Home Football Oregon State @ Fresno St (Game Week Thread)

Oregon State @ Fresno St (Game Week Thread)

By
angry
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261

I’m not sure yet, but I’m leaning towards changing and taking Fresno St in this one. Reason being is the Beavs still showed the same problem of thinking they are better than they are and taking half the game off. That won’t work on the road vs Fresno.

Early prediction: Fresno 31, Beavs 20

Subject to change game day.

261 COMMENTS

  1. 1

    Let down is a major concern. But this could be another streak ended since the Beavs have never won at Fresno St.
    I’ll say week 1 to week 2 jump gets the Beavs a close win. Haener won’t be easy but the Beavs may have a pass rush to affect him.

    Nolan tips are gone and he is lights out, run game is going to be improved after a tough BSU Dline.

    I’ll take Beavs for the win 38-34

    Reply
    • 5

      Cal Poly sacked Haener 3 times. Looking at his game log, he had quite a few games last year where he was sacked 3+ times. Their OL is suspect.

      Haener is good, but I think some people are overrating him. Last year, he feasted on bad defenses and had more middling results against good ones. His games against Boise State (3 INT, 5 sacks) and Wyoming (96 passing yards) were brutal. He threw 4 INT’s against Hawaii (which wasn’t a good defense).

      My biggest concern is how different JS’s teams have played on the road. That’s the real problem they need to address. This won’t be an easy environment in which to do it.

      38-28 Beavs

      Reply
      • 6
        3

        I’m not concerned with anything having to do with Fresno. We can and should beat them, but if they Beavs are going to keep checking out of games, it won’t happen.

        Reply
          • 3
            4

            Well the offense checked out on Saturday, so Bray has no say on that matter, though I think either side has the potential to check out because it clearly hasn’t been instilled in them that they can’t. They lost games last year by checking out, and they opened game 1 checking out, so until it actually changes and they play a full game, there’s no reason to believe it will.

            Reply
          • 1
            1

            If Luke Musgrave doesn’t have false start and holding penalty back to back on goal line, the Beavs deliver knock out punch and cruise to easy victory. The offense didn’t completely check out but there were some individuals that had mental lapses plus BSU made some key adjustments. I agree, Beavs should win but not sure if I totally trust that we’ll be able to put it all together

            Reply
  2. 8

    Anyone else see Champ ended up at Arkansas St? He is one of PFF’s top ranked receivers after Week 1.

    I’m glad he finally found somewhere he could be a significant contributor at a lower level.

    Reply
  3. 6

    How does Fresno State run defense project? If OSU can improve run blocking, run consistently, and cut back on penalties, i think they will win.

    This staff has been breaking long term trends, next up should be a win @ Fresno. If the players are serious about “changing the narrative” and not letting up, this is a great opportunity to prove it.

    Reply
  4. 4

    I actually think the weather factor benefits the Beavs this week.
    Fresno will be 106 or higher every day this week except Saturday.
    Last I checked, they also dont have an indoor practice factility.
    So Fresno has limited opportunities to have a solid practice where they arent bothered by the heat, while OSU has all week of decent weather pmus an indoor facility.
    Then, come game day, the high temp that day will be below 100 plus cloudy, and the game isnt till 7:30, when temps will have cooled significantly.
    Plus the chance for thunderstorms which could delay the game even.
    I’d have to say advantage Beavs on this one.

    Reply
    • 4
      8

      Agreed until I saw the Beavs give up for 3/4 of the game once grabbing a lead. A problem that has dated back to Riley’s decent teams and nobody has been able to correct.

      Reply
      • 2

        Taking time off doesn’t necessarily have to be on the players. It was apparent with Beavs up 27-3 in the 3rd that there were different personnel in the game — coaches going two and three deep on the defensive side. Good for getting the backups experience, but obviously nowhere near the level of the starters.
        Also, the 4th down attempts near the 50 yrd line when game is close is still very frustrating. With the defense showing promise, no need to go there.

