Republicans trying to pass stimulus package tomorrow at 1 EST. Is it true that only people who filed taxes last year will receive a monthly check, should the measure pass?
No, dems want more money for welfare recipients and newly unemployed and less for businesses and corps. All of this is repackaged wealth redistribution with a shiny new name.
But before our Democrat posters lose their shit, I’m kind of for getting money into the hands of people that need it. But with the paid leave and 12 weeks FMLA they just passed there are going to be a massive amount of small businesses failing very soon. We are stuck with eating a shit sandwich or a shit pizza. Don’t count on getting a check unless you lose your job.
Damn almost shat my pants there, thanks for saving me! Will be interesting to see what happens. Either way Senate has wasted a whole lot of time playing politics while the people are hurting.
The dems just put in their virus stimulus bill. 1000 pages. I hope it’s not another “we have to pass it to know what’s in it” deal. I’m assuming its 100 pages of funding for the virus and 900 pages of pork bullshit.
I was curious about how long bills usually are. Turns out 1000 wasn’t that big even in 2014. Really makes you wonder about the efficiency of a system if you can’t get things done in less than 100,000 words.
I had a link for the text of the bill and lost it, but all the articles are highly partisan so I’m choosing not to post those. And the bill is actually 1100+ pages, apparently people are downloading it with different text sizes on their computers. All link when i find it.
3D printing should become a huge trend at the industrial level…not so much the home level as everyone predicted years ago. But this will be a wakeup call for corporations to have industrial printers so they don’t have to rely on China should supply chain break down.
Not going to get into the politics of it. People should have their basic needs taken care of, Creditors and banks need to be flexible. We probably need to put the economy into something like an enduced coma – fund essential services to keep them in operation, help businesses remain functional until things are figured out. Stock prices should be a very low priority. Many top companies had been pumping up their own stock with buy backs for years – to appease investors and help CEOs qualify for larger bonuses. Heck, you could say Wall Street already received their bailout with the tax cuts.
Anyway – campus is so quiet. The intramural track is getting a lot of use since gyms are closed. I’ve fashioned a “course” that also includes the steps in front of Gill, a lap around Reser hurdling the posts, and benches, the parking garage steps and ramps and the bleachers at Goss. Beats the hiking trails which are packed with people and it times out to about perfect podcast length.
Yep. Heart sank when I saw it, but I’ve been preparing for this since 2011 or ’12. Didn’t actually ever want to see it and hoped to be wrong…but knew it was coming. RIP, dollar.
Republicans: “We have found the socialists, and they are us!” Joking aside, I’ve been saying forever doesn’t matter which party is in power they all have to print. This has been true since Reagan broke the economy in ’84 and Greenspan bailed it out in ’87.
This is a cool map. https://covidactnow.org/
Shows the point of no return for each State, etc. People thought Washington was doing well? Estimated 116,000 deaths and that’s with 3 months of social distancing…big part of that is the hospitals become overwhelmed on the 18th. So we’re just going to see things start to pick up now.
I’m also hearing the New York health officials are starting a double blind study on Hydrocloroquine and z-pack cocktail to combat the virus tomorrow. I’ll post a link when I find it.
Hydrooroquine is fairly safe but the dosage is pretty tricky. More people could easily die or get serious complications than is really palatable. I’m down with the idea of using it as a first response for any positive test but they need to really alert people to not take anything above the recommended dose.
It 100% works by slowing down replication which makes people less infectious and let’s your immune system get to work. Basically flattening the curve on an individual level.
Going to have some huge effects on the future of vaccine development.
Hydrocloroquine is way safer then chloroquine. The Chinese and South Koreans were using both with no differences in effectiveness. Chloroquine has a toxicity to it, so does hydrocloroquine but the amount to toxicity is much higher. The French are running an initial dose of 400mg with 5 days of 200mg along with azithromycin.
For sure, hydro was invented to lessen the toxicity. Those doses seem pretty solid to me. Typical safe RA laoding dose is 400-600 daily and maintanence is 200-400 daily. French are well withingbproven safe daily doses.
Hahahahahahahahahahh!!! What if God was one of us on this blog? A stranger in the streets like the coaches and players who have seasons now cancelled from chinese bat butt wipe virus oh the irony of that! Who’s with me on this?
You might be on to something? Jack knew EVERYTHING about EVERTHING. So Jack is God. He is not a merciful God, otherwise the Beavs would have made the fricken Rose Bowl before the world ended. I’ve started drinking my most expensive booze just to be on the safe side.
Legitimate questions posed in this article. Interesting to me was that many that were infected showed no signs of sickness. None. Why didnt everyone become infected?
It’s an outlier, but one worth looking at. Pretty much ever prediction blog/study/article I’ve seen does not take it in to account. I think the last I looked it was anywhere from 15-18% never show signs of illness yet still shed virus -meaning they can pass the virus to others-. Those numbers are included in the mild symptoms bracket you see posted everywhere
I’m not sure if quick action and quarantining in their rooms helped or if it’s just not as contagious as once thought. Its definitely a puzzler especially when compared to what’s happening in italy.
I saw an article around a month or two ago about the CDC not letting an FDA administrator into the building for like 3 day. The FDA guy was there about the test kits ect. That’s as far as I read, and basically ignored it as a miscommunication. This seems to be a part of it.
I saw this. The prices went up 4000% so people can’t afford it, and now the people with malaria are fucked/dying.
Very dubious it would work in the first place. It’s just anecdotes. People are just flat out nuts both ways.
“Why should we be testing it in a test tube for a year and a half when we have thousands of people that are very sick, and we can use it on those people and maybe make them better?” Trump. He’s right, you know.
State U underscores my long-standing view of Trump: he has a desperate need for praise, self-absorbed, verbally challenged,, but he’s not always wrong. Peak China will be a durable legacy.
Yeah specially straight clorquine is really dangerous to over do the dose. Even doubling the recommended dose in a less than healthy person could kill you. Hydro is a bit safer but still the dosage needs to be paid attention to.
The original price was 23 cent a pill. an Israeli manufacturer just donated 10 million pills to the US. I posted the article in the last thread. Its literally in every pharmacy in America. The pills are 200mg. The cycling the french are having success with is 7 pills total of hydrocloroquine.
Also we have 2 manufacturers in the US. Your seeing a lot of bullshit spread because a vaccine is what is being pushed at the cost of billions of dollars over an extremely cheap and plentiful pill. Big pharma wants that blank check inside the panic instead of a metered response with a slowed infection rate
Of course a vaccine is better in the long run.
It’s not over the counter so I’m wondering how all of a sudden it’s not available. The only answer is doctors writing bogus scripts, someone is stealing it or that lady is full of shit.
Well maybe, I’m hoping dems and never trumpers aren’t rooting against this treatment. That would be some fucked up shit.
Also if your wondering why guys like Dr Fauci down play the treatment, it’s because they have to. Fuuci is a clinician and pretty much the authority on infectious diseases, with no clinical trial done in the US hes pretty much bound to down playing it. Which he should, until this testing which the FDA allowed, is done.
Oh and it’s not a cure, and I haven’t heard anybody of authority call it a cure. It’s a treatment much like tamaflu.
How’s everyone doing? I know I’m missing beaver sports. Even if it wasn’t going to be that great. I see ESPN choose oregon to win the fantasy wbb national championship, I wonder if those dopes will make fantasy championship rings and a trophy.
Keep thinking I might have fallen into weird alternate reality but it could be the lack of sleep. Miss the release and simple activity of watching some sports.
I keep instinctively checking my sports app on my phone as part of my morning news cycle. Sad to see everything listed as “Postponed.”
Video game sports with my son have been a nice reprieve. We’re playing through an NCAA basketball tournament on the old X360 College Hoops game to maintain some semblance of March normalcy.
Quite a few streaming services are opening the archives of old games, too. MLB has all games from the past two years for free and they’ve linked to quite a few classic games. It’s nice watching the Mariners play when they were actually good (though the 2001 team is an uncomfortable reminder of the ridiculous doping from that era). Watching Ichiro play never gets old.
I’m trying to keep some grace under pressure, but I woke last night with nightmares about the direction of the country (both Trump and the candidates like AOC in the offing) and also had nightmares about corona. So I guess it’s not working at the subconscious level. Sleep has been really shitty lately. I don’t think anyone is “winning” no matter what happens. Nobody wins when a government gains power and a currency loses value. On the plus side, nobody super close to me has corona yet, and we have food/housing, etc. So in that sense I feel grateful. Life would be pretty good if it weren’t for the currency/government problems. My birthday is in April, and what cushions the blow every year is MLB starting up. This year none of it. That sucks big time, but first world problem. Maybe I’ll go to the field instead and hit some balls 350ft down the line and film it for A@A.
My business is considered essential so I’m open and dealing with the public, my wife is an RN. Bad combo for avoiding this thing.
We all manage anxiety differently.
Work is keeping me busy, and in my free time I’m jamming my head with news. That doesn’t work for most people. Somehow it eases my worry.
Two teens at home. As much as they normally distance with social media, has completely flipped. They are now begging for social interaction. Very strange.
Heard something on NPR this morning. Essentially, everyone staying home will be better off than the dopes in essential services. We are basically ‘doomed’ to exposure. I suppose that we will then provide some herd immunity to you other fuckers. You’re welcome. :^)
I’m essential also….apparently. I’m still getting paid so that’s good. I feel pretty important carrying around a DHS letter stating I’m allowed through road blocks. Only to find out there are no road blocks and the sheriff doesn’t plan on enforcing this lock down. Just when I’m think I’m vitally important to my country (I’m not btw, I just hold gov contracts) I find out no one gives a shit. In reality truckers and railroad men are the real heroes right now along with heath care workers.
The silver premiums are insane. Highest in the 10 years I’ve followed the metals. Lowest prices I’m seeing on Eagles is $8 over spot or $22, with reputable sites like Apmex at $24 and huge shipping delays.
Annoying people in the metal markets claim spot price manipulation all the time (what they mean is 100 paper contracts per 1 physical oz, etc, which is true, but that’s not necessarily manipulation). I was always skeptical of that, because nobody complains of manipulation when metals spike up. But anyway, something weird is going on with this discrepancy. Gold is out of backwardation, silver slightly into backwardation. The 10 year at .81% doesn’t have any faith in anything. I wouldn’t believe any stock market rally, even if we get one on a stimulus deal — I’m selling into that. Only thing that will sell markets is finding the “e” in the p/e. April earnings all that matters at this point. That’s where you’ll see the truth, and pollution/traffic data, about economic activity, too. Not from our “leaders”. Personally ignoring all the “noise” from those dingbats other than to prepare for the fallout from their disastrous decisions.
I find it highly unlikely there will be any April earnings. The SEC already took advantage of the chaos to rollback audit requirements for SME’s. I’d imagine they would want to keep the bad news in check as long as possible.
Whenever it breaks the last high of 1650 there’s a tiny resistance at 1700 then none until 2000. Silver should become poor mans gold (and outperform…smaller market/more buyers) now that the final script has been written. Could explain the backwardation.
Did I read the FED is buying ETFs? Saw that headline and did a double take. Will have to dig in or maybe it’s bond etfs/click bait.
I believe they’re only buying ETF’s that include the other stuff they’re buying (e.g. investment-grade corporate bonds, even though a lot of what was considered investment-grade before is probably pretty sketchy now).
A head’s up during a slow period: If the spambot software gets you, or your comment doesn’t appear (spam/flag software), just write me. They should ask you to fill out a form to prove you’re not a robot with the former. With the latter issue, send me an email or write on here. No need to send nasty messages like “what the fuck!?!” — the spam software simply got you, likely because you’re on a roaming IP that triggered it. Since I don’t have time to check every message the software generally is a huge help, but it misses a few.
Cut the pork, cut the politics, cut the posturing, and cut the checks already. There are a lot of people who don’t have time for this shit, and I’m talking about both parties’ shit.
I got the opposite take. These people should be paid good money but forced to liquidate investments. Remove all possible and potential conflicts of interest.
Well these are high profile people that could take million dollar jobs as CEOs. And asking them to disinvest from everything is a lit to ask. That said out government could easily pay them a million a year and it’d be a drop in the bucket.
Oh I was just saying if you want to close off conflicts then our campaign finance needs closed too. Not in disagreement at all, I’m pro both those steps and ending lobbiests
I know you are joking but the is no real subjective way to measure performance, it would be an even bigger cluster with 45% of the people wanting all the pay to their team, 45% to the other team an 10% face palming.
Is it possible for a national referendum? Like being able to term limit these motherfuckers. Far to many politicians have never had real life experiences. They go straight to politics never having worked a retail or service job living pay check to pay check. Never been in a middle managment job getting shit on constantly. Or never really created a job in their life. Yet they sit in DC making 6 digits and anding pork to Bill’s that help their pals in the private sector, so they have a job on a board of directors when they finally retire or disgraced into resigning.
Problem is the members of congress that have been in office a long time are wildly popular in their home districts that have become dependent on their pork gathering skills. That cuts across party lines too.
Exactly. Many districts thrive on having a rep who gets on loads of committees and rises in caucauses.
The idea of increasing the representative count is thrown around to combat this pretty often. Last I checked each rep covers roughly 750,000 people. Just going off memory but originally it was closer to 85000 (please check if you have time). Arguement against that is usually that it would mean population centers have the majority of representation. That and adherence to ancient traditions of face to face hollering when they could do most of the work online.
Term limits have been a good idea for about 250 years.
I’m not sure the blue collar experience is actually valued. AoC should be a conservative darling, picked herself up by her bootstraps, worked as a bar tender to get through school, rose above class and station by merit. They don’t like her views so the most common insults are based on being a bar tender which ofc means she is stupid.
Democrats prefer a person with a phD over a blue collar person for their vaunted understanding and knowledge or broad issues. While ranting about rights for all they often criticize the intelligence of the uneducated.
This disrespect for the blue collar experience has created a vacuum where the rich, empty, greedy and nepotistic reign.
“AOC should be a conservative darling” but her views are completely antithetical to conservative principles. You’ve mischaracterized the conservative perception of her. What most people know about her is basically the Green New Deal. She doesn’t get stick for being a bartender as much as she does for representing the most liberal fringe of the Democratic party. I think a lot of Republicans would get behind someone with a blue collar background that represented their views.
Business schools have done studies that concluded management teams and boards with more diversity of background and perspective tend to be more successful. Congress shouldn’t be any different. The goal should be to have representation of the “blue collar experience” (whatever that means), and as many other different viewpoints as there are in America.
The question is: what constitutes “blue collar” credentials? Does someone like Tim Ryan, who grew up in a small, working class town, but is a lawyer and career politician, count?
Might want to fact check the “boot strap” story. She grew up in wealthy suburb outside the city where the median house is 900k.
Dad was a lowly, downtrodden architect that ran his own firm. Revisionist history on steroids. Wish I had such a hardscrabble upbringing.
@Beav in DE – That is a legitimate reason to not like her politics. That said she gets hit with Bimbo/Bartender constantly to discredit her stances by implying or directly calling her stupid. If you don’t think thats true then I have no idea what sources you use for news cause its constant on twitter, conservative networks and liberal networks outraged about it.
Absolutely agree with diverse teams and boards, intelligence groups work the same way because diverse background gets diverse solutions. If everyone has the same ideas and background you get group think. I would define blue collar as someone with less than a BS degree and works as a middle manager or lower in organizations. I would also qualify small business owners without education who built it from the bottom up as blue collar. A lawyer despite background is definitely not blue collar because they have not lived the experience just referenced it from someone else.
@BG Her Dad died her second year of college and it put so much financial strain on her family that her mom and grandma had to move in with family in Florida. She had to work through school to make it to graduation. What qualifies as picking yourself up? Thats a fair amount of adversity at a young age. Oh and she was her famlieds point person for the probate battle over her dads estate which sounds super fun for a 20 year old. I don’t have the time to look things up but 900k house can mean many things based on the area. It also could be 900k now or 900k 20 years ago when she was 10. Cost of living makes a huge impact on actual experience. If you don’t consider cost of living then its easy to tear down anyone as an elite villian or build someone up as a poor mans hero. Are my friends who are barely making it living in a $550k starter house in Bend rich and elite despite living pay check to pay check due to job hours being cut in one of their jobs? Starter house is a piece of shit 1200 sqft pile of junk that hey are fixing up. 550k in La Grande is a straight up mansion. I get your point but I think it could use more research and nuance.
Try and read AOC’s history on Wiki and consider her as a person and not as a democrat or republican. If you aren’t mildly impressed with her accomplishments then you have some crazy expectations for what is impressive.
Edit: got curious so I looked. Beeg, from what I can tell you are not even close with where she grew up.
Did you look at anything I posted? Daily mail is literally a tabloid in the uk man. Did you read the article you posted? It basically just backups what I already said. Here’s the smoking gun report. They just do record search investigations.
She grew up comfortably middle class in a rich suburb and presents herself as being from the projects. She went to an expensive private school, Boston University, and yet screams racism about everyone and everything. I’m a registered Democrat and she makes me want to projectile vomit when she opens her big yap. I can’t stand either party at this stage.
Daily Mail may be tabloid like, but they don’t filter stories based on PC bullshit. Besides they have good pictures on side of the stories :)
I have a source that says there’s an emerging supply chain problem in California. FedEx and UPS drivers aren’t reporting even though logistics are sequester proof jobs. Both companies are having to put more trailers on trains in the I-5 corridor (yes, that’s an ironic paradox) because they don’t have enough drivers to make the haul. Fortunately, those companies are mostly moving small packages rather than food and fuel, but still, not a good sign.
Can’t find much through the chaff. From a few mentions in stories it sounds like some drivers are skipping out cause they don’t think the safety precautions are adequate for themselves or customers.
I can’t verify with links on this either but concrete mixers are running out of materials and the suppliers are all shutdown. Construction could screech to a halt if it doesn’t get attention.
Those transfer drivers have the cream of the crop of work in the logistics chain. Our local center has one. And a back up. The problem is there aren’t very many of them. UPS and FedEx are still honoring GSRs, when that changes, you will know there is an issue.
No, that thing is crazy expensive, like several hundred dollars a unit expensive. Although maybe I should have asked about some barter. May have come in handy during the current situation.
@BeavGopher. I would like a sex doll. Is that wrong? I don’t know…sometimes you’re in the mood to do things a real girl won’t let you, no matter how much she likes you. I firmly believe sex dolls/robots are the future of relationships.
At the risk of making a lightweight post in the midst of all the serious (and good) ones above, I have to comment on another emerging problem. This staying at home business has inspired my wife to come up with far too many jobs for me!
Feel ya. I painted our living room, hall, and kitchen (brutal! So many things need masking and so many tight corners)…also building a new guitar and reading a new book. It’s all pretty enjoyable except the shitty backdrop. Hopefully robots take over soon so we can all pursue our passions.
One word of advice re: painting. If you haven’t already, bite the bullet and buy one really good paint brush (Purdy or equivalent) and take good care of it. If you have to cut in tight corners or other spots a nice brush makes the job so much easier with a much better result.
Cool. How expensive are those? I bought one that seemed pricey ($20 at HD, forget the brand) and the guy said it was their high end model and good for corners because it had a right angle or something. It worked pretty well (I’m done with the job). I used Sherwin Williams paint, which was really nice, too.
Portland ER wait time is starting to crank up. You would expect them to be lower than average with people on lockdown. Def not the case.
If you are in Portland and need to head to the ER this is always a handy tool to make your choice.
Edit: Just heard from a friend in NYC who had to take her grandma in (basically just dump her in the door unfortunately). They are overwhelmed in the ER’s and have stopped testing during the inital triage. Admitting into ICU based on symptoms and testing later.
I really hope it cuts down on replication in people to give them a fighting chance. For the unlucky few it’s an absolutely miserable and lonely way to pass.
“India just went on 100% lockdown.” Huge area, 2 billion people, generations of families living together, cesspool rivers, cattle on the street, corruptible authorities. Lockdown? Sure
Been listening to interviews in India all day. Government says total lockdown and state will provide everything…People are like…uh yeah right bro, hope my family doesnt die!
Hmm. Makes me think we should de-fund planned parenthood, ban abortions, de-regulate (environmental, banking/financial) and eliminate checks and balances in our government.
Could be a big deal for self identifying. I haven’t been able to smell poop or taste fruit since I had symptoms 2 weeks ago. Hope I don’t mix those two up without a functional snoooter.
The discussion of this being like the flu, here’s a difference…
The R0 transmission rate for the flu is something like 1.3 new infections from each infected person. This covid bug is something like 3 new infections per infected person.
Extrapolate 10 times and the first flu carrier is responsible for 14 new cases of flu. The covid carrier is responsible for 59,000 cases of covid.
Yeah, they say the one guy from South Korea that didn’t take the quarantine seriously led to 80% of their current cases. Sucks. And America isn’t anywhere near that disciplined.
Yep, you are exactly right with those numbers. I sell the life support equipment patients are put on when ventilators aren’t enough (Google ECMO). I asked one of the clinicians I call on why there wasn’t the same reaction to H1N1 in 2009 and they quoted the same spread statistics as OJ. We’re not all going to die but a lot of people will be infected. The key is not overwhelming our hospital system and this should be managed on a state by state basis.
Angry mentioned it in the last thread. The R0 and the asymptomatic/mild symptoms makes it crazy good at spreading. Not friendly math happening in the world atm.
Yeah the mild symptoms and limited testing along with the widespread geographical locations of the known positives is what leads me to believe 5-10% of Americans already have this. If my estimate is correct this is way less deadly than believed and will also pass quicker than believed.
Hey F_nemac, My “spring break” vacation from work started this week, so I’m trying my best to devote my time to family activities and stuff around the house. Been checking in here occasionally but haven’t had much to say.
Parents are both in different stages of recovering from pneumonia. They’ll be fine, will just take some time. My illness, whatever it was, lasted most of a week but I feel pretty much back to normal other than persistent sniffles for the last few days. No biggie.
Hopefully I’m not carrying anything because, unfortunately, i’m the grocery runner in the family. Delivery and pickup just isn’t available, despite living within the Portland city limits. Grocery stores are the last place where I want to spend my time lately, but I had to hit no less than 6 stores today to finally find some freaking flour. Flour is the new TP.
I have a routine in the stores. Keys and phone and wallet remain off limits in my jacket pocket. I keep my debit card separate for quick access. Also keep a ziplock in my back pocket with some homemade sanitizer wiper(paper towels in bleach water) that i can use to wipe down the cart, hands, etc.
I go in the early afternoon when the stores are dead. In and out in minimal time. Barely cross paths with anybody and most people keep their distance anyway.
Since I havent been at work this week, I havent heard any updates on how the facilities are handling the ramped up number of patients. Hopefully I won’t be walking into a buzzsaw when this week off ends.
My last bit of advice, get some ColdEeze zinc lozenges. They’re money if you start to get a tickle in your throat, and there’s some thought that zinc can limit replication of certain viruses. Also, keep up on your multi vitamins. Just to help ensure your immune system has what it needs to do it’s job. And eat well.
I think some of the attention Hydroxy chloroquine has been getting lately isn’t being mentioned in conjunction with zinc, where the HC seems to be allowing zinc to be more effective for patients than just zinc alone. But from what I understand, it’s not the HC by itself that is helping shorten illness durations.
Also, take that all with a grain of salt. I’m no MD. Just from my observations this week and how I coped with my illness with more ease than I was expecting.
I cant watch the news anymore. Donald Trump is a fucking terrible leader. I wish Governor Cuomo was running against him in this election. Been really impressed with that dude.
Great to hear that everyone in your crowd seems to be recovering.
Good suggestions about shopping. Using a credit/debit card, especially when you are the one inserting the plastic into a reader cuts down on contact with the clerk AND any cash change.
I do the same thing with ziplock bag containing sanitizer wipes.
Multi vitamins, zinc, eating well all good stuff; I’ve eaten more oranges in the last weeks than usual. Nice they have their own “packaging”.
About that phone, I read they need to be cleaned as often as you wash your hands; can’t hurt.
Yes I know, TABLOID. I kept thinking “who do I know that was big into Vitamin C for a cure all?” Holy shit ex-beav and Nobel prize winner Linus Pauling. Although the article down plays the hydrocloroquine which is what the Vitamin C is being used with.
Hahaha! There’s loads of research to back up boosting the immune system with supplements during an infection. The only real downside is if you over do something dangerous (usually metals) or pump up the immune system when you are at risk with auto immune disorders or a cytokine storm. Our bodies are pretty smart so if you over indulge the kidneys just filter it out and give you expensive pee.
Cheap safety and something basically anyone can do to get some control and protection.
Sean Mannion signs again with the Vikings. http://www.twincities.com › 2020/03/18 › sean-mannion-to-return-as-the-vi…
6 days ago – Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sean Mannion (4) pass the ball against Chicago in the third quarter of an NFL game at U.S. Bank Stadium in …
Was looking to see if Brandin Cooks had signed somewhere new and found this article. An interesting read about examples of his character, his pro production, and value (he netted a first found pick each time he was traded).
AOC is a joke; she is a classic example of educated beyond her intelligence (not much there at all). A classic example of a typical Dem politician – divide the county. She’s called Trump a racist and anti immigrant just like the rest of the nut job dems.
“Democrats prefer a person with a phD over a blue collar person for their vaunted understanding and knowledge or broad issues.” Where do I start with this one. How about a Chesty Puller quote: “Not All Brains Lie in Brass.” Our Academia has been infiltrated by communists/socialists and further destroyed by Federal Govt. Grants. The credentials have been cheapened incredibly.
Anyone see Joe Biden lately? That’s what the Dem’s came up with in four years? The party thinks their voters are stupid, because I guarantee that’s not who would have came out in front were your Democrat primary votes counted.
I dunno, what’s a weird statement. Like something is missing. Who did the interview? Maybe watching the whole thing could put it into perspective, but then again maybe not.
I haven’t been able to find the full interview. This link has a 30 second blurb that didn’t give me solace. I don’t recognize the interviewer as I don’t follow major networks closely, it’s fox. Had some nice nightmares about it.
Sounds like now he’s essentially deflecting the blame for supply shortages onto the states. Saying Cuomo had the opportunity to order them 2 years ago. That’s an interesting statement. So 2 years ago the Feds would have gladly supplied all the states with sufficient supplies for a pandemic, but not now, they missed their chance.
Can the down voters please explain why I’m over reacting instead of.just anonymously dissapproving? I’m actually very scared by this kind of posturing and strategy so maybe your zen mojo could help? I really am not doing a gotcha shit post, I’m scared.
Trump’s handling of this is great, even if the liberal crybullies don’t like the way he talks. He has engaged the private sector to produce the ventilators, just as he did the test kits after the Obama holdover cronies at the CDC fucked the initial testing up and tried to cover it up. You are scared because you don’t believe in the immense strength of the USA private sector when the claws of communist bureaucrats are pulled out of them. We bombed the Germans out of existence with our production, we just flooded the market with test kits (now it’s the backlog of testing to solve) and the ventilators are coming online. Cuomo, Inslee, and Newsome all have stated Trump is doing a good job.
Thanks for.the response. I’m actually not scared by that. I am scared by the words he is using and their implication. Be nice to me or don’t get help is what scares me.
That’s not what he said. It’s what the media told you he said. I’m asking all of our friends here, Dem Repub whatever, to watch Trump directly or read his twitter directly without the filter. I don’t expect you to like it all, but you may be surprised at how you interpret things without the filter. China has financial stake in our companies…they’ve used the funds from the sellout of our manufacturing to influence and divide us through the media, our larger private corps, our institutions, our politicians.
Dianne Feinstein’s driver was a Chinese spy. For 20 years. Brilliant really, you can have a phone conversation in the back of the car of sensitive material, and it get’s “overheard.” Plausible deniability. She was chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee! How was he allowed to walk right out of the country after this was revealed?
Yeah I do read his Twitter most days and I try to listen to his actual interviews not just clips and hot takes. I don’t read much analysis from pundits of any party anymore. I prefer direct sourcing and research journals.
That said his direct commentary doesn’t give me any peace.
Regarding his Twitter, press conferences, interviews…Can we all agree, he is not a great communicator?
The fact that things regularly have to be walked back, massaged, re-released, etc, does not invoke a sense that he knows what he is doing.Even when he is right.
Great, leave it to the states to solve supply shortages independently. Then watch as a bidding war between the states takes place. I thought he claimed to be president of the United States, all of them.
For some reason can’t reply to your comment above regarding the test kits. I’m pleading with you and everyone else to watch the dang daily briefings without the media filter! Please! How does this sound: straight from Dr. Deborah Birx “220,000 test in last 8 days. (That is what SK) did in 8 weeks.” We (USA) are leading from the front. With all the countries that had this crisis before us, how do we already have the most accurate test kits? (American Exceptionalism) They announced self test kits yesterday, in what 2 weeks? Trump is cutting all the red tape with our bureaucrat agencies, the acceleration on the production is impressive, the backlog is now at the analysis of the test samples themselves. Hampered by China not being helpful and the CDC being caught flat footed – blame who you want there.
One thing nobody is mentioning – one of the biggest silent moves by the Trump Admin – waiving permits and hours on the trucking industry. If the shelves were completely empty at the stores right now think of the additional panic and rioting they country would be in. Our Truckers are holding us together, and Trump has cut them loose! (MORON Democrat Governor from Penn State deserves mention here as he shut down the REST STOPS on the turnpikes in the middle of all this. But he has a PhD with a broad depth of knowledge right? It’s about logistics!)
Hmm, hadn’t heard about relaxation of DOT regulations. Frankly not sure how I feel about a bunch of long haul drivers on the road for long periods of time. Had a friend that hauled cattle, I went on ride alongs with him, not keeping accurate logbook and that job is exhausting. BUT, desperate times call for desperate measures. AND there are a hell of a lot fewer people on the roads.
Frankly it doesn’t sound like enough in a metro area. Celebrities etc shouldn’t be getting tests ahead of healthcare providers. And the actual tests taking days is another issue.
If the government had taken this seriously when China was melting down, the tests and test facilities may have been in place, proactively.
There are a couple of private testing facilities doing covid tests now. I’m assuming that’s were celebrities are getting it done.
And read the article that I posted and commented that someone should get their ass kicked above. It puts the testing situation into perspective. The CDC fumbled it out of the endzone, then lied about it.
Some of those supply shortages are the direct result of the Affordable Care Act. In the nearly 1000 pages of law it put restrictions on PPE manufacturers to only allow the top 10% of their product be allocated for use in hospitals. Shockingly that doesn’t include VA hospitals. N95 masks have a .0001 failure rate if used properly but out of the 300,000 that one manufacturer can make per month only 30000 can be legally sold to hospitals. The rest are sold to private sector and industry at a reduced cost because there isn’t much of a demand outside health care.
