I read through the previous comments, and see there’s some angst about the Beavs being ranked for the first time in ten years, and also some fear of Penix. I’ll start by saying the Beavs have a good team. That alone should solve both sources of angst. If you have a good team, there should be no stress about being ranked – you belong there. If you have a 6-2 team in the PAC, it means you have faced good QBs and beaten them already. There should be no fear about facing more good QBs. So, I get it, Penix has looked pretty good, but he’s been facing relatively weak competition. If anything, Penix should fear the Beaver. As Beaver fans we are too traumatized to realize this works both ways.
We know what Penix is. A feisty QB with wheels who will play hard and win games; a QB who’s passing game has improved every year, but is still not elite in that regard. We know what the Beavs are. A feisty defense that will pressure QBs and let their secondary play free. A run game that’s been steadily improving, along with WRs who have been steadily improving. So Penix isn’t the only player improving. We have key guys doing that, too. Therefore, the wildcard remains the Beavers QB. The only thing we don’t yet know is how good Ben Gulbranson is. My eye test says once the game truly slows down for him we might wind up with the best passing QB in the conference. Since he’s not there yet, let’s say we get 70% of that [future] guy.
So we’re looking at a future PAC 12 passing champ in Gulbranson who is at 70% his potential and improving rapidly, a nasty Beavs D and run game, WRs who are improving every week, a really good Beavs secondary and pass rush, and we’re afraid of an opponent who has put up some numbers versus questionable teams? I don’t see it. I think the only thing that can stop the Beavs on Friday is the Washington crowd overwhelming Gulbranson in his toughest environment yet. But he doesn’t seem like a guy who is easily phased. I think he’ll play at at least 70% of his potential yet again, and that should be good enough given the other pieces the Beavs have.
So, personally I have no fear, and in fact I’m upping my prediction from 28-27 Beavs to…
31-24, Beavs!
Go Beavs.
I hope we beat the cougs again. Go Beavs!
The thought of Penix should have us Beavers all salivating this week.
Hopefully the Beav Dline is all over Penix this week.
Once is probably enough…
Washington State????
BTW…is AB the only Oregon media site to have the Beavs at 6-2 after 8 games? I don’t remember any others…
You know OSU isn’t playing Washington State again, right? Might want to change your headline
I had them 7-1 going into the BYE week and losing coming out of the BYE week to UW. I am more confident in this game than I was at the beginning of the season. So I’m ok with 6-2 going into UW game. I had this game as a loss, now it’s a winnable game given UW is one of the more untested vulnerable teams in the Pac-12.
I think the Oregonian , blitz and edge all did as well.
Consensus opening line from Vegas has UW favored by 4.5 points
Realistically seems low to me. But I’m not a degenerate gambler
UW should be favored by more?
Beavers crack the AP Top 25 coming in at 24! Can we get another bye week??
Here’s an edit angry:
“…on Friday is the Washington crown overwhelming Gulbranson…”
Change “crown” to “crowd.”
Agree with the main points of your post. QB’s like Haener and Williams found OSU D challenging, so will Penix. How will HE hsndle it? Martinez ascending at right time, JS indicates he’ll get a heavier workload going forward. Don’t know about Husky DBs v. OSU receivers, but I think the DBs will be challenged…Velling will show again…finally, Colletto.
May be time for a Dunmore sighting, at least as a decoy (he’s thrown it once). I won’t be surprised by a few razzle dazzle attempts. Also liked that play where Colletto moved in from h-back to QB.
Didn’t Haener have a lot of success? He was really accurate though. I don’t know how accurate Penix has been. Washington likes to throw the ball a lot. I hope that allows our secondary to get some turnovers.
You may be right. I know Williams had a low completion rate. Maybe it was WSU’s Ward that suffered a similar drop off in completion rate from his season average, and not Haener….
Haener was 29/45 for 360 yards, 1 TD and no picks.
Ward was largely ineffective against the Beavs.
Really the only reason the Beavs were in that game and gave themselves the opportunity to win at the end (which they ultimately did) was not breaking in the red zone and forcing Fresno to attempt FG’s.
Fresno drove to the 25 yard line or closer 7 times. Only two of those did they put it in the end zone.
A missed FG and PAT also helped. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.
UW’s offense will largely resemble Fresno’s. But with better athletes.
Beavs will have to play their best game of the season to win.
And no way will they get 4-5 sacks on Penix.
Penix doesn’t stay in the pocket long enough or hold onto the ball long enough for that to happen. They only got to Haener once for that same reason.
Funny you said that. You just made me remember a random dream I had last night where he got 3tds. Weird.
Penix is very accurate and the line protects him well.
“(Seattle) Fri 04 | Night
20°
81%
W 7 mph
Rain and snow in the evening transitioning to snow showers late. Low around 20F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulations less than one inch.”
Beavs running game and Husky passing game are the keys.
Beavs have to commit to the run.
Hopefully a wet, cold Penix doesn’t get it to his receivers.
There is no way it’s going to be 20 deg in Seattle Friday night.
I just checked my weather app. 100% chance of rain, a high of 54, and a low of 43. Pretty typical early November Seattle weather.
“Cold Penix succumbs to shrinkydinks, fails to rise to the occasion in Beaver confrontation”
Harsin out at Auburn. I bet he ends up at ASU or Colorado. Biggest question is whether or not he can adjust to modern college football and recruiting, as that seems to have been one of his biggest problems at Auburn.
