Okay guys, since it’s going to be a weird month or two, let’s kick it off with a general thread and see where things go.
Have at it.
Okay guys, since it’s going to be a weird month or two, let’s kick it off with a general thread and see where things go.
Have at it.
1st. Go beavs
Ya shit is crazy, stay safe out there.
Is the only active sport left with a Beav connection still the Mexican Baseball League and Luke Heimlich? I need to bookmark the live stream if there is one. Desperate times call for desperate measures!
Nope,
Tecolotes Dos Laredos, Mexican Baseball League postpone season
“Being in the unique position of being the only professional baseball team with home fields in two countries, the Tecolotes made clear that they will abide by the orders of federal authorities in both countries.”
https://www.lmtonline.com/sports/article/Tecolotes-Dos-Laredos-Mexican-Baseball-League-15132272.php
And then there were none!
I’ll do a sports topic,
Was waiting for the bracket but that’s moot. Of the coaches OSU was considering after Robinson. None were making the tourney this year in any projection.
Howland – basically needed to win the sec tourney.
Musselman – same as howland.
Terry Porter – hasn’t done anything at Portland.
Hopkins – has two first rounders on the team and finishes last.
Stoudamire – got a winning record this year, took him 4 years but not close to a tourney bid.
Lionel hollins – never left the pro ranks and wasn’t a serious candidate but I do remember his name being mentioned a bunch.
So basically, two of the coaches who were candidates have done better than Tinkle in the last 5 years but they sucked this year. WT is right in the middle. Musselman did good at Nevada but we’ll see how he fares in a power 5 conf. Didn’t get it done in a weak sec this year. Once Hopkins got a raise, he crapped out with more talent than most pac12 teams. He didn’t sign anyone for next year to replace the two 1 and dones.
My thoughts are Tinkle gets one more year and if it’s bad, he’s out. If he gets a tourney bid, he’ll prob get anther extension. Overall, winning record but no tourney, no change.
Next season will be the last of the coaches’ sons if Ethan stays, so it seems like it will be a good evaluation point. We will know if Tinkle has developed any additional talent by then. We know what happened the season Lil’ Tinks was injured. I’m not sure Barnes will pay for any buyout if next year is a complete meltdown, so he may get until the end of his contract.
Sometimes players just need room to breathe especially in basketball. Hopefully Lucas and hunt can step up their games by getting the ball in their hands more often. They showed flashes of being good pac 12 players.
The FED cut interest rates to 0 and announced QE4 (or 5 if you count Repo Madness).
We’re so fucked. Got metal? Hilarious all the fear of Bernie stuff given Trump is now officially the biggest Socialist in history.
Logic says markets should spike on this heroin injection, but honestly it spooks me they’re this desperate and panicked, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a huge sell off, either. Should be an interesting open to metal and future markets.
Time to refinance, Everything…..
The interesting thing is banks don’t want your home or car loans. This is why they continually get sold. The only reason they’re willing to re-fi them is they can sell them to suckers/pensions on the secondary market who know nothing about finance or real interest rates compared to nominal rates. Those investors walked away from MBS auctions last week after all the refis, so they weren’t interested. This is why mortgage rates have actually been rising despite lower Federal Funds rates. I highly doubt you’ll get a lower rates this week vs last week. If anything it will be more. This makes sense, because if you were a lender would you give money out knowing it’s monopoly money and you ran out of suckers/pensions to peddle it to? Expect rates to rise….counter intuitive but very likely.
This jives with the stories we heard here about people having their lender balk and cancel refis at the closing table last week.
Wish they’d forgive all interest on student loans for a spell.
But that would be “socialist”, even though Trump is now the biggest Socialist in history (most spending in a first term). I guess corporate socialism/bailouts don’t count to the people who have had their minds won over by Fox. They’d rather the downtrodden, poor, and middle class get fucked over rather than a multinational corporation.
For the record, they will forgive all student loans one day, likely soon. If they want good demographics and family formation it’s the only out.
Speaking of demographics, watch closely for the quarantine baby boom.
Still waiting to close. No cancelled loan yet
And we get a huge sell off in futures, with markets -5% and circuit breakers being tripped.
Plunge protection team likely having a meeting on how to jack up futures during this down time.
You seeing the trade volumes this morning? Holy hell there’s some people with massive backing doing some fine manipulation.
Good to see that highly reactionary stimulus (based on stick market not economy) has stopped the slide.
What would you say to a guaranteed retirement fun option. 4% returns per year backed by the feds. Money can be used for infrastructure/education and we could reduce the amount of cash fund managers toss around for funsies. Not to mention eliminate the fees for millionaire middle men.
Can’t wait to hear about record CEO compensation in 6 months. I’m so sick of these bailouts and babying super powerful companies. How about stimulus building infrastructure or simply giving everyone some cash? None of this bull shit giving to the rich helps anyone but private helicopter manufacturers.
Now we have zero stimulus options left because we are reactionary about corrections to the longest bull market in history? This is incredibly stupid.
How about a real free market? Let these irresponsible Giants pay for leeching the country and let the void be filled by new players. Too big to fail is complete horse shit and a contradiction of their ‘ideology’. No more cash for the rich, pick yourself up by your designer velvet boot straps and stop stealing my taxes.
For anyone who thinks I’m sour grapes ( I am): 1.5 trillion dollars is ~$7000 for every adult in the US. That’s a shitload of taxes and if that was given to the people would be a massive stimulus.
What’s most frustrating is people don’t realize this is corporate socialism, which is even more pathetic/amoral than regular socialism. At least with regular socialism poor people get money. People are like “We can’t elect Bernie he’s a socialist!” and meanwhile we now have the biggest socialist in American history sitting there with people thinking he’s one of the great Capitalists. Lol
Yeah people shit he bed over to Obama putting 800 bn into infrastructure during an actual recession. We just put twice that much into middle men who produce nothing.
I guess I shouldn’t expect idiots to do socialism correctly. Specially shit stains with zero humanity or morality.
I’m not a believer in Socialism, mostly because the math doesn’t work, but at least do bottom up vs top down socialism. Having socialized loses for wealthy people paid for by the poor and middle class via inflation, and then cutting poor people off food stamps…that’s just not a good look. They can get away with a lot of this because inflation is a hidden tax people don’t see or understand. It’s all very amoral on one hand and flat out shitty on the other. And the party doing this claims to be Christians no less. What would Jesus do? Yeah he’d give rich people more bread and fish and cut off the poor or make them pay for the rich’s fish and bread. Okay. Good luck explaining that at the gates…
See, UBI not sounding so nuts now. $1000/month for each adult for 6 months would put actual money in actual people’s hands and cost less.
Month or two? The most optimistic take I’ve ever heard on this website.
Haha. Well I do think warmer weather will curb things at least…
The rate of increase may slow, but until there’s a vaccine or herd immunity kicks in, it’ll be bad news.
One of the leading virologists in the world, Dr. Christian Drosten, the guy who first discovered SARS-CoV-1, created the test for SARS-CoV-2, first sequenced its genome and and probably knows more about it than anyone on the planet, thinks this disease peaks from June through August.
But, we can hope.
Yeah. June sounds right to me based on the numbers involved and other information.
It likely comes back in October or November. There’s a small window here to find a vaccine. Apparently a German company found one, and the US is trying to buy it. Google that if interested. I’m not sure if the vaccine info is true, but if so it’s an interesting development.
Actually, I’ll just link the article I read since it’s in my history: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/15/trump-offers-large-sums-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine
That’s a sad article on many levels. If there truly is a vaccine, we should all be sharing it immediately and then compensating the maker later.
The Chinese are on the downward slope of new cases right now. So that’s what 3-4 months of rise before it starts to turn? I would assume May will be the peak unless they shutdown the country completely for a few weeks.
Never trust Chinese numbers, or any government with economic/political incentive. That includes our numbers.
Apple last week reopened most of their stores in China and in the past couple of days closed all of their stores in Europe and USA. That tells me the numbers coming out of China NOW are prob somewhat accurate. If we can get a hold of this thing (big if) then we probably get over the hump May-June.
That would be good…but I never trust China. Maybe Apple is making an error trusting China? I’d like to see how Apple is assessing that situation. Boots on the ground testing the Chinese people or just trusting government numbers?
Highly recommend reading The Hundred Year Marathon, Poorly Made in China, On China, etc. Many good books on what they’re doing over there. One thing I agree with Trump about is we should get off China.
three months. Patient Zero in Wuhan went to a doctor on December 10th. I think we’re about 6 weeks behind China’s trend line. The next four weeks could be brutal. The long term goal here is avoiding the break down in civil society. A brawl broke out on a cruise ship in the South Pacific that can’t land or debark passengers.
Remember Peak Oil? I think we have seen “Peak China” and that’s a good thing.
Those are Chinese numbers confirmed by WHO.
For now, I recommend settling down, going to Amazon Prime, and watching the entire “The Expanse” series — or Jack Ryan if you don’t like Si Fy
Been watching “The Expanse”. Very entertaining.
On the eligibility topic,
Don’t think winter athletes will get any back unless they were injured during the year. They could get a redshirt. So Brown could get another year, maybe Aquino if she ever plays. Probably not Tudor. Don’t think any men’s players would be eligible.
Spring athletes will get a year back. Maybe rosters can be expanded but without support for additional cost of scholarships it’ll be hard. Schools like OSU could be hit harder as they may not be able to afford it.
Baseball won’t be affected much since there are few seniors and they’ll want to get into pro ball. I would think there would be roster expansion here.
It’s the right decision to give back eligibility but it’ll stunt the incoming freshman playing time and development.
I would think coaches and admins can help out by deferring some of their salaries to help pay for students athletes. Still get paid in full when things get better.
Going to talk to the guy that was mist involved with the latest iteration of Oregon State’s football uniforms in the fall when hopefully things have subsided and as long as we are playing Fall football. That only feels like a 40% or so probability right now though unfortunately.
Any thoughts on elements you want to see in a future redesign in 4 or 5 years if I am able to get in on the effort?
Am a Nike employee so think I can give and provide some input from real fans to help deliver what Beaver Nation wants to see in the branding.
Bra unis where we can actually see nipples, but put them on the cheerleaders instead of the football players??
This is forward thinking^^^^
#freethenipple
Remember what it was like when our biggest concern was uniform designs? Those were the days!
Kind of like in 2001 when before 9/11 our biggest problem was shark attacks off the Australian coast.
Um, dial up internet staying connected? That was a bigger problem then sharks.
Real Benny!
Just make them look like men playing a tough sport, not runway models.
Just clean, no BS crazy designs
An epidemiologist just followed me on the AB Twitter. I guess I’m cross-posting too much and infecting my brand.
Some positive news. My 76 year old mom who was battling a pretty nasty case of pneumonia the past few weeks seems to be on the upswing and back to feeling normal.
She didn’t get hospitalized, so never was actually tested for Covid19, so we may not know for awhile if that is what she had, or if it was an extreme coincidence.
On the downside, I’m fighting symptoms of fatigue and my body went through some extreme chills last night around bed time. Pretty unusual feelings for me, as I’m generally a very healthy/able bodied 40-something. So far, I’m mostly feeling normal respiratory wise and no sign of any fever, but as soon as some symptoms creep up, it’s very difficult to not let your mind wander.
Oh, it looks like we have a new football commit!
If you suddenly stop posting, we’ll do an obituary thread for you.
At least he’ll be missed.
I was talking to my mom tonight and asked her what her symptoms were early on and how they progressed. First thing she said was she got pretty severe chills a couple days before things kicked in and started progressing.
Damn it…
Henry Buckles is the new commit. OL/wrestler from Hood River area. He has visited OSU several times over the past year.
https://twitter.com/H_Buckles/status/1239341084540452865?s=19
Is this good? 247 has him as a 3 star, but his only offer is San Jose.
Good? I dunno, but that wrestling background is usually a plus. May be the kind of guy who’ll benefit from coach M.
ADD: I see he’s got a 3.71 GPA and a State Championship in Shot Put.
Fair enough.
Skeptical but haven’t watched film (does he even have any??).
247 rates him as the top OL in the state. That doesn’t always equate to all Pac12, but should be a good building block at the very least.
Watched his film. He’s playing tackle but the recruiting services list him at g or c which is correct to where he profiles in college. Plays better moving forward than backward.
Low three star because of the competition he plays against. Not the best. If he becomes more athletic before next year, could be a high 3 star/low 4 star after his Sr year. He carries some bad body weight that if he loses, could become a road grader. Good frame, just needs to reshape a bit.
Redshirt year and then he’ll be right in the mix of things.
60′ shotput during indoor and 170′ discus throw as a sophomore. He’s an elite track athlete that’s for sure. He’s explosive and very coordinated for his age and size. Love the size, if this is our new ‘project’ for OL I’m feel pretty happy. 10/10 name, good job parents!
Shout-out to Linepro football and OSU alum Alex Linnenkohl for helping develop this guy.
That’s awesome. Love me an alumni pipeline.
Anyone recall who tipped Smith off to Jermar Jefferson?
It was Housh
Hear our announcement? Funny money for everyone!* Yeehawww!
*By “everyone” we mean everyone rich, of course
Hey fed I’m a millennial and part of the shrinking middle class struggling along, can I get some help??
Ohhh wait I remember, the answer is go fuck yourself if you don’t have a trust fund. If only I could be self made through hard work like the president =(.
Mitt Romney and some moderate Repub friends in the senate are trying to build support for a Yang-eqsue “freedom dividend” handout of $1k to everyone. Also, Larry Kudlow was teasing something similar in a separate interview today.
In all seriousness, this is how monetary stimulus should work; it should be split between systemic institutions that will harm most everyone if they fail, and individuals who are also being harmed by weakening economic conditions. Don’t just rely on things trickling down, work the opposite approach, too. This seems like it would be the most politically advantageous approach so I’m not sure why we haven’t done it here.
#HumanityFirst
(Still flying the Andrew Yang banner, sorry)
Yang has been really impressive as a show host. Like him a lot. Socialism isn’t a good idea, but he has a good heart.
And, great news, he’s not a socialist. :^)
Apparently UFC, Mexican soccer, and horse racing are still a go.
Marble racing is every bit as entertaining as actual sports.
https://twitter.com/davdchristmas/status/1239196410857340933?s=09
That baby blue marble has spunk. That was entertaining.
I’ve actually watched that before, it is strangely entertaining
Mexican soccer just got postponed
Freeze on marble racing as well…
Remember, COVID-19 can remain alive on inanimate objects for up to three days, MARBLES INCLUDED.
That was highly engaging. Really makes you wonder if sports boils down to simple drama and a good play by play guy.
You called?
Pretty nice commit by Buckles, even though this kid really struggled vs highschool talent. Looks like coach Smith followed the OSU OL recruiting blueprint pretty well and when/if he gets here in 2021, this Buckles kid could easily be a real contributor 4-6 years after that. Look for Buckles to make a HUGE impact in 2027!
I think the fever from covid is making you hysterical
at least WWE is still going on..without fans… looks like they are practicing… So I have something live to watch
If we don’t use this disaster as a catalyst to significantly reduce our foreign dependence, we will have proved ourselves idiots…. So look for everything to still be made in China after this is all over :/
Yep. The one thing Trump had dead-on is we need to get off China.
Agree with both of you.
People will buy whatever is cheaper. Not too many companies are going to move production over here if it costs more.
They won’t necessarily move to the US, they’ll just move elsewhere. Even before COVID, a lot of companies were shifting out of China and into Vietnam. The “trade war” and now COVID are showing people that they have to have diversified supply chains. For some this will mean having suppliers closer to end markets; for others it will just mean not having everything in China.
The other source of most viruses…..SE Asia.
Or to learn how to curb CO2 emissions…
Was talking to a relative down in San Jose. The Bay Area is being put on 24 hour lockdown for 3 weeks starting midnight tonight. 3 freaking weeks! People can’t leave their homes, with few exceptions (food, doctor visits)
The frightening thing is, at the current way things are trending, it may not be long before this becomes a standard in other highly populated areas.