Trump cut that red tape 2 weeks ago, now those masks should be moving into the system but were almost to late unless those company’s double production. That’s a tall order with what is going on now.
And I wish people would stop taking about ventilators. It’s the last resort with this virus, you really, really don’t want to be put on one. Treatments and a vaccine are our only hope.
I think it’s weird that people constantly blame a compromise bill for being flawed. It’s was made by both parties and passed by both parties. Ofc it isn’t a complete solution because they took a full theory and then negotiated it into a Frankenstein monster.
Personally without it I would probably b dead by 35 and would have been electric wheel chair bound for the last 5 years so I like it.
Personally I think it was too much, too fast. I have no problem with getting people on insurance. But when the house leader comes out and say they have to pass it to see what’s in it, I have a problem. Much like this stimulus bill and the previous stimulus, I think line item voting would be more effective. Sure it would take for ever, but at least the American people can see what’s going on and it could possibly cut down on these massive pork producers when a light is shown on it. I would think it would cause enough of a headache that they would cut this shit out.
Yet they still didn’t allow anyone in the public or media to see the bill before they passed it. And “the fog of controversy” means nothing when you say one thing then do another. Remember when they said the affordable care act would cut the deficit? Where it would lower heath care costs? Where you’d see only a 5% raise in your health care costs? I guess those quotes were taken out of context too, huh?
I won’t defend Trump but I can help explain the disconnect. People, especially, the Press, continue to “read” what he says literally, when often he is just talking out loud. I’m not saying that isn’t a problem, but he’s a classic example of following what someone does rather than what someone says. For example, he has consistently followed the advice of Fauci and Birks, even if grumbles in public about doing something different.
Thanks for the considered response Wanna. Kiss the ring or don’t get help just reeks of Kings and dictators to me. Freaks me out that people in regions may suffer more If his ego is t appeased.
The federal government needs to fix all the problems of the states but Trump is also a dictator. I see these things as conflicting views. I think he is doing a great job helping the states, but making sure the Governors (sometimes reminding them) that they need to maintain autonomy, they are directly in charge of their situation. They can make the best decisions because they are on the front lines, NOT the federal Government. Small Unit Leadership.
Just the China owned media twisting words again. I mean that seriously . Dems and Media are owned by China. Dem. governors are now banning the off label prescription of Hydroxychlorquine (What’s the harm!?). Pelosi waltzed back in from her fucking vacation to poison pill the first bit of relief after it was negotiated in good faith with BOTH PARTIES in the Senate. And they collectively (Majority Dems, Many RINOS) have sold our manufacturing, natural resources, and political power out the CHINA the last 30 years. They are delaying the votes and treatment to extend the suffering with either A. the disease or B. the economic hardship. They can’t have the economy recovering before November or they are doomed (they are going to get crushed anyway as moderates are waking up to the fact they are truly enemies of America and Americans: TRAITORS)
Hey atleast they are adding to the conversation and answering the questions. Just because you don’t agree doesn’t mean you have to insult them. Just remember, your stances may be as crazy to them as theirs are to you. Show some basic respect and then you can share ideas.
Pettibonehead – I really want to hear your thoughts on this. If it’s not the fact they are traitors beholden to China there must be a reasonable explanation for the following:
1. Why is a Democrat Governor banning use of Hydroxychloroquine in fighting COVID 19?
2. Why would Pelosi place pork like millions for the Kennedy arts and crafts center, Airline emissions etc. international disaster assistance (politicians money laundering fund) in the emergency bill when AMERICANS and AMERICAN SMALL BUSINESSES are hurting NOW?
3. Why did the DNC lackies call Trump a xenophobe/racist/idiot for closing down travel from China January 31? (He also declared a US public health state of emergency the same day)
To be clear I’m not saying fellow everyday citizens are beholden to China, most of the ones I know love this country. The DNC, much of our media, larger private companies, and public universities have been bought ought by China. Break the conditioning. or Change My Mind…happy to hear it out.
“Anyone see Joe Biden lately? That’s what the Dem’s came up with in four years?” Agree. The Democrat LLC deciders set participation rules which were a mockery and discouraged newcomers for any and all offices. The core rot is campaign finance reform but, like the weather, everyone talks about it yet nobody does anything.
watch for Cuomo to be added to ticket. Indeed, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that Cuomo REPLACES Biden at the head of the ticket. You saw it here first.
Wannabeav I’m calling H.R.C to be on the ticket in the same maneuver you note. Smart move for them would be Cuomo, but I don’t yet believe the power of the Clinton Cartel is yet broken.
I’ll grab some links later for sure. I always use Japan as my ‘oh shit” barometer for diseases. They have insane hygene standards (some airports have sanitizer stations every 25m), amazing social adhearence/compliance/cooperation, and they take external threats very seriously. Couple that with high tech and manufacturing savvy it’s a nearly perfect place for dealing with a disease outbreak. I wouldn’t want to live there but sure looks nice atm.
So I looked into it and basically everyone is confused. It seems like they may be doing better just do to geographic isolation butttt…kinda looks like they just aren’t testing or bothering to do much. Many experts expect an explosion there anytime.
Mostly person to person, but I have some big clients like Intel. Every Christmas they order a lot. A few other big names, too. I do it as a side hobby so I don’t put a lot of energy into it other than word of mouth and wherever that goes. It’s just a fun thing for me that results in some side $. Kind of like AB.
I’ll have to look, but I don’t think so.
I could always make more (usually do around baseball season so no big deal to me – I’d be making it soon anyway). Just let me know what you’d want.
I was thinking the other day that what this country needs is the Carroll Shelby of respirator manufacturing; and indeed, I saw somewhere (maybe Nuke or OOBie can find a link) that Ford has adapted the blower for its F-150 cabs for use in respirators. The single best line in Ford v. Ferrari is when Henry Ford, Jr. asked Shelby, rhetorically: “Do you think it was FDR who beat Hitler?”
“The PAPRs that Ford is building, for instance, will use off-the-shelf components from the automaker’s F-150 truck’s cooled seating, as well as 3M’s existing HEPA filters. These respirators could potentially offer significant advantages in use compared to N95s, since they are battery-powered and can filter airborne virus particles for up to eight hours on a single, swappable standard power tool battery pack worn at the waist.”
with the rig you have, BeeG, you don’t need to worry. In fact, if things get crazy, I’m expecting you to head to the Northwest Territories and get away from it all. You’re set. I should never have sold that yacht. (my mind is full of the imagery from CSN’s “Wooden Ships”
Because nobody actually races cars that are made in a factory. I remember watching Nascar with my dad in the 70s and the cars on the track were cars you could go buy off the lot. Had to build 500 of the body and had to be a factory available motor/trans/rear diff.
How can you talk shit about a tube chassis with custom built tin and a 100% aftermarket engine?
PASTING AGAIN BECAUSE I AM STILL GETTING NASTY MESSAGES.
A head’s up during a slow period: If the spambot software gets you, or your comment doesn’t appear (spam/flag software), just write me. They should ask you to fill out a form to prove you’re not a robot with the former. With the latter issue, send me an email or write on here. No need to send nasty messages like “what the fuck!?!” — the spam software simply got you, likely because you’re on a roaming IP that triggered it. Since I don’t have time to check every message the software generally is a huge help, but it misses a few.
thanks again, Angry, for keeping this site going. These few weeks/months may be this site’s finest hour. “We shall never surrender,” someone once said.
Still have it. Bad habit of saving everything, but good for laughs.
Ab
My email below was obviously not intended for you.
Sent from my iPhone
On Jul 8, 2017, at 2:58 PM, Barnes, Scott wrote:
Um for the 3rd time we discussed 3:45 that makes us 15 to 20 min late . It starts at 5pm and takes 1:30 to get there.
Getting more objective information out on Luke Heimlich was a high point.
Responding to high quality coaching and achievements of WBB is another example. Drawing attention to women’s college sports is not something that normally occurs.
I think the comments posted here recently affirm the thoughtful character of the site, its not something new.
Simple, because it pays people more to stay at home then work. GOP or otherwise this is a big error that must be corrected. And to have the lack of view to say that the GOP “is holding things up” is incredible. The Senate worked DNC/RNC together to come up with a bill, and Nancy Pelosi came back and tanked it with poison pills – all planned. All delaying need to hurting Americans and American small business.
They haven’t been able to take down the President, now we all get the heel of the DNC boot when our luck is down.
any child being born is memorable, but in this case? The most affecting moment in the movie 1917 was when the British soldier comes upon this young woman with a baby, who isn’t its mother. If that scene doesn’t get you, nothing will.
In academic news, OSU along with every other college in Oregon is making standardize testing results optional to submit in 2021. Should destress a lot of students.
I would agree they aren’t a strong predictor of success. Just for fun though, I would love to see students take the wonderlic test.
Academic success is determined by three things, effort, talent and some luck. A test score doesn’t show all three of these things.
I remember talking to the admissions officer once and he didn’t talk about test scores once. It was more of the overall picture, grades in high school, what high school you went to, where you ranked grade wise in that school, activities, etc. Those were better predictors of students who graduated college than test scores.
by the way, remember the guy one of our contributors found late last week who suggested things had peaked in the state of Washington? Go to the UW virology dashboard. The peak increase was on March 20th. I think part of the problem we’re having in this country is the lack of numeracy (the mathematical equivalent of literacy). Everyone is looking at the vertical bar graph, which shows greater cumulative numbers of infections but the key metric is the horizontal graph plot that shows the daily addition over time. that’s where the vaunted curve shows up.
Also, the Washington State Hospital Association has ramped down the panic level. Wish I could provide a link, but that’s not in my wheelhouse (except when I’m piloting a yacht, of course).
not at all. check the site. test volume continues to grow but the rate of case growth plugs along right at the same rate. About 100 a day on average. but nothing like the high percentage increase you are seeing in NY. You can’t look at the chart and conclude anything but that the curve is bending in Washington.
Okay, WB. There are many other conclusions, but if that’s what you want to believe go for it.
You still think Smith made the right call on 4th down, after all. ;)
nailed it wannabeav on the daily case rate. I find it extremely suspect that the Johns Hopkins University map and others are not charting this, amount of patients in hospitals, only the cumulative amount of cases detected and deaths.
You guys have a vested interest in Washington’s numbers being in decline. What is it?
Just go outside and see how it treats you if that’s what you believe. But that’s not what the R0 suggests. What the WA numbers suggests is tests ran out, people misdiagnosed/not diagnosed, not going into the hospital period due to cost and people there. This makes sense since the hospitals became overwhelmed right around then.
We want to see this virus die out and people live? If our lockdown is maybe working? Hope? To see if the backlog of test kits has hit yet? To try to develop an accurate percentage of death rate figures? There is a fog when situations change this rapidly. I have in interest in knowing what the hell is happening by gathering as much information as possible, filtering, and deciding for myself.
Do you have a vested interest in it going up? What kind of question is that?
Angry, the R0 IS NOT YET KNOWN; we don’t know how many people have been infected because we haven’t tested EVERYBODY. It could be a higher or lower number than we think. The contact rate is an important part of the R0. I’d love to know if our lock down is working/is not working. Maybe another state or comparative city is showing better results. We can use this data.
The last few years you’ve really taken a holier than thou turn man.
What the fuck are you talking about? We are all trying to get the clearest picture of what is going on with this thing and the effectiveness of the preventative measures that are being taken. Daily case rate is an extremely meaningful stat that is not being represented. Sorry Dad am I not supposed to ask for more data?
Daily case rate is one of many metrics, and it could be down for a ton of reasons, and I just gave three or four out of infinite. The R0 doesn’t support it. So unless Washington is somehow special (which it could be, but you’d have to explain why), it’s wrong. Again, go outside. See how long before you get it.
the state of Washington is important because that’s where the domestic outbreak happened. It’s not just another state in this instance. It could be a leading indicator.
Folks on this site would be well advised to read the works of Edwin Tufte on the graphic display of quantitative information. Maybe Nuke or OOB can link to it. Numbers don’t lie, but they way they are displayed can convey a lie. The JHU site’s cumulative total doesn’t tell us anything we didn’t know in mid-February.
You guys still believe China has 81,000 cases, too? Lol.
They’ve been stuck on that for like 3 weeks! The great communist government solved everything.
not at all. The numbers in China are likely significant higher, but you’re not suggesting that because the CCP lied that the experience in Washington is bogus, are you? I wish someone could find the story about the state hospital association. No one is relaxing but the situation is still manageable, which is all that Fauci/Birks have been trying to get us to: keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed.
No my point is people believe what they want to and what governments tell them. There are people who think China locked down and stopped it at 81,000 cases. There really are people who believe that, many of them in China. But even here.
It’s more likely that Washington is overwhelmed and can’t test everyone, people can’t afford to be tested, people are misdiagnosed, people lack insurance that covers tests, etc than it is the rate of growth has declined. I know people who were sent home because they didn’t qualify for intensive care. No test. Even NiceBeav had no test, right? He had something. What was it? On Reddit people rely stories of being denied tests despite symptoms. This is happening in droves. So all numbers are off. Big time. I don’t blame Washington; it’s the nature of something spreading faster than you have workers/tests/resources. But the numbers are certainly wrong.
I recommend watching some Chris Martensen. He has a Phd in virology, and digs into the math behind the rate of growth. His forum has all kinds of stories about shenanigans in the health care system distorting the numbers, too. People relying stories. Many are in Washington so you might want to read that.
I’d like the virus to be gone just like you guys, fwiw.
Angry: I’m not denying we have a big problem, or that there have been mis-steps, certainly with testing. And I concur, there are a lot more people with the virus, the greater number of them asymptomatic (an issue unto itself), than we currently know about. And to minimize risk, I don’t go out very much.
But the key metric isn’t the spread of infection, it is the RATE of hospitalization. Hell, even Cuomo in today’s press conference pointed out that the rate of hospitalization has dropped from Sunday to Monday, Monday to Tuesday, Tuesday to Wednesday. Are there more people hospitalized from day to day?–absolutely, but it’s not arithmetic growth that is the existential threat, it’s exponential growth we need to worry about. The great policy consideration, and the one that will ultimately inform Trump’s decision on when to “start the economy,” is whether the inevitable arithmetic accretion overwhelms the nation’s hospital systems. This is where Fauci’s flattening of the curve comes in. and one last time, the hospitals in Washington are assuredly under stress, but they’re not overwhelmed. Not today anyway. As I said in the earlier thread, it is worth noting that Washington’s governor (the first state with a sizable outbreak) went to the sequester after a dozen other states did. I believe he did because state executives are being driven by a zealous press which keeps asking “why aren’t you doing what Governor xyz did?” No one wants that political exposure.
What does open borders have to do with this? Are you dumb enough to believe Americans don’t go to China for business/leisure and wouldn’t bring this back? And let me guess, you have Clinton Derangement Syndrome. “But but burt da Clintons lieeeed eerrr derp.” When we had 15 cases, your boy said it would disappear like a miracle. 65,000 cases and 1,000 deaths later you’re still drinking the kool-aid. Derp derp derp but da Clintons and da Obamas caused it, ya butthurt sissies! *reloads zerohedge*
How’s that for a response?
Anyway, our Country has awful demographics/birth rates due to increased poverty/FED inflation. Unaffordable housing = no family formation. The only way to get talent into this Country is via immigration.
Are you serious? Thousands of individuals pouring over a border who are untested during a pandemic? This would accelerate to get to the better US healthcare and destroy the contact rate in the borders of the country? Your misdirect to travel from China, which was stopped by Trump before anyone else was on board, January 31. He declared a US PUBLIC HEALTH STATE OF EMERGENCY at the same time. You drink the media cool aide and turnaround and defend the Clintons, who have criminal behavior everywhere. Need examples?
-Donations to Clinton Global Initiative plummeted after she lost the election – cash for influence
-Private server in her basement. Doesn’t matter what the emails contained. Classified. Not legal. You and I go to jail. Any reasonable person can deduce she was selling server access to belligerents and if caught, could claim she was hacked and was a victim.
-Did not allow quick react teams to go in and save the teams in Benghazi, lied to Americans about how it started(we can be anywhere in the world in hours)
-Bill selling missile tech to China
-Bill Clinton is a rapist. Hillary tried to destroy everyone that came out to say something.
-Chief Counsel of the House Judiciary Committee Jerry Zeifman on Hillary’s performance during Watergate “She was a liar. She was an unethical, dishonest lawyer. She conspired to violate the Constitution, the rules of the House, the rules of the committee and the rules of confidentiality.” Nothing has changed with this politician.
-I’m done even thinking about the loser Obama, as Trump has undone much of the damage of his 8 years in less than 4.
Our countries birth rate is negative, when removing immigration, because that is what happens in developed countries. It’s a really cool statistic, because it means if we can get the rest of the world on board, we can be more sustainable as a world population.
Yes angry. I am so dumb I can’t comprehend that we all travel around the world. This is your leadership naivete showing through in thinking that you are so smart talking down to a bunch of plebes. While I could have been more specific regarding the physical border, especially the one to our South, a controlled border is good for every country for a variety of reasons, pandemic or otherwise. We were able effectively to stop travel from China because we have a defined entry control point with ports and airports.
Being a criminal politician is a ok – Angry. Trump said it’s a hoax! (left wing Snopes doesn’t even back that one up) **Refresh CNN, MSDNC, other media with Chinese stake in ownership** Spit out more Chinese propoganda. Make fun of Trump.
But the best of all…willing to defend the Clintons. Thanks for clearing that up man.
I never said it was okay. I mentioned like 100x here I voted Trump. Much of it due to annoying SJWs, but also he said stocks were a huge bubble (correct, then he blew it up more) and was critical of the FED. I regret it. I was very wrong.
But at least I’m also not obsessed with a guy was was President 20 years ago and his wife.
You literally brought up the Clinton’s in this thread Angry. And I just gave you a starting list of why there are still people pissed about them; rightfully so. We should never be ok with a miscarriage of justice. And Hillary is still causing damage to this country behind the scenes. Cut the bullshit misdirection.
She was fucking Secretary of State for 4 years during the previous administration. Don’t paint it like she’s just some harmless old lady that falls down a lot. She’s an influence peddling piece of shit.
She’s a liar and piece of shit whom I didn’t vote for. Trump is a bigger liar and bigger piece of shit whom I did vote for. Joke is on me. If I’m talking about these fuckers in day to day life 20 years from now somebody kill me. You have permission.
Didn’t see your last sentence. Split apart illegal and legal immigration, they are two different things. We can really bring some great people here through legal immigration, and that is something Trump has stated many times and conservative support. Regarding illegal immigration, I think what you meant was the only way to get a Democrat Welfare Voting Block into this county (DNC support) and cheap illegal labor for big corporations, many of them big AG Firms (RINO support) is through illegal immigration. The cheap illegal labor are then exploited in their communities by the drug cartels, who also LOVE the open border, as the cartels know they have nobody to go to. To add insult to injury, they get Fed/local benefits (they make $0 on paper) and the cash paid for their wages go straight to their home country. Illegal immigration is modern human trafficking, and stopping it is an act of love for both our countryman, and THEM.
Though I noted my support above for LEGAL immigration, it’s really sad if you think that’s the only way to get good talent in this country. If that’s what you actually believe, how do you think we should take action in our community to improve education and the next generation so we have talent here too? (we have a lot of talent still, although it’s been dampened down by many bad actors in our public education system).
Angry- Some immigration perhaps. But fixing our failing education system would be a good place to start. Develop our own talent as it were. As for borders being open we are seeing illnesses being brought in that are now rare in our country. Measles, mumps, and TB are now common in many of the illegals stopped at the border. And we don’t catch them all so you know that they are being spread in the country. There were 529 cases of TB in LA county in 2018. The large majority of people infected were either Asian or Mexican.
publichealth.lacounty.gov/tb/docs/TB_Overview-FactSheet2018.pdf
I can appreciate that man. I think there’s alot we probably disagree on, but you seem to be the only one hearing it out and coming up with some decent questions or responses too. I’m trying to get close to that standard.
It’s part of my dogma and life idealogy. I’m an environmenal humanist which basically means I think the point of living is to improve the experience of as many people as possible to progress society as a whole. The environmental part just means that I think we should be stewards of the earth. Pretty much aligns to basic religious dogmas without a higher power.
I don’t see how debunking, shit posting, attacking or insulting helps anyone. I believe in discourse (not debate) where people share ideas, wisdom and knowledge to increase all interestes parties world view.
Doesn’t work for everyone but I find a lot of peace and companionship in it.
That is the only logical progression in context to a pandemic. I guess the closest case studies for if it’s a good idea for pandemics would be North Korea. I can’t think of another good large population to look at though.
Does anyone care to justify why $25 million for the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, D.C. belongs in the coronavirus Stimulus Bill?
That’s a great one OOB. I have some good ones that haven’t been answered from a post above. I’ll wait:
1. Why is a Democrat Governor (Nevada) banning use of Hydroxychloroquine in fighting COVID 19?
2. Why would Pelosi place pork like millions for the Kennedy arts and crafts center, Airline emissions etc. international disaster assistance (politicians money laundering fund) in the emergency bill when AMERICANS and AMERICAN SMALL BUSINESSES are hurting NOW?
3. Why did the DNC lackies call Trump a xenophobe/racist/idiot for closing down travel from China January 31? (He also declared a US public health state of emergency the same day).
1) He didn’t. It’s an anti hording measure to make sure it’s only used in hospitals. It’s limited to in patient treatment if the diagnosis is covid-19. This prevents crooked doctors from selling scripts to the rich or desperate. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/us/malaria-drugs-nevada-trnd/index.html
2) Kennedy center was in the original Senate Bill and not pushed or added by anyone in the DNC. Can’t find anything on emissions so maybe a citation, international is pretty obvious – help other countries. Trump offered North Korea help before any states so idk what the problem is for a Trumpian ideology, Either way I can’t find anything about it so maybe a citation would help.
3) Probably cause he insists on calling it The Chinese virus which increases xenophobia/racism and maybe they think he’s stupid. It seems like you are connecting character assessments/opinions to policy which can definitely affect bias but is a false equivalency.
You scared white kids are the only ones that give a fuck about this supposed Chinese racism/xenophobia/hate crime. My Chinese born brother in law hasn’t seen or heard a bit of this rampant wave of terror.
In fact, he may be the first person I heard call it the Kung Flu. Fucking xenophobic racists.
Uh…hate crime against Asians has risen with covid. Do you have a mode besides attack? It’s pretty unpleasant.
Knowing one person in a demographic and their experience with an issue doesn’t mean you know everyones. I have a Chinese friend in Vancouver that got assaulted and called covid chink last week in Vancouver. I guess you might care if it happened to your brother in law…or maybe not.
Maybe you should care more about people being hurt by unproductive dip shittery and criminal activity based. What does defending that kind of.behavior gain you?
I’m guessing your friend is a millennial pussy. My brother in law would have dropped that motherfucker right where he stood and that would have been the end of it. No participation trophy for anyone and the last time some random fuck would run his suck to the yellow man.
It’s factually accurate to call it the Chinese virus. To my knowledge, the few (sad, but few) cases of violence against Asians were all a few weeks ago when this was just an Asian problem that we didn’t want washing up on our shores.
That said, going out of your way to call it Chinese smells a bit like war posturing to me, which really bothers me. I’m no China lover, but Trump goes out of his way to poke them in the eye way too much. Him and Mike “Let’s Just Kill Everyone” Pompeo together scare me.
the most common abuse is doctors writing prescriptions for themselves and/or families. Now, what does tell you about the potential efficacy of those drugs?
Not sure if it says much more than anything else. Doctors are just as human as the rest and don’t want to die or have their family hurt. It just comes down to proving efficacy which we don’t have. For some people anecdotal is enough to self medicate but it should never be true for a regulator or state to give sweeping guidance without evidence.
At times like this I wouldn’t be opposed to all healthcare workers were on something that mitigates replication of the virus but I don’t want it to be a placebo. Perhaps they could kill two birds by letting healthcare workers volunteer to take them to do efficacy studies.
I’m not concerned about the Kennedy center funding. given the size of that bill it’s almost a token amount. What concerned me more was shunting election “reform” into the bill, like vote harvesting, which rather than being enabled should be criminalized.
I think this is a decent rundown. Wanna please correct me if this isn’t what you meant. Make sure to read the full article cause it does go into the angles for each party.
I would be happy if the nation went full vote by mail following the Oregon model. It’s pretty much the gold standard for many voting rights and anti fraud watch dog groups.
It’s always important to do research and understand a situation before making assumptions. Very human to jump to conclusions that support our world view though. We are bianary animals that love to simplify when the truth is almost always complicated and in shades of grey.
Suddenly justified? Hell no!
Funding for The Center should have been debated on its own merits; regardless of the make up of its board.
I am, however, glad Melania isn’t on the board for the Public Broadcasting System. At least that outfit didn’t appear to get any “pork”!
Fun fact for Covid. Hospitals are only allowing one visitor into maternity wards a day. My wife is with the doula (paid expert) so unless the jkd is born by midnight I can’t meet my daughter until midnight the next day.
By fun I mean unwanted dick in bum.
Edit: Labor stopped. Back in the false labor train. (Second kid had 7).
I have an autoimmune disease that makes me physically unreliable. It’s best for the doula to be there to help her through labor. All I can do half the time is sponge her head and mutter encouragement. Sucks.
Mitch Canham sounds like a dude who eats homemade beef jerky and chops down trees with an axe for fun.
Andrew checketts sounds like a person who wears scarves in the summer time to be ironic and drinks soy lattes.
The bill passed in the Senate, so should be final tomorrow.
Looks like they included poor people in addition to all the corporate welfare. Good job with that, at least.
I think reading it and assessing is the only way. Analysts will pull all sorts of gotchas out without context or intent to push their narrative. Not a fun read but can be something to do. I read through the new tax law and the ACA laws and those were real doozies.
The shutdown spending bills are probably the longest and craziest bills I have read through. It’s amazing how little pockets of the country and companies sneak shit in.
I’m willing to bet my left nut (the smaller one) that the President doesn’t read all 1400 pages before he signs it. That’s probably how executive summaries got started.
I don’t want to belabor the point (well, maybe I do), but this morning’s paper has the following record of confirmed cases in the county I live in; a suburban area bordering a metropolitan area, 200,000 people.
March 11 1
March 13 2
March 15 1
March 16 1
March 18 1
March 20 2
March 21 2
March 23 1
March 24 3
If you were to plot that on a graph across time (the horizontal axis) that would look like relatively flat line, though I have to admit the bump to 3 was attention gathering
Are you interested in silver or gold? Either way read up on how to spot fakes, and meet the guy in a public location. I have done that several times and gotten good prices on CL. My guess is you won’t find anything on there under $25 for silver and $1650 for gold (look for 1/10oz…these are good), but that’s still less than dealers. I always bring a small jeweler’s scale and weight the coin. Each has a specific weight so you’ll know it’s fake. There are also acid tests. After a while you can spot real ones and don’t need that.
If buying online from a dealer send in a check for the best prices. This is a safe way to go but you’ll pay a higher premium. Ebay is also an option. The prices tend to be closer to dealer prices but sometimes you find them below. CL is nice because you can avoid shipping and tax, all of which eat into the total cost.
Around here at least the circulated coins are called junk silver, I assume meaning they are only worth the value of the metal, no additional collector value.
There is a coin store in Eugene (Willamette Coin?) That has cases full of the nice condition collectible ones and literally 5 gallon buckets full of junk silver coins. It’s been a while since I’ve been there but he’d sell you as much as you want for a set amount over spot.
yes, they’re called junk silver; but if the banks fail and you can’t get any cash out of the ATM and you need some money to buy some black market food or fuel they have utility.
Yep junk silver. They’re usually 90% silver max, as opposed to bullion that’s usually 99.9% silver. The other category is numismatics, which are actually good to have if you fear confiscation. But their value is the silver collectability. I personally have all three, but most in bullion, then junk, then a few collector coins (morgan dollars are the best, imo, but mercury dimes are also undervalued).
For you weapon guys, what’s the best choice for an all purpose revolver? Looking for one that can do both home defense and concealed carry on walks around town, etc. I was leaning a 5-shot Ruger 4″ barrel at 28oz. But is that too much length and weight for concealed?
Nah, I have a Glock 19 on me that’s 7 1/4″ish long and probably 30oz loaded. It’s all in the holster and especially the belt. If you’re going to carry concealed you need to spend $40-50 on a good stiff carry belt. It’ll support the holster properly and make the whole experience better. I’ve been running Alien Gear for the last couple of years and I’ve been generally happy.
If your looking a ruger get an LCR. It was designed to be concealed.
Why are you on a revolver kick? You should be looking a semiautomatic. Whyyyyyy more options. And in most cases cheaper then a revolver in most flavors.
Not to scare you but watch some confrontations on youtube and world star. Its morbid as hell but it can give you perspective on personal protection. Police shootings especially since they are considered (by people who have no idea) to be highly trained (this is not the case in a majority of police departments). Watch what stress does, watch people who have situational awareness and who don’t. I suggest you get a semiauto, with at least an 8 round capacity and find a highly respected trainer in your area. Training is not cheap, but could potentially save your life and it’s the smart thing to do.
Go ahead and ask questions on here because I’m sure you’re not the only one worried about what’s going on and or have an interest in self protection but don’t know where to start.
I trained with and got certified by the NRA in 2013. All good there. Tried every type of gun. I liked shotgun and revolver best. Why revolver? Easy, never fails/jams, etc. Time tested. I had the best accuracy with them, too. I hated semi-auto.
Well if your comfortable with it, cool. Training is more then just a one time thing. Remember your 10000 hours post awhile back? Its like that. Now I’m not saying you need to train with a gun for that long to master it, but training at least once a year (not just going to the range) helps with thing you may encounter.
Oh totally agree.
I’m not sure how many hours we did. It was a program where you went to the range x amount…many hours. We do dry runs to keep fresh, but yeah, we should get back to the range. The lady did it with me so we’re both at least somewhat informed. We might not be masters, but we know proper operation and all that. Point taken tho will get back to the range more.
Look for a beginners tactical pistol class, some guys even do tactical revolver classes. These will help with things like reloading, that’s one thing with revolvers that’s difficult to do under pressure even with a speed loader.
They have them for rifle and shotguns also, super fun to do.
Were you firing the revolvers single or double action? Combat situation you won’t have time to mess with the hammer.
Capacity is King in a high stress situation. Everybody likes to think they’re Doc Holiday and they only need two shots and a cigarette to get out of any situation.
