There are certain losses that don't bother me. For example, losing to Oregon (I know that's blasphemy in this circle, but Oregon had the better team, system, and coach). A win versus Oregon would have been shocking; a loss was understandable.
There are other losses that bother me weeks, months after the fact. Two from this past season were Stanford and Texas. Part of the reason being the Beavs matched up well with those teams and held 10 point leads late in the games, so as a fan you could taste the big-game-victory (versus a team not named USC). But I think the bigger reason is that the team let up once they had the lead. To me, this is the disturbing aspect of both losses. I don't have any tangible evidence, just my observations. For example, in the Stanford game, most think it was over when Vaz fumbled. But I noticed momentum shift after the Romaine FG. What happened? Riley fist pump and shit-eating grin. People will say, "You're upset with him for cheering a FG?" No, not at all. Want to know why I'm upset? You know that saying "he wears his heart on his sleeve"? That's Riley. So when that kick went through, his heart/gut was all over his face. Faces tell stories. There are scientific studies that explain this. Just Google it if you're interested. But anyway, I am really sensitive/perceptive to these things, and what I picked up on was a coach who thought he won the game there. And from that moment on it was all down hill. Did they players pick up on what I did? Same thing happened after Storm Woods TD run in the Alamo Bowl. Riley showed relief/glee. Heart on the sleeve. He should have rallied the guys and explained that finishing the game would now be even harder because Texas was running out of time, and thus would be more desperate and focused than ever.
This isn't a "pick on Riley because it's January and we're bored" thread (if anything he's having a great January, recruiting looks fantastic except for the LBs).
It's a thread with two goals:
1. Vent my anger over playing three quarters in these games so I can hopefully move on.
2. Make others aware of Riley's facial/emotional cues so they can look for this trend in the future and decide for themselves.
Of course, the Washington loss bothers me, too. But that was just a bad decision…sticking with a guy too long. That's more understandable than a coach getting emotionally ahead of himself in the third quarter of big games.
You can go off topic and discuss other things.
One similarity that I found in the Stanford and the Texas game was two plays that were very similar (there was even a play in the oregon game, but didn’t really matter). The Hogan and Ash escaping what seemed like a sure sack and finds the running back which turns a 4th and long into a touchdown.
Yep, I was thinking that but didn’t want to turn the thread into a mobile QB discussion and take focus off the heart on sleeve/face thing. But definitely.
I think another big factor in both those games was the fact our lack of depth came to light in the 4th quarter and guys were simply gassed AND Riley failed to adjust for that in-game.
Lack of depth goes back to recruiting as many have stated, but let’s just pretend it is hard to recruit to OSU (which I don’t buy) it still goes back to poor coaching / decisions in the heat of the game.
Riley for the most part comes in with a good game plan with what he has to work with (Riley not Langsdork). But it is the in game adjustments that kill us and not having a good OC doesn’t help a stubborn Riley.
I really think a new aggressive OC might make a big difference. We can’t rely on Riley to pull people at the right time and make in-game adjustments. We need an OC that will impose that during the game.
I’ve heard lots of comments about players being gassed late in the game; usually the players involved are on the defense. Along with depth and conditioning issues it seems to me that time of possession is a real factor.
Early in the season the TOP was often in the Beavs favor, I seem to remember a number of games where the Beavs held the ball for 35 minutes or more. Later in the season we saw Riley abandon the run game and keep the Beavs D on the field long enough for them to run out of steam. The second half of the Alamo being the most obvious but certainly not the only example.
Having the two D line guys suspended was a big factor in the bowl game.
I guess my assessment would be that Riley acts almost like a player emotionally instead of a head coach. How many times do we see teams celebrate spastically with two minutes left in a game and the other team inevitably comes back to score the winning points?
As I coach, I would be very paranoid always thinking about the upcoming worse case scenario, I could never celebrate or relax until the very end. Riley has kind of a pollyannish attitude towards the game itself, so I’m thinking some of that has to rub off on this team.
Do you guys remember near the end of one of our USC victories when the players gatoraded Riley and he got upset, gesturing that it was still too early to celebrate? Kind of the opposite of this year’s reactions that Angry mentions.
I compare this trait to ufc fighters. The best ones really attack their opponent when they see them wobbling, but others just stand back and wait for them to regain their composer before re-engaging them.
We’re looking for killer instinct here!
I see what you’re saying, but we would need more evidence of Riley’s emotional response trickling down to the players to make a conclusion. We don’t really know how the position coaches are responding emotionally at these points in the game. If I was a player, their emotions would probably override the head coaches.
It seems like this could be a ‘Riley win-cap confirmation bias’ idea.
Not sure the win-cap requires any more confirmation than the W/L record of over a decade.
I do, however, agree that the position coaches have a real impact on the sideline; a factor in my high opinion of Trent Bray.
My comment wasn’t directly about the win-cap theory, but that angry is using an observation of Riley’s reaction and saying it’s the main reason for the loss. It’s one way to support the win-cap theory.
I’d have to go through each season to find other examples. Don’t really want to do that, which is why I framed it as something to keep an eye on going forward. If the theory is right and you pay attention, you’ll see the proof you want in future games. One that comes to mind right off the bat, though, is the ’09 Civil War. Riley had depression all over his face, and then laid an egg in the Vegas Bowl and subsequent season.
