03.Apr.2016 Oregon State vs UConn

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My quick take on this game: I’d like to see OSU go with both Hamblin and Gulich on the floor at the same time. Gulich has improved a lot where she’s no longer a liability, and the length could be disruptive. Then go with Wiese/Weisner and Hunter. Sub Gabby as needed if they want more D. Reuck should milk that lineup for all he can…just ask them to play most of the minutes in this [likely] final game.

I’d put the odds of the Beavs winning this game as 1 in 20. There’s definitely a chance with a great performance and UConn being slightly off (and OSU forcing them to be off even more).

Go Beavs

75-59, Uconn is my prediction, but I’m hoping for that 1 out of 2o game.

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  • VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
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    Could be first but I’ll decline and defer to the second half. JB

  • AfghanBeav AfghanBeav says:
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    I like your lineup tremendously. If the two “bigs” can defend the rim and our outside shooters are hot from three early, this game is winnable. I will agree with your odds as well. However, if the threes are not falling, we are not going to drive and score on this team, and it will get ugly, fast.

    • angry angry says:
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      Yeah I have a feeling Uconn is going to put the clamps down on the 3 point line, and Ruth misses a lot of layups so she’s not reliable inside. Gotta think that’s what Uconn will do, so the Beavs chance is to defend like mad and hope every open 3 they do get goes down. Tough.

    • silverstream055 silverstream055 says:
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      Agree completely. 3-point shots can be the great equalizer. OSU will probably need to hit lots of threes to keep pace with UConn. Also, OSU’s top three players need to stay out of foul trouble, so they can stay on the court for most of the game. If those two things happen, OSU can win this game. And that would be kind of a big deal.

  • Beavergopher Beavergopher says:
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    Woke up Friday with a premonition that they pull the upset of the ages. Perhaps it was acid reflux?
    I do think they are not going to be intimidated, which is half the battle. The key is who can guard Stewart. Gulich has turned into a good player, but probably does not have the quickness to handle her. I have a feeling that Seigler will play significant minutes and may draw that assignment. Hansen will play her normal role. She is too good a defender.
    The three point shooting will be key. Need all of the big three to play great. Go Beav’s.

    • angry angry says:
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      I woke up with a dream that I had a heart attack, which is along the same lines. Put this one in the books.

  • osbeavs says:
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    538 agrees with your prediction (1/20 chance to win):

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-march-madness-predictions/womens/

    • angry angry says:
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      Damn, I just did it in my head. Guess that’s why I got a 100 in stats.
      (cue angry@angry)

  • scotty says:
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    I’m gonna miss the game 🙁 DVR is set so I can watch it if they pull the shocker upset, at least.

    I’ll be counting on you all for witty, insightful commentary or just swearing. It’s all good

  • issaquahbeav says:
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    I agree with others here that OSU will not be intimidated. That said, however, a Beaver victory is not likely. I’ll go with 83-71 UCONN. I think OSU would get huge props if they lose by less than 10 points. I saw UCONN was something like 118-1 over the last 119 games and had blown out its opponents by more than 10 points in each of those wins.

    • thatguy says:
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      Yeah it’s not even funny at this point, I think I read a link that this year 25 of their 36 wins have been by 40 or more points, with like 10 of those being 50 or more and 4 60 point wins. Granted, they play in a weak conference but as we can see even in the tourney they are killing teams.

      I think because of our defense they might not hit 80. They can hit 70 considering I feel like their middle ground is what Stanford did to our team at Maples this year. So we have to make shots. It’s a long shot, but hey its 40 minutes, 2 baskets on each end. Rules are the same. Just gotta play.

      • beavergopher beavergopher says:
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        The odds makers have failed to take into account of my lucky Retro Benny shirt, pint glass, and the bottle of Deschutes Black Butte XXVII I have reserved for the game. U Conn is screwed.

  • Theboneyard says:
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    Go lady Beavs!

  • Outcast says:
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    UConn is the measuring stick for how good teams really are this season, so we’re about to see how good Oregon State really is. No matter how this plays out, this has been a truly incredible season, and I’m hoping they have a miracle and two more wins in them.

  • angry angry says:
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    Bad start.

  • angry angry says:
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    Stewart 2 early fouls. Huge.

  • angry angry says:
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    Now that I’ve seen uconn, no way they are winning this game.
    These girls would beat the OSU men

    • whiskey soaked napkins whiskey soaked napkins says:
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      they certainly haven’t missed so far.

