The big takeaway from Friday’s game, for me at least, was that Smith hasn’t made any progress in understanding when to go for a 4th down and when to take points. The problem with analytics is they don’t specifically analyze your team. So if the probability of a 4th down conversion is X, that is the aggregate of all teams going on 4th down. If you parsed that out and removed the elite teams, you’d be left with a much, much lower conversion rate. Also, it doesn’t factor in play call. Again, elite teams calling good plays (i.e. great OCs) with superior athletes are going to skew those numbers.
Unless the analytics say the Beavs make 80% of 4th downs when calling play X, it is completely useless. Yet, Smith continues to use it. And fans continue to support the decisions with the notion that analytics supports the call. This is completely wrong. We have a stupid head coach. A guy who thinks he’s being edgy, understanding da maths, and meanwhile is the fool who is playing the math against his own team.
Really bad situation. Smith factor is now -2 wins per year, just as the Riley factor, but Smith’s ceiling is higher so we can lose those games and still win 8 or so. Sad situation. Smith has rebuilt the program, but the reality is he will never understand the nuance in analytics needed to master in-game decisions, so at some point Beaver fans are going to have to ask he hands over the baton to a more standard coach (Riley 3.0!!!?).
The other topic worth discussing is Ben Gulbranson. I’m not willing to write him off entirely, but if Nolan is ready to play, I think Ben needs to sit and learn. Even Gebbia is probably a better option. Early in a QBs career they can make you look stupid. One good game, one bad game, rinse and repeat. I’ve seen flashes of brilliance and then whatever that was on Friday. All I can say for sure is he’s inconsistent, and that requires more seasoning, so if you have a more seasoned option then use it.
Oregon State 27, Cal 24 (If they can figure out the QB situation by Saturday).
First! Go Beavs!
Been off the grid for a while, but the last five minutes of that game was like watching a slow motion train wreck.
Was pretty predictable once UW got the ball last, wasn’t it?
I don’t have an issue going for it on 4th down on the first attempt. I believe Colletto’s blocker fell down. That doesn’t happen and I think he makes it.
The 2nd attempt I did not agree with. 4th and 3 sending Colletto was a bonehead call. Smith makes that call because one time Colletto busts one to the house?
Despite our kicker being a complete shit show I think you have to at least attempt the FG. Mayne he makes it. Maybe he doesn’t. Bit then again you still might come away with zero points.
Offense basically wasted a very good performance by the D. We have to find a viable option at QB. Have to.
Yeah….is the kicking game just written off for the rest of the year?!?! Kids gotta learn how to kick with a bit of wind, etc. Also why not go with a spread goal line option pass with Colletto? Roll him out in space and let him do his thing with a couple of receivers deep in the end zone to move players away from him — dude is hard to tackle in space.
Agreed. Our defense was gassed, so we were playing the classic prevent defense that let’s their offense march down the field 5-6 yards at a time. Penix orchestrated that drive perfectly and took care of the ball. Although, they did get a little greedy when they were down near the goal line. I was hoping we would pick off one of those arrogant passes.
And I still would like someone to ask Smith why Gebbia isn’t even an option.
Parker said gebbia never fully healed
He played in the Colorado game. Should have put Throckmorton in then.
he took 2 kneel downs to end the game
https://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay/_/gameId/401404020
Agree wholeheartedly with all major points, Angry.
Also, I saw at least a couple times the UW D hadn’t got setup pre-snap, and I was yelling to hike the damn ball. Kept thinking a hurry-up type offense on 3rd or 4th would work, but turned out is was the Beavs who weren’t setup, really slow, and getting dumb drive killing procedural penalties!!! To me that is on the coaches, they had two weeks to prepare!!! Same maddening shit as the years before. Lucy! You bitch!!
Don’t overlook the fact that we gave up multiple 3rd-and-long situations and 4th downs to the huskies. Reminds me of the Mark Banker defenses :/
True….in a close game like this you depend on the offense to dictate some stuff, but the defense got out-schemed on the 3rd and long all night. The players missed some easy assignments on those Prevent schemes, uncharacteristic of them, which tells me the coaches didn’t have them prepared. 3rd and 10+….oh shit! Here we go again.
ASU gametime announced. 11:15 am KO on ESPN 2
https://twitter.com/BeaverFootball/status/1589680561442152449/photo/1
If any of you are into BTS action, the algorithm AI recently informed me that Makiya Tongue is on his way to being the next YouTube sensation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDjAWoj_9u0 (A Day In The Life)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nq5xFwKvb_Y& (Colorado Game Day)
There are several interesting moments, but he might want to be a little more careful filming in the locker room (lol).
Jack Velling doesn’t seem like a fan at all.