Regarding the win cap, it’s been violated once in 11 years. So yes, it’s not completely accurate, which is why many in the comment area modified it to be a prestige cap/bowl cap, etc. They got the general idea, and didn’t hold me so rigidly to the number of wins.
Hey, I am bullish on the upcoming season. I see 7-0 as possible. I think Oregon will be down, Stanford should be down…great chance for Riley to blow the win cap and bowl cap ideas out of the water.
Regarding Riley’s emotional reaction, this is just a case of correlation and then attempting to say it’s causation. To prove your position, you would also have to look at wins, or at least close/clutch wins, and then observe Riley’s emotions in those games as well. It would be something like: ‘see how the team responded so well to Riley’s steely focus and intensity’.
In the part of the game, how many guys are really tuned into the head coaches emotions? I see guys in their position groups. The QB tends to stick near the head coach if they aren’t on headphones with the OC.
I don’t think that would even prove anything. If you want absolute proof you’re going to have to do extensive interviews and experiments. Again, this is something I observed that bothered me and still does, and I think fans should start paying attention to it and decide for themselves. I never claimed it was proof. But we don’t want a coach who is emotionally acting (and coaching…how many times have we seen the game plan change for the worse late) like games are over in the 3rd or 4th quarter.
I think bendbeaver makes a good point about watching Riley in wins. Glad angry brought up this post and the suggestion that we all be more in tune with Riley’s mannerisms.
I’ve hammered the “focus/intensity” drum forever (almost choked at the mention of “steely focus”). I am optimistic about next season though. Since the ’11 season I am convinced Riley is more engaged and still wonder how much he was distracted by his father’s condition and the arrival of his grandson. From changing the practice schedule and taking over play calling to taking the steps he did to retain Trent, I see a huge difference in his involvement.
I wonder if he can now dig deep and find the killer instinct we’ve never seen from him.
IMO he cant dig and find something that isnt there. But a focus on winning could be found, and if that carried thru a season, it would be great. This past season was a good one, but still had some obvious lapses by Riley.
If he could just find a way to not lose the games he should win, one could be happier with him.
Hire Mike Stoops! Err…..
Angry, this is one of your better posts; mid season form.
to the issues: There are some losses that I haven’t gotten over, up to 10 years later (I’ve only been a fan since the ’99 season). Three examples will suffice: the SC game in ’01 when a missed field goal could have banished the loss streak at the Coliseum; which streak is almost the only vestige of the 28 years of futility. Erickson was the coach for that game. The others in my personal gut-wrenching hall of fame: Fresno in ’03 (last minute field goal); Utah in ’09; and UW in ’10. There have been other grievous losses, like UW in 2000 or LSU in 2004 but there were odd redeeming qualities to those games.
The Stanford and Texas games this past season have the prospect of ending up in my all time worst defeats list, but I need the passage of time before coming to that conclusion. But in the short term, yes, they were devastating.
shit. I thought I had erased the memory of the LSU game out of my mind until you brought it up. Thanks. That game is my all time hardest defeat. The Alamo Bowl loss is now 2nd. That Utah game is certainly up there as well.
That Utah game still gets me, too.
08 Stanford with the fumble into the end zone. Cost us the Rose Bowl ultimately.
Darrell Catchings. He did the exact opposite of his name, dropped and fumbled almost every time he had the ball. The only thing he could catch, unfortunately, was injuries.
I can still picture that fumble, and my friends turns and says “that one’s really going to cost us later in the season”.
I always referred to him as droppings not catchings. That game pissed me off as well. He was at about the 3 yard line when he tried to reach for the end zone. There was no reason for him to even try to hold the ball out as there was no freaking way he was going to reach the end zone. There was still almost 50 seconds left if he just would have continued and gone out of bounds. One of the biggest boneheaded plays in OSU football I’ve ever had the pain of witnessing.
It’s an aggressive mistake. I wouldn’t say it was boneheaded. He just thinking that he’s going to score. Things I file under boneheaded are illegal motion, lining up in the neutral zone, and not calling a time out with 3 seconds on the clock.
Sorry but I disagree. That was a boneheaded play/mistake. He was heading towards the sideline when he reached out with the ball. There was no way he was going to score. His arms weren’t 3+ yards long. The smart play was to keep with his momentum and go out of bounds. It would have been first and goal at around the 3 yard line with almost 50 seconds left. Plenty of time to score and we still had timeouts. We also would have needed a 2 pt conversion just to tie and force OT.
I object to your use of the term “bonehead” in a derogatory sense. JB
would you prefer I use yard ape instead?
Yeah, the LSU game was a hard one. The 2010 loss to WSU was hard in a different way. One showed a lot of effort, the other a lack of effort.
Since we are talking all time defeats, which kind is worse…..losing a game you COULD have won against a top-notch opponent, or…….losing a game you SHOULD have won against a mediocre foe?
I say losing a game you should have won against a top notch opponent. We outplayed Texas for 3 quarters. We also outplayed LSU in 2004. SHOULD have won both of those games. Same against Utah in 09. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory
napkin, I agree 100% with your statement.
