18.Sep.2013 Oregon State @ San Diego State

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San Diego State is going with a new QB, Quinn Kaehler, this week. I watched some film on him. He’s a decent looking pocket passer. No threat of rushing, at least on film. He should have some success against the Beavs’ secondary, though since game 1 you can see Nelson improving. If he becomes lockdown, Reynolds stock shoots up and things maybe click.

Beavs, though atrocious on the ground thus far, should be able to run the ball on SDSU. I expect Ward to be serviceable and Brown to average somewhere between 4.0-4.5 YPC. Beavs will probably try to run more this week and try to get the ground game going since they’ll need it the back end of the schedule. If they get in trouble, they can fall back on the passing game.

I expect a short game with 150+ yards on the ground, Mannion a more conservative 250/2TDs, and the defense to look good vs a weak opponent and pocket passer.

The risk is Ranker is bad in games he’s expected to win. Keep expectations low for that reason.

34, 17 Beavs

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  • bone says:
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    I agree with the corners. The last couple games especially the Utah game, teams have not thrown Reynolds way at all and instead testing Nelson and

    • bone says:
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      Continue….. And Martin. Hopefully we can get a look this week at hunt and Scott at corner because Martin continues to struggle.

      • angry angry says:
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        The team would be much better with Hunt. He might take a few lumps like Nelson did, but he has tremendous upside and is a great run stopper (or at least was in HS).

  • carltogr carltogr says:
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    I’m thinkin’ it’ll be closer than 17 spread…..SDSU is tied for first with 5 other teams in the MWC west, and its on the road….just kidding. I expect another shootout, a higher scoring game….

    ….more like 41-23 Da Beavs!!!!

  • whiskeysoakednapkins says:
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    SDSU is not good. They are averaging 13 pts per game. Our defense is just as poor but with a non mobile qb and a more pro style offense this game is more of a blowout than Hawaii. Hawaii’s D is way better than SDSU. Mannion should have a field day against their porous D. Beavs win in a laugher and this one is over by midway through the 3rd quarter due to the fact it’s Riley and rarely do we ever have an outmanned opponent dead and buried by halftime. 44-10 Beavs

    • carltogr carltogr says:
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      I hope so….but the Beavs tend to play up to and down to the opponent at times during the game….lets hope the D doesn’t take any time off, maintain pressure entire game. Be nice to see that unit shutdown SDSU and move into the top 100 in scoring D and/or yards allowed (110th according to ESPN). Its a low bar, but they gotta get to the top 50 showing consistency (by staying there too) to hang with teams in the latter half of the schedule.

    • issaquahbeav says:
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      Also, crowd will be a non-factor, as I think they had maybe 20K people at the last game there? Utah crowd looked pretty good last week, although I did get tired of the crowd shots every 5 minutes with their water-drinking fans flashing the Miami Hurricanes symbol.

      I think the Beavs roll and it’s not even close. 49-10.

  • steveEbeaver says:
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    Run game is better against a weak opponent keeping the D off the field for significant minutes. 42-14 Beavs.

  • wannabeav says:
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    One other very signficant indicator in favor of the Beavs in an OOC game: SDSU has beaten a Pac 8/10/12 team before.

  • Beavblazer Beavblazer says:
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    It’s going to be “Family Weekend” at SDSU this weekend. Seems like the perfect time for the Beavs to be playing there.

    • Beavergopher Beavergopher says:
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      Note to Coach Long; keep Jovan Stevenson away from from daughter, he takes this family shit way too literally.

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    I don’t think Riley will run it that much Angry. He already has shown his propensity for passing over running and now that our RB starter is out it will deter him even more. Either that or the runners will be Ward and Brown in the first half then Stevenson and Tyler Anderson the rest of the way.

    • angry angry says:
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      He’s obsessed with balance, so I think he tries to get the run game going vs this bad defense. If it fails he has them chuck it around the yard, street ball style. We’ll see.

  • locusimperium says:
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    I think the adversity card comes into play. Ward plays inspired. We have a decent game moving the ball on the ground.

  • beaverbeliver says:
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    Go Beavs! Should be a big night for Mannion.

  • Bill says:
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    The offense will use what has been working early on. Expect a whole lot of passing in the first half. Lots of screens and crossing routes. Cooks, Mullaney and Hamlett should get a ton of targets in the first half. Then transition over to a run based offense in the second half with Vaz getting some snaps.

    Less than 10 carries for the RB in the first half. Then 15-20 in the second.

