case will drop over time, this is what viruses do. The stronger, more deadly strain will naturally eliminate itself and the most benign form becomes the common strain that survives.
    The initial panic was over 2 million predicted deaths, now we are about 200k deaths, but the amount of cases is now being reported breathlessly as if it is the running daily death rate, since a case=death in the media world. Death sells ads I guess.

    45% of all deaths in US are in nursing homes, among the elderly,
    50% of those are in a handful of states that forced positive patients back into the facility (negligence or intentionally)
    6% of all deaths were a result of covid only sickness with no underlying issues.
    Death rate nationally is a fraction of a percentage point. Hospitals were getting $39k per Covid death and thus skewed the numbers and death certificates, no one will ever know accurate numbers. I’m skeptical about the public numbers due to this alone.

    How many deaths occur normally in any given year? How are those statistically matching up to this year in various categories like influenza, pneumonia, , heart attack, car accidents, diabetes, stroke, etc? I’m guessing every category is down and many have been attributed to covid officially.

    • Covington and Trump over hyped, egotistical a holes. Trumps congrats is about as useful as is his “spiritual advisor” Paula White.

  26. Not sure if this would be up your alley, Angry?
    Investigative journalism story about world wide financial instituations and how they engage in money laundering and criminal activity by being complicit and allowing known suspicious activity to exist with no follow up, because they get a cut too.
    Seems like it has legs to be an important story, although I don’t know that people have the bandwidth to absorb this much content in the current news climate.
    Also, I think this is a story that will evolve over weeks/months rather than just this standalone piece.
    There’a supposed to be a podcast too, to complimemt the story, but I haven’t looked it up yet.

    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/jasonleopold/fincen-files-financial-scandal-criminal-networks

  27. Did I hear on Redzone the NFL has no positive covid players yet? Pretty amazing if I heard that right, and a good sign players are taking this seriously so they can stay on the field.

    • That’s since the season started. There were many positives during training camp. Too much money at stake for the players and the league. They put in a ton of restrictions.

      Did you see the florida st coach tested positive?

    • 2
      2

      Herbert had a really nice throw for a touchdown. Glad to see him having success.

      Took a huge hit from a Chiefs linebacker and the LB received a shoulder injury

      • 1
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        He was clearly a way better prospect than Luton.
        Looks like he might beat the Chiefs in his first start if they can hold the final 2 minutes.

          • 4
            2

            Ha I wouldn’t say that. I do think herbert is overrated tho. He pretty much lost the game with that pick and then the play he messed up in the goal line.

          • If you’re referring to me, I’ve been beating the “both are career backups” drum.

            Bear in mind, Derek Anderson was a Pro Bowler early in his career before he turned into a career backup. Herbert always had flashes in college. Consistency was the big question mark for him and remains so until he can string together 5-6 good games.

            Luton has the skills every team wants in a QB2 (minus NFL experience). He’s efficient on the easy throws, able to avoid mistakes, and he’s a team player without much of an ego. And, for the time being, he’s still dangling the developmental promise out there because he’s continued his brisk development pace every year. Oh, and he’s cheap.

          • 7
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            Is it just me? I could of swore angry was the one that said Luton would never make the NFL and would be playing in the CFL. Now he earns a legitimate backup spot and according to Jay Gruden he was the biggest surprise in camp. Yet here you are again changing the argument and now it’s “Well, he’s not better than Herbert”… Give him and us some credit, he’s a good QB. I know it hurts lol… you can’t get them all right Angry

          • I don’t know what I said about him and the CFL. Don’t remember any comment like that.
            But I do remember ranking him a 3-star coming in, then wishing Gebbia won the job over him because I think Gebbia a better *college* QB, and then saying Hodgins made Luton look good because Luton threw the ball in a 5yard radius and Hodgins went ang got it, and then saying I’d admit I was wrong Ala Hekker if he made it to the NFL and became good. That’s what I remember happening. Super skeptical he’ll ever become anything in the NFL, but the Hekker lesson proves anything is possible.

            I also remember saying Herbert was a much better QB when people were down on him just because he was a Duck.

          • I can’t recall your exact words… But in summary you said he wouldn’t amount to anything… You said he doesn’t have the heart or football IQ… I think we can all agree that was false… I guess my question to you, is do you think Gebbia will be a backup QB on an NFL team his first year? Not baiting, just curious of your take on him compared to Luton as a pro… I know your take on him as a college QB…

            I thought Herbert made a lot of poor decisions and throws last year which made him not look as good in my eyes. After watching him play Sunday, I still see those tendencies. However it is also apparent that UO personnel and schemes weren’t that great. He’s very good at reading the defense and does it fast. Luton on the other felt slow with his reads. I agree with you totally that they aren’t really on the same level at all. And it’s foolish for people to think that.

    • I thought he looked decent, definitely made some rookie mistakes which you would expect from any QB besides maybe Mahomes or Russ. I thought the LAC D played pretty lights out and that something is a hair off with Mahomes throws, his spiral is not as tight as it was last year, not sure if he reworked his throwing motion or what.

    • 15
      7

      Remember when Jack said we were lucky to have a businessman as commish? Remember when people said we were lucky to have a businessman as President?

      • 10

        Being a “businessman” doesn’t make you good or bad. I don’t think I’d want a guy without any business experience running an organization like the PAC12 where its competitiveness is related to its ability to commercialize and generate exposure. But you also couldn’t necessarily take a successful plumbing components distributor and drop him into the commissioner’s seat expecting big things.

        Scott was strictly a lifetime tennis guy before coming to the P12. Global pro tennis is a completely different animal from college football. He’s also an Ivy League New Yorker with no understanding of his target market whatsoever. He was a bad fit from the beginning. All the other major conferences have guys with either direct college experience (former AD’s and commissioners of other conferences) or football experience (Big 10’s was a longtime NFL exec).

        • ‘successful plumbing components distributor’ – why not? Pac-12 components: universities and their directors, sports at each university, number of events, budgets, prices, seasons of use – distribute.

          • Larry Scott may transition into a plumbing distributor after this since he’s already flushed the entire sports world of the Pac12 down the drain, as well as incorporating garbage explanations for the last 6-8 years. He is highly qualified to go sell massive amounts of toilets, toilet seats, sewer drainage and garbage disposals.

          • Do what I did the last time OSU came calling to me for a donation. Refrain. And explain why.

            Why give money to a business that is circling the bottom of the bowl and won’t flush no matter how many times you try?