        Reply
        • 1

          That 4th down attempt was set up by the 3rd down play. They tried to do something on 3rd down knowing if they didn’t get the 1st down they were going to go for it on 4th. I’m fine with that because the defense was playing well. It’s the going for it on 4th because you’re trying too hard to try and find a way to keep a drive alive after 2 incomplete passes and a short 3-5 yard gain at midfield. There was only 1 4th down attempt all game. At home is fine with the lead once a game at most. On the road with the lead, kick the ball and let your defense work.

          Reply
          • 2

            Yeah agree….for the most part. Though the first 4th down attempt was when the score was 0-0? It was successful but could have been a disaster.

            Reply
  5. 2

    41-17 Beavs.

    Originally had this as a loss, but Fresno has a huge weakness in the middle of their lines and struggles to run the ball. That’s a major problem for them. It will be close at half but Fenwick will bury them in the fourth quarter.

    Reply
    • 1
      1

      Haener or Tedford said in their presser yesterday that Oregon State will force Fresno State to beat Oregon State through the air and it will present a challenge for their WR group that their WR group is looking forward to the challenge. They do respect their opponents and give coach speak at the same time.

      Reply
  6. 2

    They won the first half of the game, but didn’t adjust to the backup who is a dual threat QB. outside the 1 long run by Taylen Green of Boise, that was the only big play the beavs gave up. I only see this team taking a half off if they get up by 3+ scores. With that said, hope they learn they can’t take plays off, especially if the offense stalls. That’s what happened against Boise. Between penalties, dropped passes, interceptions, and fumbles are more concerning than complacency and checking out of the game early. With Trent Bray, the players being more vocal than last year, more senior leadership, I don’t see this team being flat coming to start the game on the road like they were last year.

    Early prediction is 38-24 Beavs

    Reply
    • 4

      There’s no preseason in college football, unfortunately. Somehow the second string guys (e.g. Skyler Thomas, Ryan Cooper, Joe Golden, Cade Brownholtz) need meaningful snaps before conference play to build depth.

      They got exposed a little against Boise’s first team.

      Reply
      • 1

        The game plan was to move the pocket into Bachmeier aka bullrush all game long by the DL. I don’t see that happening against Haener as the game plan. JS knows Haeners prep and mentality when it comes to game prep. So does that mean JS will know Haener’s weaknesses and give those insights to coach Bray? Tbd.

        My guess is the defense will blitz a bit more this game and pressure Haener early by flushing him from the pocket and place a spy on him as well. Does Fresno State run a 3 wide with TE or 4 wide and single back with no TE? spy can have dual duties, spy TE and QB.

        Reply

  8. Personally I’ve never been impressed with Fenwick and last Saturday did nothing to improve my opinion. Maybe he’s the best of the lot, but I say give some other guys a shot and see if someone sparks. Or just play Colletto more out of the backfield in more situations…

    Reply

    • If its part of your TV package, you can stream it through your TV provider stream app or the CBS sports app. Or, find a local bar that stays open Laure and watch at a bar.

      Reply
    • 2

      I’m going to look into a free one week trial with You Tube TV or Hulu. Not many carry CBS Sports Network. I cut the cord with DIRECTV a few years ago.

      Reply
  12. 2

    Pac12 pickem games are set for week2.
    All 12 Pac teams have a game with a point spread available I think for the first time since we’ve been doing this.
    USC plays Stanford, so I picked 1 additional non conference matchup(Baylor @BYU looked interesting) to round out the schedule

    Reply

  13. More from the Who’s Afraid of Jake Haener? file:
    -Haener was PFF’s 106th ranked QB in week 1. That’s after playing against Cal Poly.

    Reply
      • 4

        Chance was #8 or #4 if you just look at passer rating. You could argue that he’s #1 adjusted for competition because the guys ahead of him played against Middle TN, Florida Atlantic and Louisville. I would guess BSU has a better defense than those three.

        Taylen Green was #175 (including low snap count guys) and the #214 passer. He was the #10 QB in running.

        Reply
        • 1
          1

          I remember when we played @ Louisville and they were ranked #11 in the country. Man, they haven’t been relevant for a long time. I’m surprised Nolan is ranked that high especially after Oregon getting thumped and Utah @ Florida, etc.

          I like our chances(pun intended) of winning this weekend.

          Reply
          • 2

            Werent they relevant when Lamar Jackson played there? Not sure what years or how high they were ever ranked, I just seem to remember they were pretty competitive with him

            Reply
          • 1

            At Louisville. One of the backwards punt games.

