With the bye it’s likely Nolan comes back for this game. Could be a distraction. I think Smith has to have the difficult talk with these guys. Big elephant in the room. I think the plan has to be start Gulbranson and have him on a short leash. I think that’s the plan for either QB. If Nolan starts, he has to be on a short leash, too. I’m in favor of Gulbranson. He’s got more upside and has been very good outside of some normal mistakes for a young QB. Shows a lot of promise.
If the Beavs were at home I’d like them in this game, but on the road it’s a toss up. I think Washington is overrated and not that great a team, but their QB will cause some problems, and the environment will cause some additional problems.
I’d take the Beavs 28-27.
Calling it, no way we lose next week
Watched the Colordao win highlights (just about 25 mins of highlights) this morning.
I thought the Beavers secondary got sloppy, and had that trend of playing down to the competition. Not sure how many backups were in there in the fourth though. I also think it will be important to watch the P-I calls against this unit. Playing @ UW, and certainly v. UO if UO is presumed to be a PAC championship-game contender, I think the calls are going to start going against this secondary. Also, even understanding he had a pick 6, isn’t there somebody better than Austin? He seems like a liability and doesn’t seem to be getting better. Secondary play and calls against them will be something to watch the back half of the season.
CU’s RFR QB didn’t look that bad, playing for an interim coach on a deflated team on the road…he threatened more than once and his receivers dropped very catchable passes. That bowling ball of a RB had a few nice runs.
Gulbranson involved in a TO, almost threw another pick. Also almost pulled a Nolan on throwing out of bounds and nearly getting picked. Fucking heave it into the bench. Nolan would be what, a month “cold?” I’d go with Gulbranson given UW has a bad D. Not sure what a short leash is for these two. Each tends to look good for 2 TOs per game. Ideally, Gulbranson goes 3.5 quarters in a victory, and Nolan gets some game reps to get back into the swing of things.
I wonder if Lowe will make it back for the UW game? With Damien “The Omen” Martinez and Jam, I think Fenwick should primarily the third option and let him go his 5 yards and run into tired defenders. I’m guessing Lowe will want to see the field if healthy, hope they find the practice reps to warm him up.
Nice to get bowl eligible. A good outcome of that is that bowls will start watching them now, and if they win 9 games they’ll get a good bowl opportunity.
Do bowls have any say in who plays their game? Thought it was pretty much only dictated by conference record, outside of the at large bids for New Years Bowl matchups? And seems like the Beavs are out of the running for those unless they manage to run the table to finish the season
The pass protection has got to improve or else Gulbranson’s arm strength ends up not being a big factor. Being able to run the ball is going to be huge against UW. I’m assuming the secondary will rise up to the level of competition because there was a lot of unfocused play in the second half. I liked the CU QB, never seemed frustrated, and threw some nice balls. He could have had 300 yards passing if his receivers could have caught the ball!
Also being bowl eligible, the Beavs have a potential 4-5 weeks of extra practice which is invaluable for development.
The future is very bright for the Beavs, hopefully we can hold on to all of our coaches. Teams will start looking at our coaches now that we’re winning.
Until they get picked for a crap bowl that is played three days after the conference championship game.
Well, I guess that’s the lone advantage of going to Hell Paso…….
Short answer is no, we don’t have anyone better than Austin at corner. It would be stupid to sit him.
Total agreement with Angry that BG should get the start with the caveat that he has a short leash in regard to his decision making. He’s clearly the more talented player and has won the job with his play, but the margin isn’t so great that he can’t be pulled if he starts throwing reckless picks. Nolan should stay ready, as there’s a decent chance he’ll get another opportunity if BG goes cold or gets injured. He’s not entitled to anything though after his brutal performances against USC and Utah.
But they both have questionable decision making. So if they both have short leashes, you could be pulling them in and out of game…What’s the threshold? Three bad decisions or three picks? Clearly 2 bad decisions/2 picks isn’t the threshold. With 4 picks v. USC, Smith said Nolan had people in his face on two of them, and was clearly forgiving of Nolan for those picks.
Giving them a short leash and changing them out isn’t going to result in better decision making. The likely benefit is like throwing a change up pitcher. Maybe Nolan comes in and gets hot and closes out, but the notion that he’s going to provide sustained, improved decision making isn’t supported by his play thus far.
Gulbranson is less experienced, and so his decision-making is likely more understandable. The hope is his ceiling is higher. He also throws a better pass. Nolan has shown that in league play he struggles. It seems like a wash, so you stick with Gulbranson who you’re winning with and who is gaining confidence. Angry suggested that the team seems more motivated with Gulbranson in there, curious if others see the same thing? If so, that’s an important intangible benefit.
Yeah it is admittedly a difficult call. That’s why they pay Smith the big bucks. To me you only pull BG if he starts to have that “deer in the headlights look” where is confidence is obviously gone. Nolan is so limited talent-wise that he should really only come in to stop the bleeding if necessary. And his last two performances indicate that he’s unable to even “game manage”. It’s similar to in basketball where a one dimensional shooting specialist loses his confidence and is unable to consistently knock down perimeter shots. At that point he becomes a “shooter that can’t shoot” and is a major liability to the team. Nolan has become a “manager that can’t manage” unfortunately.
I saw an interesting blurb from one of The Oregonian writers (I think Daschel). Paraphrasing, but he essentially said that whichever QB loses the starting job will transfer at the end of the season because both of them are P-12 caliber starters and are not going to sit behind one or the other next season.
I would be shocked if any other Pac 12 team wants Nolan as their starter. Makes sense that he would transfer if not starting for the Beavs though. More likely destination would be a place like San Jose State or Wyoming
Losing Gulbranson would sting. Higher ceiling and I beleive he wins the starting job next season. He also has 3 more years of eligibility and Nolan only has 1 more year.
Or Minnesota! Either would be a huge upgrade.
I am OK continuing being currently unranked and flying under the radar. Let the lack of respect be added motivation. Win out and we will likely be in the top 15 going into the bowl.
You have to be ranked at some point if you’re good
How good are they? Record wise 6-2 looks good. Barely beat Stanford and Fresno state. I hope they have 3-4 more wins but they could easily split the next four games.
Being ranked is fun but they haven’t beaten anyone noteworthy. I can see the arguments both ways.
Yet usc is ‘awesome’ having barely beaten an unranked nobody in oregon state? Every team every year from pop Warner to the NFL has teams with good records with stinker games and squeakers against lesser teams.
The beavs are 6-2. Thats an accomplishment and many teams can’t say the same.
Agree Orange Julius. I think rankings are pointless the first 5 or so weeks but the networks would never wait to use rankings until we actually know who is good. I don’t think anyone in the pac 12 is that solid. Oregon finally beat a quality conference opponent though so they have the edge. I doubt Utah goes to Eugene and wins but I’d love to be wrong.
I don’t watch a lot of college football beyond Oregon State University, but my mood is that the national polls aren’t as accurate an indicator as when they were originally set up decades back.
But this I mean the entire structure of “building a football program at the college level” has changed — from how players promote themselves, to how one recruit players, to how universities sign, extend or fire coaches and so on.
e.g. Head coaches directing programs for decades is not the norm. The idea of continuity within and through a program happens less.
My understanding at least from when I opened the newspaper to the Sports section and saw the top 25 occasionally was that the names really wouldn’t change that frequently? Their positions might, sometimes a lot, yes. But at the end of the season, those in the top half of the list was pretty close to where they should be despite not having a national championship bowl system.
Yeah, through no fault of their own, the Beavs’ schedule is extremely weak. In reality they are probably about the 20th best team, which their ranking should be close to when they finish 9-3. Win the CW and they’ll have a claim for top 15
Someone does like us.
https://www.tampabay.com/sports/gators/2022/10/23/ap-top-25-rankings-south-carolina-football-gamecocks-oregon-state-beavers-beavs/?outputType=amp
Somebody on the East coast actually paying attention! Good to see.
Martinez reacting to Ron Callan’s mention of pro QB’s buying dinner for the O-line: “…if I had that money I’d definitely do that for them.”
Good chance NIL will get him “that money” in the next couple years.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1584075456412012545
presser
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJwinxocVQ0
We’ve kept almost every QB we’ve faced to season lows. And they were QBs at Penix level. Bray has proved to win the chess matches against the opposing OCs. With a bye week to prepare, Beavs defense wins this one again. Beavs hold Penix to a season low, our offense manages to muster 3 TDs and 1 FG made and 1 missed. Gulbranson starts and Beavs win 24-20 in a hostile environment. I would have this 31-17 if played in Corvallis.
Penix leads the conference in passing yards, but UW also has a pretty weak SOS so far. They haven’t beaten anyone with a winning record.
Washington throws the ball a lot. I expect at least 2 interceptions for our defense.
I agree, the chances for a win go up with a week off. This team is tougher mentally than last year and will not let down. Bray has been excellent and I loved that shot of him on the sidline being pissed at Wright for that PI in the end zone. He has that fire I like a coach to have.
Don’t forget UW has a BYE this week too.
Toughest road test thus far? Definitely toughest for BG. I like how he popped up after taking the big hit that drew a roughing the passer flag on the Colorado. He seemed to welcome the pain a bit.
Utah > UW
Well, we saw how that went!
People still voting for the Hammer?
http://redirect.viglink.com/?key=71fe2139a887ad501313cd8cce3053c5&subId=6366834&u=https%3A//www.louisvillesports.org/paul-hornung/award-poll/
Readers here might remember that back in 2012 (or so) Riley rushed Mannion back vs. UW which cost us severely in that loss, our first that season.
Having been at the Colorado game and unable to comment here at the time, Gulbranson looked more than competent in the pocket showing some nice touch throwing downfield. Passes were on target, right over or out of reach of defenders. This team has momentum with Ben and if Smith goes back to Nolan now it would be a serious case of coaching malpractice
Not sure how long they’ve been using it, but Reser has a new to me Jackhammer sound effect they woulsd play any time Colletto would make a big play. I appreciated it, not sure how many people actually know that it’s a jackhammer though. My first thought was the speaker system was tripping out.
Might be good to have a jackhammer graphic on the board too
Had not noticed it at all.