    • Not only were the bonus’s paid, BUT they were paid early!!
      And, Scott still hasn’t begun to repay his no interest $1.9 million loan!
      You can’t make this stuff up!
      Now, he’ll probably sell the home he bought with that loan at a profit when he is FINALLY kicked down the road.

    • Pac-12 = rudderless vessel

      B1G cancels? Pac follows suit. B1G says we’re playing? Pac follows suit (they will). Basically telling the world they’re a bunch of fucking sheep who can’t make any decisions on their own.

      Larry Scott has been giving tip, shaft and balls to the 12 athletic departments for years now. No deal with DirecTV? Don’t need it. Smallest TV rights payout of any P5 conference? Bah. As long as Leisure suit Larry gets his. Fuck everyone else. And I have yet to hear any president or AD speak up on the matter. Bunch of fucking west coast pussies who apparently enjoy sticking their head in the fence.

  28. Week 3 gamea/picks are now available. SEC is on the schedule now, so we will have more games to choose from going forward. Time to make up some ground.

    • And since that time, the Notre Dame/WakeForest game has already been postponed due to Covid at ND, where 7 out of 94 tested athletes this week were positive.

      • Kind of good news for the pac12. If more games are postponed, it’ll make the pac12 shorter schedule more comparable for playoff purposes. Or the cfp extends the season and the pac12 gets to play more games.

        Assumes pac12 doesn’t cancel games either.

  29. Wow I’m doing terrible in the pick ’em league. Holy crap.
    I don’t know anything about these teams, tbh, and it’s showing. I’m making picks based on past reputations. Does anyone here actually follow things closely enough to know which teams are good?

  30. Dashel says 3-5 record for beavs would be a good year. Given attrition at some other schools, our returning talent and coaching continuity, I’d be unhappy with 5-3. Depending on how the schedule lays out, maybe better

      • Here’s my P12N odds:
        Cal 5-2
        Beavs 3-1
        UW 6-1
        UO 8-1
        WSU 20-1
        Stanford doesn’t play this year.

        Odds they play all scheduled games:
        30-1

        Odds they recancel season:
        9-2

        Coach of the year: JS
        Offensive POY: Jefferson
        Defensive POY: Rashed
        Odds beavs sweep post season awards: 1,000,000-1

        Odds Larry Scott finishes 2020: 2-1

    • Ya that surprised me that he thought the Beavers would be that bad.. maybe I’m seeing something different, but the team made big strides on both sides of the ball last season.

      • We’re in pretty good shape at the skill positions. I’m mostly concerned with our lines on both sides. OL has to replace a bunch of veteran starter experience and we dont have a DT with any size.
        Our biggest D-Line player with any experience is JC transfer Tavis Shippen, at 6’4″ 288 lbs.

    • 6 teams? Assuming that would mean the teams least affected by practice delays from smoke, UA/ASU/Utah/Colorado/WSU/UW?
      But if 5 more teams are joining the next week, then it would seem the schedule would include more than 6 total games.

    • Wasn’t UCLA the one that was talking about forming a players union because they felt COVID wasn’t being taken seriously enough? I would imagine that has something to do with their “lack of readiness.” Guys just don’t want to play.

  31. Herbert gets another start. Funny how the Oregonian points out Herbert played well despite the short notice… welol the flip side is the opposing D didn’t have notice either. Carolina is not a real intimidating D but I reckon they will dial up the pressure to test the rookies decision making. That said I think Herbert showed enough to earn the start even if Tyrod was healthy. You know what Tyrod gives you and there is not a ton of additional upside to be had, Herbert probably has more downside but he also has more upside, I think you take the potential upside and see what it gives you.

  32. Arizona writer, Greg Hansen, has a piece up on the hiring of Larry Scott (among other things).
    He says a better media deal “…could’ve been negotiated by Humpty Dumpty.”

    He recaps the candidates for the job back in 2009 this way:
    “The Pac-12’s Final Four of 2009 was a baseball guy, a tennis guy, a soft-drink executive and a man from the NCAA.
    Talk about your oh-fers.”

    https://tucson.com/sports/greghansen/greg-hansen-bonus-payouts-show-pac-12-commissioner-larry-scott-is-wrong-man-for-the/article_d073e691-9009-5488-8c5d-f1fa0845aaa3.html

  33. It was discussed earlier how Gavin Newsom is pushing people out of CA. The latest attempt is he wants CA to require all new cars sold in the state of CA to be non-gasoline/non-diesel starting in 2035.

    So for all of those affected by rolling blackouts, good luck getting around the next day.
    Does electric really solve the energy consumption problem or just shift the burdon to other energy sources? Seems like tightening emission standards on vehicles, including big rigs, would make a bigger impact while also being more practical long term.

    https://www.courthousenews.com/newsom-bans-sale-of-gas-diesel-vehicles-in-california-by-2035/amp/

    • 1
      2

      We need to harness solar or we’re doomed.
      Electric utility companies realize this and are doing it…slowly. Amazing how slowly, actually. If I remember correctly, solar is cheaper as of this year (on a kwh basis) than traditional fossil fuels.

      Tesla is a story for 10 years from now. Amazed how many people pulled that narrative forward just because of Elon’s charisma and Cathie Wood pumping it.

      • I see more and more Tesla cars on the road, however I’ve read Tesla’s car have more problems than other car makers, don’t know if that is true. I like the idea of a car that has autopilot

        • From what I’ve read, the newer and cheaper models are the worst on quality because Tesla cut so many corners to hit their production targets. The older and higher end models haven’t suffered the same issues.

      • I’m no expert, but I think they have concerns about its inconsistent nature and the ability to switch between power sources when necessary. Storage capacity during those times is an issue, which Tesla and others are trying to improve with better battery technology.

      • You should research NuScale power. Small scale nuclear reactors. I don’t think solar is the answer. At least currently.

        But why not some combination of solar, wind and Ocean/water current?

        Not claiming to be an expert here. Or an internet attorney. Or a glorified babysitter.

        • NuScale might have some success, but there are significant manufacturing issues when it comes to the steam generators. These steam generators have about 2000 steel tubes tightly interwoven and have to be custom made. Probably the biggest issue facing the design is whether or not a sufficient number of tubes can withstand vibrations, which is a downside of using any pressurized water reactors. Some other things are pointed out about the design (specifically how boron circulates in a loss of offsite power scenario) but I fail to see how it would lead to a core melt.