Tyjon Lindsay is exactly who you think he is.
Elsewhere……Fraudstobal and Miami were given a 45-3 beat down on their homefield by Florida St. They now sit at 4-5 and must win 2 of their final 3 games just to get bowl eligible.
“Just wait until he gets his players in there.” Such a bad coach.
It’s interesting, Canzano put out an article yesterday showing the shitty/mediocre records of recent ex-Quack coaches when they weren’t coaching for Oregon. I remember Canzano so far up Cristobal’s ass and dismissing those of us who pointed out Mario’s 27-47 record as a head coach at FIU. Chip Kelly is 26-26 post-Oregon. I think Canzano is now saying that anyone can win at Oregon because of all of the resources.
I would agree anyone that opinion, hard to fail when you are outspending nearly all of your conference. I wonder if there is something rotten behind the scenes that keeps making the coaches leave (probably why Wilcox didn’t take the job).
Rumors have Auburn interested in Lanning
I’m sure it’s a fine job if you’re ok with the billionaire owner constantly asking you why you haven’t delivered his CFP trophy yet…
Canzano isn’t wrong. Oregon/Nike recruits itself. They could put the corpse from weekend at bernie’s in there and probably still win 7-8 games with the talent alone that the machine recruits.
Has Willie Taggart had success since he left? Has Fraudstobal?
Stoked for some Beav hoops? Of course you are. 9:00 tonight vs Tulsa.
Oh, thought you were talking about WBB. They start at 5:30 vs Hawaii
Something I forgot to mention as a big takeaway: When that (likely) TD run was blown dead because the refs thought Smith wanted to call a TO… (A) how does that ever happen? (B) Is that on Smith for not being clear? (C) If it’s on the Refs, why wasn’t the game protested? (D) Has the PAC commented at all on it? Just atrocious all around. The cameras never panned to Smith to show if he argued that or anything. It was as if that’s okay to do against the Beavs…I can’t imagine that play going the same for USC, Oregon, et al.
Yeah and the announcers blew by it too, even saying at one point “the whole defense stopped so he wouldn’t have gained all those yards anyway.” The fuck you say
Uh, no shit. The defense stopped and the offense stopped. It’s what they do when the whistle is blown.
That was pure PAC12 referee incompetence.
Ahhh yes the P12 incompetence. Before the game I was wondering what weird shit the Refs would do or come up with this time….and voila….always something new and innovative way to F-up the game.
I also can’t find that play in any highlight videos. It has conveniently found itself on the cutting room floor. Pac12 doesn’t want any acknowledgment of that debacle.
I’m not sure the Beavs can win against Cal. OSU may have more talent but I think Justin Wilcox is a smart coach, and the Bears will focus, big-time, on this game. It would define their season.
R U serious?
– a serious concern, yes.
Not Vegas, the line opened at -13.5.
2 out of 3 AL ROY candidates are Beavs. Not bad!
Cal simply outplayed us last year. I don’t know what it is but they always seem prepared to play OSU ever since Wilcox got there.
31-14 Cal
Wilcox is 3-2 vs the Beavs. Smith is 2-2 vs Cal.
Yikes
ANALYTICS, are we certain Smith uses analytics?
From his interviews I think he is just determined to be “aggressive”…..not sure any analysis involved.
Don’t get me wrong, deciding to be 100% aggressive before the game even starts is just as bad as letting a chart based on generalities dictate play calls.
At about 7:50 in today’s presser JS speaks about being aggressive, he was even more direct in the post game interview.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pflZsbKv6TM
Here’s the postgame, 3:36 talks aggression
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYx3Wm91l9w
He sure gives UW a lot of credit. No issues with our defense, UW just made some good plays. Yeah, when the offense has a guy wide open in the endzone on 3rd and 24, that’s a really good play, no way to defend that I guess.
I hate coach interviews. There’s no way they can say what they really feel because that’s going to throw his players under the bus. Mike Leach is the only coach who actually says what he feels in pressers.
IDK what was asked, but we got a nice non answer answer from JS regarding Gebbia today…………..
While Gulbranson has had moments, it’s fair to wonder: Could his current backup, Tristan Gebbia, provide more moments? Gebbia was Oregon State’s starting quarterback for the first four games of 2020 before a serious hamstring injury sidelined him for more than a year.
“The narrative is so much on Ben, but he was undefeated as a starter after three games,” Smith said. “Ben has given us the best chance to win.”
That doesn’t answer the question. At all.
https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2022/11/season-isnt-finished-for-oregon-state-quarterback-chance-nolan-he-gets-cleared-hell-get-an-opportunity.html
I would love to ask JS, ok fine, but what was Gebbia doing well when he beat out Nolan in 2020? I think you said back then that Gebbia gave you the best chance to win. What changed?