Bottom line is, the best carry gun is the one you have on you. 5 shots of 357 Magnum is the best thing in the world if the alternative is a high cap semi auto that’s at home in the safe because you don’t like to carry it.
Personally, I have a Glock 19 and a Glock 26 that I alternate between depending on clothing/time of year. With a spare mag that’s 31 rounds of 9mm on me, hopefully that’s enough to get me out of a situation or get me to the truck to get a real gun.
Yeah I hear you. I’m thinking more home defense and taking walks at night/encountering assholes. I actually ran into a dick on meth or acid who threatened my life a few months ago while I was just walking and minding my own business, and it made me realize I should carry.
End of the world/doomsday stuff I’m never going to be ready for because I’m not interested in those types of weapons. I’ll have to use my charm to get out of that pickle!
Yeah, those types of encounters are what usually make people think about carrying. When I was younger I never really gave a shit one way or another. After I got married and had kids I did a lot more thinking about being as prepared as possible for bad situations. Now I never leave the house without a sharp knife, a quality flashlight and a gun on me. Bag, vest and long gun in the car/truck.
You are dead right on the training and execution of technique during a real event. One of the reasons I ditched my gun is that I realized almost any defense situation I would use it in my family would be around. I would much rather I take a calm shot to the face than have a sloppy shoot out endangering bystanders and potentially my family.
Unfortunately it does come with the reality that if someone does come at me with a gun with intent to kill I’m a goner for sure. Hasn’t happened yet in 30 years so hopefully I avoid being a homicide statistic for awhile longer.
Edit: For anyone who might suggest tactical classes I agree it’s a very good idea for anyone who carries. My hands don’t work so hot and under good conditions my accuracy with a pistol is only about 12 feet. Not a no one should have guns just saying my skillset will never be good enough to not be a hazard so I took myself out of the running.
I carry for myself and my family, so does my wife. Our first move is escape and evade if trouble presents its self if that’s not possible I will fight while my wife gets herself and the kids to safety or cover. I’m not fighting someone else’s battles and am not injecting myself into danger just because I carry a weapon. I really don’t want to use it, but if there’s no other choice, so be it.
I told my wife before she got her CCW that she has to be 100% positive she can take someone’s life in the event something happens. It took her some time to ponder whether she could do it. I didn’t push her in to it but gave her a few interviews of people who have so she had an understanding of the huge responsibility it is. She’s 100% on board with protecting our family, and do what needs to be done. She also trains with me, and she’s damn good.
On the training, one of the main reason other then being proficient is the fact that a lot of people who carry will freeze up when the time comes. That can be the difference between a clean outcome (you uninjured) and having a knife or bullet in your belly.
For sure, my wife and I had the same conversation with the opposite outcome. Tactical training vs shooting/safety training class is a big distinction. If you are going to carry you need to know how to find cover, identify threats, move into firing positions, reload in alternate positions and fire accurately in poor conditions. Some of it really needs to be muscle memory or just like you said, freezing can get you hurt. All carriers don’t need to be John Wick but they should probably do some of the same drills.
The freeze is a killer, it happens to cops on a regular basis. Some think the the police are some kind of ultra (like you said) jon wicks. Absolutely not the case. And its 100% training or lack thereof.
“…has to be 100% positive she can take someone’s life in the event something happens”
Well said, BB, one of the most important pieces of advice on this topic.
The “get a revolver that will let you practice with .38 and carry .357” is also valid.
On 9mm, I’ll share this from a veteran cop who was asked why he carried SW40 instead, he said, “I don’t want my trigger finger to get so tired!”
Last point. For some real world comparisons of different firearms and different loads, even holsters, check Paul Harrell
on You Tube.
Nuke, all of your concerns are valid, and I can see how you guys came to the conclusion you did.
My perspective is a bit different and looking at your situation you seem to be one of the people that absolutely needs a gun. It’s the great equalizer.
Something along the lines of a S&W 351PD, 10oz aluminum 7 shot .22 Magnum packed in an appendix holster, basically forget about everything other than drawing cleanly and putting 7 shots on target inside 10 feet. Not John Wick but sure as hell not an easy out either.
Nuke, sounds like you need a cane gun. It will help with your disease and protection all in one. They even make one with a duck’s head that you can curse at.
Nuke, is it hand strength that your worried about maybe, ie pulling back a slide? I mean other then accuracy.
I was at Shot Show this year and got to play with the Smith and Wesson Shield 9MMS EZ. It’s designed for people with weaker hand strength that have a problem with cycling rounds into the chamber. Mostly geared towards women and older people (no offense). Its a pretty cool design, I have a couple of .22 semiautos that are harder to cycle then it is, and they make it in .380 also.
This will be a bit long cause its very difficult to explain the kind of damage, immobility and pain I deal with to someone who hasn’t experienced it.
My diseases attacks my body asymetricially by my immune system literally eating my soft tissue in my joints and degrading the bones. Its not like Osteo where its wear and tear. The attacks are semi random and can very in intensity and effect. I have damage that is severe enough to be considered osteo (typical old people bad knees and such) in about 25% of my joints. The worst hit places are my hands and feet. With medication it stops most of the degradation but it does nothing for the damage that already exists.
A great hand day for me would be like spraining your wrist and most of your fingers but having a week to heal and doing all the right things (elevation/ice/heat/NSAIDs/immobilization). On those days I would be confident that I can draw accurately (all rounds about the size of a softball) on a moving target (walking or side stepping when considering self defense) around 4-8 seconds from decision to draw to firing first round. On a day like that I would be fully confident to carry and defend myself or others in a defense situation. I have these days maybe 10-15 days a year.
A normal hand day is like i sprained my wrist and most of my fingers perhaps 3-4 days and took all the healing precautions. For most people it would be like having 50% functionallity but I consider this to be my normal. On a day like this I would struggle to turn off a safety and not have the confidence for the old trigger finger approach like a Glock. I usually have to use a modified grip due to my wrists being too stiff. I also tend to have enough swelling around my wrist that I get some weakness that doesn’t match up with muscle memory. Oh and it hurts like a mofo to deal with any kick what so ever. Basically I’m slow to draw and struggle with a safety so it would take me something like 20-40 seconds from deciding to act to actually firing. My first shot would probably be decently accurate on a still object around 10-12 feet with the alternate grip but with my difficulties with the kick and trouble pulling the trigger I wouldn’t trust myself to hit the broad side of a barn with successive rounds. Not safe for me, not safe for those around me or behind the shooter and certainally not effective without some good luck from the powder gods. I’m like this 150-180 days a year (I keep a symptom log daily and keep stats incase someone is wondering why I know this!)
On a bad day its like my I was in a car crash and my whole hand just got jammed into the steering column (Been in a wreck at 35 miles per hour and had my had jammed into the steering column so I know its a pretty good match). It would probably take me a minute or two fucking around with a holster to draw, my grip would be shakey and loose and i may or may not be able to actually pull a trigger. I get enough swelling that even if I can bend my fingers i may not be able to get enough signal through to the nerves to actually tell my hand what to do. I would not be confident that I could fire a 9mm without the gun falling out of my hand. I’m like this 45-75 days a year and theres no way in hell I could safely use a hand gun of any sort.
On the worst days its like I broke all my fingers (yes i have broken fingers) and then someone replaced my joint soft tissue with shards of glass. My fingers can only bend about 3 degrees off neutral and I can’t hold a cup without a silicon handle strap that loops over my hand. The strap hurts pretty bad from the weight but hey man I gotta drink. I have to use a special fork/spoon that has a basket grip and I can’t use any kind of knife (can’t apply necessary pressure or I tend to drop them). I wouldn’t even look at a a hand gun on a day like this much less pick one up. I have days like this 1-2 days a month.
So just looking at things from a probabilistic stance I can safely draw and fire 2-4% of the year…not a good look. I spent most of my childhood with firearms and I have done NRA safety trainings, tactical defense training and some advanced long gun courses (growing up I thought I might want to be a marine so I took getting good very seriously). I know how to strip, clean and rebuild most guns on the market and I know how to make my own rounds. Hell I even know and have made my own shitty black powder! So when I say I can’t safely fire a handgun I am more confident than the average liberal on that statement haha! I have considered getting a an M4 or 1897 for home defense but I could only use it if I got to a choke point with my family safely behind me. Most days I wouldn’t be confident with slugs so I would probably do the old bird shot/buckshot/buckshot/buckshot/slug move on my loading. I can’t really keep up with range work to make sure I’m confident with a fire arm except a prone or table braced long gun so that makes me nervous about having a gun around too.
Prior to my degradation and diagnosis I did do about 4 years of twice a week Krav Maga and despite what you may imagine with the liberal academic persona I’m actually a very strong and pretty large guy with a pain tolerance of a zombie. If it comes down to someone hurting my family and getting through me then they had better have a gun or significant fight training or it will probably be a bad day. I don’t train marshal arts in a formal setting anymore but I do check in with my old instructor a couple times a year and we work on modifications of disarms, throws and disabling that work with my disorder. Plus I do have my dog and trusty steel baton.
So in summary I really can’t shoot for shit anymore but I am as prepared as reasonably possible for home invasion with my current challenges. If you want something from me then just ask nicely and I probably will be happy to help. If you want to hurt my family bring a gun, and know how to use it, or you might not leave under your own power.
Also please excuse the typos – typing all that hurt haha
Death rate compared to the entire population? It’s not gonna make much sense because we have to make an assumption about how many total infections there is. If we assume 100% infections the death rate of covid is much higher than average monthly deaths.
About 225,000 Americans die in the worst month of the year (usually December) which is 0.068% of the total population.
I don’t know of a non-statistics based source after 2018. The data usually takes a year or two to trickle around and get collated. The cdc link below is the 2018 data and theres lots of tools for playing around with it.
Pathologist says we don’t have enough data to take the extreme measures that we’re taking, and it’s difficult to decide for sure because we keep getting data points with high variability (like the mortality rates between 1-7% depending on location).
Good article, exactly what I have been saying. I’d like to see a statistician take the geographic distribution if the disease to try to calculate a range of the percent people that are infected. One thing though is I think a lit of the precautions and shut downs are warranted, hospitals are already pushing capacity.
This is kind of where my head has been the last few days. The real danger with this is the stress on the hospitals, not the actual death toll of the disease.
That being the case, couldn’t we have just focused the money and resources on mobilizing things within the healthcare system to get the beds, ventilators, etc. that we needed and keep the rest of the country working? I saw the UK NHS got 500k people to sign up as volunteers to support the medical system. Surely you could do something similar here.
I think we are mobilizing health care resources, it is just a giant ship to turn. IMO the ability and capacity of our health care system to treat people should be a large part of the equation when determining when and how much to loosen social restrictions. That and testing capacity. I mean if you wake up with a slightly sore throat you aren’t going to miss 2 weeks of work cause you could have a mild case of corona, asymptotic or mildly symptomatic people need to be tested to simultaneously fight the spread while returning to normalcy.
Staffs in NYC are using trash bags as PPE. I think we’re far from mobization being ahead of this. Hopefully it’s just small pockets of extreme shortage.
The goal shouldn’t be exclusive Made in America supply chains, it should be to have a variety of sources for critical goods, including American sources. There are already lists of critical minerals, I’m sure DC could put together a list of goods that are essential to national security AND have a critical shortage of domestic or unthreatened foreign supply. Make producers tax-exempt and let any American companies that want a crack at competing in those markets compete in them. The tax-exempt status should give you ~25% relief and offset the lower margins from producing in the US.
He’s had to fight the dems, judges, media, leakers, not to mention the swamp itself, etc. I’d say under the circumstances he’s done about the best one could expect.
Tell me another US president that has had so much going against him and still brought the economy up to the level it was before covid-19. And don’t tell me it was Obama’s economy…that’s a huge load of Bernie Sanders!
And the non-Swamp Monsters he brought in are known duds like Kudlow and Tillerson.
Unfortunately, the government is too complicated to hope you can empty out all the lifers and replace them with novices. The best course would be to utilize a mix, let the newcomers guide policy, and let the vets navigate the system.
Well, as the article states this wouldnt be used during a national emergency like now. How I understand it the medical community would be encouraged to by US stocks first to fill their needs, if none were available then they could look elsewhere (over seas). Seems pretty reasonable. But they’re crying because of “muh golden parachute”.
Look at the list of signees, if you don’t think big pharm has a hand in everyone of them you’re crazy.
Wall Street is “enjoying” what’s called a “dead cat” bounce. The stimulus high and the end of the month reconciliation is driving it. Take some profits before the market closes on 3/31, if not before.
Bear market rallies are some of the most vicious. Short squeeze…big one.
Should end tomorrow.
What people don’t seem to understand is stocks are actually more expensive today than a month ago. Why? The “e” (earnings) in p/e has collapsed probably 80%, whereas the price is only down 20%…
A month ago the difference was about 30%, and now it’s more like 60%. But people think “they’re so much cheaper than a month ago I’m going to buy the dip!” and pile in…going to be a bad earnings season for them. I’ve been selling into any rallies.
If you look at the balance sheets of most companies they’re terrible sans a few winning names. People have no idea what they’re doing. Oh well. Just plan accordingly; central banks will try to move it higher, so bulls have that going for them. IMO gold outperforms stocks the next five years as we work through this contraction. Keeping 1/3 in stocks in case I’m wrong, though.
It’s probably all algo trading based on stimulus and central bank headlines.
I think you’d be wise to have some money in stocks. Even before the virus, stock valuations weren’t supported by earnings growth. We’ve had no earnings growth since the GFC. 95% of stock increases in the last decade have been because of buybacks paid for by low interest rates. Low interest rates will continue, so in theory the buybacks will, too. The deciding factor will be how much faith in the corporate bond market the Fed is able to create. If lenders believe their risk is diminished due to unlimited bailouts, they’ll keep the gravy train rolling. If not, the bond issuances stop, the buybacks stop, and stocks crater.
That said, I think there will be a heightened sensitivity to debt on the balance sheet. Companies that haven’t maxed out their buyback potential will be the best positioned. I’m thinking Amazon, for one, will be a big winner.
Yeah agree.
All gains via buybacks since ’14. Zero earnings growth. Do people not realize that? Paying more and more per share for no earnings…
Rates will support speculation/leverage, so that’s the bulls best argument. We just saw how that ends, though…but they could be right, so yeah, 1/3 stays in. Regarding debt, that’s going to be the logjam moving forward. It might cap buybacks. What company will use excess on buybacks when credit is freezing? Hard to imagine. But if they think the FED will just bail them out then they might. FED is a disaster…
The only way that is possible is to physically quarentine any infected region and truck anyone who is sick and their relatives off to contained treatment. They did do that but I have a feeling the container might be more like a camp and treatment might be survival of the fittest. Hard to say but judging by their typical regard for human lives seriously extreme measures are in the play book.
Good for you, Nuke.
Dogs are a great deterrent, even if not 125 lbs.
And there is this: my wife always says, “If you locked your husband in the trunk for 3 hours and if you locked your dog in the trunk for the same amount of time, which one would be happy to see ya when the trunk was opened?”………..Just words!, no personal experience!!
For those who don’t know Martenson, he has a PHD in virology and is an economics guy, might have a PHD in that as well…
This is exactly what I was talking about last night with all the possible errors I listed. It creates several possible outcomes with very different realities, as he describes. “Scenario A” does seem the most logical because it’s based around the math/doubling time, and that’s why I think “it’s just the flu”, “open the economy back up”, and everything else doesn’t make sense. “Scenario B” is possible, but it doesn’t have as much support (other than R0), but it’s the outcome that feels better, so people want to believe it. Either way, it should explain why I am extremely skeptical this will be quick and painless, and think the downplaying is an error. But I think he sums up well the debate.
(Please don’t respond unless you watch the video). I think the bulk of it starts around 10 minutes but probably worth watching it all.
I don’t disagree with the general conclusion, but he dismisses the fatality rate argument by presenting a false dichotomy, focusing too much on the ‘orders of magnitude’ comment by the Stanford people. Even if it isn’t orders of magnitude lower, the difference in the denominator is likely FAR greater than the difference in the numerator, which means the fatality rate is certainly lower than reported, even if it isn’t by orders of magnitude. This isn’t insignificant and the data still isn’t good enough, but he just brushes it off.
The Korea data set is really helpful in showing the “we all have coronavirus” claims are BS.
Really great video. I made it through about 30 minutes before it got heavier than my tired brain could handle haha. I think he might be my new spirit animal. I think an often overlooked issue is how long this thing takes to recover from. Its not like we are clearing beds in 3 days. People are in ICUs for 2-6 weeks. This makes huge issues getting healthcare.
that video is a solid addition to the discourse here, Angry. Link again routinely if there are updates.
my big takeaway is that both the enumerator and denominator calculations are nothing but guesses now. actually, I’ve always thought that but his logic model cinches it. But I’m always a little suspicious about binary alternatives. What might scenario C look like? Clearly we need more testing as that would eliminate the wiggle room.
But for those who want to blame Trump for our predicament I’d like to remind everyone that it is Fauci and Birks who every day say don’t need to get tested unless you are showing symptoms. I’ve never understood that unless, of course, it’s a rationalization in the face of being unprepared for doing so. (and then there’s this: if our system seems particularly unprepared, then why is the pattern the same in GB or Canada?
Also , why we were discouraged from using the garden variety face mask? (won’t protect you, droplets get through, etc.) Is that a lie? Is it a cultural aversion to common practice in Asia? (I suspect this may be the case). it is curious that the places who seem to have credibly arrested the virus’s spread (Taiwan, Singapore, S. Korean) are all in Asia. combination of testing and masks?
Then this: why were Asian countries prepared for mass testing and those in Europe and N. America not? cultural hubris in part, social focus on peripheral issues like identity politics, and lack of regular reminders that stuff like this happens. Asia seems to have learned the lesson of SARS but we did not
Yes agree C is always an option. It’s not like Martenson is gospel, but he presents a well-reasoned argument. And I agree, all numbers, good or bad, are pretty meaningless for a host of reasons discussed above, in the prior thread, and by Martenson. I think we all agree.
He is correct Scenario B would be better. But I argue that’s why people want to see it and believe it, but it’s not really supported. People want to see it for political reasons, economic reasons, or fear reasons. So they find some articles that do that.
Time will tell…I know that staying in has put less stress on hospitals. I don’t think it’s going to curb numbers in the long run.
Regarding Trump/Republicans, the worst part is they’re telling people to go back to work to save the economy. Putting economics ahead of lives is not a good look. If the elderly people in my family listen to that crap and die I’m going to be beyond pissed. You haven’t seen angry Angry yet!
Regarding masks: it’s not that masks offer great protection for the healthy it’s more making an assumption that EVERYONE is infected so 100% masking stops the spread. This is a good assumption since we don’t really know how early virus shedding starts and that some people never show symptoms. For a healthy person a masks greatest asset is probably that it keeps you from touching your face.
Trump and the Republicans wasted weeks calling this a hoax, ignoring experts and fretting about the DOW. They should have been testing at entry points, mobilizing PPE and manufacturing test kits. The response has improved but the past is undeniable. Hell just look at his Twitter feed or videos and it’s plain in his own words. They didn’t take it seriously and now thousands of Americans will die at a minimum. They still are not taking responsibility they are just trying to blame others. They failed.
Edit: Best guess on Asian preparedness is SARS and MERS hit them much harder.
Edit 2: He still isn’t taking it seriously, quote from fox news interview. “I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You know, you go into major hospitals, sometimes they’ll have two ventilators,” Trump said. “And now, all of a sudden they’re saying can we order 30,000 ventilators. So, look, it’s a very bad situation, we haven’t seen anything like it, but the end result is we gotta get back to work, and I think we can start by opening up certain parts of the country.”
We had over 17,000 reported new infections yesterday.
minor edit Nuke: Trump never called the virus a hoax; how, otherwise, to explain his travel ban from China and National Health Emergency declaration in January when officials in New York were telling people to go out and enjoy the Lunar New Year. They were the ones implying that Trump was overreacting and that the fear he was spreading was a hoax. Trump said the people blaming him for everything was hoax.
And like I said, if the US uniquely bungled this, because of Trump impliedly, then why are all the progressive regimes around us (Canada, EU, etc.) suffering as badly as us or worse.
Excerpt from his rally Feb 28th in South Carolina. Good enough for me.
Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus. You know that, right? Coronavirus. They’re politicizing it. We did one of the great jobs. You say, ‘How’s President Trump doing?’ They go, ‘Oh, not good, not good.’ They have no clue. They don’t have any clue. They can’t even count their votes in Iowa, they can’t even count. No they can’t. They can’t count their votes.
One of my people came up to me and said, ‘Mr. President, they tried to beat you on Russia, Russia, Russia. That didn’t work out too well. They couldn’t do it. They tried the impeachment hoax. That was on a perfect conversation. They tried anything, they tried it over and over, they’ve been doing it since you got in. It’s all turning, they lost, it’s all turning. Think of it. Think of it. And this is their new hoax. But you know, we did something that’s been pretty amazing. We’re 15 people [cases of coronavirus infection] in this massive country. And because of the fact that we went early, we went early, we could have had a lot more than that.
We should probably wait for the results before comparing to another country. I have a feeling those comparisons will not age well.
“For a healthy person a masks greatest asset is probably that it keeps you from touching your face.”
Anecdotally, the people I see touching their faces the most are people wearing masks. Although not Asians who seem more comfortable with them. But I see so many wearers who are constantly fidgeting with their mask.
I’m not a fan of the red hat, but if he insists on opening things back up a scenario where there are tiered levels, assuming it’s in conjunction with more testing capabilities, at least maybe throttles the effects of new cases with effects on the economy. The downside clearly is small communities who are possibly at lower risk, being further removed from metro areas, also have worse access to health care.
We definitely need more time for data. We had 3 states with 1000+ new infections yesterday and 7 with over 500 and 30 with less than 100. Every state is increasing it’s infection cases still. If curves hold were looking at 22000-25000 new cases today and something like 60k over the weekend. This virus is on a 7-14 day lag from exposure to symptoms and most states have not had more than a week of shelter in place/isolation type guidelines.
I totally agree there isn’t enough data. That Governor in Mississippi is a goof. I’m just saying that by April 12, there should be more data. And at least he is talking about a measured response as opposed to what seemed like an open the floodgates approach.
In two weeks we’ll see how exponential numbers crush NY city even in light of sheltering orders.
Some positive news out of NYC, where the rate at which new positive cases are doubling has at least slowed a little. Still pretty high numbers and too high for capacity, but hopefully a sign that they are on the downside of the initial surge already.
That said, doubling is still bad, regardless of timeline. But hopefully a sign of some slowing.
One of the worst parts for people being treated with the more severe symptoms is the duration they need to be treated keeps them occupying facilities for a couple of weeks, leaving less room for new patients. If they can find a way to shorten duration of time in ICU, it would help a ton.
The danger in opening up targeted areas is you risk people traveling there from outside because things are open. E.g. maybe the malls are closed in Chicago, but you drive to Iowa because their malls are open. The way around this is closed state borders, which gives the opposite impression of what Trump is going for.
True enough. You see it already with people leaving NY City to smaller towns and not only risking those residents with possible infection, and where there are less medical services, but also overwhelming their other infrastructure, stores etc.
I’m just saying if the government is hell bent on easing things, people in Wheeler County Oregon are probably less at risk than people in Manhattan, NY.
Totally agree, but I’d like to see some numbers behind whether it would be worth it to the economy or not. Is rural North Dakota going to be driving recovery of the tourism, restaurant, and retail sectors?
kinda off topic, but then not really. These two threads, and the ones to follow in their wake, could form, for some future historian, an interesting snapshot of the corona dynamic.
From a family friend who got some accidental puppies with his farm English lab haha. Imo two good farm dogs making puppies is gonna give you a pretty smart buddy.
I saw this the other day. They have a big culturally element with public trust and civic responsibility. Gonna be a real test of that theory that I think is probably short sighted. They are one of the most educated societies on earth so maybe they know something everyone else doesn’t? Or maybe its just wayyyyy toooo muuucchhhh hubris.
two notes: Canadian Broadcasting had a story last night featuring a local health official who was complaining about a lack of medicines (generally, not in regard to the pandemic) and noted that the sources in China and India were titrating (I always liked that word) the supply for domestic requirements. This doctor said that North America must repatriate that capability.
2) remember that guy one of our contributors found who was watching Washington data (when it seemed to matter more than it does now, admittedly), when anyway last night Washington’s governor was displaying a chart showing the rate of infection in Washington vs. steeper climbs elsewhere. just sayin’
1) Definitely. One thing that has concerned me with the lack of care for PR is that a significant amount of the US pharma industry production resides, or atleast resided, there.
2) Not sure what data he was using (maybe acouple days behind or something?) But Washington reported 619 new cases yesterday which is a 20% increase. Probably just backlog testing but that’s a steep curve.
Usually the washout is about 4 weeks after the bull trap (past 3 days)…might trade (relatively) sideways til then barring big news either way. Earnings could be a catalyst in that time period. We need to go 30% -40% lower. I’m not convinced it will happen due to investors’ love of central banks and belief that what they do works and everyone’s obsession to time an absolute bottom, but if we don’t the buyers are just buying a more expensive market than a month ago (-20% price drop / -80% earnings = more expensive despite the price decrease). They’d be buying momentum just like this past run. I think either can happen because of irrationality. Fundamentals say down, though.
You must have quick feet. If they are 20 feet away you need to load the loogie and have it fully cocked then clear 15 feet to have a good chance. What if they have a mask or a scarf? That might mean clearing 17 or 18 ft and you will need to take more time and care on the loading to verify your loogie gauge.
I hear through the grapevine that the Boulder Inn in Lebanon (a 3 star Best Western Hotel, and my favorite for Beaver sports weekends) has been turned into a makeshift hospital. That sounds pretty ominous, and it is, but perfectly sensible since the property is owned by the medical school there.
GSRMC is reallocating/re-purposing ALL of their facilities (the SAM on campus at OSU, urgent cares, etc) I’m guessing in anticipation of an outbreak here.
It’d be ideal to have 3 buildings, keep a hospital clear of all possible covids, have a rule out building and a confirmed covid19 building. I’m not sure how practical that is though. I know Good Sam and AGH already have confirmed patients. I assume Lebanon does too but haven’t heard that directly, Lebanon is actually set up to isolate a couple Ebola patients, that hospital is actually really nice.
Rule out goes beyond triage. Someone with corona symptoms needs 2 negatives 24 hours apart to be considered negative. Remember this is a test without a clinical trial to determine accuracy.
Line from Cuomo presser today, saying he makes his decisions based on data and science, not feelings or beliefs.
Amen. Wonder if we can get him to run our athletic department when this is all over.
Was reading they are hoping to start distributing these stimulus checks via direct deposit around April 8th. There’s the potential for that time line getting pushed back a little, but that’s much faster than I had anticipated.
Maybe a new thread idea. How do you all plan to stimulate the economy with these funds? Do you put it in savings for future rainy days? Or do you spend it immediately on trades that are most affected by the various governmental shutdowns? Or none of the above and spend it on hookers and blow in Vegas?
It won’t be the last check. MMT has now officially started.
In terms of how I spend this check, I purchased my dream guitar about a week ago (they’re rare and only come up every few years, so I had to pounce when it came up). It was quite expensive. Paid off half that day and financed the second half, but I’ll just pay it off the rest.
I want to redo our deck, so I’m between doing it myself and hiring someone. If the latter I might use it there and just keep the finance in place for the other.
Does anybody know if the stimulus payouts are considered taxable income? Don’t forget to hold off on some of that spending if it is. Tax time next year could be a mess.
Also, if you haven’t filed your 2019 taxes yet, that seems to be a key part in them knowing who to send payouts to, so might be a good idea to take care of that, or risk delays.
As with everything, there are multiple reports on how that will be handled. I’ve read in a WaPo article it’s based on 2019 filings. But I’ve also read it’s based on 2019 filings, unless you didnt file, then they look at 2018 filings. Then I’ve also read it’s only based on. 2018 filings. Anybody here who has read the actual bill who knows the right answer?
As a general rule, I would suspect the more steps they have to go through to process your payment, the slower it will take. So, my guess is those who have filed both years already will move towards the front of the line. But that’s all just my gut feeling and not evidence or fact based.
It doesn’t make sense to me that they’d use 2019, as tax day has been moved to July 15th. But not much the federal Gov does makes sense anyway so I wouldn’t be surprised.
They’re probably trying to use the most up to date information. They’re using 2018 info when 2019 isn’t available.
Technically, your eligibility depends on 2020 filing, but because that hasn’t happened yet, they’re using previous info as the next best thing. Some people will have to pay back a portion of their payment when they file 2020 taxes.
I want to give away a little bit but hoping to save for 20% down on a rental house investment property assuming housing prices see a drop in a year or so. I am a believer in the science behind climate change and think housing will be a good long term investment in the mild PNW climate, and a decent hedge on the coming inflation.
Yeah, an extra big lot might have some value to add a granny flat some day. I was looking at a cheapish shotgun house on a postage stamp lot though, less than 200k for sure.
With the government now essentially backstopping all mortgages through MBS purchases, private investment funds will continue buying up housing once liquidity returns. Rental housing should be a decent investment if you can buy at the bottom. Maintenance (especially on older properties) is what has always scared me away.
Yeah, I was thinking like 10 to 15 year old house so I can defer maintenance into the future. Of course with the quality of these shotgun homes maintenance might be a big issue.
Ean, you mentioned stocks above for inflation, and real estate here. While they are better than dollars, they don’t do great in high inflation.
With real estate there are obvious issues (jobs, illiquid, etc…check out exeter’s pyramid). With stocks they are dollar denominated, so any dividend you get is wiped out before you get it. They might go up in nominal terms, but will buy nothing. It’s the problem with everything but hard assets. I do think in this inflation real estate will do okay because you’re basically shorting the dollar taking on a mortgage at 3% (will totally be wiped out by inflation). But you might have a hard time finding a renter and/or selling it. So make sure you can pay that 2nd mortgage or find an income generating use for that property should you find no renter. Realize also everything associated with the house hyperinflates, including maintenance, property tax, etc. Again, makes it a so-so hedge. I prefer other things like food, guitars, sneakers, clothing, guns, ammo, water, etc. Any day to day good you can get cheap today is a great hedge. Gold will do well, but I like other things more. Only currency I put into gold or silver is purchasing power I won’t need for 30 years or more.
If you find different data let me know, but everything I have read on hyperinflation in other Countries is that sure, the stock market and real estate go up in nominal terms, but they don’t necessarily increase or maintain purchasing power. Even the move in the SPY500 the past ten years has had that where it simply tracked inflation at 8% (this is the real inflation per shadow stats, as measured by the 1970s methodology before they removed everything that rises in price).