I did notice a weird defense chant sound effect.
They played it twice on Saturday, probably not audible on tv, but pretty loud in Reser
I was in the stadium and I guess I heard that too. Sounded very odd and I could not tell it was a jack hammer. Like you, I thought it was a problem with the sound system.
The super late hot takes,
I don’t know that there is much to take away from the game. Colorado is bad. Really bad. Not sure Colorado made more than a handful of good plays. This was the definition of out atheleting an opponent.
The game went as planned. Got up early and the Beavs never let Colorado into the game.
Running game is getting better with each game. The blocking is what I see helping the most. There were a lot of runs where the running backs weren’t touched until 5 yards past the line. Makes it easy for the backs to gain a lot of yardage. Bodes really well for future games. Nice to see Newell in action. He looked like a legitimate back so the issues must all be between the ears.
BG great passes outnumbered his bad ones. I can only recall two really bad throws. One where he wasn’t on the same page as the WR and lucked out than the ball hit the ground and not picked. A better team picks that off. The other was a throwaway that didn’t quite reach the sidelines. Needs to just aim for the stands on those.
Defense overmatched Colorado. Just the one bad drive where they allowed the TD because of two PI calls. 2-11 on third down is what a good defense does.
I watched the UW Cal game after, the Beavs will essentially be playing Fresno St again.
Only real difference between Penix and Haener is that Penix is left handed. Both offenses throw the ball a lot. In PAC12 play, the lowest number of pass attempts by UW is 37. Both highly accurate and mobile enough to extend plays.
Who has the better defense? UW or Fresno?
uw, and or cal has a horrible o line. Cal had its chances to tie the game late, but coog’d it
It has been so long since i could even consider the Beaver defense to be competent let alone good. It’s hard to process.
No way Nolan should start. Had his chance, blew it. The backup has outperformed him, period.
BG is our future, stick with him the rest of the season.
You don’t pull a guy for winning
If your name is Gary Anderson you do!
Andersen
Its crazy to think not long ago we were on the wrong side of beat downs like that.
Positional comparison with UW by PFF grades:
QB- adv. UW
RB- adv. OSU
WR/TE- adv. UW (though you could easily argue if you adjust for SOS, it’s even or the Beavs could have the advantage)
OL- adv. OSU
DL- adv. UW (they have really good DE’s…we’ll see if Fuaga and Gray are for real)
LB- even
DB- adv. OSU (clearly UW’s weakest unit on either side)
Interesting matchups here as the relative strengths and weaknesses are matched up with each other. That being the case, as well as us leaning on BG to capitalize on their defensive weakness (secondary), Beavs being on the road…it all looked like a UW advantage to me. Then I looked more closely at UW’s SOS.
National ranking of UW opponents in passing yards allowed per game:
Kent St- #121
Michigan St- #106
Stanford- #77
UCLA- #95
ASU- #110
Arizona- #103
Cal- #111
OSU- #87
Compare to the OSU secondary’s SOS (opponent ranking in passing yards per game)
BSU- #119
Fresno- #76
USC- #21
Utah- #37
Stanford- #41
WSU- #22
Colorado- #113
UW- #1
Penix’s numbers (and his WR’s) have all been the product of playing really bad secondaries. I wouldn’t be shocked if Penix had the weakest SOS of any P5 QB so far. On the other hand, the OSU secondary has a much stronger claim to being For Real based on the competition they’ve faced.
The only other concerning matchup is UW’s pass rush vs. our OL and BG. How does he handle more pressure coming from 4-man rushses? Or do Fuaga and Gray shut the Husky DE’s down?
Looking at PFF grades, UW’s DE’s have a super weak SOS, as well. Fuaga and Gray are #1 and #3 in terms of quality of OT they have faced this year.
Regarding Penix, agree with the sentiment he’s played bad teams. We should use his talent ability (Indiana) to judge him, and he’s always dynamic but a bit erratic. If the Beavs contain him in the run game they should be able to shut down his passing game. He needs one to set up the other from what I remember at Indiana. Haven’t watched him much at Washington, but what I saw was basically the same guy. He did seem a bit more accurate passing than when at Indiana.
Also a really random stat: Beavs are ranked #14 in the country in yards per completion (and #28 in yards per attempt), not too far behind Ohio State and Tennessee.
UW has a weak schedule this year…Michigan state was only big opponent in preseason. They don’t play USC or Utah this year which is crazy lucky but their early season schedule was also super easy…Kent state and Portland state. Pac 12 schedule to this point has been UCLA, both Zona schools, Cal and Stanford. Despite the offense they’ve shown with Penix, I think this is a game the Beavs should win. What’s not in their favor? Well, the struggles on the road for this Beavs team. Been a huge problem for the Beavs under JS, UW is a tough travel environment and still have good recruits and talent despite the coaching transition.
Beavs are good enough to win by a few scores but I have a feeling this is going to come down to the last possession. Either a big defensive stand to hang on, or a late 4th quarter drive to score. I’m hoping this doesn’t come down to a fg. I think 35yds and under with the ball in the middle of the field the Beavs are ok, but anything in that 40+ range is almost a guaranteed miss. Unless there are only a few seconds on the clock, I could see the Beavs going for it on a 4th and 2 or 3 if the alternative is a 40+ yard fg.
Hayes is 2-5 on the year and 0-3 from 40 and beyond. Sappington is 5-7 and 1-2 from 40 and beyond (his season long is 40yds). A 20% success rate beyond 40yds is pretty awful and really means we shouldn’t be trying anything over 40yds much less as a late game option if there is reasonable time left to try to and move the ball closer.
Yeah I feel like the Beavs have the better team and program right now. Washington might have the better QB just due to experience (Gulbranson is probably ultimately better). That coupled with Washington at home makes it tough and probably a very close game. But I’m going with the better program winning and the magical season staying intact.
This is more of a step forward type of season vs magical. A very solid step forward. Beavs have beat the teams they were favored against and lost to the ones they were underdogs. Fresno was a pickem game.
Beavs haven’t won at UW since 2008. That was the Ty Willingham era for UW when he went 0-12.
“Been a huge problem for the Beavs under JS, UW is a tough travel environment and still have good recruits and talent despite the coaching transition.”
Smith knows the UW game environment well. It may be as tough or tougher for this Beavers team than Utah. Just the scale of stadium and crowd is likely markedly different than what they’ve experienced this season and could be distracting. Smith has an extra week to prepare them for what to expect and has an insider’s perspective.
Yeah that’s a good point on the insider’s perspective. Some of these older players have played in that environment, too, and can mentor the younger guys. It’ll be tough, but I like our chances. I think Smith has to keep the QB situation fluid and if one guy struggles go with the backup. I’m assuming Nolan will be healthy in 2 weeks when I say that…
This is the psychological side he should be addressing. He coached there 4(?) years and was OC when they went to playoffs…I think UW probably has the most NFL-like stadium setting and crowd size in the PAC. Neither UCLA or USC seem to fill a large stadium with a raucous crowd…
Yeah I think Oregon and Washington have the toughest crowds in the Pac.
Any advantage to playing on a Friday? Maybe fewer fans able to get to the game as it starts?
There are some advantages for the Beavs playing on a Friday night. It won’t be anywhere near a sellout.
7:30 is just not a good start time for Friday night games. Game is probably going to end around 11pm.
UW has only had one game where they got a near full house and that was vs MSU due to them being ranked
Less time to tailgate so the crowd won’t be as beered up
Friday nights are harder to travel for for people who live further away
If the weather is cold and rainy, it’ll be an easy decision for people to stay home and watch. especially students.
Ticket prices are pretty cheap on stubhub, I checked the UW ticket site, lots of tickets available. Hopefully lots of Beavs fans travel.
All that said, Husky Stadium is still a tough and loud place to play even without a sellout.
Scenario for the Beavs to make the PAC Championship
Beavs win out
USC wins out
Nike loses to UW and OSU (Beavs have the tiebreaker)
Utah loses to WSU and Nike
UCLA loses to USC (Beavs have tiebreaker of win over Nike, our top ranked common opponent)
Sets up a rematch of OSU-USC in the championship game. I can’t see a more plausible scenario (as unlikely as this all is).
I will correct this one for you.
Scenario for the Beavs to make the PAC Championship
Beavs win out
USC wins out
ucks loses to UW and OSU
Utah loses to WSU and ucks
UCLA loses to USC
Conference records:
Beavs 7-2
USC 7-2
ucks 7-2
UCLA 7-2
Utah 6-3
Head to head matchups:
USC goes to CCG with tie breaker over OSU and UCLA and higher ranking than ucks.
Beavs has head to head tie breaker over ucks. So then it comes down to who is ranked higher between Beavs and UCLA since they didn’t play each other in the regular season.
4 Most likely scenarios for CCG:
Ucks(8-1 or 9-0) vs USC(8-1)
USC(7-2) vs UCLA(8-1)
UCLA(8-1) vs Ucks(9-0 or 8-1)
UCLA(8-1) vs Utah(7-2)
USC only has one conference loss in that scenario. We need USC out of the tiebreaker because they beat us. The key is setting up a tiebreaker with either someone we beat (Nike) or someone with favorable common opponents (UCLA).
You’re right, UCLA would be 8-1 and it would be USC vs Oregon unless Beavs and Utah beat Oregon. or UW and Utah beat Oregon. Then it would be Utah vs UCLA since Utah would have head to head over Oregon State, USC, and Oregon.
Otherwise, if UCLA loses, it would be USC going 8-1 and we would need help to get ranked higher than UCLA.
USC and UCLA will not lose another conference game until they meet. Their final conference schedule is the softest the rest of the way.
Not trying to throw water on your birthday cake or anything but you fellas are getting way ahead of yourselves.
Interesting looking at the PFF advanced stats comparing ’21 Nolan, ’22 Nolan, and ’22 Gulbranson.
’22 Gulbranson and ’21 Nolan are very similar in terms of accuracy and “turnover worthy plays,” except two key differences: BG is more accurate downfield, but makes more mistakes under pressure. ’22 Nolan is superior as a downfield passer to either, but makes the most mistakes on other passes. BG is kind of the middle ground between Game Manager Chance and Gunslinger Chance.