Also, Wilner is saying (reported on the Dan Patrick show this morning) that the Pac is expected to offer membership to San Diego State this week…….
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/san-diego-state-to-the-pac-12-talk-picking-up-steam/ar-AA13Qevp
Man, the WBB team sure has hit a rough patch recently huh? Not sure if Hawaii is supposed to be good but it’s a tie game with 5 min left to go. Have some high talent, young players from a recruiting perspective. Would’ve expected them to have this in control despite that. 1st game so there’s something to be said but dam.
And on to overtime for WBB.
I’m seeing a WBB win 61-60 in regulation. Is that incorrect?
It’s correct. Some confusion at the end, review ended awarding foul shots to OSU.
Hawaii lots of vets, tourney team last season.
61-60 win for Beavs.
I think they won the mountain west correct?
Hawaii was in the NCAA tournament last year and is expected to vie for the Mountain West title this year. Before I watched the game, I was under the impression that the Wahine were going to go down easily, but during the game I researched them. They shoot the 3 pretty well and spread the floor. Beavs played without two players that are expected to contribute heavily this year: Yeaney and Gardiner.
I cast the stream of the WBB to my TV — good picture but could never get the play by play. Anybody else have that problem?
Is this supposed to be a down year for USC MBB? Trailing Florida Gulf Coast by 20 points with three minutes left.
Here we go. Tulsa is on a 24-4 run. Lead the Beavs 36-19 in the first half. I think about 10 turnovers, Tulsa draining open threes. Can Big Tinks do a GA and leave gracefully without asking for a payout?
At the mens game, epic disaster to open the season. Tulsa has a new head coach and they look like a team that has figured out what they want to do. Tinkle loves to coach guys as they are running away from him. It looks like he jumps up to admonish just so the crowd is aware that he noticed what just went wrong.
Team looks like good effort but little skill again. House DJ is a bit much and kind of silly.
Prepare yourselves Beavernation, it is going to be another brutal season. I’d guess they will be lucky to get 15 wins.
15 wins!?… that would be a miracle. I’d put the o/u at 8.5 games. 15 wins gets WT an extension. At least Tinks was right when he said the teams strength would be defense. Holding Tulsa to 44 Points at the half is impressive and this team’s offense certainly won’t be a strength.
Or, this group may surprise us, Ohiobeav. Certainly surprised me, particularly with 2 potential starters out.
Who’s out?
Forget their names — picked it up in one of the pre-game articles — one of the two is supposed to be a starting guard.
Beavs looking good in the second half.
FWIW OSU men up 63-62 with 3:36 left
Seeing the shift from the first half to the second is worth a lot.
OSU men win 73-30
16 wins?
That makes them look a bit more dominant than they really are. 73-70 is the reality.
Jordan Pope is the real deal. Looked very confident for a freshman. Ryuny was a surprise. And have to mention Akanno who looked like a leader out there. Super impressive comeback there
They looked surprisingly cohesive throughout the 2nd half. Tulsa was trying to stick with a 3 guard lineup and shoot their way to a win but Beavs got a few key stops (along with a couple of swallowed whistles) to ultimately take the lead and hold on.
A couple of observations:
Good free throw shooting, only missed 2 that I remember
Balanced scoring, I think 4 in double figures
Struggled to make basic low post entry passes which accounted for most of the 1st half turnovers
Gritty team but not great shooters, Pope and Ruvnyv seem to be the most consistent
Chal will not stay in many games for long, foul prone
Tinkle has his work cut out but maybe this is a better situation than the previous group at least. They didn’t quit when they were down 23 so that is noteworthy.
Go Beavs
Um. OSU never trailed by 23. Largest lead by Tulsa was 41-22
Wow, that’s a huge comeback. Speaks volumes to the team’s mindset (at least right now). Basketball is so much a confidence game, that shouldn’t be underestimated. Winning the rebound battle
4 blocks in 16 minutes for Chol is insane.
TO number is the big negative that stands out to me. It was mentioned elsewhere we struggled with the post entry pass. Those things combined tell me we’re still missing a capable distributing PG. The fact that everyone who played more than 3 minutes had a TO is concerning.
Pope actually seems very capable and smooth as a PG. the biggest thing that stood out against last year is when we needed points last year, we would panic and Jack up poor shots. Akanno and Taylor we great at driving and drawing fouls to get to the free throw line instead of jacking up ill advised 3 pointers. The other thing is we didn’t see a ton from Bilodeau and that kid is the real deal. I think we see some ups and downs from this team because they are young, but they at least look like they could develop into a winning basketball team.