            Brian Brohm? I think was their QB. It was a complete ass pounding on national TV.

            Good times. Thanks for the memory

            Reply

          • Negative point was Hecker @ Wisconsin. Why Riley didn’t just go for it i have no idea. Punting there was going to do you no good. -4 yard meet punt.

            Reply

          • You may be correct. Was the Louisville game where we had a punt blocked? I seem to recall going for it on a punt where the punter threw the ball to a receiver but missed badly.

            Reply
  15. 3

    Another key factor for this Saturday: depth.

    With temps that hot, you’re going to get more guys than usual needing to come off for injury, cramping, or just getting subbed out for a breather quicker than usual. Beavs should have the edge.

    Reply
      • 4

        At this point, lack of visibility is hurting us. It’s not actually coaches voting, it’s their support staff. The only way to get noticed is to win a game earlier than 1:30AM EST.

        Reply
        • 7

          The vicious cycle of no respect>late kickoff>no viewers>no buzz>no respect> no votes>no respect>late kickoff again

          Then you find the tv viewership stats that bury programs like OSU based on viewership when it is mainly dictated by kickoff times set by networks based on viewership predictions. Circular reasoning that reaffirms it’s internal biases.

          Winning can change it but it must be an extended run of winning beyond the little engine that could mentality. JS must instill a winning program attitude of no quit intensity that other schools wilt against. The Ducks enjoyed it for a while when teams knew it was over after they scored a few tds and opponents folded for the most part.

          Go Beavs! Get a win at Fresno St

          Reply
          • 1

            Also ‘set by the networks’ in 2022, Beavs have a play-by-play person who sounds as though she was raised in a sawmill. Perhaps it’s meant to jar you awake for late night games.

            Reply
          • 7

            Don’t lose to shitty teams this season. Last year could have been so much more impressive with wins over Colorado and California. It was there for the taking because realistically there aren’t going to be many years where they beat Utah and So Cal.

            Reply
  18. 3

    Good news for next weekend: Harrison won’t have another game like he did Saturday. Gould and him could go off. You saw bsu adjust to covering Musgrave after a fast start. Overman should get a few open looks soon.

    Reply

  21. Watched the CP vs FS game. FS looking like a well oiled machine with limited penalties and decent execution in the first quarter.
    CP did get a shutout in the second quarter with a couple of sacks….Fresno State line looks very exploitable.
    Also, CP shot themselves in the foot and missed out on several opportunities to score.
    FS seems very beatable, but like others have mentioned— JS has several losses to inferior opponents, so who the hell knows….it’s college football.
    Look for the Beavs to takeover late in the game as FS starting lines get ground down.

    Beavs 38 – FS 30
    (Score could easily be flipped if Nolan gets careless with the ball again)

    Reply
  22. 3
    1

    Hard to understand how someone that thought Beavs would beat FSU before the season started would now think the Beavs will lose to them after watching both teams play their first game. Coming into the season, I didn’t think Beavs would have a legit chance to win this game but they showed a lot of potential in beating BSU, had zero injuries, and I’d expect them to be able to fix most of their shortcomings this week in practice.

    Reply
    • 1
      7

      For me it’s simple: because they mailed it in and didn’t play the entire 60 minutes. Immaturity/ego. That doesn’t really win on the road.

      Reply
      • 5

        Yes but didn’t you assume this would be the case prior to the season? I’m much more optimistic about the season now than I was before BSU because it seems Nolan has progressed, our D seems to be serviceable or even good, and errors are correctable. Granted it’s a small sample size but at least it’s a small indicator vs nothing.

        Reply
        • 3
          1

          No, I thought the team would mature. Part of their problem last year was not completing games. I didn’t expect it to be a problem after another year and more mature players + better captains this year. It was the most disappointing aspect of Saturday.

