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Ranking the 2023 Recruiting Class

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Okay, as always, my ratings work like this: I break it down by star rating, and then within that group, I’ll rank them in order. So the second listed 3 star is my second favorite 3 star. Etc.

When I began going through this class, I thought Smith might have taken a quantum leap because every guy seemed to be ranked one star too low, but that changed around the Saez/Taylor range, and the class began to fade. But it’s still a really nice top heavy group who are probably ranked too low by the services.

Give me your thoughts on these guys. Put it in writing. Also let me know where you think I went wrong and why.

*****

Aidan Chiles – Smith did a great job addressing the QB problems in this class. Chiles is ranked as a 4-star, but that’s only because he signed with Oregon State. He’s a legit 5-star talent. Why? Well amazingly quick decision making, correct decision making, very good to excellent arm, viable runner, and great accuracy. Chiles had an amazing 73.4% completion percentage in high school, and a 38 to 5 TD to INT ratio his senior year. I’m the guy obsessed with QB efficiency, so of course I’m going to rank him a 5-star with those numbers. The guy is flat out legit.

Kelze Howard – Again, why only a 4-star? The OSU down bump. USC, Michigan, Oregon et al offers. Even better, on film he’s a complete monster. He looks like Lawrence Taylor just completely destroying the backfield. Sure, they are highlights, but you can see on film he has intensity and thrives off making those negative plays. Even the way he lines up. He is fidgeting just waiting to get to the QB. Total monster. Great in the run game on film, too. Complete player. Should play next year barring any setbacks or problems learning the defense, but physically, he is ready.

****

DJU – I only have him as a 4-star due to his performance vs some of the better defenses he’s faced, and maybe the mental aspect of his game isn’t completely refined yet. I think he might be a bit underrated as a runner. Really good runner and cutting ability for his size. Top 5 arm nationally. The Beavers should be able to have their QB throw the long ball and run on any given play, which is obviously huge. One yellow flag was his taunting on film, but given his comments on how he reached out to the staff, it quelled some of that. Shows maturity to be thinking about his future and best fit for his pro career. For me he’s a very high 4-star and possible dark horse Heisman candidate next year given that Smith is going to make him become mature (if he’s not already), and that Smith’s going to design the offense around his skill set rather than try to force the issue like Clemson seemed to do.

Montrel Hatten – Why is Hatten at 3-star at the recruiting sites? He’s at worst a 4-star, and maybe a 5-star. This is a clear NFL caliber player. He can get open with ease and make every catch, good speed, love how he cradles the ball into his body using hands. Looks like a taller Branden Cooks and even looks a bit like Jerry Rice. Come on. 3-star!?

***

Leonard Ah You – Mission guy who we might never see, but boy does he look very good. Fast, aggressive, finishes plays. I just can’t get excited because this guy playing at OSU is a long way’s off, if ever.

Tastean Reddicks – Solid all around player. He seems to make the plays he should and nothing more. I’d say he doesn’t stand out as excelling at any one skill but also doesn’t stand out as having any flaws in his game. I question the 6’1 height…he doesn’t look or play that tall (unless all the DBs he’s facing are tall).

Isaiah Chisom – To me he’s in between a linebacker and safety, but that opens some options to get creative. Could be used as a hybrid player. I like him most as a hard hitting safety (who clearly excels at the delayed blitz on film) if Smith is willing to make that conversion.

Cooper Jenson – Hard to find good film on him, and I don’t know where Smith will play him. TE would be best, but in his film he looks pretty good as a RB, too. Maybe he’ll be used as a Christian McCaffrey type player from the TE slot? Could be unique. His diverse skills make creativity an option here.

Jermod McCoy – This guy is underrated. He’s intense as a WR and has ball skills, and as a DB he’s a ball hawk with great awareness. I think his best chance to see the field is as a DB. Promising player. I think he’s equal to the guy below, Zack Card. Similar players, and that’s a good thing.

Zack Card – I really like this guy. Not the flashiest recruit, but I see a guy with a lot of heart. Someone who will make the tough catch or tackle (depending where he ultimately lands) and fire up the team. He plays with a chip on his shoulder, and it somehow shows on film. I love guys like this. They eventually become team captains and great leaders. He’s fairly rated as a mid-upper 3-star, but guys who play intense like this are always better than the sum of their parts and could outperform. The same goes for McCoy. Card reminds me of a faster Wayne Chrebet.