That’s an overreach in my opinion. If bars and restaurants are making sure their employees aren’t sick and grown fucking adults who are also not sick decide they want to get a burger and a beer that’s their decision to make.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-80-percent-cases-are-mild-2020-2
There’s currently no way to know if someone is sick. Literally the only logical steps to take to reduce deaths is isolation and distancing.
I own 2 businesses in the food and alcohol sector… This is going to be interesting.
Does the liquor store count as ‘food’? Because that would suck if they close those bitches!
Quick everyone panic buy booze.
Can you adapt to take out options? Maybe partner up with some door dash, Uber or Lyft drivers?
Hey Alpha, considering offering gift certificates, etc. Just an idea to get some revenue now and then good business down the road (if people come to redeem the gift certificate, they will spend more on that visit).
Also, takeout and delivery if possible.
Now o live has an update about Luke, I think olive just cut and copied his interview with lmt, I can’t imagine he ever would talk to them, bob lundenberg tweeted, a little update as well
Lundeberg apparently spoke with Luke in the last two weeks. But, yeah, the Big Zero did a short cut/paste; at least they had the “class” to link the original LMT article.
Eggers reports on the search for a new wrestling coach, gives lots of history of the program.
Says, “One thing that will help attract a quality coach is the OSU Wrestling Endowment Fund, which totals $5.1 million, making it the most active and highest-funded endowment at Oregon State for any sport.”
https://pamplinmedia.com/pt/12-sports/456633-372117-oregon-states-plan-for-a-new-wrestling-coach-and-for-a-return-to-national-prominence
Wait, didn’t some asshole on this very board say ‘no one cares about wrasslin’? Apparently that bonehead not good at many things.
Pettibonehead perhaps less “endowed” and envious? During his tenure, about $120K spent on football…
Still don’t care. Quick without cheating… who won NCAA wrestling championship last year?
Penn state.
Anyone who didn’t have to wrestle
That would be me. Thank you. Didn’t use the term “wrasslin” hate lazy language. Cheers!
Marcus Mariota now a Las Vegas Raider. As a raiders fan, not sure how to feel about such a thing.
What’s his clipboard grip like? How’s his delivery on his “attaboy Derek”s? Does he quickly build rapport with the water boys?
Part of me wonders if they are going to cut Carr and sign Brady with this move. Of course I imagine TB wants to go to a team with receivers
Some people think the Raiders may take two in the first. With all the defense they picked up yesterday, doesn’t seem out of the question. Based on last year, Mayock seems to know what he’s doing, he earned a lot of capital with last year’s draft class.
Angry hoping Jets sign just man crush Brady?!?
Seriously, I know he’ll want a team w/reasonable play off chances. Where will he go?
Hope so!!
I think he will crash and burn without cheating Bill.
If the Jets continue to shore up their line they might not be that bad.
Or they will overpay someone like Alex Lewis…. Doh
You guys who are in charge of hiring/firing people, are you doing either right now?
Are you thinking about doing either soon?
That has crossed my mind. Had to let one guy go, but not for pending workload or lack thereof.
Nationally, probably won’t see layoffs in numbers for 4-6 months. Right now it is business as (un)usual.
I think most are trying to furlough people. Hoping for govt assistance to get through the next few months.
Any business that supports infrastructure shouldn’t see any drop, might have to hire.
What Bill said, we are going to try doing take out starting today though, so hopefully that can keep paychecks for my employees. My biggest concern besides my employees, is being able to find the raw goods necessary to continue operations, if I can no longer find them, then jobs will have to be suspended until I can.
I’m a chef of a restaurant in Portland. Obviously we had to lay off our entire staff. The talk is a 4 week window, then reevaluate the situation, but I imagine it will take faaaar longer to reopen/rehire.
We’re hiring. We even supply personal PPE.
Are you a pimp?
I work in Senior housing and without government assistance this will bankrupt the whole industry. Increased cost (labor&supplies), in increase death rate, and state imposing rules that have stopped people from moving in.
I shudder to think of the senior housing industry going even further downhill.
Rumor is Trump and Republicans about to do MMT within a week or so. Looks like we didn’t need Bernie or radical Dems after all to get a socialist.
Sounds like just a one-time measure. “Sorry we forced you to stay home from work and caused billions of dollars of economic damage. Here’s a thousand bucks.”
Modern problems require modern solutions
Why bother? A teenager from Scandinavia told me the world is ending in six years from climate change. That’s what keeps me up at night.
Can somebody invent solar powered toilet paper already!
25 years of climate change jokes haven’t solved much.
Edit: since passive aggressive jokes aren’t really constructive here is a good resource for understanding climate change for anyone who wants to refresh or challenge their world view. Using Google scholar and searching climate change is an interesting voyage too, the amount of evidence and studies is pretty impressive.
https://www.globalchange.gov/climate-change
more GOLD from BeeG!
I don’t get giving every 1k… Another 300 billion on the deficit. Why not just remove the unemployment waiting period and up food assistance? Give the money to those directly impacted by this. I mean I will cash my check if it comes (might look into donating it actually) but i don’t need the money at all.
I’m going to buy a 4 pack of toilet paper with my $1000.
Ean, here’s a couple of people it might help:
Small business owners that wouldn’t receive unemployment
Servers and others in the gig economy
That’s great for you for sure. For about 60% of Americans this is a very serious financial problem.
https://www.fool.com/retirement/2019/08/11/most-americans-are-living-paycheck-to-paycheck-sur.aspx?source=eptmdelnk0000001&utm_campaign=article&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=usa-today
That is what I was saying though, give those that lost their jobs unemployment before the 1 week waiting period. But OJ makes a good point about independent contractors.
I don’t think the unemployment system can process that many claims at once. The waiting period would be pointless most likely due to delays. There are entire sectors getting devestated right now. Travel, food services, luxary services, entertainment are all essentially shutdown and will be for acouple weeks. I haven’t seen an estimate of how many people are losing wages right now but it’s definitely more than the social security administration can work through efficiently. This is even more true with SSA offices closing and having people work from home. If you are in a state that requires in person then you risk contracting/spreading the disease just to get unemployment.
It’s a mess
Today we see what Nuke was concerned about, state unemployment systems are overburdened by new claims and shutting down.
OJ, where you seeing that? Oregon? Any links?
I heard it on NPR this morning but I found a few states with issues…
New York:
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-state-unemployment-website-crashes-20200316-ccc6fqalgrf3ree3o5zvi54ite-story.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html
Colorado:
https://www.cpr.org/2020/03/17/unprecedented-wave-of-unemployment-hits-colorado/
Kentucky:
https://www.whas11.com/article/news/local/system-troubles-as-thousands-try-to-file-for-unemployment-in-kentucky/417-a42a4c8d-c40d-4787-b25f-67ede4d0f74b
I have also heard from people in TN and Missouri that applications will not even be reviewed for 3 weeks.
He’s saying he doesn’t need the money, so means test it and give his portion to people who do rather than hand out 1k to all. It’s generous and most people don’t think that way, so good for him.
Yeah that is good, mostly unsure what mechanism would be effective? It might be the least costly and effective right now to send money out and hope people spend it well. Most will be injected straight into the economy paying for essentials I would assume.
Yeah that is what I was saying. But there have been some good counter points here.
I was thinking about this earlier and if they give out $1,000, how do people who don’t need it and want to give it away find those folks who could use it? There’s so many service and restaurant jobs here, I think we’re going to get slammed. If you know Bend, just tonight at 6:00 I was driving through downtown and there were only 7 cars parked on Wall St. between Newport and Franklin (the whole 3 block stretch). Crazy. I was doing my part by stocking up on gummies and getting to-go beer at Boss Rambler.
Really, if the $1000 thing does happen you spending it quickly with local businesses is probably the fastest way to get it in to the hands of folks that need it.
Someone needs to develop a growler delivery service ASAP.
@bendbeav – i live on the east side and the only place with any action is Costco. TP zombies are still out in force.
People who don’t need the money helping those that do is best case imo. If that fails spending locally ad much as possible will increase cash flow I’m the community.
Feeling a little overwhelmed at the moment. Now my dad(also 76) is showing symptoms of Pnuemonia and is coughing up blood. Came on pretty suddenly last night.
I know you keep hearing this over and over and I want to reinforce, even if you are healthy currently, try your best to limit your exposure to others. 2 parents dealing with this simultaneously is going to be extremely challenging. And I have 95 year old great grandmother who I fear won’t be able to cope without visits from my parents.
Sorry to drop some sovering reality here in the sports blog.
Take care
Sorry to hear that. We set my 96 yo mom up with a tablet to allow some contact and to be able to check on her after she had a serious medical problem that required a three month stay in a rehabilitation center. She was 100% still with it mentally, but had some tech issues that gave us all some good laughs. Good luck.
Sorry to hear that. Wishing for the best.
Salubrity to them. Keep us updated.
That’s so much to process at once NB. Feel free to reach out on Twitter If I can help (research, local info, send you some door dash).
I posted this way up in a different thread but it’s pertenent to this one too. We have no way to know who is a carrier and smokers, elderly and immunocompromised (people like me) are in serious danger. Please practice isolation and distancing when possible.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-80-percent-cases-are-mild-2020-2
This is really appreciated Nuc. Please stay safe and I offer the same if you ever need it.
My pops heard from his doctor after about 6-7 hours of wait for a return call. They told him to visit the ER and get tested. That will take some time, he’s there currently and says most of the people in the ER are there for the same reason. Healthcare system must be getting hammered right now.
I’ve been fortunate that my symptoms are really pretty minimal and have stayed that way since Saturday. No way of really knowing if they’re even remotely related, so I’ll just continue to work from home deal with life’s curveballs as they come.
I’ve got a friend whos an er doc in Lebanon. He just got asked to do 2-8-7 which is 2 8 hour shifts 7 days a week.
Glad to hear your dad headed in, not something to mess with.
Hard to say how much risk I’m in. I have a higher chance of getting it but the drugs I take prevent cytokine over reaction. That’s what is killing people. Kids, wife and I all had about half the symptoms for 6 days and have been keeping isolation protocols for about 10. Wild stuff.
Anyone else having a hard time finding an updated view of the “curve” we’re supposed to be flattening? When it was just in China, I could easily find new data daily. Now, it’s really hard to get time scale data anywhere.
Nevermind, finally found it right after posting this. Here it is, in case anyone’s interested:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Wow, some growth today. What was it 5k cases to start the day?
I guess if you actually start testing you’d expect the numbers to rise…that female doctor in Ohio said 100,000 cases just there. These numbers are still way too low.
The DR in Ohio also admitted later she was “guessing”. Now that real testing is taking place number will take off. How much I don’t think anybody really knows.
I expect the total number of cases to go past China’s total due to the way it’s unfolding. Many states are trying to get ahead of it with restrictions while others have taken no steps. It only takes one to set it off. Got into a veterans home in Lebanon. Then an explosion of cases.
This virus finds weak spots in society very easily.
Cases still going parabolic, with NY leading the way. Expect a Shelter in Place order soon.
Also, there’s been a resurgence in Korea and Hong Kong due to “returning travelers.”
Brady to the Bucs.
what is the Pack’s greatest need in the draft? Wouldn’t it be funny if they drafted Luton?
WR and now RT. They let Bulaga go. Too risky with his injury history. Now he will stay healthy of course. On a positive note, somebody signed Jimmy Graham. Good riddance; he sucked.
My brother’s friend has a small business and employees 22 people. He had to lay off 20 today. Yikes.
It will be interesting see if the economic changes nee create in response egatively affect the health and lifespan of Americans more than the virus.
You can’t really measure that unless other regions really shit the bed. If you do things right and the virus doesn’t do much damage then it’s over reaction and blame game. If you do nothing and it kills 6 million people then it’s under reaction and blame game. That question will just be another dumb political football to divide people.
At the end of the day government should exist to support and protect it’s people against forces the people cannot overcome on an individual or small community level. Governments who allow their people to suffer when there are other options have failed.
That hurts all around. Hopefully in a month he can hire as many as are willing back.
I’m now reading that due to isolation, we won’t have “herd immunity”, and it will come back twice as strong in Fall. I heard rumblings of that all along, but now I’m digging in and reading how/why it works that way. This is not good.
Only hope is a vaccine at this point.
Banking on vaccine/treatment/preparedness to be up to snuff by then. Maybe for the first time in world history it’s kind of possible to out pace a virus. I just hope it doesn’t mutate and that there world makes it a priority.
My only solace with the isolation is that the low symptoms and long incubation period makes it more likely that we have way more people infected than the numbers relate. Hopefully the immunity is atleast a halfsy if it can’t be hard.
Sadly many do mutate. Check out the “Spanish Flu” of 1917-1918. Over 100 million people world wide died (including one of my grandfathers) — and the 1918 version was much nastier than the 1917 version.
A virus getting prevalent and then mutating to deadly is what epidemiologist have nightmares about.
BOOGITY BOOGITY YOURE DEAD NOW HA HA HA
I have been seeing the same thing regarding heard immunity. I think the end game at this point is to “flatten the curve” so we don’t overwhelm the hospitals. This will buy time to ramp up production of temp hospitals, ventilators, and other supplies we need more of.
It is not possible to keep everyone on lockdown for 6, 12, 18 months. You may save hundreds of thousands of lives from the virus but tens of millions will die do to the resulting economic depression and civil unrest. After this initial 6-12 week lockdown we will have blunted the spike in infection and at that point we will be able to tell everyone that can start going back to a somewhat normal life’s. For the older folks and people with heath issues they will have to stay in the bunker until the vaccine is ready.
from what I have read vaccine trials take over a year and rushing that is not a great idea. The drawback of flattening the curve is it draws all this out. One school of thought is to just isolate the vulnerable and let everyone else get it… then herd immunity will take effect.
They started injecting people yesterday and are doing human/animal concurrently. Def going to be some records on vaccine creation on this one.
Don’t hold your breath for herd immunity. Coronavirus strains already cause 30ish% of common colds each year, most others are rhinovirus. Millions and millions and millions of people catch the common cold each year, yet it still comes back around and infects the same people time after time.
As for vaccines, they may make something but the chances that it works at all or that they actually have a way to test it’s efficacy are minimal. I’ve posted this article here before, it’s obvious that most of you didn’t read it.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/09/why-flu-vaccines-so-often-fail
TL;DR version, flu vaccines don’t work, they never have and they probably have been making things worse the entire time.
I know you were probably being glib/stressed about covid, but nowhere in this article does it say flu vaccines don’t work or are making things worse. The article says it’s less effective than previously thought (10 to 60% efficacy) but still recommends getting one. It does mention that some research *suggests* the possibility that repeated vaccines blunt our own immune system’s ability to fight the flu. When research “suggests” something that means additional research is needed – and this doesn’t change the fact that the flu vaccine does have some amount of proven efficacy and people, especially the old and the young, should get one. The point of the article is that our method of producing, measuring efficacy and general understanding of the flu virus needs to improve. It’s strange times, let’s all chip in to avoid misinformation, especially when it could adversely effect people’s health.
Thy are not making a vaccine for all Corona virus. It’s specific to the novel Corona virus that causes the covid-19 disease. Flu vaccines are a guess, as the article states as the main reason they fail, to stop large scale flu outbreaks based on recent trends. It’s a totally different ball game.
It’s almost impossible to measure the effectiveness of the flu vaccine because we don’t typically get any of the strains from recent vaccines. The vaccines could save 200 million one year and we would never know. It may happen that advances due to covid and new manufacturing methods someday allow for rapid vaccination based on real time influenza infection data but until then the vaccine is our best option.
Here’s a ridiculous amount of papers on the subject of flu vaccine effectivemess.
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0,38&q=flu+vaccine+effectiveness
I think that misses some of the points to vaccines. First purpose is individual immunity which is kinda what you are getting at. Second is herd immunity which relies on a large percentage of the pop having it which protects the vulnerable. Third is to eliminate a vector completely. I guess you could argue fourth is revenue stream.
Your stance is fine on the individual level but it’s problematic on any other level. That said do you and be healthy.
Edit: This is in reference to a deleted comment. The idea was that they don’t get flu vaccines cause their gut feeling was that their immune system should do its job.
Sore throat chills nausea I’m pretty sure I got it.