          Reply
          • 1
            1

            Doesn’t help when the team isn’t used to being that dominant in a game going into halftime. The defense is better than good and for sure better than serviceable. They will keep us in more games this season than last season against USC, Utah, UW, ASU. Oregon. This defense will not play penalty free in games. They will have at least 1 personal foul penalty a game at least 2-3 PI penalties a game, but they will cause problems for opposing offenses to operate. The swagger plays into the “relax and take it easy” mentality. When you have confidence and swagger and you get to a point where you know you have a game in the bag so to speak, you tend to have a natural “let up” mentality. This is the next step of elite teams where they want to make sure the opponent does not come back. If the other team is fighting and clawing still, then you need to keep the petal down and match their intensity. If they are rolling over and taking the beating then I can see letting up once you reach the 4th quarter and up by 3-4 scores. Then again, I love proving we’re the better team and just thumping teams 52+ points to <20 points in a game. Exert your dominance and let it be known. Change the narrative from nice guy U to dominance U

            Reply

          • They didn’t plan for a dual threat QB coming in to start the second half. That threw their adjustments and assignments for Brachmeier out the window. If you think about it, it was a really smart move by Avalos to wait until the start of the second half to get Oregon State on their toes and it worked. If it weren’t for a 74 yard TD run by a gazelle of a QB, the defense didn’t give up any large plays of 15+ yards except maybe a pass or two all game. Trent Bray had to adjust IN GAME right after they spent 15 minutes talking about adjustments if any for the defense thinking Bachmeier would still be in the game.

            Reply
  23. 3

    The penalties and turnovers on offense have been prevalent since spring practice, which is something to keep an eye on. Otherwise, it’s good Smith didn’t show more of the playbook up three scores.

    Reply

  27. Looks like they are redoing the temp lights on the new new side. They went up only a short time before the first game so testing was probably done too quickly. But hoping for some day games so that’s not an issue.

    Reply

    • I imagine they will take them on and off the structure so they can work. Next home game in Reser is in 2 weeks. They don’t need the temp lights up there for 14 week days where they are in the way for them to work.

      Reply

  28. Wow Beavs actually opened as underdogs +1.5 and now the line has moved to Beavs -1. I’m shocked by that, Beavs should (and need to) win this game convincingly. At least by 1TD. I’m sure its somewhat unfair to Fresno but there will be no national love received by winning this game even by 14+. Need to make a major statement and show everyone this team is legit.

    Reply
  29. 1
    1

    Here’s a future look at matchups for TV of Week 4 with Beavs hosting USC.

    Week 3 teams that will have national games:

    Wisconsin @ Ohio State
    Clemson @ Wake Forest
    Arkansas @ TA&M
    ND @ UNC
    USC @ Oregon State
    Florida @ Tennessee
    Utah @ ASU

    Possible games
    Oregon @ Wazzu
    Stanford @ UW
    Texas @ TTech

    Reply
      • 1

        Think they’d have game day at a half-built facility? Do they usually set up just outside stadiums?

        Its kind of funny that most people can’t stand ESPN but seem to want ESPN gameday in Corvallis.

        Reply

      • Sine Ohio state already hosted I don’t see game day going back there week 4 so my guess would be Florida/Tenn or Clemson/Wake or even Ark/A&M. Since you know ESPN is in bed with the SEC…

        Though they also have a raging hard on for USC so they could in fact do game day for us, but I would most likely bet on Florida/Tennessee

        Reply
      • 1

        No way we get Gameday Week 4. It’s highly unlikely we’ll be ranked based on how few votes the Boise State win got us. We’ll probably be on the fringe heading into USC. If we win that one, we’ll move into the low 20’s, high teens.

        Reply
  30. 2
    2

    I’m still a bit concerned with the PI calls on our DBs. It’s one thing if they’re blanketing the receivers and have some inadvertent early contact, but from what I saw, they were getting beaten or completely out of position, and just ran into the receivers without seeing where the ball was. A good QB can exploit that. It’s certainly not as bad as it has been in the past, but it can be a huge swing in momentum on 3rd and long. I hope it’s not much of a factor the rest of the season.

    Reply
        • 2
          1

          Just tired of people saying we had too many defensive penalties…we really didn’t. One was Wright putting his hands on the back of a Boise WR that wasn’t necessary because he had better position for the INT without touching the WR. there was 1 or 2 that were blatantly obvious the DB was beat and they interfered. Bray didn’t say anything alarming about cutting down on PI’s. The one glaring difference….no defensive holding penalties. Keep an eye on the amount of defensive holding penalties and illegal hands to the face by the DL and face mask penalties in general. I bet they will be close to 0 all season for those 3 penalties. PI will be the ones we primarily will be penalized for this season.