Zakaih Saez – Underrated. Really nice looking pass rusher. Pushes the defender into the backfield and collapses the pocket while maintaining an obsessive focus on the target – the QB. Great foundation to build on, and by his Sophomore or Junior year he should be in the rotation.

Nikko Taylor – I don’t know Smith’s plans for Taylor. Sticking at DE? Call me crazy, but I think Taylor would make a better safety than edge rusher. He doesn’t finish some of his plays, and he doesn’t seem to show the fire or intensity you want to see out of pass rushers. Meanwhile, he has a great frame and body type to be a physical safety. I see only productive depth here if he sticks at DE, not a starter or a game changer. Not bad to have productive depth, though, so he’ll be a useful player.

Andre Piper-Jordan Jr. – Looks like a depth player. I’m not saying he looks bad, but I’m not seeing anything elite that stands out. He does appear to like playing physical, so that’s a plus. I like him more as a CB than WR. That physicality could be nice in the secondary. At this point I see a guy who will provide depth most of his career and maybe start or play more key roles as an upperclassman. Solid depth, though. There’s nothing bad in his game just nothing special.

David Wells – There’s really nothing wrong with his game. All around solid looking player with good hands. Should be a very good special teams player at worst, but possibly work into the WR rotation. A guy like this is tough. Nothing stands out either way other than his solid hands, so maybe put him on punt returns/ST and let him work his way up.

Jacob Anderson – Needs to get a bit lower on blocks and use leverage. Seems like a good frame but a project.

Thomas Collins – Really hard to analyze Swedish football, but his frame, intensity, and form all look good. But when I see him dominating the line, it looks like the opponents are really small (and terrible) for O-linemen. Low 3-star but there’s a lot of variance with this guy.

**

Abraham Johnson – Seems a step slow, but I think he’s my favorite of the two stars guys. Might be able to beef up and be a slow, run stuffing DT who is in the rotation for depth.

Zander Esty – Not a huge fan of this guy. I hope I’m wrong. But he looks slow, un-athletic, and plays upright. He does serve a lot of pancakes, so there’s that…maybe he can grow into something, but right now I see a practice squad player.

Harlem Howard – Again, not seeing much here other than a practice squad player. Looks small and slings guys to the ground rather than tackles them. Poor form. Not a great frame to build upon. My hunch is he has a Champ Flemings type trajectory and wins up at a smaller, lower level school eventually.

Grant Starck – I’m not sure what the staff sees here. I don’t see it. I hope I’m wrong. I don’t even think this is a good depth/backup pick. There has to be a better use of this scholarship. But, if anyone can turn this guy into a player it’s coach M. My only hope is on that.

Oregon State NLI Signing Day

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NiceBeaver said no surprises expected, but you never know. Let’s hope the momentum continues into the recruiting cycle, and we can pull something off.

Once we get the signings, I’ll do previews and give my rankings over the coming days.

Go Beavs!

Season Wrap Up

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Just some quick thoughts as I’m heading out on freezing cold bike ride in a few, but I really want to focus on a few things here, mostly Smith and the QB situation.

Smith:

– He made progress. He punted a few times where I thought he’d be a lunatic and go for it. He did make some really poor calls on 4th down, but overall there was some progress. Hopefully he continues to figure out the math and realize that those stats are skewed by (a) good teams going for it more (b) entirely different sets of players than what you have and (c) entirely different game scenarios. Just because the probabilities of generic 4th and 1 are X, doesn’t mean the probability of your 4th and 1 are X. In fact, it’s not, and never will be, completely equal. So figuring out the true odds and having a good gut or feel for the game is important. He still sucks in this regard, but I saw small improvement. There are definitely 4th downs to go for, and I don’t want to him to lose the ability to see those, just to gain the ability to see the ones not to go for. He needs more refining still. Also needs to spot superior talent earlier in the year. I had Martinez and a few other guys pegged as the obvious best players, and it took Smith like 3 games to spot them all.

– Completely non-football related, but I think Smith needs to lose some weight. He’s clearly eating well after this contract increases, and I’m concerned about his long-term health and ability to remain on the sidelines unless he begins to watch his weight. Look at Smith when he started at OSU 5 years ago, and look at him today…not good.