    The defense should get a similar performance to the Hawaii game. It’ll feel very underwhelming because they aren’t dominating.

    38-17.

  • Jack says:
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    Interesting stat:
    https://twitter.com/ATSstats/status/380461985785081857

  • oneoldbeav says:
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    Woods, “the biggest fan who won’t be in SD this week”, gotta love the maturity and focus this kid displays. I don’t believe this can be scripted.

    http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2013/09/oregon_state_football_sitting.html

  • rsteve503 rsteve503 says:
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    I think we get one of our few easy games. Score may not indicate that as regulars get a rest in the second half. We will do some running, and Mannion has another super day, but Vaz sees significant time, 2nd half….. so something like 38–17.

    Still a chance to develop and maybe raise some eyebrows in the latter, tougher part of the season. Like the old Mike Riley coaching, letting the team “find an identity” …. (is that the same as learning how to play by watching other teams?)

  • Jack says:
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    Question:
    Since Banker is viewed as a defensive genius, do we think he’ll be hired away if we turn our defense around yet again?

    I ask this in the context of, “OSU always starts cold then “finds their identity.”

    Defense is the easiest way to “be prepared” for any new season. But we have failed on the big stage for years.

    Would Banker be a better coordinator for a team whose head coach holds him accountable for the first couple games? Would Banker be an elite DC if he was a coach where he was expected to win on day one?

    • Jack says:
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      I’ll take negative votes as a “no.”

    • ObjCritic says:
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      Because Banker’s schemes are “so complex” and take players years to learn, and he tends to “over scheme” beyond the minds of 19-21 year olds (EWU this year, UO in ’08), maybe he ought to be in the pros where players focus full time on football, and there are fewer (as of now) option offenses…

    • ean says:
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      I don’t know, I heard from a decent source though that USC tried to hire away Banker and Cav but they decided to stay at OSU since the USC gig was likely for just 1 year.

      • Jack says:
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        I don’t think anyone is saying these people are really really stupid. He’s just stubborn and stuck.

        If Banker goes somwhere where the head man tells him to have his side ready on day one… or else, does he succeed well beyond anything he’s done here?

  • Jack says:
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    OT… what does Santa have to do to get respect?
    http://today.yougov.com/news/2013/09/17/poll-results-exorcism/

    • Jack says:
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      Or, for that matter, what does the icon of Easter… the Easter Bunny… have to do?

    • Jack says:
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      I would have thought the fairy tale crowd would have said something about this.

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      Exist.

      • Jack says:
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        How dare you say Santa doesn’t exist. You should keep your wrong opinions to yourself.

        It’s not like anyone comes knocking on your door trying to make you believe in something in order to get you to join their cult so they can guilt you into “tithing” (which is tax free and non-profit btw).

        Wait… I think I’m on to something. I think I can start a “church” and get presents from Santa for free. And it wouldn’t just be a one time winter solstice thing. People could give me gifts in the name of Santa all year long.

        All I need is a goofy, really poorly written sci-fi book which justifies my dislike for people with skin colors lighter and darker than mine and outlaws the hunting and killing of reindeer.

        Since Elron is spoken for, I’ll take Ayn Rand. The cult which finds something redeeming in her “works” is ripe for some real direction. If they like a train wreck with magic metals, what would they do for a fat man in a sleigh?

        Who is Santa Claus?

        • VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
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          I liked the message Rand tried to get across in Atlas Shrugged, she just made it extremely tedious to find her point so therefore only people (like myself) that were already primed to hear her ‘message’ really got it. Otherwise that is a portly written book IMO.

          • Jack says:
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            It might have been better received if it was subtitled “Irony: A Hypocrite’s View.”

  • Jack says:
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    OT.. I have to ask… is this the area of the Millicoma River and Marlow Creek? If it is, why do protests need to be made? All the land surrounding it is Weyerhauser land. Why does the state have to subsidize logging?
    http://www.kgw.com/news/Protesters-on-ropes-hang-from-Ore-Capitol-dome-224442581.html

  • Jack says:
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    Now THIS is some “any publicity is good publicity” stuff.
    http://www.nola.com/sugarbowl/index.ssf/2013/09/oregon_state_quarterback_sean.html#incart_river

    • bendbeaver bendbeaver says:
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      Please throw 4 ints and get off everyone’s radar.

      • Jack says:
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        All hail Mary tosses to end the first half of course… just something to show up in the stats as a negative.

