Home Football Arizona @ Oregon State

Arizona @ Oregon State

252

Fall is here, ring the bell…

I’m thinking Tate finally runs, and he could be the difference. If not, it’s a pick ’em game because the offense are both solid and the defenses both suck eggs. Rain is a wildcard. Gun to my head, I pick Arizona in a close game, but given Tate isn’t running, chance of rain/cool weather, home crowd, and Beavs building confidence (even off their loss), my biased opinion is the good guys.

30-27

Go Beavs!

252 COMMENTS

  1. Just to note there is a 60% chance of rain at game time. Rain goes down from there as the game goes on down to 20% to 30% by games end. Temps in the mid to low 60s. I’d bring rain gear just in case. Oh, wait you only get a small bag to carry it in with.

  2. AZ boys are used to 95 degrees F right now in Tucson. Our high of 68 with showers will disorient them and make them think it is their winter. The key is to strike early while they are dazzled by leaves with colors. Dude….

    • Good call on the weather factor. I really hope Togiai and Bradford play this weekend – it could make or break this game. On an unrelated note, about 70% of the bets in Vegas have been on the side of the Beavers, but still about 6.5 point underdogs as of now. I’m thinking this should be a shootout: 41-37 Beavers.

  3. PHIL STEELE REPORT (#80 Arizona @ #105 Oregon State, 9/22/2018)

    Last time here Arizona trailed 14-0 into the 2Q & after a FG on the 1H’s final play trailed 21-10 (-45 yd/+2 FD). Arizona never got closer than double digits in the 2H and Oregon State won 42-17. Arizona has dropped 14 of the last 18 in the series but has won 2 of the last 3. The Beavers are 5-17 the last 4 years in Pac-12 home games (0-4 in 2017 -14 ppg). Arizona is trying to make Khalil Tate a pocket passer and he has just 41 yards rushing on the year. Arizona finally broke a 0-5 SU and ATS streak but actually was outgained at the half by Southern Utah in a 62-31 win. Last year with Tate rushing for 206 yards the Cats had a school record 534 yards rushing. Despite a 30-7 deficit mid 2Q last week in Reno, the Beavers nearly delivered the comeback victory against Nevada missing a 33 yd game winning FG as time expired. Oregon St had 28-17 FD and 540-357 yd edges. Arizona is just 3-11-1 ATS as Pac-12 road chalk. Oregon St has played to an average game grade of 81.3 and Arizona to 82.0 so that favors the home dog.
    ARIZONA 40 OREGON STATE 37

    Position by Position Edges:

    WHEN ARIZONA HAS THE BALL:
    Arizona QB/WR’s vs Oregon State DB’s: ARIZ +1.81
    Arizona RB’s vs Oregon State LB’s: ARIZ +0.44
    Arizona OL vs Oregon State DL: ARIZ +2.01

    WHEN OREGON STATE HAS THE BALL:
    Arizona DB’s vs Oregon State QB/WR’s: ARIZ +1.20
    Arizona LB’s vs Oregon State RB’s: ORST +0.25
    Arizona DL vs Oregon State OL: ORST +1.50

    MISCELLANEOUS:
    Special Teams: ARIZ +1.47
    Kicking Game: ARIZ +0.46
    Coaching Staff: ARIZ +1.75

    POSITIONAL EDGE: ARIZ +7.39

    Projected Final Statistics (ARIZ – ORST)
    Rushing Yards: 265 – 226
    Passing Yards: 249 – 242
    Yardage Total: 514 – 469
    Total Points: 43 – 36
    Experience Rankings: 57 – 73
    Team Schedule Strength: 64 – 31

    COMPUTER TOTALS:
    Las Vegas Line: Arizona by 6.5
    Las Vegas Total: 75.5 Points
    +/- Ratings: Arizona by 6.0
    Game Grade: Oregon State by 2.3
    Computer Yards: Arizona 514-469
    Computer Points: Arizona 43-36

    Calculated Margin of Victory: Arizona by 12

  4. Weird typos in the post fixed.
    Also, I hate this start time. 2pm MT ruins my day. I wanted to go hike up in Rocky Mountain, and now I’m stuck deciding between that and watching a bad Beav team. If they get destroyed, total regret for not going out. One shouldn’t have to make these decisions.

    • Just turn off notifications, dvr and hike. Then watch later.

      I’ve had a shit ton of kids in the last few years so do to the lifestyle changes I can hardly ever watch anything live.

      Watching this way I drink less booze, can skip commercials, and don’t feel like I got kicked in the nuts if we blow it at the end.

      • Mine are just getting to that age where we’re spending a chunk of every Saturday at soccer games. Fortunately the Beavs usually play late enough that I’m home in time to catch it live. Still, life is more important than live sports on tv. DVR or just follow it on twitter periodically

        • Not sure. Always have had cable or dish.

