Home Football Is Riley a Victim of His Own Success?

Is Riley a Victim of His Own Success?

136

Today I play Devil's advocate to the devil. Is Riley a victim of his own success?

For example, the Iphone. It was inevitable this gadget would lose luster as habituated customers' expectations rose. In the 90s, what Riley was doing was great. Fans weren't habituated to 5-7 wins; they were habituated to Pettibone(head's) 0-2 wins. So Riley steps in and he's a genius, a human Iphone! Now we're used to 7 or 8 wins, and this seems like a top (just like the Iphone 5 for Apple). In corporate America it's not such a big deal…CEO acquires some cutting edge assets/technology, change the business model from luxury good to economies of scale, raise the dividend, and everyone is happy. In football, where the CEO (Riley) has less control over end results, it's harder to predict where this goes.

I do know that there is a timing and relativity variable to all this. If the Iphone came out in the 1970s when people were using wired pay phones, it would have a much different impact than in 2007. It's why Riley seems like such a hero to some. In 1997 Oregon State was tantamount to said wired pay phone. Riley was an Iphone in that environment. But I am not sure timing and relativity are enough to forgive Riley completely and label him a victim of his own success. If he weren't a victim of himself (i.e. costing himself wins each year) I think it would be easier to put that label on him.

One positive I can say about Riley is he's an old dog who is open to new tricks–they just take a painfully long time for him to learn and incorporate.

Thoughts?

136 COMMENTS

  1. I like that the Riley Iphone 5 has added a twitter app. It’s been a neat deal (even if it’s not actually Riley doing it) Keeps the recruits and the fans more connected. He just put this one out there. Simple message but it has me interested in finding out what the “great news” is.

    Mike Riley ?@Coach_Riley

    Hearing some great news over the last 24 hours, need to keep this going! #GoBeavs

  2. you are terrible at devil’s advocate but I appreciate you trying.

    Such a back handed compliment to say….ya Riley’s been good at OSU but he got so lucky to do it during the awful 90s.

    Umm if the iphone 4 had come out in the 70s, not only would it have been amazing but whoever would have invented it literally would have been a genius. None of this, “he got lucky to develop during a time where there were only pay phones” It’d ,literally just be genius. That’s it. No qualifications about it.

    Every 4 year old knows the world ain’t flat, doesn’t mean it wasn’t brave to sail out there and find out.

    Not to mention ignoring ALL of Riley’s success during his second stint. You really must hate him.

    Riley is a good to great coach with one thing missing from his resume: Rose Bowl win. Can’t we just leave it at that? Or focus on how to get us there? Neuheisel and Ron Zook made Rose bowls so we know it can be done.

    • No. It cannot be done. You’ve heard of the Win Cap, right?

      I’d say the iPhone 4 in the 70s would actually be miraculous, not just the product of genius.

    • It’s more like we’re habituated to ~7 wins now, so is he a victim of that success or not?

      Regarding your other point about the iphone: timing matters. Yes, in the 70s it would be genius. That was my point. Riley was a genius in the late 90s. Now he’s just…typical Riley. Definitely doesn’t look like a genius. Is that because we’re habituated and he’s a victim of that success?
      No obvious growth or changes. Changes that do take place are painfully slow…like a bloated, dividend stock (e.g. msft compared to goog).

      How do get to a Rose Bowl? Simple, keep recruiting like they are and have Riley learn how to use timeouts, challenges, not give up in the 4th quarter, etc.

      • Riley is the man for the job?

        His record shows otherwise. Either he starts too slowly, or he ends that way. Cant do it all season.

        But better than taking a chance on a different coach? Well, that chance worked well with Erickson. The only Beaver BCS appearance so far.

        Riley should realize his limitations and plan with the AD for his retirement. Gvie the AD a chance to do a good search for his replacement. Should be possible to get someone good, coming to a solid program.

      • if change was as fast as you’d like Riley would have 7 national titles by now because for you, a continual and consistent path upwards is the only way. No real realistic views on how programs run or that there are 120 other schools with the same goal and many with much more resources.

