What do you do if you’re a smoker dying of lung cancer?
Ask the Oregon State Beavers and they’ll likely tell you to light one up and take a drag.
A team that, since 2006, has gotten drubbed in OOC games by Penn State, Boise State, and Cincinnati (twice), is now looking to add to that momentum by inking deals with TCU, Boise State, Wisconsin, and BYU over the next two years.
Good or bad?
I have to say, I like the devil-may-care scheduling. To be fearless and believe you can play with the big boys is the first step in that self-fulfilling prophecy ringing true.
My question is this: do the Beavers actually believe they can win these games or are they just intriguing money grabs? Using history as an indicator, it’s hard to believe Riley & friends believe they’re going to come out of these games looking good, especially if they’re on ESPN/prime time (a slot they only thrive in versus familiar PAC-10 foes).
I know fans will be jacked up for these games, at least until they kickoff (and the drubbing begins!). That’s when we’ll hear the complaints that Bob D should have scheduled Montana, Idaho, Portland State, or a directional vocational school…just like the SEC does. It’s a valid argument, but if you believe it then make it now. Personally I think it’s interesting that the Beavers are taking this uber-aggressive approach. They haven’t been able to deliver the fanbase a BCS game for some time, and some of these games (see TCU) will have that feel. Even if it doesn’t make college football sense as defined by the SEC, it’s exciting, right?
It’s exciting, and it’s the right thing to do. Even if the coaches, fans and prognosticators all think the Beavs are going to lose, there’s one group who doesn’t know any better… the team itself.
One of these days they’re going to break through with their moment in that big win… that big non-con win. And we’ll still get paid the big bucks.
And the non-con games are the more likely games to be seen by recruits. Because the conference games get lost in the full rotation of all teams vying for TV time, we have to step outside the box to get our name in the national spotlight. Because we play USC well, and because the Civil War has been relevant for the past couple years, we’ve earned the right to take the national spotlight for those two games. We get three extra next year because we’re willing to do it. And we don’t have to play the short/long/bye week game during the conference schedule because of mid-week games.
“Because the conference games get lost in the full rotation of all teams vying for TV time”
Good point.
“Even if the coaches, fans and prognosticators all think the Beavs are going to lose, there’s one group who doesn’t know any better… the team itself.”
You think so? I think they lack confidence. Big time. I see the fear in their eyes and language of their bodies in big games.
It can go either way. The gradual increase in talent has to tip he scales one day. Maybe that happens this year… maybe next.
We have the benefit of being the underdog at both TCU and BSU. So with nothing to lose, the team discovers what it takes to beat good teams early in the season. If they bring any kind of fight to these games (not after the game) then it puts the program in a good light. If we lose by giving up, then we were going to lose anyway. So what’s the difference in playing these games and ones against the underbelly of the SWAC?
I’ll still love my team if they lose. And they’ll still pick up the pieces for a Pac 10 run… as is their habit. But I want a team that’s feared on the field. That doesn’t happen until we win the compelling games.
Then maybe next year we could host Oklahoma and just keep kicking on-side kicks. :)
I wonder how much further advanced the team might be now if we had managed to beat LSU and their 473 returning All Americans those years ago. Instead, we were a by-line.
I think you need to have one cupcake in the schedule every year. You just do. Right or wrong the SEC model works. The Beavers could go 0-3 very easily. I know…risk/reward.
They could go 0-3 yet still win the Pac-10 and go to a BCS game. If they don’t, these early games *are* our BCS games. That’s why I see this as a no lose situation for the athletic department and fans. Now, the real risk is national perception. Right now we’re perceived well enough that TCU thinks they’re building their resume with a win versus us. Does that continue if we get trounced in the OOC games?
“And the non-con games are the more likely games to be seen by recruits.” – – this is true, but a huge negative to recruiting if the Beavs get blown out…
Pretty much exactly what I was getting at above.
I worry about the blow-outs also. But I have to think in terms of no fear. I want my team to be that way, so I think the fans need to be that way as well.
Not unrealistically cocky… just no fear.