          A design that is more likely to succeed is the BWRX-300, which is General Electric’s 10th iteration of the boiling water reactor. Dope design that minimizes the amount of concrete that needs to be poured. Expected construction time is 26 months as opposed to several years for the NuScale design.

      • 1
        1

        But why not some combination of solar, wind and Ocean/water current?

        Yes, all of them. All renewables.
        Wind is actually cheaper than solar at .04kwh vs .10kwh. Fossil fuels .05kwh to .17kwh.

        Nuclear is fine for now to bridge the gap, but obvious safety issues and retiring plants, etc.

        • Fine for now? Nuclear is the permanent solution, but we won’t see nuclear take at least 20% of worldwide electricity production for another 20 years.

          To paraphrase a French engineer who once pointed out to a bunch of political energy analysts, “…. there has never been a time in human history where there has been a shift to less energy dense resources without significant loss of life…” Per unit of energy produced, a solar panel requires 15x more (wind is 10x more) materials by weight than a nuclear power plant does. That is significant for a country that does not have competitive manufacturing capabilities or raw natural resources. A molten chloride salt fast reactor, which is being developed by Bill Gates’ funded TerraPower along with Southern Corp, can close the American fuel cycle and make the country energy independent for >30,000 years.

          To further elaborate, there is so much waste heat generated by a nuclear power plant that it can be used to help process a whole slew of chemical processes in sectors ranging from the petrochemical industry to metallurgy to sewage treatment to processing wood products. With renewables you have to convert electricity to heat with a separate coolant loop. But the real value, IMO, is that the enormous amount of waste heat can be used for providing heat loads for greenhouses, which localizes food supply for the region, and can provide heating for houses in the winter. This could make people want to live in rural America again.

          The main problem with nuclear in the US is that we have no domestic supply chain. Defective parts cause delays, and with 12% interest a year, the costs spike quick. There is no American “nuclear industry”; it has died, and we will likely never get it back again. Westinghouse, which used to be the equivalent of Amazon, could manufacture every single part of a PWR back in the 70’s and 80’s. The same could be said with Framatome (Areva), General Electric, and Babcock and Wilcox. Those days are gone likely forever since our politicians have sold out the American manufacturing sector. The US produces good engineers, but not enough to revive a nuclear industry from a manufacturing standpoint. That is why, if anyone needs to build very large reactors on budget and on time, they need to call the Koreans.

          For now, stick with natural gas. Safe, (relatively) clean, scalable, and efficient. A bit noisy, though.

    • “Does electric really solve the energy consumption problem or just shift the burdon to other energy sources?”

      Exactly. Unintended consequences…..

      • One of my kids did a report on this for middle school 7 or 8 years ago. Someplace like Colorado gets most of it’s electricity from coal (or did at that time) so an electric car there is burning coal. Creating the equivalent footprint of a car burning gas and getting 36 mpg.

        Coal is dying, and oil/gas companies are spending their profits developing more ways to wring the sponge holding fossil fuels, what a waste.

        • There’s been exponential decline in renewable rates per kwh in the past 8 years. The biggest declines in the history of the sector. Totally different than 8 years ago. CO gets ~270 days of sun per year, so big shift to solar, though legacy coal is everywhere of course. A lot of wind on the eastern half of the State and nearby States (e.g. Dakotas). It will take 20 years or so to phase out.

  34. 2
    1

    So evidentially gov brown went up the canyon to check out the fires. There was suppose to be a photo opp with a fire fighter. No one from the area wanted to be in a photo with her so someone in her entourage put on firefighting gear, rolled around in some charred brush and ash, then stood in the photo with her.

    • 2
      4

      Excuse my ignorance but I don’t understand why people hate Brown so much. I mean I get people have conservative or even Trumpian views but this is Oregon you are stuck with a Democrat running the state for the foreseeable future. So my question is why is Brown worse than a standard generic Democrat?

      • I’m guessing anything I or others would say you would disagree with based on your comments/questions. I’m not saying that to be rude in any way. I’m simply saying that if you truly believe that then I don’t think anything someone says would change your mind. In the area that I live I don’t know of anyone that really likes the things she has done or who she protects/makes a priority so I’m on the complete other side of your mindset. Maybe a few coworkers but that’s about it.

        Yes, Portland will vote in a democrat forever.

        Not trying to start a bickering discussion but I thought it was comical that is how Brown and Co got a photo of her with a “firefighter”.

          • I’m guessing you live out of state? Timber Unity, didn’t ever waive the wait week for unemployment like most other states did during Covid, changing of PERS, way COVID was handled in general, isn’t pro-life: Thanks for getting me fired up! jk

            “After signing HB 3391 into law in August (a bill that forces insurance companies to cover abortions with no co-pays or deductibles), national media hailed Kate Brown as pushing the most progressive abortion legislation in the nation. But pro-lifers on the front lines in Oregon know that Governor Brown has been an abortion extremist her entire career in politics, supporting abortions even up until the moment of birth.”

          • I mean I understand why someone with your beliefs doesn’t like her. I just don’t get the recall effort and the above baseline level of hate for her over a standard replacement level Democrat. I live in state, work with both rural and more college town type folks, I understand the concerns, people want to continue to squeeze a few bucks out of sketchy 30 year old dump trucks and logging equipment. I was not in love with the climate change legislation, my personal opinion is a nationwide tax and dividend is the fairest and most efficient way of tackling this issue.

            I guess I would make it analogous to someone like Romney or Kasich… guys who I agree with some but are of a mostly different ideology but I respect because they articulate their positions and are respectful people. Trump who I agree with some but are of a mostly different ideology I think is human trash and would vote to recall if that were an option at the national level. I guess I put Brown more in the Romney/Kasich camp and you clearly put Brown in the Trump camp of my analogy which a lot of other people do too and I really struggle with the why.

      • I don’t find her an effective governor. The state unemployment system is a debacle and she remained silent for weeks without offering a solution. 49,000 still have not received their benefits. She was wishy-washy with COVID protocols and now I think she’s overly restrictive based on Oregon’s numbers. I’m a libertarian, so I’m not going to agree with her anyway, but she was a secretary of state who fell into the job because Kitzhaber got cocky. She has no personality and is a dreadful public speaker with all of her ums. Good riddance when her term is up.