Receivers have dropped 12 Nolan passes this year vs. 4 BG passes (in roughly the same number of attempts). There’s a strong multi-year trend in Beaver receivers dropping Nolan passes (~15% of his accurate passes are dropped). BG hasn’t seen the same percentage so far, which lends some support to the idea receivers having a hard time catching Nolan’s passes.
If you look at their ’22 stats, they are very similar minus the interceptions.
Nolan: 66-111 (59.5%). 939 yds. 8.5 avg. 7 td. 8 int. 2 sacks. Qbr: 136
Gulbranson: 61-99 (61.6%). 818 yds. 8.3 avg. 5 td 3 int. 6 sacks. Qbr: 141
Also, 4 of those tds for Chance were vs Montana State. I feel pretty confident that BG would’ve been able to toss a few that game as well but after 3.5 games and 4.5 games, very similar. I would also note, that BG has 1 int in his 3 starts. I see a lot of people on social media wanting Chance back as the starter which I feel is odd. Looking at this season so far, and knowing what a Chance did last year, particularly once the Pac12 schedule started, I’m having trouble understanding why. BG has won 3 games and has protected the ball much better than Chance. I’d also argue that outside of USC, the level of competition has been fairly similar. Fresno State isn’t a great team. Boise State has beaten 1, maybe 2, teams with 4+ wins and while Montana State is a great team at their level, they’re not nearly in the same league as a p12 school. Yes, Colorado is not good at all. Stanford isn’t great but it was a road game and they have since won 2 straight so not totally trash but not good. WSU is a good team.
I asked this in the prior thread, but what is it about Chance that people are wanting to bench the guy who’s just won 3 straight? What is it I’m missing here? His td/int ratio was been pretty bad last year but yet was trending worse this year with 8tds (7 passing 1 rushing) and 8 turnovers. I feel like people are thinking he’s always the qb that went to USC and won, when in reality, that’s more of the outlier performance when it comes to the pac12 schedule. He’s been great at moments in conference play, and he’s been really good vs the preseason lower level competition but for the majority of conference play he’s been avg AT BEST. I hear the argument that he’s more mobile. That’s definitely true but how often are we running designed QB runs in a game? His mobility equals 15 rushing yds per game and clearly doesn’t cut down on interceptions. All that said, BG is 3-0….had he gone 1-2 then yeah, let’s get back to Chance and hope that resting for a month cures the tunrover ratio issue but otherwise I’m sticking with BG.
I would say that BG has played a lot worse than the stats suggest. He’s thrown a lot of absolutely terrible passes that should have been picked but weren’t (including the miracle winning play to Harrison that got the W at Stanford). He might have thrown 1 pick in 3 starts but I feel like it could easily have been 6.
I’m not sold on Nolan either…he absolutely cost us that USC win when every other player (& the coaches) were balling out of their minds. But I don’t know…BG makes me nervous and I feel like he’s gotten pretty lucky so far. I’d let the tie go to experience.
He’s absolutely been lucky with quite a few passes so far. What scares me is Gulbranson stares down his receivers and struggles a bit under pressure. He’s also taken a lot of sacks and has poor pocket presence.
Washington has a very good pass rush and is averaging 3 sacks a game. Gulbranson got sacked 4 times against stanford who has a terrible pass rush. Washington is also pretty good against the run only allowing 3.9 yds a carry. Those 2 things will make this a tough game for Gulbranson couple that with a tough environment that could really make him struggle. They’ll need the running game to above average and the defense to really step up because I don’t think Gulbranson is the QB that can really light ir up at this point in his career. Washington also has been really good at home I believe they are undefeated.
I’m not sold on either and its really disappointing because this team would be so much better with solid QB play. Sometimes sitting on the sidelines can really help a player see the game a different way. Hopefully that’s the case with Nolan. I think Nolan is better suited for this matchup because of his mobility but I’m not saying he’s better just better suited for this game.
As far as chance running goes its more about not taking sacks and extending the play. He can also get you that 3rd and 8 scrambling. He doesn’t need designed runs. It just puts more strain on the defense.
UW is undefeated at home and it is a tough environment which I did bring up. I also acknowledged that they may have a good defense but I’m not sold on them being legitimately good or is it a benefit of their schedule. They’ve played Kent State, Portland State, Arizona, Stanford and Michigan State at home this season. Kent state has won 3 games. PSU has won 2 games. In fact, the only team they’ve played so far this year with more than 3 wins is UCLA. They did go ham on the sacks vs Cal, Zona and Stanford. 18 sacks vs those 3 opponents and 5 vs PSU. My personal take is that they are a solid defense because they will have good recruits but I think results are inflated due to the schedule. 7 of the teams they’ve played have 3 or less wins…been a pretty easy road to this point. Unfortunately for the Beavs, pass pro has been an issue for them this year so that’s definitely a concern regardless.
Appreciate the different point of view though. If Chance does get the start, do you pull him at some point or just ride or die the rest of the game or year? If he tosses 2 picks in the 1st half vs UW do you go to BG? His decision making is bad and he’s prone to turning the ball over. 18 picks during 21-22 seasons and he’s also lost several fumbles.
Guess my take is that every qb has some passes that could be picks that don’t end up being picks. If we think Chance hasn’t had some fortunate drops or penalties that have resulted in an interception being overturned, then I’ve also got ocean front property in AZ I’ll sell you for cheap. However, I do agree that BG isn’t balling out of his mind and let’s remember that he has started 3 games and is literally getting the same positive stats that Chance has after 1.5 years as a starter.
Here’s the other thing, Chance has thrown 8 picks. Lol. Not 4 picks with a few that could’ve been..but 8 real and legit picks. The other part of that story is how many of those have turned into points. All of USC points were a result of his INTs if I’m not mistaken. Guess I’m just not married to Chance and his results. Maybe that’s a personal flaw of mine and I’m missing the obvious reason here why Chance is the absolute choice for benching a guy who has went 3-0.
There are lots of other things that maybe factor into this difference– if a target feels they can get the pass, they’ll tend to make more effort to go for it!
2021 vs 2022 OSU RB yards after contact per attempt:
2021
Baylor- 3.5
Fenwick- 3.2
2022
Martinez- 3.7
Griffin- 3.6
Fenwick- 2.7
Martinez is the best in this area since 2016 Ryan Nall.
Not going to be a popular opinion around here, but I am not going to be opposed to Nolan getting the start. I’ve mentioned this before but I see a noticeable difference in the play calling with BG. They don’t throw downfield nearly as much as they were with Nolan. It’s a blessing in disguise, because I think it’s forced us to run the ball a lot more and get the tight ends involved in the short passing game.
My question is, what has BG done that Nolan can’t do? He’s made some great throws here and there, but has there really been what “wow” factor? He’s thrown interceptions and he’s been lucky that a few weren’t picked. Could have had 2 in the Colorado game.
Smith has made it clear in the postgame Utah presser that there wasn’t a QB competition. I’d be surprised if he goes back on that statement now. This is not synonymous with last year’s situation where Nolan came in and was obviously much better than Noyer. BG has been fine, but hasn’t elevated the team any. He’s done his job.
Washington leads the conference with 25 sacks. The mobility of Nolan is a must. Designed runs, ability to run out of rollouts, you need that to beat speed up front.
Nolan had a rough showing against the two best teams we’ve played so far. Remember that BG didn’t exactly look great against Utah either, albeit off the bench. I think the coaching staff has learned more about this offense since Nolan has gone out though. We’ve established a solidified RB pecking order. The backup TEs have gotten more comfortable. I’d give him a short leash, but I want Nolan to get another shot. You’d wonder if that would do anything to morale, but then again, it’s not like BG has elevated or drastically changed this offense’s ceiling, in my opinion.
I agree, well said.
Ya I mentioned above that basically Nolan isn’t necessarily better but against the pass rush he’s probably better suited to match up against it.
I don’t have a huge problem with him starting so long as first mistake, and he’s out of the game. I do have a small problem with him starting in the sense that Gulbranson has way more upside and is clearly the future, and you risk him transferring by playing an inferior player. Gulbranson might also give the team the best shot to win just due to the energy the play with when he’s in the game.
It seems that a few things happen within the offense that are specific to BG that tip the scales his way for me. Less drops by receivers, better blocking for run game, fewer penalties it seems, and 3 wins.
BG looks good throwing on the move in rollouts, better than Nolan to me.
BG will take a sack rather than a short arm toss to the sideline that goes for a pick-6.
BG throws a spiral on nearly every pass.
BG according to JS, recognized the change in coverage for the Veiling TD.
BG knows he is t going to scramble forever and doesn’t attempt it.
I like what Nolan has contributed and it was a good step for the program, but he has obviously peaked and will not improve much more. If they are even, let BG continue to start and allow him the growth/experience that comes with it.
It seems certain Nolan would not win the next 5 games, because he and the team become dramatically inconsistent when he is at qb.
However, BG might win the next 5 games and improve dramatically while doing it.
It almost seems like the same logic of be careful not to lose what you have (Riley/Nolan) because you may not get anything better (Smith/BG) parallel. I’d have the thought conversation early in the week, give the team time to digest it and reassure Nolan he will be the best backup in the conference with a role still in specific situations. And if he transfers, not likely, wish him well and thank him for the effort.
I’ll also say that even if BG is just a game manager, he can at least make all of the throws once the playbook opens up, which we know Nolan can’t do.
I disagree with a lot of what you’re saying here there is just way too much speculation. I don’t think you can say that the run blocking is better with Gulbranson in. I would say it is gelling better as the season has gone on. How would the QB affect run blocking? Not to mention he fumbled a handoff. Nolan has proven he can make all of the throws so IDK what thats about. Nolan short armed 1 throw away in the first game and has learned from it and it. It seems certain that he wouldn’t win the next 5 games? How does that seem certain? The receivers dropping less balls? That was trending that way already as the season progressed. Harrison and Gould especially were cleaning that up. Fewer penalties is also a product of the season going on as is most of these things. Its like Smith always says they want to be playing their best ball at the end of the year. If they were running the ball this well it probably would’ve made Nolan look much better too.
You’re reasoning just seems based on the team progressing as the season goes on. Most things don’t connect to the QB.