          Reply
          • 3

            https://youtu.be/JeQcuu832C8
            Here’s Bray, Rawls, and Oladapo today. Around 4:40 Bray sails past the opportunity to talk about penalties and shows coaching smarts as he points out what Fresno will be taking from film. As Beavers4 says, no concern about D penalties on Bray’s part.

            PS: Do ya think Rawls has an intense focus on one particular thing when he’s on the field? Seems so from this interview.

            Reply
          • 2

            The Offensive penalties are the worst. Vs BSU in 3rd quarter there was a first and goal, then the penalties left them at the 30+ yrd line….that’s horrible. Need to cut down on those big time.

            Reply
          • 1

            Agreed. Offensive penalties and special teams penalties are the worst ones. Offensive penalties clearly stall drives as evident in the Boise game. Musgrave needs to learn better technique and concede when he’s beat. Better to have a tackle for a.1-2 yard loss or no gain than backed up 10 yards.

            Reply

          • Yeah I get a penalty if it may result in a blindside fumble or injury to your QB, but down in the red zone should be running plays, rollouts, and fades — quick plays that don’t require extensive amount of time. They cleanup those penalties and certainly getting another 3 or 7 on the board the way they were rolling.

            Reply
  31. 1

    Weather looks to be less of a factor, weather.com shows 90 for the high Saturday; should be less than that at kickoff.
    OTOH, the crowd will be a big factor down there……a real test of the maturity and focus of the Beavs, we’ll see what 6 veteran captains can do.

    Reply
  32. 2

    I think the spread is correct on this one. It’s a tossup for me. I’m actually a lot more optimistic after game 1. “So your saying there’s a chance”-DumbandDumber

    I like the Beavs 28-24. Defense gets a late stand and tackles the QB on a scramble(like at CAL many moons ago).

    GO BEAVERS!

    Reply
  33. 1

    If Nolan plays well we win if not the defense will need play really well again and the run game must be much better. So many of these streaks that bring up or have little to do with this team or coaches. The 0-6 at Fresno has nothing to do with this particular team aside from Smith being the coach. The 1-5 on the has a lot to do with this team considering how many players are back. This team needs to show it can win on the road and play all four quarters at a high level.

    I originally picked them to lose but now am leaning towards the win and maybe a blowout. I think this team will come out sharp and have cleaned up penalties, drops, turnovers etc. The thing about cleaning these things up is that they’re going into such a raucous environment. Does anybody know how full its supposed to be? I just think the run game is going to be better and Fresno is going to end up being 1 dimensional and the D will be able to really get after Haener.

    I want to go with a 42-24 Beavs but with it being on the road and only the 2nd game I’ll go with 38-28 Beavs!

    Reply

  34. I keep forgetting they have Remigio. That guy has always given the Beavs trouble. Their other 2 receivers are really good too, both had about 800 yards last season. The dfense will really need to get pressure this game.

    Reply
  35. 11
    11

    I would say Donald J Trump is the most abjectly stupid human I have ever had the experiance to be made to listen to… But I would just be confirming reality.

    Reply
  37. 2

    Anybody see Nine Inch Nails last night? Or planning to go to the Bend show on Friday?
    If you’re on the fence about going to Bend, I recommend going.

    Reply

      • Saw them at Edgefield last night. First time also. I’m not even a huge fan but always wanted to see them at some point. Did not dissapoint. They played at least 20+ songs and about 2 hours.
        Have seen too many bands that barely fill an hour long set, so the extra time was great. And the sound system was awesome, especially for an outdoor show

        Reply

        • I love hearing that, makes me even more excited! I am a huge fan, from the sounds of it, I will be an even bigger fan after tomorrow night. I’ve been hearing they really have the sound dialed in this tour.

          I saw Bush/Breaking Benjamin/Alice In Chains, Sublime with Rome/Incubus, and Ziggy Marley. All shows were a damn good time.

          I’ve heard Edgefield is legit probably better than Hayden Homes, what did you think?