        • 3
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          Thank you for thinking for yourself… Fellow Libertarian here… Let’s not even mention the Oracle debacle for the Obama Care site… I have not been impressed at all with Kate Brown… I just can’t see how people blindly defend her when there’s ample evidence of other governors doing a much better job… The fact that she let Washington lead our COVID decisions should tell you all you need to know… She is such a politician that instead of doing what was good for the people of Oregon she played political games… I can’t stand it and I see it all the time from both sides… Que up the arguments lol

          • 1
            1

            Yep he was I was wrong on that… Regardless it goes to show we haven’t had a good run as far as governors go … Incompetent folks playing to the voter base… I’d be curious to hear what Angry thinks about Polis, he seems pretty legit.

          • Yeah, states that are competitive politically have it good. Forces better candidates with crossover appeal and gets you the government cheddar from the feds and Presidents that campaign on issues that matter to your state. Most of the biggest welfare states are competitive.

        • Brown never would have been elected Governor. She isn’t personable enough to win the primary. I’m somewhat surprised that no one challenged her in a primary after she fell into the office.
          A mildly articulate zucchini could get elected to statewide office in Oregon if they have a D by their name. Look at our junior US Senator for example.

      • 4
        4

        Vote by mail became a permanent fixture in Oregon in 1987. The last time Oregon had a non D governor? 1987.

        Coincidence????

        I know this doesn’t answer your question. Please think for yourself.

        Not affiliated with ANY party here.

          • Portland became a thing, too. I remember tones of liberal, hipster friends looking at PDX early 90s. Some moved there. And that’s just my small circle. Extrapolate it to every small town USA having their hipsters move there, and all the Californians who couldn’t afford housing who moved there. So yes, very likely coincidence and the reason correlation isn’t causation.

          • I’m not saying it doesn’t happen, but it’s likely more a marginal benefit than a massive game-changer.

            Same with gerrymandering, which is the GOP’s “fix” of choice.

    • I really don’t want to start a debate about brown. There will be people that read this blog that support her and those that don’t.

      What’s everyone Thinking will Happen tomorrow when the pac12 has their meeting?

      • I havent been tuned in much lately, but did happen to catch a short radio interview on my lunch break on sports radio.
        Whoever was on the air at the time seemed to think we will be getting an announcement tomorrow that football will be played starting Oct 31st or possibly the 7th. And it will include Stanford who was rumored to be out. But that was about all I caught and it was just opinion.

        • I hope Stanford is in but seems they are not committed and have less incentive or dependence on playing. Stanford athletics will be fine with or without football in 2020. That said, for the good of the conference they should play

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        I’m not really a huge fan, I probably don’t follow state politics as closely as I should. I am just trying to figure out why so much hatred and vitriol is directed her way… I guess that is just 2020. mckalk has some good points but still doesn’t fully answer the question. I remember the Umpqua shooting, she came out using it for gun control. Met the families of the victims and totally dropped using the event as a gun control push (I assume none of them wanted their relatives to be used for this issue). But then people railed on her anyway like she was capitalizing on the event for pushing an agenda. It was like the facts of the situation didn’t even line up with reality… but again I think you just have to chalk it up to the world we live in, don’t think anyone can answer these questions.

      • It doesn’t make sense for OSU , or UO, or Linfield, or whomever, to contact trace incoming students. It should be the county of residence. Or is OSU expected to contact trace out of state students, international students etc?

        • My understanding is the county of residence does the contact tracing. Most students never update their residence so their parents home county technically should be doing the contact tracing.

  35. I absolutely can not stand Kate Brown. Just about everything she has done is subpar. I own rentals and all of the so called tenant friendly legislation has caused me to sell them to homeowners. Thus, there are 17 homes that are no longer rentals. Likewise with the anti business laws. She simply has no clue that if you legislated adverse laws to those who provide jobs and income, they will leave and you are stuck with a smaller tax base to pay for all of the expensive programs. The groups she tends to favor, contribute very little to the progress of our state.

    • Yeah a lot of tenant protections end up just causing more expenses for landlords and lead to rent increases. Accomplishing the opposite of the goal. IMO regulation is a balancing act for sure. I mean in a perfect world no regulation would be needed because people would do the right thing… definitely not gonna happen though.

  36. @Angry What are your thoughts on governor Polis? I think you are in Colorado now, right? Anyway, I thought it was very interesting that he required furloughed days for state employees including himself. Seems like he actually serves his people. Kinda weird for a Democrat but its something I could get behind.

    • I think he’s excellent so far. He’s gay and Jewish, so the guy has had a lot of prejudice to overcome, and he did so in the real world (very successful businessman and wealthiest governor, I believe). I think those biases against him help him relate to real people having real world problems more so than most politicians. Very reasonable, level-headed in how he handled the virus in balancing health with business, and I think CO has been one of the least effected States in terms of unemployment. Think we have a pretty low virus number, too, at least last I looked.

      • Thanks Angry… You look online and the Republicans blast him, no surprise there… It’s good to hear an honest take because from what I’ve seen he’s been great… And like you said with his background, it sounds like nothing was handed to him and he had to work his way up… These are the types I like regardless of political affiliation

        • I agree, people who spend there entire lives in politics tend to be detached from the real world. Term limits need to be a thing. 2 and out no matter the level.

        • What do they blast him for – handling things correctly in a balanced way?
          Might be threatened because he’s a rising star based on how he handled things.

          • @Angry… The usual… They blast him for his Coronavirus response… Apparently, he signed 100 executive order’s, so they don’t like his power… The more I read it sounds like he is Libertarian Democrat, so no wonder I like him lol…

            @jockitch…. Glad to hear others talking about it… A star voting system makes a lot of sense… We almost passed it for Lane County in 2018… Hoping to see more trying

          • I don’t mind business people in power if they’re grounded and had a tough upbringing. Reason being that allows them to relate to all people in all classes. My big issue with Trump (at least as a “businessman”, that argument) is that he had everything handed to him. His lack of empathy is very clear to me. Not good when governing people of all upbringings and opportunity.

          • You nailed it on the head Angry, the difference is empathy… Most of the rich people have been rich so long that they have no empathy for the folks struggling… I recently learned that empathy is not something ingrained in most people… It’s bizarre to me because I have always had it… To me that is the biggest hurdle to changing anything in this country… You should check out Tyler Childers, he wrote an amazing song about this subject… He’s from Kentucky and is a rising Americana artist, if you are into that music, he’s amazing, my favorite.

            Tyler Childers – Long Violent History: https://youtu.be/2_I3Rp1CQak

            Here is him discussing the lyrics. Other than him reading off a teleprompter is a very heartfelt message. I don’t agree with him that all these killings were not justified but I agree with point he is getting at which is empathy: https://youtu.be/QQ3_AJ5Ysx0

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            Enjoyed the tune. I like bluegrass in moderation.