        This isn’t NCAA football ’14….dynasties only exist amongst the big boys

    • As hard as it is for some to apparently understand, I think the folks that support Riley support him because they think he is a very good coach and that there are only a handful of coaches coaching at an elite level that could come in and do a better job than Riley. It has little to nothing to do with the turnaround he sparked in the 90’s. Riley is not getting a pass from us – but that doesn’t mean we have to support his firing either.

      We (Pollyannas?) want to win too, the difference is we think Riley is the man for the job (again, not some DIII coach with a name that is easily misspelled). I agree the discussion should be on how can Riley and his staff improve. But it should also get equal print that what we see now, generally, is an energized program that has made major improvements in the past couple of years.

      • Riley is the man for the job or the value play?

        I find it hard to rationalize that a guy who hasn’t been to a BCS game in 11 years is “the man for the job.” Sounds more like nobody wants to cut a check so everyone is rationalizing he’s the man for the job.

        Yes, painfully slow improvement that didn’t have to be slow. This inevitable Langsdorf firing is another example…painfully slow process instead of cutting weak links now.

        • Both.

          And what you have to realize is that throwing money at the program is (a) no guarantee of success, and (b) often creates a disconnect between fans and the program. I know plenty of duck fans that are happy to see Chip go and wouldn’t mind Phil Knight going with him. They don’t so much care that they go to four straight BCS games as they do that the team be theirs. Maybe that’s old school, but I’ve never been jealous of the Ducks’ success because it only ever felt like Phil Knight’s success with a rent-a-coach at the helm.

          I go to every home game and multiple away games a year. Trust me, I want a Rose Bowl. But a Rose Bowl earned with sustained success would mean much more than one earned with shady recruiting and truckloads of cash. I know that’s not what you’re saying, but I think in many ways, that’s the other side of the coin.

          • Yeah I am not suggesting they throw money at a big name and then go after a Cam Newton. For years I’ve been suggesting a Montreal Expos/Minnesota Twins/small market model where they win more often by not beating themselves and putting resources into things like talent evaluation, so there are fewer errors and more contributors.

            Some ideas:
            (a) focus on recruiting, it is the life blood. For some reason this has taken forever (b) learn how to manage a clock, challenges, timeouts, etc. (c) cut weak links today instead of tomorrow. Can’t bank on them maybe growing into a job down the line. We saw this with the o-line for years and now Langsdorf (d) mobile qb is a 12th man on offense (e) focus more on special teams as it is a relatively easy way to win games (f) condition players better….for some reason this is still an issue even after staff changes (g) sign great college QBs, not a future average pro QB (h) study statistics to find hidden value in players (i) hire a sports psychologist (j) efficiency in everything …no wasted movements, words, actions, etc. These are some ways an inferior team wins.

            P.S. Discussions we’ll be having in 2020, Riley’s 20th year on the job.

            “He’s improving.”

            “He got us to an Alamo Bowl in 2012”

            “He came within making the Rose Bowl twice!”

            lol

            I think he can make a Rose Bowl next year if he doesn’t beat himself. 7-0 looks very possible. I find Riley fascinating because he does just enough when the heat is on and as little as possible when it’s off. It’s like if you don’t criticize the guy 24/7 he’ll go back into the lull.

          • I am not trying to interject too heavily in your chat with BeavIt, but your comment that Riley can get the RB next year so long as he doesn’t beat himself seems to dismiss the role Riley has played in putting the team in that position in the first place. It sounds as if Riley has just been handed this silver platter RB team and all he has to do is not fuck it up. When the national audience looks at the Beavs, I think what they see is a team that should never even be in the top half of the conference given the perennial talent level, let alone the Rose Bowl, and to the extent they ever compete, Riley is the reason.

            I am not here to forgive the fuck up, if that is what it truly was (we may disagree on that point, depending on the circumstance), but it seems disingenuous to come down too hard if Riley was the reason the team was in that position to begin with. And if you get rid of Riley, you might lose it all, not just the fuck up at the end you are trying to correct. Riley has not created an immovable iron foundation that necessarily stays when he leaves.

          • I agree with most of this.
            My question would be: how many years pass before the risk (of losing everything) is worth the reward (of taking next step)?

            Time is an undervalued variable. If you ever trade options (e.g. time decay) you know it’s value.