Or maybe it was that 18 pack of icehouse I just smashed. I’m makin it rain bitches
You’re now pissing off your deck?
Either that or we are all suffering hypochondriasis… lol. But really I think this stuff is already everywhere, which is why I suspect it passes much quicker than folks are thinking and why China has so few new cases, most people agree herd immunity sets in around 50-70%.
Well Hawaii is closing all restaurants and bars too now.
Good. My 70 year old sister and her daughter’s family (with a 3 week old baby) were at last check planning to fly to Hawaii next week. Guess what their primary source of information is…
Oh no
AngryBeavs?
Guess again…
We were going to take the kids to Reno for spring break. Had our hotel reservations and groupons for fun shit all bought and everything. About a month ago the wife saw this shit coming and we decided to cancel and get our $$ back. Yay paranoid wife.
Big win! Always nice when paranoia is handy.
Ducks must have little man syndrome by installing the largest video screen in CFB measuring about 33 yards long by 22 yards high. Sheesh and for the modest pricetag of only $12m including an upgraded sound system too. That’ll wow the recruits I suppose but they still got little wieners.
Not Sabrina!
Unlucky timing. It’ll definitely get delayed due to current events.
You thought Florida man was stupid? A challenger appears….
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/487968-oregon-police-department-urges-people-to-stop-calling-for-911?amp
Just reading my Dec 28th, 2019 post. Damn, spot on.
I have no idea on REITs. You’d think RE is at a top, but if people keep taking on roommates to buy homes maybe investors can pick up a few more nickles in front of the bulldozer. Wages sure don’t support prices.
Stocks can eek out another 10% this year via a blow off top. I’m bailing now and looking to go short, though. If the VIX goes under 11 buy puts, ya’ll. Market is super overbought per the technicals. What’s interesting is we’re seeing the VIX rising as the market rises. Vix should be dropping. This means people are nervous and buying insurance, showing a lack of conviction in this latest move. Meanwhile, the “Greed Index” is at 93, highest ever. So we truly do have morons picking up their last nickles in front of a bulldozer here.
And on gold…it got to about exactly 1650 on that latest moving being discussed there.
Silver and Platinum
Some issues with both being industrial metals and US being due for recession. Both are much smaller markets, too, so more volatility. That’s why I prefer gold. Since I recommended gold in March/April around $1300ish it’s moved to $1515. About 17%. Not a bad move if anyone listened. We’re about to see the second leg of that move. There’s almost zero resistance on the chart between 1500 and 1900. I expect it to get to around $1650 on this latest move.
Any of you finance guys hiring?
The funny thing is with the 30% drop stocks are STILL not cheap. We’re just about near fair value based on the old earnings, and since we don’t know the new earnings (much lower after corona), we should go at least another 20% lower. FED is trying to interfere yet again and blow the bubble back up yet again and stop this very natural move. We’ll see if they succeed.
The feds moves are so crazy, failed institution as you have mentioned before.
You should start an investment collective like Berkshire, I’d hand you some cash to manage if I ever find any between the cushions.
We’re about to all get $1,000 in Monopoly money, if you want me to manage it!
I think I’ll be injecting that right back into the economy buying stuff we need for my boys and new baby haha. Hit me with a pitch in a decade =P
Nope, they just upped the ante to $2k!
*Supposedly it will be tiered by family size and income. We’ll see.
2K per adult or 2K per family?
“Up to 2k per adult,” but it sounds like now there are a lot of different plans being floated out there.
Poyer signed 2 year extension with Bills. He has 11 INTS in 47 games w/Bills, and last year led team w/4 forced fumbles. In 2018 Buffalo allowed fewest passing yards in league, last year 4th fewest.
Poyer is 28 now!
2 Star out of Astoria, if I remember right? One of those diamonds in the rough.
Meanwhile, Brandon Browner is moved to prison near Bakersfield, CA. He won’t be eligible for parole until November 2023.
https://3downnation.com/2020/03/17/former-stampeders-db-brandon-browner-imprisoned-eight-years-for-attempted-murder/
Raiders will sign him when he gets out.
Just saw this: “Pacific Northwestern Hotel and Restaurant Chain McMenamins Lays Off Thousands of Employees in Response to COVID-19 Pandemic”
Yeah they are going to be in pain. Restaurant, small venue entertainment, travel destination, hotel. To cap it off most of their places are historic buildings with cramped space and limited sinks.
Good luck to all those people.
One of my old employees who moved back to Portland a year ago, he’s an early 30-something, going back to school at PSU, says most of his friends work service sector jobs, gig work and hospitality…ALL are out of work right now. None have any idea when they will be able to work again.
You’ll see most businesses that are closing up for the virus layoff their work force. They have to in order for those workers to file for unemployment.
Costco, all grocery stores and amazon are hiring. Probably delivery too
The bat in that market was a Jeff Bezos plant in a larger ploy to get all retail out of the way in one fell swoop, the coup-de-grace in his bid for world domination. He has the bald head, all he’s missing is the Persian cat.
and a mini-he
He truly is a Bond villain. Just more dr evil then Blofeld.
Amazon is hiring 100,000 people….that stock is a screaming buy
On that note, if someone handed you $5000 right now and said “buy me the stock that will make me the most $$ in the future” what would your choice be?
This is of course assuming that the market recovers and we’re not all eating each other in 6 months.
Amazon.
I also like Intuitive Surgical a lot, but it’s not as sure a bet, but it’s my second largest position.
This is not investment advice!
Well I don’t have $5k to burn at the moment anyway so we’re good haha.
Haha. Few do.
Hey if anyone has too much of these free 2k checks, the donate button is above!
Is that intuitive surgical the people who started the virus vaccine trials? I was told that would have been a good one to grab a few days ago.
No, all those companies are speculative and might have a good quarter or two. You might be thinking of Gilead Sciences. If so, that’s a solid company, but it’s frothy here because of all that speculation.
Intuitive invented the Davinci robots that assist (and one day will perform) very complex surgeries. It’s a great company with great management (great ceo, incredible balance sheet, etc). They’ve gotten killed during this selloff, too.
How do you feel about the entertainment business stocks, Disney, airlines, cruise ships, etc? Seems like they’ll all be taking it in the ass in the next month or so. Assuming it all recovers it seems like a buy low/sell high opportunity?
I hate them all, and not because of anything recent. All have terrible balance sheets and/or business models. Take Disney…it has a current ratio of .8 and a return on equity of only 10%. This trading at it’s old p/e ratio (14ish)…and with “e” being much lower in the future, that is disaster.
The same applies to airlines, only their current ratio, REO, and other figures are even worse. Cruise lines and airlines are awful businesses. High input costs and so many external risks, and they have huge debt at all times and very low REO, dividends, etc. Everyone should learn the basics of reading a balance sheet before considering a stock. Just because a stock is down 100% doesn’t mean it’s cheap…it could mean it was just 100% overvalued. In all these cases that’s the fact.
If you want to speculate, I’m sure they will pop here and there, but long-term no way. I warned NiceBeaver about Boeing a few months ago after their Maxx crashes that that’s a $50 stock. It was $320 at the time. It hit $80 yesterday. I’m sure it’s going to $50 if not lower pending socialized losses/bailouts. Again, awful business model that was so obviously grossly overpriced…if you know what to look for. Disney is a $40 stock and had no business being in the 150s — that just shows the magnitude of the bubble that just burst.
Some good quick things to look for:
1. Current ratio, sometimes called Quick Ratio on certain sites, above 1 (higher better). Quick ratio is actually slightly different because it’s liquid assets vs liabilities. Both are useful.
2. ROE above 15%. Slow, safe industries like utilities or healthcare you can deal with 10% or so. Nothing lower is acceptable IMO.
3. p/e in line with the industry or over index, so around 15 is usually a good starting point short of a high flier. But remember p/e is trailing, so always look up the (projected) forward p/e.
Etc. These are a few good starting points. Though there is more to look at. Not investment advice, and I suggest everyone educate themselves before buying anything.
Rams looking to unload Gurlry and Cooks contracts; speculation one or both may join Brady in TB.
With Cooks’ concussion history and price, I’d be surprised if he moves at his current salary. Luck O’ Da Beavs for him….2 HOF QBs, 3 winning teams, 2 Super Bowls, no rings, 4-5 concussions(?).
Packers sign him please!
So I live off the grid in the mountains in Maui with a Hawaiian family. I have no running water, no phone service, no electricity, aside from solar and generator. However I feel like I’m in a good place for this to happen. All my friends out here that thought I was crazy for living like this want to come up here now. We have chickens, pigs, and a garden too. The only thing I think that I need is a gun to protect my tp. Lol
I think there’s a Twilight Zone about that during the cold war…the guy has a doomsday bunker, and everyone laughs at him. Alarm goes off and they think it’s a bomb, etc. Then they all want in and are pounding his door down. Turns out it was nothing (fire alarm or something) and they all feel like idiots and walk away tail between the legs. Man that’s a great show.
Being used to living simple and having the skill base for it is a good recipe for a nice life. Times like these its 11/10 win.
My friends all think I’m a crazy prepper cause I keep 6 bins of stuff in my garage. 100 gallon of water, 1 month of food, 1 month santitation, 1 month propane, stove and spare parts, 1 chord of wood, 1 bin with tools and survival stuff and lastly a garden starter kit if things really went to shit. 2 of the 6 bins are full of staple grains/beans and water for the neighbors when they are unprepared.
Still don’t need it at all right now but $500 bucks of prepardness gives a shitload of piece of mind.
Yep. Having preps and skills is always smart.
Happy you left CA?
What do you store your water in? I never like the idea of plastic for long term water storage. You replace it every so often?
You can get BPA free jugs and put a pinch of bleach in it.
Depends on the type of plastic. Food-grade HDPE is supposedly safe for at least a year. Glass is probably the safest, but it’s also heavier and less durable, so if you ever need to move it, it’ll be more difficult.
Many people don’t know it, but the official government recommendation for emergency preparedness increase from three days to two weeks at some point within the last five years. If the Federal government is telling you something, double it.
Regarding our current situation: I don’t think we’re looking at a massive supply chain shutdown unless they start implementing several complete lockdowns in areas with key distribution hubs. If you look at what they did on the Canadian border, for examplem they prioritized allowing commercial traffic to continue. Still, it never hurts to have plenty of staples on hand and supplement with stuff you grow yourself.
Glass seems sketch too because the most likely cause of municipal water service disruption is an earthquake which could possibly break your glass jug. Maybe I will look into plastic when this calms down a bit.
Yup probably not gonna need my stuff at all this time. Mostly I worry about bad firs that affect air quality, volcanic activity or massive seismic activity here in Bend. I give myself about 1/100,000 chance of ever needing it but having 3 kids, a dog and a wife to look after I don’t mind that in the least.
Ill be interested to see if companies stop their conversion to inventory cutting and just in time style business. Engineers and Supply Chain Specialists all say stop that shit but lean managers and accountants love that sweet efficiency.
Totally agree on doubling what ever the government is recommending. If not more.
I use food grade HDPE flat tanks. I replace the water every year and add a small amount of bleach to keep any bacteria at bay. If im at the point where I need that water then I am not overly worried about chemical leeching.
That makes sense. I suppose I have 50 gallons in the hot water heater I could drink in a pinch… Lmao. Think I will get a plastic barrel though.
The bathtub plastic bladders are awesome too. I have one in my “immediate supplies”. Basically you hook it up to the spout and fill it up right at the start of any issue. You get a plastic bladder with 60-120 gallons of water depending on the size of the tub and bladder.
Just FYI, nobody buy any of this stuff now. Wait until after the panics and their prices will drop like crazy as demand dies.
The water in the toilet tank should be good to drink, too, in a pinch. I have an old bowl and it holds ~7 gallons in the tank. If you get a Life Straw, you can pretty much drink out of anything. So I always have a few of those on hand, too.
Life straws are awesome. I have 3 of them in my gear, a sand filter pump and iodine in a pinch. Always fun to balance whats useful to have vs making it a hobby haha.
The only thing I don’t really have is a substitute for electricity. Plenty of alternative methods for heat though.
I have all that stuff, too. We must have watched the same YouTubes in 2012.
Life straws are ok in a pinch. You need to get a Sawyer filter, cheap, flushable and good for 10,000 gallons although I can’t remember how small of micron it goes to. I have a gravity setup that does 4 liters through a Sawyer and charcoal filter in 3-4 minutes. Use this set up for backcountry hunting it weighs almost nothing.
Luckily this isn’t as serious as it could be. Hopefully this will act as a drill for a lot of people and next time around the population will be more prepared.
I would most definitely buy a gun. In fact 2 makes sense because the one gun will be lonely and that’s just not right.
On that subject, Angry have you expanded the arsenal since you left California?
No I haven’t. I feel good with one shotgun. Should I?
I kind of want a revolver since they never fail, and you can get into tight quarters easily. Maybe if the government sends me 2k I’ll get one! I’m not in the mood to spend otherwise. Just did some home improvements so…
By the way, I got your charming spambot message. People need to realize that thing is a robot and flags things for it’s own reasons. Usually roaming IPs trigger it. Just fill out the form (nicely). ;)
I wanted you to know it was really me and not a Russian spy.
Seems the next logical step for you is a quality rimfire (.22LR) rifle and a handgun of some sort. The beauty of a rimfire is how cheap and easy they are to shoot. No recoil, very little noise compared to larger calibers. They can be used for hunting all manner of small game but they really shine in teaching fundamentals while having all kinds of fun without breaking the bank.
Cool. I have the fundamentals down because I trained with the NRA for a few weeks. As someone with no background in firearms, it seemed smart to hire an instructor. Should probably brush up at a range though because it’s been a while.
I’m leaning toward a revolver next just because of how simple they are and never jam. At the range it was my favorite gun to shoot. I was hitting targets 60 yards away right off the bat. It was very intuitive compared to other models, and I had the best accuracy. I like those 4″ 5 shot Rugers. They had a nice weight and long enough barrel for accuracy. Seemed like a perfect design.
A quality revolver is hard to beat. I’m not a revolver guy myself, but I’d never discount them as a defensive firearm. I’d take a hard look at a 4-6″ barrel stainless revolver from Ruger or Smith&Wesson. Get it in .357 Magnum and practice with cheap/easy .38 Special. Load with quality high velocity .357 hollow points and spend some $$ on a couple of good holsters. Also look in to speed loaders if you think it way ever need to be used for personal defense.
Check out some of Jerry Miculek’s YouTube videos for what a revolver is capable of.
Cool. Thanks.
I just spent a small fortune putting new windows in our place, but if the government does in fact send us all checks I think I’ll put half into a new acoustic and half into a revolver.
I just scored a new bridge pickup for my son’s strat and gave my step son one of my spare acoustics. This time off is a good time for them to dig in to guitars a bit.
I may be a dick but I’m hanging on to a chunk of $$ for when the desperation sell off hits Craigslist. Guitars and tools are on the menu.
Nice. I’m building a new guitar with our down time, and I’m also trying to hoard cash for CL guitars, too!
I’m gonna take the time to wire in that set of Super Distortions I picked up for my Les Paul. I went ahead and bought one of those prewired kits off Amazon with CTS pots and orange drop caps. Gonna duplicate the top wound setup I did on my Dot, Wilkinson roller bridge and D’addario 12-54s. Really happy with how that guitar plays now.
You building another electric?
Angry what’s happening with gold? Is it a good idea to still grab for us beavs?
Well we had a sudden deflation, and in deflation cash is king. It won’t last, so I do think it’s a good time to get some gold. But avg in slowly with like 1/10th oz not all at once. Gold had a quick rise to 1650, so it was due for a correction either way. If you don’t know what you’re doing don’t make gold more than 5% of portfolio. It’s insurance to maintain purchasing power, not a get rich scheme. Dips are the time to buy. If you think rates will be rising (in real terms not nominal) then don’t buy gold at all. It’s terrible in that situation.
That is really fantastic advice and explanation of how to use gold as an investment.
Yes the other thing to mention is you won’t find any gold near spot. Premiums have skyrocketed. Gold is actually in backwardation (i.e. spot is higher than the futures price). This is never normal for gold and makes no sense other than a “sell everything and ask questions later” scenario where gold is getting liquidated to pay other debts/margin calls or even to convert paper gold contracts for physical gold, and it could suggest an explosive move. Finally, go for low premium coins.
