11.Jun.2012 Key Games This Fall

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I went down to the crossroads, fell down on my knees.
Asked the Lord above for mercy, "Save me if you please." –Robert Johnson

There's been a lot of "gallow's humor" surrounding Riley's Bad News Beavs. Even the old guard is getting balky (or is that their knees from having to stand up at games?). With each passing year of bowl ineligibility, a potential buyout becomes that much easier. While next season likely isn't make or break for Joe Paterno, West Coast edition, it could be with another Civil War loss.

These are the games I find most interesting:

Nicholls State: I hear they run an effective spread, and are well aware of Sacramento State's upset. Why the game is interesting: Mark Banker's job is on the line, and the Beavers need redemption after last year's opener that made National news for all the wrong reasons.

Wisconsin: Assuming the Beavs take care of Nicholls State (big assumption), they get a depleted Badger team at home. If they can win the Rodent Bowl Redux, Riley is probably safe no matter what happens the rest of the way. Fans will misinterpret the win as massive improvement. Any time Riley's criticized thereafter, the Pollyannas will boast that Riley beat a Big 10 school, so he must be on the right track. A loss is expected, so it won't hurt Riley et al.

@UCLA: Bold prediction for next year: The Beavs will play in the Rose Bowl! Oh wait…

Mora Jr. is young and cocky, a trend in this league. It'll be interesting to see how ol' Riley stands up against him. The new Pac-12–no country for old men?

@Arizona: Mark Banker's job will be on the line once again. Can he stop two spread offenses? A better question is: why would we think he could?

Washington State: Mike Leach, the guy Beaver fans said would never coach at OSU, now coaches for OSU's doppelganger. Even without his own recruits, I think Leach will win this game and possibly big. Beavs simply have not shown they can stop an efficient short passing game. This is probably the most interesting game on the schedule. Beav fans are going to be left wondering "what if" as they soak in the loss.

@BYU: Again, the coaching discrepancy is what makes this game interesting. Bronco will have his boys fired up and taking what's given. Master game planning and a mobile QB should dissect the Beavs and expose their coaches.

@Oregon: Chip Kelly, who I believe is the best coach in college football, will steamroll Riley and Banker once again. That much is a given. Riley will never beat Chip. This is not news or a bold prediction. What makes this game interesting is the post-game. Will five straight Civil War defeats finally be enough for the old Pollyannas?

Predicted victories: Nicholls State, Utah, Stanford, California. Swing games: UCLA, Washington, Arizona State.

Predictions subject to change following fall camp, but this spring wasn't promising. Keep an eye on Chris Brown; he could be a season changer.

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  • NCAA_viOlation NCAA_viOlation says:
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    Golden Nugget casino released their early Vegas odds for next year. Here are the OSU conference predictions. Follow the link for all of the major conferences. They’ve got us favored in 2 games (WSU and ASU) by a whopping combined 9 pts. Interesting they have us playing Oregon closer than Stanford. Glad we don’t have USC in the mix.

    http://beyondthebets.com/2012/06/06/never-too-early-college-football-point-spread-projections-for-all-798-regular-season-games/

    *Keep in mind: There are a handful of coin flip games that could go either way. Obviously, a team like Oregon State—which is listed as an underdog of seven points or less four times—could easily make that 2-7 record much more respectable.

    WEEK 4
    Oregon State at UCLA -7

    WEEK 5
    Oregon State at Arizona -2

    WEEK 6
    Washington State at Oregon State -2.5

    WEEK 7
    BYE

    WEEK 8
    Utah -4.5 at Oregon State

    WEEK 9
    Oregon State at Washington -13.5

    WEEK 10
    Arizona State at Oregon State -6.5

    WEEK 11
    Oregon State at Stanford -17.5

    WEEK 12
    California -4 at Oregon State

    WEEK 13
    Oregon -14.5 at Oregon State

    • angry angry says:
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      Wow, Oregon is a 4TD favorite four times, and is favored in every game except USC. The divide between Oregon and OSU is amazing. Fans have accepted it and blamed money. It’s more than money. Washington State is going to prove that over the next few years. Can’t wait for them to teach the excuse makers that lesson.

      Also, David Shaw is going to be exposed this year.

      • bone says:
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        clearly it is more than just the money, but the money helps quite a bit.

      • bendbeaver bendbeaver says:
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        Is your beef with Shaw that he hasn’t proven himself? Offense under him was no slouch.

        • angry angry says:
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          He had the #1 pick playing QB. Harbaugh instilled a mentally in those guys, and many are moving on. Shaw is weak and will be exposed.

          • WFO WFO says:
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            Agree 100%.

            They’ll be back to 7-8 win ceiling within a season or two.

          • bendbeaver bendbeaver says:
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            Even if they keep getting top recruiting classes?

