Home Football Oregon State @ Cal (Game Week)

Oregon State @ Cal (Game Week)

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This is a tricky game. Cal isn’t good, but they’re not bad, either. On the road, I think this one stays closer than it should be. I think DJU will be more efficient, Smith will blow an extra point, and it will lead to the Beavs winning but not covering.

27-21 Beavs.

299 COMMENTS

  1. Cal played AT North Texas? And we thought our scheduling was bad…

    They must have the hardest next 5 weeks in the country:

    OSU
    @Utah
    USC
    @Nike
    Washington State

    • Beavs win by 3 touchdowns and remain focused. Cal offense is a paper tiger and their defense is much worse than prior years. Should be a steady diet of run dominant offense for the Beavs.

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        Cal defense is intriguing to me. Wilcox is a good coach and they’ve done well against inferior opposition. They got absolutely torched by Washington. They haven’t really played an offense like ours and I’m concerned about this becoming a game DJU has to win because they’ll commit to stopping the run. On the other side, Ott is a boom or bust kind of running back. This feels like a game where Oladapo is going to be needed to stop the run.

        This feels like a trap game on the road. If Cal plays above average and we get caught sleeping on the road in an empty Cal stadium, I could see this being the game that derails our season. DJU needs to step up. I could see us trailing most of the game, then winning on a late drive with a screen pass or some kind of play to get Bolden/Gould in space.

        20-17 Beavs

  2. Holy Shit, I just saw where LSU gave up 706 yards of offense to Ole Miss. I’m thinking Speights never imagined this outcome when he transferred!

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    Concerns – depth on D line. Rawls out in first half is big. Also, concerned with missed tackles and blown coverage. Both continue to be issues. We got lucky a few times vs Utes because QB as incredibly inaccurate. Finally, Cal will have a great game plan to stop our run and force DJU to beat them. He continues to concern me.

    That said, Cal has no home field advantage and I think we will win a closer than expected contest 20-17.

    • It has been a bad year for them.

      Whittingham should be particularly concerned about QB recruiting. Rising has been there like 9 years and they don’t have a QB that looks remotely ready for show time.

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      QB was injured on that brutal hit by Hart that got him ejected. He was hospitalized even, which is not surprising given he was speared in the midsection by a goddammit helmet at a pretty decent rate of speed. That was a stupid, dirty hit.

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        Dirty? Y’all soft. It’s not like he was laying on the ground and was hit 5 seconds later, or horsecollared after scoring a TD, or chop blocked like SC used to do on the regular…it was a football play where he stupidly had his head down

        You never would have survived the 90s let alone the 70s or 80s.

      • It was a dumb play, which could have finished the same way without the ejection. It leaves a good team, that we beat, worse off for the season; will make the win look less good if it costs them a game or two. Same for the Beavs regarding the ejections.

        • I don’t think anyone is complaining about the ejection. It’s a fair call.

          It’s just a dumb play.

          Ascribing intent, like dirtiness, is pretty extreme. Players do dumb things, when their numbers are called.

          • Right. For example, the play could have finished with the defenders eyes up and a stout shove to the chest (or solar plexus if he must) to continue with the defensive tone and eliminate the ejection. Spearing is dumb.

  4. I think the strategy on defense will be the same as last week: stuff Ott, pressure Jackson, push the receivers around. I don’t think losing Rawls and Hart for a half will be a big deal.

    Last year we didn’t run a whole lot of rollouts/TEs to the flat vs Cal. Might see that this weekend.

    Beavs 24-10

  5. This week certainly feels like a trap game ala Stanford last year. Late night road game in northern california. Some big key differences as BG got his first start and DM wasn’t the starting RB yet.

    Beavs need to start out hot. I’m not sure this team is built to make late game heroics.

  6. I think this game needs to be a clinic focused on tackling and finishing on the pass rush. Both are poor, and both can really cost the Beavers starting @ CSU and continuing through the end of the season.

  7. Very interesting that Barnes was contacted by UW and is not pursuing the job. I highly doubt he would shut the door to UW if he knew OSU was headed to the MtWest.

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      Maybe he’s more honorable then we think? And did you catch wilners article about the UW president saying they never asked for 50mil from espn yet every other presidents said that it did happen. She sounds like a nightmare to work with.

    • 18

      I’m kind of surprised I’m saying this but I’m quite thankful that Barnes is sticking around and wants to see this thing through. About the last thing we need right now is more instability from having to hire a new AD.

  8. 10

    Could it be he honestly wants to see the realignment through? At 61, with a recent health scare, why ever would he want to be at UW, in a new conference? And maybe, just maybe in the crap world that is now college athletics, he has a sense of loyalty and caring.

  9. Watched a replay of the bolden touchdown run. It was a great play call. I had been calling for a DJU sneak with a push thinking nobody could stop it. Utah was ready and played it well. After that I was wondering if they had some kind of trick play out of it since Utah completely sold out and then they did it. Hats off to Velling who pulled and had a nice block on the only guy that could’ve made a play.

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    DJU has a completion percentage of about 58% which is about 85th in the nation. He really needs to improve to around 65 to be able to beat some of the tougher teams left on the schedule. He played decent last game asid from the bad interception.

    • I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but he’s well below average on PFF in passing grade under pressure. Utah was obviously keying in on that and I don’t expect defenses we play in the coming weeks to be any different.

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      I think his completion rate would definitely be higher if our WR’s would friggin catch the ball that is hitting them right in the hands, chest, and face. The only reliable WR is Bolden. TE’s are dropping balls, Gould is dropping balls… and the list continues. Yes DJU has had some bad throws under pressure but all the drops by our receivers are killing us.