Since you actually watched the game: where did all the TO’s come from?
Sloppy first half. Some of that was due to Tulsa. They also seemed like they were trying to force the issue too much at the end of the first half to cut into the lead. But I would attribute it to the fact that it’s a young team in their first college game and they are going to have to learn that they have to make better passes in college. Honestly we went from looking terrible in the first half to looking dominant in the second half. Whatever was said at the half worked.
I think they had 9 turnovers in the first 10 min.
I watched the game. Team benefited from Tulsa missing wide open shots in second half but made FTs, took it hard to basket, defended the paint, rebounded, and took care of the ball to close it out. Pope seems to be a difference maker at PG which changes my outlook a bit. Team could win 4 games this year
Tulsa went scoreless for 5:35, and Beavs capitalized.
I rewatched a bit of the game and I came away more impressed with Ryuny. He was good defending in the post and has a quiet confidence to his game.
My basketball comment did not age well. I went to bed disillusioned at halftime and a miracle happened. I guess I can only watch the first halves the rest of the season.
Or none at all
RE OSU Football, I think the biggest question (other if any QB options can be effective going forward) is whether or not the team can focus and strive to close out for 3 wins, or if, knowing that a PAC championship is out of reach and a mediocre bowl game secure, they just start coasting until the CW. Can the D reclaim the focus it showed against the likes of USC?
I don’t see any compelling reason to watch the Cal and ASU games, neither program is anything interesting right now in terms of scheme or talent are they? CAL has lost 5 straight, which is probably not a good thing, but they are in Corvallis.
If the Beavers win the next two (which they can/should), they could demonstrate they’re focused, and the CW might be compelling viewing.
The idea of being a fan of a team and making a point to not watch their games is alien to me.
There are more productive things to spend 4 hours doing
You’re not familiar with one of the greatest inventions of the 20th century?: the DVR
I prefer not wasting my money on TV by using a streaming site
bendbeaver is saying you can cut it down to 3 hours by fast forwarding through commercials and halftime ;)
Pfft! If you’re good with the buttons it’s about an hour.
Not anymore!
I think its ok for fans to expect competent coaching and play 5 years into a regime. And if its not consistent, and predictable, to use their free time for other things.
Although, RB Ott v. Martinez may be an entertaining aspect of the game given Ott almost committed to OSU.
Tomorrow is a big day for all other sports. It’s the fall period signing day!
WBB looks like they’ll sign two in state prospects. But unlike prior classes, this one is does not include a 5 star prospect.
MBB looks like they’ll sign one. Gavin Marrs. Can’t find much on him. Looks like only a few offers from low level schools.
The big one to look for is baseball. This will be one of the most highly rated classes to sign and very top heavy. 3 top 100 recruits. Whether they get to campus is another question.
Marrs looks like a 6’11 version of the typical WT recruit: good athlete and good defender with “developing” offensive skills.
Jarod Lucas finished 4/17 in his first game with Nevada. When he was on he served his purpose but that’s a lot of missed shots.
That NIL money not paying out a great ROI so far, it would seem
Democracy ended last night. Woe is me.
Pretty flaccid “red wave”.
Good news is that no matter who you vote for, the US will be crippled by interest on debt in 2025
You’re telling me if we keep cutting taxes the debt gets worse?
Increased spending is much more relevant
All we need to do is just keep printing money. It will be fine.
Let us know when voters want budget cuts.
… and we’ve circled back to my original comment
The swamp monsters strike back. Blue/Red their all the same. Inside the beltway it doesn’t really matter if you’re a dim or a repub. They all cash in, and only cash out when they die.
Enjoy Portland do you. Let’s turn all of America into a replica of Portland. Fucking Oregonians are so fucking stupid.
Dims forever. Never learn.
Poor dumb bastards, but you’ve earned it and deserve it.
Best line I read so far, “Light spotting”
Smith sticks by his 4th down aggressiveness and won’t be changing any time soon:
https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2022/11/oregon-state-football-loss-of-some-goals-hasnt-changed-thirst-for-success-smith-stands-by-fourth-down-calls.html
Colletto has some healthy comments in this article.
Smith is choosing stubbornness over intelligence. It’s pretty clear that he isn’t using analytics at all, whether it’s general probability or even analyzing the current situation and or tendencies. He made up his mind when he took the job: we’re going to be a team who goes for it on 4th down, that’s our brand. Even if it costs us 1-2 games per year, at least we have an identity!
Ugh. Sad but true. We have an 80IQ coach who thinks he’s a math wiz.
That was my point two days ago, but you may have said it better.
oob 11-7:
ANALYTICS, are we certain Smith uses analytics?