I don’t view gold as an investment. To me it’s collateral in a world with little good collateral and also a dollar hedge (very rare for a paper currency to last over 100 years, and given the way we treat the dollar, it’s in the end days). All about collateral and purchasing power with gold.
The worst thing is that the baseball team is still winless in March. Casey would have found a way the defeat the virus. Canham is a loser.
NiceBeaver, update?
I hit him up on twitter and hes just busy and stressed taking care of his people. He said he would try to sneak on later and update us. Prefer he take a minute to take a nap myself!
Hey, things are going ok here. I think the daily reveal of bad news followed by more bad news(small things like everything being cancelled, and bigger things like both parents in varying stages of pneumonia) was definitely getting stressful. Especially while trying to maintain work and keep my own family sane.
But now that everything is closed or cancelled, it’s easier to just accept the current reality and choose to keep moving forward.
My mom’s health is slowly improving. We’ll probably never know if her pneumonia is/was a symptom of Covid19, because she started it early enough that testing just wasn’t offered. She got her first symptoms around Feb 23rd. (Chills taking over her body one evening) It progressed a couple days later into bad fever, followed by coughing. They treated her for bronchitis, but later said maybe it was bacterial pneumonia and gave her antibiotics. Just so happens that pneumonia is an extreme complication of Covid19 for some people.
So my dad started feeling ill around Sunday. Coughing up phlegm and blood happened around Tuesday in the early AM. 104+ fever too. He called the doctor, took them about 6-7 hours to call back.
They said go to ER and get tested. He left around 3:PM and waited quite awhile. Something like 5 tests are performed. Tested negative for flu. The Covid19 swab test takes 3 days to get results. So they told him go home, self quarantine for 2 weeks and wait to hear more. He’s in good spirits and says it will be a 2 week vacation in their tv room at home.
So, now I’m the grocery/etc delivery option for them. Which isnt ideal because i have had mild cold like symptoms since around Saturday. I’m very cautious at the store, carrying homemade bleach wipes to keep my hands sanitary, covering my face. It’s not ideal, but hoping one big grocery load will get us all through a couple of weeks.
I work for a health care giant, in finance, so my job is pretty stable actually. Not worried about that part at all. Feels terrible for those living paycheck to paycheck while getting furloughed. It’s much tougher out there for others, so I’m counting my blessing we have the resources to cope and get through temporary choppy waters.
Thanks for checking in, i do appreciate it.
Also, if you’ve made it through reading this much, how about something uplifting?
A local strip club has figured out a way to cope with having their bar closed. They’re offering bar food made for delivery, by strippers wearing pasties. Yes, it’s real. Boober Eats!
https://www.wweek.com/bars/2020/03/17/a-portland-strip-club-has-started-a-meal-delivery-service-where-dancers-bring-food-directly-to-your-door-to-your-home/
Oh yeah, that ER visit lasted from 3pm to 11:30pm.
He said there were about 5-7 other people waiting at various times, several others in beds. Very slow process. I know hospitals are ramping up capacity amd cancelling all unneccessary services to prepare for the onslaught of new cases coming soon. It’a going to be all hands on deck, but at least the leadership where i work is confident they are ready, but also urging everybody to conserve resources now (PPE and such) so we dont run out later.
Dentist offices will be closing(to conserve equipment) medical offices will be repurposed to handle Ambulatory services. If you know health care workers, it wouldnt be a bad idea to thank them or offer to help feed their families. They’re going to be really freaking busy soon.
And dont forget to check on your elderly neighbors. They’re tougher than most of us, but could be helped with grocery deliveries and what not.
Just one example of how we’ll be repurposing existing facilities into makeshift ICUs and Hospitals.
Also, something you should take advantage of if your provider offers it is virtual care. Will be huge if they can limit face to face encounters to just those who really need it. No need for extra rooms to increase bandwidth. Pretty cool stuff.
My wife’s hospital is rationing the n95 masks for confirmed Covid19 patients which means a lot of the staff is out sick with cold symptoms as many people have this that aren’t tested yet. A colossal cluster f.
They’re already taking steps to re-use these masks as much as possible. We treat them as if they’re disposables, but in reality they can be re-used with the proper precautions.
You can maybe reuse them for droplet spread but it is still up for debate. Seem a few studies showing a strong potential for aerosolization thus airborne spread is possible if not likely.
Our hospital just sent out a plea for mask donations.
Good to hear, buddy.
Is Canzano a sponsor of that club?
For all you stat geeks. I started following this guy on FB. PHD in statistics and has been closely modeling this virus sense December. He brings a great perspective to this pandemic.
https://www.facebook.com/1068443183/posts/10220280469496403/?d=n
Does he have any non-fb posts? Twitter maybe?
Not sure sorry
So I can’t read his graph very well for some reason. Is he expecting this to peak next week then we see a sharp decline in new cases?
He has posted dozens of graphs with data for confirmed cases, deaths and modeling with curves. He is basically predicting this thing peters out around the beginning of May. He does say due to the lack of testing in the states the model continues to change (USA) but the overall timeline appears to be stable. He has tons of post with a lot of great data. He does not appear to have an ax to grind just wants to give people the data vs all of the hysteria we are getting through the media.
He also talks about the high death rate in Italy and if you look at the same type of data analysis for the seasonal cold and flu season their death rate is also substantially higher for those seasonal outbreaks as well.
Death rate for all respiratory infections is always higher for populations where smoking is prevalent. This is being thrown around for reasons Iran, Italy and China all got hit so hard with severe symptoms.
That or pollution, did you happen to see the satellite images of China before and after their big lock down? Crazy how it cleared up.
I did. This period is going to be a huge case study for what happens when we stop the whole emissions thing for a bit. There was dolphins in the Venice channels today for the first time in like 80 years or something.
please do us a favor and keep us posted on his findings. Funny, the most insightful projection I have seen in the last month is on Angry Beavs website, of all places.
He also says the next 15 days we will see a huge spike in confirmed cases and deaths. The underlying theme is to be cautious / calm and once we ride out the next 4-5 weeks the outlook will be much better than it appears today.
I hope he’s right. His stat timeline is considerably shorter then any I’ve seen so far. Most have stated June/July as back side of this virus. A few even showed August.
I have also seen this could last 18 months. His hypothesis is that in no way does the data point to that type of long term curve. Even if the cases ramp up again in the fall the curve will be MUCH lower due to many people having already been infected and that past epidemics in Asia (especially Coronaviruses) rarely result in an additional widespread outbreak.
Seems it’s just going to come back in Fall. This seems most like Spanish Flu, which had three waves and took two seasons to work through. I’m preparing for that, and if we get less (either via herd or vaccine) then we’ll be lucky.
The difference between the Spanish Flu and COVID19 is the Spanish Flu virus was just that a flu virus. COVID19 is a coronavirus (cold/respiratory virus). From what I have read they act differently during an outbreak. I guess we will all find out over the next 2 – 12 months.
The first round of Spanish flu was actually fairly mild, it was the second wave that mutated and really fucked shit up. There’s an island in Alaska that has basically a whole village of SW alaska Indians buried on it. Wiped out the entire tribe.
A childhood friend who is a MD with a double specialty in epidemiology and toxicology pretty much told me the same thing last night. He is really smart, worked at the CDC for a few years, and does consulting for government and industry. The one cautionary thing he did say was how more glum Trump looks day to day at the pressers and “what aren’t they telling us.” He did text me at the end with practical info on staying safe at this time. I will share. Stay safe angrybeavs.
IMG_0309.JPG
I love seeing the data each day. Looks as though the state of WA is starting to “flatten the curve”
https://www.facebook.com/1068443183/posts/10220287202224717/?d=n
He’s glum because they ask him about the “Chinese virus” comment 8 times per presser. The media is more concerned about a bunch of communists feelings then actual info about the virus response. Just a bunch of pearl clutchers in the midst of a pandemic.
The issue isnt how communist China feels. The problem is associating a disease with a race or nationality increases xenophobia and racism. Hate speech and crime against Chinese and Asian people are on the rise in the US, Canada and the UK. Not sure about other countries.
So If you are cool with American citizens getting attacked for something they have zero control of then that’s really weird.
I’ve watched the last 3 days of the morning the same question has been ask no less then 10 times. If the media was at all interested about the well fare of asians why would they keep asking word for word the same question Every presser? The reason is they could give 2 shits about any of this pandemic or racism they are trying their best to get trump in a gotcha moment. As for assholes attacking people over a virus they have no control over, they’re assholes period. You think it has anything to do with trump? Or saying Chinese virus? Everyone already knows where it came from. Blaming trump just sounds like an excuse for what it really is, fucking assholes being assholes.
It’s moments like this I’m glad Jack is still alive but not here.
maybe Jack was Patient zero
you too BeeG. I bet you’re glad you have that rig.
MLB draft may not happen this year. Good news for Beavs and all other colleges.
Could be a real possibility. Scouting will be very limited this year. Not sure how teams would be confident in their scouting reports. Teams would be guessing and scouting reports would be mainly off of last year. High school kids would be real risks.
As I mentioned above, gold went into backwardation. This is the only article I could find on it. It was actually written 6 minutes after my post above, so he must have noticed around the same time. If anyone wants an elaboration on my comment above, read this: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4332853-backwardation-returns-to-gold-market
This is actually a major contrarian indicator for gold and the USD.
The big point missing in this article (which I can excuse the author for because the global financial system is a massive, tangled web) is the current multi-trillion dollar shortage in the world. It’s a complicated problem, but basically every country in the world is short the dollar because they borrow money in USD instead of their local currencies because the USD is the global reserve currency (used to buy oil and most other goods in international trade). In doing so, they are putting themselves in a position where their debts grow when the USD gets stronger relative to their currencies.
One of the side effects of the current market turmoil is the “flight to safety” where everyone is liquidating their stock and HY bond positions in favor of “safer” assets like USD’s and UST’s. This demand for dollars is driving up the strength of the dollar, thus increasing all of those countries’ debts. It’s like a giant margin call for the whole world and the whole world is indebted up to its ears. The only way out (which has been done before to solve this problem) is to intentionally devalue the dollar (i.e. massive money printing). This has happened before, like the Asian Financial Crisis in the 1990’s. (Here’s a good article for more detail: https://www.lynalden.com/global-dollar-short-squeeze/)
The way this relates to gold is that gold futures are priced in USD, and USD is the strongest asset class in the world right now, so the ratio of USD/gold is falling. Everyone in the world wants USD’s right now, and they will right up until two things happen:
A) Massive USD devaluation (gold will go much higher)
B) The accelerated death of the petrodollar (gold should go much higher, but it’s hard to know if the paradigm changes this significantly)
Major economic players like China and Russia have been preparing to stop using the dollar for international trade for the last decade. They’ve been selling off UST’s and adding to gold reserves significantly. They’ve set up the markets and indices needed for these transactions and actually begun conducting them on a small scale. China has publicly argued for the diminished importance of the USD as the global reserve currency. After the smoke clears from the current global financial meltdown, there will be an even stronger case for the world to kick its dollar habit. Global power is shifting away from the US and this will be the true watershed moment. With several trillions of new USD’s currently being printed to get out of the current mess, if China and Russia can convince the rest of the world to get off the dollar, dollar demand (and strength) will plummet and the US will lose its international purchasing power, along with its standard of living. Gold will skyrocket as the USD plummets. The big question is will gold still be priced in USD, and if it isn’t how will it be priced?
TL;DR
The current dash for USD’s is hitting gold futures hard, but it’s going to reverse itself in a major way and this will send gold much higher. It’s happened before and it will happen again.
Yes this is basically Brent Johnson’s “milkshake theory” playing out. Brent even acknowledges that while the dollar will get stronger before weaker, it ends up at 0 ultimately. I’m not saying if it’s a good or bad time to buy gold because I don’t know given what’s going on with the mass liquidation in stocks and bonds, but in general you should never see backwardation in metals. It seems bullish, and many online shops are out of stock, charging high premiums, or back ordered until June. Something strange that’s for sure.
Update on my dad(OldNiceBeaver) Got a call from the nurse this morning and his test for Covid19 came back negative. Had the test late on Tuesday and results came in this morning. Nurse said that’s the fastest turnaround she’s seen so far. Hopefully a sign of improvement in that area.
He hasn’t had a doctor consult yet to discuss what is going on with him, so I’ll learn more later. Just passing on the little bit I know, which was good news to learn.
Great news! Keep your head up.
Neat deal!!
We’re holed up here in The ‘Couv. So far healthy, trying to minimize our trips to the store. Two younger kids are home. I have to home-school my daughter for her AP Calculus and AP Chemistry. I ordered a white-board. I’m pretty excited about that but I don’t think she shares my enthusiasm.
Complicating this is that I have a 96 year old mom in PDX (she lives alone, in the same house we grew up in) and my brother passed away from cancer about 3 weeks ago. His funeral was cancelled. We have no closure and really haven’t had an opportunity to grieve. That’s been really hard for all of us. My son is working as an engineer at VISA in the bay and working from home as they are under lock-down. Oldest daughter is a special-ed teacher up in Bellingham, WA and seems to be holding her own.
Cases in Clark County haven’t been ramping up yet but that’s coming. Hard to argue with the math.
It’s nice to have a community. Stay safe.
Yep, BB, that’s we all do..clutch our pearls. How about the damn President try to lead a nation, rather than blaming anyone and everyone. I know he can’t do it, but he’s got to lead or get out of the way. Sometimes, that’s what a great leader does…acknowledge the experts and let them run the show.
But we can’t have that, can we? Instead it’s the daily show ” The Coronavirus President…Apprentice Version”
I appreciate hearing the good news about OldNiceBeav, though.
It’s really annoying. “Fake Dem Hoax” probably cost lives because idiots believed that. So sick of the circus.
Tons of people still believe it. My parents went to Portland (70s) today and when I told them it’s a really bad idea they said, “it’s not real, CNN is just tricking you again”.
Conversation with mom, late 70’s in Arizona…
Me: what are you doing while isolating?
Mom: Oh I got bored so I went to the library.
Me: mom, dumb idea. stay home. order grocery delivery.
Mom: I should be good on groceries I went to three stores so I could get most of the things I wanted.
Me: mom! you have enough food in your house to last three months!
Mom: But I didn’t want to miss any of this week’s specials.
JFC
My 76 year old dad did the same shit. He’s perfectly isolated up above Oakridge and he decides he needs to bring his truck down to town to get whatever the fuck done. Good timing dad.
Oh no you’re offended surprise, suprise. Yes trump isn’t leading, getting the FDA to push new treatments for the Chinese flu thru. Interesting enough the hydrocloroquine treatment was peer -reviewed less then 7 hours before trump had the FDA allow clinical trials which seems like the best bet to slow this pandemic down. But sure he’s not listening to anybody. Your blind hatred is noted.
It’s the Kung Flu.
Anyone here a Hemingway fan?
The main character in every one of his novels exerts “grace under pressure”. Very good books to read when dealing with what we’re dealing with. Any time I get stressed about this virus I just remember “grace under pressure” and think logically and make sure everything I can control is in order. Just a random tip that might help some of you, or any of you interested in Hemingway something to look for if you read his books.
Another interesting bit about Hemingway: a huge influence on his succinct and blunt sentences was the bible. He was highly influenced by the writing style. Read a bible sentence and then a Hemingway sentence back to back. Pretty fascinating.
Been about a decade. The man loved grandiosity!
Shit, you got downvoted for a Hemingway post? I haven’t read anything in many years, but I enjoyed most of his books. “A Moveable Feast” was one of my favorites. I think I’ve seen all of the movie adaptations also.
Farewell to arms is a good one
I’m more of a 18th and 17th century guy. Try Daniel Dafoe’s “A Journal of the Plague Year.” Great literature and more topical.
Watch “Midnight in Paris,” the Hemingway character is a hoot.
Used to read him a lot, including early stuff like Nick Adams.
That’s a good movie!
As are most Woody Allen movies – no outrage, please.