I’d bet ASU. It makes the most sense.
That would be a good fit.
Before the rankings came out, I would have said this would be a trap game. For UW though. They are coming off a tough road win and should be feeling good about themselves, and they have Oregon next week. They would be looking forward just a bit. But probably not now. They’ll have motivation to win and chance to get into the rankings again.
The biggest factor going against the Beavers is history.
– Beavs haven’t won in Seattle since 08 (they had won 4 consecutive in Seattle at the time, the Willingham era)
Since 1985, the Beavs have only beaten UW teams with losing records in Seattle. The 1985 win was sandwiched by 10 consecutive losses coming in and followed by 13 consecutive losses after.
Other things going against the Beavs
GB will be facing his toughest environment yet. Utah was tough but he was thrown in vs being the starter going into it. Stanford did not provide any resistance with their crowd.
This isn’t huge but not the best, getting ranked after a bye week feels a bit unearned. It probably makes no difference to the players in prep and mentality due to Smith’s coaching style.
But the conditions may be favorable to the Beavs
Beavs have increased their momentum in the last two weeks. The Beavs have dictated the flow of each game. Opponents had to adjust to the Beavs vs the other way around.
Beavs did win in a hostile environment in Fresno so the team won’t be affected by the crowd that much
UW defense has some serious holes, ranked 127th in 3rd down defense where the Tibs defense lived every year. (Beavs are 61st this year)
Bray has adjusted the defense well to each QB challenge. Penix is more like Ward and Williams. A pocket passer that will run if given wide open lanes but prefers to stay in the pocket. He has 18 yards total this year.
If the weather is windy, it could ground the UW passing game a bit. It’ll certainly be raining on Friday.
UW offense is pretty similar to Fresno St and they basically have the same type of QB. The WRs are deeper but the running game is not. So evens out there. Bray and the players can make adjustments based on that experience.
Key matchups –
OL vs UW DL – UW has a good run defense but they haven’t run into one like the Beavs. OL needs to establish the run and keep GB upright. Get into third and short and it’ll be a long game for UW.
DL vs UW OL – Getting pressure with four is the key. Force UW into third and long. UW offense converts 3rd downs at a 53% clip (5th in the nation). 4-5 sacks is the goal. UW has only given up 5 sacks all year.
DBs vs WR – Strength on strength here. UW gets the ball out fast to the WRs which is why they allow few sacks. Tackling for short gains or disrupting with press coverage is key. Forcing Penix into low percentage throws.
If the Beavs can limit homerun plays and grind out offensive possessions, it’ll be a long miserable night for UW. If not, it’ll be a long miserable night for the Beavs.
“The biggest factor going against the Beavers is history.
– Beavs haven’t won in Seattle since 08…”
May be time for another streak to end. 14 years ago is forever to this Beaver squad.
The NOAA weather forecast says rain with a high near 55 Friday night.
Time off (bye week) should favor the Defenses. Beavs will have advantage there, but just not enough to overcome Gulbranson deer in headlights in packed opponent stadium. If Beavs keep the turnovers to even or -1, they have a chance.
27-24 flip a coin.
You’re dreaming if you think the Beavs can get 4-5 sacks. I wish that wasn’t the case but they just haven’t had it this year. When they do get home they often miss the tackle.
Did you think they’d sack Ward 6 times going into the wsu game?
How do people view the Beavers’ chances if Nolan gets the start?
He won’t
No chance Beavs win if Nolan starts. Too rusty and likely he still has the yips in real game action.
I could see him coming in for some gadget plays or just to throw off the defense. Maybe be the third and short QB with Colletto. Every player a threat to run.
Uh oh. Run game just took an enormous hit.
Oregon State offensive lineman Marco Brewer is out for the year with an injury, head coach Jonathan Smith said.
Adjusting back to 28-27, Beavs.
Big loss for sure, but hasn’t Bloomfield gotten a lot of reps? Hopefully that limits the drop off a bit…
Sucks. Does he have a redshirt year left?
Not so fast my friend. PFF OG ratings for the year:
Bloomfield (284 snaps)
Run blocking: 82
Pass blocking: 62
Kipper (531 snaps)
Run blocking: 71
Pass blocking: 58
Brewer (245 snaps)
Run blocking: 62
Pass blocking: 55
Bloomfield had a rough game against USC, but he did really well against Stanford, WSU, and Colorado. Currently PFF’s #19 ranked OG in the country. He played in every game except the opener. My guess is Brewer has been dealing with the injury all season.
We’ll be fine.
Well that’s good he grades well. Now he has to play great.
I was about to say he’s been really good when he’s been in.
Enormous is an enormous overstatement. His backup Bloomfield is very experienced and has played in every game and started the Montana St game. Brewer left a game earlier this year with an injury and Bloomfield played the rest of the game. There probably is a drop off but not that significant.
Ha that’s funny. We’ll be fine without Brewer. Just puts a strain on depth but Bloomfield is actually the better player
Drinks are on Harsin if you see him:
“Harsin is owed a buyout of approximately $15.97 million, which is 70% of his remaining contract. Half of that is owed within 30 days. The buyout cannot be offset by taking a job at another school, meaning Harsin will get every penny Auburn owes him.”