            Yeah empathy is a problem on the Right…I agree with a lot of their “ideals” (though, pretty funny how fast they go out the window when their guy is on the hook), but the lack of empathy is so off putting. I remember I was going to vote Ron Paul, and then he said the poor should die or hope their church feeds them. In a Country that’s paying billions in bonuses to bankrupt banks, etc, that’s just not an acceptable stance. The “bootstraps” thing gets so old. Left has major narrative problems, too, and almost too much empathy. It’s why I like Polis so much. He nailed a perfect balance between these things, and I can’t help but think it’s because he lived through some turmoil being a gay jew.

            I’m not poor, but I grew up poor, so to see Trump killing the poor with the printing press policies to trickle that money upward to the rich ticks me off big time. I feared that but gave him the benefit with my vote b/c he was so anti-FED on the trail. I got suckered by him and Gary Andersen! Nobody is immune.

          • Right there with ya Angry… However, I would disagree with the Left being over empathetic… They seem to be selective with their empathy which I cannot stand and means it’s all for show… Until they start understanding where these hard working rural folks are coming from they will push them further away… These people aren’t all racist ignorant rednecks… Same goes for Police, that is a hard job that all these critics couldn’t and wouldn’t do… People try to make everything about race not realizing that it’s more of a class/living situation in my opinion, like you alluded to….

            Also, I picked up an acoustic guitar to start learning… Having a blast so far, it’ll be a minute before I am decent but a great way to escape for an hour a day…

            Childers isn’t all bluegrass and doesn’t for the most part… That particular song is on a surprise instrumental fiddle album… His other work is amazing here is the first song I heard from him all acoustic: https://youtu.be/_QzcrflqDCg

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            Agree on all that and major reason I hate the “they’re stupid!” argument on the Left…YoungOrst did that a lot, and many rural people out in the boons are 20+ IQ points smarter than he is. Many aren’t, too.

            Left has MAJOR issues. Right has lack of empathy, which is sociopathic/anti-social issues, and they mask it under the guise of “personal freedom”. Well, we live in a society, so your freedom is someone else’s repression, by definition. Like, these people would argue it was personal freedom to have slaves, not seeing what it means for the slave. That’s anti social/sociopathic, and it lingers on the Right to this day.

            Why I lean middle b/c to live in a society you need compromise. Big problem now is everyone is so pissed at the other side there’s not even a conversation.

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      I don’t think anyone’s knows. The excess mortality studies are probably the best bet for numbers. Also I don’t think enough is known about the testing to call a test negative, undetected would be the better description.

      • 1
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        I would agree with you and add that the accuracy of a test can only be interpreted in the context of the prevalence of the thing you are testing for. Knowing that a test is 99.99% accurate doesn’t tell you the whole story.

      • Might be gossip, but I heard that the family insisted the 26-year-old did not die from COVID and was ignored by the local medical examiner and had to hire their own. Of course, the media ran with the panic porn of such a young person dying from it.

  37. Per Jon Wilner, Pac12 is supposed to meet at 3PM today(no mention if that’s PST, but I will assume that is what he means) and media availability will occur around 5pm. I’m expecting the announcement to come from the Pac12 account just before 5. They seem to like breaking their own news.

  38. Not official yet, but talking heads are making it sound like Pac12 will have a 6 game +1 schedule. The +1 will be the cinference championship game for 2 teams, while the rest will just get one of the leftover opponents.
    Leaves pretty much zero shot for any Pac team to make the playoffs. Best case scenario for a standout season would be Fiesta or Cotton Bowl invite.

    Still better than nothing, I guess. Still sucks they couldnt fit in a few more games in the schedule.

    • I’d be willing to bet the cfp will push the selection date at least a week eventually. Watch when Clemson or alabama have to postpone a game.

      Look at houston, 3 games already postponed. Notre dame postponed their game this week.

      So I think the PAC 12 will end up with an 8 game season.

      • Still even with an 8 game season the CFP is maybe going to take an 8-0 Oregon or maybe an 8-0 USC, possibly UW. Most likely none of those teams even at 8-0 get in due to the P12s current reputation. Style points will be back in style too… lol, gonna get the worst of the worst with college football “politics” this year, though we are already geared up for talking politics.

      • How could they possibly have more than 7 games unless they decide to push the selection day back immediately. They’re planning for 7 total games. They couldn’t just tack a couple on at the end half way into the season. Plus, the chances of the full schedule playing out without delays is small. They’ll be lucky to get 7 games in and it’s going to be a shit show when they have a few teams with only 4-5 games played before the championship game. What do they do if UW is 4-0 because they have an outbreak and took 2 weeks off but the beavs go 5-1? Does UW get the nod in the championship game? Or what if beavs go 4-1 having beat a 5-1 ducks squad by 3 TDs but miss out on chance to play Colorado at home because Colorado had an outbreak. Does ducks play in championship game over the superior beavs just because beavs lose out on opportunity for easy win against buffs. Buckle up

    • I’m just glad for some distraction, even a handful of games if they can keep the kids and support staff safe, happy to see it.

      Did I also see a tweet(s) that mens and womens hops are coming back nov 25 as well?

  39. 1
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    Up above there was some discussion of energy sources, here’s a presentation (includes list of sources) that argues against the wind/solar/battery model.
    Not the often seen emotional stuff, I haven’t reviewed all the sources but what I’ve checked seem legit.
    In arguing against wind/solar this piece checks several boxes: $cost, human rights, environmental damage…
    Nuke hasn’t been around much lately, maybe he (and others) have time to chime in.

    https://www.prageru.com/video/whats-wrong-with-wind-and-solar/

      • My point was we can forget the environmental arguments b/c some renewables are actually cheaper now.

        What vested interest do you have in keeping FF around if renewables are cheaper and cleaner?

        • Ideological political beliefs and keeping money in big oils pockets.

          It’s obviously no longer a working model. Most of the major oil producers in the world are divesting from oil and moving to renewables. They are also relabeling as ‘energy companies’ instead of oil companies. This is a joke considering energy is a term that has been used by companies that mange generation facilities and grids for about 80 years. What generation facilities are owned by shelll, exxon, or bp? They are resource extraction companies.

          • Yeah, I was just wondering if BB works in that industry or something, because he seems vested/emotional about it. We should be cheering cheaper and cleaner energy and that it’s finally here. It’s actually about the only thing (cheap/zero input costs) that can save the economy long-term. If people are in this industry now they should be training on the new technologies so they don’t fall behind, and then their fear would probably go away. So much of the resistance seems to be fear of losing jobs, but if those people just spend the energy training on the new tech they wouldn’t have that. This is how creative deconstructionism works.

