As proposed in the prior thread, let’s end this Luton debate or at least have some fun with it by objectively grading him out this weekend. The opponent is a good one. They’re not an elite team and not Cal Poly or UCLA, either, so it should be fair. We can even do it for a few games. Okay, the Luton scale being proposed:
5= Hit in stride or only where the receiver can catch it. Dropped or caught.
4= Thrown where the receiver can catch it, but no chance of running after. Diving or sideline catch going out of bounds. Dropped or Caught.
3= Ball thrown low or high. Player has to kneel, jump, dive, or comeback to ball to make catch.
2= Ball thrown behind receiver or ball thrown into coverage were DB can make a play with possibility of interception. Any 3rd down that results in a punt.
1= Ball throw wild, high or low. Not including throwing ball away because of good coverage.
0= Interception, fumble, tip ball at LOS, or non-coverage sack.
Any modifications needed let me know and give the justification.
If we debate a pass is a 5 or a 4 we can split the baby and give it a 4.5, or we can do majority rules. This could be fun and interactive, and maybe both sides will learn something.
My accustomed spot #1.
Where would a “4” level throw on a 3rd and long that only goes 3 yards belong?
Technically it’s a 4, but it also kills the drive so 4 seems too generous
Good question. Seems a 2 to me.
Open to input on nuances like this.
Here are my “fixes” or “Alterations” from BlackBandits grading system:
5= hit in stride or only where the receiver can catch it. Dropped or caught
4= throw in front of receiver, receiver makes catch, but no YAC. WR makes a sideline catch going out of bounds(minus 2 minute drill and stick routes).Dropped or Caught.
3= Player has to make an effort back to the ball to make catch OR has to jump to make catch.
2= thrown behind receiver or into coverage where defender touches it before receiver does; check down or short dig route thrown on a 3rd and long
1= arrant off balance throw, over thrown receiver. Not including throwing ball away because of good coverage.
0= interception, except tipped ball by WR OR tipped at LOS.
What if he dumps it off to a back on 3rd and long and the RB gets a first?
We need to iron out 3rd downs.
I see your concern. I would say any 3rd down pass play that results in a punt or field goal is a 2?
I’d say this is a 4 or 5 because it was the right decision. Tom Brady does this all the time… can’t fault the QB for making his reads, recognizing nothing is open down field and hitting the check down for a 1st down. In fact, against Utah, I could see us needing to do this a bunch
Successfully dumping off to a RB? Why argue about something that doesn’t happen?
I added fumble as a 0. Anyone have issue with this?
What if the fumble gets kicked forward by the opponent and Gus Lavaka recovers it in the end zone? Touchdown Beavers!!!!
Utah is ranked #15 in the country so I wouldn’t be too quick to say they aren’t an elite team.
They’re good but they don’t have any elite wins. USC is not USC this year.
We can do it over several weeks to average out opponent. Utah, Cal, AZ gives a good sample.
This analysis reminds me of the Brady Quinn lovers in Cleveland who wanted DA out so they could see their boy play. Ahh the good old days of arguing with people who said certain TDs shouldn’t count for the QBs stats because the receiver had to dive for it.
They should count but not be a 5.
Yeah not sure this is going to show anything? Even if numbers are good or bad. But it is strange that Luton was added to national watchlist for best qb given he looks bad. Just read and was reminded that the only turnover the beavers have on the season is by Gebbia against Cal Poly.
None of this has anything to do with the scale.
As I said above, I don’t know what this scale would show? Say he gets a 3.8 for the game? What does that mean? Say the perfect throw for that play is the receiver needs to catch it jumping. He gets a low grade? We already have something more reliable and more comparable and it is called QBR and already lists Luton as 3rd best in the pac-12. Unless you want to do this for every quarterback I have no idea what this is going to show.
If it’s stupid or pointless we won’t do it.
It’s a proposition and a way to have some fun.
Does QBR factor in the WR having to make a diving catch, throwing short of the sticks, etc? Honest question I don’t follow football stats.
>Does QBR factor in the WR having to make a diving catch, throwing short of the sticks, etc? Honest question I don’t follow football stats.
QBR is pure numbers. Attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns and interceptions are the only things considered. So, a diving catch or a ball thrown short would be reflected in a lower yard per attempt number, but it’s not specifically tracked.
In the event of a throw that doesn’t reach the sticks, can you really blame the QB if the receiver ran the route too shallow? Not in my opinion. A lot of shallow crossing routes are deliberately thrown short of the line to gain so the receiver can run after the catch. If he hits the only guy that’s open and the defense makes a great play on the ball, it’s not really a reflection of the QB being shitty, it’s just a nice play by the defense.