I think we get deflation before the hyperinflation, btw. Milkshake Theory. We’re in that phase now. The more you see checks direct to the people the more the timeline for the hyperinflation grows nearer.
“How do you all plan to stimulate the economy with these funds? Do you put it in savings for future rainy days? Or do you spend it immediately on trades that are most affected by the various governmental shutdowns? Or none of the above and spend it on hookers and blow in Vegas?”
That’s a good question actually. We’re told to stay home, so how can it best be used to stimulate the economy? Order meals delivered? Order anything on amazon? Something like 70% of the economy is consumer spending(?), right? So many people in service jobs hurting, and if this goes for months, they’re really going to struggle. If I get take out lately, I tip extra.
Trump Bucks go out by April 8, and like Christ, he wants the economy to rise by Easter…so get out there and spend!
I’m hoping to hire a contractor for home improvements, and hoping that helps someone out if I can find someone.
Wonder which one of these video chat services will become the market leader? So many people are jumping onto the Zoom bandwagon right now, but there are at least a dozen other options all fighting to grab a bigger share of the market right now.
(Skype, Teams, Messenger, OOvOO, Hangouts, etc…)
The thing I dont know is how profitable these services are? I’d imagine the one that can prove to be most user friendly and accessible across all platforms will come out on top. After that, they’ll find a way to add on free vs pay features and advertising revenue to become more lucrative. Data/Call privacy needs to be a huge concern in this industry, but it’s definitely an industry that is taking off right now.
My wife is even doing her monthly book club on zoom tonight because of social distancing.
Wow, that’s a nice chunk of change. I feel guilty accepting it, only because my employment status hasn’t and won’t change because of Covid19. But I guess the best thing I can do with it is spread it around to people affected the most around my community.(angrybeavs donation included)
I was just reading on Bloomberg that the Treasury is technically the one buying MBS, corporate bonds, etc. because the Fed can’t legally do so. Essentially the Fed is acting as the Treasury’s banker, but it will be the Treasury that has financial liability. So we’re legitimately nationalizing credit markets now and the head of these efforts is the POTUS. Look for a market rally around election time.
That’s exactly right, and why above I said MMT has begun. MMT can only be done through the Treasury. FED can’t legally send anyone a check. They’re basically in cahoots now. These won’t be the last checks.
Barton of Barton Options was the first to point out that Mnuchin can circumvent the FED and force their hand on Real Vision over a Month ago. Genius observation. It’s worth watching that interview.
Yeah if anyone wants to use some of their check as a yearly AB donation that link is on the page (contact/donate).
Hosting isn’t due until 2021, but I could always negotiate a rate with the host this year and extend that if I get funds to do it. The monthly donors are very nice, too, and make me want to put more time in here, so if you can donate monthly/recurring please do. Even a couple bucks adds up.
Small study in China shows COVID targets testicles. Average age of subjects was 38 and they averaged 50% lower testosterone after testing positive. Study concludes this could lead to erectile dysfunction, infertility, and breast enlargement.
So if the “we all have COVID” crowd are right…long Duck merch sales.
Syd Wiese just announced on the Joe Beaver Show she tested positive for COVID-19. Said she’s feeling ok and the symptoms are already disappating, but she’s continuing to self-quarantine for the time being.
Wow, why would someone sabotage their career like that? Not only that, but he and his family are going to be ridiculed and publicly shamed. What does he stand to gain?
I have a theory the Republicans have a plan in place to rig the election, even if Trump loses. This would explain their hubris. Dems better be ready for the party of evil geniuses, because they have something up their sleeve.
Yeah but saying that in a snarky way does nothing. They will try to rig this.
American is in a lot of trouble due to Trump. Not just his disregard of law but the court system. He very likely gets 3 judges when Ginsberg dies any second. As a moderate I can see the reality of the situation.
Dems hate him and love pointing out the logical errors in (R) thinking. Republicans love beating Dems and calling them snowflakes. But there’s huge danger in that rift between the civilians/parties. This is why under no circumstance will I vote for him, despite doing so last election and being conservative in terms of fiscal and monetary policy (socially indifferent).
Hopefully people like myself with no affiliation to any party can pull this out and buy some time for both butthurt parties to deal so we get more sane candidates in ’24.
Everyone knows academics hate Trump. You can’t appeal to their authority on this one. There’s a complete lack of evidence that this is being considered.
Enough conservatives respect the constitution to recognize the error in Trump extending his term, and it would be political suicide for the GOP to support it. The country may be very polarized, but the largest section is still the middle and the GOP would easily lose the Senate for supporting something like this. Not to mention the fresh wave of opposition from inside the Swamp it would inspire.
The same thing was said about obama, but the libs were calling anyone who said that a conspiracy nut. Now all of a sudden it’s not a conspiracy its totally super cereal? Lol sure.
They’re so inept they won the white house despite losing the popular vote. This is the mindset that resulted in them winning in ’16 and gives them the odds in ’20.
My prediction is Biden wins, but Trump finds some loophole to remain. Very likely. Especially if Ginsberg dies and he gets a 3rd judge.
Great, they won a closely contested election. The electoral map just aligned in their favor, which doesn’t prove anything.
The GOP didn’t win. Trump did. They fought him the whole way and he won on his own merit. You really think any of the other GOP candidates would have beaten Hillary?
To the DNC’s credit, they were at least able to successfully sabotage their anti-establishment candidate (twice!)
Yeah if anything I’d argue the Dems are inept in failing to nominate Bernie in ’16 or find someone better than Biden in ’20…
Though I do think he has a better shot at Trump than Bernie would this time around. Biden should win due to moderates like myself fed up with Trump. I just don’t think Trump leaves office.
Biden’s the worst major party candidate in a long time. The only thing he has going for him is that people associate him with Obama. His best chance at winning is to nominate a moderate VP that swing voters like, especially because his mental state indicates he may not be able to last for four years completely fulfilling his duties.
you’ve got the dynamic reversed Angry. A healthy country would never have elected someone like Trump in the first place. He’s a symptom, not the cause.
Remember when he said he’d call for an investigation after the elections, because, truth be told, he didn’t expect to win, then it never happened? He’d demand one if he loses this time. He’d be unhinged on the sidelines…
People tend to forget we are a young country relative to many countries in the world. Many countries have had their versions of Trump in their past, we finally have ours. How do we proceed?
Looking to European government and their trajectories, I’m not optimistic that we’re going to return to a government where people work across the aisle and compromise, democracy is protected, and free speech is respected. The loss of those attributes is bad for everyone.
The Rs have made a deal with the devil and that’s going to be difficult to unwind, unless they find a leader who is moderate and can pull them back gracefully into the fold. The Dems have a lot to account for too, but I have to say I am shocked at how many Rs have apparently been bullied by Trump and/or sold out. If they’re not sycophants, they’re chastised on social media by Trump and his family in manners both immature and deplorable.
Both parties lack strong leadership. In the 2016 elections, I was disappointed that we were back to a Clinton, a Bush, and then Trump. Really, 300+M Americans and we’re still recycling Clintons and Bushes (Bushs?)?!? But think about since the 60’s how much the Kennedys, Bushes, and Clintons have dominated the political landscape.
There are genuinely good people out there, they just can’t afford to play the presidential election game.
He has a constituency that votes for him base on his reputation for being in favor of small government. There are plenty of people who expressed public concern about the bill. This was a way for him to brand himself as the guy who stood up for his principles without actually having to do anything because he has any easy out for a quick 180. The most ideologically-driven congressmen on both sides do this kind of thing all the time.
I went through a Ron Paul phase in ’11-’13. I love that he hates the FED. He is spot on with that. But what a piece of shit otherwise.
I later realized he’s completely delusional and thinks donations, churches, and goodwill will help the poor. I grew up poor. I relate to the poor, even if I’m not poor now. There is no fucking way any of that happens. The reality is life as a poor person absolutely blows and you have stress every second of every day. There is no way any poor person with dignity wants to be on welfare or anything else, but we were grateful to have it and get through rough times, and we grew out of it to find wealth due to work and ironically not wanting to be on welfare, despite what these fuckheads say.
So fuck Ron Paul and his ivory toward delusions. Rand is even worse. Hope he dies from Corona. That hypocritical bastard will fly to Canada and get socialized, Government health care. Seriously, fuck him.
I used to identify as a Libertarian, but I eventually realized it’s all about hyper-rational people fantasizing that everyone else is hyper-rational.
I also went through a period where I listened to Progressive radio every day going to work and realized my views aligned with 50% of what they said and were diametrically opposed to the other 50%. If we had more active political parties in this country and far-rights could form coalitions with far-lefts on issues where they had common ground, we would be in a much better place. It’s harder for people to accept they have common ground with others when the parties are such big amorphous blobs.
Angry, we’re you a Tulsi Gabbard supporter? She seems like she would have been up your alley.
I didn’t look into Gabbard much, TBH. (I guess that was her problem?).
There’s only so much time in a day.
Yeah, I went through phases, but would always listen to the other side’s arguments when doing that. Made me realize I’m simply a moderate. In an ideal world I’d be a rationalist, but in this system, I think you have to be moderate to prevent pulls to either extreme, because both are terrifying.
I went through that Libertarian phase. Parts of it are great. But they are all hypocrites at the end of the day. I view it as a luxury during good times. Kind of like vegetarians…yeah, you can be one while the shelves are stocked…
She’s mainline Democrat on quite a few things, but staunchly anti-war. She understands that the Fed is the driving force behind financial inequality and the US’s ability to wage eternal war and she’s in the Audit/End the Fed camp. She’s also a military veteran and still active in the National Guard, so she has an understanding of that part of foreign policy that most candidates didn’t.
Unfortunately, those aren’t issues that most voters care about and she wasn’t great in the debates (other than when she single-handedly ended Kamala’s campaign) so she didn’t get much traction.
Joe beaver has been pretty good, if anyone is bored, they upload previous shows in podcast, it’s weird listening to old shows and reliving how everything unfolded these past couple weeks, also it’s always good to hear from DFT…
BTW, Angry was right. It’s Friday and we broke 500k. Of course the effect of the lock down won’t start to appear for maybe another week since most of the people testing positive now were infected prior to the lock down. The curve in Washington may be bending but the curve for the world is not…yet.
Yep, we will hit the millions next week. Probably over 1. I’m going 1.4, but 2 isn’t out of the question by April 3rd. It depends how many 20 year old douche bags cough on boomers because they resent them.
I haven’t been to Costco since Feb 28th. Just before it all hit.
This is disheartening to hear. Guess I won’t go back for a bit. Or go during off hours.
Costco and Target are both bad from what my wife and I have heard. Safeway, while foods, Fred Meyer and most of the organic stores are doing a decent job.
Costco was sanitizing everything, metering and enforcing 6 ft last week, now it’s basically workers hiding and PPE and letting everyone run wild, weird. Wondering if they are understaffed to keep things going.
I’m starting to think we need a national guardsmen or officer in each store to be a dick about enforcing it.
Well that sucks. I have enough food for at least another month. Probably way more.
Maybe I’ll do a drive by and scout it out.
Amazon’s whole foods delivery has been very good. Reasonable prices for high quality food and delivered by really nice people. Used it twice just to get a few extra things, and they were awesome.
It’s actually worse than he was predicting, America steepened the curve more than expected.
As of now 592k confirmed infected, 101k US, 1, 27000 dead ww.550 deaths US. The US is doing the worst in the world by most measures except total deaths.
I’m hoping we see it mellow out end of next week or the week after as we hit the 7-14 days of isolation and other intervention. If Italy is an indicator then it won’t help much.
We won’t.
Too many young, asymptomatic people being idiots. The South is about to become a disaster because of St. Patricks, Spring Break, and Mardi…it’s about to become the epicenter. Case #s are a lagging indicator.
“Too many young, asymptomatic people being idiots. The South is about to become a disaster because of St. Patricks, Spring Break, and Mardi…it’s about to become the epicenter. Case #s are a lagging indicator.”
Saw an article about a corona virus-themed party in Kentucky…surprise, an individual there had it.
Flat roof (weird for oregon) with 2x12s at 16 on center for joists. They span 28 feet with a wall in the center for support. The outside walls of my house are 6 inch concrete from the footer all the way to the joists. It was built by a cold storage contractor in the 70’s. we would like to replace that center wall with a structural I beam or laminated beam to open up that living space. Looking for an architect or anyone else who may be able to help figure out plans for doing this.
What county are you in? I canfind you a designer or do it all myself (designers are a bit cheaper) but you will still need stamped engineering. I can do all the engineering either way or recommend a local firm that I know does good work.
Really I’d like to know what the cost of engineering something like this would be. I’m totally in the dark here. I know what the material end would be roughly.
Yeah it will vary a lot depending on who you use and the complexity of the project. I have to ask a fair amount of questions to even figure out if its a good idea for you to do that in the first place because it can be very hard to justify the shear envelope on a concrete house. It may or may not have rebar and the integrity of the concrete is a big deal. What you need is a planset with architectural drawings (demolition plan, floor plan, elevations) and a strutural planset (roof framing, floor framing and a shear diagram). The last three are called structural drawings and those are what require an engineering review. Its possible to do a project without an engineer using whats called prescriptive path but you have to meet all the requirements to pull that off. That might be possible if you put in enough posts on the roof beam.
Ball park on the architectural is $0.50-$7.0 a sqft depending on who you hire. A basic designer would be the low end. I’m $1.00-$1.50 depending on the complexity of the project. The engineering would be hourly and I really don’t know how much it would be without some questions back and forth to figure out if its economically feasible to do the project and to judge what kind of calculations I would need to do for design verification. I would guess it would be in the $600-$1500 range for the engineering and you can ballpark some architectural drawings using the square footage.
If you shoot me an email I can check the feasibility for free and give you an estimate for both the architectural and engineering. If I think you can get by without an engineer I will just tell you what that might look like.
So kind of on topic and bizarre, but I’m a first time home owner since last year, and this is our first Spring dealing with a lawn. We decided on sheers and a manual mower (cardio plus environmentally friendly!)…I ordered some highly rated ones on Amazon. Look what showed up. That’s the brand name and their slogan. You have to be F’ing kidding me!
King 5 TV in Seattle has posted a chart that shows the trend lines, by state, for the outbreak. Washington’s curve is noteworthy. Actually, California too. NYS, not so much. But then, they had a good time celebrating the Lunar New Year there at the encouragement of the local health department. And Trump is the only doofus.
Hey Nuke, if you have time, look up and link to the chart at UW institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation. Peak date is April 14th in Washington. Total projected death count by August 3 in the US is 81,114. This is the stuff the governor is seeing.
By the way, I used to post on conservative websites and tried to warn those dingbats that Trump was a wolf in sheep’s clothing. He was a registered Democrat most of his life, loves low rates, clearly knew the economy was a bubble via his 2015 tweets, etc. He’s now the biggest socialist in history. Lol. Joke is on them, as I knew it would be. The fact is the math mandates any President be a socialist, else society collapses — including your job, which is being funded either directly or indirectly by government checks, so think twice before bashing welfare.
You can put Ron Paul in there and day 2 he’d be printing 10 trillion.
Trump handing out checks and nationalizing the means of production via FED printed money. Yikes…
The only positive is that many academic eggheads suggest socialism when practiced in a democratic way is a higher state of mind that leads to higher happiness??? So they say. In eggheads we trust? We shall see. Either way calibrate for it both financially and mentally, because it’s going to be quite a change. This path has zero to do with dems or reps and is solely the Federal Reserve. Having a central bank guarantees socialism.
It’s also funny how many Republicans support socialist policy when their stocks drop. This is valid:
Not a call out but. Every country has this virus now, there is no stopping it. The second someone infected left wuhan it was over. What would you have done in this situation? You let everything collapse and we’d look like Venezuela in no time. Or you go about your business and grandma can figure it out on her own?
Completely close the borders without exception. Not popular and you would leave a lot of people stranded (I guess they’d have to quarantine in the embassy wherever else they were in the world), but stranded travelers sacrificing in this way is way less harmful than what’s going on now.
British Columbia Health Department also now reporting a bending of the curve. This social isolation stuff appears to be working where it was applied first.
Besties!
Republicans trying to pass stimulus package tomorrow at 1 EST. Is it true that only people who filed taxes last year will receive a monthly check, should the measure pass?
No, dems want more money for welfare recipients and newly unemployed and less for businesses and corps. All of this is repackaged wealth redistribution with a shiny new name.
But before our Democrat posters lose their shit, I’m kind of for getting money into the hands of people that need it. But with the paid leave and 12 weeks FMLA they just passed there are going to be a massive amount of small businesses failing very soon. We are stuck with eating a shit sandwich or a shit pizza. Don’t count on getting a check unless you lose your job.
Damn almost shat my pants there, thanks for saving me! Will be interesting to see what happens. Either way Senate has wasted a whole lot of time playing politics while the people are hurting.
The dems just put in their virus stimulus bill. 1000 pages. I hope it’s not another “we have to pass it to know what’s in it” deal. I’m assuming its 100 pages of funding for the virus and 900 pages of pork bullshit.
I was curious about how long bills usually are. Turns out 1000 wasn’t that big even in 2014. Really makes you wonder about the efficiency of a system if you can’t get things done in less than 100,000 words.
https://govtracknews.wordpress.com/2014/05/28/are-bills-getting-longer/
It’s turned into shitty deal making both ways. 100 assholes wasting air while people suffer.
Apparently its 1400 pages. Wow. And yes 100 assholes is right.
I can’t find a good link to the doc text. Please post one if you do, i always enjoy skiming ridiculously hurried massive bills.
I had a link for the text of the bill and lost it, but all the articles are highly partisan so I’m choosing not to post those. And the bill is actually 1100+ pages, apparently people are downloading it with different text sizes on their computers. All link when i find it.
Ty ty, I’m busy juggling the very Prego wife and 2 fully cooked kids.
Out of chaos comes innovation. https://www.ktvq.com/news/coronavirus/billings-doctor-finds-inventive-way-to-help-with-shortage-of-medical-masks?fbclid=IwAR24DLa9JL_OsIyuT3882IG0X3U8BcbQgxUL6oY0dUlw_RiFGLCWSEK07fI
Outstanding!
3D printing should become a huge trend at the industrial level…not so much the home level as everyone predicted years ago. But this will be a wakeup call for corporations to have industrial printers so they don’t have to rely on China should supply chain break down.
Not going to get into the politics of it. People should have their basic needs taken care of, Creditors and banks need to be flexible. We probably need to put the economy into something like an enduced coma – fund essential services to keep them in operation, help businesses remain functional until things are figured out. Stock prices should be a very low priority. Many top companies had been pumping up their own stock with buy backs for years – to appease investors and help CEOs qualify for larger bonuses. Heck, you could say Wall Street already received their bailout with the tax cuts.
Anyway – campus is so quiet. The intramural track is getting a lot of use since gyms are closed. I’ve fashioned a “course” that also includes the steps in front of Gill, a lap around Reser hurdling the posts, and benches, the parking garage steps and ramps and the bleachers at Goss. Beats the hiking trails which are packed with people and it times out to about perfect podcast length.
Fed announces unlimited QE infinity. Will buy anything and everything. RIP “markets.”
P.S. gold is soaring
Yep. Heart sank when I saw it, but I’ve been preparing for this since 2011 or ’12. Didn’t actually ever want to see it and hoped to be wrong…but knew it was coming. RIP, dollar.
Republicans: “We have found the socialists, and they are us!” Joking aside, I’ve been saying forever doesn’t matter which party is in power they all have to print. This has been true since Reagan broke the economy in ’84 and Greenspan bailed it out in ’87.
PSS- They aren’t touching junk bonds. Yet.
This is a cool map. https://covidactnow.org/
Shows the point of no return for each State, etc. People thought Washington was doing well? Estimated 116,000 deaths and that’s with 3 months of social distancing…big part of that is the hospitals become overwhelmed on the 18th. So we’re just going to see things start to pick up now.
And that’s just one state. I’ve seen this making the rounds on social media. Hard to validate their model but it is sobering.
Look at the bigger states, CA, TX, FL, NY.
Today is the beginning of cracks forming in society. How much lives are worth is the big question (or essentially the cost of freedom).
I’m cross posting this from the last thread.
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-how-long-does-it-take-to-get-sick-how-infectious-is-it-will-you-always-have-a-fever-covid-19-basics-explained-132963
Like the simple visual a lot. Hoping for slow down in stats but preparing for a lot of bad.
Have I mentioned my wife is 9 months pregnant and could deliver anytime? Third kid better Bea good one!
Here’s some light reading about hydrocloroquine and what the french are doing. Yes the study is small but IMO we should be giving this to everyone with a positive test.
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/19/french-study-finds-anti-malarial-and-antibiotic-combo-could-reduce-covid-19-duration/
Here’s some more good news about vaccine development.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/01/24/national-institutes-health-has-partnered-boston-area-company-moderna-vaccine-targeting-novel-coronav/4568266002/
I’m also hearing the New York health officials are starting a double blind study on Hydrocloroquine and z-pack cocktail to combat the virus tomorrow. I’ll post a link when I find it.
Great articles thanks!
Hydrooroquine is fairly safe but the dosage is pretty tricky. More people could easily die or get serious complications than is really palatable. I’m down with the idea of using it as a first response for any positive test but they need to really alert people to not take anything above the recommended dose.
It 100% works by slowing down replication which makes people less infectious and let’s your immune system get to work. Basically flattening the curve on an individual level.
Going to have some huge effects on the future of vaccine development.
Hydrocloroquine is way safer then chloroquine. The Chinese and South Koreans were using both with no differences in effectiveness. Chloroquine has a toxicity to it, so does hydrocloroquine but the amount to toxicity is much higher. The French are running an initial dose of 400mg with 5 days of 200mg along with azithromycin.
By the way, don’t take this shit unless prescribed by a doctor folks. I’m not one. Because this can happen when you’re stupid.
http://bannerhealth.mediaroom.com/trending-now-at-banner?item=122999
For sure, hydro was invented to lessen the toxicity. Those doses seem pretty solid to me. Typical safe RA laoding dose is 400-600 daily and maintanence is 200-400 daily. French are well withingbproven safe daily doses.
Angry here’s a different view. I’m assuming, as someone stated in another thread, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/why-this-stanford-biophysicist-predicts-a-quicker-coronavirus-recovery-were-going-to-be-fine.html
Hahahahahahahahahahh!!! What if God was one of us on this blog? A stranger in the streets like the coaches and players who have seasons now cancelled from chinese bat butt wipe virus oh the irony of that! Who’s with me on this?
You might be on to something? Jack knew EVERYTHING about EVERTHING. So Jack is God. He is not a merciful God, otherwise the Beavs would have made the fricken Rose Bowl before the world ended. I’ve started drinking my most expensive booze just to be on the safe side.
thanks for checking in, BeeG, I was beginning to worry.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/
Legitimate questions posed in this article. Interesting to me was that many that were infected showed no signs of sickness. None. Why didnt everyone become infected?
It’s an outlier, but one worth looking at. Pretty much ever prediction blog/study/article I’ve seen does not take it in to account. I think the last I looked it was anywhere from 15-18% never show signs of illness yet still shed virus -meaning they can pass the virus to others-. Those numbers are included in the mild symptoms bracket you see posted everywhere
I’m not sure if quick action and quarantining in their rooms helped or if it’s just not as contagious as once thought. Its definitely a puzzler especially when compared to what’s happening in italy.
This jives with the stats in Italy healthcare I heard.
Check this out, yikes if it’s still viable to infect.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/coronavirus-traces-lingered-in-vacated-cruise-cabins-for-17-days/ar-BB11B6sF
Saw that in my support group. Not a fan of zombie level virus survival. Never been on a floating Golden corral and I have decided never will hop on!
Golden corral ,lol. I’ve always use floating petri dish.
There’s a sector of the economy that will not return.
People will be back on cruise ships as soon as this clears, or as soon as a solid cure/vaccine is developed.
https://www.axios.com/chloroquine-coronavirus-death-09c91a91-4fe7-472c-9de9-79b890aa8fff.html
I hope this isn’t real. If so someone needs an ass kicking.
https://abc3340.com/news/nation-world/exclusive-former-hhs-official-claims-cdc-leaders-lied-to-trump-over-coronavirus-testing
Def a story to keep an eye on. If that’s true I’m suddenly more pro federal death penalty.
I saw an article around a month or two ago about the CDC not letting an FDA administrator into the building for like 3 day. The FDA guy was there about the test kits ect. That’s as far as I read, and basically ignored it as a miscommunication. This seems to be a part of it.
https://www.axios.com/chloroquine-coronavirus-death-09c91a91-4fe7-472c-9de9-79b890aa8fff.html
The president is doing a town hall tomorrow with the dr who is pushing the drug as a treatment. It’s all still anecdotal so it may work but in very specific circumstances.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-oz-pills-hydroxychloroquine-supply
Clearly the man and wife who took the drug had no idea how much to take or how often. Need thorough clinical trials before the govt recommends.
I saw this. The prices went up 4000% so people can’t afford it, and now the people with malaria are fucked/dying.
Very dubious it would work in the first place. It’s just anecdotes. People are just flat out nuts both ways.
“Why should we be testing it in a test tube for a year and a half when we have thousands of people that are very sick, and we can use it on those people and maybe make them better?” Trump. He’s right, you know.
State U underscores my long-standing view of Trump: he has a desperate need for praise, self-absorbed, verbally challenged,, but he’s not always wrong. Peak China will be a durable legacy.
sounds suspiciously like me…
Yeah specially straight clorquine is really dangerous to over do the dose. Even doubling the recommended dose in a less than healthy person could kill you. Hydro is a bit safer but still the dosage needs to be paid attention to.
The original price was 23 cent a pill. an Israeli manufacturer just donated 10 million pills to the US. I posted the article in the last thread. Its literally in every pharmacy in America. The pills are 200mg. The cycling the french are having success with is 7 pills total of hydrocloroquine.
Also we have 2 manufacturers in the US. Your seeing a lot of bullshit spread because a vaccine is what is being pushed at the cost of billions of dollars over an extremely cheap and plentiful pill. Big pharma wants that blank check inside the panic instead of a metered response with a slowed infection rate
Of course a vaccine is better in the long run.
I guess we’ll see.
Everyone is reading puke and shit coming out both ends, so we’ll have to see what happens on the ground.
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/Teva-Rushes-to-Bring-Malaria-Drug-to-U-S-15144631.php
Link wars!
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/trump-coronavirus-speech-caused-lupus-meds-shortage-report.html
Let the puke and diarrhea flow.
It’s not over the counter so I’m wondering how all of a sudden it’s not available. The only answer is doctors writing bogus scripts, someone is stealing it or that lady is full of shit.
Link war. Not really.
https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/22/daniel-dae-kim-credits-hydroxychloroquine-coronavi/
I think the bottom line is if you like Trump or (R) you’re going to believe that this drug helps cure a virus. And visa versa.
I hate them all so whatever let’s see what happens.
Well maybe, I’m hoping dems and never trumpers aren’t rooting against this treatment. That would be some fucked up shit.
Also if your wondering why guys like Dr Fauci down play the treatment, it’s because they have to. Fuuci is a clinician and pretty much the authority on infectious diseases, with no clinical trial done in the US hes pretty much bound to down playing it. Which he should, until this testing which the FDA allowed, is done.
Oh and it’s not a cure, and I haven’t heard anybody of authority call it a cure. It’s a treatment much like tamaflu.
Resident Liberal Socialist here. Definitely not pro drug failure just to prove redhats wrong. Thats insanity.
Agreed, I can be partisan on other things, but this shit is the real deal. No discrimination, no politics, everyone is in the same boat.
Worst fake news headline of the day:
Former Oregon State Star Mike Remmers signs with Kansas City.
That’s some Trumpian revisionist history right there.
Strangely, have to give that guy credit. He’s managed to hang on for waaayyy longer than I would have expected.
Oh, for sure. Calling him a “former Oregon State star” is hilariously inaccurate, though.
Angry- tried to post a link to an article today and was blocked. Any specific reason why?
Sometimes links are blocked automatically. Let me go in manually.
If this ever happens just notify me, guys.
Ok. Thank you. I will try again.
I approved the comment so it should show.
It does. Thanks again. Actually tried to post again so might show up twice.
How’s everyone doing? I know I’m missing beaver sports. Even if it wasn’t going to be that great. I see ESPN choose oregon to win the fantasy wbb national championship, I wonder if those dopes will make fantasy championship rings and a trophy.
Keep thinking I might have fallen into weird alternate reality but it could be the lack of sleep. Miss the release and simple activity of watching some sports.
I keep instinctively checking my sports app on my phone as part of my morning news cycle. Sad to see everything listed as “Postponed.”
Video game sports with my son have been a nice reprieve. We’re playing through an NCAA basketball tournament on the old X360 College Hoops game to maintain some semblance of March normalcy.
Quite a few streaming services are opening the archives of old games, too. MLB has all games from the past two years for free and they’ve linked to quite a few classic games. It’s nice watching the Mariners play when they were actually good (though the 2001 team is an uncomfortable reminder of the ridiculous doping from that era). Watching Ichiro play never gets old.
I’m trying to keep some grace under pressure, but I woke last night with nightmares about the direction of the country (both Trump and the candidates like AOC in the offing) and also had nightmares about corona. So I guess it’s not working at the subconscious level. Sleep has been really shitty lately. I don’t think anyone is “winning” no matter what happens. Nobody wins when a government gains power and a currency loses value. On the plus side, nobody super close to me has corona yet, and we have food/housing, etc. So in that sense I feel grateful. Life would be pretty good if it weren’t for the currency/government problems. My birthday is in April, and what cushions the blow every year is MLB starting up. This year none of it. That sucks big time, but first world problem. Maybe I’ll go to the field instead and hit some balls 350ft down the line and film it for A@A.
Pretty good, family had a real mild persistent cold the last week and a half but we are mostly better now.
My business is considered essential so I’m open and dealing with the public, my wife is an RN. Bad combo for avoiding this thing.
We all manage anxiety differently.
Work is keeping me busy, and in my free time I’m jamming my head with news. That doesn’t work for most people. Somehow it eases my worry.
Two teens at home. As much as they normally distance with social media, has completely flipped. They are now begging for social interaction. Very strange.
Heard something on NPR this morning. Essentially, everyone staying home will be better off than the dopes in essential services. We are basically ‘doomed’ to exposure. I suppose that we will then provide some herd immunity to you other fuckers. You’re welcome. :^)
Thanks for taking one for the team. Sports are still alive! They’re just a different type of sport.