          • angry angry says:
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            Gotta be able to motivate them. I don’t see Shaw doing it. We’ll see.

          • WFO WFO says:
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            See: Tedford,Jeff.

      • rsteve503 rsteve503 says:
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        Money has little to do with it. Right now UO has a hugely better coach. Before that, with Riley apparently working a little harder than he is now, OSU was on par with UO in football.

        The coincidence of Riley losing energy/will, and UO getting Kelley, created the huge gap there is now. Early last dacade it didnt exist.

      • EugeneBeaver says:
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        “Washington State is going to prove that over the next few years. Can’t wait for them to teach the excuse makers that lesson.”

        Pull your head out of Leach’s ass for a minute and do your research on him.
        1) He played in a conference in which they played 8 conference games. That gave him a chance to schedule (as he did) 4 cup cake home games each year. At WSU he will only be able to schedule 3 OOC games and due to our agreement with the Big 10, at best he can schedule 2 cupcake games.
        2) Compare Leach’s conference record to Riley’s conference record. Not much different?

        Leach has accomplished NOTHING more then Riley has. I’d argue his accomplished much, much less given the fact his location in Texas and the fact he’s put far less players into the NFL.

        Hate on Riley, no issues there. Get over the fact that you think Leach is going to turn WSU into a power house. In 2-3 years they might be a 6-8 win team. He isn’t going to set the Pac12 on fire.

  • Grape says:
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    OT:
    Ducks lose 7-6 to the Flashes to end their season at the Super Regional.

    • NCAA_viOlation NCAA_viOlation says:
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      What? they’re playing live right now in the bottom of the 4th. Down 2-0 to Kent State so far in today’s game. It’s not over yet.

      • Beavergopher Beavergopher says:
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        Angrybeavs connection. Older sister who is a former Oregon State prof., is an associate dean at Kent State. Go Golden Flashes.

  • VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
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    lol @ Rodent Bowl

  • Beavergopher Beavergopher says:
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    Not to get all technical on you Angry, but Badgers are weasels, not rodents. We call them the Skunks in BIG 10 land.

    Rodent Bowl is in 2117——-Beavers vs Gophers!

  • Beavergopher Beavergopher says:
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    I hate the Ducks!

    • NCAA_viOlation NCAA_viOlation says:
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      Just tied it up at 2,top of the 8th.

      • NCAA_viOlation NCAA_viOlation says:
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        Kent st in bottom of 9th wins!

        • NCAA_viOlation NCAA_viOlation says:
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          Ducks left fielder loses fly ball in the sun and botches what should have been an easy out. Goodbye UO baseball. You werent as good as you thought.

          • angry angry says:
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            But all this means is once again, as OSU fans, we’re left rooting against the Ducks rather than for the Beavers.

  • bendbeaver bendbeaver says:
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    You said the Spring wasn’t promising. Besides depth issues, what did you see that wasn’t promising?

    • angry angry says:
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      Mannion threw a boat load of interceptions
      Players got in trouble
      No spring game/poor marketing
      No new play makers/game changers on either side of the ball, especially DT, RB, and CB/S
      Offensive line was patchwork again
      Fans weren’t into spring at all…shows apathy toward the program
      Punting situation still looks like a mess

      etc.

      Hardly looked like a team ready to dominate (or even compete for) the North.

      • Beavergopher Beavergopher says:
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        But other than that, it’s all good! I could see us losing ever game other than the opener. There will be very little room for error due to a questionable running game.

      • bendbeaver bendbeaver says:
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        I would agree with your first one as a concern of mine as I was hoping for improved accuracy. You could always say the defense has the advantage, though.
        Players getting in trouble happens to just about every team.
        Would’ve preferred a spring game, but I see it as minor. I’m apathetic toward fan apathy.
        O-line will probably take some time to get it together in the fall.
        I didn’t hear anything really negative or positive about the punting.
        A new game changer would be nice to see in the fall. I think there’s a good likelihood of that.

        I’m not sure all the other teams had a beautiful spring, either. You think the Cougs will win big, but after reading more on them, I’m not sold.

    • Fightingbeaver says:
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      How about Mike Riley, Mike Riley, Mike Riley and oh……Mike Riley.

  • Beavergopher Beavergopher says:
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    Jeff Spicoli pitching for the Quacks.

  • Beavergopher Beavergopher says:
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    Flashes win!

  • angry angry says:
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    Hey Beavergopher, I just emailed you. Check it, buddy.

  • Fightingbeaver says:
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    I’ll be shocked if OSU gets 4 wins this season. I see little change and all Mike Riley will do is either blame poor execution by his team or some other reason for losing games. OSU is up against growing and hungry teams this year. More so than ever, because they want to beat the Ducks. I believe Pac 12 teams playing OSU is just part of their training. What a reputation to have…….thanks to the poor coaching of Mike Riley and staff.