    • scotty says:
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      Uh oh
      We cannot handle success and accolades, nor there being a little number next to our name 🙁

      Cool for Sean though 🙂

  • Jack says:
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    Well… DAMN! And DOUBLEDAMN! with the Cooks mention.
    https://twitter.com/RichCirminiello/status/380793419737468928

    • Jack says:
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      Ftr… Cooks is good for a fourth year. He wants to graduate first, and there’s no diminishing his prospect as if he were a RB or QB. But Mannion graduates in the winter (or before?). If he carries this team to a good season without run support, there’s not a pro I can give him for staying.

      • FB fan says:
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        If Mannion is Graduating in December, Wisconsin is probably already recruiting him.

      • Dwill03 Dwill03 says:
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        Yeah. If he keeps the ints at a min. and ends up one of the top 3 pocket passers this year, you’d have to advocate for a jump to the league. Don’t want to risk a Barkley type senior season. Risk>Reward. See what Vanderveen’s got. Should be a good competition between him and Kempt for a couple of years.

  • Jack says:
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    Am hearing Woods might be considering retirement from football. Very small consideration, and if you ask the player he’ll tell you noting but football speak. But it’s on the table.

    I can’t say I disagree. I love the kid. But his health comes first. And this concussion thing scares me more than anything. I will not let my boy play football knowing what I know.

    I hope he recovers to the fullest extent.

    • Beavergopher Beavergopher says:
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      That would be the “luck-o-the Beavs,” finally have some young depth at a position(see O-line) and then lose it to injuries.

    • ObjCritic says:
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      That would be disappointing. He’s is a great kid and seems to be a great teammate. But long-term risks to the brain are nothing to take lightly. I was thinking this was his first concussion at OSU, don’t remember any sidelining him last year(?). But that doesn’t mean they haven’t occurred, even if at less severe levels.

      Guys like Woods and James Rodgers strike me as individuals who could be could recruiters for the program down the road.

    • Beavblazer Beavblazer says:
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      Lindsay Schnell (@LindsayRae19) tweeted at 10:19 PM on Thu, Sep 19, 2013:
      To quote a source within program, “That’s nonsense” RT@BeavBlazer: @JohnCanzanoBFT @LindsayRae19 heard Storm’s considering retiring from FB
      (https://twitter.com/LindsayRae19/status/380924118205337600)

      • Jack says:
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        Just on the table. I’m told he was concussed several times last year. This one was a freak shot to the head. But he can not take many more, freak or not. On the table doesn’t mean anyone is eating from the dish. It’s just on the table.

        And now that I think about it… I think I’ve been discovered.

        Smart.

        • Jack says:
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          Damn! Someone out there knows who I am… just played me good. No more separation between Tyler and the narrator unless I buy someone a nice bottle of scotch. Ouch!

          • Jack says:
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            Yep… email says “played like an XBox in the Nikegon locker room.”

            That’s harsh man. Why you gotta be so mean? 😉

  • Jack says:
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    Living the real dream:
    http://www.oregon.gov/osp/NEWSRL/Pages/news/09_19_2013_update_capitol_protest_arrests.aspx

    I salute these patriots.

  • ObjCritic says:
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    “Top 10 Moments” against Utah:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FS8dBb5yZU

    Didn’t realize how close the winning TD throw was to getting picked…through the hands of the defender thence to Cooks.

    Surprise, few defensive plays…

  • NorCalBeaver NorCalBeaver says:
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    Any angry BEAVS going to the cal game this year? I’d like to meet up for some beers and a tailgate. Also going to the USC game. Not sure if we’ll tailgate at Avery park or the fairgrounds yet. I am far from a “dickhead” “super fan” “Pollyanna”. Would like to meet some of you guys that have given such great info for years now. I’ve just never posted anything. Thank you guys and this site for all the different opinions of beaver athletics. GO BEAVS!!

  • ObjCritic says:
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    Linemakers on OSU at SDSU- “bet the over,” “you pick this one…” Bettors, a strange lot:

    http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/2013-09-19/oregon-state-vs-san-diego-state-point-spread-pick-vegas-odds-lines-injuries

    • Jack says:
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      It looks like they’re on the Beavs up to -10.5 with the over.

      So they’re saying 33 or 34 to 23?

  • Joe Avezzano says:
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    As is Joe Avezzano’s custom, Joe feels it appropriate to point out that it is never a good thing for the oddsmakers to favor OSU and any “Beavers should win easily” talk is dangerous and ill-advised.