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/sec/2022/10/31/bryan-harsin-fired-auburn-football-coach/10652880002/
Son of a bitch. What a sweet deal.
That’s a great agent
Good. Let those fuckers hemorrhage money.
Wonder why they say “meaning Harsin will get every penny Auburn owes him.” Harsin can and will get another job somewhere. If nothing else a coordinator position.
I think its just to emphasize that contract buyouts are usually structured that if a coach is fired, then gets hired by another team, the buyout from Auburn would be offset partially or in full by the value of the subsequent contract the coach signs. He could become a HC somewhere else and STILL be getting paid 70% of his salary by Auburn with no offset. This is fairly unique and shows how desperate Auburn is why Bill said “That’s a great agent.”
Oops now I see it says “cannot be offset” not “can”.
Any word on why Brewer is out?
Injury? Or off the field issue?
Nvm, just saw Angry’s post mentions injury. Daschel’s just said he is out for the year
Based on the presser today, it’s trending towards Ben with the start. Nolan had a “limited practice” today.
I’ve already said what I think about this situation but if he’s healthy, I’m playing Nolan. I guarantee you that’s exactly what the coaching staff is thinking too. Whether it’s this week or the next three, we will absolutely see Nolan again this season.
I guess it depends on if we keep winning or not. If they beat UW with BG, hard to see why JS would make a change unless BG gets hurt. If BG plays like crap vs UW and they lose, agree we might see Nolan again
Agreed. You can read between the lines with JS’s comments about BG that they aren’t convinced by his play so far.
Big time. He’s never given Ben much praise. And I keep referencing it but the Utah postgame presser tells me all I need to know. He said it’s not a competition. Ben hasn’t done anything in these 3 games to prove he’s head and shoulders above Nolan.
What did Nolan do to show he is head and shoulders ahead of BG, aside from throw more picks? If picks are the measure, then by all means, get that kid back out there, post haste!
Yeah I don’t see putting Nolan back in unless BG suddenly starts throwing 4 picks per game. BG isn’t some electric talent that will take the team on his back but he’s also not out there actively losing the game for you.
BG might be an electric talent. I don’t know how people can make definitive statements about him at this point. But nonetheless, he’s showed great promise that he could turn into a top passer.
He may still develop in to one, but he’s no Johnny Manziel.
I can see BG getting the hook at halftime if the offense is struggling and Nolan is a full go. But GB gets the start this week no matter what.
It’s a bit of gamesmanship by Smith to keep his QB choice in flux to the other team. He’s knows who will start this week.
I will not get the hook at halftime! I’m a very dedicated fan…
Hard to gauge this one. If this program wants to take the next step it must consistently beat Washington.
Lindgren mails it in on the play calling but defense gets a TD, 24-20 Beavs
I agree. Is UW for real? They haven’t beaten anyone with a winning record. They are 5-0 at home but just 1-2 on the road with what I would call an unjustifiable loss at ASU. Right now I would say the Beavs schedule holds more merit since they’ve played Boise, Fresno, USC, Utah and Wazzu.
Reality says they aren’t winning in Eugene next weekend. They could win the other 3 (Colorado and the crapple cup), win a bowl game and finish with 10 wins. Their fans and pundits would claim they’re back. I’m not sold.
But I’m also not sold on ANY Pac-12 team. Even Oregon.
I called a UW win but can just as easily see a Beavs W. This is a difficult one to gauge.
Hypothetical here…..
Say Oregon wins out these next 3 but loses the civil war. USC or UCLA win out and play them in the Pac-12 title game. USC or UCLA wins the Pac-12 title game and gets into the CFP as a 1 loss team. Would or could the Rose Bowl invite a 3 loss Oregon team as the Pac runner up???
If the Beavs win out, to go 10-2, they’d present the kind of “rags to riches with the hometown QB comes back as HC” story that plays really well.
The Rose Bowl would have some explainin’ to do if they weren’t picked.
However, when swoosh is involved illogical things can happen.
I don’t think a 10-2 OSU team that did not play in the PAC-12 title game would be eligible for the RB. But what do I know?
Still not as big a story as USC or Chip, though. LA and big NIL deals are easier to sell than the “worst P5 conference’s” least followed team.
In that scenario you would have the PAC12 champ game winner with 1 loss (say USC), 2-2 loss teams UCLA/OSU and 2- 3 loss teams UO & Utah
If UsC goes to the playoffs, the next highest ranked PAC12 team goes to Rose Bowl don’t they? So the Beavs would be on a 7 game win streak by then, having just beaten Ducks, but UCLA would have just lost to USC in week 11.
That may be the Beavs best shot at the Rose Bowl to me.
Someone may be able to research the Rose Bowl selection process.
Hrm. The process is explained here. I guess this was a possibility 2 years ago.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/11/05/pac-12-postseason-scenarios-how-utah-climbs-into-the-rose-bowl-if-oregon-makes-the-cfp/
Oops. Last year. But Utah won out and made it a moot point. I guess it is possible for the Beavs to get to the RB in this fashion. They’d have to be chosen in a dog and pony show over Oregon, UCLA and Utah.
Dog and pony show…………….that’s why the Jonathan Smith story could be the deciding factor.
I don’t think most people care about the JS story. Chip is far more relevant to most people because they remember when he was the Man Changing College Football.