I agreeRiley and team HOPE to win but don’t believe they can and “impose their will.” Riley’s real goal seems to be giving the kids a neat experience in a big, different environment. I think the recent decrease in osu talent is likely to contribute to low confidence in these games rather than build it – think TCU and BSU next year.
The “neat experience” comment is spot on. He has a real Mr Rogers feel to him, doesn’t he? “Gee golly this is neat”
I think he wants to win, but I think he wants to win because he’ll be delivering these kids a cathartic (i.e. SUPER neat) experience, not because of his own fire. Wish he had a little more of fire within.
Everyone makes good points….like I said it is a risk/reward scenario. I want my team to win enough games to get to a bowl every single year. Scheduling three tough non-con games is flirting with disaster.
If the Beavers are not bowl eligible the next two years there will be a lot of hand wringning. If they beat TCU and Boise St then I will will look like a chump. Beaver history points towards the risk being higher than the reward. To me the only real reward would come from actually winning these games.
Schedule for the average P-10 team should be one toughie, , one toss up and one cupcake.
Let me say, the logical approach would be to slowly work towards this type of schedule with one tough OOC game per year. You’re definitely right in insinuating that.
“I want my team to win enough games to get to a bowl every single year. Scheduling three tough non-con games is flirting with disaster.”
A bowl game is nice, but do I *really* care about the Vegas Bowl, Sun Bowl, Emerald Bowl, etc? I only care because of the extra practices and the opportunity to finish ranked, but otherwise these third and fourth tier bowls are a drag. I’d rather watch a first rate game vs a first rate opponent. That’s why I’m reiterating that Boise St and TCU *are* our bowl games this year, and BCS level opponents at that. The great thing is since both are OOC, we could theoretically win the Pac-10 if we’re swept. So what is the downside, really, other than missing a 3rd/4th tier bowl?
1. National perception/recruiting
Neither of these things is fantastic as it is, so there’s a chance to improve both without much risk of injuring either.
I think it’s worth the risk. If the Beavers had an awful team I’d say no, but their team should be good enough to give them a chance in both games. Despite the fact people are talking about Katz, I think he will be fine in both those games; it’s the defense (specifically the DEs and LBs) that worry me the most.
One other thing: I disagree with your point that there’s a recent decrease in talent. The 2006 and 2007 classes were bad except for a few gems, but the past two seasons have been fantastic by this school’s standards.
The downside is that from a broader program perspective going to a bowl game has more benefits (which you mention) then losing tough OOC games and possibly missing out on a bowl bid. Hard to argue that any bowl money would not come in handy with the current shortfall.
The sweep the P-10 argument does not work for me because once again history does not show that is going to happen for the Beaver program anytime soon.
I did not comment on the recruiting class I think that was someone else.
Anyway, as a fan I am looking forward to the games and if they win both it could be a program changer. But just playing the odds (Riley’s track record) I don’t think it is going to happen.
Mckalk,
It’s about time we removed our chastity belt and see what kind of action ensues.
Sorry, Angry has had 5 cocktails and you can see what’s on his mind.
-Angry
Another misunderstood aspect of the Pac 10 and their bowls is that OSU gets as much as the rest of the conference whether they play in a bowl or not. In fact, not going to a bowl saves money on the front end.
Exactly…i meant to point that out.
No way around the extra practice benefit. I think most programs would rather play in a bowl game than stay home. If the Beavers can win some of these games than more power to them. Recent history does not point in that direction. I do not buy into the fearless program psychobabble. Setting up a winnable schedule is a strategy. What the program seems to be doing if flying by the seat of their pants with these so far unwinnable road games.
Setting up a ‘winnable’ schedule is just bunk. If I want to cheer for a team that’s so chicken-shit it has to schedule the College of Charleston and the Directional State Barber’s College, then I might as well cheer for the SEC and Big 12 South teams.
Then we will all live with a 5-7 record and we can all join the fire Riley thread!!!! And by winnable I mean one tough game, one toss up and one easy game. I do not think that has anything to do with being chicken. College football is a big business. Let us see how long the support lasts when the Beavs miss out on the bowl game for a couple of seasons. Do you remember all of the hand wringing after the last 5-6 season?