      • One half of the equation and definitely doesn’t help matters but he’s been missing a lot of throws. Last game wasn’t too bad and if the receivers caught the ball he would’ve been above 60% for the first time since I’ve Davis.

        • 11

          Seems to me his strong arm is both a blessing and a curse; he’s been able to mask poor mechanics but can’t reach his potential.
          His move to OSU is also blessing/curse; a fresh start but a new system to learn.

          Best case is he grows in the system with every game and both the play of receivers and decisions of Lindgren improve. I haven’t counted his number of plays, but it is less than 4 full games. Even with Sp/Fall camp he is still new to the system, is he intelligent enough to already grasp the whole playbook? The improvement vs Utah may, hopefully, indicate a trend toward improvement…..but it’s gotta come fast. Knock off the ints, pick up some yds on the ground, make the occasional 30+yd pass play and he’ll be fine. Just fine, no Heisman talk, but lots of W’s.

          • It’s the lots of W I care about.

            Niner was a 57% passer, and we won. Not all passes have to be completed. Sometimes, it’s just better to get on with the next play, instead of getting one yard and some extra bruises on your RB.

  11. Vegas settling at Beavs -9.5
    With Rawls and Hart out for the first half it is doubly important to get off to an early lead and limit Cals offensive plays.

    WSU still 3.5 dogs to UCLA………..what will we learn from that game? How much pressure will Cougs get on the freshman?

  12. Just poking around on the 247 site and noticed that Utah has a commitment from Zach Wilson’s little brother Isaac. He’s from Draper (south SLC) and is rated the 20th best QB prospect in the country. He might have a chance to start right away based on what we saw last Friday.

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    Wow, JS apologized in the presser for offending anyone with his made-up milking signal. The woke United States of America is moving from judging every word to now hand movements. Seriously ridiculous! Just laugh about it and move on… why milk it any further?

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      Because the Left half of America wakes up in the morning looking for ways to be offended. You will get down votes (as will I) by this same group of people on here. You can’t use the term Woke without offending them because the truth isn’t comfortable. They have taken the fun and humor out of everything except Trump, conservatives and Christians….There still fare game.

      • Oh shoot: I just realized Florence is in the left half….I’ll have to change my thinking and look for someone to offend me….and generally speaking that’s fairly hard to do in Florence. :-)

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        And the white su[premacists give them and everyone else a reason to tell the fake conservatives to fuck right off.

        Fake conservatives can’t even do their fucking jobs, let alone they’re just fucking white supremacists.

        Try again, loser.

      • “culture”
        whatever that means… definitely not a code word for organizations beginning and ending with a K.

        Wimpy victimology is the in thing, these days.

      • The sad part is that nobody complained but the modern gut instinct to anything funny is to immediately worry about who is going to be offended by it. Whether it’s some bible thumping inbred or some mentally ill tranny there will always be somebody offended by something.

        The funny part for me was that JS is a city kid so he went straight to the titties. Country kid would have gone with the milking a cow gesture. Funny as hell either way.

    • What are you talking about? Where is the “woke” outrage? You’re more upset about this scenario you manufactured than anyone was about Smith’s hand gestures.

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      Who are all these people you think are offended? It was funny. Not sure I saw anyone offended online or talked to anyone in person that was offended either. I think the point of JS apologizing was to get ahead of it, not for your imagined ‘woke’ boogeyman.

      There are more people in the world than you, and I, or maybe you haven’t heard. So while you and I and most others watching found it funny, some older generations, some ladies, and some more gentile folk, may find breast squeezing uncouth, that’s ok too. Freedom of thought is still ok, right?

      Or are you the type the farts loudly in a public space and then raises his voice to brag about it? Things happen in the moment, it’s ok to offer an apology and not be doing it to keep the boogeyman at bay.

  14. Looking on ASL website there is a sign for milk. But I can’t find a sign for “milk it”. Maybe JS will have created a new sign. Before you know it, sign interpreters will be including the “JS sign” in normal conversation.

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    Ultimately, the win this weekend was a great offensive showing against a very stout defense. Could have been better with many easy passes dropped, but still a good performance. I still won’t read into the defensive performance too much. Even though it is hard to admit, we played a shell of a Utah offense, who have been having pretty poor QB play. Still not convinced the terrible defense of the WSU game doesn’t rear its ugly head again eventually, especially during one of our road games, where this team the past three years has shown to often significantly regress and play down to competition ala Fresno St and Stanford last year, Colorado, Purdue, Cal in 2021.

    • Ultimately, another thing this team needs to accomplish to get to that next level is to play (roughly) the same on the road. The fact that this team is 14-1 at home over the last 3 years really sums it up. They’re a completely different team on the road.

      • I’d say the it is worth a review of circumstances for several of the recent road losses though.
        Going back to start of 2021 Beavs have lost 8 times on the road.
        2021
        @Purdue- 9 pt loss season opener but qb starter was a considerable question. Beavs had a chance until the fake punt/4th down decision.
        @ WSU- 7 pt loss, Nolan’s first road start, under lots of pressure, Nolan with 2 ints
        @Cal -14 pt loss, Beavs fumbled on first play from scrimmage and never recovered, Nolan 2 ints
        @Colorado-3 pt loss OT, Nolan 1 int, miracle 60 yd fg to go into OT
        Tim Tibesar is fired after this loss…
        @Oregon- 9 pt loss, Ducks controlled the game, Nolan 1 int
        2022
        @Utah- 26 pt loss, Nolan hurt in 2nd quarter, 2 ints(pick 6), BG first action-2 ints(2 in red zone) competitive but mistakes take their toll
        @UW- 3 pt loss, extreme windy conditions, may have favored OSU, Beavs with 2 missed opportunities early catch up to them late, couldn’t hold the lead and lose on a late fg drive by Penix
        2023
        @WSU- 3 pt loss, dagger opening series by WSU and Beavs climbing uphill all day, could not get the big play to turn the game…

        Beavs aren’t as bad on the road as we have been led to believe. Bray defense keeps Beavs in games. Nolan’s turnovers and Tibesar’s defense were detrimental in half of those losses.
        I’ll trust Bray and the DJU version of qb play over what we had previously and take the results. Beavs win @UA, @Cal, @Colorado and @Oregon will be a toss up.