Let’s face it: absent a flashy Heisman contender or something, the Beavs are not a big draw.
Yeah, a 1 loss season is the best way for the beavs to get a rose bowl…
Seven Mcgee enters the transfer portal. Pretty explosive athlete but not really a position of need for us but would be cool for him to have a big game against Oregon next year for us. But like I said not a position of need as a RB and as a receiver would be like another Bolden which wouldn’t be a bad thing since I think we lose Harrison and Lindsay.
OT: I went to the White Out game at Penn State two weeks ago. Game sucked, but that was hands down the most awesome atmosphere I’ve ever witnessed at a CFB game. The tailgating was also epic. 109+k fans and the stadium was loud!!!!
Yes, it is the house that little boys built. But for them there was (and still is with alot of PSU supporters) a blackout.
I’ve read that getting out of State College after a game is a challenge–true?
I had heard the same thing, but it was no problem.
Because you aren’t a minor ;)
Read that there was poor crowd management and some fans in congested areas felt unsafe, nearly crushed I guess. Did you see any of that?
Looks like some fun weather for Friday night. Im thinking OSU could benefit being a run first team
https://twitter.com/nickdaschel/status/1587511829114519552
The Jim Rome show wrote me today (super cool!) and asked me to share this:
https://www.jimrome.com/media/audio-channel/1112022-jonathan-smith
Interesting quote by Rome at the end: “It’s interesting to talk about different teams, too…”
Even the mainstream media is sick of the same 10 teams every year.
Its fox/espn/Mainstream media fault we only get the same 10 teams shoved up our asses. There are plenty of good stories to be told if they bothered to look
Did you tell him he had a nice take?
WAR Beavers over UW this week.
WAR Beavers to the Pac12 championship.
I’m out!
IIRC Rome was the one calling the 2000 team the best in the nation back then. He thought they should have had a shot at the title.
Thanks for the post
Is he and his show any good?
The Smith interview was fine. I can’t speak to the Rome show today, but years ago it was quirky fun, though he got a grating after a half hour or so.
Jim Everett thinks it’s the best show ever!
Ahem, Chris.
Rome wasn’t much of much at that point–he was known in the LA/San Diego market, I used to listen to him XTRA– his career took off after that incident though.
I actually watched that when it aired, Everett was right for flipping that table, and Rome was right to stand his ground, surprisingly. He’s so arrogant though it was amusing to watch him cower. Don’t talk shit to another dude and not expect to get busted in the mouth.
Beavs come in at #23 in the first release of the College Football Playoffs poll. The only poll that actually matters. Not bad
Beavers #21 in USAToday ranking of 1-last:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2022/10/31/tennessee-second-behind-georgia-college-football-ncaa-re-rank/10647300002/
That sounds reasonable.
Oregon at 7 and Alabama at 8.
Alabama, 3 point loss at Tennessee that UT won on a long FG as time expired.
Oregon, 46 point loss to Georgia on a neutral field that in reality was mostly a home game for UGA.
I’m no SEC honk, but is that reasonable?
Now Nike is getting more love than Alabama. The hype machine is really running hard.
No it is not.
Its absurd that Oregon’s blowout loss to GA didn’t have the longevity that last year’s win at Ohio State had for them.
But I do think the Beavers as #21 is reasonable. Had they beat #7 USC, and held them to 10 points, or even won 21-17, I think they would be around #12-15 by now.
If OSU win’s out, what is the highest they can realistically rank in that poll?
Depends on what the teams ahead of them do. And how many of those teams are in the SEC.
Much of that will depend on what happens ahead of us. None of our remaining games will give us much of a bump in their own right other than Nike. If we win out, I could see us being in the #10-12 range when bowl selections are being made. Last year, the lowest ranked 2 loss P5 team was #10 Oklahoma. Going into bowl season they were #16.
That would mean a win over Oregon and the media holds them apparently in very high regard. So I would say we would have to be top 10 if we win out. The win over Washington would very likely move us up in the polls as well.
Depends on what teams ahead of them do also. I think 14-15. Currently 23, beat Washington and I could see 1-2 spot jump. Beat both Cal and ASU i could see another 1-2 spots. that puts OSU around 19 or so. If the Ucks keep winning, then they could be top 4-5 team going into OSU game. Win that and OSU gets a big 4-5 spot jump, I think.
Golden Glove for Steven Kwan!
How much credit goes to Casey?
Steven Kwan’s game is everything I love about baseball in one player.
I didn’t realize hole has only given up 1 sack this year. Dam
Eggers reports on a Beavs NIL event, gives some details on 21 players getting “…$5,000 before August training camp and will receive a total of $10,000 if they stay at Oregon State for the academic year…”
Short read with link to another Eggers story on the topic.
https://www.kerryeggers.com/stories/its-beaver-fever-at-jim-fisher-volvo-and-everyone-has-a-good-time
The more I think about it, the more I think the most efficient way of implementing NIL is providing equal payment to all players instead of trying to pay certain recruits millions of dollars. Make the program financially attractive to a larger number of players and you greatly increase your potential talent at every position. Try and predict the future of a few HS kids, and the overall impact on your team is not going to be great (unless you’re Jackson State).
An experiment concerning equal pay for equal work: https://www.ted.com/talks/frans_de_waal_moral_behavior_in_animals
Sorry forgot to say watch at 12:45 mark… the whole thing is interesting but this is what I got a kick out of the most.