    • BlackBandits BlackBandits says:
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      I said that more than a month ago……they move the ball so good it’s stupid.

    • Outcast says:
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      You don’t win every game in a season by double digits (including wins on the home floors of other #1 seeds) if you aren’t really, REALLY good. As we were saying last weekend, they are so far ahead of the rest of the field this year that it is just ridiculous. It is going to take the worst game of the season by UConn and the best game of the year by Oregon State for them to even have a chance.

  • angry angry says:
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    Hamblin is so bad at layups. She’s the Duvivier of the women’s team.

  • beavergopher beavergopher says:
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    Ruth with the missed point blank shot. Hunter needs to shoot. Passed up two good shots already.

  • True Beavieler says:
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    Why rush the lay in when you should WANT her to try make a block attempt w 2 fouls???

  • angry angry says:
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    More like .005% chance of winning

  • True Beavieler says:
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    The ‘strategy’ of having Ruth not guard the perimeter…..is a crapoy one

  • angry angry says:
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    Well that was ugly.

    Good season.

  • scotty says:
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    Go Orangewomen!

  • Outcast says:
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    UConn is rotating better on defense than some professional teams do. Gotta give props, they are insanely well-coached.

    • angry angry says:
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      It’s nuts. Maybe they’re men/trannies. I don’t know any women who move like that.

      • wrigg3 says:
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        Are you saying you have experience with men/trannies how they move huh?

        • angry angry says:
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          Yeah, I am. You against that or something? #needAsocialJusticeWarriorASAP

          • Jack Jack says:
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            Just tell them to take a walk on the wild side.

  • RanYakumo RanYakumo says:
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    Good job, Sydney!

  • beavergopher beavergopher says:
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    U Conn could help out by missing a shot. Role players need to take shots. Go after Stewart.

    • BlackBandits BlackBandits says:
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      Then the other 4 just start drilling their shots. If you could play 6-7 players against them then you might have a chance.

  • True Beavieler says:
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    I love how UConn cannot believe they don’t get every call lol

  • angry angry says:
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    Hunter is killing them. Can’t pass and totally overmatched

  • GreatWhiteHunter says:
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    We are passing up a lot of open shots. Need to relax and take what they give.

  • beavergopher beavergopher says:
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    I hope Ruth is better with rockets than she is with layups.

    • angry angry says:
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      Maybe she’ll invent a rocket that can make layups.

  • nicebeaver nicebeaver says:
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    This ESPN live stream is lagging big time for me. Anybody else? The NCAAM march madness feed was 10x better

  • davemandeluxe davemandeluxe says:
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    Beavs trying too hard to get it inside. UConn is wise to that and getting turnovers. Just go for the jumpers and pray that you can shoot well.

  • beavergopher beavergopher says:
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    Whenever somebody is guarded by Stewart they should shoot and hope for a foul.

  • angry angry says:
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    This is like the Harlem Globetrotters vs the Washington Generals.

  • davemandeluxe davemandeluxe says:
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    Well, they’re going for jumpers like I was saying and no joy there either. UConn is just too good.

  • whiskey soaked napkins whiskey soaked napkins says:
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    pretty much how I expected this to go. Too many turnovers. UConn is just too good at everything they do. Still been a great season ladies. At least baseball starts at 4 for further disappointment

  • nicebeaver nicebeaver says:
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    Ed Ray on the radio thinks we’re still going to get the W.

  • beavergopher beavergopher says:
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    If Reuck bunts with no outs in the second half I’ll be pissed.

  • nicebeaver nicebeaver says:
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    Interview with Lindsay Schnell on the radio next. Interested to hear where the best food in Indy can be found.

    *spoiler alert* its in her stomach already

  • West PDX says:
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    What the hell? Wake the F up Beavers. Play your dang game…and some frickin’ defense.

  • Quatre Quatre says:
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    Unfortunately this is the direction we all knew this game was headed. UCONN is just a different beast, and 1/20 odds is overly generous. 1/50 is about right.

    Looking ahead to next year, this will be an interesting lineup. Starters likely to be: Wiese, Gulich, McWilliams and Hansen. 5th spot is open. Likely Orum starts the year as the 5th, but I imagine Green and Thropay may get a look as a grinding blue collar type 4 if either shows the poise and ability coming into next season. Sitting out a year may have helped Green in this regard.

  • beavergopher beavergopher says:
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    That court rivals the Duck’s for ugly.