I was trying to differentiate between games like WSU where one would have said a month before that OSU should win and a game like LSU where, against all odds, the in game performance put OSU in a position where they could (and, yes, actually should) win.
that’s the frustrating thing. It seems we ALWAYS lose those big games against tough OOC opponents. When was the last time we played well and won in Boise? Penn St, Louisville, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, TCU. I could go on and on. Last good OOC road win I can remember was that Dec win in 2006 against a pretty good Hawaii team. But they weren’t world beaters either. All the others we’ve lost. We are going to have to start recruiting and landing better talent if OSU wants to take the next step. Enough with the 2 star guys. We need to start getting some 4 star talent on the roster. A roster of 3 star talent is not going to win a Pac-12 title. Finding “diamonds in the rough” is not going to get us to the Rose Bowl. We absolutely must start getting more talented HS recruits instead of them taking 2-3 years to develop if we are going to start consistently being in the hunt.
also forgot about the ASU game in 2002 I think where we lost 13-9 after not getting a play off and letting the final 30 seconds or so run out. That was a Erickson coached team. That game is in my top 10 hardest defeats as well.
So beavs offer Kempt, essentially taking him over McGee?
I can see why. McGee runs a 4.47 and Kempt runs a 5.08. Perfect for OSU’s sack happy offense.
Have to agree with this post. I was greatly hoping OSU might take a turn in a good direction and get aggressive going after McGee. he is the exact kind of player I think could reinvogorate and help push OSU forward. It would have been prrof OSU is capable of evolving. I see more stubborness and sticking with the Riley comfort zone of a drop back quarterback who is not a threat to run and is more likely to face 4th and 10s or longer that will lose us a couple more close and very winnable games. This is exactly why Riley has a win cap. He doesn’t mix it up much. He has a decent formula to take leads through almost 3 quarters of action, but he prefers to play chicken and try to hold onto leads instead of trusting he can continue to outplay the opponent.
Can we have a thread discussing the need to have a more mobile QB? I’m not suggesting a change in an offense. But seemingly passing on McGee is a question mark for me. Check out his film, he looks really good.
Yeah…..cant the staff recruite a pocket QB who can run like hell if he has to? No need to change any of the offense…. Does lead feet make you a better pocket qb?
Maybe Riley/Langsdork aren’t ready (or don’t know how) to incorporate the read option into the offense. Or maybe the rest of the personnel isn’t right (e.g. OL and WRs who can block, etc). Not sure if guys like Gilmore can block or not.
McGee wasn’t too fond of Corvallis. He had plenty of time to commit and didn’t…thus the offer to Kempt. Time to move on…the coaches have.
How do you know that?
is it a race to commit? Would much rather wait for a better recruit than end up with Lomax 2.0.
Kempt is rated 41st by scout.com, which is higher than Vanderveen was rated last year.
Lomax was a walk on quality recruit, rated 138th as a QB.
So there’s really no intellectually honest comparison that can be made.
As for McGee, I don’t know why you think he’s such a world beater. Because you assume he can run? He’s got 2 offers from school who want him at QB, Eastern Washington and Florida Atlantic. With that kind of resume, do you think he’s really worth waiting for?
Kempt on the other hand holds offers from Cincinnati, Tennessee, Mississippi, West Virginia and others. To play QB.
I don’t understand the draw to shitting on the coaching staff for perceived mistakes like this one.
I like the pro set, so I like Kempt.
But Lomax was a full ride QB until he thought a woman was more important than carrying a clipboard. Can’t say I blame him honestly.
Kempt will not be Lomax 2.0. He has nice footwork, great accuracy and a really quick release. I’m not sure how he gets the pace on the ball he does with as short a release as he has.
Are you thinking of Harrington?
Just for the record (because people here hold me to my first impressions now), I like Kempt a lot. Agree with what Jack wrote below 100%. Lomax had ability, too. My point was just that McGee has more upside (and downside). I think Kempt is the safe pick and the right one all things considered. McGee appeals to the side of me that likes potential and speculation, but OSU isn’t at the point in program building where they can take guys like that. I prefer the safe pick here.
I’m curious, has there been a coaching staff that’s completely shifted from a pro-style to a read option offense?
Can’t remember anyone in college doing this, maybe Florida in 2007? They ran mostly pro style with Leak and Tebow came in for basically power runs up the middle, next year they went to the read-option with Tebow.
I think the way to do it is like TCU did with Dalton. Dalton was no Tebow or Masoli or Mariotta when it came to running, but he did enough to keep the chains moving and to help create opportunities for the RBs. Vanderveen is easily that mobile. Watching Kempt’s camp film that Cliff posted and seeing that kid rollout and throw, I think he could run like Dalton did. Vaz could probably do it (though I hope the Vaz experiment is over). McGee could definitely do it.
You look at the YPC for Marshawn Lynch in Seattle, and that guy for Washington who had a breakout year, and it is clear how having the running threats of Wilson and RG3 benefited those running backs.
Maybe he didn’t like it here, he seems to like the warm regions. It may also be that Kempt is smarter 4.25 gpa. Plus, he is taller at 6-5. I will be interested to see where mcgee does sign?
I’d guess Arizona.
Problem is, he wants to play QB and they want him to not play not QB. That’s why they got 4* Anu Soloman, who looks almost exactly like Marcus Mariota on the field. McGee won’t get any snaps at AZ if he commits there.
My guess, he’s probably going to EWU.
I can see this being a pretty depressing post.
A long walk with your dog will help.
or a bike ride around town.
Lots of beer.
You guys have no idea of what truly depressing losses are. Try being a Gopher fan LOL.