I think we’ll still go to a bowl, even if we go 1-2 in these 3 games.
5 more wins? Come on.
Also, in 2012 they’re looking to schedule an extra game since they’re traveling to Hawaii–smart move and that’s where you tack on an easy win.
I think we have a good schedule to start the next year. We catch TCU when their defense will be most vulnerable. I know Gary Patterson thinks his D will be better even with four starters leaving. He had the top ranked D in the nation despite losing seven starters the year before. So I don’t doubt TCU will be ready. But they lose some key players this year. Every year starters Jerry Hughes and Nick Richmond are gone. Their other starting corner and a good LB in Washington are gone. On the offensive line, they lose both tackles, including their three year mainstay LT, Marshall Newhouse.
The game may come down to how well their AA center, Jake Kirkpatrick, does against our AA-to-be DT Paea.
Louisville could be dangerous with their new coach, but they are really down at the moment. And BSU will have to take us on without a proven D-coordinator. Wilcox was great at shutting down the spreads he faced. But a new defensive scheme going against a more powerful O-line at OSU which is just going to try to push BSU down the field.
If Katz can get the ball to our skill guys, this could be a year to remember. I don’t expect that much this year, but next year should be a really fun year.
You are scaring me. Are you suggesting the Beaver/Frogged Horns game be shown on Cinemax at 2am instead of ESPN???
haha
I completely disagree that these opponents are good choices for the program. The risk/reward doesn’t make sense. There is no point in scheduling tough games in the early season. The goal of the team is to rack up wins and go UNDEFEATED. Nobody cares who OSU plays in the preseason as long as they are D-1. Lately every team that beats up on the Beavs uses the win to raise their position in the rankings and the Beavers have to scrap and claw to recover. The only tough preseason game that has helped(barely) was the LSU game. At least that was a close game. All the rest have been beat downs that make OSU look weak to the nation.
The BCS algo cares about the pre-season, but go undefeated in the pre-season, win the Pac-10 they will rank in the Top 10. If the Beavers start at 2-2 or 1-3 and they win the Pac-10 they might crack the Top 10, but it’s rare that a 3 or 4 loss team makes the Top 10.
This idea of scheduling tough games diminishes the strength of the Pac-10 conference too. OSU shouldn’t need to prove anything to anybody by scheduling tough games early in the season. I think it shows insecurity if anything.
If OSU wants a tough opponent they should play a good team in a top tier bowl, period.
If OSU plays these games in order to get cash, then they have other issues to deal with. Winning usually helps generate more cash last time I checked…..
The goal of the team is to go undefeated?
I think it’s to win the conference and make a BCS game, specifically the Rose Bowl. All of this could happen with an 0-3 OOC schedule, so what is this risk/reward you’re talking about?
On top of that, if the Beavers fall short of the Rose Bowl, we have these great big time games (with a BCS feel) as consolation. Beavers playing in Dallas, come on, man. That is great for the program and recruiting to be on the big stage in that area. I’m not even convinced they lose that game–we have a lot of camp ball to sift through before knowing that answer.
Angry,
Is Beavers do Dallas going to be on Cinemax too?
UGH! Beavers against Horned Frogs… that ought to be fun. I’m glad South Carolina isn’t on any future schedules.
The same probably goes for USC vs. USC… eh?
The Beavs might be good by this fall. But I’d rather have them warm up and get in sync before playing a Top 10 team away from home. Being 3-0 is better than 0-3, even if the loses are to Top 20 teams. The resulting perception is that OSU is not a Top 20 team. OSU will have to scratch and claw to get back in the top 20 again. Say hello to the Emerald Bowl…..
Yes, the goal is to go undefeated. From a players perspective, time is not on your side- you only have so many chances. Coaches and players want to make memories. All these guys want to go down in history.
There is no BCS feel for regular season non-conference games. Players and coaches don’t get rings/trophies for winning a regular season game. There are no goody bags or cool parties leading up to the game either. There is no DVD made of the game. OSU already plays in the Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl stadiums during the regular season. That’s two of the BCS stadiums.