  • True Beavieler says:
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    Ruth…..brutal

  • beav4ever says:
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    Hamlin and Hunter have been absolutely awful.

  • beavergopher beavergopher says:
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    Hunter is playing bad. Won’t shoot open shots and horrible passes.

  • True Beavieler says:
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    I hate to admit it, but the huskies are making tons of wiiiiiide open threes because we’re literally getting lost out there. I thought it was from great passing & screens…..but not lately

  • RanYakumo RanYakumo says:
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    The only thing uglier than this game is the court design. Who thought that brick design inside the 3 point arc was a good idea?

    • angry angry says:
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      Probably the guy who designed the OSU bra uniforms.

  • angry angry says:
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    This is the closest the women will ever get to a title. That’s the disappointing part. If they had a team that could just reload it wouldn’t be too bad.

    • beavergopher beavergopher says:
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      They will still be pretty good and he is signing better players.

    • Bill says:
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      The 2016 class that’s coming in is better than the seniors who are leaving when they came in.

    • Angry@angry says:
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      Yes Angry, without a doubt Rueck’s 6th year is the ceiling.

      • BlackBandits BlackBandits says:
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        I haaaaaaaate to say this but………….A@A is right. Even the players that didn’t play much, or at all, now know what it takes. We all saw the progression over the last 3 years of this team. They have learned how to win and what it takes to win. It very well could be the start of a real elite program.

        • angry angry says:
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          So you and A@A are going on record and saying they will make it to a championship game?

          Because by disagreeing this is the farthest they will get that’s what you’re saying.

          • BlackBandits BlackBandits says:
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            With recruiting, which will now be on an up tick because of a final four showing and a great position in the brackets, yes. Look what he did with a mediocre class (the seniors). He’s getting really good recruits, who have a jump on this year’s seniors. Are they mcdonalds all americans? No. But Rueck has shown he can coach and by getting better players in his system, he should be able to make it to a championship. I know it’s a cool edgy thing to be pessimistic about beaver sports…..but I think this is one of the few bright spots as far as athletics goes. So yes I’ll go on record as saying they can make a championship game. Will it be next year…….no, but within in 3 years I bet they make it.
            Book it.

          • Angry@angry says:
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            They will most likely take a step back next year. Losing Ruth hurts, Siegner’s minutes were under appreciated. We don’t have anyone who can create their own shot like Jaime, at this point. But, knowing Rueck, I’d say he could coach another 20 years and yes, make it to a championship and even win one.

          • blackbug says:
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            Technically getting back to the final four and losing by less would be closer, just saying. Time will tell, but I definitely think that Rueck is well on his way to building an elite team every year. Next year might see a slight decline, but probably not by much. He has all the pieces to reload.

            Next years has Pivec coming in as the highest rated recruit ever to come to Oregon State. The next 2 recruits are 4 stars. They are ranked 24, 42 (Kat Tudor), and 65 (Madison Washington) out of the top 100. If the men’s team every recruited 3 top 100 players we would definitely know about it. The 4th recruit ( Janessa Thropay) is no slouch although not ranked in the top 100. They are still in the hunt for the 2/3 ranked player in the nation.

            I would bet that they will be back in the final four soon, just can’t guarantee it.

          • angry angry says:
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            pessimistic? i called this a final 4 team months ago.

            casey has had top 10ish (~) recruiting classes for a decade and never got back to a title series. it takes more than a good coach and great classes.

          • BlackBandits BlackBandits says:
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            “it takes more than a good coach and great classes”………what else is there? Comparing baseball and women’s basketball…..really? Come on man, not even close to the same thing. Correlation does not imply causation.

          • angry angry says:
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            what else is there?

            Should be self-evident, but I’ll bite.

            The draw, seed, luck, team chemistry, right mix of veteran leadership, injuries, strength of the league, strength of other leagues, etc etc etc etc.

  • beavergopher beavergopher says:
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    Ruth with another missed layup. Ugh.

  • ObjCritic says:
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    I know its not technically the championship because, well, they didn’t make it to the the championship game, but OSU made it to the best team in the country….So they’ll finish 3? 4, depending on the quality of the UW/Syracsue loss….

    I think Rueck can get more talented bigs yet (Ruth HAS to hit the lay-ups for god’s sake), but a tournament run is challenging. He could put together a better team and still not get this far.

    Great year for the women! I hope they get a nice welcome on their return to Oregon and the OSU Campus.