And,
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/weve-been-told-not-to-go-to-pubs-so-why-are-they-full
CDC estimates up to 55,000 deaths in the US since Oct 1st from the seasonal flu. If Covid19 surpasses this, I’d be shocked.
If people can get some “fun-enjoyment” checks from the state for 26 weeks, and if trump hands out $2k per head on top of that, we gonna have some mutha fuckas screamin that they be scared of gettin sick all day evr day
Here you go, hot off the presses a peer-reviewed study on death rates that doesn’t jibe with the doom and gloom the media is pushing.
https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-coronavirus-death-rate-china-mortality-covid-19-1493201
Well shit we already closed schools for the next 6 fuckin weeks what we gon do til May, better make it sound bad
My wife was furloughed on Monday but she’s still getting paid. It only took 2 days with 3 kids to demand some alone time without us. I joking with her to head over to Lebanon and lick the door handles on that veterans home because that the only alone time your getting til they go back to school.
My mob is doing well so far…Sons in Redondo Beach, Birmingham, and Minneapolis, and they and families at home are fine. A couple of grandsons and their families in Utah are fine. My sister in Ontario is OK (and she’s even older than I am). Keep the fingers crossed, I guess, and getting out frequently for walks in the fresh air seems to be good for both my wife and I. But keeping social distancing in mind while doing it.
I’m watching marble racing – and always rooting for the orange one for some reason. It helps.
Near deal. Does it win?
I expect betting and drinking games will develop to suite marble racing..
I’m officially calling it:
These times will forever be known as Y2K-rona
Bold prediction cotton.
You may find it interesting to look at population growth for some additional context:
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#table-historical
So the GoP stimulus plan requires famlies to make 47,000 and individuals 23,500 or they only get partial between 600-1200 per adult. Can someone please explain what the fetish is with punishing people for having less during a financial crisis?
I truly don’t understand why the most in need get less?
Because that’s how Republicans role and so too their voters. They’ve managed to brainwash poor people into believing in trickle down economics. For example, Kentucky is one of the poorest States in the Country and one with the most welfare, and they keep voting in Republicans who make life even harder on them. I think the GOP plan is also requiring people have IRS income — i.e. so people who are indigent, disabled, etc and have no IRS income and are totally fucked by the gene pool/bad luck get $0. Because that makes sense…….I’m sure they have some “tighten up those bootstraps!” line to get people to buy in, though.
Then they identify themselves the party of Christians. Because that sure sounds like something Jesus would do, no? “Hey you have no fish or loaves? Tough luck, buttercup, I’m giving them all to Pontius Pilate!”
FTR: I’m into neither party. Just calling it like it is. When Dems are in power doing dumb shit I’ll be equally critical/realistic.
Spot on. I’ve been registered independent since 18, don’t vote party lines. It’s amazing to me how many how many people vote so obviously against their own interest.
I bounce between affiliation and independent depending on if primaries are closed and if im interested in a primary.
Is the plan finalized? Or is this something that will get debated for weeks, causing more delays?
A version I saw at least had a cap for individuals/couples earning above a certain range, which I think is good, but that lower range is BS.
Maybe their backwards thinking is that people who are accustomed to getting by on less can continue to get by on less?
Or because they pay in less in taxes, they don’t get as much back?
So the poor and/or elderly relying on social security will get the shaft. Doesn’t make sense to me politically. Isn’t that a big part of the GOP’s base? Why would they want to turn their backs on their base in an election year?
Not saying it should be a political decision, but that part doesn’t compute for me.
No it’s not finalized. The best explaination I have found is they put the requirement in as a bargaining chip so they can reduce the corporate tax rate at the same time. Basically start with a 5% tax cut and use the low end requirements as leverage to get 2.5%
Pretty disgusting.
The upper ranges do exist nb and I agree they are okayish. Problem with those cut offs is they don’t factor in COL but whatcha gonna do. The other problem is they are basing the income off 2018 tax returns which will both slow things down and if you have had a change of circumstances you are either getting money you don’t really need or SOL. Just send it to everyone and stop trying to control how every cent is spent. If people want to spend it on dumb shit then that’s their right, if they want to keep their kids fed for a few weeks that’s also their right.
Just send it to everyone and stop trying to control how every cent is spent. If people want to spend it on dumb shit then that’s their right, if they want to keep their kids fed for a few weeks that’s also their right.
Do you remember a few years ago there was a big “expose” that people on food stamps were buying lobster? Republicans used it to bash the only program feeding the poor (Ron Paul went so far as to say churches should feed them, because that happens at the scale needed…and said the ones who don’t get it die lol!). Meanwhile, what’s better, buying lobster and eating super healthy to prevent disease and major drags on the system, or buying Cheetos? They want everyone buying “the traditional garbage that fat, poor people eat!” because it supports companies that pay them, and maybe because it kills them faster. Like, shouldn’t someone eating healthy on food stamps be praised? 99% of the population is on the brink of food stamps given this virus, too, so people who bash the poor thinking they will never be in that position….yeah. Reality about to set in. We will see how tunes change key on a dime, just like they did with these “checks for all!” where suddenly every Republican is a Socialist.
I think people get super worked up because a few bad apples do exploit the system, not realizing 99% of the people abide and are legit in need.
Another irony of the lobster expose was that at one time lobster was so abundant and readily available that the impoverished colonists could readily capture and eat it. A negative stigma became attached to it as poor man’s food and for some time it was considered suitable for indentured servants and prisoners.
Ah, you must have posted at the same time — but yes, it screws over a major, poor part of their base, and the reason is they have those people brainwashed into believing in trickle down economics. As long as they believe in that, they can tell them they’ll give it to those above them, and they’ll get it down the road in spades when all those rich people create jobs for them, etc. This has been the Right Wing radio narrative since Reagan, and it works, so they keep doing it. Read Zerohedge one day to get insight into it.
Is it just trickle down? It seems like there is an obsession/delusion that they as individuals will become very wealthy and don’t want policy against them when they get there? I might just be biased cause that’s how a lot of my family acts.
Edit: dyslexia is cruel
Ah yes, I think that’s true, too. Haha. They’re not “getting there”…..ever. They believe in that from-the-mailroom-to-CEO philosophy from the 70s. That went out the door long ago thanks to the FED (look at CEO vs worker pay since we went off the gold standard in ’71)…………
That and allowing corporations to make investors #1.
Well corporations should make investors #1. Why would I invest my money if I’m not their priority? Capitalism is great in that it pools massive sums of money to fund things that would otherwise be impossible. The problem is more lobbyists and behind the scene things when it comes to corporations, not that they make shareholders #1. If Capitalism functioned properly, we’d pool our money into ideas that benefit society, and those giving money to do that would be rewarded greater than those who don’t, but society as a whole would be rewarded even if they didn’t invest a cent. What we have now………………? Nope.
Something people also don’t seem to understand is that equity in a corporation is the last thing to be paid in bankruptcy. Bond holders, warrants, wages, etc all get paid before equity, which always makes me question the premium we pay for stocks in this Country, and the overall obsession with the stock market.
Isnt a system that has no protections against greed and base human instincts a failed model? Businesses have no obligation to communities or workers unless they lose a lawsuit or lose the court of public opinion. Seems like even if investors are #1 there should also be a #2 and #3. I’m a huge fan of Patagonia model if you have a chance to read up on it. I would be really interested to read your thoughts.
I don’t know the “Patagonia Model”, but I will read up on it if you send me links.
Capitalism is a fantastic system if you actually practice it. We have socialized losses and privatized gains. That’s not Capitalism. I’m not sure what it is, officially. But I’d say it’s more like a kleptocracy than Capitalism or Socialism, though we’re typically defined as a “mixed” economy due to having some elements of capitalism and socialism.
In every system people will fall through the cracks, but in true capitalism you get the least. Maybe in that case Ron Paul would be right and the church or donations would actually support those people. But when you run something closer to a Kleptocracy you lose any chance of that happening, and it does put more pressure on the social/welfare side of things. It will only get worse, and it’s not the fault of the poor or those on welfare. That’s where Republicans fail.
The Federal Reserve is the cause. It’s a German banking cartel from the Marx days…no reason we should have a central bank in this country. Booms and busts are part of any organic business cycle. If anything the FED has made them more extreme and frequent. Jack would argue and call me a Bircher, but he’s just an idiot with this stuff, and I like the guy overall.
PS. I think the Socialists wet dream of Sweden, Norway, etc is going to be exposed during this latest crisis. The problem with socialism is eventually you run out of other peoples’ money to spend……..this will highlight the problem given the credit issues. You can pull forward future property for a while. That’s all Scandinavian countries do.
Businesses have no obligation to communities or workers unless they lose a lawsuit or lose the court of public opinion.
Well we don’t have Capitalism, so I’d say that wouldn’t be true if we did. Corporations know loses will be socialized, lobbies or money in general will handle communities/politicians, and lawyers will handle lawsuits, so there is little incentive to care about these things. In Capitalism corporations miscalculating money or resources to the detriment would simply fail. New/better owners would take over. Etc. I’m a huge fan of real capitalism. Huge critic of what we actually have.
Isn’t a system that has no protections against greed and base human instincts a failed model?
I’m not sure. There’s a camp that argues Socialism is just an advanced mindset we haven’t yet achieved. I’m not sure how I feel about that, but I get the argument. Generosity is a human instinct, too. There are many instincts that I think somewhat blow up that argument.
I think Nordic socialism is poorly understood on all fronts. It works because it’s highly subsidized by nationalized oil proceeds. The oil crash is a great test in many ways because less money will be going into their national trusts. That said most of them have basically no national debt and huge public trusts so they should be robust against short term market issues.
Socialism tends to fail or perform poorly when a nation manages it’s wealth poorly (Venezuela) or doesn’t really have a much resource to leverage to the public to begin with (many eastern block countries). If the US leveraged the proper sectors (lol yeah right) we would have plenty for everyone because frankly we are filthy rich in a total GDP sense.
Yes exactly. The oil price will cause a credit crunch………let’s see how those Countries perform. We saw what happened to Socialist Russia in 1990s oil/credit crunch.
Alaska does this as well with their oil dividend. They’re in for hurt.
I’ll email you some tonight. Basically they prioritize workers, community, quality and environment over investor or executive salary. Compared to competitors they are absolutely socialist and it should all fall apart but imo it’s really good capitalism. They make a great product (that they will replace or repair for life), have insane employee retention (training new costs way more than keeping existing) and productivity is better than any competitor. They also spend huge amounts of money to use renewable methods and materials as much as possible because they see the environment ad part of their product. It costs them 7 figure executive salaries and their expansion is slower/robust.
Max Birch? I only know him for nutrition stuff?
If I had to guess as to a reason for the lower cap is that the vast majority of people in that income bracket are already on assistance/EBT. So that part of their income won’t change as opposed to the lower middle folks that may be losing two incomes completely and probably don’t have shit in the bank.
Nuclear, I think greed is a problem at the individual level. There’s a lot of evidence that “maslow’s hierarchy of needs” fuels this. IMO, and I haven’t read anything on this so I could be totally wrong, every individual has a different level where they feel comfortable. But once they are comfortable, they switch from greed to generosity. IMO, this is why you see many wealthy philanthropists and very few poor. This is likely why the people doing well here at AB are my monthly donors to pay for the work that you all enjoy. (Big thanks to them).
Basic needs not only have to be met, but you have to have a cache of basic needs met, before you turn generous. With scare and limited resources, not everyone can meet that comfort level. It’s simply math. That’s why above I said any system will have people who fall through the cracks. You have to rely on generosity kicking in. Our government forces that generosity, via welfare programs, because the majority people in our society do not feel secure enough in their Maslow needs to do it themselves. Is this good? That’s the debate. I’d argue practicing ethical [true] capitalism would resolve much of this. And I do agree environmental and other intangible costs should be factored into these equations.
Man by nature is a political animal. Everyone cares. It’s just a question of have their basic needs been met enough, to them, to care about others. I really think it boils down to that (i.e. don’t believe there are many truly evil people). Government steps in and basically says “your needs have been met”, and this causes dissonance in people who feel that isn’t true. Thus the Republican Party.
I do think given the system we have built here in the US, you can’t end social programs or even cut them. This would cause massive economic damage and also massive social uprising via stress on the recipients. This is why the government is choosing to inflate them away via the Federal Reserve. It’s a terrible decision that will result in social problems.
There’s some really interesting revisions to heirarchy of needs in the academic world, I’ll tack some of thos papers one.
Tl:Dr – humans are incredibly scaleable. Aslong as they have examples of things they need or others have the idea of basic needs changes. Some people are more resistant to this than others and it is highly dependent on ideology/life experience and speed education. There is fair evidence that as religious ideology has lost share in society that the biggest incentive for charity on a non-personal level (donations to red Cross) from wealthy classes is tax incentives. For middle and lower class people it tends to be more related to proximity to the charities effect. IE give to food banks because you or someone you are close to once was food distressed. On an individual level most humans are very generous and kind to their direct community but less so to the larger needs of society (donate directly to a local family but ignore UNICEF junk mail). My personal ideology is environmental humanism which is pretty much help collective humanity as much as possible through direct action or helping others to be do direct action (such as mentoring people or raising children well) and environmental stewardship. As I have become more secure I find the scaling and proximity arguement to be very compelling and a real pressure to watch despite strong buy in to my dogma and real adhearence.
I believe you believe what you just wrote, but personally, I find academics to be in ivory towers and total eggheads who come up with a thesis and then find evidence to support it. IMO this is not valid science. If you can link me to things, I’ll read them and see if they’re objectively objective. But my guess is they aren’t and are funded by grants and/or pressure by peers to conform to some modern ideology. I like to observe society/talk to people as I go through a day and draw my conclusions from that. It’s not as impressive on the “appeal to authority” level…I get that. But seeing how people act day to day and understanding their fears (the reason I read Zerohedge, for example) to me is more valuable than the egghead papers. I also try to truly understand my fears and motivations, and I figure if I have them, others do…
Like all social constructs the truth lies in the middle. There’s good and bad science but the scientific method is the most robust tool humans have come up with since reason. I try to only link/send peer reviewed and experimentally confirmed (reproducible studies with the same results). Something like 50% of all papers generated right now don’t hold up to the reproducible standard. That doesn’t mean science is wrong, the process is to have a thesis, derive an experiment and then have others try to debunk it or confirm it. The more times that cycle shows a theory correct the stronger it gets. Eventually some things even become fundamental laws of we straight up can’t dispprove them.
What you are doing is basically a lifetime of theory and observation while comparing to others experience. That’s just really informal scientific exploration that’s hard to reproduce. Doesn’t mean you are wrong or right but your observable experience fits your theories based on your collective experience. It’s very robust on an individual level if you keep an open mind and never stop trying to expand your data set.
The intersection of science and policy is always a mess because politicians want whatever dots their agenda and often scientists hawk the latest ideas instead of robust but less exciting theory.
I guess what I’m saying is scientific method is good but the ivory tower is inhearently corrupted by individual motivation, political motivation and funding. That’s why I read 2 papers a day minimum so I have a broad perspective to draw conclusions.
In the last 21 days roughly 162,000 americans have died in the country. 150 of those died from the wuhan virus. Its estimated that 80,000 Americans died 2 years ago from the flu. Our country is being destroyed, and not by a damn virus.
Refer to Italy and wait acouple weeks. An Iranian health minister reported yesterday that they had 6 people dieing an hour (144 a day). They are not even using test kits cause they are so far past containment. We can’t know how necessary this is or how damaging it is one way or another until we have examples and results.
Yeah because they are drinking rubbing alcohol because some imam told them to.
I saw that. Brutal way to go.
Italy’s death cases are 99% old folks over 65, (sorry old beaver fans). They also have the oldest living population on earth and the main form of greeting is kissing on the cheek. This virus was custom made for a society like that. Now take that cruise ship 680+ cases 7 deaths almost everyone was over 55, packed in like cord wood. I think we are now below 1% mortality and we’re not even testing asymptomatic cases only those who have 1 or more symptoms. Once they ramp the testing up our infected rate will sky rocket but I’m betting our mortality rate drops below .6-.7. Still a lot of people but not nearly the death sentence some are pushing.
Don’t discount smoking.