          I’m sure you could find a work around. I know one of my buddies was using his parents login like 8 years ago and had an external hard drive set up for recording off of his computer.

          I’ve never looked into it myself. I can ask

          • I’m just going to do a shorter day trip, watch the game, and try to get to RM NP tomorrow.
            Let me know about that recording on the PC thing. Never looked into that, but that would be huge.
            Highly recommend cutting cable, BTW. Total waste.

          • A buddy of mine does the screen recorder thing, but says it take up a ton of memory for poor quality results, since games are so long.

            Plus you have to make sure all of your screensaver and sleep settings are disabled.
            Might as well stick a camcorder in front of your tv while you’re out.

          • Ran up the hill and got a grouse and a quail, back home for some bacon and eggs and the beginning of the OSU/AZ game then off to the hole/Stanford game. Gotta drink some more coffee while I’m home too haha.

    • Arizona didn’t punt at all vs Southern Utah, and our game last year vs Arizona was our worst of the season, worse than the CW. Luton is out and we’ll have Garrettson Jr in there, so they’ll stack the box vs Jefferson. We’re in trouble.

      Back in my day Jonathan Smith beat these guys 33-9 in Tucson and then 38-3 in Corvallis, and then DA beat them by the same score 38-3, then won again 52-23, and then again 28-14 in Tucson. Seems like a long time ago now.

      • GA even obliterated these guys two years ago. It’s not like Arizona is some powerhouse. Now, Luck O’ the Beavs could come in to play and Tate could return to form as a runner, but I don’t think there’s that big of a difference between Luton and Blount at this point. The Beavs can win or lose against other mediocre opponents with either one of them at QB.

        • I really don’t recall Sumlin having any teams that put up big rush in yardage. As far as I can remember, he had an explosive offense when Manziel was at the helm, but most of that was broken plays and Johnny football and crew out athleting teams.

          RichRod with the help of our current o line coach on the other hand, put together Some huge rushing based teams.

          So who knows if he’ll ever be as effective as he was last year

  5. Starting to look like that USC transfer, Ross, will end up at Hawaii. I guess that’s not a bad way to spend your final year or 2 of college for free.

    Oh yeah, and GoBeavs and GoCard.

    • TPB……Riley is still fucking them over from afar. The whining about Gebbia leaving is going to reach a fever pitch after this game. Frost should have stayed at UCF, better access to talent, apparently he wanted to coach for the most delusional fan base in college football. They should just put Tom Osborne in a Lazy Boy on the sideline and call it good for a HC.

          • He’s still messing Nebby up… to the tune of $2.6m this year and $2.2m next year… after the hatchet job he performed while he was actually in an office on that campus.

            Nebby players look so slow compared to Michigan. I haven’t seen them play this poorly since last year against Iowa… and tOSU… and Minny… and Wiscy… and….

  6. Strategy should be to get Jefferson going. And Blount with quick easy completions. Nothing fancy. No need to go for the big plays.

    Arizona is no juggernaut. Don’t beat yourself.

    • Not to go on a rant…but… I get ranting about plays and player performance, I don’t get the point of beating a player up on social media or irl, how does that help them get their head straight?

      Reminds me of the time I talked to Joe Halahuni after the play where he dropped that end zone catch he came out to his car that had been keyed, WTF.

  7. So Daniel Rodriguez gets 60 plus yards on his first punt, and then we switch punters? Still a good result for Lochner, but odd to pull the hot leg

  8. Out gained 347-122. Major regression in all phases. Blount and the O having a rough day. We need the O to be on point to have a chance in any game. The D lacks talent and today seems to lack energy today.

    • Exactly. You gotta take a chance there. What’s the worst that will happen if you throw the ball 20 yards down field and it’s picked? You’re probably punting anyway. Nothing is worse than being a bad team playing boring football.

  9. Missed the whole first half cuz I live in Maui and it’s so hard to find a bar with Pac 12 (Thx Larry scott). Stats look like were letting them run wild. Anything else that I missed other than being in the red zone and then getting 2 holding penalties and a fumble. No wonder we put up yds but don’t score.

  10. While the run defense has been terrible. 28 points in the 4th quarter is about expected. Only 7 points on offense? Yikes. No flow, Blount has looked terrible.

    • Both our lines are getting man handled.

      Written after the 3rd play of the game. No protection, no running lanes, etc. Arizona is just man handling our lines.

    • Compared to Ohio State night and day. He called a great game considering how overmatched they were. Used lots of screens etc. I feel like they’re playing close to the line to stop the run and short passes. Then u have to take some shots deep especially at this point.