From his interviews I think he is just determined to be “aggressive”…..not sure any analysis involved.
Don’t get me wrong, deciding to be 100% aggressive before the game even starts is just as bad as letting a chart based on generalities dictate play calls.
Yep, you nailed it OOB.
The really frustrating part about the Gambler is he overall is doing a good job building a cohesive staff, bringing in decent recruits, keeping the team unified, etc. It is just this one piece that is out of place keeping the program from something better. The problem with gambling is you eventually start to lose things… like the team, staff, recruits, etc.
This one piece being a legit D1 quarterback?
Okay, two pieces lol.
Just to play devils advocate here,
But what if you have a kicker who can’t make kicks other than an xp?
The Washington game had two opportunities that were same distance basically as extra kicks.
If the gambling all season was related strictly to kicking then that would certainly be a likely explanation. I think the concern goes beyond the windy game in Seattle.
Absolutely… second year in a row where games were gambled away.
No issue with the gambling. Issue is the qb play-whether recruiting or not- the qb play is the one peice that is holding the team back.
Smith had a mid level Pac-12 qb and Beavs are 8-1
If you have a mid-level QB you don’t gamble. Duh. Again, the reason 4th down stats are skewed toward going for it is that the teams with good talent go for 4th downs and routinely make it. They don’t make it because it’s 4th down. They make it because they have legitimate QBs (and other talent). Until the math wizes at OSU realize this we’re screwed with the 80IQ decisions. Luckily fans are coming along slowly to the problem. I IDd this as a problem after the Nevada game. Smart coaches don’t make those decisions.
What if you have a below mid level kicker/special ed special teams? And weather is a consideration?
The past few years the excuse (i.e. benefit of the doubt) was that he didn’t have a defense. At some point we have to admit the reality of what we have.
A 7-8 win program
Won’t ever be more because the media, a larhe portion of the fan base and powers that be are happy with that.
Ya know what? I’d be happy with it too. If maybe, idk once every 8-10 fucking years they could actually catch lightning in a bottle and HAVE an epic 10 or 11 win season.
This is also no longer possible with the changed landscape in CFB. The window has closed.
I’ve accepted that I’ll probably go to my grave having never seen Oregon St play in the rose bowl on new years day.
Sucks. But it’s reality. And there’s more important things in life than football.
You can overcome weakness in some areas by being strong in others. If we had a stable QB situation, we would still be talking about the Rose Bowl.
I think we’re a good transfer QB away from being a conference contender next year, but I have no confidence in Lindgren’s ability to bring one in.
Why is it Lindgren’s job, and not Smith’s, to bring in a QB? At the least they should both be trying to do this.
I wonder if they should bring in a QB specialist to address their apparent weaknesses.
It would also be helpful given Lindrgren’s stated interest in HC opportunities.
Oh, and how about a psychologist. For Smith and his gambling issue….
I’m sure they both do, I’m just singling Lindgren out because he’s the QB coach and supposedly the lead QB recruiter.
Chiles is supposed to be a good one, is he the one?
Based on his film, he has great tools, but he’s a ‘throw to the primary receiver or scramble’ guy and will probably need some time to adjust to the PAC.
I have no doubts that we win both games on the way to the Civil War, but our QB situation, gamblin’ JS, kicking game, and odd play calling by Lindgren have me believing that we can’t beat the Ducks, who will have PAC 12 officiating on their side. A bowl game would be fun to watch later, but I have to cut certain costs and the streaming service needs to go.
I’ll follow the discussion because y’all are entertaining to read- even the fella that told me to fuck off.
Hope all goes well for everybody heading into the holidays.
Welcome to the club
Hey BeaverGopher, saw this:
“17 – Consecutive games Minnesota running back Mohamed Ibrahim has run for 100 yards or more.”
Yeah, he is a great back. Only missing the top gear to be a true superstar. As good of vision as I have ever seen from a RB and when he seems to be stopped cold, he gets another yard or two. What sucks is the Quacks bought off his backup with NIL money and Irving is now their #1 Rb. That would have been a hell of RB tandem.
NOTE: According to the Beavers schedule, the Cal game is at Reser. The heading for this thread makes it look like OSU is @ CAL.
I don’t know if the three day weekend will help or hurt attendance for a 6:00 pm game? Hopefully it helps.
https://osubeavers.com/sports/football/schedule
The “draft network” with a very positive review of Alex Austin:
https://thedraftnetwork.com/alex-austin-oregon-state-2023-nfl-draft/
Yet people think Smith should bench him lmao
I was one of them. I think of him as boom or bust, but am happy to be persuaded otherwise with examples.