Yup, if they are smart when they get vaccinations going they will do antibody tests first (much cheaper). That should give actual infection numbers to a decent degree. Recent data is pointing towards 80-90% mild symptoms or asymptomatic. Death rate will boil down to total infections which we can only hope are low and mainly centered on people under 40. To put that in perspective a 10% infection rate with .1% mortality is 33,000 deaths. .5% mortality with 50% is 825,000. We will learn an awful lot next week.
https://www.prb.org/countries-with-the-oldest-populations/
Good reference for pop age by country. Might be able to glean some trends by looking at other countries around 16% over 65.
so, remember the guy one of our contributors found two nights ago on Facebook who suggested the curve was beginning to bend in the state of Washington? some here pooh-poohed it. Well, University of Washington’s virology department just confirmed that. (So, for the first and only time I’m going to say: “Go Huskies.”) This intelligence, for those of you who are following things critically (ahem!), is why Washington governor Jay Inslee has resisted a complete lockdown–this, in the state, that was the original ground zero. Inslee can’t go public with that because some dweebs (Cougar fans?) will read it as an all-clear signal.
Then there’s this query: has anyone put their head around the logic of the Chinese government destroying early epidemiological records? I mean, why bother with that? Horse is out of the barn, right? Here’s why: the US gov’t has known since late January that this business of the virus breaking out in some farmer’s market in Wuhan is a cover story. It is, in fact, a biological weapon that got loose, perhaps intentionally, perhaps not. The Chinese are destroying those early records to cover those tracks. Truth. Trust me on this, like you trusted my sources on Heimlich’s legal status..
The one good thing in all this: we’ve seen “peak China,” (in the sense that we saw “peak oil” a decade ago).
The curve was beginning to bend in what direction?
We were at 4,000 cases on March 15th, and now we’re at 20,000 cases now, so it doesn’t seem to be slowing down. Actually testing people vs ignoring testing in the early stages has some effect on the numbers, thus making them pretty neutered.
it’s bending downward. yes, there are more cases but we actually have a curve now as opposed to a needle-nose like spike upward. Check that guy’s FB post. He was modeling what in fact has happened. The UW was the first institution of higher ed to close down, completely. (can I get another “go huskies”? Washington was the first state to close schools, in the Seattle area and then the whole state. talk about an inconvenient truth: kids are the key vector in its spread. diabolical.
As for nuclear: a lot of stories out there about the virus are Chinese propaganda. Are you going to believe Bruce Lee or our national intelligence sources? As long time readers of this blog know, I have never gone in for the political dialogue herein. When Jack would go off on his benders I’d simply log off and come back later. Trump can’t disclose this because the Chinese have us over the barrel in terms of some medical supplies. Everything happens for a reason.
How’s that Chinese rebellion going these days? Sparking back up now that everyone is feeling better or have they all been run through the ovens?
China is asshole.
https://youtu.be/BLF_iLuHtV8
Yo blackbandit thanks for making the distinction between China and Chinese. This was the point I was trying to make before. China as a nation and Government is 100% a flaming infected asshole.
Chinese people and and those of Chinese decent should be judged on merit at an individual basis like everyone else.
10/10 usage
^ Exactly.
Did you watch the YouTube link? That’s a Hong Kong protester. Hopefully that dude didn’t get liquidated.
yeah, brave guy imo. No one should trust china to do anything but look out for the needs of the few in power.
Without testing/enough test kits it’s hard to draw any conclusions.
There’s a shortage of kits, and that alone might explain a downward curve. If you can’t test, you can’t report. The bottom line is all governments have an incentive to hide the real numbers because of economics, and in our case, elections.
Sorry for the messy post. I was not able to figure out how to do embedded hyperlinks in this blog.
No I don’t have any opinion of Bruce Lee, I do appreciate that he cited sources so I could come to my own conclusions.
The open letter (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 ) with excerpts from the paper he references is from the authors of the original study in nature magazine. From my pedestrian understanding of of mircrobiology I agree with the presented study and its conclusion. Basic conclusion is that if it was engineered it used techniques that are far ahead of current understanding or execution ability. So I guess if you think China is several orders of magnitude ahead of everyone else in the world in microbiology then sure they could have done it. I do trust the authors (Dr. Anderson – https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=O5jeEesAAAAJ&hl=en , Dr. Rambaut – https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=JiYPDfoAAAAJ , Dr. Lipkin – https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=14Aoy60AAAAJ , Dr. Holmes – https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=Syrp1IMAAAAJ , Dr. Garry – https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=criecCgAAAAJ ) who are all undeniably true experts in the field compared to me or most people. That said I will be happy to see additional papers and research on the origin of the virus (https://scholar.google.com/scholar?as_ylo=2020&q=novel+coronavirus&hl=en&as_sdt=0,38 ) which admittedly is not a priority of research at the moment compared to understanding transmission, treatment methods and vaccine pathways.
As for motivations for why this possible conspiracy is being floated. China (https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/) and the US (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/world/asia/coronavirus-china-conspiracy-theory.html ) have been blamed for making the virus in a lab. Russia has been spinning disinformation and conspiracies (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-disinformation/russia-deploying-coronavirus-disinformation-to-sow-panic-in-west-eu-document-says-idUSKBN21518F ) to confuse everyone and create divisions as usual. Obviously it makes sense for all three of these countries to play blame game to guide the narrative for their own agendas.
As to the reason US politicians are saying these things I have trouble believing their motivations are pure. The president and his party compatriots spent three weeks wasting time preparing and testing dismissing (https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/25/21152514/trump-coronavirus-outbreak-covid-19-us-cases-vaccine ) the seriousness and calling it a hoax (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/28/trump-south-carolina-rally-coronavirus-118269 ) by his political adversaries to weaken him (https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1236975196642390022?lang=en ). This was echoed by many of the pundits on fox news (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/media/fox-news-coronavirus/index.html ) and members of the GOP.
Suddenly last week, as hospitals started to report stress and shortage while states started to take precautions the stock market crumpled under dual pressures from corona disruption and oil prices being crashed by OPEC and Russia playing oil supply chicken, trump and the GOP went into straight up freak out mode. They have boosted the stock markets artificially using the fed, made emergency measures for manufacturing supplies, ordered utilities and evictions stop, applied bail outs, applied socialist stimulus policy and suddenly started using new rhetoric. The new rhetoric is that trump is a wartime president (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/18/trump-administration-self-swab-coronavirus-tests-135590 ) against the chinese virus (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/politics/donald-trump-china-virus-coronavirus/index.html ) . Some people are even saying it was unintentional but as his own speech notes boldly show (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-chinese-virus-notes/ ) it is a very intentional choice of language.
So do I believe the chinese are massively ahead of the entire world in microbiology yet can’t figure out how to contain them? Do I believe a country would weaponize corona virus as a biological weapon and it has a lower assumed mortality rate than a bad flu? Do I believe they would pick something moderately infectious to weaponize over something insane like a more deadly small pox or measles? No, frankly I think that’s all pretty ridiculous if you take a step back from the spin and think about it.
Do I believe that a president who takes no responsibility for anything (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/13/trump-coronavirus-testing-128971 ) , confidently made huge cuts to CDC, NIH and WHO including the pandemic response office (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/trump-defended-cuts-public-health-agencies/608158/ ) , lies and misleads the public constantly (https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/479041-fact-checker-counts-16k-false-misleading-claims-by-trump-in-three ) and contradicts himself with his own fingers (https://twitter.com/trumpcontradic1 ) is intentionally using xenophobia, racism and nationalism to create an enemy to blame in china to distract from his own anemic response to a serious national threat. Yeah I definitely believe that he and the GOP would do that.
I would even hazard to say that the question he really doesn’t want floating around is, “If we had started stockpiling and deploying test kits to ports of entry as soon as the WHO made the manufacturing method and kits available would we have contained the virus with mild economic and social disturbance instead of shutting down the country, crashing the stock market (needed to be corrected anyways so whatever), and taking extreme fiscal policy just to keep people and companies from shutting down.
Lets not forget the news today that multiple congressmen in the GOP who were privy to intelligence briefings assured the public that the virus was under control while privately selling stocks, investing in companies that were likely to do well in a pandemic and informing wealthy donors to do the same (https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/488593-four-senators-sold-stocks-before-coronavirus-threat-crashed-market ).
Sorry to Jack but a proper response took a fair amount of links and words.
The cut to the pandemic response team are a hoax. https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/dems-misconstrue-trump-budget-remarks/
He cut one job, as did Obama.
As for GOP congresspeople profiting off of the pandemic briefing, they should hang. A long with the Dems you conveniently left out.
I haven’t seen any reports on Democrats but it is a developing 24 hr old story so I’m sure there will be plenty in our corrupt system who should hang for profiting off pain.
That’s a nice source, annberg foundation looks to be a good non-profit.
From what I’m reading it’s mostly saying that the quote is taken out of context (no surprise there). The only quote I see supporting the reorganization from someone not currently employed by the white house is John Bolton. Considering how bad the response has been I would consider it to be a mistake or atleast ineffective. Factcheck link does note 5.4% reduction in cdc staff.
Really sad to see a well documented and thought out post like this down voted. Really makes me question the quality of some of the posters here.
It would be nice if people explained what the issue was. I do appreciate black bandit posting something and backing it with a solid citation.
Nuke: I was going to share this earlier but decided against it. I have to share this now. You are right: the Chinese did not invent this virus. They stole it from a lab that was experimenting with it as a pre-emptive measure in anticipation of the very moment we find ourselves in. They let it loose, perhaps as a calculated move or out of incompetence.
Can you link a sources?
The study literally comes to the conclusion that no one on earth has the expertise to create several of.the protien structures and also synthesize the connection location to bonding proteins. Are you saying there’s secret labs doing biological weapons research 2 orders of magnitude ahead of the best labs on earth and their security is lax enough for physical theft?
Your first link is from Vox. That was enough for me to skip your whole post. I skimmed back through after you complained about it. Vox. CNN. Snopes. You search for information in places that will confirm your own biases.
The first link is to the letter written by the scientists that was presented in nature.
You are just making personal attacks to discredit me without making any argument or presenting anything yourself. Try presenting evidence/sources and engaging in discourse. Literally admitting that you don’t read any of my argument cause you don’t like it is just sticking your head in a hole. You are literally accusing me of doing exactly what you just did without any basis knowledge of my research methods, what I read, how I analyze information and come to my own conclusions. Didn’t even bother asking me how I do those things just made a broad assumption because I have ideas you don’t like. Pointing out bias of media sources is the most pointless argument you can make. Show me a single media source that is unbiased, that would be a lovely source to have. I subscribe to many sources and I read sources that I don’t like and stories I don’t like intentionally to not get stuck in a small niche of information, do you do the same? Of course the sources I posted support my argument? Does supporting your argument with available information make it inherently untrue? Those are convenient places to read that support my argument, they should be read and people should do their own research to make their own conclusion.
Interesting that you have nothing to say about the actual letter or credentials of the scientists which was the original issue.
It’s not the increases of cases it’s the rate of increase by day. It has been confirmed over the past few days the WA curve is flattening. Still a long way to go but this is a good early sign.
Has it also been confirmed they’re testing every person who shows symptoms? Because most of what I’ve read said extreme shortage of kits to the point most people showing symptoms can’t be tested. I actually know a few people in real life who couldn’t be tested due to lack of kits. If they can’t test everyone in WA showing symptoms, then it can’t be concluded the curve is flattening. Hopefully it is but again without testing you can’t know that.
Here in Colorado we know people who had all the symptoms and went to their doctor, and they said if it’s not bad enough to warrant hospitalization they can’t test them.
We also have friends in GA and it’s 84 degrees with cases exploding, so the summer/heat theory doesn’t bode well. Looking at the map of the South is disheartening. Looks like maybe the dry/hot areas have some type of advantage.
Agreed it way too soon to understand if there is a seasonality variable to this virus. What I do find interesting is in countries that have wide spread malaria ( Africa and SE Asia) the outbreak seems to be much more muted. Possible reason those people take anti malaria medication the same medication Trump has talked about the past couple of days (hydroxychloroquine). There have been an initial study done in France that is quite promising. Maybe this is the silver built to slow this thing down until we can get a vaccine.
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/19/french-study-finds-anti-malarial-and-antibiotic-combo-could-reduce-covid-19-duration/
I mention the hydrocloroquine above, it truly looks promising. Even if it only helps 50% of the infected, it’s something. The South Koreans are also using it but cocktailed with different drug’s then the French are using. I was reading the peer review the night before Trump announced it and was wondering why this isn’t been used here, then bam there it is. The only bad thing I can see with this is the fact that a lot of people have allergic reactions to azithromycin.
One cool deal about hydrocloroquine is it’s also prescribed to lupus and rheumatoid arthritis sufferers, so it’s in almost every pharmacy in the us and its inexpensive and easy to make. We have 2 manufacturers of it in the US. So by the time they figure out it’s the best way to combat the Chinese flu, the Affordable Care Act will force the price up to $500 a pill.
Washington is ahead of most states, Oregon is sending their tests up to UW. I am not sure the tests are all that accurate, been reading speculation the virus has mutated and there are 3 strain out there. Might help to explain why some countries are being hit harder than others.
thanks for the clarification. in response to angry I said the curve is bending down but flattening is the right way to conceive of the metric. The number is cumulatively higher each day, of course, but the rate of increase in the state of Washington seems to be leveling off. The system is still under duress.
You don’t need to test everyone to get a big enough sample to understand the graph trend. It’s the % of positives vs total tests for each particular day. Enough tests are being done to have a large enough sample size.
We’ve tested 0.02% of our population, the is literally zero clue how widespread this is.
We do know how many deaths that is a hard number that can’t be disputed. We can apply the same mathematical principals to estimate the arc of the epidemic.
@Go92. Reported deaths may not be accurate. They are only rrporting cases with positive tests and there is a shortage. I don’t have an easy source but I would hazard a guess that death by respiratory infection/complications is on the rise. Hospitalizations #s are being repressed in several states (including Oregon).
I hope the current numbers are accurate cause it’s pretty positive in terms of scale. Not an assumption I would make in my math though.
They are testing people who have died of pulmonary and respiratory illnesses at the morgue. Thats how they caught the gal from eugene who died from what was perceived as as heart attack, but ended up testing positive after she died.
That brings up a whole new complication, those who died OF the virus and those who did WITH the virus. Germany is classifying their mortality rates this way, but why I’m not sure or how they separate the 2. Obviously if you die in a car crash and test positive that’s not the viruses fault, but their 2 stat lines are pretty close in numbers.
@BB, that’s great info thanks! I hadn’t heard that they were catching up that way. It’s so important to get the best information we can for future preparedness.
We’ll never be prepared for future pandemics, the only thing we can do is hope modern vaccine development improves to where one could be made in the matter of weeks. And red tape surrounding health care is cut to allow faster reactions and ramp ups to combat it.
Something interesting I read about these ventilators the media is screaming about. Even if we had thousands instantly over night we don’t have the work force to properly run those machines. It is a kin to radiology in the complexity of use. And even if we had the properly trained work force, you are dire straights if they put you on one. Its basically the very last resort as far as treatment goes.
I wonder what makes them so complex? Controls? Seals? Gas mixtures? We have had iron lungs for like 100 years so you would think we could simplify it to color coded nobs and alarms by now.
Idk of there has ever been so many entities working on a single vaccine at the same time, perhaps some innovations can be made.
Red tape is always a problem
Update: my friends wife is an RN, I happened to see them this morning and mentioned the info I learned above. I was miss informed or misunderstood the ventilator info. So they don’t have techs (except guys that actually service that equipment) RN are responsible for the use of them. But the problem comes with the number of RNs. She said a good RN could maybe cover 3 ventilators at once. But that it require none stop movement for 12 hour shift because they’re labor intensive. In reality 2 is still tough but manageable.
Ahhh okay, that makes lots of sense. Sounds like we need some clever controls types to work on getting more software for monitoring and response in them to reduce the required man hours.
Gobeavers 92 gets it.