Yeah Nolan can make all the throws to the opposite team.
I think another factor is not just what he’s done so far, but how does he look in practice?
He gets to face probably the best secondary in the PAC everyday. The pass rush may(?) not be so great, but hopefully it tests him.
I have to think they’ll continue to evaluate his response during live action. A neck/concussion injury is not minor, particularly given how long he’s been held out. If it makes him tentative, affects his decision-making, then it seems like its in his and the team’s best interest to start Gulbranson.
You don’t want him risking further injury to his neck/brain.
Yeah I wouldn’t mess around with a neck/spinal thing, or my melon. Remember Skotte a few years back and his lingering neck issue? Finally had to hang it up.
The point I’ve been making, and it seems like you’re alluding to here, is that they are very similar in a lot of aspects. So to your question, what does BG offer that Nolan doesn’t? The biggest difference I’ve seen is the turnovers. I posted their stats this season earlier in the thread. The major difference is 8 interceptions vs 3 interceptions. The argument that BG has gotten lucky doesn’t hold water because every qb gets lucky and has a defender drop an easy pick or a defensive penalty saves the day. Chance has certainly benefited from a drop here and there just as much as BG has. People also overlook that Chance has had problems with ball security his entire career as a starter, particularly when we get to league play. He went through an incredibly rough patch vs USC and Utah but his ball security last year and this year vs league opponents has been not good.
2021 conference play: 17 total tds and 11 total turnovers (9 picks, 2 lost fumbles). Not great.
2022 he’s tallied 8 total tds and 8 turnovers. 4 of those tds came vs Montana State. So looking at FBS teams, he’s thrown 4 tds and 8 int.
Does the mobility he brings outweigh the turnovers?
I think its funny how everyone was getting mad at Lindgren for passing too much and not running enough. Before the Colorado game they had the 2nd most run plays and 2nd least pass plays in the conference. I do get though that it’s the situation that they pass the ball is more questionable. I think they also run the ball most in the conference inside the red zone as well.
I think a lot of the frustration was WHEN he was calling a passing play. Not how much he was calling it. And for me personally I think some of that has to do with some of the mediocre play from Nolan.
Yes, it’s the situation or timing of pass plays which is more questionable. Definitely based on the last couple games we need to be run heavy first and foremost. Colletto helping spring Martinez, Griffin, Fenwick is nearly guaranteed 5 yards.. heck with Colletto leading the way my 84 year old mother could get 5 yards.
We don’t run enough vs we don’t run enough compared to other teams in the conference are two different complaints.
Nolan will not start another game this year.
Thanks coach Smith. What if BG gets hurt smart 1?
For anyone that was curious, the third QB dressed for the game was Throckmorton. Didn’t see him throw any, only Gebbia threw between series with GB.
Nolan is likely done for the year.
Neither QB is a fantastic option right now, but it doesn’t make sense to change in the middle of a winning streak. I’m with angry: have a short leash with either and don’t let stubborn commitment to the “starter” decision lose the game for you.
Run the ball well and it’s almost a moot point.
Yes. Pound the ball no matter who starts though I would prefer BG. There are 2 dynamic backs available. Guys that can take it to the house from anywhere. They hit the hole fast which more than anything has been the biggest change from Fenwick. In this zone blocking sceme that is run that is the key. The o-line is coming into its own. Lets have a 4-1 run/ pass ratio and beat the huskies down.
Hey BeaverGopher, read there were crowd management issues at Beaver Stadium, you experience any of the problems?
RE PAC attendance, Stanford was near empty this past weekend, contributing to the PAC’s poor attendance image (UCLA, USC too).
“Finished” Reser may only hold 36-39K next year, but it should be pretty full for league games and fairly loud.
Austin named Pac-12 DPOW and Martinez FOW.
First time since the award started in 83 that OSU has had 3 DPOW in a season.
https://pac-12.com/article/2022/10/24/pac-12-performance-awards-presented-nextiva-football-week-8
We talk a lot on this site about what “makes the most sense” to us. But I think we’re over looking how the coaches are thinking. They chose Nolan as the starter over Gulbranson this year. Why? We want to think it’s because he gives the team the best chance to win. That surely plays some role in their decision, but we’ve also seen these coaches influenced by emotion and loyalty. Now let’s go back to the reason Gulbranson became the starter. It was because Nolan was injured. They didn’t just bench Nolan because he was sucking, although his injury did coincide with him sucking at the time. But based on the fact Nolan was chosen as the starter and started every game until he got injured, I’m pretty sure they’re going to start Nolan against UW, unless he’s just not fully recovered.
There’s not a lot separating the two. I think the coaches were giving Nolan a long leash because the issues he was having were regression in an area he was good at last year (protecting the ball), so they assumed it was anomalous. That was the #1 reason they gave for starting him, but BG has fewer INT’s, so expect them to stick with BG until he starts turning it over.
He wasn’t good at protecting the ball last year though. This season isn’t an anomaly, particularly when you get to league play. He had 17td and 11 turnovers in pac12 play. 0 td and 1 pick in the bowl game. Below a 2:1 ratio isn’t ball security. He’s been really good vs the losser opponents in preseason but once league play starts he’s been avg AT best.
I think they gave Nolan the starting role because of his greater experience and the 2021 upside games (@ USC, v. Utah), but Smith was clear that Nolan needed to get better and the downfield pass and they emphasized it in the off-season. Gulbranson throws better downfield.
Nearly every team in every sport has a case where the coaching choice for starter ended up being replaced due to injury, and the replacement held the starting job. I’m not saying Gulbranson will necessarily supplant Nolan for the rest of the season, but if he does, it certainly won’t be an unusual outcome.
If either player could learn to either wrap up the ball securely and take the sack or throw it completely out of bounds or throw it away in a way that makes it un-catchable, the Beavers would likely be 6-1. They’d have fewer TOs, and win more field possession exchanges. Make them watch Russel Wilson film from college; he was very good at avoiding negative plays if nothing was there.
A nice threat Nolan brings is the quick kick. The guy has executed that to near perfection more than once.
The back half of the season is going to be entertaining. Hopefully its enjoyable and not just nerve wracking and frustrating.
Isn’t Aiden Chiles supposed to show up in January? The future looks promising, just wish they could put it all together. But doesn’t about any team and fanbase from #21 – #40 wish that?
I wouldn’t say Gulbranson throws a better deep ball. He hasn’t completed many and lots of times he’s thrown it too far out of bounds so that the receiver doesn’t have a chance. The 1 throw to Harrison that was picked off was just horrible.
I remember @ USC last year, Nolan dropped some right in the basket, even with pressure in his face. He hasn’t seemed to be able to do that consistently though.
I thought against CU, Gulbranson threw passes with flatter trajectories and a much better spiral. He put some where the receiver had the best chance, but I also thought they were a bit high and risked making the receivers very vulnerable. I think he throws out of bounds to play it on the safe side, though it could just be an accuracy issue.
I imagine next week if Nolan is healthy the two will split reps to prep for UW, and Smith won’t announce a starter early.
There is no way that Nolan starts over BG vs UW. BG will get all the first team reps in practice. Nolan only plays if BG gets hurt or craps the bed. I think the debate is silly talk. It’s now BGs job to lose. If Nolan was playing well when he got hurt I could see him coming back as the starter but he wasn’t and BG is 3-0 as a starter. No way JS is that stupid
Gulbranson has a stronger arm so he has the potential to throw a better deep ball. As of right now, Nolan’s is much more accurate, even if it is wobbly.
Alex Austin and Damien “The Omen” Martinez get PAC player-of-the-week recognition:
https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2022/10/oregon-states-damien-martinez-alex-austin-earn-pac-12-player-of-the-week-honors.html
Anyone know if the WRs have fewer drops under Gulbranson? Seems so just from observation, but I’m not sure if that’s accurate. I always wondered if Nolan/Gebbia’s wobbly balls (haha) were the reason for all the drops. It’s reason alone to move forward and never look back if true.
Yes I saw someone broke it down and is was like 3 times more drops per pass with Nolan.
I listed the stats from PFF up above. Nolan has thrown 3x the drops BG has this season. That’s actually an improvement over Nolan’s drop % from last season!
One confounding variable could be how close passes are getting to receivers, though. It might be at least partially a function of Nolan’s “misses” being semi-catchable, while BG’s are more off the mark.
More exciting drop-related stats!
Nolan is 3rd among P5 QB’s in drop % (behind only Shrout from Colorado and UVA’s QB).
Last season he wasn’t quite as bad, but still in the bottom quartile of starting QB’s. That said, there’s not any correlation between drop% and PFF passer rating.
The question is are our WR’s getting better as the season goes forward. In looking at Chance’s throws this year they did not look bad to me as far as the wobbles go. I’d still start BG for other reasons already stated.
I think its more of a product of the receivers cleaning it up than one QB or the other. Plenty of both QBs drops have been accurate and fine spirals. Harrison especially was just trying to run before he had the ball not to mention Nolan’s perfect ball in the bread basket that he dropped.
The Oregonian/OregonLive’s Nick Daschel podcast with former Beaver cornerback Kyle White and receiver Timmy Hernandez is entertaining. Go to 00:15:00 and listen to them talk about the QB’s and who should start going forward. All three in the podcast have the same feeling as us here in that it is kind of a coin flip type of thing. But both former players leaned towards BG because of enhancing his future with play time.
Here is the link: https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2022/10/oregon-state-and-its-future-at-quarterback-this-season-beaver-banter-podcast.html
Kyle white is just painful to listen to and doesn’t seem to know what he’s talking about.
He’s a GA player. Never played for Niner. So ya, makes sense why he’s painful to listen to as well as Nick Daschel. I gave up on his reporting as he is a Debbie Downer and seems to not be excited to cover the Beavs. At least fake being happy you’re covering the team you agreed to cover. lol
Too bad for Chance that he didnt sit out all of Utah. Could have called this season a medical redshirt year. Maybe adding the extra bowl game to the schedule helps keep that ratio needed for redshirting alive? I have no idea
Bleah. Ducks getting mention as possible playoff contenders :
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2022/10/25/college-football-bowl-projections-oregon-joins-playoff-conversation/10593890002/
Last season, their win over Ohio State buoyed them in (over) rankings the rest of season. Interesting a season opening beatdown from Georgia doesn’t equally sink them.