Boise State and BYU stadiums suck compared to the Rose Bowl/Feista Bowl stadiums. If the Beavs get their ass kicked by TCU do you think the players will give a shit about playing at Jerry Jones stadium? I don’t. If they win, then it’s on to the next game.
A regular season game can have a BCS feel. All it takes are two elements:
1. A primetime slot on TV.
2. Two BCS level opponents
The TCU and Boise State games should have both (haven’t seen the tv time slot yet, but I’m sure it will be on at a good hour).
If you don’t believe me, go back and look at the OSU/USC prime time matchup, or the last few Civil Wars on ESPN. You’re saying those were all regular games?
Really? Oregon State versus Texas Christian is going to pull as many viewers as the Fiesta Bowl or Rose Bowl? Come on…
The big games you mentioned mattered to a small number of folks. The ratings were miniscule.
The risk of losing is greater than winning. Maybe I am not as bullish as you Angry? I remember the ass whuppings on primetime. The Beavers have had very few primetime victories in the early season.
I think the TCU/BSU/BYU/Louisville games are lame. I can’t get fired up to claim a win against TCU Horned Frogs, I’m sorry. Beating BSU is good, but not that great. They play on smurf turf in the middle of nowhere. Louisville/BYU? Who gives….
I just don’t run into many folks from any of those schools. Beating them is irrelevant. Beating USC, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, UW, WSU, ASU, UofA, and Oregon matter. 1 big 10 opponent a year makes sense. Bug East/Brokeback Mountain West are frickin lame.
Go undefeated in non-conf, win the Pac-10, and it’s BCS bowl time and real primetime!
Wait, now we’re talking about ratings?? When did that happen?
I clearly said atmosphere and feel, not ratings. I believe this is what they call a “strawman.”
Anyway, again, the atmosphere can be at a BCS level, especially if these are primetime/Thursday night games on ESPN. The rumblings were that both BSU and TCU would be in that slot. Any confirmation?
And back to your point on ratings…if the games are in those slots I do think they’ll score a much higher rating than the Vegas Bowl we just played in.
That would be classic. There is probably some obscure by-law where they can never meet except for the National Championship.
It’s for that reason alone that I never want the Beavs to play the spread.
Here’s what I don’t get. It’s not cynical to want respect for the Beavs.
Playing the best teams exposes weaknesses that can be corrected or patched over to play a tough conference schedule. Nobody will think twice if we lose because we’re going to be the underdogs.
It’s good to know our weaknesses, but it’s bad to point them out?
I want to play the best and win against them. I won’t be ashamed if we lose to the best. I’ll be unhappy, and I’ll mope for a couple days. But I won’t be ashamed.
And if we win?
There is nothing more cynical than not believing your team is good enough to beat anyone. There’s a difference between realistic expectations and being afraid to play someone who might make those expectations less than optimal.
The argument against a tough non-con schedule is the one used by wuss SEC and Big 12 South schools who feel that a top ten ranking is their entitlement. Teams from the Pac 10, the Big Televen, the Big East, the ACC and Notre Dame all play honorable schedules… even if they get the perennial top ten considerations in the rankings.
I don’t hear Ohio State and Notre Dame fans whining about having to lose to USC every year. They don’t like losing to them, but they don’t whine about having to play them. They expect to beat the best to prove they are the best. Ducks fans aren’t afraid to take on these opponents. They may be afraid of their players’ on and off field behavior. But they’re not whining about taking on these teams.
I have yet to read a BSU or TCU blog that contains whining about not playing patsies for their non-con games. Sure, they have patsies within their leagues. But they don’t get to BCS bowls if they have any fear.
We need that edge. If we don’t have it when the season begins, we need to have it beaten into us. We need to look across the field and see what winners look like when their ready to play. And we need to take that attitude from them… hopefully during the game itself.
“If we don’t have it when the season begins, we need to have it beaten into us. We need to look across the field and see what winners look like when their ready to play.”
Good point. We have begun seasons at a crawl for what, 5 or 6 years now?