    In light of comments Joe has viewed which indicate some folks compare what the coaching staff’s strategy may be now compared to later in the “tough” part of the schedule, it seems the “one game at a time” mindset has been sidelined. Joe hopes the coaches and players are not likewise making the huge mistake of not concentrating 100% of their game prep toward SDSU.

    Similar to Joe’s post before the EWU contest, this is a trap game.

    Joe now returns you to your regularly scheduled prognosticating.

    • Jack says:
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      I don’t think this team thinks there’s any such thing as any more trap games on the schedule. It would surprise me if they didn’t come out and play with effort in each of their games from here on out.

      • Issaquahbeav says:
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        I agree…I think the players are eager to silence the doubters.

      • Joe Avezzano says:
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        Joe agrees completely. The challenge of course is to ensure a certain group of 18-22 year olds keeps their heads on straight.

  • carltogr carltogr says:
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    Wow…similarities between Riley coached Chargers and Beavers….”….Riley must win the stadium where his Chargers blew 14 leads in the final 3 minutes of games….”

    http://www.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/john_canzano/index.ssf/2013/09/canzano_for_oregon_state_and_o.html#incart_m-rpt-2

    • Dwill03 Dwill03 says:
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      Not quite sure that’s an accurate statement regarding Riley and the Beavs. I could be wrong as I’m going off of memory and Saturday feels like it was a long time ago, but I think in the Utah game they flashed a stat saying something to the effect of Riley is around 17-3 when leading after the 3rd quarter. I think the recent Alamo Bowl and Stanford losses give this feeling that they blow leads, but overall due to the solid running game of years past we were good at grinding/closing games out. Just not good a winning going away.

      • Jack says:
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        Along with those two I can think of ASU in 2010 and Utah in 2008. It’s still pretty good number-wise, but there are at least four such losses. Off the top of my head I can only recall being tied at the end of the 3rd in our last two games @UW and I think UCLA in 2010. That’s 0-3 in those games. I’d have to go back and look to see what the complete record is.

        So it’s better to be leading than it is to be tied or losing. There’s a surprise.

        • Jack says:
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          So… since 2003 the record is 67-6 when leading after the 3rd… 6-45 when losing and 2-3 when tied. The losses when leading were Fresno and Wazzu in 2003, LSU in 2004, Utah in 2008 and SU and UT last year. The Fresno loss was the only one of the six losses that was not to a ranked team.

          • Jack says:
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            I don’t know what I was thinking with ASU in 2010. That was obviously a win. Riley is 6-4 against ASU (1-3 @ASU and 5-1 @OSU).

          • carltogr carltogr says:
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            What about leading after the half….? Realizing a lot can happen in a whole half of football, but seems like Beavs tend to take the foot off of the throat in the 3rd….

          • Jack says:
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            I missed one. UCLA in 2007 makes it 67-7 when leading, 6-44 when losing.

            61-9 when leading at the half. Four of those losses we led after three. Six times in ten years we lost a halftime lead in the third quarter (out of 71 games). So once (last year) we lost the lead in the third and still pulled out a win.

            7-42 when losing at the half and 7-3 when tied.

          • osbeavs says:
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            Weren’t we leading in the fourth in the ’09 civil war? I seem to remember punchgate ripping the rose the bowl from our hands as he ran over keaton kristick for the go ahead score. Then masoli clinched it as he ran over Reuben Robinson on 4th down.

          • Jack says:
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            No… leading at the half but losing 34-33 to start the fourth. They kicked a FG then stopped us on 4th and 16. Then Masoli trucked Mitchell (I think) to gain a first on a crucial 4th down to run the clock out.

  • ObjCritic says:
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    SDSU’s starting RB to return to the field Saturday:

    http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2013/09/oregon_state_beavers_rundown_h_3.html

    Good. I want to see OSU’s D have to face SDSU’s best. I expect OSU will win, but for genuine growth and improvement, this D needs to prove itself against the best SDSU has to offer.

  • ean says:
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    A lot of money going on the Aztecs is forcing the spread down. Now -8 on Bovada. Do the pro sports bettors know something I don’t. Seems to me like a game the Beavs should cover.

  • Jack says:
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    Looking for fantasy advice?
    http://rotoexperts.com/52949/sean-mannion-brandin-cooks-will-light-it-up-again-in-week-4/

  • Beavblazer Beavblazer says:
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    Anybody know if they’ll be debuting the orange unis this weekend?