The US’ exponential rate of change (i.e. calculus) is now exceeding that of Italy. I’m not sure he gets it, but people will see what they want to see, so I get it. Spain and the US have the worst calculus right now. And this is with the US waking up and going on lockdown. P.S. There have been 300 new cases diagnosed in the US in the two minutes it took me to write this comment.
I don’t think the comment that Washington has flattened the curve is going to age well, but I hope it does.
if you switch the chart on the world meter site to logarithmic instead of linear you can see the rate of change much better. it did start to slow down for a minute but I think that might have just been the test kit shortage showing up. Now that test kits are much more available the data seems to be getting more consistent and matching statistical models better. Deaths are not cranking up as fast infections so far which is really good. Hoping our treatment methods are improving world wide. As long as we don’t run out of supplies, healthcare workers and beds I think the mortality should be lower than other regions. If we get overwhelmed its going to be a problem.
Are you talking mortality or new cases? New cases are going to skyrocket once testing becomes more wide spread. In fact the fda announced this morning a new faster test kit is now available.
Before (or even right this minute)only people with symptoms are getting tested. They weren’t even testing people who were in the same household as someone who was diagnosed positive. They just told those to go home and quarantine. So a family of 4, one gets it, shows signs 2-5 days after infection, there is a damn good chance everyone in that house has it. They think that people are shedding this virus within 24 hours of initial infection regardless of symptoms.
I was kinda talking both. Got any source on the 24 hour part? I have been seeing 10-14 day incubations, 10-14 days for serious symptoms, 3-5 days for mild symptoms and infectious that whole time. I have also seen asymptomatic/mild for 85-90% of the infected population. With mortality I was trying to say that it looks like the rate might not be that high because despite catching up on test kits the rate of change of deaths wasn’t changing much (positive test/death ratio improving as we get more tests).
Kinda falling apart today though as positive tests and deaths are tracking as the epidemiologists interviews, that I have heard, described.
UPDATE: here’s is an article with some excellent numbers and info. The info is more up to date then what I have been reading recently.
http://theconversation.com/coronavirus-how-long-does-it-take-to-get-sick-how-infectious-is-it-will-you-always-have-a-fever-covid-19-basics-explained-132963
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/03/17/covid-19-coronavirus-did-not-come-from-a-lab-study-shows-natural-origins/
So I’m reading about the current Federal Reserve shenanigans. Conclusion: creative…I’ll give them that, but holy fuck we’re doomed.
Link?
I read the FED’s site…the actual programs.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/monetary20200317b1.pdf
There’s all kinds of info and charts on their site.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/
I don’t know why they have .gov because they’re a private bank, not part of the government…oh wait, yeah I do.
My fed as a pastime knowledge is showing. I have no idea what most of that meant haha.
What were the creative bits?
They basically just bailed out everything…pensions, (large)hedge funds, banks, etc, by taking their shitty corporate debt and equity (all at about half price right now) and giving a full 100 cents on the dollar. And by them I mean we, since taxpayers are on the hook for any loss at the FED. They claim this is a 90 day “loan”, but after 90 days that loan will just roll over. So it’s now permanent repo, which is what many of the skeptical/critical economists out there feared. Shocker, the critical people were right…
The creative part is how they do it via the primary dealers in a backdoor manner since they aren’t legally allowed (per the federal reserve act of 1913) to buy that crap.
So far it’s failing for various reasons. I think they will go to Congress and ask for permission to buy corporate debt and equities direct.
Holy donkey balls O_o
But wait, there’s more!
The Fed is also increasing foreign central bank FX swaps, exchanging dollars for foreign currencies that have been dropping continuously. We’re basically bailing out central banks around the world now (who have not been immune to their own misguided policies).
I’m reading the PR to mean the only bonds they’re excepting are AAA rated, which doesn’t mean they’re totally safe, but it’s different from buying junk HY stuff like, for example, shale O&G bonds.
So, that’s something, I guess.
The CDS, MBS, etc house of cards securitized debt crap is the worst because it’s so lucrative and exclusive to the uber wealthy, then they never have to suffer the consequences of the systemic risk they’re creating (for the second time now!)
I’m reading the PR to mean the only bonds they’re excepting are AAA rated
I don’t see that in the language anywhere. Are you deducting that from “plus investment grade corporate debt”? Sounds like that’s just in addition to the junk (if they’re accepting MBS, which is probably the biggest junk out there right now, then they’re accepting all junk). I don’t see the phrasing “only investment grade” anywhere. Another problem is that much AAA debt is actually closer to junk; Moody’s just won’t downgrade them for their own financial reasons. This is why credit is seizing right now.
The Fed is also increasing foreign central bank FX swaps, exchanging dollars for foreign currencies that have been dropping continuously. We’re basically bailing out central banks around the world.
Yep. There’s a lot of evidence they’ve been doing this on and off for the past decade. Now it might become permanent, but at the very least it’s ramping up. As stated above, it’s a banking cartel. Thus they will bail one another out.
Ah I misread. The footnote that refers to “AAA only” is referencing all the derivative crap. It’s well documented the ratings for this stuff mean little (see: The Big Short).
the Marc Maron comedy on Netflix is pretty funny….early on he talks about how most people mentally process things and accept things as truth…you know, like Duck fans…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lf9-BCix4io
A tasteful, respectful version…
up above Nuke asks if I can provide a link to document my assertion, but the thread ran out of respond prompts so I’m here instead. To Nuke: would providing a link to Vox or Fox be dispositive? You yourself stated that the media world is awash in propaganda and counterpropaganda. Where does that information ultimately present itself: media reports and internet stories.
I said at the outset I had a reliable source. You can examine the logic model of the argument I have laid out serially in this thread and either you find it cogent or you don’t, but the fact that the story has yet to appear in a media source does not mean it is wrong or misleading.
It means its unfounded. I can just as easily claim I have a source that its been created by aliens or its a plague sent by a higher power. I never asked for non-media sources. If you have a media source then post it, others can examine it and come to conclusions based on the claims and evidence presented. Unless you are leaking information from some intelligence community and don’t feel like you can disclose the source I don’t really see what the hold up is.
Claiming a state is responsible for a pandemic and massive economic damage to the whole world is pretty serious.
Lab or not, how China let this out into the world due to their early utter mismanagement and censorship is beyond “pretty serious” and it is mindboggling how many people are letting them off the hook.
Here is one commentator who isn’t letting the Chinese Government off the hook:
He says, “It’s important to stress that it’s not the Chinese people who are the problem. Just look at their success in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and the United States. The ChiComs are the problem.
If the Chinese government spent as much time working on educating its people and regulating dangerous markets as it does on secrecy and propaganda efforts, maybe it wouldn’t have to worry as much about diseases being named after it—or about the catastrophic death and economic pain their negligence helps cause.”
https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/03/20/coronavirus-is-the-chinese-governments-curse-upon-the-world/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=coronavirus-is-the-chinese-governments-curse-upon-the-world?utm_source=TDS_Email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MorningBell&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTVRKaU1Ua3lZVEZoTVRGayIsInQiOiJzZU1FaUswQVBLQUtrZ1NYZmxBWG11WDZlMGZEUkNDM3hjRjhZZU1HVXpSRHVOU2ZmNWFYTTU0NXBJOXg2Q2NoTTZaTklpTHlPbGhOQjd5d1YwbWJGa3ZBMXlNNDJhK1ErTEZ6S2d0bWFwVm4yenc1eW9KSSt1OUtyYmVTV00rYiJ9
^^^^ Completely agree with that.
One can hope the only good that comes of this is people in China question their government…………
And we get off China even more. Both would make it all worth it.
Opposite effect is happening. Chinese people feeling smug and that their government is validated by the (claimed) suppression of the virus in China while it runs rampant around the globe.
Those poor (brainwashed) bastards…
to you, Nuke, it appears unfounded. I understand. But it’s not. I’ve already said too much, I fear. But since we’re facing a Depression square in the face and with that the possible breakdown of civil society I thought it was worth sharing so that the readers of this blog “know the score,” so to speak..
“Baseball: End of an Era”
More like “America: End of an Era”
Blows me away how many people are actually bothered by calling it the wuhan virus. No one as far as i know has every complained about the names of any other virus that has popped up in the last century. Wonder why now?
Chineses food is called that because that type of cuisine originated there. This bug originated there, so lets call it what it is. A bug that came from china.
Seems to me it’s a SJW thing. Similar to HOARDING TP, it is something to be doing in response to the situation. Neither action is productive but some types just “feel better” that way, and for many it’s all about feelings!
That said, anyone who attacks a person because that person appears to be Asian needs to be dealt with by the courts.
Off Topic: “Hate Crime” legislation is unnecessary, there are long standing statutes that can adequately deal with intimidation, bullying, and physical violence.
Is that a real question or just baiting for funsies?
Perhaps i should have put (sarc)?
If you’re not patroning chinese restaurants or eating chinese food, you are a racist!!!!
I would prefer our leaders use the scientific term. There are a lot of idiots out there and when the president scapegoats China instead of facing up to and correcting his own failings we lose valuable time for one and for two it emboldens the nut jobs racists. I agree China should have been more forthcoming about the crisis, they should have been more worried about stopping the disease than the numbers. But on the flip side Trump has basically followed the deny and minimize game plan that China did. So if you are pissed at China be pissed at Trump too because we can actually vote to change that.
Do you think we’ll have a football season? Most evidence points to this thing coming back harder in the Fall. We finally have a good team. Luck o’ da……….
Man i hope so.
I would say the biggest thing that impacts how fast we can get back to normal is testing. Vaccine won’t be here in time for fall. Maybe there will be some treatments that saves lives but not the spread.
The end result needs to be testing basically everyone and returning results within a day( and honestly inside a few hours). Quarantine those who are infected.
Right now, creation of testing kits are ramping up but nowhere near what’s needed. Next will be clearing the backlog at testing facilities. They’ll have to clear millions of people with a short turnaround time. Do they have the capacity?
So the govt needs not just millions but hundreds of millions of test kits. One initial test. Then a couple more for clearing people after they’ve been infected.
So we have to quarantine ourselves now while the kits are made and the capacity to test the kits increases.
If they can test everyone in the USA and clear the results in two weeks, we could have normalcy. It’ll still come back but we can keep it contained while waiting for a vaccine. Or hopefully have effective treatments for those who do get infected.
That sounds accurate.
There’s no way that all large group events are canceled in the fall. The economic impact will already be to great in May and people are going to want shit back to normal.
They’ve basically abandoned mass testing as a strategy since there isn’t enough PPE and no real treatments either. They’re telling everyone to stay home and are calling it a day.
I think herd immunity is going to set in much sooner than people realize. The way the virus has community spread to every corner of the country and every corner of the globe combined with the amount of celebrities testing positive without symptoms makes me think there are 15 to 30 million people right now infected with this. In fact I believe I could possibly have it, still waiting on a test result of a coworkers family member that would leave me to believe the “crud” I have been dealing with is in fact the coronavirus. And if it is much more widespread than believed then that means we are closer to herd immunity than we believe. I am sure the lockdown in Wuhan helped but it is also possible that they are getting close to herd immunity.
BACK TO SPORTS POST!
Somehow I stumbled onto this youtube channel. Made by one or all of the Dockerys. Can’t tell.
BUT it has some insight into the GA era.
https://www.youtube.com/user/Dockeryyy/videos
Thats pretty cool! Any specific videos worth looking at for GA insight? Its a lot to get through haha
What I find interesting about this whole thing is that governments are actually making the human race weaker. Governments are essentially anti natural selection. All of the quarantining and sheltering in place just protects the weak and allows those genes to propagate. Of course there are many more examples of governments protecting the weak (physically and mentally). I’m not saying I don’t advocate for helping the weak because that would make me heartless, but natural selection is heartless. And it ensures the survival of a species. So as the human species gets weaker and weaker, we will rely more and more on governments to protect us. A virus may be what eventually wipes out all humans, and the Earth will once again be ruled by animals that survive with no governments.
Kind of an extreme view but the point is definitely real on a macro scale. Humans have been self selecting for some time now and our ability to keep people with ‘flaws’ alive has definitely changed the game. I doubt its that simple on a short time scale but on a very large time scale it is for sure. The next step is gene correction and modification where we are using directed selection over self selection. That will have its own set of issues (who gets to select, what do we eliminate, do sports matter, welath inequality becoming genetic inequality).
For example there is a gene set that allows people to only need about 3 hours of sleep. Those people almost always tend to be more productive and successful than the general population. So do we modifty everyone to have that gene or do rich people patent it and the inequality becomes greater as they essentially become their own sub-species. Sticky times ahead!
Thanks, Charles Doozwin.
I’m not sure natural selection is working anyway. Like there’s no way Shaq should be wealthier than everyone on this site combined. We’re much smarter, and intelligence should have much more value than dunking a ball in a hoop. Just saying.
Well we are not naturally selecting. We determine our own selection. Natural is like don’t get eaten or die from common allergies in the savanah. Ever since we rose above that we have been selecting for other stuff. Intelligence, ability to hit stuff with swords, physical traits that have unknown real value, fasion sense, financial sense blah blah blah. We select socially.
Basketball players are giant weirdos who would never be able to hide from predators and whos bodies would fall apart in primitive context. We invented sports though so they are great at dunking those pumpkins. We attribute worth in ridiculous things if you take a step back. Butt implants are a booming industry.
I was half joking.
In theory, Natural Selection would happen in any system (not just the one we currently have). In fact, the prime incentives in Natural Selection are survival and procreation. You could say the wealthiest in our society generally aren’t doing well on the procreation side.
The wealthiest countries/ethnicities are facing collapse because demographics are against them. This is mostly because survival and procreation are no longer their prime incentives, as survival is taken for granted and leisure has taken the place of procreation thanks to technological advancements and the concept of money. On one level, it doesn’t matter how many children you create if you can store your wealth and maintain it over a long period of time. On another, it still does because the whole monetary system requires endless expansion. It just takes longer for lower procreation rates to catch up to people when they have alternative means of storing wealth.
I guess ultimately, the real question is what motivates you? Money isn’t always the prime incentive for intelligent people (often because they’ve figured out more money won’t make them happy.) The uber-wealthy are often sociopaths because it takes apathy toward certain things to rise to the top and dedicate substantial time toward the things society values the most. Even for people who are brilliant strategists/high-level thinkers, their skill set is at odds with being able to connect with humans on a personal level. You can’t have 4 sigma wealth with average focus and there are only so many hours in the day.
But in the society we’ve developed, wealths buys you the ability to survive. It buys you food and a home for shelter, it buys you access to the best healthcare, and in a lot of cases it allows access to better mates. As Nuke said, we don’t really have “natural” selection in our society, it’s a fabricated selection process.
Worked for Steve Jobs.
Right on, let’s eliminate the Stephen Hawkings of the world and have more physically gifted meatheads. Yea, eugenics!
The University of Maryland is up with an interesting study. The virus is thriving in zones with similar winter climates having an average temperature of 41 to 52 F, and an average humidity of 47-79%, which falls in a narrow east-west band running between 30-50 N.
https://www.umaryland.edu/news/archived-news/march-2020/researchers-predict-potential-spread-and-seasonality-for-covid-19-.php
Nice find Wanna! Thanks for sharing. Really hoping that bares out cause places like India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Bangledesh in that heat have me pretty worried.
The lab theory really isn’t crazy at all. Of all places for a megavirus virus to pop up, it just HAPPENS to be at a market very close to a major virology lab. That is suspicious, to say the least.
Also consider, why would China want to cover it up so badly? If it was from the lab and the world knew, it could literally cascade into WW3.
I’m not saying this is what happened, but it makes too much sense to completely discount, and I have not seen convincing evidence (only faulty arguments) against it.
What’s faulty in the nature paper that claims it’s not man made?
Which paper? Got a link? I’ve seen various things floating around
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
There’s a giant ridiculous post from me about 100 comments up with a bunch of links to the authors and other stuff.
I read the article, thanks for the link. It was similar to what I read earlier. The argument basically appears to boil down to “it could have been made more deadly, so it wasn’t a bioweapon” and “they would have based off other known sequences but this isn’t”. The first argument is incredibly weak, and the second is irrelevant if we assume the lab was doing its own top secret research.