Are Austin and Harrison step brothers? :)
They have been doing karate in the garage…
I am as well. I just don’t see it. He’s not been good. I’m sure he has the physical stature that nfl scouts like but his on the field play has been less than stellar.
He knows the scheme, makes open field tackles, and has pretty good ball skills.
There’s not another corner on the roster besides Wright who can play man coverage as well as he can.
A few comments from afar:
A few years ago the OSU AD was something like the 3rd highest paid AD in the PAC. I believe it was this AD that hired JS for some big bucks.
On the JS topic I was a lone voice saying OSU should offer JS a salary that would be paid of a newbie coach. Something under $1M and use the rest of the money to improve the facility and for top notch assistants.
It’s also very interesting how angry came down on those of us that were sharing links of websites that carried OSU games. And now the shoe is on the other foot. :-: My, my now the shoe is on the other foot, eh?
What the actual fuck are you talking about?
OSU is pissing money away big time by overpaying the AD and the football coach. Is that clear enough for you?
Also, I couldn’t help but take a shot at angry because he shit all over us way back in the days where he had easy access to Beaver broadcasts and now he’s scrambling trying to find access to the games.
Under a million? And I thought I wrote dumb stuff in here.
So 40% less than what Boise pays their coach.
Welp, we’re trying to play with the big boys now. Article up on the Oregonian website goes into more detail.
https://www.damnationcollective.com/
Scott Sanders and some other alumni also started Giantkillersnil.com , Beavs will never be able to compete with Phil Knight, or aTm boosters at least there is an effort to not become completely irrelevant.
On the Giantkillers and NIL, as posted earlier:
https://www.kerryeggers.com/stories/its-beaver-fever-at-jim-fisher-volvo-and-everyone-has-a-good-time
This is pretty sweet
https://twitter.com/BeaverFootball/status/1590830209175293952?t=qtUEQmR-u7o80Yn5PJs5_w&s=19
Damn I need to remember not to not read Twitter comments.
Anyone have insight on the new baseball recruits? Apologies if it’s been discussed before and I missed it.
The top of the class is very good. You can find a lot of the highlights on twitter or youtube.
These three are in the top 100 for HS recruits –
Trent Caraway – High school SS but probably ends up at 3B or RF. Maybe 1B because of his size. Had a good showing at the area code games this summer. That is an invite only prospect camp so its the best vs the best.
Paul Wilson – LHP – Local kid so he’ll probably end up being pretty good. Potential to build into a power arm.
James DeCremer – RHP with lightning in his arm. Revs it up into the high 90s. Wild mechanics but his stuff is hard to hit. Also had a good showing at the area code games. 2 innings, 6 Ks.
I am feeling that there is a good shot at all three making it to campus. College players are slowly taking over the draft pushing out the fringy high school prospects. The draft is shorter and there’s less minor league teams with spots to fill. Only Caraway is a potential high draft pick but not in the first two rounds. I could see any one of them taking an overslot bonus like one the commits last year did.
This could be a potential foundation building class. Where you find 3-4 three year all conference starters.
You can check the team Twitter page for signees.
I hadn’t noticed the 2023 schedule is already out.
There’s a glaring omission from it. I only see one mid week civil war game in Corvallis.
https://osubeavers.com/sports/baseball/schedule
Seems like a move to get easier weekday games on the schedule. While midweek vs Oregon is great for fans, it’s basically adding 3 conference games to both teams.
RPI booster but both teams don’t really need it as long as they don’t lose the weekday game.
Three? Only been playing a pair of non conference civil war games.
CBS Pick’Em is up for this week, thanks NiceBeavsr!
Two Friday games this time.
The Hammer beginning to pull away from the pack.
WBB streaming now.
https://pac-12.com/live/oregon-state-university
I think the 4th down issue has been beaten to death for the year. Smith isn’t going to change much in when he goes for 4th down.
Onto the Cal game,
Vegas doesn’t think much of Cal on the road seeing them as a two TD underdog. Cal has lost 5 in a row and has not won on the road and lost to Colorado.
BUT if you look at the last 5 games, their offense has scored more points in each game. Obviously that means their defense has worsened each game too. What does that mean? Not much. Vs a team like the Beavs, it’s a bad matchup for them. Their run game has fallen down after a breakout performance by the one time almost commit Jaydn Ott. He’s had two great games but hasn’t done much in their last 5 games.
It’s a very similar matchup to WSU’s offense but Cal has worse WRs and a better RB.
On offense, the Beavs will be able to run like they have been all year. Can they find someone to pass the ball effectively? If Nolan is healthy, I do see him getting the start and if not, he’ll get significant action.
Cal stays in this game if the Beavs get sloppy with the ball. Otherwise, it’ll be a workmanlike effort. It’ll be a hard game for the Beavs to cover unless Cal completely rolls over.