          Reply
          • 1

            I mostly like Edgefield, although if you dont get there early, your remaining seating options have poor sight lines. Never been to a Bend show, so I cant compare.

            Reply
  41. 1

    My weak ass prediction that means nothing……

    Final score of 31-27. Could go either way. If the Beavs get off to a good start? They’ll win. If not? Fresneck holds on and wins.

    Go Beavs. Get it done.

    Reply
  42. 10

    I think the Beavs will win comfortably. Haener is a baller but not a running threat. I’ll take Fresno WRs vs our DBs all day, especially if we can put a pass rush on Haener.
    Hopeful that Fresno is overlooking OSU a little because they have USC the following week.
    But I’m also prepared to be disappointed, because after all, we’re the Beavs and we can’t have nice things

    Reply
    • 3

      I think a comfortable win is likely. Beaver fans just have bad memories. We should be able to get good pressure on Haener. They’ve been rotating a lot on their Oline and they gave up 3 sacks to Cal poly and I can’t see them being much improved. Their passing game does scare me though. I think they get their yards through the air but won’t be able to run which leads to pressure and turnovers.

      The wild card is Nolan. Can he play better on the road than last year? Will he protect the ball in a hostile environment? Will he continue to connect on the deep ball? Will he have a run game to take some pressure off him?

      Reply
      • 4
        1

        ^^^^this.
        To me it’s largely about Nolan taking another step forward on a non-home field…Assuming the rest of the team does their jobs.

        Reply
  43. 3

    Same game plan as game 1, pressure the shit out of Haener and make him uncomfortable in the pocket and let our secondary eat.

    Waiting for one of our backs to break out. Thought it’d be Fenwick but I like Martinez as well. RB by committee is not all that bad to keep everyone fresh and prevent injuries.

    Both sides of the ball need to clean it up but I like the improvement and it’s refreshing to see in the first game of the season. We need to just sustain long drives and smash them with the run and continue to utilize the TE’s in the play action game. Also, more Colletto please. Utilizing him as a decoy in a 2 back set would be smart since he usually gets the ball when he comes in on O. Keep ‘em guessing.

    I don’t see their crowd being a factor or the heat. X-Factor is 9ers ability to make the correct in game decisions which includes fucking punting it when needed because our D is much improved. We will need our D to be sound tacklers in open space because their wideouts have tremendous speed. Their RB Rivers is fast as well and can run people over so as it always goes the game will be won at the line of scrimmage. Gotta penetrate and not let them get in open space.

    Limit turnovers and win TOP and I see us cruising. Most fans are apprehensive to be confident in this one given Haener and our history with playing them down there but Haener isn’t elite and series history means nothing either. We have been used to mediocrity so I get that it’s hard to be confident but I believe in the culture change that we are witnessing.

    Sticking with my preseason prediction of 31-20 Beavs.

    Reply
    • 2

      Plenty of good points there; I’d add that the O-line needs to, once again, keep the pressure off of Nolan.

      Up above Niceb mentioned the possibility of Fresno looking ahead to their game with USC next week. That is one mental factor for them, another is that they have likely read about the Beavs losing streak there in Fresno. These bulldogs may not be mentally prepared for a real slug fest. (x-factor here is Tedford, he’s a good/experienced guy).

      Still, it’s up the the Beavs to be mentally sound and show that week 1 to week 2 improvement. Be nice if we see the Nolan who showed up at SC last season.
      BEAVS by 9

      Reply
      • 1

        Look at the 1:55 mark on this highlight clip: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIK8G3ZDBPE

        The more I look at this play developing, I blame this interception 100% on Bradford. When he broke into his route, he immediately had eyes on Nolan and slowed down and stopped. Then when he realized Nolan didn’t throw on his first read, he then started to move to the corner edge of the end zone and lost his footing and got beat. Had this not been a play action out of this formation, Bradford would have gotten the ball sooner. Also, Bradford should have ran along the goaline instead of vertical to the sideline. I see the WR’s being more crisp on their routes this season.

        Reply

      • A lot of our coaching staff should have experience versus tedford for his days in the pac. That should help somewhat. One thing that worries me some is that Fresno lined up in some Really weird offensive formations. Hopefully they are well prepared for this and don’t have any miscommunication or blown assignments when facing them.