Power to the proletariat!
: )
This isn’t about equality. It’s about the unpredictability of individual players’ outcomes (both in recruiting and on the field).
https://247sports.com/Season/2018-Football/RecruitRankings/?InstitutionGroup=HighSchool&PositionGroup=QB
Look at the 4-stars on this list and think about if Beaver donors had pooled $1M to try to convince one to play at OSU. Your success rate with a QB living up to that investment would have been incredibly low.
On the other hand, if you offered $40k to every commit in the class, how much could you improve the overall talent level? And if you just got the next highest ranked guy we offered at every position, as an example: we would have ended up with 3-star and future #2 overall draft pick Zach Wilson instead of Jake Dukart as our QB.
I wonder how people hear about these events. I’m not sure I would have gone to this sort of event anyway, but I’m glad others are into it.
This is kind of a funny video of a security guard dancing with cheerleaders at Tennessee. Its a set up, but pretty well done:
https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/
It reminds me once of a security guard at Reser, he was on the other side of the stadium, standing there, and all the cheerleaders run over that section in front of him, they start dancing, gyrating, bending over in front of him, he’s still facing the crowd and looking over the crowd, and I laughed wondering if he was uncomfortable or if he thought “Yes!” and that was the best part of the job….
Anybody seen Tennessee play? Think OSU’s D, particularly its secondary, could play with Tennessee’s offense?
Hooker would have to have a bad game. They’re nothing special other than him (especially the OL), but he’s a Heisman candidate mobile QB who is more likely to scramble than Williams.
Our secondary is very good but that doesn’t equal very good pass defense. Until we get better pressure they’ll have to continue to lead the league in passes defended. Luckily the pass rush is trending upward.
Weather forecast has not changed much so it looks like it’ll be a wet one with some wind. Might make Smith’s decision making easier on lengthy field goals.
Nice summary of defense’s marked improvement, and a bit on Bray’s approach with extra time:
https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2022/11/oregon-state-football-weather-extra-prep-could-help-beaver-defense-isaac-hodgins-undecided-on-2023-season.html
Vegas odds moved a little bit. Went down to -3.5 for UW after the initial odds came out and then back up to -4.5.
Late bets coming in for UW
Over/Under moving from 60 to 55……..Vegas lookin’ at weather.
Here’s the link to Eggers other story on NIL. It’s longer than the one posted above but worth reading.
Several quotes, including Mikayla Pivec, who says,
“It went from a donor not being able to buy me coffee at Dutch Bros to now somebody paying me enough to convince me to go to school there,… “It moved too fast. I like the opportunity it brings for female athletes to earn money through their sport, but I’m concerned what long-term effects it will have on team camaraderie and academics, what priorities should be in college…”
https://www.kerryeggers.com/stories/the-abcs-of-nil-and-its-effect-on-college-sports-today
One more link for y’all, Walton sounds off on the UCLA move to B1G:
https://www.ksl.com/article/50507742/ucla-icon-bill-walton-breaks-silence-roasts-school-over-big-ten-move-thats-about-money
Yeah for once I like Walton’s babble.
Every time he says “conference of champions” take a drink.
You won’t be sober long.
I for one can’t stand his mush brained babble.
Not babble for once – will it matter? I fear all the fuss about the Beavs, Jim Rome show, being ranked, thinking the weather will be of benefit seems like the a SI curse. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-joe-beaver-show/id1508422144 Seattle guy assures that Washington has great running backs – just hasn’t needed to use them.
Saw Julian on campus today with a brace and crutches. Luke was driving out of the parking lot by the stadium so I guess he isn’t in cali rehabbing/training for the draft. I thought I had read that here. Saw Chatfield, told him to beat the dawgs Friday. Stadium looking awesome. Went down on the field thanks to some nice football staff guys.
Glad to hear the stadium is looking good. Always thought it would look like two distinct halves and not really cohesive.
I did hear a funny story today that the construction guys had been working four tens because the football program didn’t want them working Fridays just in case a worker tried to film any practices.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/34934063/sources-gonzaga-talks-big-12-joining-conference%3fplatform=amp
Big 12 – “Hey Gonzaga, wanna join up?”
Pac-12 – Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Gonzaga is good in literally one sport. Not to mention I don’t know how that could even work to have them join a major conference given that they don’t have a football program.
Hard pass. Big 12 knock yourselves out.
Aren’t they pretty good in baseball?
For the WCC sure
How does taking on Gonzaga benefit a P5 conference?
Every other MBB program will immediately fall down a peg in conference and they dont have a football program to bring in revenue.
Does extra MBB revenue really move the needle?
I guess if Gonzaga were to continue a high level of post season success, it would represent the conference well?
Yes it does move the revenue needle. Remember how much money the Beavs brought in for the elite 8 run? It was worth millions. A team like Gonzaga that can help a conference have multiple teams making deep runs, pays off huge.
There’s not many additional eyeballs GU brings to the conference. The PAC already owns the state of Washington…so any additional revenue share will be minimal. IMO it doesn’t make financial sense.
Gonzaga has no following outside of Washington? Interesting take
And don’t forget the nun…
People knowing some dinky little school in Spokane, WA called Gonzaga has a good men’s basketball program does not equal a “following” outside of the NW.