        • Close losses are still losses. Playing on the road is a psychological battle. The team has shown they’re improving their mental toughness and are able to keep grinding in those difficult road games, but when there’s that big of a difference in home and away results, that has to tell you there’s still plenty of room for improvement.

    • Fresno didn’t lose another game after we played last season. Including destroying WSU in a bowl game. Stanford sure, but we won.

    • COLORADO, CAL, PURDUE (2021)

      We lost by 3 against Colorado, they were slightly worse in conference play than we were at the time (OSU 3-3, Colorado 2-4). They were not a good team that year.

      Cal wasn’t much better than Colorado that year, finishing 5-7. We lost by 14; they ran the ball well against the Beavers & we handed them 3 turnovers. That’s hard ask for any team to recover from on a road game, even if the team is stout.

      We lost to Purdue in 2021 by 9; a team that finished 9-4.

      FRESNO ST., STANFORD (2022)

      We won both of these games 35-32 & 28-27 respectively. How are wins on the road “significant regression?”

      Stanford was not a strong team last year.

      Fresno St. finished 10-4.

      None of what you’ve cited supports your contention O.o ; in fact, ppl cited improved team culture on away games, noting how the Beavers were able to overcome errors/mistakes earlier in these games, and make adjustments. This was not the case in the past.

  16. I listen to P-12 radio on satellite occasionally. The talking heads were on the topic of coach salaries and then they mentioned the Beavs/Wazzu would lose Dickert/Smith when the programs go to the MWC. I thought it was interesting because there was no mention of the lawsuits and potential monies out there then it dawned on me that I’m probably listening to the enemy in a way. To make matters worse, one of the hosts was Geoff Schwartz who was a Duck player.

    • The thing you have to remember is that the sports media (like most media) has a superficial understanding of everything except X’s and O’s, and sometimes that too. Secondly, as the guys on Locked On Big 12 said, it’s in the interest of some parties to avoid talking about the legal strength OSU and WSU have because publicity and exposure only strengthens the hand of the Pac 2. Bill Hancock let the cat out of the bag during the CFP meetings last week. They are looking at the real prospect of a 2 team league for the next 2 years.

      • I learned this from Wilner, who I watched turn from a football beat writer into a financial analyst, when he started to question Larry Scott’s extravagant expenses. He taught himself so many different angles over the last decade. And he is the first to tell you precisely what you said–sports reporters know sports, not legalities or finances.

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      It seems like a lot of pundits and commentators are being told to either not address the lawsuit or downplay it entirely. I think the head in the sand is happening with frequency and when the system breakdown approaches and they see the actual leverage held by PAC2 they will collectively lose their minds and blame each other for not explaining everything more clearly.

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        I’m waiting for the opposition to ask for a change in venue given the judge’s known WSU historical association. I doubt it would be granted because it is Superior Court and he has a sterling reputation.
        What we don’t know and shouldn’t know; how were the law firm and the filing ready as soon as K posted the meeting agenda?

    • Very similar to the Colley Matrix, which is mostly based on SOS and opponent results. Beavs are at #29 in that one. It’s interesting for the end of the season, but sort of meaningless at this point when SOS is even more unbalanced between teams.

    • It looks like if WSU would have beat us by more then 8 points there’s a good chance they would be #1 in that poll. Ridiculous.

    • It’s hard to believe the rationale thrown out there by hole admin that what they did was actually in the best interest of hole and the state of Oregon, unless they themselves haven’t accepted that emotional decision making and negotiating in crisis mode were blunders. We’ve talked about the 1.7m and 5m payout tiers of the Apple deal and then looked at reported viewer numbers for these first five games… does anyone think the PAC wouldn’t have made 1.7m subscriptions AND think that there wouldn’t be significant national reach based on the game times alone? C’mon.

  17. Information overload alert. The NCAA drops the 25 player a year limit, but shrinks the transfer portal dates. All articles on espn, I won’t post them here.

  18. Utes NIL collective has been busy hustling donations.

    They just announced a new NIL package for all 85 scholarship football players get a 2024 leased Dodge Ram with insurance included, and all trucks have NIL messaging via vinyl wraps to facilitate more exposure around town and at charity events where the athletes will be attending.

    Brian Bosworth and Reggie Bush object….Pretty nice deal now that it isn’t a recruiting violation.

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    Dear beavo soccer folks…

    “ATTENTION BEAVER NATION! ??

    We will be giving away vuvuzelas at tomorrow night’s match vs. UCLA! Make sure you get to Lorenz to snag yours!

    #GoBeavs”

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    A caller posed a good question on Joe Beaver show today:
    Hypothetical given the direction of lawsuits, Big12 makes a concession and extends an invite to PAC2 but they run it down, does that work against them in the litigation as though they had a chance to join a P5 but turned it down?
    Anyone have some insight on this scenario?

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      The only thing being litigated right now is getting to the bottom of who is considered the legal board of directors of the Pac-12. The parties (OSU/WSU vs Pac-12/Kliavkoff) could reach a settlement before the hearing in November, but even if they don’t that is all that will be decided (and it could be appealed either way). Whether or not the Big 12 has invited OSU/WSU is irrelevant to determining who exactly constitutes the board of directors of the Pac-12.

