21.Jan.2013 Calm Before the Storm, or Problems Solved?

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This could be a headline for the U.S. Stock Market, right?

Many in the finance community believe the worst is behind us and that the Federal Reserve's spending spree has literally papered over the problems. Others feel the worst is yet to come either when bond yields inevitably rise or severe inflation hits from said money printing. Note: ** there are the astute who realize severe 'hidden inflation' is already upon us in the decreased size and/or quality of goods, but that's an observation for a different blog.

In  many ways this debate of whether the worst is behind us or the worst is yet to come reminds me of OSU football. Many fans believe 2010 and 2011 were aberrations. Others believe 2012 was the aberration, and last year was simply the eye of the storm.

So I ask you this: is the program "stable"? Why or why not?

Personally, I think things are stable for now. The problems of 2010 and 2011 were largely due to recruiting failures and player defects between 2006 and 2007 after Jim Gilstrap passed away. They also had to do with depth. Riley would not have the team going 100% in spring and fall practices because he could not afford injuries. When the season started, players weren't physically or mentally ready. These problems took too long to address (shocker), but they have been addressed with the addition of Gunderson and improved coaching/recruiters. Also in Riley's favor is that next year's schedule looks weak (Eastern Washington, Hawaii, Utah, San Diego State, Colorado, Washington State, Cal)…the Beavs could conceivably be 7-0 again. The schedule is back loaded with Stanford, USC, ASU, and Oregon, so is the trend now to start fast and then fade? This leads me to believe the program is stable, and the Pollyannas will have a good run.

With regard to the stock market, I can't say the same for the bulls. It appears to be a house of cards where primary dealers are the last and only buyers. I'd sell high despite the dollar dilution.
 

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  • ObjCritic says:
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    I think things are stable, but that similar to your market analogy, perception is a huge factor, as people often make their perception become their reality. The perception factor has a chance to contribute to stability/slow progress.

    Despite the stumbles down the stretch, OSU has a pretty positive image right now. The current recruiting class is turning out to be impressive after a very slow start. If the incoming DTs can pick things up quickly, and the CB’s remain stable, Poyer-less, but improve in depth, the RB’s improve, WRs are looking good, TEs stable/good, O-line definitely improving. LB depth and QB remain question marks. I think a run heavy team could go 7-0 next year. The continuing positive impression OSU could have on potential recruits would encourage stability/slow improvement and OSU should be able to focus on the LBs and high school D lineman, and continue to add O lineman.

    Agreed the big leap needed now is a legitimate OC who diverse ideas and critically and proactively challenges Riley.

    • angry angry says:
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      Will the upswing get better or top out with 9 wins/Alamo Bowl?
      I think that’s a natural follow up. And I have a much harder time answering that one.

      • Bill says:
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        If the athletic dept decides to really start getting in the arms race, then I can foresee a 11 win BCS season.

        The new TV contract should make the athletic dept solvent, potentially turning a profit due to the small size of the dept compared to others in the pac12. They still have a few million to pay back to the university. The last I heard was 4 million or around that level.

        So there is money to spend without tapping out donors.

        One caveat – the new recruiting rules that were just approved do not favor OSU so unless Riley produces a couple back to back 10 win seasons, it’ll be tough to land upper tier recruits.

        • angry angry says:
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          I need to go over the rules. Do you have a link?
          Or a synopsis as to why they hinder OSU?

          • hhh says:
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            because they allow for more contact and osu doesn’t have the resources to take advantage of it like other schools.

          • Jack says:
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            Yeah… we don’t have phones or computers.

          • pa says:
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            you’re a fucking idiot. Did you read the rule changes?

            This means we are allowed to send more people out (which means? Oh crap, we gotta send out Bruce Read and Langsdorf as recruiters to stay competitive – no more hiding them) and spend more RESOURCES contacting recruits to remain competitive..

            Stick to basketball dude.

          • Jack says:
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            So you’re saying that schools who don’t spend wisely are at a disadvantage, not that it has anything to do with these rules?

          • Bill says:
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            It’s not they don’t have the resources, it’s that they don’t have the mentality of recruiting 24/7 like the SEC schools do.

          • bendbeaver bendbeaver says:
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            I’m going to fly an airplane over Bill’s house when he’s mowing his yard, then we’ll see.

          • Jack says:
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            Sounds like a Hitchcock movie. I can see Bill diving into the corn.

          • Afghanbeav Afghanbeav says:
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            If I’m reading the rules correctly; schools get unlimited off campus recruiters now.

