The big news is that the Beavers get Jake Rodriguez back this week. At least as a fielder. The guy is a masher, so if his hand is well enough that he can hit it would be a huge lift. Both UCLA and OSU have very similar offenses (OSU has a few more HRs/pop, but otherwise the offenses are identical). Therefore, I'll focus on pitching. It's what will determine this series.
The weekend rotation hasn't been announced yet, but my guess is it will look like:
| Date |
Opponent |
Pitchers |
Time (PT) |
| 4/29 |
UCLA |
Sam Gaviglio (7-1, 1.68) vs Gerrit Cole (4-4, 2.78) |
6:00 p.m. |
| 4/30 |
UCLA |
Josh Osich (5-1, 3.30) vs Trevor Bauer (8-1, 1.42) |
2:00 p.m. |
| 5/1 |
UCLA |
TBD/Scott Schultz (2-0, 3.18) vs Adam Plutko (2-3, 1.69) |
1:00 p.m. |
Game 2 is a perfect example of why OSU isn't built for the post-season. Say Gerrit Cole wins game 1. The pressure shifts to Josh Osich to beat Trevor Bauer in game 2. Bauer's statistics run deep. 127SO/82IP, .145 batting average against, .80 WHIP. The strategy should be to take pitches, work long counts, and try to get Bauer out of the game by the 7th. Osich is "gutty" and described as a power arm, but the statistics don't back up the latter. He has 45 strikeouts in 46 innings, 21 walks, and 39 hits. That is a poor WHIP, and a .231 batting average against is fairly high for a Saturday starter. These numbers explain why Osich constantly finds himself in trouble.
The Beavers are going to run into this problem often in the post-season where every team has two good/great starters, and they only have one great starter and an unpredictable headcase in the Saturday slot.
I know I am on record saying the Beavers have the team chemistry to win a title. I think that is true, and it's why I'm not making a bigger deal about Osish. The Beavs can (and have) overcome him to this point, and Pat Casey seems intent on leaving him there. But I'll say it again: Boyd needs to be the Saturday starter. Pat Casey's strategy right now is to start Osich and have a quick hook. That's a good way to blow up your bullpen, and in a tight three game playoff, that could be the difference between advancing and going home. Eventually Casey's strategy will backfire.
It seems like the Beavers matchup poorly with UCLA in every sport. Even when OSU has a better team, the Bruins seem to win. I see this series being no different. In fact, even though I've been burned by predictions of late, I feel enough conviction to say OSU will be lucky to win one. I'm not going to hear the end of it if Osich dominates game 2 and wins the series for the Beavs, but even if that happens, the problem would just be disguised and the solution delayed.