          • Schumpeter and the economists who adopt his succinct summary of the free market’s ceaseless churning echo capitalism’s critics in acknowledging that lost jobs, ruined companies, and vanishing industries are inherent parts of the growth system. The saving grace comes from recognizing the good that comes from the turmoil. Over time, societies that allow creative destruction to operate grow more productive and richer; their citizens see the benefits of new and better products, shorter work weeks, better jobs, and higher living standards.

            Herein lies the paradox of progress. A society cannot reap the rewards of creative destruction without accepting that some individuals might be worse off, not just in the short term, but perhaps forever. At the same time, attempts to soften the harsher aspects of creative destruction by trying to preserve jobs or protect industries will lead to stagnation and decline, short-circuiting the march of progress. Schumpeter’s enduring term reminds us that capitalism’s pain and gain are inextricably linked. The process of creating new industries does not go forward without sweeping away the preexisting order.

            Zero energy inputs would be the holy grail. It actually could even make the math of paying off the national debt viable. i.e. the one way out of this without having to resort to inflation.

            We’re seeing this before our eyes with oil majors. Some started adapting long ago, some will buy out renewable companies to survive, and some stuck in the old paradigm will just go away, but this train is in motion and is only going to pick up steam now that the math of KWH makes sense, and even better, is getting asymptotic towards 0.

          • It’s also a natural mechanism for monopoly busting. It allows for new companies and ideas to grow faster than large entities like to adapt.

          • Typical of wave 2 of early adopters. Most fail or get bought out. Those that survive become the new big boys eventually. Wave 1 is usually ideological/science nerds and almost all of them fail or merge into something else. Wave three is what we are in now for renewables where it finally makes economic sense and companies can develop and grab market without need for large investors. Wave 3 is also when you would expect the older companies to start the adoption process instead of trying to stop wave 1/2.

            Wave 1: Sharp Corporation, ISOFOTON, Kyocera, Trinity Solar, Petersen Dean(tons more lost to time)
            Wave 2: Tesla, First Solar, Cypress Creek, SunPower, Recurrent Energy, Hecate Energy, Sunnova, Namaste, Semper Solaris,
            Wave 3: Everyone and their mother

          • I do work in the energy industry, but I work with all of it. Literally, all facets. I also work in the defense and aerospace industry. Fossil fuels account for about 2% of business, renewable is around 4%, nuclear around 15%.
            I have nothing against renewable, but i dealt with Solyndra directly (“I” don’t deal with renewable anymore) but those jokers were living the high life with all that sweet gov money. It had to go somewhere because they certainly weren’t making solar panels like they should have been. Those dudes handed over blank checks for parts we make, no haggling, nothing, just puking cash for parts (that cash is your taxes btw). From our renewable guys nothing has changed in the industry since about 2007. Its a racket.
            Wind is a whole different deal. Thats actually run pretty good and is somewhat viable. They’re just a gigantic eyesore. The far east end of the Gorge is basically ruined for me personally. I used to love the rolling grass hills and rimrock. Now its an ugly ass wind farm.
            I personally think nuke is the way to go. We work with all of the contractors and with the DOE and the Navy in various capacities. Its initial cost is high but modern nuclear design is extremely safe.
            And it can make loads of needed energy for cheaper (over the long run), safer and without the enormous wind farms that will be needed to duplicate its energy power. We could even possibly take out a majority of the hydro dams, so its a win-win.

          • Nuke is definitely the logical solution. The SMR do make the capital costs easier to swallow. Problem will always be public sentiment.

          • I agree, Fukushima Daiichi didn’t help the cause. But some DOE guys told me that this was a known issue and corruption is the main culprit (isn’t it always?). They were warned before this plant was ever built what happened would happen. Over all the plant survived the earthquake and did what it was designed to do, they just overlooked the tsunami.

          • The corruption idea is interesting. Talking to people I know working for/contracted by the IAEA to investigate it they think its more of a cultural issue. Idk how much you have worked with Japan or TEPCO but they have a real issue with accepting mistakes/issues. When I worked for a pump company that supplied to their plants it would take months to years to get signatures on defect/repair reports. It is very normal in large pumps for their to be casting errors that require extra grinding or weld repair. They wouldn’t sign them because doing so meant we were at fault which was a HUGE deal to them. To us it was just a sign this shit so we can fix it right. When they placed the generators it was cheaper to put them in that location and then build a sea wall than put them up the hill. They commissioned a big study and it said the maximum wave height would be 25′. There was doubt that this report was accurate so they refused to challenge it or do anything about it because culturally it was difficult. So they built a 28′ wall and placed the generators there without getting a second opinion or challenging the conclusions. The wave was between 35-45′ high at that wall so everything got flooded and they had no power to cool the reactor. If they had gotten multiple reports and placed the generator up the hill or built a higher sea wall we would still have no idea how to pronounce Fukushima.

            Every country has its own querks with engineering culture. Germans are known for procedures and precision for no reason, the English care about results more than replication and the US cares more about getting shit done than doing it perfect the first time, you can always repair a problem before you ship!!

            Fun fact – I was senior in the nuclear program when that happened and it completely screwed all my job opportunities!

    • I disagree with his premise and found various ‘facts’ that were incorrect or weird extrapolations.

      “It would take America’s biggest battery factory 500 years to store enough energy for one day of America’s demand”. First of all Tesla doesn’t publish it’s daily capacity and those batteries are made for cars mostly not mass energy storage which is a totally different battery system. Second what kind of grid would supply all of the US all at once? That makes no sense, battery storage would be specifically for meeting demand without onscreasing supply. We already do this all the time with natural gas plants that get kicked on and off during peak use times. The difference would be we could use both unstable supply (solar and wind are both dependent on weather) and store energy during non-peak times. It has worked fantastically everywhere it’s been installed as a grid system. Third, why the heck would we try to make all the batteries in one factory?

      I stopped looking through his sources after 8. 4 of them were his own opinion pieces published under the Manhattan Institute banner. They are a right leaning psuedo science journal/research firm that mostly presents conservative arguements and hit pieces posing as science. They also will not reveal funding sources which is a huge no no in scientific writing.
      https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/manhattan-institute-for-policy-research/

      Overall I don’t think this is a fair or accurate analysis. I think it’s goal is to change public opinion on fossil fuels by making other things bigger enemies. Notice that there isn’t really comparisons. He just says stuff like 45% capture for wind is the best we can hope for…so? That’s actually really great efficiency compared to most energy sources and it’s renewable and abundant.