  • oneoldbeav says:
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    Joel Skotte working with the 2’s Wednesday, Bray says no real significance to the move. Expect to see Skotte share time in the game Saturday.

    http://www.gazettetimes.com/blogs/beavers-blog/skotte-working-with-twos-on-wednesday/article_5d9c6368-20da-11e3-b5aa-001a4bcf887a.html

    • mckalk says:
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      I’m assuming the 2’s are aggressively practicing falling on the ground after minimal or no contact from blockers and then flailing at the running back as he blazes by them. I believe the drill is called “The Pankey”.

    • HopefulBeav says:
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      Gotta assume Bray is behind the move. I’ve been very disappointed watching Skotte this season but I assumed we’d be stuck with him no matter what since Riley and Banker haven’t always been the quickest with personnel changes.

  • Keith Pankey says:
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    Joel Skotte really sucks bad. He is awful

  • Beaver Byte says:
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    Byte has teamed up for a Q&A with San Diego Sports Domination. OSU shouldn’t have too large of problems with the Aztecs as their secondary makes OSU’s look good and considering Eastern Washington that is saying a lot. Steven Nelson is starting to come on so the biggest concern is stopping mobile threats.

    SDSU doesn’t have a burner QB so Banker should perform along the lines of how he did against Hawaii with the road atmosphere making things only slightly more difficult. The SDSU RB is back from an injury and has talent so here’s to hoping Dylan Wynn can have a real impact in the game instead of just lip service in defense of our underperforming defensive coordinator.

    Cookie Monster will get a full serving from Mannion with Mullaney and Hamlett also making nice contributions. The OSU running game will be lukewarm again and held to just under 100 yards.

    GameDay: Oregon State vs San Diego St.
    http://beaverbyte.com

  • osbeavs says:
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    Going to the game this weekend. Any food/place recommendations for my san diego visit?

  • bendbeaver bendbeaver says:
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    Dear Richard Mullaney (I know you’re reading,

    Since the blood of Shane Morales flows through your veins, please bring back the Beaver Chomp after one of your two touchdowns Saturday.
    Thanks.

  • Eric says:
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    This game looks like a big mismatch on paper. The beaver offense should steamroll a very suspect SDSU secondary. I think the effectiveness of the pass is going to set up for some better (can’t get much worse) running. I’m excited to see Chris Brown come in for some plays and hopefully make a great impression in his first action. QB for SDSU is not mobile so that bodes well for the Beaver D (remember the Hawaii game). There are a lot of question marks around the new SDSU QB on how he could perform since he hasn’t played much. He could suffer or he could rise to the occasion and really not much to tell you that either isn’t entirely possible. That said, I don’t think it matters either way how their QB does. The beaver offense has way too much firepower for SDSU to handle. Look for another 400 yard passing day from Mannion and 150+ yards from Cooks. Vaz plays the 4th quarter. OSU 55 SDSU 20

  • Calibeav says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: +1 (from 3 votes)

    Anyone else headed to the game today?? Ill be tailgating somewhere in Qualcomm look for the beaver nation flag.. Stop by for a brew or brat.

  • VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: +1 (from 5 votes)

    TO: Defensive players all units

    FROM: Alleged D Coordinator Mark (stop callling me Wanker) Banker

    Today’s coaching points: 1.) Stay home 2.) read your keys and 3.) wrap up. Ok…enough boring coaching stuff. We’re in San Diego let’s hit the beach! The bus will leave promptly at 12:00. We will leave directly to Qulacom at around 3:30. I think kickoff is 4:30, so we should be good.

    Strict two brat limit due to NCAA regulations. Bring your own sunscreen and floaties.

    SDSU sucks. Sean and the offensive boys will put up an easy 60+. So when we give up our usual 48, no big deal. We’ve got this one in the bag…let’s enjoy San Diego!

    PS: Whoever did the old shaving cream envelope trick under my door last night is in big trouble. Not funny.

  • Beavergopher Beavergopher says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

    Rodents 1, Mountain West 0
    Make it 2-0 Beavs
    Guy that tailgates next us, “4 and 0; still in running for the national championship LOL.”

    • Beavblazer Beavblazer says:
      VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
      Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

      I heard Gophers Go-four and-0 more tham once already today. Congrats. What’s the northern equivalent of In-n-Out?

      • Beavergopher Beavergopher says:
        VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
        Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

        Culvers, but since it is a Wisconsin chain, that ain’t happening.

  • ??? ?? says:
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

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