I agree with Angry about the Stanford FG. Saban would have been ripping of his headset because they didn’t get the TD.
Something else that really bothered me about the Alamo Bowl, is that it was a chance to make a national statement/win a big game. OSU is known as pesky because they can upset good conference teams once in a while, but they aren’t perceived as a national threat. They had a chance to basically beat Texas at home and choked. I agree some it is defensive fatigue. If they just looked tired and Riley wasn’t coaching like he had the game in the bag I’d be over it.
The DTs depth is on the rise. Need more LBs and CBs in the mix. It’s why I am so high on this recruiting class–finally addressing the depth chart properly.
They were two winnable games there for the taking; Riley’s attitude wasn’t to take them, but to essentially wait/hope they fell to OSU.
Those two games make a tremendous difference in bowl placement, final rankings, recruiting, and team confidence.
Rumor is that CR went to DC in pursuit of the Secretary of Defense opening. Obama considered it briefly, until it was pointed out that CR doesn’t know anything about defense.
Beavs need six wins to avoid a losing season. Where are they going to come from? Anyone? Anyone? Buehler? JB
They’ll win 3 out of 4 of the Bay Area games, 2 with Utah, 1 at UW, split with Colorado. That’s 7.
not sure if serious
Serious.
ok forgive me for laughing. But you think that a team that has ventured out of Gill in conference play only twice and is 1-4 at home is going to win 7 conference games? Seriously???? I’ll be surprised if the beavs win more than 4 total.
Maybe I’m looking through my orange colored glasses, but it seems reasonable to me. I don’t know how many games you’ve been watching lately, but the team has a different feel the last couple of games, despite losing the coug game, when compared to the previous games. I would’ve like to see the team in this place on January 1st, but since it happened four weeks later, they’re in this hole. Four of the losses are from the top 4 teams in the conference, 3 of those they don’t play again.
I think you are definitely looking through your orange colored glasses. Other than the first 15 minutes against UW this team looks pretty much the same to me. One caveat, I did not watch the WSU game. Watched almost all the other games and been to several.
I’m also willing to acknowledge that this positive outlook could merely be a coping mechanism to keep me from going over the edge.
Being a beaver fan is a sure fire way to full blown alcoholism
You don’t need a winning record to make the CBI!
Hell, just getting to the CBI is enough to garner a contract extension at OSU
OT: I don’t think we are going to have to worry about Kempt qualifying academically. 4.25 GPA.
http://oregonstate.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1465170
Sounds like great kid. Smarts are always good in a QB.
how does one get a 4.25?
Advanced Placement classes give that bump in GPA.
He gave his teacher an apple.
For the most part, Riley seems very stoic, so I guess I disagree that he wears much on his sleeve. I am not going to commit to that observation 100%, but that is the image I have in my head of him.
Losses that bother me to this day not counting the 2012 season: 2007 @ Arizona State. They were up 19-0 after the first quarter. It should have been a blowout victory, instead ASU outscores them 44-13 over the final 3 quarters. The next game they lead UCLA 14-0 after the first quarter, STILL lead 14-12 after 3 and them get outscored 28-0 in the 4th. Stanford in 2008. All they had to do was contain Gerhart and they win going away. They would have been in the Rose Bowl even with a loss to Oregon. Later that year the loss to Utah. An XP and a missed FG by Kahut kept Utah in the game, they tied it, then Riley completely fucked up OSU’s final possession which allowed Utah to get it back and win the game. 2009 against Arizona. Nick Foles making his first career start at Arizona and he destroys them. Even the Boise State game in 2006 leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
The losses to Oregon(Sans 2009) and USC from a few years back I can get over, but the games where OSU is in complete control over a team they are just as good as or better than are ones I can’t stand. It has happened for years under Riley. They’ll start fast and then lose the intensity and stop doing what got them the nice lead and then proceed to have a meltdown.
Since 2006, they’ve lost 7 games when having a two possession lead, in that same span they’ve came from down 9+ or more twice. Mike Riley teams over the years have rarely handled in-game adversity well. That doesn’t reflect well on the coach. A team punches them in the mouth early and they don’t respond. Beavers will hit a team and take a nice early lead, then when the other team responds and there’s some adversity for the Beavers, they have a meltdown. It’s happened way too much.
I think Riley is the same guy he has always been, but this year was trying to respond to criticism and pressure, by showing more emotion and being more positive. But he doesnt know how, since that isnt him. So he emotes at inappropriate times.
I suggest Riley doesnt know how to get a team psychologically ready for a game. The team either gets itself ready or not. I think he just wants to teach football and the wins happen or not as fate decides. Thats why we typically usually lost under Riley, early in the season, and can lose to a Sac State.
I recall the grin while we were getting our ass kicked in the 3-9 season. Since he can do that…not be upset when we lose, he can also stop coaching during a game. Hey, its all just character building and finding identity. So adversity needs to be part of the mix.
So I think he is a good football mind, but doesnt have the mentality to be a considtent winner (of games we could win). Nice guy, but doesnt know how to motivate and to focus. Basically, too easy going?
The focus on the game at hand is rarely there. Witness the poor time management we see again and again. And leaving a failing qb in too long. Isnt that a lack of focus? He did the basic prep for a game, but when it takes a turn and that no longer works, he cant focus on making an adjustment.
And all that leads to the win-cap theory which seems to be right on.