      There is no reason we can’t create a full economy and energy cycle based on wind, solar and water resources. With newer battery technology and incredible computing power it would be a massive benefit economically and environmentally. I would add nuclear to the mix but frankly with grid stabilization it’s not needed, it’s expensive and people are terrified of it.

      Fun side note – this looks just like the anti-nuclear hit pieces that were made from 1950 to the mid 2000’s that the fossil fuel industry funded. We could have been completely off fossil fuels for electricity by the 00s.

  40. Mountain West has announced this evening that they’re back as well. Except they will play an 8 game schedule starting October 24th.
    Not sure why it takes the Pac12 teams 2 full extra weeks to get ready? Several schools share a similar geographic location to Pac schools, so doesnt seem like smoke delaying workouts can be the excuse.

    • Heard Larry Scott interview this morning with Dan and Nigel. He stated the recommended time to get ready for a season is 6 weeks. I’m not sure where that recommendation comes from. Said a schedule will be coming out soon after working with networks. Nigel asked if the Pac12 networks will be getting less games since ESPN and Fox are promised a certain amount of games (this will be impossible to meet due to the shortened season).

      Unfortunately, he shot down any hopes of expanding the playoffs this year. Said that idea doesn’t have much traction. Hope is just to get the season completed.

      • I really hope the P12 Network has fewer games. Maybe that’s one of the reasons the conference fired so many employees? Or is the network a separate entity?

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    Trump is going to win…and it probably wont be close (similar to 2016). All you have to look at is the difference in rallies, enthusiasm, etc. All of that is happening despite the media’s constant negativity about him. When you take a step back (remove any personal bias against either candidate)…it’s pretty obvious what’s about to happen.

    • There’s a lot of enthusiasm to get him out, too. You just don’t have to hold a rally to do that because watching him fires those people up at home. It’s going to be close and come down to a handful of States.

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      Not close similar to 2016?

      Didn’t he lose popular vote by 3 million people? That to me says close or maybe even that electoral college is rigged. But maybe your not close it different than mine

      • I was thinking that, and the denial of a Blue Wave in the mid-terms.
        A friend of mine who denied there would be a Blue Wave in 2018 (what I predicted) is writing me on FB saying Trump in a landslide. So I asked him to put money on that and define what a landslide means, and he started to rant about how if it’s not a landslide it’s because of the mail in ballots. lol

        This election will be close, and it will be contested by both sides. I also think the climate is ripe for assassinations (not saying I am considering this!). But someone will, and that’s a major risk to both sides. The Civil War thing is in play, but I’m 40/60 on that thinking people are still too lazy and complacent to draw blood with themselves. But those seeds are sowing and will germinate (garden analogies!) within the next 10 years. Highly recommend people prep for that mentally, physically, and food preps, etc.

        • You don’t even need a widescale civil war to wreak havoc on the country. You just need Antifa and the Proud Boys duking it out in a few critical areas and they could do massive damage to our supply chain.

          Unfortunately, violence between the wacko factions is all but guaranteed in November.

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        Presidential elections are determined by the electoral college…not popular vote. 306 to 232 is not close. The popular vote argument is irrelevant…but it’s a cute talking point. Until things change, i don’t understand why people keep beating that drum…haha.

        The other problem for the dems is they need 95% of the black vote to win. Trump got 8% in 2016 and won handily (electoral college). Most data shows that 8% only growing…

        • Some things you may want to consider before taking a bet:
          Candidates
          Tiny Margins in 2016
          Current Polling
          Third Party Candidates
          Demographics are not favorable at all.
          Money

          Candidates:
          Clinton was probably the most divisive and unpopular democratic candidate since Stephen Douglas.
          Biden is generally agreeable to the majority of people. No one loves him but hes essentially powdered hot chocolate on a winter day. Its cold in the US right now and even the shittiest hot chocolate gives peace.
          Trump was an unknown quantity in 2016. No one really knew what he would do or what was true. Now we have a much better picture and its not nearly as exciting.

          Margins:
          Arizona by 4%, Colorado 3% (Clinton), Florida 2%, Georgia 6%, Maine 2.5% (Clinton), Michigan 0.3%, Minnesota 1.5% (Clinton), Nevada 2.5% (Clinton), New Hampshire 0.4% (Clinton), North Carolina 4%, Pennsylvania 1%, Virgina 5% (Clinton), Wisconsin 1%.

          Current Polls: Arizona (T-4% B), Florida (Toss Up), Georgia (T-2% B), Iowa (Toss up), Maine (15%-17% B), Michigan (4%-12% B), Minnesota (9%-16% B), Nevada (4%-11% B), New Hampshire (3-13% B), North Carolina (1%-4% B), Ohio (1%-5% B, Trump won by 8% in 2016), Pennsylvania (4-9% B), Virginia (3%-14% B), Wisconsin (4%-10% B)

          Third Party Candidates: Johnson and Stein picked up margin eating votes in critical states all over the place. This year there is no viable third party candidates.

          Demographics:
          3-4 million boomers have died in the last 4 years. 25 million Gen Z are eligible to vote that were not in 2016 (poll between 60-75% democrat). Mellennials are now all between 21 and 40 years old, they will have higher turnout (poll between 60-70% democrat). You mention black vote but really typical race demographics don’t mean much, generational are a way bigger deal. There will be significant increases in Asian vote and possibly Black vote but its small compared to generational difference. Where race does come into play is Millennials and Gen-X are more supportive of POC issues than any other generations and will vote accordingly. Other major issues to this generation is LGBQT rights and environment which there is a pretty clear message from the parties on.

          Money:
          Biden has more money in the bank, is out raising Trump and out spending Trump.

          • Bingo.

            Why I originally had Biden in a landslide, but his dementia and Trump’s evil genius are both in play, so I’ve reduced that to close race.

          • A lot of good info NB. The only point I would LARGELY take caution on is the polling. I think we all learned in 2016 how rigged/wrong those can be. The silent majority is REAL.

            For the record…I will gladly eat crow if I’m wrong.

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            You are absolutely right. The polling agencies have made plenty of noise about methodology changes and data improvement. It was more accurate in 2018 and the primaries. I base more on three things I’m very confident in but only one has data to back it.

            1) Clinton was a flawed and awful candidate.