I’m essential also….apparently. I’m still getting paid so that’s good. I feel pretty important carrying around a DHS letter stating I’m allowed through road blocks. Only to find out there are no road blocks and the sheriff doesn’t plan on enforcing this lock down. Just when I’m think I’m vitally important to my country (I’m not btw, I just hold gov contracts) I find out no one gives a shit. In reality truckers and railroad men are the real heroes right now along with heath care workers.
The silver premiums are insane. Highest in the 10 years I’ve followed the metals. Lowest prices I’m seeing on Eagles is $8 over spot or $22, with reputable sites like Apmex at $24 and huge shipping delays.
Annoying people in the metal markets claim spot price manipulation all the time (what they mean is 100 paper contracts per 1 physical oz, etc, which is true, but that’s not necessarily manipulation). I was always skeptical of that, because nobody complains of manipulation when metals spike up. But anyway, something weird is going on with this discrepancy. Gold is out of backwardation, silver slightly into backwardation. The 10 year at .81% doesn’t have any faith in anything. I wouldn’t believe any stock market rally, even if we get one on a stimulus deal — I’m selling into that. Only thing that will sell markets is finding the “e” in the p/e. April earnings all that matters at this point. That’s where you’ll see the truth, and pollution/traffic data, about economic activity, too. Not from our “leaders”. Personally ignoring all the “noise” from those dingbats other than to prepare for the fallout from their disastrous decisions.
I find it highly unlikely there will be any April earnings. The SEC already took advantage of the chaos to rollback audit requirements for SME’s. I’d imagine they would want to keep the bad news in check as long as possible.
Gold is insane this morning. Up 6% at one point.
Whenever it breaks the last high of 1650 there’s a tiny resistance at 1700 then none until 2000. Silver should become poor mans gold (and outperform…smaller market/more buyers) now that the final script has been written. Could explain the backwardation.
Did I read the FED is buying ETFs? Saw that headline and did a double take. Will have to dig in or maybe it’s bond etfs/click bait.
Gold should be 5k given all they’re doing…
I believe they’re only buying ETF’s that include the other stuff they’re buying (e.g. investment-grade corporate bonds, even though a lot of what was considered investment-grade before is probably pretty sketchy now).
$26.5 per Eagle now on Apmex. Huge increase overnight.
A head’s up during a slow period: If the spambot software gets you, or your comment doesn’t appear (spam/flag software), just write me. They should ask you to fill out a form to prove you’re not a robot with the former. With the latter issue, send me an email or write on here. No need to send nasty messages like “what the fuck!?!” — the spam software simply got you, likely because you’re on a roaming IP that triggered it. Since I don’t have time to check every message the software generally is a huge help, but it misses a few.
Cut the pork, cut the politics, cut the posturing, and cut the checks already. There are a lot of people who don’t have time for this shit, and I’m talking about both parties’ shit.
Why do we even pay these pompous assholes?
Does the Constitution require compensation? If so I’m ready for an amendment anytime.
Right there with you Scotty. Full bill should read “$$$ to all adults in equal shares” done and done and we can live a bit easier.
I got the opposite take. These people should be paid good money but forced to liquidate investments. Remove all possible and potential conflicts of interest.
Campaign finance reform is necessary too then.
Edit: How well is well also? 2X median for the area? 3X?
Well these are high profile people that could take million dollar jobs as CEOs. And asking them to disinvest from everything is a lit to ask. That said out government could easily pay them a million a year and it’d be a drop in the bucket.
Oh I was just saying if you want to close off conflicts then our campaign finance needs closed too. Not in disagreement at all, I’m pro both those steps and ending lobbiests
They should be paid on performance, so right now their paychecks should be withheld.
I know you are joking but the is no real subjective way to measure performance, it would be an even bigger cluster with 45% of the people wanting all the pay to their team, 45% to the other team an 10% face palming.
Is it possible for a national referendum? Like being able to term limit these motherfuckers. Far to many politicians have never had real life experiences. They go straight to politics never having worked a retail or service job living pay check to pay check. Never been in a middle managment job getting shit on constantly. Or never really created a job in their life. Yet they sit in DC making 6 digits and anding pork to Bill’s that help their pals in the private sector, so they have a job on a board of directors when they finally retire or disgraced into resigning.
Problem is the members of congress that have been in office a long time are wildly popular in their home districts that have become dependent on their pork gathering skills. That cuts across party lines too.
Exactly. Many districts thrive on having a rep who gets on loads of committees and rises in caucauses.
The idea of increasing the representative count is thrown around to combat this pretty often. Last I checked each rep covers roughly 750,000 people. Just going off memory but originally it was closer to 85000 (please check if you have time). Arguement against that is usually that it would mean population centers have the majority of representation. That and adherence to ancient traditions of face to face hollering when they could do most of the work online.
Term limits have been a good idea for about 250 years.
I’m not sure the blue collar experience is actually valued. AoC should be a conservative darling, picked herself up by her bootstraps, worked as a bar tender to get through school, rose above class and station by merit. They don’t like her views so the most common insults are based on being a bar tender which ofc means she is stupid.
Democrats prefer a person with a phD over a blue collar person for their vaunted understanding and knowledge or broad issues. While ranting about rights for all they often criticize the intelligence of the uneducated.
This disrespect for the blue collar experience has created a vacuum where the rich, empty, greedy and nepotistic reign.
“AOC should be a conservative darling” but her views are completely antithetical to conservative principles. You’ve mischaracterized the conservative perception of her. What most people know about her is basically the Green New Deal. She doesn’t get stick for being a bartender as much as she does for representing the most liberal fringe of the Democratic party. I think a lot of Republicans would get behind someone with a blue collar background that represented their views.
Business schools have done studies that concluded management teams and boards with more diversity of background and perspective tend to be more successful. Congress shouldn’t be any different. The goal should be to have representation of the “blue collar experience” (whatever that means), and as many other different viewpoints as there are in America.
The question is: what constitutes “blue collar” credentials? Does someone like Tim Ryan, who grew up in a small, working class town, but is a lawyer and career politician, count?
Might want to fact check the “boot strap” story. She grew up in wealthy suburb outside the city where the median house is 900k.
Dad was a lowly, downtrodden architect that ran his own firm. Revisionist history on steroids. Wish I had such a hardscrabble upbringing.
@Beav in DE – That is a legitimate reason to not like her politics. That said she gets hit with Bimbo/Bartender constantly to discredit her stances by implying or directly calling her stupid. If you don’t think thats true then I have no idea what sources you use for news cause its constant on twitter, conservative networks and liberal networks outraged about it.
Absolutely agree with diverse teams and boards, intelligence groups work the same way because diverse background gets diverse solutions. If everyone has the same ideas and background you get group think. I would define blue collar as someone with less than a BS degree and works as a middle manager or lower in organizations. I would also qualify small business owners without education who built it from the bottom up as blue collar. A lawyer despite background is definitely not blue collar because they have not lived the experience just referenced it from someone else.
https://sunlightfoundation.com/2014/06/03/white-collar-government/ – This book summary doesn’t really answer all the questions or anything but its a nice rundown that I agree with on most fronts.
@BG Her Dad died her second year of college and it put so much financial strain on her family that her mom and grandma had to move in with family in Florida. She had to work through school to make it to graduation. What qualifies as picking yourself up? Thats a fair amount of adversity at a young age. Oh and she was her famlieds point person for the probate battle over her dads estate which sounds super fun for a 20 year old. I don’t have the time to look things up but 900k house can mean many things based on the area. It also could be 900k now or 900k 20 years ago when she was 10. Cost of living makes a huge impact on actual experience. If you don’t consider cost of living then its easy to tear down anyone as an elite villian or build someone up as a poor mans hero. Are my friends who are barely making it living in a $550k starter house in Bend rich and elite despite living pay check to pay check due to job hours being cut in one of their jobs? Starter house is a piece of shit 1200 sqft pile of junk that hey are fixing up. 550k in La Grande is a straight up mansion. I get your point but I think it could use more research and nuance.
Try and read AOC’s history on Wiki and consider her as a person and not as a democrat or republican. If you aren’t mildly impressed with her accomplishments then you have some crazy expectations for what is impressive.
Edit: got curious so I looked. Beeg, from what I can tell you are not even close with where she grew up.
http://www.city-data.com/city/Yorktown-Heights-New-York.html
https://livability.com/ny/yorktown-heights
https://www.bestplaces.net/cost_of_living/city/new_york/yorktown_heights
I grew up dirt poor and now own and operate AB.
JUST SAYING.
Angry you gotta pick a party so you can have a chance at pres!
I have picked a party. The Rational Party. I think I invented it, too.
‘Girl from the Bronx’ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez grew up in …
Search domain http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5905247/Girl-Bronx-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-actually-grew-wealthy-Westchester-County.htmlhttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5905247/Girl-Bronx-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-actually-grew-wealthy-Westchester-County.html
‘Girl from the Bronx’ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who beat high-ranking Democrat Joe Crowley, faces questions over her ‘working class’ background after it’s revealed she grew up in a wealthy suburb …
Did you look at anything I posted? Daily mail is literally a tabloid in the uk man. Did you read the article you posted? It basically just backups what I already said. Here’s the smoking gun report. They just do record search investigations.
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/documents/investigation/ocasio-cortez-finances-629503
AOC runs, not walks, to the microphone and says some truly ignorant things time after time.
She grew up comfortably middle class in a rich suburb and presents herself as being from the projects. She went to an expensive private school, Boston University, and yet screams racism about everyone and everything. I’m a registered Democrat and she makes me want to projectile vomit when she opens her big yap. I can’t stand either party at this stage.
Daily Mail may be tabloid like, but they don’t filter stories based on PC bullshit. Besides they have good pictures on side of the stories :)
Lol! They most definitely have entertaining side panels.
The ship is sinking and they are rearranging the deck chairs
I have a source that says there’s an emerging supply chain problem in California. FedEx and UPS drivers aren’t reporting even though logistics are sequester proof jobs. Both companies are having to put more trailers on trains in the I-5 corridor (yes, that’s an ironic paradox) because they don’t have enough drivers to make the haul. Fortunately, those companies are mostly moving small packages rather than food and fuel, but still, not a good sign.
Can’t find much through the chaff. From a few mentions in stories it sounds like some drivers are skipping out cause they don’t think the safety precautions are adequate for themselves or customers.
I can’t verify with links on this either but concrete mixers are running out of materials and the suppliers are all shutdown. Construction could screech to a halt if it doesn’t get attention.
Those transfer drivers have the cream of the crop of work in the logistics chain. Our local center has one. And a back up. The problem is there aren’t very many of them. UPS and FedEx are still honoring GSRs, when that changes, you will know there is an issue.
Annnd, just like that, all guaranteed service has been suspended. Guess I spoke too soon.
Sounds like you spoke just right, shit is now serious.
Thanks for the info
see, not all my sources are bogus :)
What does this mean?
I have an important package coming FedEx on Saturday.
https://www.fedex.com/en-us/service-guide/money-back-guarantee.html
If they are late no refund. Probably means shipping estimates are going to get less certain.
Make sure your Chinese sex doll gets tested for STD’s as well Corona Virus, Angry. QC guy might have tested her out.
This is one of my customers, products made in China, designed at OSU.
Depending on circumstances, word of caution, possibly NSFW
https://loradicarlo.com/?gclid=CjwKCAjwguzzBRBiEiwAgU0FT3ZlvKz4RYbFz8liVruNCti-E1OxPiYfEFQlNj5l7zp-6GEZ0WksnRoC6m4QAvD_BwE
My lady asked if you sent out free samples?
No, that thing is crazy expensive, like several hundred dollars a unit expensive. Although maybe I should have asked about some barter. May have come in handy during the current situation.
@BeavGopher. I would like a sex doll. Is that wrong? I don’t know…sometimes you’re in the mood to do things a real girl won’t let you, no matter how much she likes you. I firmly believe sex dolls/robots are the future of relationships.
At the risk of making a lightweight post in the midst of all the serious (and good) ones above, I have to comment on another emerging problem. This staying at home business has inspired my wife to come up with far too many jobs for me!
My neighbor is a heart surgeon. See him in his yard once a year…. Now he is out there every day.
I second that, painting inside of house. Outside and decks when weather is better.
Feel ya. I painted our living room, hall, and kitchen (brutal! So many things need masking and so many tight corners)…also building a new guitar and reading a new book. It’s all pretty enjoyable except the shitty backdrop. Hopefully robots take over soon so we can all pursue our passions.
One word of advice re: painting. If you haven’t already, bite the bullet and buy one really good paint brush (Purdy or equivalent) and take good care of it. If you have to cut in tight corners or other spots a nice brush makes the job so much easier with a much better result.
Cool. How expensive are those? I bought one that seemed pricey ($20 at HD, forget the brand) and the guy said it was their high end model and good for corners because it had a right angle or something. It worked pretty well (I’m done with the job). I used Sherwin Williams paint, which was really nice, too.
That was probably a pretty good brush. If you ever try it with a shitty $4 Walmart brush you’ll beat your head against the wall.
So, Lil’ Rippers next December?!?
Probably not…we’re at the great grandchildren stage. I doubt if I’m up to it (no pun intended).
https://www.hospitalstats.org/ER-Wait-Time/Portland-OR-Metro.htm
Portland ER wait time is starting to crank up. You would expect them to be lower than average with people on lockdown. Def not the case.
If you are in Portland and need to head to the ER this is always a handy tool to make your choice.
Edit: Just heard from a friend in NYC who had to take her grandma in (basically just dump her in the door unfortunately). They are overwhelmed in the ER’s and have stopped testing during the inital triage. Admitting into ICU based on symptoms and testing later.
Edit 2: India just went on 100% lockdown.
The hydrocloroquine treatment study just started today in New York. Hopefully we start hearing good news by this weekend. Italy also started today.
I really hope it cuts down on replication in people to give them a fighting chance. For the unlucky few it’s an absolutely miserable and lonely way to pass.
“India just went on 100% lockdown.” Huge area, 2 billion people, generations of families living together, cesspool rivers, cattle on the street, corruptible authorities. Lockdown? Sure
Seriously. I was wondering when we were going to hear about India. With the conditions there they could have catastrophic numbers.
Been listening to interviews in India all day. Government says total lockdown and state will provide everything…People are like…uh yeah right bro, hope my family doesnt die!
Sensing a severe disconnect.
Hmm. Makes me think we should de-fund planned parenthood, ban abortions, de-regulate (environmental, banking/financial) and eliminate checks and balances in our government.
https://time.com/5809037/coronavirus-sense-of-smell-taste/
Could be a big deal for self identifying. I haven’t been able to smell poop or taste fruit since I had symptoms 2 weeks ago. Hope I don’t mix those two up without a functional snoooter.
My poop smells like roses, that’s normal though, right?
If you can smell it, then yes.
Hormel Chili is an FDA and CDC approved diagnostic test for the virus.
That’s bad news with this TP shortage going on.
Are you eating roses?
Math on toilet paper hording! Hope it brings some levity to your day haha
https://v.redd.it/ayxj2jftilo41
Was this posted already? If so I missed it…
The discussion of this being like the flu, here’s a difference…
The R0 transmission rate for the flu is something like 1.3 new infections from each infected person. This covid bug is something like 3 new infections per infected person.
Extrapolate 10 times and the first flu carrier is responsible for 14 new cases of flu. The covid carrier is responsible for 59,000 cases of covid.
Eek!
Yeah, they say the one guy from South Korea that didn’t take the quarantine seriously led to 80% of their current cases. Sucks. And America isn’t anywhere near that disciplined.
Yep, you are exactly right with those numbers. I sell the life support equipment patients are put on when ventilators aren’t enough (Google ECMO). I asked one of the clinicians I call on why there wasn’t the same reaction to H1N1 in 2009 and they quoted the same spread statistics as OJ. We’re not all going to die but a lot of people will be infected. The key is not overwhelming our hospital system and this should be managed on a state by state basis.
Angry mentioned it in the last thread. The R0 and the asymptomatic/mild symptoms makes it crazy good at spreading. Not friendly math happening in the world atm.
Yes
Yeah the mild symptoms and limited testing along with the widespread geographical locations of the known positives is what leads me to believe 5-10% of Americans already have this. If my estimate is correct this is way less deadly than believed and will also pass quicker than believed.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BeaverBaseball/status/1242632022511603712
Nice beav, any updates? Also angry how’s your cousins friend?
Thanks for asking. I’ll ask tomorrow.
I didn’t talk to any family today.
Hey F_nemac, My “spring break” vacation from work started this week, so I’m trying my best to devote my time to family activities and stuff around the house. Been checking in here occasionally but haven’t had much to say.
Parents are both in different stages of recovering from pneumonia. They’ll be fine, will just take some time. My illness, whatever it was, lasted most of a week but I feel pretty much back to normal other than persistent sniffles for the last few days. No biggie.
Hopefully I’m not carrying anything because, unfortunately, i’m the grocery runner in the family. Delivery and pickup just isn’t available, despite living within the Portland city limits. Grocery stores are the last place where I want to spend my time lately, but I had to hit no less than 6 stores today to finally find some freaking flour. Flour is the new TP.
I have a routine in the stores. Keys and phone and wallet remain off limits in my jacket pocket. I keep my debit card separate for quick access. Also keep a ziplock in my back pocket with some homemade sanitizer wiper(paper towels in bleach water) that i can use to wipe down the cart, hands, etc.
I go in the early afternoon when the stores are dead. In and out in minimal time. Barely cross paths with anybody and most people keep their distance anyway.
Since I havent been at work this week, I havent heard any updates on how the facilities are handling the ramped up number of patients. Hopefully I won’t be walking into a buzzsaw when this week off ends.
My last bit of advice, get some ColdEeze zinc lozenges. They’re money if you start to get a tickle in your throat, and there’s some thought that zinc can limit replication of certain viruses. Also, keep up on your multi vitamins. Just to help ensure your immune system has what it needs to do it’s job. And eat well.
I think some of the attention Hydroxy chloroquine has been getting lately isn’t being mentioned in conjunction with zinc, where the HC seems to be allowing zinc to be more effective for patients than just zinc alone. But from what I understand, it’s not the HC by itself that is helping shorten illness durations.
Also, take that all with a grain of salt. I’m no MD. Just from my observations this week and how I coped with my illness with more ease than I was expecting.
I cant watch the news anymore. Donald Trump is a fucking terrible leader. I wish Governor Cuomo was running against him in this election. Been really impressed with that dude.
Great to hear that everyone in your crowd seems to be recovering.
Good suggestions about shopping. Using a credit/debit card, especially when you are the one inserting the plastic into a reader cuts down on contact with the clerk AND any cash change.
I do the same thing with ziplock bag containing sanitizer wipes.
Multi vitamins, zinc, eating well all good stuff; I’ve eaten more oranges in the last weeks than usual. Nice they have their own “packaging”.
About that phone, I read they need to be cleaned as often as you wash your hands; can’t hurt.
NB, yes zink is one of the cocktail ingredients. Also ran across this article. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8149191/New-York-hospitals-treating-corona-patients-6000-milligrams-VITAMIN-C.html
Yes I know, TABLOID. I kept thinking “who do I know that was big into Vitamin C for a cure all?” Holy shit ex-beav and Nobel prize winner Linus Pauling. Although the article down plays the hydrocloroquine which is what the Vitamin C is being used with.
Zinc and Vitamin C play important roles in boosting your immune system.
Hahaha! There’s loads of research to back up boosting the immune system with supplements during an infection. The only real downside is if you over do something dangerous (usually metals) or pump up the immune system when you are at risk with auto immune disorders or a cytokine storm. Our bodies are pretty smart so if you over indulge the kidneys just filter it out and give you expensive pee.
Cheap safety and something basically anyone can do to get some control and protection.
That’s good to hear you and family are on the mend.
D3
Sean Mannion signs again with the Vikings.
http://www.twincities.com › 2020/03/18 › sean-mannion-to-return-as-the-vi…
6 days ago – Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sean Mannion (4) pass the ball against Chicago in the third quarter of an NFL game at U.S. Bank Stadium in …
Was looking to see if Brandin Cooks had signed somewhere new and found this article. An interesting read about examples of his character, his pro production, and value (he netted a first found pick each time he was traded).
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2853358-brandin-cooks-is-the-forgotten-superstar-wide-receiver-of-todays-nfl
I hope he can stay healthy and play several more years.
yeah, in Green Bay
Exactly
AOC is a joke; she is a classic example of educated beyond her intelligence (not much there at all). A classic example of a typical Dem politician – divide the county. She’s called Trump a racist and anti immigrant just like the rest of the nut job dems.
“Democrats prefer a person with a phD over a blue collar person for their vaunted understanding and knowledge or broad issues.” Where do I start with this one. How about a Chesty Puller quote: “Not All Brains Lie in Brass.” Our Academia has been infiltrated by communists/socialists and further destroyed by Federal Govt. Grants. The credentials have been cheapened incredibly.
Anyone see Joe Biden lately? That’s what the Dem’s came up with in four years? The party thinks their voters are stupid, because I guarantee that’s not who would have came out in front were your Democrat primary votes counted.
https://theweek.com/speedreads-amp/904532/trump-says-governors-have-treat-well-want-assistance-during-coronavirus-pandemic
Can someone who likes Trump please explain how a quid pro quo to governor’s for pandemic aid is okay? I’m fairly shook by this statement.
I dunno, what’s a weird statement. Like something is missing. Who did the interview? Maybe watching the whole thing could put it into perspective, but then again maybe not.
I haven’t been able to find the full interview. This link has a 30 second blurb that didn’t give me solace. I don’t recognize the interviewer as I don’t follow major networks closely, it’s fox. Had some nice nightmares about it.
https://secondnexus.com/donald-trump-governors-quid-pro-quo
Sounds like now he’s essentially deflecting the blame for supply shortages onto the states. Saying Cuomo had the opportunity to order them 2 years ago. That’s an interesting statement. So 2 years ago the Feds would have gladly supplied all the states with sufficient supplies for a pandemic, but not now, they missed their chance.
I find this terrifying..
Can the down voters please explain why I’m over reacting instead of.just anonymously dissapproving? I’m actually very scared by this kind of posturing and strategy so maybe your zen mojo could help? I really am not doing a gotcha shit post, I’m scared.
Trump’s handling of this is great, even if the liberal crybullies don’t like the way he talks. He has engaged the private sector to produce the ventilators, just as he did the test kits after the Obama holdover cronies at the CDC fucked the initial testing up and tried to cover it up. You are scared because you don’t believe in the immense strength of the USA private sector when the claws of communist bureaucrats are pulled out of them. We bombed the Germans out of existence with our production, we just flooded the market with test kits (now it’s the backlog of testing to solve) and the ventilators are coming online. Cuomo, Inslee, and Newsome all have stated Trump is doing a good job.
The federal limit of 250 tests, per site each day, doesn’t sound flooded.
Thanks for.the response. I’m actually not scared by that. I am scared by the words he is using and their implication. Be nice to me or don’t get help is what scares me.
‘No quid pro quo’
That’s not what he said. It’s what the media told you he said. I’m asking all of our friends here, Dem Repub whatever, to watch Trump directly or read his twitter directly without the filter. I don’t expect you to like it all, but you may be surprised at how you interpret things without the filter. China has financial stake in our companies…they’ve used the funds from the sellout of our manufacturing to influence and divide us through the media, our larger private corps, our institutions, our politicians.
Dianne Feinstein’s driver was a Chinese spy. For 20 years. Brilliant really, you can have a phone conversation in the back of the car of sensitive material, and it get’s “overheard.” Plausible deniability. She was chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee! How was he allowed to walk right out of the country after this was revealed?
Yeah I do read his Twitter most days and I try to listen to his actual interviews not just clips and hot takes. I don’t read much analysis from pundits of any party anymore. I prefer direct sourcing and research journals.
That said his direct commentary doesn’t give me any peace.
Regarding his Twitter, press conferences, interviews…Can we all agree, he is not a great communicator?
The fact that things regularly have to be walked back, massaged, re-released, etc, does not invoke a sense that he knows what he is doing.Even when he is right.
Great, leave it to the states to solve supply shortages independently. Then watch as a bidding war between the states takes place. I thought he claimed to be president of the United States, all of them.
For some reason can’t reply to your comment above regarding the test kits. I’m pleading with you and everyone else to watch the dang daily briefings without the media filter! Please! How does this sound: straight from Dr. Deborah Birx “220,000 test in last 8 days. (That is what SK) did in 8 weeks.” We (USA) are leading from the front. With all the countries that had this crisis before us, how do we already have the most accurate test kits? (American Exceptionalism) They announced self test kits yesterday, in what 2 weeks? Trump is cutting all the red tape with our bureaucrat agencies, the acceleration on the production is impressive, the backlog is now at the analysis of the test samples themselves. Hampered by China not being helpful and the CDC being caught flat footed – blame who you want there.
One thing nobody is mentioning – one of the biggest silent moves by the Trump Admin – waiving permits and hours on the trucking industry. If the shelves were completely empty at the stores right now think of the additional panic and rioting they country would be in. Our Truckers are holding us together, and Trump has cut them loose! (MORON Democrat Governor from Penn State deserves mention here as he shut down the REST STOPS on the turnpikes in the middle of all this. But he has a PhD with a broad depth of knowledge right? It’s about logistics!)
Hmm, hadn’t heard about relaxation of DOT regulations. Frankly not sure how I feel about a bunch of long haul drivers on the road for long periods of time. Had a friend that hauled cattle, I went on ride alongs with him, not keeping accurate logbook and that job is exhausting. BUT, desperate times call for desperate measures. AND there are a hell of a lot fewer people on the roads.
Regarding testing, what I have seen, is there is an apparent limit on tests. Here’s a sample.
https://twitter.com/CityOfDallas/status/1242591724020662279
Frankly it doesn’t sound like enough in a metro area. Celebrities etc shouldn’t be getting tests ahead of healthcare providers. And the actual tests taking days is another issue.
If the government had taken this seriously when China was melting down, the tests and test facilities may have been in place, proactively.
There are a couple of private testing facilities doing covid tests now. I’m assuming that’s were celebrities are getting it done.
And read the article that I posted and commented that someone should get their ass kicked above. It puts the testing situation into perspective. The CDC fumbled it out of the endzone, then lied about it.
this wasn’t an issue until the Obama Admin. instituted limits on how long a trucker could roll.
Some of those supply shortages are the direct result of the Affordable Care Act. In the nearly 1000 pages of law it put restrictions on PPE manufacturers to only allow the top 10% of their product be allocated for use in hospitals. Shockingly that doesn’t include VA hospitals. N95 masks have a .0001 failure rate if used properly but out of the 300,000 that one manufacturer can make per month only 30000 can be legally sold to hospitals. The rest are sold to private sector and industry at a reduced cost because there isn’t much of a demand outside health care.
Trump cut that red tape 2 weeks ago, now those masks should be moving into the system but were almost to late unless those company’s double production. That’s a tall order with what is going on now.
And I wish people would stop taking about ventilators. It’s the last resort with this virus, you really, really don’t want to be put on one. Treatments and a vaccine are our only hope.
I think it’s weird that people constantly blame a compromise bill for being flawed. It’s was made by both parties and passed by both parties. Ofc it isn’t a complete solution because they took a full theory and then negotiated it into a Frankenstein monster.
Personally without it I would probably b dead by 35 and would have been electric wheel chair bound for the last 5 years so I like it.
Personally I think it was too much, too fast. I have no problem with getting people on insurance. But when the house leader comes out and say they have to pass it to see what’s in it, I have a problem. Much like this stimulus bill and the previous stimulus, I think line item voting would be more effective. Sure it would take for ever, but at least the American people can see what’s going on and it could possibly cut down on these massive pork producers when a light is shown on it. I would think it would cause enough of a headache that they would cut this shit out.
Every law has to be passed before the rulemaking can commence…. Speaking of out of context quotes.
Yet they still didn’t allow anyone in the public or media to see the bill before they passed it. And “the fog of controversy” means nothing when you say one thing then do another. Remember when they said the affordable care act would cut the deficit? Where it would lower heath care costs? Where you’d see only a 5% raise in your health care costs? I guess those quotes were taken out of context too, huh?
Easy now. Dont be to hard on the Affordable Care Act. It was blessed by Obama.
I won’t defend Trump but I can help explain the disconnect. People, especially, the Press, continue to “read” what he says literally, when often he is just talking out loud. I’m not saying that isn’t a problem, but he’s a classic example of following what someone does rather than what someone says. For example, he has consistently followed the advice of Fauci and Birks, even if grumbles in public about doing something different.
Thanks for the considered response Wanna. Kiss the ring or don’t get help just reeks of Kings and dictators to me. Freaks me out that people in regions may suffer more If his ego is t appeased.
The federal government needs to fix all the problems of the states but Trump is also a dictator. I see these things as conflicting views. I think he is doing a great job helping the states, but making sure the Governors (sometimes reminding them) that they need to maintain autonomy, they are directly in charge of their situation. They can make the best decisions because they are on the front lines, NOT the federal Government. Small Unit Leadership.
Just the China owned media twisting words again. I mean that seriously . Dems and Media are owned by China. Dem. governors are now banning the off label prescription of Hydroxychlorquine (What’s the harm!?). Pelosi waltzed back in from her fucking vacation to poison pill the first bit of relief after it was negotiated in good faith with BOTH PARTIES in the Senate. And they collectively (Majority Dems, Many RINOS) have sold our manufacturing, natural resources, and political power out the CHINA the last 30 years. They are delaying the votes and treatment to extend the suffering with either A. the disease or B. the economic hardship. They can’t have the economy recovering before November or they are doomed (they are going to get crushed anyway as moderates are waking up to the fact they are truly enemies of America and Americans: TRAITORS)
Hey there, StateU. Thanks for the hilarious posts. Satire and comedy are good for everyone. Keep up the good work.
Hey atleast they are adding to the conversation and answering the questions. Just because you don’t agree doesn’t mean you have to insult them. Just remember, your stances may be as crazy to them as theirs are to you. Show some basic respect and then you can share ideas.
Pettibonehead – I really want to hear your thoughts on this. If it’s not the fact they are traitors beholden to China there must be a reasonable explanation for the following:
1. Why is a Democrat Governor banning use of Hydroxychloroquine in fighting COVID 19?
2. Why would Pelosi place pork like millions for the Kennedy arts and crafts center, Airline emissions etc. international disaster assistance (politicians money laundering fund) in the emergency bill when AMERICANS and AMERICAN SMALL BUSINESSES are hurting NOW?