    • bendbeaver bendbeaver says:
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      Really, you’ll be shocked? When they’re at 4 wins, please post on here how shocked you are.

  • rsteve503 rsteve503 says:
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    Yep….the tale will be told in game 1…… If I were Nichols State, I would be aiming for that game as a winnable one.

    And just about every team in the conference except maybe Cal could be on an upswing.

    Yeah, our apathy is appropriate. It will take a miracle for this to be a bowling season. This year Mike Riley will be yawning while we are getting whupped.

  • issaquahbeav says:
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    I really want to think the Beavs can return to the 7+ wins a year threshold, but until there is evidence of consistent, improved play on the field, it’s hard to imagine. I do think WSU is overhyped, as it will take some time for the players to figure out how to play in the system.

    • Fightingbeaver says:
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      I don’t believe WSU is overhyped. The Cougs new coach is know for his ability to get his players up to par fast, like most great coaches. Unlike MR, champion aspiring college football coaches tell their team what he wants them to do with no if’s, and’s or buts. I am tired of hearing media explain away why it takes Beavers 4 or more games to start getting their act together. Winning coaches get their team ready for their first game play, using pre-season games for fine tuning.

      • bone says:
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        Mike Leach is a very good coach, but he isn’t a championship winning coach.

        • Fightingbeaver says:
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          I believe I stated “champion aspiring” coach. That means the coach aspires or sets his goals to a division championship and beyond. For you information, MR in past pre season interviews with media has indicated that if Beavs fall in middle of Pac or we get a toilet bowl……goals that will make him happy. What message do these goals send to your team……fans.

          • bone says:
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            Here is an interview I found a fairly recent interview from last season. It’s quite lengthy, but here are the 4 points I got that outline Riley’s goals as a coach and for the football program.

            1. His biggest goal as a coach is preparing his players for their future, turning them into respectable men, employees, fathers…
            2. It was made clear that he is trying to win a championship and working to sustain that success.
            3. He loves coaching especially for OSU.

            maybe I have missed the interviews where his goal is to make it to a “toilet bowl” or fall in the middle of the PAC. could you enlighten me with some examples?

          • bone says:
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            whoops forgot the link

          • angry angry says:
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            He sounds like he’d rather be a surrogate father than coach.

          • bone says:
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            I guess that is one of the ways he sells the program.

          • angry angry says:
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            I guess. But being a dad is a full time job in itself. Does Riley have any sons? I think just a daughter, right? If so, I wonder if these guys are all the sons he never had.

          • bone says:
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            Yeah that may be true. But I don’t think that is a bad quality to have as head football coach at the college level, there will be recruits that like that quality, but also parents of the players will like it.

          • EugeneBeaver says:
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            He has a son

  • beavers4life says:
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    I think that Mike Riley is too old fashioned for a progressive league he’s coaching in. Also, you have to remember that Riley’s system is complicated with the whole playbook used, but you don’t want to overload your quarterback and hurt line to learn and run plays unless you know they can be executed perfectly. It’s an NFL system Riley uses and not many rookie quarterbacks can produce wins as a starter in this type of system. So without a good offensive line, we’ll be just as bad ad last year, if not worse.

    • bendbeaver bendbeaver says:
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      But won’t the o-line be better this year. And Mannion wont be a rookie. Therefore, using your logic, the team will be better, not worse.

      • beavers4life says:
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        Is o-line better this year? Also, yes, mannion isn’t a rookie, but he’s also struggling it appears. So until mannion gets the offense, he will continue to struggle. Also, I don’t look at practice production. I look at game experience and athleticism. Right now, I’m optimistic with a side of doubtful. I’m optimistic they will be bette in some ways, but doubtful that they will be mentally prepared to do what it takes to win games.

      • rsteve503 rsteve503 says:
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        What sign is there that it will be better? There were not enough live bodies to have a spring game, so how can one think they will be better. Oh, lawd…… give me a SIGN!!

        ….and logic?? Where does that come into play? Mannion better in his soph year? Right, Katz was sure better with a year of experience……OH, WAIT!! .,…sheeit….the dude got demoted after his year of experience…

        ….please……a SIGN!!

  • BeavMonkey says:
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    “Chip Kelly, who I believe is the best coach in college football”

    This is almost obvious. Chip Kelly has little competition in terms of the best offense in the country. He made a clown like Blount look like a good RB.

    He made a speedster who lacks several major qualities a heisman candidate.

    Kelly is really remarkable, and he can be learned from. He just gets it.

    • oneoldbeav says:
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      “he can be learned from”…Exactly !!

      And the lessons don’t even have to include the offensive system to be worthwhile. Goal setting, eliminating distractions, and pressing any advantage you have are all applicable to practically any endeavor or football system. Even the pro-set.

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