          • That is a fair question, and one I honestly don’t have a precise answer to, other than to say I don’t think now is the time. I think we have a solid coach in Riley, and with seemingly steady progress on the recruiting front, I see the potential for alot of wins in the future, and hopefully the elusive BCS birth.

            From my perspective as a fan, not sure time has the same value as it does in your options analogy to someone who trades options.

          • After the Alamo Bowl loss you said “The Beavs won 9 games in spite of this man.” Not sure how you can say that and agree with the point(s) Kroger is making.

          • I said I agree with most of it, not all of it. What i agree with is that Riley built the current foundation and has a role in success (and failure).

            The rest is defeatist (“extent they ever compete”) or doesn’t matter (e.g. doesn’t really matter how the national media views Riley since they don’t follow OSU closely).

            The “in spite of this man” comment, I believe, was a reference to him single-handedly losing games with clock mismanagement, etc. Probably angry about the game and blowing off steam, too.

          • That’s exactly right. In my opinion this season was a microcosm of that thinking. Angry predicts a losing season, and when Riley “screws up” after guiding the team to a 6-0 start, it’s “Fu*k You Riley” time. He gets no credit for surpassing expectations and getting the team out to that start, but takes all the blame when it falls to 6-1.

            Also, to restate Angry’s Twins/Expos theory as I understand it from this post and others, it’s do more with less and focus on efficiencies and doing the small things better. In other words, find value. And yet he criticizes Riley by calling him the “value play?”

            And again, I think Riley does do the small things well (but this gets back in part to how Angry does not credit Riley for finding lesser known recruits and turning them into good/great college players and I and others do).

            Also, I think many of Angry’s ideas (i.e. change your offense to one that utilizes a mobile qb; sign great college QBs; be better at special teams; be efficient at everything) are not switches you just flip. Great to say. Harder to do. Few coaches do everything really well. That being said, I don’t think anyone here doesn’t think Riley should work to improve in certain areas. Most just don’t think he should be fired because he has some weak spots.

            Last, what happens if Riley does make a Rose Bowl? It took too long? It’s not the national championship?

            Actually last, Riley has not had the “heat on” much at all during his tenure. I will agree that his teams have a habit of playing better as the underdog than they do the favorite, and maybe that is your point in disguise.

          • Riley should apologize for Sac State at the start of every year, until he retires.

            On the thread about losses you couldnt forget, almost no talk about Sac State. That one is unforgivable.

          • I give him credit.
            Being a value coach isn’t the same as embracing the small market model for running an organization. Riley tries to find value, but often misses (evaluation problems). E.g. Krebs, Pankey, entire o-line, etc. These were obvious misses to everyone (on this site at least). There are many dozens of these players over the 11 years. I’d guess many more than the occasional Rodgers/Hass, but one of us would have to go crunch numbers to find out. Anyway, I think they try to enact value model and fail because of poor evaluation.

            There are players who are great values (current guys like Tyler Anderson, Richie Harrington, etc) and I said so at the time they signed. Then there are guys who are obvious low hanging fruits picked to fill out the roster and/or just result of lazy/poor talent evaluation. Need more of the former, less of the latter.

            I don’t expect 4 or 5 star guys. All I ask for is legit 3-star talent, meaning a guy who could start his second year for any non-elite P-12 team. With a roster full of those guys, you can go far.

          • ^ I’m not sure that other coaches can’t coach legit 3-stars since it’s the median rating and also most NFL players were 3 star recruits from what I remember.

          • I expect consistent 3 star talent with a few 4 or 5 star guys sprinkled in here and there. I really don’t believe that 3 star talent alone is enough to get to the Rose Bowl.

          • Pollyanna talk

            Worry about what is said when Riley gets to a Rose Bowl, when he accomplishes that. Doesnt seem likely so why worry.

            Riley has obvious deficiencies. If we talk about them, maybe he takes the hint. The Pollyannas doent want any such talk….dont rock the mediocre boat.

            I wonder what actually happened this past season. Did the players get mad and play a lot harder, or did Riley inspire them to do that? History says its on the players. Riley teams always had slow starts. His teams never even had the chance to go BCS,. because he couldnt get up a BCS start.

            This past season he FINALLY got such a start. And what happens? He loses to UW. Then loses winnable games to Stanford and Texas.