      If the 2Pac is declared the sole board of the Pac-12, and ESPN/Big12 step in and try invite them to the Big12 to make it all go away, and should the 2Pac turn that down, I guess it’s possible that would impact them in some way should they choose to seek damages in a civil suit against ESPN or something, but I don’t think that is the most likely outcome.

      Either OSU/WSU will accept an invite to Big12/Big10 (at ESPN/FOX’s behest to make litigation go away) and the Pac-12 will cease to exist or they’ll run the Pac-12 as a 2-team conference for two years and seek to rebuild it with mostly MWC schools.

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        I still think keeping the conference alive is the best option. There are some good MW teams that would really improve with an injection of capital (e.g. the CFP payout).

      • 10

        If ESPN or FOX (or both) pay us off to kill the Pac 12 Network, we’re just a part of the problem… and likely worse off than playing on the West Coast.

        I also don’t need to see CU or UA for a long while, which is just a bonus.

        • I agree. I think the PAC2 messaging angle has been athlete centered relating to travel burden and any capitulation would be pretty hypocritical and lose the entire “moral high ground”, as much as it may be.
          I’d say the direction will be to continue to argue that other options still don’t deal with the harm done by the T10 who departed and the networks who played Great and Powerful OZ behind the curtains.
          At this point, I’d guess the PAC2 rebuild over a 2-3 year window will be the option that we see. It will be the best fiscally, regionally, and the leaders will be consistent in their message. The key will be maintaining P5 status and keeping recruits but I wonder if OSU/WSU become transfer destinations for unhappy west coast athletes who aren’t interested in the travel load.

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            I’m skeptical we’ll keep P5 status if we move with the MW in whatever way it shakes out. Each conference has a vote in the CFP. Theyll lose one of those votes with a merger and it’s over. The NCAA has no teeth in the matter so they’ll be zero help on keeping status.

            At this point it’s either play the game with the media conglomerates or G5. I’m even skeptical we’ll get an offer just because we are fighting for ownership of the P2. The media companies can keep us locked in litigation for years, how is that going to help keep our P5 status? We will be slowing withered on the vine with no media deal and no income. And once we maybe get something we’ll be so far behind it will take another 28 years to recover, or the super conferences will start and we’ll be in the same position.
            I’m not trying to be a debby-downer, but I’d like to temper expectations here so we don’t get our hearts broken. I’m all for a fight but it might not matter in the end.

          • P5 status is really a misnomer, these days. Creating a conference that competes at a high enough level to have a top ranked champion is the goal.
            The travel should be a real concern for many athletes. And several schools will now have to recruit Cali, without any promise they’ll play within 500 miles of home.
            That’s the opportunity available for Fresno and SDSU… and imagine UNLV with some increased revenue and some NIL.
            Add Wyoming, CSU, and AFA, and that’s a decent 8 team conference. But everyone needs some bottom dwellers, so the cannibalizing doesn’t take too much toll. And we need a private school, in some way, to make board proceedings out of the public eye.

          • G5 only gets 1 guaranteed spot. How do they pick that spot when more then one school goes undefeated because I’m willing to bet they take a 2 loss SEC/Big10 school into the at-large bid over an undefeated G5er every day.

          • The format as it is will be the six highest ranking Conference Champions plus six at-large.
            If 2Pac’s Champ falls in that category, one of us is in.
            And we get to decide how the Conference will use the funds.
            It’s all up in the air, depending on other lawsuits that might make liabilities too much. But there’s a path to better competition on the West Coast.

          • If the Go5 were really smart they would drop the conference championship games that nobody watches and do a 4 team play-in tournament for the final 12 team championship play off spot. Those would be some meaningful games and dollars for the programs who make the Go5 post-season tournament.

          • I’ve always thought a 9 team football conference, 8 conference round robin, and 4 basketball schools for a 12 team basketball conference is the way to go.

            The 8 you mentioned plus Hawaii for football only would work. I like the idea of New Mexico for basketball plus CSU has no baseball but sounds like WY, CSU, and AFA are a package so probably worth it.

            I’d grab Gonzaga, University of San Francisco, Pepperdine, and UC Irvine for the 12. I know everyone mentions St. Mary’s but I think USF has bigger potential and Pepperdine/Irvine get you back into the LA area plus both are decent baseball programs.

          • If we end up in the Big 12, we’ll mostly play old PAC teams, anyway. We would add probably 2 games in the midwest max per year. That’s easily offset by making sure we play non-con games in the west.

          • There is nothing “cohesive” about the 18 team Big Ten.

            College conferences shouldn’t be national and they shouldn’t be so large. The Big Ten is no longer a cohesive conference, hasn’t been in years.

    • My biggest concern no matter the conference, payout, whatever it is, what will the stability be of the athletic programs. If they go with option A, will they lose Smith, a lot of players etc, setting programs back years. Losing coaches, donations, funding etc. It’s hard to look down the road while also protecting the immediate future. I really hope Smith, Canham, Rueck, etc are in the room on some of these meetings and will trust the timeline.

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    Objection! Sustained! Overruled! Sidebar! Guilty! Speculation! Hearsay! Bailiff! Briefcase! Disregard! In my chambers! Stop beavering the witness! I rest my case.

  22. I have a question. Our 2 main WR’s are 5′ 8″, does another 2″ make all that much difference? Brandon Cooks is 5′ 10″ and has done well in the NFL. He hasn’t been the best but certainly done well financially. In college he was lights out and probably accounted for most of Mannion’s numbers. I think if DJU was throwing to Cooks he’d have Mannion numbers. Maybe one difference was that Cooks didn’t drop balls. Bolden and Gould are speedsters, good route running with speed should get separation. Maybe they need more glue on their hands.