          • Jack says:
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            They can send all nine off campus now instead of having to leave two at home so someone can always be accessible for the players.

          • bendbeaver bendbeaver says:
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            Aren’t those still proposed rule changes?

  • Ackrite says:
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    My grandpa was a long time basketball coach at the junior college level and OU grad. We were talking about Oregon basketball and his comment was that they werent overly talented but extremely well coached. I bring this up because while OSU talent is improving I think they have limitation due to coaching. Coaching is so important at the college level, see the improvement at asu, zona, ucla.

    While I believe the program is stable (7-9 wins) Riley is going to find a way to lose 2 games a year, making a 11 win Season only a 9 win…etc. While I’m not huge Riley fan I think there has been some improvement in the coach staff and liked seeing them get agressive to keep bray, but them not hold my breath to see similar action to get rid of Langs.

  • Jack says:
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    Hidden inflation?

    I’ve heard of hidden taxes, of which inflation is one. There are core and omitted inflations. And it looks like you’re explaining the Wal-Mart theory of creating goods to explain “always low prices.”

    But hidden inflation?

    • angry angry says:
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      That’s just the term for it: http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/hidden-inflation.html

      I know rising prices are the result of inflation.

      • Jack says:
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        That’s interesting.

        So one of the major tenets of supply-side econ is now “hidden inflation?”

        I don’t disagree. But I’ve just never heard that term before.

        For the record, I think other major tenets (e.g. tax rebates and subsidies) of supply-side econ are more hidden than things discerning consumers can recognize at a glance. But I guess this is all another discussion.

        However, it is kinda neat that everyone is agreeing that Keynes was always correct about general currency dilution, inflation and inequality. Now we just need people to wake up and stop touting the tools for dilution as the remedies.

        • angry angry says:
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          I think it’s a relatively new term since corporations used to just raise prices to beat CPI. CPI is so flawed now that they can’t do that. There are also variations like “slack fill”, where containers are filled with air instead of goods (popular with potato chips), and things like making consumers assemble their own products.

          On a side note, I am on my 3rd can opener of the past year. These aren’t cheap can openers…each was $15-20. Goods breaking after 3 months–planned obsolescence, hidden inflation, or both?

          • Beavergopher Beavergopher says:
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            Operator error?

          • angry angry says:
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            *thumbs down*

          • VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
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            Do what Jack does and use one of those manual can openers that he keeps on his key chain, you know, the old military style.
            Or just stop eating out of cans.

          • angry angry says:
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            Haha. I can totally picture Jack with one of those.

          • Jack says:
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            I do have a p-38 in my camp pack… WWII vintage.

          • WFO WFO says:
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            The can opener on my leatherman has opened a thousand cans when I used to use it at work every day. Easier on the thumb than a p38.

          • Jack says:
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            It’s just a back-up. The primary camp opener is one of those little steel butterfly cranks.

          • WFO WFO says:
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            Maybe that’s the answer. Cruise goodwill and yard sales looking for an old american made chrome steel opener from the 70s. It’ll be just like scoring the 70s Marantz for $5. They think it’s old junk when it’s actually 100x better than what you can buy now.

          • ncaa_viOlation ncaa_viOlation says:
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            Gotta say, there’s something to this. Another kitchen product I’ve had to replace recently after less than a year of use was my Crockpot. Damn thing burnt out in less than 9 months of light use. Paid around $35-40 for it, and they told me a replacement heating element would cost $30 plus shipping. Who’s going to bother fixing a piece of shit like that?

            Yet, the Crockpot I inherited from my parents that has been around since the 70’s, when I was a kid, is working just fine to this day. (although the Marantz I inherited and still have in my possession no longer works, know a good repairman?)

          • angry angry says:
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            NCAA, check out the movie called the lightbulb conspiracy.

            Also, BPA is in cans but also every plastic product.

          • WFO WFO says:
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            Ncaa if you live in Eugene take it to TV Specialty on River Road.

          • VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
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            The p-38’s are pretty good if that’s all you have but the p-39 is better imo.

          • ncaa_viOlation ncaa_viOlation says:
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            Since we’re on the canned food topic…
            While reading some pregnancy research recently (baby angrybeav on the way in July) I found that canned food often contains Bisphenol-A (BPA), the same BPA that was banned from use in the manufacturing in baby bottles. The same BPA that was banned by the Canadian government in the use of food manufacturing. Is nothing safe anymore?