            What you are left with, is that Riley cant sustain an effort, a whole season. Thats what his history tells you. Can he be reborn, and find such an effort? He is getting older, so one might think that is less likely than earlier in his career.

            But this is just idle talk. After that 9-4 year, he will have to really bomb to get fired. In fact, one wonders why the pollyannas are disturbed about firing talk…..no chance of that happening now.

          • I don’t even remember any fire Riley talk…at least not in since 2011.
            Regarding why the team was better: o-line. 4 of the 5 the low hanging fruits graduated.

          • The pollyannas claim any criticism is “fire Riley” talk, …. They dont want any criticism.

            The laughable thing is, its so freaking easy to criticize him. He has such obvious deficiencies. Thats why I keep coming to the conclusion that he doesnt care about such….he makes no attempt to correct them. The bad time management at the end of a half is almost predictable.

          • lol. Trust that, no matter how much I disagree with specific criticism of Riley, 0% of my comments/concerns stem from the fear that anything said on this blog has any consequence in the real world. And I thought we covered the definition of medicore already.

          • LOL … if the pollyannas were not worried about the consequences of anti Mike Riley talk, they wouldnt waste a second on here. What you say is obiously not true.

            Someone once said there is nothing more powerful than an idea, who’s time has come. You never know where talk is going to lead to..

          • You cut to the core of me Baxter.

            I can’t tell if you are being serious or not. We are talking about some guy’s football blog, right? It is possible I just disagree with you and don’t mind talking about it on a forum I follow.

          • A coach is expected to build a foundation. Then he is expected to use that foundation to gain the ultimate prize….win the conference, or at least go BCS. It is completely valid to knock Riley for building a foundation and then fucking up the rest.

            And saying it all goes away if Riley leaves is bull. Erickson already showed that.

            Riley has obvious deficiencies. If he doesnt deal with them, then I suggest he doesnt care, and needs to go just for that. There is something wrong with the Riley tenure. Either he starts inexplicably slowly or he blows games he should win. Something is missing. Something is wrong.

          • You get what you pay for. You know?

            I give him some credit for building the foundation (OSU was really bad when he was hired). But yeah, when your coach is blowing games because of clock mismanagement or putting the wrong players on the field for four straight years it’s valid to criticize him.

    • Riley is not a GREAT coach. Way too many obvious lapses. And, of course, never got that last step …

      LOL @ criticize = hate.

      Angry made the statement a long time ago, that one type of Beaver fan is grateful for just a winning season. He called it a mediocre season. That fan is happy with mediocrity and doesnt like talk of rocking the boat. Maybe those are the fans from the 28 yr losing streak. I think of mediocre as more average, like just a 6-6 season, and Riley in general does better than that.

      Angry wants that next step, where the fans want something better…..an occasional spike to the top rung. So our Mike Riley needs to produce, or the talk will continue. And it should.

    • “Every 4 year old knows the world ain’t flat, doesn’t mean it wasn’t brave to sail out there and find out.”

      Question: Sail out there? Do you think there was ever a sailor who thought the world was flat?

      Retro-stupidity should be reserved for those who think man walked with the dinosaurs. Man has known since forever that the world is round (-ish).

      Now… if you want to talk about heliocentrism and geocentrism as being contending theories until the enlightenment, then go ahead.

  3. I always laugh, painfully, when I think of Riley “motivating” the team with his famous Hip-Hip Hooray cheer. How many of the young players have the slightest idea where that came from? I think it was the rallying cry of the British Bengal Lancers when they occupied India about 150 years ago. JB

    PS: Hip Hip Hooray!! Maybe he should bust out “2-4-6-8 Who do we appreciate!”

    PPS: Jack, please try to keep your pending history of the Bengal Lancers to less than 1500 words.

  4. Based on something i read on another site, it sounds like there might be a new commit from the state of Arizona. Anybody know who we’ve been chasing there? I’m trying to get more info.

  5. Alex Kline ?@TheRecruitScoop

    2013 Oregon State commit LJ Westbrook will take a postgrad year at Lee Academy (ME) next year. He remains committed to the Beavers.

  6. Angie Machado ?@AngieMachado1

    Recruiting getting crazy everywhere. BYU picked up JUCO center after Kearsley committed as center.