    • Brandon Cooks was an outlier. 6’+ dudes will have a bigger wing span. Gould is dropping balls this year, last year he was pretty sure handed. I have seen him on several routes especially deeper go routes where he’s had a step or two on his coverage and DJ has missed the read.

    • Another question. We have a RSr who is listed as 6’2″, Rweha Munyagi ; and another 6’2″ WR in Jeremiah Noga. Why have those two seen such limited action?
      Do they lack the “glue on their hands” too?

      • If the thought is if Gould and Bolden were slot receivers LBs would kill them, how about these two? At 6’2″ they should be good for a quick slant…

        Are either Bolden or Gould as effective as Cooks was at the double move?

        More throws to the TEs please. It almost feels like the staff is saving those for the back half of the season, but i should check stats to verify my impression that TE targets are low.

    • Has Bolden EVER dropped a pass?? I think his hands are one of his best traits…not sure what you’re seeing there, dude!
      Gould has had some very bad drops lately but I don’t know if the total number is very high, and it definitely hasn’t been an issue over the course of his career.

      But either way drops are not the problem with those 2. It’s separation and not getting bullied or physically overwhelmed by big corners. Overcoming jamming at the line.

  23. Mitch continues with hot recruiting. Final BA class ranking was #8. Hopefully there were some quality arms in that class…

  24. This whole Mel Tucker/Brenda Tracy thing just got more interesting. Tucker’s attorney has attained new evidence that contradict the statements Tracy made to investigators and the courts. Also there’s mention of another coach “Damon” who she was having an affair with at the same time as her stuff with Tucker was going on. Turns out “Domon” is none other than Damon Stoudamire(another ultra wealthy black man….go figure…)
    Brenda was alsi broke at the time of the incident and appeared to be trying to fast track a settlement between her and Tucker and MSU before taking her story to select media members.

    It doesnt excuse Tucker from his behavior, but we can’t just ignore the evidence that she has some motivation to get into these types of situations with men. It’s all really twisted.

    https://www.wlns.com/news/tucker-to-miss-title-ix-hearing-new-documents-released/

  25. It’s curious that John Canzano hasn’t tweeted or written about Brenda lately. In the past, he never skipped an opportunity to give her air time or promote her tweets.
    Makes you wonder if he’s distancing himself from her now. Too many phone records floating around out there that could be used against him.

    Also, an oldie. Too bad Damon Stoudamire isn’t better at making choices for himself.

    https://twitter.com/johncanzanobft/status/737290428756594689?t=NH844DJqRp7pwIqQNmhHCQ&s=19

  26. The really weird/sad/crazy aspect of Brenda Tracey’s relationships is this what is publicly shared. What is hidden should remain so…but a “tell all” book could be in the future for the right price I’m sure…only to set the story straight…

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    Football was tough back then. Just in the film were several helmet to helmet hits. It would be harder for him to play today. Big praise coming from Deacon Jones.

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    BIG10 announcing the 5 year schedule of opponents yesterday. I’m going to guess this doesn’t help any school making a case that they didn’t give a notice of withdrawal.

  29. PHIL STEELE REPORT:

    Home team is 6-2 SU & ATS including winning & covering last 3. Outright winner has covered last 20, with 8 outright upsets including 3 in the last 4. Last year, California (+12’) allowed a PR TD to trail 21-0 2Q & trailed 31-7 into 4Q, losing 38-10. Jayden Ott ,who was the leading P12 frosh with 725 yards, was held to 8-20 and Oregon State had a 362-156-yard edge. Oregon State is 3-1 SU/ATS since 2019. Last time here (‘21) Oregon State (-1’) never led, trailing 10-0 2Q & 31-17 into the 4Q, but were down just 31-25 before allowing a TD with 5:36 left to lose 39-25. California opened with 669 yards at North Texas, then outgained Auburn 273-230 in a home loss. They trailed Washington 45-12 at halftime and 52-12 before scoring 3 TD’s to only lose 59-32. Last week Arizona State had a 430-326 yard edge as. California led 10-7 at halftime. Arizona State was SOD at the end of the 1H and again to start the 3Q and California went 31/4 for a TD. Arizona State went 71/7 and 69/6, settling for 24 & 29 yd FGs to pull to within 17-13. California went 11/3 for TD (after int) to lead 24-13 but Arizona State got a 52 yd KR and went 48/4 for TD 9:18 left. California went 74/18 but were SOD on the 1 with 2:50 left. Oregon State looked great in their first two games but only beat San Diego State 26-9 then lost at Washington State 38-35, trailing 38-21 mid 4Q. Last week Cam Rising was out and Nate Johnson in his first road start hit 3-12-35 and was replaced in the 3Q by Barnes who was injured in the 4Q, and Johnson hit a 41 yd TD pass to avoid the shutout. Oregon State brought in Aiden Chiles for a 2Q series. Utah opened 40/9 but were SOD on 4&6 at the 35. Oregon State went 65/11 for a TD then 8 punts (Oregon State 57/9 punt from Utah 35 :47) 7-0 H. Oregon State took the 2nd possession in the 3Q 52/2 for a TD and got a 45 yd TD to make the score 21-0 with 13:50 left. Utah drove 55/3 on pass in which Jasmin at the 35 broke a tackle for a 41 yd TD 5:05 left. Oregon State had a 358-198 yd edge. Jonathan Smith is 13-6 ATS as an AD but just 2-6 ATS as an AF. California is 11-4 ATS as a HD and the home team is 6-2 SU and ATS. My computer has Oregon State 30-21 but the yards even at 365 and my AGG has the Beavers by only 3! California is at home and has taken on the much tougher schedule (#15 vs #52).