If they are a playoff hopeful come CW, unlikely OSU gets fair treatment from referees as the PAC is desperate to look playoff relevant.
On the bright side, if they’re in the CFP picture and we’re ranked, Corvallis looks like a slam dunk to host Gameday compared to the other games that day.
Except for Michigan/Ohio State both being undefeated and playing on the same day…
My guess is they would promote an ESPN game over a Fox game, but maybe not.
Ducks game this weekend was on fox but game day still went. They look to be the best team right now in the conference. I don’t see Utah beating them at home. I also don’t see usc being smart enough to beat them in the conference championship if that’s the matchup. Which team has a d line to stop the run and/or get pressure on nix? We have a good pass defense but hard to stop good receivers when the qb has all day. I’d love to be wrong.
CFB News ranking BEAVS at #20.
Back to the Nolan question. His worst games were without Musgrave. Perhaps his game prep going into the year had been predicated on effective TE routes/dump routes.
I would have thought Nolan would be settled down in the pocket by now, but he still has happy feet and doesn’t ever look real comfortable, which creates an uneasiness about each play. Like he is nervous/rushing through the reads and trying to catch up to what he sees, then throws late into double coverage. Maybe it was the correct read and route but nothing looks settled and sure about his game.
Last year’s USC game is such an outlier it skews the rest of his results. That game showed such promise but seems to be far above his ability to perform on a regular basis.
Anyone know any more about the possibility of Amazon cutting a deal with the Pac 12?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.oregonlive.com/collegefootball/2022/10/pac-12-survival-all-signs-continue-to-indicate-a-broadcast-partnership-with-amazon-could-materialize.html%3foutputType=amp
Thanks, but I’m looking for sources other than Olive.
New deal will require you to purchase Prime and have 12 active subscribe and save orders in rotation to unlock Pac12 games.
You can only watch if you ask Alexa first
“Alexa! Show me your Beavers!”
“Showing Beavers. Expect great secondary play and running, and questionable quarterback play.”
Gosh, thanks for the clarity. I think I’ve got it now NB
it is a repost from wilner
Here it is w/o paywall:
https://www.ksl.com/article/50502528/pac-12-survival-all-signs-indicate-broadcast-partnership-with-amazon-could-materialize
Thanks much oob
Not that far removed from major bowl games, Stanford’s desperation for live fans grows…
https://www.deseret.com/2022/10/24/23422171/stanford-football-free-tickets-trial-byu-game?_amp=true
JTFC. No mention of the fact Lanning KNEW Georgia inside and out, or Oregon’s “elite talent,” or Nix’s familiarity with the SEC?
Bagging on Montana State when the SEC schedules early AND late creampuffs?
Lots of rationalization here.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-wolken/2022/10/24/oregons-lopsided-loss-georgia-one-college-footballs-hottest-teams-but-lopsided-loss-georgia-remains/10590235002/
FTD.
“Not only were the Ducks up against it in terms of opponent and venue, it was the first game for 36-year old Dan Lanning, Oregon’s third head coach in the past six seasons. That isn’t an excuse, but it has to be a factor in how Oregon’s total season is viewed.”
Ummm. What? That’s not an excuse, but then the writer contradicts themselves in the very same sentence?
More smoke and mirrors from the hype machine.
No mention anywhere in that article about UGA’s losses to the NFL draft. Quite a few of their players were playing their first meaningful snaps in college football.
Would they be using that as an excuse or let anyone make that excuse for them had Oregon won? Because I seriously fucking doubt it.
A title contender doesn’t get blown out by 40+ points. In any game. At any point in the season.
Name me one time a team got blown out by that much and still made the CFP. Go ahead. I’ll wait.
Lastly, Dan Wolken is a dipshit who isn’t very well respected in sports journalism.
Go look at his Twitter feed if you need an idea of how much of a clown this guy is.
“(Oregon) gutted out a tough win over Washington State.”
I guess the beavs too should be considered for the cfp based on this logic
A tough win where they gave up 40+ points….something they hadn’t done in ….3 weeks.
What’s everyone’s take on who will be wary departures after this season (transfer, retire, nfl draft)?
Seems like Musgrave is likely to enter the draft?
Big question marks on Gray and Speights?
Also a lot of players graduating with lots of eligibility left…Any you think might hang up the cleats?
*Early
https://osubeavers.com/sports/football/roster
WR Harrison & Lindsey will be gone, DL Anderson & Sandberg, LB Fisher-Morris, Elder QB Gebbia moves to Shady Oaks Retirement Home, S Jaydon Grant, Punter Luke “The Leg” Loecher gone…
Masceranas and Lolohea should return, hope Chatfield does too(?). Some more heft coming to the DL from existing roster.
Julian should return given his missed time due to injury…Wright will surely be gone, not sure who replaces him? Cooper Jr will be back…Oladapo should return. Safeties will be play makers.
Damn, there’s a lot of youth on the roster with maybe one of the better recruiting class in years coming in 2023.
Next season, it seems likely the secondary and a stable of RBs will again lead a team with a relatively young QB (Gulbranson?).
Bow your head. Colletto will be out of eligibility…hope he goes out with a CW victory.
The offense should look very similar to this year. (hopefully better with another year of experience). Kipper and a few WR’s gone, but we have good depth behind them.
Secondary is the biggest question mark to me. Losing Grant and Wright will hurt and we haven’t brought in any higher rated recruits there. Seems like that’s one position where guys always come out of nowhere, though.
I’m excited to see some of the bigger names from last year’s class start to contribute like Jordan, MMD, Wright, and all the OL’s.
Unfortunately, it seems like the QB question will be the biggest one hanging over the team next year. We need someone to step up and take the reins there. I think Chiles is a great prospect with an exciting skill set, but on film when his primary receiver isn’t open he just runs. He has great vision and balance as a runner, so it makes perfect sense at the HS level, but if we’ve learned anything from watching QB’s develop here, it takes time to get comfortable making reads and decisions in the pocket. Seems like we should be looking for a transfer QB to bolster the QB room if the coaches aren’t sold on any of the guys we have now.
Beavs picked DFL in the pre-season Pac12 rankings. If I hear Tinkle use “we’re a young team” I think I might puke. It will be interesting to see if the new assistants have an impact. I still can’t believe last year happened. A bigger shock than the NCAA run.
Anyone who has high expectations while Tinkle is still the coach is going to be disappointed. Here is what to expect:
Sweaty armpits
Yelling daughters on the sideline
Weird substitution patterns
No actual point guard for the 8th year in a row
No offensive flow
75% of possessions that will end in a one on one play 6’ beyond the 3 pt line and an off balance shot by a non shooter
Press conferences with Tinkle complaining about team chemistry and player needing to commit to the plan
Enough wins to keep Tinkle around for another year but no true success
Lazy press defending Tinkle, appealing to his 2 NCAA appearances as proof that he can coach ‘‘em up
You forgot – although it might go under “no offensive flow” – calling time out after a good (or really good) play.
Correction/Addition:
Momentum killing timeouts after scoring a basket off a turnover…
Thanks for the edit Helmsley
they have 7 freshman on the team. thats literally half the team. So yes the are a young team
My new favorite player is Donovan Grant: https://osubeavers.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/donovan-grant/9403
He enjoys writing poetry and plays the cello.
Yes, they’re young. But that’s like giving a kid a pass on killing his parents because he’s an orphan. You can’t screw up a team in you sixth year or whatever and blame an inexperience roster. Who manages the roster? The Coach. It’s not like he inherited a mess at this point in his tenure. He oversaw the mess.
Even worse, his ninth year.
PICK ‘EM pool is up, first game is tomorrow; Utah vs WSU.
Just over 24 hrs left to get your picks in.
Psst, don’t tell Mexi, Black Bandits,or The Hammer!
Tinkle on why MBB is gonna turn things around this season:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1585388092327796737
Man he is really bitter about last year’s team. “Taking coaching. What a novel idea, right?”
He thinks this may be the best defensive team! Players “take coaching”. What a clown. No way this team wins 10 games
It’s way too early to be irritated at Tinkles coaching style but I’ll bite-
Since he is going with the narrative of best defense he’s ever had, it will likely be the worst offense. If he has any coaching intelligence he would cut them loose and full court pressure to create an uptempo high risk/high reward approach.
But I’m certain it will be the worst form of Coach control from the sideline yelling on every possession for a certain play set which ends in disastrously bad possessions and poor shot selection, as well as frustrating and unwatchable basketball, which they still lose by an average of 20/game.
The key to basketball is to put the ball in the hole… Tinkle hides behind his team’s shortcomings with even worse game strategy. It will be a disaster and unwatchable, especially once the youthful exuberance of the freshmen goes away and they are beaten down by his conflicting yell/praise/substitution messaging.
Tinkle is a mediocre coach at best.
Oh FFS. He’s had what, 2 teams that have overachieved?
Two years ago he guaranteed they wouldn’t finish last after being picked to finish there. Not a real high bar to clear there coach. You only had to finish 11th to make good on that promise. They finished tied for 4th I think. Ok. See paragraph 1.
I’ll be shocked if they have a winning record this season with that many freshman.
I said it after the elite 8 run. Enjoy it. Because that will never happen again. I stand by that.
2 out of 8? Not good odds on him being correct.
I think “plummeting faster than Facebook stock” might have entered the lexicon today…yikes! What a turd company. They need to hire Gary Andersen to turn that thing around.
Meta verse should have just been a side project. FB itself is still a cash cow.
NB – any worthwhile recruiting updates as we approach early signing period?
Thanks in advance man, appreciate your fit bombs and info.
I havent done much on that front in awhile.
Have a remodel going on amd work is pretty busy, so recruiting/Beavs need to take a back seat at fhe moment.
I was at the game last week and my seats were right next to the section they leave open for recruits and their families. Not a huge group, and most took off by halftime. Dont think we had any official visitors either, they were likely all unofficial.
Saw Brian Grant too. He sits right near the same area
How is that remodel going? Basement, right?