        Reply
  45. 1

    WEEK 2 PHIL STEELE REPORT:

    First meeting since 2003 when Oregon State allowed a FG with :31 left to lose 16-14 as an 8-point AF. Oregon State has lost 6 straight road openers (2-4 ATS). Oregon State is 12-5 ATS as an AD since 2018. Fresno State leads series 8-5 SU (6-4 ATS) and have won all 6 meetings in Fresno, but haven’t met since 2003. Last year as an 11-point AD Fresno State was up 23-10 at halftime at UCLA & scored the Game Winning TD with :14 left to pull the upset. They also almost upset Oregon giving up a late TD in a 7 point road loss. Jeff Tedford is back and has 15 returning starters including QB Jake Haener and is #26 on my Exp Chart. Oregon State is just 5-16 SU on the road under Smith and 0-4 as an AF but 12-5 ATS as an AD. Tedford is 40-29 as a HF but 5-9-1 ATS as a HD.

    FRESNO STATE 27 OREGON STATE 24

    POSITION BY POSITION EDGES

    WHEN OREGON STATE HAS THE BALL:
    Oregon State QB/WR’s vs Fresno State DB’s: FRST +0.38
    Oregon State RB’s vs Fresno State LB’s: ORST +0.03
    Oregon State OL vs Fresno State DL: ORST +1.21

    WHEN FRESNO STATE HAS THE BALL:
    Fresno State QB/WR’s vs Oregon State DB’s: FRST +0.86
    Fresno State RB’s vs Oregon State LB’s: ORST +0.65
    Fresno State OL vs Oregon State DL: FRST +0.53

    MISCELLANEOUS:
    Special Teams: ORST +1.72
    Kicking: FRST +0.50
    Coaching Staff: FRST +0.50

    POSITIONAL EDGE AWARDED TO: ORST +0.84

    PROJECTED BOX SCORE (ORST-FRST):
    Projected Rushing: 178-95
    Projected Passing: 225-329
    Projected Yardage Total: 404-423
    Projected Final Score: 28-25
    Experience Rankings: 22-26
    Team Schedule Strength: 38-122

    Las Vegas Line: Oregon State by 1
    Las Vegas Total: 61.5 Points
    +/- Ratings: Oregon State by 3.3
    Game Grade: Oregon State by 26.7
    Computer Yards: Fresno State 423-404
    Computer Points: Oregon State 28-25
    Spreadsheet Prediction: Fresno State by 2

    OTHER PAC-12 PREDICTIONS:
    Air Force 38 Colorado 20
    Wisconsin 35 Washington State 10
    California 30 UNLV 23
    USC 33 Stanford 30
    Oklahoma State 33 Arizona State 24
    Mississippi State 34 Arizona 24
    Utah 41 Southern Utah 6
    Washington 44 Portland State 13
    UCLA 52 Alabama State 3
    Oregon 48 Eastern Washington 24

    Reply

    • Has anyone kept track of Steele’s success rate?
      I don’t take a lot from him but did notice the wide margin in favor of the Beavs in both Special Teams and O-line.

      Reply

      • I don’t read Steele like I used to. I’ve found that he’s very good at coming up with excuses when he’s wrong on a prediction/opinion. It used to be a summer tradition to buy his magazine, but probably more than half the content is a repeat from the previous year.

        Reply
  47. 1

    If a team’s best improvement is between week 1 and week 2 than both teams should look better this week. That being said I look for the Beav o-line to assert themselves in a big way. Coach M was probably not happy with the overall effort and will demand more and I think Steel is way off in his prediction of rushing yards. More running lanes should offer up a better idea on which RB should get the bulk of the carries going forward. I see the beavs rolling for 250+ yds on the ground and Nolan playing a solid if not spectacular game with no stupid mistakes. The D looks tough, and I think they are going to be one of the top 3 in the conference. Beavs win big 41-17.

    Reply

  48. Off topic, but OSU related and want your opinion (risky I know). My mom ran track at Oregon State in the 70’s and was part of a national title relay that is getting inducted into the OSU Sport Hall of Fame later this year. My mom has always undersold the accomplishment because she blew out her hamstring and her alternate ran the final, but OSU considers her part of the relay team. She only told me about the induction in passing.