3. Why did the DNC lackies call Trump a xenophobe/racist/idiot for closing down travel from China January 31? (He also declared a US public health state of emergency the same day)
To be clear I’m not saying fellow everyday citizens are beholden to China, most of the ones I know love this country. The DNC, much of our media, larger private companies, and public universities have been bought ought by China. Break the conditioning. or Change My Mind…happy to hear it out.
“Anyone see Joe Biden lately? That’s what the Dem’s came up with in four years?” Agree. The Democrat LLC deciders set participation rules which were a mockery and discouraged newcomers for any and all offices. The core rot is campaign finance reform but, like the weather, everyone talks about it yet nobody does anything.
Biden is a throw away just like Romney was vs Obama.
People are so taken in by the cachet of Biden’s having been Obama’s VP.
watch for Cuomo to be added to ticket. Indeed, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that Cuomo REPLACES Biden at the head of the ticket. You saw it here first.
Wannabeav I’m calling H.R.C to be on the ticket in the same maneuver you note. Smart move for them would be Cuomo, but I don’t yet believe the power of the Clinton Cartel is yet broken.
Hey Nuke: see what you can find out on why the outbreak is so limited in Japan–
close to China–(check)
old population–(check)
lots of smokers (check)
dense population (check)
they have fewer cases than many of our states do!
I’ll grab some links later for sure. I always use Japan as my ‘oh shit” barometer for diseases. They have insane hygene standards (some airports have sanitizer stations every 25m), amazing social adhearence/compliance/cooperation, and they take external threats very seriously. Couple that with high tech and manufacturing savvy it’s a nearly perfect place for dealing with a disease outbreak. I wouldn’t want to live there but sure looks nice atm.
So I looked into it and basically everyone is confused. It seems like they may be doing better just do to geographic isolation butttt…kinda looks like they just aren’t testing or bothering to do much. Many experts expect an explosion there anytime.
https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/japans-limited-response-to-the-covid-19-pandemic/
Hey Angry: how’s the soap business?
Might be washed up….
Or going down the drain?
Good.
is any of that product sold commercially, or just person to person?
Mostly person to person, but I have some big clients like Intel. Every Christmas they order a lot. A few other big names, too. I do it as a side hobby so I don’t put a lot of energy into it other than word of mouth and wherever that goes. It’s just a fun thing for me that results in some side $. Kind of like AB.
Speaking of soap I need to get some more of that pine tar in the near future. Do you have any in stock?
I’ll have to look, but I don’t think so.
I could always make more (usually do around baseball season so no big deal to me – I’d be making it soon anyway). Just let me know what you’d want.
Sounds good.
Hey man. He’s in intensive care still. That’s all my bro knows at this point.
I was thinking the other day that what this country needs is the Carroll Shelby of respirator manufacturing; and indeed, I saw somewhere (maybe Nuke or OOBie can find a link) that Ford has adapted the blower for its F-150 cabs for use in respirators. The single best line in Ford v. Ferrari is when Henry Ford, Jr. asked Shelby, rhetorically: “Do you think it was FDR who beat Hitler?”
Yup, not only Ford. GE, UAW, 3M also involved.
“The PAPRs that Ford is building, for instance, will use off-the-shelf components from the automaker’s F-150 truck’s cooled seating, as well as 3M’s existing HEPA filters. These respirators could potentially offer significant advantages in use compared to N95s, since they are battery-powered and can filter airborne virus particles for up to eight hours on a single, swappable standard power tool battery pack worn at the waist.”
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/24/ford-and-3m-ge-and-the-uaw-to-build-respirators-ventilators-and-faceshields-for-coronavirus-fight/
So they have the technology to have fart filters in truck seats. Why has this not been an option?
with the rig you have, BeeG, you don’t need to worry. In fact, if things get crazy, I’m expecting you to head to the Northwest Territories and get away from it all. You’re set. I should never have sold that yacht. (my mind is full of the imagery from CSN’s “Wooden Ships”
Did you see Ford v. Ferrari?
Man that was a fun movie.
loved it. Very much underappreciated film. That scene when Shelby takes Ford for a spin in the GT 40 is going to become a film classic.
Great movie of the epic showdown between Ford and Ferrari. Why don’t companies talk more trash to each other like that these days? A different time.
Because nobody actually races cars that are made in a factory. I remember watching Nascar with my dad in the 70s and the cars on the track were cars you could go buy off the lot. Had to build 500 of the body and had to be a factory available motor/trans/rear diff.
How can you talk shit about a tube chassis with custom built tin and a 100% aftermarket engine?
This news could be good or bad. Time will tell. https://grapevine.is/news/2020/03/24/patient-infected-with-two-strains-of-covid-19-in-iceland/
PASTING AGAIN BECAUSE I AM STILL GETTING NASTY MESSAGES.
A head’s up during a slow period: If the spambot software gets you, or your comment doesn’t appear (spam/flag software), just write me. They should ask you to fill out a form to prove you’re not a robot with the former. With the latter issue, send me an email or write on here. No need to send nasty messages like “what the fuck!?!” — the spam software simply got you, likely because you’re on a roaming IP that triggered it. Since I don’t have time to check every message the software generally is a huge help, but it misses a few.
thanks again, Angry, for keeping this site going. These few weeks/months may be this site’s finest hour. “We shall never surrender,” someone once said.
Who would have thought it would take a global pandemic to bring out the best in angrybeavs?
Also receiving consideration for Finest Hour:
-When MR bolted for Nebraska
-The Keith Kostol saga
-That time Scott Barnes accidentally emailed angry
Haaaa that Barnes email was classic. That dude is such a tool.
Still have it. Bad habit of saving everything, but good for laughs.
Ab
My email below was obviously not intended for you.
Sent from my iPhone
On Jul 8, 2017, at 2:58 PM, Barnes, Scott wrote:
Um for the 3rd time we discussed 3:45 that makes us 15 to 20 min late . It starts at 5pm and takes 1:30 to get there.
Sent from my iPhone
Just the fact that he wrote “Um” makes this cringeworthy.
Getting more objective information out on Luke Heimlich was a high point.
Responding to high quality coaching and achievements of WBB is another example. Drawing attention to women’s college sports is not something that normally occurs.
I think the comments posted here recently affirm the thoughtful character of the site, its not something new.
too bad Jack had to miss this.
He could have figured out the cure, developed a vaccine, and linked the whole mess to Bush by now.
It’s Bush’s fault, and you’re a racist.
Good speech. This is a motivational collage of Winston’s speeches.
https://youtu.be/b5q19HiNHSg
that was fabulous. Thanks. Can’t beat AngryBeavs Nation.
Don’t just post link, type something in front of link and you shouldn’t have any problems
And angry its probably just trolls
CV bill apparently held up by GOP senators concerned that it incentivizes layoffs. They don’t say why other than citing a “drafting error.”
Simple, because it pays people more to stay at home then work. GOP or otherwise this is a big error that must be corrected. And to have the lack of view to say that the GOP “is holding things up” is incredible. The Senate worked DNC/RNC together to come up with a bill, and Nancy Pelosi came back and tanked it with poison pills – all planned. All delaying need to hurting Americans and American small business.
They haven’t been able to take down the President, now we all get the heel of the DNC boot when our luck is down.
More likely trying to get more in the bill for the large corporations — you know, the ones the tax bill was for.
Welp! Its official. Third little nuke will be born as a plague baby. Wish us luck!
Congrats!
Will look for plagueBeav in 20 years.
classic Angry
“Covid Corona NukeBeav” has a nice ring to it
Good luck to you and family Nuke!
Apocalypse is a gender neutral name and pairs well with NuckBeav.
Congratulations and good luck.
Congrats…. particularly impressive from six feet out.
any child being born is memorable, but in this case? The most affecting moment in the movie 1917 was when the British soldier comes upon this young woman with a baby, who isn’t its mother. If that scene doesn’t get you, nothing will.
Congrats!
Congrats sir!
Hell ya Buddy!!! Congrats
In academic news, OSU along with every other college in Oregon is making standardize testing results optional to submit in 2021. Should destress a lot of students.
I would agree they aren’t a strong predictor of success. Just for fun though, I would love to see students take the wonderlic test.
Academic success is determined by three things, effort, talent and some luck. A test score doesn’t show all three of these things.
I remember talking to the admissions officer once and he didn’t talk about test scores once. It was more of the overall picture, grades in high school, what high school you went to, where you ranked grade wise in that school, activities, etc. Those were better predictors of students who graduated college than test scores.
by the way, remember the guy one of our contributors found late last week who suggested things had peaked in the state of Washington? Go to the UW virology dashboard. The peak increase was on March 20th. I think part of the problem we’re having in this country is the lack of numeracy (the mathematical equivalent of literacy). Everyone is looking at the vertical bar graph, which shows greater cumulative numbers of infections but the key metric is the horizontal graph plot that shows the daily addition over time. that’s where the vaunted curve shows up.
Also, the Washington State Hospital Association has ramped down the panic level. Wish I could provide a link, but that’s not in my wheelhouse (except when I’m piloting a yacht, of course).
So Washington ran out of test kits on March 20th? Noted.
not at all. check the site. test volume continues to grow but the rate of case growth plugs along right at the same rate. About 100 a day on average. but nothing like the high percentage increase you are seeing in NY. You can’t look at the chart and conclude anything but that the curve is bending in Washington.
Okay, WB. There are many other conclusions, but if that’s what you want to believe go for it.
You still think Smith made the right call on 4th down, after all. ;)
We’d have been bowling with a punt. Aw shucks.
nailed it wannabeav on the daily case rate. I find it extremely suspect that the Johns Hopkins University map and others are not charting this, amount of patients in hospitals, only the cumulative amount of cases detected and deaths.
You guys have a vested interest in Washington’s numbers being in decline. What is it?
Just go outside and see how it treats you if that’s what you believe. But that’s not what the R0 suggests. What the WA numbers suggests is tests ran out, people misdiagnosed/not diagnosed, not going into the hospital period due to cost and people there. This makes sense since the hospitals became overwhelmed right around then.
We want to see this virus die out and people live? If our lockdown is maybe working? Hope? To see if the backlog of test kits has hit yet? To try to develop an accurate percentage of death rate figures? There is a fog when situations change this rapidly. I have in interest in knowing what the hell is happening by gathering as much information as possible, filtering, and deciding for myself.
Do you have a vested interest in it going up? What kind of question is that?
Go outside and live normally. See how you fair.
Wanting it to go away you’re seeing what you want to see.
Angry, the R0 IS NOT YET KNOWN; we don’t know how many people have been infected because we haven’t tested EVERYBODY. It could be a higher or lower number than we think. The contact rate is an important part of the R0. I’d love to know if our lock down is working/is not working. Maybe another state or comparative city is showing better results. We can use this data.
The last few years you’ve really taken a holier than thou turn man.
Nah.
What the fuck are you talking about? We are all trying to get the clearest picture of what is going on with this thing and the effectiveness of the preventative measures that are being taken. Daily case rate is an extremely meaningful stat that is not being represented. Sorry Dad am I not supposed to ask for more data?
Daily case rate is one of many metrics, and it could be down for a ton of reasons, and I just gave three or four out of infinite. The R0 doesn’t support it. So unless Washington is somehow special (which it could be, but you’d have to explain why), it’s wrong. Again, go outside. See how long before you get it.
the state of Washington is important because that’s where the domestic outbreak happened. It’s not just another state in this instance. It could be a leading indicator.
Could be. If the numbers were at all accurate at this stage.
Folks on this site would be well advised to read the works of Edwin Tufte on the graphic display of quantitative information. Maybe Nuke or OOB can link to it. Numbers don’t lie, but they way they are displayed can convey a lie. The JHU site’s cumulative total doesn’t tell us anything we didn’t know in mid-February.
This I think?
https://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/books_vdqi
You guys still believe China has 81,000 cases, too? Lol.
They’ve been stuck on that for like 3 weeks! The great communist government solved everything.
not at all. The numbers in China are likely significant higher, but you’re not suggesting that because the CCP lied that the experience in Washington is bogus, are you? I wish someone could find the story about the state hospital association. No one is relaxing but the situation is still manageable, which is all that Fauci/Birks have been trying to get us to: keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed.
No my point is people believe what they want to and what governments tell them. There are people who think China locked down and stopped it at 81,000 cases. There really are people who believe that, many of them in China. But even here.
It’s more likely that Washington is overwhelmed and can’t test everyone, people can’t afford to be tested, people are misdiagnosed, people lack insurance that covers tests, etc than it is the rate of growth has declined. I know people who were sent home because they didn’t qualify for intensive care. No test. Even NiceBeav had no test, right? He had something. What was it? On Reddit people rely stories of being denied tests despite symptoms. This is happening in droves. So all numbers are off. Big time. I don’t blame Washington; it’s the nature of something spreading faster than you have workers/tests/resources. But the numbers are certainly wrong.
I recommend watching some Chris Martensen. He has a Phd in virology, and digs into the math behind the rate of growth. His forum has all kinds of stories about shenanigans in the health care system distorting the numbers, too. People relying stories. Many are in Washington so you might want to read that.
I’d like the virus to be gone just like you guys, fwiw.
Angry: I’m not denying we have a big problem, or that there have been mis-steps, certainly with testing. And I concur, there are a lot more people with the virus, the greater number of them asymptomatic (an issue unto itself), than we currently know about. And to minimize risk, I don’t go out very much.
But the key metric isn’t the spread of infection, it is the RATE of hospitalization. Hell, even Cuomo in today’s press conference pointed out that the rate of hospitalization has dropped from Sunday to Monday, Monday to Tuesday, Tuesday to Wednesday. Are there more people hospitalized from day to day?–absolutely, but it’s not arithmetic growth that is the existential threat, it’s exponential growth we need to worry about. The great policy consideration, and the one that will ultimately inform Trump’s decision on when to “start the economy,” is whether the inevitable arithmetic accretion overwhelms the nation’s hospital systems. This is where Fauci’s flattening of the curve comes in. and one last time, the hospitals in Washington are assuredly under stress, but they’re not overwhelmed. Not today anyway. As I said in the earlier thread, it is worth noting that Washington’s governor (the first state with a sizable outbreak) went to the sequester after a dozen other states did. I believe he did because state executives are being driven by a zealous press which keeps asking “why aren’t you doing what Governor xyz did?” No one wants that political exposure.
Fair enough, WB.
In NuclearBeavers spirit of questions for the other side, any TDS sufferers want to defend open borders now?
EDIT: If you’re giving it a downvote, is it too much to ask for a response? What is your logic?
What does open borders have to do with this? Are you dumb enough to believe Americans don’t go to China for business/leisure and wouldn’t bring this back? And let me guess, you have Clinton Derangement Syndrome. “But but burt da Clintons lieeeed eerrr derp.” When we had 15 cases, your boy said it would disappear like a miracle. 65,000 cases and 1,000 deaths later you’re still drinking the kool-aid. Derp derp derp but da Clintons and da Obamas caused it, ya butthurt sissies! *reloads zerohedge*
How’s that for a response?
Anyway, our Country has awful demographics/birth rates due to increased poverty/FED inflation. Unaffordable housing = no family formation. The only way to get talent into this Country is via immigration.
Are you serious? Thousands of individuals pouring over a border who are untested during a pandemic? This would accelerate to get to the better US healthcare and destroy the contact rate in the borders of the country? Your misdirect to travel from China, which was stopped by Trump before anyone else was on board, January 31. He declared a US PUBLIC HEALTH STATE OF EMERGENCY at the same time. You drink the media cool aide and turnaround and defend the Clintons, who have criminal behavior everywhere. Need examples?
-Donations to Clinton Global Initiative plummeted after she lost the election – cash for influence
-Private server in her basement. Doesn’t matter what the emails contained. Classified. Not legal. You and I go to jail. Any reasonable person can deduce she was selling server access to belligerents and if caught, could claim she was hacked and was a victim.
-Did not allow quick react teams to go in and save the teams in Benghazi, lied to Americans about how it started(we can be anywhere in the world in hours)
-Bill selling missile tech to China
-Bill Clinton is a rapist. Hillary tried to destroy everyone that came out to say something.
-Chief Counsel of the House Judiciary Committee Jerry Zeifman on Hillary’s performance during Watergate “She was a liar. She was an unethical, dishonest lawyer. She conspired to violate the Constitution, the rules of the House, the rules of the committee and the rules of confidentiality.” Nothing has changed with this politician.
-I’m done even thinking about the loser Obama, as Trump has undone much of the damage of his 8 years in less than 4.
Our countries birth rate is negative, when removing immigration, because that is what happens in developed countries. It’s a really cool statistic, because it means if we can get the rest of the world on board, we can be more sustainable as a world population.
Yes angry. I am so dumb I can’t comprehend that we all travel around the world. This is your leadership naivete showing through in thinking that you are so smart talking down to a bunch of plebes. While I could have been more specific regarding the physical border, especially the one to our South, a controlled border is good for every country for a variety of reasons, pandemic or otherwise. We were able effectively to stop travel from China because we have a defined entry control point with ports and airports.
Lol…The Clintons!!! But but her emails!! *reloads Zerohedge*
Being a criminal politician is a ok – Angry. Trump said it’s a hoax! (left wing Snopes doesn’t even back that one up) **Refresh CNN, MSDNC, other media with Chinese stake in ownership** Spit out more Chinese propoganda. Make fun of Trump.
But the best of all…willing to defend the Clintons. Thanks for clearing that up man.
I never said it was okay. I mentioned like 100x here I voted Trump. Much of it due to annoying SJWs, but also he said stocks were a huge bubble (correct, then he blew it up more) and was critical of the FED. I regret it. I was very wrong.
But at least I’m also not obsessed with a guy was was President 20 years ago and his wife.
You literally brought up the Clinton’s in this thread Angry. And I just gave you a starting list of why there are still people pissed about them; rightfully so. We should never be ok with a miscarriage of justice. And Hillary is still causing damage to this country behind the scenes. Cut the bullshit misdirection.
She was fucking Secretary of State for 4 years during the previous administration. Don’t paint it like she’s just some harmless old lady that falls down a lot. She’s an influence peddling piece of shit.
She’s a liar and piece of shit whom I didn’t vote for. Trump is a bigger liar and bigger piece of shit whom I did vote for. Joke is on me. If I’m talking about these fuckers in day to day life 20 years from now somebody kill me. You have permission.
Didn’t see your last sentence. Split apart illegal and legal immigration, they are two different things. We can really bring some great people here through legal immigration, and that is something Trump has stated many times and conservative support. Regarding illegal immigration, I think what you meant was the only way to get a Democrat Welfare Voting Block into this county (DNC support) and cheap illegal labor for big corporations, many of them big AG Firms (RINO support) is through illegal immigration. The cheap illegal labor are then exploited in their communities by the drug cartels, who also LOVE the open border, as the cartels know they have nobody to go to. To add insult to injury, they get Fed/local benefits (they make $0 on paper) and the cash paid for their wages go straight to their home country. Illegal immigration is modern human trafficking, and stopping it is an act of love for both our countryman, and THEM.
Though I noted my support above for LEGAL immigration, it’s really sad if you think that’s the only way to get good talent in this country. If that’s what you actually believe, how do you think we should take action in our community to improve education and the next generation so we have talent here too? (we have a lot of talent still, although it’s been dampened down by many bad actors in our public education system).
Angry- Some immigration perhaps. But fixing our failing education system would be a good place to start. Develop our own talent as it were. As for borders being open we are seeing illnesses being brought in that are now rare in our country. Measles, mumps, and TB are now common in many of the illegals stopped at the border. And we don’t catch them all so you know that they are being spread in the country. There were 529 cases of TB in LA county in 2018. The large majority of people infected were either Asian or Mexican.
publichealth.lacounty.gov/tb/docs/TB_Overview-FactSheet2018.pdf
My spirit loves citations, links and logical discourse.
I can appreciate that man. I think there’s alot we probably disagree on, but you seem to be the only one hearing it out and coming up with some decent questions or responses too. I’m trying to get close to that standard.
It’s part of my dogma and life idealogy. I’m an environmenal humanist which basically means I think the point of living is to improve the experience of as many people as possible to progress society as a whole. The environmental part just means that I think we should be stewards of the earth. Pretty much aligns to basic religious dogmas without a higher power.
I don’t see how debunking, shit posting, attacking or insulting helps anyone. I believe in discourse (not debate) where people share ideas, wisdom and knowledge to increase all interestes parties world view.
Doesn’t work for everyone but I find a lot of peace and companionship in it.
Are you suggesting no travel between any countries as a matter of normal policy?
That is the only logical progression in context to a pandemic. I guess the closest case studies for if it’s a good idea for pandemics would be North Korea. I can’t think of another good large population to look at though.
Awful idea economically.
Does anyone care to justify why $25 million for the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, D.C. belongs in the coronavirus Stimulus Bill?
Nope. Shows what a joke these politicians are that are pushing for that. It’s disgusting.
Much in there that is a huge waste.
That’s a great one OOB. I have some good ones that haven’t been answered from a post above. I’ll wait:
1. Why is a Democrat Governor (Nevada) banning use of Hydroxychloroquine in fighting COVID 19?
2. Why would Pelosi place pork like millions for the Kennedy arts and crafts center, Airline emissions etc. international disaster assistance (politicians money laundering fund) in the emergency bill when AMERICANS and AMERICAN SMALL BUSINESSES are hurting NOW?
3. Why did the DNC lackies call Trump a xenophobe/racist/idiot for closing down travel from China January 31? (He also declared a US public health state of emergency the same day).
1) He didn’t. It’s an anti hording measure to make sure it’s only used in hospitals. It’s limited to in patient treatment if the diagnosis is covid-19. This prevents crooked doctors from selling scripts to the rich or desperate. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/us/malaria-drugs-nevada-trnd/index.html
2) Kennedy center was in the original Senate Bill and not pushed or added by anyone in the DNC. Can’t find anything on emissions so maybe a citation, international is pretty obvious – help other countries. Trump offered North Korea help before any states so idk what the problem is for a Trumpian ideology, Either way I can’t find anything about it so maybe a citation would help.
3) Probably cause he insists on calling it The Chinese virus which increases xenophobia/racism and maybe they think he’s stupid. It seems like you are connecting character assessments/opinions to policy which can definitely affect bias but is a false equivalency.
You scared white kids are the only ones that give a fuck about this supposed Chinese racism/xenophobia/hate crime. My Chinese born brother in law hasn’t seen or heard a bit of this rampant wave of terror.
In fact, he may be the first person I heard call it the Kung Flu. Fucking xenophobic racists.
Uh…hate crime against Asians has risen with covid. Do you have a mode besides attack? It’s pretty unpleasant.
Knowing one person in a demographic and their experience with an issue doesn’t mean you know everyones. I have a Chinese friend in Vancouver that got assaulted and called covid chink last week in Vancouver. I guess you might care if it happened to your brother in law…or maybe not.
Maybe you should care more about people being hurt by unproductive dip shittery and criminal activity based. What does defending that kind of.behavior gain you?
Meh.
I’m guessing your friend is a millennial pussy. My brother in law would have dropped that motherfucker right where he stood and that would have been the end of it. No participation trophy for anyone and the last time some random fuck would run his suck to the yellow man.
It was three men and no he’s a gen x middle school teacher. He’s still doing shopping for the elderly despite being assaulted.
Just fyi I won’t see your comments anymore.
It’s factually accurate to call it the Chinese virus. To my knowledge, the few (sad, but few) cases of violence against Asians were all a few weeks ago when this was just an Asian problem that we didn’t want washing up on our shores.
That said, going out of your way to call it Chinese smells a bit like war posturing to me, which really bothers me. I’m no China lover, but Trump goes out of his way to poke them in the eye way too much. Him and Mike “Let’s Just Kill Everyone” Pompeo together scare me.
Well (and acurately) put, NB
the most common abuse is doctors writing prescriptions for themselves and/or families. Now, what does tell you about the potential efficacy of those drugs?
Not sure if it says much more than anything else. Doctors are just as human as the rest and don’t want to die or have their family hurt. It just comes down to proving efficacy which we don’t have. For some people anecdotal is enough to self medicate but it should never be true for a regulator or state to give sweeping guidance without evidence.
At times like this I wouldn’t be opposed to all healthcare workers were on something that mitigates replication of the virus but I don’t want it to be a placebo. Perhaps they could kill two birds by letting healthcare workers volunteer to take them to do efficacy studies.
I’m not concerned about the Kennedy center funding. given the size of that bill it’s almost a token amount. What concerned me more was shunting election “reform” into the bill, like vote harvesting, which rather than being enabled should be criminalized.
I think this is a decent rundown. Wanna please correct me if this isn’t what you meant. Make sure to read the full article cause it does go into the angles for each party.
https://thefulcrum.us/coronavirus-economic-stimulus
I would be happy if the nation went full vote by mail following the Oregon model. It’s pretty much the gold standard for many voting rights and anti fraud watch dog groups.
Suprisingly cause Trump and the GOP pushed for it. Melania is on the board of trustees.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/489579-trump-defends-25-million-in-kennedy-center-funding-in-coronavirus
So much for that narrative. I bet now it’s suddenly justified.
It’s always important to do research and understand a situation before making assumptions. Very human to jump to conclusions that support our world view though. We are bianary animals that love to simplify when the truth is almost always complicated and in shades of grey.
This is news to me, and I will take the time to write some correspondence to our rep. It’s not justified pork and it’s still total BS.
Did you just assume my gender?
What assumptions were made? I didn’t see anyone calling out a political party on this thread but a couple posters turned very defensive.
It was a general statement Rev, not specific to any post or user. Sorry for the lack of clarity.
@WFO yup, I assume you are an attack helicopter.
I am a meat popsicle.
Suddenly justified? Hell no!
Funding for The Center should have been debated on its own merits; regardless of the make up of its board.
I am, however, glad Melania isn’t on the board for the Public Broadcasting System. At least that outfit didn’t appear to get any “pork”!
They should just break various parts of the stimulus out. They are holding the US hostage so they can bargain.
1) Bill for the people, every adult gets X money asap. Trust people to spend it as they need.
2) Small Business help.
3) Too big to fail bailouts.
4) All this other horse shit.
Angry- Got another blocked. A reply to one of your posts- Thanks
You should be good now.
Are you roaming on a phone?
No. Sitting at home both times. Thanks again.
Will it show up or do I need to re-post?
Fill out the form and make sure you cuss a lot.
Here’s a break for all the horrible news https://osubeavers.com/sports/2020/3/23/oregon-state-baseball-all-americans.aspx
Is there a reason we didn’t go after Andrew Checketts?
Former Beav and a lot of nice experience at USCB.
I read on bh that his wife loves where they live, and didn’t want to leave.
Fun fact for Covid. Hospitals are only allowing one visitor into maternity wards a day. My wife is with the doula (paid expert) so unless the jkd is born by midnight I can’t meet my daughter until midnight the next day.
By fun I mean unwanted dick in bum.
Edit: Labor stopped. Back in the false labor train. (Second kid had 7).
Kick the doula outa there, you’re the Dad, man!
I have an autoimmune disease that makes me physically unreliable. It’s best for the doula to be there to help her through labor. All I can do half the time is sponge her head and mutter encouragement. Sucks.
Alligators are mean because of their doula oblongata.
now that’s funny.
Heard about that. Sorry Nuk.
Then you can always try to remind yourself: almost none of our dads were in the room. Most were probably still finishing their shift at work.
Thought though. Best wishes man
Yep, mine was on his way home from a long haul run. But he stopped on the way to get flowers for my Mom.
That’s the makings of a country song.
If it was a good country song he would find out he isn’t the father.
mine was playing cards on a Friday night with his buddies.
I just jammed on a ii-V-I progression for a half hour to clear my mind from the hannity and fox news parroting.
Feels much better!
Now, is there a reason we didn’t go after Andrew Checketts?
Mitch Canham sounds like a dude who eats homemade beef jerky and chops down trees with an axe for fun.
Andrew checketts sounds like a person who wears scarves in the summer time to be ironic and drinks soy lattes.
No idea, just guessing.
And sunglasses inside in the winter.
Why does that matter?
Pat Casey wanted Mitch. Simple as that.
That carries weight, but at least consider the guy. Very impressive at USCB.
It doesn’t, just late night thoughts to keep the corona virus out.
The bill passed in the Senate, so should be final tomorrow.
Looks like they included poor people in addition to all the corporate welfare. Good job with that, at least.
Without reading all 1400 or so pages is there a way to see all the bullshit included beyond what helps the majority of the people?
I think reading it and assessing is the only way. Analysts will pull all sorts of gotchas out without context or intent to push their narrative. Not a fun read but can be something to do. I read through the new tax law and the ACA laws and those were real doozies.
The shutdown spending bills are probably the longest and craziest bills I have read through. It’s amazing how little pockets of the country and companies sneak shit in.
I’m willing to bet my left nut (the smaller one) that the President doesn’t read all 1400 pages before he signs it. That’s probably how executive summaries got started.
I doubt any president has read a large full bill since Eisenhower haha.
Unfortunately, that would require reading 1399 pages.
I don’t want to belabor the point (well, maybe I do), but this morning’s paper has the following record of confirmed cases in the county I live in; a suburban area bordering a metropolitan area, 200,000 people.
March 11 1
March 13 2
March 15 1
March 16 1
March 18 1
March 20 2
March 21 2
March 23 1
March 24 3
If you were to plot that on a graph across time (the horizontal axis) that would look like relatively flat line, though I have to admit the bump to 3 was attention gathering
Don’t die on us, buddy.
I’m hanging in there, so to speak.
Yo angry how do you block people? The little x doesn’t seem to work.
Hm. It should be that. I guess it broke with the update.
Will have to look into it.
you aren’t thinking me, are you Nuke? (Hey OOB, and BG: I need some testimonials, bad.)
Let’s go in a new direction, Nuke. See if you can find links to the projections of Kevin Systrom (founder of Instagram) and Pete Souza.
No WFO. Tired of the bully mentality.
What kind of projections? Financial?
projections of the virus’s spread. Systrom has supposedly been spot on going back two weeks.
Systroms website: http://systrom.com/ – Pretty cool cause he also lists his methods.
He is also dumping tons of stuff on twitter: https://twitter.com/kevin?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Can’t find much for Souza but his Twitter is interestingish: https://twitter.com/PeteSouza?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor ***Trigger Warning*** Hes a huge liberal.
$28 now for silver eagles. That’s a 95% premium. Highest I’ve ever seen.
Makes sense but a bit shocking to see.
Edit: Angry can you give a rundown on the best way to get physical metals without getting ripped off? I’m not interested in the paper.
Probably Craigslist.