          • Jack says:
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            I would call it negligence or apathy more than I would planned obsolescence. Wise consumers should know better, not become Wal-Martians. If they don’t care, why should the producer?

            There might be a cyclical benefit to all this in the end. Supply-siders have saturated all options to keep their product on shelves and “competitive” (all options except making the best product available… hello car manufacturers). Producers could raise prices, use lesser ingredients/materials, offshore production or lessen quantity/size. Those have always been the options. There’s nothing new about that.

            But now all that has happened to such a degree that volatile non-CPI inflations like energy are tipping the scales back toward domestic production. Even Wal-Mart is starting to ask for domestic goods because of the feedback they’re receiving from their suppliers. Good PR is a benefit, but it would be scrapped in a second if they could just keep their multipliers low and squeeze profit from every morsel.

            I have two can openers… neither of which I bought myself. I have a top-cutter in the Nogent Super Kim, and I have a side-cutter in the Pampered Chef Smooth Edge. I got both as gifts, and I love both. The Super Kim is an awesome little tool, and I’ll probably buy one just for camping. I use it most often. But I use the Smooth Edge when I’m opening a can I know is going to go in the fridge half full for a day or two… using the lid as a… well… lid.

          • ncaa_viOlation ncaa_viOlation says:
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            Must be a slow day in recruiting….but I’ve gotta say, you’re not the only one replacing more than 1 can opener this year Angry. Have had to do the same, and it’s really annoying that such a simple gadget can be made with such poor quality. Smoothedge looks pretty sweet, I might need to get one of those. How durable is it Jack?

          • angry angry says:
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            Really? Both glad and sad to hear this isn’t an isolated event. WTF is going on that we can’t even purchase reliable can openers anymore? I’d like to hear more about the reliability of Jack’s, too. How long have you had them, how often do you use them, etc?

            Another thing I’ve noticed: ‘solid white’ albacore tuna is getting browner. I actually have Chicken of the Sea doing a lab test on the last pack I purchased because it looked and smelled like cat food.

          • WFO WFO says:
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            We eat a shit pot full of albacore tuna at our house and the best we’ve found is Costco brand and Safeway brand. The big name brands can be pretty funky at times.

          • Jack says:
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            I’ve had the Smooth Edge for about four years now. The Super Kim is about a year old. Both sit up front in my utensil drawer. Now that I think about it, I think I have an old Swing-a-way buried in the back of that drawer too.

            Why the hell am I able to remember brand names of can openers, but I couldn’t tell you where I left my keys five minutes ago?

  • beavsbeavsbeavs says:
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    OT…

    Does anyone have any info on 3* ATH Corey Lawrence? Rivals has us in his top 2 with New Mexico. Looks like another DB recruit based on the fact that Perry has been recruiting him.

    • beaverkman beaverkman says:
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      Check the forum for more, but I have heard that his grades are the issue not his talent.

  • hhh says:
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    where’s the mcgee vs kempt discussion?

    Beavs need a qb. Mcgee is the man. lets get him.

    • beaverkman beaverkman says:
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      McGee is tripping Arizona this weekend, just some scuttlebutt on twitter from one of our commits, said that McGee likes to chase skirt, could be in jest, but Arizona is good place for that. I think if we take a qb this class it will be Kempf.

  • PdX says:
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    Time will tell. We have no option but to wait. BDC is going anywhere. MR isn’t going anywhere. And I bet it is safe to say CR isn’t going anywhere.

  • HopefulBeav says:
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    Admittedly, I’m a ‘lurker’ who reads this site sporadically depending on my schedule. But from what I’ve read, whether you’re in Team Angry’s corner or Team BeavItOrNot’s corner, yesterday’s posts were some of the most entertaining reads I’ve seen on this site. Well done gentleman.

  • beaverkman beaverkman says:
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    Xavier Preston had his offer taken away, apparently his grades won’t get him in.

    Leaves Greer and Songy as our only LB’s commits. Really need Bierria.

    • progressivebeav says:
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      That sucks, he looked like a good get.

    • bone says:
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      Bummer.

      • Beavergopher Beavergopher says:
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        Wow. Not good. We better hope Bray can work magic with the existing guys.

    • ObjCritic says:
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      Wonder if he’ll grayshirt?

      Skotte better deliver and stay healthy. Time for some of the back-ups to make enough off-season progress to earn Bray’s good graces and therefore playing time.

    • angry angry says:
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      Damn, he looked like the best one.