I guess it would depend if the WR ran short of the sticks or the throw was bad and the WR had to make some type of adjustment that made him short of the sticks.
If the WR runs short give Luton whatever points for his pass. Eg. if it’s a good throw but not in stride to get the 1st then give him a 4.
Personally I lean to your first possibility.
However, if your proposal goes ahead I certainly won’t mind as I suspect the results and subsequent discussion could be quite entertaining.
I question that this will result in “having fun”
Haha. We shall see.
Keep it civil, people!
Jesus debbie downer, it’s for fun. And a 3.8 would mean he made better choices and played a good game over all. 3.8 sounds about right for the UCLA game.
Sure, if it’s purely for fun and there are no actual conclusions taken from it (which there will be) than completely fine. Just making sure this scale isn’t used as some “objective tool to put an end to the Luton debate”
The only thing that will put an end to the Luton debate is the NCAA not granting him a 28th year.
“if it’s purely for fun and there are no actual conclusions …”
I read that as ‘no actual concussions’ I was wondering what the hell was going on
How are throw away passes dealt with, e.g. when forced out of the pocket, scrambling, or everyone’s covered?
Seems neutral. Maybe ignore it or give it an average score (2.5).
Rushing yards and sacks.
Ignore and just focus on passes?
it’s like coding, make small adjustments/tweaks and see what comes out messed up. then fix those issues and keep working the code until it’s where you want it to be.
Rushing no, sacks yes. But sacks can be his fault or a blockers fault. If a blocker misses an assignment it’s a 2.5. If he holds on to the ball for no reason other then to lose yardage then it’s a 0.
Angry, have people vote right after each passing play. You may need to moderate the play and description, the judges vote, and the score is given….done! Next play. I look forward to each debate!
I think we need to also use a time stamp from the game as well as down and distance so that if there is a duplicate submission we can tell which one to count, etc.
I would add in a grade for was it the right throw to make in that situation? If he’s got to check down on a 3rd and long vs risking a long throw into coverage, then that’s a plus.
Should grade the other QB for comparison’s sake.
Is the 1-10 scale still ok for rating cheerleaders?
GA would grade the cheerleaders by “right now or maybe later”.
my scale goes to 11
As games are compared—Should be normalized somehow with the total number of passes. Guy could go 10/10 with all ten completions being “5”, and his average would be a 5 for the game but doesn’t necessarily compare correctly to a 30/40 type game with a lot of dink and dunk type passes. Need some statisticians to raise their hands and give input, so we are comparing apples to apples from game to game — just thinking of the long view. We’ll get er figured out!
For reference, there’s a similar system called PFF.
https://www.pff.com/pff-player-grades
And Luton is ranked #18, one spot ahead of Justin Herbert.
https://www.pff.com/news/college-pff-rankings-starting-quarterback-rankings-for-2019
So what you’re saying is, we don’t have to obsess over Luton anymore and just enjoy the game? Sounds great to me!
You seem to have way too much stress in your life to worry about an arbitrary grading system that has no bearing on anything other then an add wrinkle into game day threads on this one particular site. Why would it matter if it brings up added discussion within these threads? And who cares if luton dicks the dog tomorrow and gets a bad grade from us. What’s going to happen? Summary execution? lynching from a goal post at Reser? No. Nothing’s going to happen, and luton will be starting next Saturday, stop stressing.
He seems nervous the QB isn’t as good as his numbers.
No, it’s the fact the Luton has done just fine and people are still dragging their feet that Gebbia is the answer to the point of creating this whole made up scoring system that will reveal nothing other than trying to say Luton actually isn’t that good. Just give it up already, he’s doing just fine and better than most of us thought. But some people can’t admit their wrong, ever, and it shows. Time would be better spent doing a scoring system of hicks-onu or kipper.
I get the feeling you’re somehow related to Luton. I mean someone who complains as much as you do about a goofy rating system has to have some ulterior motives. Who. Gives. A. Fuck. why are you so concerned about what other people decide to do on this site? If you dont like the rating system suggests some changes or better yet stop bitching. It’s for fun for fucks sake.
I have enjoyed this site for long enough that’s it worth the time to point out when it’s started to go over the deep end. I’m the one saying who cares, let’s enjoy some beaver sports discussion, but enough with trying to prove some player is bad to the point of creating a whole scoring system and judging every single play. Just think again before swearing back at me about who is crazy.