Are you interested in silver or gold? Either way read up on how to spot fakes, and meet the guy in a public location. I have done that several times and gotten good prices on CL. My guess is you won’t find anything on there under $25 for silver and $1650 for gold (look for 1/10oz…these are good), but that’s still less than dealers. I always bring a small jeweler’s scale and weight the coin. Each has a specific weight so you’ll know it’s fake. There are also acid tests. After a while you can spot real ones and don’t need that.
If buying online from a dealer send in a check for the best prices. This is a safe way to go but you’ll pay a higher premium. Ebay is also an option. The prices tend to be closer to dealer prices but sometimes you find them below. CL is nice because you can avoid shipping and tax, all of which eat into the total cost.
What are old silver coins considered? Is that junk silver?
Around here at least the circulated coins are called junk silver, I assume meaning they are only worth the value of the metal, no additional collector value.
There is a coin store in Eugene (Willamette Coin?) That has cases full of the nice condition collectible ones and literally 5 gallon buckets full of junk silver coins. It’s been a while since I’ve been there but he’d sell you as much as you want for a set amount over spot.
yes, they’re called junk silver; but if the banks fail and you can’t get any cash out of the ATM and you need some money to buy some black market food or fuel they have utility.
Yep junk silver. They’re usually 90% silver max, as opposed to bullion that’s usually 99.9% silver. The other category is numismatics, which are actually good to have if you fear confiscation. But their value is the silver collectability. I personally have all three, but most in bullion, then junk, then a few collector coins (morgan dollars are the best, imo, but mercury dimes are also undervalued).
For you weapon guys, what’s the best choice for an all purpose revolver? Looking for one that can do both home defense and concealed carry on walks around town, etc. I was leaning a 5-shot Ruger 4″ barrel at 28oz. But is that too much length and weight for concealed?
Get something you can find amno for, inventory is low and hard to find
I carry a Taurus Judge. It holds 5 rounds and is chambered for .45 long colt & .410 shotgun (2-1/2″). I alternate the rounds.
Note to self. Don’t piss him off…
Exactly!
Nah, I have a Glock 19 on me that’s 7 1/4″ish long and probably 30oz loaded. It’s all in the holster and especially the belt. If you’re going to carry concealed you need to spend $40-50 on a good stiff carry belt. It’ll support the holster properly and make the whole experience better. I’ve been running Alien Gear for the last couple of years and I’ve been generally happy.
If your looking a ruger get an LCR. It was designed to be concealed.
Why are you on a revolver kick? You should be looking a semiautomatic. Whyyyyyy more options. And in most cases cheaper then a revolver in most flavors.
Not to scare you but watch some confrontations on youtube and world star. Its morbid as hell but it can give you perspective on personal protection. Police shootings especially since they are considered (by people who have no idea) to be highly trained (this is not the case in a majority of police departments). Watch what stress does, watch people who have situational awareness and who don’t. I suggest you get a semiauto, with at least an 8 round capacity and find a highly respected trainer in your area. Training is not cheap, but could potentially save your life and it’s the smart thing to do.
Go ahead and ask questions on here because I’m sure you’re not the only one worried about what’s going on and or have an interest in self protection but don’t know where to start.
I trained with and got certified by the NRA in 2013. All good there. Tried every type of gun. I liked shotgun and revolver best. Why revolver? Easy, never fails/jams, etc. Time tested. I had the best accuracy with them, too. I hated semi-auto.
Taurus protector .357 mag revolver. 2” barrel. Have fun attempting to carry a 4” barrel revolver concealed.
You can shoot .38 special out of it all day long and it’s about $7 a box cheaper for ammo.
Someone else mentioned ammo is in short supply right now. And they are correct. A week ago all I could find locally was .40 Cal.
Also, I use galleryofguns.net gun genie. You can find the best price in your area and they’ll send the firearm to whoever you decide to purchase from.
If you want home defense? Get a 12 gauge pump shotgun.
Well if your comfortable with it, cool. Training is more then just a one time thing. Remember your 10000 hours post awhile back? Its like that. Now I’m not saying you need to train with a gun for that long to master it, but training at least once a year (not just going to the range) helps with thing you may encounter.
Oh totally agree.
I’m not sure how many hours we did. It was a program where you went to the range x amount…many hours. We do dry runs to keep fresh, but yeah, we should get back to the range. The lady did it with me so we’re both at least somewhat informed. We might not be masters, but we know proper operation and all that. Point taken tho will get back to the range more.
Look for a beginners tactical pistol class, some guys even do tactical revolver classes. These will help with things like reloading, that’s one thing with revolvers that’s difficult to do under pressure even with a speed loader.
They have them for rifle and shotguns also, super fun to do.
Tactical classes are a great idea. I need to get down to Thunder Ranch before Clint gets too old.
Were you firing the revolvers single or double action? Combat situation you won’t have time to mess with the hammer.
Capacity is King in a high stress situation. Everybody likes to think they’re Doc Holiday and they only need two shots and a cigarette to get out of any situation.
Bottom line is, the best carry gun is the one you have on you. 5 shots of 357 Magnum is the best thing in the world if the alternative is a high cap semi auto that’s at home in the safe because you don’t like to carry it.
Personally, I have a Glock 19 and a Glock 26 that I alternate between depending on clothing/time of year. With a spare mag that’s 31 rounds of 9mm on me, hopefully that’s enough to get me out of a situation or get me to the truck to get a real gun.
We fired both.
Yeah I hear you. I’m thinking more home defense and taking walks at night/encountering assholes. I actually ran into a dick on meth or acid who threatened my life a few months ago while I was just walking and minding my own business, and it made me realize I should carry.
End of the world/doomsday stuff I’m never going to be ready for because I’m not interested in those types of weapons. I’ll have to use my charm to get out of that pickle!
“I’ll have to use my charm to get out of that pickle!”
Just scream CASEY HAS WARTS, BUT JUNK SILVER. It will confuse the fuck out of them, then run away.
Yeah, those types of encounters are what usually make people think about carrying. When I was younger I never really gave a shit one way or another. After I got married and had kids I did a lot more thinking about being as prepared as possible for bad situations. Now I never leave the house without a sharp knife, a quality flashlight and a gun on me. Bag, vest and long gun in the car/truck.
You’re a Beav, just hurdle them.
I have a really good knife, but I’ve been told usually you lose the knife in a fight, and it’s used against you.
Sometimes I carry it nonetheless.
Yeah a knife is just for utility. Leatherman type multi tools are super handy to have around too.
I have a nice Leatherman in my Alice pack.
I figure if I ever need to hit the road fast it’s a great tool to have in there.
You are dead right on the training and execution of technique during a real event. One of the reasons I ditched my gun is that I realized almost any defense situation I would use it in my family would be around. I would much rather I take a calm shot to the face than have a sloppy shoot out endangering bystanders and potentially my family.
Unfortunately it does come with the reality that if someone does come at me with a gun with intent to kill I’m a goner for sure. Hasn’t happened yet in 30 years so hopefully I avoid being a homicide statistic for awhile longer.
Edit: For anyone who might suggest tactical classes I agree it’s a very good idea for anyone who carries. My hands don’t work so hot and under good conditions my accuracy with a pistol is only about 12 feet. Not a no one should have guns just saying my skillset will never be good enough to not be a hazard so I took myself out of the running.
I carry for myself and my family, so does my wife. Our first move is escape and evade if trouble presents its self if that’s not possible I will fight while my wife gets herself and the kids to safety or cover. I’m not fighting someone else’s battles and am not injecting myself into danger just because I carry a weapon. I really don’t want to use it, but if there’s no other choice, so be it.
I told my wife before she got her CCW that she has to be 100% positive she can take someone’s life in the event something happens. It took her some time to ponder whether she could do it. I didn’t push her in to it but gave her a few interviews of people who have so she had an understanding of the huge responsibility it is. She’s 100% on board with protecting our family, and do what needs to be done. She also trains with me, and she’s damn good.
On the training, one of the main reason other then being proficient is the fact that a lot of people who carry will freeze up when the time comes. That can be the difference between a clean outcome (you uninjured) and having a knife or bullet in your belly.
For sure, my wife and I had the same conversation with the opposite outcome. Tactical training vs shooting/safety training class is a big distinction. If you are going to carry you need to know how to find cover, identify threats, move into firing positions, reload in alternate positions and fire accurately in poor conditions. Some of it really needs to be muscle memory or just like you said, freezing can get you hurt. All carriers don’t need to be John Wick but they should probably do some of the same drills.
The freeze is a killer, it happens to cops on a regular basis. Some think the the police are some kind of ultra (like you said) jon wicks. Absolutely not the case. And its 100% training or lack thereof.
It’s well documented in millitary too. Missing on purpose or freezing at the critical time. Most people really are not wired for killing.
“…has to be 100% positive she can take someone’s life in the event something happens”
Well said, BB, one of the most important pieces of advice on this topic.
The “get a revolver that will let you practice with .38 and carry .357” is also valid.
On 9mm, I’ll share this from a veteran cop who was asked why he carried SW40 instead, he said, “I don’t want my trigger finger to get so tired!”
Last point. For some real world comparisons of different firearms and different loads, even holsters, check Paul Harrell
on You Tube.
Nuke, all of your concerns are valid, and I can see how you guys came to the conclusion you did.
My perspective is a bit different and looking at your situation you seem to be one of the people that absolutely needs a gun. It’s the great equalizer.
Something along the lines of a S&W 351PD, 10oz aluminum 7 shot .22 Magnum packed in an appendix holster, basically forget about everything other than drawing cleanly and putting 7 shots on target inside 10 feet. Not John Wick but sure as hell not an easy out either.
Nuke, sounds like you need a cane gun. It will help with your disease and protection all in one. They even make one with a duck’s head that you can curse at.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGVNdAILXzc
Nuke, is it hand strength that your worried about maybe, ie pulling back a slide? I mean other then accuracy.
I was at Shot Show this year and got to play with the Smith and Wesson Shield 9MMS EZ. It’s designed for people with weaker hand strength that have a problem with cycling rounds into the chamber. Mostly geared towards women and older people (no offense). Its a pretty cool design, I have a couple of .22 semiautos that are harder to cycle then it is, and they make it in .380 also.
This will be a bit long cause its very difficult to explain the kind of damage, immobility and pain I deal with to someone who hasn’t experienced it.
My diseases attacks my body asymetricially by my immune system literally eating my soft tissue in my joints and degrading the bones. Its not like Osteo where its wear and tear. The attacks are semi random and can very in intensity and effect. I have damage that is severe enough to be considered osteo (typical old people bad knees and such) in about 25% of my joints. The worst hit places are my hands and feet. With medication it stops most of the degradation but it does nothing for the damage that already exists.
A great hand day for me would be like spraining your wrist and most of your fingers but having a week to heal and doing all the right things (elevation/ice/heat/NSAIDs/immobilization). On those days I would be confident that I can draw accurately (all rounds about the size of a softball) on a moving target (walking or side stepping when considering self defense) around 4-8 seconds from decision to draw to firing first round. On a day like that I would be fully confident to carry and defend myself or others in a defense situation. I have these days maybe 10-15 days a year.
A normal hand day is like i sprained my wrist and most of my fingers perhaps 3-4 days and took all the healing precautions. For most people it would be like having 50% functionallity but I consider this to be my normal. On a day like this I would struggle to turn off a safety and not have the confidence for the old trigger finger approach like a Glock. I usually have to use a modified grip due to my wrists being too stiff. I also tend to have enough swelling around my wrist that I get some weakness that doesn’t match up with muscle memory. Oh and it hurts like a mofo to deal with any kick what so ever. Basically I’m slow to draw and struggle with a safety so it would take me something like 20-40 seconds from deciding to act to actually firing. My first shot would probably be decently accurate on a still object around 10-12 feet with the alternate grip but with my difficulties with the kick and trouble pulling the trigger I wouldn’t trust myself to hit the broad side of a barn with successive rounds. Not safe for me, not safe for those around me or behind the shooter and certainally not effective without some good luck from the powder gods. I’m like this 150-180 days a year (I keep a symptom log daily and keep stats incase someone is wondering why I know this!)
On a bad day its like my I was in a car crash and my whole hand just got jammed into the steering column (Been in a wreck at 35 miles per hour and had my had jammed into the steering column so I know its a pretty good match). It would probably take me a minute or two fucking around with a holster to draw, my grip would be shakey and loose and i may or may not be able to actually pull a trigger. I get enough swelling that even if I can bend my fingers i may not be able to get enough signal through to the nerves to actually tell my hand what to do. I would not be confident that I could fire a 9mm without the gun falling out of my hand. I’m like this 45-75 days a year and theres no way in hell I could safely use a hand gun of any sort.
On the worst days its like I broke all my fingers (yes i have broken fingers) and then someone replaced my joint soft tissue with shards of glass. My fingers can only bend about 3 degrees off neutral and I can’t hold a cup without a silicon handle strap that loops over my hand. The strap hurts pretty bad from the weight but hey man I gotta drink. I have to use a special fork/spoon that has a basket grip and I can’t use any kind of knife (can’t apply necessary pressure or I tend to drop them). I wouldn’t even look at a a hand gun on a day like this much less pick one up. I have days like this 1-2 days a month.
So just looking at things from a probabilistic stance I can safely draw and fire 2-4% of the year…not a good look. I spent most of my childhood with firearms and I have done NRA safety trainings, tactical defense training and some advanced long gun courses (growing up I thought I might want to be a marine so I took getting good very seriously). I know how to strip, clean and rebuild most guns on the market and I know how to make my own rounds. Hell I even know and have made my own shitty black powder! So when I say I can’t safely fire a handgun I am more confident than the average liberal on that statement haha! I have considered getting a an M4 or 1897 for home defense but I could only use it if I got to a choke point with my family safely behind me. Most days I wouldn’t be confident with slugs so I would probably do the old bird shot/buckshot/buckshot/buckshot/slug move on my loading. I can’t really keep up with range work to make sure I’m confident with a fire arm except a prone or table braced long gun so that makes me nervous about having a gun around too.
Prior to my degradation and diagnosis I did do about 4 years of twice a week Krav Maga and despite what you may imagine with the liberal academic persona I’m actually a very strong and pretty large guy with a pain tolerance of a zombie. If it comes down to someone hurting my family and getting through me then they had better have a gun or significant fight training or it will probably be a bad day. I don’t train marshal arts in a formal setting anymore but I do check in with my old instructor a couple times a year and we work on modifications of disarms, throws and disabling that work with my disorder. Plus I do have my dog and trusty steel baton.
So in summary I really can’t shoot for shit anymore but I am as prepared as reasonably possible for home invasion with my current challenges. If you want something from me then just ask nicely and I probably will be happy to help. If you want to hurt my family bring a gun, and know how to use it, or you might not leave under your own power.
Also please excuse the typos – typing all that hurt haha
Numbers guys: What is the death rate in the US from other than CV in -say, February?
Death rate compared to the entire population? It’s not gonna make much sense because we have to make an assumption about how many total infections there is. If we assume 100% infections the death rate of covid is much higher than average monthly deaths.
About 225,000 Americans die in the worst month of the year (usually December) which is 0.068% of the total population.
I think I shouldn’t have referred to ”death rate.” How about straight-up numbers?
I don’t know of a non-statistics based source after 2018. The data usually takes a year or two to trickle around and get collated. The cdc link below is the 2018 data and theres lots of tools for playing around with it.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/deaths.htm
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think
Can we get a summary? Didn’t like their cookie policy.
il.c
Whatever the cookie policy (never noticed, I fear) I couldn’t begin to summarize the article – too much information. Perhaps Ean can?
Pathologist says we don’t have enough data to take the extreme measures that we’re taking, and it’s difficult to decide for sure because we keep getting data points with high variability (like the mortality rates between 1-7% depending on location).
Im just glad im not deciding. Experts on all sides saying both ways. Obviously unclear data
Good article, exactly what I have been saying. I’d like to see a statistician take the geographic distribution if the disease to try to calculate a range of the percent people that are infected. One thing though is I think a lit of the precautions and shut downs are warranted, hospitals are already pushing capacity.
This is kind of where my head has been the last few days. The real danger with this is the stress on the hospitals, not the actual death toll of the disease.
That being the case, couldn’t we have just focused the money and resources on mobilizing things within the healthcare system to get the beds, ventilators, etc. that we needed and keep the rest of the country working? I saw the UK NHS got 500k people to sign up as volunteers to support the medical system. Surely you could do something similar here.
I think we are mobilizing health care resources, it is just a giant ship to turn. IMO the ability and capacity of our health care system to treat people should be a large part of the equation when determining when and how much to loosen social restrictions. That and testing capacity. I mean if you wake up with a slightly sore throat you aren’t going to miss 2 weeks of work cause you could have a mild case of corona, asymptotic or mildly symptomatic people need to be tested to simultaneously fight the spread while returning to normalcy.
Staffs in NYC are using trash bags as PPE. I think we’re far from mobization being ahead of this. Hopefully it’s just small pockets of extreme shortage.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/489622-photo-shows-staff-using-trash-bags-as-protective-gear-in-hospital-system
https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/03/26/new-york-city-nurses-wear-garbage-bags-camerota-intv-newday-vpx.cnn
Salem is asking for homemade masks too.
https://spectator.us/big-pharma-trade-association-trump-buy-american-order/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Can we start tar and feathering special interest groups and lobbyist yet?
The goal shouldn’t be exclusive Made in America supply chains, it should be to have a variety of sources for critical goods, including American sources. There are already lists of critical minerals, I’m sure DC could put together a list of goods that are essential to national security AND have a critical shortage of domestic or unthreatened foreign supply. Make producers tax-exempt and let any American companies that want a crack at competing in those markets compete in them. The tax-exempt status should give you ~25% relief and offset the lower margins from producing in the US.
Summary? Don’t like their cookie policy.
Big lobbying group for pharma companies is complaining that encouraging drugs and medical supplies to be Made in America will hinder COVID-19 efforts.
It’s just a different species of Swamp Creature trying to take advantage of current events for their own ends.
Trump didn’t do a very good job draining the swamp…
He’s had to fight the dems, judges, media, leakers, not to mention the swamp itself, etc. I’d say under the circumstances he’s done about the best one could expect.
Tell me another US president that has had so much going against him and still brought the economy up to the level it was before covid-19. And don’t tell me it was Obama’s economy…that’s a huge load of Bernie Sanders!
And the non-Swamp Monsters he brought in are known duds like Kudlow and Tillerson.
Unfortunately, the government is too complicated to hope you can empty out all the lifers and replace them with novices. The best course would be to utilize a mix, let the newcomers guide policy, and let the vets navigate the system.
Well, as the article states this wouldnt be used during a national emergency like now. How I understand it the medical community would be encouraged to by US stocks first to fill their needs, if none were available then they could look elsewhere (over seas). Seems pretty reasonable. But they’re crying because of “muh golden parachute”.
Look at the list of signees, if you don’t think big pharm has a hand in everyone of them you’re crazy.
Wall Street is “enjoying” what’s called a “dead cat” bounce. The stimulus high and the end of the month reconciliation is driving it. Take some profits before the market closes on 3/31, if not before.
Bear market rallies are some of the most vicious. Short squeeze…big one.
Should end tomorrow.
What people don’t seem to understand is stocks are actually more expensive today than a month ago. Why? The “e” (earnings) in p/e has collapsed probably 80%, whereas the price is only down 20%…
A month ago the difference was about 30%, and now it’s more like 60%. But people think “they’re so much cheaper than a month ago I’m going to buy the dip!” and pile in…going to be a bad earnings season for them. I’ve been selling into any rallies.
If you look at the balance sheets of most companies they’re terrible sans a few winning names. People have no idea what they’re doing. Oh well. Just plan accordingly; central banks will try to move it higher, so bulls have that going for them. IMO gold outperforms stocks the next five years as we work through this contraction. Keeping 1/3 in stocks in case I’m wrong, though.
It’s probably all algo trading based on stimulus and central bank headlines.
I think you’d be wise to have some money in stocks. Even before the virus, stock valuations weren’t supported by earnings growth. We’ve had no earnings growth since the GFC. 95% of stock increases in the last decade have been because of buybacks paid for by low interest rates. Low interest rates will continue, so in theory the buybacks will, too. The deciding factor will be how much faith in the corporate bond market the Fed is able to create. If lenders believe their risk is diminished due to unlimited bailouts, they’ll keep the gravy train rolling. If not, the bond issuances stop, the buybacks stop, and stocks crater.
That said, I think there will be a heightened sensitivity to debt on the balance sheet. Companies that haven’t maxed out their buyback potential will be the best positioned. I’m thinking Amazon, for one, will be a big winner.
Yeah agree.
All gains via buybacks since ’14. Zero earnings growth. Do people not realize that? Paying more and more per share for no earnings…
Rates will support speculation/leverage, so that’s the bulls best argument. We just saw how that ends, though…but they could be right, so yeah, 1/3 stays in. Regarding debt, that’s going to be the logjam moving forward. It might cap buybacks. What company will use excess on buybacks when credit is freezing? Hard to imagine. But if they think the FED will just bail them out then they might. FED is a disaster…
Amazon a winner.
I think another case for stocks is inflation.
And as always: “This information is not for investment purposes.”
Thank you.
We have the most confirmed infections in the world now (I know guys, China is probably not accurate at all).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
I’d like to make a joke about bigly numbers but I reckon folks are a little sensitive to political jokes at the moment.
Crossed my mind too but it’s pretty sobering.
China, wtf. No cases in three weeks. What assholes.
The only way that is possible is to physically quarentine any infected region and truck anyone who is sick and their relatives off to contained treatment. They did do that but I have a feeling the container might be more like a camp and treatment might be survival of the fittest. Hard to say but judging by their typical regard for human lives seriously extreme measures are in the play book.
Or just shoot them and throw them in a ditch. Violá no cases.
lying.
The only thing reliable about Chinese data is that it’s reliably wrong
Yeah. But what are they thinking? That people will believe they went from 81k cases to 0 new cases?
What morons.
I regret to report that my county today had 10 new cases; more than triple the earlier high water mark. I, however, am still alive, Angry.
Bruh.
https://twitter.com/MikaelThalen/status/1243281598037913600?s=09
Nuke , if u are worried, and if u can, get a couple big dogs, good dogs can take care of a lot of problems, IMO
I have a great dog. He’s sweet as can be, protective and has a bark like a fog horn. He’s 125 lb boxer, lab, ridgeback mix.
He’s an absolute lush with the kids but has no qualms buying time while I get the steel baton ready. He ripped a racoons head off last year.
Good for you, Nuke.
Dogs are a great deterrent, even if not 125 lbs.
And there is this: my wife always says, “If you locked your husband in the trunk for 3 hours and if you locked your dog in the trunk for the same amount of time, which one would be happy to see ya when the trunk was opened?”………..Just words!, no personal experience!!
Hahahaha! Your wife sounds pretty wise.
Heard the same but in reverse. Women always repurposing our jokes.
FOOTBALL:
From the GT: Talite Moala rejoins program as recruiting assistant
He was on GA’s staff, does it matter?
https://www.gazettetimes.com/sports/beavers-sports/football/osu-football-talite-moala-rejoins-program-as-recruiting-assistant/article_7148034d-e607-58a3-9a82-f51cef708ee6.html
No
Does he still fit in his big boy pants?
For those who like logic/math, check out the new Martenson on Corona: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YN7aBiICz4
For those who don’t know Martenson, he has a PHD in virology and is an economics guy, might have a PHD in that as well…
This is exactly what I was talking about last night with all the possible errors I listed. It creates several possible outcomes with very different realities, as he describes. “Scenario A” does seem the most logical because it’s based around the math/doubling time, and that’s why I think “it’s just the flu”, “open the economy back up”, and everything else doesn’t make sense. “Scenario B” is possible, but it doesn’t have as much support (other than R0), but it’s the outcome that feels better, so people want to believe it. Either way, it should explain why I am extremely skeptical this will be quick and painless, and think the downplaying is an error. But I think he sums up well the debate.
(Please don’t respond unless you watch the video). I think the bulk of it starts around 10 minutes but probably worth watching it all.
I don’t disagree with the general conclusion, but he dismisses the fatality rate argument by presenting a false dichotomy, focusing too much on the ‘orders of magnitude’ comment by the Stanford people. Even if it isn’t orders of magnitude lower, the difference in the denominator is likely FAR greater than the difference in the numerator, which means the fatality rate is certainly lower than reported, even if it isn’t by orders of magnitude. This isn’t insignificant and the data still isn’t good enough, but he just brushes it off.
The Korea data set is really helpful in showing the “we all have coronavirus” claims are BS.
He mentions that, and I think everyone agrees the denominator is greater.
Really great video. I made it through about 30 minutes before it got heavier than my tired brain could handle haha. I think he might be my new spirit animal. I think an often overlooked issue is how long this thing takes to recover from. Its not like we are clearing beds in 3 days. People are in ICUs for 2-6 weeks. This makes huge issues getting healthcare.
Been watching Martenson since ’11 or so. He’s very smart. But he was a “peak oil” guy…oh boy.
that video is a solid addition to the discourse here, Angry. Link again routinely if there are updates.
my big takeaway is that both the enumerator and denominator calculations are nothing but guesses now. actually, I’ve always thought that but his logic model cinches it. But I’m always a little suspicious about binary alternatives. What might scenario C look like? Clearly we need more testing as that would eliminate the wiggle room.
But for those who want to blame Trump for our predicament I’d like to remind everyone that it is Fauci and Birks who every day say don’t need to get tested unless you are showing symptoms. I’ve never understood that unless, of course, it’s a rationalization in the face of being unprepared for doing so. (and then there’s this: if our system seems particularly unprepared, then why is the pattern the same in GB or Canada?
Also , why we were discouraged from using the garden variety face mask? (won’t protect you, droplets get through, etc.) Is that a lie? Is it a cultural aversion to common practice in Asia? (I suspect this may be the case). it is curious that the places who seem to have credibly arrested the virus’s spread (Taiwan, Singapore, S. Korean) are all in Asia. combination of testing and masks?
Then this: why were Asian countries prepared for mass testing and those in Europe and N. America not? cultural hubris in part, social focus on peripheral issues like identity politics, and lack of regular reminders that stuff like this happens. Asia seems to have learned the lesson of SARS but we did not
Yes agree C is always an option. It’s not like Martenson is gospel, but he presents a well-reasoned argument. And I agree, all numbers, good or bad, are pretty meaningless for a host of reasons discussed above, in the prior thread, and by Martenson. I think we all agree.
He is correct Scenario B would be better. But I argue that’s why people want to see it and believe it, but it’s not really supported. People want to see it for political reasons, economic reasons, or fear reasons. So they find some articles that do that.
Time will tell…I know that staying in has put less stress on hospitals. I don’t think it’s going to curb numbers in the long run.
Regarding Trump/Republicans, the worst part is they’re telling people to go back to work to save the economy. Putting economics ahead of lives is not a good look. If the elderly people in my family listen to that crap and die I’m going to be beyond pissed. You haven’t seen angry Angry yet!
Regarding masks: it’s not that masks offer great protection for the healthy it’s more making an assumption that EVERYONE is infected so 100% masking stops the spread. This is a good assumption since we don’t really know how early virus shedding starts and that some people never show symptoms. For a healthy person a masks greatest asset is probably that it keeps you from touching your face.
Trump and the Republicans wasted weeks calling this a hoax, ignoring experts and fretting about the DOW. They should have been testing at entry points, mobilizing PPE and manufacturing test kits. The response has improved but the past is undeniable. Hell just look at his Twitter feed or videos and it’s plain in his own words. They didn’t take it seriously and now thousands of Americans will die at a minimum. They still are not taking responsibility they are just trying to blame others. They failed.
Edit: Best guess on Asian preparedness is SARS and MERS hit them much harder.
Edit 2: He still isn’t taking it seriously, quote from fox news interview. “I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You know, you go into major hospitals, sometimes they’ll have two ventilators,” Trump said. “And now, all of a sudden they’re saying can we order 30,000 ventilators. So, look, it’s a very bad situation, we haven’t seen anything like it, but the end result is we gotta get back to work, and I think we can start by opening up certain parts of the country.”
We had over 17,000 reported new infections yesterday.
minor edit Nuke: Trump never called the virus a hoax; how, otherwise, to explain his travel ban from China and National Health Emergency declaration in January when officials in New York were telling people to go out and enjoy the Lunar New Year. They were the ones implying that Trump was overreacting and that the fear he was spreading was a hoax. Trump said the people blaming him for everything was hoax.
And like I said, if the US uniquely bungled this, because of Trump impliedly, then why are all the progressive regimes around us (Canada, EU, etc.) suffering as badly as us or worse.
Excerpt from his rally Feb 28th in South Carolina. Good enough for me.
Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus. You know that, right? Coronavirus. They’re politicizing it. We did one of the great jobs. You say, ‘How’s President Trump doing?’ They go, ‘Oh, not good, not good.’ They have no clue. They don’t have any clue. They can’t even count their votes in Iowa, they can’t even count. No they can’t. They can’t count their votes.
One of my people came up to me and said, ‘Mr. President, they tried to beat you on Russia, Russia, Russia. That didn’t work out too well. They couldn’t do it. They tried the impeachment hoax. That was on a perfect conversation. They tried anything, they tried it over and over, they’ve been doing it since you got in. It’s all turning, they lost, it’s all turning. Think of it. Think of it. And this is their new hoax. But you know, we did something that’s been pretty amazing. We’re 15 people [cases of coronavirus infection] in this massive country. And because of the fact that we went early, we went early, we could have had a lot more than that.
We should probably wait for the results before comparing to another country. I have a feeling those comparisons will not age well.
“For a healthy person a masks greatest asset is probably that it keeps you from touching your face.”
Anecdotally, the people I see touching their faces the most are people wearing masks. Although not Asians who seem more comfortable with them. But I see so many wearers who are constantly fidgeting with their mask.
I’m not a fan of the red hat, but if he insists on opening things back up a scenario where there are tiered levels, assuming it’s in conjunction with more testing capabilities, at least maybe throttles the effects of new cases with effects on the economy. The downside clearly is small communities who are possibly at lower risk, being further removed from metro areas, also have worse access to health care.
We definitely need more time for data. We had 3 states with 1000+ new infections yesterday and 7 with over 500 and 30 with less than 100. Every state is increasing it’s infection cases still. If curves hold were looking at 22000-25000 new cases today and something like 60k over the weekend. This virus is on a 7-14 day lag from exposure to symptoms and most states have not had more than a week of shelter in place/isolation type guidelines.
I totally agree there isn’t enough data. That Governor in Mississippi is a goof. I’m just saying that by April 12, there should be more data. And at least he is talking about a measured response as opposed to what seemed like an open the floodgates approach.
In two weeks we’ll see how exponential numbers crush NY city even in light of sheltering orders.