We had to bail on our bathroom project everyone was dropping ridiculous bids (60-100k+) for a 10×12 bathroom update! Ended up doing some exterior work that came to light and paint, that was still somewhat of a nightmare.
Smith’s assessment of Beavers so far.
Martinez to get majority of carries going forward. Musgrave likely done, Gulbranson improving….Lowe not likely ready @ UW…
https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2022/10/oregon-state-football-red-zone-offense-needs-help-gulbranson-improving-musgraves-season-trending-toward-finished.html
One of the reasons I have come to enjoy Angrybeavs.com is because on occasion there has been “insider information” posted by folks that claim to know things about various teams and players. In general, much of that “insider info” has proven to be legit. On occasion, I have also been able to inform folks on this site of upcoming transfers, injuries, coaching changes, etc. because of people I know that are close to various coaches or players. Earlier this year I had a friend of my son’s that is going to school at OSU tell me that Luke Musgrave had sprained his knee and that it would require about 6 weeks of rehab but that LM has decided not to return because he wanted focus on the draft. Per my son’s friend (who lives next door to LM), LM had indicated that that he had decided not to return within days after the sprain even though he would likely be fully healthy in time for the UW game. According to this source there was no surgery needed. I noticed today for the first time, Nick Daschel is reporting that LM had knee surgery and is likely done for the year. So, either ND is wrong, my source is wrong, or they initially thought it was a sprain and only recently decided surgery was necessary. Quite frankly, I wouldn’t be surprise if ND is just assuming that LM had surgery and is misreporting it. I don’t get a sense he really gives a shit. Regardless, I think it’s safe to say LM is gone whether he had surgery or not.
Let the Veiling era begin in earnest then. I wish Musgrave well and hope he makes an NFL roster but I’m not sure he ever met expectations. TW was the better TE for 3 years and Musgrave was always a drop or false start away from greatness in key situations.
His highlight reel for me is the Utah blocked punt TD and the big catch at Fresno to get into the red zone. Beyond those 2 plays, I can’t even remember his impact.
Seems thought to bail on the team when you could be a key part of the final 3-4 games and perhaps a special finish/bowl game.
I wonder if JS is good with the decision or slightly ticked by it. Musgrave isn’t Christian McCaffrey after all.
Play guys that want to play and put in the work, not guys who take plays and games off to prepare for the draft.
Well said. I was never a fan of LM and he never seemed to reach his potential or come through when it mattered. I remember more drops and penalties than catches. I’m also not convinced that he even makes an NFL roster… ever. The NFL likes players that absolutely love the game and want to play. Plus they want TEs that can block and catch. The media perception is that LM is an elite pass catching TE. He’s not. He also is a below average blocking TE. He may be tall and have above average speed for his size but his route running is subpar with below average foot speed and agility. NFL teams will often take a flyer on a “pass catching” TE but after they dive a bit deeper into the LM story, he might not even get an invite to the combine. We’ll see
Musgrave was and still is mostly potential. He’s basically just Noah Togiai in my mind: big athletic dude who was never a great blocker at the college level and needed to work on his catching consistency to be considered a legitimate prospect. I guess he’s getting enough feedback from scouts that he didn’t need to show anything more at the college level. He came into the season as a 2-3rd round projection, but I’m not sure his 2022 really validated that.
I’d love to see him come back and have one really strong season as a Beav, but if he can get NFL money sooner, good for him.
I really don’t get why he would declare for the draft. He put together 1/4 of a good season in 3 years. The others were plagued by dropped balls, penalties and missed blocks. I know he has great athleticism but so do a lot of guys that enter the draft and are already in the NFL. Not to mention coming off an injury usually makes teams weary of drafting guys unless they’ve already came back and proved they’re healthy. I just can’t see him being drafted very high but maybe this is a down year for TEs. Usually the advice is if your not going to be drafted in the first few rounds you should stay. I get trying to get the money when you can tho and not wanting to risk a worse injury.
I already think Velling will be much better than Luke and is way further along than he was at this point. I was really high on him out of high school. He has great YAC ability especially for a TE. If he can be a solid blocker then he’s golden. Needs to clean up the penalties tho and had that one fumble. He’ll end up being the QBs best friend.
The mock draft people are saying 2nd or 3rd round. I think he has more to lose than to gain by playing. And people here saying he is overrated are essentially saying the same thing
That’s not surprising. In the pre-season when asked about the NFL his eyes lit up, and he answered pretty intensely that’s the goal. I think he’s making a big mistake by not coming back and having a big year. He’s an NFL talent, though, so maybe he sees the risk-reward being better with this decision. I’d personally take out an insurance policy and then come back and try to have a big season.
Martinez was spotted at AB as the best back before game 1, so that is no surprise, either.
I just wanted to take this down time to say thanks to those of you who donate to the site. I use that money to buy plugins that keep the site moving fast (e.g. especially useful are the anti spam plugins, which when not used really make the site slow) and of course for my time to keep it going, create content, and look into problems that arise. When there’s surplus I give that to NiceBeav so he can take his lady out for all the hard work he does. I’m trying to find a good “block user” plugin to purchase, but can’t yet, but lately people have been cool and chill, so it’s really not needed. If anyone wants to donate it’s under the contact button. You can do recurring or one time – both are options listed. Recurring is better because it allows more accurate budgeting. Next year in the Spring we have renewal fees coming up. That’s a big one that comes up every 3 or 4 years, depending how I can negotiate the terms. If you do plan to donate keep that in mind and maybe do it then. I don’t like to harp on this stuff, but with a down week it’s a good time to let people know where things stand. 13 years of AB. Crazy. Thanks!
I feel like I comment on this every time there’s a metapost like this, but I think the site could benefit from more structured content. There are some really good takes that get buried in the comments. Even things like season previews and game previews that other sites use to drive traffic could be good.
Not sure what your goal for the site is, but I see room for improvement in that area. Is it just the case that no one “has time for it” or is that just not interest in this? It’s not like the internet is bursting with solid Beaver content. Seems like there’s a niche there.
I used to have forums where anyone could post what they wanted, but nobody used them. I’m not sure what else that would look like other than a forum.
People could point me to great posts with a “COTT” alert, and then I can turn it into a thread. I can also look into something that arranges comments to the top based on a voting system.
WEEK 9 PHIL STEELE REPORT:
Obviously no in-depth breakdown for the Beaver game this week, but here’s what else is on tap.
OTHER PAC-12 SCORE PREDICTIONS
Utah 34 Washington State 20
Arizona State 27 Colorado 17
USC 45 Arizona 27
UCLA 37 Stanford 27
Oregon 37 California 20
Rising out with a knee injury tonight?
Watching for last minute of the 2nd quarter and WSU already getting hosed by PAC 12 refs. Utah without Rising, RB Thomas and kicker.
WSU just stopped them at the 2, but refs call targeting on a straight up tackle for loss in the backfield. Gift Utes a TD at the half. Riot on the Palouse shortly.
Cougs D fighting Utah and the zebras. O fighting zebras, interesting t/o on downs after chain said otherwise.
Helmet to helmet contact and WSU tackler led with crown of his helmet.
I didn’t like the call and it’s a shitty rule imo, but according to said rule it was the correct call.
Utah looks vulnerable without Rising. While the d*cks look invisible and it’s doubtful that they will lose another game until the College Football Playoff. I don’t know of anyone in the PAC-12 who can beat them unfortunately. They are the darlings of college football right now and everyone just can’t seem to get enough of the Nike hype.
*Invincible
Ducks don’t look invincible. Give them 3 more games to read their hype and Beavs will beat them.
Certainly not invincible although I have to say I’m impressed with how Nix has played after the Georgia game. He also had a bad Nix Pick-6 against WSU that really put them on track to lose that game. But they pulled it out and ever since then he’s been stellar. As with every other Pac-12 team, however, you have to ask….who have they really beat? Pretty much a UCLA team that I’m still not sold on and that’s it. The fact that they play Utah the week before CW is interesting and could be huge for the Beavs. If Utah somehow wins it could keep the Beavs alive for the Pac-12 championship. At a minimum they will force the Ducks to play a physical game and potentially take something out of them.
My skeptical conspiratorial side says Utes will get there with only the 1 conference loss but will also be battling refs the whole game too.
Jim Wilson has been pretty vocal about spotting of the ball and judgment call all year. I think the imperceptible finger on the scales often comes down to ball placement at the end of each play. Something to keep an eye on.
Is Ore @ Utah or hosting?
Game is in Eugene
Thanks to the worthless Cougs losing, Utah beating Nike won’t matter unless they lose another one before then or there is some other major unexpected upset. Too many tiebreakers will be going against us.
No one said they’re invincible.
They look a hell of a lot better than us, though.
Utes win in Pullman
Yeah, about that….that first ‘TD’ by the Utes is highly suspect – the guy was at least 6 inches away from bringing the ball across the goal line-it never crossed! There was no review of the play – I thought all TD’s were reviewed- and the Utes went on to kick the extra point and eventually win the game. I know the Cougs didn’t play a stellar game, but I like the Beavs chances against a Rising-less Utah team.
You didn’t think that’s a TD?
Pause the video at 30 seconds.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CJ78Eb4z_3k
No, it wasn’t; even the angle says no as when the RB fell – he was far short of the goal line.
Didn’t he reach the ball out before going down? did Utah’s best corner get hurt, #1? Hopefully they are full strength against the quacks.
That’s what I saw. I don’t know how anyone can say it clearly WASN’T a TD.
If there’s no camera angle from the goal line there’s nothing there to overturn the call on the field.
https://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/valdostadailytimes.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/4/16/4160d38c-d49a-55bf-a9d5-165a51f39529/635b6ad0a9c17.image.jpg?resize=750%2C500
I can’t understand how every field doesn’t have goal line cameras.
Well based on that game, PAC12 has predetermined the matchup for a USC/Oregon championship game to be a top 10 matchup game. Utah needed to win for Oregon to have a big ranked matchup with them. USC will get all call advantages as will Oregon. Beavs will need to plan on beating the ducks and refs.
It would be much simpler to switch to an 8 game conference and gift all teams an extra win against directional U.
Fox did a feature on the matchups of Utah/Oregon and USC/UCLA so it is already being floated that those are the only 4 teams that matter in the conference.