    Funny because I thought Kearsley was convinced to sign at BYU because he’d have the ability to play starting center as a freshman?

  7. The iPhone analogy doesn’t work well with me; an iPhone 4 in the 70’s would be a paperweight because of the context (lack of supporting infrastructure, operating system, etc.)

    Chip Kelly is often lauded as a “genius.” Does a Chip Kelly dropped into Corvallis as the coach of OSU football in year 14 of the 28 year losing streak look like a genius (instead of an iPhone in the 70;s)? Does he make a difference? While the context might not be the same, I’d suggest he would not be worthless, he’d probably make a marked difference at a slower rate than he did at UO, but faster than Riley.

    I don’t know if Riley’s a victim of his own success so much as what appears to be a lack of motivation for self-improvement as a coach, including identifying and improving weaknesses in himself and his system(s).

    • I suggest he has ably demonstrated the level he is capable of. Usually a winning season, but not the top rung. He cant give you what is beyond his capabilities.

      Still, he did finally manage a fast start. If he keeps that up it might be crow eating time.

        • Next year is ripe for Riley shedding the yard ape from his back… (no reference to any persons living or dead is intended..).

          Cement his place in OSU history, …..while angrybeavs takes credit for prodding him into it…lol… I can see the Wikipedia entry now….

  8. Mike Cavanaugh ?@CoachCavOSU

    Great day to be a Beaver. One week until signing day. Can’t wait. The Beavs are on the rise. #GoBeavs

  9. BeavBlazer BeavBlazer @BeavBlazer 31 Jan
    @AngieMachado1 Also, just read Titus Failauga has committed to Beavs. Can you confirm?

    Angie Machado Angie Machado
    @AngieMachado1
    @BeavBlazer that is what we’re talking about in the lodge

  10. So… the Ducks fly to Palo Alto and back tonight on chartered corporate jet to play Stanford. Home in their own beds and back in class tomorrow. Return to play Cal rested and ready on Friday. Enjoy catered meals and extra-large seats.

    Presumably the Beavs fly Southwest out of PDX, join the boarding stampede, sit in cramped seats, by the fat lady and get peanuts and free soda’s. BDC probably redeemed some frequent flyer miles for a few freebies.

    Two programs going in different directions at entirely different altitudes. JB

    • Maybe you could donate some of your coaching salary back so they could afford a new jet? Or at least some endless popcorn to go with the peanuts and soda.

  11. Riley is putting together one of his best recruiting classes at OSU. With a good finish in the next several days it could definitely finish in the Top 35. Will Riley finish this class strong or miss out on a couple of targets late? The rebranding and strong season last year both seem to be working in OSU’s favor.

    OSU signing a nice recruiting class:
    http://beaverbyte.com

  12. on a bright note Stanford butt raped the ducks by 24 in hoops tonight. Thank you Stanford! In football and now mens hoops! That’s what their coddled pussy athletes get for traveling to the bay area and back on a private jet the same day.

    • That game wasn’t as bad as the Duke loss to Miami. The final differential was similar. But there wasn’t the same feel of piranha’s in a frenzy… for two hours.

      Maples is actually pretty lame for a venue. They like to think they can be the Dukies of the West, but they never got beyond smelling like a Target store when you first walk in… you know… that plastic cheese, wrinkled dog, stale popcorn smell that even movie theaters know how to remove?

      Maples is the Nickelback of college arenas. It really sucks. But because it’s sold to the world as “Stanford,” it somehow gets street cred.

      And if you want to defend Nickelback, don’t. They suck. But don’t take my word for it. Take the word of a complete stranger.
      http://lefthandhorror.com/2012/04/10/why-nickelback-sucks-as-explained-by-an-80-year-old-dude/

      • I watched that Duke/Miami game. Piranha feeding frenzy is appropriate. They smelled blood, Duke had a couple injuries and they got slaughtered.
        I wouldn’t go as far as to say Duke sucks though. I’d take any of their players over any of ours any day.

        • Dude! It was 15-13 Duke, then the next thing I knew it was 37-15 Miami. I haven’t seen anything like that since my eighth-grade year when we played a new school and we led 43-0 before they finally scored. I felt bad then, and I felt bad for Coach K while he was sitting there looking like he was about to cry.