    • scotty says:
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      Or he could put together a worse team and get farther. I mean look at Washington

    • OSU82 says:
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      On either the men’s side or women’s, anytime a team gets to the Final Four has to be counted as a great year. Too bad UConn was waiting in that side of the bracket. I was a bit disappointed the game was as lopsided as it was but a loss is a loss, whether one point or 30. Still a great season for OSU WB.

  • GOAH BEAVERS says:
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    Imagine if you will, living in a world where the Oregon State Beavers are relevant in the sports people actually care about.

  • cj cj says:
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    I thought that Stewart should have fouled out in the 3rd quarter. I counted at least 8 fouls on her. and when UConn packed players under the basket there was so much shoving and hacking it’s no wonder Ruth had trouble with layups. If they call a few of those it loosens the defense and gives the Beavs a little room to breathe.

    Not saying any of that would have changed the outcome, but it certainly would have made it seem less one-sided.

  • scotty says:
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    Grimace and gang get blown out by 21. THANK GOD

  • Mud&Sticks Mud&Sticks says:
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    An apropos(?) play on the old Timex ad: We took a licking but we’ll keep on ticking….

    http://adage.com/article/adage-encyclopedia/timex-corp/98905/
    snip
    John Cameron Swayze, former anchor of NBC’s “Camel News Caravan,” was hired as spokesman for live, dramatic Timex spots based on the torture-test theme. Timex watches eventually survived tests that involved paint mixers, jackhammers, washing machines, dishwashers, water-skiers, a porpoise and an 87-foot dive off the cliffs at Acapulco. The Timex slogan, “It takes a licking and keeps on ticking,”
    snip

    • beavergopher beavergopher says:
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      Taking a licking is a poor choice of words when referring to womens B-ball.

      • Mud&Sticks Mud&Sticks says:
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        Yeah. I considered going with Huskies Give Beavers A Good Licking but thought better of it. Figured I should ease into the topic instead of allowing my sense of humor (or lack thereof) free rein.

  • helmsley says:
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    Fortunately, not around for either baseball or the wbb big loss. I suspected that with all the pre-game hoopla Uconn was laughing it up. However, . . I checked softball scores and the Beav softball team swept Stanford this weekend.

    • blackbug says:
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      It was great to see Softball sweep Stanford. Most years that would be considered great/amazing feat. This year it is just a good accomplishment. I was surprised how poor Stanford is in Softball this year.

  • ObjCritic says:
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    Kerry Eggers previews next year’s roster:

    http://portlandtribune.com/pt/9-news/300411-174496-on-to-next-year

    • beavergopher beavergopher says:
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      Shorter and and quicker. Gabby needs to practice shooting a lot. Some of her misses are brutal.
      Signing Sabrina I would be huge.

      • OSU82 says:
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        I agree there. Weisner is going to be a tough vacancy to fill. No one currently on the team has anything close to her game, so it will be a challenge to replace her production. Wiese still needs a mid-range game. Though she gets the occasional drive to the basket, she still is mostly a 3 pt. specialist, and a streaky shooting one at that. Hansen is a strong defensive player, and could really help the team if she could become better offensively. She’s a dreadful shooter and really needs to spend a lot of time with a shooting coach and getting some shots up in the gym over the off-season.

        • oneoldbeav oneoldbeav says:
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          Yes, Weisner will be difficult to replace; so was Ali Gibson. Rueck, I think, has a long term vision and picks gals he feels he can develop. Still it isn’t easy to see who, in addition to Syd, will be the sparkplugs next year. The departure of the seniors may free up some who have been in their shadows.

          At this point I am a bit concerned with Taylor Kalmer’s attitude. Just something about her body language I have noticed. OTOH, I’m pumped about Katie McWilliams prospects.

          Wouldn’t it be a kick to see Marie become a vocal (stubborn/refuse to lose type) positive leader?

          • beavergopher beavergopher says:
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            Interesting observation about Kalmer. She looks to be a a very good outside shooter. Probably thinks she should be playing more.

          • Bill says:
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            Just remember the higher rated the recruits become, the bigger the ego. Rueck seems to have a good handle on things like that.

            If they sign Ionescu, she could step on for Weisner right away.

          • BlackBandits BlackBandits says:
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            The last time a German got a stubborn/refuse to lose attitude, it cost the world millions of lives.

    • Bill says:
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      I don’t see too much of a drop off. Scoring will come more from the outside. Rueck will have to adjust the style of the team to be more guard oriented but should still be able to make a deep postseason run. Signing Sabrina would force him to go to a 5 out type offense.