    #15 OREGON STATE 27, CALIFORNIA 24 (BEST BET: CALIFORNIA +9.5)

    COMPUTER FORECAST (ORST-CAL):
    Rush Yards: 168-133
    Pass Yards: 196-229
    Total Yards: 365-262
    Points: 30.2-20.5
    EXP: 52-15

    Vegas Line: Oregon State by 9.5
    Vegas Total: 51.5 Points
    +/- Rating: Oregon State by 13.5
    Game Grade: Oregon State by 3.0
    L4W Game Grade: Oregon State by 7.9
    Last Met Line: Oregon State -6
    Last Met Score: Oregon State -22
    Points per Yards: Oregon State by 0.4

    PAC-12
    #9 USC 49, Arizona 25
    UCLA 27, #13 Washington State 24
    Colorado 30, Arizona State 24

    NATIONAL
    #1 Georgia 27, #20 Kentucky 10
    #2 Michigan 35, Minnesota 6
    #3 Texas 34, #12 Oklahoma 27
    #4 Ohio State 44, Maryland 23
    #5 Florida State 45, Virginia Tech 17
    #10 Notre Dame 31, #25 Louisville 20
    Texas A&M 24, #11 Alabama 20
    #14 North Carolina 37, Syracuse 20 – (BEST BET NCAR -8)
    #16 Ole Miss 34, Arkansas 31
    #17 Miami FL 41, Georgia Tech 20
    #23 LSU 37, #21 Missouri 27
    Wyoming 20, #24 Fresno State 18

  30. It would be good to see a couple of upsets, especially from the SEC. Several undefeated teams could get knocked off this weekend. SEC is down to
    Kentucky over Georgia. both teams 5-0
    Oklahoma over Texas. both teams 5-0
    Maryland over OSU. both teams 5-0
    Notre Dame over Louisville Louisville 5-0 but a ND loss would drop them down considerably
    Texas A&M over Alabama. Bama 4-1 and needs another loss to destroy their season
    LSU over Missouri. Mizzo 5-0 but LSU wont lose this one will they
    USC vs Arizona may be interesting this week, since USC is allergic to defense.
    NC @ Syracuse is a possible upset

    Beavs just need to keep winning each week, get to the bye week at 6-1 and likely will go into the last several weeks of the season in the top 10. The undefeated teams will dwindle quickly as conference play continues. A loss early is better than a loss late.
    SEC has only 3 undefeated teams (UGA, Kent, Mizzo) and one will lose this weekend for sure.
    ACC has 4 undefeated still (Miami, Louisville, Florida St, NC)
    Big10 has 4 undefeated teams left (OSU, Mich, Maryland, Penn St) guaranteed loss for one this weekend
    Big12 has 2 undefeated teams left (Texas, Oklahoma) head to head this week, guaranteed loss this weekend
    Pac12 has 4 undefeated teams left (USC, UW, Oregon, WSU)
    MWC has 2 undefeated teams left (Fresno St, Air Force)

    Utah will not get anymore big wins without getting Rising back. WSU, USC will insert into their place as the teams to watch for the dagger wins against UCLA, UW, Oregon before OSU plays those schools. USC will score but will they play defense?

  31. This part of the season seems eerily similar to 2021. Coming off a brutal loss at WSU, beat Utah in a big night game and then play at Cal the next week. Fumbled on the first play of the game and didn’t really threaten the rest of the game. Don’t need a repeat of that.

    I think it’s a pretty straight forward game plan. Stop the run and then get to the QB on passing downs. He’s not much of a runner so rushers should not have to worry about keeping him in the pocket. Hopefully Bray comes up with more creative ways to confuse the QB on his reads so he doesn’t know who is coming. He’s also short, and probably lower than his listed height. DLine might be able to bat a few passes down. The backup is pocket passer who might play too.

    On offense, let DM do work. Still under 20 carries per game and he’s been under 100 yards the last two games. Only 2 TDs on the year, time to increase that total.

  32. Vegas down to Beavs -7.5 from -9.5/10
    Some have WSU +only 3, still thinkin’ Cougs win that one, but should we be pulling for a WSU loss at some point?

      • 1
        3

        All we need is for Oregon and UW to beat USC and that would open the door for a PAC2 championship.
        If OSU/WSU win out-
        WSU at 12-0
        OSU at 11-1
        USC at 2 loss to UW & Oregon
        UW at 2 loss, expect them to beat Oregon
        Oregon at 3 loss
        No tie breakers needed for the rematch as OSU gets the win but WSU still gets the New Years 6 bid. Each schools reaps the immediate benefits as all payouts go into the PAC2 coffers and sweet justice.

          • If they win out they should be in the CFP even if they lose the conference championship, and be ranked in the top 2. No other team in college football would have the same resume.

  33. I think there is safety in numbers which is why I think going to Big12 is best long term move. But reformulating the PAC with MWC teams might work too… it just seems the latter is a more risky move.

    • 4
      1

      The risk of a rebuild PAC is the predictably vengeful. response of the media/conference conglomerate after being thwarted. I can envision an even more targeted tactic along the lines of lack of scheduling with PAC, broad minimization of ranked teams from the PAC, difficulty getting ranked by pollsters, PAC finishing just outside of the defined threshholds for participation. It will take an undefeated team, as Boise St was able to do in the past, to break through the stranglehold. PAC will never get 2 entries into the playoffs if rebuilt, guaranteed.