Beavs need to beat Oregon this year just to dampen the mood before they are ushered into the hall of fame for comeback team of all time…based on the reasoning and hype surrounding them.
With LSU and Kentucky playing Bama and Tennesse, I doubt the’ll drop too far with losses this week. So we’re hoping for Cincy, NC and K-State to lose, and that might not be enough.
Liberty, Texas have byes and NC State won Thursday. Oh, and Missouri beating South Carolina would be good.
Amazon right there with Meta with a huge stock drop. More recession signaling.
No worries Beav, everything is fine!
To add to the Luke Musgraves debate, should he try to come back and play or prep for draft.
He’s rated consistently as a draft eligible top 5 TE right now. Some have him in the top 100 overall. Probably has not taken into account his current injury status. But if he’s gotten feedback from scouts saying the injury won’t hurt his stock, then he’d make a good decision to stay out and not risk injury.
He is a 4th year junior so he might be close to being done with academics and being an older prospect can stunt his draft grade.
Coming back will only help him marginally. he’d have to have a huge senior season to jump into the first two rounds. Don’t know he’d get there with the current QBs.
Yeah that’s how I see it. It would probably take a pretty splashy QB transfer to make it worth him risking another year.
LM has been down in LA rehabbing his knee. He will be preparing for the draft once the season is done and is all healed up. He’s as good as gone. Can’t blame a kid for chasing his dream.
Nope. Get healthy, have a good combine. And if he does go relatively high, it reflects well on the Beavers and for recruiting.
Velling may end up providing production equitable to Musgrave’s, and will be the better for it next year.
IF he’s actually considered a top-5 TE in the draft by actual NFL teams, then I think I would agree with this assessment.
However I highly doubt that. What has Musgrave done, really? He has 4-5 good games to his name. He has very good athleticism but has had a career plagued with mental mistakes, errors, and underwhelming/disappointing performances. He’s still very raw and needs major improvement in many areas of his game even at the college level. He’s all potential and very little production, even taking the most recent injury out of consideration.
I think that he DOES need to demonstrate consistent production as well as the ability to stay healthy. I think he also desperately needs to improve his game in many areas- maybe blocking most urgently. I don’t think he’s nearly accomplished enough for the risk of re-injury to outweigh the benefit of demonstrating improvement, production, and the ability to stay healthy.
Not to mention a lot of NFL teams won’t like the fact that he’s essentially quitting on his team midseason. Peacing out before a bowl game is bad enough, but at least there’s some precedent for that.
My guess if he doesn’t play another college snap he’ll go in the 5th-6th round. Maybe 4th if a team really, really falls in love with the potential but I doubt it. And at that draft spot he’ll find reps fairly hard to come by, and the improvement that he needs may be hard to pull off. You never know for sure but I could see this going pretty badly for him. I think this is a very bad business decision and he’s either personally short-sighted, and/or getting bad advice from greedy agents.
Yep agree although I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t get drafted at all. When NFL starts breaking down tape they won’t be able to find a lot to hang their hat on. In addition, not sure he’ll really have the kind of measurables at proday or combine for a team to fall in love with him enough to waste a draft pick. The only thing he has going for him is a draft class that lacks TE talent.
He’ll get drafted. Teagan Q got drafted with less production. His ranking was near the 20s for all TEs in last year’s draft.
Part of it is that most college teams don’t use TEs and less so in a pro style system. Beavs offensive system can feature the TEs and they play a large role when running the ball too. All NFL teams have 3-4 TEs on their roster.
He’s a valuable commodity based on the current market factors.
He is far short of TQ when it comes to blocking which is why he was drafted and is on the Texans roster. Very few TE’s in the nfl are considered go to offensive weapons and at this point in his career Musgrave has done little. I dont see any NFL team giving up a 4th round pick for a guy with 44 receptions and 2 TD’s in 3 years. If he has a huge combine then I guess anything can happen.
OT: NFL rumor – Minnesota may trade for Texan’s Brandin Cooks.
He’s a hot commodity on the rumor mill right now. He’s also been linked to the Rams, Packers, and a few others.
GB could use the help
That’s the understatement of the century!
bYu has 5 losses now. Besides the UCLA win… hole’s resume is looking weaker. They have a cakewalk remaining schedule with the minor exception of Utah. They beat bYu, Eastern Washington, Washington State, Arizona, Stanford, and UCLA. Unless the BEAVS can improve at the QB position, become more electric on offense and score more points, we don’t stand a chance versus hole. Hopefully they will look human at some point before we play them. I just don’t see anyone remaining who can truly challenge them. Maybe they’ll have an implosion type of game with multiple turnovers and mistakes? One can only hope with the best team that money can buy.
Don’t stand a chance against hole? Anytime the Beavs play at home they have much more than a chance.
100% Beavs at home are not a team that any team should come in too confident.
Now Beavs on the road, iffy. This uw game will be exactly this. If it was in reser Beavs win by 2 scores. In Seattle, Beavs gonna have to play really really well to get out with a w
The Beavs will need to score a minimum of 35 points to beat hole. So you’re saying that there’s a chance? Of course the Beavs have a chance especially at home, but in the last 15 years OSU has only won three times vs hole! I want the Beavs to win, but I’m a realist. There’s still a tremendous widened talent gap between us and them, and the Beavers aren’t going to win a ground and pound type of game against hole. Just my opinion and I would love to be proven wrong. The Beavers are a great QB away from being in the top 15 teams in college football.
Dork
Ok quacker
So if and when Hayes gets healthy do we want him kicking field goals? He hasn’t really shown improvement for how much he’s played. Maybe havr him do kickoffs and long field goals and sappington do PATs and short field goals?
Sounds reasonable
Sappington has done just fine on kickoffs. Plenty of leg and lots of touchbacks.
It’s basically a coin flip on FG outside 35 yards. Most kickers now are pretty automatic inside 40 but not the Beavs. Sappington has made 1-2 outside 40 yards, Hayes is 0-3. But Sappington missed a 30 yarder vs WSU.
Opponents are 6-6 in the 40-50 yard range but 1-5 from 30-40 yards. Just an odd stat.
Ya I think it might be time to move on from Hayes. He shouldn’t be doing this poorly at this point in his career. Never really has developed. Might as well use Sappington the rest of the season and see how he does hopefully he can actually progress throughout his career. Maybe use Hayes if you have to kick a 50+ harder. They should be keeping a look out for an upgrade at the position this off-season.
Draftkings put out early odds on the UW game. They have UW favored by 5.
5 pts? Wonder how long that will last?
Eggers thinks it’s Penix vs Bray’s secondary, says:
“UW quarterback Michael Penix Jr., a 6-3, 215-pound junior transfer from Indiana, leads the nation in passing with 2,934 yards and 22 TDs with only four interceptions in eight games.
Oregon State leads the Pac-12 in pass defense efficiency by a wide margin over USC (113.4 to 121.2). Opponents have completed a Pac-12-low 55.4 percent of their passes. The Beavers are second in the league in total defense behind Utah (350.1 to 350.9).”
A little high but not wildly off. How many times have the Beavs won in Seattle all-time?
It seems about right. UW is undefeated at home, their offense lowest scoring game at home was 39 vs MSU.
Beavs got blown out at Utah (closer than the score says but Vegas doesn’t dig that deep)
Beavs needed two last second plays to beat Fresno and Stanford on the road
And the Beavs rarely win in Seattle.
Makes the Beavs a formidable opponent but not a favorite.
Beavs may move into top 25 if Cincinnati, Kansas St and Kentucky all lose today.
South Carolina lost also. Maybe the Beavs sneak in this week?
Cal playing hole tought up 10-7 in the 2nd and just got an interception in the redzone.
That changed quickly. Oregon scores 2 TD in like 2 1/2 minutes late in the 2nd Qtr. 21-10 Ucks at the half
Terrible tackling by cal and some help from the refs. 2 bad no call PI for Oregon.
And another no call PI for Oregon. They clearly don’t want hole to be upset.
Come on, haha. That game isn’t remotely close.
Not now.
I really just wish we could dispense with the conspiracy talk. See it too often on this site. There is no illuminati, reality is more boring than the movies.
Have you watched any of it?
Been flipping back and forth. I believe I’ve watched 2 plays you reference. Both could have been called but were borderline. Nothing egregious.
Except he was holding onto the receiver and another hitting him before the ball was there even the announcers said it.
K St is kicking OK St all over the field. Good day to not be a Cowboy fan
The d*cKs ARE invincible. They won’t lose another game this year. They’re just too good to lose.
Really? What game are you watching
Their offense has averaged over 40 points per game since the Georgia game. They can’t be stopped! So far no team in the PAC-12 has been able to slow them down. Which team can beat them? They won’t lose again.
Most likely you’re right. It’s an impossible situation. Oregon state should forfeit to prevent physical and psychological damage to their players.
I want hole to lose every game, and I want the Beavs to win especially against WHOREgon! I just don’t see them losing another game unfortunately. Everything always seems to fall into perfect alignment for them like no other team in college football for whatever reason.
Seriously, I read you as a Uuck in Beavs clothes.
I’ve seen nothing from Oregon to support your position. Win or lose the Beavs will give them game. I will bet on an outright win by the Beavs.
Georgia would beg to differ.
Ickes embarrassed the entire college football world once already this season. Let’s hope they don’t get another chance.
You’re such a duck homer. Get a life and stop posting on a Beaver forum.
No offense or anything but nobody gives a shit what you think.
They’d lose to TCU
And Michigan, Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Penn State and Ohio State
USC just got screwed by some home cooking on the play clock at Arizona at the end of the first half. Good, fuck ’em.
Sure looked that way, maybe the real conspiracy is whatever keeps PAC12 zebras employed?
Lookin’ around the league today at all of the dual threat QB’s; thinkin’ maybe it’s time to give Lindgren a little slack.
In some ways he’s working with one arm tied behind his back.
Am I wrong?……..By much?
Isn’t he part of recruiting his position? Perhaps his qb limitations are by choice, so no slack given for his own decisions at qb.
Its not just that he doesn’t have a dual threat guy but doesn’t have a that he can trust not to make mistakes and make big plays.