        • Huge part of the problem. I was pretty pissed that we weren’t taking any deep shots, but it’s because the line is just not winning the battle today. Same goes for the running game, hard to run well when you get no holes to hit.

  11. These pac 12 network announcers are horrible.

    ‘Thats a sack! Well technically not a sack because he didn’t lose yards.’

    Yeah, technically that’s the definition of a sack, the QB would have to be tackled for a loss to be a sack. Technically.

  12. I wrote after last week this team would not win another game. The WORST team in the Pac-12 is leaps and bounds better than Nevada. Arizona is terrible and they’ve managed 14 whole points.

    I’ve seen the Beavs do some stupid shit in my years (two backwards punts for example) but today was a new one. 17 play drive that gets in the red zone and ends in a punt. Way to keep finding new ways to fuck up and disappoint me Beavs.

    I’ve seen enough to know these guys are terrible. We have some skill players at receiver and in the backfield but not much else. O and D lineman recruiting needs to be a priority.

    Game 1 – Beavs score 31 points against tOSU. Over half of those came in garbage time against the backups. Hooray! Reason for optimism. Not here. D sucks and gave up 77.

    Game 2 – Beavs win after impressive first half, non impressive 2nd. Hooray! Reason for optimism. Not here. FCS opponent. ‘Nuf said.

    Game 3 – Come back on the road and lose after falling behind 30-7. Hooray! We almost came back and won. Not here. Nevada is fucking terrible and worse than the worst Pac-12 team.

    It is what it is. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Until the powers that be at Oregon St take winning in football seriously, this is the garbage we’ll get. Which is why I’ve said we should drop down to the mountain west conference.

    I’m out until the upcoming men’s hoops season failure

    • Which is why I’ve said we should drop down to the mountain west conference.

      I’ve been saying that for like a decade. People get so mad.

      Seen some Wyoming and CSU and both would beat us soundly. Keep in mind Wyoming is the least populated State in the Country, and that team would beat us soundly.

        • Didn’t we just get 10 mil in donations and blow it on Gary Andersen? I’m not sure we can be trusted with money.

          Ideally we need better players and all that, but the leadership is incompetent. At that point you have to consider teams on your level, but I actually think the Mountain West is better than the Beavs right now.

          • The $10m went to the VFC.

            But if GA wasn’t at least honorable in leaving the money on the table, the poor decisions made would have been spent on him.

            We know for sure what Bikey would have done with the contracted payout had he stayed and continued to regress at OSU.

            So, while it’s not OSU’s smart and efficient use of funds that is at fault, we’ve lucked into a revenue positive situation.

        • Because what they’re currently and have been attempting is working out so well.

          Lose long enough and most of the fan base gives up and finds better things to do on fall Saturdays.

          I’m finding myself giving up because I’ve seen this same horrible football for the better part of my life.

          • I was going to say ‘but then we wouldn’t get to see the better teams in the country.’ Then I realized we can still play the body bag games against the Ohio States etc and make aome sweet cash

      • I’ve been saying that for like a decade. People get so mad.

        I can’t speak for anyone else, but it’s just a stupid idea. We’re one of the four founding members of the conference. If it weren’t for OSU, Nikegon would be in the Big West after they ratted on the pay-for-play scandal (something they did themselves).

        The Pac is an educational coalition first. Athletics are secondary. And football, in all its sucky glory, is only a fraction of that secondary idea.

        But hey… if we go to the MWC, Rueck would win the conference every year, as would baseball.

        So there’s that.

  13. Decided to go out, get some sun and exercise, and run some errands after the half instead of sticking around for more crappy football. That’s what I call good game management!

      • Scotty benefited from having nobody on the roster when he showed up. That’s a huge plus for building a program, including a built-in excuse for a couple years. It’s really easy to recruit when you can honestly sit in a PSA’s living room and tell them they will start on day 1.

        If Scotty would have taken over a full roster, he would probably have a .500 record as of now. The team would be showing improvement, but he wouldn’t have stacked the roster with primo players from top to bottom like he did.

  14. I’ve said before and I’ll say it again. We need to recruit first and foremost linemen on both sides of the ball. Everything else depends on it.

  15. I’m not so down
    Offensive performance was horrific and that dragged the entire team down.
    It wasn’t play calling but execution.
    Blount Missed many open receivers it’s not funny

  16. Ducks look better than Stanford so far, too. Great day to be a Beav?

    I don’t believe in their HC at all, but maybe they have the talent to overcome him.

  17. Also, I was stupid to pick the Beavs. I knew they wouldn’t win, but I wanted to believe it. What’s happening to me!? I’m becoming one of the hope and dreamers. Pettibonehead for the win with his prediction. They found every which way to fuck up the game. I got Charlie Browned.