      It does seem to be a short-term period of stability by going to Big12, but the eventual collapse and separation of college football will happen soon enough. Is it better to have the financing, assets, conference partners, west coast ties, regional following and moral high ground to rebuild as PAC? I think all of those benefits are traded for a short-term and uncertain ticket to the Big12 or Big10. If the writing is on the wall from all voices regarding an eventual minor league football league of 40-50 teams, it is very unlikely the Beavs are invited to that party anyway, and in the process you have forfeited all assets, consistency, leverage, and financial benefits from the possible hand of 4 Aces currently held by PAC2. I’m of the opinion that recruiting won’t be impacted as much as is being floated if the students also see what is happening and who is driving the madness. Recruiting can easily be shifted to regionality, continued access to great facilities, without the NIL/SemiPro and extensive travel of other schools. The future shift from conferences to 50 team semi-pro league will have a similar effect that the 80 scholarship reduction had since the 1990’s. Not every player who is highly ranked wants to be 3rd string at Ohio St, Alabama, or USC. The smart ones will look elsewhere for playing time and opportunities. It will open opportunities for a lot of schools to recruit these kids outside of the 50 chosen brands. Oregon St will have the chance to benefit and build form the Boise St/Chris Peterson model with “Our Kind Of Guys” recruiting strategy. And it will work again under JS.

      I’d say the BIG10 putting out their 2024 schedules is just another attempt to self promote using Oregon and UW out of the gate for big match-ups and quick turn on the investment. How long until the shine wears off for all involved? Ohio St to Autzen is a big game for now, but how soon until it becomes Ohio St at Nebraska? I’d guess sooner than they’d like to think.

      • Is it better to have the financing, assets, conference partners, west coast ties, regional following and moral high ground to rebuild as PAC?
        Not an easy question to answer since we have no solid numbers for the financing/assets/(AND Liabilities). This is a main point being made by the two University presidents.
        The regional following and moral high ground sound good, but what is their $ value?…..maybe helpful in recruiting the “Our Kind Of Guys” which, I agree, can work under JS.

      • 6
        1

        The rebuild has nothing to do with vengeance, and neither does not scheduling competing conferences.

        Those who are leaving look down on all that is left on the West Coast. Reforming them as a competent conference which will grow to dominate the West is not vengeance. It’s what we’re left with.

        And aiding the schools who left by gifting them schedule breaks is acknowledging their current valuations of the schools they look down on. The remaining West Coast schools need to band together and then freeze out those who left, because they are the competition, and they have shown that this is what competing conferences NEED to do, from here on out, for survival. That short-term buy game will not set up the long-term game of dominance. The schools who left went national, and they can stay that way.

    • 2
      2

      Let’s be clear.

      No conference can afford us, and we can’t afford them. Just joining the Big 12 isn’t happening, without a full share. And if that share manifests, it means we have enough leverage to demand more and get it.

      If the liabilities prove too much, we will be stuck going to the MWC and pretty much working with a lot less.

      So anti-trust suits brought just to join the Big 12 sounds a little silly, given we could ask for and get much more at that point.

  34. 2
    4

    Beavs are a different team on the road since Bray took over. WSU was the hiccup for the season. Beavs will be focused and Bears will wilt in 2nd half.
    Beavs run away with the victory 41-10

  35. Also, let’s clarify ESPN’s role in the collapse of the Pac-12, because the network has been unfairly criticized on this front over the past few weeks. Its executives made a fair-market offer for the Pac-12 media rights last fall ($30 million per school per year), but the arrogant Pac-12 presidents declined, setting in motion the events that led to the Aug. 4 collapse.
    (If you want to blame a network, blame Fox, the Big Ten’s media overlord, which orchestrated the raid of the L.A. schools in the summer of 2022 and eventually summoned the cash necessary to convince Oregon and Washington to make the jump.)

    So says Wilner in an opinion piece in the Spokane paper.
    https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2023/oct/05/washington-states-feud-with-espn-its-time-for-game/

    • 1
      2

      Has Wilmer cashed any checks from Bristol recently?

      Not buying it that ESPN is the victim. They control all bowl games and several conferences. They have Yornak bounty money to go get PAC12 teams for their late window slot. And ESPN was part of the ACC pulling Stanford/Cal and SMU.
      All you need to do is listen to ESPN talking heads and they admit as much by the way they were cheerleading the end of the PAC12. A bunch of revisionist history so they can try to avoid the lawsuit they know is coming. Wilber is a useful idiot and is unwittingly helping set the table for ESPN to try to escape the consequences of their role in the whole debacle.

      • 1
        1

        Good points, and this is why “discovery” in the legal process is so important. Smokin’ gun emails and such will trump Wilners opinion.

    • So ESPN, upon not negotiating, rather, “taking their ball and going home” by heading to the Big 12 and signing a deal with them that includes money for four P5 schools to join at full price isn’t meant as an attack on the Pac 12.

      I suppose the incentive for those four shares must have really been meant for B1G or SEC schools, since nobody in the ACC is going anywhere until 2036.

      This is why Jon doesn’t usually speculate. The numbers say so much more.

      $50 million, btw, was to include UCLA and SDSU. Yes, we were trying to poach UCLA back at the time, and they were going to get $50 million, regrdless of what the rest of us got–because that’s what they would get in the B1G, minus extra travel costs.

      • 10
        7

        FOX did rouse the tighty-whities and turned them into useful idiots mindlessly repeating well-know white supremacist propaganda.

        So there’s that.

        • 5
          1

          Oh, look! look! White supremacist! They are everywhere! Everywhere, by God. Stick to commenting on sport related items Jack. You at least add something to the conversation and do make good points. But white supremacist? Talk about useful idiot, take a good look in the mirror because you are parroting every media outlet that takes orders from DC. Jack the Hack. Useful for sure.

      • Australian conspiracy mate. Hit America where it hurts and take us down….then install Aussie rules football as the national sport…

    • Interesting, is it a fact that she had a relationship with Damon Stoudamire at the same time this stuff with Mel Tucker was going on? No mention of Stoudamire in this article. Is Stoudamire married?