Did Ron Hardge REALLY post that embarrassing post about entering the transfer portal? “University of Oregon State?” “…this opportunity to PURSUIT my dreams…”
WTF?
Oh boy
Hometown press trying to provide bulletin board material for Huskies? Seattle Times picks Beavers:
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/
Also, a look at some select UW statistical rankings:
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-football/six-statistics-that-explain-uw-footballs-6-2-start/
The pick I see was by Jon Wilner, from the SF Bay area. Maybe I missed a Seattle scribes pick?
Anyway, here is a non-paywall link to Wilner’s take on all the PAC games this week (he has underdog Tree winning outright as well):
https://www.ksl.com/article/50508582/pac-12-picks-underdogs-oregon-state-arizona-state-win-outright-utah-rolls
Nugget of that article is the weak UW schedule. Every team they ave played sits at 3 wins. Their defense hasn’t faced any of the premier qbs of the conference and their defensive philosophy is based on teams needing to pass to keep up with their offense. I think their run D numbers are reflecting bad teams that were trying to pass to stay in the game.
I’m more confident considering weather, running game and Beavs secondary tackling well.
Game will likely come down to turnovers. Beavs are the first legit defense Huskies have played and it will show as Penix struggles much like Ward and Williams.
BG manages another winner, Martinez and Griffin punish the Huskies.
Go Beavs…28 UW 15
Forgot about UCLA…doh!
I’ll stand by my statement. Beavs defense is the best UW has faced this year, and it will be in difficult weather.
Go Beavs
Thanks, i couldn’t see the article i linked for you guys.
Speaking of betting on the wrong horse: less than a year after giving Mel Tucker a massive contract, Michigan State is a disaster. Several players suspended for beating up a Michigan player and they lose a commitment from their recruiting class every other day.
His trajectory reminds me of Slick Willy, the hot name that bounced around then finally settled in one spot and had to start coaching.
Apologies for the delay. Pickem games are up. 1st game this week is Friday with the Beavs/UW showdown, so you only have around 30 hours to get your picks started
Listened to the dam podcast and the UW guy says the receivers are always wide open in the offense and its more scheme than talent. Hopefully Bray and the secondary are ready and don’t blow assignments giving them easy completions. I know we’ll be the toughest defense/secondary they’ve played so it eould be nice to see these guys slow down this passing attack and get some picks.
Weather says most of the rain is supposed to be stuck in the mountains and Seattle might not get much. The wind might be more of a factor.
This is probably the best pass rush they’ve seen at least as far as getting pressure without blitzing. We really need a big game out of the OL in bothe pass blocking and run blocking. They’ll need to be able to run the ball efficiently to be successful otherwise might be screwed. They need to avoid penalties too so they can stay out of 3rd and long situations. Would like to see a lot of short passes to the running backs anf WR screens to get the ball out quickly at a high percentage rate. Would be nice to have Lowe in this game.
Hodgins claimed off of waivers by the Giants. Might be a better opportunity for him to get on the field.
Rams or Packers Should have got him
Packers for sure but still probably more opportunity than the bills.
Touchdown Teagan! Nice grab too adjusting to the throw and fighting off two defenders. He was just activated after knee surgery. So awesome.
Read Cooks was absent from Texans practice for “personal reasons” after deadline trades fell through. Think he felt fucked over by Houston (who apparently tried to get a 2nd rounder fir him).
https://www.houstontexans.com/video/can-t-miss-teagan-quitoriano-s-first-td-in-his-nfl-debut
Plenty of Beavs representing tonight,
Seumalo and Togiai (practice squad) on the Eagles,
Cooks, Nelson and Quitoriano on the Texans.
That was a helluva nice catch. No shame if he didn’t catch it, good if he prevents INT, damn nice to play through and secure the catch.
WEEK 10 PHIL STEELE REPORT:
Oregon State broke a 9-game losing streak last year in a 27-24 game (4-6 ATS). Oregon State is just 2-4 SU & ATS in Friday games. Last time here (‘20) the Beavers (+14) were down 24-21 at halftime and were shut out in the 2nd half but covered in a 27-21 loss. Washington leads the series 67-35-4 and has won 6 straight in Seattle. Last Year the Huskies (+2) took a 24-17 lead early 4Q but allowed a TD and game winning 24-yard FG as time expired and Oregon State took over first place in the Pac 12 North. Washington is 8-3 SU & ATS in Friday games and is at home playing with legitimate revenge. Jonathan Smith is 7-17 SU on the road. Oregon State had an impressive start to the year at 3-0 SU and ATS then took USC to the wire in a 3 pt home loss. The ATS streak ended in a 42-16 loss at Utah but the Beavers got a lucky come from behind win at Stanford trailing by 14 in the 4Q with a 58 yd TD pass with :13 left to win by 1. The my delivered as a Key Selection winner at home beating Washington State 24-10 then blasted Colorado 42-9 and are fresh off a bye. QB Nolan was injured early vs Utah, but Ben Gulbranson has filled in well and Nolan may return this week. With a loud home stadium Oregon State allows just 319 ypg at home but 404 ypg on the road. Washington had an equally impressive start at 4-0 SU and ATS but lost at UCLA in a game they trailed 40-16 in a 40-32 loss. Washington was then upset in the desert by Arizona State (interim HC) and did not cover in wins vs Arizona and California. They are fresh off a bye and +197 ypg at home. Oregon State has taken on the tougher schedule (#40 vs #64) and the Beavers have the best RB in Damien Martinez with 517 (6.5). Washington has the clear edge at QB with Michael Penix hitting 68% with a 22-4 ratio while Oregon State’s QB’s have a 12-11 ratio. The last two years Oregon State is 10-1 SU and 10-1 ATS at home but are 2-7 SU and 2-7 ATS on the road. and The Huskies have a large home edge here and get the solid win. The latest info is calling for heavy rain and winds and if that is the case it would favor Oregon State which is better running the ball so I will stay away from this one as weather is a very iffy factor 3 days in advance.