          I’m thinking some Duke players got in some running at practice for the next few days.

          I don’t know about trading “any” of their players. Most of theirs? Sure. But if you look at how Gomis handled the youngest Plumlee a couple years ago, I would take Gomis (sans injury). And I think Collier would be a classic Coach K player in style and function… as would LMW. Other than that, I think you’re correct.

          • Gomis vs Plumlee #3. Tough call. 2 guys who have had injuries prevent them from getting on the court. All I know is Plumlee #3 was being touted as the most talented of the Plumlees a few years ago, and Plumlee #2 is pretty damn good. (should be a top 10 draft pick this year).

          • I agree.

            Gomis shut #3 down with defense. I’m not pretending that he has O skills sufficient to be even a half-star. But his defense is spectacular against supposedly spectacular players. It’s a nice tool in the box.

    • so according to rivals and scout we are 9th and 10th in the Pac-12 in recruiting. And this is going to be one of the best classes ever for OSU? How in the fuck is Utah’s class ranked ahead of ours?

    • I missed the second pararagraph. I knew Muir was leaving Hawai’i two weeks ago, but the consensus had him going to GaTech.

      He’d be a three-for-two guy with D1 experience. Obviously, he would be a two-for-two due to transfer… unless he was a better student than Rhys Murphy was.

      There’s nothing wrong with this kid. In fact, he’s by far their best O-lineman… and still so raw.

        • Yeah… sitting for 2013. He redshirted in 2011 and started at LT in 2012. And he was by far their best O-lineman this past year. But weird things have been occurring at Manoa since Chow took over, and a lot of players are jumping off. I’m not sure if it’s normal attrition for a new staff or something more. But losing your starting LT to any school where he’s willing to sit a year is interesting… to be kind.

          Imagine… if Banker had been hired there Muir and others might be staying… or not. That job might be open again soon if Chow keeps this up.

          • Chow is an old school, technician. Works good most of the time as coordinator, but the head guy has to be a good communicator and a little bit of a salesman. Not his strong points. There was a reason he never got a HC gig despite a glowing resume as an OC.

          • Let’s be honest.

            Chow has only had success as an assistant to great coaches. Sure, he called plays for eons under Edwards. Sure, Sark looked all-world for a year. Sure, USC made him look good for a couple years. But has he been the reason?

            Edwards obviously saw Chow’s ability. After 25 years on the staff, he finally gave him the OC job.

  13. anyone else feel angry is just trying to get hits this month? I mean dude, its not like you have ads. Not sure why you have all these unneeded topics.

  14. Regarding the original topic, I would say Riley benefits completely from being in the right place at the right time in the football history of Oregon State. Until a generation of boosters, administrators, etc. “die off”, his benchmark, report card or whatever you want to call it will always be measured against 27 years of futility and I think that’s any easy course to pass.

    His mediocrity must be different from Ron McBride’s, Jeff Bower’s, Ralph Friegden, Rick Minter (probably other examples) of head coaches who got their programs to bowl games, stagnated at times and then were shown the door. I’m not saying Riley should have been fired (but it was certainly justifiable), I’m just saying he’s lived a pretty charmed coaching life. Also, firing legacy coaches can be a great move or it can backfire. An AD’s risk aversion must play a big role.

    It’s hard to find another program that compares to Oregon St with an older fan base that is content just not to be an embarrassment anymore. It seems like Northwestern would be a decent examplte as they were just as bad as the Beavers during roughly the same time period. Would Pat Fitzgerald be shown the door after back to back losing seasons? Probably not and NW has actually gone to Rose Bowls since their losing streak. I don’t know the expectations of their fan base.

    Riley picked a good job during a good time period (scholarship parity, diluted bowl system) and will probably ride it to retirement (being a great guy goes a long ways too).

  15. If anyone needs more data whether CR is a very good recruiter and a terrible game coach, please watch a replay of tonight’s game.

    On a positive note, my ex-wife tells me that she will be putting out 100% this weekend to help close out this recruiting class with a big bang.
    According to her, Dashon Hunt may be a 4* performer on the football field but he has plenty of room for improvement on other surfaces.
    P.S. Don’t post this elsewhere until after he signs.

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