But doesn’t everyone have a win cap?
I’d say yes, or 95% of them anyway. Since the win cap theory no longer seems tethered to a specific number of wins, it boils down to Riley makes coaching mistakes of some kind that lead to losses at some point. Which puts him in a unique camp with just about everyone.
“So he emotes at inappropriate times.” You mean when his team scores points? See, that seems like an appropriate time to “emote.”
“The team either gets itself ready or not…That’s why we typically usually lost under Riley, early in the season, and can lose to a Sac State.” Huh? What does the team having to get itself ready have to do with losing or winning early in the season? And didn’t we start 6-0 this year?
“Since he can do that…not be upset when we lose, he can also stop coaching during a game.” One grin, without context, caught on camera and ipso facto Riley is not upset when we lose? Seriously? I have seen abundant evidence that Riley gets very upset when we lose.
“So I think he is a good football mind, but doesn’t have the mentality to be a considtent [sic] winner (of games we could win).” I think Riley has been a pretty consistent winner relative to most coaches. If you mean Riley has failed to always win the games he could, I guess I can’t disagree with that.
“The focus on the game at hand is rarely there. Witness the poor time management we see again and again. And leaving a failing qb in too long. Isnt that a lack of focus?” I am not sure this falls under the “focus” category, but his time management and QB decisions this year were unquestionably questionable. No one hates, and has hated all year, Cody Vaz as much as me (just good enough to sway coaches, not good enough to win against good teams).
“And all that leads to the win-cap theory which seems to be right on.” Pretty sure the win cap died basically upon birth this year.
The head coach jumps up and down like he just won the game, when the game is still in doubt, is doing it at the worng time. Clearly he isnt focused on the job at hand, imo. And if its a put-on, in response to criticism for not ever being emotional, then he needs a better coach on when to do it.
A grin in times needing a grimace, shows me something is wrong there. Seriously
I have never seen or heard of Riley showing anger. Has he?
The win cap died? LOL Not hardly. This year was a perfect example of that. The players self motivated and come out of the gate ready to play….something Riley had never got out of them. And after a series of such games, Riley loses focus and loses to UW, a game we should have won. So no 10 win season.
Hey, maybe pigs can yet fly, and next year Riley goes BCS. But it hasnt happened yet…..so….WIN CAP.
I notice some creep in the theory. How are you defining it? If it does just boil down to Riley makes a mistake(s) that cost us some undefined number of games, then wow, that truly is a groundbreaking theory in need of its own cute name. Me thinks it really did have a more specific definition earlier on, but now that the more specific basis has been disproven, the creep begins.
RSteve will now commence trying to figure out who ad hominemed him and called him a creep.
Its angry’s theory. But it looks to be spot on. Only Riley can disprove it….by actions — take us to a Rose Bowl….a BCS bowl. Otherwise, the theory stands on his accumulated record.. He never got there. And any notion that it cant be done in Corvallis, is blown out of the water by Erickson..
This past season seems to be typical of it….. first half, more or less, undefeated and looking BCS….could this be the year?? But Riley went what 2-4 in the last six games. He fulfilled the win cap….
I cant speak for Angry, but for me the WinCap means never getting into a top bowl. Never winning in double figures. There is no creeping on it.. Riley fulfills it. Only he can disprove it.
I know you polyannas like Riley because he has a lot of seasons with winning records. And you try to claim that that is as good as a beaver should expect. And that is indeed a nice thing. I like Riley, too, as a nice guy, honorable coach, and doing well for OSU football, in genaral. But he has shown, in the longest tenure of any coach right now, that he has a win cap. Thats just the record….sorry.
Apology accepted. Just want to know what the theory is. At one point the cap was 8 regular season wins. I won’t subscribe that idea to you if you never bought into it. Clearly it is dead. It sounds like your theory is Riley is incapable of taking the team to a BCS bowl. Ok. He obviously has not done that. By not “winning in double figures” do you mean that Riley cannot get the team to 10 regular season wins? Seems next year we might have a puncher’s chance at both targets, so we’ll see what happens. If he does, I’ll be eager to hear the qualifications, such as the conference was down, or Oregon was ineligible, etc.
I like Riley because I think he is a very good coach who has done a very good job at OSU. I also suspect if we changed coaches now, there is about a 90% chance the team regresses. That all seems like a sufficient basis to like Riley and to be guarded against calls for his head.
The cap has always been 8 regular season wins in 12 game season. Riley has bettered that once. From that theory came the bowl game cap. He has yet to better that one. Maybe year 12 is the charm.
I’ll be looking forward to the National Title cap if, god forbid, Riley gets us to a BCS bowl game.
Now that’s just unreasonable.
Don’t you mean if Trent Bray gets us to a BCS bowl game?
Oh, I thought that went with out saying.
You guys dont like the theory, and maybe you dont like any criticism of Riley. the polyanna theory.
I never saw it as 8 wins. Too specific. The real point, to me, is that Riley almost never does as well as HE can. He finds a way to not motivate, not plan, let opportunities slip away, not make adjustments during a game….and loses games HE should win.
You can expect to lose to the few really good teams you play in a season, but will get some of those as wins. So, come a season where you win a couple of those toughest games, then just win the ones you should win, and …bingo….you are BCS bound.
Riley isnt a coach in his second or third year, where you might speculate on his chances of getting to the top. He is the longest tenured in the conference. He has shown that the win cap is true. He finds a way to lose games he should win.