    Now to my dilemma, I told her I’d love to attend the induction, but she brushed it off as not a big deal and said just her and my dad would go. Thoughts? Should I respect my mom wishes or should I push her to let me attend. Is my mom right and this isn’t that big of a deal?, because I think it is awesome and want to be there to celebrate it with her.

    Reply
    • 1

      Haven’t watched, but looking at the stats, they are sticking with Hank Bachmeier and he has 0 INT this game and no fumbles. That bodes well for the Beavers’ defense. Appears BSU isn’t playing inspired ball on the road in the first half.

      New Mexico just missed a FG wide right to end the first half. Hard to tell, but it’s clear BSU is not the same team as last year. They keep playing this way and they won’t have a winning season or contend for the MWC Title.

      Reply

        • While UNM sucks, me thinks Boise’s problem is on the offensive side of the ball. They had only 370 yards of total offense. Against UNM they should have had a ton more.

          UNM had only 8 first downs, 123 yards of total offense and went 1 for 14 on third down. Was it suckage by UNM or did the Boise D have something to do with that?

          Reply
          • 1

            Offense is a hot mess for BSU for sure. Avalos is a defensive minded coach. UNM had a few long passes over the top of the BSU players(They certainly watched film of OSU’s offense last week). BSU defense had similar defensive plan against UNM that Oregon State had against BSU last week. I think BSU will be a defensive team first, then offensive. Their identity shifted from an Offensive minded unit to defense primary. Bachmeier also doesn’t show moxie or swagger, but their backup Taylen Green absolutely is their future. Bachmeier I believe has peaked and what you got tonight is his style of play. He seemed to start to get his confidence back in the second half though.

            Reply
          • 1

            Well they were supposed to be a defensive team and were like #19 in the nation last year. Offense was supposed to be improved but their Oline is still terrible.

            Reply
    • 6

      Man, imagine if McMaryion were the QB back at his time at Oregon State. Smart intelligent football mind right there. Thanks for finding this and sharing.

      Reply
    • 3

      Pretty diplomatic interview by McMaryion – he didn’t put down anyone that he could have, especially with that staff no longer being at OSU. Also, supportive remarks about the QB who transferred from FSU to UW.

      OSU had an intelligent QB who actually was attracted to the small town atmosphere of Corvallis, then they blew it by not playing him. I thought after the way he played in the CW victory (and ending a losing streak of at least several years) he deserved to come into the next season as the #1 QB.

      His summary of FSU’s bend-but-don’t break philosophy (“tighten up in the red zone, hold them to three and we’ll outscore them”) made me wish there was a question posed to him about Colletto, who’s certain to get red zone snaps. Colletto and Musgrave will need to deliver tonight. I hope Musgrave doesn’t disappear for long stretches again. Maybe Colletto will throw a pass tonight?

      Reply
  59. 4

    FYI- a streaming service called FUBO carries CBS Sports Network and offers a one-week free trial. That’s the way I’m going to go for tonight’s game.

    Reply
  63. 2

    http://angrybeavs.com/football/13298

    I thought everyone would enjoy seeing this post from when Gary Andersen left Oregon State, and in 2017 a lot of folks weren’t very high on Coach Smith taking over.

    Now we might take another step towards improvement and all I can say is thank God we’ve put 5 years between us and that show (of course we could have done without Covid-19, too!

    Reply
    • 2

      Smith was an obvious hire imo. If he failed, oh well, what did we have to lose at that point? But if he succeeded then there was a greater chance he would stay rather than bolting for a higher profile job.

      Reply
      • 1
        1

        You’ll have to wait a half hour when the thread goes live!

        I picked the cougs in the cbs pool. They can be pretty decent I think. They’re similar to the beavs. Rolo laid a good foundation.

        Reply
        • 2

          Same in the pool; didn’t have the guts to put money down. Bet MGM paid +650
          Cougs seem to have a decent D, agree?………gonna be another game where the Beavs O-line can be a difference maker (along with our DB’s). Get ’em in Corvallis Oct 15.

          Reply

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