  18. Hard reality is that we just aren’t going to be able to compete with Pac-12 teams with this roster, especially on D. At this point, every opposing coach can take a look at our film and see that while we’ve got some weapons and ability on offense, a lot of our players on defense would struggle to make the 2-deep on a FCS roster. It’s not an overly complicated week of game planning. No matter of coaching or scheme will be able to overcome those glaring deficiencies in personnel and ability.

    But not all doom and gloom for me, it was an ugly performance but there are individuals you can see development and growth in. Biggest challenge will be in keeping them playing hard against athletes that so clearly out-class them throughout the Pac12 schedule, that took a toll today and it’s only gonna get way worse.

  19. The offense actually needed Luton for relief pitcher today. Blount looked decent early on, but got folded up on a scramble sack some time in the late first quarter. He didn’t look sharp thereafter. Coaches weren’t ready to throw out Colletto, so Blount just had to gut it out and he seemed foggy most of the game. Blount looked more exhausted on the empty 17 play drive than the AZ defense did. Jefferson looks explosive but he needs to have peirce back for a 1-2 punch. Jefferson will be a great back but isn’t ready like Quizz to carry the entire load. He is getting shelled like Nall was last year.

    The defense played 9 vs 11, assuming Tate may run. They maybe kept a spy on him and Aydon just occupied a spot in front of the center and let the back run past his hip the entire game. Aydon can’t figure out how to use his arms to tackle while the back is within reach. Pretty sad if there isn’t someone quicker to replace him. DL is the biggest need. Captain Obvious…

  20. The Ducks have another Heisman publicity campaign with Herbert. Remember when Jacquizz was awesome and the Beavs did nothing to promote him? Yeah…

  21. Defensive Line needs some more talent. Looking at the current commits next year, 4 out of 11 are on the DL which is nice. None on the OL. I hope they can get some more talent on both lines or it’s gonna be the same thing next year.

    Gebbia is huge upgrade over our current QBs. But it won’t matter if we don’t have a line to protect him (since we lose 3 of our seniors on the OL).

  22. Anyone have a better explanation of those pylon calls on the Stanford/Duck game?

    Duck runner hits the pylon with his foot as he angles into the endzone but never touches the ground in the endzone, only lands out of bounds:No touchdown
    Bryce Love avoids the pylon and lands out of bounds, never touches the endzone and lands out of bounds: Touchdown

    Both runners had the ball outside of the pylon as they passed into the line of the endzone.

    • The first is easy. The Duck hit the pylon, which is considered oob. So where the ball is when he touches oob is where it’s spotted.

      Love’s TD shouldn’t have been one, but it was called so on the field. And since there’s no camera angle good enough to tell if the ball is outside or over the pylon as it crosses the goal line, replay can only go with the call on the field. If the multi-billion dollar business that is football would invest in proper camera coverage on the most important part of the field, we wouldn’t have what I think was a blown call there.

      If it’s any consolation to Duck fan, they probably would have played poor D on 1st and goal also. So that blown call wasn’t so bad. It’s not like Shaw’s teams snap the ball to the 20 on 1st and goal from the 1.

  23. oregon/Stanford has been entertaining. ducks had this thing in the bag and got excitable while stanford played slow and steady and it’s overtime.

    • Because he’s a decent coach, and college football sucks.

      I have no clue what you all thought was funny about Herm other than his recruiting gaffes. But when he pulled in a good class on half the time, you kept making fun of him for some reason.

      You’re the fool now.

  24. Got to figure out a way to push pat casey into the AD position he would get the old side in reser rebuilt in 5 years max, only way the football team gets turned around in the next 10 years. Need a twitter campaign with thousands of email and letters sent to ed ray might get it rolling.

  25. Oregon has some beef on the lines. Very concerned about the Civil War ending up like it did last year.

    Glad to see them choke away this one.

  26. Wow.

    I don’t know if Willis can be broken of his habit of shooting gaps too quickly. At least this year he’s early in the right gaps. But his angles still belie his timing.

  27. I’ve been slightly higher on Blount all year but I think that has changed. The line got beat today but Blount has a tendency to not stay in the pocket and finish with pressure. Luton did that last week much better than Blount. There were multiple times that Blount pulled the ball down when he still had time to make the throw. I couldn’t see the coverage but with Arizona’s play this year, it would be surprising.

  28. The new redshirt rule this year(4 games being played while still redshirting) has made the whole transfer process more interesting.
    Just yesterday, oregon RB Taj Griffin announced after the stanford win he intends to transfer. By leaving now, he will get to call this his redshirt year and next year he will be a grad transfer and be able to play anywhere. I guess he didnt like having the freshman take his starting spot

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