It’s going to be a rough weekend for you then, my friend, because the Luton Scale is going to be in play!
Hopefully Luton does well. If he grades out at 2.2 from the sound of things we might have people jumping off bridges.
“I have enjoyed this site for long enough that’s it worth the time to point out when it’s started to go over the deep end. ”
Valid point but think of this as helping keep some people’s interest in Beaver football, when there hasn’t been a lot to keep people interested in Beaver football…Sort of like fantasy football does for the NFL
The problem is the people who have been rating Luton are relatives of his… Pretty sad, he has cousins everywhere
What is that not true?
You mean grandchildren.
Have you ever played football angry? Or watched? Lol…
Back shoulder throws show great trust and chemistry and when executed right are damn hard to defend. How’s that rate on your scoring system?
If it’s 3rd and 8 and the only thing open he can find is someone barely open… and he has to throw it to a spot where someone makes a great catch or it goes incomplete, that’s not necessarily a bad play…
And again, nobody making Luton out to be a 1st round pick in the draft..
Hey a@a did you know my imaginary friend is named Pat Casey also?
He has a sock monkey named Pat Casey. Which trumps your imaginary friend.
Angry@Angry… Don’t you understand? The Angry nut huggers are not too keen with the whole logic thing… they dispel that logic until it’s works in their favor… A lot like the media these days… what happened to your own opinion? Apparently we can’t have that anymore, cause the true beav fans know better? Give me a break
Anyone hear a noise?
This spread is way too high.
First off, anyone getting their panties in a bunch about this grading scale thing is either a relative of Luton or they are a freaking pansy. At least it makes the game a bit more interesting. Second, there are multiple “sides” when it comes to Jake Luton being our QB. But I think you can boil it down to the following:
1. People who think Luton gives us our best chance to win games this season.
2. People who think Luton is a fine QB in general, but would prefer we give Gebbia the snaps this year so he has a head start for next year.
3. People who plain think Gebbia is a better QB and he would likely win us more games this year.
Some people may be a combination of these. Regardless, nobody is going to prove anyone wrong or right about this…unless Luton gets injured. That’s the only way Gebbia is going to start this year, and it’s the only way we’ll know if the 1s or the 3s are right.
What would we grade a Seth Collins hospital ball?
LOL
Depends on who’s going to the hospital.
-3?
Anyone want to volunteer to track the passing plays?
I’ll be commenting from on my phone, which is way too slow to type up live game action.
Just use a spreadsheet app or notes app to track
Won’t we need to do atleast 10 qbs to get any kind of relevance? Were just going to end up with a number. Seems like to do this right we need to do 10 qbs off of the watch list or something. Even better would be every QB playing a specific defense all season.
Were going to need a highschool nerd with infinite time and no life who really loves some team on the Beaver schedule. That should make up like half the UW fanbase so shouldn’t be too hard.
Bingo.
Pittman is the only reason Gebbia put up the numbers he did in high school… he had 4 really good receivers, they made his numbers better… He’d be a two star without them
I’m sure Saban knows a little more about recruit evaluation then you do. just a hunch.
Coaches can be wrong.. They are wrong 90% of time just ask Angry, he’ll back me up ;)
By all means please post a link to that. I’d love to read where angry said coaches are wrong 90% of the time.
I’d like to read that, too.
You guys hear something?
Mario showcasing his stupidity going for it on 4th and 5 at the 20.
Every time I watch this guy he’s doing something stupid.
I don’t understand why everybody creams their jeans over Herbert. He seems to be a serviceable/ decent PAC-12 QB nothing more. One could easily argue this season he and Luton are on the same level.
So you’re saying Luton is a Heisman candidate?
Lol no I’m saying Herbert has no business being a Heisman candidate
Herbert is off the Heisman short list. Statistically Luton is doing better.
You and those stats ;)…. Luton doesn’t look near as good, ignore any numbers comparing them…. Based off of looks, Herbert is the bonafide heisman candidate
Duck fans agree with you.