            2) More people have become disenfranchised with Trump than have decided to switch their 2016 vote to him.

            3) The generational demographic change will be massive. GoP has done very little to get young voter support since Bush. Typically millennials concerns, challenges and life style are mocked more than listened to.

          • Related to Part 1 you listed, I personally know quite a few Bernie supporters who flat out didnt vote in 2016 because they didnt like Clinton and/or the way the DNC handled Bernie. This time around, Bernie has endorsed Biden and is encouraging his supoorters to vote, which could help swing tight races that were lost last time

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    Remember about a year ago when I said my base case is Trump loses but won’t leave? From memory people brushed that off as not likely, etc. Now it’s the mainstream narrative and expectation. Can’t find the oldest ones, but this one is from April:

    My baseline is Biden wins in a landslide but Trump refuses to leave office and uses the judges (possibly 3 by then if Ginsberg dies) to keep him in.

    I no longer think Biden wins in a landslide, though that is possible if PA, FL, AZ, and WI go his way. NC and MI in play, too. Election comes down to six States whether it will be close or a landslide.

    Oh wow just found this one from Dec 2018. I knew this idea went way further back but didn’t realize almost 2 years ahead of the curve on it.

    Supreme Court is the biggest problem. Trump will be gone in less than two years, but his judges might sit another 50, and Ginsburg looks near death, so he might get a 3rd. That is a serious problem for America if we have the worst President in history electing 3 judges.

    It was somewhere around then I realized he won’t leave. I actually think now this is more Trump manipulation/evil genius, because people are not going to want to watch that play out in the courts, so they might just vote for him to avoid the chaos (i.e. the placate the baby so it doesn’t cry vote).

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      Iowa is now in play aswell. Senate is in play. Trump won’t commit to the results and his admin is actively looking for new creative ways to ignore the results.

      I saw yesterday that the house is writing abill to term limit SCOTUS to 18 years.

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        Three things I find funny about the “Trump will refuse to leave office” meme:
        -Trump says crazy stuff all the time and people STILL take him at face value. After four years of this.
        -Hillary publicly stated Biden should refuse and contest a losing result, which is pretty much the same thing.
        -The right-wing media outlets I read have been silent on the whole thing, as if implicitly saying “yeah, even we can’t believe he said that. We have no way to spin this.”

        My base case is a contested election until at least January.

          • That is mind blowing. Iowa should be firmly red.

            A lot of young people moved in, and even Californians/coastal people…been saying to everyone that housing prices (i.e. Federal Reserve pumping them up) will create these types of political effects via migrations. Predicted that in 2012 when homes began rising.

          • Cant just be that though. 1.52 million people voted there in 2016. 10% of that is 152,000. Per population estimates Iowa gained 50,000 to its population in the last 4 years. So assuming roughly half of the Iowa population votes like 2016 the maximum swing due to imports is probably like 30k? I’m sure some people left Iowa and others came. Either way the polls are showing atleast 100,000 votes switched opinion. Thats nuts.

            Ofc the polls could all be terribly wrong and this whole analysis was a massive waste of time!

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      Just because he threatens litigation for what would appear to be invalid results doesn’t mean that he is not going to give up his seat lmao. People need to chill out. The reason why he is saying this is because there are significant issues in local elections in the NJ/Philly area where there are either duplicate ballots being counted, or ballots are not being accounted for.

      Meanwhile, Clinton instructed Joe not to concede the election at any cost. That likely also means litigation to contest results, and people need to chill out about that.

      Trump must nominate and the Senate must approve the nomination before the election results come in. We cannot afford to have a 4-4 tie in the Supreme Court. That ruins anyone’s argument for why Trump should leave the seat vacant. Likewise, Trump is not going to nominate Tom Cotton (who is for revoking Roe v Wade); he’s likely going to choose a pretty moderate conservative.

      If the debates happen, I think Trump wins at least 400 electoral votes. Joe is going to get castrated on live television and it is cruel that the DNC is putting him in this position.

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        If the debates happen, I think Trump wins at least 400 electoral votes. Joe is going to get castrated on live television and it is cruel that the DNC is putting him in this position.

        Agreed.
        But I think everyone already knows that, and a Biden vote is an anti-Trump vote, so they don’t care about the dementia. Probably way more focus on VP debates, because anyone voting (D) is voting Harris for President, essentially.

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          Not sure the current resident of the White House has all of his faculties at the moment either. He has an attack game but other than that, what does he bring to the table? I honestly don’t think he knows one thing about any policy and makes things up which are easily refuted.

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            Yeah but dementia brings into play decision making (wars, nukes, etc). So Biden losing those faculties due to physical decline is more serious than Trump losing his mind due to this narcissistic rage that’s triggering his breakdown. So while is breakdown is obvious and happening in real time as well, I think most consider it less serious because he can still make decisions (even if they’re bad decisions), whereas with Biden people conclude he can’t make decisions. Sort of true but that’s what a good cabinet is for, VP, etc. So voting Biden is voting for the people around him + ditching the problem child. It makes sense all around, and hence why it will probably be close either way.

            Personally I think narcissism is more dangerous than dementia. It’s one of the few mental illnesses with zero treatment, and as the narc gets wounded they become more dangerous. Hence what we’re seeing. We’re left with two awful choices. My plumber is a better candidate, tbh. So it makes you wonder how it’s come to this.

            Saying he makes things up has no merit. People have chosen to ignore that as Trump being Trump and even a cognizant strategy.

        • Oddly enough, Trump should feel good about the VP debate, too. Rememebr 2016? Pence is a former media guy and his live delivery on air is fantastic. Even CNN admitted he wiped the floor with Kane.

  43. any informed speculation out there as to who the Beavs’ scheduled cross-over opponent might be? You have to figure Cal and Stanford are a lock for some combination for SC and UCLA, limiting the NW schools to the Arizona teams, UU and Colorado. Anyone want to bet that of those four OSU ends up with the most difficult opponent and Oregon or Washington get the easiest slot?

  44. IF (and that’s a big if) the Conference keeps the in-division schedule as would have played out originally, then OSU’s scheduled cross over game should be on the road versus one of the the “Mountain” or “Desert” schools. Here’s my logic model: OSU was expected to play WSU, Cal, and UO at home, and UW and Stanford on the road. I expect the league will hold to that(and for every other team) in order to maintain the regularity of flipping home fields from year to year. If that’s the case, then OSU’s “sixth,” cross over, game should be on the road. Whether UU is the team we want to play, I yield to others with greater insight.

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