WASHINGTON 35 OREGON STATE 27
POSITION BY POSITION EDGES
WHEN OREGON STATE HAS THE BALL:
Oregon State QB/WR’s vs Washington DB’s: ORST +1.33
Oregon State RB’s vs Washington LB’s: ORST +0.50
Oregon State OL vs Washington DL: WASH +0.86
WHEN WASHINGTON HAS THE BALL:
Washington QB/WR’s vs Oregon State DB’s: WASH +0.46
Washington RB’s vs Oregon State LB’s: ORST +0.95
Washington OL vs Oregon State DL: WASH +0.37
MISCELLANEOUS
Special Teams: ORST +1.82
Kicking: ORST +1.00
Coaching Staff: ORST +0.80
PROJECTED BOX SCORE (ORST-WASH):
Projected Rushing: 138-105
Projected Passing: 218-344
Projected Yardage Total: 356-449
Projected Final Score: 31-33
Experience Rankings: 22-49
Team Schedule Strength: 37-64
Las Vegas Line: Washington by 4.5
Las Vegas Total: 54.5 Points
+/- Ratings: Oregon State by 0.5
Game Grade: Washington by 5.6
Computer Yards: Washington 449-356
Computer Points: Washington 33-31
Spreadsheet Prediction: Washington by 3.5
OTHER PAC-12 SCORE PREDICTIONS
Oregon 49 Colorado 17
Utah 47 Arizona 24
Stanford 20 Washington State 17
USC 38 California 17
UCLA 31 Arizona State 28
Phil Steele is a waste of time to read. He gives OSU + advantage in 6/9 categories and still picks Uw by 12.
Not worth considering his historical views either since these teams have nothing to do with historical streaks, betting lines etc.
I don’t understand his conclusion either. As you say, he gives OSU the advantage in 6 of 9 categories; to top it off, OSU averages 1.06 vs WSU .56. Seems Beavs are ahead in that approach.
Then, he has “computer points” and “spreadsheet prediction”, both showing less than a 3.5 spread favoring WSU; how does he get 12 pts for his forecast?
Still stuck on Angry’s original headline, eh OOB?
Two things: Home field advantage is not listed in the statistics, which needs to be considered – it’s vastly underrated by people. Also, he’s not incorrect that Oregon State’s played wildly inconsistent and been extremely lucky in their road wins to date. They’ve played much better in Reser. Maybe this week will be the weekend they buck that trend. One can only hope. But it’s a matter of showing up and doing it. Until then, that’s going to be a continuing narrative.
Interesting side note on this subject: Pac-12 home favorites are 33-1 straight up this year (only loss was Arizona State to Eastern Michigan). So that’s another trend they’ll need to overcome today.
The UW QB/WR “edge” on OSU DBs is at best break even given OSU’s track record against Williams and Ward, and UW’s lack of a track record against winning teams.
UW’s advantage is in a stadium that could have 50K+ fans, and a OSU playing a RSFR QB who has never played in that kind of environment.
I expect the Beavs to win this game. As the year has progressed I’ve gone from hopeful but skeptical to believing this team is legit. The D has impressed as of late causing TOs and getting pressure on QB. Offense has settled into an identity of run first and take care of the ball. BG or the QB position in general remains my biggest concern. If the Beavs lose vs UW, I believe it will be because BG didn’t get the job done. UW will sell out to stop the run and force BG to beat them. This game will define our season… lose and we’re just another average P12 team. Win and this team will likely be ranked in top 15 heading into CW.
I have confidence in this team.
I couldn’t say that as definitely not too long ago.
For whatever it’s worth, Mel Kiper has draft position rankings out
Musgraves is the #2 TE
Names you didn’t think of
Josh Gray is the #3 guard
Alex Austin is the #7 CB
Who didn’t think of them? I think most think Gray is pretty good but not having the season we all hoped for. Austin is good and most people that understand the game well see that. I know there are some that would bitch about him from time to time not understanding the schemes we were running and who he was going up against. Gray at G makes sense as he’s only 6’4 kind of like kipper who has the height but could never handle speed rushers. Thank god he’s not tackle against Washington as he’s done terrible against Fetui in the past.
I think Austin is boom or bust and lacks consistency. I really expected him to improve. What am i missing?
He must be thinking of Wright. Austin isn’t draft eligible until 2024.
He’s draft eligible…
You need to be 3 years out of college to be draft eligible. Austin is on his 4th year.
Normally a true junior or redshirt sophomore can declare.
3 years out of *high school
#7 CB???
Calling bullshit on that. There’s a reason he’s repeatedly picked on by opposing offenses.