      • ObjCritic says:
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        They ought to bring in Ray Allen (Curry too expensive) and send everyone to shooting boot camp… : )

        Also, could use some better movement on part of players without the ball and improved passing to them…

        She may not have quite the height or be the shot blocker Hamblin was, the presence of Gulich means the inside game won’t need to be abandoned. Her offensive game will likely improve markedly between camp and the PAC tournament next year.

        It will be interesting to see what the indirect and cumulative effects of this run will be on the team and how they (the players) bring along and integrate the FR.

        • OSU82 says:
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          I’ve wondered if these gals, when they are starting to play in grade school or middle school, just don’t have the strength to get the ball to the rim on the longer shots. I see a lot of the gals at the D-1 level shooting this sort of shot-put style off the shoulder that perhaps they developed when they started to play because that’s the only way they could get the ball up the rim? Unfortunately, like many things in sports, form means a lot, and they just never develop into good shooters because they just don’t have good form. Weisner has it, which is why she was the teams best outside shooter and also the best free throw shooter. KT Mac has a good stroke, though she didn’t shoot very well this year. Wiese does not, and will always probably be a streaky shooter. Hamblin is the only player on the OSU team that shot over 50% from the field, and most of her shots are inside 6 feet. UConn has six players that shot over 50% on the season, and a 7th that was just below–and you saw some of the result of that Sunday. Anyway,its just a significant basketball skill that is lagging on this team. Truth be told, you could say the same thing about the mens team.

          • oneoldbeav oneoldbeav says:
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            A pretty logical statement, surprised to see a negative vote. Perhaps an offended Wiese fan?

      • Jack Jack says:
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        I’d rather see O Tech’s fast break system installed. And then they can break it down to a 4-1 high post. I’m certain OSU has the talent and speed to run Miles’ system.

        Rueck will end up looking like Miles in the end. I think he can look the same in the win column too. If UCONN is what the future of women’s hoops looks like, then we need a team who can shoot and not let a team like them get set on D. We’re going to have the shooters.

    • blackbug says:
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      I think Gulich will surprise many in replacing Hamblin as a defensive replacement, although I do not think she will completely do replace her. Having said this I also think that Breanna Brown may be our biggest post defensive presence next year. I have always felt she is pretty good down there.

      • oneoldbeav oneoldbeav says:
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        I expect Gulich to cut down on the turnovers which were so often the result of Hamblin’s inability to corral imperfect passes. OTOH, she may not match Ruth’s block total but I wouldn’t bet much on that; what she lacks in height (6-5 vs Ruth at 6-6) she’ll likely make up for in a more aggressive attitude.

        Brown down there? I don’t know.

  • beavergopher beavergopher says:
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    OT: The guy at BTD was less than impressed with the football team after watching practice. Does this guy have any cred?

    • Mud&Sticks Mud&Sticks says:
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      He had some interesting/sobering observations including the one about Baldwin. I won’t be surprised if we see a lot of passes get batted down this year and Baldwin get fired (cuz he’s acting like an OC).

      Imo we have to be patient and allow the coaching staff several years to get this thing turned around.

      OTOH – I haven’t been following the offers that closely but the few times I did check I was troubled to see that there were offers going to kids who had few if any offers from the competition. So I quit checking.

      In addition to great coaching, talent is required in order to be competitive.

      I’m known for stating the obvious.

      P.S. Here’s the link in case anyone is interested
      http://www.buildingthedam.com/2016/4/2/11353886/oregon-state-open-practice-impressions

      • wannabeav says:
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        the comment I picked up on that offers some promise– that the defense last year was ahead of this year’s at a comparable point. Of course, that’s because last year’s offense, we now know, was so bad.

    • nicebeaver nicebeaver says:
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      Saw that too. Danny Moran at the Oregonian had a pretty similar assessment as the BTD guy.

      The news that QB play isn’t impressive has me concerned and bummed. I know, need to give the new staff some time, but I’ve been waiting for that glimmer of hope that things are improving, and just havent seen it.

      • Jack Jack says:
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        I’m hoping GA is concentrating on getting the run game and spread blocking ingrained in the O-line. So I love love love the news that Cook and Nall are impressing. That’s a lot of Newton’s 1st Law headed downhill.

        The perimeter players will get it figured out once the trench is set.

    • scotty says:
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      Football? Please. We’re a women’s basketball school. Football is so last year.

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