Theories are postulated on the basis of explaining a situation/data/phenomena, and are established or discredited by further experimentation and data. The win cap theory is well established. Riley himself provides the data. The polyannas not liking the theory is meaningless.
Just because we don’t “like” your unfounded criticism of Riley does not mean we don’t appreciate other, well-founded criticisms of Riley. Your criticisms are bad. Even when you accurately point out poor clock management or questionable QB decisions (again, amen to that), you attribute it to larger points that have no basis. You can’t even get your criticisms right. Yeesh.
Beavis — The win cap theory is totally supported by Riley himself, in his season to season performance. The theory stands on the evidence. Is that theory a “larger point” that you are afraid to name?
“Your criticisms are bad” … then you argue against your own statement by saying the time management criticism is good, … qb decision criticism is good….
So the only criticisms you name …. are good, on my part. You refute your own statement — being a polyanna, you dont like any criticism of Riley. I suggest this blog is a bad place for you. In any case, if you want to argue, please do it in an intelligent manner. Thanks
Hahaha. I am beginning to think you are a parody account by a true pollyanna created to make Angry and the Angryannas look foolish. A pursuit in which you are succeeding mightily.
No rebuttal…. ok.
I get it. Riley has not taken the Beavs to a BCS bowl.
I’ve seen Riley slam his headset to the ground more than once, like when they called us for a bogus pf penalty against Luck on that int.
There, now you’ve heard of Riley getting mad.
Also, you guys that say MR celebrating (a fist pump or two hands in the air really) causes the players to lose focus or sends the wrong message have never played a down of football.
During a game, you’re rarely looking at the head coach unless you’re the backup qb and you’re getting plays from him. One guy pumping a fist after a long field goal doesn’t mean shit.
Go over to bitchingbeavs.com for complaints about coaches making the wrong facial expressions.
It is not clear to me if the theory is that these emotive cues rub off on the players, which causes bad results, or if the cues are just symptoms of Riley’s poor/improper mindset, and it is the mindset that is the cause of the problem.
Attitude and mindset, that you want to project to your players is not something simply done by a few gestures. Riley was different this year, from the previous one. But he still found ways to show indifference, at times. Like bad time management at the end of a half or game. Why does this EVER happen? And with Riley it happens every so often.
Was the real Riley is the coach who could be heard saying things like …the team is finding its identity…. instead of trying to give it an identity. Or is it the Riley who this year actually predicted a win, instead of hoping for one.
Yes, Riley showed some signs of greater intensity and focus this past season, especially early, and thats great. But then there were the lapses….streaks of bad play calling….bad time management,….not even trying Mannion when Vaz was stinking up the place.
This past season went undefeated for half of it…..if ever there was a season where one might expect total focus from Riley all the way, this was it. But he couldnt do it.
Not a good sign, imo. But who knows. Thats the beauty of college sports.. Every year, a new team. Or at least somewhat new….
So it sounds like you think Riley has a focus problem, or that he is indifferent (not sure which), and these various things are just manifestations of that, as opposed to the team saw Riley fist pump in the Stanford game and then decided to take a nap cause it was in the bag.
Regarding poor clock management, I am not going to champion Riley as some sort of clock master, because I don’t think he is, but why should it EVER happen? Why do golfers miss 4 foot puts? Why do soccer players miss PK’s? Why miss a free throw? Clock mismanagement is not uncommon.
I don’t see that poor clock management or bad play calling has anything to do with a lack of intensity.
Not sure what evidence there is he doesn’t actually care. I don’t think any of us have nearly enough information to make that call. My guess is you would literally not find one player or coach (former or current) who thinks Riley does not care about winning.
Hey….you may be right. No one knows what is ACTUALLY going on in ones head. …what is actually being felt. Exterior manifestations may be jusst play acting. The lack of them doesnt mean nothing is being felt.
But…..I have come to the conclusion that winning isnt as important to Riley as it is to a lot of coaches . Witness a lot of his coaching career. Why were his teams, up until last year, never motivated/prepared/will-coached … at the start of a season???? Why were they left to “find” themselves during the season.
Why the obvious letdowns….like no clock management at the end of a half? Everyone watching can see the sudden need for time management….and it doesnt happen. And not just once. There is something wrong there.
You are free to look at the situation and come to whatever conslusion you want. Mine is that none of this is as important to Riley as it is to a coach like Chip Kelley (etc, etc). I think he went at it better this past season because of the criticism and pressure from above.. Still, he didnt sustain it for a whole season. Can he even do that — sustain interest/intensity for a whole season? I doubt it, based on past performance. There will be periods when he lets down….takes a nap…..doesnt care…..spaces out…..whatever it is that is going thru his head at times so he disassociates..
Chip Kelly was roundly criticized for his play-calling against Stanford this year. Does that reflect a lapse in focus/intensity? I guess not since Chipper is your example above. Coaches have bad games just like players – it does not mean they don’t care about winning and it does not even necessarily reflect lapses in intensity or focus. Sometimes coaches just get it wrong.
Many other problems with your argument(s) but they’ve become so nonsensical it’s too tiresome to offer a thorough enough rebuke. For instance, you gripe about how Riley says his team found its identity and somehow that means the team had to figure things out for itself. Seriously? Should he have said “I gave this team an identity?” It is common coach-speak and you should know better.