PHIL STEELE REPORT (WEEK 6):
#27 Utah at #52 Oregon State
LTH (‘16) the Utes jumped out to a 12-0 HT lead in wet and windy conditions. The Beavers cut the deficit to 12-7 heading into the 4Q, but an 8 yd TD run w/3:18 left for Utah clinched the victory with OSU trailing 19-7 before OSU went 65/7 for a TD with 1:40 left and the backdoor (+7, 19-14). Oregon St has lost their past 3 matchups against the Utes by an avg of just 9 ppg. Utah has one of the nation’s best Dline’s going against an OLine that allowed an FBS high 49 sacks last year and loses 3 starters. They have only allowed just 7 sacks so far this year. Whittingham is 20-8 SU off a bye and 18-10 ATS. Jonathan Smith is 0-6-1 ATS as a HD while Utah is 7-5-1 ATS as an AF the last 4 years. The Utes are allowing just 54 (2.5) ypg rush and Oregon St is at its best when able to run the ball. Oregon St is a surprising +35 ypg despite their losing record but Utah is +177 ypg. I said all offseason that this years’ Beaver squad is 14 points better than last years and last week they went on the road and trounced a reeling UCLA team 48-31. They did lose to Okla St by 16 at
home and trailed Stanford 21-0 at home. Whittingham is magic (love his bowl record) with extra time to prepare and Utah gets a solid road win.
FORECAST: UTAH 37 OREGON STATE 20
POSITION BY POSITION EDGES:
WHEN UTAH HAS THE BALL
Utah QB/WR vs Oregon State DB’s: UTAH +1.68
Utah RB’s vs Oregon State LB’s: UTAH +1.41
Utah OL vs Oregon State DL: UTAH +1.00
WHEN OREGON STATE HAS THE BALL:
Oregon State QB/WR vs UTAH DB’s: UTAH +0.97
Oregon State RB’s vs UTAH LB’s: UTAH +0.15
Oregon State OL vs UTAH DL: UTAH +0.69
MISCELLANEOUS:
Special Teams: ORST +1.21
Kicking: UTAH +0.71
Coaching: UTAH +2.40
POSITIONAL EDGE AWARDED TO: UTAH +7.81
Team Stats (UTAH-ORST)
Projected Rushing: 224-123
Projected Passing: 231-216
Projected Yardage Total: 454-339
Projected Final Score: 33-21
Experience Rankings:54-7
Team Schedule Strength: 49-50
Las Vegas Line: Utah by 14
Las Vegas Total: 59.5 Points
+/- Ratings: Utah by 11.0
Game Grade: Utah by 9.1
Computer Yards: Utah 454-339
Computer Points: Utah 33-21
Do we play Colorado this year? They look very beatable
Right? Or the Ducks are finally putting things together.
Looks like a mix of the two.
Colorado’s D looks like UCLA.
Yes. They suck.
Nope, this year we get Utah instead. Luck o’ da Beavs!
I thought Steven Montez used to be pretty good. Didn’t that guy light us up when we played them in Boulder a few years ago?
That’s not exactly a valid unit of measure.
Good point.
Way better than Luton! Based off of film! No brainer
It’s like he’s gotten every bad bounce for the year in this game
Hiring Lindgren was a solid move by Smith.
I think it’s time to start rooting for Avalos to get a Head Coach job somewhere.
Avalos has done a great job with their D. Agree, I look forward to them returning to the days of Brady Hoke
Montez is no good because we took his OC.
Did this new coach keep some of the previous staff?
I struggled picking this game in the CBS pool because of Montez. He was great vs the Beavs and that’s all I knew about him…I got buff’d.
Montez was great because if the play broke down he’d fuck you running. Whoever this new OC is pissed that away and made his team predictable. Plenty of times he could have easily taken off for positive yards/1st downs.
Yeah I was expecting him to run around and make plays but saw none of that.
I don’t watch any NCAA football outside the Beavs so I’m catching up on some of these teams with my sick/downtime. Shocking how bad the Buffs looked! Ducks D looked pretty legit. Mario still looked like an idiot who just out-athleted ($) CU.
according to SP+ the Buffs had a higher ranked offense and a lower ranked defense than the Beavs.
For the Luton scale, how about adding an A, B, or C after each number depending on the pass protection. “A” can be for a pass with no pressure on the qb, “B” for a pass under duress, and “C” for a pass under heavy pressure. This would be relatively easy to do and would add an important element to the grading scale.
We can do that. We’ll see how it goes.
Some improve might be necessary since so many potential outcomes.
Is the Quack defense that good or have they been playing shitty offenses? On paper, they’re one of the statistical best in the nation.
I’m not sure. CU looked horrible. Ducks did look fast and swarming.
They haven’t been very impressive until that game.
I think that angry, a@a, chuck the mouth, osumensalami and anyone else still arguing over Luton should just have a rap battle to decide who’s right.
Winner gets a Jake Luton sock monkey.
You guys are overthinking this whole quarterback thing.
The quarterback position only has one job, position the offensive unit into a good punting position.