Doubt it was Bob D’$ intention, but this should wake up the team bright and early.
Butler’s going to spoil my bracket. My Final Four teams are Michigan State, Kansas State, Kentucky and Duke. I have Duke beating Michigan State in the final. My West bracket is all sorts of blown up except for K State. And my Midwest bracket was beat up by Georgetown losing. I had them doing what Tennessee has done so far. Other than that, UNI over Kansas is my only miss in that bracket. Cornell over Wisconsin, UW over UNM and ODU over Notre Dame are my only other mistakes… except for Siena. I had them doing what Purdue did.
So I have to root for my Final Four to be complete to finish off my good bracket.
I’m over this tournament. When I turned the game off today at halftime I wondered again how they’re going to expand this thing and make it a success…
Three more thoughts I have on this approach to scheduling: 1) it kind of signals an insecurity of the program; its like saying “We don’t think we can get a big bowl game at the end of the year, so we’ll take ours up front where you don’t have to earn the highly ranked opponent, you just have to be willing to play (usually) one at their house with no (few) return(s) of the opponent to Reser; and 2) Riley want to give the kids a “big game” experience (e.g. LSU, Penn State, Dallas Cowboys stadium), but again, this seems to imply he doesn’t actually believe the team can earn those experiences other wise, and 3) DeCarolis needs money.
I’ll enjoy watching the games and pulling for them, but I expect OSU will go into the games believing they are underdogs – and if you believe it you are – and “hoping” to win instead of playing with the attitude they’ve shown at home against USC a few times lately.
So you’re saying that UO is playing at Neyland because they just can’t–or feel that they won’t–get that feeling at the end of the year? Miami at The Horseshoe and at Pitt says that they’re afraid of perception?
Who cares about the home return game? We beat you on your turf… we own you. You beat us at home, you were supposed to do that.
Not at all. I was saying what I think OSU’s program does. I think Kelly EXPECTS to win, early and late. When he went into the CW, he said, “Mike Riley is a great person and a fine coach. That said, the Ducks are going to win the Civil War.” And he was right. And by saying it, he also meant the Ducks were going to the Rose bowl. He also challenged his D to score 10 td’s, and they probably became close. Kelly may be irritating to some, but I like his offensive creativity, and I like that he expresses confidence, a killer instinct, and for a first year coach, he delivered on it pretty damn well. The bookend losses were certainly disappointing for them, but 10(?) wins and a rose bowl berth in your first year is not bad at all.
We don’t hear that out of Riley – we hear about providing great experiences for the kids at places like PSU. We hear about “neat deals,” and we hear about hoping to improve out of slow starts, and the team annually “finding,” instead of creating with goals and a mindset, its identity. I get that each squad is unique, and that a team needs to improve over the course of the season, but I think you have to say to young players: “This is what we play, we will get you there, we will win, and we will succeed” instead of waiting 7-8 games into the season to find the team’s identity.
I think Riley is a very good coach offensively, and probably average to slightly above on recruiting, but his lack of a killer instinct to me results in a team that hopes to win, and is plateaued at mid-low level bowls.
These are all excellent points, and they’re probably correct. But my point is that attitude will not change unless we go win the big games to start the year. We now know we can beat USC at home, so we expect it.
The downside would be if we give up at TCU and BSU when something goes wrong. A good showing on two losses shows the kids what level they need to attain to keep up with the big boys at the start of the season. A win at either gives us some attitude. A win at both tells the kids that their hard work gives them a chance anywhere against anyone.
Unless we flop, these games also give us unprecedented visibility in the areas we want to recruit. Texas speaks for itself, and the Northwest Champs–as much as UO wants to claim it–were Boise State. The world knows how hard it is to beat these teams at home–and away these past couple years. Wins at both give us grit and and attitude in terms of perception.
I personally think we’ll win at TCU. I think we’re going to go in with the attitude that we’re going to force our will… and they will know it and stack the defense to stop it. If they don’t stop our offense, they could be in for a long night. I worry a little more about BSU because they can answer with offense of their own.