There’s also they some of the protiens and bonding methods are outside current understanding to synthesize. If China made it they are scary ahead of everyone else.
Would you be surprised if they were?
Yes I would be very surprised if they were that far ahead
“If China made it they are scary ahead of everyone else…very surprised if they were that far ahead”
Sun Tzu (he was Chinese, no?) famously said, “…Seem humble to fill them with conceit.” And, of ones enemy, “Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant.”
Underestimating a foe can be a HUGE mistake.
@OOB, I get the sentiment but when does China ever under posture? Their entire government concept is fake it tell you make it. It wouldn’t be weird for them to be top in the world perhaps but thats very very very very ahead. Thats like were playing legos and they are making a space elevator.
China doesn’t have to be ahead, they just have to pay off the right people and steal the shit. Nothing new
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/harvard-university-professor-and-two-chinese-nationals-charged-three-separate-china-related
The country to worry about now is Mexico. They aren’t taking much if any precautions. They are primed for a gigantic outbreak and numbers are definitely under reported there.
Wonder if the weather pattern theory would be in their favor though?
I think Liga MX (Mexican soccer) was still playing this weekend albeit in closed stadiums. I saw games listed on Desportes ESPN.
Great. There could be 100% infection rate there, and when Biden gets in, he’ll leave the border open as ever because saving American lives is racism or some shit
Fake news. They are definitely behind the curve and AMLO deserves criticism for not taking it seriously earlier, but they have closed schools, workplaces are enforcing work from home, and they’re generally moving down the path other countries have of social distancing.
Testing has been extremely minimal, which is an issue.
AMLO was probably slow to react because their economy was basically stagnant before COVID. There is going to be a major increase in social unrest and, unfortunately, probably gang activity.
thanks, Nuke. As OOB has long since known, I’m not technically capable of making a link, but where I can point the way I am happy to let other do so; this is effective division of labor. (In fact, I’m so backward technologically that I sent Angry CASH in order to help support this site, which, by the way, has become even more valuable than it was when we had sports.)
Anytime, if you give me an author/institution and parts of the header with some kind of helpful info (like provided stats) I can probably find the paper or a story for ya.
Cash is king! Well unless Angry is right about the feds.
Cash IS King. Hey, we agree on something! (By the way, did Smith make the right call when it went for it on 4th down in Pullman?)
Yes it was the right call! The math says do it and it was a season of learning with very little to lose.
Nothing wrong with disagreeing as long as we try to keep it respectful. Discourse with people you don’t see eye to eye with is one of the best ways to learn about experiences outside your own.
People in my inflamitory autoimmune disorder group are getting denied scripts at pharmacies for plaquenil (Hydroxychloroquine) and have to get mailed filling direct from distributers now.
If people want a primer on immune system pathways/function, covid 19 and immunosuppressants I can write up another large post with links and such. I run a fairly large community for inflamitory autoimmune disorders and have a firm understanding at an intermediate level. Just upvote this post and I’ll do a write up if there is interest.
We shouldn’t have a problem shortly.
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/Teva-Rushes-to-Bring-Malaria-Drug-to-U-S-15144631.php
I don’t think there is a real shortage. Its one of the cheapest, easiest to manufacture and stockpiled drugs on earth. Mostly I think they just want to control distribution and keep people from rioting on pharmacies.
Nuke, is Rheumatoid arthritis considered an inflammatory autoimmune disorder?
Yup, it’s pretty much the original. There’s about 10 kinds but Rheumatoid, Psoriatic and Spondylosis are the main diagnosis.
I have never been this ¡angrybeavs! before Jaja well done friends yes hello celebrating
Huh?
PERSPECTIVE:
** The 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic killed 675,000 out of US population of 103,268,000 or about — 1 in 200
** The 2020 Coronavirus has killed 348 (so far) out of a population of 333,546,000 or less than — 1 in a million
(347) died from the flu last week
Spanish flu lasted three years and had three waves. The first wave was the least damaging.
Something, something fat lady singing
Honestly nuke, im not questioning what this (could) turn into. Im just completely amazed by the panic and stupidity that so many have defaulted to. I do not mean you specifically, i just see so many people already laid off, businesses closed, and our elected betters selling my great grandchildren’s future with a possible $4 trillion “stimulus” and i say slow down. Some perspective is needed in imho.
Yeah its a hard one. There is no doubt that a mistake either way kills people and hurts everyone. Seriously glad I am not in charge of making any of these decisions. Its really obvious that the response is a serious slippery slope. How you respond initially can have huge impacts down stream which will affect billions for the forseeable future.
I know I’m getting annoying ringing the “its serious” gong.
Edit: Actual question: When would be the right time for these responses? In an exponential phenomenon how do you balance potential death of citizens vs economic damage (which also causes death)?
It is a hard call. Have to trust those that are elected as well as the professionals that are helping in setting policy. Not always easy to do as politics are unfortunately always involved. I think the director of WHO coming out and giving a hard number of a %3.4 death rate was unprofessional and idiotic. There was very little data out there to set a hard number. And even with what is known now its clear the death rate is different from country to country. And with literally dozens of different models out there, as well as many healthcare professionals own personal thoughts you have much to wade through. Its a hard call, any way you look at it.
On a personal note I have a daughter in Washington that is a dental hygienist and she was just laid off until at least May 18th. Her husband(a coug) is still working but its a worry. Oldest son is a firefighter/paramedic and is very concerned. The lack of PPE is becoming very real and his thoughts are we as a country are not prepared and we are going to be swamped in a few weeks. We shall see.
I think its extremely hard in times like this for everyone. We get hit with personal hardships that seem large until someone we love is sick or in the trenches. Its totally natural to have the most pressing issues be the ones that affect us the most at any given time. For instance before I got diagnosed with Psoriatic Arthritis I never thought about pre-existing condition clauses and only had mild interest in healthcare prices or medication. Now I have nightmares that we lose the protection and I have to make the choice between paying 75k a year for my meds or not be able to walk, deteriorate, and die before I’m 45. Oh and I can’t get life insurance from anyone despite being 30 and in decent health otherwise.
I hope the best for your daughter and her community and also hope that Senate figures itself out so that people can get the help they need. Its great her husband is still employed but loss of income for young famlies is brutal. I have some cambridge N95 masks coming in sometime in March, when they come in ill check in with you to see if he or anyone he knows needs protection. I was planning on keeping them for my family (ordered them in January as part of my mild preping obsession and for my protection in flu season not for covid) but i’m going to donate the 5 I have coming in.
Unfortunately I think your son is right. The US data today is pretty explosive.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
take it easy man its just a few peeps trying to get signed up for those sweet sweet fun-enjoyment checks from the gubment. the time to panic is whenever i think i can get away with skipping work and cash in on it. Oh and governor please make sure i don’t have to pay my taxes or rent either. thanx
Didn’t you hear, one 72 year old lady died in Oregon last Friday and she had the Rona. Hell no I ain’t going to work ever! Gimme my free money! If you make me go to work then Errbody gonna DIE!!
Your respect for human suffering and life is admirable.
I look at this thing like a tornado warning. The actual odds of a tornado hitting you are quite small. But if there are conditions that create tornados, if there are tornados reported in the area – you can minimize deaths and improve emergency response by alerting everyone to shelter in place and stay off the roads. And unlike tornadoes – when one tornado causes havoc it doesn’t have the liklihood of creating two or three more tornadoes with each house it destroys. And then those tornadoes…
Interesting metaphor. I’m really glad Tornados don’t reproduce!
its like a tornado except that when it hits you it just makes you feel like shit for a couple days then you’re fine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_J60fQr0GWo
5476 dead italians disagree.
13000 new cases and 94 new deaths today…US
It’s going to get a lot worse. Not sure how people don’t understand the math (500,000 by Friday, 1 mil by the following week) of this and think the curve is under control. Doubling every few days now despite all the measures we’re taking to isolate. 2% of cases are serious/critical, too. Millions will get it in the US, maybe half the population, barring a vaccine. New York has 22k cases and only 61k tests.
How many die? We’ll see, but my guess is 3-4% (of who get it) globally based on what it does to the lungs and the preliminary numbers. Countries with better healthcare who were able to lower the curve might be slightly lower.
China government now demanding business owners turn on their electric to make it appear like they’re back up and functioning. Polluting the environment for no reason and trying to lie to the rest of the world that all’s well. That regime needs to go. They didn’t stop anything with the virus other than reporting numbers.
You see the latest update on US numbers? My hopes are definitely in the toilet.
Edit: I think people just want to believe its not going to be bad cause its comforting and easier.
Yes. My comments yesterday about the rate of change, etc, reflect the reality/probability of getting 14k new cases overnight. Not at all shocking to me. Again, we will be at 500,000 by Friday, and we will be at 1 million by 4/3. This is the math.
The US now has the 2nd worst rate of change after Italy. China stopped reporting numbers all together — been stuck on 81k for two weeks now, and that’s actually impossible, so they’re just lying.
From the papers I have read and loads of statistician/epidemiolgist interviews I have heard my assumption is that 20% of the US is already infected. Math on that works out to 6.6 million people who need some kind of hospitilization and 200-600k deaths depending on the data you use for an average mortality rate of serious cases.
Really hope I suck at math and the data is bad in the right way.
Well your math already does suck because that’s 65 million (327mil * .20) not 6.6 million.
Right not critical cases are 2%…until we see how many of them die won’t know those rates, especially per age group.
The data is bad (why I was skeptical of the Washington numbers above) for many reasons, so there’s that. Unfortunately there is a lag in the disease/symptoms and also the testing, so I think the numbers will be bad in the wrong direction (if we’re testing and reporting accurately).
In not that bad at math! I’m assuming only 10% of infected have symptoms worth of intercession (latest numbers is 85-90% are asymptomatic or have mild cold like symptoms) and that 10% of those die.
I would look at big population centers for more accurate data. They got priority on test kits.
here’s the thing though, Angry, and as an inveterate Riley skeptic, you know that I’m not a Pollyanna. Several days ago Fauci couldn’t have been more forthright in stipulating that as there was more testing there would be many more cases discovered; the implication being that no one should be surprised. The problem, as several have said including yourself, there are hundreds of thousands more circulating asymptomatically. It’s going to take time to identify them.
Yeah. Agree with all that.
Also agree self isolation can keep the numbers down. Just not sure they stay down when people go back out. I’m expecting between 500k and 1mil cases by early April. But I’m open to the rate of change changing, if it actually does and can be proven to be slowing. My skepticism would then become “won’t it just come back as soon as we go outside?”…the only benefit of isolation being keeping strain off the hospitals. Anyway, this is all very surreal. I’m really hoping it doesn’t hit any closer to home than it has.
WBB: (y’all had to expect a WBB post from this old Beav, right?)
Angry and the rest of you degenerates can watch his old gal Marie lead the Beavs to victory over Baylor two years ago in a link provided in this column by Ron Callan. A distraction for an hour and a half, enjoy.
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/message-oregon-state-wbb-fans-162331716.html
Walked by Goss yesterday afternoon to get some exercise. The front entrance was ajar so went in. A couple of guys doing a little touch up work on one of the dugouts. Picked a nice seat behind home plate, sat down and imagined a sunny afternoon at the ball park. Hang in there…. we’ll all be back.
We have our first positive case in the US Senate.
Rand Paul has tested positive for Covid19.
https://www.axios.com/rand-paul-coronavirus-847b3df1-92bc-4ee6-833b-952d16f3ee3f.html
He’s an awful human being, so I guess karma… I’m sure he will use his socialized, government medical care to get treatment now.
Hard not to agree with that. Off to Canada for his treatment.
First step will be to remove that muskrat that lives on top of his head.
Lol actually the best Senator we have. The man actually sticks to his principles.
Unless you like a govt that uses drones to bomb half the world including its own citizens.
His principles suck donkey dicks.
Keep dropping bombs and feeling good about yourself.
The networks make a regular feature out of the daily White House briefings, which I find riveting in an odd sort of way. But if you have a chance, you need to catch Governor Cuomo’s daily briefings. Calm, measured criticism where warranted (today it was careless youth and DeBlasio), occasionally witty. It’s easy to say now because I just saw on my phone feed that Cuomo has become a national figure and presidential material. I came to that conclusion earlier in the week watching how he handles himself. The smartest thing Biden could do is throw identity politics in the trash can and designate Cuomo as his running mate.
I have had trouble with Cuomo in the past but usually is just his preener brother Chris reflecting on him. Overall I think hes a good governor and hes really doing a great job right now. The white house briefings are something else.
Logical but he adds nothing to electoral map as NY is a blue lock. Will probably go with Midwest woman like Amy K.
If he really wants to swing the map he should run with Kamala Harris. Shes smart and can do the work for him but also would bring enthusiasm to some essential demographics. The people who are scared of a black lady vp wouldn’t vote for a democrat anyways.
And she’s not afraid to suck an old guy’s dick to get things done.
Willie Brown approves this message.
Except progressives hate Kamala because she’s a cop who made a career out of putting people in jail for non-violent crimes.
Biden already polls well with black voters. They need someone who will help swing moderates and who actually seems mentally capable. Amy K already “slipped up” and announced herself. Conservatives were gushing over her after debates. She seems like a reasonable choice.
There is no VP candidate that progressives would be happy with. Possibly Warren but she brings very little to the map. They would be fine with Bernie but no way that happens.
Moderates are not the problem with Biden. It’s the hard left Bernie bros who can’t stand him. Not left enough. I work with a burnt-out, he’s been screaming about the dems cheating him twice. Said he’s just going to write him in, lol ok dude.
@BB. So he’s voting for Trump…again.
No he’s moved farther left the past few years, he admits voting for Hillary because Bernie said so. After the info on the fix against Bernie came out is when reality started to leave him.
Up until Bernie dropped out this month, he was saying the Democrat party was dead, Bernies socialism will work, Biden is CIA plant, Bloomberg is a CIA plant, the mayor of south bend guy (I don’t want to butcher his name) is a CIA plant. Its pretty epic lunatic ranting.
the hell with demographics. We need leadership. Harris strikes me as a vindictive opportunist.
“If drafted I shall not serve.”
yes, but to quote Napoleon Dynamite, Cuomo has actual skills. Not nun-chuks and bow staffs perhaps, but he comes across as a confident, decisive leader.
Yeah he would be a good pick. I don’t like Harris, was just saying she’s a good demographic pick
forgot the “r” twice in that post…
Just got this email from my brother, regarding his best friend’s cousin.
“Aaron’s cousin is dying of corona. 47 years old. No preexisting. He just found out. Went from fine to ventilator in 2 1/2 days. No travel, no known contact. Was given a 10 to 15% survival chance.”
Well shit, thats close to home.
Yeah getting closer…probably won’t long before it hits someone I/we directly know.
Yeah I heard he passed out at 31 flavors last night, I guess it’s pretty serious.
You’re making fun of my brother’s friend dying? Congrats on the only active ban.
Quite the roll today for him. Even apparently a client trying to dox me which is neat. Hopefully he is just on a bender
Aka a total asshole adding nothing to the site. Goodbye.
C’mon, that was a well placed Ferris Bueller quote.
You guys aren’t *that* young are you?
Damn. One of my favorite movies.
Didn’t realize it.
Non-peer reviewed Chinese study says type A blood patients have higher mortality risk, type O mortality risk is significantly lower. So there’s that.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-21/coronavirus-treatments-where-we-are-and-what-we-know
I was going to do a big write up on the drugs they are looking at for covid but this article is pretty excellent at breaking it down to simple English. If anyone has questions toss them here and I can find answer them or find some papers that do.
While I’d love to hear a book of bullshit about blah blah blah, your dad owes me a set of plans, so get back to work nukie
Sure what’s the planset you need.
Reposting this really good article from higher in the thread. Credit to Black Bandit for finding this gem.
http://theconversation.com/coronavirus-how-long-does-it-take-to-get-sick-how-infectious-is-it-will-you-always-have-a-fever-covid-19-basics-explained-132963
I posted above about the new covid19 test the FDA approved. Forgot to post the link, oops. The test takes 45 minutes.
https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/FDA-approves-new-test-that-can-detect-coronavirus-in-45-minutes-569004501.html
New general thread up since this one is 500 comments now.