You also don’t understand the win cap. The win cap was that Riley would never win more than 8 regular season games. He did that this year. This is the “win cap” as it commonly understood – not your own personal strange, amorphous cap.
This “pollyanna” label continues to amuse me because (a) it seems to mean anyone who does not think Riley should be fired (which is too broad and does not accurately reflect the meaning of the term), and (b) the posters who do not think Riley should be fired tend to appear to be the more level-headed and insightful in this crowd.
This blog needs a “mute” button
LOL … you are being deliberately dense. Probably because you cant come uip with any real arguments to what I say.
Kelley had a bad game with Stanford…..so what? Kelley went BCS four fucking years in a row. You think its wrong to think that there is a difference between Riley and Kelley, in their will to win? I havent seen Kelley lose a game he should win. I have seen Riley do that, and more than once. Would Kelley lose to a Sac State?
The win cap theory was more than a certain number of games. It was that Riley as a coach would find a way to lose games he should win, and so will never get to that BCS top rung. IN any case, theories are modified as new data comes in. So we modify it to include 9 win seasons., since that very good season included a couple games that Riley should/could have won.
One thing that theories stand or fall on, is predictability. Riley finally starts a season strong (completely unusual for him) and goes 7-0….. The win cap theory says he will find ways to lose games and still not go BCS…..and …Presto! …he goes 2-4 and the theory stands.
On the face of it, given 7-0, going 2-4 seems unlikely, maybe not even possible. But Mike did it. The win cap in total action.
Maybe Angry can educate you better on Polyanna….my take is that it refers to anyone who excuses what I think he calls mediocrity. The whole ..corvallis is hard to recruit to…crowd who think a 8 or 9 win season is the ultimate for OSU, and all fans should be happy to get to a lower tier bowl game. The ones, like you, who protest at anyone saying anything bad about Riley, like that he has periods when he doesnt focus or seem to care.
I say it looks to me like Riley has periods when he doesnt care. There is absolutely no way for you or anyone else, to refute that. Its my opinion, seeking to explain his coaching lapses. If you say Riley does passionately care, all the time, … I can refute that, by citing the endemic poor starts to every season except the last one, the ingame lapses, etc.. How do you explain that stuff…..just the breaks of the game, to be weak at the start of every season? ….that Riley is actually a mediocre coach and so cant plan correctly for every game? …or doesnt have the brains to call a timeout as the seconds tick away in a half? LOL
I think I am giving him a huge break by attributing the obvious poor coaching at times, to lapses in focus/caring/whatever….
I think it’s Kelly, not Kelley….
OT – seems like Poyer has helped himself at the Senior Bowl week?
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2013/CB
I hadn’t seen him projected the high before.I’m surprised UW’s Trufant is ranked higher. Better speed?
Wheaton really seemed to impress people, and here he’s projected in round 2:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2013/WR
As much as i love Poyer i just don’t think he has the speed to be a first or second day pick. I think he’ll slip to the later rounds on day 3.
A third day? He would have to drop a major deuce at the combine to drop that far, I believe.
Poyer will be a 2nd round pick and is helping his case. There’s NO WAY he slips to the third day.
UCLA went from a pro style offense to pistol-read option in one year. How did it work out for Rick? You need to have the right guys to pull it off. The key is to integrate elements and concepts to give opponents something more to think about. A true pro offense is not static nor anchored to the year 1995 or 2000. Whatever one chooses to call their offense, it needs to evolve or suffer the consequences of evolution.
Just like the next guy, I would love to see more speed at QB. McGee was offered long ago and did not went to come to Corvallis. Give the coaches some credit for pulling the trigger to find a bonified student. I believe that only somone like Lance Armstrong would have been able to convince McGee to come to Corvallis.
Regarding depth issues, yes, it would be nice. However, the trend is for more versatility on defense to counter the speed offense. Sure, you want some flexibility in substitutions. Yet the concept of subtitution packages on defense is an old tired concept. San Francisco 49ers play their top 11 defenders 92% of all snaps every game al year. They are not alone having a base defense that is more able to adapt to the quick pace employed by opponents. If a 19-23 year old cannot play every down (remember that there is only about 10-12 minutes of intense action in any game) without getting gassed, then it really speaks badly about the training and conditioning of the team. Besides, if an offensive lineman can play the whole game, why can’t a defensive lineman play 90 percent of the snaps? I know that many of you do not watch or like the other football partially because the players take dives and do not seem macho. But any soccer/football player that could not go the full 90 minutes would be considered a wimp.
Blog Wars! They’re calling the Angrybeavs out over on Scout:
ckbeav wrote: Angry and his commenters have some of the best analysis out there, but some people can’t get past the name of the site.
OrangeAttack wrote: he has some thought provoking stuff
…but the X’s and O’s IQ isn’t real high over there. I’d take Sarg/Bill/Atown/beavos over here above pretty much anybody.
X and O’s isn’t really high??! It’s go time!!
OH NO THEY DI-N’T!
Clearly he hasn’t talked basketball with Jack.
‘ the X’s and O’s IQ isn’t real high…’
He’s talking about the team, right?
Sounds like Quizz and James will be guests at the annual recruiting dinner next week.
Also, for those waiting on pins and needles for Spragues announcement, sounds like it will be something related to his broadcasting duties for the Beavs/Ducks/Blazers. yay…..