And the weather will be very cold, Cal defenders are really going to feel the sting late in the game.
“Texas is really back after beating TCU
TCU has been one of the more incredible stories of the 2022 college football season, ripping off a 9-0 start under first-year coach Sonny Dykes to rise all the way to No. 4 in the coaches poll and the College Football Playoff rankings. The magic finally runs out Saturday when the Horned Frogs travel to No. 18 Texas for a night game at what should be a raucous Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. This is the type of game the Longhorns should win in Year 2 under Steve Sarkisian if the program is to be taken seriously again – and I think they do it as everyone proclaims Texas “back” for the millionth time since 2009. — Jace Evans.”
Dykes sure turned things around quickly. I like the barb at the end of the paragraph. The problem is though, the national narrative is “see, we told you Texas would be back!” Say it every year, and 13 years later you might be right…
WEEK 11: PHIL STEELE REPORT
California leads the series 39-35 and have won 5 of the last 8 SU & ATS. Last time here (‘20) a back-and-forth game with three 4Q lead changes was decided by a blocked punt with 5:26 remaining resulting in a 31-27 California loss as a 3-point AF. The home team has won 4 of the last 6 SU & ATS. Last year Beavers (-1’) turned the ball over 3 times and allowed a blocked punt enroute to a 39-25 loss which is the third straight outright upset in series (Oregon State had pulled the previous 2). California opened 3-1 SU with a win over Arizona at home but then dropped their next 4 Pac-12 games by 13 ppg and were -122 ypg. Last week they were +21’ on the road and USC was without WR’s Addison and Williams. California led 7-0 and QB Plummer threw for 406 yds. Cal was SOD at the 23 and intercepted at the 50 and USC drove 50/5 for a TD with :47 left and led 20-7 at halftime. USC led 34-14 then California drove 92/8 for a TD, recovered an onside kick and drove 52/10 for another TD to close to 34-27. USC drove 77/6 for a TD with 5:34 left, leading 41-27. California drove 85/12 for another TD with 2:31 left to close it to 41-35. USC on 3&5, QB Williams’ 15 yd run for a FD let them run out the clock, but they only had a 515-469 yd edge. Oregon State opened 6-2 with a 3-point home loss to USC and then with backup QB Gulbranson lost at Utah by 26. After 3 straight P12 wins Oregon State was +4’ at Washington last week and had blustery winds which affected the pass and kick games. A partial power outage stopped the game for 25 minutes early 4Q. Oregon State was playing its first game as a ranked team s/2013. Wash had a 398-262 yd edge. Oregon State opened driving 75/9 for a TD, then drove 63/12 before getting SOD at the 7, and then Washington’s punter dropped the snap at the 33 and Oregon State was SOD at the 15. Washington drove 85/15 for a TD but Oregon State got 37 yd IR TD with 1:10 left to lead 14-7 at halftime. Washington drove 66/9 for a TD with 11:36 left to tie the score, 21-21. Washington punted, then drove 92/18 and with 1&G at the 2 settled for a 22 yd FG with :08 left, for a 24-21 win. Oregon State is +20 ypg in Pac-12 play and California is -79 ypg. Justin Wilcox is 16-5 ATS as an AD but traveling a second straight week. Oregon State is 10-1 SU & 11-0 ATS at home the last 2 years.
OREGON STATE 34 CALIFORNIA 16
POSITION BY POSITION EDGES
WHEN CALIFORNIA HAS THE BALL:
California QB/WR’s vs Oregon State DB’s: ORST +1.07
California RB’s vs Oregon State LB’s: ORST +1.11
California OL vs Oregon State DL: ORST +0.83
WHEN OREGON STATE HAS THE BALL:
Oregon State QB/WR’s vs California DB’s: ORST +0.79
Oregon State RB’s vs California LB’s: ORST +0.61
Oregon State OL vs California DL: ORST +0.88
MISCELLANEOUS
Special Teams: ORST +1.25
Kicking: CAL +0.30
Coaching Staff: Even
POSITIONAL EDGE AWARDED TO: ORST +6.23
PROJECTED BOX SCORE (CAL-ORST)
Projected Rushing: 89-178
Projected Passing: 228-267
Projected Yardage Total: 317-445
Projected Final Score: 18-30
Experience Rankings: 127-22
Team Schedule Strength. 41-37
Las Vegas Line: Oregon State by 14
Las Vegas Total: 49 Points
+/- Ratings: Oregon State by 20.5
Game Grade: Oregon State by 11.6
Computer Points: Oregon State 30-18
Spreadsheet Prediction: Oregon State by 13.5
OTHER PAC-12 SCORE PREDICTIONS
USC 48 Colorado 17
Utah 42 Stanford 17
Washington State 30 Arizona State 20
Oregon 45 Washington 27
UCLA 49 Arizona 27
Gulbranson passes for 267? Umm, I’ll take the under. Not happening
“Oregon State is 10-1 SU & 11-0 ATS at home the last 2 years.” 10-1 at home the last two years, nice.