Also I think with the NIL QB is one of the hardest to recruit at places like OSU.
Agree about NIL being in the mix but are there QB or other recruit analytics for “places like OSU?” If it’s the no airport thing, does that explain Colorado’s football demise? OTOH, if it’s the small town boredom reason, I’d like to know what’s going on in Manhattan, Kansas.
I am just going to say this is the most important game remaining. Why, you ask? Because it’s on the road. We can beat anyone at home. But have been shaky on the road. To get a solid road win under our belts would be huge and put us one huge step closer to a potential 10 win season.
Nope. Civil War. Always
Agree, this is where the season came apart last year, late season road games, granted UW is better than Cal and Colorado, but win this one and 9-2 going into the civil war will be the expectation.
This is the second most important game on the schedule. Washington is our second biggest rival.
Saw the Beavs dominated Lewis and Clark in their exhibition. Akanno leading the way with 20 points and Freshman Bilodeau with 18. Sounds like several freshman will have significant roles this year and I will gladly take a huge win in our exhibition considering last year we almost lost…
Fool’s gold…I’ve seen that script before and won’t fall for it again.
The newcomers are possibly still playing their own game(s). Will they back off with WT instruction? It occurred to me during the E8 run that the team was doing their own thing. Perhaps new assistants offer hope. Tinkle’s buddy is gone, the one who supposedly developed post players but never seemed to.
Hard to tell. I think it was in Big Tinks’ first year that they lost to Western Oregon by double digits in the exhibition and then still had a much better-than-expected year with GP-2 leading the way. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not extolling any coaching virtues on Tinkle. He has an interesting way of shedding accountability for the disaster seasons.
Yep, it was his first year. Was an ugly score too. That team was really good defensively. I distinctly remember Victor Robbins was beginning to break out mid season and then had his DUI and essentially ended his career. I was always curious how that team would have fared with Robbins. He seemed like he had the potential to be good enough to swing a couple of games.
Dominating NAIA teams and Italian semi-pros is a good step. Can we take the leap to beating professional student-athletes?
Lewis and Clark is Division 3. But I get your point.
Good to see BSU doing well, helps Beavs schedule;
“Boise State
Written off after losing 27-10 to Texas-El Paso on Sept. 23 — that’s the kind of loss that’s hard to forget, in our defense — the Broncos have played themselves back into the mix for the top spot in the Group of Five with four wins in a row, the latest a 49-10 shellacking of overmatched Colorado State. The offense has started to rally around quarterback Taylen Green, the former backup who ascended to the starting role after Hank Bachmeier opted to transfer in late September. After completing 66.7% of his throws for 227 yards in last week’s win against Air Force, Green had a career-high 305 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams.”
Fresno State as well. Helluva comeback to beat SDSU tonight in the return of Jake Haener.
Montana State is undefeated outside of the OSU game. Not sure if that makes a difference for OSU, but good to see they were a quality opponent for their level of football.
Beavs are ranked 24 in the AP Poll today, so everybody can finally stop bitching.
UW didnt make the cut, despite having the same record. Hope that doesnt serve as extra motivation for the dawgs going into this weeks’ game. Could see then being anxious to send a message to the AP voters for putting OSU ahead.
Just need Angry to write that the Beavers are overwhelming favorites and a Canzano opinion piece saying the Huskies don’t belong on the field with the Beavers…10(?) years ago…
I agree though and can see UW coaching staff using this development for motivation.
But if the Beavers want to have to have a special season and decent bowl game, they have to deal with things like being ranked. It is a good problem to have.
Tennessee also wearing black and orange now…
Fanduel has Beavs 3 pt dogs, that 5 pts from DraftKings still shows but likely will drop. Looks like early $ coming in on OSU.
Looks like the latest on tv contracts will have Big12 cashing in with ESPN for a nice $2.2 Billion deal.
Which leaves PAc12 at the table without ESPN of Fox interested.
Amazon won’t throw that kind of money at sports yet, and Klaikoff will need to be a magician to even find something comparable in the next cycle of talks.
It feels like RIP PAC12 from here forward. I hope not but I’m pessimistic about it based on dollars and suitors available for PAC12 to partner in any kind of media deal and get at least $45-$55million per school annually just to stay close to competitive at this point.
Seems like with this development, BIG12 won’t be adding any PAC12 teams.
Wilner was reporting that the PAC12 is going to try to secure a deal that expires one year before the BIG10 deal expires to get a second shot at a TV deal before the other conferences.
This seems like it opens the door for a deal with streaming services. Just needs to be on par with the BIG12 deal.
Beavs move into the TOP25 in the AP poll. First team out of the rankings in the coaches poll. Some would think this is good news but I think it works against the Beavs.
All we had to do to get ranked was not play? Works for others in the preseason poll, I guess. Feels like we finally cracked this national exposure thing.
When teams lose and drop, idle teams often move up.
PAC has 5 teams in the top 25, with Oregon, UCLA, USC at 8-10, Utah @ 12, OSU @24.
The coaching staff will have to manage this distraction going to UW this week. Almost none of these players have played for a ranked team unless there’s some transfers that have while in previous programs.
I think it works against the Beavs.
I agree, Bill. Rather they’d continue to be under the radar with a chip.
Seems to me, though, that JS is pretty good in the “stay focused/one at a time” mentality.
Go Beavs!
Some Beaver fans have a real inferiority complex if the Beavs being ranked in bad news.
Beavs check in at No. 24. Didn’t play and first time ranked in 9 years.
Eubanks has been giving the Blazers some solid minutes. Nice to see him develop. Got to eat some crow on that one I didn’t think he’d stick around in the NBA, it never seemed like he developed much at OSU but obviously has been benefitting from a couple quality NBA coaching staffs.
I haven’t watched or followed the Huskies at all this season, and I’m unsure of their schedule strength, but here’s a good summary of their offensive production:
“Through eight games, Washington (6-2) is perhaps college football’s most improved offense — ranking first in the nation in passing (379.3 yards per game), first in plays of 10 yards or more (155), third in first downs (27.9 per game), fifth in third down conversions (53.57%), sixth in turnovers lost (5), seventh in total offense (508.5 yards per game), seventh in pass touchdowns (22), 12th in scoring (40.4 points per game), 14th in sacks allowed (0.88 per game), 18th in time of possession (32:20.88) and 19th in pass efficiency rating (158.09).
…
UW’s issues in short yardage as well as the red zone — where the Huskies’ 68.18% touchdown percentage ranks fifth in the Pac-12 and 40th in the nation — also stems from an inconsistent ground game. Grubb noted that “there’s games where we come out and execute the (short yardage) plan really well, and I thought we did that on Saturday. And there’s games where that’s obviously been a problem for us.”
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-football/you-think-these-huskies-put-up-points-uws-103-year-old-bar-is-a-whole-lot-higher/
Its going to be entertaining to see what Bray develops and implements. Hopefully its similarly effective to what he did against USC.
Go Beavers! Game week!
with 2 weeks to prepare for UW, I believe he will have an amazing game plan. Just a matter of players focusing, buying in and executing at a high level.
Man mccafrey got the triple Crown today. 1 receiving, 1 rushing and 1 passing TDs. The first since LT in 2005.
Since we are playing Washington, let’s pose ridiculous what if questions. Do you think the Beavs would be 8-0 with Penix as our QB?
Interesting situation. I never thought about having a Penix in our Beavers….
Why are some of you slobbering all over Penix?
I feel like cracking the top 25 barely has seemed to be a jinx historically. I don’t know if its true but in my memory we seem to lose the next game and fall right back out. This team has bucked many trends and hopefully can do 1 more Sat.
Washington’s turnaround on offense is crazy and that has a lot to do with Penix. I don’t think its a stretch to say we’d probably undefeated if we had him considering that seems to be our biggest weakness thats holding the team back at this moment. I don’t like the idea of promising a QB a starting job and guaranteeing NIL money but Manu you have to think that we could be undefeated with Daniels. Might’ve been worth it to get the championship and rose Bowl. Maybe thats some of the reason Smith hasn’t landed that big QB. He just won’t guarantee them anything but an opportunity.
Daniels has been pretty underwhelming at WVU. I don’t think he would have been significantly better than what we have.
WVU is 3-5…Poor ROI
Ya but we’re a better team especially the Oline wouldve made him look good and the speed at receiver with his deep ball accuracy couldve really opened up the offense.
Game is Friday night on ESPN2, not Saturday night.
I like how Beavs D matches up with UW. Also, UW weakness is pass D. Hopefully JS doesn’t get cute and try to over pass. Just need to pound the run game with occasional PA pass. I actually think the Beavs win this one quite easily. 35-24 Beavs
I was thinking the same thing.
Grading the units against each other:
UW pass O<OSU pass D edge to Beavs based on USC performance
UW runUW run D should be edge for Beavs based on oline experience and last year’s game
I like the Beavs chances as long as they don’t turn the ball over, which could be factored into play calls and how the game is approached by JS and BL on offense. I like the NFL conservative, boring style run first approach for this team given the consistency of the defense. Grind it out, shorten the game, limit possessions for UW offense and frustrate them by forcing long drives and no explosion plays. I expect a similar game to WSU/USC version.
Beavs 28- Huskies 17
UW has a good front 7. Their secondary has been their biggest weakness on D, by far. Barring a season best performance by the OL, BG is going to need to hit a couple big plays if we’re going to win.
The above posters predict UW only scores 17 and 24???
Their season low in points was their last game at Cal – 28. At home I believe it was 39 against MSU.
Beavs are gonna have to score 30+ to win this. I don’t see that happening but would love to be wrong.
I’m thinking something along 35 -21 leg humpers.
I tend to agree, but it’s hard to tell because UW has played terrible defenses. I could just as easily see the post-game narrative being something about how OSU brought UW’s high-flying offense back to Earth.
Fair point. We’re gonna find out Friday night.
Weather could be a factor. Wind and rain tend to slow passing attacks plus nobody predicted USC would only score 17
Btw weather forecast for game is rain with 18 mph winds
All the more reason this sounds like the @UW game from 2000 season. Let’s hope and pray it doesn’t come down to a game tying or game winning FG.