If you ask Rashaad Reynolds, who is leading a group of highly motivated young DB’s in daily drills at Truax (drop by around 3:30 or 4:00), 7-0 is a minimum. He exudes “Leader” and politely says us Beaver fans can expect BIG things next year. (Very nice young man)
You could also ask the players working their butts off daily in the Sports Performance Center, or any of the Samoans that survive the absolutely brutal rugby games they indulge in evenings on the practice field. Running out of gas shouldn’t be a problem next year considering the running they are doing. All these guys are very excited and optimistic for next season.
Excellent. Now let’s make this an in season priority not so much by adding time to practice but changing the pace of drills or scrimmage to mimic the realtime game experience. Actually, I never viewed the Beavers as weak or out of condition. I view them as motivated young men intent on earning their keep. I am just opposed to the assumption that the guys wore down because of the depth issue forcing the few to play too many downs. Depth should be developed to compensate for potential injuries and to provide alternative skills for the opposition to consider.
I think we angrybeav posters just made this a priority. Next!
Excellent!
Ducks have offered LJ Moore
LJ Golden Boy Moore ?@LJBouncyMoore
Lol It’s Nice To Have An Offer From The University Of Oregon #Ducks #Blessed
GAG.
good place to go if you want to play for a school on probation and not going to a bowl game for a few years.
Johnny Ragin going to visit this weekend, also at uo, probably will be offered.
Man I hate recruiting season….
Funny, Ragin just decomitted from BYU and accepted a CAL offer last week. ( and got a ton of flack from BYU fans)
Probably just wants the free wine and dine experience with the local schools.
I think in Provo you only get the dine part of that.
Whine and dine in Provo.
I don’t think the Ducks have a chance with LJ Moore as he did not even take an official visit there.
Ragan and Shipley both have de-commited from BYU in the last couple weeks so don’t be surprised if there is another.
Kearsley was pressured by “The Church” to honor his verbal commitment but his mother would like him to play closer to home. Moms have a big influence in recruiting. Dad says do what you think you should do. Time will tell.
Mother knows best.
two quality RB’s in the stable… hopefully come signing day I should add
Moore would be the cherry on top for a very good class. Hope we can get him. A big CB or safety
to help with all the spread offenses. Too bad that TE switched to the dogs earlier. So far so good with holding on to our verbals.
What is the deal with NO instate recruits? I realize things have been down the last couple years, but
kind of amazing. Does anyone know of any potential PWO’s that are promising?
Unless Allen is very interested in Track, his commitment to UO seems like a waste for a WR, particularly in light of the many, competing offers:
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-Devon-Allen-118379
Not necessarily. Have gotten the feeling Helfrich is going to change the offense. Still will run plenty of read option, but will pass it a lot more and get the wide receivers a lot more involved.
Not much new here, but here is a list of recruits still on the board for us, according Mama
http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2013/01/oregon_state_beavers_recruitin_13.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGeL-ZUJyAU
Casey is so good.
Article on freshman pitcher Andrew Moore:
http://www.registerguard.com/web/sports/29372138-41/moore-pitch-beavers-osu-andrew.html.csp
Casey’s comments around the 17:30 mark give an idea of the approach which has brought him success and admiration. Explaining how his competitiveness translates into being a “coach” and not a “manager” seems, to me, to be instructive.
It is interesting that when he says it is all about the players and that the staff tries to put the players in the best position to reach their potential but it is the players who have to perform, it comes across as reasonable and logical. When Riley and his staff have, in the past, blamed the players for poor results it seems like they (Riley and staff) are dodging their responsibility.
I’m almost certain that the two staffs have the same concept; but the two presentations of that concept leave me with a different, almost opposite, reaction. Just me?
What happened to Duke? I know he had an injury, but did he quit?
left school to deal with a family issue, did not return. No longer on the roster, won’t be back
Man I hope Peko gets his schoolwork taken care of and shows up:
http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2013/01/signing_day_countdown_oregon_s_3.html#incart_river
I liked this quote from Peko, “I watch OSU and talk to coaches and they’re talking about playing smash mouth football,” Peko said. “I’m in the trenches, so that sounded like fun to me.”
Smash mouth, sounds good !!
Until the 4th quarter, then we will throw it to give the other team a fair chance to win the game.
Close games with controversial endings are a neat deal! Blowing your opponent out just ins’t that much fun, and could be embarrassing to a member of our great coaching fraternity we have here.
You’re right, those blowouts with Cal and Nicholls probably weren’t much fun for them.
I actually enjoy the close games. I find most Duck games boring/bordering on unwatchable. I constantly tell myself being a duck fan wouldn’t be any fun until January, and I much prefer having close hard fought games even though you may not win them all. Justify much?
The Cal game was fun to watch, but I think only because we don’t blow people out that often. Stuck in DTV PAC12N purgatory so I didn’t catch Nichols.
Here’s an excellent “BeaverMobile” to purchase with that extra Pac-12 TV revenue:
http://www.autoevolution.com/news/fab-design-releases-mclaren-mp4-12c-spider-terso-photo-gallery-54594.html
BeaverMobile=hooker with a car?
I was thinking switching the bike for the car would change Riley’s image enough….throwing in a hooker might strain the “family atmosphere” image.
I like it when folks get together and share ideas.
Great website, continue the good work!
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