Hasn’t it been a while since he assigned the Beavers the advantage at all position groups (kicking excepted). Maybe Montana State?
That’s unknown since position breakdowns aren’t available for FBS/FCS matchups, but maybe! And that one loss, you know we got hosed…
I found this to be a good read: https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2022/11/oregon-state-mailbag-jonathan-smith-and-fourth-down-blues-is-chance-nolan-back-this-season.html
Shows me that AngryBeavs aren’t the only ones upset at the gambler. Nick Daschel doesn’t think Nolan will be back until the bowl game.
“Daschel doesn’t think Nolan will be back until the bowl game”
And then what? Put in a kid who hasn’t played in months? yuck.
Sidebar: Band is preparing parade marching in case beavs make Rose Bowl, better to be prepared than not, I suppose, but uh, yeah, that’s not in the cards.
Yeah, a lot of fans don’t agree with the gambling, especially when it fails. Daschel is countering the argument of taking the FGs with the “what if” UW just scored a TD on the last drive. That’s irrelevant because JS did not have a crystal ball that told him UW would drive 90 yds on the final series of the game. Besides, if you remember, UW DID try to score a TD in the redzone. They threw three passes to try to punch it in, and the Beavs stopped them. Again, you don’t have the luxury of knowing any of that at the time the decision is made.
been offline most of the last week. is the UW game worth going back and viewing?
Surprised ticket prices are still relatively high for the Cal game after taking another L last week.
Was hoping to catch some cheap ones and take my son to the game tomorrow
There’s always a guy posted up between Reser and Gill hawking tickets if you get desperate.
If i lived closer i’d take my chances but will try to track down some tix before hitting the road. Thx for the suggestion
Is 6’4″ 200 lb Sam Dunnil(sp?) being recruited as a WR? See he has an offer from Coach Blue Adams…
OT: Phil still can’t buy a winner/natty, Kotek managed to beat both gubernatorial candidates he dumped millions on.
Phuck Phil Knight.
Maybe he’s just not a very good investor. He should just stick to making waffles.
MBB with the Yin and Yang start. Pope gets a steal, passes to a wide open Glen Taylor who then travels while going for a flashy dunk.
Pope is spectacular. Excellent passer. Good shooter. Pesky defender. Good with the handle. Smooth. Also, Andela is such a massive returning piece for us. Just a tough veteran at both ends.
Game thread set to go up at 5pm.
I see the hoops team looked rather pedestrian against a bad team. Won by 17. Oregon and Portland had both blown them out by 35+.
Speaking of UO, got blasted on their home floor by UC Irvine last next.
Still better than not winning those kind of games. If you really want to play the comparison game, FAMU scored more on Nike than they did on us. We just don’t have a lot of offensive firepower (and only 3 healthy guards on the roster!) so we’re going to have to be good in every other facet to win games. The lack of a significant rebounding advantage in this game is a bit concerning.
For sure, they are highly likely to match their win total from last season with their next game against NAIA Bushnell.
I’ll get excited about hoops when they beat Duke in a few weeks.
Every game is its own individual entity. Comparing how OSU fared vs a team against how Oregon or Portland fared vs the same team has no relevance to OSU.
Portland beat them by more than Oregon did. Does that mean Portland is better than Oregon?
Family weekend at OSU this weekend. Don’t forget to get your zumba in before the game!
https://families.oregonstate.edu/sites/families.oregonstate.edu/files/ffw_22_schedule_v3.docx.pdf
What happened to ‘Dad’s weekend’ and ‘mom’s weekend’? Back when you could count on dads taking the family out and having to pay for everything dads weekend…and on moms weekend the moms all at the bars with their tits out hitting on frat dudes.
A quick note on the “other football”. Men’s soccer beat the #1 ranked Huskies yesterday and gave UW their first loss of the season. Strong possibility the Beavs get a Top 16 seed now. Yes, I follow to some degree with my oldest being a college soccer player (JC level).
Way to go soccer nerds
Sweet
31-17 beavs
Yogi Roth talks about potential defensive players of the year in this short video. While no individual Beavers make the list, he does at the end call out the entire OSU Secondary, and declares them the best in the PAC.
https://pac-12.com/videos/yogi-roths-top-candidates-pac-12-defensive-player-year