Some positive news out of NYC, where the rate at which new positive cases are doubling has at least slowed a little. Still pretty high numbers and too high for capacity, but hopefully a sign that they are on the downside of the initial surge already.
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1243567296125243393?s=19
That said, doubling is still bad, regardless of timeline. But hopefully a sign of some slowing.
One of the worst parts for people being treated with the more severe symptoms is the duration they need to be treated keeps them occupying facilities for a couple of weeks, leaving less room for new patients. If they can find a way to shorten duration of time in ICU, it would help a ton.
The danger in opening up targeted areas is you risk people traveling there from outside because things are open. E.g. maybe the malls are closed in Chicago, but you drive to Iowa because their malls are open. The way around this is closed state borders, which gives the opposite impression of what Trump is going for.
True enough. You see it already with people leaving NY City to smaller towns and not only risking those residents with possible infection, and where there are less medical services, but also overwhelming their other infrastructure, stores etc.
I’m just saying if the government is hell bent on easing things, people in Wheeler County Oregon are probably less at risk than people in Manhattan, NY.
Totally agree, but I’d like to see some numbers behind whether it would be worth it to the economy or not. Is rural North Dakota going to be driving recovery of the tourism, restaurant, and retail sectors?
Meanwhile, look at this garbage.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/why-coronavirus-deaths-are-higher-in-italy-spain-than-in-china.html
kinda off topic, but then not really. These two threads, and the ones to follow in their wake, could form, for some future historian, an interesting snapshot of the corona dynamic.
Shit load better than what my wife has been terrifying herself with on facebook hah
At least they are trying everything https://mobile.twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1242125378254184453
Nuke that’s awesome mix for dogs, did you get your dog from a breeder? Congrats on new baby
From a family friend who got some accidental puppies with his farm English lab haha. Imo two good farm dogs making puppies is gonna give you a pretty smart buddy.
The smart thing is not having accidental puppies.
Welll not from the dogs perspective haha
https://dnyuz.com/2020/03/26/sweden-keeps-schools-and-borders-open-in-huge-experiment-on-virus/
I saw this the other day. They have a big culturally element with public trust and civic responsibility. Gonna be a real test of that theory that I think is probably short sighted. They are one of the most educated societies on earth so maybe they know something everyone else doesn’t? Or maybe its just wayyyyy toooo muuucchhhh hubris.
Something stinks here, I’m not sure who yet. A supplier or the union.
https://mobile.twitter.com/timkmak/status/1243250615813378049
By the way these are masks that are around 75 cent or so a piece.
I seriously had no clue it was Thursday today… I thought it was Tuesday, maybe Wednesday.
Garbage day keeping me straight!
same here. I had to ask my wife what day it was.
two notes: Canadian Broadcasting had a story last night featuring a local health official who was complaining about a lack of medicines (generally, not in regard to the pandemic) and noted that the sources in China and India were titrating (I always liked that word) the supply for domestic requirements. This doctor said that North America must repatriate that capability.
2) remember that guy one of our contributors found who was watching Washington data (when it seemed to matter more than it does now, admittedly), when anyway last night Washington’s governor was displaying a chart showing the rate of infection in Washington vs. steeper climbs elsewhere. just sayin’
1) Definitely. One thing that has concerned me with the lack of care for PR is that a significant amount of the US pharma industry production resides, or atleast resided, there.
2) Not sure what data he was using (maybe acouple days behind or something?) But Washington reported 619 new cases yesterday which is a 20% increase. Probably just backlog testing but that’s a steep curve.
ps. dead cats on Wall Street today. called it.
Gotta test the lows.
three days of nothing but bad news until Monday morning; that’s when we’ll see a total rout.
Usually the washout is about 4 weeks after the bull trap (past 3 days)…might trade (relatively) sideways til then barring big news either way. Earnings could be a catalyst in that time period. We need to go 30% -40% lower. I’m not convinced it will happen due to investors’ love of central banks and belief that what they do works and everyone’s obsession to time an absolute bottom, but if we don’t the buyers are just buying a more expensive market than a month ago (-20% price drop / -80% earnings = more expensive despite the price decrease). They’d be buying momentum just like this past run. I think either can happen because of irrationality. Fundamentals say down, though.
I woke up today to see Bruce Arians doesn’t want me on the Bucs. I’m not a “good fit”…hmpf.
https://i.imgur.com/DWsapLS.jpg
That AB is way nuttier than any poster on this board, even when Jack was on a bender.
There is no need to spend money on a gun. Just step up and cough on an assailant.
You must have quick feet. If they are 20 feet away you need to load the loogie and have it fully cocked then clear 15 feet to have a good chance. What if they have a mask or a scarf? That might mean clearing 17 or 18 ft and you will need to take more time and care on the loading to verify your loogie gauge.
No. I figure if they’re after my waller they will be within my loogie radius. Think I’ll practice in the backyard today. Just to be sure.
I hear through the grapevine that the Boulder Inn in Lebanon (a 3 star Best Western Hotel, and my favorite for Beaver sports weekends) has been turned into a makeshift hospital. That sounds pretty ominous, and it is, but perfectly sensible since the property is owned by the medical school there.
Would make a lot of sense to have designated ICU buildings as opposed areas in a hospital.
GSRMC is reallocating/re-purposing ALL of their facilities (the SAM on campus at OSU, urgent cares, etc) I’m guessing in anticipation of an outbreak here.
It’d be ideal to have 3 buildings, keep a hospital clear of all possible covids, have a rule out building and a confirmed covid19 building. I’m not sure how practical that is though. I know Good Sam and AGH already have confirmed patients. I assume Lebanon does too but haven’t heard that directly, Lebanon is actually set up to isolate a couple Ebola patients, that hospital is actually really nice.
I think typically the triage would be a rent in a parking lot kind of deal.
Rule out goes beyond triage. Someone with corona symptoms needs 2 negatives 24 hours apart to be considered negative. Remember this is a test without a clinical trial to determine accuracy.
Line from Cuomo presser today, saying he makes his decisions based on data and science, not feelings or beliefs.
Amen. Wonder if we can get him to run our athletic department when this is all over.
https://twitter.com/ericcrawford/status/1243571495177256965?s=19
Link to the full presser in case anybody wants to scout our future AD.
https://www.pscp.tv/w/cUzQKHR3LTI5OTE1MTc3NDJ8MVprS3pMcXlCbldKdgHOID4fjelzsbJ139kZpKSVkKx4rkQhkMioNvtuGseZ?t=12m3s
Was reading they are hoping to start distributing these stimulus checks via direct deposit around April 8th. There’s the potential for that time line getting pushed back a little, but that’s much faster than I had anticipated.
Maybe a new thread idea. How do you all plan to stimulate the economy with these funds? Do you put it in savings for future rainy days? Or do you spend it immediately on trades that are most affected by the various governmental shutdowns? Or none of the above and spend it on hookers and blow in Vegas?
It won’t be the last check. MMT has now officially started.
In terms of how I spend this check, I purchased my dream guitar about a week ago (they’re rare and only come up every few years, so I had to pounce when it came up). It was quite expensive. Paid off half that day and financed the second half, but I’ll just pay it off the rest.
I want to redo our deck, so I’m between doing it myself and hiring someone. If the latter I might use it there and just keep the finance in place for the other.
Does anybody know if the stimulus payouts are considered taxable income? Don’t forget to hold off on some of that spending if it is. Tax time next year could be a mess.
Also, if you haven’t filed your 2019 taxes yet, that seems to be a key part in them knowing who to send payouts to, so might be a good idea to take care of that, or risk delays.
Not taxable.
I thought they were using 2018 tax filings since 2019 filing is pushed out anyway.
As with everything, there are multiple reports on how that will be handled. I’ve read in a WaPo article it’s based on 2019 filings. But I’ve also read it’s based on 2019 filings, unless you didnt file, then they look at 2018 filings. Then I’ve also read it’s only based on. 2018 filings. Anybody here who has read the actual bill who knows the right answer?
As a general rule, I would suspect the more steps they have to go through to process your payment, the slower it will take. So, my guess is those who have filed both years already will move towards the front of the line. But that’s all just my gut feeling and not evidence or fact based.
It doesn’t make sense to me that they’d use 2019, as tax day has been moved to July 15th. But not much the federal Gov does makes sense anyway so I wouldn’t be surprised.
They’re probably trying to use the most up to date information. They’re using 2018 info when 2019 isn’t available.
Technically, your eligibility depends on 2020 filing, but because that hasn’t happened yet, they’re using previous info as the next best thing. Some people will have to pay back a portion of their payment when they file 2020 taxes.
Donate a portion, save/invest a portion, then make some home improvements (working with local small businesses).
I want to give away a little bit but hoping to save for 20% down on a rental house investment property assuming housing prices see a drop in a year or so. I am a believer in the science behind climate change and think housing will be a good long term investment in the mild PNW climate, and a decent hedge on the coming inflation.
If you are in Oregon look at the new zoning law, makes many new options. Hb2001
Yeah, an extra big lot might have some value to add a granny flat some day. I was looking at a cheapish shotgun house on a postage stamp lot though, less than 200k for sure.
If you have land with room you can build a nice day for less than that.
With the government now essentially backstopping all mortgages through MBS purchases, private investment funds will continue buying up housing once liquidity returns. Rental housing should be a decent investment if you can buy at the bottom. Maintenance (especially on older properties) is what has always scared me away.
Yeah, I was thinking like 10 to 15 year old house so I can defer maintenance into the future. Of course with the quality of these shotgun homes maintenance might be a big issue.
Ean, you mentioned stocks above for inflation, and real estate here. While they are better than dollars, they don’t do great in high inflation.
With real estate there are obvious issues (jobs, illiquid, etc…check out exeter’s pyramid). With stocks they are dollar denominated, so any dividend you get is wiped out before you get it. They might go up in nominal terms, but will buy nothing. It’s the problem with everything but hard assets. I do think in this inflation real estate will do okay because you’re basically shorting the dollar taking on a mortgage at 3% (will totally be wiped out by inflation). But you might have a hard time finding a renter and/or selling it. So make sure you can pay that 2nd mortgage or find an income generating use for that property should you find no renter. Realize also everything associated with the house hyperinflates, including maintenance, property tax, etc. Again, makes it a so-so hedge. I prefer other things like food, guitars, sneakers, clothing, guns, ammo, water, etc. Any day to day good you can get cheap today is a great hedge. Gold will do well, but I like other things more. Only currency I put into gold or silver is purchasing power I won’t need for 30 years or more.
If you find different data let me know, but everything I have read on hyperinflation in other Countries is that sure, the stock market and real estate go up in nominal terms, but they don’t necessarily increase or maintain purchasing power. Even the move in the SPY500 the past ten years has had that where it simply tracked inflation at 8% (this is the real inflation per shadow stats, as measured by the 1970s methodology before they removed everything that rises in price).
I think we get deflation before the hyperinflation, btw. Milkshake Theory. We’re in that phase now. The more you see checks direct to the people the more the timeline for the hyperinflation grows nearer.
Not getting a dime, and certainly not complaining.
Hookers and hookers.
I’m not interested in cocaine, and this social distancing REALLY has to be hurting the sex industry right now…
“How do you all plan to stimulate the economy with these funds? Do you put it in savings for future rainy days? Or do you spend it immediately on trades that are most affected by the various governmental shutdowns? Or none of the above and spend it on hookers and blow in Vegas?”
That’s a good question actually. We’re told to stay home, so how can it best be used to stimulate the economy? Order meals delivered? Order anything on amazon? Something like 70% of the economy is consumer spending(?), right? So many people in service jobs hurting, and if this goes for months, they’re really going to struggle. If I get take out lately, I tip extra.
Trump Bucks go out by April 8, and like Christ, he wants the economy to rise by Easter…so get out there and spend!
I’m hoping to hire a contractor for home improvements, and hoping that helps someone out if I can find someone.
I got a quote on a small 18x10ft deck today, and the guy wants 8k. lol.
Is everyone doing home improvement?
I’ll just build it myself. F that.
We should all pool our brainpower together and figure out what everyone will buy once this is over. Then we can invest in it. Airlines?
Stuff consumers will by or stocks people will buy?
Same thing, really. But either.
Wonder which one of these video chat services will become the market leader? So many people are jumping onto the Zoom bandwagon right now, but there are at least a dozen other options all fighting to grab a bigger share of the market right now.
(Skype, Teams, Messenger, OOvOO, Hangouts, etc…)
The thing I dont know is how profitable these services are? I’d imagine the one that can prove to be most user friendly and accessible across all platforms will come out on top. After that, they’ll find a way to add on free vs pay features and advertising revenue to become more lucrative. Data/Call privacy needs to be a huge concern in this industry, but it’s definitely an industry that is taking off right now.
My wife is even doing her monthly book club on zoom tonight because of social distancing.
Wow, that’s a nice chunk of change. I feel guilty accepting it, only because my employment status hasn’t and won’t change because of Covid19. But I guess the best thing I can do with it is spread it around to people affected the most around my community.(angrybeavs donation included)
I was just reading on Bloomberg that the Treasury is technically the one buying MBS, corporate bonds, etc. because the Fed can’t legally do so. Essentially the Fed is acting as the Treasury’s banker, but it will be the Treasury that has financial liability. So we’re legitimately nationalizing credit markets now and the head of these efforts is the POTUS. Look for a market rally around election time.
That’s unsettling.
That’s exactly right, and why above I said MMT has begun. MMT can only be done through the Treasury. FED can’t legally send anyone a check. They’re basically in cahoots now. These won’t be the last checks.
Barton of Barton Options was the first to point out that Mnuchin can circumvent the FED and force their hand on Real Vision over a Month ago. Genius observation. It’s worth watching that interview.
Anecdotal from 5 friends at Saint Charles in bend. Most of the federal supplies are expired.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/feds-send-supplies-stockpiles-items-expired-officials/story?id=69770784
Yeah if anyone wants to use some of their check as a yearly AB donation that link is on the page (contact/donate).
Hosting isn’t due until 2021, but I could always negotiate a rate with the host this year and extend that if I get funds to do it. The monthly donors are very nice, too, and make me want to put more time in here, so if you can donate monthly/recurring please do. Even a couple bucks adds up.
Small study in China shows COVID targets testicles. Average age of subjects was 38 and they averaged 50% lower testosterone after testing positive. Study concludes this could lead to erectile dysfunction, infertility, and breast enlargement.
So if the “we all have COVID” crowd are right…long Duck merch sales.
How small a study we talking? Peanuts? Grapes? Strawberries?!?
81 people
Syd Wiese just announced on the Joe Beaver Show she tested positive for COVID-19. Said she’s feeling ok and the symptoms are already disappating, but she’s continuing to self-quarantine for the time being.
It’s officially the end times, I like John Kerry a marginal amount all of a sudden.
https://theweek.com/speedreads/905225/john-kerry-affirms-gop-rep-massie-tested-positive-being-sshole-after-derailing-stimulus-bill
Haha.
What a fucker.
Wow, why would someone sabotage their career like that? Not only that, but he and his family are going to be ridiculed and publicly shamed. What does he stand to gain?
Well, he’s famous now! John Kerry called him an asshole afterall.
Judging by his Twitter he’s one of those government shouldn’t spend money for any reason types making a fuss.
Check out Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie): https://twitter.com/RepThomasMassie?s=09
Why am I not surprised that douche is from KY?
I have a theory the Republicans have a plan in place to rig the election, even if Trump loses. This would explain their hubris. Dems better be ready for the party of evil geniuses, because they have something up their sleeve.
e.g. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/what-if-he-wont-go/606259/
Well when voter suppression and gerrymandering fail better just go autocrat.
Yeah but saying that in a snarky way does nothing. They will try to rig this.
American is in a lot of trouble due to Trump. Not just his disregard of law but the court system. He very likely gets 3 judges when Ginsberg dies any second. As a moderate I can see the reality of the situation.
Dems hate him and love pointing out the logical errors in (R) thinking. Republicans love beating Dems and calling them snowflakes. But there’s huge danger in that rift between the civilians/parties. This is why under no circumstance will I vote for him, despite doing so last election and being conservative in terms of fiscal and monetary policy (socially indifferent).
Hopefully people like myself with no affiliation to any party can pull this out and buy some time for both butthurt parties to deal so we get more sane candidates in ’24.
Yikes, Angry. Leave the conspiratorial politics to Jack. This lockdown is driving you mad.
?
There’s a legit and clear path to it, as described in the article. Academics worldwide are concerned. That’s a conspiracy?
Everyone knows academics hate Trump. You can’t appeal to their authority on this one. There’s a complete lack of evidence that this is being considered.
Enough conservatives respect the constitution to recognize the error in Trump extending his term, and it would be political suicide for the GOP to support it. The country may be very polarized, but the largest section is still the middle and the GOP would easily lose the Senate for supporting something like this. Not to mention the fresh wave of opposition from inside the Swamp it would inspire.
You’re right Angry. Somtimes I deal with abject horror with humor. Also 100% valid concern and yes a real possible path to ignoring election results.
The same thing was said about obama, but the libs were calling anyone who said that a conspiracy nut. Now all of a sudden it’s not a conspiracy its totally super cereal? Lol sure.
Were they? Well that’s good.
Thing is I can’t see Obama doing that, whereas I can see Trump doing it.
The GOP are completely inept. Remember the 2016 primary? They’re impotent.
People said the same stuff about Obama. It’s just party folks trying to drum up support for their said by fearmongering.
They’re so inept they won the white house despite losing the popular vote. This is the mindset that resulted in them winning in ’16 and gives them the odds in ’20.
My prediction is Biden wins, but Trump finds some loophole to remain. Very likely. Especially if Ginsberg dies and he gets a 3rd judge.
Great, they won a closely contested election. The electoral map just aligned in their favor, which doesn’t prove anything.
The GOP didn’t win. Trump did. They fought him the whole way and he won on his own merit. You really think any of the other GOP candidates would have beaten Hillary?
To the DNC’s credit, they were at least able to successfully sabotage their anti-establishment candidate (twice!)
Yeah if anything I’d argue the Dems are inept in failing to nominate Bernie in ’16 or find someone better than Biden in ’20…
Though I do think he has a better shot at Trump than Bernie would this time around. Biden should win due to moderates like myself fed up with Trump. I just don’t think Trump leaves office.
Biden’s the worst major party candidate in a long time. The only thing he has going for him is that people associate him with Obama. His best chance at winning is to nominate a moderate VP that swing voters like, especially because his mental state indicates he may not be able to last for four years completely fulfilling his duties.
you’ve got the dynamic reversed Angry. A healthy country would never have elected someone like Trump in the first place. He’s a symptom, not the cause.
Good point.
Remember when he said he’d call for an investigation after the elections, because, truth be told, he didn’t expect to win, then it never happened? He’d demand one if he loses this time. He’d be unhinged on the sidelines…
People tend to forget we are a young country relative to many countries in the world. Many countries have had their versions of Trump in their past, we finally have ours. How do we proceed?
Looking to European government and their trajectories, I’m not optimistic that we’re going to return to a government where people work across the aisle and compromise, democracy is protected, and free speech is respected. The loss of those attributes is bad for everyone.
The Rs have made a deal with the devil and that’s going to be difficult to unwind, unless they find a leader who is moderate and can pull them back gracefully into the fold. The Dems have a lot to account for too, but I have to say I am shocked at how many Rs have apparently been bullied by Trump and/or sold out. If they’re not sycophants, they’re chastised on social media by Trump and his family in manners both immature and deplorable.
Both parties lack strong leadership. In the 2016 elections, I was disappointed that we were back to a Clinton, a Bush, and then Trump. Really, 300+M Americans and we’re still recycling Clintons and Bushes (Bushs?)?!? But think about since the 60’s how much the Kennedys, Bushes, and Clintons have dominated the political landscape.
There are genuinely good people out there, they just can’t afford to play the presidential election game.
Well said.
He has a constituency that votes for him base on his reputation for being in favor of small government. There are plenty of people who expressed public concern about the bill. This was a way for him to brand himself as the guy who stood up for his principles without actually having to do anything because he has any easy out for a quick 180. The most ideologically-driven congressmen on both sides do this kind of thing all the time.
Yes indeed, just a weird time to do a classic ploy. Its basically all Rand Paul does.
I went through a Ron Paul phase in ’11-’13. I love that he hates the FED. He is spot on with that. But what a piece of shit otherwise.
I later realized he’s completely delusional and thinks donations, churches, and goodwill will help the poor. I grew up poor. I relate to the poor, even if I’m not poor now. There is no fucking way any of that happens. The reality is life as a poor person absolutely blows and you have stress every second of every day. There is no way any poor person with dignity wants to be on welfare or anything else, but we were grateful to have it and get through rough times, and we grew out of it to find wealth due to work and ironically not wanting to be on welfare, despite what these fuckheads say.
So fuck Ron Paul and his ivory toward delusions. Rand is even worse. Hope he dies from Corona. That hypocritical bastard will fly to Canada and get socialized, Government health care. Seriously, fuck him.
I used to identify as a Libertarian, but I eventually realized it’s all about hyper-rational people fantasizing that everyone else is hyper-rational.
I also went through a period where I listened to Progressive radio every day going to work and realized my views aligned with 50% of what they said and were diametrically opposed to the other 50%. If we had more active political parties in this country and far-rights could form coalitions with far-lefts on issues where they had common ground, we would be in a much better place. It’s harder for people to accept they have common ground with others when the parties are such big amorphous blobs.
Angry, we’re you a Tulsi Gabbard supporter? She seems like she would have been up your alley.
I didn’t look into Gabbard much, TBH. (I guess that was her problem?).
There’s only so much time in a day.
Yeah, I went through phases, but would always listen to the other side’s arguments when doing that. Made me realize I’m simply a moderate. In an ideal world I’d be a rationalist, but in this system, I think you have to be moderate to prevent pulls to either extreme, because both are terrifying.
I went through that Libertarian phase. Parts of it are great. But they are all hypocrites at the end of the day. I view it as a luxury during good times. Kind of like vegetarians…yeah, you can be one while the shelves are stocked…
She’s mainline Democrat on quite a few things, but staunchly anti-war. She understands that the Fed is the driving force behind financial inequality and the US’s ability to wage eternal war and she’s in the Audit/End the Fed camp. She’s also a military veteran and still active in the National Guard, so she has an understanding of that part of foreign policy that most candidates didn’t.
Unfortunately, those aren’t issues that most voters care about and she wasn’t great in the debates (other than when she single-handedly ended Kamala’s campaign) so she didn’t get much traction.
Hopefully she runs again and I can pay more attention.
Joe beaver has been pretty good, if anyone is bored, they upload previous shows in podcast, it’s weird listening to old shows and reliving how everything unfolded these past couple weeks, also it’s always good to hear from DFT…
BTW, Angry was right. It’s Friday and we broke 500k. Of course the effect of the lock down won’t start to appear for maybe another week since most of the people testing positive now were infected prior to the lock down. The curve in Washington may be bending but the curve for the world is not…yet.
Yep, we will hit the millions next week. Probably over 1. I’m going 1.4, but 2 isn’t out of the question by April 3rd. It depends how many 20 year old douche bags cough on boomers because they resent them.
I went to Costco this morning and NO ONE was practicing 6 ft. I had to snap at 30 people. Is it denial, idiots or assholes? I have no idea.
They were mostly elderly, wondering if they are just tired if living.
I haven’t been to Costco since Feb 28th. Just before it all hit.
This is disheartening to hear. Guess I won’t go back for a bit. Or go during off hours.
Costco and Target are both bad from what my wife and I have heard. Safeway, while foods, Fred Meyer and most of the organic stores are doing a decent job.
Costco was sanitizing everything, metering and enforcing 6 ft last week, now it’s basically workers hiding and PPE and letting everyone run wild, weird. Wondering if they are understaffed to keep things going.
I’m starting to think we need a national guardsmen or officer in each store to be a dick about enforcing it.
Well that sucks. I have enough food for at least another month. Probably way more.
Maybe I’ll do a drive by and scout it out.
Amazon’s whole foods delivery has been very good. Reasonable prices for high quality food and delivered by really nice people. Used it twice just to get a few extra things, and they were awesome.
my wife refuses to go to Costco for this reason. Try alts. like Fred Meyer, Safeway, Albertson’s, etc.
Get Costco delivered , if u can
There’s not much to order online. Slim pickings.
It’s actually worse than he was predicting, America steepened the curve more than expected.
As of now 592k confirmed infected, 101k US, 1, 27000 dead ww.550 deaths US. The US is doing the worst in the world by most measures except total deaths.
US today so far: almost 16k infected, 272 deaths.
Math is looking horrific.
It’s bad.
Late May/June we might see a leveling. Maybe…
I’m hoping we see it mellow out end of next week or the week after as we hit the 7-14 days of isolation and other intervention. If Italy is an indicator then it won’t help much.
We won’t.
Too many young, asymptomatic people being idiots. The South is about to become a disaster because of St. Patricks, Spring Break, and Mardi…it’s about to become the epicenter. Case #s are a lagging indicator.
“Too many young, asymptomatic people being idiots. The South is about to become a disaster because of St. Patricks, Spring Break, and Mardi…it’s about to become the epicenter. Case #s are a lagging indicator.”
Saw an article about a corona virus-themed party in Kentucky…surprise, an individual there had it.
mid to late April.
UW projecting the curve will bend down the third week of April
Let’s get a General Thread 3: Covid19 Strikes Back thread going. This one is grinding to a halt for me.
The speed? Seems fine. Upgrade your internet, brah!
I have the best internet in the world, no ones internet is better or faster then my internet. I hired only the best people to install it.
Tremendous internet?
Yes and Mexico paid for all of it.
If people have home improvement questions feel free to ask me. Grew up building and work as a structural engineer.
Flat roof (weird for oregon) with 2x12s at 16 on center for joists. They span 28 feet with a wall in the center for support. The outside walls of my house are 6 inch concrete from the footer all the way to the joists. It was built by a cold storage contractor in the 70’s. we would like to replace that center wall with a structural I beam or laminated beam to open up that living space. Looking for an architect or anyone else who may be able to help figure out plans for doing this.
What county are you in? I canfind you a designer or do it all myself (designers are a bit cheaper) but you will still need stamped engineering. I can do all the engineering either way or recommend a local firm that I know does good work.
Linn, home to grass seed and covid19.
Yeah shoot me an email at garrett@bantonengineering.com and I’ll get ya sorted.
Really I’d like to know what the cost of engineering something like this would be. I’m totally in the dark here. I know what the material end would be roughly.
Yeah it will vary a lot depending on who you use and the complexity of the project. I have to ask a fair amount of questions to even figure out if its a good idea for you to do that in the first place because it can be very hard to justify the shear envelope on a concrete house. It may or may not have rebar and the integrity of the concrete is a big deal. What you need is a planset with architectural drawings (demolition plan, floor plan, elevations) and a strutural planset (roof framing, floor framing and a shear diagram). The last three are called structural drawings and those are what require an engineering review. Its possible to do a project without an engineer using whats called prescriptive path but you have to meet all the requirements to pull that off. That might be possible if you put in enough posts on the roof beam.
Ball park on the architectural is $0.50-$7.0 a sqft depending on who you hire. A basic designer would be the low end. I’m $1.00-$1.50 depending on the complexity of the project. The engineering would be hourly and I really don’t know how much it would be without some questions back and forth to figure out if its economically feasible to do the project and to judge what kind of calculations I would need to do for design verification. I would guess it would be in the $600-$1500 range for the engineering and you can ballpark some architectural drawings using the square footage.
If you shoot me an email I can check the feasibility for free and give you an estimate for both the architectural and engineering. If I think you can get by without an engineer I will just tell you what that might look like.
Sydney W. Just tested positive
Slut.
?
So kind of on topic and bizarre, but I’m a first time home owner since last year, and this is our first Spring dealing with a lawn. We decided on sheers and a manual mower (cardio plus environmentally friendly!)…I ordered some highly rated ones on Amazon. Look what showed up. That’s the brand name and their slogan. You have to be F’ing kidding me!
https://i.imgur.com/DWUirOx.jpg
Nice knowing ya…..
King 5 TV in Seattle has posted a chart that shows the trend lines, by state, for the outbreak. Washington’s curve is noteworthy. Actually, California too. NYS, not so much. But then, they had a good time celebrating the Lunar New Year there at the encouragement of the local health department. And Trump is the only doofus.
Leaders get the biggest pile of Doo doo when the country is leading the pandemic stats.
Hey Nuke, if you have time, look up and link to the chart at UW institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation. Peak date is April 14th in Washington. Total projected death count by August 3 in the US is 81,114. This is the stuff the governor is seeing.
I’ll peak when I get a chance.
By the way, I used to post on conservative websites and tried to warn those dingbats that Trump was a wolf in sheep’s clothing. He was a registered Democrat most of his life, loves low rates, clearly knew the economy was a bubble via his 2015 tweets, etc. He’s now the biggest socialist in history. Lol. Joke is on them, as I knew it would be. The fact is the math mandates any President be a socialist, else society collapses — including your job, which is being funded either directly or indirectly by government checks, so think twice before bashing welfare.
You can put Ron Paul in there and day 2 he’d be printing 10 trillion.
Trump handing out checks and nationalizing the means of production via FED printed money. Yikes…
Make Russian policies great again?
The only positive is that many academic eggheads suggest socialism when practiced in a democratic way is a higher state of mind that leads to higher happiness??? So they say. In eggheads we trust? We shall see. Either way calibrate for it both financially and mentally, because it’s going to be quite a change. This path has zero to do with dems or reps and is solely the Federal Reserve. Having a central bank guarantees socialism.
It’s also funny how many Republicans support socialist policy when their stocks drop. This is valid:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/trump-socialism-and-coronavirus-epidemic/607681/
https://mises.org/power-market/trumps-road-socialism
Many many more. He’s a gigantic government Socialist. Why doesn’t the Right see this?
Cause its in their personal interest perhaps?
Because once you can lie to yourself, you can lie to anyone?
Not a call out but. Every country has this virus now, there is no stopping it. The second someone infected left wuhan it was over. What would you have done in this situation? You let everything collapse and we’d look like Venezuela in no time. Or you go about your business and grandma can figure it out on her own?
Completely close the borders without exception. Not popular and you would leave a lot of people stranded (I guess they’d have to quarantine in the embassy wherever else they were in the world), but stranded travelers sacrificing in this way is way less harmful than what’s going on now.
Everyone’s getting cabin fever.
I can only deal with one fever at a time.
Tom Petty is a national treasure.
British Columbia Health Department also now reporting a bending of the curve. This social isolation stuff appears to be working where it was applied first.