– Ben Gulbranson. This is pasted from the prior thread: Something I’m seeing a lot in the thread and mentioned a lot on ESPN, is BG is 7-1 as a starter. Great. But it’s like baseball: sabermetrics, thankfully, has finally proven that a pitcher’s wins are worth nearly 0 (unless he pitches a shutout maybe). If people want to talk about BG in a positive light, look to his very good 62.2 career completion %, a respectable 9 to 5 TD to INT ratio, etc. Just like pitchers are now rightfully judged off k/9, b/9, era, etc, QBs have to be judged on the things in their control, not team stats. Wins are almost always team stats. They’re also arbitrary. What if Gebbia started yesterdays’ game as a token gesture, played 1 snap, and then BG replaced him? Gebbia would get the win as a starter. So we need to ditch that completely. What is important with BG is he played with the most confidence every yesterday after a long break, which makes me think over those weeks waiting for the bowl something clicked. This happens. E.g. many times I’ll practice guitar every day, and make little progress, but then put it down for a week, pick it up, and suddenly there’s a leap. It’s just the way brains work. They need down time to rewire. I’m thinking something like this happened with BG the way he played yesterday. Unfortunately we can’t test it until next season, but the positive is there’s a lot of both practice and down time between now and then for this to happen again and again. He could come back really good.

– Just want to comment briefly on the other coaches. Coach M, clearly a great job. Bray…I was a big fan of that hire and he was the guy I wanted to see get that job. That was mostly due to the game plan, player attitudes, the loose vibe, and aggressive yet calculated style that I saw in the few games he did as the interim DC. More specifically, I love the safety and corner blitzes. It’s a completely underutilized play in college football. Love that we finished more plays as the season went on. Just a great job by both line coaches.

– Back to the QB situation: is Chiles willing to red shirt and wait a few years if BG does continue his progression?

– As mentioned in the prior thread, I was the only media to call for a special season and 9-3 as the most likely outcome. I saw all this building over the past few years, and how they were so close in prior games. Just needed more seasoning and Smith to get out of the way a bit. Both happened. Yes, I’m patting myself on the back because nobody else does. People criticized me for the Riley stuff, but I wanted higher highs and new we could do it. Nobody came back to say I was right or apologize. So, I have to pat myself on the back. It’s fine, I’m flexible.

– We need a new Colletto. When Kord Shaw was drafted, I thought he had a really similar skill set and would eventually fill that roll. Let’s see. That’s my guess. Someone has to step up and do it. It’s an important roll that got us a few wins.

– I’d like to see Colletto come back and coach after his stint in the NFL ends. I’d like to see Gebbia on the sideline next year as a GA. My hunch is Smith loves him and will offer that. The fact Smith put him in the game yesterday demonstrates that. He was a great captain, great leader, and sucked up his badly dealt hand beautifully. Gebbia could even be groomed to one day take over for Smith. They have similar mindsets and career trajectories as QBs, outside of their recruiting rankings. But both undersized guys with big hearts, leadership, and bright football minds. In 15 years when Smith is ready to stop reliving his youth over and over (and that’s what he’s doing by coaching in Corvallis), Gebbia would be a good guy to look at, if he wants and pursues that career path.

Alright, off to ride. Feel free to discuss all of this and anything else.

Go Beavs!

Las Vegas Bowl – Oregon St vs Florida (Game Thread)

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The more I think about this game, the more I’m not digging the -9.5 spread. That everyone loves the Beavs in this game makes me think it will be closer than everyone thinks, despite that Florida has the well known issues with their roster. Their backups are probably really athletic and competent, if not inexperienced. So I’m thinking this will be an ugly game, ala the 2008 Sun Bowl vs Pitt. Probably not that ugly, but I’m lowering this way down to 20-14, Beavs. I’m thinking Gulbranson is the likely problem, and Martinez will likely find running on Florida backups more difficult than Pac starters. But we should have enough to win, and the players are hungry for this 10th win. This game means more to the Beavs than the Gators. Perfect setup for Colletto to be a factor in this one and walk off into the sunset with a MILF or two on his arm.

20-14, Beavs.

Go Beavs!

Las Vegas Bowl (Game Week)

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Sorry guys, I got really bogged down with other things the past week.

I have the Beavs 38-17 in this one.

Go Beavs!