First down pitch right for three yards, second down pitch left for three yards, third down quarterback keeper for two or minus two. Forth down punt. In the unlikely event of long yardage on third down the quarterback chucks it downfield in the general direction of a guy wearing the same color jersey.
Worked wonders for me!
Can somebody develop a “Lutonometer” to display in the feed in the upper right? Make it look like a tachometer with black face, orange numerals and dial…beaver logo in the middle. Have a “orange line” instead of red line….
Crowd predictions for today? The start time is decent, and hopefully doesn’t deter attendance. Goodt weather…Utah is ranked. Think they hit 36K? 40K?
Looks like Utah has been playing some pretty good run defense. I think Pierce needs to still get a good workload. Have some patience, he’ll get a couple of second level runs. Jefferson playing today?
I am really interested to see how this Oregon State offensive line does today.
The SLT writes about how the Beavs could be challenging, and question whether Utah’s “star CB” will get assigned to Hodgins. They note receiver production drops off a lot after Hodgins, and that Jefferson and Pierce will have to be respected:
https://www.sltrib.com/sports/utah-utes/2019/10/11/saturdays-game-oregon/
Hodgins has their attention, something that will continue from here on out given his impressive numbers. Time for the other receivers to step it up and reliably catch the ball, still hoping for some Musgrave snaps too:
https://www.sltrib.com/sports/utah-utes/2019/10/07/utah-secondary-gears-up/
Gotta wonder what pettibonehead has to say about the author of those two pieces.
Retro Benny Helmet today looks good.
https://twitter.com/BeaverFootball?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Eprofile%3ABeavRecruiting&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fangrybeavs.com%2Ffootball%2F14958
As part of this uniform “upgrade” did they ditch the white and orange helmets? Black only now?
Lotta “Retro Benny” showing up lately; the face of homecoming and featured on trophies for a Beav Golf tourney. Maybe those ideation folks are catching on!
Seeing it on the Twitter feed on stuff the staff is sending to kids. I like it.
Maybe Smith is taking baby steps toward the Pat Casey approach of eliminating the beav-shark from the football program
Zack Moss upgraded to probable.
Beavs chances downgraded to doubtful.
Link?
https://twitter.com/SportsInsights/status/1183034478513528835
This GaTech QB makes Luton look like Tom Brady.
Didn’t Paul Johnson retire? First year without the option. They’re awful, lost to FCS The Citadel earlier.
And yet he nearly saved my CBS pick on the last play of the game. Drat!
I lost on that one, too. GaTech +17.5 and they lost by 18, having gone for and missed a 2pt try earlier. Vegas nailed that one.
I’m hoping to see a game-plan to challenge the Utah frontline with a running game. GA never even tried to run on these guys and pretty much conceeded a one dimensional offense that got Connor Blount nearly snapped in half.
Even if the Dline is imposing, be creative and persistence about keeping them off balance and don’t completely rely on Luton to pass on 1 and 10, 2 and 10, 3rd and 15 etc.
GA and another one of his bizarre episodes. Wasn’t he babbling even before the game that he wasn’t going to try to run on Utah? Then he would talk in pressers about how he wasn’t too involved in the offense.
May beg the question, how involved is JS in the defense? At least he doesn’t yak about lack of involvement. For the record, I’ve liked Tibs from the beginning but he still has a lot to prove to many here (justifiably so).
To ohio’s point about Beavs running game plan; I’d like to see more Luton under center and mix in a few fly sweeps. Screens too.
Luton u/c should equal quick handoffs to AP. More so than JJ, AP doesn’t spend time surveying the D line, seems starting him 5+ yds deep isn’t the best way to attack Utes D. JMHO
Chuck_the_Mouth, who said this weeks picks were the easiest yet, is now 0 for 3 to start the week.
So your saying he is perfect. :)
Going to the game. I have an extra ticket if somebody wants it.
Slick Willie down 42-0 in the 3rd.
Who cares? He’s not even the Beavs ex coach
Biletnikoff Award
Someone please post the link to cast a vote for Isaiah Hodgins
https://biletnikoffaward.com/fan-vote
Here ya go…
https://biletnikoffaward.com/fan-vote
echoooo…
thanks, can’t figure out how to cast a vote………..color me old (and digitally challenged!)
Select Hodgins radio button, scroll down, push “vote” button
Got it, had to turn off blocking. Thanks for the help OJ !!
There are like ten Romneys on the field in the BYU game. Lol.
Romney just threw to Romney. No joke.
Game thread up. The Luton Scale might not be in play unless someone else can do it. Too sick here.