      • The text messagea that Tucker’s team released a few days ago had Brenda talking about how happy she was to move into a “bench” coach or something to that affect and she mentions Damon a few times in the messages. I guess Damon was an assistant for the Celtics at the time, and tjere’s already known connections between Stoudamire and Brenda. I dint think the measages specifically said his last name though.

        And the restraining order she was granted was to prevent these text message from being shared, because apparently Tucker’s attorney legally shouldnt have access to them.
        Sounds like the guy who was married to Tracy’s recently deceased friend is the one who shared the texts with Tucker’s camp. Not a good sign for Tracy when he is helping out Tucker. Seems like people whonget to know her eventually turn on her.

        • I was sympathetic to Tracy until she tried to equate her cause with Luke Heimlich’s case and helped destroy him on social media. I’m sure Tucker is a mess, but this just smells like drama between two screwed-up adults (I guess three now when one includes Stoudamire).

  36. 2
    1

    pac-12, Yogi Roth, are disgusting. I estimate Chip Kelly name used 50 times. If you didn’t know WSU coach’s name, you still wouldn’t know by listening/watching the first half.

  37. 2
    1

    Think its bad now, wait until next weeks OSU game vs UCLA. its on FOX, home of the Big 10, and future Big 10 team playing. I’d be surprised if they even mention OSU. It will be all about UCLA defense and Dante Moore lol

  38. WSU completing 42% of passes, UCLA 46%…

    WSU defensive stats look pretty goid, but ucla has gad the ball 13 minutes more than WSU’s <12:23 TOP….

  39. 2
    2

    I know, I know…….no transitive properties in college football, but UCLA’s defense has me feeling anxious about next week.

    • Seems like this is the year UCLA matches up well against their cross-town rival. They are physical up front and have speed in the backend, and they have a punishing run game. Similar to OSU but with far more NFL talent on defense.

      I think that they are the dark horse for the conference championship, if Moore gets better as the season progresses. If you look at their schedule 9-3 looks like the worst-case scenario.

  40. UCLA offense is pedestrian, but defense is solid especially against the run. If Beavs can figure out a way to run the ball they’ll win.

  41. 1
    1

    Yogi and Ted sound downright gleeful that Wazzu lost and really talking about the 1968 Indiana Rose Bowl team. WTF? Yeah and that full-share Power 5 Big 10 juggernaut Northwestern barely beat Howard 23-20 after leading 16-0. Realignment sucks!

  42. WSU goes down 25-17 on a 2:1 pass:run ratio, Beavs won’t be that unbalanced, might be the answer to the Bruin D.
    Oh yeah, better keep the TO’s under the 4 given up by Cougars.

    Go Beavs, get the Bears first.

    • Being able to totally stop the run anyway with that scheme is shocking. Not sure if WSU had players injured but it doesn’t bode well for them the rest of the season. That was beyond a domination. Could have been a 4 TD blowout for UCLA if not for the stupid mistakes and key misses on 3rd down.

    • Fair to say Wazzu simply played out of their minds to beat the Beavs. As if that was their Super Bowl rather than the rest of the conference traitors. Thanks a lot Cougs…Beavs win that game if their receivers dropped even a couple of those miracle
      Catches. Too bad.

    • The weather eventually got to that defense. TOP was 38 to 21. Defense just couldn’t hold them for that long in 90 degree weather.

      UCLA D line won the game. Got pressure with 3 or 4 and dropped everyone else in to coverage. They didn’t do anything fancy, just beat the oline straight up.

      WSU didn’t help themselves out with 4 turnovers.

  43. 2
    1

    With how bad Cam Ward looked, that coaching performance by Trent Bray a couple weeks ago was absolute dog shit. Extremely conservative and vanilla the first 3 quarters. Very Tibesar esque. Seemed like he was coaching scared. UCLA was extremely aggressive and it rattled Cam. UCLA has a better secondary but they also weren’t playing soft coverage constantly and putting their DBs at a disadvantage. Hopefully that was a one time thing but we likely won’t know until they get UW. Up until that game they’re gonna face a lot of teams with either very suspect QBs or putrid offensive lines.

    • We also have a pretty weak pass rush. So you have to choose between playing vanilla coverage or taking a major gamble on blitzing and giving Ward better matchups. The strategy would have worked if it weren’t for the highlight reel catches.

      • Yep and slow DBs that can’t play zone. That combination is why we’ve lost 10 of the last 11 to Wazzu.

        The opposite scenario is why Washington has won 10 out of the last 11 against Wazzu.

  44. Have the refs taken a new course on PI’s? Seen a lot of heavy contact with no call. Watching ASU an CU. CU defender had arms around receivers head with no call. Maybe it only applies to Beavers.

  45. Beavs need to rattle off 5 straight Ws.
    Cal, UCLA, Arizona, Colorado, Stanford.
    All very winnable games. If the Beavs get those, the last 2 games of the season will be very interesting.
    2 out of UW/Oregon/USC are guaranteed to lose 1 more game. Beavs can control their destiny in the UW/Oregon games if WSU loses one more, which they’re bound to do.

    Just…keep…winning.

    And run the damn ball.

  46. Haha Dillingham experiencing the PAC12 refs inability to place the ball correctly for teams who aren’t “chosen”. Welcome to the Beavs world.

    PAC12 refs are horrible on a regular basis.

    • Sanders may not survive the season actually. He gets hit so much he gets pity flags thrown by the refs on clean hits. He is good but pretty annoying watching their entire team look like garbage and then trash talk on one big play, then look like garbage, then strut , then play like garbage.
      Pretty undisciplined group that Sanders has basically bailed out for 2 of their wins.

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