What are his measurables? Tall CBs are highly valued. I couldn’t believe how high Nashon Wright was drafted, but the Dallas DC had formerly developed the Seattle Seahawks D and Richard Sherman, and likes tall CB prospects.
Also, Kiper has been known to be wrong…
Wright is taller and better. He seems like the more obvious prospect.
Is it because they don’t want to throw at Wright?
Anyways, it was the only list I saw Austin on.
Like I said some people don’t understand why the ball is being thrown a certain place against a certain coverage.
Speaking of CBs, Steven Nelson had a good game last night for the Texans! Amazing that both teams that played last night, have a starter that went to OSU. Somehow they hang around.
If Oregon State wins tonight and ends up at 9-2 watch them rise faster in the CFP poll than you might expect especially if Oregon keeps winning to setup a marquis match up in the Civil War. I think this is why LSU is so high in the ratings right now. Utah will rise as well heading into there game with Oregon.
LSU is high because they’re in the SEC and very marketable. Voters think “oh it’s Brian Kelly and LSU, of course they’re good.” Same reason Texas is constantly overrated. We’ll never get the same benefit of the doubt. Unless we suddenly become really marketable because we have a QB who loves hurdling defenders or something.
LSU is 15/17 in AP and Coaches Poll and 10th in the CFP. The CFP has done this every year, moved teams up or placed a team into the top 25 to create a match up and viewership. LSU is top 10 because of this weekend match up with Bama, Utah will move into that spot ahead of their match with Oregon to create another top 10 show down, and OSU will be top 12 or so if we are 9-2 going into the Civil War. I’m talking about the CFP not the AP/Coaches. OSU will be lucky to crack top 15 in AP/Coaches prior to Civil War.
Weather here in Western Washington is pretty miserable this morning and may be worse by game time; lots of wind and rain – probably not conducive to a team that passes a lot. Husky Stadium can get pretty breezy with the wind coming right off the lake. Weather conditions give me hope that the Beavs can pull something off tonight! Would love to give the ‘husky honks’ something to chew on going into next weeks game at Oregon…
the coin flip becomes somewhat interesting. If the wind is constantly blowing in one direction, a team may choose to receive in the first half so they can choose which way they will go in the 4th quarter. they’d want the opponent to play into the wind so kicks and throwing will be tougher.
We can’t kick fgs well anyways so just pound em with the Jackhammer.
last random thoughts before the game,
weather will not be a factor for the players
weather will be a factor for fans, I’m thinking a lot of them will not return at halftime especially students. Wonder how many students will show up in the first place. Won’t be a deafening crowd, probably similar environment to Fresno St.
In all but one game, UW has scored a TD on their opening possession. Only at Cal did they settle for a fg. (USC has the same stat, only the Beavs have stopped them on the opening possession)
UW reportedly has all their starting secondary back. That has been their weakness all year.
Much has been made about UW run defense but the same case was made before facing WSU. We’ll see if the Beavs can dictate the line of scrimmage.
I expect more motion and misdirection on run plays. WRs should get a few sweeps or reverses. (a redo from the Colorado game)
I am fairly sure that the Beavs haven’t run the same gadget play twice this year. I kind of expect some trickery tonight.
Odd stat of the night,
Beavs avg 12.7 yards per completion. UW avgs 11.6 yards.
All good stuff, Bill.
Spot on: …more motion and misdirection on run plays. WRs should get a few sweeps or reverses…
UW lost to ASU. There’s no reason to fear them.
If the Beavs play the same way they’ve been playing all season (minus the Utah game), they’ll win.
That was an away game they’re much better at home like us.
Hopefully there was someone reviewing whatever ASU did to slow down UW passing. No tds, longest pass of 26 yds, 1 int.
I like Beavs chances even with BG at the helm in th is one. UW honk Softy Maller said wind will not be a factor due strong arm qb, also said the wind doesn’t blow directionally but swirls inside the stadium. Either way, Beavs will have some chances for ints based on UW passing up to 50x per game. If Beavs can play patient, pick their spots for play action and trust the Oline, I think Beavs offense will be tough to stop.
Go Beavs in a grind it out program win, no star qb to carry the team, but an overall impressive team win.
I’m hoping the kicking doesn’t factor but Bolden on kick returns may be a big element with wind knocking down kicks/punts.
His statements are funny: “wind won’t be a factor” and “wind doesn’t blow directionally, but swirls inside the stadium”. Yeah, I’m sure unpredictable, constantly changing wind won’t affect passing at all…
Game thread scheduled for 6pm. #gobeavs
Game day tweet:
https://twitter.com/BeaverFootball/status/1588569485908541440?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Image of Atmospheric river. Beavers usually do better in water than huskies:
https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/1588546431756865536?cxt=HHwWgMCo4YWk04ssAAAA
Wind picking up here in Sunriver area….
The*
A lot of this matchup is going to come down to the Oline. They need to make holes for the RBs and protect BG well. If they struggle to do those 2 things it will make it extremely hard for the Beavs to get a win.
As far as defense goes it sounds like the scheme does a lot of tge work getting the receivers open. We can’t have any miscommunication and blown assignments. Need to tackle well after the catch and get some decent pressure.
Game day predictions….
Beavs 38 Puppies 28….Martinez 200+ rush yards.
Rolling, rolling, rolling for some better bowlin!
35-34 Beavs! They’ll crack the top 20.