  • wannabeav says:
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    I was never good at math, but I think I have a good command of the principle of “reversion to the mean.” Thus, for a school that has a lifetime W-L record of less than .500, few eras in OSU history have been better than Riley’s run. As for the coach himself, he seems capable of delivering an average of 7 wins a year; some years, like the one just concluded, he will exceed expectations; others, like 2010 will suffer a down tick. 2011 was, in my opinion, a true outlier–an anomaly. They won’t happen often, and probably never again while he is coach. What Angry and othes refer to as the Pollyana mentality (which I don’t dispute) is actually a pscyhological corollary to this mathemtical principal. If, during the course of your whole life, your favorite team has played less than .500 football, and then you get a guy who can regularly approach .600, you find some comfort in that; or, if you will, stability.

    • WFO WFO says:
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      If UO was still a 7-10 win program and the CW was a back and forth contest mentalities would be different also. A 3 win season while your rival is in a BCS game is harder to swallow.

  • ObjCritic says:
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    OT – http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-football/news/20130122/way-too-early-2013-top-25/?sct=uk_t11_a1

    While admittedly “way too early,” I think they’re missing out by not picking the beavs in the top 25….the schedule is set up well for Beavs in the first 7 weeks of the season. I suppose the Beavs limp towards the finish line didn’t help.

    • ObjCritic says:
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      Maybe its not off-topic, indicates S-I writer thinks OSU is not stable…..

  • ncaa_viOlation ncaa_viOlation says:
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    Hope he makes the right “decesion” and picks OSU. We have a great spelling program to offer.

    Brayden Kearsley55 ?@BK55_ERA

    Tomorrow @ 3 PM in the AHS Cafeteria I will be having my announcement party! Come support me while I make a huge decesion and pick a school!

  • VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
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    I think we finish 3rd in the Pac again and go to the Holiday bowl.
    We SHOULD go 7-0 but more likely dropping an easy one and going 6-1. We are 2-3 in the last 5 games for an 8-4 season.

  • Slamadam says:
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    My feeling with riley is that for the most part we’ve always been on tghe upswing under his lead, but major progress takes a painfully long time. I think most can agree that riley can do more than most with average recruiting classes, (maybe not THAT much more) so a big key going forward will be keeping the gundersons and perrys and brays around, because its those guys as well as a guy like hayward before he left were the ones bringing in the higher quality players.

  • VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
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    Angry, are you referring to Ryan Gunderson being a major league asshole? Do you have some insight that you care to tell us?

  • ncaa_viOlation ncaa_viOlation says:
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    Anybody know who Riley was heading to Hawaii today for? Do we still have visits going on there?

    Mike Riley ?@Coach_Riley

    Heading out to meet up with @CoachBankerOSU in sunny Hawaii! Love the way this class is shaping up. #FutureBeavs13

  • Bill says:
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    One more thing that will help the future of the program is how high Wheaton and Poyer get drafted. Showing recruits that they can be a high round pick will be a plus.

    Sounds like Poyer might be able to sneak into the 1st rd. Wheaton likely 2nd or 3rd. Probably depends on how fast they run at the combine. Under 4.5 will put them near the top of their positions.

  • ncaa_viOlation ncaa_viOlation says:
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    Brandon Sprague with the twitter tease just now. Not sure if this is related to his radio job or the Beavs, or something entirely unrelated. He generally doesn’t disappoint though:

    Brandon Sprague ?@BrandonSprague

    Just got out of a meeting… Wow…. BIG NEWS coming soon.. Stay tuned. HUGE announcement.

    • whiskey soaked napkins says:
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      judging by his bio and the news that came out today I would imagine it has to deal with the Sacramento Kings being bought and relocating to Seattle. I seriously doubt it has anything to do with OSU

  • Beavergopher Beavergopher says:
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    It would be pretty funny if the news was that BDC resigned and Danny Langsdorf was fired because of online petitions.

  • mckalk says:
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    Shit, first football and now I can’t escape Duck basketball. I was listening to some college sports program on SIRIUS and they spent 30 minutes raving about Altman (and yes it is deserved), then they interviewed Singler and then I think it was Bruce Pearl started babbling about how the Ducks might run the table in league play. When is this nightmare going to end? And to make matters worse after the Duck lovefest was over, they had the Towson St coach on! Beaver stock is Pets.com. Duck stock is Apple.

    • whiskey soaked napkins says:
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      beaver stock is pets.com? Well shit we should be able to get Richard Gere as an OSU booster then!

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