I think bot hgames are going to be fun just thinking about them. I look forward them quite a bit. But I have to wait for five months.
Ah, but this is a tangent. Sure, I’ll address is:
Chip Kelly is so much more aggressive, no doubt. And that makes him a coach I’d rather have, even with all the off the field problems. I’m on the record as pretty much outlining and agreeing with every point you wrote, so clearly I don’t disagree with any of it. So yes, Kelly is much better, and yes, Riley isn’t aggressive, lacks confidence, hopes to win games, can’t win big games unless he’s the underdog, etc.
However, I can agree with all of that and still find these games to be exciting/BCS level for me as a fan, and a good gamble for the program as a whole. Since I wasn’t a fan the last time the Beavs made a BCS game, I’d like to experience that kind of game versus a non pac-10 foe.
These games make sense in terms of $, fan experience, recruiting (if they win), and national exposure (if they play respectable). The downside is slim. They simply can’t be afraid to play in these kinds of games, and they do have to learn how to *expect* winning, and I see no better place to do all of this than OOC where the risk is smaller.
And as far as downside, I’m not sure losing matters, even in recruiting. The Beavers have been getting drubbed in these kinds of games for years, and they just signed their best recruiting class. I think the Pac-10 standings matter a lot more, and like I said originally, the Beavers can still go out and win that even if they start 0-3.
What exactly is the risk??
After reading all of this. I would like the Beavers to play the Horned Frogs and Gamecocks every year in their OOC schedule. And yes, i think Cinemax needs to look into programming some sports. HBO and Showtime do it. Can you imagine doing the play by play when the Wild Beaver goes up against a stacked Gamecock line?
I thought of another thing. The teeming metropolis of Corvallis doesn’t actually teem with bodies until classes start on Sept. 27. A good showing in Dallas could help us come bowl season. If our fans travel well for a non-con away game, that should translate to a good selection.
Nobody’s going to want to watch EWU roll into a half empty Reser to play the Beavs. Not exactly the stuff of legend.
Will it ever end?
http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindbeaversbeat/2010/03/osu_loses_yet_another_defensiv.html
I thought the youngsters would get good time. I was excited to see Henry and Braun play on the end. BUT NOT BY ATTRITION!!!!
Props to him for having his priorities straight. But can we stop the bleeding please?
And does anyone have a clue as to why Rosa is fourth on the depth chart… other than injury?
I hope Glover comes in ready to work.
There’s going to be no red shirts at this pace.
Who the heck is this Kell guy?
The talent behind Miller doesn’t have a word for it. Just imagine an eye roll.
I think Henry will be very good. Probably needs to add weight to play every down, but he has a pass rush.
I really like the Braun move. I saw him during his senior year in the 5A championship. He drove the TE and LT back and tackled them along with the QB on one play. He scraped the line nicely… so much that he tackled the trap guard along with the RB in the hole on a couple plays. And when he gets a free shot on someone everything is downhill. He just played with a pad level that was too high for a college DE. Seumalo will fix him up nicely.
I still want to know what’s up with Rosa.
“He just played with a pad level that was too high for a college DE. Seumalo will fix him up nicely.”
They said the same thing about McCants and 3 years later…
Braun did show a knack for putting the ball on the ground also.
I like it. We aren’t good enough right now for an at-large BCS berth, let alone the NC game, so losing OOC games does nothing to hurt our chances at our only real shot at a BCS game – the Rose Bowl. We could go 0-3 (1-2 more likely) then be ready to compete in the Pac-10. If he does nothing else, Riley does seem to be able to coach his kids through terrible starts. Then we get to “feel good” about “finishing strong” and “coaching kids up” and all the other BS.
So in the end, it’s a win-win. Paychecks come first right now for Bob.
“Paychecks come first right now for Bob”
This is a good thing if we’re truly 5 mil in the red. DA, Matt Moore, et al need to step up and donate to their roots. Gotta keep Craig Robinson and build to do so.
Did anyone catch this one?
http://highschoolsports.oregonlive.com/news/article/-8579891493576309549/silverton-hires-father-of-osu-signee-sean-mannion-as-football-coach/